ii
Nasse A. S. Tuqan
Assessmen o he Ag icul u al Wa e Use in
Je icho Go e no a e Using Se iciency
Unde Clima e Change Unce ain y
Doc o al Thesis
Doc o al P og amme in Ci il Enginee ing
Wo k de eloped unde he supe ision o :
P o esso Dou o Naim Haie
No embe 2020
ii
DECLARATION
COPYRIGHTS AND TERMS OF USE BY THIRD PARTIES
Thi d pa ies can use his academic wo k as long as he in e na ionally accep ed ules and good
p ac ices a e espec ed in e ms o copy igh and he o he ele an igh s.
The e ms o use by hi d pa ies a e a ailable in he license below.
I use s need pe mission o use he con en o his wo k unde condi ions ha a e no p o ided
in he indica ed license, hey mus con ac he au ho h ough he Reposi ó iUM o Minho
Uni e si y.
License g an ed o use s
© 2020 by he au ho . Submi ed o he Reposi ó iUM o Minho Uni e si y o publica ion unde
he e ms and condi ions o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY) license:
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/
iii
I dedica e his wo k o he memo y o my la e a he . To my inspi ing mo he . To Amma who
was he i s o suppo i . To he u u e o Sophia.
To Lama who ne e ga e up on me.

i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Pu suing his jou ney o doc o al esea ch wo k has been challenging, en iching, and li e
changing. I would like o acknowledge and exp ess my g ea app ecia ion o a g oup o indi iduals
and o ganisa ions who signi ican ly con ibu ed o he comple ion o his hesis.
Fi s , I would like o acknowledge and hank my supe iso , P o esso Naim Haie, o his limi less
suppo , inspi a ion, and guidance. He has always o e ed me unlimi ed access, uncondi ional
suppo , and he op imism I needed o keep me heading o wa d. Wi hou his men o ship and
guidance, I would ha e ne e eached he le el whe e I am igh now. Second, I would like o
acknowledge and hank my olde b o he , Amma Tuqan, who pe sonally unded he ui ion ees
o he i s h ee yea s o my doc o al p og amme. Wi hou his endless mo i a ing suppo , lo e,
and compassion, I would ha e ne e been able o join he p og amme in he i s place.
In addi ion, I would like o hank Ms. Gi a a Budei i o es ablishing ou connec ion wi h Eng.
Mazen Ghoneim, Head o he Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y (PWA). Likewise, I would like o hank
Eng. Ghoneim o a anging ou in e iew wi h Eng. Deeb Abdulgha ou , Di ec o -Gene al o Wa e
Resou ces Managemen a PWA. Besides, I would like o hank Eng. Abdulgha ou o his g ea
con ibu ion o his wo k. I would also like o hank my iend, Eng. Abdul-Rahim Ba qawi, who
helped me o each a me s in ha egion o pa icipa e in ou su ey. Co espondingly. I would
like o dedica e a special hanks o e e y single a me who ook he ime o pa icipa e.
I am e y g a e ul o Minho Uni e si y, o he Doc o al P og amme o Ci il Enginee ing s a ,
especially he sec e a y o ice and he academic se ices, and o he Te i o y, En i onmen and
Cons uc ion Cen e (CTAC) o hei suppo . I ha e always ound mysel in a e y welcoming
and coope a i e en i onmen while pu suing bo h my mas e and doc o al s udies a UMinho.
Finally, and mos impo an ly, I would like o exp ess my g ea es g a i ude o my wi e, Lama
Alhaddad, who has been he mos in luen ial pe son du ing my doc o al jou ney and my li e.
Lama has o e ed me e e y second she had o keep me mo i a ed, ensu ing my wo k-li e- amily-
s udy balance, eminding me o he big pic u e, and se ing up my p io i ies in he igh place.
Two yea s ago, she ga e bi h o ou Sophia, and e e since, she has been guiding me o become
a a he who can make a di e ence. I would ha e ne e achie ed he end o his jou ney wi hou
ha ing Lama nex o me.
STATEMENT OF INTEGRITY
I he eby decla e ha ing conduc ed his academic wo k wi h in eg i y. I con i m ha I ha e no
used plagia ism o any o m o undue use o in o ma ion o alsi ica ion o esul s along he
p ocess leading o i s elabo a ion.
I u he decla e ha I ha e ully acknowledged he Code o E hical Conduc o he Uni e si y o
Minho.
Uni e si y o Minho, No embe 2020.
Full Name: Nasse A. S. Tuqan
Signa u e:
Nasse A. S. Tuqan
Digi ally signed by Nasse A. S. Tuqan
Da e: 2020.11.24 14:06:39 Z
i
ABSTRACT
Add essing wa e use e iciency in he Middle Eas is challenging due o he limi ed wa e
esou ces a ailabili y, geopoli ical complexi y, clima ic condi ions, and a a ie y o manage ial
issues. G oundwa e is he dominan wa e esou ce o Pales inians amid hei inabili y o access
o he na u al wa e esou ces. Je icho Go e no a e cons i u es mos o he Pales inian pa o he
Jo dan Valley and ep esen s a high economic signi icance o he na ion, especially in ag icul u e.
This made he ag icul u al wa e use in Je icho as he main use o he Eas e n Aqui e Basin
(EAB). The objec i e o his doc o al wo k is o assess he e iciency o he ag icul u al wa e use
in Je icho, which we de ined as he Wa e Use Sys em (WUS), and i s in e ac ion wi h he main
sou ce, he Eas e n Aqui e Basin (EAB), using he Sus ainable E iciency (Se iciency) me hod.
In addi ion, we aim, h ough de eloping scena ios, o unde s and he impac s o he unce ain y
associa ed wi h clima e change on ou WUS’s pe o mance and i s wa e a iables. Se iciency is
a composi e mul i-le el e iciency indica o ha is based on wa e balance and conside s he
use ulness c i e ion o he WUS’s a iables. As Se iciency equi es, he analysis was no limi ed
o he quan i ies o he di e en wa e pa h ypes wi hin ou WUS, bu i also conside ed hei
quali y and bene icial weigh s. We su eyed local a me s, in e iewed a wa e manage , and
collec ed an ex ensi e da ase o achie e an unde s anding o he wa e pa hs dynamics and
conclude ou wa e balance schema ic. Besides, we simula ed six di e en scena ios unde wo
ep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways (RCPs), namely RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, co esponding o
he p ojec ed changes in empe a u e and p ecipi a ion in h ee in e als (yea s 2025, 2055, and
2090) o assess he impac o clima e change on wa e use e iciency. The esul s demons a ed
ha : 1. Imp o ing he quali y o e u ns has a g ea posi i e impac . 2. Inc easing wa e
abs ac ions is no bene icial i i is no linked o an inc ease in yield p oduc ion. 3. P ecipi a ion
a es can in luence wa e use e iciency. 4. Mo e ca e ul ea men o he unwan ed plan s and a
selec ion o high socio-economic alue c ops would enhance Se iciency. Finally, he esul s o
he de eloped scena ios unde clima e change p ojec ions indica ed a mino impac on he
e iciency i sel , since he sys em is al eady ope a ing unde sca ce wa e condi ions; howe e , i
showed an an icipa ed signi ican impac on he sus ainabili y o he main sou ce, EAB.
Keywo ds: Eas e n Aqui e Basin; i iga ion managemen ; Se iciency; wa e c isis in Pales ine;
wa e use e iciency.
ii
RESUMO
A alia a e iciência do uso da água no Médio O ien e cons i ui um desa io impo an e uma ez
que a disponibilidade de água é mui o limi ada, a si uação geopolí ica é mui o complexa, as
condições climá icas são des a o á eis e a ges ão de ecu sos híd icos ap esen a di e sas
agilidades. A água sub e ânea cons i ui o ecu so híd ico dominan e pa a os Pales inianos, não
sendo possí el o acesso a ou as massas de água. A p o íncia de Je icó é a maio á ea da
Pales ina no ale do io Jo dão e ap esen a um papel económico impo an e, especialmen e no
sec o da ag icul u a. Assim, o uso ag ícola em Je icó é esponsá el pelas cap ações mais
in ensas no aquí e o les e (
Eas e n Aqui e Basin
- EAB). O obje i o des e abalho é a alia a
e iciência do uso da água na ag icul u a em Je icó, sendo es e o sis ema selecionado pa a es udo
(
Wa e Use Sys em
– WUS), assim como a sua in e ação com a p incipal on e de água (EAB),
u ilizando-se o Mé odo de E iciência Sus en á el (
Se iciency
). Além des a a aliação, o am
conside ados cená ios pa a analisa mudanças ci cuns anciais no sis ema, ais como as
mudanças climá icas, de modo a quan i ica o seu impac o no desempenho do WUS. O
Se iciency
é um indicado compos o po á ios ní eis de e iciência, que é baseado no balanço
híd ico e conside a um c i é io de u ilidade das a iá eis do WUS. Em con o midade com os
equisi os do
Se iciency
, a análise conside ou, além das quan idades dos di e en es ipos de
luxos de água, a sua qualidade e o seu bene ício. Fo am en e is ados ag icul o es locais e um
ges o esponsá el pela ges ão da água e oi ecolhido um conjun o de dados pa a comp eende
a dinâmica dos luxos da água no sis ema selecionado, concluindo-se com a imposição de
balanço híd ico nulo pa a o WUS. Fo am simulados seis cená ios de al e ações climá icas
co esponden es a di e en es alo es de emissões combinados com dis in os ho izon es
empo ais (
ep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways -
RCP) — RCP2.6 e RCP6.0 — conside ando
as mudanças p e is as pa a a empe a u a e a p ecipi ação (anos 2025, 2055 e 2090). Os
esul ados demons a am que: (1) melho a a qualidade dos luxos de e o no em um g ande
impac o posi i o; (2) o aumen o da cap ação de água não é bené ico se não es i e inculado a
um aumen o na p odução ag ícola; (3) as a iações de p ecipi ação podem in luencia a
e iciência; e (4) um a amen o mais cuidadoso das espécies ege ais in aso as e uma seleção
de cul u as de al o alo socioeconómico aumen a iam a e iciência do uso da água. Po im, os
cená ios desen ol idos pa a a aliação do impac o das mudanças climá icas indica am uma
meno in luência nos alo es da e iciência, uma ez que o sis ema já es á sob condições de
escassez de água se e as, mos ando, no en an o, um impac o signi ica i o na sus en abilidade
da p incipal on e de água, a EAB.
Pala as-cha e:
Eas e n Aqui e Basin
; e iciência do uso da água; escassez da água na
Pales ina; ges ão de i igação;
Se iciency
.
xi
Figu e 4.4: Wa e mo emen and esou ces in he s udy a ea ................................................ 69
Figu e 4.5: Popula ion o Je icho Go e no a e om 1997 o 2021 (P ojec ion)....................... 70
Figu e 4.6: Te i o ial Ju isdic ion Di ision in Jo dan Valley. ................................................... 71
Figu e 4.7: Soil classi ica ion o he s udy a ea ...................................................................... 72
Figu e 4.8: Geology o he s udy a ea .................................................................................... 73
Figu e 4.9: Fa me s' assessmen o hei d ip i iga ion sys ems’ quali y ................................ 77
Figu e 4.10: Schema ic o he ac ual wa e pa h ins ances (WPIs) lowing in and ou o wa e
use sys em (WUS) ................................................................................................................ 79
Figu e 4.11: Annual a e age ni a e con en in selec ed wells in he Jo dan Valley .................. 80
Figu e 5.1: Se iciency esul s a meso le el conside ing a me s and manage s objec i es. ... 85
Figu e 5.2: Se iciency esul s o SC1, SC2, SC3, and SC4 .................................................... 87
Figu e 6.1: A ea o a mlands a ia ion, popula ion g ow h, and p ecipi a ion pe season
be ween 1993 and 2011 in Je icho go e no a e .................................................................... 95
Figu e 6.2: Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2025 ................................................................ 97
Figu e 6.3: Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2055 ................................................................ 99
Figu e 6.4: Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2090 .............................................................. 100
Figu e 6.5: Se iciency esul s unde RCP6.0-2025 .............................................................. 102
Figu e 6.6: Se iciency esul s unde RCP6.0-2055 .............................................................. 104
Figu e 6.7: Se iciency esul s unde RCP6.0-2090 .............................................................. 105
Figu e 6.8: Pe cen age change o PP, VA, and ET unde RCP2.6 pa hway scena ios ............ 107
Figu e 6.9: Pe cen age change o PP, VA, and ET unde RCP6.0 pa hway scena ios ............ 108
Figu e I.1: A abic e sion o he su ey ................................................................................ 136
Figu e I.2: English e sion o he su ey .............................................................................. 137
Figu e I.3: Geog aphic dis ibu ion o su eyed a me s by illage o ci y .............................. 138
Figu e I.4: Numbe o a me s acco ding o hei answe s abou hei a m’s a ea in Dunums
.......................................................................................................................................... 138
Figu e I.5: Numbe o a me s acco ding o hei answe s abou he quan i y o wa e hey
mon hly use o i iga ion .................................................................................................... 139
Figu e I.6: Numbe o a me s acco ding o hei answe s abou hei use o a i icial e ilise s
and pes icides .................................................................................................................... 139

x
Figu e I.7: Numbe o a me s acco ding o hei answe s abou hei assessmen o he weeds
pe cen age among hei c ops ............................................................................................. 140
Figu e I.8: Pe cen age o su eyed a me s based on he me hod o i iga ion hey use ........ 140
Figu e I.9: Numbe o a me s acco ding o hei answe s abou hei i s and second sou ces
o i iga ion wa e ................................................................................................................ 141
Figu e I.10: Pe cen age o su eyed a me s based on hei posi ion o eclaimed was ewa e
use in i iga ion ................................................................................................................... 141
Figu e I.11: Pe cen age o su eyed a me s based on he highes p ice hey ag ee o pay o
eclaimed was ewa e ......................................................................................................... 142
Figu e I.12: Fa me s’ answe s o he pola ques ions .......................................................... 143
Figu e III.1: CROPWAT model using he me ological da a om Je icho s a ion .................... 151
x i
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1.1: Wes Bank Wadis Long- e m Annual Discha ge ....................................................... 8
Table 2.1: P ojec ed wa e demand and de ici (assuming no inc ease o 2004 supplies) ....... 35
Table 4.1: Me eo ological cha ac e is ics o s udy a ea ex ac ed om Je icho wea he s a ion.
............................................................................................................................................ 65
Table 4.2: E apo anspi a ion (ET) modelling esul s o he op 5 plan ed c ops o each
ca ego y ............................................................................................................................... 75
Table 4.3: A ea unde di e en i iga ion me hods (km2). ...................................................... 76
Table 4.4: Summa y o he wa e ins ances quan i ies ........................................................... 79
Table 4.5: WUS ull cha ac e is ics ........................................................................................ 83
Table 6.1: A ea o a mlands, popula ion, and p ecipi a ion pe season be ween 1993 and 2011
in Je ich go e no a e ............................................................................................................ 94
Table 6.2: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP2.6-2025 .............................................................. 96
Table 6.3: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP2.6-2055 .............................................................. 98
Table 6.4: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP2.6-2090 ............................................................ 100
Table 6.5: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP6.0-2025 ............................................................ 102
Table 6.6: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP6.0-2055 ............................................................ 103
Table 6.7: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP6.0-2090 ............................................................ 105
Table III.1: ET de ails and esul s ........................................................................................ 153
Table III.2: ET de ails and esul s unde 0.5°C inc ease ...................................................... 158
Table III.3: ET de ails and esul s unde 1.0°C inc ease ...................................................... 162
Table III.4: ET de ails and esul s unde 1.5°C inc ease ...................................................... 166
Table III.5: ET de ails and esul s unde 3.0°C inc ease ...................................................... 170
x ii
GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS
AMS
Ame ican Me eo ological Socie y
AQUASTAT
FAO's Global In o ma ion Sys em on Wa e and Ag icul u e
ARIJ
Applied Resea ch Ins i u e–Je usalem
ASAE
Ame ican Socie y o Ag icul u al Enginee s
ASCE
Ame ican Socie y o Ci il Enginee s
BAU
Business as Usual
BC
Be o e Ch is
BGR
Ge man ac onym o "Bundesans al ü Geowissenscha en und
Rohs o e", meaning: Ge man Fede al Ins i u e o Geosciences and
Na u al Resou ces
CCME
Canadian Council o Minis e s o he En i onmen
CE
Classical E iciency
CGE
Compu able Gene al Equilib ium
CIA
Cen al In elligence Agency
CIHEAM
F ench ac onym o "Cen e In e na ional de Hau es É udes Ag onomiques
Médi e anéennes", meaning: In e na ional Cen e o Ad anced
Medi e anean Ag onomic S udies
CMIP5
Coupled Model In e compa ison P ojec - Phase 5
CROPWAT
C op wa e equi emen s calcula ion ool unde clima ic ci cums ances
CRU CL
Clima ic Resea ch Uni - Clima ology
CWD
C op Wa e Demand
CWQGs
Canadian Wa e Quali y Guidelines
CWQI
Canadian Wa e Quali y Index
DC
Dis ic o Columbia
EAB
Eas e n Aqui e Basin
EE
E ec i e E iciency
x iii
EQA
Pales inian En i onmen Quali y Au ho i y
ET
E apoT anspi a ion
FAO
Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion o he Uni ed Na ions
FI
Fa me I iga ion
GDP
G oss Domes ic P oduc
GDWQI
Global D inking Wa e Quali y Index
GHG
G eenHouse Gas
GIS
Geog aphic In o ma ion Sys em
GTZ
Ge man ac onym o "Deu sche Gesellscha ü Technische
Zusammena bei ", meaning: Ge man Agency o Technical Coope a ion
HYDE
His o y Da abase o he Global En i onmen
ICC
In e na ional C iminal Cou
ICID
In e na ional Commission on I iga ion & D ainage
IHP
In e go e nmen al Hyd ological P og amme
IPCC
In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change
IS
I iga ion Sagaci y
JAWRA
Jou nal o he Ame ican Wa e Resou ces Associa ion
JWC
Join Wa e Commi ee
KRB
Kano Ri e Basin
MOA
Pales inian Minis y o Ag icul u e
MOPIC
Pales inian Minis y o Planning and In e na ional Coope a ion
NAP
Na ional Adap a ion Plan
NEAB
No h-Eas e n Aqui e Basin
NGO
Non-Go e nmen al O ganisa ion
NIGP
Po uguese ac onym o "Núcleo de In es igação em Geog a ia e
Planeamen o", meaning: Resea ch G oup on Geog aphy and Planning
NIS
New Is aeli Shekel
xix
NR
NonReusable
OCHA
Uni ed Na ions O ice o he Coo dina ion o Humani a ian A ai s
OLR
Ou going Longwa e Radia ion
OS
O he Sou ces
PCBS
Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics
PCM
Pa allel Clima e Model
PM
Penman-Mon ei h
PNA / PA
Pales inian Na ional Au ho i y / Pales inian Au ho i y
PP
P ecipi a ion
pp
Pe cen age poin
PRECIS
P o iding REgional Clima es o Impac s S udies
PWA
Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y
RCM
Regional Clima e Model
RCP
Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hway
RF
Re u n Flow
RFF
Resou ces o he Fu u e
RP
Po en ial Re u n
SAM
Social Accoun ing Ma ices
SDG
Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
SOMs
Sel -O ganising Maps
SSP
Sha ed Socioeconomic Pa hway
SWR
Sola Sho wa e Radia ion
TI
Tensiome e I iga ion
UK
Uni ed Kingdom
UN
Uni ed Na ions
UNCTAD
Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen

xx
UNEP
Uni ed Na ions En i onmen al P og am
UNESCO
Uni ed Na ions Educa ional, Scien i ic and Cul u al O ganiza ion
UN-ESCWA
Uni ed Na ions Economic and Social Commission o Wes e n Asia
UNFCCC
Uni ed Na ions F amewo k Con en ion on Clima e Change
US
Uni ed S a es
USCID
Uni ed S a es Commi ee on I iga ion and D ainage
USD
Uni ed S a es Dolla
VA
Volume o Abs ac ed wa e
VD
Volume o wa e Ups eam
VU
Volume o wa e Downs eam
WAB
Wes e n Aqui e Basin
WAFA
A abic ac onym o "ةينيطسلفلا ءابنلأا ةلاكو", meaning: Pales ine News
Agency
WBWD
Wes Bank Wa e Depa men
WEAP
Wa e E alua ion and Planning
WHO
Wo ld Heal h O ganisa ion
WIT
Wessex Ins i u e o Heal h Resea ch & De elopmen
WPI
Wa e Pa h Ins ances
WPT
Wa e Pa h Types
WQI
Wa e Quali y Index
WQSAM
Wa e Quali y Sys ems Assessmen Model
WUS
Wa e Use Sys em
WWAP
Wo ld Wa e Assessmen P og amme
WWDR
Wo ld Wa e De elopmen Repo
WWTP
Was eWa e T ea men Plan
1
CHAPTER ONE. INTRODUCTION
Wa e is a li e main componen ha gua an ees c ea u es’ exis ence, con inui y, and h i e. Fo
humankind, one o he essen ials ha made us who we a e and le us achie e wha we ha e
accomplished is he colou o ou plane , blue. Wa e ex ends beyond being he subs ance in
which he i s o m o li e on ea h de eloped. I has undoub edly become a weal h indica o , a
basic elemen in heal h and hygiene, an impo an d i e o enaissance, a wa cause, and a
peace gua dian.
Back in his o y, humans chose o es ablish hei ea ly o ms o communi ies o en in p oximi y o
a wa e body. The mo e complex and de eloped human communi ies became o e ime, he
g ea e such choice ou ances o s had enhanced in planning and de elopmen . Thinking o all o
he g ea ancien ci ilisa ions, om he Mesopo amian ci ilisa ions (including he Sume ian,
Assy ian, Akkadian, and Babylonian) o he succession o he g ea Pha aoh mona chies, we
in ui i ely link hem o a wa e body. I did no ake much o old ci ies’ ounde s o ealise ha
wa e bodies a e no only c ucial o suppo basic li e needs (d inking, i iga ion, ishing, and
sani a ion), bu hei impo ance u he ex ends o include o he i al elemen s such as
anspo a ion, ade, en e ainmen , mili a y pu poses, and p o ec ion. Mos i no all g ea
ancien ci ies, which made i un il oday, i no lou ished, ha e a g ea le el o p oximi y o a
leas one wa e body, especially i e s.
The way we p e iously in e ac ed wi h wa e bodies had con ibu ed o di e en pe cep ions abou
wa e as a esou ce. Nowadays, al hough we no longe ha e ha much dependence when we
build ou new ci ies o g ow he exis ing ones on he p oximi y o wa e bodies, ne e heless his
is only because ou unde s anding o wa e as a esou ce and he way we app oach i s
managemen has become mo e ad anced.
Wa e oday has a le el o engagemen in human ac i i ies ha is unp eceden ed. Food, ene gy,
manu ac u ing, global ade, and e en mode n echnology a e only a ew examples o sec o s o
which hei de elopmen is dependen on wa e .
2
1.1. Wa e Resou ces in Na u e
Wa e is con inuously in mo ion. Schola s cha ac e ise ha mo ion in wha we know as he
hyd ological cycle, which is cons ained by he law o conse a ion o mass (wa e balance). Such
dynamics esul ed o ha e wa e as a enewable sou ce ( esou ce). While wa e is p ese ed in
quan i y, howe e , i may e y well change in loca ion, o m, quali y, and hus use ulness.
As we unde s and wa e esou ces oday, we can spli hem in o wo main ca ego ies:
1. Con en ional esou ces
a. Su ace wa e :
i. Ri e s
ii. Lakes
iii. Ice and snow
b. G oundwa e
i. Wells
ii. Sp ings
c. Glacie s and icecaps
2. Uncon en ional esou ces
a. Desalina ion
b. Was ewa e ea men and euse
c. Rainwa e ha es ing
d. A mosphe ic mois u e ha es ing
Schola s ha e widely conside ed wa e as he mos essen ial among na u al esou ces (C. J.
Vö ösma y e al., 2010) co e ing 70.90% o he blue plane ’s su ace (CIA, 2013). As illus a ed
in Figu e 1.1, 96.5% o ea h’s wa e is ound in seas and oceans, while 1.7% in g oundwa e
(0.77% esh and 0.93% saline). The e is 1.7% in glacie s and he ice caps o An a c ica and
G eenland, and a smalle ac ion in o he la ge wa e bodies; 0.001% in he ai as apou , clouds
( o med o solid and liquid wa e pa icles suspended in ai ), and p ecipi a ion. Only 2.5% o he
Ea h’s wa e is eshwa e , and 98.7% o ha quan i y is in ice and g oundwa e . Less han 0.3%
o all eshwa e is in i e s, lakes, and he a mosphe e, and an e en smalle amoun o he
Ea h’s eshwa e (0.003%) is con ained wi hin biological bodies and manu ac u ed p oduc s
(Pe e H. Gleick, 1993).
3
I is impo an o unde s and ha eshwa e is con inuously mo ing, lowing in i e s, e apo a ing
and sp eading as apou , alling as ain o snow, o in il a ing slowly h ough soil ex u es as
g oundwa e (Bidlack, Wang, & Clemens, 2004). Wa e e apo a es annually om he oceanic
su ace (502,800 km3) and lands (74,200 km3). The same amoun o wa e alls as a mosphe ic
p ecipi a ion (458,000 km3 on oceans and 119,000 km3 on lands). The di e ence be ween
p ecipi a ion and e apo a ion om he land su ace (44,800 km3/yea ) ep esen s he o al uno
o he Ea h’s i e s (42,700 km3/yea ) and di ec g oundwa e uno o he ocean (2,100
km3/yea ) (Shiklomano , 1998). This wa e cycle, which is cons an ly con olled by he law o
conse a ion o mass, is he p incipal sou ce o eshwa e o suppo li e essen ials and human
ac i i ies.
Figu e 1.1: Dis ibu ion o Ea h's wa e
Sou ce: (Pe e H. Gleick, 1993)
1.2. Wa e Use Sys ems and Sec o s
Since wa e con ibu es o all human de elopmen ac i i ies, i is highly compe i i e among se e al
use s. Ca ego ising wa e use by sec o s has a conside able signi icance o managemen - ela ed
pu poses. Such ac i i y is basic o wa e esou ces’ alloca ion, o e s a ool o be e
unde s anding o he complex wa e use sys ems, and plays a key ole in shaping s akeholde s’
decisions.
10
(a)
The Moun ain Aqui e
A high-quali y eshwa e esou ce in he egion (Laza ou, 2016) ha has h ee main basins:
1. The Wes e n Aqui e Basin (WAB)
I is he la ges basin among he h ee, whe e 1,767 km2 o he en i e basin’s a ea is wi hin
he Wes Bank bo de s. I s long- e m echa ge anges be ween 318-430 Mm3 (PWA, 2018).
In 2011, Is aelis wi hd ew 411 Mm3 om WAB, while Pales inians had 25 Mm3 (PWA, 2012).
2. The No h-Eas e n Aqui e Basin (NEAB)
I is he smalles basin among he h ee, whe e 981 km2 o he en i e basin’s a ea is wi hin
he Wes Bank. I s long- e m echa ge anges be ween 135-187 Mm3 (PWA, 2018). In 2011,
Is aelis wi hd ew 103 Mm3 om NEAB, while Pales inians had 20 Mm3 (PWA, 2012).
3. The Eas e n Aqui e Basin (EAB)
I is loca ed en i ely in he Wes Bank and has an a ea o 2,767 km2. I s long- e m echa ge
anges be ween 125-197 Mm3 (PWA, 2018). The low olume o echa ge is due o he
clima ic condi ions o i s loca ion, which we will elabo a e on la e . In 2011, Is aelis wi hd ew
50 Mm3 om EAB, while Pales inians had 42 Mm3. PWA claims ha Is ael abs ac s an
addi ional 100 Mm3 om Dead Sea sp ings; and es ic s he Pales inians om de eloping
any in as uc u e o ge addi ional abs ac ions (PWA, 2012).
(b)
The Coas al Aqui e
The en i e Gaza S ip (365 km2) lays abo e he coas al aqui e basin, which has a long- e m
echa ge anges be ween 55-60 Mm3. Pales inians wi hd aw om he coas al aqui e in s agge ing
numbe s. Fo example, in 2011, he o al numbe o abs ac ions o bo h ag icul u al and u ban
uses was a ound 178.8 Mm3, h ee imes he long- e m a e age echa ge. As a esul , he quali y
o hese abs ac ions su e s om seawa e in usion and upli o he deep b ine wa e le el. The
Pales inian Au ho i y epo ed ha mo e han 97% o he wa e es ed samples did no mee he
wa e quali y s anda ds o he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (PCBS & PWA, 2019).

11
1.6. O e iew o he Ag icul u al Wa e Use in Je icho Go e no a e
and P oblem S a emen Desc ip ion
The Jo dan Valley (Figu e 1.4) is named a e i s di ide he Jo dan Ri e . I ex ends be ween
Nablus, Je usalem, and Heb on Moun ains chain (known in Is aeli sou ces as Judaean and
Sama ia Moun ains) in he wes and he no hwes e n Jo danian highlands in he eas . The
Pales inian pa o he alley has an es ima ed a ea o 845 km2. Adminis a i ely, wo Pales inian
go e no a es sha e he as majo i y o he alley: he en i e
Je icho & Al-Aghwa
Go e no a e (in
sho , Je icho) and he eas e n hal o
Tubas and he No he n Valleys
Go e no a e (in sho ,
Tubas).
The Valley ep esen s a g ea economic alue, mainly in ag icul u e due o i s yea long con enien
clima ic condi ions, o bo h Pales inians and Is aelis. Al hough he a ea unde conside a ion alls
en i ely wi hin he Wes Bank, i is pa o a egion whe e Is ael p oduces 80% o i s da es and
45% o i s bananas (Is aeli Minis y o Ag icul u e, 2019). As o Pales inians, he Jo dan Valley
con ains 50% o hei ag icul u al lands in he Wes Bank, p oducing 60% o he Pales inian’s o al
yield o ege ables he e (WAFA, 2015).
Acco ding o he la es census o he Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics (PCBS) in 2017, he
popula ion o Je icho is 50,001, which accoun s o 1.1% o Pales ine’s popula ion and makes i
he leas populous go e no a e (PCBS, 2018). The main eason behind his low popula ion
densi y is due o cons ain s ha a e limi ing he economic de elopmen , especially in ag icul u e
as sugges ed by mul iple local, Is aeli, and in e na ional epo s (ARIJ, 2016; B’Tselem, 2013;
UNCTAD, 2015). Tha is o no su p ise conside ing he geopoli ical complexi y o his speci ic pa
o Wes Bank. The Oslo II Ag eemen in 1995 (a ollow-up ag eemen o he Decla a ion o
P inciples known as Oslo I, which bo h sides signed in 1993) come in in e es . The ag eemen
designed he e i o ial ju isdic ion di iding he Wes Bank in o a eas A, B, and C. Pales inians
ha e con ol o e a eas A and B, bu subs an ial es ic ions in ega ds o land access,
in as uc u e and wa e esou ce de elopmen in a ea C (Wo ld Bank, 2009).
In ega ds o he main wa e issues o conce n ha impac he ag icul u al wa e use sec o in
he Jo dan Valley, i can be iden i ied as he ollowing:
12
Figu e 1.4: Loca ion o he Pales inian pa o Jo dan Valley
Sou ce: (Hamada, Viei a, & Ghodieh, 2015)
1.6.1. Limi ed Wa e Resou ces
As men ioned ea lie , Pales inians ely on g oundwa e o 95% o hei supplies. Pu chased wa e
om Is ael, ea ed was ewa e and desalina ion cons i u e he emaining 5%. The p ima y
pu pose o he pu chased wa e om he Is aeli na ional wa e company Meko o is o municipal
uses only. In addi ion, he le el o was ewa e ea men is below he s anda ds o di ec euse
in municipal and ag icul u al uses. Las , he desalina ed Medi e anean seawa e is a sou ce ha
is only a ailable in Gaza S ip. All PWA epo s sugges ed ha Pales inians in Je icho solely
13
depended in 2011 on abs ac ed wa e om he Eas e n Aqui e Basin (EAB) o hei ag icul u al
ac i i ies (PWA, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017).
1.6.2. A id Clima ic Condi ions
The a ea is gene ally cha ac e ised as a id. In e ms o opog aphy, ele a ions a y om a ound
300 m abo e o 400 m below sea le el (ele a ion ends o dec ease heading sou heas wa d
close o he Dead Sea) (MOPIC, 1998). Such wea he condi ions a e sui able o g owing ui s
and ege ables, including da es, banana, oma o, and cucumbe . Mo eo e , he ypical Jo dan
Valley’s wa me win e s enable a me s o ha e ea ly ha es seasons, which is economically
ad an ageous, especially o expo s.
P ecipi a ion a es a y wi hin a sho dis ance om up o 300 mm pe yea in he no h, down
o less han 100 mm pe yea close o he Dead Sea (EcoPeace Middle Eas , 2015). The 25-yea -
a e age o annual p ecipi a ion eco ded by he Je icho wea he s a ion is 147 mm. These
p ecipi a ion a es accompanied by high e apo a ion eco ds esul in a g ea e dependence on
i iga ion. The PCBS epo ed in 2011 ha 97% o he c opland a eas in Je icho we e i iga ed
(PCBS, 2012).
1.6.3. Wa e Managemen Sho comings
The Pales inians ha e been placing hei e o s in o expanding access o he a ailable esou ces
and explo ing he po en ials o de elop addi ional esou ces. An ex ensi e e iew o he
go e nmen al epo s exposes a clea absence o s a egic planning and managemen insigh s
apa om he a o emen ioned e o s. Fo ins ance, he PWA S a egic Wa e Resou ce and
T ansmission Plan (PWA, 2014) and he Wa e Sec o Re o m Plan 2016–2018 (PWA, 2016)
ackle illing he wa e gap mainly h ough ealloca ion. The e is an absence o discussion abou
enhancing e icien use p ac ices, acili ies ehabili a ion, and demand managemen , howe e ,
mul iple schola s ha e sugges ed he la e wo app oaches as iable op ions o add ess wa e
sho age in he egion (Bu sche, 2011; Haddad, 1998; She ah, 2017).
14
1.6.4. Geopoli ical Complexi y
87% o he Pales inian pa o he Jo dan Valley alls wi hin A ea C (EcoPeace Middle Eas , 2015),
making he sus ainabili y o he Pales inian ag icul u al ac i i ies in ha a ea e y di icul .
Acco ding o an economic moni o ing epo o he Ad Hoc Liaison Commi ee o The Wo ld Bank
(Wo ld Bank, 2012), ag icul u e’s con ibu ion o he Pales inian GDP d opped om 9.3% in 1999
o 4% in 2012. The epo immedia ely links he d op o ha e he Jo dan Valley by i sel
cons i u ing 46% o o al a ea C, denying Pales inians om a majo po ion o one- hi d o
g oundwa e ese es and housands o e ile hec a es in he Wes Bank. In ligh o hese
ci cums ances, wha Pales inians can do is o ensu e making he mos o e e y single d op o
wa e , hus e iciency a ises a key ac o .
1.7. Resea ch F amewo k
In he ollowing subsec ions, we will layou he esea ch amewo k by s a ing he esea ch’s
mo i a ion, cla i ying i s objec i es, highligh ing i s con ibu ion, and p esen ing a summa y o he
hesis s uc u e.
1.7.1. Resea ch Mo i a ion
Amids he e o s o each peace in he Middle Eas , wa e a ises as one o he mos con o e sial
opics. One o he main discussion poin s on he nego ia ion able be ween he di e en i als
ha e been ci cling wa e sha es’ alloca ion. While exploi ing he di e en op ions o ge access o
addi ional wa e esou ces and o de elop a solid in as uc u e o enhance he adop ed
managemen app oaches a e all iable e o s, hey become less e ec i e as long as he wa e
use e iciency was no made a he co e o he decision-making p ocess. In eali y, he Pales inians
a e ailing o add ess his ma e hus a .
One o he key challenges, which pa icipa es in he Pales inian ailu e o add ess wa e use
e iciency as a decision-making indica o , is he capabili y o cons uc a comp ehensi e
unde s anding o he dynamics o a wa e use sys em (WUS) and he in e ac ions be ween i s
di e en a iables. Mo eo e , he limi ed esou ces ( inancial, human, and echnical) and
15
expe ise shape a pe cep ion o u gency among he wa e manage s o p io i ise in es men in
expanding wa e quan i ies a he han inc easing e iciency.
Unde in o mal coo dina ion wi h he Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y, we a emp in his wo k o
highligh he signi icance o conside wa e use e iciency as a decision-making indica o o
es ablish solid wa e policies. Fu he mo e, we aim o highligh he ole o unde s anding
e iciency dynamics in o de o achie e a be e unde s anding o he po en ial u u e scena ios
and hus adding he comp ehensi eness elemen in o he policies.
1.7.2. Resea ch Objec i es
The main objec i e o his esea ch is o assess he ag icul u al wa e use e iciency in he
Pales inian pa o Jo dan Valley du ing he 2010/2011 season. We selec ed his season in
pa icula because i is he mos ecen season o which he Pales inian o icial sou ces p o ide
a comple e da a se ha i s he pu pose o his s udy. Je icho go e no a e, which cons i u es
mo e han 70% o he Valley’s a ea, used mo e han 62% o he o al Pales inian abs ac ions
om he Eas e n Aqui e Basin (EAB) (PWA, 2012) making he go e no a e’s ag icul u al sec o
he main use o EAB. I ep esen s he majo economic ac i i y in he egion due o he yea long
a ou able clima ic condi ions. As men ioned ea lie , he Jo dan Valley con ains 50% o he
Pales inian ag icul u al lands in he Wes Bank, being esponsible o 60% o hei o al ege ables’
p oduc ion he e (WAFA, 2015).
The main esea ch objec i e can be b oken down in o he ollowing i e sub-objec i es:
1. To achie e a comp ehensi e unde s anding o he di e en wa e a iables in he
hyd ological cycle o he wa e use sys em (WUS) unde conside a ion, which is he
ag icul u al wa e use sec o in Je icho Go e no a e. This unde s anding mus sa is y he
law o wa e balance.
2. To demons a e he ela ionship be ween he di e en wa e a iables conside ing
quan i y, quali y, and bene icial dimensions in e ms o hei impac on he WUS’s
e iciency.
3. To highligh he signi icance o wa e use e iciency as a ool in he decision-making
p ocess and he wa e managemen app oaches.

16
4. To demons a e how Se iciency can be an e ec i e ool in highligh ing he weak poin s
and imp o emen s oppo uni ies wi hin ou WUS in pa icula , and he Pales inian
ag icul u al sec o in gene al.
5. To unde s and he impac s on ou WUS’s pe o mance and i s wa e a iables
conside ing he unce ain y associa ed wi h clima e change and u u e demand
inc eases.
1.7.3. Resea ch Con ibu ion
This esea ch wo k con ibu es di ec ly o he knowledge in he ield o wa e use e iciency
assessmen . I s added alue is ep esen ed in p o iding a model ha can be ollowed in Pales ine
o ill he gap c ea ed by he absence o any o icial wa e use e iciency discussions. Up o he
au ho ’s knowledge a he ime o w i ing his hesis, he e a e no publica ions ha assess he
pe o mance o any wa e use in he s udy a ea. We could ha dly ind s udies abou assessmen s
o wa e use e iciency in Pales ine, apa om a ew bu impo an publica ions ha come ac oss
e icien i iga ion echniques o maximise local c op yields, e.g., Rahil and Qanadillo (2015),
which a e no wa e -cen ic and conside wa e as one o he inpu s in o he e alua ion o o he
esou ces o ou pu s. Fo example, c op yield, as an objec i e, is in luenced by wa e as well as
e ilise s, seed a ie y, pes icides, soil ypes, e c.
O he a emp s, such as Al-Juneidi and Isaac (2000) and Alsha i , Fe oz, Kleme , and Raab
(2008), assessed he e iciency o local i iga ion me hods and he ela i e e iciencies o wa e
supply sys ems a he municipal le el as wa e managemen s a egies. Howe e , all o hese
assessmen s we e based on an ou da ed e iciency e alua ion app oach, namely Classical
E iciency (CE), which is de ined as he a io o he wa e bene icially used o o al wa e applied.
As simple and basic as i may appea , he e is a undamen al law behind CE, which is he
absence o wa e balance. Many esea che s highligh ed he CE’s inabili y o add ess c i ical
elemen s such as i iga ion wa e eco e y, wa e euse, wa e quali y, bene icial aspec s o all
he wa e lows, and o dis inguish be ween wa e consump ion and wa e use. This s udy will ely
on one o he mos no el wa e use e iciency assessmen app oaches called Sus ainable
E iciency (Se iciency), which is comp ehensi ely wa e -cen ic and sys emic.
17
1.7.4. Thesis S uc u e
The s uc u e o his hesis consis s o se en chap e s. In chap e one, we p esen a gene al
o e iew o he ield ela ed o his esea ch, a b ie backg ound o he wa e p oblem in Pales ine,
and he esea ch amewo k. In he second chap e , we p o ide a de ailed e iew o he a ailable
li e a u e in his domain o esea ch. Chap e h ee co e s Se iciency, which is he me hod ha
he e iciency assessmen is based on, and p esen he me hodology ha ou clima e change
scena ios’ building will ollow. Then, in chap e ou , we en ich he eade wi h an ex ended se
o da a and maps o he s udy a ea, i s wa e esou ces, and gene al cha ac e is ics. In addi ion,
we p o ide in chap e ou de ails abou he di e en a iables needed o apply Se iciency (wa e
quali y, quan i y, and bene icence). In he i h chap e , we p esen he esul s and hei
in e p e a ion o he Se iciency applica ion and apply a sensi i i y analysis h ough hypo hesising
ou scena ios in o de o unde s and he impac s o some po en ial changes o sugges ed
imp o emen s on he esul s. In chap e six, we de elop di e en scena ios unde clima e change
unce ain y and discuss he impac s. Finally, in chap e se en, we p esen he conclusion o his
esea ch wo k and ecommenda ions o u u e po en ial de elopmen s.
18
CHAPTER TWO. LITERATURE REVIEW
In his chap e , we will na iga e h ough he a ailable li e a u e in ele ance o his esea ch. Fi s ,
we will come ac oss he eme ging issue o wa e sca ci y om a global pe spec i e in o de o
p o ide a b ie o e iew o he la es global posi ion in his ega d. Then, we will b ie ly explo e
he mos common wa e esou ces managemen app oaches o highligh he need o in eg a ed
e o s. In he hi d sec ion, we will in oduce o he eade clima e change as a concep , he main
d i e s behind i , and a b ie o e iew o he a ailable li e a u e abou i s impac on wa e
esou ces. In sec ion 2.4, we will b ie ly e iew some o he publica ions ha in es iga ed he
impac o wa e ealloca ion policies.
Then, sec ion 2.5 will en ich he eade wi h a his o ical p esen a ion o he e olu ion in he
app oaches o assess wa e use e iciency s a ing om classical e iciency, eaching he
Se iciency me hod. The six h sec ion will elabo a e on he a ailable li e a u e ha add essed he
di e en wa e c isis ac o s in Pales ine including he popula ion g ow h, clima e, wa e
managemen , and he geopoli ical complexi y. Las , sec ion 2.7 will go h ough he a ailable
s udies and publica ions ha in es iga ed wa e use e iciency o he ag icul u al sec o in
Pales ine and Je icho Go e no a e.
2.1. Global Wa e Sca ci y
F eshwa e is an essen ial elemen o well-being and sus ainable socio-economic de elopmen .
Acco ding o he UN Wo ld Wa e De elopmen Repo (WWDR) o 2014, olume 1: Wa e and
Ene gy, a ange o se ious global and egional issues ha h ea en he li elihood o a huge
popula ion, especially he h ee billion li ing on less han 2.5 USD pe day, has a link o wa e
(WWAP & UNESCO Di ec o -Gene al, 2014). These issues include clima e, po e y, hunge ,
heal h, and inance.
Demog aphe s and a chaeologis s in he ex ensi e esea ch o Goldewijk, Beusen, D ech , and
Vos (2011) es ima es he global popula ion in 10,000 BC was 2 million. 10,000 yea s la e , i
was s ill unde he 200 million h eshold (Figu e 2.1). As we al eady know oday, he global
popula ion exceeded 7,600 million people and as app oaching 8 billion. While he human
19
popula ion is booming, indi idual li e expec ancy has ema kably inc eased and ou li es yle has
d ama ically changed du ing he las 100 yea s. Besides, go e nance app oaches changed
signi ican ly in he pos -wa e a in a way ha accen ua ed economic g ow h as a op p io i y. As
a esul o all o hese apid unp eceden ed changes, ou ecosys em and na u al esou ces
su e ed an ex ao dina y deg ada ion.
Figu e 2.1: 10,000 yea s o global popula ion and ca bon dioxide concen a ion
Sou ces: Popula ion da a om Hyde 3.1 da abase. CO2 concen a ion da a om Dome C and Mauna Loa da ase s.
Plo ed by Pe e Gleick in 2019
In many egions, wa e sho age is conside ed as one o he mos c ucial issues. One- ou h o
he wo ld’s popula ion is concen a ed in a id o semi-a id a eas, whe e wa e esou ces
managemen is e ol ing as one o he mos di icul and u gen p oblems (Kondili, Kaldellis, &
Papapos olou, 2010). Wa e demand and supply subs an ially a y in hose egions pe iodically,
which makes he managemen p ac ices, including demand managemen and supply chain
managemen , e y challenging. UN es ima es he numbe o people whose igh o wa e is no
sa is ied ( ega dless o he eason) could be as high as 3.5 billion, while 2.5 billion emain wi hou
access o imp o ed sani a ion (WWAP & UNESCO Di ec o -Gene al, 2014).
26
Figu e 2.7: Reco ded global mean empe a u e a iance o land and wa e om 1850 o 2012
(a) Reco ded global a e age o land and wa e su ace empe a u e a iances be ween 1850 and 2012 ela i e o
he mean empe a u e o 1961−1990. The uppe se ies ep esen he annual a e age alues, while he lowe se ies
ep esen he decadal a e age alues. (b) Map o he eco ded land and wa e su ace empe a u e a iances
be ween 1901 and 2012. Sou ce: (Cubasch e al., 2013).

27
S a ing wi h A nell (1999), he p o ided a de ailed assessmen o he po en ial consequences o
clima e change, which will a ec he global hyd ological sys ems and wa e esou ces. Rela edly,
Adams and Peck (2008) p o ided an in o ma i e o e iew o he expec ed physical and economic
e ec s o clima e change on wa e esou ces ( ocusing on wa e sca ci ies). Whe eas, C. J.
Vö ösma y e al. (2010) p esen ed a comp ehensi e assessmen o global h ea s o human
wa e secu i y, among which clima e change is one o he mos se ious.
Mo eo e , o he au ho s in es iga ed he e ec s o clima e change on wa e esou ces in ce ain
egions a he han he en i e globe. This is use ul since clima e change e ec s a e no he same
e e ywhe e. Fo ins ance, Ba ne e al. (2004) desc ibed he esul s o an assessmen o he
po en ial e ec s o clima e change on wa e esou ces in he wes e n Uni ed S a es ( he i e
basins o Columbia, Sac amen o/San Joaquin, and Colo ado). Also, Wa en and Holman (2012)
used baseline and u u e clima e p ojec ions and a daily soil wa e balance model in o de o
de e mine he po en ial impac s o clima e change on he Elan Valley, mid-Wales, which supplies
he public wa e ne wo k o Bi mingham ci y in he Uni ed Kingdom.
Anyhow, when alking abou he na ion-scale e ec s o clima e change on wa e esou ces, he
wo ld’s mos populous coun y and a massi e emi e o g eenhouse gases, China, has o be
men ioned. A comp ehensi e in es iga ion abou he impac s o clima e change on China’s wa e ,
especially p ecipi a ion, was p esen ed by Piao e al. (2010). They a gue ha , aside om he
clea wa ming ha has occu ed in China in ecen decades, cu en unde s anding does no
allow a clea assessmen esou ces and ag icul u e, and hus hey ecommend u u e wo k o
imp o e egional simula ions.
Modelling me hods o clima e change impac s on wa e esou ces cons i u e a conside able
po ion o he a ailable li e a u e in his ield. Fo example, he Pa allel Clima e Model (PCM),
which is suppo ed by he US Depa men o Ene gy, was inclusi ely explained and s udied by
Washing on e al. (2000). Addi ionally, Guo, Wang, Xiong, Ying, and Li (2002) p oposed and
de eloped a mac o-scale and semi-dis ibu ed mon hly wa e balance model o simula e and
p edic he sensi i i ies o hyd ology and wa e esou ces o global wa ming. O he au ho s
con ibu ed o his subjec by making compa isons be ween di e en models, such as Slaugh e ,
Man el, and Hughes (2014). They compa ed he Wa e E alua ion and Planning (WEAP) model
and he Wa e Quali y Sys ems Assessmen Model (WQSAM) ega ding possible clima e change
e ec s on wa e quali y. Thei esul s showed ha WEAP does no simula e wa e quali y wi hin
28
ese oi s and wa e quali y simula ion acili ies wi hin WEAP a e oo simple, while WQSAM
demons a ed se e al ad an ages o wa e quali y modelling.
As he e a e many wo ks in he li e a u e demons a ing wa e esou ces sensi i i y o clima e
change, upg ading wa e esou ces planning app oaches, he e o e, is a necessa y ac ion. In his
ega d, Wood, Le enmaie , and Palme (1997) iden i ied majo unce ain ies in wa e esou ces
clima e change assessmen s as: a) clima e modelling skill; b) e o s in egional downscaling o
clima e model p edic ions; and c) unce ain ies in u u e demands. They designed a simula ion
s udy o p o ide a be e unde s anding o hese unce ain ies. Also, Cha les J. Vö ösma y,
G een, Salisbu y, and Lamme s (2000) p esen ed nume ical expe imen s combining clima e
model ou pu s, wa e budge s, and socioeconomic in o ma ion in o de o assess he u u e
adequacy o eshwa e esou ces. Mo eo e , A nell and Lloyd-Hughes (2014) p o ided a
p elimina y assessmen o he e ec s o clima e change a es, i s pa e ns, and he expec ed
popula ion g ow h on egional and global exposu e o wa e esou ces s ess. Rela edly, om
ano he pe spec i e hough, Lea esley (1994) e iewed he assessmen o clima e change
impac s using hyd ologic models, which p o ides a amewo k o concep ualise and in es iga e
he ela ionships be ween clima e and wa e esou ces.
2.4. Impac s o Wa e Alloca ion Policies
Decision-make s adop wa e ( e)alloca ion policies o deal wi h challenges, imp o e condi ions,
o mi iga e se e e impac s o he bene i o he use s, wa e esou ces, and he su ounding
en i onmen o a WUS. Topics such as wa e sho age, enhancing g ow h and de elopmen ,
adap ing o clima e change impac s on wa e esou ces, he sus ainabili y o he a ailable
esou ces and he en i onmen , e c. ha e o be add essed and e lec ed in hese policies.
Many au ho s add essed he impac s o wa e ( e)alloca ion policies on se e al aspec s. Fo
example, Seung, Ha is, and MacDia mid (1998) and Seung, Ha is, Englin, and Ne usil (2000)
analysed he economic impac s o ans e ing su ace wa e om i iga ed ag icul u e o
ec ea ional use using he Compu able Gene al Equilib ium (CGE) model. Also, Fang, Roe, and
Smi h (2006), Juana, S zepek, and Ki s en (2010), Qin, Su, B esse s, Jia, and Wang (2013),
Q aisha (2013), Dai, Zhang, Han, Huang, and Geng (2016), and Ga ick, Chau a d, and Rawlins
(2019) analysed he impac o wa e ealloca ion om ag icul u e o o he sec o s (u ban,
29
indus ial, and o he s) on he economy and household income in di e en egions. Whe eas,
Roseg an and Ringle (1999) in es iga ed he po en ial impac s o wa e ans e s om
ag icul u al o u ban and indus ial a eas on global ood supply and demand. They ound ha
comp ehensi e e o ms a e equi ed o mi iga e he po en ially incon enien impac s o wa e
ans e s o local communi ies and o sus ain c op yield and ou pu g ow h o mee inc easing
ood demands a he global le el.
In addi ion, Bjo nlund, Zuo, Pa ack, Wheele , and de Loë (2011) app oached he same issue o
i iga ion wa e ealloca ion om ano he pe spec i e. They in es iga ed he public accep ance o
his ma e , in addi ion o whe he such accep ance di e s be ween u ban and u al esiden s.
They concluded ha u ban inhabi an s a e mo e likely o p e e go e nmen in e en ion while
u al inhabi an s a e mo e likely o suppo policies ha aim o p o ec a me s' wa e igh s. They
also ound ha people, bo h in u ban and u al a eas, could be ca ego ised in o h ee ca ego ies
depending on hei a i udes owa ds wa e and he en i onmen : 1) p o-en i onmen , 2) p o-
economy, and 3) undecided. In he same con ex , Sa enije and an de Zaag (2002) a gued om
a di e en pe spec i e abou wa e p icing which should p ima ily se e he pu pose o inancial
sus ainabili y h ough cos eco e y in addi ion o necessa ily d i e adequa e a en ion o equi y
conside a ions. On he o he hand, Fielding e al. (2013) made a huge e o o p omo e wa e
conse a ion in he ield expe imen ally. They epo ed an expe imen al s udy o es he long-
e m impac o h ee di e en in e en ions on household wa e consump ion. Also, A a al and
Wang (2013) and To ajada and Joshi (2013) ocused on he impo an issue o public
pa icipa ion, whe e wa e conse a ion equi es he engagemen o he public and p i a e sec o s
as well as o he socie y a la ge.
Rega ding he en i onmen al impac s o wa e ( e)alloca ion policies, Colby, McGinnis, and Rai
(1991) a gued abou he con inui y o wa e ealloca ion o e lec en i onmen al bene i s
alongside he adi ional uses o wa e . They p esen ed some examples om he Ame ican ecen
his o y abou changes in wa e alloca ion, o ced by law, o mi iga e haza ds h ea ening he
na u e. Also, Howe, Schu meie , and Shaw J (1986) discussed he sho comings o wa e use s,
especially ela ed o quan i y and quali y e u n low e ec s, con i ming ha hey can be
minimised h ough changes in he adminis a i e amewo k o he wa e igh s sys em. They
p o ed ha an e icien wa e alloca ion sys em mus in eg a e quan i y and quali y managemen .
Fu he mo e, Webe (2001) modelled a sugges ed op imal alloca ion o su ace wa e and
pollu ion igh s in a i e sys em wi h wa e quali y cons ain s in o de o answe he ques ion o
30
whe he i is possible o main ain wa e quali y unde a ce ain al e na i e mechanism o
alloca ing su ace wa e and pollu ion igh s.
2.5. E olu ion o Wa e Use E iciency F om Classical E iciency o
Se iciency
The app oaches and me hodologies o assess wa e use e iciency a y because eaching a
comp ehensi e app oach ha ep esen s and e alua es he dynamics and pe o mance o a
ce ain wa e use sys em (WUS) is a complex ma e . The be e we unde s and he complexi y
o he g ea numbe o a iables in luencing wa e use sys ems, he mo e c i ical schola s ha e
been owa d he classical de ini ion o e iciency – Classical E iciency (CE): he a io o he wa e
bene icially used o o al deli e ed. CE was adop ed by O son Winso Is aelsen (1932) and O. W.
Is aelsen (1950), which a e pionee ed publica ions in i iga ion. La e , u he s udies wen mo e
in-dep h abou CE in i iga ion such as Feddes, Kowalik, and Za adny (1978) in hei book abou
he heo y o ield wa e use and c op p oduc ion, and F ench and Schul z (1984) who
in es iga ed he ela ions be ween he c op o whea yield and wa e use om a echnical
s andpoin . Following he same pa h, Bu e al. (1997) p esen ed a de ailed de ini ion and
amewo k o CE in i iga ion du ing hei p esen a ion and e alua ion o i iga ion pe o mance
indica o s.
The echnical enginee ing elemen in enhancing wa e use e iciency in i iga ion gained a en ion
among se e al au ho s. Fo ins ance, On a, Loo , and Bansko a (1995) de eloped and applied
an op imisa ion model o an i iga ion sys em o land and wa e alloca ion du ing he d y season
in o de o ob ain op imum c opping pa e ns o di e en managemen s a egies. Simila ly,
Small and Rimal (1996) e alua ed unde a ying deg ees o wa e sho age, using a simula ion
model, he i iga ion pe o mance implica ions o al e na i e wa e dis ibu ion ules o a d y
season. Wi hin his con ex , Howell (2001) discussed he concep o enhanced CE in i iga ion
and i s impac s on wa e conse a ion om di e en iewpoin s. In o de o app oach enhanced
wa e e icien use in i iga ion, he ecommended inc easing he ou pu pe uni o wa e and
educing wa e losses o unusable sinks (enginee ing aspec s), educing wa e deg ada ion
(en i onmen al aspec s), and ealloca e wa e o highe p io i y uses (socie al aspec s). One las
example, Goha and Wa d (2011) e alua ed he po en ial economic bene i s ha can be
31
suppo ed by Egyp 's i iga ion wa e use h ough de eloping an in eg a ed ca chmen scale
amewo k.
CE’s use as an e iciency assessmen me hod in i iga ion is common wo ldwide up o da e (Al-
Juneidi & Isaac, 2000; Çaki , Kanbu oglu-Çebi, Al in as, & Ozdemi , 2017; Ib agimo e al., 2007;
Liu e al., 2017). Howe e , many esea che s highligh ed he CE’s inabili y o add ess c i ical
elemen s such as i iga ion wa e eco e y, wa e euse, wa e quali y and o dis inguish be ween
wa e consump ion and wa e use (Haie & Kelle , 2014; M. E. Jensen, Ha ison, Ko en, &
Robinson, 1980; Ma in E. Jensen, 2007; Pe ei a, Co de y, & Iaco ides, 2012; Willa dson, Allen,
& F ede iksen, 1994). They emphasized he necessi y o imp o ing he de ini ion o wa e use
e iciency using a mo e comp ehensi e app oach. Fu he mo e, Willa dson e al. (1994) and
Allen, Clemmens, and Willa dson (2005) discussed e ms such as e apo a ed, eusable, non-
eusable, and consumed ac ions.
Hence, impo an con ibu ions aiming owa d a mo e comp ehensi e and comple e
unde s anding o wa e use e iciency and wa e sys em pe o mance e alua ion s a ed aking
place in he las couple o decades. An explici example o his ansi ion is I iga ion Sagaci y (IS),
which is de ined as he a io o i iga ion wa e bene icially and easonably used o he o al
i iga ion wa e applied. This new e iciency e m (IS) was i s p esen ed by K use (1978) and
la e imp o ed by Solomon and Bu (1999). Ne e heless, Kelle and Kelle (1995) in oduced a
mo e comp ehensi e concep in o he knowledge and unde s anding o wa e use e iciency o
o e come he limi a ions o CE, which is E ec i e E iciency (EE). They de ined EE as he i iga ion
wa e consumed (e apo a ed) by c ops di ided by he e ec i e use o wa e ( he e ec i e in low
minus he e ec i e ou low).
The majo s ep o wa d in he de ini ion and app oach o Kelle and Kelle (1995) is he abili y o
i s applica ion on o he uses o wa e and o he measu es o change in wa e quali y o alue, in
o he wo ds, he inclusion o wa e quali y dimension. This impo an addi ion, which came a e
solely quan i a i e app oaches o wa e use e iciency, pa ed he oad owa d o he signi ican
con ibu ions in his ega d. La e , Haie and Kelle (2008) de eloped EE models based on wa e
quan i y and quali y, wi h he possibili y o conside ing wa e euse ( ecycling), o wo scales ( he
i s is called P ojec EE and he second is called Basin EE). They compa ed hen be ween CE
and EE esul s and ound ha CE alues we e less han EE due o wa e euse absence in
calcula ions. Thus, he eal impo ance o hei wo k comes om hei de ence a ou ing EE o e

32
CE, especially a e he inc eased oices among esea che s ad oca ing he use o di e en
concep s ins ead o e iciency concep s.
Finally, Haie and Kelle (2012) made ano he majo s ep o wa d by inco po a ing a hi d
dimension o he de ini ion o wa e use e iciency, which is he bene icence o wa e use. They
employed he concep o wa e balance, based on conse a ion o mass, o de elop h ee le els
o composi e e iciency indica o s (mac o, meso, and mic o le els) called Sus ainable E iciency,
o Se iciency. They achie ed ha h ough he de ini ion o Use ulness C i e ion, which is de ined
as he p oduc o quali y and bene icial weigh s assigned o he quali y and he bene icial
a ibu es o wa e use. The au ho s con inued hei e o s wi h o he in o ma i e publica ions
(Haie, 2016; Haie & Kelle , 2014) o be e desc ibe and, a he same ime, examine he
e minology associa ed wi h wa e use e iciency. Also, hey p oposed in eg a ed e minologies,
s a ing om low-pa h ypes in wa e balance and expanded in o he h ee-le el e iciencies
o mula ion. La ely, P o esso Naim Haie has ga he ed he a ailable knowledge abou Se iciency
in his book “T anspa en Wa e Managemen Theo y” (Haie, 2020).
Se iciency applica ion o e alua e he pe o mance o he wa e use sys em s a ed o eme ge
ecen ly. Apa om he publica ion p oduced ou o his wo k (Tuqan, Haie, & Ahmad, 2020),
wo s udies by M.T. Ahmad and Haie (2018) and Muhammad Taju i Ahmad, Haie, Yen, and
Tuqan (2018) used Se iciency o e alua e he e iciency and wa e alloca ion o he Kano Ri e
Basin (KRB) p ojec in Nige ia. In addi ion, hey assessed he impac s o popula ion g ow h and
clima e change on he sys em’s pe o mance. Ano he example is a s udy by Kazem A a , Noo y,
Eb ahimian, and Liagha (2020), who used Se iciency o in es iga e he quali y o e u n lows
and o examine i s impac on he assessmen o e iciency in i iga ion.
2.6. Wa e C isis in Pales ine
Wa e esou ces managemen in he Middle Eas is challenging due o he a ie y o complex
issues ha h ea ens wa e sus ainabili y in ha egion. Pales ine is no excep ion. Schola s ha e
add essed he di e en elemen s in Pales ine ha cons uc a c isis le el o wa e esou ces’
a ailabili y, accessibili y, quali y, and e iciency. These elemen s include, bu a e no limi ed o:
1. Inc eased demand due o he high popula ion g ow h a es. 2. The impac o a changing
clima e in a semi-a id o a id egion. 3. Absence o he s a egic dimension wi hin he na ional-
33
le el o wa e esou ces managemen and planning. 4. The geopoli ical complexi y caused by
sha ing he ansbounda y eshwa e esou ces be ween hos ile neighbou s.
2.6.1. Inc eased Demand Due o Popula ion G ow h
The Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y (PWA) es ima es he p ojec ed demands o all sec o s acco ding
o he popula ion. As in he Wa e S a us Repo o 2011 (PWA, 2012), hey es ima ed he demand
o each go e no a e on he basis o 150 li es pe capi a pe day (l/c/d). They do no p o ide a
clea jus i ica ion o he adop ion o his c i e ion o he han he e e al o he Wo ld Heal h
O ganisa ion (WHO) s anda ds. Howe e , he pu pose o he WHO’s ecommenda ions o
minimum wa e equi emen o wa e se ice le el is o p omo e heal h. Mo eo e , in hei
Domes ic Wa e Quan i y, Se ice, Le el and Heal h 2003 guidelines, he WHO es ima ed ha
100 l/c/d is su icien o ensu e mee ing all hygiene and basic domes ic needs (Howa d e al.,
2003). While he WHO es ima ion mainly e e s o domes ic use, he PWA howe e , e e s o he
o al demand o all use sec o s. Whe he he 150 l/c/d c i e ion is well de eloped and jus i ied
o no , he bo om line is ha he PWA es ima es he Pales inian demand based on popula ion,
which is, in ai ness, no unique by all means.
Acco ding o he la es es ima es o he Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics (PCBS, 2020) in
Figu e 2.8, he a e age popula ion g ow h a e in Pales ine is a ound 2.66%, which led o an
inc ease in popula ion om 2.78 million in 1997 o 4.73 million in 2017 ( he yea in which PCBS
conduc ed he mos ecen census). The p ojec ions o he ou yea s ha ollow he las census
( om 2018 un il 2021) show a con inua ion o he same end, whe e he popula ion is expec ed
o each 5.23 million in 2021.
Since PWA es ima es wa e demand based on popula ion, such an inc easing end consequen ly
means a con inuous inc ease in demand. Among he ew au ho s who add essed his issue and
i s impac on he u u e scena ios o he egion we e Jayyousi, Ja a , McKee, and Kalua achchi
(2004). They p esen ed a sho bu ocused es ima ion o he supply-demand gap due o he
popula ion g ow h eaching he yea 2020 acco ding o he Pales inian na ional a ge s a he
ime o publishing hei wo k. As shown in able 2.1, hey concluded ha he de ici in 2004 was
a ound 177 Mm3/yea and quickly inc easing o each a supply-demand gap o 513 Mm3/yea in
16 yea s i he exis ing supplies a ha ime a e no expanded.
34
Figu e 2.8: Popula ion o Pales ine om 1997 o 2021 (P ojec ion)
Whe e : he popula ion g ow h a e. Sou ce: (PCBS, 2020)
I is wo h men ioning ha Jayyousi e al. (2004) di e en ia ed be ween he u ban and domes ic
demands and he ag icul u al demand. They ollowed he na ional a ge s ha we e based on he
WHO guidelines o 150 l/c/d in he u ban a eas and 100 l/c/d in he u al a eas. As o
ag icul u e, hey adop ed a local s udy conduc ed a An-Najah Na ional Uni e si y and sponso ed
by he
Deu sche Gesellscha ü Technische Zusammena bei
(GTZ) in 1996. I es ima ed he
a e age annual consump ion o i iga ed c ops a ound 272 kg pe capi a; b oken down in o 179
kg ege ables, 40 kg melons, and 53 kg o anges and bananas. Such a dis inc ion is absen in
he na ional wa e s a egic de elopmen epo s and li e a u e.
O he s, such as J. L. Chenowe h and Weh meye (2006) and J. Chenowe h (2011), analysed he
impac o popula ion inc ease among he h ee neighbou ing coun ies, Jo dan, Is eal, and
Pales ine, which sha e he ansbounda y su ace and g oundwa e esou ces. They used he
popula ion g ow h p ojec ions o he yea 2050 based on he Uni ed Na ions Popula ion Di ision
es ima es. In ega ds o Pales ine, hei analysis concluded ha a s able poli ical en i onmen is
2,783,084
2,871,568
2,962,226
3,053,335
3,138,471
3,225,214
3,314,509
3,407,417
3,508,126
3,611,998
3,719,189
3,820,801
3,922,130
4,023,462
4,124,795
4,226,410
4,327,751
4,429,084
4,530,416
4,632,025
4,733,357
4,854,013
4,976,684
5,101,152
5,227,193
= 2.66%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
POPULATION
YEAR
35
necessa y and p edic ed ha he Wes Bank will be able o co e he inc eased demand only
h ough gaining a la ge sha e o he a ailable esou ce. Ne e heless, he Gaza S ip will need
desalina ion, wa e impo s, o a combina ion o bo h o b idge he gap.
Table 2.1: P ojec ed wa e demand and de ici (assuming no inc ease o 2004 supplies)
P esen ed by (Jayyousi e al., 2004)
Yea
2000
2005
2010
2020
Sec o
Demand
De ici
Demand
De ici
Demand
De ici
Demand
De ici
Domes ic
226
125
288
187
332
231
432
331
Ag icul u e
224
52
266
94
299
127
353
182
To al
450
177
554
281
631
358
785
531
Simila ly, J. Lau ze and Ki shen (2009) and Jona han Lau ze, Ree es, Vega, and Ki shen (2005)
ha e simula ed eigh di e en scena ios o p ojec he condi ions in he yea s 2020 and 2025.
The scena ios a ied be ween Business as Usual (BAU) o he o icial Pales inian desi ed and
claimed posi ion unde popula ion g ow h and clima e change unce ain ies in bo h yea s. The
esul s showed, on he one hand, ha hese unce ain ies would c ea e an alloca ion’s
disp opo ion and en i onmen al ulne abili ies wi hin he BAU scena ios. On he o he hand,
unde he Pales inian desi ed posi ion, condi ions a e mo e equi able, bu associa ed wi h c i ical
ecological consequences, especially when conside ing clima e change impac s.
2.6.2. Vulne abili y o he Clima ic Condi ions
Pales ine has a o al a ea o 6,020 km2 (Uni ed Na ions S a is ics Di ision, 2012). Despi e he
small numbe , he a ia ion in clima ic zones is conside able due o he a ia ion in opog aphy.
Wi hin ens o kilome es, he ele a ion could d op om mo e han 800 m abo e mean sea le el
a some poin s in he cen al pa o Wes Bank down o less han 400 m below mean sea le el
nex o he Dead Sea.
A conside able numbe o au ho s add essed he g ea ulne abili y o a change in he clima ic
condi ions in Pales ine and i s impac on he a ailabili y and dis ibu ion o he wa e esou ces,
especially amids he o he complica ions. Fo example, as men ioned ea lie in hei discussions
abou he popula ion g ow h issue J. L. Chenowe h and Weh meye (2006), J. Lau ze and Ki shen
(2009), and J. Chenowe h (2011) could no bu o include he clima e changes po en ial impac s
42
design o he ci y o Tubas as a s udy a ea and a b ie plan o a sus ainable implemen a ion o
such a p ojec . Al hough hey did no assess e iciency, bu hei a icle is use ul in p omo ing a
sus ainable p ac ice ha would enhance he e iciency o ag icul u al wa e use sys ems. A simila
a emp on a small scale in Jenin ci y as a s udy a ea can be ound in he publica ion o Z. A.
Mimi, Zia a, and Nigim (2003).
2.7.2. Wa e Use E iciency in Je icho
When i comes o he Jo dan Valley a ea and he ci y o Je icho, he s udies become sca ce . One
o he ew local a emp s was Ba ghou hi (2009), who add essed he wa e use e iciency,
especially in i iga ion, h ough in es iga ing he wa e use a iables o a local impo an sp ing
called Ein Sul an. Al hough he s udy is no e y well s uc u ed and has some laws om a
echnical pe spec i e, i is unique in in oducing e ms such as mic o and meso le els o e icien
alloca ion o i iga ion wa e . The au ho concluded ha he e a e wa e use ine iciencies in he
u ilisa ion o he sp ing, and he po en ial cause behind hese e iciencies is mainly ha ing a
supply-d i en a he han demand-based managemen app oach. While he a gued cause makes
sense conside ing he manage ial challenges in he egion, howe e , he au ho ’s conclusions
a e no s ongly suppo ed by he a icle’s me hodology and esul s.
None heless, al hough Ziad A. Mimi and Abu Jamous (2010) app oached wa e use e iciency in
a p imi i e way, hey impo an ly a emp ed o assess he impac o clima e change on he o al
c op wa e demand in Je icho. They ollowed s anda d models o es ima e e apo anspi a ion,
e ec i e p ecipi a ion, and leaching equi emen s. Thei esul s showed ha a 3°C inc ease in
empe a u e combined wi h a 20% dec ease in p ecipi a ion would equi e a 2.9 Mm3 inc ease in
wa e supplies in o de o compensa e o he inc eased c op wa e demands.
Besides, Al-Kha ib, Shoqei , Öze ol, and Majaj (2017) add essed he euse o ea ed was ewa e
in i iga ion in Je icho ci y a ea as a case s udy. They ocused hei analysis on he unde s udied
go e nance elemen . Thei s udy managed o iden i y go e nance- ela ed conce ns, including he
weak coo dina ion be ween he di e en go e nance s akeholde s. This gab is ob ious in he
o e lapping esponsibili ies. O he conce ns hey iden i ied included he absence o a obus
legisla i e sys em and a se o laws o go e n he o e all p ocesses, in addi ion o he absence o
in as uc u e de elopmen .

43
Apa om was ewa e euse, Al-Jayyousi (1999) sugges ed o enhance i iga ion e iciency in
Je icho h ough ehabili a ion o he exis ing i iga ion dis ibu ion ne wo k. The au ho p oposed
a design ha is based on ans o ming he exis ing i iga ion open channel sys em o a dis ibu ion
ne wo k o p essu ised pipes.
Finally, and a e ca e ul conside a ion o he a ailable li e a u e up un il he ime o w i ing his
hesis, we can con iden ly s a e ha he opic o wa e use e iciency o he ag icul u al sec o in
Pales ine, especially unde clima e change impac s, is unde s udied. This is mo e e iden when
i comes o he a ea o Je icho ci y and Eas e n Aqui e Basin. Fu he mo e, among he ens o
a icles we e iewed, we could ind no publica ion ha add essed any o hose opics in Pales ine
using an e iciency e alua ion app oach o he han classical e iciency.
44
CHAPTER THREE. METHODOLOGY
In his chap e , we will cla i y he me hodology o which his esea ch wo k is based on. Fi s , we
will p o ide a b ie desc ip ion o Se iciency, which is he adop ed me hod o he wa e use
e iciency assessmen ha is ca ied ou in his esea ch. Then, in he ollowing h ee sec ions
(3.2 o 3.4), we will explain he de ini ions and es ima ion me hods o he di e en a iables
equi ed o apply Se iciency in ega ds o hei quan i y (sec ion 3.2), quali y weigh (sec ion 3.3),
and bene icial weigh (sec ion 3.4). Finally, sec ion 3.5 will come ac oss he app oach o cons uc
he di e en clima e change scena ios.
3.1. Se iciency
Se iciency was i s in oduced by Haie and Kelle (2012) in hei ex ensi e publica ion:
“Mac o,
Meso, and Mic o-E iciencies in Wa e Resou ces Managemen : A New F amewo k Using Wa e
Balance”
. I is a composi e indica o o es ima e e iciency using he law o mass conse a ion
(wa e balance), conside ing wo ypes o o al lows: o al in low and o al consump ion. The
p elimina y s eps a e o cha ac e ise a wa e use sys em (WUS), whe he ha sys em was a a m,
basin, egion, ci y, o some hing else. WUS cha ac e isa ion in Se iciency is o loca e WUS
bounda ies; o dis inguish be ween he di e en in low and ou low wa e pa h ypes (WPTs)
(Figu e 3.1); and o de ine he associa ed a ibu es, namely quali y and bene i s — he use ul
dimension.
3.1.1. Wa e Pa h Types
Wa e pa h ypes (WPTs) a e he nine di e en possible low ypes in any gi en WUS. Any WPT
can po en ially consis o ze o, one, o mo e wa e pa h ins ances (WPIs), which a e he eal wa e
ins ances lowing in o ou o he WUS.
As shown in Figu e 3.1, he e a e wo ca ego ies o WPTs based on he low di ec ion, namely,
in low and ou low pa hways. In low pa hs can be o h ee sou ces:
 VA: Volume o abs ac ed wa e om he main sou ce o al e na i ely VU; he le el o he
aqui e a he beginning o he pe iod
45
 PP: P ecipi a ion
 OS: Volume o wa e om o he sou ces (e.g., pu chased wa e )
Figu e 3.1: Gene ic wa e use sys em (WUS) schema ic including all wa e pa h ypes.
Ou low pa hs can be o ou ypes:
 RF: Re u n low o he main sou ce o al e na i ely VD; he le el o he aqui e a he end o
he pe iod
 ET: E apo anspi a ion
 RP: Po en ial e u n ( he wa e e u ned o he en i onmen , bu no he main sou ce)
 NR: Non eusable, non-ET wa e consump ion (e.g., e apo a ion esul ing om non-
ag icul u al ac i i ies)
Use ul ema ks abou he dis inc ion be ween he di e en WPTs a e a ailable in (Haie & Kelle ,
2014).
3.1.2. Wa e Balance
The change in s o age o e he analysis pe iod ( o example annually) should sum o ze o, hus:
o al in low = o al ou low. T ansla ing wa e balance:
(VA + OS + PP) – (ET + RP + RF + NR) = 0
(3.1)
I is impo an o bea in mind he consis ency o low uni s, e.g., Mm3.
The (VA + OS + PP) pa o he equa ion is he o al in low, which will be deno ed by index 𝑖 (in low
models), and sub ac ing ET and NR om he o al in low (VA + OS + PP – RF – RP) ep esen s
he WUS e ec i e consump ion, which will be deno ed by index 𝑐 (consump ion models). 𝑖 and
46
𝑐 a e bina y indices wi h alues 0 o 1, whe e 𝑖+𝑐=1, in o de o di e en ia e be ween he
wo models. To cla i y, Equa ion (3.1) can be ew i en o include hese wo ypes o o als:
[(VA + OS + PP) – c(RF + RP)] – [(ET + NR) + i(RF + RP)] = 0
(3.2)
Fo example, gi ing he alues 𝑖=1 and 𝑐=0 in Equa ion (3.2) will esul in Equa ion (3.1).
The signi icance o conside ing hese wo o als is a esul o hei associa ion wi h eal-wa e
sa ing mechanisms, whe he i was consump i e o abs ac ion sa ings. Fu he de ails abou
he link be ween he wo o als and he sa ing mechanisms can be ound in he me hod’s
de elopmen publica ion (Haie & Kelle , 2012).
3.1.3. Use ulness C i e ion
Se iciency conside s wo dimensions o making a a iable use ul: bene icial dimension, b, and
quali y dimension, q. Ha ing bo h dimensions de ined, hen, he use ul dimension o a WPI = X
is Xs:
Xq=WqX×X
Xb=WbX×X
WsX =WbX ×WqX
Xs=WsX×X
(3.3)
Whe e:
Xq: he quali y dimension o X.
Xb: he bene icial dimension o X.
WqX: he quali y weigh o X.
WbX: he bene icial weigh o X.
WsX: he use ulness weigh o X.
Weigh s a e be ween ze o and one wi h ze o being he poo es . The quali y weigh o a wa e
ins ance can be quan i ied based on i s physical, chemical, and biological cha ac e is ics. While
i s bene icial weigh , howe e , can be quan i ied acco ding o angible and in angible alues o
wa e and in acco dance wi h s akeholde pa icipa ion p ocesses.
47
3.1.4. Le els o Wa e Managemen
Se iciency assesses he WUS’s pe o mance a h ee di e en le els: mac o-, meso-, and mic o-
E iciencies (3ME). Mac o-Se iciency (𝑀𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸) assesses he impac o a WUS on he main
sou ce. Meso-Se iciency (𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸) ela es o a si ua ion be ween mic o and mac o le els
indica ing, o example, he impac o e u n lows gene a ed by a WUS. Mic o-Se iciency
(𝑀𝑖𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸) is abou he in e nal e iciency o a WUS, i.e., no conside a ion o i s e u ns no
impac on he main sou ce (Haie, 2016; Haie & Kelle , 2012, 2014).
𝑀𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸 is mo e sui able o a la ge ( ansbounda y) scale assessmen ha is cen ed on he
aqui e . I would equi e measu es o wa e able le el a he beginning and end o he analysis
pe iod o eplace VA and RF wi h VU and VD, espec i ely. 𝑀𝑖𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸, on he o he hand, igno es
he impac o he e u n low on he main sou ce, which is an impo an objec i e o his wo k.
The e o e, he assessmen in his s udy will ocus on Se iciency a meso le el in o de o e lec
on he in e ac ion be ween he use ul ou low and o al low. A p ope applica ion would be he
impac o e u n ins ances he sys em gene a es. Such an applica ion examines, among di e en
aspec s, he impac o he WUS on he downs eam use s, including he ecosys em.
To calcula e he Se iciency o a WUS a he meso le el, we use he ollowing equa ion – o i s
p oo see (Haie & Kelle , 2012) o (Haie, 2020):
MesoSE= [ ET+ NR + 𝑖(RF+ RP)
VA+ OS + PP − 𝑐(RF + RP)]s
(3.4)
The p esence o 𝑖 o 𝑐 indica es he I/O models, i.e., 𝑖𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸 means 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸 calcula ed as
in ull in low model, while 𝑐𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸 means meso-Se iciency calcula ed as in consump ion
model. Full in low 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸 gi es he pe cen age o o al use ul in low ha is use ul ou low,
whe eas consump i e 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸 p o ides he pe cen age o e ec i e consump ion ha is use ul
consump ion.
3.2. Wa e Ins ances Quan i ies
As men ioned ea lie , wa e ins ances a e ca ego ised based on hei pa hs in o h ee in low pa hs
ypes and ou ou low pa hs ypes. Based on a obus analysis and unde s anding o he a iables

48
o he wa e use sys em (WUS), we can de e mine how many ins ances each pa h ype consis s
o , i any. The i s s ep in o cha ac e ising he WUS is o es ima e he olumes o each o he
ins ances ha cons i u e he di e en WPTs in ha WUS.
3.2.1. P ecipi a ion (PP)
P ecipi a ion (PP) is he amoun , usually exp essed in millime e s o inches o liquid wa e dep h,
o he wa e subs ance ha has allen a a gi en poin o e a speci ied pe iod o ime (AMS,
2019). Typically, me eo ological agencies and specialis s equen ly epo p ecipi a ion a es o
a gi en a ea using hei ield measu emen s om one o mo e me eo ological s a ions in ha
a ea. In lack o ield measu emen s, PP amoun s can be es ima ed using echniques such as he
isohye al maps o he a ea unde conside a ion, which a e maps cons uc ed o lines ha connec
poin s o equal long- e m a e ages o p ecipi a ion dep h.
As we a e looking o a olume o wa e a he han dep h, and o keep consis ency in uni s,
a e age PP dep h is mul iplied by he a ea unde conside a ion o es ima e he olume o
p ecipi a ion in a olume ic uni such as Mm3.
3.2.2. Abs ac ion F om he Main Sou ce (VA)
The amoun o wa e abs ac ed om he single main wa e sou ce o he WUS, which could be
a i e , a basin, o any o he sou ce ha is cen al o he s akeholde s and use s in he WUS. A
a na ional le el, o icial wa e au ho i ies and agencies measu e and con ol such amoun s.
Al e na ely, he olume o wa e ups eam o wa e able be o e abs ac ion (VU) can eplace VA
alue i he assessmen conside s he mac o-le el Se iciency.
Fo his s udy, he main sou ce is an aqui e basin. Thus, we will depend on he wa e au ho i y
o icial epo s o wi hd awals. Such epo s commonly include de ails abou he dis ibu ions o
wi hd awals among he di e en sec o s o wa e use.
3.2.3. O he Sou ces (OS)
I is no a e o a la ge size WUS o ha e addi ional sou ces besides he p ecipi a ion and main
sou ce’s abs ac ions. Fo ins ance, abs ac ions om seconda y sou ces, pu chased wa e , and
eclaimed wa e euse can be o ms o o he sou ces.
49
3.2.4. E apo anspi a ion (ET)
E apo anspi a ion is he combined p ocesses h ough which wa e is ans e ed o he
a mosphe e om open wa e and ice su aces, ba e soil, and ege a ion ha make up he ea h's
su ace (AMS, 2019). ET es ima ion, al e na i ely, he o al c op wa e demand (CWD), is o high
complexi y due o he a ie y o he included a iables. We will use he CROPWAT model (Smi h,
1992), which is based on he Penman-Mon ei h me hod, illus a ed in FAO I iga ion and D ainage
Pape 56 by Allen, Pe ei a, Raes, and Smi h (1998).
To es ima e he e e ence ET (ETo), which is he e apo anspi a ion a e o a e e enced c op
(usually al al a) a s anda d me eo ological condi ions, he PM equa ion is:
𝐸𝑇𝑜=0.408∆(𝑅𝑛−𝐺)+ 𝛾 900
𝑇+273𝑢2(𝑒𝑠−𝑒𝑎)
∆+𝛾(1+0.34𝑢2)
(3.5)
Whe e
𝐸𝑇𝑜: Re e enced e apo anspi a ion in 𝑚𝑚.𝑑𝑎𝑦−1
𝑅𝑛: Ne adia ion a he c op su ace in 𝑀𝐽.𝑚−2.𝑑𝑎𝑦−1
𝐺: Soil hea lux densi y in 𝑀𝐽.𝑚−2.𝑑𝑎𝑦−1
𝑇: Mean daily ai empe a u e a 2 𝑚 heigh in ℃
𝑢2: Wind speed a 2 𝑚 heigh in 𝑚.𝑠−1
𝑒𝑠: Sa u a ion apo p essu e in 𝑘𝑃𝑎
𝑒𝑎: Ac ual apo p essu e in 𝑘𝑃𝑎
𝑒𝑠−𝑒𝑎: Sa u a ion apo p essu e de ici in 𝑘𝑃𝑎
∆: Slope apo p essu e cu e in 𝑘𝑃𝑎.℃−1
𝛾: Psych ome ic cons an in 𝑘𝑃𝑎.℃−1
Then, o con e ETo o ac ual c op ET (ETc), he c op coe icien app oach shall be used:
𝐸𝑇𝑐=𝐾𝑐×𝐸𝑇𝑜
(3.6)
Whe e:
ETc: c op e apo anspi a ion in mm.day-1
Kc: c op coe icien (dimensionless)
50
The c op coe icien , Kc, is he a io o he c op ETc o he e e ence ETo, and i ep esen s an
in eg a ion o he e ec s o p ima y cha ac e is ics ha dis inguish he c op unde conside a ion
om a e e ence c op. The c op coe icien in eg a es he e ec o cha ac e is ics ha dis inguish
a ypical ield c op om a e e ence g ass, which has a cons an appea ance and a comple e
g ound co e . Consequen ly, di e en c ops will ha e di e en Kc coe icien s. The changing
cha ac e is ics o he c op o e he g owing season also a ec he Kc coe icien . Finally, as
e apo a ion is an in eg a ed pa o c op e apo anspi a ion, condi ions a ec ing soil e apo a ion
will also a ec Kc.
We will use he me ological da a om he Je icho s a ion o es ima e he e e ence c op
e apo anspi a ion (ETo) pe each g owing pe iod. The g owing pe iod and he c op coe icien (Kc)
o each o he di e en c op ypes we e es ima ed based on he ex ensi e local esea ch wo k in
his ield conduc ed by he Applied Resea ch Ins i u e—Je usalem (ARIJ) in 1998 (J. Isaac &
Sabbah, 1998). Then, we u ilised Kc o es ima e he ac ual c op e apo anspi a ion (ETc) pe he
g owing pe iod o each c op. The a eas o i iga ed a mland in he go e no a e o each c op
we e acqui ed om he 2010 ag icul u al census (PCBS, 2012). Fu he mo e, we e i ied he
g owing pe iods in ARIJ’s book o each c op by compa ing hem wi h he g owing pe iods o
se e al c ops lis ed by he su eyed a me s in one o he ques ions in he su ey, and wi h he
opinion o local ag icul u al enginee s.
3.2.5. Re u n Flow (RF)
Re u n low is he olume o wa e ha e u ns o he main sou ce. Such olume can be one o
mo e o di e en o ms including uno ou lowing o a s eam, in il a ion wi hin an aqui e basin,
discha ge o u ban was ewa e ne wo ks (as long as i s des ina ion is he main sou ce), e c. The
quali y o he e u ned low is no conside ed he e. Al e na ely, in case o using VU as a ype o
in low when he assessmen conside s he mac o-le el Se iciency, he olume o wa e
downs eam a e he occu ence o he e u n low (VD) can eplace RF, ega dless o he wa e
sou ce ype.
Es ima ion o RF depends on he o m o i , which by i sel a ies om a WUS o ano he . In his
s udy, as he main sou ce in ques ion is an aqui e basin, we will analyse he spa ial
cha ac e is ics, he used i iga ion me hods, and he soil classi ica ion o he a ea unde
conside a ion. In addi ion, we will include ques ions o he local a me s in he su ey ha will
51
help us o d aw a be e unde s anding o he s udy a ea, including he i iga ion pa e ns,
me hods, and he i iga ion equipmen ’s condi ions and quali y.
3.2.6. Po en ial Re u n (RP)
The de ini ion o po en ial e u ns is e y compa able o RF, bu di e s in e ms o he ou low
des ina ion downs eam. Hence, i is he olume o wa e ha e u ns o a di e en downs eam
des ina ion o he han he main sou ce. The es ima ion o RP is also simila o RF while bea ing
in mind he downs eam di ec ion.
3.2.7. Non eusable (NR)
The non eusable is he consumed olume o wa e , apa om ET, ha does no e u n o he
main sou ce no can be eused in any o m wi hin he de ined WUS. Simila o he o he a iables,
he iden i ica ion, and hus he es ima ion, o he non eusable olumes di e be ween he di e en
ypes o wa e use sys ems. Fo ag icul u al sys ems, he e apo a ion ha is no accoun ed o in
ET is an example o NR.
NR can be es ima ed ei he h ough analysis o by using i he slack a iable o achie e wa e
balance. In his s udy, we will use he same app oach o es ima e NR and RP o accoun o NR
as well. The nex chap e includes de ails abou he applied app oach o es ima e RF, RP, and
NR.
3.3. Quali y Weigh s
Wa e quali y a iables a e o high complexi y due o he a ie y o condi ions and cha ac e is ics
unde conside a ion om physical o chemical and biological condi ions. Mo eo e , he quali y
dimension is no only abou he quali y o wa e and he sys em ha wa e lows h ough, bu also
he le el o ole a ion o a design quali y, which is a managemen decision (Haie & Kelle , 2012).
Wa e quali y is a quali a i e cha ac e is ic ha is usually indica ed by a lo o ield o lab es s
and measu emen s. The e a e se e al quan i ica ion app oaches o quan i y wa e quali y. Fo
example, he wa e quali y index (WQI) (Lumb, Sha ma, & Bibeaul , 2011) is a single numbe
ha exp esses wa e quali y by agg ega ing he measu emen s o wa e quali y pa ame e s (such
58
Figu e 3.4: SOMs analysis o a e age empe a u e and p ecipi a ion changes in Pales ine unde RCP6.0 using CMIP5.
Sou ce: (Smi he s e al., 2016)

59
Figu e 3.5: P ojec ed changes in empe a u e in Pales ine unde RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 o he yea s 2025, 2055, and 2090.
Sou ce: (Smi he s e al., 2016)
60
Figu e 3.6: P ojec ed changes in p ecipi a ion in Pales ine unde RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 o he yea s 2025, 2055, and 2090.
Sou ce: (Smi he s e al., 2016)
61
CHAPTER FOUR. CHARACTERISING THE WATER USE
SYSTEM
In his chap e , we will en ich he eade wi h an ex ended se o da a and maps o he s udy
a ea, i s wa e esou ces, and gene al cha ac e is ics. Then, we will p o ide de ails abou he
cha ac e isa ion app oaches o achie e a ep esen a i e unde s anding and es ima ion o he
di e en a iables needed o apply Se iciency (wa e quan i y, quali y, and bene icence). The
maps included in his chap e , whe e he e is no e e ence indica ed below he map, a e a esul
o he au ho ’s A cMap GIS wo k based on he shap iles p o ided om he Pales inian Minis y o
Planning and In e na ional Coope a ion (MOPIC, 1998). This minis y was la e enamed as he
Minis y o Planning.
4.1. S udy A ea
This s udy will use Se iciency as an app oach o assess he ag icul u al wa e use e iciency in
he Pales inian pa o Jo dan Valley du ing he 2010/2011 season. We selec ed his season in
pa icula because i is he mos ecen season o which he Pales inian o icial sou ces p o ide
a comple e da a se ha i s he pu pose o his s udy.
The Jo dan Valley is one o he mos signi ican a eas in Pales ine o se e al easons. I
ep esen s a g ea economic alue and sus ainable de elopmen po en ials o he Pales inians.
The main wa e sou ce in he Pales inian pa o he Jo dan Valley is he Eas e n Aqui e Basin
(EAB). Je icho go e no a e, home o Je icho ci y, which some schola s including Kenyon (1954)
claimed o be he oldes own in he wo ld, is selec ed as he s udy a ea.
The main easons o selec ing Je icho as a s udy a ea a e:
1. Du ing he season unde conside a ion, Je icho used mo e han 62% (26.0 Mm3) o he o al
Pales inian abs ac ions (41.7 Mm3) om EAB (PWA, 2012). The go e no a e’s ag icul u al
sec o used 24.2 o he 26.0 Mm3, making i , by a , he main use o EAB in Pales ine.
2. I cons i u es mo e han 70% (592.9 km2) o he o al a ea o he Jo dan Valley.
62
3. Je icho has a i al posi ion wi hin he Pales inian na ional economy. I is a go e no a e wi h
a subs an ial olume o ag icul u al ac i i ies in addi ion o i s being an a ac i e des ina ion
o eligious, a chaeological, and medical ou ism.
4. I has a wea he s a ion p o iding me ological da a o he go e no a e.
4.1.1. Loca ion
The Jo dan Valley ex ends be ween he Nablus, Je usalem, and Heb on Moun ains chain (known
in Is aeli sou ces as Judaean and Sama ia Moun ains) in he wes and he no hwes e n Jo danian
highlands in he eas . The Pales inian pa o he alley has an es ima ed a ea o 845 km2 (MOPIC,
1998). Adminis a i ely, wo go e no a es sha e he as majo i y o he alley: he en i e
Je icho
and Al-Aghwa
Go e no a e (in sho , Je icho) wi h an a ea o 592.9 km2 and he eas e n hal o
Tubas and he No he n Valleys
Go e no a e (in sho , Tubas) wi h an a ea o 252.1 km2.
As in Figu e 4.1, Je icho is loca ed in he cen al-eas e n pa o he Wes Bank. I sha es
bounda ies wi h he Hashemi e Kingdom o Jo dan o he eas , Nablus, Ramallah & Al-Bi eh, and
Je usalem go e no a es o he wes , Tubas go e no a e o he no h, and Je usalem go e no a e
and he Dead Sea o he sou h.
4.1.2. Topog aphy
As shown in Figu e 4.2, he ele a ions in Je icho Go e no a e a y om a ound 300 m abo e o
400 m below sea le el. The ele a ion ends o dec ease heading sou heas wa d close o he
Dead Sea.
4.1.3. Clima e and P ecipi a ion
The a ea unde conside a ion is a id. Je icho enjoys ela i ely wa m win e s compa ed o he es
o he Pales inian go e no a es, hence i became a des ina ion o win e housing. Summe s a e
conside ably ho wi h empe a u es ha exceed 40°C in a ypical summe y day he e.
Me eo ological cha ac e is ics o Je icho a e summa ised in Table 4.1.
63
Figu e 4.1: Loca ion and land use o he s udy a ea

64
Figu e 4.2: Topog aphy o he s udy a ea
65
P ecipi a ion a es (Figu es 4.3) a y wi hin a sho dis ance om up o 300 mm pe yea in he
no h, down o less han 100 mm pe yea close o he Dead Sea (EcoPeace Middle Eas , 2015).
The 25-yea -a e age o annual p ecipi a ion eco ded by he Je icho wea he s a ion is 147 mm.
These p ecipi a ion a es accompanied by high e apo a ion eco ds esul in a g ea e
dependence on i iga ion. The Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics (PCBS) epo ed in 2011
ha 97% o he c opland a eas he e we e i iga ed (PCBS, 2012).
Table 4.1: Me eo ological cha ac e is ics o s udy a ea ex ac ed om Je icho wea he s a ion.
Wea he condi ions da a co e yea s 1972–1997. E apo a ion and p ecipi a ion da a co e yea s 1988–2012.
Sou ce: Pales inian Me eo ological Depa men —Minis y o T anspo .
Mon h
Jan
Feb
Ma
Ap
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oc
No
Dec
A g. high Temp. (°C)
19.1
20.9
24.3
29.3
33.7
36.7
37.8
37.6
36.1
32.3
26.4
20.5
A g. low Temp. (°C)
7.4
8.3
10.5
14.2
17.6
20.4
22.1
22.4
21.2
17.9
12.9
9
Mean Temp. (°C)
13.2
14.6
17.4
21.7
25.6
28.5
29.9
30
28.6
25.1
19.6
14.7
A g. ela i e humidi y
(%)
70
65
57
45
38
38
40
44
47
51
60
70
A g. daily sun (h)
5.5
5.9
7.7
9.3
9.4
11.8
11.7
11.6
10.5
8.7
6.5
5.6
A g. a m p essu e
(mba )
1048
1046
1044
1041
1040
1037
1034
1035
1039
1042
1046
1048
A g. wind speed (km/h)
4.5
5.2
6.5
8.1
7.9
7.7
8
7.4
6.3
4.7
4
3.8
A g. e apo a ion (mm)
71
74
128
182
259
288
294
274
225
148
96
62
A g. p ecipi a ion (mm)
36
29
20
9
1
1
0
0
0
6
17
28
66
Figu e 4.3: Long- e m a e age annual p ecipi a ion o he s udy a ea
67
4.1.4. Wa e Resou ces
On he opic o wa e supplies, as men ioned ea lie , Pales inians ely on g oundwa e o 95% o
hei supplies. Pu chased wa e om Is ael, ea ed was ewa e and desalina ion cons i u e he
emaining 5%. The p ima y pu pose o he pu chased wa e om he Is aeli na ional wa e
company Meko o is o municipal uses only. In addi ion, he le el o was ewa e ea men is
below he s anda ds o di ec euse in municipal and ag icul u al uses. Las , he desalina ed
Medi e anean seawa e is a sou ce ha is only a ailable in Gaza S ip. In 2011, all PWA epo s
sugges ed ha Pales inians in Je icho solely depended on abs ac ed wa e om he Eas e n
Aqui e Basin (EAB) o hei ag icul u al ac i i ies (PWA, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017).
EAB has a o al a ea o 2,767 km2 (PWA, 2018), which is a ound hal o he o al a ea o he Wes
Bank, and a long- e m a e age echa ge o 125–197 Mm3 (PWA, 2013). The annual yield
abs ac ed om EAB by Pales inians ends o inc ease: 23 Mm3 in 2003 (J. Lau ze & Ki shen,
2009), 42 Mm3 in 2011 (PWA, 2012), 53 Mm3 in 2012 (PWA, 2013), up o 64.8 Mm3 in 2015
(la es published PWA upda e) (PWA, 2017).
Is aelis also abs ac om EAB hei alloca ion (40 Mm3) acco ding o he Oslo II Ag eemen in
1995 (a ollow-up ag eemen o he Decla a ion o P inciples known as Oslo I, which bo h sides
signed in 1993). The Pales inian’s sha e in he ag eemen is se o be 54 Mm3 pe yea , while
“an addi ional 78 Mm3 a e o be de eloped” (Shami , 1998) – p esumably by bo h sides. PWA
claims ha he Is aeli side abs ac s om EAB an es ima ed addi ional 100 Mm3 (PWA, 2012),
exceeding he ag eed 78 Mm3 while p e en ing Pales inians om de eloping any u he
abs ac ions he e. On he o he hand, he Is aeli Wa e Au ho i y epo s Pales inian undesi able
p ac ices, including he d illing o 300 unau ho ised wells un il 2011, he disposal o un ea ed
was ewa e , and he de elic ion o de eloping uncon en ional sou ces (Is ael Wa e Au ho i y,
2012; Tal-Spi o, 2011).
Ou o he 42 Mm3 ha he Pales inian abs ac ed om EAB in 2011, Je icho go 26 Mm3 (62%).
Je icho’s sha e in ha yea was b oken down in o 24.19 Mm3 o he ag icul u al sec o and 1.81
Mm3 o he domes ic use. This is a clea indica o o he olume o he ag icul u al ac i i ies in
he go e no a e.
Figu e 4.4 p o ides an o e iew o he wa e esou ces mo emen in he egion. I shows he
main ca chmen s a ound Je icho and he wadies ha uno as a esul . As men ioned ea lie in
74
In addi ion, in o de o acqui e he s akeholde and public pa icipa ion da a, we in e iewed he
Di ec o -Gene al o Wa e Resou ces Managemen a PWA, Eng. Deeb Abdulgha ou , and
su eyed a andom sample o 40 local a me s. The selec ion o a me s conside ed bo h
popula ion densi y and geog aphic dis ibu ion ac oss he s udy a ea. Fo ins ance, 30% o he
sample we e a me s om Je icho ci y, which is he a ea o highes densi y, ano he 30% om
he no he n illages (g een a eas in he no h o Je icho in Figu e 4.1) and he emaining 40%
we e om he emaining illages ac oss he go e no a e.
4.2. WPIs Quan i ies Es ima ion
Conside ing he gene ic schema ic in Figu e 3.1, he h ee main in low pa h ypes a e wa e
abs ac ions om EAB (VA), p ecipi a ion (PP), and o he sou ces (OS). In he opposi e di ec ion,
he ou main ou low pa h ypes a e e apo anspi a ion (ET), aqui e basin echa ge (RF), o he
e u n ypes eplenishing any sou ce o he han he aqui e (RP), and wha lows ou wi hou
eplenishmen po en ials wi hin he sys em i sel no i s neighbou (s) (NR).
4.2.1. In low WPIs
The o al abs ac ed wa e om he Eas e n Aqui e Basin as epo ed om he Pales inian Wa e
Au ho i y (PWA) o ag icul u al use du ing he 2010/2011 season, abb e ia ed he e as VAPWA,
was 24.19 Mm3 (PWA, 2012).
P ecipi a ion in low du ing he same season was no iceably low, wi h a o al o 99 mm, which is
48 mm below he 25-yea -a e age. In ac , mul iple Pales inian sou ces e e o 2010/2011 as
a d ough season. The Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics (PCBS) su eyed 36.28 km2 o
i iga ed a mland in he a ea (PCBS, 2012), hence, he 99 mm p ecipi a ion p oduced 3.59 Mm3
(PP).
Finally, as he e was no wa e supplied om o he sou ces han EAB, he wa e pa h ype o o he
sou ces (OS) is assumed o be negligible.
The ou low a iables, es ima ed in he nex subsec ion, will sugges ha he e mus be addi ional
in lows o sa is y he law o wa e balance. Due o he absence o any u he da a in ega ds o
wa e supplies, we will need o conside an in low slack a iable o wa e balance.

75
4.2.2. Ou low WPIs
To es ima e ET, al e na i ely, he o al c op wa e demand (CWD), as explained in subsec ion
3.2.4, we used he CROPWAT modelling ool. Me ological da a om he Je icho s a ion (Table
4.1) we e used o es ima e he e e ence c op e apo anspi a ion (ETo) pe each g owing pe iod.
The g owing pe iod and he c op coe icien (Kc) o each o he di e en c op ypes we e es ima ed
based on J. Isaac and Sabbah (1998). Then, we u ilised Kc in o de o es ima e he ac ual c op
e apo anspi a ion (ETc) pe he g owing pe iod o each c op. I iga ed a eas o each c op we e
acqui ed om he 2010 ag icul u al census (PCBS, 2012).
Table 4.2 shows CWD modelling esul s o he op i e plan ed c ops o each ca ego y
(ca ego ised in o ees, ege ables, and ield c ops ollowing he baseline o PCBS). The inal
es ima ed alue o he o al c op wa e demand was 33.09 Mm3 o he season unde
conside a ion (2010/2011). Full de ails abou ET da a a e a ailable in Appendix III.
Table 4.2: E apo anspi a ion (ET) modelling esul s o he op 5 plan ed c ops o each ca ego y
C op
A ea
(km2)
ETo
(mm/pe iod)
Kc
ETc
(mm/pe iod)
CWD
(Mm3/yea )
T ees
Da e
4.79
1668
0.935
1559
7.47
Banana
1.11
1330
0.872
1160
1.29
Lemon
0.25
1668
0.796
1327
0.33
G ape
0.25
1668
0.509
850
0.22
Valencia O ange
0.14
1668
0.678
1132
0.16
Vege ables
Squash
7.60
983
0.904
888
6.75
Eggplan
3.88
1504
0.751
1130
4.38
Maize
3.83
806
0.720
580
2.22
Toma o
2.38
806
0.832
670
1.59
Jew's Mallow
0.71
1668
0.832
1388
0.98
Field C ops
Whea
0.66
925
0.840
777
0.51
So ghum
1.18
257
0.720
185
0.22
D y Onion
0.10
1145
0.916
1049
0.10
Min
0.04
1668
0.832
1388
0.05
Ba ley
0.29
240
0.715
171
0.05
76
In o de o es ima e RF, RP, and NR, we analysed he spa ial cha ac e is ics and he used
i iga ion me hods in he egion. The soil classi ica ion o he a ea unde conside a ion anges
om clay loam o sandy loam. In addi ion, he en i e sample o a me s who pa icipa ed in ou
su ey men ioned ha hey use d ip i iga ion as hei only i iga ion echnique, which con i ms
he PCBS and Minis y o Ag icul u e 2010 ag icul u al census esul s as shown in Table 4.3.
Table 4.3: A ea unde di e en i iga ion me hods (km2).
Sou ce: (PCBS, 2012)
C op Type
Su ace I iga ion
D ip I iga ion
Sp inkle s I iga ion
Field C ops
0.17
1.91
0.07
Vege ables
1.28
24.65
0.37
T ees
0.43
5.46
0.06
To al (%)
1.88 (5.5%)
32.01 (93.0%)
0.51 (1.5%)
Despi e he common pe cep ion among a me s ha d ip i iga ion’s non-bene icial wa e
consump ion is nea ly negligible, schola s ha e been less keen on his idea. A numbe o s udies
such as Bu , Mu zige , Allen, and Howell (2005) demons a ed ha classic (su ace) d ip
i iga ion could p oduce non-bene icial consump ion in e apo a ion. Mo eo e , one o he main
issues o d ip i iga ion is he high po en ial o excess deep pe cola ion (J. Schwankl & R. Hanson,
2007), which can occu as a esul o applying he o al c op wa e demand o a ela i ely small
soil su ace a ea.
We ha e asked he a me s o assess he d ip i iga ion sys ems hey use in e ms o echnical
quali y. Su ey esul s in Figu e 4.9 indica e 42% o a me s use he bes a ailable d ip i iga ion
op ions in he ma ke , while 45% and 13% use sys ems ha need imp o emen s o equi e
eplacemen , espec i ely. Al hough d ip i iga ion sys ems’ design impe ec ions and echnical
mal unc ions a e beyond he scope o his wo k, we unde s and ha such issues lead o a highe
pe cen age o wa e consumed in non-bene icial o ms o he a me s.
On a di e en no e, we asked he local expe s abou he ime in e al in which a me s ypically
i iga e, which helps in unde s anding he di ec ion o hese non-bene icially consumed quan i ies.
I iga ion applica ion du ing wa m imes o he day could lead o highe e apo a ion, while
applica ion du ing he cold imes o he day po en ially gene a es highe in il a ion a es. E e y
expe con i med ha a me s i iga e du ing he cold pe iods, in ei he mo nings, e enings, o a
combina ion o bo h.
77
Figu e 4.9: Fa me s' assessmen o hei d ip i iga ion sys ems’ quali y
To summa ise, we a e assessing he ag icul u al wa e use o an a ea ha has p ecipi a ion in
low in ensi y and equency, high pe meable soil ypes, semi-a id o a id wea he condi ions all-
yea -long, and a dominance o i iga ed a mlands ia d ip i iga ion. Based on he a ailable da a
and su ey esul s, i was es ima ed ha 15% o he applied i iga ion om abs ac ions we e
lowing in o di ec ions o he han sa is ying CWD, which ag ees wi h p e ious s udies such as
Ma ínez and Reca (2014). Thus:
RFEq +NREq =0.15×VA
(4.1)
Whe e:
RFEq: In il a ion back o EAB due o i iga ion equipmen sho comings.
NREq: E apo a ion caused by i iga ion equipmen sho comings.
Simila ly, we canno an icipa e ha he c op will bene i om he en i e ain all quan i y o achie e
i s wa e demand unde he a o emen ioned ci cums ances. Following he FAO guidelines abou
e ec i e ain all (B ouwe & Heibloem, 1986; Smi h, 1992), i he mon hly p ecipi a ion a e is
lowe han 17 mm, he e ec i e ain all is negligible, meaning ha he c op will ge none o his
ain o mee i s wa e demand. In only 3 mon hs (Janua y, Feb ua y, and Decembe ), he
p ecipi a ion a e exceeded he 17 mm/mon h h eshold by a small ma gin, which indica es ha
only 8 mm o e ec i e p ecipi a ion ou o he 99 mm o al p ecipi a ion was a ailable o e he
en i e g owing season.
42%
45%
13%
Bes in he ma ke
Needs imp o emen
Needs eplacemen
78
The emaining 91 mm, he e o e, lows in o o he di ec ions. Due o soil ype, low in ensi y, and
quan i y o ain e en s and wea he condi ions, i was assumed ha he su ace uno was
negligible. Thus, RP = ze o, and:
RFPP+NRPP =91 mm×A ea
(4.2)
Whe e:
RFPP: In il a ion back o EAB a e ain all e en s.
NRPP: E apo a ion a e ain all e en s.
4.2.3. Wa e Balance Applica ion
Applying wa e balance (Equa ion (3.1)) o he quan i ies calcula ed hus a indica es an excess
o wa e lowing ou o he sys em compa ed o in lows om g oundwa e wi hd awal and
p ecipi a ion. Acco ding o he PWA o icial epo s and local ag icul u al expe s, he e a e no
o he wa e esou ces a ailable, hence, he di e ence is compensa ed h ough un epo ed
abs ac ions om local wells o sp ings. This ins ance will be abb e ia ed as VAUn . Enginee Deeb
Abdulgha ou con i med his conclusion du ing ou in e iew. He also explained ha a subs an ial
numbe o un epo ed wells and sp ings a e old and amily inhe i ed p ope ies, which a me s
do no epo in ea o closu e.
The e o e, and in o de o e lec he ac ual lows in and ou o he WUS, Equa ion (3.1) was
adap ed o:
VAPWA +VAUn +PP=ET+RFEq +NREq +RFPP +NRPP
(4.3)
As a esul , he gene ic schema ic in Figu e 3.1 can be ans o med o ep esen he ac ual wa e
low ins ances depic ed in Figu e 4.10.
Applying Equa ions (4.1), (4.2), and (4.3) esul ed in he alues o RFEq, NREq, RFPP, NRPP, and
VAUn , aking in o conside a ion ha VAUn is he slack a iable in o de o main ain wa e balance
as explained.
79
Figu e 4.10: Schema ic o he ac ual wa e pa h ins ances (WPIs) lowing in and ou o wa e use sys em (WUS)
Table 4.4 summa ises he inal es ima ion esul s o he quan i ies o he di e en wa e ins ances
in ou wa e use sys em.
Table 4.4: Summa y o he wa e ins ances quan i ies
Va iable
PP
VAPWA
VAUn
ET
RFEq
NREq
RFPP
NRPP
𝑿 (Mm3)
3.59
24.19
14.40
33.09
3.47
2.32
1.98
1.32
4.3. Quali y Weigh s Assessmen
Wa e quali y a iables a e o a high complexi y due o he a ie y o condi ions and cha ac e is ics
unde conside a ion. Mo eo e , he quali y dimension is no only abou he quali y o wa e and
he sys em ha wa e lows h ough, bu also abou he le el o ole a ion o a design quali y. Fo
ins ance, PWA epo ed a ound 45% o EAB wells’ abs ac ion in 2011 om shallow laye s o poo
wa e quali y (i.e. b ackish). This becomes mo e no iceable among he sp ings’ abs ac ion,
especially he close we mo e owa ds he Dead Sea a ea. The e o e, we would an icipa e he
quali y weigh o e lec ha by being less han 1. Ye , i a me s used such wa e o plan ing
high ole ance c ops, such as da es, ha should mi iga e he impac o salini y on he quali y
weigh .

80
As a me s adap hei p ac ices o he a ailable le el o wa e quali y, i was assumed ha he
quali y o he wa e abs ac ed would be as high as 0.9. No e ha , as Eng. Abdulgha ou
con i med, he PWA applies some basic le el o ea men on he abs ac ed quan i ies, hence,
we could no se his alue o be as high as 1.
In ega d o he p ecipi a ion, e apo anspi a ion, and he non euseables, since hey a e WPTs o
pu e wa e o ms, hei quali y alues we e assumed o be 1 o each.
The ni a e concen a ion esul s o he PWA- es ed samples o andomly selec ed wells in he
egion be ween 2005 and 2009 (Figu e 4.11) indica e a end o inc ease.
Figu e 4.11: Annual a e age ni a e con en in selec ed wells in he Jo dan Valley
I is impo an o no e he e ha :
1. FAO’s guidelines o in e p e a ions o wa e quali y o i iga ion sugges a sligh o
mode a e deg ee o es ic ions on use a 5–30 mg/l ni a e concen a ion ange (Aye s;
5
8
4
10
5
2
57
45
37
42
48
30 29 31
35
42 44
51
93
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2009
Ni a e Concen a ion (mg/l)
Yea
19-14/003 19-14/062 19-14/067 19-14/073 20-17/018
81
& Wes co , 1985), which includes 3 o he 5 es ed wells and p o ides a sense o
con ollabili y.
2. Ni a e is no he only pa ame e ha de ines wa e quali y.
Despi e hese wo ac s, he aim he e is no o assess he wa e quali y i sel bu o es ima e he
impac weigh o he WUS’s e u n low on he main sou ce. Al hough his end is mo e appa en
in ce ain wells han o he s, i indica es a conside able in ensi y o ag icul u al ac i i ies, especially
be ween 2007 and 2009. Consequen ly, he quali y weigh o he e u n low would be
signi ican ly low. We assumed his weigh o be 0.2, and hen made pa o he scena io analysis
la e .
4.4. Bene icial Weigh s Assessmen
Se iciency e lec s on he sys em’s objec i es o each o he s akeholde s ia quan i ying he
bene i o a wa e use acco dingly. Typically, he di e en in e es s o s akeholde s a y om being
economic, social, en i onmen al and e en poli ical. The key he e is o ealise he di e ences in
objec i es and in wa e managemen and e iciency pe cep ions be ween he local a me s and
he local manage s in he Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y (PWA).
F om he su ey conduc ed, a me s clea ly exp essed hei main objec i e om using he
abs ac ed wa e is o maximise hei yield. While 4 ou 10 a me s exp essed di icul y in ge ing
access o he wa e hey need, a ound 58% men ioned hey will expand hei ag icul u al ac i i y
i hey ge access o mo e wa e .
F om he manage s’ pe spec i e, he Di ec o Gene al o Wa e Resou ces Managemen a PWA,
Eng. Deeb Abdulgha ou , men ioned ha hei main objec i e is, on he one hand, o keep a
balance be ween sa is ying he high demand, which is i al o he economy and, on he o he
hand, o p ese e he aqui e om i s s eady-s a e o de e io a ion. He added ha he PWA plans
o do ha h ough ge ing access o o he esou ces, mainly uncon en ional esou ces such as
was ewa e ea men , in o de o mi iga e he p essu e on he EAB sys em. In ac , 70% o he
su eyed a me s indica ed hey we e willing o use ea ed was ewa e in i iga ion.
When i comes o he bene icial weigh o all o ms o in low, bo h sides ag ee o se he bene icial
weigh s o hese ins ances a ela i ely high alues. Al hough his is ue o he abs ac ed wa e
ins ances (VAPWA and VAUn ), ou analysis o he e ec i eness o ain all e en s o c op demand
82
sugges s ha he bene icial weigh o PP canno be as high. Based on ha analysis, we es ima ed
he bene icial weigh o PP o bo h manage s and a me s as equal o 0.6.
Fo he ou low ins ances, howe e , manage s conside p ese ing he long- e m le el o he
basin, while a me s do no sha e such conce ns. Thus, he bene icial alue o RF is qui e
di e en be ween he wo pa ies. Enginee Abdulgha ou con i med ha all e u ned quan i ies
o he aqui e a e essen ial, hence we se he bene icial alues o RF ins ances o be as high as
1 o manage s. On he o he hand, only 2 ou o e e y 10 a me s exp essed in e es o showed
awa eness abou he signi icance o hese quan i ies, hus we se he WbRF alue o a me s o
be 0.2. No e ha he a o emen ioned 70% o a me s, who a e willing o use ea ed was ewa e ,
we e e e ing o he planned PWA p ojec s o municipal was ewa e ea men plan s.
The NR ins ances a e non-use ul by de ini ion. Nei he he in e iewed manage no he su eyed
a me s exp essed an in e es in i . The e o e, we assumed he bene icial weigh alues o NR
ins ances o be as low as 0.1 o bo h s akeholde s. We could ha e assumed his weigh o be 0
as well, ne e heless, he in luence o such di e ence (0 o 0.1) on he inal esul s is a he
negligible.
In ega d o ET’s bene icial alue, which ep esen s he yield, al hough he en i e WUS is designed
o maximise i , in eali y, i canno be se o he highes possible alue. This is because o he
unwan ed plan s (weed) issue. In he su ey, 47.5% o a me s claimed hey ea hese plan s
p oac i ely using pes icides and do no su e his issue. The emaining 52.5% o a me s es ima e
he size o hese plan s as a pe cen age o hei o al a mlands: wo- hi d es ima ed 15%, while
he o he hi d es ima ed 10%. Based on hese es ima es, he bene icial weigh alue o ET was
se o 0.92.
Finally, Table 4.5 summa ises he ull cha ac e is ics o ou wa e use sys em, including he WPIs’
quan i ies, quali y, and bene icial weigh s.
83
Table 4.5: WUS ull cha ac e is ics
Va iable
𝑿
(Mm3)
𝑾𝒒𝑿
𝑾𝒃𝑿
Fa me s
𝑾𝒃𝑿
Manage s
𝑿𝒔 (Mm3)
Fa me s
𝑿𝒔 (Mm3)
Manage s
PP
3.59
1
0.6
0.6
2.15
2.15
VAPWA
24.19
0.9
1
1
21.77
21.77
VAUn
14.40
0.9
1
1
12.96
12.96
ET
33.09
1
0.92
0.92
30.44
30.44
RFEq
3.47
0.2
0.2
1
0.14
0.69
NREq
2.32
1
0.1
0.1
0.23
0.23
RFPP
1.98
0.2
0.2
1
0.08
0.40
NRPP
1.32
1
0.1
0.1
0.13
0.13
90
ad an ageous. Likewise, manage s could also con ibu e h ough es ablishing policies and
p og ammes ha enhance he selec ion o high socio-economic alue c ops.
Since yield p oduc ion is he cen e o his WUS, he esul s o his scena io show a signi ican
inc ease in he sys em pe o mance wi h such a change. The pe o mance o bo h a me s’ and
manage s’ objec i es inc eased signi ican ly in bo h models by mo e han 6 pp.

91
CHAPTER SIX. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
SEFFICIENCY
In his chap e , we will examine he clima e change impac s on he di e en wa e pa h ins ances
and Se iciency esul s. In o de o do ha , we will cons uc in sec ion 6.1 di e en scena ios
ha include po en ial changes in empe a u e and p ecipi a ion unde he clima e change
p ojec ions p esen ed in he Pales inian Na ional Adap a ion Plan (NAP) o Clima e Change. In
addi ion, we will e alua e he alidi y o including he popula ion g ow h in hese scena ios. In
sec ions 6.2 and 6.3, we will p esen and discuss he changes in he wa e use sys em’s a iables
unde he cons uc ed scena ios, and he impac o hese changes on he Se iciency esul s.
6.1. Scena ios Building
No one can p edic u u e e en s; ins ead, scien is s a emp o simula e he po en ial impac s o
likely changes ollowing a scien i ic me hodological app oach wi hin a ma gin o unce ain y. Mos
o he common app oaches o simula e changes a e based on analysing his o ical ends and
exis ing condi ions o p ojec u u e beha iou s. Clima e change is a clea example o whe e such
app oaches a e used.
6.1.1. Clima e Change Conside a ions
In his s udy, we a e assessing he e iciency o ag icul u al wa e use in a de ined WUS in which
a me s mainly depend on i iga ed a ming. Among he mos c i ical ac o s ha in luence
i iga ed a ming a e he clima ic condi ions. Such in luence is mos e iden in p ecipi a ion and
e apo anspi a ion.
In he upcoming sec ions and subsec ions, we will ocus ou analysis on empe a u e and
p ecipi a ion a ia ions due o hei signi icance. On he o he hand, we will neglec he a ia ions
in sunshine hou s, ela i e humidi y, and wind speed despi e hei in luence in ET. This is
because, acco ding o Fo s e e al. (2007), he p ojec ed changes in hese a iables a e
insigni ican and widely unce ain.
92
As explained in sec ion 3.5, we will ely in his domain on he simula ion esul s o he Pales inian
Na ional Adap a ion Plan (NAP) o Clima e Change epo (Smi he s e al., 2016). Consequen ly,
we will adop hei ime in e als o scena ios’ building, RCPs’ selec ions, and esul s o he
empe a u e and p ecipi a ion p ojec ions. These p ojec ions a e ou comes o a simula ion on an
annual basis and we assumed hem o be uni o m o e he 12 mon hs. We unde s and ha such
an assump ion does no ep esen eali y, howe e , he objec i e he e is o assess a ange o
impac s, and hus we claim ha he e ec o he mon hly a ia ions o hese changes is mino o
ou objec i e.
Unde wo ep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways (RCPs), namely RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, we will
hypo hesise six di e en scena ios co esponding o he p ojec ed changes in h ee yea s. These
scena ios will be iden i ied as he ollowing:
- RCP2.6-2025
- RCP2.6-2055
- RCP2.6-2090
- RCP6.0-2025
- RCP6.0-2055
- RCP6.0-2090
To cla i y, o ins ance, RCP2.6-2055 co esponds o he p ojec ed empe a u e and p ecipi a ion
changes unde RCP2.6 in he yea 2055. RCP2.6 is he pa hway conside ing a change in clima e
esul ing om a a ge change in ene gy lux equals 2.6 W/m2 by he yea 2100.
6.1.2. Wha Abou Popula ion G ow h?
Undoub edly, he Middle Eas is one o he egions whe e he popula ion is g owing. Pales ine
and Je icho a e no an excep ion wi h posi i e popula ion g ow h a es o 2.66% and 2.27%,
espec i ely. I his s udy had been abou domes ic wa e use, popula ion g ow h would ha e been
a key. None heless, since he WUS unde conside a ion o his s udy is he ag icul u al wa e
use, he a gumen may di e .
Despi e Je icho’s size ha ep esen s a ound 9% o he o al a ea o Pales ine, i is home o
a ound 50% o Wes Bank’s ag icul u al lands, whe e 60% o he o al ege able p oduc ion in ha
egion akes place (WAFA 2015). Hence, he impac o any g ow h in he o e all Pales inian
93
popula ion, no only in Je icho Go e no a e, on he ag icul u al sec o has o be ca e ully
examined.
F om a b oad pe spec i e, popula ion g ow h as an indica o o he ag icul u al ac i i ies’
expansion in a gi en egion is a obus app oach. As discussed in subsec ion 2.6.1, Jayyousi e
al. (2004) adop ed a local s udy o es ima e he a e age annual consump ion o i iga ed c ops,
which was a ound 272 kg pe capi a; b oken down in o 179 kg ege ables, 40 kg melons, and
53 kg o anges and bananas. An analysis could ollow a simila app oach o es ima e he inc eased
demand, and hus he p ojec ed inc ease in he ag icul u al ac i i ies acco ding o he popula ion
g ow h. Howe e , by ollowing ha , such an analysis would be alling unde he assump ion ha
he po en ial o de elop addi ional a mlands exis s.
On he con a y, aking a close look a he ag icul u al de elopmen in Je icho o e he pas 25
yea s, we canno see a end o expansion. Al hough 2010/2011 was he only season in which
he Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics conduc ed a comp ehensi e ag icul u al census, we
could ga he om sca e ed epo s PCBS p e iously published ough es ima es o he o al
numbe o a mland dunums.
The da a we ound co e s mos o he seasons in he pe iod be ween 1993 and 2011. Fo he
seasons wi h no da a, we assumed hei inpu s based on in e pola ion o simplici y since we a e
looking o a end a he han accu a e es ima es. Table 6.1 and Figu e 6.1 summa ise hese
da a agains he popula ion g ow h du ing hese yea s o compa e. Besides, we hough i would
be use ul o include in his analysis he annual p ecipi a ion a es in each o hose yea s o e lec
i he e was any co ela ion be ween he olume o ag icul u al ac i i ies and he p ecipi a ion a e
in a gi en season.
Acco ding o he ou comes o Figu e 6.1, we can obse e no co ela ion be ween he p ecipi a ion
a es and he ag icul u al ac i i ies in a gi en season. This is qui e expec ed in an a id egion ha
hea ily depends on i iga ed a ming. Mo e impo an ly, o e he 18-yea -pe iod shown in he
g aph, he e is an appa en i egula i y in he numbe o a mland dunums om one yea o
ano he . None heless, se e al indica o s lead us o belie e a mlands a e no expanding (i no
sh inking). Fi s , he season ha has he mos a mlands dunums is he oldes among hose
analysed (1993/1994). In addi ion, he mos ecen season shown in he g aph has he hi d
leas numbe o a mland dunums. Finally, as we ha e discussed ea lie , ag icul u e’s
94
con ibu ion o he Pales inian GDP d opped om 9.3% in 1999 o 4% in 2012 (Wo ld Bank,
2012).
Table 6.1: A ea o a mlands, popula ion, and p ecipi a ion pe season be ween 1993 and 2011 in Je ich
go e no a e
Sou ce: A collec ion o epo s ha can be ound in (PCBS, 2016)
Season
A ea o Fa mlands
(Dunums)
Popula ion
P ecipi a ion
(mm)
1993/1994
57,467
28,116**
147.0***
1994/1995
46,276
29,106**
147.0***
1995/1996
39,547
30,098**
147.0***
1996/1997
36,037
31,089
224.6
1997/1998
36,749
32,105
90.1
1998/1999
34,179
33,145
48.7
1999/2000
41,159
34,188
152.8
2000/2001
37,524
35,162
148.4
2001/2002
39,399*
36,154
147.0***
2002/2003
41,274
37,173
194.0
2003/2004
50,089
38,232
128.5
2004/2005
44,752
39,378
117.0
2005/2006
45,194
40,559
147.0***
2006/2007
45,607
41,776
115.2
2007/2008
52,150
42,587
118.8
2008/2009
46,859*
43,389
115.7
2009/2010
41,569*
44,184
124.2
2010/2011
36,278
44,973
99.0
* A ea was es ima ed ia in e pola ion due o lack o o icial da a
** Popula ion was es ima ed acco ding o he g ow h a e due o lack o o icial da a
*** Due o lack o o icial eco ds, he numbe p esen ed is he long- e m annual a e age
As a esul , we can conclude ha he assump ion o a po en ial expansion in he ag icul u al
ac i i ies in he egion is no an accu a e ep esen a ion o eali y. The e o e, we assumed ha
he popula ion g ow h will no ha e a signi ican impac on he size o he ag icul u al ac i i ies,
and hence o h excluded om ou scena io analysis.
95
Figu e 6.1: A ea o a mlands a ia ion, popula ion g ow h, and p ecipi a ion pe season be ween 1993 and 2011
in Je icho go e no a e
6.2. Se iciency Unde RCP2.6 Pa hway
RCP2.6 pa hway ep esen s he UNFCCC’s a ge o he maximum inc ease in global mean
empe a u e o 2.0°C. Acco ding o he Pales inian NAP, he mos likely changes unde RCP2.6
pa hway in Pales ine a e a empe a u e inc ease o 0.5°C in 2025, 1.0°C in 2055, and 1.5°C
in 2090. Fo p ecipi a ion, he e is a p ojec ed sligh dec ease o 2% in 2025, 5% in 2055, and
goes up o 10% in 2090.
In he ollowing subsec ions, we will p esen o each yea ’s scena io a able ha summa ises he
new quan i ies o he wa e pa hs ins ances and he changes in Se iciency a meso le el
(𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠) compa ing o he alues in he 2010/2011 season.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
mm
Dunum | Capi a
Season
Dunums o Fa mlands Popula ion P ecipi a ion

96
6.2.1. RCP2.6-2025 Scena io
Unde his scena io, he empe a u e will inc ease by 0.5°C and he p ecipi a ion will dec ease
by 2%. Table 6.2 p esen s he new alues o each a iable in ou WUS conside ing hese
empe a u e and p ecipi a ion changes. The ull de ails abou he changes in ET alues o each
c op unde his scena io and he ollowing emaining scena ios a e a ailable in Appendix III. As
shown in he able, along wi h he an icipa ed dec ease in p ecipi a ion ha leads o a 1% dec ease
in bo h RFPP and NRPP, he e is a ela i ely signi ican 4% inc ease in ET. These inc eases ha e
necessa ily o be compensa ed by addi ional abs ac ions o main ain wa e balance. The WUS
will need as much as an 11% inc ease in abs ac ions conside ing he a o emen ioned changes
unde RCP2.6-2025 o main ain he same yield p oduc ion, which will esul in a 4% inc ease in
bo h RFEq and NREq. Unde his scena io and he ollowing emaining scena ios, we assumed he
addi ional abs ac ions o be un epo ed abs ac ions a he han VAPWA, bu in ei he way, each
would ha e he same in luence on Se iciency esul s.
Besides, we analysed he impac o hese changes on he alues o he quali y and bene icial
weigh s o each a iable and ound ha he e would be no angible change.
Table 6.2: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP2.6-2025
Va iable
𝑿 (Mm3)
% o
Change
𝑿𝒔 (Mm3)
Fa me s
𝑿𝒔 (Mm3)
Manage s
PP
3.52
-2
2.11
2.11
VAPWA
24.19
0
21.77
21.77
VAUn
15.94
11
14.35
14.35
ET
34.37
4
31.62
31.62
RFEq
3.61
4
0.14
0.72
NREq
2.41
4
0.24
0.24
RFPP
1.96
-1
0.08
0.39
NRPP
1.31
-1
0.13
0.13
Figu e 6.2 illus a es he changes in Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2025 scena io om bo h
manage s’ and a me s’ pe spec i es. As shown in he igu e, om he manage s’ pe spec i e,
each o 𝑐𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 and 𝑖𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 has insigni ican ly inc eased by 0.1 pe cen age poin s (pp).
97
Simila ly, om he a me s’ pe spec i e, 𝑐𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 and 𝑖𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 has bo h sligh ly imp o ed
by 0.2 pp. The absence o a signi ican change (nei he posi i e no nega i e) clea ly shows ha
he inc ease in ET alue unde such a change in clima ic condi ions would no impac he WUS’s
pe o mance i i was accompanied by a p opo iona e inc ease in g oundwa e wi hd awals. This
is expec ed in a egion unde wa e sho age, whe e highe quan i ies o wi hd awals abo e he
demand a e no expec ed.
Figu e 6.2: Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2025
6.2.2. RCP2.6-2055 Scena io
Unde his scena io, he empe a u e will inc ease by 1.0°C and he p ecipi a ion will dec ease
by 5%. Table 6.3 p o ides he new alues o each a iable in ou WUS conside ing hese
empe a u e and p ecipi a ion changes. As shown in he able, along wi h he an icipa ed 5%
dec ease in p ecipi a ion ha leads o a 3% dec ease in bo h RFPP and NRPP, he e is a 5% inc ease
in ET. These changes ha e ine i ably o be compensa ed by mo e g oundwa e wi hd awals o
main ain wa e balance. The WUS will need up o a 15% inc ease in abs ac ions conside ing he
84.1%
84.0%
84.3%
84.2%
86.5%
86.1%
86.6%
86.2%
82.5% 83.0% 83.5% 84.0% 84.5% 85.0% 85.5% 86.0% 86.5% 87.0%
iMesoSEs
cMesoSEs
RCP2.6-2025 Manage s 2010/2011 Manage s
RCP2.6-2025 Fa me s 2010/2011 Fa me s
98
changes unde RCP2.6-2055 o main ain he same le el o ag icul u al ac i i ies, which will lead
o a 5% inc ease in each o RFEq and NREq.
We analysed he impac o hese changes on he alues o he quali y and bene icial weigh s o
each a iable and ound ha he e would be no angible change.
Table 6.3: WUS cha ac e is ics unde RCP2.6-2055
Va iable
𝑿 (Mm3)
% o
Change
𝑿𝒔 (Mm3)
Fa me s
𝑿𝒔 (Mm3)
Manage s
PP
3.41
-5
2.05
2.05
VAPWA
24.19
0
21.77
21.77
VAUn
16.52
15
14.87
14.87
ET
34.82
5
32.03
32.03
RFEq
3.66
5
0.15
0.73
NREq
2.44
5
0.24
0.24
RFPP
1.92
-3
0.08
0.38
NRPP
1.28
-3
0.13
0.13
Figu e 6.3 shows he changes in Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2055 scena io om bo h
manage s’ and a me s’ pe spec i es. Simila o he esul s unde RCP2.6-2025, o each o
𝑐𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 and 𝑖𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 conside ing bo h pe spec i es, he e is no signi ican change in
Se iciency esul s due o he alloca ion o enough abs ac ions o add ess he a o emen ioned
inc eases in ET, RFEq, and NREq.
6.2.3. RCP2.6-2090 Scena io
Unde his scena io, he empe a u e will inc ease by 1.5°C and he p ecipi a ion will dec ease
by 10%. Table 6.4 p esen s he new alues o each a iable in ou WUS conside ing hese
empe a u e and p ecipi a ion changes. As shown in he able, along wi h he an icipa ed
conside able dec ease in p ecipi a ion ha leads o a 7% dec ease in bo h RFPP and NRPP, he e is
a ela i ely weigh y 7% inc ease in ET. These inc eases shall be compensa ed by addi ional
abs ac ions (a signi ican 19% inc ease in VAUn ) o main ain wa e balance and he same a e o
yield o p oduc ion, which will esul in a 7% inc ease in bo h RFEq and NREq.
99
The impac s o hese changes on he alues o he quali y and bene icial weigh s o each a iable
a e negligible.
Figu e 6.3: Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2055
Figu e 6.4 illus a es he changes in Se iciency esul s unde RCP2.6-2090 scena io om bo h
manage s’ and a me s’ pe spec i es. As shown in he igu e, om he manage s’ pe spec i e,
each o 𝑐𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 and 𝑖𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 has insigni ican ly inc eased by 0.2 pe cen age poin s (pp).
Simila ly, om he a me s’ pe spec i e, 𝑐𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 and 𝑖𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 has bo h sligh ly imp o ed
by 0.4 pp.
The o e all esul s o he h ee in e als’ scena ios unde RCP2.6 pa hway indica e a mino
impac on he Se iciency esul s, meaning ha he WUS will main ain a simila pe o mance a
he meso le el conside ing he p ojec ed clima ic changes unde his pa hway. Howe e , he mo e
he empe a u e inc eases and p ecipi a ion dec eases, he u he abs ac ions ha he sys em
will need o main ain he same le el o ag icul u al ac i i ies, which ep esen s a subs an ial
conce n on he aqui e ’s sus ainabili y.
84.1%
84.0%
84.3%
84.3%
86.5%
86.1%
86.7%
86.3%
82.5% 83.0% 83.5% 84.0% 84.5% 85.0% 85.5% 86.0% 86.5% 87.0%
iMesoSEs
cMesoSEs
RCP2.6-2055 Manage s 2010/2011 Manage s
RCP2.6-2055 Fa me s 2010/2011 Fa me s
106
Simila o RCP2.6 pa hway, he o e all esul s o he h ee in e als’ scena ios unde RCP6.0
pa hway indica e a mino impac on he Se iciency esul s, meaning ha he WUS will main ain
a simila pe o mance a he meso le el conside ing he p ojec ed clima ic changes unde his
pa hway.
Once mo e, he esul s clea ly show ha he inc eased ET alue unde such sizeable changes in
clima ic condi ions would no impac he WUS’s pe o mance i i was accompanied by a
p opo iona e inc ease in g oundwa e wi hd awals. As men ioned ea lie , his is expec ed in a
egion unde wa e sho age, whe e highe quan i ies o wi hd awals abo e he demand a e no
expec ed.
Ne e heless, he main conce n ha comes ou o ou scena io analyses is he sus ainabili y o
he main sou ce, he Eas e n Aqui e Basin (EAB). Unde bo h pa hways, he e we e subs an ial
inc eases in abs ac ions o e he consecu i e yea s pa alleled wi h a con inuous dec ease in
p ecipi a ion a es. As shown in Figu es 6.8 and 6.9, he gap be ween he inc eased abs ac ions
om he main sou ce and p ecipi a ion, which is he aqui e ’s main eplenishmen sou ce, kep
inc easing mo ing o wa d in ime unde bo h RCPs. Mo e impo an ly, assuming sus aining he
same le el o ag icul u al ac i i ies, he gap be ween he main consump i e wa e use, ET, and
he aqui e ’s main eplenishmen sou ce also kep inc easing.
This combina ion o changes is subs an ially damaging o he aqui e ’s sus ainabili y. Since
𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸 ela es o he in e ac ion be ween he use ul ou low and o al low, such as he WUS’s
impac on he downs eam use s and he e ec s o i s e u n ins ances, i will no e lec he
WUS’s impac on main sou ce’s sus ainabili y. This is wha Mac o-Se iciency (𝑀𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸) is
mean o assess. 𝑀𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸 would equi e measu es o wa e able le els a he beginning and
end o he analysis pe iod.
Fu he mo e, he gaps illus a ed in Figu es 6.8 and 6.9 deli e a message ha he egion needs
a la ge ( ansbounda y) scale assessmen . The sus ainabili y o EAB would c ucially equi e join
manage ial e o s o assess he e iciencies and impac s o he egional WUSs on EAB. Hence,
he scale o such an assessmen should be wide enough o include o he wa e uses sys ems
ha depend on EAB as hei main sou ce.

107
Figu e 6.8: Pe cen age change o PP, VA, and ET unde RCP2.6 pa hway scena ios
RCP2.6-2025 RCP2.6-2055 RCP2.6-2090
PP -2 -5 -10
VA 11 15 19
ET 457
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Change (%)
Scena io
108
Figu e 6.9: Pe cen age change o PP, VA, and ET unde RCP6.0 pa hway scena ios
RCP6.0-2025 RCP6.0-2055 RCP6.0-2090
PP 0 -10 -20
VA 10 19 30
ET 4 7 10
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Change (%)
Scena io
109
CHAPTER SEVEN. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS
We will discuss in he inal wo sec ions o his hesis he ema ks and indings ha we can
conclude om his s udy in addi ion o he ecommended u u e wo ks. This is o a high
signi icance as we conside his esea ch wo k as a link in he chain o knowledge wi hin he ields
o wa e esou ces and i iga ion managemen in Pales ine a he han a disc e e piece.
7.1. Conclusions
In egions such as Pales ine, he ques ion o wa e sca ci y expands beyond he a ailabili y o
accessibili y o wa e . Wa e use sys ems and he assessmen o hei e iciency a e complex due
o he na u e o hei a iables’ dynamics. A e applying Se iciency a meso le el (𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠) in
his s udy, we ha e eached conclusions ha can change, a leas , he mindse o he wa e
esou ces s akeholde s in Pales ine, especially in i iga ion managemen .
The o e all esul s o 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠, om he manage s’ and a me s’ pe spec i es conside ing he
in low and consump ion models, ha e no allen below 80%. To desc ibe o classi y he esul in o
a ce ain ca ego y (e.g. good, sa is ac o y, poo , and so on) is a managemen decision based on
p ede ined c i e ia and objec i es. Ne e heless, in a wa e -sca ce egion, imp o emen s and
e icien wa e use enhancemen s a e always in need. Addi ionally, in a u u e s udy ha includes
Mac oSE esul s, we may ind ou low alues a he mac o le el ha demons a es he need o
some undamen al changes in managing wa e in ha pa o he wo ld.
This s udy p o ed ha some changes in he h ee pilla s o wa e managemen could lead o
g ea impac s on he o e all WUS’s pe o mance. To elabo a e, imp o ing he quali y o e u n
lows o ins ance, as examined in scena io SC1, has led o subs an ial changes in he WUS. To
begin wi h, such an imp o emen can ake place h ough one o a combina ion o ac i i ies such
as educing he use o chemical subs ances in ag icul u e and eusing he ag icul u al
was ewa e . Each o hese ac ions is, a minimum, a collec i e e o ha encompasses a lo o
esou ces and manage ial in e en ions. Se iciency esul s unde his scena io indica ed how
signi ican an imp o emen o 𝑊𝑞𝑅𝐹 can be on he o e all pe o mance o ou WUS. F om he
manage s’ pe spec i e, in bo h in low and consump ion models, 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 jumped by mo e han
110
10 pe cen age poin s (pp), and om he a me s’ pe spec i e, i jumped by mo e han 3 pp in
bo h models as well. Al hough we do no accoun o he Is aeli side’s use in he scope o his
s udy, which is epo edly highe , he meso le el and sensi i i y analysis esul s o SC1
demons a ed he impac o chemical subs ances use on he basin.
One o he g ea es ad an ages o adop ing Se iciency is o unde line he WUS’s weak poin s.
The numbe o un epo ed abs ac ions is a c i ical poin , which is also a p oblem in many pa s
o he wo ld. Despi e he PWA’s awa eness and acknowledgemen o he issue as was con i med
in ou in e iew wi h Eng. Deeb Abdulgha ou , Di ec o -Gene al o Wa e Resou ces Managemen
a he Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y (PWA), and despi e he g ea sensi i i y o he issue as he
desc ibed, we demons a ed how signi ican i could in luence he unde s anding o he WUS’s
pe o mance.
In ac , any unde es ima ion o VAUn alues a ec s Se iciency esul s. In all o ou hypo hesised
scena ios, including he six clima e change p ojec ions, we assumed ha he numbe o
un epo ed abs ac ions would be as much o sa is y he exis ing ET alues o main ain wa e
balance. Ne e heless, while VAUn alues a e unlikely o be lowe gi en he demons a ed
analyses, hey may well be highe han p esen ed h oughou his s udy, in which case e u n
lows and po en ial e u ns main ain wa e balance. Consequen ly, he dynamics o he en i e
sys em would change, including he use ulness c i e ion. In o de o illus a e ha , le us assume
ha we unde es ima ed he alue o VAUn by 10%, which is he equi alen o he amoun o VAPWA
inc ease we hypo hesised in SC2. Ou analysis o his scena io showed ha se e al consequences
will be encoun e ed in he WUS, including a 42% inc ease in RFEq o main ain wa e balance
accompanied by a change in i s 𝑊𝑞 o 0.5. Mo e impo an ly, i showed ha 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s
d opped down by nea ly 4 pp om he a me s’ pe spec i e in bo h in low and consump ion
models, which is a signi ican d op. I has also sligh ly d opped om he manage s’ pe spec i e
in bo h models despi e he imp o emen in 𝑊𝑞𝑅𝐹.
The ema kable con as o 𝑊𝑞𝑅𝐹 imp o emen ’s impac on 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s be ween
scena ios SC1 and SC2, depending on he eason causing ha imp o emen , is a clea
demons a ion ha he ela ionship be ween he di e en WUS’s a iables is no linea , especially
when conside ing he quali y and bene icence dimensions o hose a iables. Fu he mo e,
con a y o wha we ound in SC2 esul s, scena io SC3’s analysis p o es ha an inc ease in
p ecipi a ion, which is ano he o m o in low, could ha e a no iceable posi i e impac on
111
𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s. While a 10% inc ease in VAPWA led o a d op in 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠, we ound ha a 48%
inc ease in PP ( o ma ch he long- e m a e age) imp o ed i by mo e han 2 pp om he
manage s’ pe spec i e and by mo e han 1 pp om he a me s’ pe spec i e in bo h models.
This is ye ano he clea example o he nonlinea i y in he sys ems’ dynamics.
Ano he g ea ad an age o adop ing Se iciency is o highligh he oppo uni ies o enhance he
WUS’s sus ainabili y and maximise he bene i s acco ding o he de ined objec i es. Fo example,
scena io SC4 demons a ed he conside able bene i o educing he unwan ed c ops (weed) in
ou WUS (using eco- iendly me hods), he selec ion o high socio-economic alue c ops, o a
combina ion o bo h. In ou analysis o SC4, we hypo hesised ha such ac ions would lead o a
7% inc ease in 𝑊𝑏𝐸𝑇, a change ha esul ed in imp o ing 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 conside ably by mo e han
6 pp om bo h s akeholde s’ pe spec i es in bo h in low and consump ion models.
This las conclusion in pa icula dis inguishes Se iciency wi h a unique ea u e. No o he wa e
use e iciency assessmen app oach can ansla e policy decisions, ield ac ions, en i onmen al
conside a ions, and socio-economic measu es he way Se iciency does. I acili a es o bo h
s akeholde s and WUS’s use s a ool and, mo e impo an ly, a mindse ha helps hem achie e
he mos e icien u ilisa ion o EAB, he main sou ce unde conside a ion.
In ega ds o he po en ial clima e change impac s on empe a u e and p ecipi a ion in he egion,
ou analysis showed a mino e ec o hose p ojec ed changes on 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s unde he
six di e en hypo hesised scena ios. Fo ins ance, he mos sizeable changes a e expec ed o
ake place wi hin he RCP6.0-2090 scena io, whe e p ojec ions expec he empe a u e o
inc ease by 3.0°C and p ecipi a ion o dec ease by 20%. These p ojec ions will ha e d ama ic
impac s on he di e en wa e pa h ins ances, such as a 30% inc ease in VA and a 10% inc ease
in ET consump ion. Ye , 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s om bo h s akeholde s’ pe spec i es in bo h in low
and consump ion models changed by less han 1 pp.
The Se iciency esul s o he clima e change po en ial impac s’ wi hin ou WUS highligh s ha
he pe o mance a 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 le el can be main ained as long as we we e able o p o ide he
sys em wi h addi ional abs ac ions enough o compensa e o he inc ease in ET due o he
inc ease in empe a u e and dec ease in p ecipi a ion, and assuming ha 𝑊𝑠𝑋 alues emain he
same. This necessa ily means ha in o de o main ain he same le el o ag icul u al ac i i ies
and yield p oduc ion, addi ional abs ac ions will be needed, o he lows pa hs a e be e
con olled, o 𝑊𝑠𝑋 alues a e be e adjus ed.

112
Co espondingly, supplying addi ional esou ces in o de o main ain he same yield p oduc ion
in spi e o he clima e change impac s, i i was possible, would esul in possible nega i e impac s
in ela ion o he basin’s sus ainabili y. Howe e , his does no appea in 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s
because his le el o Se iciency does no e lec he WUS’s impac on he main sou ce. This is
𝑀𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑆𝐸’s job.
7.2. Recommenda ions o Fu u e Wo ks
As we conside his wo k as a link in he chain o knowledge in his ield a he han a disc e e
piece, he conclusions ha we came ac oss highligh a numbe o u u e wo ks ha can u he
complemen ou e o s. To begin wi h, he ollowing poin s explain he a eas in which we
s uggled and wha can be done o mi iga e ha :
1. Ag icul u al Da a in Pales ine
We selec ed 2010/2011 season in pa icula because i is he mos ecen season o
which he Pales inian o icial sou ces p o ide a comple e da a se ha i s he pu pose o
his s udy. As we eached he yea 2020, a lack o ag icul u al da a is clea ly e iden in
he di e en Pales inian sou ces. A he same ime as we acknowledge he g ea e o s
o he Pales inian Cen al Bu eau o S a is ics, he Pales inian Wa e Au ho i y, and he
Minis y o Ag icul u e, we can s a e ha he need o addi ional da a collec ed om he
ield signi ican ly su passes hese e o s.
2. Wa e Quali y Weigh s
As explained in sec ion 3.3, he e a e se e al me hods o quan i y o sco e wa e quali y.
Besides, we ound in his s udy how signi ican can he in luence o wa e quali y weigh s
be on 𝑀𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑆𝐸𝑠 esul s (e.g. SC1 scena io esul s). The applica ion o he p e iously
explained wa e quali y sco ing me hod would equi e a lo o ield quali y es s based on
he adop ed me hod. Un o una ely, he unding alloca ed o his esea ch is well below
he capaci y o pe o m such es s, and hus we would highly ecommend u he
in es iga ions in his domain.
113
3. Public Pa icipa ion
Since anspa ency is he co e bene i o adop ing Se iciency as a mindse besides being
an e iciency assessmen me hod, public pa icipa ion is a key elemen in i s applica ion.
We a emp ed o each as many as 40 a me s a e spending a lo o ime and e o in
o de o achie e a ep esen able sample o a me s. Ye , he e is oom o expand his
esea ch o include mo e a me s and o he wo ke s in he ield o ag icul u e. Simila ly,
we managed o in e iew he Di ec o -Gene al o Wa e Resou ces Managemen a he
PWA a e a long coo dina ion p ocess, ne e heless, u u e wo ks can include addi ional
decision-make s, legisla o s, wa e esou ces manage s a he local, na ional, and
egional le els.
On a di e en no e, any unde es ima ion o he abs ac ed olumes om EAB, which is a likely
si ua ion in ou s udy a ea, would ha e a i id impac on he Se iciency esul s and he o e all
unde s anding o he wa e use sys em. Na ional collec i e e o s should in ol e he go e nmen al
decision-make s, nongo e nmen al o ganisa ions, esea che s and esea ch cen es, and he
ci ic communi y membe s in o de o ackle he un epo ed abs ac ions issue. We ecommend
ha ing hese e o s aiming o aise awa eness among a me s, imp o e he echnological
in as uc u e, and enhance public pa icipa ion in he decision-making p ocess would be a wo hy
in es men .
The esul s o ou clima e change scena io analysis ha e highligh ed he po en ial inc ease in he
gap be ween abs ac ions, e apo anspi a ion and p ecipi a ion a es unde he an icipa ed
clima ic changes in he egion. Fu he mo e, du ing ou in e iew, Eng. Abdulgha ou had
s essed, mo e han once, abou he nega i e consequences o he ongoing o e -pumping
p ac ices and he ecen ly expe ienced low eplenishmen a es due o dec eased p ecipi a ion
a es. The e o e add essing he Eas e n Aqui e Basin’s sus ainabili y h ough analysing he
ele an wa e use sys em(s) on he mac o le el is ex emely needed. We ha e ocused his s udy
only on he ag icul u al sec o in Je icho, which is, by a , he la ges use sec o among he
Eas e n Aqui e Basin’s use s. Ne e heless, we would ecommend a wide analysis ha
encompasses he di e en wa e ins ances ha a e lowing in and ou o EAB, in addi ion o i s
wa e le el a he beginning o he analysis pe iod (VU) and a he end o i (VD), in o de o
pe o m mac o-le el Se iciency analysis. Such analysis would enable he ele an s akeholde s
and decision-make s o ouch he poin s whe e ac ions a e needed.
114
In conclusion, Se iciency champions anspa ency. A wa e balance-based assessmen app oach
is undamen al o each a ho ough unde s anding o he sys em’s na u e and conclusion abou
i s pe o mance. Addi ionally, he ac i e pa icipa ion o all s akeholde s in ol ed wi hin he WUS’s
bounda ies, which cons uc s a clea de ini ion o wa e use objec i es, enhances he
sus ainabili y o ou a ailable esou ces. Join manage ial e o s o assess he pe o mance and
impac o he egional wa e use sys ems on EAB a e c ucially impo an in o de o ad ance i s
sus ainable pe o mance.
115
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SCIENTIFIC OUTPUT
1. Tuqan, N.; Haie, N.; Ahmad, M.T. Assessmen o he Ag icul u al Wa e Use in Je icho
Go e no a e Using Se iciency. Sus ainabili y 2020, 12, 3634.
Link (open access): h ps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3634
2. Ahmad, M.T., Haie, N., Yen, H. and Tuqan, N.A.S. (2018) Se iciency o a Wa e Use Sys em:
The Case o Kano Ri e I iga ion P ojec , Nige ia. In e na ional Jou nal o Ci il Enginee ing
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3. Tuqan, N.; Haie, N. Clima e Change Impac s on Se iciency o he Ag icul u al Wa e Use in
Je icho Go e no a e (unde p epa a ion).