Schmi z, And ea; Smolnik, F anziska
Resea ch Repo
Recon igu a ions in he pos -So ie Sou h: Dynamics and
change in Eu asia
SWP Commen , No. 58/2024
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Schmi z, And ea; Smolnik, F anziska (2024) : Recon igu a ions in he pos -So ie
Sou h: Dynamics and change in Eu asia, SWP Commen , No. 58/2024, S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2024C58
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NO.
58
DECEMBER 2024
In oduc ion
Recon igu a ions in he Pos -So ie Sou h
Dynamics and Change in Eu asia
And ea Schmi z and F anziska Smolnik
Russia’s in asion o Uk aine has accele a ed global dynamics ha p o oundly impac
he pos -So ie Sou h. Rela ions wi h Russia a e s ill s ong, bu he o me subal e ns
a e aising hei oices. The empowe men is mos isible in hei o eign ela ions,
bu also ends o s eng hen incumben egimes and he poli ical s uc u es on which
hei powe is buil . A widening adius o in e ac ion ein o ces pe cep ions o collec-
i e agency and educes he incen i es o poli ical e o m. The pe sis ence o au ho i-
a ianism pa allels he diminishing so powe o he EU and he Wes in gene al. In
dealing wi h mo e asse i e Eu asian pa ne s he EU will ha e o come up wi h
c edible o e s o s eng hen exis ing ela ions and ha monise i s policies o impac .
Russia’s wa on Uk aine has agg a a ed he
compe i ion o e egional and in e na ional
o de , heigh ening ensions be ween he
g ea powe s and enhancing he weigh o
ambi ious middle and aspi ing egional
powe s in in e na ional poli ics. Unsu p is-
ingly, hese de elopmen s also a ec he
o me So ie Sou h (he e: he Sou h Cau-
casus and he Cen al Asian s a es), whe e
Russian in luence has been signi ican . Bu
hey ha e done so in ways di e en om
wha could ha e been expec ed.
While ela ions wi h Russia emain
s ong ac oss mos o Eu asia, Wes e n eco-
nomic sanc ions ha e d ama ically al e ed
ade logis ics and ene gy ma ke s and ex-
panded he in e na ional in luence o a
numbe o coun ies in he egion. The
K emlin’s decision o asse an impe ial
wo ld iew by applying b u e o ce in
Uk aine has spu ed exis ing decolonisa ion
deba es h oughou he o me So ie
pe iphe y, lending weigh o emancipa o y
and mul i- ec o o eign policies.
The Eu asian coun ies’ widening ho i-
zons ha e no led o any weakening o he
neo-pa imonial and au ho i a ian o ms
o ule ha we e inhe i ed om he So ie
e a and e ined in he pos -So ie yea s.
Ins ead, he consolida ion o au ho i a ian
egimes in mos o Eu asia seems o ex end
in o au ho i a ian egionalisms ha ex-
clude Wes e n ac o s. This de elopmen
echoes he de e io a ing image o Wes e n
powe s and e lec s an an agonism owa ds
libe al alues in many pa s o he wo ld.
Rela ions wi h Russia
Despi e being p eoccupied by i s wa on
Uk aine, Russia is wo king ha d o keep a
SWP Commen 58
Decembe 2024
2
g ip on he es o i s “Nea Ab oad”. He e
i employs a b oad ange o policies and
ins umen s, in pa icula le e aging eco-
nomic connec ions and dependencies in
ene gy, anspo and ade. I supplies oil
and gas o coun ies ha lack hei own
ese es, such as Geo gia and especially
A menia, whose con lic wi h Aze baijan
has le i compa a i ely isola ed in he
egion. I also expo s oil and gas o s a es
in he egion ha ha e signi ican hyd o-
ca bon p oduc ion o hei own, ei he
o hei domes ic needs o o e-expo .
Russia also plays a ole in supplying in es -
men o mode nise na ional indus ies, o
example in Kazakhs an, Ky gyzs an and
Uzbekis an.
Russia is among he op ade pa ne s
o all hese coun ies, acco ding o IMF
da a o 2023. E en in Geo gia, whe e an i-
Russian sen imen s among he popula ion
a e p obably mos p onounced, 56 pe cen
app o e o doing business wi h Russians
acco ding o he 2024 Caucasus Ba ome e .
In many cases ade ac ually inc eased a e
he in asion o Uk aine, as Wes e n sanc-
ions led Moscow o seek new supply chains
and al e na i e anspo ou es.
The Eu asian Economic Union (EEU),
which b ings oge he A menia, Bela us,
Kazakhs an, Ky gyzs an and Russia, also
se es as a poli ical ehicle o Moscow.
P e e en ial ea men wi hin he bloc –
including labou mig a ion, which is
essen ially mono-di ec ional in o Russia –
keeps he membe s a es in Russia’s o bi .
Russia has epea edly demons a ed i s
willingness o employ economic means o
poli ical ends owa ds coun ies inside and
ou side he EEU, whe he by h ea ening o
dis up exis ing ies o p omising o expand
hem. Fo example, when Russian heal h,
ood sa e y o consume p o ec ion agencies
iden i y de iciencies in speci ic impo ed
p oduc s his o en signals an imminen
de e io a ion o bila e al ela ions. Posi i e
incen i es a e also employed, as in Mos-
cow’s decision o eins a e ex ended isa-
ee access o Geo gian labou mig an s
jus weeks be o e he 2024 Geo gian pa lia-
men a y elec ions.
As well as le e aging economic ela ions,
Russia wo ks o sus ain exis ing cul u al
ies. Russian mino i ies play an impo an
ole in ce ain coun ies. In no he n
Kazakhs an, o example, hey make up a
signi ican pa o he popula ion and a e
po en ially suscep ible o Russian p opa-
ganda. The e, he sha ed O hodox ai h
o e s po en ial o p ojec Russian so
powe , which also applies o p edominan ly
o hodox Geo gia. P o-Russian sympa hies
a e o en s ill s ong among he olde gen-
e a ion. These sympa hies a e oo ed in a
pe sis en image – da ing om he So ie -
e a – which asc ibes a p i ileged s a us o
he e s while me opoli an co e, and in a
collec i e bu ul ima ely Russi ied So ie
cul u e. Sha ed memo y and i uals e oke
deep ies, in pa icula in connec ion wi h
he So ie ic o y o e Nazi Ge many in he
“G ea Pa io ic Wa ”. This is bols e ed by
he Russian language, which s ill se es as
lingua anca in many pos -So ie coun-
ies, no ably among e hnic mino i ies; in
some o hem i is s ill an o icial language
(Kazakhs an, Ky gyzs an and Tajikis an).
Russia is keen o main ain his s a us, o
example by p o iding Russian ex books
and eache s. A common language also
eases he ansmission o Russian in e -
p e a ions o egional and global de elop-
men s o audiences in he pos -So ie Sou h
by Russian media channels and in e ne
ou le s. Na u ally, hese may also be used
o dissemina e a ge ed disin o ma ion. The
p e alence o he Russian language also
acili a es educa ional exchanges and s udy
a Russian uni e si ies.
Alongside empo a y and seasonal labou
mig a ion, qui e subs an ial diaspo as om
Russia’s sou he n neighbou s c ea e an
impo an laye o people- o-people con-
ac s. The numbe o Tajik mig an s alone
was 1.2 million in 2023. Many households
in Cen al Asia and he Sou h Caucasus de-
pend on emi ances om amily membe s
wo king empo a ily o pe manen ly in
Russia. Mig a ion- ela ed dependencies may
ac o es ain o discipline go e nmen s
ea ul o epe cussions o hei emig an
communi ies in Russia. Fo example, a e
SWP Commen 58
Decembe 2024
3
he Islamis a ack on C ocus Ci y Hall in
Ma ch 2024, which in ol ed Tajik na ion-
als, Russia expelled la ge numbe s o Tajik
mig an s and igh ened i s mig a ion ules.
Tajikis an was le wi h no choice bu o
accep he si ua ion.
The p o ac ed con lic s in he Sou h
Caucasus shape ela ions and c ea e a pa -
icula dimension o le e age. In he con-
ex o he A menian-Aze baijani con lic ,
Russian in luence has declined since Aze -
baijan’s ic o y in he Second Ka abakh
Wa o 2020, i s e-es ablishmen o ull
con ol o e he egion in 2023, and he
subsequen ea ly wi hd awal o he Russian
“peacekeepe s”. Bu Russia s ill has boo s
on he g ound in Abkhazia and Sou h
Osse ia, he wo b eakaway en i ies ha
slipped om Geo gia’s con ol, and con-
inues o seek o expand i s in luence he e.
Agains he backd op o i s con lic wi h
Aze baijan, A menia long elied on Russia
o secu i y. Signi ican emancipa o y s eps
by Ye e an no wi hs anding, Russia con-
inues o ope a e wo mili a y bases in he
coun y and Russian oops pa ol A me-
nia’s bo de s wi h I an and Tü kiye. In
Cen al Asia, oo, mili a y coope a ion
se es o a i m Russia’s alliances. As well
as de ence coope a ion in he Collec i e
Secu i y T ea y O ganisa ion (CSTO), Russia
main ains bases in Tajikis an and Ky gyz-
s an and possesses signi ican mili a y
in as uc u e in Kazakhs an. Coope a ion
among he secu i y o gans o a ious Eu -
asian coun ies – including in elligence
and bo de managemen – gene a es a
sha ed esp i de co ps.
These mul i ace ed ies ensu e ha Russia
emains a majo playe in he egion. Ye ,
while Russia’s claims on i s “Nea Ab oad”
a e s ill s ong, i s hegemonic aspi a ions
a e becoming mo e con es ed.
Eu asian empowe men
Du ing mo e han h ee decades o indepen-
dence, he e s while So ie epublics ha e
pu sued a a ie y o pa ne s and ajec o-
ies, ex ending beyond he o me me o-
poli an cen e. The Uni ed S a es and i s
Wes e n allies we e among he i s o
each ou o he newly independen s a es
o he o me Communis bloc. The adop-
ion o libe al no ms, democ a ic e o ms
and ma ke ins umen s backed up by de-
elopmen aid and social bene i s we e seen
as key o mode nising Eu asia and in eg a -
ing i in o he ealm o ee ade and lib-
e al alues. I was Geo gia ha mos deci-
si ely emb aced he Eu o-A lan ic ec o .
The goals o EU and NATO membe ship a e
ensh ined in i s cons i u ion and in Decem-
be 2023 i was accep ed as a candida e o
EU membe ship. A menia’s Comp ehensi e
and Enhanced Pa ne ship Ag eemen wi h
he EU came ully in o o ce in 2021, and
Ye e an ecen ly announced i s in en ion
o seek e en close ela ions wi h he EU.
China’s Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI,
in oduced 2013) has boos ed he mode -
nisa ion o he Cen al Asian economies.
While Beijing’s sway in he Sou h Caucasus
emains mo e limi ed, i ne e heless o e s
an addi ional o eign policy ec o . A he
same ime deepening ela ions wi h he
A ab wo ld and he Middle Eas , economic
coope a ion wi h Sou h-Eas Asian coun-
ies, as well as Tü kiye’s in eg a ion e o s
– bila e ally and wi hin he O ganisa ion
o Tu kic S a es (OTS) – ha e helped o
imp o e Eu asian connec i i y. In Cen al
Asia, he Sou he n o eign policy ec o was
also s eng hened a e he Ame ican wi h-
d awal om A ghanis an in 2021 and he
es ablishmen o ela ions wi h he Taliban,
ad oca ed mainly by he Uzbek go e n-
men . T ade and anspo a ion links o he
Wes h ough he ans-Caspian co ido
a e being upg aded in esponse o shi s in
Eu opean ene gy ma ke s ollowing Russia’s
in asion o Uk aine.
Eu ope’s ques o pa ne s, in pa icula
in Cen al Asia, is embedded in an ene gy
secu i y discou se ha also encompasses
enewables. Coun ies in Cen al Asia and
he Sou h Caucasus demons a e eadiness
o supply he necessa y esou ces (wind and
sola ), wi h he Sou h Caucasus also eage
o p o ide c ucial anspo ou es linking
sou ces and consume s. This cons ella ion
SWP Commen 58
Decembe 2024
4
has spu ed coope a ion among he coun-
ies in ol ed, namely Aze baijan, Geo gia,
Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an. A he same
ime, he Wes e n ec o o e s Eu asian
coun ies he possibili y o balance hei
longs anding dependencies on Russia. E en
hough Russia con inues o play a key ole
in ade in c ude oil and o he commodi ies
and can use i s posi ion o en o ce compli-
ance o punish neighbou s o whose ac ions
i disapp o es, he Uk aine wa and i s
implica ions o ansi and supply ou es
ha e shi ed he balance o powe be ween
he o me cen e and i s pe iphe y.
While Eu opean and Eu asian in e es s
coincide in he ealm o economic di e si-
ica ion, a emp s o achie e compliance
wi h he an i-Russian sanc ions ha e been
less success ul. Go e nmen s in Eu asia
ega d compliance wi h sanc ions as a cos -
bene i ques ion, no a ma e o p inciple.
The egional economies a e in e wo en
wi h Russia’s o an ex en ha makes o -
going es ablished ela ions una ac i e o
big companies and small en ep eneu s
alike. In ac , Eu asian businesses ha e been
in ol ed in e-expo ing sanc ioned goods
and pa allel impo s o Russia. O e all,
ade and business in Eu asia ha e p o i ed
om he Russian and Eu opean e o s o
suppo hei espec i e policies.
The s a egic alue a ached o Eu asia by
majo ou side powe s and he expansion o
ans- egional connec i i y ha e esul ed in
a g owing asse i eness is-à- is Russia,
while Russia’s own in e es in unimpeded
ansi cons ains i s le e age. Moscow
e ains in luence, bu i s expec a ions a e
no longe impe a i e. This was appa en in
he o es on he 2022 UN esolu ions on
Russia’s agg ession, whe e none o he Eu -
asian go e nmen s suppo ed Russia. Open
non-compliance by o mal allies is now an
op ion, as seen when A menia e used o
sign CIS ag eemen s in Oc obe 2024 o
when i e ec i ely oze i s membe ship
o he CSTO. And compliance is less likely
han e e o p eclude he simul aneous
pu sui o o he op ions.
A emp s o enhance egional o ganisa-
ion and coope a ion be ween Cen al Asia
and he Sou h Caucasus a e gaining momen-
um. High-le el exchanges ha e inc eased,
in pa icula be ween he Cen al Asian
coun ies and Aze baijan. Aze baijan’s
P esiden Ilham Aliye pa icipa ed in he
ecen Consul a i e Mee ings o he Cen al
Asian heads o s a es, which ha e been held
egula ly since 2018. Coope a ion in he
mili a y sphe e has also expanded. In July
2024 a med o ces om Aze baijan, Kazakh-
s an, Ky gyzs an, Tajikis an and Uzbekis an
held he Bi les ik-2024 exe cise in Kazakh-
s an. This was he i s ime ha join mili-
a y exe cises ook place in Cen al Asia
wi hou Russian pa icipa ion. I was no
coincidence ha i was conduc ed in he
Caspian Sea egion, which connec s Cen al
Asia and he Caucasus and is c ucial o
ans-con inen al anspo bypassing Russia.
The join exe cise illus a es ha la ge pa s
o he pos -So ie space a e no longe in-
clined o ely on Russia o hei secu i y,
bu a he seek o add ess egional issues
on hei own.
Empowe men om he hegemon is also
d i en by he decolonisa ion discou ses ha
ha e become inc easingly p onounced since
Russia in aded Uk aine. Th oughou Eu -
asia, he e a o poli ical independence and
s a e-building ha ollowed he b eakup o
he So ie Union in ol ed a e-w i ing o
na ional his o ies, bu , wi h he excep ion
o Geo gia, Russia’s ole as an essen ially
“p og essi e” colonial powe was ha dly
ques ioned. This is now changing, mos
no ably in academia. Schola s om he
egion ha e begun o eassess he dominan
na a i es and he So ie legacies embedded
he ein, while simul aneously ques ioning
Wes e n o de s o discou se.
Au ho i a ian egionalism
The ealignmen p ocesses in Eu asia a e
playing ou in a con ex o la gely au ho i-
a ian go e nance. In mos o he egion,
especially in he esou ce- ich economic
powe houses, mode nisa ion has aken he
shape o en ie capi alism. Fo eign in es -
men incen i ised he app op ia ion o
SWP Commen 58
Decembe 2024
5
na u al esou ces, inancial asse s and
mass media by local eli es who used he
e enues mainly o consump ion and
ep esen a ional pu poses a he han
ein es ing hem in he na ional economy.
A he same ime, he sudden access o
in es men s and luc a i e deals o e ed
by in e na ional inancial ins i u ions and
o he ansna ional ac o s enabled local
powe holde s o in eg a e in o global busi-
ness ne wo ks ha allowed asse s o be
mo ed ab oad.
The eli e ne wo ks o pos -So ie Eu asia
end o be closed en i ies. Kazakhs an’s eli e
is essen ially a clus e o inancial and busi-
ness ac o s wi h close connec ions o he
s a e bu eauc acy, while he eli es in Tu k-
menis an, Tajikis an, Uzbekis an and Aze -
baijan a e buil a ound he ule ’s ex ended
amily and hei close allies. Only in Geo -
gia and Ky gyzs an we e he ea ly pos -
So ie ule s o ced ou by mass p o es s,
p e en ing he eme gence o a consolida ed
eli e. In A menia he compa a i ely ecen
“Vel e Re olu ion” b ough a e o m-
minded go e nmen o powe .
Al hough all go e nmen s in he pos -
So ie s a es o Eu asia a e o mally com-
mi ed o democ a ic p inciples, he demo-
c a ic ans o ma ion o en emained a
ma ginal issue, he p ese e o Wes e n
ac o s and local NGOs dependen on ex e -
nal unding. While he eli es welcomed he
ee ma ke , poli ical libe alism has la gely
been pe cei ed as an alien ideology. O e
ime, he egion’s au ho i a ian leade s
ha e lea ned how o e ec i ely wa d o
such unwan ed in luence. E en Ky gyzs an
and Geo gia, as e s while “islands o democ-
acy”, ha e seen illibe al d i . In Ky gyz-
s an he e u n o au oc acy was acili a ed
by a ge ed social media mobilisa ion, while
he Geo gian D eam pa y has le e aged
an i-libe al pos u es o build i s elec o al
cons i uency and u ned o au ho i a ian
p ac ices o secu e i s hold on powe .
In many pa s o Eu asia, he pe sis ence
o au ho i a ian cons i uencies is os e ed
by social no ms ha ewa d comp omise
and consensus while punishing de ia ion.
Such no ms a e essen ialised as “ adi ion”
by mains eam poli icians and in ellec uals
and ein o ced by he e e -close alignmen
o Eu asian egimes wi h each o he and
wi h pa ne s ha sha e simila no ms,
such as Tü kiye, China and he Gul s a es.
Amids he g owing asse i eness o he
Global Sou h, he p oli e a ing in e ac ions
wi hin Eu asia a e ein o cing pe cep ions
o collec i e agency. This has u he educed
incen i es o poli ical e o m and is a ou -
ing au ho i a ian egime consolida ion.
The demons a ion o agency is unde -
pinned by a emp s o shape collec i e iden-
i ies – i only o se e pa icula in e es s.
Local ac o s inc easingly d aw on alues o
he ongoing alignmen p ocesses in Eu asia.
The six h Consul a i e Mee ing o he heads
o s a e o Cen al Asia in Augus 2024 was
some hing o a miles one in his ega d,
wi h an o icial p oposal o de elop a “pan-
egional iden i y in Cen al Asia”. Uzbeki-
s an’s P esiden Sha ka Mi ziyoye sug-
ges ed a ca alogue o conc e e s eps o p op-
aga e he idea among s akeholde s, a ge -
ing in pa icula he egion’s young gene a-
ion. Cen al Asia has been he main poin
o e e ence. The con ou s o an “imagined
communi y” o so s, occupying a common
his o ical, cul u al and geopoli ical space,
a e no con ined o he i e Cen al Asian
coun ies, hough, wi h Aze baijan’s P esi-
den Aliye , who joined he mee ing as a
gues o honou , poin ing o sha ed his o y,
cul u e, eligion and alues.
Coope a ion wi hin Cen al Asia is d i en
by Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an, which ha e
inc easingly synch onised hei egional
policies since he signing o a T ea y on
Alliance Rela ions in Decembe 2022.
Judging by he g owing numbe o high-
le el in e ac ions i can be assumed ha
Kazakh P esiden Kassym-Joma Tokaye ’s
call, a he 2024 Consul a i e Mee ing, o
c ea e a egional de ence and secu i y a chi-
ec u e was coo dina ed wi h his Uzbek
coun e pa . This does no imply he c ea-
ion o a new mili a y alliance. Bu , as
Uzbekis an’s P esiden Mi ziyoye laid ou
a he CIS summi in Moscow in Oc obe
2024, i does mean s epping up measu es
such as sys ema ic coope a ion be ween
SWP Commen 58
Decembe 2024
6
secu i y o ces and o he ele an agencies
– which would also include Russia’s.
Regional coope a ion is inc easingly
shaped by so e eign is and non-in e e -
ence discou ses. This expedi es au ho i a i-
an o ms o egionalism, o he exclusion o
Wes e n ac o s and hei ans o ma ional
agendas. One example is he 3+3 pla o m
ini ia ed by Aze baijan and Tü kiye ollow-
ing he 2020 A menian-Aze baijani wa . I
b ings he h ee s a es o he Sou h Cauca-
sus coun ies oge he wi h Russia, I an and
Tü kiye as he h ee egional – and e s -
while impe ial – powe s. Only h ee mee -
ings ha e been held o da e and Geo gia is
abs aining, so he pla o m is wo k-in-p og-
ess. While he e a e signi ican di e ences,
he lowes common denomina o o he
pla o m’s p oponen s appea s o be o
keep he Eu opean Union and he Uni ed
S a es ou .
Regional ealignmen – e en i i in-
ol es se ing up new o ma s and adap ing
exis ing ones – mus no be con used wi h
bo om-up p ocesses o egional in eg a-
ion. Ye , al hough he new pla o ms and
e o s o p omo e egional iden i ies a e
la gely pe o ma i e in cha ac e , hey do
p o ide egional eli es wi h op ions o
u he expand hei oom o manoeu e,
no leas by p o iding addi ional enues o
manage and ad ance bila e al ies.
Eu ope and i s discon en s
The enewed Eu opean ou each o Eu asia
has inc eased he ba gaining powe o he
coun ies along he ans-Caspian co ido .
Al hough Moscow s ill ies o uphold Rus-
sian hegemony in he pos -So ie Sou h,
his is inc easingly challenged om wi hin
he egion. Tha does no mean ha hese
coun ies a e d awing close o he Eu o-
pean Union, howe e , le alone seeking
in eg a ion. No does i e en necessa ily
ansla e in o he EU (o he Wes mo e
b oadly) being pe cei ed mo e a ou ably.
In i s a emp o o e come i s eliance
on Russia, he A menian go e nmen has
announced i s in en ion o seek close ela-
ions wi h he EU. A numbe o conc e e
s eps ha e been aken, such as he launch
o a isa libe alisa ion dialogue and A me-
nia’s inclusion in he Eu opean Peace
Facili y. Ye he EU’s a ac i eness is ques-
ioned in many coun ies in he pos -So ie
Sou h, including A menia, and i s in luence
o en cons ained. On he one hand, he
EU’s ole in he egion has been challenged
by na ional eli es and igh -wing, na ional-
is and conse a i e pa s o socie y. Echo-
ing he deepening o au ho i a ianism and
he poli ical eli es’ igh ening g ip on s a e
and socie y, EU policies seeking o os e
human igh s o s eng hen democ a ic
p ac ices and he ule o law a e dismissed
as in e e ence in domes ic a ai s. The EU’s
p omo ion o mino i y igh s, including
hose o sexual mino i ies, is o en singled
ou o demons a e he i econcilabili y o
he EU’s no ms wi h hose o he na ion.
The EU’s policies a e po ayed as inimical
o na ional alues, adi ions and belie s.
An i-libe al poli ics challenges he alidi y
o “No ma i e Powe Eu ope” ou side he
EU’s bo de s. This de elopmen is e en
obse ed in Geo gia. Un il ecen ly i was
he egion’s likelies candida e o EU in-
eg a ion, bu o la e i s uling eli e has
become ou spokenly c i ical o he EU and
e ec i ely pu EU in eg a ion on hold.
On he o he hand, he EU’s in e nal
di icul ies wi h indi idual membe s a es
con a ening i s own p inciples ha e led o
allega ions o hypoc isy and con ibu ed o
a c edibili y gap. The EU’s inconsis en ap-
plica ion o i s alue-d i en o eign policy
only ein o ces pe cep ions ha ealpoli ik
umps no ma i e p inciples when in he
EU’s in e es s. This unde mines accep ance
o he EU’s p ojec ed sel -image as an e hi-
cal and mo al leade among egional pa -
ne s. The EU’s demands o e o m and
condi ionali y a e inc easingly challenged,
wi h complain s o bias and double s an-
da ds ci cula ing e en among milieus ha
he EU would ega d as i s allies, such as
libe al-minded NGOs and ci il socie y. The
ise o decolonial discou ses has only
s eng hened c i icisms o he EU and i s
conduc in he egion. In e es ingly, hese
SWP Commen 58
Decembe 2024
7
same discou ses ha e been ein o ced by
ising c i ique o Russian colonialism and
neo-impe ialism ollowing i s in asion o
Uk aine.
E en whe e he Eu opean Union is seen
as he p e e ed de elopmen model, i s
demands o bu densome e o ms and he
slow pace (o indeed lack o ) economic
bene i s and p ospe i y gains ha e aised
ques ions o e one o he EU’s s onges
pull- ac o s, he p ospec o economic bene-
i s. Fo example, he EU’s ee ade ag ee-
men wi h Geo gia (DCFTA), has allen sho
o expec a ions since i came in o o ce in
2016.
The challenge o adap ing
The ongoing econ igu a ion in Eu asia has
many ec o s. I is no an en i ely ecen
phenomenon, no does i a ec he egion
uni o mly. The changing s a us o Russia is
one common denomina o , he u u e
shape o which will depend on how Russia
eme ges om i s wa agains Uk aine. E en
i Russia con inues o claim a hegemonic
posi ion and ep esen s an impo an powe
o eckon wi h o all he Eu asian coun-
ies, he pos -So ie Sou h is emancipa ing
i sel . While hey hemsel es seek o in en-
si y bila e al ela ions wi h hi d coun ies,
ex e nal playe s, in pa icula China and
Tü kiye, ha e inc easingly ac i ely pu sued
hei own in e es s in he egion. Tü kiye in
pa icula seems o aspi e o he ole o an
al e na i e egional hegemon on he basis
o his o ical and linguis ic ies.
This has changed he ho izons o he Eu -
asian coun ies, wi h he pos -So ie aspec
slowly ading and he egion becoming pa
o mul iple a angemen s and imagina ies,
such as he Shanghai Coope a ion O ga-
nisa ion, he Bel and Road Ini ia i e, he
O ganisa ion o Tu kic S a es, e en he
Middle Eas . The EU has s eng hened ela-
ions wi h Cen al Asia and in pa icula
he Sou h Caucasus h ough i s connec i i y
policy, Pa ne ship and Coope a ion Ag ee-
men s, he Eas e n Pa ne ship and especial-
ly he associa ion and (mos ecen ly) in e-
g a ion acks. Ye i is no necessa ily seen
as he pa ne o choice. Fo mos o he
egion’s go e nmen s – and depending on
de elopmen s in Geo gia, pe haps ul ima e-
ly all o hem – B ussels is bu one ec o
among o he s. I is hus an op ion o di e -
si ica ion a he han a g a i a ional o ce.
Fo one, he EU lacks a ack- eco d as a
secu i y ac o , no ably when i comes o
ha d secu i y. While he EU’s mili a y sup-
po o Uk aine cons i u es a d ama ic
depa u e om ea lie policies, i is highly
unlikely o se e as a bluep in o b oade
engagemen in he Eu asian space. Second,
he EU’s p oclaimed hallma ks o democ a-
cy, libe al alues and a ma ke economy
based on ule-o -law a e no ega ded as
a ac i e in mos o Eu asia, in pa icula
on he pa o poli ical and economic eli es
who see comp ehensi e e o ms as a h ea
o hei powe base. Ra he han p o iding
oppo uni ies o he EU o expand i s e-
la ions wi h he Eu asian s a es, he cu en
econ igu a ion p ocesses end owa ds
au ho i a ian egionalism.
B ussels mus ake hese shi ing condi-
ions and i s pa ne s’ pe cep ions o he
EU – bo h a he le el o leade ship and
socie y – in o accoun when c a ing i s
own policies owa ds he egion and indi-
idual coun ies. The cu en p ocesses do
no au oma ically signal sh inking scope
o in e ac ion. Bu p oduc i e engagemen
–le alone e ec i e policy con e gence –
will become mo e challenging. I will e-
qui e a mo e cohe en app oach owa ds
indi idual coun ies and sub- egions wi hin
Eu asia. To his end, he EU’s expec a ions
is-à- is Eu asia will need o be e isi ed –
and possibly eadjus ed. This mus begin
wi h a sobe assessmen o he EU’s own
posi ion, i s ins umen s and he esou ces
i is willing and able o in es . Such a e iew
should be guided by a holis ic iew and
in eg a ed assessmen in a apidly changing
en i onmen .
D And ea Schmi z and D F anziska Smolnik a e Senio Fellows in he Eas e n Eu ope and Eu asia
Resea ch Di ision a SWP.
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2024C58
