Johnson, Ha y G.
A icle
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade
K edi und Kapi al
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Johnson, Ha y G. (1975) : An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional
T ade, K edi und Kapi al, ISSN 0023-4591, Duncke & Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 8, Iss. 4, pp. 433-449,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/292747
S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen:
Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen
Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den.
Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle
Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich
machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen.
So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen
(insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en,
gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do
genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e.
Te ms o use:
Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal
and schola ly pu poses.
You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o
exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he
in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public.
I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en
Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise
u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence.
h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis
and In e na ional T ade
By Ha y G. Johnson, Chicago, 111.
I is ex emely di icul , e en o hose who we e al eady ma u e and
es ablished economic adul s a he ime, how se led, s able, and i ually
au oma ically g owing in e ms o p oduc i i y, echnological imp o e-
men , and indi idual s anda ds o li ing he wo ld economy seemed o
be as li le as a decade ago. Employmen was no mally a le els in ex-
cess o he " ull employmen " s anda d o he ea lie pa o he cen-
u y. P oduc i i y — e en in B i ain, he "sick man" o Eu ope — was
ising a a a e well in excess o any ecen sus ained expe ience. And all
his, was occu ing consis en ly wi h a es o p ice inc ease o a ew pe -
cen pe annum, close o he s a is ical ma gin o e o in p ice indexes
and he " h eshold o sensi i i y" o public conce n abou in la ion;
and wi h a s eady educ ion o ba ie s o in e na ional ade and in-
es men (excluding he special case o ag icul u al p o ec ionism). I is
ue, ha he in e na ional mone a y sys em o ixed a es o o eign
exchange based on he use o he U. S. dolla as he wo ld's ese e
cu ency was showing signs o s ain. Bu he e was ample con idence
among he ad anced coun ies ha a new sys em based on an in e -
na ional c edi -based ese e money, and p o iding somewha mo e
lexibili y o exchange a e adjus men , would be e ol ed by in e -
na ional ag eemen in due cou se and in good ime. So a as he less-
de eloped " hi d wo ld" was conce ned, he e o s o excessi e inwa d-
looking p o ec ionism we e coming o be ecognized, as was he necessi y
o shi ing he emphasis o de elopmen policy om indus ializa ion o
inc easing ag icul u al p oduc i i y. Meanwhile, he "g een e olu ion"
held ou he hope o a solu ion o he popula ion p oblem h ough he
de elopmen o accep able p og ams o popula ion con ol being
eached be o e he "classical checks" o s a a ion and mise y came
inexo ably in o play on a se ious scale.
How he wo ld has changed in he in e ening decade! The spec e
o amine in a numbe o he less de eloped coun ies has again aised
28 K edi und Kapi al 4/1975
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
434 Ha y G. Johnson
i s ominous head. While his is no my main heme, i is wo h no ing
ha he humani a ians ha e as usual con used he p oblem o sho age
o ood wi h sho age o esou ces in gene al; and ha an impo an
pa o he p oblem is ine icien anspo sys ems and indi e ence
abou o ine ec i eness in dealing wi h he p oblem o domes ic ood
dis ibu ion on he pa o he go e nmen s and go e ning classes o
he less de eloped coun ies hemsel es. Ne e heless, he e a e ob ious
connec ions be ween he cu en ood p oblems o ce ain less de eloped
coun ies, and he mo e gene al p oblems o in la ion, ecession, and
escala ed oil p ices and ene gy dis u bance. Oil o many such coun ies
seems mo e i al o he u u e han ood i sel . And ce ain sel -cen ed
an i-in la ion policies in he de eloped coun ies ha e ended o dis up
he p oduc ion and in e e e wi h he sha ing h ough in e na ional
ade o po en ially a ailable ood supplies.
The ma e o mo e gene al conce n is ha in la ion on a wo ld basis
has escala ed well in o he wo-digi ange, while a he same ime he
end o unemploymen has been upwa d, culmina ing ecen ly in he
appea ance o some s ong signs, and o e en s onge ea s, o a majo
wo ld dep ession. The p ocess o escala ing in la ion has been d ama-
ized by he collapse o he ixed exchange a e sys em in Feb ua y,
1973, and he adop ion o a loa ing exchange a e sys em igh ly
cha ac e ized a leas in i s ea ly s ages as "a egime o di y loa ing".
In spi e o some o he common a gumen s o loa ing a es as a sa e y
al e o in la ion, wha is gene ally e e ed o as a wo ld in la ion
has con inued on i s me y and e e -magni ying way. Mo e accu a ely,
p ecisely because o widesp ead misunde s anding o wha a loa ing
a e sys em can and canno do, and pa icula ly o he dependence o
wha a loa ing a e does on wha o e all iscal and mone a y policy
he na ional go e nmen s choose o ollow, loa ing exchange a es ha e
no only no been used o comba in la ion, bu ha e ins ead been used
in some coun ies a leas o pe mi in la ion o accele a e while absol -
ing go e nmen s om esponsibili y o i . In he mean ime, bo h he
supe io abili y o loa ing a es o cope wi h in e na ional mone a y
and inancial p oblems, and con inuing in la ion and mo e ecen ly he
ene gy c isis, ha e elega ed o limbo (o o pu ga o y, i you will) he
de e mina ion o es o e a ixed exchange a e sys em su icien ly im-
p o ed o su i e and lou ish o he es o he cen u y.
As i he p oblem o "s ag la ion" — as i came despai ingly o be
called, in he days when people s ill did no know i s -hand wha a
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade 435
eal p oblem o la ge-scale indus ial unemploymen was — we e no
enough o s uggle wi h, he di icul ies and he gloom ha e been as ly
inc eased by he ou - old ise in he p ice o oil ini ia ed in he win e
o 1973 - 74. Adding o he di icul ies associa ed wi h he inc ease in
he oil p ice by i sel ha e been he esul ing unce ain ies abou he
eliabili y o u u e supplies, he inancing o oil de ici s and su pluses,
and he ene gy and balance-o -paymen s policies o he majo non-
O.P.E.C. oil-consuming and -p oducing coun ies; and mo e gene ally,
unce ain ies abou he su i al o a libe al wo ld ade o de . I is
li le wonde , hen, ha public opinion has apidly come o hink o
he 1960s, o he la e i ies and ea ly six ies, as a so o "golden age"
unlikely o be expe ienced again. Some pessimis s indeed a e p epa ed
o asse ha he decline and all o wes e n Eu opean ci iliza ion has
al eady go unde way, and o en isage wi h esigna ion an ine i able
collapse in o ba ba ism. O he s, mo e sanguine and usually younge ,
o esee no hing bu con inuing di icul ies, summa ized in he concep s
o secula in la ion, ano he "g ea dep ession", and a g owing sca ci y
o ene gy equi ing he ans o ma ion o he plane in o a space-ship
economy and ecology.
To unde s and he p oblem o ecen wo ld in la ion i is I belie e
mos illumina ing o see he p oblem in he con ex o igno an manage-
men , o delibe a e mismanagemen , o a sys em o ixed exchange a es
such as he gold s anda d, which s anda d has b oadly p e ailed, wi h
g adual modi ica ions, and occasional dis up ion, up un il 1973. Such a
s anda d, as has o en been said, imposes an au oma ic mone a y disci-
pline on he membe coun ies o he sys em, h ough he need o
main ain balance-o -paymen s equilib ium a he chosen exchange a e.
Bu , con a y o he belie s and asse ions o i s ad oca es, he sys em
imposes no p essu e wha soe e o he main enance o s able p ices in
he wo ld economy. Ins ead, i imposes s ong p essu es on each and
e e y membe coun y o keep in s ep wi h he wo ld a e o in la ion
o de la ion. Tha a e, in u n, is de e mined in b oad e ms by he
g ow h o he supply o in e na ional ese es on he one hand; and on
he o he hand by he g ow h o he demand o such ese es, as de-
e mined by gene al economic g ow h and by inancial inno a ions
economizing on he in e na ional ese es needed o back domes ic
money supplies and he use o c edi in in e na ional paymen s. Re e -
ence o he use o c edi in subs i u ion o ac ual ese es poin s o he
Achilles heel o he sys em. No only does he use o c edi in place o
28*
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
436 Ha y G. Johnson
ac ual money depend on con idence which can be sha e ed and lead
o an in e na ional liquidi y c isis, bu he e is always economic p es-
su e o such subs i u ion because gold is s e ile, equi ing eal esou ces
o mine and yielding no in e es on he esul ing asse , and pape money
cos s no hing o c ea e and can be in es ed in p oduc i e asse s. Fu he ,
a leas un il he in en ion o Special D awing Righ s and mos likely
e en since, he c edi money subs i u e is ine i ably a na ional cu ency,
and i s use is condi ioned by he s a e o gene al con idence in he na ion
whose cu ency is so a ou ed. Thus B i ain in he 1920s was unable o
es o e he ole and leade ship o he pound s e ling in he ac ual
unc ioning o he gold s anda d (" he gold exchange s anda d", as i
has come mo e accu a ely o be e med); and Eu opean na ional i al-
ies combined wi h Ame ican isola ionism and mone a y mismanage-
men o p oduce he in e na ional collapse o he 1930s.
As a esul o ha expe ience, in e na ional mone a y hinking, as
embodied conc e ely in he In e na ional Mone a y Fund, s a ed un-
consciously om he assump ion ha a sho age o in e na ional liqui-
di y was he ch onic weakness o a ixed a e sys em, and mass unem-
ploymen o he 1930s a ie y he majo p oblem o be sol ed by
economic policy. Bu his assump ion o e looked he ac ha he ixed
a e sys em (like any well-concei ed and logical sys em) is i sel neu al,
and simply se es o channel ei he de la iona y o in la iona y dis-
u bances h ough he wo ld economy in a ce ain o de ly way. Thus, in
an impo an sense, wha we ha e been ha ing in he pas decade has
been a " e- un in e e se" o he 1930s — wi h a wo ld in la ion ins ead
o a wo ld de la ion; wi h he weakness o Uni ed S a es mone a y
policy he main sou ce o dis u bance; wi h he Eu opean coun ies
unable o ag ee on he conce ed policy ac ion ha would ei he ha e
sol ed he p oblem globally o isola ed he Uni ed S a es o bea he
ull cos s o i s own policies o mone a y mismanagemen , wi hou in-
ec ing o he s; and wi h he sys em e en ually collapsing unde he
s ain o i s own inne con adic ions in o a egime o di y loa ing o
exchange a es. We can, a his da e, e en ca y he pa allel one s age
u he . Fo in he 1930s, as in he 1970s, coun ies did no in ac use
he eedom o a loa ing exchange a e o pu sue boldly independen
economic policies — a ha ime o economic eco e y and ull em-
ploymen — bu ins ead a emp ed o main ain adi ional o modi ied-
adi ional ela ionships be ween he alues o he domes ic and o eign
cu encies, e en ually winding up a p e y much he same exchange
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32

An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade 437
a e ela ionships as hey had s a ed om. In ac , he main in e -
na ional mone a y accomplishmen o he a ail and su e ing o he
1930s was o emedy he in e na ional liquidi y sho age by aising he
p ice o gold; and i one likes o play wi h his o ical analogies, one
migh ponde he hough ha he main e ec s o wo ld in la ion and
di y loa ing in he 1970s will e en ually come o be seen as a ound-
abou and ine icien means o mopping up excess wo ld liquidi y in he
o m o su plus Uni ed S a es dolla s.
This ema k, howe e , akes us somewha ahead o he main s o y.
Fo oughly wo decades, he es o ed gold exchange s anda d wo ked
su p isingly well, pa ly pe haps because in la iona y policies can be
used o suppo high employmen wi hou omen ing ac ual in la ion
so long as he public con inues o belie e ha s able o alling p ices
a e he his o ical no m. To be mo e p ecise and echnical, he sys em
wo ked well la gely because, by luck a he han conscious managemen ,
he Uni ed S a es main ained easonably s able p ices, while by i ue
o he dominance o he Uni ed S a es in he sys em o he coun ies
could emedy in la iona y e o s o policies by de aluing agains he
dolla om ime o ime, on an indi idual basis which le in ac he
concep o a ixed exchange a e sys em. I is ue ha he e we e, in-
c easingly om he end o he 1950s on, mani es a ions o esen men
agains he p esumed unique ad an ages acc uing o he Uni ed S a es
by i ue o he ese e cu ency ole o he dolla . Bu his esen men
was di ec ed agains he p esumed ad an age o "dolla impe ialism"
and ela i e eedom om balance-o -paymen s disciplina y u gency,
no agains he po en ial o ac ual powe o he Uni ed S a es o o ce
in la ion on he es o he wo ld; and in any case by he mid-1960s
he majo Eu opean cen al banke s had mo e o less accep ed he idea
ha he Uni ed S a es was con on ed wi h special p oblems bu was
doing i s bes unde he ci cums ances.
All his changed wi h he ailu e o he Uni ed S a es o accompany
he escala ion o he wa in Vie Nam by app op ia e ax inc eases,
and i s eliance on mone a y expansion ins ead — oge he wi h a sub-
sequen gene al laxi y o Ame ican mone a y policy he easons o
which ha e been oo complica ed o en e on he e. As men ioned, a
sus ained in la ion, in a ese e cu ency coun y especially, mus sp ead
i sel h oughou he ixed- a e sys em; he only escape a ailable o
he o he s is h ough ei he loa a ion o exchange a es, o equen and
co-o dina ed cu ency e alua ion agains he in la ing coun y. Bu he
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
438 Ha y G. Johnson
Eu opean coun ies we e condi ioned o hink o exchange a e adjus -
men s as being di ec ed agains hei Eu opean neighbou s, hough ex-
p essed in e ms o he dolla exchange a e, a he han di ec ed agains
he Uni ed S a es by Eu opean neighbou ly coope a ion. Fu he , he
s anda d heo y o an i-in la iona y policy, which was s ongly in-
luenced by bo h wa and immedia e pos wa economic managemen
expe ience and by Keynesian policy heo ies ha assumed a closed
na ional economy and a sociologically-de e mined le el o money wages,
pe sis en ly en isaged in la ion as a na ional p oblem, o be deal wi h
by na ional iscal and mone a y policies, supplemen ed by a na ional
wage-p ice policy. Consequen ly, much ime and ingenui y was was ed
in denying he ob ious and de ising b illian imp o isa ions on he
i ele an , wi h he ul ima e aim and esul o a oiding necessa y ex-
change a e changes a he expense o willy-nilly endu ing unnecessa y
in la ion — un il P esiden Nixon's "New Economic Policy" o Augus
1971 cu he Go dian kno and allowed he Eu opeans su icien ope
o hang hemsel es in hei own inabili y o ag ee on a collec i e wo ld-
esponsible solu ion.
I was du ing his pe iod — owa ds he end o he 1960s — ha he
ac uali y and he concep o "s ag la ion" began o su ace in Eu opean
and Ame ican policy discussions. I Eu opean and Ame ican policy-
make s and economis s we e no so pa ochial, hey would ha e ecog-
nized he p oblem as a amilia one in La in Ame ican expe ience.
"S ag la ion" means he combina ion o unusually high unemploymen
wi h abno mal a es o in la ion o e en accele a ing in la ion. I is an
a i icial wo d, o he kind ha B i ish jou nalis s lo e o coin and
hei academic and o icial eade s o ci cula e os en a iously, unde he
alse imp ession ha o coin a new wo d is o p o e he exis ence o a
new p oblem ha con ounds all es ablished heo y and clea s he way
o he no el heo y o he seman ic coun e ei e himsel . The eali y
o "s ag la ion", howe e , did deal an almos mo al blow o he sel -
con idence o he Keynesian school o economic policy hinke s. The
eason was ha , on he basis o an e oneous heo y ha ollowed
Keynesian adi ion in con using eal and money wages, con empo a y
Keynesian heo is s had espoused an alleged empi ical ela ionship called
" he Phillips cu e". Acco ding o ha heo y, he a e o in la ion o
money wages is de e mined by he balance o eal demand o and
supply o labou , summa izable in he unemploymen a e, such ha
socie y has a " ade-o " be ween he a e o unemploymen and he
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade 439
a e o wage and p ice in la ion i can ha e. The appea ance o con-
inuing in la ion and ising unemploymen appea ed o des oy he hea
o Keynesianism as a heo y o economic policy. In ac , wha i should
ha e — and subsequen ly has — des oyed is he simple no ion ha
wo ke s and employe s a e bliss ully igno an o he ac ha in la ion
is going on, and happily se le o he same money wage inc eases as
usual, despi e he ob ious e ec s o in la ion in educing he eal alue
o a gi en money wage inc ease o he wo ke s and i s eal cos o
employe s. S ill, as my g ea eache Joseph Schumpe e used o ell his
classes in he his o y o economic hough :
"When an economis inds his p edic ions la ly con adic ed by he e idence,
he ne e says 'I am a ool!' Ins ead, he says 'Reali y is much mo e complica ed
han e en I had hough ."
The appea ance o he phenomenon o "s ag la ion" is easy enough
o unde s and, once one clea s his mind o he Keynesian assump ion
ha a na ion is a closed economy, o closed pa ially, in he sense ha
o eign in luences can only a ec i h ough he income-mul iplie and
in e na ional ese e low e ec s o he balance o paymen s, and ha
wo ke s and employe s a e oo s upid o ecognize an in la ion when i
hi s hem in he ace. Le me lis he main poin s o explana ion wi hou
a emp ing o be comp ehensi e.
Fi s , unde a ixed exchange a e sys em, as al eady men ioned, all
membe s a e inexo ably doomed o mo e o less he same a e o in la-
ion, due allowance being made o leads, lags, and na ional di e ences
be ween he mo emen s o measu ed p ice indices in di e en coun ies
expe iencing he same basic in la iona y impe us. An impo an im-
plica ion is ha he na ional a e o in la ion may ha e li le o no
connec ion wi h he s a e o he na ional labou ma ke s. In he ex eme,
coun ies may ha e no e en a sho - un employmen -in la ion ade-o ,
and only a choice o how much unemploymen o su e along wi h he
wo ld a e o in la ion. To be mo e poin ed, i coun ies w ongly belie e
ha hey can ade o domes ic unemploymen o a lowe wo ld in-
la ion a e, hey can ge he highe unemploymen , bu hey will no ge
he aba emen o in la ion: in o he wo ds, hei policies will c ea e
"s ag la ion", con ounding hei Keynesian economis s and policymake s.
Second, no hing bu con usion can esul om he usual poli ical
p ocedu e o selec ing a ce ain magic numbe as a ull-employmen
a ge , by psychic bidding o elec o al suppo . Apa al oge he om
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
440 Ha y G. Johnson
he likely e ec o unce ain y b ed by in la ion, in making bo h wo -
ke s and employe s mo e willing o s ay ou o he labou ma ke
empo a ily in hopes o an e en ually mo e sa is ac o y and be e -
in o med con ac ual employmen commi men , he "no mal unemploy-
men a e" consis en wi h p ice s abili y is i sel an economic a iable,
and one subjec o policy in luence. I is equen ly igno ed ha he
1930s c ash led o he de elopmen o wo al e na i e lines o policy
a ack on he e ils o dep ession: ull employmen policy, o be imple-
men ed by Keynesian demand managemen ; and social insu ance and
social secu i y p o isions, designed o emo e he social and pe sonal
economic s ing o unemploymen and ela ed income-loss p oblems. To
he ex en ha he p o ision o social secu i y has been success ul — and
i may well ha e been all oo success ul o he majo i y o he popu-
la ion — i ob iously inc eases he limi poin s o numbe s and du a ion
o unemploymen beyond which unemploymen is an objec i ely
se ious social p oblem. Fu he , he p og ess o a luence, including
inc eased emale pa icipa ion in he labou o ce, has had a signi ican
pa allel e ec by sp eading he isks o unemploymen o e he accu-
mula ed capi al as well as he labou -powe o he ypical wo ke , and
o e mo e han one wo ke in he amily uni .
Thi dly, since he popula ion o he majo ad anced cuun ies en e ed
he ecen in la iona y pe iod wi h wo cen u ies o expe ience o p ice
s abili y in peace- ime, and changing socie y's iews o no mali y is a
slow p ocess, one should expec people o go on o a long ime a e
in la ion has once go unde way, making hei decisions on he assump-
ion o con inuing in la ion e en hough hey pe sonally a e su e ing
om de la ion (speci ically, unemploymen ). A e all, i ook nea ly
a qua e o a cen u y a e he second wo ld wa o in la ion o build
up in o a no mal way o li e in he coun ies ha had su e ed mass un-
employmen in he 1930s; and i would be su p ising indeed i go e n-
men s, simply by announcing hei de e mina ion o s op in la ion, could
u n public opinion a ound wi hin he six-mon hs- o-a-yea -o -so pe iod
which is he maximum span o a en ion ha ei he he public o i s
go e nmen can de o e o pu suing a logical bu unpopula policy.
Hence one has he wo s o all possible esul s: all he mise y o ying
o s op in la ion and none o he sa is ac ion o succeeding.
This is, o cou se, he main ea o hose who o esee con inuing apid
in la ion ahead — no ha go e nmen s could no s op in la ion i hey
eally ied, bu ha he need o e-elec ion will always lead hem o
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade 447
men s om he impac o in la ion and he oil c isis. The libe al o de
o in e na ional ading a angemen s has been in inged on in some
impo an ways. Bu i s main con ou s s ill s and; and while hey do,
hey con inue o o e he oppo uni y o economic g ow h and de elop-
men h ough in e na ional ade and specializa ion.
Zusammen assung
Ein Übe blick übe die Wel wi scha sk ise
Gegens and de Un e suchung sind die G ünde ü die wel wei e K ise und
ih e Rückwi kungen au den in e na ionalen Handel. Eine zen ale S ellung
nimm dabei die F age ein, wie es zu dem Zusammen e en on In la ion und
Un e beschä igung kommen konn e — und dies in eine Wel , die du ch die
Au gabe ixe Wechselku se inzwischen die Möglichkei ha , sich gegen in-
la o ische Ein lüsse aus dem Ausland zu schü zen.
Einlei end wi d zunächs kla ges ell , daß auch de Gold-De isens anda d
und das mi ihm e bundene Sys em es e Wechselku se keinen Zwang zu
S abili ä ausüb e, sonde n lediglich einen gewissen Gleichsch i in den In-
la ions a en e lang e. Abe auch ein Sys em loa ende Wechselku se siche
nich gegen in la o ische S ö ungen, wenn es sich übe wiegend um ein „schmu -
ziges Floa en" handel . Hinzu komm die Tendenz de No enbanken, sich
auch in einem Sys em ei schwankende Ku se wie un e de He scha es e
Wechselku se zu e hal en, da sie o nehmlich au die Ve ände ungen de
Ku se gegenübe ih en Nachba lände n ach en.
Haup quelle de Wel in la ion wa die Ta sache, daß die Ve einig en S aa en
es e säum haben, den Vie namk ieg übe S eue e höhungen zu inanzie en.
Die Übe p oduk ion an Dolla muß e sich bei es en Wechselku sen übe die
ganze Wel ausb ei en. Diese in la o ische E ek is e s du ch die subs an-
ielle Abwe ung des Dolla s gemilde wo den. Die eu opäischen Lände
haben jedoch den ihnen du ch die Maßnahmen on Augus 1971 einge äum en
Spiel aum s abili ä spoli isch nich genu z . Die Möglichkei zu Übe windung
de Wel in la ion wi d o allem aus de e ände en Hal ung de ame ika-
nischen Adminis a ion zu In la ion und aus dem Ums and abgelei e , daß
dami wiede ein dämp ende Ein luß au ande e Lände ausgeüb wi d.
Die Un e suchung schließ mi einigen Übe legungen zum Ein luß de Öl-
k ise au die In la ion. Es wi d gezeig , daß diese Ein luß beg enz gewesen
wä e, wenn man diesem P oblem mi den E kenn nissen aus de Ka ell-
heo ie und -p axis begegne wä e. E s de Ve such, den Folgen de ölp eis-
e höhungen du ch Sub en ionen zu begegnen, ha ih en p eis eibenden Ein luß
e s ä k .
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32

448 Ha y G. Johnson
Summa y
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade
The subjec o his s udy is he g ounds o he wo ldwide c isis and hei
epe cussions on in e na ional ade. Cen al impo ance is assigned o he
ques ion o how i was possible o in la ion and unde employmen o coincide
— and ha in a wo ld which, h ough gi ing up ixed exchange a es, is
meanwhile capable o p o ec ing i sel agains in la iona y in luence om
ab oad.
In he in oduc ion, i is i s made clea ha he gold exchange s anda d,
oo, and he ela ed sys em o ixed exchange a es, exe ed no compulsion o
p ese e s abili y, bu me ely demanded a ce ain deg ee o uni o mi y o
in la ion a es. Bu e en a sys em o loa ing exchange a es is no sa egua d
agains in la iona y dis u bances, i he loa ing is p edominan ly o he
"di y" ype. An addi ional ace is he endency o cen al banks o beha e
in a sys em o eely luc ua ion exchange a es in he same way as when ixed
exchange a es p e ail, since hei a en ion is ocused p ima ily on exchange
a e changes ela i e o hei neighbou ing coun ies.
The chie sou ce o wo ld in la ion was he ac ha he Uni ed S a es
ailed o inance he Vie nam wa by ax inc eases. Wi h exchange a es ixed,
he o e p oduc ion o dolla s necessa ily had o sp ead o e he whole wo ld.
This in la iona y e ec was amelio a ed only by he subs an ial de alua ion
o he dolla . The Eu opean coun ies, howe e , did no ake ull ad an age
o s abiliza ion policy o he la i ude hey we e gi en by he measu es o
Augus 1971. The possibili y o o e coming wo ld in la ion is de i ed abo e
all om he changed a i ude o he Ame ican adminis a ion o in la ion and
om he ci cums ance ha his will exe a damping e ec on o he coun ies.
The s udy concludes wi h hough s on he in luence o he oil c isis on
in la ion. I is shown ha his in luence would ha e been limi ed, i his
p oblem had been ackled wi h he knowledge om ca el heo y and p ac ice.
I was no un il he a emp was made o comba he consequences o oil p ice
inc eases wi h subsidies ha i s p ice- aising in luence was s eng hened.
Résumé
Un su ol de la c ise économique mondiale
L'a icle a pou objec de eche che les causes de la c ise uni e selle e ses
e e s su le comme ce in e na ional. D'impo ance p imo diale es la ques ion
de sa oi commen on pu se conjugue l'in la ion e le sous-emploi, en pa -
iculie dans un monde où, pa l'abandon des cou s ixes de change, l'on a ai
la possibili é de se p o ége des in luences in la ionnis es en p o enance de
l'é ange .
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32
An O e iew o he Wo ld C isis and In e na ional T ade 449
Il es d'abo d é abli dans l'in oduc ion que l'é alon-o de change e le
sys ème de aux ixes de change qui s'y a ache n'exe cen pas de con ain e
e s la s abili é; ils equiè en uniquemen une ce aine symé ie en e les aux
d'in la ion. Mais un sys ème de changes lo an s n'o e pas non plus de ga an-
ie con e les pe u ba ions in la oi es dès lo s que l'on a p incipalemen a -
ai e à un
«
o emen malsain ». E il au enco e ajou e que la endance
des banques cen ales es de se compo e dans un sys ème de aux lo an
lib emen comme sous l'empi e de cou s ixes, ca elles su eillen p incipa-
lemen les modi ica ions de aux à l'éga d des pays oisins.
La sou ce p incipale de l'in la ion mondiale u le ai pou les E a s-Unis
de néglige de inance la gue e du Vie nam pa des augmen a ions d'impô s.
La su p oduc ion de dolla s de ai pa le sys ème des aux de change ixes
se épand e à a e s le monde en ie . Ce e e in la ionnis e ne s'es édui
qu'à da e de la dé alua ion subs an ielle du dolla . Les pays eu opéens n'on
cependan pas exploi é en a eu d'une poli ique de s abilisa ion la libe é de
manoeu e que leu oc oyaien les mesu es du mois d'aoû 1971. La possibili é
de maî ise l'in la ion mondiale es su ou basée su un changemen de men-
ali é de l'adminis a ion amé icaine, ce qui au ai des épe cussions de einage
dans d'au es pays.
L'é ude s'achè e su quelques considé a ions ela i es à l'in luence de la c ise
pé oliè e su l'in la ion. L'au eu souligne que ce e in luence au ai pu ê e
limi ée si l'on a ai abo dé le p oblème pa le biais de la science héo ique e
p a ique des ca els. Mais la en a i e de con eca e pa des sub en ions les
e e s du enché issemen du pé ole n'a se i qu'à en o ce leu endance à
hausse les p ix.
OPEN ACCESS | Licensed unde CC BY 4.0 | h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/abou /cclicenses/
DOI h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/ccm.8.4.433 | Gene a ed on 2023-01-16 13:32:32