Kohne , Di k
P ep in
The impac o he indus ialized na ion's CO₂ emissions on clima e
change in Sub-Saha an A ica: Case s udies om Sou h A ica, Nige ia
and he DR Congo
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kohne , Di k (2024) : The impac o he indus ialized na ion's CO₂ emissions on
clima e change in Sub-Saha an A ica: Case s udies om Sou h A ica, Nige ia and he DR Congo,
Zenodo, Genè e,
h ps://doi.o g/10.5281/zenodo.10674973 ,
h ps://zenodo.o g/ eco ds/10674973
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/300880
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1
The impac o he indus ialized na ion’s CO2 emissions
on clima e change in Sub-Saha an A ica:
Case s udies om Sou h A ica, Nige ia and he DR Congo
Di k Kohne
1
Weal hy na ions snub A ican clima e summi
and emain indi e en o A icans' su e ing
2
Sou ce: © Damien Glez; This is A ica, 9 Sep embe 2022
Abs ac : Human ac i i y has ans o med he plane a a pace and scale unp eceden ed in
eco ded his o y, causing i e e sible damage o communi ies and ecosys ems. Coun ies ha e
ocused hei capaci ies on economic g ow h, wi h oo li le a en ion o ex e nali ies in e ms o
en i onmen al quali y. The wo ld will no a oid ca as ophic wa ming unless weal hy na ions
accele a e hei educ ion o own emissions and help poo e coun ies o do he same. No h
Ame ica and Eu ope ha e con ibu ed 62 % o ca bon dioxide emissions since he indus ial
e olu ion, while A ica has con ibu ed only 3%. Howe e , i is in sub-Saha an A ica (SSA)
ha he impac s a e mos se e e and he people mos ulne able. De eloped coun ies, in hei
own in e es s, should ocus on ways o help de eloping coun ies phase ou ossil uels and
ansi ion o enewable ene gy. Howe e , he e a e ensions be ween iche and poo e na ions
o e who should pay he cos s o global wa ming. Rich coun ies ha e a esponsibili y o ac
mo e quickly han hei low-income coun e pa s. Ye go e nmen s con inue o subsidise he use
o ossil uels, and banks and companies s ill in es mo e in pollu ing indus ies han in clima e
solu ions. The consump ion habi s o he iches 10 % o people gene a e h ee imes mo e
pollu ion han hose o he poo es 50 %. Eme ging economies such as China and India, which
plan o achie e ne -ze o emissions by 2060 and 2070 espec i ely, should join he de eloped
wo ld in accele a ing emissions educ ions. I is no jus he way we p oduce and use ene gy ha
needs o change quickly. I 's he way we consume ood, he way we p o ec na u e. I 's
e e y hing, e e ywhe e, all a once. The ag icul u al sec o is pa icula ly ulne able, especially
in SSA coun ies whe e ag icul u e is cen al o he economy. Among he op eigh coun ies
wi h he highes cumula i e ne emissions om ag icul u e, o es y and o he land use a e wo
SSA coun ies, Nige ia and DR Congo. Mos o hese emissions a e embodied in ade and a e
caused by consump ion in egions such as Eu ope, he Uni ed S a es and China. The
es ablishmen o he Loss and Damage Fund ag eed a COP27 will no be enough o u n he
ide, no will i necessa ily ansla e in o clima e inance commi men s, gi en he lack o
p og ess in deli e ing he p omised US$100 billion in annual clima e inance om ich
coun ies. A ican coun ies hemsel es need o e lec on hei own s eng hs and s ep up hei
e o s in a imely and subs an ial way.
Keywo ds : En i onmen al sus ainabili y, Ca bon neu ali y, clima e change, Ca bon dioxide,
en i onmen al pollu ion, g eenhouse gas, ossil uel, enewable ene gy, Go e nance, Eu opean Union,
highly indus ialized coun ies, eme ging economies, BRICS, Sub-Saha an A ica, Sou h A ica,
Nige ia, DR Congo
JEL-Code: E26, F18, F54, F64, G38, H23, H84, H87, I15, I31, K32, N17, N37, N57, O13, O44, O55,
Q54, Z13
1
Di k Kohne , associa ed expe , GIGA-Ins i u e o A ican A ai s, Hambu g. D a : 22 Feb ua y 2024
2
Re e ing o a mee ing o A ican and o he wo ld leade s in Ro e dam on 7 Sep embe 2022, wo mon hs
be o e he 27 h Uni ed Na ions Clima e Change Con e ence (COP27) in Sha m El-Sheik, Egyp (A DB 2022).
The only Wes e n leade o appea in pe son was he Du ch hos , P ime Minis e Ma k Ru e (Glez, 2022).
2
1. In oduc ion
Ca oon 2: The dange o ca bon emissions o poo coun ies
Sou ce: © Rahma Ca oons, ca oon-mo emen , 28 Augus 2023
Two mon hs be o e he 27 h Uni ed Na ions Clima e Change Con e ence, commonly e e ed
o as COP27, held om 6 No embe un il 20 No embe 2022 in Sha m El Sheikh, Egyp ,
A ican and o he global leade s allied in Ro e dam, o highligh he u gency o clima e
adap a ion unding o A ica. The o me Uni ed Na ions (UN) Sec e a y-Gene al Ban Ki-
moon, cau ioned: “The wo ld has a e e . I bu ns ho e and highe wi h e e y day ha
passes … S a is ics ell us ha A ica is whe e he e e is a i s mos in ense and people a he
mos ulne able.” (A DB, 2022).
The wo ld is on he b ink o ca as ophic wa ming, bu ew coun ies and ins i u ions a e
ac ing as enough, acco ding o he UN's clima e epo . The epo , published in Ma ch 2023
by he UN's In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC), ound ha he wo ld is
likely o miss i s mos ambi ious clima e a ge o limi ing wa ming o 1.5 deg ees Celsius
abo e p e-indus ial empe a u es wi hin a decade. Beyond ha h eshold, clima e disas e s
will become so ex eme ha people will no be able o adap (Kaplan, 2023). Acco ding o he
Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion (FAO) o he Uni ed Na ions (UN), malnu i ion has
inc eased by almos 50% since 2012, owing o he cen al ole ag icul u e plays in A ican
economies, allegedly causing 1.7 million dea hs annually in A ica (A woli, e al., 2023).
The ag icul u al sec o , such as a ming, logging, ishing, and o es y, is pa icula ly
ulne able o i e e sible wea he changes. This, in u n, is dis up ing global consump ion
pa e ns, pa icula ly in coun ies whe e ag icul u e is cen al o he economy and
p oduc i i y. By shi ing op imum empe a u e anges, clima e change is also inc easing
biodi e si y loss by al e ing ecosys em a chi ec u e. Clima e change inc eases he isk o
ood, wa e and ec o -bo ne diseases (Raihan, 2023). D ough s in sub-Saha an A ica ha e
ipled be ween 1970–1979 and 2010–2019. In 2018, de as a ing cyclones impac ed 2.2
million people in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Mo e han wo- hi ds o A ica's
popula ion, o ins ance, depend on o es esou ces o hei li elihoods, ood, uelwood, and
g azing. In Wes and Cen al A ica, se e e looding esul ed in mo ali y and o ced
mig a ion om loss o shel e , cul i a ed land, and li es ock (A woli, e al., 2023).
A ica has su e ed disp opo iona ely al hough i has done li le o cause he c isis (Zielinski,
2023). No h Ame ica and Eu ope ha e con ibu ed 62 % o ca bon dioxide emissions since
he Indus ial Re olu ion, whe eas A ica has con ibu ed only 3% (A woli, e al., 2023). Ye
i is no jus o mo al easons ha he highly indus ialized na ions should be conce ned o
A ica. The acu e and ch onic impac s o he clima e c isis c ea e p oblems like po e y,
3
in ec ious disease, o ced mig a ion, and con lic in A ica ha sp ead h ough globalised
sys ems. This knock-on e ec impac s all coun ies, including hose o he Eu opean Union
(EU) (A woli, e al., 2023).
G aph 1: numbe o in-coun y e ugees caused by na u al disas e s
Sou ce: Raihan, 2023
Decades o delay ha e denied he wo ld any hope o an easy and g adual ansi ion o a mo e
sus ainable economy. Mo e han 40 % o cumula i e CO2 emissions ha e occu ed since
1990, when he IPCC published i s i s s udy on he dange ous consequences o unchecked
wa ming. Go e nmen s con inue o subsidise he use o ossil uels, and banks and
co po a ions in es a mo e in pollu ing indus ies han in clima e solu ions. The
consump ion habi s o he iches 10 % o people gene a e h ee imes mo e pollu ion han
hose o he poo es 50 %, acco ding o he epo (Kaplan, 2023).
G aph 2: Pe capi a g eenhouse gas emissions (selec ed) in A ica, China, he EU and USA
Sou ce: Ou Wo ld in Da a based on he Global Ca bon P ojec ; C i chley, W, e al. 2023
4
The e o e, U.N. Sec e a y-Gene al An ónio Gu e es demanded ha ich coun ies ha e a
esponsibili y o ac as e han hei low-income coun e pa s, wi h he de eloping wo ld
al eady su e ing disp opo iona ely om clima e disas e s. He u ged he Uni ed S a es o
elimina e ca bon emissions by 2040, i.e. a decade ea lie han he es o he wo ld. Also,
eme ging economies like China and India, which plan o each ne ze o emissions in 2060 and
2070, espec i ely, should has en hei emissions-cu ing e o s alongside de eloped na ions
(Kaplan, 2023). Ch is ophe T isos, di ec o o he Clima e Risk Lab in he A ican Clima e
and De elopmen Ini ia i e a he Uni e si y o Cape Town, emphasised ha i 's no jus he
way we p oduce and use ene gy, bu also he way we consume ood, he way we p o ec
na u e, ha we need o a e disas e . I 's like e e y hing, e e ywhe e, all a once. Las , bu
no leas , ackling clima e change can help o add ess global inequali ies, and ice e sa
(Kaplan, 2023).
Sus ainable land managemen o small-scale a me s in Sub-Saha an A ica could mi iga e
clima e change. Land is bo h a sou ce and a sink o ca bon dioxide (CO2), he chie
g eenhouse gas. Abou 50 % o human CO2 emissions a e abso bed by plan s on land and in
he oceans. The highes CO2 mixing a ios a e seen in he No he n Hemisphe e du ing he
win e mon hs. As plan s s a o g ow again in he sp ing, massi e amoun s o ca bon a e
pulled ou o he a mosphe e, bu no qui e enough o o se he inc ease om human
emissions. The CO2 eleased in he No h mixes wi h ai in he Sou he n Hemisphe e, bu his
in e -hemisphe ic mixing can ake abou a yea (Global Emissions, 2016).
Th ough sus ainable land managemen , i can cap u e ex a CO2 and s o e i as ca bon in
ege a ion and soil. Adap a ion p ac ices include ag o o es y, mulching and ainwa e
ha es ing which con e ecological esilience, and simul aneously help secu e p oduc ion.
This is especially aluable o land use s in SSA who depend on ain ed ag icul u e (C i chley
e al. 2023).
G aph 3: A model o he beha iou o CO2 in he a mosphe e, 2014/15
Sou ce: © NASA. C edi : NASA; Global Emissions, 2016
None heless, mos coun ies a e eluc an o phase ou na u al gas, mine al oil and coal.
Coun ies, including hose in sub-Saha an A ica, ha e ocused hei capaci ies on imp o ing
economic g ow h, wi h li le a en ion o he associa ed ex e nali ies in e ms o en i onmen al
quali y (Gyame ah & Gil-Alana, 2022). In 2022 o example, China app o ed i s la ges
expansion o coal- i ed powe plan s since 2015. In Ma ch 2023, he U.S. go e nmen
5
endo sed a new A c ic d illing p ojec , he Willow p ojec , ha is expec ed o p oduce oil o
he nex 30 yea s. Wi h p o i s soa ing, big oil companies a e scaling back hei clean ene gy
ini ia i es and deepening hei in es men s in ossil uels also in Sub-Saha an A ica (ASS)
(Kohne , 2023; Kaplan, 2023). China's coal-based s eel sec o accoun ed o mo e emissions
han he o al emissions o he UK, Ge many and Tu key combined. Meanwhile, China seeks
o cu ca bon emissions by swi ching om coal o gas. While LNG is cleane han coal, i also
p oduces g eenhouse gases ha con ibu e o global wa ming. Indus y and many
go e nmen s a gue ha LNG is a ‘b idge uel’ be ween coal and enewables such as wind and
sola . China is likely o domina e he g ow h in demand o LNG in he cu en decade,
acco ding o o ecas s made by he mul ina ional oil company Shell in Feb ua y 2024. LNG
con inued also o play a i al ole in Eu opean ene gy secu i y in 2023, ollowing a slump in
Russian pipeline expo s o Eu ope (AFP, 2024).
In 2022, he 27 h UN Clima e Change Con e ence (COP27) es ablished a Loss and Damage
Fund o espond o he human cos o clima e change, whe eby coun ies esponsible o high
ca bon emissions will compensa e ulne able coun ies su e ing om clima e impac s. I is a
esponse o clima e injus ice and clima e deb , owed by he ich coun ies o he poo ,
excluded om heal h ca e, and li ing in agile and con lic -a ec ed s a es, no ably in SSA
(Wyns, 2022). The Fund was expec ed o become ope a ional by he COP28 in Decembe
2023. Howe e , he global solida i y gap s ill hinde s an adequa e esponse o clima e change.
The es ablishmen o he und does no necessa ily ansla e in o clima e inance
commi men s, wi h he poo p og ess in deli e ing he p omised US$100 billion in annual
clima e unding om weal hy na ions. Exis ing clima e inance ins i u ions, such as he G een
Clima e Fund, es ablished in 2010, and he Adap a ion Fund, launched in 2007, had
elabo a ed applica ion p ocesses, and ook yea s o dis ibu e unds. They o en s uggle o
each local communi ies and he mos ulne able (Wyns, 2022). As o possible sou ces o
unding, i has been p oposed o emo e ossil uel subsidies and o ax ossil uel and o he
ca bon-in ensi e indus ies ha a e making exo bi an p o i s. This would gene a e ens o
billions o dolla s o he und om he pollu e s esponsible o he losses and damage
(Wyns, 2022).
G aph 4: The global ca bon budge , 2012 - 2021
How do human CO2 emissions compa e o na u al CO2 emissions?
Sou ce: Mason, 2023
Signi ican changes in he pos -Cold Wa e a led BRICS membe s a es like B azil, India,
China and Sou h A ica o change hei ideological amewo k, eposi ion hemsel es on he
in e na ional s age, ecognise new esponsibili ies and ind common g ound in he un-up o
6
he Copenhagen UN clima e con e ence in 2009. The BRICS coun ies unde wen a p ocess
o con e gence ha b ough hem close o Russia, whose posi ion called on majo de eloping
coun ies o ake conc e e ac ion o educe emissions. This p ocess o con e gence ma ked he
beginning o he u u e BRICS pa ne ship on clima e change (Kıp ızlı & Kös em, 2023).
The eigh coun ies wi h he highes cumula i e ne emissions om land use, land use change
and o es y (LULUCF), a key componen o he global ca bon cycle, a e ei he loca ed in
ca bon- ich, o es ed opical egions (B azil, DR Congo, Indonesia and Nige ia) and/o co e
la ge a eas (B azil, Canada, China, India and Russia). Ne LULUCF emissions a e highes (in
descending o de ) in B azil, Canada, China, DR Congo, India, Indonesia, Nige ia and Russia,
based on cumula i e es ima es be ween 1950 and 2021 (Obe meie e al, 2024). The
di e ences a e la ges in B azil, China, DR Congo and Nige ia. These op eigh emi e s
accoun ed o mo e han abou 53 % o o al ne LULUCF emissions in he pe iod 1950-
2021. They a e he e o e o pa amoun impo ance o mi iga ing clima e change h ough
LULUCF emission educ ions. Du ing he second hal o he 20 h cen u y, high-ne LULUCF
ho spo s became inc easingly concen a ed in coun ies o he Global Sou h. Mo e han 50 %
o ecen ne emissions om LULUCF occu ed in jus h ee coun ies, B azil, DR Congo and
Indonesia, all in he opics. Mo eo e , he a ailabili y o cheap ossil uels can be he d i ing
o ce behind a coun y's highe consump ion, as in Nige ia. Appa en ly, he e exis s a one-
way causali y om ene gy consump ion o ca bon emissions, uling ou he alidi y o he
conse a ion hypo hesis in hese economies. This could be a consequence o he egion's
hea y eliance on non- enewable ene gy consump ion (Lawal, 2023). The p oblem may be
mo e p onounced in de eloping coun ies, which a e ying o accele a e hei economic
g ow h o o e come po e y while paying li le a en ion o en i onmen al conce ns. The
g ea e ulne abili y o SSA coun ies o ene gy p ice shocks and in e up ions in supply can
inc ease hei eliance on pollu ing ene gy sou ces such as oil, gas and coal and cause hei
pollu ion o g ow (Kouyakhi, 2023).
O he hings being equal, in ensi e a ming migh media e he adia i e balance be ween
g eenhouse gas emissions and soil ca bon seques a ion, e.g. in he con o e sial maize
c opping sys ems o SSA (Zheng e al., 2023). Ne e heless, in ensi e a ming emains he
p ima y d i e o he leaching o soil and he collapse in biodi e si y. Howe e , analyses
ound ha ni ogen applica ion educed soil o ganic ca bon (SOC) loss, likely h ough
inc eased biomass yield and consequen ly belowg ound ca bon alloca ion. Residue e u n
swi ched he di ec ion o SOC change om loss o gain. Such a bene i (SOC seques a ion)
was no comp omised by negligible CH4 emissions no ou weighed by he ampli ied N2O
emissions. O e all, i con ibu ed o nega i e ne global wa ming po en ial (GWP) (Zheng e
al., 2023).
Simila ly, g eenhouse gas (GHG) emissions om li es ock p oduc ion, which a e esponsible
o abou 4% o global GHG emissions h ough me hane p oduc ion o animal ag icul u e
(compa ed o an ini ial FAO es ima e o 18%), could be educed h ough b eeding, and SSA
is no excep ion. Fo example, o al GHG emissions di ec ly ela ed o li es ock p oduc ion in
sou he n A ica did no inc ease o e 20 yea s, while he in ensi y o li es ock- ela ed GHG
emissions (pe kg o li es ock p oduc ) dec eased by 40 % (Schol z e al., 2023).
On he o he hand, an inc ease in clima e change (CO2 emissions) will lead o a signi ican
educ ion in ood p oduc ion in SSA. This means ha clima e change appea s o ha e
con ibu ed signi ican ly o he ood insecu i y challenges in he egion. Th ough changes in
a e age empe a u e and ain all pa e ns, clima e change could exace ba e exis ing h ea s
and p oblems ela ed o ood p oduc ion in he SSA egion (Fisayo & Oke & Fajingbesi,
2023).
7
In gene al, ecen esea ch on sec o al alue chains and en i onmen al pollu ion in A ica
based on panel da a o 40 A ican coun ies om 1990 o 2019, showed ha deepening he
ag icul u e, indus y and se ices sec o s’ alue chains pa icipa ion inc eased he
en i onmen al pollu ion in A ica. The U-in e ed hypo hesis be ween alue chain
pa icipa ion and en i onmen al pollu ion was e i ied in all conside ed sec o s (Essossinam
& Gniniguè & Awade, 2023).
Ye , mos o he emissions o de eloping coun ies a e embodied in in e na ional ade and a e
caused by consump ion in indus ialised egions such as Eu ope, he Uni ed S a es and China.
The la ge numbe o ne emi ing coun ies s ands in s a k con as o he pledges made o
mee he a ge s associa ed wi h he Pa is Ag eemen (Obe meie e al, 2024).
G aph 5: Pe capi a p ima y ene gy consump ion o mode n o ms o ene gy
by global egion (1970 and 2019, including SSA (Wo ld Bank, 2020)
Sou ce: Nwankwo & Olaniyi & Mo gan,2023
S eng hening ins i u ions p omises c.p. o educe CO2 emissions. Ins i u ional quali y
a iables o con ol o co up ion, ule o law, egula o y quali y, poli ical s abili y and
absence o iolence, oice and accoun abili y, and go e nmen e ec i eness educe CO2
emissions (Kwakwa, 2023). I esolu e ins i u ional go e nance h ough weake ule o law
induces pollu ion, while con ol o co up ion heo e ically wo ks agains pollu ion le els.
Howe e , co up ion is endemic especially in SSA, acco ding o he Co up ion Pe cep ions
Index. The oice o accoun abili y, o example h ough ci il socie y ac i is s, could suppo
he pollu ion- educing e ec o poli ical go e nance. Howe e , i has a signi ican desi able
impac on pollu ion only in he G7 coun ies. Finally, enewable ene gy implemen a ion and
ade libe alisa ion ha e a nega i e and posi i e impac on en i onmen al deg ada ion,
espec i ely (O o i e al., 2023).
The analysis o Fo eign di ec in es men (FDI) in de eloping coun ies, including SSA,
con i ms he pollu ion ha en hypo hesis, i.e. ha mul ina ional co po a ions (MNCs) look o
he cheapes op ion in e ms o esou ces and labou ha a coun y o e s. Thus, he impac o
FDI ends o inc ease en i onmen al deg ada ion (Gao e al., 2023). Also, esou ce-backed
lending o pu chasing coun ies like China, which many A ican esou ce- ich coun ies a e
nowadays using as an e ec i e means o p o iding public goods and se ices, can unde mine
en i onmen al sus ainabili y (e.g. o es co e loss, CO2 emissions, pollu ion, ecological
collapse, ma e ial oo p in , e c.).
8
O he s udies in SSA suppo ed he Pollu ion-Ha en hypo hesis and he en i onmen al
Kuzne s ‘in e ed U-shaped’ cu e hypo hesis in he egion. They con i med a long- un
ela ionship be ween he inancial sec o , economic ac i i y, and CO2 emissions, wi h ossil
uel consump ion in indus ial ac i i ies inc easing CO2 emissions by abou 2.5 imes (Aminu
& Cli on & Mahe, 2023). The e o e, a e y s ong compensa ion mechanism, such as
in oducing ca bon- axes o e o ming he cu en ax sys em in esou ce-backed loan
ag eemen s, o p o ec biodi e si y and mi iga e he en i onmen al impac s o hese loans
would be equi ed (Coulibaly, 2023).
Finally, u banisa ion is ound o be esponsible o exace ba ing en i onmen al p oblems by
u he inc easing ca bon emissions (Gao e al., 2023; Abdulqadi , 2023). Bo h openness o
ade and u banisa ion a e ound o ha e a signi ican nega i e impac on he le el o
enewable ene gy use in SSA, while he impac o esou ce en on he le el o enewable
ene gy use is insigni ican . Con e sely, an inc ease in income le els associa ed wi h highe
FDI was ound o ha e a signi ican posi i e e ec on enewable ene gy use. This implies ha
po e y educ ion and o eign capi al in lows can signi ican ly boos he adop ion and use o
enewable ene gy in SSA (Ding u e al., 2023).
The ollowing is an analysis o he impac o indus ialised coun ies' CO2 emissions on
clima e change in sub-Saha an A ica, using he example o h ee coun ies ha a e among he
en la ges economies in he egion, and aking in o accoun he impac on he social and
economic ab ic o he A ican socie ies conce ned.
2. Case s udies om Sub-Saha an A ica:
Sou h A ica, Nige ia and he DR Congo
Ca oon 3: A ican Clima e Summi , 2023: ano he big e en , and hen wha ?
3
Sou ce: © Damien Glez, Jeune A ique, 4 Sep embe 2023
The e is a global call o a ansi ion om ossil uels o enewable ene gy o mi iga e clima e
change. Acco ding o he in e na ional schola ly discussion his call is mainly championed by
he Global No h, which has de eloped i s economies using ossil uels and s ill emi s much
mo e han he Global Sou h (Nwankwo & Olaniyi & Mo gan, 2023). Fo a jus ansi ion,
whe e he ansi ion p ocess is ai and does no cause unnecessa y ha dship o a popula ion,
he complexi ies o he p ocess in oil and gas- ich sub-Saha an A ican coun ies such as
3
Re e ing o he i s in e na ional 'A ican Clima e Summi ' in Nai obi, 4-6 Sep embe 2023 (jus be o e
COP28 in Dubai in Decembe 2023), esul ing in ano he 'Nai obi Decla a ion':– T ansla ion o balloon: “Supe ,
clouds ( ha will b ing ain) … bu no, jus speeches”.
15
Ca oon 7: Loading... he Nige Del a's global ime bomb!
7
Sou ce: © F ancis Odupu e, ca oonmo emen .com (clipping, 2023)
Se e al p o-en i onmen al g oups ha e eme ged h oughou he Nige Del a, hi he o elying
hea ily on local, g ass oo s campaigns and adi ional media o hold he Nige ian go e nmen ,
oil companies and o he pollu e s accoun able o en i onmen al p o ec ion and
en i onmen al sus ainabili y. Recen ly, new social media pla o ms ha e p o ided iable
al e na i e s uc u es o en i onmen al ac i ism and ad ocacy in he egion, including he
use o a in ad ocacy messaging and public awa eness. The success ul use o image y and
ca oons o ansla e he signi ying inep i ude and co up ion o go e nmen in en i onmen al
egula ion unde sco es i s use ulness and impac (Zibima & Jack, 2020). Among o he s, he
S op he Soo campaign has become a wa e shed in he eme gence o a new o m o ad ocacy
ha uses new media and he isual a s o demand en i onmen al change and accoun abili y.
I has a ac ed he a en ion o no only he Nige ian go e nmen bu also membe s o he
in e na ional communi y such as he Uni ed Na ions and he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion
(Zibima & Jack, 2020).
Ca oon 8: Anima ion o B ibe y o Regula o s by Pollu e s
Sou ce: © Zibima & Jack, 2020
7
F ancis Odupu e is a Nige ian isual a is and jou nalis . He has won in e na ional media awa ds h ough his
edi o ial ca oon s o ies and epo s. He is he ounde and CEO o A ican P ess Ca oon, a media and
edu ainmen s a -up in Benin Ci y, Edo S a e, Nige ia. (F ancis Odupu e, Bio (exce p ), ca oonmo emen .com,
accessed: 5 Decembe 2023).
16
In 2023, he Nige ian go e nmen , wi h signi ican echnical assis ance om USAID’s
p og am ‘Powe A ica’, announced 42 winning bidde s o i s Gas Fla e Comme cialisa ion
P og amme, an inno a i e auc ion p og amme designed o educe he en i onmen ally
damaging p ac ice o gas la ing. Acco ding o USAID's conse a i e calcula ions, hese 48
si es la e 2.6 o 3.1 billion cubic me e s o gas pe day, 48 % o 58 % o Nige ia's o al la ed
gas emissions as epo ed by he Wo ld Bank. Cap u ing his gas and using i o eplace o he
uels, e.g. o powe gene a ion, anspo a ion and o he indus ial pu poses, could educe
Nige ia's ca bon emissions by 5 o 6 million me ic ons o CO2 pe yea (Relie web 2023).
Also, Nige ia has he highes a e o de o es a ion in he wo ld, losing 3.7 % o i s o es e e y
yea . I is also home o A ica’s la ges mang o e o es , bu only 6 % is p o ec ed. I s
mul iple ecological zones ha e gi en ise o a wide ange o li elihoods, ag icul u al
p ac ices, and commodi ies, all o which a e a ec ed by clima e change and shocks. Rising
sea le els h ea en he big sou he n ci ies such as Lagos and coas al a eas, inc easing
ulne abili y o looding and wa e bo ne disease. D ough and educed ain all, combined
wi h ising ai empe a u es, inhibi he coun y’s hyd opowe sys ems and hinde ag icul u al
p oduc ion and ishing, educing ood secu i y and nega i ely impac ing heal h and nu i ion
(Relie web 2023).
Clima e change a ec s ce ain g oups o people mo e han o he s, depending on whe e hey
li e and hei abili y o cope wi h di e en clima e haza ds. People li ing in u al a eas a e
pa icula ly ulne able o clima e change because o hei emo eness, hei high dependence
on na u al esou ces o income and li elihoods, and hei limi ed capaci y o adap o clima e
change (Igna ius, 2016). The e is signi ican spa ial a ia ion in ulne abili y ac oss
geopoli ical zones o Nige ia, wi h no he n s a es being mo e ulne able due o bo h highe
le els o u ali y and lowe adap i e capaci y. The No h-Wes zone is he mos ulne able
wi h an a e age index o 2.91, ollowed by he No h-Eas (3.71) and No h-Cen al (7.55).
On he o he hand, he Sou h-Wes geopoli ical zone is he leas ulne able wi h an index o
11.89, ollowed by he Sou h-Eas (10.08) and Sou h-Sou h. (Igna ius, 2016).
G aph 9: Pa e ns o clima e change ulne abili y in Nige ia
Sou ce: Igna ius, 2016
17
Mo eo e , he e exis s an inc easing isk o d ough and looding because o clima e change
in Nige ia (Du odola, 2022). In he No he n pa , he wind e osion ha has swep away
houses and a ms has in ensi ied he e ec s o de o es a ion, d ough , o e -g azing, and
dese i ica ion. In many o he owns along he Sahelian zones, he clima e c isis is unleashing
inc easing dese i ica ion. In he Sou he n egion, lash and seasonal looding caused by
clima e change a e uining ci ies. In Augus 2011, Ibadan, one o Nige ia’s populous ci ies,
wi nessed his o ic looding caused by an all- ime high o 187.5mm ain all and indisc imina e
dumping o solid was es on wa e channels. In he end, mo e han a housand people died and
millions o nai a wo h o p ope y was des oyed. In 2021, Jigawa, Bauchi and Adamawa
s a es in he No h-Eas egion o Nige ia we e also inunda ed by lood which e ic ed o e
380 households and le mo e han 20 people dead (Du odola, 2022).
The loods in Nige ia in 2022 a ec ed many pa s o he coun y. Acco ding o he ede al
go e nmen , he loods had displaced mo e han 1.4 million people, killed mo e han 603
people and inju ed mo e han 2,400 people. Abou 82,035 houses we e damaged and 332,327
hec a es o land we e a ec ed (Ogun ola, 2022). Acco ding o he Na ional Eme gency
Agency (NEMA), looding displaced mo e han hal a million people in 2022 (Du odola,
2022). The Nige ian Me ological Agency (NiMe ) no ed in i s Sep embe 2022 looding
ou look ha places ha a e along he cou se o he Nige Ri e and Benue Ri e ha e highe
chances o expe iencing looding due o hei p esen s a us. La gely caused by he elease o
excess wa e om he Lagdo dam ese oi in Came oon on Sep embe 2022, and o en ial
ain all in he No h-Eas , No h-Cen al and Pa s o Sou h-Eas e n pa o Nige ia, his
looding has pu s a es along he cou se o Ri e Nige and Benue a an ele a ed isk o
looding. The si ua ion u he de e io a ed wi h he wa e o displacemen and humani a ian
c isis in he c isis- idden no heas Nige ia, ma ked by he Islamis Boko Ha am insu gency.
Acco ding o he In e na ional O ganiza ion o Mig a ion (IOM), he e was an u gen need
o humani a ian assis ance as o e 15,000 in e nally displaced pe sons sc ambled o shel e
a e hei camps we e des oyed by looding (Du odola, 2022). Economically, looding
esul ed in acu e ood sho age. Fo example, Olam Fa m, a $140 million in es men and
Nige ia’s la ges a mland o a ound 10,000 hec a es in Nasa awa, was sub e ed by he
looding, he a m's 57 km dykes we e b oken he eby subme ging he 4,400 hec a e o ice
on he a m (Du odola, 2022).
G aph 10: S a es a isk o looding in Nige ia
Sou ce: Du odola, 2022
Small and medium-scale a me s we e especially a ec ed by looding. In Benue S a e, he
ood baske o he na ion, a me s we e deplo ing he loss o hei p oduce and we e calling
18
o go e nmen suppo . In Adamawa, ano he s a e along he cou se o he Benue Ri e ,
27,800 households and 89,342 hec a es o a mlands we e a ec ed by he lood in 2022. Also,
in Anamb a, he numbe o lood ic ims was inc easing daily as he looding expanded o
mo e communi ies in he sou h-eas e n s a e (Du odola, 2022).
Al hough he coun y was s ill slowly eco e ing om he e ec s o he 2022 loods, he
Na ional Eme gency Managemen Agency (NEMA) wa ned in Oc obe 2023 ha he coun y
was a isk o se e e looding in 2023 due o hea y ain all. I s a ed ha abou 171,545
people had been displaced as a esul o widesp ead looding in pa s o he coun y
(Abdullahi, 2023). The NEMA said, o e 33,000 people we e a ec ed by he lood disas e in
di e en pa s o he coun y, while he Nige ian Hyd ological Se ices Agency (NIHSA), in
i s p edic ion o he annual lood ou look o 2023, said 178 Local Go e nmen A eas (LGAs)
in 32 s a es, including he Fede al Capi al Te i o y (FCT), we e wi hin he highly p obable
lood isk a eas, adding ha o e 30 million ac es o land a ea would be washed away by he
lood in 2023. The o ecas showed ha looding in 2023 could be wo se han in 2022
(Abdullahi, 2023).
Las bu no leas , clima e change has exace ba ed a gene a ion-long and inc easingly iolen
con lic be ween Fulani he dsmen and local a me s in Nige ia, like he 2023 Pla eau S a e
massac es. In Feb ua y 2024, he Nige ia In e - eligious Council (NIREC), unde he join
leade ship o he Sul an o Soko o, Alhaji Sa’ad Abubaka , and he P esiden o he Ch is ian
Associa ion o Nige ia (CAN), Re . Samson Ayokunle, wa ned ha al hough i was clea ha
o he issues con ibu ed o he clashes be ween he dsmen and a me s, a high pe cen age o
he menace had o do wi h poo ege a ion caused by global wa ming (Jannamike, 2024).
Ca oon 10: Nige ian he de s- a me s c ises linked o clima e change
Sou ce: © Jannamike, 2024
The Na ional Council on Clima e Change, es ablished in 2021 by he Nige ia Clima e Change
Ac , wo ks o mains eam clima e change ac ions and achie e low GHG objec i es. Nige ia's
Na ional Adap a ion Plan F amewo k (2020) a icula es Nige ia's adap a ion objec i es and
p inciples ha guide hese adap a ion ac ions and acili a e he implemen a ion o p io i y
adap a ion ac i i ies. The Nige ia Ene gy T ansi ion Plan ou lines Nige ia's commi men o
ca bon neu ali y by 2060 ac oss 5 key sec o s: powe , cooking, oil and gas, anspo and
indus y (USAID, 2023).
In 2021, Abuja upda ed i s Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ion (NDC) o he Uni ed Na ions
F amewo k Con en ion on Clima e Change (UNFCCC) Pa is Ag eemen , which es ablishes
an uncondi ional con ibu ion a ge o educing g eenhouse gas emission (GHG) educ ion by
20 % below he business-as-usual emissions scena io by 2030, and a condi ional a ge o
19
47% GHG emission educ ion below 2018 emissions le els con ingen on in e na ional
suppo (Relie web 2023). Howe e , Nige ia's Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ions (NDCs)
o he UNFCCC ha e no esul ed in a posi i e commi men o achie e ne -ze o emissions by
2060 (Salihu & Musa & Ubachukwu &Mshelia, 2023).
Ca oon 11: P esiden ial candida e, Bola Tinubu, 2022 on clima e change:
‘I ’s a ques ion o how do you p e en a chu ch a om ea ing poisoned holy communion’.
Sou ce: © Mike Asukwo; Fasan, 2022; Business Day, 31 Oc obe 2022
The Nige ian P esiden Bola Tinubu pu he dilemma in a nu shell in 2022, hen s ill
p esiden ial candida e: "I ’s a ques ion o how do you p e en a chu ch a om ea ing
poisoned holy communion". Ob iously, he 'chu ch a ' in his analogy is Nige ia, which is 'as
poo as a chu ch a ', and he 'poisoned holy communion' is clima e change, caused by bu ning
ossil uels, which may ha e immedia e bene i s bu also come wi h de as a ing
consequences. The e o e, acco ding o Tinubu's logic, Wes e n indus ialised coun ies would
ha e no choice bu o succumb o Nige ia's h ea and help i educe i s g eenhouse gas
emissions since hey oo a e su e ing om global clima e change (Fasan, 2022). Howe e ,
no e e y poo A ican coun y chooses o li e wi h clima e change. Fo ins ance, Kenya is
poo e han Nige ia, wi h a GDP o US$ 98bn (2020), compa ed o Nige ia's US$ 432.3bn
(2020) and a GDP pe capi a o US$ 1,550 (2020), compa ed o Nige ia's US$ 2,097 (2020).
Ne e heless, Kenya has made eal p og ess on clima e change. I has se a a ge o 100%
enewable ene gy gene a ion and is close o achie ing i because i has made ackling clima e
change a p io i y (Fasan, 2022).
20
2.3 Clima e change in he DR Congo
Ca oon 12: Rising wa e s o he Congo, which sain should we honou ?
8
The go e nmen decla ed a s a e o hyd ological ecological disas e
Sou ce: © Kash/Ac uali e.cd; Kinshasa, 18 Janua y 2024
The Congo Basin is, nex o he Amazonas, he second la ges ain o es a ea wo ldwide. The
DR Congo (DRC; 1971–1997 Zai e), is he second la ges coun y on he A ican con inen ,
wi h an a ea equal o he ex en o Wes e n Eu ope. I is home o wo- hi ds o he opical
o es s o Cen al A ica, i.e. 150 million hec a es o o es , en pe cen o he wo ld's o es
ha co e s mo e han 60 % o he coun y's land a ea. The e o e, Congo's nickname, 'lungs o
A ica', e lec s i s c ucial ole in he global clima e balance (Hund, 2015).
The majo i y o he popula ion su i es hanks o he o es . Bu his is also a majo cause o
de o es a ion. The DRC's economy is la gely dependen on ain- ed ag icul u e and mining,
bo h o which a e ulne able o clima e a iabili y and change. Ag icul u e accoun s o 40 %
o he na ional g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) and is he p ima y sou ce o li elihood o mos
Congolese, employing 70 % o he coun y's popula ion (USAID, 2023b). Clima e change
impac s impe il ag icul u al li elihoods o millions o Congolese and inc ease he isks o
his impo an d i e o economic g ow h in he DRC. P ojec ed inc eases in empe a u e,
mo e ex eme wea he e en s and changes in o al p ecipi a ion and ain all a iabili y a e
likely o exace ba e social ulne abili y, ood insecu i y, high po e y a es and poli ical
ins abili y. Since 2010, de o es a ion in he DRC has inc eased signi ican ly and was second
highes in de o es a ion only o B azil in 2020 (USAID, 2023b).
I is no p ima ily comme cial o indus ial de o es a ion, bu uncon olled de o es a ion by
he popula ion. The easons o his, and he challenges i poses, each deep in o he social and
economic ab ic o local socie ies. As a as he ain o es is conce ned, he go e nmen 's
de as a ing de elopmen policies o e he decades ha e been bo h a blessing and a cu se.
Indus ially, mainly o in e na ional ade, 'jus ' 300,000 o 450,000 hec a es a e cu down
annually. This is due in pa o he high in es men isk o p i a e companies, bu abo e all o
he dilapida ed in as uc u e, which makes he o es i ually inaccessible (Hund, 2015).
8
T ansla ion o Ballon: " Al eady en days we a e looded! Do some hing!! ...hence o h he P esiden o he
Ri e B igade is esponsible! ...Do you wan hei phone numbe ?”- The ca oon e e s o a de as a ing lood o
he Congo Ri e in ea ly Janua y 2024, hi ing he capi al Kinshasa, and p o inces such as Tshopo, Mongala,
Kongo cen al, Equa eu , Mai-Ndombe, Sud and No d Ubangi, Kasai, Kasai Cen al, Sud-Ki u, Lomami,
Tshuapa, and Kwilu. On 12 Janua y 2024, he go e nmen decla ed a s a e o hyd ological ecological disas e
(Ac uali e.cd, 2024).
21
G aph 11: Congo Basin o es , use & ege a ion ypes
Sou ce: Ve heggen & Mayaux & C. Wasseige & De ou ny, 2012
The loss may seem low compa ed o he Amazon basin, whe e in B azil, o example, an
a e age o mo e han one million hec a es we e cu down pe yea be ween 2000 and 2010.
Ne e heless, he sh inking o he Congolese ain o es is se ious and should be s opped as
soon as possible.
The bigges h ea is he popula ion o he Congolese hemsel es. De o es a ion inc eases in
di ec p opo ion o popula ion g ow h. Mos o he cu ing is illegal because he popula ion is
despe a e o ood and ene gy. They ha e no choice i hey wan o su i e. As a esul ,
en i onmen al awa eness is almos non-exis en . The need o ag icul u al land is he main
cause o cu ing (60%), bu also he local p oduc ion o cha coal as an ene gy sou ce (20%).
The millions o poo people li ing in he ci ies (Kinshasa, Mbuji-Mayi, Lubumbashi,
22
Kisangani), which a e expe iencing apid u banisa ion, a e pa icula ly a ec ed. They ha e o
eed hemsel es, which equi es mo e and mo e cha coal o cooking, as he elec ici y supply
o hem is insu icien o non-exis en (Hund, 2015).
Ne e heless, o decades he DRC was he coun y ha emi ed he leas CO2 in o he
a mosphe e pe capi a. In e ms o CO2 emissions pe $1,000 o GDP, which measu es
‘en i onmen al e iciency’, he coun y emi ed 0.03 kilog ams pe $1,000 o GDP. In sho ,
he DRC is one o he leas pollu ing coun ies pe $1,000 o GDP. Howe e , CO2 emissions,
which ha e been alling since 2011, as well as emissions pe capi a and CO2 emissions pe
$1,000 o GDP, ha e inc eased o e he las i e yea s, which is no good news (ce, 2020).
G aph 12: DR Congo – CO2 emissions, 1980 – 2020
Sou ce: ce, 2020
Acco ding o ecen analyses o he indus ialisa ion o he DRC in he pe iod 1980 o 2020,
he e a e asymme ic e ec s o manu ac u ing-based indus ialisa ion on clima e change in he
sho e m (Onounga & E siba & Sah, 2023). On he o he hand, in he long e m, he impac
o indus ialisa ion on clima e change in he Republic o Congo is symme ic. Tha is,
indus ializa ion and deindus ializa ion would posi i ely in luence CO2 emissions om he
manu ac u ing sec o in he long e m which would con adic he En i onmen al Kuzne s
Cu e (EKC) hypo hesis.
G aph 13: Emissions in k CO2 om 2000 o 2030 o DR Congo:
o al na ional emissions, espec i ely emissions om land use (LU) and hei educ ion sha es
9
Sou ce: Ha gi a & Rü e , 2015
9
Sou ce: Taken and adap ed (25%) om DR Congo (2015b); Ha gi a & Rü e , 2015 - Re e ing o land use, land
use change, and o es y (LULUCF), business as usual (BAU).
23
Wi h he g owing ecogni ion o he impo ance o opical o es s in he clima e change
deba e, no ably h ough he adop ion o he in e na ional REDD+ (Reducing Emissions om
De o es a ion and Fo es Deg ada ion) ini ia i e, he igh agains de o es a ion has become a
lei mo i o o es policy ac o s in he DRC, a leas e bally and p o o ma (Mudibu, 2023).
The DRC a i ied he Uni ed Na ions F amewo k Con en ion on Clima e Change in 1997, he
Kyo o P o ocol in 2005 and he Pa is Ag eemen in 2015. The DRC's Na ional Adap ion Plan
o Clima e Change (NDC), upda ed in Oc obe 2021, commi s o a 21 % educ ion in
emissions om 2021 o 2030, o which 19 % will be achie ed wi h ex e nal suppo and 2 %
will be based on domes ic e o s. This equa es o an es ima ed educ ion o up o 650 onnes
o CO2 by 2030. The NDC iden i ied ene gy, ag icul u e, o es y and o he land use and
was e as p io i y sec o s o GHG mi iga ion and 52 p io i y adap a ion ac ions. The coun y's
Na ional Ac ion P og amme o Adap a ion o Clima e Change (NAPA, 2006) and NDC
iden i ied u gen and p io i y adap a ion ac ions in he wa e esou ces, o es y and
ag icul u e sec o s, as well as in he coun y's coas al zones. The DRC's NDC budge is
es ima ed a 48.68 billion US dolla s (USD), o which 25.60 billion USD is o he
implemen a ion o commi ed mi iga ion ini ia i es and 23.08 billion USD is o p io i y
adap a ion ac ions (USAID, 2023b).
In e na ional o ganisa ions and ansna ional conse a ion NGOs ied o employ powe
s a egies, including inancial incen i es, dominan in o ma ion and o es policy expe ise, o
impose ‘good go e nance’ in he Congolese o es y sec o s. Howe e , hei a emp s ha e
been coun e ed by he skil ul s a egies o domes ic decision-make s and poli ical eli es who
wan ed he ‘undesi ed’ o es policy e o ms o lose so ha hei p i a e in e es s and hei
‘ques o so e eign y’ could p e ail, bo h o mally and in o mally. The esul ing poli ical
i al ies wo sened he go e nance c isis and he ela ed policy ailu es (Mudibu, 2023).
The in e en ion o in e na ional o ganisa ions, especially he Wo ld Bank, some imes led o
symbolic policy changes, al hough o en e e sible, in he o es y sec o . The go e nance
c isis ha has plagued he DRC o es sec o since he 1980s, has no been o e come by he
in usi e 'good go e nance' in e en ions. The linge ing ongoing c isis in he o es y sec o is
he esul o se e al o ms o opposi ion by s a e bu eauc acies and poli ical eli es (Mudibu,
2023).
Ca oon 13: DRC: in Washing on, Félix Tshisekedi becomes a clima e champion
10
Sou ce: © Damien Glez; Glez, 2022a, Jeune A ique, 15 Decembe 2022
10
T ansla ion o balloon:” Finally, in A ica, do you ha e oo much o oo li le wa e ? … Bo h … depending on
he coun y? … in he same coun y …”.
24
In 2021, Congo’s P esiden Félix Tshisekedi and B i ish P ime Minis e Bo is Johnson on
behal o he Cen al A ican Fo es Ini ia i e (CAFI) endo sed an ambi ious 10-yea
ag eemen (2021-31) o p o ec he Congo Basin ain o es . The ag eemen was mean o
unlock on- he-g ound mul i-dono in es men s o US$500 million o he i s i e yea s
(CAFI, 2021).
In an a emp o cu b ising de o es a ion in he DRC, which has exceeded one million
hec a es pe yea since 2016, and o achie e ca bon neu ali y by 2050, he coun y's
go e nmen in oduced a ca bon ax, a i s in he Congo Basin (PFBC, 2024). While imely,
he imminen ax has been con o e sial, as i would come on op o he pollu ion ax al eady
in place. Ci il socie y says i has no been consul ed, and he p i a e sec o ea s double
axa ion. I also emains unclea how in o mal ac i i ies in sec o s such as subsis ence
ag icul u e, which accoun s o 92.2 % o de o es a ion eco ded be ween 2000 and 2014, o
a isanal mining, which is mos ly illegal, will be axed. Las , bu no leas , he ac ion could
p o e coun e p oduc i e in he long e m, because a ca bon ax on ossil uels would
ine i ably lead o an inc ease in he p ice o pe oleum p oduc s, esul ing in inc eased
dependence o local communi ies on o he sou ces o ene gy like wood (PFBC, 2024;
Kohne , 2024).
Hypo he ically speaking, he DRC has a enewable ene gy po en ial ha could allow i o
di e si y i s ene gy mix. Howe e , he coun y's p og ess owa ds ene gy ansi ion has been
slow due o se e al challenges, including poo go e nance, lack o a sec o al and cohe en
ene gy policy, low go e nmen e iciency, poo egula o y quali y and lack o con ol o e
co up ion (Bu hama Eka, 2023). In addi ion, he e is a poo business clima e, which means
ha he coun y is no a ac i e o in es o s and dono s; a low a e age p opo ion o he
budge alloca ed o ene gy expendi u e; high in es men and p oduc ion cos s compa ed wi h
disposable income; high popula ion g ow h, which means an inc ease in ene gy demand; a
low le el o p oduc ion, despi e a mode a ely high g ow h a e, which means ha he
Congolese popula ion emains poo (mo e han 60%); an almos non-exis en echnology
ans e a e, wi h a low compe i i eness index; and, inally, a lack o specialised aining,
which means ha DR Congo has a low capaci y o ain i s wo k o ce, pa icula ly in he ield
o enewable ene gy (Bu hama Eka, 2023).
31
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mili a isa ion, and economic g ow h in Sou h A ica: E idence om using no el dynamic ARDL
simula ions. Renewable Ene gy, ol. 205, pp. 349-365
Salihu, A.C. & M. Musa & N.N. Ubachukwu & A.M. Mshelia (2023): T end analysis o g eenhouse
gases (GHs) emissions o e Nige ia om 2000-2021. The P oceedings o he In e na ional
Con e ence on Clima e Change, ol. 7 (1), pp. 31–45
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32
Résumé : [L’impac des émissions de CO2 des pays indus ialisés su le changemen clima ique en
A ique subsaha ienne : é udes de cas d’A ique du Sud, du Nige ia e de la RD du Congo] –
L’ac i i é humaine a ans o mé la planè e à un y hme e à une échelle sans p écéden dans
l’his oi e, causan des dommages i é e sibles aux communau és e aux écosys èmes. Les pays on
concen é leu s capaci és su la c oissance économique, a ec peu d’a en ion aux ex e nali és
associées en e mes de quali é en i onnemen ale. Le monde n’é i e a pas un échau emen
ca as ophique à moins que les pays iches n’accélè en leu s p op es éduc ions d’émissions e
n’aiden les pays les plus pau es à ai e de même. L'Amé ique du No d e l'Eu ope on con ibué à
62 % des émissions de dioxyde de ca bone depuis la é olu ion indus ielle, andis que l'A ique
n'en a con ibué qu'à 3 %. Cependan , c’es en A ique subsaha ienne (ASS) que les impac s son
les plus g a es e que les popula ions son les plus ulné ables. Les pays dé eloppés de aien ,
dans leu p op e in é ê , se concen e su les moyens d’aide les pays en dé eloppemen à élimine
p og essi emen les combus ibles ossiles e à passe aux éne gies enou elables. Cependan , des
ensions exis en en e les pays les plus iches e les pays les plus pau es quan à sa oi qui doi
paye les coû s du échau emen clima ique. Les pays iches on la esponsabili é d’agi plus
apidemen que leu s homologues à aible e enu. Pou an , les gou e nemen s con inuen de
sub en ionne l’u ilisa ion des combus ibles ossiles, e les banques e les en ep ises in es issen
enco e bien plus dans les indus ies polluan es que dans les solu ions clima iques. Les habi udes de
consomma ion des 10 % les plus iches génè en ois ois plus de pollu ion que celles des 50 % les
plus pau es. Les économies éme gen es elles que la Chine e l’Inde, qui p é oien d’a eind e zé o
émission ne e d’ici 2060 e 2070 espec i emen , de aien ejoind e le monde dé eloppé pou
accélé e la éduc ion de leu s émissions. Ce n’es pas seulemen la açon don nous p oduisons e
u ilisons l’éne gie qui doi change apidemen . C'es la açon don nous consommons la nou i u e,
la açon don nous p o égeons la na u e. C'es ou , pa ou , à la ois. Le sec eu ag icole es
pa iculiè emen ulné able, en pa iculie dans les pays d’ASS où l’ag icul u e joue un ôle cen al
dans l’économie e la p oduc i i é. Pa mi les hui pays ayan les émissions ne es cumulées les plus
éle ées p o enan de l’ag icul u e, de la o es e ie e d’au es u ilisa ions des e es igu en deux
pays d’ASS, le Nige ia e la République démoc a ique du Congo. La plupa de ces émissions son
inco po ées dans le comme ce e son causées pa la consomma ion dans les égions indus ialisées
comme l'Eu ope, les É a s-Unis e la Chine. Cependan , la c éa ion du Fonds pou les pe es e
dommages con enu lo s de la COP27 ne su i a pas à in e se la endance, e ne se adui a pas
nécessai emen pa des engagemen s en ma iè e de inancemen clima ique, comp e enu de
l'absence de p og ès dans la ou ni u e des 100 millia ds de dolla s de inancemen clima ique
annuel p omis pa les pays iches. Les pays a icains eux-mêmes doi en é léchi à leu s p op es
a ou s e in ensi ie leu s e o s de maniè e oppo une e subs an ielle.
Zusammen assung : [Die Auswi kungen de CO2-Emissionen de Indus iena ionen au den
Klimawandel in Subsaha a-A ika: Falls udien aus Süda ika, Nige ia und de DR Kongo] –
Menschliche Ak i i ä en haben den Plane en in einem in de Geschich e beispiellosen Tempo und
Ausmaß e ände und i e e sible Schäden an Gemeinscha en und Ökosys emen e u sach . Die
Lände haben ih e Kapazi ä en au das Wi scha swachs um konzen ie und dabei den dami
e bundenen ex e nen E ek en im Hinblick au die Umwel quali ä wenig Au me ksamkei
geschenk . Die Wel wi d eine ka as ophale E wä mung nich e meiden können, wenn
wohlhabende Na ionen ih e eigenen Emissions eduzie ungen nich beschleunigen und ä me en
Lände n dabei hel en, dasselbe zu un. No dame ika und Eu opa haben sei de indus iellen
Re olu ion 62 % de Kohlendioxidemissionen e u sach , wäh end A ika nu 3 % bei ug.
Alle dings sind die Auswi kungen in Subsaha a-A ika (SSA) am schwe wiegends en und die
Menschen am s ä ks en ge äh de . Indus ielände soll en sich in ih em eigenen In e esse da au
konzen ie en, En wicklungslände n beim Auss ieg aus ossilen B enns o en und beim Übe gang
zu e neue ba en Ene gien zu hel en. Es gib jedoch Spannungen zwischen eiche en und ä me en
Lände n da übe , we die Kos en de globalen E wä mung agen soll. Reiche Lände haben die
Ve an wo ung, schnelle zu handeln als ih e einkommensschwachen Lände . Dennoch
sub en ionie en Regie ungen wei e hin die Nu zung ossile B enns o e, und Banken und
Un e nehmen in es ie en imme noch wei aus meh in umwel e schmu zende Indus ien als in
Klimalösungen. Die Konsumgewohnhei en de eichs en 10 % de Menschen e u sachen d eimal
meh Umwel e schmu zung als die de ä ms en 50 %. Schwellenlände wie China und Indien, die
bis 2060 bzw. 2070 Ne o-Null-Emissionen e eichen wollen, soll en sich den Indus ielände n
anschließen und die Emissions eduzie ung beschleunigen. Nich nu die A und Weise, wie wi
Ene gie p oduzie en und nu zen, muss sich schnell ände n. Es is die A und Weise, wie wi
Lebensmi el konsumie en, die A und Weise, wie wi die Na u schü zen. Es gil alles, übe all,
und alles au einmal zu ände n. De Ag a sek o is besonde s ge äh de , insbesonde e in SSA-
Lände n, in denen die Landwi scha ü Wi scha und P oduk i i ä on zen ale Bedeu ung is .
Zu den ach Lände n mi den höchs en kumulie en Ne oemissionen aus Land- und Fo s wi scha
sowie ande e Landnu zung gehö en zwei SSA-Lände , Nige ia und die DR Kongo. Die meis en
diese Emissionen sind du ch in e na ionalen Handel induzie und we den du ch den Konsum in
indus ialisie en Regionen wie Eu opa, den Ve einig en S aa en und China e u sach . Alle dings
wi d die Ein ich ung des au de COP27 e einba en Ve lus - und Schadens onds nich aus eichen,
um das Bla zu wenden. E wi d sich auch nich zwangsläu ig in Ve p lich ungen zu
Klima inanzie ung niede schlagen, da bei de Be ei s ellung de e sp ochenen jäh lichen
Klima inanzie ung in Höhe on 100 Millia den US-Dolla du ch die Reichen bishe keine
Fo sch i e e ziel wu den. Die a ikanischen Lände selbs müssen sich au ih e eigenen S ä ken
besinnen und ih e Ans engungen ech zei ig und subs anziell e s ä ken.
