Ukraine during the Russian war of aggression: The nexus between internal developments and EU accession

S ewa , Susan
Resea ch Repo
Uk aine du ing he Russian wa o agg ession: The nexus
be ween in e nal de elopmen s and EU accession
SWP Resea ch Pape , No. 13/2024
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: S ewa , Susan (2024) : Uk aine du ing he Russian wa o agg ession: The nexus
be ween in e nal de elopmen s and EU accession, SWP Resea ch Pape , No. 13/2024, S i ung
Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2024RP13
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/302553
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SWP Resea ch Pape
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik
Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s
Susan S ewa
Uk aine du ing he
Russian Wa o Agg ession
The Nexus be ween In e nal De elopmen s
and EU Accession
SWP Resea ch Pape 13
Sep embe 2024, Be lin
Abs ac
∎ The Russian wa o agg ession has deepened ela ions be ween he EU and
Uk aine. This can be seen, abo e all, in Uk aine’s EU candida e s a us.
∎ Despi e he wa , Uk aine con inues o pu sue many e o ms, e en i hei
pace has slowed since Feb ua y 2022.
∎ The s ong concen a ion o powe in he O ice o he P esiden nega i ely
a ec s he sepa a ion o powe s. I makes judicial e o ms mo e di icul
and hinde s pa liamen ’s abili y o exe cise i s unc ions.
∎ The wa has weakened he powe o oliga chs in Uk aine in many espec s.
Ye he o m o go e nance in he coun y has no expe ienced a clea
b eak om he pas .
∎ E en du ing he in asion, he au ho i ies a e con inuing hei igh
agains co up ion among he eli e. The popula ion pe cei es some p o-
g ess, bu high-le el co up ion emains a deep- oo ed challenge.
∎ Ci il socie y ac i i ies ha e changed bo h quali a i ely and quan i a i ely
as a esul o he wa and ha e become mo e signi ican since he in a-
sion. Ci il socie y engagemen can be os e ed wi h he help o e u ning
Uk ainian mig an s and h ough he in ol emen o Uk ainians ab oad.
∎ Uk aine’s municipali ies will play a key ole in econs uc ion, o a e doing
so al eady. To ensu e ha econs uc ion is success ul in all i s dimensions,
municipali ies should con inuously be in ol ed in he mechanisms and
p ocesses cu en ly being de eloped.
∎ In o de o meaning ully in ensi y Uk aine-EU ela ions, i is essen ial ha
ule o law be expanded and consolida ed, no only in Uk aine, bu also
in he EU and i s membe s a es.
SWP Resea ch Pape
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik
Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s
Susan S ewa
Uk aine du ing he
Russian Wa o Agg ession
The Nexus be ween In e nal De elopmen s and EU Accession
SWP Resea ch Pape 13
Sep embe 2024, Be lin
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o In e na ional
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ISSN (P in ) 2747-5123
ISSN (Online) 1863-1053
DOI: 10.18449/2024RP13
(Upda ed English e sion o
SWP-S udie 16/2024)

Table o Con en s
5 Issues and Conclusions
7 EU-Uk aine Rela ions in he Run-up o he
Russian In asion
10 Re o ms du ing Wa ime
10 Assessmen s by he Eu opean Commission
12 Assessmen s by he Uk ainian go e nmen
14 Assessmen s om Uk ainian ci il socie y
17 The E olu ion o Uk ainian Go e nance since 2022
17 Sepa a ion o powe s
20 Deoliga chisa ion
22 Comba ing co up ion
24 Ci il Socie y De elopmen du ing he Wa
27 The Uk ainian App oach o Recons uc ion
33 Conclusion and Recommenda ions
35 Abb e ia ions
D Susan S ewa is a Senio Fellow in he Eas e n Eu ope and
Eu asia Di ision a SWP.
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
5
Issues and Conclusions
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o
Agg ession: The Nexus be ween In e nal
De elopmen s and EU Accession
In June 2022, he Eu opean Council g an ed Uk aine
he s a us o a candida e coun y, hus b inging i
poli ically close o joining he Eu opean Union (EU)
han e e be o e.
This de elopmen was made possible hanks o
Uk ainians’ cou ageous and de e mined esponses
o Russian agg ession since 24 Feb ua y 2022. Indeed,
e en scep ics wi hin he EU we e con inced o ake
his s ep a e obse ing Uk aine’s empha ic de ence
o he alues o eedom, so e eign y and e i o ial
in eg i y.
In Decembe 2023, he Eu opean Council decided
o begin he p ocess o opening accession nego ia ions
wi h Kyi . The so-called sc eening p ocess s a ed in
he end o Janua y 2024 and included composing a
lis o laws ha need o be ha monised wi h exis ing
EU legisla ion and egula ions p io o accession. In
Ma ch, he Eu opean Commission p oposed a nego-
ia ing amewo k, and in June, nego ia ions wi h
Uk aine (and Moldo a) we e o icially opened.
In ligh o he ongoing accession p ocess on he
one hand and he con inuing wa on he o he , he
ques ion a ises: Which condi ions a e in place in
Uk aine ha a e ele an o i s EU accession and how
ha e hese condi ions e ol ed o e he cou se o mo e
han wo yea s o wa ? This analysis aims o answe
ha ques ion, i s ly by explo ing no only he coun-
y’s capaci y o e o m du ing he wa bu also he
conc e e p og ess made o e he las wo yea s.
Secondly, i goes on o in es iga e he conside able
changes ha ha e occu ed in Uk aine h oughou
he wa . Uk aine’s poli ical sphe e and (ci il) socie y
ha e had o adap o he needs esul ing om a la ge-
scale in asion. Quan i a i ely, esou ces o en lowed
o wa e o s ins ead o o e o ms, while a se ies o
quali a i e changes also a ec ed he landscape. Such
shi s need o be aken in o accoun when i comes
o Uk aine’s po en ial EU accession and EU-Uk aine
ela ions as a whole.
Thi dly, bo h Uk aine and he EU see Uk ainian
econs uc ion as closely linked o he p ocess o EU
accession. Uk ainian ac o s’ iews on econs uc ion
will be decisi e in cha ing he coun y’s pa h owa ds
Issues and Conclusions
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
6
accession. How hey o ganise he eco e y ins i u ion-
ally and ope a ionally will shape he nexus be ween
EU accession and econs uc ion as well as he cha -
ac e and pace o bo h p ocesses. Wi h ha in mind,
his analysis explo es how Uk aine is posi ioning
i sel o econs uc ion, which p ac ical ac i i ies
a e al eady unde way and wha consequences hese
ac i i ies will ha e on accession. Pa icula ocus
will be placed on he municipal le el.
The ques ions in es iga ed he e a e in e ela ed
and o m a complex pic u e. Fi s , i is clea ha
e o ms a e con inuing success ully e en in imes
o wa . While he pace has slowed, p og ess owa ds
e o m has p o en possible and should he e o e
be suppo ed as he coun y cha s i s pa h o EU
accession. In his ega d, assis ance will be indispen-
sable, especially, as Uk ainian ac o s hemsel es
eadily admi , wi h espec o adminis a i e capac-
i ies and nego ia ing expe ise. This ings all he mo e
ue amid unce ain y abou he implemen a ion o
he EU’s new enla gemen me hodology.
Second, he wa has no b ough abou a majo
shi in he mode o go e nance employed by Uk ain-
ian eli es. I is ce ainly ue ha a g ea e deg ee
o cen alisa ion o decision-making is o be expec ed
and is indeed necessa y in wa ime, bu in he Uk ain-
ian con ex , his phenomenon has become disp opo -
iona ely p oblema ic. Ne wo ks and s uc u es ha
could o m he basis o a new pos -wa oliga chy
a e being c ea ed o ine- uned. This could hinde
achie emen o he equi ed ipping poin s o key
e o ms, pa icula ly in he a ea o ule o law.
Thi dly, he wa has changed (ci il) socie y. E en
compa ed o he pos -2014 pe iod, he numbe o
people in ol ed in a ious ci il socie y ac i i ies has
inc eased, and so ha e he a eas in which hey a e
ac i e. Ne e heless, he po ion o ci il socie y’s
esou ces de o ed o suppo ing e o ms and moni-
o ing hei implemen a ion has dec eased as ac i -
i ies ela ed o he wa ake p ecedence. Mo eo e ,
eme ging socie al aul lines make g ea e a en ion
o social cohesion necessa y. This dynamic si ua ion
o e s he EU new oppo uni ies o coope a ion wi h
Uk ainian ci il socie y while also c ea ing new chal-
lenges.
As a as econs uc ion is conce ned, mo e a en-
ion mus be paid o he ins i u ional a chi ec u e a
he communi y le el. Municipali ies a e de eloping
di e en models o econs uc ion; while some ocus
mainly on e ical connec ions, o he s emphasise
ho izon al ones. Thei coope a ion wi h Uk ainian
and in e na ional unde s also a ies. One o he
ongoing objec i es o econs uc ion should be o con-
sis en ly ensu e and deepen he meaning ul in ol e-
men o local ac o s, whe he au ho i ies, ci il socie y
o en ep eneu s. A he same ime, municipal s uc-
u es should be s eng hened, e.g. by con inuing he
decen alisa ion e o m, which has so a been e y
success ul, bu emains incomple e. The link be ween
e o ms and econs uc ion becomes clea e in his
con ex , and he obs acles ha p e en ipping poin s
in e o m p ocesses om being eached become all
he mo e signi ican . Impedimen s o u he decen-
alisa ion need o be emo ed so ha local ac o s can
play he mos e ec i e ole possible in ebuilding he
coun y.
Assessmen s by he Uk ainian go e nmen
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
13
poin scale whe eby “ea ly s age” co esponds o he
lowes ca ego y (1 poin ) and “well ad anced” o
he highes (5 poin s). Seeing ha Uk aine a e ages
a ound wo poin s (“some le el o p epa a ion”), his
oughly co esponds o a ound 40 pe cen p epa ed-
ness o accession.
31
I mus be no ed, howe e , ha
he Eu opean Commission’s p og ess epo e alua es
Uk aine’s pe o mance in ela ion o he en i e acquis,
no jus he Associa ion Ag eemen and DCFTA.
Un ealis ic expec a ions in Uk aine
ega ding he speed o EU accession
need o be empe ed.
O e all, Uk aine’s assessmen s (bo h e bal and
w i en) end o be mo e posi i e han hose o he
Commission. One eason o his may be ha Kyi
wan s o p esen i s e o ms in he bes possible ligh .
I may also be due o he ac ha he Uk ainian go -
e nmen is mo e immedia ely awa e o he p og ess
ha i is making. Howe e , i hese di e ences o
opinion con inue o e he upcoming yea s, p oblems
could a ise. Fi s ly, he Uk ainian popula ion is mo e
likely o be awa e o Uk ainian epo s han o hose
coming om he Commission. As a esul , Uk ainians
may ha e exagge a ed expec a ions ega ding EU-
Uk aine con e gence and he accession imeline.
Indeed, he Uk ainian go e nmen has uelled hese
un ealis ic expec a ions. Fo example, P ime Minis e
Denys Shmyhal issued a s a emen in 2022, announc-
ing ha Uk aine would be able o ul il all obliga ions
necessa y o accession wi hin jus wo yea s.
32
Sec-
ondly, he Uk ainian go e nmen will be much mo e
con inced ha Uk aine is eady o accession han
he Eu opean Commission, pa icula ly when i
comes o he implemen a ion o he Associa ion Ag ee-
men . This may c ea e ension in he u u e. I is clea
ha , om he pe spec i e o he EU and i s membe
s a es, he Commission’s epo s ca y much mo e
weigh han hose o he Uk ainian go e nmen .
The e o e, in o de o a oid unpleasan su p ises, i
31
See DG NEAR, Uk aine Repo 2023 (see oo no e 22).
32
Suzanne Lynch, “Uk aine Wan s o Join EU wi hin
Two Yea s, PM Says”, Poli ico, 30 Janua y 2023, h ps://www.
poli ico.eu/a icle/uk aine-eu-membe ship- wo-yea s-p ime-
minis e -denys-shmyhal/. This was la e epea ed by he
Depu y P ime Minis e o Eu o-A lan ic In eg a ion Olha
S e anishyna. Lisa O’Ca oll, “Uk aine Doesn’ Wan Sym-
pa hy Vo e on Joining EU, Says Depu y PM”, The Gua dian,
6 No embe 2023, h ps://www. hegua dian.com/wo ld/2023/
no /06/uk aine-joining-eu- e o ms.
would be wise o he Uk ainian side o e lec on
he easons o any disc epancies be ween he wo
assessmen s and o adap i s own app oach i neces-
sa y. Shi ing ocus om he Associa ion Ag eemen
o achie emen s wi hin he acquis o e all o e s an
oppo uni y o mo e consis en messaging.
The epo s issued by he Uk ainian go e nmen
make i clea ha Uk aine has no only achie ed a
g ea deal in e ms o con e ging wi h he EU o e
he yea s, bu also ha he implemen a ion o he
Ag eemen is now being analysed and e alua ed mo e
sys ema ically. Fo example, epo ing on e o m p o-
g ess has con inued ac oss se e al p esiden s and
go e nmen s, and a mechanism has been de eloped
whe eby ele an Uk ainian minis ies ha e been
able o egula ly p o ide compa able in o ma ion on
he s a us o hei espec i e e o m a eas. None o
his should be aken o g an ed in he Uk ainian po-
li ical con ex . Such epo ing began a a ime when
he Associa ion Ag eemen had no e en en e ed in o
o ce, meaning ha Uk aine assumed esponsibili y
o epo ing in ad ance and o i s own acco d. The
same applies o he accession p ocess, whe eby he
Uk ainian go e nmen ca ied ou a kind o sel -
sc eening be o e he Eu opean Council e en decided
o open accession nego ia ions. In ha ins ance, he
Uk ainian go e nmen e alua ed i s p og ess in all
a eas o he acquis and speci ied a eas whe e wo k
was s ill needed.
33
This p o ided a help ul basis o
he opening o nego ia ions wi h he EU in June 2024.
In he Commission epo s on he implemen a ion
o he Associa ion Ag eemen in ecen yea s, i is
s iking ha Uk aine a es i s pe o mance in he a ea
o “jus ice, eedom, secu i y and human igh s” pa -
icula ly high (92 pe cen implemen ed in 2023).
These ca ego ies include many o he essen ials
needed o es ablish he undamen als o ule o law,
and comp ise one pa o he i s clus e o issues
being add essed du ing accession nego ia ions since
2020. To be p ecise, his clus e includes judicial
e o m, unc ioning democ a ic ins i u ions, e o m
o public adminis a ion and secu i y s uc u es,
espec o human igh s, and so o h. I is exac ly
in hese and ela ed a eas ha he EU has epea edly
no ed Uk aine’s conside able de ici s and sluggish
pace in emedying hem due o he exis ence o powe -
ul es ed in e es s. These a eas a e impo an , no
33
Repo on he Ini ial Assessmen o he P og ess in he Implemen-
a ion o he Eu opean Union Legal Ac s (EU Acquis), h ps://www.
kmu.go .ua/s o age/app/si es/1/55-GOEEI/z i _EN.pd .

Re o ms du ing Wa ime
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
14
jus in and o hemsel es, bu because hey can con-
s i u e he ounda ions o decisi e e o m in o he
sphe es. Wi h his in mind, he easons behind he
signi ican di e ences be ween Uk aine’s sel -assess-
men and he EU’s e alua ions will need o be
cla i ied.
In addi ion o i s egula epo ing, he Uk ainian
go e nmen has endea ou ed o make i s ac ions
and p og ess accessible o he Uk ainian public on a
websi e en i led “The pulse o he Ag eemen ” [Pul’s
uhody].
34
He e, one can easily ollow he p og ess
made in a ious a eas a a glance. E en hough pa s
o he websi e ha e no been main ained in ecen
yea s, i emains a use ul sou ce o in o ma ion.
35
Be o e Russia in aded in Feb ua y 2022, he Uk ain-
ian go e nmen also planned o se up Eu opean
in eg a ion o ices in se e al egions ac oss he coun-
y, hus indica ing i s desi e o in o m b oade seg-
men s o he popula ion abou EU-Uk aine ela ions
in gene al and he Associa ion Ag eemen in pa -
icula .
36
Assessmen s om Uk ainian ci il socie y
Uk ainian ci il socie y e o s o e alua e he imple-
men a ion o he Associa ion Ag eemen also dese e
a en ion. Thei wo k p o ides a coun e poin o ha
o he Uk ainian go e nmen and can help o pin-
poin p oblema ic a eas o con i m ha ce ain
sphe es ha e been adequa ely add essed om an
expe pe spec i e. In his ega d, wo ypes o assess-
men s in ecen mon hs and yea s a e pa icula ly
no ewo hy, namely hose ound in he wo k led by
he New Eu ope Cen e (NEC) on he se en ecom-
menda ions o he Eu opean Commission and ha
conduc ed by he Uk ainian Cen e o Eu opean
Policy (UCEP) on he implemen a ion o he Ag ee-
men as a whole.
37
34
See h ps://pulse.kmu.go .ua/.
35
As o ea ly June 2024, documen s on he websi e had
no been upda ed, and since 2020 nei he had he in o ma-
ion on implemen a ion by ac o (cabine o minis e s, pa -
liamen , o he bodies). Howe e , o he a eas we e up- o-da e.
36
Repo on Implemen a ion o he Associa ion Ag eemen be ween
Uk aine and he Eu opean Union in 2019. Resul s and Plans, 5,
h ps:// www.kmu.go .ua/s o age/app/si es/1/z i i-p o- iko
nannya/aa-implemen a ion-2019-4-eng.pd .
37
My special hanks go o Lyubo Akulenko, he di ec o
o UCEP, o he insigh s in o Uk aine’s p og ess on he Asso-
The NEC is a Uk ainian hink ank ha has pub-
lished nume ous analyses on he opic o EU in e-
g a ion and NATO-Uk aine ela ions. I can ely on
well-es ablished ne wo ks wi hin go e nmen ci cles
and Wes e n coun ies and o en o ganises e en s and
discussions. O pa icula in e es he e is he so-called
Candida e Check, an assessmen o he implemen a-
ion o he s eps owa ds accession ecommended by
he Eu opean Commission in June 2022. Since ha
ime, he NEC has e alua ed Uk aine’s implemen a-
ion o he measu es i e imes, no ing signi ican
p og ess.
Du ing he i s Candida e Check in Augus 2022,
he NEC issued only 4.4 ou o a possible 10.0 poin s,
while he i h Check in Sep embe 2023 saw his
sco e ise o 8.1 poin s.
38
Wi hin his assessmen ,
e en he equi ed e o m o he Cons i u ional Cou ,
which he NEC had p e iously labelled a ailu e,
ecei ed 6.0 poin s. O he e o ms also ecei ed high
a ings, wi h hose in he a eas o jus ice, an i-co up-
ion, media and na ional mino i ies ecei ing be ween
8.0 and 10.0 poin s. Only he e o m in he igh
agains money launde ing al e ed, a 6.0 poin s. The
NEC elies on he opinions o expe s in making hese
de e mina ions.
None heless, he NEC does no assess deoliga chi-
sa ion, which is add essed in one o he se en EU ec-
ommenda ions. The eason o his is he EU’s demand
ha he ecommenda ions o he Eu opean Commis-
sion o Democ acy h ough Law (a Council o Eu ope
ins i u ion commonly known as he Venice Commis-
sion) be aken in o accoun when e ising Uk aine’s
so-called an i-oliga ch law. These ecommenda ions
we e no published un il June 2023 and hey call o
he law o be abandoned in i s cu en o m in a ou
o a sys ema ic app oach ha would equi e a num-
be o changes in a ious a eas, including le elling
he economic playing ield. Because hese measu es
go a beyond he Commission’s o iginal eques
and canno be in oduced in he sho e m, he NEC
excludes deoliga chisa ion in i s assessmen s and
calls on he Eu opean Commission o do he same.
39
cia ion Ag eemen /DCFTA, as well as on he c i e ia o
UCEP’s assessmen .
38
Candida e Check-5: Whe e Uk aine is in he implemen a ion o 7
EU ecommenda ions (Kyi : New Eu ope Cen e , 27 Sep embe
2023), h p://neweu ope.o g.ua/en/analy ics/kandyda -check-
5-de-uk ayina-pe ebu aye-u- ykonanni-7- ekomenda sij-yes/.
39
In i s No embe 2023 epo (see no e 22) he Eu opean
Commission posi i ely assessed Uk aine’s p og ess wi h
espec o he se en s eps. Fou addi ional s eps, which we e
Assessmen s om Uk ainian ci il socie y
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
15
The Uk ainian Cen e o Eu opean Policy (UCEP)
goes beyond analysing he Commission’s ecom-
mended se en s eps. I was ounded in 2015 “ o p o-
mo e e o ms in Uk aine o sus ainable economic
g ow h and o build an open socie y in pa ne ship
wi h ins i u ions a all le els”.
40
UCEP con inuously
wo ks on ques ions o implemen a ion o he Asso-
cia ion Ag eemen , and in May 2023, a eam o UCEP
au ho s published a leng hy epo on Uk aine’s in e-
g a ion in o he EU unde wa ime ci cums ances.
41
The epo ocussed on ce ain sec o s ha a e o
c i ical impo ance in wa ime and o conside able
ele ance o Uk aine’s in eg a ion in o he EU. These
a e: i s ly, he ule o law, pa icula ly e o m o he
judicial sys em, and secondly, ade. Because o he
wa , ade wi h neighbou ing coun ies wi hin he
EU (including Romania and Bulga ia) has become pa -
icula ly impo an . The epo pa icula ly excels in
wo a eas. Fi s , i se s ealis ic p io i ies ha can be
ackled immedia ely wi hin he almos unmanage-
able acquis communau ai e. Secondly, i combines wo
objec i es, namely he needs esul ing om he wa
and app ochemen wi h he EU. Thus, he analysis
(and he wo k o UCEP as a whole) is an essen ial
complemen o he assessmen s o he Eu opean
Commission and he Uk ainian go e nmen .
Wi h he suppo o he Kon ad Adenaue Founda-
ion, UCEP has also published an analysis explaining,
in e alia, i s esea ch me hods.
42
The me hodology
used akes in o accoun no only he o mal adop ion
o he acquis wi hin Uk ainian legisla ion ( ansposi-
ion), bu also i s implemen a ion in p ac ice. Fi s ly,
i examines he ex en o which he ele an au ho -
i ies ha e he ins i u ional, inancial and human
esou ces o en o ce he new egula ions. Secondly,
i conside s op ions o moni o ing, sanc ions and
lexibili y, in case i should be necessa y o modi y
any gi en policy. Seeing ha implemen a ion o laws
in Uk aine is o en inadequa e, he analysis’s sepa-
a ion o hese wo s eps lends c edence o i s con-
subsequen ly speci ied, a e also conside ed o ha e been
la gely implemen ed.
40
See UCEP’s websi e, h ps://ucep.o g.ua/en.
41
A Realis ic Pa h owa ds Uk aine’s Accession o he EU (Kyi :
Uk ainian Cen e o Eu opean Policy [UCEP], June 2023),
h ps://ucep.o g.ua/en/doslidzhennya/a- ealis ic-pa h- owa ds-
uk aines-accession- o- he-eu.h ml.
42
Uk aine and he Associa ion Ag eemen . Implemen a ion Moni-
o ing 2014–2022 (Kyi : UCEP, 2023), h ps://ucep.o g.ua/en/
doslidzhennya/uk aine-and- he-associa ion-ag eemen -
implemen a ion-moni o ing-2014-2022.h ml.
clusions. This app oach p o ides one explana ion o
he di e ences be ween he assessmen s o UCEP
and he Uk ainian go e nmen , as he la e does no
explici ly make his dis inc ion.
UCEP’s app oach is also con incing in he sense
ha i no only a gues o he in oduc ion o new
laws and egula ions, bu also calls o he cancella-
ion o p e ious documen s ha a e s ill in o ce
despi e con adic ing he acquis. O he assessmen s o
he implemen a ion o he Associa ion Ag eemen do
no add ess his issue, which, i le unchecked, uns
he isk o c ea ing a jumble o con adic o y legal
ex s ha will become inc easingly unwieldy o e
ime. This also gene a es oppo uni ies o s akehold-
e s wishing o challenge he implemen a ion o pa
o he acquis, as hey can ely on olde laws ha a e
no in line wi h he acquis bu a e s ill in o ce.
UCEP’s epo on Uk aine’s in eg a ion in o he
EU du ing wa ime co e s he implemen a ion o he
Associa ion Ag eemen , including he DCFTA, du ing
he second hal o 2021 and he whole o 2022, hus
allowing pa o he pe iod du ing he ull-scale Rus-
sian in asion o be compa ed wi h he one immedi-
a ely p io . The au ho s no e ha Uk aine had im-
plemen ed 55 pe cen o he ele an pa s o he
ag eemen as o 2022, six pe cen age poin s mo e
han a he s a o e alua ion pe iod.
The wa has slowed he e o ms, bu
no b ough hem o a s ands ill.
Kyi con inues o d i e hem o wa d.
Acco ding o he same epo , he wa had wo
e ec s on he e o ms associa ed wi h he Ag eemen .
Fi s ly, hei pace slowed because mos esou ces had
o be channelled in o asks ela ed o he wa . Sec-
ondly, due o he des uc ion caused by he wa , he
al eady achie ed changes equi ed by he Ag eemen
( o example in in as uc u e) could only be main-
ained, a bes . P og ess du ing he i s yea o he
wa was ha dly possible, in pa due o he loss o
pe sonnel, some o whom wen ab oad and some o
whom joined he a med o ces. In addi ion, key con-
ol unc ions ( o example, wi h ega d o public
p ocu emen and s a e subsidies) we e elimina ed,
and o e all anspa ency diminished in many a eas.
In addi ion, acco ding o he au ho s, poli ical will
o comple e key e o ms in impo an a eas such as
decen alisa ion, an i-co up ion, jus ice, law en o ce-
men and he ci il se ice was al eady lacking be o e
he wa . Ne e heless, a numbe o laws we e passed
Re o ms du ing Wa ime
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in 2022 ha a e c ucial o he implemen a ion o he
Ag eemen . Howe e , his means ha he lis o sec-
onda y legisla ion documen s equi ed o p ac ical
implemen a ion has g own conside ably longe .
The Uk ainian non-go e nmen al o ganisa ion
Vox Uk aine con i ms he di icul ies acing e o m
in Uk aine in imes o wa . I egula ly publishes a
e o m index ha clea ly shows luc ua ions in he
pace o e o m. Since he s a o he Russian in asion
in Feb ua y 2022, on a e age, he speed o e o ms
has allen sha ply. Measu ing he pace o e o m
on a scale o -5.0 o +5.0, wi h 0.0 ep esen ing s ag-
na ion, Vox Uk aine has no assessed he pace o
e o ms as g ea e han +1.5, while speci ying +2.0
as he minimum accep able empo.
43
Howe e , amid
ongoing and in ense wa a e, i is su p ising ha
wo k on he implemen a ion o he Ag eemen has
no been comple ely suspended; on he con a y, i is
clea ly con inuing o be pu sued in many a eas. This
speaks o bo h he abili y o he Uk ainian bu eauc acy
o unc ion du ing a majo wa and he high p io i y
Kyi assigns o i s ela ions wi h he EU.
Taken oge he , he abo e epo s poin o a num-
be o de elopmen s. Fi s , e o m e o s in Uk aine
a e p og essing despi e he wa , e en i , second,
he pace o e o m has ine i ably slowed as a esul .
Thi d, p og ess is p ima ily achie ed when he e is a
limi ed lis o p ecise expec a ions ha can be me in
he sho e m. Fou h, he ule o law emains one
o he mos di icul a eas o achie e success ul and
comple e e o ms. Fi h, and mos impo an , is he
ealisa ion ha e en in he cu en si ua ion i is pos-
sible o he EU and Uk aine o mo e o wa d wi h
he exis ing componen s o hei ela ionship, i.e. o
ackle e o ms in he con ex o wo king owa ds
Uk aine’s accession o he EU.
F om his pe spec i e, he Eu opean Council’s deci-
sion o open accession nego ia ions appea s jus i ied,
and no pu ely o geos a egic easons. Howe e ,
i would be un ealis ic o expec apid p og ess on
e o ms in he coming mon hs. A di ec link be ween
he eme gence o oppo uni ies o s eng hen e o m
and Wes e n backing is e iden in his con ex . The
mo e esolu ely Wes e n s a es and o ganisa ions sup-
po Uk aine mili a ily, he mo e quickly a si ua ion
can a ise in which apid e o ms a e easible. As he
i s mon hs o 2024 clea ly showed, a lack o mili a y
43
See Vox Uk aine, Re o m Index: Pa h o Re o ms, h ps://
oxuk aine.o g/en/ca ego y/imo e-en. This e e s o he pace
o all a eas o e o m aken oge he .
suppo will esul in he Russian a med o ces ad-
ancing u he in o Uk ainian e i o y. Due o he
ola ile and o en un a ou able de elopmen s on
Uk aine’s on line, i has become necessa y o ocus
almos exclusi ely on de ensi e measu es. In addi-
ion, mo ale is de e io a ing in he a med o ces and
socie y a la ge.
44
Bo h de elopmen s c ea e ex emely
di icul condi ions o u he e o m. I he Russian
side achie es addi ional e i o ial gains, his will u -
he complica e he implemen a ion o e o ms on
se e al le els, no leas in a geog aphical sense. In-
c eased mili a y aid is he e o e a con ibu ing ac o
o he success o Uk aine’s e o m agenda.
44
The Uk ainian incu sion in he Ku sk egion o Russia
beginning in Augus 2024 has gi en a boos o mo ale and
shown ha he Uk ainian a med o ces a e capable o suc-
cess ul su p ise ope a ions. Howe e , he medium- and long-
e m implica ions o he incu sion a e di icul o p edic
and, aken by hemsel es, seem unlikely o include a un-
damen al al e a ion o he wa ’s ajec o y.
Sepa a ion o powe s
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17
P io o he Russian in asion in Feb ua y 2022, he
Uk ainian eli e had an ambi alen a i ude owa ds
hei coun y’s app ochemen wi h he Eu opean
Union. On he one hand, many membe s o he poli i-
cal and economic eli e we e in e es ed in u he
deepening ela ions wi h he EU o geopoli ical and
economic easons. On he o he hand, some o he
same people we e o en unwilling o ake ce ain
s eps owa ds e o m ha migh ha e led o a b eak-
h ough in ela ions, because hese s eps would jeop-
a dise hei own pa icula in e es s. This is especially
ue in he a ea o he ule o law and poin s o s uc-
u al ea u es o Uk ainian poli ics. P obably he mos
se ious o hese is a o m o oliga chic go e nance, in
which c onyism, sys emic co up ion, p oblema ic
in e connec ions be ween he poli ical and economic
ealms, and impuni y o illegal beha iou a e p e a-
len .
45
As a esul o he eli es’ ambi alence, he ela ion-
ship be ween he EU and Uk aine was cha ac e ised
by somewha con adic o y de elopmen s. In some
a eas, s eady p og ess was possible. Fo example, a
isa- ee egime o Uk ainian ci izens’ sho ou is
s ays in he EU was success ully implemen ed. A he
same ime, howe e , obs acles we e epea edly en-
coun e ed in o he sphe es, meaning ha no la ge
b eak h oughs we e achie ed.
46
Ins ead, he ocus was
o en placed on de elopmen s wi hin he amewo k
45
See, e.g., John Lough, Uk aine’s Sys em o C ony Capi alism.
The Challenge o Disman ling “Sys ema”, Cha ham House
Resea ch Pape (London: Cha ham House, July 2021), h ps://
www.cha hamhouse.o g/2021/07/uk aines-sys em-c ony-
capi alism.
46
Obs acles and a lack o in e es on he pa o he EU
we e also appa en , bu his is no he subjec o his
analysis. See, e.g., And ew Wilson, “Has Eu ope Fo go en
abou Uk aine?” Eu ozine, 11 Janua y 2016, h ps://www.
eu ozine.com/has-eu ope- o go en-abou -uk aine/.
o he Minsk ag eemen s and a emp s o pu an end
o he wa in he Donbas.
47
Since he beginning o he ull-scale in asion, a
comple ely new si ua ion has eme ged. Uk ainian
eli es ha e had o adap o he domes ic and o eign
policy pa ame e s imposed by he wa . Howe e ,
he e is li le e idence ha he wa has led o a sys-
emic change in Uk ainian poli ics o economic a -
ai s. O e all, he pic u e is mixed. On he one hand,
ce ain dis u bing de elopmen s a e being uelled
by he wa . On he o he hand, e o s o implemen
u he e o ms ha ackle key issues a e p og essing
despi e he wa . None heless, he main elemen s o
he Uk ainian mode o go e nance which we e p ob-
lema ic e en be o e he wa (no only unde cu en
Uk ainian P esiden Volodymy Zelensky) pe sis ,
and hey con inue o p e en sys emic change om
occu ing.
Sepa a ion o powe s
As occu s in many o he coun ies a wa , powe has
become mo e cen alised in Uk aine. The ole o he
p esiden and his closes associa es has become almos
omnip esen . I should be ecognised he e ha p esi-
den s ha e ypically s i en o e e mo e powe and
au ho i y in Uk aine. E en i he coun y is a “pa lia-
men a y-p esiden ial epublic” acco ding o he con-
s i u ion, and he impo ance o he pa liamen is
undeniable, Uk ainian poli ics usually emphasises
he “p esiden ial” o e he “pa liamen a y”. Because
wa gene ally equi es unusual and especially apid
decisions, cen alisa ion ocussing on he p esiden
can cu en ly be seen as una oidable.
47
See Fische , The Donbas Con lic (see no e 3). The so-called
No mandy Fo ma , in which nego ia ions on he si ua ion in
he Donbas epea edly ook place, consis ed o Ge many,
F ance, Uk aine, and Russia, bu no he EU.
The E olu ion o Uk ainian
Go e nance since 2022
The E olu ion o Uk ainian Go e nance since 2022
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
18
Ne e heless, i is clea ha he p esiden and his
eam ha e become accus omed o hei addi ional
powe s and ha his will ha e consequences beyond
he wa (e en i a new p esiden is elec ed). Alongside
he ypical endency o Uk ainian p esiden s o
a emp o inc ease hei powe , a shi in he balance
o powe in poli ics and socie y is occu ing. The ole
o s a e ins i u ions ou side he p esidency has also
changed as a esul o he wa . The pa liamen ( he
Ve kho na Rada) has become weake and less isible
since he Russian in asion. I is imp essi e and com-
mendable ha he Rada con inues o unc ion and
o pass nume ous legisla i e ac s necessa y o he
conduc o he wa and o EU in eg a ion in he cu -
en challenging con ex . Howe e , a numbe o
de elopmen s ha e se e ely limi ed i s ole.
Fo example, pa liamen a y sessions may no longe
be publicly b oadcas o secu i y easons.
48
This has
educed anspa ency in he legisla u e. In addi ion,
he composi ion o he Rada has changed.
49
Some pa -
ies ca ego ised as p o-Russian we e banned.
50
While
his did no esul in elec ed ep esen a i es om
hese pa ies being s ipped o hei manda es, i did
mean ha hey had o eo ien hemsel es. Some le
he Rada o hei own acco d o unde p essu e, while
o he s swi ched o he p o-p esiden ial camp. O en
hose who le could no be eplaced, as i is no pos-
sible o hold elec ions unde ma ial law.
51
The oppo-
48
A majo i y o Uk ainians a e now in a ou o ein o-
ducing public b oadcas s o pa liamen a y sessions. S anisla
Poho ilo , “Majo i y o Uk ainians Wan Pa liamen a y Ses-
sion B oadcas s o Re u n”, Uk ainska P a da, 8 Janua y 2024,
h ps://www.p a da.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/8/7436299/.
49
O 450 membe s o he Rada, only 401 a e s ill o icially
in o ice oday. See “S a ys ychni dani” [S a is ical da a], 1
Feb ua y 2024, h ps:// kad y. ada.go .ua/news/dijalnis /
kad _zab_dep/72929.h ml. The emp y sea s ei he could no
be illed in 2019 because Russia had occupied he ep e-
sen a i es’ cons i uen e i o ies o he co esponding MPs
le wi hou a eplacemen o a ious easons du ing he
ull-scale wa since 2022. See “Decline o MPs du ing he
Wa : Why is he Numbe o MPs Dec easing?” Agency o Legis-
la i e Ini ia i es, 23 Oc obe 2023, h ps://pa lamen .o g.ua/en/
analy ics/decline-o -mps-du ing- he-wa -why-is- he-numbe -
o -mps-dec easing/.
50
“Zelenskiy Signs Law Banning P o-Russian Poli ical Pa -
ies in Uk aine”, Radio F ee Eu ope/Radio Libe y, 14 May 2022,
h ps://www. e l.o g/a/uk aine-law-bans-p o- ussia-pa ies-
zelenskiy-signs/31849737.h ml.
51
Uk aine has a mixed elec o al sys em, acco ding o
which hal o he pa liamen is elec ed by pa y lis s and
he o he hal in indi idual cons i uencies. Rep esen a i es
si ion is he e o e in a comple ely di e en si ua ion
han be o e he wa , no o men ion he ac ha
much o he opposi ion suppo s he go e nmen
on mos issues ou o solida i y, o a leas does no
openly c i icise i , e en i his has begun o change
a e o e wo yea s o igh ing.
No only he Rada, bu also he judicia y has
unde gone signi ican changes due o he wa . How-
e e , e en be o e Feb ua y 2022, he judicia y did no
ac independen ly in many espec s. Impo an seg-
men s o he judicial appa a us we e de ac o unde
he (in o mal) con ol o he p esiden . This domi-
nance o he execu i e o e he judicia y has a long
adi ion in Uk aine and is he e o e no solely a
p oblem o Zelensky’s p esidency.
52
S ill, as a esul
o he wa , his dependence has inc eased a he han
dec eased, e en hough some aspec s o judicial
e o m ha e con inued. The s ong ole o he p esi-
den and his eam hus ex ends o ela ions wi h he
cou s and secu es hei in luence he e.
Because he judicia y lacks independence, judicial
e o m is one o he EU’s p io i ies. This is e iden
om he se en ecommenda ions o he Eu opean
Commission published in June 2022, which Uk aine
had o ake in o accoun be o e accession nego ia ions
could be opened. This ongoing ocus on judicial e o m,
oge he wi h he de e mina ion o some Uk ainian
ac o s o conduc such e o ms, has led o a ious
s eps being aken o s eng hen o es o e he unc-
ioning o he jus ice sec o . This means, among o he
hings, ha he jus ice sec o is in a ansi ional phase
and is he e o e no ully unc ional.
53
I s dependence
on he execu i e in combina ion wi h he ongoing
e o m means ha in pa icula he highes cou s
and judicial bodies a e s uggling o adequa ely ul il
hei asks. This holds especially ue o he Cons i-
u ional Cou and he Sup eme Cou .
elec ed by lis can be eplaced by ano he candida e on he
lis , e en in imes o wa . Howe e , di ec ly elec ed ep e-
sen a i es may no be eplaced, as his would equi e a new
elec ion.
52
See Ma ia Popo a and Daniel J. Bee s, “No Re olu ion
o Digni y o Uk aine’s Judges: Judicial Re o m a e he
Eu omaidan”, Demok a iza siya: The Jou nal o Pos -So ie Democ-
a isa ion 28, no. 1 (2020): 113–42, h ps://muse.jhu.edu/
a icle/747827.
53
Oleg Sukho , “Judicial Re o m in Limbo as only Few
Tain ed Judges A e Fi ed o Con ic ed”, The Kyi Independen ,
27 No embe 2023, h ps://kyi independen .com/judicial-
e o m-in-limbo-as-only- ew- ain ed-judges-a e- i ed-o -
con ic ed/.

Sepa a ion o powe s
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19
In 2020, he Cons i u ional Cou decla ed a num-
be o an i-co up ion laws uncons i u ional, mos
no ably he law on asse decla a ions, which many
ci il se an s we e equi ed o submi .
54
The p esiden
o he Cons i u ional Cou a he ime, Oleksand
Tupy sky, who had a pe sonal in e es in his deci-
sion, was emo ed om o ice by Zelensky. This
igge ed a cons i u ional c isis, which led o a ie ce
deba e abou he p ocedu e o selec ing cou judges.
The p esiden ial o ice a ou ed a solu ion ha ,
acco ding o ci il socie y ep esen a i es, would ha e
gi en he p esiden oo much con ol o e he p o-
cess. A e he Venice Commission and he Eu opean
Commission in e ened, a comp omise was ound
wi hin he amewo k o he se en ecommenda ions
made by he EU Commission.
55
A he Sup eme Cou , o me Chai man Vse olod
Knyazye is accused o ha ing ecei ed a ound €2.7
million in exchange o issuing a judgemen in a ou
o a Uk ainian businessman. Knyazye is cu en ly
awai ing ial and was eplaced by ano he judge,
S anisla K a chenko, in May 2023. The case also
e ealed ha a leas one o he Sup eme Cou em-
ployee and a Uk ainian lawye s’ associa ion we e
in ol ed in he illici ac i i y.
56
Many con o e sial co up ion cases (including
hose ou side he judicial sec o , o example in he
Minis y o De ence) a e being ackled, o en due o
s ong p essu e exe cised by he public and in es iga-
i e jou nalis s. In Decembe 2022, o example, he
scandal- idden Kyi Dis ic Adminis a i e Cou was
dissol ed by a law p oposed by he p esiden ial o ice
ollowing a pe i ion by ci izens demanding he issue
be add essed. The Cou was esponsible o dealing
wi h cases in ol ing high- anking na ional poli icians
and was known o i s ampan co up ion. Abo e all,
54
And ii Nekoliak, “Analyse: Das uk ainische Ve assungs-
ge ich kipp Teile de An iko up ions e o m in de Uk aine”
(Bonn: Bundeszen ale ü poli ische Bildung, 1 Decembe
2020), h ps://www.bpb.de/ hemen/eu opa/uk aine-analysen/
322114/analyse-das-uk ainische- e assungsge ich -kipp -
eile-de -an iko up ions e o m-in-de -uk aine/.
55
Dina a Khalilo a e al., “Zelensky Signs Law Changing
Cons i u ional Cou Selec ion P ocedu e”, The Kyi Independ-
en , 18 Augus 2023, h ps://kyi independen .com/zelensky-
signs-law-on-changing-cons i u ional-cou -selec ion-
p ocedu e/.
56
Anas asia Shepele a and Lilia Rzheu ska, “Wha Uk aine’s
Sup eme Cou B ibe y Scandal Means”, Deu sche Welle, 20
May 2023, h ps://www.dw.com/en/wha -uk aines-sup eme-
cou -b ibe y-scandal-means/a-65682855.
he chie judge a his cou , Pa lo Vo k, was no o i-
ous o his dishones me hods and dis up ion o he
judicial sys em. The dissolu ion o he Cou no only
highligh s he dys unc ionali y o he cou sys em in
gene al, bu also shows ha simple aboli ion was he
solu ion chosen by he p esiden ial o ice – as op-
posed o a mo e sys ema ic s a egy ha could ende
he cou independen , unc ional and less p one o
co up ion. Ano he cou wi h an almos iden ical
name was c ea ed o eplace he o iginal one. I he e-
o e emains o be seen whe he he p oblem will be
esol ed o me ely ans e ed o he new s uc u e,
57
especially conside ing ha Pa lo Vo k has e ained
his s a us as a judge and he eby has he igh o an-
o he posi ion wi hin he judicial sys em.
The cen alisa ion o powe in he
p esiden ial o ice du ing he wa
weakens he sepa a ion o powe s.
The cen alisa ion o powe in he p esiden ial
o ice du ing he wa should he e o e be seen as
weakening he sepa a ion o powe s, which com-
pounds de ici s ha exis ed p io o he wa . Indeed,
he demands o wa ime make i e en mo e di icul
o elimina e hese de ici s. The signi ican go e n-
men eshu le in Sep embe 2024 can be seen as a
u he a emp o inc ease he con ol o he p esi-
den ial o ice o e ce ain minis ies, as well as he
go e nmen as a whole.
58
Ne e heless, he s eps
ecommended in he pas by he Eu opean Commis-
sion ha e b ough abou some imp o emen s, pa -
icula ly in he a ea o jus ice, hus demons a ing he
e ec i eness o speci ic EU demands when hey a e
accompanied by a c edible p omise – in his case, he
p omise o open accession nego ia ions. In he Uk ain-
ian con ex , u he e o ms, e en pain ul ones, may
he e o e be possible i he EU’s c edibili y is main-
ained and i a ac i e ewa ds o success ul s eps in
he igh di ec ion can be expec ed a egula in e als.
57
Yeliza e a Do on se a, “In he Focus o he Re o m
Index: Liquida ion o he Dis ic Adminis a i e Cou o
Kyi . How o Ca y he Re o m h ough and No Jus ‘Change
he Sign’”, Vox Uk aine, 23 Janua y 2023, h ps:// oxuk aine.
o g/en/in- he- ocus-o - he- e o m-index-liquida ion-o - he-
dis ic -adminis a i e-cou -o -kyi -how- o-ca y- he- e o m-
h ough-and-no -jus -change- he-sign.
58
Ch is Yo k e al., “Who’s Who in Uk aine’s Bigges Wa -
ime Go e nmen Reshu le”, The Kyi Independen , 4 Sep em-
be 2024, h ps://kyi independen .com/uk aine- eshu les-i s-
go e nmen -whos-ou -whos-in-and-wha -i -all-means/.
The E olu ion o Uk ainian Go e nance since 2022
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20
Deoliga chisa ion
While he Russian in asion has u he en enched
he endency in Uk aine o cen alise powe a ound
he execu i e, an impo an change has occu ed in
ano he a ea: Obse e s ag ee ha he wa has sig-
ni ican ly weakened he in luence o he so-called
oliga chs on Uk ainian poli ics and economic a -
ai s.
59
The e a e se e al easons o his. Fi s , many
oliga chs ha e los key pa s o hei indus ial acil-
i ies due o he des uc ion o in as uc u e caused
by Russia, while o he such acili ies ha e been
na ionalised o e he cou se o he wa . Second, i has
become mo e di icul o impo and – in pa icula
– expo nume ous goods. As a esul , mos oliga chs
ha e had o o ego conside able income. Thi d, ele-
ision epo ing has been s anda dised as a esul o
he wa , so he once signi ican media in luence o
he oliga chs has diminished conside ably. In oday’s
so-called TV ma a hon o ma , i is ha dly possible
o b oadcas a ge ed messages ha co espond o he
agenda o any gi en oliga ch. Fou h, he cen alisa-
ion o powe desc ibed abo e has educed he oli-
ga chs’ abili y o in luence he Rada o he cou s.
Fi h and inally, he o e all wa ime si ua ion has
c ea ed a weak economy and has made i necessa y
o be mo e esponsi e o he needs o he s a e and
he popula ion han in peace ime.
E en hough he so-called an i-oliga ch law, which
was passed in No embe 2021, is o en c i icised
60
and
has been only pa ially implemen ed, i has b ough
abou some changes. I is gene ally assumed ha
his law in pa icula pe suaded Rina Akhme o , he
iches man in Uk aine, o gi e up his media hold-
ings. Fo me Uk ainian P esiden Pe o Po oshenko
ollowed sui . The law de ines an oliga ch acco ding
o ou c i e ia: Weal h, in luence o e poli ics, media
59
On he de elopmen o oliga chs’ asse s in he i s yea
o he wa , see Dmy o Go iuno e al., Oliga chic Uk ainian
Capi al, Policy Pape (Kyi : Cen e o Economic S a egy,
Feb ua y 2023), h ps://ces.o g.ua/en/oliga chic-uk ainian-
capi al- he- esea ch-ces/. On mo e ecen de elopmen s,
see Cons an Méheu , “The Wa Has Reined in Uk aine’s
Oliga chs, a Leas o Now”, The New Yo k Times, 15 Janua y
2024, h ps://www.ny imes.com/2024/01/15/wo ld/eu ope/
uk aine-oliga chs-c ackdown.h ml.
60
See, e.g., Ki a Rudik, “Uk aine’s An i-Oliga ch Law:
P esiden Zelenskyy’s Populis Powe G ab?”, Uk aine Ale
(Blog; A lan ic Council), 15 No embe 2021, h ps://www.
a lan iccouncil.o g/blogs/uk aineale /uk aines-an i-oliga ch-
law-p esiden -zelenskyys-populis -powe -g ab/.
owne ship and monopolisa ion in one indus y o an-
o he . Anyone who ul ils h ee o hese ou c i e ia
acco ding o he Na ional Secu i y Council is classi-
ied as an oliga ch, and he eby canno inance poli i-
cal pa ies, mus disclose hei sou ces o income and
may no pa icipa e in he p i a isa ion o key com-
panies. In addi ion, ep esen a i es o he s a e a e
obliged o epo on hei in e ac ions wi h hese indi-
iduals and hei employees.
61
None heless, Uk ainian and o eign analys s expec
ha he oliga chs will y o es o e p e iously exis -
ing pa e ns o in e ac ion and in luence a e he
wa . Howe e , his iew goes hand in hand wi h he
hope ha deepening ela ions wi h he EU will a ac
mo e in ol emen by in es o s om EU membe
s a es, some o whom will ous he oliga chs.
62
I is
ce ain ha he an i-oliga ch law alone will no be
enough o ackle he p oblem. Ra he , u he sys-
emic changes will need o be made in o de o elimi-
na e he condi ions ha ha e a ou ed he oliga chs
up o his poin .
63
The wa can ac a u ning poin in
61
On he law and i s impac , see “P esiden Immedia ely
Signed he An i-oliga chic Law Passed by he Ve kho na
Rada”, P esiden o Uk aine. O icial Websi e, 5 No embe 2021,
h ps://www.p esiden .go .ua/en/news/p eziden -ne id
kladno-pidpisa -uh alenij- e ho noyu- adoyu-a-71445;
Eugen Theise, “Has Uk aine’s An i-oliga ch Law Had an
Impac ?” Deu sche Welle, 26 Feb ua y 2023, h ps://www.dw.
com/en/has-uk aines-an i-oliga ch-law-had-an-impac /a-
64810387.
62
See Go iuno e al., Oliga chic Uk ainian Capi al (see no e
59); Sla omi Ma uszak, Uk ainian Oliga chs and Thei Business-
es: Thei Fading Impo ance, OSW Commen a y (Wa saw: OSW,
13 June 2023), h ps://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-
commen a y/2023-06-13/uk ainian-oliga chs-and- hei -
businesses- hei - ading.
63
The Venice Commission o he Council o Eu ope also
a gues along hese lines. In a s a emen on he an i-oliga ch
law in Uk aine, i dis inguishes be ween a “sys emic” and a
“pe sonalised” app oach and comes o he conclusion ha
he o me should be p e e ed. In his con ex , i ecom-
mends pos poning he implemen a ion o he an i-oliga ch
law in a ou o a mo e complex app oach ha wo ks
owa ds changes in he poli ical and economic en i onmen .
See Eu opean Commission on Democ acy h ough Law
(Venice Commission), Uk aine. Opinion on he Law “on he P e-
en ion o Th ea s o Na ional Secu i y Rela ed o he Excessi e
In luence o Pe sons wi h Signi ican Economic and Poli ical Weigh
in Public Li e (Oliga chs)”, Adop ed by he Venice Commission
a i s 135 h Plena y Session (Venice, 9–10 June 2023),
(S asbou g, 12 June 2023), h ps://www. enice.coe.in /
web o ms/documen s/de aul .aspx?pd ile=CDL-AD(2023)018-e.
Deoliga chisa ion
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his espec , bu sys emic change will no happen
wi hou poli ical will in Kyi , in pa icula wi hou
he suppo o he p esiden ial o ice o a di e en
go e nance model.
The e is some e idence o sugges ha unde
Zelensky bo h indi idual oliga chs and he oliga chs
as a g oup a e ope a ing unde less a ou able ci -
cums ances han be o e. While i was p ima ily he
Russian in asion ha imposed cons ain s on oli-
ga chs’ p o essional ac i i ies, he u u e o he oliga -
chic model may now be decided by he p esiden ial
o ice. Ea ly on, some wa ned ha his model could
e u n in a modi ied o m o wi h new playe s a e
he wa , especially du ing econs uc ion, when eno -
mous sums o money will be injec ed (see sec ion on
econs uc ion below).
64
Jou nalis s and o he obse -
e s suspec ha a new g oup o oliga chs could in
ac eme ge a ound And iy Ye mak, he head o he
p esiden ial o ice.
65
Ye mak’s leade ship s yle was c i icised e en p io
o he Russian in asion. The e ha e also been epo s
ha his b o he Denys p omised se e al indi iduals
luc a i e posi ions, which he could supposedly ob ain
o hem wi h he help o his b o he ’s in luence.
66
Denys Ye mak la e won a lawsui agains he pa lia-
men a ian Geo Le os, who had published inc imina -
ing ma e ial in his ega d. A numbe o inciden s
occu ed in connec ion wi h he ial; o example,
he ehicles o wo wi nesses we e a acked,
67
and
some obse e s linked hese e en s o he wi nesses’
nega i e s a emen s abou Denys Ye mak in he
64
See, e.g., Ma c Champion and Da yna K asnolu ska,
“Uk aine Has Decima ed I s Oliga chs bu Now Fea s New
Ones”, Bloombe g, 6 Ap il 2023, h ps://www.bloombe g.com/
news/a icles/2023-04-06/how- o- ebuild-uk aine- oo -ou -
co up ion-oliga chs; And iana Velianyk, “Wha Is Happen-
ing o Oliga chs in Uk aine?” S idomi, 11 Ap il 2023, h ps://
s idomi.in.ua/en/page/wha -is-happening- o-oliga chs-in-
uk aine.
65
Paul S a obin, “Uk aine’s Real Powe B oke . Is And iy
Ye mak, Zelensky’s Righ -hand Man, Handing Wa - o n
Uk aine o e o he Oliga chs?” Business Inside , 18 Decembe
2023, h ps://www.businessinside .com/uk aines- eal-powe -
b oke -ye mak-zelensky- ussia-wa -biden-2023-12.
66
Anna My oniuk, “Leaked Videos Implica e Zelensky
Adminis a ion Chie ’s B o he in ‘Selling’ High-le el Posi-
ions”, Kyi Pos , 30 Ma ch 2020, h ps://www.kyi pos .com/
pos /7116.
67
Oleg Sukho , “A acke s Ta ge Vehicles o Wi nesses in
‘Ye makGa e’ Co up ion Scandal”, Kyi Pos , 12 May 2020,
h ps://a chi e.kyi pos .com/uk aine-poli ics/a acke s- a ge -
ehicles-o -wi nesses-in-ye makga e-co up ion-scandal.h ml.
media. Zelensky claimed o be con inced o he
la e ’s innocence,
68
bu jus i ied doub s abou
he handling o he case emain.
69
In addi ion, some o And iy Ye mak’s employees
ha e long been suspec ed o co up ion. This espe-
cially applies o Oleh Ta a o , who is esponsible
o liaising wi h he secu i y and law en o cemen
au ho i ies and o igh ing co up ion in he p esi-
den ial o ice. Ta a o wo ked in he Minis y o he
In e io du ing Vik o Yanuko ych’s p esidency and
suppo ed he iolence agains he Eu omaidan p o-
es e s. In 2020, he was accused o co up ion in wo
cases, bu hese appea o ha e been d opped due o
his in luence in he p esiden ial o ice.
70
Ques ions
ha e also a isen ega ding Ros ysla Shu ma, who
un il ecen ly was esponsible o economic a ai s in
he p esiden ial o ice, due, among o he hings, o a
con lic o in e es in he ield o sola ene gy.
71
How-
e e , he allega ions agains Ta a o a e much mo e
se ious and long- unning.
72
68
“Selens’kyj: b a Je maka ochno ne sjal deneg, on
‘p os o bol un’ i sdelal oshibku, a Le os – ‘a e is ’” [Selens-
kyj: Je mak’s b o he de ini ely did no ake money, he
is “jus a blabbe mou h” and made a mis ake, and Le os is
“a swindle ”], In e ax-Uk aina, 11 June 2020, h ps:// u.
in e ax.com.ua/news/poli ical/668045.h ml.
69
Oleg Sukho , “Case agains B o he o Zelensky’s Chie
o S a Closed, Says An i-co up ion Agency”, The Kyi Inde-
penden , 1 Ap il 2024, h ps://kyi independen .com/nabu-says-
i -closed-co up ion-case-agains -b o he -o -zelenskys-chie -
o -s a /.
70
On he p oblema ic aspec s o Ta a o ’s ca ee , see he
ANTAC dossie “Ta a o ”, h ps://an ac.o g.ua/en/special-
p ojec s/ isaban/ a a o /.
71
“De zha a pla yla sonjachnym s an sijam b a a zas up-
nyka Je maka za elek oene hiju okupa siji” [The s a e paid
he sola a ms belonging o he b o he o Ye mak’s depu y
o elec ici y du ing he occupa ion], bihus.in o, 17 Augus
2023, h ps://bihus.in o/de zha a-pla yla-sonyachnym-
s ancziyam-b a a-zas upnyka-ye maka-za-elek oene giyu- -
okupacziyi/.
72
A wo king g oup was se up in he O ice o he P esi-
den in Ma ch 2024 o deal wi h co up ion isks wi hin he
o ice. Howe e , he e a e well- ounded doub s abou he
ac ual po en ial and e ec i eness o his g oup. See Anas-
asija P oz, “V ‘Česno’ usnali, kak OP p o odi o senku ko -
up sionnych isko s oej deja el’nos i” [The o ganisa ion
‘Česno’ has disco e ed how he O ice o he P esiden ca ies
ou an e alua ion o co up ion isks in i s ac i i ies],
Uk ains’ka P a da, 30 Ap il 2024, h ps://www.p a da.com.ua/
us/news/2024/04/30/7453636/.
The E olu ion o Uk ainian Go e nance since 2022
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22
E en i Zelensky is no longe p esiden a e he
wa (o la e in he wa ), he ne wo ks ha a e cu -
en ly o ming will likely play an impo an ole in
pos -wa Uk aine. Ye mak’s beha iou could hus
be decisi e in de e mining wha kind o Uk aine
eme ges and how i coope a es wi h he Wes . This
will p esumably be he case e en i – as many ex-
pec – he e is a shi owa ds an eli e ha was
di ec ly in ol ed in he wa e o .
Comba ing co up ion
As indica ed abo e, he issue o co up ion is closely
linked o he p oblem o oliga chic ule. Since 2014,
Uk aine has c ea ed a new ins i u ional a chi ec u e
o comba co up ion. I consis s p ima ily o he
Na ional An i-Co up ion Bu eau o Uk aine (NABU),
he Specialised An i-Co up ion P osecu o ’s O ice
(SAPO), he High An i-Co up ion Cou (HACC) and
he Na ional Agency o Co up ion P e en ion (NACP).
E en i judicial e o m and he igh agains co up-
ion a e linked, i is p obably easie o design new
ins i u ions in a a ge ed manne han o econ igu e
an exis ing sec o ( he judicia y) based on comple ely
e ised ounda ions. The new an i-co up ion ins i-
u ions ha e su e ed om a numbe o p oblems,
abo e all inadequa e selec ion p ocedu es. Ne e he-
less, hey a e ul illing hei asks, i no always in a
con incing manne .
Du ing he i s ew mon hs o he in asion, o i-
cial and expe ci cles a gued ha co up ion in
wa ime was un hinkable because no one would da e
o di e esou ces ha a e u gen ly needed o he
coun y’s de ence. Indeed, such beha iou would
make a mocke y o he widesp ead dea h and su e -
ing and cos e en mo e li es. I is qui e possible ha
he wa has pu a dampe on p e ious co up ion
schemes o hese and o he easons. Howe e , his
would be di icul o measu e, and in ac , a numbe
o co up ion scandals ha e come o ligh in ecen
mon hs, sugges ing ha old pa e ns o beha iou no
only con inue o exis , bu e en h i e in he opaci y
o ce ain ansac ions esul ing om he wa . Two
examples o such scandals ha e in ol ed he ec ui -
men o men o mili a y se ice and he p ocu e-
men o oods u s o he a med o ces.
The p esiden and o he s a e ep esen a i es ha e
eac ed quickly and decisi ely o hese abuses, con-
eying he message ha co up ion should no be
ole a ed unde any ci cums ances, especially in he
cu en wa ime si ua ion. When i comes o he case
o co up ion in ec ui men cen es, o icials we e
accused o unjus ly decla ing men un i o mili a y
se ice o esco ing men ou o he coun y in e u n
o la ge sums o money. In esponse, Zelensky dis-
missed all he heads o hese cen es and s a ed ha
hei posi ions should be illed wi h people who had
al eady p o en hei loyal y by ac i ely igh ing in he
wa . As wi h he an i-oliga ch law, his app oach also
in ol es aking ac ion agains pa icula indi iduals,
bu no necessa ily c ea ing condi ions o p e en
such cases om ecu ing.
73
In addi ion, because all
o he heads o hese cen es we e dismissed in one
ell swoop, loyal indi iduals may ha e also been
eleased, po en ially no only discou aging hem bu
maybe e en u ning hem agains he s a e. This
example clea ly highligh s he challenge o sys emic
e o m du ing an ongoing wa .
Wi h ega d o he scandal e ol ing a ound ood
supplies o he a my, in es iga i e jou nalis s om
Radio F ee Eu ope/Radio Libe y disco e ed ha he
Uk ainian a med o ces we e paying exo bi an p ices
o ood p o isions in ce ain cases, appa en ly due
o abuses o he p ocu emen sys em.
74
The a emp s
by hen-Minis e o De ence Oleksiy Rezniko o jus-
i y he paymen s we e no con incing. The inabili y
o Rezniko o explain he si ua ion led in pa o his
esigna ion, e en hough he had es ablished good
ela ions wi h bo h he Uk ainian p esiden and
many Wes e n pa ne s. In his case, oo, he e ela-
ion o co up ion had consequences a he highes
le el o go e nmen . Rezniko ’s successo , Rus em
Ume o , was asked by he p esiden wi h so ing ou
he p ocu emen issues and ackling he unde lying
p oblems.
75
73
Lilia Rzheu ska, “Uk aine S uggles o Cu b Co up ion
in I s Mili a y”, Deu sche Welle, 17 Augus 2023, h ps://www.
dw.com/en/uk aine-mili a y- ec ui e s-dismissed-a e -
b ibe y-scandals/a-66561801. In addi ion, his decision em-
po a ily led o chaos and inc eased ine iciency in he ec-
ui men o ices, as well as o se ious p oblems wi h eplac-
ing he dismissed employees, as no one wan ed o ake on a
posi ion ha was suspec ed o co up ion om he ou se .
74
Heo hiy Shabae e al., “P ices o Uk ainian A my Food
Supplies In la ed, In es iga ion Finds”, Radio F ee Eu ope/Radio
Libe y, 8 Ap il 2023, h ps://www. e l.o g/a/uk aine-a my-
ood-p ices-in la ed/32352747.h ml.
75
Ma in Fo nusek, “Zelensky In oduces New De ense
Minis e Ume o , Names Key Tasks”, The Kyi Independen ,
7 Sep embe 2023, h ps://kyi independen .com/zelensky-
in oduces-new-de ense-minis e -ume o -names-his-key- asks/.
The Uk ainian App oach o Recons uc ion
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The Uk ainian App oach o Recons uc ion
be o e he in asion we e mo e able o emain esili-
en du ing he wa , and his is likely o be ue du ing
econs uc ion as well. Howe e , since No embe
2023, esou ces ha e been aken away om munici-
pali ies and g an ed o he na ional le el o inance
he wa .
101
On he one hand, his is unde s andable,
bu on he o he i unde mines he esilience o he
municipali ies. This could ake i s oll as he wa p o-
g esses, bu also du ing eco e y. I also means ha
communi ies need mo e suppo om ou side. Fo
econs uc ion pu poses, his assis ance can come
bo h om he na ional le el wi hin Uk aine and om
o eign sou ces.
A he municipal le el, coope a ion occu s e-
quen ly be ween local au ho i ies and local ci il soci-
e y ac o s. Abo e and beyond his, h ee o ms o
in e ac ion a e o in e es he e: i s ly, e ical ela-
ionships be ween he municipal and egional o
na ional le els wi hin Uk aine; secondly, ho izon al
coope a ion be ween ac o s om di e en munici-
pali ies; and hi dly, di ec coope a ion be ween
municipali ies and in e na ional pa ne s.
Ve ical coope a ion be ween municipali ies and
he na ional Agency o Recons uc ion is al eady
ion, and Ins i u ions (online), 6 Oc obe 2023, doi: 10.1111/
go e.12827.
101
“Uk ainian Lawmake s Back Use o Mili a y Taxes o
Fund A ms Pu chases”, Reu e s, 8 No embe 2023, h ps://
www. eu e s.com/wo ld/eu ope/uk ainian-lawmake s-back-
use-mili a y- axes- und-a ms-pu chases-2023-11-08/. Fo he
ex o he law, see he Uk ainian pa liamen ’s websi e,
h ps://zakon. ada.go .ua/laws/show/3428-IX?lang=en#Tex .
unc ioning. Municipali ies can submi applica ions
o econs uc ion p ojec s, which a e assessed on he
basis o a numbe o c i e ia and po en ially app o ed.
Howe e , his should no be he only unding chan-
nel o such p ojec s o se e al easons. Fi s ly, he
capaci y o his agency and i s egional o ices is lim-
i ed, bo h inancially and in e ms o pe sonnel. P e-
iously, i deal p ima ily wi h oad cons uc ion
and o he in as uc u e, bu he cu en needs o he
municipali ies in he con ex o econs uc ion go a
beyond his. Secondly, he municipali ies a e
con on ed wi h bu eauc a ic and inancial hu dles.
The incen i e o apply o smalle p ojec s is limi ed
because he cos s in ol ed in he applica ion p ocess
a e oo high. Se e al cases indica e ha implemen e s
o small and mic o-p ojec s a oid he DREAM pla -
o m (see abo e) because using i is ela i ely com-
plica ed. Some also ea ha DREAM’s anspa ency
may jeopa dise hei p ojec s because Russian ac o s
could ind ou abou hem and hen p e en o
des oy hem. The e ha e also been complain s ha
communi ies mus pay specialised companies in
o de o documen he damage done be o e hey can
apply o unding om he Agency o Recons uc-
ion. This is una o dable o some municipali ies
which canno pay in ad ance, especially as hey can-
no be su e ha hei applica ion will be app o ed.
102
Despi e hese p oblems, he Agency emains an im-
po an elemen in he econs uc ion a chi ec u e.
102
I would like o hank Sabine Fische o p o iding in-
o ma ion abou he p oblems wi h he applica ion p ocess.
Box: Municipali ies and decen alisa ion
Since 2014, he local le el in Uk aine has gone h ough con-
side able changes and is he e o e ele an o his analysis in
se e al espec s. Fi s ly, i o ms he co e o he decen alisa ion
e o m o da e. Secondly, i is impo an o he poli ical and
adminis a i e s uc u e o he coun y and he e o e also o
cen al go e nance issues. Thi dly, he municipali ies will play
a key ole in econs uc ion and eco e y.
Aspec s o local sel -go e nmen ha e a long his o y in in-
dependen Uk aine. Howe e , i was no un il 2014 ha se ious
e o m was in oduced in his a ea. E en hough his a ec ed
se e al adminis a i e le els in p inciple, i was p ima ily he
local le el ha unde wen signi ican changes. As a esul o
he e o m, smalle uni s ha e been me ged o o m la ge ones
(amalgama ed e i o ial communi ies, o ATCs). This has hap-
pened on a olun a y basis, h ough inancial incen i es. The
new en i ies a e en i led o a conside able p opo ion o ce ain
ax e enues and a e ee o decide how o use hese unds.
Because o his, hey a e cons an ly gaining expe ise in budge -
ing as well as p ojec de elopmen and implemen a ion. In
addi ion, he elec ed ep esen a i es o he ATCs now ha e mo e
esponsibili ies and a e held o a highe deg ee o accoun abili y
i hey disappoin esiden s.
Be o e he e o m, he municipali ies we e a mo e depend-
en on he ayon and oblas adminis a i e le els abo e hem.
Wi h he decen alisa ion measu es, he powe s o hese wo
le els ha e been educed and hei impo ance (especially
ha o he ayons) has been called in o ques ion. Al hough he
e o m has no ye been comple ed, he new powe s o he local
le el ha e s eng hened he ATCs and enabled hem o play a
signi ican ole du ing he wa – and e en mo e so since he
in asion on 24 Feb ua y 2022. The expe ience and expe ise
gained in his con ex will also bene i econs uc ion e o s.

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In o mal ela ionships be ween municipali ies a e
impo an , and no only in imes o wa . On a mo e
o mal le el, s uc u es ha de end he in e es s o
municipali ies and ensu e ho izon al exchange also
exis . One o he bes -known o hese is he Asso-
cia ion o Uk ainian Ci ies (AUC), chai ed by Vi aly
Kli schko, he mayo o Kyi .
103
This associa ion in o-
duces poin s o iew in o he legisla i e p ocess
ha a e ele an o municipali ies (including du ing
econs uc ion). I has also compiled a numbe o
success ul bes p ac ices om municipali ies in imes
o wa .
104
This ype o ho izon al coope a ion is help-
ul o econs uc ion p ojec s because i se es as a
esou ce o municipali ies seeking ad ice, expe ise
o exchange o expe ience. S uc u es such as he
AUC a e mo e us ed han hose loca ed abo e he
municipali ies in he s a e hie a chy, as he la e
may seek o impose hei own op-down agendas.
E en hough many in e na ional ac o s ac i e in
econs uc ion e o s p e e o es ablish con ac s wi h
municipali ies wi h he help o na ional au ho i ies,
some wo k di ec ly wi h municipal s uc u es.
105
Es onia, o example, p o ides assis ance o he Zhy o-
my Oblas and os e s nume ous di ec con ac s
be ween Es onian and Uk ainian municipali ies in
o de o u he eco e y in a ious a eas.
106
Coope a-
ion be ween Denma k and he Mykolai egion shows
ha a p oduc i e mix o coope a ion can de elop a
he na ional, egional and municipal le els.
107
E en
be o e he in asion in 2022, Denma k and Mykolai
had signed a memo andum o unde s anding wi h he
103
See he websi e o he AUC, h ps://auc.o g.ua/.
104
Oleksand Slobozhan, ed, Zbi nik k ashchykh p ak yk
h omad u ijs’ko yj chas [A Collec ion o Bes P ac ices o Com-
muni ies in Wa ime] (Kyi , 2023), h ps://auc.o g.ua/no yna/
zbi nyk-k ashchyh-p ak yk-g omad-u- iysko yy-chas.
105
On his opic see Ie geniia Bodnya and Alina Inayeh,
The Powe o Pa ne ship: In e na ional Suppo e s o Uk aine’s Local
Recons uc ion (Ge man Ma shall Fund, May 2024), h ps://
www.gm us.o g/news/powe -pa ne ship-in e na ional-
suppo e s-uk aines-local- econs uc ion.
106
Es onia’s ambassado o Uk aine, Annely Kolk, de-
sc ibed he coope a ion be ween Es onia and he Zhy omy
Oblas a a Vox Uk aine con e ence on 10 No embe 2023,
h ps://2023con e ence. oxuk aine.o g/.
107
Vladysla Fa apono , “Denma k’s Suppo in Res o ing
Mykolai Is a Model o Uk aine’s Pos wa Reco e y”, Focus
Uk aine (Blog, Kennan Ins i u e, Wilson Cen e ), 2 No embe
2023, h ps://www.wilsoncen e .o g/blog-pos /denma ks-
suppo - es o ing-mykolai -model-uk aines-pos wa -
eco e y.
aim o join ly de eloping shipbuilding in Uk aine.
108
Denma k is also suppo ing he ci y o Mykolai and
o he loca ions in he egion wi h wa e pumps and
gene a o s, o example. Due in pa o he isk o
co up ion in his coope a ion, a p og amme has
been launched wi h he ci y o Mykolai o p e en
he misuse o esou ces.
109
Fu he mo e, a new
b anch o he Danish embassy and an o ice o he
Danish Re ugee Council in Mykolayi aim o ensu e
inc eased con ac wi h ci izens and heigh ened awa e-
ness o wha is happening on he g ound.
110
Such
o ms o coope a ion make i easie o ac o s om
EU membe s a es o iden i y and encou age possible
syne gies be ween econs uc ion and EU accession.
Each municipali y will es ablish a
sligh ly di e en mix o coope a ion
in o de o con on he challenges o
econs uc ion.
O he ex e nal ac o s will also be impo an o
econs uc ion in some Uk ainian municipali ies,
o example in he con ex o exis ing o newly es ab-
lished sis e ci y pa ne ships. By au umn 2023, 356
Uk ainian municipali ies had es ablished 1,464 pa -
ne ships, mainly wi h Polish ci ies and municipali ies
(501), bu also wi h Hunga ian (122), Ge man (86),
Romanian (83) and o he o eign municipali ies;
111
and hese numbe s ha e ce ainly g own since hen.
Many in o mal connec ions ha e also de eloped.
Businesses om ab oad ha in end o o ha e al eady
es ablished hemsel es in pa icula Uk ainian ci ies
108
“Uk aine, Denma k Sign Memo andum on Join Ship
Cons uc ion”, Uk in o m, 20 Decembe 2021, h ps://www.
uk in o m.ne / ub ic-economy/3372283-uk aine-denma k-
sign-memo andum-on-join -ship-cons uc ion.h ml.
109
“Mykolai o Become a Model Case o a T anspa en
Recons uc ion P ocess”, EUACI News, Augus 2022, h ps://
euaci.eu/news/mykolai - o-become-a-model-case- o -a-
anspa en - econs uc ion-p ocess.
110
“DRC P esence in Sou he n Uk aine o Reach Newly
Accessible A eas”, DRC P o essional, 21 Feb ua y 2023, h ps://
p o.d c.ngo/ esou ces/news/d c-p esence-in-sou he n-uk aine-
o- each-newly-accessible-a eas/; Minis y o Fo eign A ai s
o Denma k, “Denma k Opens New Embassy O ice in Myko-
lai ”, 2 Oc obe 2023, h ps://uk aine.um.dk/en/news/
denma k-opens-new-embassy-o ice-in-mykolai .
111
Ma iia Lukyano a and Vladlena Ma synke ych, Local
Budge s and he Recons uc ion o Uk aine (CEE Bankwa ch Ne -
wo k/Ekodija, No embe 2023), 15, h ps://bankwa ch.o g/
publica ion/local-budge s-and- he- econs uc ion-o -uk aine.
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31
can become in ol ed in local econs uc ion p ojec s.
Religious o ganisa ions can also suppo eco e y
e o s. Each communi y will p obably pu sue a
sligh ly di e en mix o coope a ion in o de o con-
on he challenges o econs uc ion.
The o ms and le els o coope a ion in econs uc-
ion a e he e o e complex and dynamic. A he mu-
nicipal le el, each communi y is in a di e en phase
o de elopmen and dese es con inued a en ion
mo ing o wa d. None heless, h ee b oade conclu-
sions can al eady be d awn.
Fi s ly, he links be ween ac o s and ins i u ions in
he econs uc ion p ocess should be cons an ly moni-
o ed and s eng hened. The ole o local ac o s should
emain a key ocus. Recons uc ion is a long p ocess
wi h many phases ha a e cu en ly di icul o p e-
dic and do no occu simul aneously in all locali ies.
I is he e o e c ucial o keep asking o wha ex en
local ac o s a e in ol ed a he a ious le els and
whe he hei inclusion is occu ing sensibly and su -
icien ly. The MADCP should no communica e exclu-
si ely wi h Uk ainian na ional au ho i ies, as i can
also bene i om consul ing wi h ac o s a he egional
and local le els. The minis ies esponsible o eco -
e y and he Agency o Recons uc ion also need o
ensu e ha he condi ions o in ensi ied dialogue
wi h local ac o s a e in place. This could make i nec-
essa y o p o ide mo e esou ces o he egional le el
as an impo an bu cu en ly unde u ilised in e me-
dia y. Exchange be ween ac o s om di e en munici-
pali ies wi hin a egion o ac oss egions could help
o no only dissemina e bes p ac ices ho izon ally,
bu also o es ablish and expand ne wo ks. The Asso-
cia ion o Uk ainian Ci ies is well placed o con inue
con ibu ing o his exchange.
Secondly, simply in ol ing municipal s akeholde s
in econs uc ion e o s is insu icien ; hei com-
pe ences and capaci ies also need o be s eng hened
in o de o posi ion hem o success in ul illing hei
new oles. Abo e all, his means con inuing decen-
alisa ion and egional de elopmen e o m meas-
u es,
112
which can also be pu sued wi hin he ame-
wo k o EU accession. Fu he mo e, i will be impo -
an bo h o inc ease unding o municipali ies (and
hei capaci y o manage such unds) and o amend
112
Fo a de ailed discussion o hese issues, see OECD,
Rebuilding Uk aine by Rein o cing Regional and Municipal Go e n-
ance, OECD Mul i-le el Go e nance S udies (Pa is: OECD
Publishing, 2022), esp. pp. 15–17, doi: 10.1787/63a6b479-
en.
Uk ainian legisla ion so ha municipal o ganisa ions
can ecei e in e na ional g an s and loans.
113
A su ey
conduc ed in au umn 2023 showed ha mos munici-
pali ies had no di ec access o na ional o in e na-
ional unds.
114
Ins ead o insis ing ha e e y p ojec
in e e y municipali y go h ough he same p ocedu e,
i seems mo e sensible o c ea e condi ions ha allow
municipali ies o ake on mos asks hemsel es.
Among o he hings, his would mean p omo ing ci il
socie y s uc u es ha eed ideas and expe ise in o
he econs uc ion p ocess and closely ollow econ-
s uc ion e o s wi h he help o moni o ing mecha-
nisms gea ed owa ds educing co up ion.
115
Con-
ce ning he dis ibu ion o unds, enowned econo-
mis and Nobel P ize winne Roge Mye son has p o-
posed decen alising a leas a hi d o he unding
o econs uc ion and di ec ing i o he local le el.
116
Thi dly, de elopmen s o da e ha e shown ha
i will no be possible, le alone expedien , o shape
each econs uc ion e o acco ding o he same
mould. Ne e heless, i makes sense o majo dono s
o coo dina e hei e o s wi hin he amewo k o
MADCP. I is equally impo an ha an ins i u ional
a chi ec u e has been c ea ed in Uk aine o o ganise
econs uc ion, especially wi h espec o la ge in a-
s uc u e p ojec s and o e a ching measu es ha
a ec mo e han one a ea. This is why he un imely
and uncon incing changes a minis e ial le el de-
sc ibed abo e a e pa icula ly p oblema ic. A he
municipal le el, de elopmen s a e likely o be e en
mo e complex and dispa a e han a o he le els,
especially because hey encompass an ex ao dina ily
b oad spec um o a eas and ac i i ies. In addi ion o
he physical econs uc ion o homes, schools, hospi-
als and o he acili ies, municipali ies will be aced
wi h o he asks including dealing wi h e ugees and
e u nees, ea ing he men al heal h o auma ised
ci izens and acili a ing wa e e ans’ e u n o ci il-
113
Lukyano a and Ma synke ch, Local Budge s and he
Recons uc ion o Uk aine (see no e 111), esp. pp. 9–11.
114
Ibid., 15.
115
Hubs ha b ing oge he ep esen a i es om ci il
socie y and local go e nmen can play an impo an ole
he e. Fo an example o an al eady unc ioning hub in he
ci y o Vinny sia, see h ps://mis ozmis i . n.ua/en/hub-
mis o-zmis i /.
116
Roge Mye son, “Pos wa Recons uc ion Assis ance
and local Go e nmen s in Uk aine”, VoxEU Column (Cen e
o Economic Policy Resea ch, 9 Ma ch 2023), h ps://cep .o g/
oxeu/columns/pos wa - econs uc ion-assis ance-and-local-
go e nmen s-uk aine.
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ian li e. These di e se challenges indica e how di -
icul i would be o in eg a e such a a ie y o e o s
wi hin a single ins i u ional s uc u e du ing econ-
s uc ion. Conside ing his, i migh be mo e ad is-
able o welcome di e en o ms o sepa a e bu com-
plemen a y ac i i ies. Duplica ion o ce ain measu es
o a lack o in o ma ion and anspa ency in a limi ed
numbe o a eas would p obably be less damaging
han s i ling small-scale ac i i ies o d i ing hem
unde g ound due o bu densome bu eauc a ic and
egula o y ed ape.
Conclusion and Recommenda ions
SWP Be lin
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33
Uk aine has demons a ed an as onishing deg ee o
esilience since 2022. This applies no only o i s mili-
a y, bu also o he ealms o poli ics and socie y.
117
I was su p ising o many ou side obse e s ha
Uk aine decided o p oac i ely d i e he EU accession
p ocess o wa d, e en hough Kyi was and s ill is
la gely p eoccupied wi h mili a y challenges. The
coun y has shown ha i is possible o make subs an-
ial s eps owa ds e o m e en amid in ense igh ing.
Up o his poin , he case o Uk aine has con i med
ha p og ess is mo e likely o be made when con-
c e e, limi ed measu es a e demanded in o de o
each he nex s age o he p ocess. I is unde s and-
able ha he pace o e o m has dec eased o e he
pas wo yea s, gi en he mul iple wa - ela ed chal-
lenges Kyi is acing. In his si ua ion, Uk aine will
need assis ance o p epa e o he a ious s ages o
accession nego ia ions and he expec a ions accom-
panying hem. Ne e heless, he wa should no be
used as a eason o pos pone he accession p ocess,
especially as he EU can use i s demands du ing his
c i ical ime o help shape he poli ical and economic
en i onmen ha will cha ac e ise Uk aine a e
he wa .
This oppo uni y o shape he en i onmen is pa -
icula ly impo an because he wa has no ye led
o a u ning poin when i comes o Uk aine’s o m
o go e nance. E en i he condi ions o wa ime do
make i impe a i e o cen alise decision-making, as
117
A simila de elopmen can be obse ed in he eco-
nomic ealm, bu his is no co e ed in he p esen analysis.
See, e.g., Ande s Åslund, “Uk aine’s Wa ime Economy Is
Pe o ming Su p isingly Well”, Uk aine Ale (Blog; A lan ic
Council), 2 Janua y 2024, h ps://www.a lan iccouncil.o g/
blogs/uk aineale /uk aines-wa ime-economy-is-pe o
ming-su p isingly-well/; Iikka Ko honen, “Uk aine’s Econo-
my G ows amids he Rising Toll o Wa ”, Bank o Finland
Bulle in, 23 Feb ua y 2024, h ps://www.bo bulle in. i/en/
blogs/2024/uk aines-economy-g ows-amids - he- ising- oll-o -
wa /.
simila cases ha e shown, he ex en o which his is
cu en ly occu ing in Uk aine is ne e heless p ob-
lema ic. This is all he mo e wo ying conside ing
ha Kyi has, o decades, exhibi ed a endency o
expand he powe o he p esidency. This inc easingly
calls in o ques ion he sepa a ion o powe s, especial-
ly as he judicia y emains la gely un e o med and
unable o ul il i s ole as an independen au ho i y.
O e he cou se o he EU accession p ocess, i will
he e o e be necessa y o epea edly emphasise hose
e o m elemen s ha could b ing abou sys emic
changes by disman ling he de imen al symbiosis
be ween poli ics and business ha cons i u es he
ounda ion o oliga chic go e nance.
A con inua ion o he cu en Uk ainian app oach,
combined wi h la ge sums o money o econs uc-
ion, is likely o e i e he oliga chic sys em unde
new auspices. The e o e, he so-called undamen als,
i.e. he a eas mos closely ela ed o he es ablishmen
o ule o law, should be placed a he cen e o he
accession p ocess, as en isaged by he EU’s new en-
la gemen me hodology. Howe e , his emphasis on
he ule o law will only emain c edible i he EU
succeeds in pu ing a s op o eg ession in his a ea
among i s own membe s a es. Some in Uk aine ha e
al eady begun o objec o EU demands ha canno
e en be me by i s cu en membe s. Fu he mo e,
he EU mus con inuously p o e a a ious le els ha
i is willing and able o con inue he accession p ocess
wi h Uk aine and ha i will admi he coun y when
app op ia e. This in ol es no only eac ing o p o-
g ess in Uk aine in a imely ashion, bu also conduc -
ing in e nal e o m o he EU.
118
118
On he nexus be ween e o m and EU enla gemen ,
see, e.g., Ca los Bas asin, Wan Uk aine in he EU? You’ll Ha e o
Re o m he EU, Too (Washing on, D.C.: B ookings Ins i u ion,
July 2023), h ps://www.b ookings.edu/a icles/wan -uk aine-
in- he-eu-youll-ha e- o- e o m- he-eu- oo/; Daniel Göle ,
Widening and Deepening? P epa ing he EU o he In eg a ion
Conclusion and
Recommenda ions
Conclusion and Recommenda ions
SWP Be lin
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Ci il socie y con inues o play an impo an ole
in ad ancing e o m and p epa ing Uk aine o EU
accession. Howe e , his ole has diminished du ing
he wa and become mo e luid. Al hough many
mo e ci izens ha e become socially ac i e, mos o
hem a e engaged in ac i i ies di ec ly ela ed o he
wa . Also, because many people ha e been d a ed
in o he mili a y o ha e le he coun y, ewe
esou ces a e a ailable o moni o ing and suppo -
ing e o m p ocesses.
The EU should con inue o wo k closely wi h
Uk ainian ci il socie y in u he ing e o m. Those
who ha e emained in he coun y and ha e expe i-
ence in ce ain e o m a eas a e in aluable, as hey
can ale ex e nal ac o s o he dange s acing e o m
p ocesses while also p oposing ways o o e come
obs acles. Cons an ly ecalib a ing and, i necessa y,
expanding o ms o coope a ion wi h di e en ci il
socie y ac o s wi hin Uk aine will help o s eng hen
moni o ing e o s ac oss he coun y while adap ing
o e s o suppo acco dingly. Ci il socie y ac o s also
ha e an impo an unc ion as in e media ies be-
ween he EU and Uk ainian socie y when i comes o
he accession p ocess. This is ano he eason why he
EU may wan o wo k wi h he Uk ainian go e nmen
o c ea e incen i es o mo e mig an s o e u n. This
will no only inc ease he numbe o people who can
suppo he e o m agenda, bu also allow e u nees
o dissemina e knowledge abou hei expe ience o
li ing in he EU.
An o e a ching a chi ec u e o econs uc ion is
now a leas pa ly in place. The Mul i-agency Dono
Coo dina ion Pla o m, which b ings oge he o eign
dono s, is ac i e a he in e na ional le el. Thanks
o Uk aine’s co-chai manship, he Pla o m is closely
linked o econs uc ion e o s in he coun y, which
a e managed and implemen ed by he ele an minis-
ies and he Agency o Recons uc ion. None heless,
local ac o s will be key o he success o econs uc-
ion, whe he hey be local au ho i ies, businesses o
ci il socie y o ganisa ions. A he communi y le el,
a a ie y o coope a i e e o s a e eme ging ha a e
linked o ela ions wi h he EU in mul iple ways, e en
i hey a e no always in e connec ed wi h highe
le els o he s a e hie a chy in Uk aine.
o New Membe S a es (Genshagen: Genshagen Founda ion,
Oc obe 2023), h ps://www.s i ung-genshagen.de/
publika ionen/widening-and-deepening-p epa ing- he-eu-
o - he-in eg a ion-o -new-membe -s a es/.
The in ol emen o municipal ac o s in he my iad
aspec s o econs uc ion should be seen as a p ocess
ha equi es cons an eadjus men as he needs o
communi ies change. The Uk aine Reco e y Con e -
ences can be used, among o he hings, o highligh
he challenges a he municipal le el and o ask o
wha ex en suppo o municipal in ol emen needs
o be eadap ed. A s eng hened engagemen o mu-
nicipal s akeholde s can also inc ease hei awa eness
o he links be ween econs uc ion and EU accession.
A he same ime, i should be accep ed ha a
somewha chao ic le el o di e si y a he municipal
le el will con inue o exis and will encou age c ea-
i e solu ions o he challenges o econs uc ion.
Finally, while i is impo an o e ec i ely in ol e
municipal ac o s in eco e y p ocesses, i is equally
c ucial o imp o e he en i onmen in which hey
ope a e. In his con ex , i is essen ial ha decen ali-
sa ion con inue in he con ex o deepening ela ions
wi h he EU. Be o e he in asion, his p ocess helped
o s eng hen he ole o municipali ies by inc easing
hei compe ences and esou ces. Ad ancing his
e o m can also help o educe excessi e cen alisa-
ion a he na ional le el by gi ing municipali ies
mo e compe ences and inc eased access o inancial
esou ces. In his way, he challenges o econs uc-
ion a e in e wined wi h hose o he e o m agenda
and wi h domes ic policy de elopmen s ega ding
go e nance. This highligh s he in e sec ions o he
a ious a eas explo ed in his pape .
This analysis has ocussed on how poli ical and
(ci il) socie y de elopmen s in Uk aine could in lu-
ence i s ela ions wi h he EU and, in pa icula ,
i s po en ial accession. Clea ly, he de elopmen s
desc ibed he e and he ela ions be ween he EU and
Uk aine a e closely linked o he ajec o y o he
Russian wa o agg ession. Poli ical and (ci il) socie y
ac o s in Uk aine will ha e o con inue adap ing hei
ac ions o he needs o he wa , and he wa imposes
es ic ions on he way in which he accession p ocess
can p og ess. An accele a ed p ocess ( as ack) o-
wa ds Uk ainian EU membe ship, which is some imes
demanded by ce ain s akeholde s, seems nei he
ealis ic no a ou able om an EU pe spec i e.
Ins ead, i is ad isable o complemen he accession
p ocess wi h necessa y secu i y measu es in o de o
ensu e Uk aine’s abili y o e ec i ely de end i sel
while simul aneously pu suing e o ms.
Despi e he ho o s in ol ed, he wa has pa ed
he way o a apid deepening o ela ions be ween
Uk aine and he EU. This deepening has been accom-

Conclusion and Recommenda ions
SWP Be lin
Uk aine du ing he Russian Wa o Agg ession
Sep embe 2024
35
panied by a widening o he ela ionship, as new
a eas o coope a ion a e cons an ly being added o
p e iously exis ing ones. E en i he EU has no been
able o ans o m i sel in o an e ec i e secu i y ac o
o e nigh , i has aken nume ous, a imes su p ising
s eps o suppo Uk aine in de ending i sel . In he
coming mon hs, he EU and i s membe s a es will be
called upon mo e han e e o ensu e he secu i y o
Uk aine and Eu ope as a whole. I will be c ucial o
hem o make a signi ican con ibu ion o Uk aine’s
sys emic ans o ma ion and econs uc ion, as bo h
will be necessa y o Uk aine as a u u e EU membe
s a e.
Abb e ia ions
ANTAC
An i-Co up ion Ac ion Cen e
ATC
Amalgama ed Te i o ial Communi y
AUC
Associa ion o Uk ainian Ci ies
DCFTA
Deep and Comp ehensi e F ee T ade A ea
DGAP
Ge man Council on Fo eign Rela ions (Be lin)
DREAM
Digi al Res o a ion Ecosys em o Accoun able
Managemen
EaP
Eas e n Pa ne ship
ECFR
Eu opean Council on Fo eign Rela ions
EPF
Eu opean Peace Facili y
ESI
Eu opean S abili y Ini ia i e
EU
Eu opean Union
EUACI
Eu opean Union An i-Co up ion Ini ia i e (Kyi )
EUAM
EU Ad iso y Mission
HACC
High An i-Co up ion Cou
IFSH
Ins i u e o Peace Resea ch and Secu i y Policy a
he Uni e si y o Hambu g
MADCP
Mul i-agency Dono Coo dina ion Pla o m
NABU
Na ional An i-Co up ion Bu eau o Uk aine
NACP
Na ional Agency o Co up ion P e en ion
NATO
No h A lan ic T ea y O ganiza ion
NEC
New Eu ope Cen e
OSCE
O ganiza ion o Secu i y and Co-ope a ion in
Eu ope
OSW
Oś odek S udiów Wschodnich (Cen e o Eas e n
S udies; Wa saw)
PONARS
P og am on New App oaches o Russian Secu i y
(Cen e o S a egic and In e na ional S udies
[CSIS]; Washing on, DC)
SAPO
Specialised An i-Co up ion P osecu o ’s O ice
SGUA
Suppo G oup o Uk aine
UCEP
Uk ainian Cen e o Eu opean Policy
USA
Uni ed S a es o Ame ica