Kozal, Ozge; Ka acuka, Mehme ; Haucap, Jus us
A icle
Social and economic de e minan s o elec o al beha io in
Tu key
Re iew o Economics and Poli ical Science (REPS)
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Cai o Uni e si y, Cai o
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kozal, Ozge; Ka acuka, Mehme ; Haucap, Jus us (2024) : Social and economic
de e minan s o elec o al beha io in Tu key, Re iew o Economics and Poli ical Science (REPS), ISSN
2631-3561, Eme ald, Bingley, Vol. 9, Iss. 3, pp. 233-264,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1108/REPS-07-2023-0084
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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Social and economic de e minan s
o elec o al beha io in Tu key
Ozge Kozal
Depa men o Economics, Ege Uni e si y, Izmi , Tu key
Mehme Ka acuka
Depa men o Economics, Ege Uni e si y, Izmi , Tu key and
DICE, Hein ich-Heine-Uni e si a D€
usseldo , D€
usseldo , Ge many, and
Jus us Haucap
DICE, Hein ich-Heine-Uni e si a D€
usseldo , D€
usseldo , Ge many
Abs ac
Pu pose –In his s udy he au ho s aim o comp ehensi ely in es iga e he de e minan s o o ingbeha io in
Tu key, wi h a speci ic ocus on he dynamics o he cen e -pe iphe y deba e. Mainly, he au ho s ocus on
egional o ing pa e ns du ing he pe iod ha is domina ed by he Jus ice and De elopmen Pa y (JDP/AKP)
in he elec ions. The au ho s apply he andom e ec s gene alized leas squa es (GLS) me hodology, and
analyze elec o al da a co e ing ou pi o al pa liamen a y elec ions (2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018) ac oss all 81
p o inces (NUTS III egions). The au ho s indi idually examine o ing dynamics o he ou majo pa ies in
pa liamen : he JDP/AKP, he Republican People’s Pa y (RPP/CHP), he Na ionalis Mo emen Pa y (NMP/
MHP) and he Peoples’Democ a ic Pa y (PDP/HDP). The au ho s con ibu e o a comp ehensi e
unde s anding o how socioeconomic clea ages, economic pe o mance, pa y alignmen and social
dynamics shape o e p e e ences in he Tu kish con ex , he eby add essing gaps in he exis ing li e a u e.
Design/me hodology/app oach –This esea ch employs an ecological s udy o Tu kish NUTS III sub-
egions, co e ing na ional elec ions om 2007 o 2018. The au ho s u ilize he andom e ec s GLS me hod o
accoun o he e oscedas ici y and ime e ec s. The inclusion o he June and No embe 2015 elec ions enables
a comp ehensi e analysis o he e ol ing dynamics in Tu kish o ing beha io . The esul s emain obus
when applying pooled OLS and ixed e ec OLS echniques o con ol.
Findings –The s udy’s indings e eal ha economic pe o mance, speci ically economic g ow h, plays a
pi o al ole in he sus ained dominance o he JDP/AKP pa y. Vo e s closely associa e JDP p e e ence wi h
economic g ow h, esul ing in highe o ing sha es du ing pe iods o economic p ospe i y. Along wi h
economic g ow h; sha e o ag icul u e in egions’GDP, emale illi e acy a e, old popula ion a e, ne domes ic
mig a ion, e o ism and pa y alignmen a e also in luen ial ac o s in he Tu kish case. Fu he mo e,
di e ences among sociocul u al g oups, and Eas –Wes dicho omy seem o be impo an ac o s ha e eal he
impac o social clea ages o unde s and elec o al choice in Tu key.
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
233
JEL Classi ica ion —D70, D72, P16, R11
© Ozge Kozal, Mehme Ka acuka and Jus us Haucap. Published in Re iew o Economics and Poli ical
Science. Published by Eme ald Publishing Limi ed. This a icle is published unde he C ea i e
Commons A ibu ion (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may ep oduce, dis ibu e, ansla e and c ea e
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The au ho s would like o hank he edi o and wo anonymous e e ees who kindly e iewed he
ea lie e sion o his manusc ip and p o ided aluable eedback and con ibu ions o his manusc ip .
Funding: The au ho s ha e no ele an inancial o non- inancial in e es s o disclose.
E hics app o al: This ma e ial is he au ho s’own o iginal wo k, which has no been p e iously
published elsewhe e and is no cu en ly being conside ed o publica ion elsewhe e.
Da a: The da ase s analyzed du ing he cu en s udy a e no publicly a ailable due he ac ha hey
cons i u e an exce p o esea ch in p og ess bu a e a ailable om he co esponding au ho on
easonable eques .
Compe ing in e es s: The au ho s ha e no compe ing in e es s o decla e ha a e ele an o he
con en o his a icle.
The cu en issue and ull ex a chi e o his jou nal is a ailable on Eme ald Insigh a :
h ps://www.eme ald.com/insigh /2631-3561.h m
Recei ed 20 Augus 2023
Re ised 20 No embe 2023
Accep ed 31 Decembe 2023
Re iew o Economics and Poli ical
Science
Vol. 9 No. 3, 2024
pp. 233-264
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
e-ISSN: 2631-3561
p-ISSN: 2356-9980
DOI 10.1108/REPS-07-2023-0084
O iginali y/ alue –This s udy con ibu es o he exis ing li e a u e by o e ing a comp ehensi e
mul idimensional analysis o elec o al beha io in Tu key, ocusing on he JDP/AKP dominance pe iod. The
main con ibu ion o his s udy is i s mul idimensional pe spec i e on he powe bases o all main pa ies,
conside ing key o e choice heo ies (clea ages, pa y alignmen and e ospec i e economic pe o mance
o ing) ha ha e no been sys ema ically analyzed in p io esea ch. The main esea ch ques ion o his s udy
is o examine which ac o s a ec o ing beha io in Tu key and how he dynamics o cen e -pe iphe y o
eas e n-wes e n egion o ing beha io unde he JDP hegemony can be explained. The con ibu ion o his
s udy consis s no only in i s empi ical es ing o panel da a app oaches bu also in i s comp ehensi e analysis
o ou majo poli ical pa ies. Building upon exis ing s udies in he li e a u e, his esea ch seeks o ex end he
unde s anding o o ing dynamics o he ou main pa ies in he pa liamen —JDP/AKP, RPP/CHP, NMP/
MHP and PPDP/HDP —by del ing in o hei dynamics indi idually, he eby expanding he scope o p e ious
s udies. This s udy aims o make a con ibu ion by no only empi ically es ing panel da a app oaches bu also
conduc ing a comp ehensi e analysis o ou majo poli ical pa ies. Fu he mo e, he sepa a e inclusion o he
2015 elec ions and u iliza ion o a panel da a app oach en ich he analysis by cap u ing he e ol ing dynamics
o Tu kish o ing beha io . The s udy unde sco es he signi icance o socioeconomic ac o s, economic
pe o mance and social clea ages o o e s’choices wi hin he con ex o a dominan pa y ule.
Keywo ds Vo ing beha io , Gene al elec ions, Poli ical pa ies, Tu key
Pape ype Resea ch pape
1. In oduc ion
Following he es ablishmen o he Tu kish Republic in 1923 subsequen o he O oman e a,
he Tu kish pa y sys em unde wen h ee signi ican s uc u al ans o ma ions. The ini ial
junc u e occu ed du ing he pe iod o single-pa y dominance spanning om 1923 o 1946.
This phase subsequen ly ansi ioned in o a compe i i e pa y sys em wi h he ad en o he
1946 elec ion, whe ein he Democ a ic Pa y (DP) eme ged as a legi ima e con ende agains
he incumben Republican People’s Pa y (RPP). No ably, despi e he RPP’s no able elec o al
ad an age, he in eg i y o hiselec ion was ma ed by widesp eadallega ions o i egula i ies
and undue in luence, ende ing i a subjec o e en con o e sy. The ajec o y owa d
equi able elec o al p ac ices ma e ialized wi h he ad en o he i s impa ial elec ions in
1950, culmina ing in he ascension o he DP o he powe . This pi o al junc u e ma ked he
eme gence o a new poli ical epoch, cha ac e ized by he p ominence o wo p ima y
mains eam pa ies ha subs an ially econ igu ed he Tu kish poli ical landscape.
The second signi ican e en was he 2002 elec ion, du ing which he Jus ice and
De elopmen Pa y (JDP) secu ed he majo i y o o es a e being ounded in 2001.
Subsequen ly, e e y elec ion since 2002 has esul ed in JDP-majo i y go e nmen s, excep o
he June 2015 elec ions, which yielded an indecisi e ou come. Following a ailu e o o m a
coali ion ag eemen among he pa ies, hese elec ions we e e un in No embe 2015,
ul ima ely leading o he o ma ion o a JDP majo i y go e nmen . Academic li e a u e
examining he Tu kish poli ical pa y sys em unde sco es a ans o ma i e shi om a
mul i-pa y e a o a dominan pa y sys em a e he 2002 elec ions, which pe sis ed
h oughou he JDP’s successi e go e nmen s (Musil, 2015;Gumuscu, 2013). Mo eo e , he
a e ma h o he a emp ed coup on 15 July 2016 wi nessed a s a e c isis un olding amids a
poli ical ansi ion pe iod, whe e he uling pa y sough o implemen a sys emic shi om a
pa liamen a y o a p esiden ial sys em (A as and Yo ulmazla , 2018). Gi en he
ci cums ances, he JDP’s dominance in he pa y sys em is o en explained by i s abili y o
b oaden i s co e suppo h ough ma e ial bene i s, delegi imiza ion o he opposi ion and
selec i e use o ideological igidi y and lexibili y (Gumuscu, 2013). The e o e, i is c ucial o
sc u inize he e-elec ions o he incumben poli ical pa y when examining o ing beha io .
Pu di e en ly, i is impo an o add ess he unde lying s abili y in he alloca ion o elec o al
p e e ences in Tu key. I appea s ha a comp ehensi e analysis o gene al elec ions,
conside ing mul iple dimensions, is impe a i e.
The li e a u e on elec o al beha io dis inguishes h ee main ac o s in de ining elec o al
choice. The i s is pa y iden i ica ion, gene ally pe cei ed as long- e m pa isanship. In he
REPS
9,3
234
Tu kish case, pa y-swi ching and ola ili y a e high (Hazama, 2012). This is mos ly due o
in e en ions by he mili a y, leading o agmen a ion in he cen e - igh and le . F om a
his o ical pe spec i e, i is e iden ha elec o s a e p ima ily aligned wi h he cen e - igh
and le (Kumba acibasi, 2016). Ano he ac o is he e ec s o social clea ages, which a e
accompanied by di e ences in socioeconomic s uc u es in he coun y. In Tu key, he main
clea ages e ol e a ound he cen e -pe iphe y deba e and Ku dish e hnici y. These
clea ages a e usually isible in a egional dimension, whe e some egions exhibi clus e s
o economic de elopmen and dis inc e hnici ies. Finally, e ospec i e o ing -gene ally
called economic o ing as well-is ano he c i ical ac o in de e mining elec ions as he
elec o s e alua e he p e ious pe o mances o he poli ical pa ies. Economic o ing is
mainly he mos isible pa e n o e ospec i e decision-making o elec o a es as he o e s
make judgmen s on he economic pe o mances o he go e nmen s.
Apa om he li e a u e, he main esea ch ques ion o his s udy is: which ac o s a ec
o ing beha io in Tu key, and how can we explain he dynamics o cen e -pe iphe y o eas e n-
wes e n egion o ing beha io unde he JDP hegemony? We apply a Gene alized Leas
Squa es (GLS) app oach o he elec ions co e ing 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2018, encompassing all
81 p o inces (NUTS III egions), o de e mine he main cha ac e is ics o o e choice o he
majo poli ical pa ies ep esen ed in he pa liamen . Ou p ima y expec ed con ibu ion is o
shed ligh on he local de e minan s ha shape o e s’choices using a much la ge da ase
co e ing ou pa liamen a y elec ions since 2002. The con ibu ion o his s udy lies no only in
i s empi ical es ing o panel da a app oaches bu also in i s comp ehensi e analysis o ou
majo poli ical pa ies. Unlike exis ing s udies in he li e a u e, we will seek o unde s and he
o ing dynamics o he ou main pa ies in he pa liamen : JDP, RPP, Na ionalis Mo emen
Pa y (NMP) and Peoples’Democ a ic Pa y (PDP), sepa a ely. The s udy dis inguishes he
de e minan s o o e beha io by compa ing panels wi h and wi hou he 2015 indecisi e
elec ion o show simila i ies and di e ences in o ing beha io . Mo eo e , i places signi ican
emphasis on examining economic o ing, cen e -pe iphe y hesis, and socio-economic as well as
cul u al dispa i ies by inco po a ing all he a iables wi h a dummy a iable which e lec s he
classical cen e -pe iphe y hesis in Tu key, as highligh ed by Wu h ich (2015).Alongside
adi ional explana ions like he clea ages app oach, we con end ha locali ies ha e played an
e en mo e subs an ial ole in shaping elec ion ou comes in Tu key.
In he nex sec ion, we summa ize he exis ing li e a u e on he de e minan s o elec o al
choice in Tu key. Following ha , we p esen he da a and me hodology in Sec ion 3, empi ical
esul s will be discussed in Sec ion 4, ollowed by a conclusion and discussion.
2. Li e a u e e iew: he de e minan s o elec o al choice in Tu key
Ex ensi e li e a u e del es in o o e beha io ac oss di e en coun ies, pe iods, and heo e ical
pe spec i es. The Tu kish case is pa icula ly dis inc due o he e olu ion o i s democ acy,
p esen ing challenges o c oss-elec ion compa isons. Despi e mul i-pa y elec ions since 1950,
mili a y in e en ions, pa y bans, u baniza ion, and immig a ion ha e dis up ed analyses.
Mo eo e , egional ensions, socio-economic dispa i ies, and cul u al di e ences ha e ende ed
Tu key’s elec ions complex and wo hy o mul i ace ed s udy. Ca ego izing Tu kish o e
beha io p o es challenging due o mixed heo e ical app oaches –economic o ing, clea ages,
and pa y alignmen –o en coexis ing in s udies. In he li e a u e be o e 2002, he p e ailing
hypo hesis was cen e ed a ound economic o ing, es ablishing a connec ion be ween economic
ac o s and o e choices. A e 2002, esea ch con inued o acknowledge economic o ing while
del ing in o a b oade spec um o ac o s, including socio-economic and cul u al di e ences,
pa y alignmen , and a ious clea ages such as cen e -pe iphe y and e hnic dis inc ions.
Wi hin his sec ion, we summa ize he Tu kish elec o al beha io li e a u e, ecognizing i s
in ica e amalgama ion o heo e ical iewpoin s and a iable u iliza ion. As no ed ea lie ,
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
235
plen y o li e a u e p io o 2002 p edominan ly suppo ed he no ion o economic o ing. La e
esea ch expanded i s scope o include socio-economic dispa i ies, clea ages, and pa y
alignmen . This nuanced app oach cas s ligh on Tu key’s dis inc i e elec o al landscape,
mi o ing i s his o ical and socio-poli ical complexi ies. Ea ly s udies by Bulu ay and Yildi im
(1969) examined economic ac o s’impac on pa y o ing be ween 1950 and 1965, e ealing
economic in luences on o e choices when g ow h exceeded 5%. Ça ko
glu (1997) explo ed
mac oeconomic de e minan s o incumben s’elec o al suppo om 1950 o 1995, aligning
wi h economic o ing heo y. Aka ca and Tansel (2007) highligh ed economic pe o mance’s
impo ance in elec ions be ween 1950 and 2004, obse ing a “cos o uling”phenomenon a e
pa ies assume powe . Aka ca’s (2019) s udy co e ing 1950 o 2019 con i med economic
o ing, highligh ing weakened e ec s wi h mo e pa ies and ideological dis ance. Deniz e al.
(2021) employed panel da a analysis co e ing he pe iod om 2002 o 2018 o explo e he
luc ua ions in JDP’s o e sha es o e ime. Thei indings unde sco ed he subs an ial
in luence o economic condi ions on hese a ia ions, indica ing ha he elec o a e ended o
ewa d o penalize he pa y based on economic de elopmen s. Fu he mo e, e idence om
su ey-based s udies also suppo s economic o ing heo y, as demons a ed in Bas
¸le en e al.
(2005),Kalaycıo
glu (2014),andAy ac’s (2020) wo k, showing ha elec o a es a e mo e inclined
o suppo he JDP in o de o ewa d g ow h o , mo e b oadly, good economic condi ions.
Tu kish clea ages mainly encompass cen e /pe iphe y and e hnic di ides (Wu h ich,
2015).€
Ozbudun and Tachau (1975) obse ed socio-economic clea ages’ ise pos -1973
elec ions, eplacing cen e -pe iphe y and cul u al di ides. Isik and Pina cioglu (2010)
highligh ed local de e minan s di e en ia ing JDP and RPP o es, emphasizing cen e /
pe iphe y ensions in 2002. This complex ne wo k o e ol ing esea ch cap u es he in ica e
elec o al dynamics o Tu key, illumina ing he in e ac ion be ween economic ac o s, socio-
poli ical a iables, and o e lapping clea ages. The Tu kish-Ku dish clea age holds
pa amoun signi icance, wi h Ku dish opposi ion engaging legally h ough poli ical
pa ies. While empi ical s udies hea ily ely on su ey da a due o he sca ci y o o icial
da a, i ’s impo an o acknowledge he in e wo en na u e o bo h cen e -pe iphe y and
e hnic clea ages. Wi hin his con ex , Ça ko
glu and Hinich (2006) sc u inized u ban
popula ion su ey da a, iden i ying he dominance o he cen e -pe iphe y/secula is s. p o-
Islamis clea age in he ideological dimension. Ano he ace in ol es he na ionalis
clea age, pi ing Tu kish and Ku dish iden i ies agains each o he . Empi ical e idence
suppo s he di e en ia ion o majo pa ies along hese clea age lines. Kumba acibasi’s
(2016) eg ession models dissec ed dis ic -le el elec ion da a om 1950 o 2011, e ealing he
shaping in luence o elec o al geog aphy and ideological con inui ies since he 1970s. JDP
o es exhibi connec ions o p o-Islamis mo emen s o he 70s, unde pinned by sha ed
o ganiza ional oo s and ideological o igins.
Kalaycıo
glu (2014) empi ically examined p e-2009 and 2014 local elec ion su eys, un eiling
how pa y suppo aligns wi h o e s’pa y iden i ica ion, ideological s ances, and economic
con en men ac oss na ional and local elec ions. Religiosi y eme ges as a c i ical ac o
dis inguishing JDP p e e ences om o he pa ies. Bilecen’ss udy(2006) con i med eligiosi y
and e hnici y (Tu k/Ku d) as pi o al de e minan s o elec o al choices, using a 2010 su ey
da ase . Gidengil and Ka akoc (2016) ound economic ac o s, social se ices, democ acy, and
eligiosi y shaping JDP’s success, alongside he independen e ec o poli ical leade s’
popula i y on pa y p e e ence. Wu h ich’sanalysis(2015) o p e ious elec ions acknowledged
he pa ial alidi y o clea age hypo heses, indica ing he a iable oles o cul u e and eligion
wi hin he sys em. Howe e , he p ima y in luence emains local and ou ine decision-making
among o e s. Deniz e al. (2021) concluded ha socio-economic ac o s a e in luenced by
e hnici y and ideology, pa icula ly conside ing his o ically unde de eloped eas e n egions,
p edominan ly Ku dish-popula ed and JDP-s onghold a eas. Mos ecen ly, Gundem (2022)
unco e s a signi ican link be ween eligious ac i i ies and na ionwide suppo o he JDP/
REPS
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236
AKP. Howe e , his associa ion shi s when egional a ia ions a e conside ed, e ealing h ee
dis inc spa ial di isions. The ela ionship be ween o ing beha io , eligious ac i i ies, and
demog aphic a iables a ies no ably egions. Ano he s udy o Gundem’s(2023)also
in es iga es he alidi y o con en ional economic o ing heo y o he Tu kish case. Howe e ,
he s udy e eals ha ac o s like eligious conse a ism and e hnic iden i y hold g ea e
p edic i e powe o he AKP’s elec o al success han economic condi ions, bo h na ionally and
locally. The spa ial analysis shows unique o ing pa e ns linked o e hnic iden i y, wi h no
signi ican spillo e e ec be ween hese pa e ns.
The ealm o comp ehending a ia ions in o ing beha io in Tu key has expanded o
inco po a e al e na i e a iables. Aka ca and Tansel (2015) aimed o comp ehend he
in luence o in e nal mig a ion on poli ical pa icipa ion in Tu key, in eg a ing o he
socioeconomic a iables. Thei indings sugges ha in e nal mig a ion ad e sely a ec s
poli ical pa icipa ion bo h in mig an s’o igins and des ina ions. The aging demog aphic
also ga ne ed a en ion h ough s udies by Kayaoglu (2017) and E dogan and Seme ci (2017).
Kayaoglu (2017) inds ha women, highly educa ed and u ban a ea esiden s a e mo e
inclined o abs ain om o ing. Con e sely, educa ed young indi iduals we e inclined o o e
o he p ima y opposi ion RPP, while indecisi e young Ku ds u ned o he PDP (Peace and
Democ acy Pa y) a e he Gezi Pa k p o es s. In con as , E dogan and Seme ci (2017) ind
ou ha he being young does no ma e . The conside a ion o egional insecu i y has
ga ne ed a en ion in he examina ion o o ing beha io , p ima ily h ough wo a iables:
c ime and e o ism. While c ime is used in e na ionally o gauge egional insecu i y, as seen
in s udies by Ce da and Ve ga a (2007),Coleman (2002), and Sønde sko e al. (2022),
e o ism has gained mo e ac ion in Tu kish s udies, o en wi hin he heo e ical amewo k
o e hnic clea ages. Kib is (2011) con ibu es o he li e a u e by analyzing he e ec s o
e o ism on he o ing choices o Tu kish ci izens du ing he 1991 and 1995 gene al
elec ions, ocusing on dis ic -le el da a in ol ing soldie s and police o ice s who died
igh ing he KWP. The esul s indica e ha exposu e o e o ism de imen ally impac s he
incumben pa y’s dis ic -le el o es, u he boos ing he o e sha e o igh -wing pa ies
ha adop less concilia o y s ances and adop a mo e asse i e app oach agains e o ism.
This s udy s ands ou o i s pionee ing app oach in he domain o o ing beha io ,
pa icula ly wi hin he con ex o he JDP’s ex ended dominance. By le e aging an ex ensi e
da ase co e ing pa liamen a y elec ions h oughou he JDP’s e-elec ion e a, his esea ch
b eaks new g ound in un a eling he in ica e local de e minan s shaping o e p e e ences.
The applica ion o ad anced panel da a me hods signi ican ly expands he sample size o
encompass all 81 p o inces (a he NUTS-3 le el), ensu ing obus p ecision in es ima ing
pa ame e s. In a depa u e om con en ional s udies, his esea ch also en u es in o
uncha ed e i o y by del ing in o he dynamic o ing pa e ns o ou majo pa ies –JDP,
RPP, NMP, and PDP. This mul idimensional app oach inco po a es c ucial ac o s such as
clea ages, pa y alignmen , and e ospec i e (economic) pe o mance o ing. By doing so, i
o e s a comp ehensi e pe spec i e on he powe bases o hese pa ies. Mo eo e , he
sepa a e analysis o he June and No embe 2015 elec ions wi hin he panel se s his s udy
apa , as i endea o s o unco e he nuanced dynamics ha played a pi o al ole in bo h he
decline and subsequen esu gence o he JDP.
3. Da a and model
Ou analysis co e s ou gene al elec ions 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2018 held in Tu key. In 2015,
wo elec ions held in June and No embe , and in he June elec ion JDP los i s pa liamen a y
majo i y o he i s ime wi h an indecisi e elec ion esul ha no pa y gained an absolu e
majo i y o o m a go e nmen . And he elec ion was e un in No embe 2015, esul ing in an
inc ease in JDP o es and he pa y secu ing a clea majo i y o o m a go e nmen wi hou
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
237
needing a coali ion pa ne . In his s udy, bo h elec ions we e conside ed o iden i y
di e ences o simila i ies in o ing pa e ns o bo h he incumben pa y and o he majo
pa ies.
The egional a iables, as well as he elec ion da a se , a e ob ained h ough TURKSTAT,
he o icial s a is ics agency o Tu key. Da a on e o ism is ob ained om a di e en sou ce,
Global Te o ism Da abase (GTD). Table 1 displays he in o ma ion abou da ase .
Desc ip i e s a is ics o each a iable and he co ela ion ma ix a e also p o ided in
Appendixes 1 and 2, espec i ely.
In o de o analyze he e ec s o conse a i e Islamis /secula is social s uc u es, i s we
employ emale illi e acy ( illi e acy a e) p esump ion ha conse a i e alues a e biased
agains schooling o gi ls in he pe iphe y. Also, he economic in as uc u es o hese egions
a e mo e adi ional, and he sha e o he p ima y sec o is highe . The e o e, we use
(ag isha e) a iable o deno e he sha e o ag icul u e in egional g oss domes ic p oduc .
The JDP pe iod wi nessed a high le el o economic g ow h compa ed o he p e ious
decade o he 90s. Howe e , he g ow h a e was une en ac oss he egions. To conside
he e ec s o economic o ing, we measu e he e ec s o economicg ow hin egional
le el be ween wo consecu i e elec ions ( egionalg ow h). The coe icien o
egionalg ow h is expec ed o be posi i e o JDP and nega i e o he opposi ion
pa ies. In o de o measu e he cha ac e is ics o he egions, we use na u al loga i hm
income pe capi a in US Dolla s (gdppe capi a) conside ing he alue one yea be o e he
elec ion and he numbe o hospi al beds o 1,000 pe sons (hospi albed). These a iables
a e used o cha ac e ize he de elopmen le els o he egions. Due o clus e s o indus y
and popula ion, he wes e n pa o Tu key is mo e de eloped and u banized han he
eas e n pa . These a iables also can be in e p e edas hee ec so u baniza ion,and
mode niza ion on one hand, and he e ec s o heal hca e in as uc u al in es men s,
which o e s o e whelmingly gi e c edi o he JDP go e nmen s on he o he hand. In
addi ion, se e al s udies indi ec ly indica e ha unde s anding he beha io o he uling
pa y, speci ically how hey alloca e he budge o heal h in as uc u e –in o he
wo ds, heal h- ela ed poli ical commi men , spending p io i y, and he poli ical will o
Va iable name De ini ion
JDP(4) The o e sha e o he speci ic pa ies in he p e ious elec ion
RPP(4)
NMP(4)
PDP(4)
gdppe capi a The na u al loga i hm o GDP pe capi a in one yea be o e he elec ion
egionalg ow h The compound g ow h a e o he egion be ween wo elec ions
ag isha e The sha e o ag icul u e in egions’ o al GDP
illi e acy a e The sha e o illi e a e women in o al women popula ion
uni e si yedu The sha e o people wi h a uni e si y in 15þpopula ion
oldpopula ion The sha e o 65þpopula ion in o al popula ion
ne mig Ra e o ne domes ic immig a ion
hospi albed Na u al loga i hm o numbe o hospi al beds o 1,000 pe sons
c ime a e Sha e o con ic s ecei ed in o p ison in o al
e o ism Sha e o e o is a acks be ween wo elec ions in o al a acks
eas Eas is a dummy akes he alue o 1, i he p o ince is in Eas , o he wise 0
a
No e(s):
a
Ag i, Adiyaman, A dahan, Ba man, Baybu , Bingol, Bi lis, Diya baki , Elazig, E zincan, Gazian ep,
Ka s, Kilis, Igdi , Mala ya, Tunceli, Mus, Hakka i, Sanliu a, Ma din, Si nak, Sii and Van a e he egions in
which dummy a iable akes he alue o 1
Sou ce(s): Compiled by he au ho s
Table 1.
Va iables and
de ini ions
REPS
9,3
238
spend –helps us de e mine whe he i a ec s he elec o al p e e ences o o e (Behe a
e al., 2022). To add ess he cul u al di e ences, we inco po a e educa ion a iable, as i is
expec ed o a ec ideologies o o e s. In his espec , he sha e o he popula ion wi h a
uni e si y deg ee (uni e si yedu) is included, as o es o people wi h high le el o
educa ion may di e by poli ical pa ies, i can be expec ed ha high le el o educa ion
can be associa ed wi h he suppo o he opposi ion pa ies o con ibu e he changes in
poli ical igidi ies.
As ano he egion-speci ic a iable, we use he a e o ne domes ic immig a ion (ne mig)
in he p o incial le el. This a iable also has wo dis inc implica ions. The i s is ha i
indica es he “pull and push ac o s” o he egion co e ing o e all desi able social and
economic condi ions. The o he implica ion is he inc easing compe i ion in he local labo
ma ke s due o immig a ion. His o ically, he immig a ion p ocess has been inc eased by he
indus ializa ion p ocess in Tu key, which inc eased subs an ially in he 1980s due o
clus e s o indus ies in he wes e n pa . In he 1990s Tu key wi nessed ano he wa e o
immig an s om he Sou h-eas e n pa due o inc eased e o and secu i y measu es he
p edominan ly Ku dish popula ion mo ed o he wes e n pa s. S ill, he main pa e n o
immig a ion is om he eas o he wes . Sha e o e o is a acks be ween elec ions in o al
a acks ( e o ism) was also added o he model o con ol bo h he e ec o insecu i y o he
egion on o ing beha io and also he poli ical di ision be ween KWP and he o he pa ies,
in o he wo ds, o con ol how he o e sha e o he incumben and he o he s esponded o
e o ism. We also use he c ime a e (c ime a e) in he egion o de e mine he e ec o sa e y
and secu i y conce ns o he o e s in he elec ions. The coe icien o his a iable is expec ed
o be nega i e o he go e ning pa y and posi i e o he opposi ion as o e s may punish
he incumben pa y o he lack o secu i y in hei egions. The e ec s o di e en age
g oups a e aken in o conside a ion as hei economic, social, and ideological expec a ions
may di e . Old popula ion (oldpopula ion) -aged 65 and abo e-is used as dependen a iables
o measu e he impac o he high dependency a io. These a iables a e able o cap u e
dis inc socioeconomic and demog aphic ea u es o he pe iphe al g oups a he
p o ince le el.
Al hough e hnic clea ages a e impo an , especially in he Tu kish con ex , o icial and
sys ema ic da ase ela ed o e hnici y does no exis up o da e. The da a ela ing o he
mo he ongue o he ci izens we e collec ed in he 1960 census o he i s and las ime. In
his s udy, howe e , we use a dummy a iable (eas ) o he egions in eas and sou heas
Tu key in which Ku dish ci izens compose a big sha e. Las ly, pa y alignmen can be an
impo an ac o o unde s and he endu ance o he JDP and his can be modeled by using he
o e sha e o he p e ious elec ion o a speci ic pa y. I he coe icien o his a iable is close
o uni y, i indica es a high deg ee o poli ical ine ia. Howe e , i he pa ame e is less han
uni y, i is consis en wi h s a egic o ing.
We employ gene alized leas squa es eg ession wi h x gls command in S a a 15. I he
panels a e he e oscedas ic, c oss-sec ionally co ela ed and au oco ela ed o ype AR(1),
x gls command wi h panels (he e oscedas ic) and co (psa 1) command is sugges ed by
To es-Reyna (2007). This command p esen s basically a andom e ec es ima o , bu also
allows dealing wi h he e oskedas ici y and co ela ion. In his s udy, Woold idge es o
au oco ela ion in panel da a and Modi ied Wald es o g oupwise he e oskedas ici y a e
applied and o each eg ession, we de ec AR(1) s uc u e and he e oscedas ici y, in his
espec we employ and display he andom e ec GLS eg ession esul s in ollowing Tables.
This echnique can be accep ed as a mo e e icien es ima o han ixed e ec s eg ession
when he numbe o ime pe iods is small (Guja a i, 2003), he ime-in a ian a iables a e
impo an p edic o s o he ou come a iable, and he e is he e oscedas ici y and ime e ec s
in o accoun . In addi ion o hese, we also es ima e pooled OLS and Fixed E ec Reg ession o
make a obus ness check and compa e models in Appendix 3.
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
239
Yij; ¼β0þβ1Yij; −4þβ2Xij; þδ þβ3Eas *Xij; þ
α
iþℇi (1)
Equa ion (1) ep esen s he basic e sion o he andom e ec GLS eg ession adop ing ou
model. In his equa ion Yij; ep esen s he sha e o he main poli ical pa ies (i) which a e
ep esen ed in he pa liamen , namely JDP, RPP, NMP and PDP in he elec ions o ( 52007,
2011, 2015, 2018) in NUTS III egions (j51, ..., 81). PDP joined he elec ions as a pa y in June
and No embe 2015 elec ions, bu i s p edecesso s suppo ed independen candida es in he
p e ious elec ions. Fo 2007 and 2011, we ake he o e sha es o p o-Ku dish independen
candida es. Yij; −4is he sha e o he pa y in he p e ious elec ion ha was ou yea s ago. As
we men ioned be o e, his a iable is in e p e ed mos ly as he “cos o uling”in poli ical
science. I is expec ed o be signi ican ly lowe han 1 o he go e ning pa y in a way ha
o e s may s a egically be agains he pa ies in he go e nmen o dilu e hei powe , o
hey may be i ed o he leade s by ime, o because o he comp omises, he go e nmen
needs o make while uling he go e nmen (Aka ca and Tansel, 2007). Howe e , when he e
is s ong ine ia in he pa y sys em, his coe icien will be close o uni y. Because o he
ad e se easons ela ed o s a egic o ing and he cos o uling, he coe icien o his
a iable o opposi ion pa ies is expec ed o be g ea e han uni y. In mos o he s udies p io
o he 2007 elec ions, his was he case in he Tu kish pa y sys em, howe e du ing he
p edominan pa y sys em pe iod, we expec ha he si ua ion has e ol ed in o s ong ine ia
whe eas in a pola ized pa y sys em, i may ep esen ideological o ien a ion and pa y
alignmen . Fu he mo e, ne wo k e ec s may c ea e such an alignmen p ocedu e whe e
o e s a e in luenced by he choices o hei amilies and pee s. In he case o s ong ne wo k
e ec s, his coe icien will be also close o uni y.
Yij; ¼β0þβ1Yij; −4þβ2gdppe capi a þβ3 egionalg ow h þβ4ag isha e
þβ5 illi e acy a e þβ6uni e si yedu þβ7oldpopula ion þβ8ne mig a ion
þβ9hospi albed þβ10c ime a e þβ11 e o ism þδ
þβ3Eas *Xij; þ
α
iþℇi
(2)
Xij; is he indi idual ec o o each independen a iable.
α
iis he unobse ed indi idual-
speci ic andom e ec , δ a e he coe icien s o he ime dummies o each elec ion cap u ing
ime-speci ic e ec s. Eas is a ime-in a ian dummy a iable o cap u e egional di e ences
be ween Eas e n and Wes e n egions. Eas *Xij; is he in e ac ion e m o Eas and Xij; ,
whe e he o me s ands o egion dummies (0 o he Wes and 1 o he Eas e n egion) and
he la e deno es he indi idual independen a iable. Rega ding hese a iables,
Equa ion (2) ep esen s he ex ended e sion o he andom e ec GLS eg ession o a
speci ic poli ical pa y.
4. Empi ical indings
Random e ec s GLS eg ession esul s o each poli ical pa y a e p esen ed in Tables 2–9.
To conduc obus ness checks and compa e al e na i e echniques, we es ima e all he
models wi hou in e ac ion e ms using simple pooled OLS and ixed e ec s eg ession as
well. The compa ison o al e na i e echniques is displayed in Appendix 3. The esul s o
empi ical analysis indica e ha o e s in Tu key a e a ec ed by he ideological, economic,
cul u al, and social ac o s, o in o he wo ds; egions wi h di e en cha ac e is ics end o
o e in dis inc i e ways. The a iable o poli ical ine ia o alignmen is s a is ically
signi ican o all pa ies and in line wi h he expec a ions, he coe icien is closed he alue o
1 o he incumben pa y.
REPS
9,3
240
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Poli ical ine ia
RPPlag 0.842*** 0.843*** 0.834*** 0.847*** 0.834*** 0.839*** 0.829*** 0.842*** 0.84*** 0.827***
(0.021) (0.022) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.017) (0.022)
Economic ac o s
gdppe capi a 0.042*** 0.038*** 0.04*** 0.039*** 0.042*** 0.043*** 0.041*** 0.041*** 0.041*** 0.039***
(0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
egionalg ow h 0.239*** 0.196*** 0.261*** 0.259*** 0.237*** 0.243*** 0.278*** 0.243*** 0.215*** 0.237***
(0.057) (0.063) (0.058) (0.058) (0.057) (0.057) (0.057) (0.057) (0.06) (0.057)
ag isha e 0.006 0.009 0.011 0.001 0.003 0.009 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.006
(0.02) (0.02) (0.022) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.022) (0.02) (0.02) (0.019)
Socio-economic and socio-demog aphic ac o s
illi e acy a e 0.1** 0.143*** 0.152*** 0.072 0.137*** 0.114** 0.156*** 0.107** 0.106*** 0.154***
(0.05) (0.047) (0.05) (0.057) (0.048) (0.051) (0.047) (0.05) (0.04) (0.048)
uni e si yedu 0.002 0.019 0.014 0.003 0.007 0.028 0.003 0.001 0.043 0.001
(0.103) (0.115) (0.112) (0.109) (0.111) (0.109) (0.113) (0.105) (0.103) (0.114)
oldpopula ion 0.017 0.018 0.001 0.015 0.003 0.015 0.008 0.015 0.023 0.016
(0.046) (0.044) (0.047) (0.045) (0.045) (0.043) (0.047) (0.046) (0.025) (0.044)
ne mig 0.006 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.007 0.006 0.01 0.006 0.005 0.004
(0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.01) (0.011)
hospi albed 0.011*** 0.008* 0.009** 0.008* 0.011*** 0.011** 0.009** 0.011*** 0.01*** 0.009**
(0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004)
Secu i y conce n
c ime a e 0.063 0.061 0.061 0.062 0.062 0.063 0.059 0.063 0.064 0.063
(0.069) (0.071) (0.07) (0.069) (0.069) (0.07) (0.07) (0.069) (0.069) (0.07)
e o ism 0.091 0.026 0.056 0.066 0.089 0.08 0.06 0.088 0.07 0.058
(0.057) (0.063) (0.062) (0.056) (0.063) (0.059) (0.061) (0.057) (0.065) (0.048)
(con inued)
Table 5.
GLS Resul o RPP
(wi h June elec ion and
ime dummies)
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
247
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
In e ac ion e ms
Eas *gdppc 0.001**
(0)
Eas * egionalg ow h 0.154**
(0.073)
Eas *ag isha e 0.02
(0.019)
Eas * illi e acy a e 0.072**
(0.028)
Eas *uni e si yedu 0.045
(0.03)
Eas *oldpopula ion 0.069**
(0.034)
Eas *ne mig 0.035
(0.026)
Eas *hospi albed 0.001**
(0.001)
Eas *c ime a e 4.326***
(0.421)
Eas * e o ism 0.1
(0.095)
Time dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
_cons 0.367*** 0.317*** 0.336*** 0.321*** 0.364*** 0.373*** 0.333*** 0.361*** 0.353*** 0.326***
(0.077) (0.082) (0.079) (0.077) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.077) (0.076) (0.081)
Obse a ions 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324
No e(s): S anda d e o s a e in pa en heses. ***p< 0.01, **p< 0.05, *p< 0.1
Sou ce(s): Au ho s’calcula ions
Table 5.
REPS
9,3
248
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Poli ical ine ia
NMPlag 0.645*** 0.75*** 0.65*** 0.683*** 0.736*** 0.656*** 0.694*** 0.647*** 0.698*** 0.692***
(0.031) (0.022) (0.031) (0.025) (0.034) (0.031) (0.03) (0.031) (0.031) (0.032)
Economic ac o s
gdppe capi a 0.006 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.006 0 0.001
(0.006) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) (0.007)
egionalg ow h 0.201*** 0.084** 0.214*** 0.159*** 0.183*** 0.212*** 0.205*** 0.2*** 0.198*** 0.195***
(0.042) (0.042) (0.041) (0.039) (0.038) (0.037) (0.039) (0.041) (0.038) (0.039)
ag isha e 0.126*** 0.062*** 0.157*** 0.105*** 0.088*** 0.126*** 0.118*** 0.123*** 0.109*** 0.107***
(0.023) (0.021) (0.022) (0.018) (0.023) (0.022) (0.023) (0.022) (0.023) (0.023)
Socio-economic and socio-demog aphic ac o s
illi e acy a e 0.33*** 0.335*** 0.32*** 0.053 0.429*** 0.366*** 0.387*** 0.332*** 0.417*** 0.405***
(0.023) (0.022) (0.021) (0.047) (0.036) (0.032) (0.033) (0.023) (0.036) (0.037)
uni e si yedu 0.179** 0.261*** 0.276*** 0.214*** 0.351*** 0.153* 0.25*** 0.193** 0.26*** 0.287***
(0.09) (0.072) (0.091) (0.074) (0.097) (0.092) (0.094) (0.09) (0.097) (0.096)
oldpopula ion 0.06 0.028 0.055 0.131*** 0.014 0.024 0.043 0.066 0.012 0.017
(0.047) (0.05) (0.043) (0.04) (0.052) (0.046) (0.049) (0.046) (0.049) (0.05)
ne mig 0.01 0.009 0.01 0.01 0.013 0.01 0 0.009 0.012 0.014*
(0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) (0.01) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
hospi albed 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.001 0
(0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
Secu i y conce n
c ime a e 0.028 0.031 0.036 0.012 0.042 0.037 0.035 0.027 0.04 0.038
(0.041) (0.043) (0.04) (0.043) (0.041) (0.039) (0.041) (0.041) (0.04) (0.04)
e o ism 0.046 0.115*** 0.048 0.024 0.101** 0.07** 0.079** 0.044 0.076** 0.046
(0.029) (0.033) (0.035) (0.02) (0.041) (0.034) (0.034) (0.029) (0.038) (0.042)
(con inued)
Table 6.
GLS Resul o NMP
(wi h No embe
elec ion and ime
dummies)
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
249
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
In e ac ion e ms
Eas *gdppc 0.004***
(0)
Eas * egionalg ow h 0.325***
(0.037)
Eas *ag isha e 0.157***
(0.02)
Eas * illi e acy a e 0.332***
(0.028)
Eas *uni e si yedu 0.099*
(0.058)
Eas *oldpopula ion 0.217***
(0.048)
Eas *ne mig 0.077***
(0.024)
Eas *hospi albed 0.006***
(0.001)
Eas *c ime a e 2.076
(1.778)
Eas * e o ism 0.095
(0.081)
Time dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
_cons 0.194*** 0.162*** 0.125** 0.149*** 0.129** 0.173*** 0.137** 0.197*** 0.158*** 0.161***
(0.055) (0.043) (0.054) (0.056) (0.055) (0.051) (0.057) (0.055) (0.057) (0.059)
Obse a ions 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324
No e(s): S anda d e o s a e in pa en heses. ***p< 0.01, **p< 0.05, *p< 0.1
Sou ce(s): Au ho s’calcula ions
Table 6.
REPS
9,3
250
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Poli ical ine ia
NMPlag 0.248*** 0.247*** 0.261*** 0.212*** 0.171*** 0.204*** 0.226*** 0.243*** 0.195*** 0.187***
(0.048) (0.047) (0.048) (0.044) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.046) (0.045)
Economic ac o s
gdppe capi a 0.089*** 0.094*** 0.093*** 0.104*** 0.081*** 0.087*** 0.085*** 0.09*** 0.086*** 0.088***
(0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.013) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.013)
egionalg ow h 0.047 0.006 0.065 0.002 0.081 0.072 0.048 0.052 0.045 0.082
(0.061) (0.066) (0.061) (0.06) (0.058) (0.061) (0.062) (0.061) (0.062) (0.057)
ag isha e 0.055 0.026 0.088* 0.007 0.047 0.071 0.056 0.055 0.054 0.031
(0.048) (0.049) (0.049) (0.048) (0.045) (0.047) (0.049) (0.048) (0.049) (0.044)
Socio-economic and socio-demog aphic ac o s
illi e acy a e 0.005 0.057 0.018 0.222** 0.054 0.045 0.052 0.015 0.059 0.125*
(0.081) (0.079) (0.079) (0.086) (0.074) (0.077) (0.077) (0.081) (0.078) (0.071)
uni e si yedu 1.472*** 1.462*** 1.485*** 1.551*** 1.564*** 1.362*** 1.507*** 1.461*** 1.445*** 1.446***
(0.209) (0.195) (0.206) (0.199) (0.203) (0.209) (0.207) (0.21) (0.209) (0.199)
oldpopula ion 0.243** 0.082 0.219** 0.18* 0.189* 0.278*** 0.191* 0.245** 0.291*** 0.248**
(0.107) (0.098) (0.104) (0.101) (0.101) (0.104) (0.105) (0.107) (0.108) (0.101)
ne mig 0.033*** 0.039*** 0.034*** 0.035*** 0.035*** 0.032*** 0.037*** 0.033*** 0.033*** 0.031***
(0.01) (0.009) (0.01) (0.01) (0.009) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.009)
hospi albed 0.024*** 0.025*** 0.027*** 0.027*** 0.02*** 0.022*** 0.023*** 0.023*** 0.021*** 0.021***
(0.008) (0.007) (0.008) (0.007) (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.007)
Secu i y conce n
c ime a e 0.005 0.016 0.011 0.002 0.011 0.007 0.008 0.005 0.006 0.01
(0.117) (0.112) (0.113) (0.124) (0.109) (0.113) (0.112) (0.117) (0.113) (0.11)
e o ism 0.417*** 0.438*** 0.411*** 0.44*** 0.35*** 0.41*** 0.369*** 0.415*** 0.399*** 0.084
(0.078) (0.074) (0.076) (0.076) (0.083) (0.076) (0.083) (0.078) (0.079) (0.068)
(con inued)
Table 7.
GLS Resul o NMP
(wi h June elec ion and
ime dummies)
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
251
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
In e ac ion e ms
Eas *gdppc 0.002
(0.001)
Eas * egionalg ow h 0.297**
(0.117)
Eas *ag isha e 0.101*
(0.055)
Eas * illi e acy a e 0.246***
(0.055)
Eas *uni e si yedu 0.241***
(0.091)
Eas *oldpopula ion 0.055
(0.124)
Eas *ne mig 0.033
(0.041)
Eas *hospi albed 0.003
(0.002)
Eas *c ime a e 0.843
(1.99)
Eas * e o ism 0.631***
(0.097)
Time dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
_cons 0.857*** 0.873*** 0.9*** 0.971*** 0.766*** 0.825*** 0.814*** 0.859*** 0.818*** 0.846***
(0.131) (0.132) (0.13) (0.128) (0.122) (0.131) (0.131) (0.131) (0.132) (0.118)
Obse a ions 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324
No e(s): S anda d e o s a e in pa en heses. ***p< 0.01, **p< 0.05, *p< 0.1
Sou ce(s): Au ho s’calcula ions
Table 7.
REPS
9,3
252
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Poli ical ine ia
PDPlag 0.545*** 0.878*** 0.63*** 0.797*** 0.785*** 0.699*** 0.782*** 0.578*** 0.812*** 0.787***
(0.041) (0.03) (0.034) (0.027) (0.044) (0.037) (0.033) (0.042) (0.029) (0.037)
Economic ac o s
gdppe capi a 0.001 0.012 0.015** 0.001 0.001 0.009 0.008 0 0.014 0.018*
(0.007) (0.009) (0.007) (0.005) (0.011) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.009) (0.009)
egionalg ow h 0.096* 0.05 0.031 0.101** 0.029 0.022 0.047 0.079 0.063 0.01
(0.054) (0.077) (0.056) (0.044) (0.073) (0.063) (0.063) (0.06) (0.069) (0.071)
ag isha e 0.018 0.012 0.084*** 0.009 0.02 0.032 0.042** 0.018 0.011 0.015
(0.017) (0.023) (0.023) (0.014) (0.022) (0.021) (0.017) (0.018) (0.021) (0.019)
Socio-economic and socio-demog aphic ac o s
illi e acy a e 0.044 0.477*** 0.141*** 0.054** 0.413*** 0.296*** 0.337*** 0.077 0.471*** 0.432***
(0.049) (0.065) (0.044) (0.023) (0.07) (0.044) (0.061) (0.054) (0.061) (0.066)
uni e si yedu 0.035 0.309*** 0.361*** 0.01 0.026 0.167 0.169* 0.058 0.361*** 0.394***
(0.082) (0.1) (0.09) (0.046) (0.129) (0.103) (0.101) (0.095) (0.109) (0.113)
oldpopula ion 0.006 0.149*** 0.031 0.018 0.136** 0.469*** 0.098* 0.004 0.206*** 0.173***
(0.042) (0.055) (0.034) (0.026) (0.061) (0.054) (0.051) (0.046) (0.054) (0.054)
ne mig 0.004 0.026* 0.004 0.007 0.022* 0.013 0 0.005 0.037*** 0.023*
(0.009) (0.014) (0.008) (0.007) (0.013) (0.009) (0.012) (0.01) (0.012) (0.013)
hospi albed 0.014*** 0.018*** 0.01*** 0.006** 0.019*** 0.02*** 0.014*** 0.017*** 0.016*** 0.019***
(0.004) (0.005) (0.004) (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005)
Secu i y conce n
c ime a e 0.015 0.05 0.032 0.019 0.042 0.037 0.031 0.017 0.043 0.042
(0.028) (0.058) (0.053) (0.037) (0.059) (0.052) (0.061) (0.029) (0.06) (0.056)
e o ism 0.308*** 0.437*** 0.444*** 0.177*** 0.486*** 0.567*** 0.44*** 0.31*** 0.466*** 0.159**
(0.105) (0.138) (0.132) (0.069) (0.143) (0.115) (0.126) (0.116) (0.137) (0.072)
(con inued)
Table 8.
GLS Resul o PDP
(wi h No embe
elec ion and ime
dummies)
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
253
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
In e ac ion e ms
Eas *gdppc 0.025***
(0.002)
Eas * egionalg ow h 0.09
(0.151)
Eas *ag isha e 0.782***
(0.056)
Eas * illi e acy a e 0.81***
(0.057)
Eas *uni e si yedu 0.517***
(0.144)
Eas *oldpopula ion 0.916***
(0.087)
Eas *ne mig 0.448***
(0.053)
Eas *hospi albed 0.037***
(0.003)
Eas *c ime a e 15.105***
(2.624)
Eas * e o ism 0.987***
(0.358)
Time dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
_cons 0.093 0.153* 0.173** 0.065 0.086 0.214** 0.119 0.088 0.153* 0.21**
(0.077) (0.086) (0.071) (0.049) (0.11) (0.087) (0.081) (0.085) (0.087) (0.089)
Obse a ions 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324
No e(s): S anda d e o s a e in pa en heses. ***p< 0.01, **p< 0.05, *p< 0.1
Sou ce(s): Au ho s’calcula ions
Table 8.
REPS
9,3
254
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Poli ical ine ia
PDPlag 0.114*** 0.099*** 0.112*** 0.1*** 0.083*** 0.103*** 0.098*** 0.112*** 0.092*** 0.064***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.023) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.021)
Economic ac o s
gdppe capi a 0.096*** 0.101*** 0.1*** 0.106*** 0.095*** 0.095*** 0.094*** 0.096*** 0.092*** 0.093***
(0.013) (0.013) (0.012) (0.012) (0.013) (0.013) (0.013) (0.013) (0.014) (0.013)
egionalg ow h 0.036 0.027 0.043 0.015 0.056 0.057 0.047 0.04 0.053 0.038
(0.059) (0.062) (0.056) (0.056) (0.059) (0.056) (0.06) (0.058) (0.059) (0.057)
ag isha e 0.009 0.018 0.008 0.03 0.005 0 0.012 0.01 0.009 0.011
(0.045) (0.046) (0.042) (0.042) (0.047) (0.044) (0.047) (0.046) (0.047) (0.044)
Socio-economic and socio-demog aphic ac o s
illi e acy a e 0.024 0.039 0.011 0.123 0.038 0.002 0.02 0.018 0.037 0.08
(0.081) (0.076) (0.074) (0.088) (0.076) (0.074) (0.076) (0.08) (0.076) (0.074)
uni e si yedu 1.467*** 1.434*** 1.492*** 1.574*** 1.539*** 1.42*** 1.477*** 1.472*** 1.463*** 1.565***
(0.207) (0.201) (0.204) (0.195) (0.208) (0.203) (0.21) (0.207) (0.21) (0.202)
oldpopula ion 0.252** 0.16 0.243** 0.211** 0.236** 0.257** 0.235** 0.253** 0.318*** 0.261**
(0.105) (0.098) (0.101) (0.105) (0.104) (0.101) (0.104) (0.105) (0.106) (0.101)
ne mig 0.031*** 0.034*** 0.031*** 0.031*** 0.033*** 0.031*** 0.032*** 0.031*** 0.03*** 0.031***
(0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.01) (0.009)
hospi albed 0.013** 0.01 0.013** 0.015*** 0.01* 0.012* 0.011 0.013** 0.012* 0.012**
(0.006) (0.007) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.007) (0.006) (0.007) (0.006)
Secu i y conce n
c ime a e 0.007 0.011 0.01 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.004
(0.109) (0.107) (0.109) (0.115) (0.105) (0.109) (0.108) (0.109) (0.109) (0.106)
e o ism 0.157* 0.215** 0.142 0.191** 0.17* 0.175** 0.158* 0.159* 0.194** 0.064
(0.087) (0.094) (0.087) (0.093) (0.094) (0.086) (0.09) (0.088) (0.091) (0.071)
(con inued)
Table 9.
GLS Resul o PDP
(wi h June elec ion and
ime dummies)
De e minan s
o elec o al
beha io in
Tu key
255
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
In e ac ion e ms
Eas *gdppc 0.002
(0.001)
Eas * egionalg ow h 0.138
(0.122)
Eas *ag isha e 0.087*
(0.049)
Eas * illi e acy a e 0.153***
(0.052)
Eas *uni e si yedu 0.131
(0.094)
Eas *oldpopula ion 0.071
(0.118)
Eas *ne mig 0.023
(0.041)
Eas *hospi albed 0.002
(0.002)
Eas *c ime a e 0.98
(2.153)
Eas * e o ism 0.455***
(0.127)
Time dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
_cons 0.842*** 0.851*** 0.882*** 0.926*** 0.825*** 0.819*** 0.815*** 0.838*** 0.811*** 0.833***
(0.119) (0.126) (0.112) (0.107) (0.122) (0.117) (0.127) (0.12) (0.129) (0.117)
Obse a ions 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324 324
No e(s): S anda d e o s a e in pa en heses. ***p< 0.01, **p< 0.05, *p< 0.1
Sou ce(s): Au ho s’calcula ions
Table 9.
REPS
9,3
256
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Appendix
The supplemen a y ma e ial o his a icle can be ound online.
Abou he au ho s
Ozge Kozal is cu en ly wo king a Ege Uni e si y, Depa men o Economics as esea ch assis an and
lec u e . He esea ch in e es s include economic de elopmen , poli ical economy, indus ializa ion and
ecological economy.
Mehme Ka acuka is cu en ly wo king a Ege Uni e si y Depa men o Economics and is Resea ch
Fellow a Hein ich-Heine-Uni e si y o D€
usseldo . His esea ch in e es s include poli ical economics,
egional economics, in o ma ion and communica ion echnologies and applied econome ics. Mehme
Ka acuka is he co esponding au ho and can be con ac ed a : [email p o ec ed],
[email p o ec ed]
Jus us Haucap is he Founding Di ec o o he D€
usseldo Ins i u e o Compe i ion Economics
(DICE) and P o esso o Economics a Hein ich-Heine-Uni e si y o D€
usseldo . F om 2006 o 2014 he
se ed as membe o he Ge man Monopolies Commission, which he also chai ed o ou yea s (2008–
2012). He is ac ing Vice Chai man o he Ge man Ne wo ks Agency’s council o scien i ic ad iso s and
Regula Ad iso o he Ge man Go e nmen . His esea ch mainly ocuses on compe i ion and an i us
issues as well as he egula ion o ne wo k indus ies and digi aliza ion.
Fo ins uc ions on how o o de ep in s o his a icle, please isi ou websi e:
www.eme aldg ouppublishing.com/licensing/ ep in s.h m
O con ac us o u he de ails: [email p o ec ed]
REPS
9,3
264
