Nyawi a, Syl ia S. e al.
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Pan opical CO₂ emissions and emo als o he AFOLU
sec o in he pe iod 1990–2018
Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Nyawi a, Syl ia S. e al. (2024) : Pan opical CO₂ emissions and emo als o he
AFOLU sec o in he pe iod 1990–2018, Mi iga ion and Adap a ion S a egies o Global Change,
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1 3
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Pan opical CO2 emissions and emo als o heAFOLU sec o
in hepe iod 1990–2018
Syl iaS.Nyawi a1 · Ma inHe old2· KalkidanAyeleMula u3·
RosaMa iaRoman‑Cues a4,6· Richa dA.Hough on5· GiacomoG assi6·
JuliaPong a z7,8· ThomasGasse 9· LouisVe cho 10
Recei ed: 21 June 2022 / Accep ed: 11 Decembe 2023 / Published online: 20 Feb ua y 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Abs ac
T anspa en , accu a e, compa able, and comple e es ima es o g eenhouse gas emissions
and emo als a e needed o suppo mi iga ion goals and pe o mance assessmen s unde
he Pa is Ag eemen . He e, we p esen a compa a i e analysis o he ag icul u e o es y
and o he land use (AFOLU) emission es ima es om di e en da ase s, including Na ional
G eenhouse Gas In en o ies (NGHGIs), FAOSTAT, he BLUE, OSCAR, and Hough on
(he e a e upda ed H&N2017) bookkeeping models; Emissions Da abase o Global
A mosphe ic Resea ch (EDGAR); and he US En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency (EPA).
We disagg ega e he luxes o he o es y and o he land use (FOLU) sec o in o o es
land, de o es a ion, and o he land uses (including non- o es land uses), while ag icul u al
emissions a e disagg ega ed acco ding o he sou ces (i.e., li es ock, c oplands, ice cul i-
a ion, and ag icul u al i es). Conside ing di e en ime pe iods (1990–1999, 2000–2010,
and 2011–2018), we analyse he end o he luxes wi h a key ocus on he opical egions
(i.e., La in Ame ica, sub-Saha an A ica, and Sou h and Sou heas Asia). Th ee o he i e
da a sou ces indica ed a decline in he ne emissions o e he opics o e he pe iod 1990–
2018. The ne FOLU emissions o he opics a ied wi h alues o 5.47, 5.22, 4.28, 3.21,
and 1.17 G CO2 yea −1 ( o BLUE, OSCAR, upda ed H&N2017, FAOSTAT, and NGH-
GIs, espec i ely) o e he ecen pe iod (2011–2018). G oss de o es a ion emissions o e
he same pe iod we e 5.87, 7.16, 5.48, 3.96, and 3.74 G CO2 yea −1 ( o BLUE, OSCAR,
upda ed H&N2017, FAOSTAT, and NGHGIs). The ne o es land sink was −1.97,
−3.08, −2.09, −0.53, and −3.00 G CO2 yea −1 ( o BLUE, OSCAR, upda ed H&N2017,
FAOSTAT, and NGHGIs). Con inen al analysis indica ed ha he di e ences be ween he
da a sou ces a e much la ge in sub-Saha an A ica and Sou h and Sou heas Asia han in
La in Ame ica. Disag eemen s in he FOLU emission es ima es a e mainly explained by
di e ences in he managed land a eas and he p ocesses conside ed (i.e., di ec s indi ec
e ec s o land use change, and g oss s ne accoun ing o de o es a ion). Ne ag icul u al
emissions om c opland, li es ock, and ice cul i a ion we e mo e homogenous ac oss he
FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA da ase s, wi h all he da a sou ces indica ing an inc ease
in he emissions o e he opics. Howe e , he e we e no able di e ences in he emission
om ag icul u al i es. This s udy highligh s he impo ance o in es ing and imp o ing
da a sou ces o key luxes o achie e a mo e obus and anspa en global s ock ake.
Ex ended au ho in o ma ion a ailable on he las page o he a icle
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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13 Page 2 o 24
Keywo ds Ag icul u e o es y and o he land use (AFOLU)· Fo es y and o he land use
(FOLU)· Ag icul u al emissions· Emissions· Sinks· T opics
1 In oduc ion
A mosphe ic concen a ions o g eenhouse gases ha e inc eased subs an ially since p e-
indus ial imes. The ise in CO2 is mainly associa ed wi h ossil uel bu ning and con ibu-
ions om he land sec o (IPCC 2022), commonly e e ed o as ‘ag icul u e, o es y, and
o he land uses’ (AFOLU). AFOLU emissions esul om changes in he na u al luxes o
CO2 and o he non-CO2 gases, la gely me hane (CH4), and ni ous oxide (N2O), h ough
an h opogenic changes in land use/co e (e.g., con e sion o o es lands and g asslands o
c opland and pas u e, a o es a ion), and managemen o c oplands, o es s, and we lands.
AFOLU ac i i ies lead o bo h sou ces and sinks o CO2, mainly om o es y and land-
use change, and o non-CO2 emissions mainly om ag icul u e, e.g., CH4 om li es ock
and ice cul i a ion, N2O om manu e s o age, and c opland soils and biomass bu ning
(Tubiello e al. 2013, 2014). Globally, he AFOLU sec o was esponsible o 13 G CO2 eq.
yea −1 in 2019, which was abou 22% o ne an h opogenic g eenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
sions, wi h app oxima ely hal om ag icul u e and he o he hal om o es y and o he
land use ac i i ies (FOLU) (Pa hak e al. 2022).
AFOLU emissions o di e en GHG gases (CO2 and non-CO2) a e a ailable h ough he
Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion (FAO) S a is ical da abase (Tubiello e al. 2013, 2014).
In addi ion, global and na ional CO2 emissions o he FOLU sec o a e also p o ided by
bookkeeping models, i.e., BLUE, Hough on and Nassikas, and OSCAR models (Gasse
e al. 2020; Hansis e al. 2015; Hough on e al. 2017), and he es ima es ha e ecen ly been
upda ed o he Global Ca bon Budge 2022 (F iedlings ein e al. 2022). Ag icul u al CO2
and non-CO2 emissions a e a ailable h ough he FAO da abase, Emissions Da abase o
Global A mosphe ic Resea ch (EDGAR) (C ippa e al. 2019; C ippa e al. 2020), and he
US En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency (EPA) da abases (US EPA 2019). Pas compa a-
i e analyses showed easonably good ag eemen among hese da a sou ces in he o al
g oss emissions a he agg ega ed le el o he opical egions, bu signi ican disag ee-
men s when disagg ega ing he emissions by sou ces, con inen s, and gases, pa icula ly
o he o es sec o , wi h i e leading he di e ences (Roman-Cues a, He old, e al., 2016).
In addi ion, emissions om he opical egions ha e emained consis en ly highe com-
pa ed o global es ima es. Fo ins ance, o he FOLU sec o , Roman-Cues a e al. (2016a)
epo ed emissions o ca. 6 G CO2 eq. yea −1 o he opics (2000–2005), wi h his alue
being highe han he global AFOLU emission es ima es o ca. 5.0 G CO2 eq. yea −1 in he
In e go e nmen al Panel o Clima e Change (IPCC) AR5 syn hesis epo o e he same
pe iod (Smi h e al. 2014).
Besides hese global da ase s, a icle 14 o he Pa is Ag eemen includes an enhanced
anspa ency amewo k (ETF) o pe iodically ack and e iew he p og ess o coun ies
owa ds achie ing hei Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ions (NDCs), and a pe iodic
global s ock ake p ocess o assessing he coun ies’ collec i e p og ess owa ds achie -
ing he long- e m goals o he ag eemen (UNFCCC 2016). All pa ies o he Uni ed
Na ions F amewo k Con en ion on Clima e Change (UNFCCC) a e equi ed o documen
he an h opogenic emissions and emo als o di e en sec o s and epo hese h ough
he na ional g eenhouse gases in en o ies (NGHGIs). Recen ly, a da ase including com-
pila ion o indi idual NGHGIs o he land use, land-use change and o es y (LULUCF)
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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Page 3 o 24 13
sec o has become a ailable (G assi e al. 2022b). P e ious s udies e ealed concep ual
inconsis encies be ween he scien i ic modelling assessmen s and coun ies in es ima -
ing he ne an h opogenic land ela ed CO2 emission, wi h a gap o abou 4 o 6.7 G CO2
yea −1 globally be ween he agg ega ed NGHIs and global model es ima es (G assi e al.
2018, 2021, 2023). The la ge di e ences a e mos ly due o di e en app oaches in es i-
ma ing he o es sink. While hese wo s udies ha e made signi ican p og ess in ec-
onciling he di e ences be ween global models and NGHGIs, hei ocus was on o es -
ela ed emissions and sinks a he global le el. In a ecen s udy, di e ences be ween
he NGHGIs and FAOSTAT ha e also been assessed a he global and egional le el
(G assi e al. 2022b), and he disc epancy be ween global models and NGHGIs has been
esol ed a he coun y-le el as well (Schwingshackl e al. 2022). Howe e , he e’s s ill a
need o a ho ough compa a i e analysis o emissions in opical egions ha in eg a es
all he la es a ailable da ase s. Wi h all UNFCCC pa ies expec ed o adop a ha mo-
nized epo ing by 2024 unde he Enhanced T anspa ency F amewo k (UNFCCC Sec e-
a ia 2020), such an analysis would no only be use ul in iden i ying and unde s anding
he causes o di e ences among he da ase s bu would also o e in o ma ion on how
coun ies can imp o e hei epo ing using he a ailable da ase s.
In his s udy, we p esen a compa a i e analysis o AFOLU emission es ima es o he
opics o he pe iod 1990–2018 using se en da a se s: NGHGIs, FAOSTAT, he BLUE,
OSCAR and Hough on and Nassikas booking models (he e a e upda ed H&N2017),
EPA, and EDGAR. Al hough he app oach o ou analysis is in some ways like ha used
in he compa a i e s udy by Roman-Cues a e al. (2016b), ou s udy goes a s ep u he by
including new da abases (e.g., NGHGIs), mo e upda ed global da a sou ces, longe analy-
sis pe iods, and disagg ega ed analysis o FOLU emissions. The objec i es o he s udy
a e (i) o p o ide a comp ehensi e and upda ed analyses on he global and opical egions
agg ega ed and disagg ega ed AFOLU emissions om di e en da a se s (i.e., a con inen-
al le el and ac i i y), (ii) assess he end o he emissions, and (iii) unde s and he easons
o he di e ences be ween he da ase s.
2 Me hods
2.1 S udy scope
Ou s udy comp ises a de ailed analysis o global AFOLU da ase s and es ima es, wi h a
ocus on h ee opical egions: La in Ame ica (LAM), sub-Saha an A ica, and Sou h and
Sou heas Asia. We chose o analyse he emissions o hese egions because o he apid
land use change in he opics and he inc eased epo ing equi emen s on opical coun ies
unde he Pa is Ag eemen . In addi ion, he opics ha e he la ges emissions unce ain y
and gaps, hence he need o unde s and he causes o di e ences be ween he a ailable
AFOLU da a sou ces (Romijn e al. 2012, 2015). Such de ailed compa isons al eadyexis
o o he egions like Eu ope (Ma ia e al. 2020). We analysed he annual a e age emissions
o e h ee di e en ime pe iods (1990–1999, 2000–2010, 2011–2018), which allowed o
an assessmen o how he epo ed emissions ha e changed o e ime. We ocused on he
pe iod 1990–2018, because i was he pe iod whe e emissions we e a ailableinmos o he
da ase s. The a e ageemissions o e a gi en pe iod was calcula ed by summing he annual
emissions and di iding by he o al numbe o yea s in ha pe iod. Ou analysis includes
ne FOLU emissions, g oss emissions om de o es a ion, ne emissions o sinks om o he
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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13 Page 4 o 24
o es land ac i i ies (e.g., ha es ), and o he land uses. Ne land use emissions conside he
emissions by he sou ces and he emo als by sinks in a inal emission balance whe e he
emo als a e discoun ed om he emissions. G oss assessmen s include he con ibu ions
o di e en sou ces and sinks o he ne land use emissions. A key ad an age o he g oss
assessmen s compa ed o ne AFOLU emissions is ha hey o e di ec in o ma ion on he
sinks and sou ces ha can acili a e he de elopmen o mo e a ge ed measu es and policies
o enhance and p omo e mi iga ion (Deb Rich e and Hough on 2011; Roman-Cues a e al.
2016a), and p o ide a be e indica ion o he clima e bene i s o o es s.
2.2 AFOLU da a sou ces
2.2.1 FAOSTAT
FAOSTAT co e s ag icul u e, o es y, and o he land uses and hei associa ed emis-
sions o CO2, CH4, and N2O (Fede ici e al. 2015; Tubiello e al. 2013, 2021) . FAOSTAT
da abase includes emission es ima es o 242 coun ies annually o he e e ence pe iod
1961–2018 (ag icul u e) and 1990–2019 (FOLU), based on na ional ac i i y submi ed by
coun ies and u he compiled by FAO (Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion o he Uni ed
Na ions). Es ima es a e compu ed ollowing Tie 1 me hods and de aul ac o s o he 2006
IPCC Guidelines o Na ional G eenhouse Gas In en o ies. FAOSTAT includes es ima es
o ca bon emissions om ne o es con e sion, biomass i es, o ganic soils in c opland
and g asslands, pea land d ainage, and emissions om o he o es land ac i i ies (Table1).
These es ima es a e based on na ional s a is ics. Fo es ca bon s ock changes (bo h emis-
sions and emo als) ha e ecen ly been upda ed based on he na ional-le el FAO Fo es
Resou ces Assessmen 2020 (FAO 2020a, 2020b).
2.2.2 Bookkeeping models
We used he h ee bookkeeping models ha we e pa o he 2022 Global Ca bon Budge :
he OSCAR model, he bookkeeping o land use emissions (BLUE), and he Hough on and
Nassikas model (upda ed H&N2017) (Gasse e al. 2020; Hansis e al. 2015; Hough on
e al. 2017). The models a e based on he o iginal bookkeeping app oach o Hough on
(2003) ha keeps ack o he ca bon s o ed in he ege a ion and soils be o e and a e a
land-use change. The models use li e a u e-based esponse cu es o desc ibe he decay
o ege a ion and soil ca bon, including ans e o p oduc pools o di e en li e imes, as
well ca bon up ake due o eg ow h. Bookkeeping models es ima e emissions o CO2 om
de o es a ion, shi ing cul i a ion, wood ha es , woody deb is decay, biomass bu ning
(de o es a ion and pea land i es), and soil o ganic ma e (SOM) om cul i a ed soils.
The h ee bookkeeping models di e wi h espec o he land-use change da a used
o d i e he model. The upda ed H&N2017 bases i s es ima es on he Fo es Resou ce
Assessmen (FRA) o he FAO, which p o ides s a is ics on o es change and manage-
men a in e als o 5 yea s and is cu en ly upda ed un il 2020 (FAO 2020a). Changes
in land use o he han o es s a e based on annual na ional changes in c opland and pas-
u e a eas epo ed by FAO (FAOSTAT, 2021). BLUE uses he ha monized land-use
change da a LUH2-GCB2022 co e ing he en i e 850–2021 pe iod, which is an upda e
o he p e iously eleased LUH2 2h da ase (Hu e al. 2020). OSCAR was un wi h
bo h LUH2-GCB2022 and FAO/FRA (as used in he upda ed H&N2017), whe e he d i -
e s o he la e we e linea ly ex apola ed o 2021 using hei 2015–2020 ends. BLUE
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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Table 1 A summa y o he cha ac e is ics o he ou o es y and land use (FOLU) ac i i y da a se s analysed in he p esen s udy
a h ps:// www. ao. o g/ aos a / en/# da a/ GTdow nload edon2 7 hAp il20 22
b h ps:// zenodo. o g/ eco d/ 63907 39#. YmkC8 9pBw2y
c h ps:// edga . j c. ec. eu opa. eu/ da as e _ ghg60 downl oaded inJan ua y2 020
d h ps:// www. epa. go / global- mi ig a ion- non- co2- g een house- gases/ global- non- co2- ghg- emiss ions- 1990- 2030
e Also a ailable a pixel le el (0.25)
FAOSTAT
aBLUE H&N2017 and OSCAR NGHGIsbEDGAR
cEPAd
Spa ial disagg ega ion in
p esen s udy
Coun y Coun yeCoun y Coun y Coun y Coun y
Pe iod a ailable 1990–2019 1850–2020 1850–2021 2000–2020 1970–2015 1990–2030
Pe iod in p esen s udy 1990–2018 1990–2018 1990–2018 2000–2018 1990–2015 1990–2015
G oss/ne emissions G oss excep o es luxes G oss G oss G oss G oss G oss
Tie 1 3 3 1 o 2 1 1
Sec o Ag icul u e and FOLU FOLU FOLU FOLU Ag icul u e Ag icul u e
Gas CO2, CH4, N2OCO2CO2CO2CO2, CH4, N2OCO2, CH4, N2O
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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13 Page 6 o 24
and upda edH&N2017 models exclude land ecosys ems’ ansien esponse o changes in
clima e, a mosphe ic CO2, and o he en i onmen al ac o s, and he ca bon densi ies a e
based on con empo a y da a om li e a u e and in en o y da a. Since ca bon densi ies
emain ixed o e ime, he addi ional sink capaci y ha ecosys ems p o ide in esponse
o CO2 e iliza ion and some o he en i onmen al changes is no cap u ed by he models
(Pong a z e al. 2014). Al hough he OSCAR model does accoun o he ansien esponse
associa ed wi h en i onmen al changes, he emissions included he e a e only hose associ-
a ed wi h land-use change. Emissions om pea bu ning and pea d ainage a e added om
ex e nal da ase s (see Appendix C2.1 in F iedlings ein e al. 2022). We ob ained he ne
FOLU emissions o he h ee bookkeeping models and annual g oss luxes o CO2 (i.e.,
bo h sinks and sou ces) esul ing de o es a ion, o es land, and o he land use ansi ions
o he h ee bookkeeping models. Fo he h ee models, annual emissions we e a ailable
o 218 coun ies. The FOLU emissions used he e a e based on he 2022 Global Ca bon
budge (F iedlings ein e al. 2022).
2.2.3 Na ional G eenhouse Gases In en o ies (NGHGIs) o heLULUCF sec o
Na ional G eenhouse Gas In en o ies (NGHGIs) p esen ed he e include es ima es o
LULUCF CO2 emissions and sinks submi ed o he UNFCCC. Figu e 1 illus a es he
concep ual di e ences be ween he NGHGIs, he bookkeeping models, and FAOSTAT in
e ms o he p ocesses accoun ed o and he a ea ex en . The da a we e compiled om a -
ious submissions o UNFCCC, p io i izing he mos ecen and conside ing he comple e-
ness o he in o ma ion (G assi e al. 2022a; G assi e al. 2022b). Fo non-Annex 1 coun-
ies, Na ional Communica ions (NCs), Biennial Upda e epo s (BURs), and na ionally
de e mined con ibu ions we e used in compiling he da a. Only one submission was used
in compiling he da a na ional GHGIs. While NCs a e ypically submi ed e e y 4 yea s,
BURs p o ide an upda e o he in o ma ion p esen ed in NCs, ypically e e y 2 yea s.
The ime o epo ing a ies o he di e en non-Annex 1 coun ies. To ensu e a com-
ple e ime se ies o he pe iod 2000–2020, gaps we e illed using s anda d s a is ical me h-
ods, wi h he aim o main ain he le els and ends o he unde lying epo ed aw da a (see
Tables4 and 5 o he online da ase in G assi e al. 2022a, showing he o iginal and gap-
illed ime se ies, espec i ely). Howe e , mos o he non-Annex 1 coun ies wi h he big-
ges emissions, including B azil, Indonesia, and Democ a ic epublic o Congo, epo ed
ela i ely comple e ime se ies. The gap- illed da a includes all land uses (i.e., o es land,
c opland, g assland, we lands, se lemen s, and o he land) and co e s 195 coun ies.
Almos all Annex 1 coun ies epo all land uses, while many non-Annex 1 coun ies
epo only on o es land and de o es a ion. He e, we used he NGHGI da a compiled in
G assi e al. (2022b), which include a spli o he ne LULUCF lux in o he ca ego ies o
o es land, de o es a ion, o ganic soils, and o he land use luxes.
2.2.4 EDGAR
The Emissions Da abase o Global A mosphe ic Resea ch e sion 5 (EDGAR 5.0) p o-
ides emissions o h ee main g eenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) pe sec o a 0.1
deg × 0.1 deg g id maps and coun y le el (C ippa e al. 2019, 2020). The EDGAR da a-
base o his e sion co e s he ene gy, indus y, anspo , was e managemen , and ag icul-
u e (including ag icul u al soils, ag icul u al was e bu ning, en e ic e men a ion, manu e
managemen ) sec o s, mainly quan i ied using he IPCC 2006 guidelines o emissions
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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Page 7 o 24 13
es ima ions. Howe e , emissions o la ge-scale biomass bu ning in sa annahs, o es i es,
and sou ces and sinks om LULUCF a e excluded in his e sion. EDGAR emission es i-
ma es a e mos ly calcula ed using ac i i y da a om FAO s a is ics. Howe e , N2O emis-
sion om e ilize use and CO2 om u ea e ilisa ion a e es ima ed using bo h he In e -
na ional Fe ilize Associa ion (IFA) and FAO s a is ics da a. Fu he mo e, CH4 emissions
om en e ic e men a ion o dai y and non-dai y ca le a e calcula ed using Tie 2 emis-
sion ac o s. We downloaded he EDGAR 5.0 (Janua y 2020) emissions o e he pe iod
1990–2018 on an annual basis, a he coun y le el (Table1) (C ippa e al. 2019).
2.2.5 The US En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency (EPA)
The EPA da ase con ains global non-CO2 p ojec ed emissions o he pe iod 1990–2050
o he ag icul u e (li es ock, c opland, ice cul i a ion, and biomass bu ning), ene gy,
indus ial p ocesses, and he was e sec o s. EPA p o ides u u e p ojec ions o non-
CO2 GHGs using a combina ion o coun y- epo ed in en o y da a and EPA-es ima ed
Fig. 1 A concep ual diag am indica ing he key di e ences be ween he Na ional G eenhouse Gases In en-
o ies (NGHIs), he bookkeeping models and he FAOSTAT in hei Fo es y and Land Use (FOLU) emis-
sions. Bookkeeping models and NGHIs p o ide g oss emissions o de o es a ion, while FAOSTAT p o ides
ne emissions om o es s, whe e emissions om de o es a ion a e discoun ed wi h he gains om a o -
es a ion. Bookkeeping models conside as an h opogenic only di ec human-induced luxes on o es land,
while NGHGIs and FAOSTAT accoun o bo h he human-induced luxes and he indi ec e ec s es ing
om en i onmen al changes, e.g., he CO2 e iliza ion and ni ogen deposi ion. In addi ion, he ex en o
a eas di e s wi h NGHGIs also including unmanaged lands. On c opland and g asslands, bookkeeping
models only include luxes om he land use con e sion, FAOSTAT include only he luxes om o ganic
soils, while he NGHIs accoun o he luxes om bo h mine al and o ganic soils
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calcula ions consis en wi h he 2006 In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC)
Guidelines o na ional GHGIs. The EPA da a p o ides in o ma ion ha can be used o
unde s and na ional con ibu ions o GHG emissions, his o ical p og ess on educ ions,
and mi iga ion oppo uni ies. The EPA da a does no include es ima es o FOLU ac i i ies.
We downloaded annual ag icul u al emissions o e ed a a 1-yea in e al a coun y le el
and disagg ega ed by gas and emission sou ces om he ecen ly upda ed da a ha was
used in he 2015–2050 p ojec ions (Table1) (US EPA 2019).
2.3 Es ima ing ne andg oss emissions andsinks
We analysed he da a using wo majo ca ego ies: (1) o es y and o he land use ac i i-
ies (FOLU) and (2) ag icul u e. We quan i ied he ne FOLU and ag icul u e emissions
by summing he emissions and sinks o all he ac i i ies in he espec i e ca ego y unde
Table1. We compa ed he ne FOLU, and ag icul u e emissions es ima ed om he di e -
en da a sou ces a he global le el and wi hin he h ee con inen s in he opical egions.
To assess he end o he emissions in he opical egions, we calcula ed he a e age al-
ues o h ee di e en ime pe iods (1990–1999, 2000–2010, and 2011–2018). Disagg e-
ga ed alues om he NGHGIs we e a ailable in ou ime slices (2000–2005, 2006–2010,
2011–2015, and 2016–2020). Fo compa abili y wi h o he da a se s, he 2016–2020 emis-
sions we e included in he 2011–2018 pe iod.
FOLU emissions om all he conside ed da a se s only included CO2 emissions and
excluded non-CO2 g eenhouse gases. To gain an in-dep h unde s anding o he emissions
pa e ns and iden i y he possible causes o di e ences among he da a sou ces, he FOLU
emissions we e u he disagg ega ed in o h ee ca ego ies: de o es a ion, o es land, and
o he land uses (emissions and sou ces). Emissions om o ganic soils we e included in
o he land use emissions. Emissions o o es i es we e included in he o es land ca -
ego y. Any o he non- o es - ela ed ac i i ies we e ca ego ized as o he land-use emissions.
FAOSTAT do no p o ide g oss de o es a ion emissions luxes, bu ins ead include he ne
o es con e sion emissions (i.e., om o es a ea losses minus a ea gains). Fo compa ison
pu poses wi h he o he da a sou ces, he ne o es con e sion emissions o FAOSTAT
we e included in he de o es a ion ca ego y. The disagg ega ion o FOLU emissions in o
de o es a ion, o es land, and o he land use was chosen o compa abili y o o he da a se s
o in he FOLU sec o ecen ly published na ional GHGIs (G assi e al. 2022b).
Emissions om ag icul u e we e sepa a ed in o ou ca ego ies based on he di e en
sou ces, i.e., c oplands, li es ock, ice cul i a ion, and ag icul u al i es. CH4 and N2O
emissions we e con e ed o CO2eq.
3 Resul s
3.1 FOLU emissions
3.1.1 Global and egional ne emissions
Globally, all he da a sou ces show ha he ne FOLU ac i i ies con ibu ed o CO2
emissions o e he pe iods 1990 o 1999 (Table2; Fig.2). Howe e , he e was disa-
g eemen be ween NGHGIs and he o he da a sou ces on he emissions o he pe iod
be ween 2000 o 2010 and 2011–2018, wi h he in en o ies indica ing a ne sink o
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FOLU emissions, ag icul u al emissions we e gene ally highe in Sou heas Asia han in
Sou h Asia ac oss he h ee da a sou ces. The ag icul u al emissions om La in Ame ica
we e mainly om Sou h Ame ica. The o al EPA emissions o he ou sub- egions in sub-
Saha an A ica we e consis en ly highe han he es ima es om EDGAR and FAOSTAT,
wi h di e ences o up o 0.3 G CO2 eq. yea −1 o e Cen al A ica (Fig.S5).
3.2.2 Disagg ega ed ag icul u al emissions.
Disagg ega ed alues show a good ag eemen on he global and opical egion emissions
om li es ock, c opland, and ice cul i a ion, while he e was a disc epancy in he emis-
sions om ag icul u al i es (Fig.6). All he da a sou ces indica e ha he li es ock sec o
is he majo con ibu o o ag icul u al emissions globally ollowed by c oplands, ice cul-
i a ion and biomass bu ning om ag icul u al ac i i ies. O e he pe iod 2011–2018, he
global emissions om li es ock we e 2.52, 2.41, and 2.56 G CO2 eq. yea −1 o EDGAR,
EPA, and FAOSTAT, espec i ely (Fig.6), wi h he o al emissions o he h ee opical
egions being 1.49, 1.32, and 1.43 G CO2 eq. yea −1. All he da a sou ces show an inc ease
in he global emissions om c opland cul i a ion and li es ock, while he e we e no no a-
ble changes in he ice cul i a ion emissions. EDGAR and EPA had highe ag icul u al i e
emissions compa ed o FAOSTAT globally and o he opics (Fig 6).
Regional analyses showed ha he la ges li es ock emissions we e om La in Ame ica
ollowed by Sou h and Sou heas Asia, wi h lowe alues in sub-Saha an A ica (Fig.7).
The inc ease in he c opland emissions was e iden ac oss he h ee opical egions,
while an inc ease in he li es ock emissions was mo e e iden in sub-Saha an A ica and
La in Ame ica. Emissions om ice cul i a ion emained cons an o e ime, wi h he
Sou h and Sou heas Asia egion being he majo con ibu o . Al hough he e was gene -
ally good ag eemen on he global emissions caused by ag icul u al i es among he EPA
and EDGAR da ase s, egional analyses show subs an ial di e ences in he emissions om
sub-Saha an A ica wi h EPA es ima es being much highe han EDGAR (Fig.7). Fu -
he analyses show ha his di e ence is mainly due o he emissions in Cen al A ica,
wi h EPA es ima ing la ge emissions om ag icul u al i es compa ed o EDGAR and
FAOSTAT. This also explains why he o al ag icul u al emission es ima es o EPA we e
la ge han he o he wo da a sou ces in Cen al A ica.
4 Discussion
4.1 Fo es ‑ ela ed emissions
Causes o di e en FOLU es ima es in he a ailable global da a sou ces ha e been assessed
in de ail in p e ious s udies and can be b oadly ca ego ized in o wo: (1) di e ences in
he sys em bounda ies and (2) di e en es ima es om simila con ibu ing p ocesses. Fo
bookkeeping models and GHGIs, he di e ences in he sys em bounda ies mainly esul
om a ying spa ial a eas o managed lands wi h bookkeeping models ha ing a b oade
de ini ion o hese lands (G assi e al. 2018). In addi ion, he e a e concep ual di e ences
in accoun ing o he di ec and indi ec human-induced e ec s o land-use change: NGH-
GIs include he indi ec e ec s o CO2 e iliza ion, N deposi ion, and changes in clima ic
a iables (e.g., empe a u e and p ecipi a ion), while bookkeeping models only accoun
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o he di ec e ec s o land-use change, ha es , and managemen . Di e ences be ween
FAOSTAT and NGHGIs can be a ibu ed o di e ences in es ima es o he o es land
a ea, incomple e accoun ing o all he ca bon pools in FAOSTAT, and di e en me hod-
ologies in accoun ing o sink in some o he non-Annex 1 coun ies (G assi e al. 2022b).
He e, we assessed he di e ences in hese h ee da a sou ces h ough analysing bo h he ne
emissions and disagg ega ed emissions o he di e en FOLU ac i i ies.
The es ima ed di e ence in he ne emissions o he opics be ween he NGHGIs and
bookkeeping models is abou 3.82 G CO2 yea −1 in he 2011–2018 pe iod, assuming an
a e age o 4.99 G CO2 yea −1 in he h ee booking models es ima es (5.47, 5.22, and 4.28
G CO2 yea −1 in BLUE, OSCAR, and upda ed H&N2017, espec i ely - Table2). The gen-
e ally highe emissions in BLUE compa ed o he upda ed H&N2017 model a e la gely
due o di e ences in ca bon densi ies be ween na u al o p ima y ege a ion and seconda y
ege a ion, and highe alloca ion o clea ed and ha es ed ma e ial o as u no e pools in
BLUE compa ed o HN2017 (Bas os e al. 2021). The disagg ega ed emission da a show
Fig. 6 (a) Global and (b) T opical egion disagg ega ed g oss emissions om di e en ag icul u al ac i i-
ies
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ha he di e ences in he emissions o he opics be ween NGHGIs and he H&N2017
model a e mainly due o he a ying es ima es o he o es land sink, which s ems om he
di e ences in he sys ems bounda ies explained abo e. Al hough he esul s show a good
ag eemen in he o es sink es ima e be ween NGHGIs and FAOSTAT in La in Ame ica, a
di e ence o abou 2 G CO2 yea −1 exis s in sub-Saha an A ica and Sou h and Sou heas
Asia. The di e ences in he sink be ween FAOSTAT and NGHGIs a e mainly ela ed o
he di e en es ima es o he o es land a eas and ca bon pools. In pa icula , G assi e al.
(2022a) ound ha i e coun ies in he opics (i.e., Malaysia, Philippines, Cen al A ican
Republic, Mali, and Namibia) epo an implausible o es sink due o he inaccu a e imple-
men a ion o he IPCC me hodology. In addi ion, he e is a la ge unce ain y in he ca bon
s ock changes o e ime in he wo da a sou ces. Schwingshackl e al. (2022) in es iga ed
di e ences in NGHGIs and bookkeeping modeles ima es ha emained e en a e he sink
induced by en i onmen al changes on managed o es land was accoun ed o in de ail o
se e al coun ies, including B azil, Indonesia, and he DR Congo. Va ious sho comings
a e discussed, such as he land-use da a unde lying he bookkeeping model es ima es likely
unde es ima ing o es co e changes in B azil o he NGHGIs cap u ing only pa s o he
subs an ial o es deg ada ion in Indonesia and he DR Congo.
Fig. 7 Disagg ega ed g oss emissions om di e en ag icul u al ac i i ies o he h ee opical egions
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The disagg ega ed da a show a di e ence o up o 2 G CO2 yea −1 he de o es a ion
emissions, wi h he la ges di e ence mainly s emming om he opical egions o sub-
Saha an A ica and Sou h and Sou heas Asia. This di e ence can be mainly a ibu ed o
he di e ences in he accoun ing in he conside ed da a sou ces. FAOSTAT p o ides ne
o es con e sion luxes whe e he ne loss emissions a e discoun ed agains he gains om
o es a ea inc ease (Tubiello e al. 2021), while he NGHGIs and bookkeeping models p o-
ide g oss de o es a ion luxes. This explains why he de o es a ion luxes in FAOSTAT
we e lowe han he bookkeeping model and NGHGIs es ima es. Fo he NGHGIs, some
coun ies (e.g., India) do no epo g oss de o es a ion emissions, bu ins ead p o ide ne
luxes (G assi e al. 2023). Excluding he gains om o es eco e y and eg ow h would
inc ease he es ima ed de o es a ion emissions and p o ide a be e indica ion o he abso-
lu e mi iga ion po en ial in o es s. Al hough he bookkeeping models es ima e highe emis-
sions han NGHGIs, a ecen s udy has shown ha de o es a ion emission in he models a e
much lowe when using high esolu ion da a (Ganzenmülle e al. 2022). O e all he g oss
de o es a ion emission alues o 2.96 o 5.43 G CO2 eq. yea −1 in he h ee da a sou ces a e
wi hin he ange o he g oss o es emission alues o 5.3 ± 2.4 G CO2 eq. yea −1 es ima ed
using spa ially obse ed da a combined wi h IPCC ac o s (Ha is e al. 2021).
4.2 O he land use– ela ed emissions
Emissions om o he land use ac i i ies (e.g., shi ing cul i a ion, non- o es ela ed land
use con e sions, biomass bu ning, and pea land d ainage) in he opical egions a e ela-
i ely small compa ed o hose om de o es a ion. The ne emissions o hese ac i i ies
we e la ge in he bookkeeping models compa ed o FAOSTAT and NGHGIs. The highe
de o es a ion emissions mainly s em om shi ing cul i a ion, pa icula ly o he opi-
cal egions. Shi ing cul i a ion has a ela i ely la ge impo ance, and a s ong sensi i -
i y has been shown owa ds he choice o unde lying land-use da ase and spa ial esolu-
ion (Ganzenmülle e al. 2022). Excluding emissions om o ganic soils in he o he land
use emission es ima es in he NGHGIs indica es ha c oplands, g asslands, and we lands
con ibu e o a sink o CO2 in he opical egions. Howe e , mos non-Annex 1 coun ies
do no accoun o all emissions om o he land use ac i i ies in hei na ional epo ing
(G assi e al. 2021; G assi e al. 2018), which may explain why hese a e nea ly negli-
gible in sub-Saha an A ica and La in Ame ica. A lack o epo ing o hese alues may
lead o unce ain ies in he global s ock ake especially when compa ing NGHGIs o o he
da a sou ces. While emissions om hese ac i i ies a e cu en ly small and do no exhibi
a clea end (Figs.2 and 3), cu en na ional and global e o s o cu b de o es a ion a e
likely o shi he ends in he land-use and land-use change ac i i ies. Inc eased ac i i ies
in g assland a eas and poo managemen o c opland a eas a e also likely o inc ease emis-
sions om o he land use; hus, making hem equally ele an o he global s ock ake.
O e all, ou egional analyses p o ided insigh s on he end o he h ee opical
egions. Kondo e al. (2022) ound no clea end in he ne FOLU emissions o Sou h-
eas Asia wi h he wo bookkeeping models indica ing di e ing ends — he BLUE model
indica ed an inc ease while he HN2017 model a dec ease. The addi ional analyses wi h
FAOSTAT and NGHGIs indica e no clea end in he emissions o he same egion.
A sligh decline in he emissions o e La in Ame ica and an inc ease o e sub-Saha an
A ica is e iden in all he da a sou ces. This is in line wi h a ecen s udy which shows ha
he upwa d end in emissions o e B azil has likely been o e es ima ed due o a i ac s
in ea lie land-use da ase s (Rosan e al. 2021). A ecen s udy co e ing he same pe iod
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in his s udy showed ha he e has been a global inc ease in he ne AFOLU emissions
(Lamb e al. 2021). The analyses p esen ed he e show ha o he opics, his inc ease is
mainly om ag icul u al emissions and an inc ease in FOLU emissions pa icula ly o e
sub-Saha an A ica. Al hough he analyses show a decline in he de o es a ion emissions
o e La in Ame ica o e he pe iod 1990–2018, which is mainly because o go e nmen
ini ia i es (Neps ad e al. 2014), his end is likely o ha e e e sed subsequen ly, as he
2019 and 2020 season had he highes de o es a ion a es in he Amazon egion since 2008
(Sil a Junio e al. 2021).
4.3 Ag icul u e‑ ela ed emissions
To al global ag icul u al emissions o he conside ed pe iod we e mo e han he emissions
om FOLU ac i i ies, wi h ewe disc epancies be ween he da a sou ces o he emissions
om li es ock, c opland, and ice cul i a ion. The high le el o ag eemen on he ne emis-
sions o he ag icul u al sec o is because he conside ed da a sou ces gene ally ely on he
same ac i i y da a om FAO s a is ics. Howe e , he e a e some small di e ences in he
es ima es be ween he da a sou ces. Ag icul u al emission es ima es om FAOSTAT solely
ely on he IPCC Tie 1 me hodology (FAO 2022). While mos o he es ima es in EDGAR
a e also based on Tie 1 me hodology, CH4 emission ac o s o en e ic e men a ion o
dai y and non-dai y ca le ha e been upda ed including he IPCC 2006 Tie 2 me hodology
(C ippa e al. 2019). In addi ion, EDGAR uses da a om bo h FAO s a is ics and In e na-
ional Fe ilize Associa ion (IFA) in calcula ing N2O and CO2 emissions om e ilize
and u ea use (Janssens-maenhou e al. 2019). This explains obse ed di e ences in he
emission es ima es be ween FAOSTAT and EDGAR. Quan i ying ag icul u al emissions
has clea ly ecei ed less a en ion han o es y and o he land use emissions, and he hid-
den assump ion in es ima es based la gely on Tie 1 ac o s is ha he e is no a lo o spa-
ial o empo al a iabili y in hese emissions. This is an a gumen o a g ea e di e si y o
app oaches o be e es ima e he spa ial and empo al a ia ion o hese emissions.
The esul s show ha emissions om biomass bu ning in ag icul u al a eas a e highly
unce ain, wi h FAOSTAT es ima ing small emissions compa ed o he o he wo da a
sou ces. The highe emissions in EPA compa ed o EDGAR, pa icula ly o sub-Saha-
an A ica, is mainly because EPA es ima es include emissions om sa annah bu ning o
ag icul u al expansions and hese a e no accoun ed o in EDGAR (C ippa e al. 2019).
A lack o de ailed and comp ehensi e epo ing o na ional emissions om ag icul u al
ac i i ies like ha o FOLU limi s a compa a i e analysis o hese emissions. Fu u e com-
pa a i e analysis could bene i om imp o ed ag icul u al epo ing, and his would help in
unde s anding he limi a ions o exis ing ag icul u al emissions da abases.
Only FAOSTAT p o ides bo h ag icul u e and FOLU emissions. Summing he alues
in Table2 and 4 esul s in 6.14 and 7.00 G CO2 eq. yea −1 AFOLU emissions globally
and o he opics o e he pe iod 2011–2018. The global alue is much lowe han he 12
G CO2 eq. yea −1 es ima ed by Lamb e al. (2021) o 2018. The la es IPCC AR6 epo
o e s ne global emission alues o 6.49 G CO2 eq. yea −1 o LULUCF only (11% o he
global 59 G CO2 eq. yea −1 GHG emissions) (Figu e TS.6 in Pa hak e al. (2022)); hus,
he emissions p esen ed he e a e much lowe han he AR6 es ima e. The main eason o
hese lowe emissions is hey do no accoun o CH4 and N2O emissions om sa annah
bu ning and pea land and o es i es. O he h ee FOLU emission da ase s in ou analy-
sis, only FAOSTAT explici ly includes emissions om o es i es, bu hese a e ela i ely
small (0.26 G CO2 eq. yea −1 o 2011–2018) and only accoun o CO2 emissions only. In
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addi ion, CH4 and N2O emissions om d ained pea land soils and we lands o e managed
lands a e s ill no accoun ed o in he da abases and in he ecen AR6 es ima es, al hough
hese emissions can be high (He goualc’h e al. 2020; Swails e al. 2021). In eg a ing emis-
sions om i es, pea lands, and we lands in he coun y epo ing and global da abases
would also p o ide a mo e comple e assessmen o he AFOLU emissions.
5 Conclusion
This s udy p o ided a de ailed compa a i e analysis o he emissions es ima es om a ail-
able global da ase s o he AFOLU sec o . The o al ne FOLU emissions o he opical
egions anged be ween 1.17 and 5.47 G CO2 yea −1 compa ed o global alues o −2.03 o
5.16 G CO2 yea −1 o e he pe iod 2011–2018 in he ou analysed da ase s. Disagg ega ed
analyses show ha hese emissions a e mainly om de o es a ion (2.96 o 7.16 G CO2
yea −1) and pa ly om o he land-use ac i i ies (0.45 o 1.56 G CO2 yea −1), which exceed
he ne o es land sink (−0.53 o −3.08 G CO2 yea −1) and make he opical egion a ne
sou ce o emissions o he FOLU sec o . In e ms o end, h ee o he i e da a sou ces
(upda ed H&N2017, FAOSTAT, and NGHGIs) indica e a decline in he ne emissions o e
he opics, which is also p esen globally. The ne ag icul u al pan opical emissions ange
be ween 3.08 and 3.70 G CO2 eq. yea −1, wi h all he da a sou ces showing an inc ease.
Emissions om de o es a ion and biomass bu ning a e he mos unce ain o he ag icul-
u al sec o a e highly unce ain o he opical egion.
Ou analyses show ha o global FOLU assessmen s, e o s ha e been made o p o-
ide mo e de ailed da ase s ha allow o an assessmen o no only ne FOLU emissions,
bu also g oss luxes o he di e en con ibu ing ac i i ies o his sec o . Despi e hese
ad ancemen s and he a ailabili y o mo e yea s o da a, we ind ha he e a e s ill impo -
an gaps and ha many emission sou ces a e s ill no ully accoun ed o in he global
da abases. This is no new as Roman-Cues a e al. (2016a) had al eady poin ed ou o he
incomple e accoun ing o sou ces, such as om o es i es and pea land emissions, and no
including non-CO2 in he FOLU es ima es, pa icula ly N2O and CH4 emissions om o -
es i es. Gi en ha mos o he conside ed da abases a e likely o play a majo ole in he
global s ock ake, e o s should shi owa ds ensu ing ha all emission sou ces a e ully
accoun ed o , and mo e consis ency is de eloped. Mo eo e , he e is an u gen need o
o e geog aphically app op ia e AFOLU emissions ac o s, so ha land manage s, policy
make s, and socie y can e icien ly concen a e e o s and esou ces owa ds he exis ing
ho spo s o emissions. Agg ega ed coun y es ima es o g eenhouse gas emissions emain
a ba ie o a ge ed ac ion and imp o ing mi iga ion go e nance. In ha line, spa ial da a
such as hose published by Roman-Cues a e al. (2016b) and Ha is e al. (2021) show a
way o wa d. Ne e heless, ou analysis shows ha he exis ing da abases can be an impo -
an esou ce in p o iding a benchma k o NGHGIs in assessing he plausibili y o hei
es ima es, while in es ing in mo e de ailed, comple e, and accu a e da a is a key p io i y o
unde pin he cu en and u u e global s ock akes, conside ing bo h na ional o global le el
assessmen s.
Supplemen a y In o ma ion The online e sion con ains supplemen a y ma e ial a ailable a h ps:// doi.
o g/ 10. 1007/ s11027- 023- 10096-z.
Acknowledgemen s We hank Clemens Schwingshackl o p o iding us wi h he ne and disagg ega ed
FOLU emissions o he h ee bookkeeping models.
Mi ig Adap S a eg Glob Change (2024) 29:13
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Funding This wo k was unded by USAID h ough he CGIAR T us Fund and by No ad h ough g an #
QZA-21/0124 CIFOR unde he CGIAR Mi iga e+ ini ia i e.
Da a a ailabili y The na ional GHGIs, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA used in he p esen s udy a e openly
a ailable h ough he links (h ps:// doi. o g/ 10. 5281/ zenodo. 63907 39; h ps:// www. ao. o g/ aos a / en/# da a/
GT; h ps:// edga . j c. ec. eu opa. eu/ da as e _ ghg60; h ps:// www. epa. go / global- mi ig a ion- non- co2- g een
house- gases/ global- non- co2- ghg- emiss ions- 1990- 2030). The coun y-le el ne emissions o he bookkeep-
ing models a e a ailable a he Global Ca bon Budge webpage (h ps:// www. globa lca b onp o jec . o g/ ca bo
nbudg e /), while he disagg ega ed da a a e a ailable upon au ho eques .
Decla a ions
Con lic o in e es The au ho s decla e no compe ing in e es s.
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Au ho s and A ilia ions
Syl iaS.Nyawi a1 · Ma inHe old2· KalkidanAyeleMula u3·
RosaMa iaRoman‑Cues a4,6· Richa dA.Hough on5· GiacomoG assi6·
JuliaPong a z7,8· ThomasGasse 9· LouisVe cho 10
* Syl ia S. Nyawi a
S.Nyawi a@cgia .o g
1 In e na ional Cen e o T opical Ag icul u e (CIAT), Nai obi, Kenya
2 Helmhol z GFZ Ge man Resea ch Cen e o Geosciences, Po sdam, Ge many
3 In e na ional Cen e o T opical Ag icul u e (CIAT), AddisAbaba, E hiopia
4 Technical Uni e si y o Munich (TUM), Ins i u e o Fo es Managemen , Munich, Ge many
5 Woodwell Clima e Resea ch Cen e , Falmou h, USA
6 Join Resea ch Cen e (JRC), Eu opean Commission (EC), Isp a, I aly
7 Depa men ü Geog aphie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Uni e si ä Munich, Luisens . 37,
80333München, Ge many
8 Max Planck Ins i u e o Me eo ology, 20146Hambu g, Ge many
9 n e na ional Ins i u e o Applied Sys ems Analysis, Laxenbu g, Aus ia
10 In e na ional Cen e o T opical Ag icul u e (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
