Kawachi, Koki; Shibasaki, Ryuichi
A icle
How do co ido de elopmen and bo de acili a ion
policies impac u u e con aine anspo in inland Sou h
Asia? A ne wo k simula ion app oach
Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics (AJSL)
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ko ean Associa ion o Shipping and Logis ics, Seoul
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kawachi, Koki; Shibasaki, Ryuichi (2024) : How do co ido de elopmen and
bo de acili a ion policies impac u u e con aine anspo in inland Sou h Asia? A ne wo k
simula ion app oach, Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics (AJSL), ISSN 2352-4871, Else ie ,
Ams e dam, Vol. 40, Iss. 1, pp. 61-81,
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How do co ido de elopmen and bo de acili a ion policies impac u u e
con aine anspo in inland Sou h Asia? –A ne wo k simula ion app oach
Koki Kawachi, Ryuichi Shibasaki
*
School o Enginee ing, The Uni e si y o Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, Japan
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Con aine shipping
Co ido de elopmen
C oss-bo de acili a ion
Sou h Asia
SASEC
Landlocked a ea
In e modal anspo ne wo k
Ca go low assignmen
Fu u e simula ion
Logis ics policy
ABSTRACT
The Sou h Asia Sub egional Economic Coope a ion (SASEC) a ea expe iences apid economic g ow h wi h an
abundan popula ion, expec ing o inc ease he ca go anspo demand. Howe e , weak in as uc u e and c oss-
bo de sys ems could hinde he u u e g ow h o he a ea. We examine he impac o a ious logis ics policies o
e icien egional de elopmen , including co ido de elopmen and bo de acili a ion. Pa icula ly, we ocus on
he inland SASEC egion, which has unique logis ics en i onmen s because o complex geog aphical condi ions,
o gain implica ions on he ela ionship be ween landlocked egions and seapo s. We ex end he global logis ics
in e modal ne wo k simula ion (GLINS) model, a s ochas ic assignmen model o selec anspo ou es and
ca ie s o minimize he gene alized cos , o he SASEC egion, co e ing se e al egional di isions o gain im-
plica ions ha canno be ob ained by ocusing only on Sou h Asia. The simula ion esul s indica e ha he lo-
gis ics weigh in he SASEC will shi o he eas , leading o o e land connec ions wi h he as ma ke s o China
and Sou heas Asia. Fu he mo e, his s udy shows he easibili y o imp o ing he connec i i y o he h ee
inland egions wi h he coope a ion o po s, conside ing he u u e g ow h o ca go shipping demand and he
impo ance o implemen ing co ido de elopmen and bo de acili a ion oge he .
1. In oduc ion
S anda diza ion o anspo by employing con aine s has enabled
mo e e icien global shipping. Combined wi h he ecen g ow h o he
global economy, egional economic linkages, and he in e na ional di-
ision o labo , ade wi h con aine s has expanded wo ldwide,
including in de eloping coun ies, as shown in Fig. 1. Fu he mo e,
con aine s ha e g ea ly imp o ed he connec i i y be ween seapo s and
he anspo ne wo ks in he hin e land a eas, such as oads, ail oads,
and coas al wa e ways. Consequen ly, he in e modal (i.e., land and sea)
anspo ne wo ks ia seapo s ha e become mo e complex. Fo hese
easons, he e is a need o simula e he impac o logis ics policies on
in e modal anspo ne wo ks using he model ha can ep oduce
global con aine ized ca go lows, including land and sea anspo
modes.
This s udy ocuses on he Sou h Asia Sub egional Economic Coop-
e a ion (SASEC) egion su ounding he Bay o Bengal. Wi h a apidly
g owing economy and a la ge popula ion, his egion is expec ed o in-
c ease ca go shipping demand in he u u e, as shown in Fig. 1, bu i s
logis ics in as uc u e is highly agile. The e o e, he egion needs o
mee he expec ed g ow h in logis ics demand, and logis ics policies such
as in as uc u e de elopmen and c oss-bo de acili a ion mus be
ca ied ou e icien ly wi hin he limi ed esou ces a ailable.
The keys o de eloping con aine logis ics in he SASEC egion a e
egional coope a ion and in eg a ion. Acco ding o he Doing Business
da abase (Wo ld Bank G oup, 2022), Sou h Asia is one o he leas in-
eg a ed egions in he wo ld, which makes i di icul o enhance sus-
ainable and inclusi e economic g ow h in he egion. The SASEC was
launched in 2001 o ealize he egional in eg a ion, and e o s o
p omo e in a- egional ade ha e achie ed ce ain esul s. Howe e ,
no only p omo ing in a- egional ade bu also acili a ing
in e - egional o in e na ional ade is necessa y o u he p og ess.
F om such a pe spec i e, one impo an issue is s eng hening connec-
ions be ween he SASEC egion and ma i ime ga eways. In pa icula , in
landlocked egions such as Bhu an, Nepal, and no heas India, poo
logis ics ne wo ks and sys ems wi h subs an ial anspo cos s and ime
a e signi ican p oblems in connec ing o egional po s. Speci ic mea-
su es include elimina ing uck ans e s a he bo de s, imp o ing
cus oms e iciency, and cons uc ing co ido s ha connec inland e-
gions wi h seapo s (Asian De elopmen Bank, 2016, 2019). The inland
* Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (R. Shibasaki).
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/ajsl
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.ajsl.2024.01.003
Recei ed 4 Janua y 2023; Recei ed in e ised o m 2 Janua y 2024; Accep ed 18 Janua y 2024
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
62
SASEC egion has unique logis ics en i onmen s based on complex
geog aphical condi ions, such as a dis ance ad an age o access he
seapo s i ca go can ansi neighbo ing coun y (i.e., Bangladesh)
ac oss he bo de s and a dis ance ad an age o access neighbo ing
coun y’s po s ac oss he bo de s a he han he po s cu en ly used (i.
e., India).
The e o e, his s udy ocuses on he connec i i y o he inland SASEC
egion o global ma ke s h ough seapo s, and aims o quan i a i ely
analyze he impac o each logis ics policy o con ibu e o policy p i-
o i iza ion. Fo such analysis, i is necessa y o conside bo h a de ailed
hin e land ne wo k co e ing no only Sou h Asia bu also adjacen e-
gions such as China and Sou heas Asia, as well as he global ma i ime
anspo ne wo k. Howe e , no esea ch has conduc ed u u e logis ics
policy analysis a ge ing in e na ional con aine ca go on such a global
ne wo k. One o he easons o such sca ce s udies on his egion, o he
han da a a ailabili y, is ha in analyzing a speci ic egion o he wo ld
in de ail, especially o in e na ional dono s such as in e na ional o -
ganiza ions and he go e nmen s o de eloped coun ies, he wo ld is
o en di ided in o gene al egional di isions such as Sou h and Sou h-
eas Asia; he e o e, Myanma ⸺gene ally ca ego ized in Sou heas
Asia⸺and o he Sou h Asian coun ies we e usually analyzed
sepa a ely.
To ill his esea ch gap, his s udy ex ends he global logis ics
in e modal ne wo k simula ion (GLINS) model, de eloped by Shibasaki
e al. (2020), o he SASEC egion, co e ing se e al gene al egional
di isions (i.e., China, Sou heas Asia, and Sou h Asia) as he land a ea. In
he GLINS model, on a gi en ca go shipping demand and in e modal
anspo ne wo k, indi idual ca go s ochas ically selec s anspo
ou es and shipping companies, conside ing conges ion due o capaci y
cons ain s in each anspo mode and po e minal. The model is hen
used o quan i a i ely analyze he impac o a ious logis ics policies on
anspo cos s and u u e ca go anspo pa e ns in he SASEC egion,
conside ing u u e g ow h in logis ics demand. We quan i y he impac
o he logis ics policies, such as co ido de elopmen and c oss-bo de
acili a ion, in he a ge yea 2035 by measu ing changes in anspo
pa e ns and shipping cos s by he ou es and modes o each ca go
o igina ing om de ailed zones o he inland SASEC egion.
The emains o his pape a e o ganized as ollows, as summa ized in
Fig. 2: Sec ion 2 summa izes he ela ed li e a u e om indus ial and
academic iewpoin s and posi ions his pape ; Sec ion 3 desc ibes he
model o e iew and inpu da a and calib a es and alida es he
ex ended model; Sec ion 4 gi es he simula ion esul s ocusing on
u u e c oss-bo de acili a ion and co ido de elopmen policies as
well as comp ehensi e policy scena ios a e cu en scena io analysis
and u u e scena io se ing; hen inally Sec ion 5 summa izes he
conclusion o his pape .
2. Li e a u e e iew
2.1. Li e a u e e iew om an indus ial iewpoin : Logis ics en i onmen
in he SASEC egion
The SASEC is an economic associa ion in Sou h Asia consis ing o he
Bay o Bengal egion and Myanma . I s se en membe coun ies a e
Bangladesh, Bhu an, India, Maldi es, Myanma , Nepal, and S i Lanka.
The SASEC egion is one o he as es -g owing economies, along wi h
China and Sou heas Asia (In e na ional Mone a y Fund, 2022). The
o al GDP o he SASEC egion su passed ha o ASEAN in 2016,
eaching 3.185 illion USD in 2020, abou h ee imes he 2006 le el. In
addi ion, he SASEC has a as popula ion and is expec ed o become an
eno mous consume labo ma ke , su passing China’s popula ion in
2000. Wi h such a high economic g ow h a e and abundan popula ion,
he demand o con aine shipping is also g owing signi ican ly. The
i e-yea a e age inc ease in con aine shipping demand is compa able
o ha o ASEAN and China. In pa icula , impo s, an indica o o he
consump ion ma ke , ha e a e aged abo e 4% and a e expec ed o g ow
signi ican ly (IHS Ma ki , 2022).
Despi e hese g ow h po en ials, he de elopmen o anspo co -
ido s and he acili a ion o bo de c ossings ha e ye o p og ess
smoo hly in he SASEC egion, esul ing in high c oss-bo de cos s. The
de elopmen o anspo co ido s includes he cons uc ion o new
sec ions, an inc ease in capaci y by inc easing he numbe o oad lanes
and equency o ains and inland wa e ways, and an inc ease in speed.
The acili a ion o bo de c ossings includes ins i u ional a angemen s,
such as c oss-bo de uck pe mi s and simpli ica ion and cen aliza ion
o cus oms clea ance, and bo de acili y enhancemen s, such as digi-
aliza ion o cus oms clea ance. In pa icula , i is e y c i ical o he
h ee landlocked egions o Bhu an, Nepal, and he eigh s a es o
no heas India (A unachal, Assam, Manipu , Meghalaya, Mizo am,
Nagaland, Sikkim, and T ipu a). Bhu an and Nepal a e bo de ed on he
no h by he Himalayas wi h di icul ies in co ido de elopmen and on
he sou h by only one coun y, India. Mo eo e , he o he land bo de s
o India (i.e., hose wi h Bangladesh, China, Myanma , and Pakis an) a e
no ac i e in ade and logis ics ac i i ies due o his o ical and poli ical
Fig. 1. T ends in con aine ca go h oughpu o he wo ld and SASEC egion (Fo ecas s o 2021 and beyond).
Sou ce: GTAS Fo ecas ing Da abase (IHS Ma ki , 2022).
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
63
easons. In no heas India, he connec ion o mainland India is limi ed
o a na ow a ea called he Siligu i co ido , which is a logis ics
bo leneck (see Fig. 4 in Sec ion 3). This ci cums ance has isola ed he
h ee inland egions om he global ma ke ia seapo s and ma i ime
shipping. The e o e, he e a e conce ns abou he o e all abili y o he
SASEC egion o g ow h ough smoo h in a- and in e - egional ade.
The logis ics policies in Bangladesh and India a e essen ial o
main aining he connec i i y o hese inland egions o global ma ke s
ia seapo s. Al hough oads a e he p io i y o he SASEC land anspo
in mos cases, many a eas lack exp essways, and some lack na ional
highways. The e o e, he majo oads in he egion a e being de eloped
as Asian Highway Class I ( wo-lane oads) in ela i ely la a eas and
Asian Highway Class II (single-lane oads) in hilly and moun ainous
egions o imp o e he egion’s oad anspo ne wo k (Asian De el-
opmen Bank, 2016). Mo eo e , he de elopmen o he ail oad, which
plays a i al ole in India, mus be caugh up in eas e n India. The
Dedica ed F eigh Co ido s (DFC) p ojec , he wo ld’s i s elec ic
eigh ail line ha ca ies double-loading con aine s, opened in
Janua y 2021 along a sec ion o i s Wes e n Co ido . When he en i e
line opens, i is expec ed o signi ican ly imp o e logis ics e iciency by
sho ening anspo ime and inc easing ca go anspo capaci y pe
ain. The Minis y o Railways in India also plans o connec India wi h
Bangladesh and Nepal by ail, whe eas Bangladesh has a p ojec o
connec he po s o Mongla and Chi agong wi h h ee inland egions by
ail and inland wa e way anspo (Asian De elopmen Bank, 2016).
Go e nmen s in he SASEC coun ies conside p omo ing smoo h bo de
c ossing by elimina ing uck ansshipmen a he bo de and uni ying
and digi izing cus oms p ocedu es (in e iews wi h go e nmen
agencies, 2022).
2.2. Li e a u e e iew in he academic con ex and posi ioning o his
s udy
In his s udy, we quan i a i ely analyze SASEC’s logis ics policies o
Fig. 2. Flow o his s udy.
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
64
imp o ing he connec i i y o inland a eas by applying a ne wo k
simula ion model o global ma i ime con aine ca go, conside ing bo h
land and sea anspo modes.
In gene al, mos in e na ional ma i ime con aine shipping s udies
we e conduc ed om he s andpoin o line shipping companies,
ocusing on he design o hei ne wo k and se ice le el, as e iewed by
Meng e al. (2014), T an and Haasis (2015), Lee & Song (2017), Ch is-
iansen e al. (2020), and Chen e al. (2022). Mo eo e , e en o he
s udies ocusing on he shippe s’ side, as his pape , mos globally
alloca ing ca go on he ne wo k used simpli ied models ha lea e issues
on ep oducibili y o ail o analyze he policies. S udies on de eloping
and analyzing global in e modal logis ics ne wo k models include
Ta asszy e al. (2011) wi h he pa h-size logi model and In e na ional
T anspo Fo um, OECD (2015) wi h he sho es pa h inding model.
Shibasaki e al. (2020) de eloped a global logis ics in e modal ne wo k
simula ion (GLINS) model, a ne wo k equilib ium assignmen model in
which he ca go shipping demand and se ice le el o he anspo
ne wo k a e gi en, and indi idual ca go chooses hei anspo modes
and ou es. The anspo ne wo k and each seapo ha e he capaci y o
accoun o conges ion. High ep oducibili y has been con i med in he
model, and he model was applied o a ious egions o he wo ld o
simula e he impac o a ious logis ics policies.
A ew s udies ocused on imp o ing connec i i y in he SASEC e-
gion. A i ua e al. (2018) used a g a i y model o analyze mac oscopic
eigh demand and de ailed ca go low o suppo designing eigh
anspo ne wo ks, bu i s scope was limi ed o India. Sub amanian &
Thill (2019) used a logi model o analyze how he p i a iza ion o po s
a ec s he wo key indus ial co ido s o India, bu i conside ed only
India and lacked c oss-bo de analysis. Shibasaki & Kawasaki (2019)
de eloped a model o p edic global con aine mo emen s ocusing on a
con aine ansshipmen hub in Sou h Asia, bu i conside ed only he
ma i ime shipping ne wo k. Dong e al. (2020) analyzed in e modal
logis ics ne wo ks om en i onmen al and cos pe spec i es, bu hei
analysis was limi ed o he anspo o inished ca s wi hin India and did
no co e any o he coun ies o ca go. Saha (2020) p oposed he po-
en ial o he po o Chi agong as a hub in he Bay o Bengal and he
necessa y co ido s, bu his analysis was limi ed o a quali a i e
app oach based on documen s, li e a u e e iew, and in e iews.
Expanding he a ge egion o ASEAN, S one & S u , Chap. 5) (2010)
examined mul iple scena ios o he GDP g ow h po en ial o he G ea e
Mekong Sub egion (GMS), and S u e al. (2018) analyzed GMS
de elopmen policies using a da abase o simula e ade acili a ion.
Tansakul e al. (2018) ocused on he Eas –Wes co ido o he GMS and
applied an analy ic hie a chy p ocess o examine he e ec s o a ious
ac o s enhanced by ade acili a ion. Howe e , hese s udies we e no
speci ic o logis ics ne wo ks. Yamaguchi e al. (2021) conduc ed a
simula ion on he impac o Myanma ’s logis ics policies on anspo
pa e ns, including de eloping he Eas –Wes and Sou he n co ido s in
he GMS and he po o Dawei.
Among hem, Shibasaki & Kawasaki (2021) ocused on alloca ing
con aine ca go in Sou h Asia using he GLINS model, bu some issues
emained. Thei model did no conside in e na ional land ca go im-
po ed and expo ed wi hou ma i ime shipping and only conside ed
h ee coun ies (Bangladesh, India, and S i Lanka) as he hin e land. In
o he wo ds, hei model did no include landlocked coun ies (such as
Bhu an and Nepal) and he su ounding a eas in Sou h Asia, no in e -
na ional land anspo wi h Sou heas Asia and China ia he
India–Myanma bo de . Mo eo e , hey did no e iew de ailed logis ic
policies, including c oss-bo de acili a ion and co ido de elopmen in
he SASEC egion. Fu he mo e, hey did no conside u u e eigh
demand. I is essen ial o conside u u e eigh demand i simula ing
a ious logis ics policies in he SASEC egion, which has a high u u e
g ow h a e. In addi ion, he model s uc u e and alloca ion algo i hm
used in his s udy a e imp o ed acco ding o Yamaguchi e al. (2023),
enabling mo e s able and eliable solu ions.
3. Model
3.1. Model o e iew
This s udy applies he GLINS model (Shibasaki e al., 2020) o he
SASEC egion, including local seapo s and land anspo ne wo ks wi h
de ailed zoning. The model is an equilib ium assignmen model in which
indi idual ca go s ochas ically selec s anspo ou es and ca ie s,
gi en in e - egional ca go shipping demand, land and sea anspo
ne wo ks, and hei se ice le els. We conside in e na ional ma i ime
shipping, oads, ail oads, and inland wa e way anspo as anspo
modes.
The concep o he GLINS model is o cons uc a model ha can mee
p ac ical needs such as he e alua ion o in e na ional logis ics policies;
in o he wo ds, a model should be heo e ically simple, ha e high
ep oducibili y, and include policy a iables. To ensu e simplici y, he
GLINS model was cons uc ed wi h as ew a iables as possible a he
han p epa ing many dummy a iables as in he gene al logi model.
The e o e, he model assumed ha each ca go de e mines i s anspo
ou e and mode o minimize i s cos and ime (in o he wo ds, cos and
ime a e he mos undamen al a iables). Then, o conside ing ime
and mone a y cos on a single scale, he model adop ed he gene alized
cos , which can be ob ained by con e ing ime in o mone a y cos by
mul iplying he ime alue coe icien . Pa ame e a iables o hese
unc ions we e selec ed and e ined o ensu e ep oducibili y, ep esen
egional di e ences, and include necessa y policy a iables. As a esul ,
we succeeded in cons uc ing a model ha has high ep oducibili y e en
i i was applied o a ious egions o he wo ld and can p ope ly e al-
ua e he logis ics policies (Shibasaki e al., 2020).
One ea u e o he model is ha each ca ie and po has a capaci y
cons ain , and i ca go lows app oach he capaci y limi , conges ion
occu s, and ansi ime inc eases. The eason o conside ing capaci y
cons ain and using a cos unc ion inco po a ing he conges ion e m is
ha i be e ep esen s he eal logis ics en i onmen . I he ne wo k
assignmen is based on simple cos minimiza ion wi hou any capaci y
cons ain s, each ca go would independen ly selec he mos con enien
po s and se ices, and he model ou pu would ep esen excessi e
ca go concen a ions in speci ic po s and se ices. Howe e , i is mo e
na u al o assume ha each shippe o o wa de conside s he p esence
o o he ca go and he conges ion in ad ance in selec ing ou es;
he e o e, he GLINS model conside s a cos unc ion inco po a ing he
conges ion e m and adop s he equilib ium assignmen me hodology.
In he model, he anspo ou e and mode o each ca go is chosen
based on i s u ili y. Assuming ha he unobse able e o e m depends
on indi idual ca go and is independen o each o he ollowing a Gumbel
dis ibu ion, he p obabili y o selec ing each ou e and he amoun o
ca go o each ou e can be desc ibed by a ela i ely simple exponen ial
unc ion, and Dial’s (1971) algo i hm can be used o he assignmen
calcula ion. The expec ed maximum u ili y o each ca go is calcula ed
om he log-sum a iable, a s anda d measu e o consume su plus in
he s ochas ic assignmen . The impac o he logis ics policies on each
ca go can be measu ed as changes in he expec ed maximum u ili y a e
he implemen a ion.
The o e all s uc u e o he model is shown in Fig. 3. The model
consis s o he main model, which in eg a es he global ma i ime ship-
ping ne wo k and he de ailed land anspo ne wo k, and he sub-
module o a de ailed ma i ime shipping ne wo k. Shibasaki e al.
(2020) conside ed a de ailed land anspo ne wo k in a di e en sub-
module because applying s ochas ic use equilib ium assignmen o a
la ge-scale ne wo k was di icul . Yamaguchi e al. (2023) (he eina e
“ he exis ing model”) hen in eg a ed i in o he main model by changing
he me hod om he use equilib ium assignmen o he inc emen al
assignmen , in which hey epea ed he calcula ion o inc emen ally
adding link lows and inc easing link cos s acco dingly. No ably, a
de ailed ma i ime shipping ne wo k should be kep sepa a ed om he
main model and calcula ed as an independen submodule because, in he
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
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in e na ional ma ine con aine shipping ma ke , eigh a es a e ex-
pec ed o be de e mined based on ou es (i.e., on a pa h basis) be ween
po s a he han based on links es ablished a each po o call. This
s udy ollows he exis ing GLINS model by educing he numbe o spli s
o he inc emen al assignmen in he main model om 50 o 30 o a oid
signi ican ly inc easing he calcula ion ime because o he model
expansion. The de ails o he exis ing GLINS model a e desc ibed in
Supplemen al Ma e ial.
In applying he GLINS model o Sou h Asia, we exp ess he unique
cha ac e is ics o he Sou h Asian egion wi hin a limi ed numbe o
a iables based on he ield and in e iew su eys. Fo example, he
need o wai se e al weeks o bo de c ossing is ep esen ed by he
bo de ba ie coe icien , which is discussed in Sec ion 3.3. Mo eo e ,
he ea u e ha ca go anspo ed by ail should be loaded o discha ged
o ucks a inland con aine depo s in he SASEC egion is ep esen ed
by he limi ed oad- ail connec ion links, which a e desc ibed in de ail in
Fig. 3. The o e all s uc u e o he model.
Sou ce: Au ho s based on Yamaguchi e al. (2023).
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
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Supplemen al Ma e ial. Fu he mo e, al hough he ime alue coe i-
cien gene ally di e s by ca go ype, and some s udies (Nakamu a e al.,
2022; Inoue e al., 2023; Sugimu a e al., 2023) using he GLINS model
adop ed a ew di e en ypes o ca go wi h di e en ime alue co-
e icien s, his s udy uses he common ime alue coe icien wi hou any
ca go ype di e ences mainly due o compu a ion ime. Since he majo
impo /expo i ems signi ican ly di e among Sou h Asian coun ies, i
would no be e y impo an o se jus a ew di e en ime cos s o
Sou h Asia.
3.2. Inpu da a
The ou ypes o inpu da a equi ed o his model a e po , ma ine
shipping ne wo k da a, land anspo ne wo k da a, and in e egional
ca go shipping demand da a. These a e cons uc ed based on 2018 da a.
3.2.1. Ta ge po s and in e modal ne wo ks
In addi ion o he po s conside ed in he exis ing model, se en
seapo s a e selec ed as SASEC’s local po s, as in Shibasaki & Kawasaki
(2021): Mongla in Bangladesh, Haldia, Kandla, Mangalo e, Mo mugao,
and Vishakhapa nam in India, and Male in he Maldi es. These local
po s a e chosen i a leas wo line se ices call a , based on he 2018
MDS Con aine ship Da abank da a (MDS T ansmodal Inc, 2022), excep
o he po o Mumbai in India, whe e he shipping companies o call
we e di e en om o he po s. Consequen ly, 215 po s o he wo ld
a e selec ed in he model.
Rega ding he ma i ime shipping ne wo k, 11 local line shipping
companies a e selec ed in addi ion o hose conside ed in he exis ing
model using he MDS da a o co e 90% o he o al onnage in he a ge
po s. Consequen ly, he 51 shipping companies in he model accoun
o 94% o he ull onnage capaci y o he a ge po s. The o al numbe
o line se ices in he model is 1128.
This s udy expands he land anspo ne wo k o include
Bangladesh, Bhu an, India, and Nepal om he exis ing model. This
allows Sou heas and Cen al Asia o be connec ed ia Sou h Asia and
hus enables a mo e comp ehensi e desc ip ion o o e land anspo in
he Eu asia con inen . Consequen ly, he o al numbe o nodes in he
land anspo ne wo k is 24,104 (including 1026 o igin–des ina ion
nodes, o O–D nodes), and he o al numbe o links is 28,037. The en i e
land anspo ne wo k o his model and he de ailed land ne wo k o
Sou h Asia a e shown in Fig. 4. This model exp esses he inc ease in
aile cos s o eposi ioning emp y con aine s by making he oad
mileage in he model longe han he ac ual oad dis ance.
Fig. 4. Land anspo ne wo k and po s in he SASEC egion conside ed in his s udy.
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
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67
3.2.2. In e - egional ca go shipping demand
The model conside s in e na ional ma i ime con aine ized ca go and
o e land con aine -equi alen ca go and does no conside domes ic
con aine ized ca go, emp y con aine s, and o he ypes o ca go han
con aine ized ca go. This s udy de e mines he numbe o O–D zones in
Bangladesh, Bhu an, India, and Nepal acco ding o he economic scale o
each coun y. India is di ided in o 551 zones based on p e ec u al di-
isions, as in Shibasaki & Kawasaki (2021), a e some O–D zones a e
in eg a ed due o he inabili y o place hei ep esen a i e nodes
sepa a ely on he ne wo k. Bangladesh is di ided in o 64 zones based on
p e ec u al di isions, as in Shibasaki & Kawasaki (2021). Bhu an and
Nepal a e di ided in o wo and se en zones based on eas –wes and s a e
di isions, espec i ely.
Since he a ailabili y and p ecision o da a di e by coun y, we use
di e en indices o each coun y o di ide he coun y-le el ca go
shipping demand, which is acqui ed om he GTAS Fo ecas ing Da a-
base (IHS Ma ki , 2022), in o he zone-le el demand. Fo India, we use
cus oms s a is ics da a as o Augus 2018 by agg ega ing impo /expo
olume by i em, pa ne coun y, and domes ic a ea. Then, hey a e
mul iplied by he deadweigh con e sion ac o and con aine iza ion
a e o each i em based on he GTAS Fo ecas ing Da abase and added up
o all i ems. Fo Bangladesh, he egional expo /impo sha e is
calcula ed sepa a ely based on he da a ob ained om Bangladesh Bu-
eau o S a is ics (2022): he expo sha e is es ima ed based on he
numbe o ac o ies o ju e and ga men s, which a e Bangladesh’s majo
expo commodi ies, and he expo sha e o each i em. Rega ding he
impo sha e, we i s calcula e he impo sha es o consume goods and
aw ma e ials sepa a ely, which is subs i u ed by egional GDP and
expo sha e, espec i ely, and hen hey a e added up conside ing he
sha e o consume goods and aw ma e ials o each egion. Fo Nepal,
we es ima e he egional expo /impo sha e by he 2019 egional GDP
sha e in non-ag icul u al commodi ies (Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics,
2022), such as manu ac u ing and se ices, conside ing ha his s udy
ocuses on con aine ized and con aine -equi alen ca go. Fo Bhu an,
due o he di icul y in ob aining economic indica o s such as GDP, we
di ide he coun y’s ade da a by he sha e o he numbe o es ab-
lishmen s in 2017 (Na ional S a is ics Bu eau, 2022).
3.3. Calib a ion on c oss-bo de ba ie s
The coe icien s on eigh cha ges o land anspo in Sou h Asia a e
se simila ly o hose in o he egions o he Eu asian con inen excep
o Sou heas Asia (Shibasaki e al., 2020). Any o he coe icien s han
he c oss-bo de ba ie ones in Sou h Asia a e simila ly se as Yama-
guchi e al. (2023).
The c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien s indica e how many imes he
cos and ime equi ed o ca go o c oss he na ional bo de in bonded
anspo (whe e he coun y is no he inal des ina ion) compa ed o
he cos and ime needed o impo and expo ca go (which we e ob-
ained om he Doing Business da abase, Wo ld Bank G oup, 2022). The
highe he alue, he highe he cos o c ossing he bo de . The coe i-
cien is se empi ically o each combina ion o bo de coun ies in he
model. Rega ding he SASEC egion, hey a e de e mined by he cali-
b a ion shown below.
In o de o educe he impac o model expansion on he ep oduc-
ibili y o he exis ing model, he c oss-bo de ba ie s be ween ou side
and inside coun ies o he SASEC egion a e i s de e mined based on
he ep oducibili y o he po ca go h oughpu s o ou side coun ies.
Then, he bo de ba ie s wi hin he SASEC egion a e de e mined.
Based on he in e iew su ey esul s, we conside he ollowing as-
sump ions because o he his o ical backg ound and delay o he logis-
ics policies. (1) The olume o in e na ional ma i ime con aine ca go
(excluding in a- egional ca go impo ed/expo ed wi hou going
h ough po s) c ossing he India–Pakis an bo de is minimal. (2) The
olume o in e na ional ma i ime con aine ca go c ossing he
India–Bangladesh bo de is low.
Fi s , we de e mine he ba ie coe icien o he India–Pakis an
bo de . Fig. 5 shows he po ca go h oughpu s and bo de ansi ca go
olume o each c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien . Based on he esul s, we
se he India–Pakis an c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien o 1.5 as he base
case, which highly ag ees wi h he obse ed h oughpu s in Pakis ani
po s (i.e., a sum o Bin Qasim and Ka achi). In his se ing, he ca go
olume ansi ing he India–Pakis an bo de is almos iden ical o ha o
in a- egional ca go be ween hese coun ies. This esul is consis en
wi h assump ion (1).
Subsequen ly, we de e mine he ba ie coe icien o he
Fig. 5. Change in po ca go h oughpu s in India and Pakis an and amoun o ca go ansi ing he India–Pakis an bo de by di e en c oss-bo de ba ie
coe icien s.
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
68
India–Bangladesh bo de . Fig. 6 shows he po ca go h oughpu s and
bo de ansi ca go olume o each c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien .
Based on he esul s, we se he India–Bangladesh c oss-bo de ba ie
coe icien o 0.8 as he base case, which highly ag ees wi h he obse ed
h oughpu s in Bangladeshi po s (i.e., a sum o Chi agong and Mongla).
In his case, he ca go olume ansi ing he India–Bangladesh bo de is
sligh ly la ge han he olume o in a- egional ca go. This esul is also
consis en wi h assump ion (2).
Nex , ega ding he India/Bangladesh–Myanma bo de , i is di icul
o de e mine he c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien s om he obse ed
bo de ansi ca go olume because i is minimal compa ed o he po
ca go h oughpu . Based on he in e iew su ey, we assume he main
ansi ba ie on he India/Bangladesh–Myanma bo de is he absence
o a la ge ci y on he Myanma side o he bo de . The e o e, i is se a
1.0, less han hose on he India–Pakis an bo de , whe e he e a e po-
li ical p oblems, and g ea e han hose on he India–Bangladesh bo de ,
whe e uck ansshipmen is a ba ie .
Finally, ega ding he Nepal and Bhu an bo de s, i is also chal-
lenging o de e mine he c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien s based on he
olume o ca go c ossing he bo de because almos all ca go om Nepal
and Bhu an c osses he Indian bo de . Based on he esul s o in e iews
wi h expe s in logis ics companies, he ba ie coe icien o he India/
Nepal/Bhu an–China bo de is de e mined o be 1.0, which is he same
ba ie le el as he India/Bangladesh–Myanma bo de , and he ba ie
coe icien o he Nepal/Bhu an–India bo de is de e mined o be 0.8,
which is he same ba ie le el as he India–Bangladesh bo de .
The abo e calib a ion con i ms he alidi y o he model ha he
dec ease o ba ie s a each bo de inc eases he olume o ca go an-
si ing he bo de as we expec ed. In addi ion, we ind ha he
India–Pakis an and India–Bangladesh bo de s ha e di e en cha ac e -
is ics. Speci ically, in he India–Pakis an bo de ca go, he dec ease and
inc ease in he po ca go h oughpu s o he wo coun ies a e almos
equal. In o he wo ds, i he ba ie on he India–Pakis an bo de de-
c eases, some Pakis ani ca go would shi o Indian po s o use. In
con as , in he India–Bangladesh bo de ca go, he o al po ca go
h oughpu s o he wo coun ies dec ease wi h he bo de ba ie
dec ease. Namely, i he ba ie on he India–Bangladesh bo de de-
c eases, some in a- egional ca go be ween India and Bangladesh will
shi om ma i ime shipping o land anspo .
Ano he inding is ha i is di icul o he SASEC coun ies o
connec o huge ma ke s such as China and Sou heas Asia ia land
ou es h ough Myanma in he cu en en i onmen . Fig. 7 shows he
bo de ansi ca go olume o he India/Bangladesh–Myanma bo de
a each bo de ba ie coe icien . I is less han one-hund ed h o ha
ansi ing he India–Pakis an bo de , e en unde ideal condi ions o ze o
bo de ba ie . In Sec ion 4, we analyze he possibili y o connec ing
wi h huge ma ke s such as China and Sou heas Asia o he u he
g ow h o he SASEC coun ies i he ca go shipping demand inc eases
and logis ics policies a e implemen ed in he u u e.
3.4. Model alida ion and e i ica ion
3.4.1. Model con e gence
The model does no gua an ee con e gence o he i e a i e calcu-
la ions o he main model and he ma i ime shipping submodule.
Fig. 6. Changes in po ca go h oughpu s in India and Bangladesh and amoun o ca go ansi ing he India–Bangladesh bo de by di e en c oss-bo de ba ie
coe icien s.
Fig. 7. Change in amoun o ca go ansi ing he India/Bangladesh–Myanma
bo de by di e en c oss-bo de ba ie coe icien s.
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logis ics policies ha a e expec ed o be easible and e ec i e, including
a educ ion in he c oss-bo de ba ie s and he de elopmen o all
SASEC co ido s o igina ing om he po o Kolka a (wi h mo e
enhancing oad capaci ies nea he po a ea) and Bangladesh. The
ba ie coe icien s in all SASEC bo de s a e se om 0 ( he ideal case) o
0.4 ( he ealis ic case o in a- egional coope a ion, which is compa able
o he cu en le el o he ASEAN egion).
Table 4 shows he changes in he expec ed maximum u ili y om he
2035 base scena io o ca go o/ om he h ee inland egions. The able
indica es ha anspo cos s gene ally dec ease, excep o expo ca go
om Nepal. Fig. 22 shows he es ima ed link lows o ca go o igina ing
om he h ee inland egions in he 2035 base scena io, he scena io
wi h co ido de elopmen bu he bo de ba ie coe icien a 0.4, and
he scena io wi h co ido de elopmen and he bo de ba ie coe i-
cien a 0.1. F om hese esul s, he obse a ion ha anspo cos s o
ca go expo ed om Nepal do no dec ease can be explained by he shi
o expo po s om Kolka a o mo e sou he n Indian po s, such as
Visakhapa nam, because o being pushed ou by o he ca go.
Ano he inding is ha no signi ican change is obse ed in o e all
land lows o ca go o igina ing om he h ee inland egions unde he
bo de ba ie coe icien o 0.4, e en i all co ido s a e de eloped. In
o he wo ds, he e is li le incen i e o change he anspo ou e; hus,
he bene i s o co ido de elopmen a e pu ely caused by he educ ion
o anspo cos s on he ou e. Howe e , i he co ido s a e de eloped
wi h an ideal educ ion in bo de ba ie s, a signi ican change in he
o e all land lows o ca go om he h ee inland egions is obse ed,
Fig. 13. Es ima ed changes in he sha e o po ca go h oughpu (Red: Bay o Bengal side, Blue: A abian Seaside).
Fig. 14. Es ima ed ca go lows o ca go o igina ing om each inland egion.
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
76
Fig. 15. Es ima ed link lows o ca go o igina ing om no heas India by di e en ba ie coe icien s a he SASEC bo de .
Fig. 16. Es ima ed link lows o ca go o igina ing om Bhu an by di e en ba ie coe icien s a he SASEC bo de .
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
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esul ing in inc eased bene i s om changing he ou e. This esul
sugges s he impo ance o bo de acili a ion being accompanied by
co ido de elopmen .
In addi ion, e en in he scena io in his subsec ion whe e he bo de
acili a ion and co ido de elopmen a e su icien ly implemen ed,
ca go o igina ing om no heas India, which is pa icula ly bene icial
o he use o he po o Chi agong, is no signi ican ly concen a ed in
he po o Chi agong, al hough we conside he u u e limi a ion in he
i e po s (such as Haldia, Kolka a, and Mongla) ha is ad an ageous o
he po o Chi agong (see Sec ion 4.2). This sugges s ha he e is oom
o new line se ices p o ided o call a he po o Chi agong, which
was no conside ed in his s udy and hus is a u he issue o be
Fig. 17. Es ima ed link lows o ca go o igina ing om Nepal by di e en ba ie coe icien s a he SASEC bo de .
Fig. 18. Ca go olume ansi ing he India–Bangladesh bo de o igina ing om h ee inland egions by di e en ba ie coe icien s a he SASEC bo de .
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Table 2
Inc ease o dec ease in he expec ed maximum u ili ies (log-sum a iables) o ca go o/ om h ee inland egions by di e en ba ie coe icien s a he SASEC bo de
om he 2035 base scena io.
Bo de ba ie coe icien
(USD/TEU) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
No heas
india
Expo 226 69 55 24
Impo 282 162 67 -48
Nepal Expo 100 -59 10 36
Impo 203 153 97 46
Bhu an Expo 205 120 92 66
Impo 261 170 86 33
Fig. 19. Inc eased ca go h oughpu s in Bangladeshi po s om 2018 by di e en ba ie coe icien s a SASEC bo de .
Fig. 20. SASEC co ido s co e ed in his s udy.
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The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
79
conside ed in u u e s udies.
5. Conclusion
This s udy ex ended he GLINS model, de eloped by Shibasaki e al.
(2020) and imp o ed by Yamaguchi e al. (2023), o enable analyses
ocusing on he inland egions in he SASEC egion and conside ing
in e ac ions wi h coun ies ou side he egion ia na ional bo de s.
Based on he s udy esul s o he cu en logis ics en i onmen , we
p edic ed he u u e logis ics en i onmen in he SASEC egion,
conside ing a high u u e g ow h a e, and analyzed he impac o
a ious logis ics policies such as co ido de elopmen and bo de
acili a ion on he egion.
The sugges ions acqui ed om he simula ion esul s o his s udy a e
as ollows. The esul s showed ha i policies in he SASEC egion o
de elop he anspo co ido s and acili a e bo de c ossings, such as
simpli ica ion o cus oms p ocedu es, we e implemen ed, ca go o/ om
inland egions would be anspo ed o po s ia mo e di ec ou es e en
i he numbe o bo de c ossings inc eases. Mo eo e , he esul s ga e
an impo an implica ion o a coas al coun y: Bangladesh. The policies
o imp o e he connec i i y o inland egions o Bangladeshi po s may
no always bene i Bangladesh, he ac ual policy implemen e . F om
Bangladesh’s s andpoin , easie bo de c ossings and be e -de eloped
co ido s would no only inc ease he in low o ca go om inland e-
gions bu also inc ease he ou low o Bangladeshi ca go, which could
educe he olume o ca go handled a Bangladeshi po s. The esul s
made i di icul o he Bangladeshi go e nmen o ha e he mo i a ion
o implemen he policies; hus, i is c ucial o conside he impac on no
only inland egions bu also coas al coun ies o ob ain coope a ion om
he coas al side. In he simula ion esul s, Bangladeshi po s would no
educe hei ca go handling olume i su icien g ow h o u u e ca go
olume could o se such nega i e impac s. The inland SASEC egion has
unique logis ics en i onmen s based on complex geog aphical condi-
ions, such as a dis ance ad an age o access he seapo s i ca go can
ansi neighbo ing coun y ac oss he bo de s and a dis ance ad an age
o access neighbo ing coun y’s po s ac oss he bo de s a he han he
po s cu en ly used. The abo e implica ions acqui ed om his s udy
could be applicable o egions wi h simila complex geog aphical con-
di ions, including Cambodia⸺whe e he ga eway po compe i ion
can be obse ed in anspo ing ca go o/ om he capi al (Phnom Penh)
be ween Ho Chi Minh Ci y, a po in neighbo ing Vie nam, and Siha-
nouk ille, a po in i s own coun y ( o de ail, see Kosuge e al.,
2021)⸺and o he inland egions such as Cen al Asia (Shibasaki e al.,
2019) and A ica (Shibuya e al., 2023).
This s udy also indica ed ha he logis ics cen e o g a i y in he
SASEC egion would shi o he eas in he u u e, and o e land con-
nec ions ia Myanma wi h China and Sou heas Asia, whe e high eco-
nomic g ow h a es and ca go lows a e expec ed, may be s eng hened.
These esul s suppo he necessi y o he eas e n DFC co ido de el-
opmen and logis ics acili y imp o emen s on he bo de wi h
Table 3
Inc ease o dec ease in expec ed maximum u ili ies om he 2035 base scena io
o ca go o/ om h ee inland egions o each co ido o be de eloped.
(1) SASEC co ido o igina ed om he po o Kolka a
(USD/TEU) Road1 Road2 Road3 Rail1
No heas
india
Expo 64 54 62 32
Impo -130 -125 -125 -99
Nepal Expo 26 45 18 -41
Impo -8 3 -2 -20
Bhu an Expo 2 3 1 -13
Impo -8 -7 -9 -15
(2) SASEC co ido o igina ed om Bangladesh
(USD/TEU) Road4 Road5 Rail2
No heas
india
Expo 56 39 35
Impo 66 21 28
Nepal Expo 37 7 14
Impo -5 -1 -5
Bhu an Expo 31 20 27
Impo 15 -9 13
Fig. 21. Changes in ca go h oughpu in Bangladeshi po s om 2018 o each co ido de elopmen scena io.
Table 4
Inc ease o dec ease in expec ed maximum u ili ies om he 2035 base scena io
o ca go o/ om h ee inland egions o each bo de ba ie coe icien .
(USD/TEU) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
No heas
india
Expo 264 123 30 35 87
Impo 245 163 48 -46 -87
Nepal Expo -44 -68 -20 -13 -30
Impo 198 141 91 45 -5
Bhu an Expo 276 135 114 54 -3
Impo 263 173 89 41 -4
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80
Myanma . In mos p e ious s udies, especially hose implemen ed by
in e na ional dono s such as in e na ional o ganiza ions and he go -
e nmen s o de eloped coun ies, Myanma is ca ego ized in Sou heas
Asia and sepa a ely analyzed om o he Sou h Asian coun ies. This
s udy can ob ain he simula ion esul s using he GLINS model ha
co e s se e al gene al egional di isions, including China, Sou heas
Asia, and Sou h Asia, as in eg a ed co ido s.
This s udy also cla i ied he cha ac e is ics o he logis ics en i on-
men in he SASEC egion, such as he di e ences in he e ec s o
educed bo de ba ie s on he choice o anspo ou es among he
h ee inland egions, depending on hei loca ions. No heas India,
whe e he inc ease in anspo dis ance by ci cum en ing Bangladesh is
mos signi ican , has he bigges impac . Fu he mo e, his s udy showed
he easibili y o imp o ing he connec i i y o he h ee inland egions
h ough a ious logis ics policies, such as co ido de elopmen and
c oss-bo de acili a ion wi h he coope a ion o seapo s, because
Bangladeshi and Indian po s can main ain he 2018 ca go olume le el,
conside ing he u u e g ow h o ca go shipping demand. Finally, his
s udy p esen ed ha no signi ican change is obse ed in o e all land
lows o ca go o igina ing om he inland egions unde he bo de
ba ie coe icien o 0.4, e en i all co ido s a e de eloped. I indica es
ha bo de acili a ion policies should be p eceded by co ido
de elopmen .
In summa y, we can conclude as ollows. De eloping a model
capable o analyzing in e na ional con aine ized ca go lows consid-
e ing bo h de ailed inland ne wo ks and global ma i ime anspo
ne wo ks has made i possible o analyze he impac o logis ics policies
o enhancing he connec i i y o he inland SASEC egions o global
ma ke s ia egional seapo s. This is an essen ial pe spec i e o
implemen ing SASEC’s logis ics policies o ealize sus ainable and in-
clusi e egional g ow h. Speci ically, implemen ing logis ics policies o
he inland SASEC egion may hu he impo ance o Bangladeshi sea-
po s. Howe e , he g ow h in logis ics demand in he en i e egion will
be signi ican ly g ea e han his in he u u e; he e o e, he policies can
be implemen ed only wi h su icien coope a ion om he coas al
coun ies. This esul alida es he cu en SASEC policy o "con inued
g ow h o he en i e egion h ough in a- egional coope a ion." Ano he
esul p o ides a new pe spec i e ha u u e logis ics policy in he
SASEC egion should ocus mo e on connec ions wi h China and ASEAN
o he eas . This s udy will be a p o o ype o s udying he e ec s o
logis ics policies in inland egions wi h unique cha ac e is ics simila o
hose o he SASEC egion, such as Cambodia, Cen al Asia, and A ica.
Al hough he objec i es o his s udy ha e been la gely achie ed,
some issues s ill need o be discussed: Fi s , he ag eemen o es ima ed
expo ca go h oughpu s a he po s o Hazi a and Mund a wi h he
obse ed ones was ela i ely low. Al hough his did no ha e a signi i-
can impac on he analysis because he analysis was ocused on he a ea
su ounding he Bay o Bengal, i is necessa y o examine he oad and
ail conges ion a JNP and he balance o eme ging po s a ound JNP in
mo e de ail i analyzing he ela ionship be ween Cen al and Sou h Asia
ia Pakis an in he u u e. Conside ing di e en ime cos s and aile
cos s by di e en ca go ypes and he mo emen s o emp y con aine s
Fig. 22. Es ima ed link lows o ca go o igina ing om h ee inland egions in he comp ehensi e policy implemen a ion scena io. (F om op o bo om: ca go
o igina ing om no heas India, Bhu an, and Nepal, espec i ely; F om le o igh : no policy implemen a ion, co ido de elopmen +bo de ba ie coe icien a
0.4, co ido de elopmen +bo de ba ie coe icien a 0.1, espec i ely).
K. Kawachi and R. Shibasaki
The Asian Jou nal o Shipping and Logis ics 40 (2024) 61–81
81
would also imp o e he model’s p ecision and applicabili y. Second, we
need o conside new line se ices o call a he SASEC po s. Since he
ma i ime shipping ne wo k is gi en in he GLINS model, i s change is no
conside ed in his s udy excep o he ship size inc ease and he e-
s ic ion on po calls o i e po s. Fu u e analysis should conside he
inc ease in line se ices as coun ies’ economic g ow h and change in
he shipping ne wo k, including he de elopmen o new hub po s,
which a e planned in each coun y, as examined by Shibasaki & Ka-
wasaki (2019). Thi d, a de ailed s udy is necessa y o p edic he u u e
ca go shipping demand. This s udy used he u u e ca go shipping de-
mand, which was es ima ed based on he o ecas s by he GTAS Fo e-
cas ing Da abase. The GTAP and o he in e na ional economic models
can be inco po a ed o de ailed s udies ha can conside a ious ac o s
such as changes in popula ion, labo o ce, echnology le els, a i s, and
anspo cos s. Las ly, he e is a need o e alua e u he p ojec s ha
could be de eloped in he u u e, such as o e land anspo h ough
Nepal as a ou e om China o India.
Decla a ion o Compe ing In e es
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial
in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence
he wo k epo ed in his pape .
Acknowledgemen
This esea ch was unded by JSPS KAKENHI, g an numbe
20H00286.
Appendix A. Suppo ing in o ma ion
Supplemen a y da a associa ed wi h his a icle can be ound in he
online e sion a doi:10.1016/j.ajsl.2024.01.003.
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