Kuné, Jan B.
A icle
S udies on he Rela ionship be ween Social Secu i y and
Pe sonal Sa ing. A Tabula Su ey
K edi und Kapi al
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kuné, Jan B. (1983) : S udies on he Rela ionship be ween Social Secu i y and
Pe sonal Sa ing. A Tabula Su ey, K edi und Kapi al, ISSN 0023-4591, Duncke & Humblo , Be lin,
Vol. 16, Iss. 3, pp. 371-380,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.16.3.371
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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S udies on he Rela ionship
be ween Social Secu i y and Pe sonal Sa ing
A Tabula Su ey
By Jan B. Kune, Ams e dam
I. In oduc ion
The pas decade has wi nessed an inc eased deba e on he ques ion
whe he he social secu i y sys em1 has a nega i e impac on p i a e sa ing.
Reduced p i a e sa ing induces a capi al sho all and inhibi s g ow h in
p oduc i i y. Pa icula ly since he publica ion o Felds ein's 1974 - s udy
he e ec s o social secu i y on p i a e sa ing ha e been he subjec o a s ill
ongoing esea ch con o e sy. In his s udy Felds ein claims ha his empi -
ical analysis o Uni ed S a es ime se ies da a o he pe iod 1929 - 1971
sugges s ha he social secu i y p og am has educed p i a e sa ing by 38
pe cen in 1971. In a clima e o anxie y o e a capi al sho age his es ima e
aised se ious ques ions abou he economic consequences o he in oduc-
ion and u he g ow h o a social secu i y p og am2.
This pape e iews he empi ical con en o he mos impo an s udies
ca ied ou o he Uni ed S a es, Canada and six Eu opean coun ies deal-
ing wi h he impac o public social secu i y on agg ega e pe sonal sa ing.
Theo e ical conside a ions a e le aside.
II. Empi ical S udies
By including social secu i y Felds ein has ex ended he li e cycle/pe ma-
nen income heo y o Ando and Modigliani [1963], Modigliani and B um-
be g [1954] and F iedman [1957] in an impo an way. Felds ein concludes
1 Social secu i y gene ally includes old-age, su i o s and disabili y p og ams.
2 A e iew o he capi al sho age li e a u e is ound in Eisne [1977]. See also on
Fii s enbe g and Malkiel [1977] and Felds ein [19771]. Pogue and Sgon z [1977] a gue
ha he U.S. social secu i y sys em has p o ided an incen i e o one gene a ion o
sa e o e i emen by in es ing in he human capi al o he nex gene a ion.
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372 Jan B. Kune
ha he in oduc ion and g ow h o a pay-as-you-go social secu i y sys em
would dep ess pe sonal sa ing and hence na ional capi al o ma ion3. Indi-
iduals iew an icipa ed social secu i y bene i s du ing e i emen as a sub-
s i u e o hei own p e e i emen sa ing and hus a e less mo i a ed o
sa e du ing hei wo king yea s o p o ide o e i emen consump ion. This
e ec is called he sa ing eplacemen e ec . On he o he hand, howe e ,
sa ing is inc eased because o he "induced e i emen e ec " o he sys em:
social secu i y bene i s encou age ea lie e i emen , he eby inc easing
sa ing. The e ec o he social secu i y p og am on pe sonal sa ing is he e-
o e heo e ically ambiguous. Ba o added o his a u he sou ce o
ambigui y. He poin ed ou ha he ins i u ion o a social secu i y p og am
migh eplace an exis ing sys em o in a amily (in e gene a ional) ans-
e s. To he ex en ha social secu i y bene i s esul in o se ing adjus -
men s in p i a e ans e s - educed ans e s om child en o hei aged
pa en s o inc eased beques s om pa en s o hei child en - he e ec on
p i a e sa ing would be diminished.
The au ho s included in his su ey conside al e na i e de ini ions o
sa ing (consump ion) and use a ious unc ional o ms o he sa ing (con-
sump ion) unc ion o di e en ime pe iods encompassing a a he wide
ange o explana o y a iables. Among hese a iables a e cu en and lag-
ged disposable income, pe manen income, ansi o y income, e ained
ea nings, household weal h, he s ock o household du ables, human capi al,
o he pension und weal h, he unemploymen a e, a ious in e es a es,
he labou o ce pa icipa ion a e o he aged, go e nmen su plus, eal
money balances and o he s.
Va iables assumed o ep esen he in luence o he social secu i y sys em
a e, (1) g oss social secu i y weal h (SSWG), i.e. he p esen alue o
expec ed u u e social secu i y bene i s ha can be claimed by all hose who
a e ei he in he labou o ce o al eady e i ed, (2) ne social secu i y weal h
(SSWN), i.e. g oss social secu i y weal h minus he p esen alue o social
secu i y con ibu ions o be paid by hose who a e cu en ly in he labou
3 In his su ey only s udies dealing wi h he impac o un unded public social sec-
u i y p og ams on sa ing a e conside ed. The in luence o p i a e pensions on sa ing
is conside ed by Cagan [1965], Ka ona [1965], Felds ein [1978] and Munnell [1976,
1980]. Cagan and Ka ona ound ha people co e ed by p i a e pensions did no
educe hei sa ing bu a he sa ed mo e han people no co e ed. Cagan explained
his esul s in e ms o a ecogni ion
e ec :
pension plans di ec a en ion o e i emen
needs. Ka ona added o his a second explana ion, he goal g adien hypo hesis:
people inc ease hei sa ing e o s he close he da a o e i emen . The s udies o
Felds ein and Munnell e eal ha educed p i a e sa ing is o se by inc eased pen-
sion sa ing by a small amoun .
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Rela ionship be ween Social Secu i y and Pe sonal Sa ing 373
o ce, (3) social secu i y con ibu ions (SSC) and (4) social secu i y bene i s
(SSB). I will be clea ha he a iables SSWG and SSWN a e jus ic ional
quan i ies.
I should be kep in mind ha he o m and speci ica ion o he sa ing o
consump ion unc ion used by an au ho is only one o many al e na i es
ha could ha e been chosen. Ca e ully sc u inizing he wo k o di e en
in es iga o s e eals ha es ima ion esul s a e o en e y sensi i e o
changes in speci ica ion.
In o de o educe mul icollinea i y p oblems mos au ho s use se ies in
cons an dolla s and on a pe capi a basis o use he a io's o ele an quan-
i ies o na ional income. All au ho s, excep Gul enkin and Logue use
yea ly da a, which makes i less meaning ul o ake in o accoun he possi-
bili y o sho - e m disequilib ia o , in o he wo ds, he possibili y ha
ac ual sa ing di e s om desi ed sa ing. All au ho s excep he ones o he
On a io-s udy use a single-equa ion app oach and o dina y leas squa es.
The es ima ion esul s a e he e o e subjec o possible simul aneous equa-
ion bias. The On a io-s udy uses a simul aneous equa ions model ha is
comp ised o wo s uc u al equa ions, he dependen a iables being he
sa ing o he households and he labou - o ce pa icipa ion o he aged.
The able below summa izes he mos impo an ime-se ies s udies ca -
ied ou o he Uni ed S a es, Canada and six Eu opean coun ies4. A en-
ion is only gi en o he sign and signi icance o he coe icien o he social
secu i y a iable. Un o una ely i was no possible o calcula e elas ici ies.
F om each au ho we choose hose equa ions which a e in ou iew mos
cha ac e is ic o on which he au ho himsel places mos in e es .
4 S udies on he ela ionship be ween social secu i y and p i a e sa ing ac oss
coun ies ha e been ca ied ou e.g. by Felds ein [1977n, 1980], Ba o and McDonald
[1979] and Kopi s and Go u [1980]. Felds ein concludes ha his indings con i m he
hypo hesis o a nega i e in luence o public social secu i y on pe sonal sa ing,
whe eas he esul s o Ba o and McDonald and Kopi s and Go u do no suppo ha
hypo hesis. The di e gence o pa ame e es ima es o Felds ein and Ba o and
McDonald is discussed by Ho ioka [1980]. C oss-sec ion analyses o indi idual house-
holds a a poin in ime o he U.S. ha e been ca ied ou e.g. by Munnell [1976],
Felds ein [1976], Felds ein and Pellechio [1979] and Ko liko [19791]. The indings o
Munnell, Felds ein and Felds ein and Pellechio sugges ha he e is a nega i e impac
o public social secu i y on sa ing, whe eas he e idence o Ko liko indica es incon-
clusi eness. A use ul e iew o c oss-sec ion analyses o he Uni ed S a es is gi en by
Danzinge e al. [1981]. The main conclusion o G een [1981] o he Uni ed Kingdom
is ha pension sa ing does no subs i u e wi h o he ypes o sa ing. Agains his
Schoeplein [1970] ound in Canada some e idence o subs i u abili y be ween pen-
sions and o he e i emen sa ing.
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374 Jan B. Kune
1. Uni ed S a es
Felds ein [1974] uses agg ega e ime-se ies da a o he pe iod 1929 -
1971. His es ima es a e based on a li e-cycle model including g oss and ne
social secu i y weal h in u n5. The eg ession coe icien ound on SSWG
o he en i e pe iod has he igh sign and is highly signi ican . Howe e ,
his coe icien is no signi ican when he equa ion is es ima ed o he
pos wa pe iod 1947 - 1971. Mo e impo an , he esul ound o he en i e
pe iod depends c i ically upon dele ing he unemploymen e m om he
equa ion. This howe e does no appea jus i ied. Ko liko [197911] no es
ha he e ec o he implied dec ease in sa ing on he a e o e u n on cap-
i al should be aken in o accoun .
Munnell [1974] uses agg ega e ime-se ies da a o he pe iod 1900 - 1971.
He es ima es a e also based on he li e-cycle model. Va iables measu ing
he e ec o social secu i y a e g oss and ne social secu i y weal h and
social secu i y con ibu ions. Fu he mo e a a iable ep esen ing he
induced e i emen e ec is included, which howe e appea s ne e o be
signi ican . The social secu i y a iables a e no signi ican in explaining
pe sonal sa ing du ing he whole pe iod; he a iable SSWN is signi ican
in one case o he pos wa pe iod 1949 - 1969. Al hough agg ega e pe sonal
sa ing is no a ec ed, social secu i y seems o ha e an impac on he ype o
sa ing.
Ba o [1978] uses agg ega e ime-se ies da a o he pe iod 1929 - 1974.
His unc ion is also inspi ed by he li e-cycle model. A new a iable used o
measu e he e ec o social secu i y is he bene i -co e age, which appea s
ne e o be signi ican . The unemploymen a iable is always signi ican ,
whe eas he SSWG a iable is no signi ican in all pe iods analyzed excep
when he unemploymen e m is dele ed.
Da by [1979] uses ime-se ies da a o he pe iod 1929 - 1974 and he
unc ions he es ima es a e based on he pe manen income hypo hesis. The
SSWG and SSWN a iables seem o be signi ican in explaining pe sonal
sa ing du ing he whole pe iod, bu Da by himsel is doub ul on his esul
because o speci ica ion e o s. Reg essions un o he pos wa pe iod 1947
- 1974 ne e show a posi i e o nega i e e ec o social secu i y on sa ing.
Gul enkin and Logue [1979] i s use yea ly ime-se ies da a o he pos -
wa pe iod. In one o wo cases he SSC a iable appea s o be signi ican .
5 Though Felds ein's heo e ical o mula ion clea ly ecognizes he induced e i e-
men e ec o social secu i y, he e is no a iable explici ly designed o accoun o i
in his speci ica ion.
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Rela ionship be ween Social Secu i y and Pe sonal Sa ing 375
The coe icien o SSWN is ne e signi ican . Nex he au ho s es ima e
some sa ing equa ions based on a s ock adjus men model using qua e ly
da a o he pe iod 1952: III-1974: II. The long- un e ec s o social secu i y
appea o be nega i e o he en i e pe iod and wo chosen subpe iods.
Un o una ely s anda d e o s o he long- e m coe icien s a e no gi en.
Leime and Lesnoy [1982] disco e ed an e o in Felds ein's cons uc ion
o he SSWG a iable. The esul s o he au ho s based on he Felds ein
eplica a iables do no p o ide s a is ically signi ican suppo o he
hypo hesis ha social secu i y dec eased pe sonal sa ing. Leime and Les-
noy also de eloped a ious al e na i e SSWG a iables. The coe icien s a e
gene ally insigni ican and (in he au ho s' iew) o he w ong (posi i e)
sign.
2. Canada
Boyle and Mu ay [1974] use annual ime-se ies da a o he pe iod 1954
- 1975. Also hei sa ing unc ion is inspi ed by he li e-cycle model. The
SSWG a iable appea s no o be signi ican in any o he equa ions es i-
ma ed. In a s udy o he Go e nmen o On a io [1977] a sa ing unc ion and
a e i emen unc ion a e es ima ed simul aneously o he pe iod 1953 -
1975. The social secu i y a iable used he e is eal go e nmen public pen-
sion bene i s pe aged eligible indi idual. The indings a e ha he e is no
signi ican in luence o his a iable on pe sonal sa ing.
3. England
Hemming [1978] ex ends Felds ein's s udy o England o he pe iod 1949
- 1973. One o he explana o y a iables is expec ed income, which is
app oxima ed by an in ini e geome ically declining lag on pas incomes.
The coe icien o SSWG is ound o be insigni ican , whe eas ha o he
SSWN a iable is signi ican and has a posi i e sign.
4. Sweden
The model o Ma kowski and Palme [1979] employs o he pe iod 1952
- 1975 he amewo k o he pe manen income hypo hesis o iginally o mu-
la ed by F iedman. Expec ed pension bene i s a e used as he social secu i y
a iable. This a iable becomes signi ican in he equa ion on which he
au ho s hemsel es place mos in e es . I appea s howe e ha educed
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376 Jan B. Kune
pe sonal sa ing is mo e han o se by inc eased pension sa ing, since he
Swedish pension scheme is pa ially unded.
5. Ge many (FR)
P a , Hu le and Denne lein [1979] conside he pos wa pe iods 1958
(1964) - 1975. Social secu i y bene i s and con ibu ions a e used as a i-
ables e lec ing he in luence o he social secu i y sys em. Thei main ind-
ing is ha he empi ical e idence indica es ha ei he no e ec exis s a all
o else ha i would end o be negligible.
6. F ance
Kessle , Masson and S auss-Kahn [1980] ex end he li e-cycle model
s udies o Felds ein and Munnell o F ance o he pe iod 1959 - 1977. Wi h
espec o he SSWG a iable he indings a e inconclusi e. The a iable
SSC also does no seem o exe a signi ican in luence.
7. Belgium
Pes ieau and Pe elman [1980] pe o m he same calcula ions as he abo e
men ioned au ho s o Belgium o he pe iod 1962- 1977. Thei indings a e
ha he e is nei he a nega i e no a posi i e in luence o social secu i y on
na ional sa ing.
8. Ne he lands
Kune [1981] in es iga es he impac o social secu i y on pe sonal sa ing
o he pe iod 1952 - 1978. I appea s ha no unambiguous empi ical sup-
po can be ound o he hypo hesis o a nega i e e ec o social secu i y on
pe sonal sa ing.
m. Conclusions
In his pape he empi ical esul s o he majo s udies ha in es iga e he
e ec o social secu i y on agg ega e pe sonal sa ing in he Uni ed S a es,
Canada and six Eu opean coun ies a e e iewed. The su ey is summa ized
in abula o m.
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Rela ionship be ween Social Secu i y and Pe sonal Sa ing 377
The E ec o Social Secu i y on Pe sonal Sa ing
coun y au ho (s) pe ioda)
social
secu i y
a iable e idence b)
Uni ed Felds ein 1929- 1971 SSWG signi ican
S a es 1947 - 1971 SSWG no signi ican
Munnell 1900- 1971 SSC no signi ican
1929 - 1969 SSWG no signi ican
1929 - 1969 SSWN no signi ican
1946 - 1971 SSC no signi ican
1946- 1969 SSWG no signi ican
1946- 1969 SSWN signi ican
Ba o 1929 - 1974 SSWG no signi ican
1947 - 1974 SSWG no signi ican
Da by 1929 - 1974 SSC no signi ican
1929 - 1974 SSWG signi ican
1929 - 1974 SSWN signi ican
1947 - 1974 SSC no signi ican
1947 - 1974 SSWG no signi ican
1947 - 1974 SSWN no signi ican
Gul enkin 1947 - 1974 SSWN no signi ican
and Logue 1947 - 1974 SSC signi ican
1952:111- 1974:11 SSWN unknown
and wo SSC unknown
subpe iods
Leime and Lesnoy 1930 - 1974 SSWG no signi ican
1930 - 1974 SSWN no signi ican
1947 - 1974 SSWG signi ican ,
posi i e sign,
implausible size
1947 - 1974 SSWN implausible size
1930 - 1974 SSWG no signi ican ,
a ian s posi i e sign
1947 - 1974 SSWG
a ian s posi i e sign
Canada Boyle and Mu ay 1954- 1975 SSWG no signi ican
Go . o On a io 1953 - 1975 SSB no signi ican
England Hemming 1949 - 1973 SSWG no signi ican
1949 - 1973 SSWN signi ican ,
posi i e sign
Sweden Ma kowski 1952 - 1975 SSB signi ican
and Palme
signi ican
Ge many P a e al. 1958(1964)-1975 SSC signi ican ,
(FR) posi i e sign
1958(1964)-1975 SSB no signi ican
F ance Kessle e al. 1959 - 1977 SSWG no signi ican
1959 - 1977 SSWG.! signi ican
1959- 1977 SSC no signi ican
Belgium Pes ieau 1962 - 1977 SSWG no signi ican
and Pe elman
Ne he lands Kune 1952 - 1978 SSC no signi ican
a) Excluding he wa yea s 1941 - 1946.
b) Unless o he wise no ed he e is (no ) a signi ican e idence o a nega i e impac
o social secu i y on pe sonal sa ing.
25 K edi und Kapi al 3/1983
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378 Jan B. Kune
The o e all conclusion om he s udies su eyed mus be a nega i e one:
he e idence ound does no p o ide empi ical suppo o he hypo hesis
ha social secu i y dep esses p i a e sa ing. Mo e impo an , he imp es-
sion comes h ough ha ei he a posi i e o a nega i e social secu i y e ec
on sa ing can be p oduced depending on he de ails o speci ica ion and he
leng h o he obse a ional pe iod. The s udies which gi e suppo o he
hypo hesis o a nega i e impac o social secu i y lose much o hei alidi y
a e ca e ul in e p e a ion6.
The e a e many p oblems o economic concep ion, s a is ical heo y and
da a cha ac e is ics ha se e ely limi he eliabili y o he es ima es o he
e ec o social secu i y on sa ing. Fu he mo e, we a e inclined o conclude
ha he mo i es o sa ing a e much mo e complex han hose pos ula ed
wi hin he con ex o he li e cycle model. The inconclusi e esul s ound by
many au ho s may hus be consis en wi h he iew ha he li e cycle model
does no p o ide an adequa e explana ion o he indi idual's sa ing
beha io .
Re e ences
Ando, A. and F. Modigliani: The 'Li e Cycle' Hypo hesis o Sa ing: Agg ega e
Implica ions and Tes s, Ame ican Economic Re iew, 53, 1963, pp. 53 - 84. - Ba o, R.
J.: The Impac o Social Secu i y on P i a e Sa ing, Ame ican En e p ise Ins i u e o
Public Policy Resea ch, Washing on, D.C., 1978. - Ba o, R. J. and G. M. McDonald:
Social Secu i y and Consume Spending in an In e na ional C oss Sec ion, Jou nal o
Public Economics, 11, 1979, pp. 275 - 89. - Boyle, P. and J. Mu ay: Social Secu i y
Weal h and P i a e Sa ing in Canada, The Canadian Jou nal o Economics, 12, 1979,
pp. 456 - 68. - Cagan, Ph.: The E ec o Pension Plans on Agg ega e Sa ings,
Na ional Bu eau o Economic Resea ch, New Yo k, 1965. - Danzige , S., Ha eman, R.
and R. Plo nick: How Income T ans e P og ams A ec Wo k, Sa ings and he
Income Dis ibu ion: A C i ical Re iew, Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e, 19, 1981, pp.
975 - 1028. - Da by, M. R.: The E ec s o Social Secu i y on Income and he Capi al
S ock, Ame ican En e p ise Ins i u e o Public Policy Resea ch, Washing on, D.C.,
1979. - Eisne , R.: Capi al Sho age: My h and Reali y, Ame ican Economic Re iew,
67, Pape s and P oceedings, 1977, pp. 110 - 15. - Esposi o, L.: E ec o Social Sec-
u i y on Sa ing: Re iew o S udies Using U.S. Time-Se ies Da a, Social Secu i y Bul-
le in, May 1978, pp. 9 - 17. - Felds ein, M. S.: Social Secu i y, Induced Re i emen and
Agg ega e Capi al Accumula ion, Jou nal o Poli ical Economy, 82,1974, pp. 905 - 26.
- Felds ein, M. S.: Social Secu i y and he Dis ibu ion o Weal h, Jou nal o he
Ame ican S a is ical Associa ion, 71, dec. 1976, pp. 800 - 07. - Felds ein, M. S.:
Na ional Sa ing in he Uni ed S a es, In: Capi al o P oduc i i y and Jobs, eds. E.
Shapi o and W. L. Whi e, P en ice Hall, Englewood Cli s, N.J., 19771. - Felds ein, M.
6 This conclusion eme ges also om heo e ical conside a ions and om wo o he
ypes o empi ical e idence ha a e p esen ly a ailable: c oss coun y s udies and
analyses o indi idual c oss-sec ions.
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.16.3.371 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 12:49:16