Sa ihan, Ahmed Yusu
A icle
A s udy on he e ec o impo ed whea p ices on Tü kiye's
pas a expo s: ARDL app oach
Ekonomika
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Vilnius Uni e si y P ess
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Sa ihan, Ahmed Yusu (2024) : A s udy on he e ec o impo ed whea p ices
on Tü kiye's pas a expo s: ARDL app oach, Ekonomika, ISSN 2424-6166, Vilnius Uni e si y P ess,
Vilnius, Vol. 103, Iss. 2, pp. 45-65,
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Ekonomika ISSN 1392-1258 eISSN 2424-6166
2024, ol. 103(2), pp. 45–65 DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.15388/Ekon.2024.104.2.3
A S udy on he E ec o Impo ed
Whea P ices on Tü kiye’s Pas a Expo s:
ARDL App oach
Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan
Bandı ma Onyedi Eylül Uni e si y, Tu key
Email: [email p o ec ed]
ORCID: h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0001-7119-9852
Abs ac . Tü kiye has possessed signi ican ag icul u al oppo uni ies h oughou i s his o y. Al hough he
e ec i e u iliza ion o hese oppo uni ies is a subjec o deba e oday, he coun y s ill plays a signi ican ole
in he global ade o some ag icul u al p oduc s. When discussions abou Tü kiye’s expo s a e examined, a
common complain is he ex e nal dependency o he expo indus y. Howe e , he e a e also deba es abou he
diminishing ag icul u al ad an ages ha ha e been p esen since he pas . When hese discussions a e b ough
oge he , he ade o ce ain p ocessed ag icul u al p oduc s, whose aw ma e ials a e ag icul u al p oduc s,
also becomes a no ewo hy esea ch opic due o a simila impo dependency. In his s udy, an analysis was
conduc ed using ime se ies and he ARDL model o in es iga e whe he he e is a ela ionship be ween Tü -
kiye’s pas a expo quan i y, as one o he leading pas a expo e ’s globally, and he p ices o whea impo s
om Uk aine, Russia, and Bulga ia. Also obus ness checks enhanced he analyzes by employing FMOLS
and DOLS me hods. The esea ch indings indica e a ia ions in he impac o whea p ices om coun y o
coun y on he quan i y o pas a expo ed by Tü kiye. Recommenda ions ega ding he impo ance o whea
p oduc ion in Tü kiye a e also p o ided as a esul o he esea ch.
Keywo ds: Expo -Impo Analyzes, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS
In oduc ion
The clima e c isis and he sus ainabili y agenda ha e led o inc eased discussions on ag i-
cul u al p oduc ion and consump ion. While high- ech p oduc s domina e he lion’s sha e
o ade in he cu en global economic sys em, he inhe en necessi y o ood in human li e
is making he impo ance o ood mo e p onounced wi h each passing day du ing global
c ises. E en s such as he COVID-19 pandemic (Ha ipoğlu, 2021), he Russia-Uk aine wa
(Yengina , 2022), and he ongoing Is ael-Pales ine con lic unde sco e he signi icance o
ood supply. Pa icula ly in Tü kiye, he sun lowe oil c isis and ood p ice in la ion du ing
he pandemic highligh some ag icul u al issues ha he coun y needs o ca e ully add ess
(Gündüz, 2021). F om he pas o he p esen , Tü kiye has aced challenges in main ain-
ing i s i le as an ag icul u al pa adise (Aksoylu & Ka aalp-O han, 2022). Fac o s such as
Recei ed: 22/03/2024. Re ised: 13/04/2024. Accep ed: 29/04/2024
Copy igh © 2024 Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan Published by Vilnius Uni e si y P ess
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s un es ic ed use,
dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed.
Con en s lis s a ailable a Vilnius Uni e si y P ess
ISSN 1392-1258 eISSN 2424-6166 Ekonomika. 2024, ol. 103(2)
46
apidly inc easing popula ion, global mig a ions, ine icien use o ag icul u al land, and a
dec ease in i iga ion a eas o a ious easons unde mine Tü kiye’s claim o sel -su iciency
in ag icul u e. In addi ion o hese, mo e o he ac o s can be seen such as ag icul u al sub-
sidies and u al-u ban mig a ion (Sugozu e al., 2017; Tasci e al., 2023). Wi h hese issues
un o una ely claiming o be an ag icul u al hea en is losing i s alidi y in oday’s con ex .
The p esence o p oduc s like chickpeas, beans, and len ils o igina ing om he Ame icas,
such as Mexico and Canada, on he shel es o ma ke s indica es ha Tu kish ci ies, which
we e once associa ed wi h he p oduc ion o hese p oduc s, a e now alling sho in e ms
o p oduc ion (TMO, 2021). Especially len il impo is kind o new o Tü kiye (Gulumse ,
2016). Apa om hese examples, Tü kiye occupies a dis inc i e posi ion in e ms o b ead
consump ion compa ed o o he coun ies a ound he wo ld (Dolekoglu e . al., 2014). B ead
and a ious dough p oduc s hold a signi ican place wi hin he basic die a y habi s o he
Tu kish popula ion (Koca and Yazici, 2014). In ac , b ead is conside ed a sac ed blessing
in Tü kiye. Tu kish women, e en wi hou he necessi y o local bake ies o indus ial b ead
p oduc ion acili ies, c ea e di e en ypes o b ead when hey ha e access o lou . The
majo i y o he Tu kish popula ion consumes b ead o dough p oduc s in e e y meal o he
day. This si ua ion also highligh s he demand o he undamen al aw ma e ial, whea . The
sou ce o whea is o g ea impo ance o Tü kiye a his poin . The able below shows he
coun ies om which Tü kiye impo ed he mos whea in 2022 (ITC, 2024a).
Table 1. Whea Expo e s o Tü kiye (2022)
Expo e Coun y Value Impo ed
(USD Thousand) Sha e o Tü kiye’s Impo s %
Russia 2,395,449 71,4
Uk aine 719,333 21,4
B azil 52,825 1,6
Mexico 34,957 1
Bulga ia 32,794 1
Kazakhs an 26,987 0,8
Moldo a 23,780 0,7
A gen ina 22,520 0,7
Sy ia 15,009 0,4
La ia 14,982 0,4
These coun ies accoun o mo e han 99% o Tü kiye’s whea impo s. Addi ionally
sec o s in Tü kiye ha elies on whea o sus enance is no limi ed o b ead o pas y
alone. Tü kiye is one o he leading expo e s o pas a wo ldwide. The ease wi h which
pas a can be p epa ed o consump ion has made i a uni e sally belo ed ood, ele a ing
i o he s a us o a signi ican p oduc globally. I is wo h emphasizing ha , in e ms o
po en ial ma ke s, his impo an p oduc knows no bounds. The able below shows he
coun ies ha expo ed he mos pas a in 2022 (ITC, 2024b).
Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan. A S udy on he E ec o Impo ed Whea P ices on Tü kiye’s Pas a Expo s: ARDL App oach
47
Table 2. Leade Pas a Expo e s o Wo ld (2022)
Expo e Coun y Value Expo ed
(USD Thousand) Sha e o Wo ld’s Impo s %
I aly 4,169,527 28,7
China 1,195,235 8,2
Sou h Ko ea 978,361 6,7
Tü kiye 964,539 6,6
Thailand 663,258 4,6
Vie Nam 464,706 3,2
USA 438,995 3
Belgium 412,920 2,8
Ge many 401,256 2,8
Ne he lands 363,691 2,5
Table 2 shows ha Tü kiye anks ou h among he wo ld’s op pas a expo ing
coun ies. Howe e , iewing he pas a ade as a comple ely p o i able and e o less
en u e would be an e oneous app oach. This is because pas a, being a low- alue-added
p oduc , can be p oduced and expo ed by many coun ies as can be seen om he Table 2
abo e. Though inding new expo ma ke s o many p oduc s may be challenging, p oduc s
like pas a can easily en e any ma ke based on cus ome p e e ences.
1. Theo e ical F amewo k
The c ucial issue he e is whe he one coun y possesses he ac o s o p oduce pas a e i-
cien ly. Hecksche (1919) and Ohlin’s (1933) Fac o Endowmen Theo y sugges ha a
coun y has a compa a i e ad an age in expo s based on i s supe io i y in he p oduc ion
ac o s i possesses. When we look a he example o Tü kiye, which has been conside ed
h oughou his s udy, i is expec ed ha Tü kiye indeed has a his o ical ad an age in ag i-
cul u al p oduc s. Tü kiye, wi h i s p oduc i e plains, is known as an impo an cen e o
whea . Howe e , in con empo a y imes, Tü kiye, despi e i s his o ical ad an age in whea
p oduc ion, is no sel -su icien and eso s o impo ing whea om ab oad. In o he wo ds,
Tü kiye pu chases p oduc ion ac o s, such as whea , om o he coun ies o use hem in
di e en s ages o he p oduc ion p ocess. Examining Tü kiye’s impo s, i can be obse ed
ha he majo i y o whea is pu chased om Uk aine, Russia, and Bulga ia (see Table 1).
This de ia ion om sel -su iciency in whea p oduc ion aligns wi h he cen al p emise o
he Fac o Endowmen Theo y, indica ing ha coun ies may engage in in e na ional ade
o acqui e he necessa y p oduc ion ac o s hey lack domes ically.
In his s udy, as he a iables expec ed o in luence Tü kiye’s pas a expo s a e no limi ed
o impo ed aw ma e ial p ices alone, he e is a need o a heo y o explain he ela ionship
be ween exchange a es and expo s. The Ma shall-Le ne Condi ion, which sugges s ha
inc eases in exchange a es will boos coun ies’ expo s (Bahmani e al., 2013), o e s a
second heo e ical ounda ion o his s udy. In ac , he o igin o his heo y is based on
Robinson’s (1937) wo k, and i has been s eng hened by c i icism om Hi schman (1949),
ISSN 1392-1258 eISSN 2424-6166 Ekonomika. 2024, ol. 103(2)
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d awing a en ion o issues such as p ice elas ici y. Howe e , undamen ally, as men ioned
abo e, i is possible o conclude ha inc eases in exchange a es will lead o highe expo s.
Addi ionally, acco ding o he p ice e ec app oach, i can be a gued ha inc eases in ex-
change a es will encou age expo e s o inc ease sales o ea n mo e income, hus achie ing
an inc ease in he coun y’s expo s a he mac o le el (Zamani e al., 2013).
As seen in his s udy, he Fac o Endowmen Theo y, an impo an in e na ional ade
heo y and Ma shall-Le ne Condi ion will o m he ounda ion o he esea ch. Be o e del -
ing in o he me hodology sec ion, simila s udies conduc ed globally will also be add essed.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
Fi s ly, i is impo an o no e ha any p oduc aded in he wo ld is e e ed o as a com-
modi y. In his con ex , s udies ela ed o ac o s in luencing commodi y expo s will be
examined. Th ough hese s udies, a iables a ec ing he expo quan i y o a commodi y
will be e ealed. Subsequen ly, esea ch on pas a ade wo ldwide, especially in coun ies
like I aly, and ac o s in luencing pas a ade will be discussed. In he nex s age, s udies
on he ela ionship be ween pas a and whea in Tü kiye will be examined. Las s age o
li e a u e e iew will hos he s udies abou exchange a e and expo ela ionship. This
app oach aims o p o ide a be e unde s anding o why such a s udy is needed be o e
mo ing on o he me hodology sec ion.
Nikonenko e al. (2020) s a e ha he ola ili y in aw ma e ial p ices a ec s he expo s
o commodi y-expo ing coun ies in wo ld ade. Simila ly, he e a e empi ical s udies
ha examine di e en coun ies o di e en commodi ies (McG ego , 2017; Jawaid and
Waheed, 2011; Schmi -G ohe and U ibe, 2018). In hese s udies, ela ionships be ween
inc eases in commodi y p ices and he a iabili y o global ma ke s and economic g ow h
a e obse ed. In his esea ch emphasizing he impo ance o commodi y supply o di -
e en commodi ies, Tiess (2010) has s a ed ha p ice inc eases can a ec compe i ion
in a ious ways. In ano he s udy, Wloda czyk (2018) has exp essed ha p ice ola ili y
in commodi y ma ke s signi ican ly a ec s he eal economy. Niemi (2018) has s a ed
ha expo s may a y depending on he p ice. Also, Khali a (2016) has e ealed ha aw
ma e ial p ices a e de e minan o expo s. The assump ion ha his highly p obable
change could be e lec ed in Tü kiye’s pas a expo s h ough he change in aw ma e ial,
namely whea p ices, is c ucial o his s udy. Goliko a e . al., (2020) ha e conduc ed
esea ch a a c ucial poin ha will con ibu e signi ican ly o his s udy. Acco ding o hei
s udy, p ice luc ua ions in ag icul u al aw ma e ials a ec he planning o ag icul u al
p oduc ion. The exis ing esea ch in he li e a u e ha examines he ela ionship be ween
aw ma e ial p ices and commodi y expo s s eng hens he s a ing poin and heo e ical
ounda ion o he s udy. Subsequen s udies, howe e , ocus speci ically on pas a, which
is he cen al ocal poin o his esea ch.
Tu ning in o in e na ional s udies on he comme cial s uc u e o pas a, i is possible
o encoun e examina ions om di e en pe spec i es. In hei esea ch highligh ing
mode n pas a p oduc ion in he con ex o sus ainabili y, Recchia e al. (2019) emphasized
Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan. A S udy on he E ec o Impo ed Whea P ices on Tü kiye’s Pas a Expo s: ARDL App oach
49
ha companies engaged in global pas a expo s using impo ed whea a e s ong in his
sec o . I has been pa icula ly no ed ha Mexico and Canada hold signi ican posi ions
in whea expo s. In I aly, on he o he hand, whea is mainly supplied by local whea
supplie s, and whea om F ance, he Uni ed S a es, and Aus alia a e in eg a ed in o
pas a p oduc ion (And ade-Sanchez, 2014; Samson e al., 2016). Mukhame zyano e
al. (2021), in hei s udy on he p oduc ion and expo po en ial o g ains and hei sub-
g oups, including whea and o he ag icul u al p oduc s ha se e as aw ma e ials o
many p oduc s, including pas a, ha e indica ed ha hese play a signi ican economic ole.
The e o e, he expo o hese p oduc s is also emphasized o ha e s a egic impo ance.
The s a egic impo ance o he whea used in pas a p oduc ion aside, i s quali y is ano he
no ewo hy aspec . B uneel e al. (2010) unde sco ed he pa amoun impo ance o he
quali y o whea u ilized in pas a p oduc ion, asse ing ha he nu i ional cha ac e is ics
o pas a a y depending on he ype o whea employed. Co espondingly, Ha e (2017)
emphasized he co ela ion be ween he quali y o he whea used and he esul ing pas a
quali y. Menesa i and Buca elli (2007), in hei s udy, accen ua ed ha achie ing high
quali y in he pas a sec o en ails ele a ed cos s. They elucida ed ha consume s wi h a
s ong inclina ion o pay alue o pas a c a ed h ough adi ional p oduc ion me hods
o i s supe io quali y a e willing o in es in such p emium pas a wi hou hesi a ion.
In addi ion, Simeone e al. (2015) highligh ed in hei s udy on he I alian pas a sec o
ha pas a p ices play a c ucial ole in shaping compe i i e s a egies. In a pa allel ein,
Cacchia elli and So en ino (2018) iden i ied he e ec i eness o egula ions imposed by
ma ke egula o s in pas a ma ke s. They speci ically no ed ha egula ions on whea ha e
a subs an ial impac on he pas a supply chain. Quali y and ma ke condi ions also play
a signi ican ole in pas a ade and he supply chain. All hese s udies indica e ha he e
a e a ious a eas p o iding esea ch oppo uni ies ega ding he ela ionship be ween he
whea used and he p oduced pas a.
When i comes o esea ch conduc ed in Tü kiye, especially hose ela ed o he pas a
ade, hey ha e been included in his s udy. Keskin and Demi baş (2011) emphasized he
po en ial o he pas a sec o in Tü kiye du ing he ele an pe iod in a s udy highligh ing
he po en ial o p ocessed ag icul u al p oduc s in he coun y. In ano he s udy, Özaydın
and Ka akayacı (2023) examined he s uc u e o he lou and bake y p oduc s indus y
in he ood indus y, unde lining he necessi y o impo ed whea o pas a expo s. Çe in
(2020) emphasized he dependence on impo s o expo s in his s udy, which in es iga ed
ag icul u al p oduc ion h ough o eign ade da a. In a s udy examining he o eign ade
s uc u e o whea and whea p oduc s in Tü kiye, Du u e al. (2019) iden i ied ha whea
was impo ed h ough he inwa d p ocessing egime and expo ed as whea -based p oduc s.
Tu han (2018), in a s udy analyzing he compe i i eness o he pas a sec o , de e mined ha
Tü kiye has de eloped compe i i e capabili ies in he global pas a ma ke s. In addi ion o
hese s udies, some esea ch highligh s he p esence o pas a p oduc ion acili ies in Tü kiye
equipped wi h leading echnologies (Va lık, 2021). Fu he mo e, i is men ioned ha ce ain
ci ies in Tü kiye could make signi ican con ibu ions o whea p oduc ion, which is essen ial
o pas a manu ac u ing (Acibuca, 2021).
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As obse ed up o his poin in he s udy, Tü kiye s ands ou as a signi ican hub o
pas a p oduc ion. Mo eo e , i has he capabili y o p oduce he whea necessa y o pas a
manu ac u ing; howe e , o a ious easons, he whea p oduced is no su icien o mee
he equi ed quan i y o expo . Çığ e al. (2022) explained his si ua ion by s a ing ha
Tu key p oduces enough whea o i s own consump ion bu impo s whea o pas a expo s
by aking ad an age o he inwa d p ocessing egime. Despi e he inhe en po en ial o
Tü kiye o be a pas a expo e based on he Fac o Endowmen Theo y, scien i ic s udies
emphasizing he necessi y o impo ing whea ha e con ibu ed o he o mula ion o hy-
po heses in his esea ch. As indica ed in he da a and me hods sec ion o he s udy, he e
a e ideas sugges ing ha he p ices de e mined by he coun ies om which Tü kiye impo s
he mos whea could be ela ed o Tü kiye’s pas a expo quan i y.
Ne e heless, an en i e model should no be buil solely on he s uc u e o impo ed
aw ma e ials. The e o e, i would be app op ia e o include no only he pu chase o im-
po ed aw ma e ials bu also he o eign cu encies ob ained in exchange o expo s in
he esea ch. In o he wo ds, he exchange a e a iable is also a c ucial ac o a ec ing
expo s, pa icula ly o de eloping coun ies such as Tü kiye. Va ious ou comes can be
obse ed in s udies in es iga ing he in luence o he exchange a e on ade. While some
s udies a gue ha exchange a e ola ili y educes o eign ade (Baak e al., 2007; Cheung
& Sengup a, 2013), o he s udies ha e ound ha exchange a e ola ili y does no a ec
expo s (Lee & Masih, 2018). O cou se, he e a e also s udies obse ing ha exchange a e
ola ili y inc eases expo s (Kasman & Kasman, 2005; Kılıç and Yıldı ım, 2015). Simila
s udies exis ega ding he impac o exchange a es on Tü kiye’s expo s. Ak aş (2012)
s a ed ha he exchange a e does no a ec expo s, Nazlıoğlu (2013) ound ha changes
in he exchange a e ha e di e en e ec s on sec o s’ expo s, Uysal and Doğ u (2013) in-
dica ed ha expo s dec ease as he exchange a e inc eases, and Ka akaş and E dal (2017)
men ioned ha ag icul u al p oduc expo s inc ease as he exchange a e ises. Conside ing
hese s udies, he model de e mined o he esea ch in he nex sec ion is app op ia e in
e ms o heo y and li e a u e.
3. Da a and Me hodology
3.1. Da a
Econome ic model o he s udy explains Tü kiye’s pas a expo s using a iables such as
Russia’s whea expo p ice, Uk aine’s whea expo p ice, Bulga ia’s whea expo p ice, and
he exchange a e. Tü kiye’s pas a expo s ep esen he quan i y o pas a expo ed om he
coun y. The p ices o coun ies ep esen he a e age whea selling p ices in hei expo s
o he wo ld. The exchange a e shows he Cen al Bank o he Republic o Tü kiye’s USD/
TRY a e. This exchange a e is included in he model due o he ela ionship be ween he
exchange a e and expo s as pe classical economic hough . G aphs o hese a iables a e
p esen ed in ollowing igu es. As he igu es o he a iables a e a signi ican ly di e en
le els, he g aphs a e p esen ed indi idually, as depic ed in Figu es below.
Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan. A S udy on he E ec o Impo ed Whea P ices on Tü kiye’s Pas a Expo s: ARDL App oach
51
Figu e 1. T end o he Pas a Quan i y (Kilog ams) Expo ed om Tü kiye
Tu key’s pas a expo s eached 114 million kilog ams by he end o 2021, up om
60 million kilog ams a he beginning o 2016. A one poin , i was also obse ed ha i
eached le els o 160 million kilog ams.
Figu e 2. T end o Russian, Uk ainian and Bulga ian Whea P ices (USD)
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The changes in he p ices pe kilog am o whea , he p ima y aw ma e ial o pas a
p oduc ion, applied by Russia, Uk aine, and Bulga ia, which a e among he coun ies
Tu key impo s he mos om, can be seen in Figu e 2. Acco ding o his, while Uk aine
o e s he lowes p ices and Russia o e s he highes , he h ee p ices a e qui e close o each
o he . Ne e heless, i is unde s ood ha whea p ices ha e almos doubled o e he yea s.
Figu e 3. T end o Exchange Ra e in Tü kiye (USD/TRY)
Finally, he changes in he exchange a e o he Tu kish Li a agains he US Dolla
o e he yea s a e p esen ed in Figu e 3. Acco dingly, he exchange a e has ipled om
he beginning o 2016 o he end o 2021.
Wi h hese in o ma ion, analyses we e conduc ed using mon hly da a co e ing Janua y
2016 o Decembe 2021. The analysis pe iod was de e mined based on he a ailabili y
o da a o all a iables. De i ni ions o he a iables and hei sou ces a e summa ized in
Table 3. All a iables in he analysis we e used in loga i hmic o m.
Table 3. Da a and Sou ces Used in he Resea ch
Va iable Desc ip ion* Pe iod (Mon hly) Sou ce
lnexp Expo quan i y o Tu kish pas a ( on) 2016(1) - 2021(12) In e na ional T ade Cen e
lnuwp A e age p ice o Uk anian whea (USD) 2016(1) - 2021(12) In e na ional T ade Cen e
ln wp A e age p ice o Russian whea (USD) 2016(1) - 2021(12) In e na ional T ade Cen e
lnbwp A e age p ice o Bulga ian whea
(USD) 2016(1) - 2021(12) In e na ional T ade Cen e
lnexc Exchange a e (USD/TL) 2016(1) - 2021(12) Cen al Bank o Tu kish
Republic
* ln= Na u al Loga i hm o
Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan. A S udy on he E ec o Impo ed Whea P ices on Tü kiye’s Pas a Expo s: ARDL App oach
59
Table 8. Robus ness Check Resul s
Va iable FMOLS DOLS
Coe icien S d. E o -S a is ic P ob. Coe icien S d. E o -S a is ic P ob.
ln wp -0.3601 0.4306 -0.8363 0.4060 -0.7350 0.6287 -1.1690 0.2477
lnuwp -0.2347 0.5294 -0.4434 0.6589 -0.0559 0.9649 -0.0579 0.9540
lnbwp 0.0803 0.4504 0.1783 0.8591 0.2929 0.7193 0.4072 0.6856
lnexc 0.6454 0.1120 5.7617 0.0000 0.6658 0.1642 4.0551 0.0002
C16.5059 0.5855 28.1917 0.0000 16.5165 0.8194 20.1561 0.0000
R- Squa ed 0.571442 0.65487
4. Discussions
In oday’s con ex , whe e ood supply is o u mos impo ance, his esea ch, ecognizing
he signi icance o whea as a aw ma e ial in he p oduc ion o some o he mos unda-
men al ood p oduc s, highligh s he need o a mul i ace ed examina ion. The s udy aims
o de e mine whe he Tü kiye’s pas a expo s, which a e based on whea , a e ela ed o
he p ices o impo ed whea . Acco ding o he ac o endowmen heo y, coun ies expo
based on he p oduc ion ac o s hey possess. This s udy e eals ha in he long e m,
Tü kiye’s possession o whea , whe he domes ic o impo ed, se es as a c ucial ac o
in pas a p oduc ion, con ibu ing o a e ing c ises in expo s. I ’s e iden ha sho - e m
c ises based on occasional luc ua ions in impo ed p oduc p ices do no ha e las ing e -
ec s, and Tü kiye’s pas a expo s success ully na iga e h ough hese sho -li ed shocks.
E en wi h an inc ease in he impo ed whea p ice, Tü kiye manages o inc ease i s pas a
expo s by u ilizing he pu chased whea . This s udy shows some simila i ies wi h he
s udies in li e a u e e iew. S udies explaining he ela ionship be ween aw ma e ial p ices
and expo s o commodi y such as (Nikonenko e al., 2020; McG ego , 2017; Jawaid and
Waheed, 2011) ha e simila esul s like his esea ch.
As o 2022, Tü kiye s ands ou h in global pas a expo s and simila ly holds he ou h
posi ion in global whea impo s. Despi e his balance be ween p oduc ion capabili ies
and expo s, Tü kiye does engage in whea expo s, albei in small quan i ies, as obse ed
om s a is ical da a. Some s udies men ioned in he in oduc ion sec ion o his esea ch
sugges ha aw ma e ial p ices in luence p oduc expo s ac oss a ious indus ies
(Schmi -G ohe & U ibe, 2018). Howe e , his s udy ocused on Tü kiye indica es ha
impo ed whea p ices don’ signi ican ly a ec pas a expo s in he long e m. S ill, i
aligns wi h simila sho - e m shock scena ios documen ed in li e a u e. When conside ing
he whea supply o pas a expo s highligh ed in pas s udies, he occu ence o sho -
e m shocks becomes an explana o y aspec . E iden ly, Tü kiye’s pas a expo s exhibi
a dependence on impo ed whea . Hence, despi e p ice luc ua ions, whea p ocu emen
con inues o suppo pas a expo s. In his con ex , one o he mos c i ical aspec s o
Tü kiye is he necessi y o inc ease whea p oduc ion and, when insu icien , supplemen
i wi h impo ed whea o sus ain expo s. Because as Tiess (2010) men ioned p ice o
aw ma e ial does no always i o compe i ion.
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60
Ano he inding o his s udy is he e ec o exchange a es on pas a expo s. The
s udies ha ound ha he exchange a e inc eases expo s (Kasman & Kasman, 2005;
Kılıç and Yıldı ım, 2015; Nazlıoğlu, 2013; Ka akaş & E dal, 2017) ha e eached a simila
conclusion o his esea ch. On he o he hand, s udies ha ha e obse ed he nega i e
impac o he exchange a e on expo s (Baak e al., 2007; Cheung & Sengup a, 2023;
Uysal & Doğ u, 2013) ha e yielded con adic o y esul s hus a . The compa ison wi h
he esul s ob ained om his s udy and he pas s udies in li e a u e a e b ie ly summa-
ized in he able below.
Table 9. B ie Summa y o Compa ison Be ween Pas S udies in Li e a u e
Resea ch Findings
Simila i y Asses men
wi h his S udy
Sho Run Long Run
Kasman & Kasman, 2005 Exchange a e inc ease -> expo s (+) Con adic o y Simila
Baak e al., 2007 Exchange a e ola ili y -> o eign ade (-) Con adic o y Con adic o y
Tiess, 2010 P ice inc eases -> in e na ional compe i ion (-) Simila Con adic o y
Cheung & Sengup a, 2013 Exchange a e ola ili y -> o eign ade (-) Con adic o y Con adic o y
Uysal & Doğ u, 2013 Exchange a e inc ease -> expo s (-) Con adic o y Con adic o y
Kılıç & Yıldı ım, 2015 Exchange a e inc ease -> expo s (+) Con adic o y Simila
Khali a, 2016 Raw ma e ial p ices -> commodi y expo s (-) Simila Con adic o y
Ka akaş & E dal, 2017 Exchange a e inc ease -> expo s (+) Con adic o y Simila
Niemi, 2018 p ice inc eases -> commodi y expo (-) Simila Con adic o y
Goliko a e al., 2020 Raw ma e ial p ices -> commodi y expo s (-) Simila Con adic o y
Nikonenko e al., 2020 Raw ma e ial p ices -> commodi y expo s (-) Simila Con adic o y
In addi ion o he esul s o hese s udies, i is also possible o discuss he indings in
e ms o he ac o endowmen heo y and he Ma shall-Le ne condi ion. Acco dingly,
based on heo ies om p e ious yea s, i is possible o say ha Tü kiye’s pas a expo s
a e no a ec ed by impo ed inpu p ices in he long un, due o he s eng h de i ed om
he cu en ac o condi ions. On he o he hand, i is obse ed ha an inc ease in he ex-
change a e also boos s pas a expo s, almos as i ul illing a classic economic p ophecy.
5. Limi a ions
In he li e a u e e iew sec ion o he s udy, i is obse ed ha he quali y o whea con-
ce ning pas a expo s is a opic o in e es . The esea ch can be conside ed limi ed due
o he absence o a a iable indica ing quali y among he a iables used in his s udy.
Addi ionally, since he s udy is conduc ed speci ically o Tü kiye, he h ee neighbo ing
coun ies wi h he highes expo s ha e been selec ed. Fo s udies in ol ing di e en
coun ies, whea p ices om addi ional impo ing coun ies could also be conside ed.
F om a heo e ical pe spec i e, he inabili y o measu e he e ec o p ice elas ici y on he
Ahmed Yusu Sa ihan. A S udy on he E ec o Impo ed Whea P ices on Tü kiye’s Pas a Expo s: ARDL App oach
61
ela ionship be ween exchange a es and expo s wi hin he con ex o he Ma shall-Le ne
condi ion can also be conside ed as ano he limi a ion o he s udy.
The da a se used in he s udy was selec ed based on common and up- o-da e ime
in e als. Access o longe - e m and b oade da a se s could be achie ed i all coun ies
had comple e da a en ies in he ITC T ademap da abase. The da ase o he 72-mon h
ime se ies used in he esea ch can also be conside ed a cons ain in his con ex . The
exclusion o da a, such as mon hly whea and pas a consump ion, among he s udy a -
iables has hinde ed he es ablishmen o a mo e comp ehensi e model. Howe e , i is
wo h no ing ha such da a could no be included in he model due o hei una ailabili y
on a mon hly basis.
6. Conclusion
Findings o his s udy sugges ha Tü kiye’s pas a expo is no signi ican ly in luenced
by he p ice o he impo ed whea in he long e m. In he sho e m, while he e seems
o be no e ec obse ed om Russia’s whea expo p ices, he occasional inc ease in
Uk aine’s whea p ice appea s o inc ease pas a expo s, po en ially due o Tü kiye being
bo h a p oduce and impo e o whea om a ious coun ies. Simila ly, examining he
e ec s o Bulga ia’s whea p ices on Tu kish pas a expo s e eals ha p ice inc eases
some imes educe pas a expo s and some imes inc ease hem. Howe e , esea ch indings
indica e ha all hese e ec s a e sho -li ed. In he long e m, i has been obse ed ha
Tü kiye’s pas a expo s a e posi i ely a ec ed only by inc eases in he exchange a e.
The ac ha Tü kiye’s pas a expo s a e no signi ican ly a ec ed in he long e m by
he whea p ices om he coun ies i p ima ily sou ces whea om can be conside ed a
signi ican oppo uni y.
I has been de e mined ha inc eases in he exchange a e lead o an inc ease in Tü ki-
ye’s pas a expo s in he long un. Conside ing Tü kiye’s s a us as a de eloping coun y,
i is na u al o businesses o ocus on expo s o ake ad an age o he ising exchange
a e. Indeed, as can be seen in he ele an igu e, he exchange a e has been consis en ly
inc easing in Tü kiye in ecen yea s. Addi ionally, gi en ha Tü kiye’s ade de ici is a
ch onic issue, i can be a gued ha gene a ing o eign cu ency income is a alid mo i e o
all businesses capable o expo ing. In o he wo ds, in a de eloping coun y whe e expo s
canno mee impo s, businesses also seek o posi ion hemsel es ad an ageously unde
he assump ion ha he exchange a e inc ease will be pe sis en . Fu he mo e, ano he
aspec o he inc ease in he exchange a e is ha businesses expo ing om Tü kiye may
ha e a p ice ad an age in global compe i ion compa ed o hei in e na ional compe i o s.
7. Theo e ical Implica ions
The indings ob ained wi h he model es ablished in his s udy a e signi ican o in e na-
ional ade, economics, ag icul u al economics, and mac oeconomics esea ch. Pa icula ly
no ewo hy is he sca ci y o s udies ha examine in e na ional ade a he p oduc and
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62
p oduc g oup le els, as well as he limi ed esea ch ha p esen s he impac o supply
and aw ma e ial a iables a he mac o le el on expo ed p oduc s. In his con ex , he
esea ch indings sugges ha delayed e ec s may be p esen , especially in he sho e m.
The e o e, i is ecommended o conduc simila s udies in a ious coun ies and wi h
di e en p oduc g oups. Especially wi hin he amewo k o ac o endowmen heo y, i is
obse ed ha adi ional in e na ional ade heo ies s ill hold explana o y powe o oday’s
ade. Addi ionally p ice elas ici y a iables could be used in u u e s udies i a ailable.
The e o e, esea che s a e encou aged o ocus on s udies ha in eg a e his o ical heo ies
(such as Fac o Endowmen Theo y and Ma shall-Le ne Condi ion) wi h con empo a y
app oaches. Pa icula ly, i is belie ed ha esea ch on he expo p oduc s o de eloping
coun ies o a ious coun ies, goods, and ime pe iods, es ed wi h di e se me hods,
should be encou aged o enhance he unde s anding o in e na ional ade. In addi ion o
all his, i is ecommended no o o e look he exchange a e a iable in expo s udies,
conside ing ha he classic economic iew, which sugges s ha expo s also inc ease wi h
an inc ease in he exchange a e is once again p o en co ec .
8. P ac ical Implica ions
The esea ch esul s sugges ha he e is no only a esponsibili y o pas a p oduce s
bu also o policymake s. Al hough no included in he model o his s udy, i can be
said ha conside ing he emphasized quali y o aw ma e ials in he li e a u e, impo ed
whea should also be ca e ully selec ed o he coun y in his ega d. I is accu a e o say
ha he p ice o whea o be impo ed in o he coun y need o be inspec ed, and a i
measu es should be aken o ensu e ha local whea p oduce s can compe e wi hou being
ha med. Fu he mo e, conside ing Tü kiye’s consump ion o whea -based p oduc s om
a heal h pe spec i e, whea impo s should be shaped acco ding o he heal h ce i ica e
equi emen s o leading coun ies in he wo ld.
In addi ion, conside ing he long- e m impac o he exchange a e on pas a expo s,
Tü kiye’s mone a y and iscal policies ega ding he exchange a e a e no ewo hy. Indeed,
al hough he sudden inc eases seen in ecen yea s may p esen a posi i e pic u e in e ms
o o eign cu ency ea nings o expo e s, i can be said ha p ope decisions need o be
made conside ing he possibili y o inc eased cos s being co e ed wi h o eign cu ency.
Since he compe i i e pe o mance o expo e s in he in e na ional ma ke will also de-
pend on he balance o income and expenses, e ec i e managemen o he exchange a e
is c ucial o bo h go e nmen s and companies o minimize isks.
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