Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden

Buja d, Ma in; Ande sson, Gunna
A icle — Published Ve sion
Fe ili y Declines Nea he End o he COVID-19 Pandemic:
E idence o he 2022 Bi h Declines in Ge many and
Sweden
Eu opean Jou nal o Popula ion
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Buja d, Ma in; Ande sson, Gunna (2024) : Fe ili y Declines Nea he End o he
COVID-19 Pandemic: E idence o he 2022 Bi h Declines in Ge many and Sweden, Eu opean Jou nal
o Popula ion, ISSN 1572-9885, Sp inge Ne he lands, Do d ech , Vol. 40, Iss. 1,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10680-023-09689-w
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:
E idence o  he2022 Bi h Declines inGe many
andSweden
Ma inBuja d1 · Gunna Ande sson2
Recei ed: 1 Oc obe 2022 / Accep ed: 20 No embe 2023 / Published online: 22 Janua y 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Abs ac
Following he onse o he COVID-19 pandemic, many coun ies aced sho - e m
e ili y declines in 2020–2021, a de elopmen which did no ma e ialize in he
majo i y o Ge man-speaking and No dic coun ies. Howe e , mo e ecen bi h
s a is ics show a s eep e ili y decline in 2022. We aim o p o ide empi ical e i-
dence on he unexpec ed bi h decline in 2022 in Ge many and Sweden. We ely on
mon hly bi h s a is ics and p esen seasonally adjus ed mon hly To al Fe ili y Ra es
(TFR) o Ge many and Sweden. We ela e he nine-mon h lagged e ili y a es o
con ex ual de elopmen s ega ding COVID-19. The seasonally adjus ed mon hly
TFR o Ge many d opped om 1.5–1.6 in 2021 o 1.4 in ea ly 2022 and again in
au umn 2022, a decline o abou 10% in se e al mon hs. In Sweden, he co espond-
ing TFR d opped om abou 1.7 in 2021 o 1.5–1.6 in 2022, a decline o almos
10%. The e is no associa ion o he e ili y ends wi h changes in unemploymen ,
in ec ion a es, o COVID-19 dea hs, bu a s ong associa ion wi h he onse o ac-
cina ion p og ammes and he weakening o pandemic- ela ed es ic ions. The e il-
i y decline in 2022 in Ge many and Sweden is ema kable. Common explana ions o
e ili y change du ing he pandemic do no apply. The associa ion be ween he onse
o mass accina ions and subsequen e ili y decline indica es ha women adjus ed
hei beha iou o ge accina ed be o e becoming p egnan . Fe ili y dec eased as
socie ies we e opening up wi h mo e no malized li e condi ions. We p o ide no el
in o ma ion on e ili y declines and he COVID-19- e ili y nexus du ing and in he
immedia e a e ma h o he pandemic.
Keywo ds Fe ili y· Bi h decline· COVID-19· Economic unce ain y·
Vaccina ion· Ox o d S ingency Index· Fe ili y plans
Ex ended au ho in o ma ion a ailable on he las page o he a icle
M.Buja d, G.Ande sson
4 Page 2 o 21
1 In oduc ion
Wi h he onse o he COVID-19 pandemic, many schola s expec ed he pan-
demic o ha e a nega i e impac on e ili y de elopmen s (Aass e e al., 2020;
Be ing on e al., 2022a). Two main mechanisms we e assumed o be a play: he
impac o he heal h c isis and he impac o pandemic-induced economic unce -
ain ies on e ili y plans. Cu en knowledge on he in luence o he COVID-
19 pandemic on e ili y pa e ns is mixed and indings a y be ween coun ies
and he iming o in ec ion wa es, shu down policies, and p e-exis ing e ili y
changes. Fo many high-income coun ies, mon hly bi h coun s declined be ween
No embe 2020 and Janua y 2021, i.e. nine mon hs a e he onse o he pan-
demic du ing Ma ch–May 2020. The declines we e pa icula ly s ong in sou h-
e n Eu ope (Aass e e al., 2021; Sobo ka e al., 2021, 2023) and occu ed wi h
conside able wi hin-coun y he e ogenei y (A pino, Luppi, & Rosina, 2021). In
Spain, he mon hly To al Fe ili y Ra e (TFR) declined wi h some 20% o a le el
below 1.0 in Decembe 2022 (Cozzani e al., 2022), he sha pes d op obse ed
in Eu ope (Sobo ka e al., 2021, 2023). Fe ili y declines du ing he ansi ion
om 2020 o 2021 we e also obse ed o Japan (Ghazna i e al., 2022), he USA
(G omski e al., 2020; Hamil on, Ma in, & Os e man, 2021), and he UK (Be -
ing on e al., 2022b).
Howe e , in No dic and some Ge man-speaking coun ies he e ili y pa e ns
we e somewha di e en . In Sweden (Neye e al., 2022), No way (Lappegå d
e al., 2022), Finland (Nisén e al., 2022), and Ge many (Pö zsch, 2021), he e
was no isible e ili y decline in la e 2020 o ea ly 2021. In con as , hese coun-
ies e en expe ienced mino inc eases in hei mon hly e ili y a es in ea ly
2021 as well as du ing he au umn o he same yea . Explana ions o he posi i e
e ili y ends du ing he cou se o he COVID-19 pandemic ange om he less
se e e mo ali y impac s han in many o he con ex s o he bu e ing ole o p o-
ec i e social policies and swi ly in oduced economic-suppo p og ammes du -
ing he ea ly phases o he pandemic. Analyses based on 17 Eu opean coun ies
e eal ha he ole o pe cei ed unce ain y ega ding job ma ke s and house-
hold inances educed e ili y in o he con ex s a he e y onse o he pandemic
(Ta a es, Aze edo, & A pino, 2022).
Howe e , in he inal s age o he pandemic, mon hly e ili y da a om
Sweden and Ge many show a s ong e ili y decline in ea ly 2022, wi h abou
10–15% less bi hs, espec i ely, han wha was obse ed du ing he same pe iod
he p e ious yea . This poses ques ions on he ole o p e iously sugges ed mech-
anisms o pandemic- ela ed e ili y change, such as he ole o heal h- ela ed o
economic-cen ed ac o s in ecen e ili y change. I also b ings ac o s ela ed
o he pe cei ed cessa ion o he pandemic o ou a en ion, as e lec ed in he
onse o b oad-based accina ion p og ammes di ec ed a he popula ion a ep o-
duc i e and economically ac i e ages. The i s accines we e made a ailable
al eady a he e y end o 2020 and we e ini ially aimed a speci ic g oups o
employees in he heal hca e sys em, a olde people, and hose wi h an unde ly-
ing heal h condi ion. The accina ion p og ammes we e la e expanded o co e
Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:… Page 3 o 21 4
he gene al popula ion and in mos Eu opean coun ies accina ion in ensi ies
eached i s peak du ing he sp ing and summe o 2021 (An onini e al., 2022). I
he e is an impac o hese in e en ions on childbea ing beha iou , i should be
obse ed om he u n o 2021–2022 and onwa ds.
The cu en s udy aims o desc ibe he e ili y- end change ha occu ed in
Ge many and Sweden du ing ea ly 2022 by p esen ing s a is ics on mon hly li e
bi hs and seasonally adjus ed mon hly TFR p io o and du ing he cou se o he
pandemic. Fu he , we compa e ou mon hly e ili y indica o s wi h con ex ually
ele an de elopmen s o a ew pandemic- ela ed ac o s, including he onse o
b oad-based accina ion p og ammes in he wo coun ies we s udy. We expec ou
con ibu ion o be help ul o u u e esea ch when de eloping new hypo heses on
he di e en ac o s ha may con ibu e o amily- ela ed change as socie ies exi
om hei pandemic-d i en ci cums ances.
2 Fou Rele an In luences o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic
onChildbea ing Beha iou
The mos ob ious in luence o he COVID-19 pandemic on e ili y ends is h ough
di e en ac o s ha ela e o he heal h c isis as such. Fo example, e idence om
p e ious global pandemics indica es ha e ili y declined a e he H1N1 “Spanish
Flu” o 1918–19 in B i ain (Reid, 2005), Japan (Chand a & Yu, 2015), and he USA
(Chand a e al., 2018). The e ili y decline in US ci ies was abou 20% nine mon hs
a e he peak o ha pandemic bu eco e ed whe e public heal h in e en ions
we e implemen ed (Wagne e al., 2020). Howe e , hese his o ical expe iences can-
no be ans e ed di ec ly o he con empo a y si ua ion as heal hca e and economic
wel a e sys ems a e now much mo e de eloped han a cen u y ago. Also, he Span-
ish Flu mainly had an impac on pe sons a childbea ing and economically ac i e
ages (Reid, 2005) while COVID-19 mo ali y and mo bidi y ha e had he s onges
impac on people a mo e ad anced ages (Bonanad e al., 2020; Kolk e al., 2022).
Howe e , he heal hca e sys em was pa ly o e s ained also du ing he COVID-19
pandemic, esul ing in educed suppo in pa ien e ili y ca e o assis ed ep oduc-
i e p ocedu es and o bi h clinics in gene al (DSouza e al., 2022).
The impac o economic c ises as igge ed by he global pandemic, and he
pe cep ion o economic unce ain y du ing he cou se o he pandemic, is ano he
mechanism ha could ela e o educed e ili y in en ions and childbea ing beha -
iou . A nega i e ela ion be ween employmen ins abili y, agg ega e unemploymen ,
and e ili y is well known (Adse a, 2011; Albei awi e al., 2022). The G ea Reces-
sion in Eu ope du ing 2007–2008 was nega i ely ela ed o subsequen e ili y
ends, howe e , wi h conside able di e ences by age, bi h pa i y, and egions in
Eu ope (Golds ein e al., 2013). Highe le els o unemploymen a he egional le el
seem o be nega i ely ela ed o e ili y ends (Ma ysiak e al., 2021) and coho
e ili y (Buja d & Schelle , 2017). Howe e , subjec i e indica o s such as indi idu-
als’ pe cep ions o economic unce ain y may o en ma e mo e o couples’ e il-
i y decisions han hei ac ual economic si ua ion (Comolli e al., 2021; K eyen eld,
2016; Vignoli e al., 2020).
M.Buja d, G.Ande sson
4 Page 4 o 21
While he heal h c isis and di e en aspec s o pandemic-induced economic
unce ain y a e expec ed o b ing nega i e in luences on e ili y, he e could also
be a posi i e in luence om he li e ci cums ances du ing he pandemic ha could
be labelled a cocooning e ec . The e was huge he e ogenei y in amilies’ expe i-
ences and li e ci cums ances while social dis ancing policies and o he in e en ions
we e in e ec in people’s li es du ing he pandemic, bu some imes hese may ha e
led o a mo e amily-o ien ed li e si ua ion (Ahmed e al., 2020). Inc eased ime by
pa en s o ca e o hei child en and, in he case o Ge many, o home-schooling
we e o en challenging bu some imes also p o ided oppo uni ies o mo e alue-
based beha iou (Szabo e al., 2020). Pa ne s may ha e had mo e ime o alk abou
hei e ili y plans and pe haps mo e oppo uni y o sexual in e cou se (Be ing on
e al., 2022b). An inc eased a en ion o he alue o child en (Ho man & Ho man,
1973) and mo e ime o couple in e ac ion may o some ha e esul ed in s onge
childbea ing in en ions.
The mechanisms behind he onse o la ge-scale accina ion p og ammes on e -
ili y ha e no ye been analysed. These p og ammes ma k he ending o he pe -
asi eness o he global pandemic on people’s li es and he li e si ua ion ha had
p e ailed du ing he pandemic. They signalled a e u n o he less amily- and home-
cen ed li e si ua ion ha p e ailed be o e he onse o he pandemic. Ano he ac o
could be ha any pe cei ed ea ha he COVID-19 accine had a nega i e impac
on women and men’s ecundi y, which in some cases was labelled a “majo cause
o accine hesi ancy” (Diaz e al., 2022), a ec ed childbea ing conside a ions. Fu -
he , he o icial ecommenda ion o ge accina ed du ing p egnancy was ini ially
hesi an bu la e changed du ing he cou se o accina ion p og ammes. Also, he
accina ion up ake o p egnan women was lowe han o he gene al popula ion
(Januszek e al., 2021). In some cases, un accina ed women could ha e pos poned
hei e ili y plans o he ime a e ha ing go accina ed. We expec di e en
mechanisms o be a play in di e en phases o he pandemic, which can be labelled
as he qua an ine phase, and he ea ly and la ge-scale immuniza ion phases. The
WHO decla ed he end o Co id‐19 as a global heal h eme gency in May 2023, and
we conside he phase whe e mos people ha e become immunized as he a e ma h
o he pandemic.
3 Da a andMe hods
Mon hly da a on li e bi hs in Ge many du ing 2000–2021 we e d awn om he
Ge man bi h egis e (S a is isches Bundesam , 2023c). Fo 2022 and Janua y
2023, we use p elimina y da a on li e bi hs, by bi h mon h, which di e somewha
om s a is ically eco ded no i ica ions o bi hs (S a is isches Bundesam , 2023b).
We es ima ed mon hly To al Fe ili y Ra es (TFR) based on annual TFRs, mon hly
e ili y da a, and mon hly emale popula ion exposu es (Jdano e al., 2022). The
es ima ion me hod is based on he calcula ion o he Gene al Fe ili y Ra e (GFR),
based on he linea in e pola ion o emale popula ion aged 15–44, and he annual
ela ion be ween he GFR and TFR. The mon hly GFR is es ima ed as ollows:

Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:… Page 5 o 21 4
The GFR displays mon hly (o yea ly) bi h a es as he ac ion be ween li e
bi hs (B) and he emale popula ion (FP) in ep oduc i e age (15–44) in a speci ic
pe iod. Da a o mon hly li e bi hs a e a ailable om he Ge man bi h egis e
(S a is isches Bundesam , 2023c); da a on he emale popula ion aged 15–44 is cal-
cula ed by linea in e pola ion o yea ly da a o Decembe 31s each yea om Ge -
man popula ion s a is ics (S a is isches Bundesam , 2023a). Since he age s uc u e
o he emale popula ion aged 15–44 is ela i ely s able o e he cou se o a yea , we
assume ha he ela ion be ween he GFR and he TFR is s able, oo. The e o e, we
calcula e he annual ela ion be ween he wo measu es ( ) as ollows:
We calcula e mon hly ’s by in e pola ion be ween he annual alues and
mon hly TFRs as ollows:
Since mon hly changes in he popula ion exposu e a e a he small and es ima-
ions o mon hly TFRs a e s ongly in luenced by seasonal pa e ns o e ili y luc-
ua ion, we adjus ed o seasonal e ec s by calcula ing a seasonal adjus men ac o
based on he a e age seasonal pa e ns be ween 2000 and 2020:
The seasonal adjus men ac o s is calcula ed by he ela ion be ween he mean
o he TFR o a speci ic mon h o he yea s 2000–2020 and he mean o all mon hs
in he same pe iod.
The seasonal adjus ed TFR o a speci ic mon h (
TFRs
m)
is calcula ed by he ac-
ion be ween he mon hly TFR and i s seasonal adjus men ac o .
Swedish da a on li e bi hs and women a ep oduc i e ages s em om he coun-
y’s popula ion egis e and a e a ailable a S a is ics Sweden (S a is ics Sweden,
2023). The da a a e upda ed on a mon hly basis and p o ided o women in Sweden
and bi hs by age o mo he by he accu acy o single-yea age g oups. S a is ics
Sweden also p oduces ime se ies o mon hly TFRs, including seasonally adjus ed
se ies o such e ili y a es. The TFRs a e calcula ed by means o con en ional sum-
ma ies o he age-speci ic e ili y a es o each mon h unde obse a ion. S a is ics
Sweden’s seasonali y weigh s a e upda ed on a egula basis as seasonali y pa e ns
in Sweden ha e changed somewha du ing ecen decades (Dahlbe g & Ande sson,
(1)
GFR
m,y=
B
m,y
FP
m,y
(15,
44)
(2)
y
=
TFR
y
GFR
y
(3)
TFRm=GFRm∗ m
(4)
s
m=
meanTFR
m
2000 −2020
(meanTFR
y
2000 −2020)∕
12
(5)
TFR
s
m
=
TFR
m
s
m
M.Buja d, G.Ande sson
4 Page 6 o 21
2018). They a e cu en ly based on a olling a e age o he las i e yea s o mon hly
seasonali y obse a ions (Lundk is , 2023).
In ou p esen a ion, we also ela e he de elopmen s in bi h s a is ics wi h
mon hly da a on a ew ele an con ex ual indica o s which we obse e nine mon hs
be o e he childbi hs we co e . Wi h ega d o he heal h c isis, we conside he
numbe o COVID-19 ela ed dea hs and he se en-day in ec ion incidence in Swe-
den and Ge many (Robe -Koch-Ins i u e, 2022a, 2023). Rega ding economic ac-
o s, we conside he mon hly unemploymen a es in Ge many and Sweden (S a is-
ics Sweden, 2022)and, o Ge many, he numbe o employees aking sho -wo k
social-secu i y bene i s (“Ku za bei ”). The la e p og amme helped employees no
become unemployed and can be seen as an indica o o he deg ee o job insecu i y
du ing he cou se o he pandemic (Bundesagen u ü A bei , 2022, 2023). As a
hi d con ex ual ac o , we conside he accina ion p og ammes and i s in e en-
ions wi h a i s , second, and hi d accina ion e en in Ge many (Robe -Koch-
Ins i u e, 2022b, 2023) and a i s and second accina ion e en in Sweden (Public
Heal h Agency o Sweden, 2022b). Ou ou h con ex ual ac o is he s ic ness o
applied pandemic- ela ed es ic ions, which a ies o e ime and be ween coun-
ies; we use he Ox o d S ingency Index as ou indica o o his ou come (Hale
e al., 2021).
4 Resul s
4.1 Fe ili y De elopmen s inRela ion oP e ious T ends: Mon hly TFRs
inGe many andSweden in heTwen y‑ i s Cen u y
Be ween he yea s 2000 and 2014, Ge many’s TFR was cons an ly ho e ing a a
le el be ween 1.3 and 1.5 child en pe woman (Fig.1). In con as , om 2015 o
2021 i was on an upwa d end, o a TFR le el close o 1.7. A peak occu ed du ing
he COVID-19 pandemic in Ma ch and Oc obe 2021 wi h a TFR le el clea ly abo e
1.60. Howe e , in he i s mon hs o 2022 he e was an ab up decline in bi h a es
so ha he TFR eached a le el o 1.39 in Janua y 2022, which sligh ly inc eased o
1.44 in Ap il. In May and June e ili y a es eco e ed, he TFR ebounded o 1.5.
Howe e , his eco e y was only sho -li ed and he TFR dec eased again o 1.45
and 1.39 in No embe and Decembe 2022 and o 1.31 in Janua y 2023.
The TFR ends in Sweden du ing he i s wo decades o he new cen u y we e
ma kedly di e en om hose in Ge many (Fig.1): Sweden’s TFRs i s inc eased
du ing he i s decade o he wen y- i s cen u y, o a le el o abou 2.0 in much
o 2010, hen declined du ing i s second decade. The ini ial inc ease amoun ed o
a ecupe a ion o he dep essed e ili y and pos poned childbea ing ha occu ed
du ing he 1990s. The la e decline occu ed in andem wi h simila e ili y
declines in o he coun ies in No he n and Wes e n Eu ope as well as in Anglo-
Saxon coun ies. I was d i en by declines in i s -bi h a es o women and men
in couples (Ohlsson-Wijk & Ande sson, 2022). Howe e , he e ili y pa e ns du -
ing he COVID-19 pandemic we e la gely simila o hose in Ge many. Du ing he
pandemic, he p e ious e ili y decline was e e sed and Sweden’s TFR ho e ed a
Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:… Page 7 o 21 4
a) Ge many
b) Sweden
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
Mon hlyTFR
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
mon hly TFR (seasonallyadjus ed)
smoo hedTFR
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2
Mon hlyTFR
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
mon hly TFR (seasonally adjus ed)
smoo hed TFR
No e: The TFR is seasonally adjus ed. The smoo hed TFR is seasonally adjus ed and smoo hed by a
mo ing a e age o +/- 6 mon hs. Da a un il Janua y 2023.
Fig. 1 Mon hly To al Fe ili y Ra e (TFR) o Ge many and Sweden, 1/2000–1/2023. a Ge many. b Swe-
den. Sou ce Own calcula ions based on Ge many’s bi h s a is ics and cu en upda ing o popula ion
s a is ics. Own smoo hing o mon hly TFR da a p oduced by S a is ics Sweden
M.Buja d, G.Ande sson
4 Page 8 o 21
a seasonally adjus ed le el o 1.65–1.71. As in Ge many, i subsequen ly showed a
d as ic decline in i s mon hly TFR when he pandemic came o a hal : Du ing he
i s mon hs o 2022, he Swedish TFR ell o a ma kedly dep essed le el and s a-
bilized du ing he sp ing a a le el o close o 1.5, which is close o he eco d-low
o Swedish TFRs. The seasonally adjus ed TFR emained a ha le el o he es o
he yea and in ea ly 2023.
4.2 Changes in heNumbe o Li e Bi hs Pe Mon h Du ing heCou se
o  heCo id‑19 Pandemic
In con as o many o he Eu opean coun ies, Ge many expe ienced no bi h decline
in he i s mon hs o 2021. The e was e en a small inc ease o abou 2.9% in he
o al numbe o bi hs in 2021 as compa ed o he p e ious yea ; he inc ease was
pa icula ly p onounced du ing Feb ua y and Ma ch and du ing Oc obe o Decem-
be 2021. In con as , he e is a subsequen decline o 7.1% in he numbe o bi hs
in 2022. Du ing Janua y o Ap il 2022, his decline was be ween 6.6 and 8.5% as
compa ed o he 5-yea a e age o 2016–2020 (Table1). In May and June 2022,
he numbe o bi hs inc eased somewha . Howe e , du ing July o No embe he
decline was be ween 5 and 8% as compa ed o he 5-yea a e age o 2016–2020.
The pa e ns o mon hly inc eases and subsequen declines in he numbe o
bi hs in Sweden in 2021 and 2022 we e e y simila o hose obse ed o Ge -
many. Excep o a decline in bi hs in Janua y 2021, he numbe o bi hs in ha
yea was sligh ly highe han in 2020 and only sligh ly lowe han o he p eceding
5-yea a e age o obse a ions. The declines in he numbe o li e bi hs in ea ly
2022 we e also ema kable, showing a subsequen decline o 8.3% in he numbe o
bi hs in 2022. Du ing he cou se o he sp ing, he decline in ensi ied and led o a
educ ion in he numbe o bi hs in Ap il, July, Sep embe , Oc obe , and No embe
o mo e han 10% in ela ion o hose o he p eceding 5-yea a e ages o obse a-
ions (Table2).
4.3 Fe ili y Change in heCon ex o Heal h C isis, Economic Ha dship,
Vaccina ion P og ammes, andPandemic‑Rela ed Res ic ions
In his sec ion, we ela e he mon hly e ili y pa e ns in Ge many and Sweden
du ing and in he immedia e a e ma h o he pandemic o a ew c ucial con ex-
ual de elopmen s which we display in ela ion o bi h da a ha a e adjus ed nine
mon hs o he ime o concep ion o he child en bo n (c . Fig. 2 o Ge many;
Fig.3 o Sweden). The mon hly con ex ual de elopmen s a e co e ed by da a on
COVID-19 mo ali y, 7-day incidence a es o COVID-19, unemploymen a es,
u iliza ion o he Ge man sho - ime wo k p og amme (‘Ku za bei ’), accina ion
e en s, and he Ox o d S ingency Index. In Ge many, a i s modes inc ease o
Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:… Page 15 o 21 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dea hs (pe 100,000)
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
7 day incidence(pe 100,000)
JanMa MayJul SepNo JanMa MayJul SepNo JanMa
Dea h a e
7day incidence
220212020202
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemploymen a e
JanMa MayJul SepNo JanMa MayJul SepNo JanMa
Unemploymen a e
220212020202
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Vaccina ion a e(pe 1,000 inhabi ans)
JanMa MayJul SepNo JanMa MayJul SepNo JanMa
1s accina ion
2nd accina ion
220212020202
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ox o d S ingency Index
JanMa MayJul SepNo Jan Ma May JulSep No Jan Ma
Ox o d S ingency Index
220212020202
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
Mon hlyTFR
No Jan Ma May JulSep No Jan Ma May JulSep No Jan
Mon hlyTFR
3202220212020202

M.Buja d, G.Ande sson
4 Page 16 o 21
in dep ession (Ludwig-Walz e al., 2022) and anxie y (Ludwig-Walz e al., 2023)
occu ed. These expe iences o es ic i e measu es a he expense o amilies could
all con ibu e o u u e dep essed e ili y. Second, he impac o wa in Eu ope and
high in la ion could con ibu e o inc easing eelings o unce ain y (Comolli e al.,
2021; K eyen eld, 2016; Vignoli e al., 2020), which also migh lead o lowe e il-
i y in he nea u u e.
The e a e se e al limi a ions o ou s udy. The mos ecen mon hly da a o
Ge many a e s ill p elimina y and may be co ec ed la e . Howe e , such co -
ec ions will no change he ex en o e ili y decline in any subs an ial manne .
The es ima ion o mon hly TFRs and he seasonal adjus men s ha we apply also
depend on assump ions o seasonal pa e ns du ing p e ious compa ison pe iods
ha may la e be challenged. The bigges limi a ion is ha ou in e p e a ions a e
based on desc ip i e associa ions ha do no accoun o he many indi idual-le el
cha ac e is ics and o he con ex ual ac o s ha may also be a play. Mo e in-dep h
esea ch based on indi idual-le el da a will p o ide be e insigh in o he na u e o
he obse ed e ili y decline in Ge many as well as in Sweden, when such da a a e
a ailable.
Ou s udy s ill p o ides aluable da a and insigh on a new and en i ely unan-
icipa ed e ili y de elopmen in he con ex o he COVID-19 pandemic. I
emains o be seen whe he hese de elopmen s a e o a sho - e m na u e and
i and how as e ili y ends in Ge many and Sweden will e u n o hei p e-
pandemic pa e ns, which o Ge many was unning in an upwa d di ec ion and
in Sweden in a downwa d di ec ion.
Appendix
See Figs. 4, 5.
Fig. 4 T ends in he numbe o
bi hs in Ge many, by mon h in
2018–2022. Sou ce Own cal-
cula ions based on Ge many’s
bi h s a is ic, 2018–22: S a is-
isches Bundesam (2023c),
S a is isches Bundesam (2023b)
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
JanFeb Ma Ap May JunJul AugSep Oc No Dec
Numbe o bi hs pe mon h
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:… Page 17 o 21 4
Acknowledgemen s The au ho s a e g a e ul o Lena Lundk is a S a is ics Sweden o he p oduc ion
and ci cula ion o mon hly TFR da a o Sweden, and Michaela K eyen eld and Pa el G igo ie o help-
ul commen s on he Ge man da a. We a e g a e ul o he help ul and e y cons uc i e inpu om h ee
anonymous e iewe s o ou manusc ip .
Funding Open access unding p o ided by S ockholm Uni e si y. The i s au ho did no ecei e any
speci ic g an om unding agencies in he public, comme cial, o no - o -p o i sec o s. The second
au ho acknowledges inancial suppo om he Swedish Resea ch Council o Heal h, Wo king li e and
Wel a e (FORTE), g an numbe 2020-00639.
Decla a ions
Con lic o in e es The au ho s ha e no ele an inancial o non- inancial in e es s o disclose.
Open Access This a icle is licensed unde a C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional License,
which pe mi s use, sha ing, adap a ion, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any medium o o ma , as long
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Publishe ’s No e Sp inge Na u e emains neu al wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in published maps
and ins i u ional a ilia ions.

Fe ili y Declines Nea heEnd o  heCOVID‑19 Pandemic:… Page 21 o 21 4
Au ho s and A ilia ions
Ma inBuja d1 · Gunna Ande sson2
* Ma in Buja d
Ma [email p o ec ed]
* Gunna Ande sson
gunna .ande [email protected]
1 Fede al Ins i u e o Popula ion Resea ch (BiB), F ied ich-Ebe -Allee 4, 65185Wiesbaden,
Ge many
2 S ockholm Uni e si y Demog aphy Uni (SUDA), Sociologiska Ins i u ionen, Demog a iska
A delningen, 106 91, S ockholm, Sweden