UNIO - EU Law Jou nal. Vol. 4, No. 1, Janua y 2018, pp 3-15.
®2018 Cen e o S udies in Eu opean Union Law
School o Law – Uni e si y o Minho
The Eu opean Union’s exis en ial c isis: cu en
challenges om populism o Donald T ump*
Ri a de Sousa Cos a1
Tiago Sé gio Cab al2
ABSTRACT: 2016 was ma ked by he ise o populism and isola ionism a ound he wo ld. The
Eu opean Union is losing a Membe S a e o he i s ime, a e he B i ish o ed o lea e in hei
“B exi ” e e endum. Ac oss he A lan ic, Donald T ump was elec ed P esiden o he Uni ed
S a es, causing conce n amongs Eu opean leade s. In he emaining Membe S a es, populis and
Eu oscep ic poli ical o ces a e becoming mo e ele an , u he endange ing he in eg i y o he
Eu opean Union. In his pape , we analyse he mo i es behind he Eu opean Union’s “exis en ial
c isis”, which is a guably, one o he mos signi ican challenges he EU will ace in i s nea u u e.
We conclude ha he Eu opean Union mus e o m in o de o egain hei ci izens’ us and
ein o ce democ acy.
KEYWORDS: Eu opean Union – T ump – B exi – populism – inancial C isis – Eu opean
in eg a ion.
* This pape is a ansla ion o ou awa d-winning submission o he “P o esso Paulo de Pi a e
Cunha 2017 Awa d” es ablished by he Eu opean Ins i u e o he Uni e si y o Lisbon’s Facul y o
Law. No signi ican changes we e made o he con en o o he posi ions de ended in he o iginal.
Howe e , o a oid he unpleasan eading expe ience ha would a ise om a li e al ansla ion
se e al linguis ic adap a ions we e implemen ed. The Po uguese o iginal is a ailable a : h ps://
ins i u oeu opeu.eu/images/s o ies/documen os/P %C3%A9mio_P o esso _Dou o _Paulo_
de_Pi a_e_Cunha/A_C ise_Exis encial_da_Uni%C3%A3o_Eu opeia.pd . A sho upda e o i s
con en co e ing he a e ma h o he Du ch gene al elec ion, F ench p esiden ial elec ion, Ge man
ede al elec ion, Aus ian legisla i e elec ion, and Czech pa liamen a y elec ion is a ailable a : h ps://
o icialblogo unio.com/2017/11/07/ ose- in ed-glasses-migh -p o e- a al-populis s-and- hei -
pe o mances-a e - he-2017-du ch-gene al-elec ion/.
1 Resea che a Cen e o S udies in Eu opean Union Law. Email: [email p o ec ed].
2 Resea che a Cen e o S udies in Eu opean Union Law. Co esponding au ho . Email: c@
iagose giocab al.com
® UNIO - EU LAW JOURNAL Vol. 4, No. 1, Janua y 2018
4Ri a de Sousa Cos a & Tiago Sé gio Cab al
1. A Union in c isis: he las yea s o Eu opean poli ics
The Eu opean Union (he eina e , EU) is expe iencing imes o g ea unce ain y.
The 2008 inancial c isis empo a ily damaged he Eu opean economy bu , mo e han
ha , i may ha e pe manen ly hu i s spi i . The economic eco e y – a a slowe pace
in he pe iphe y coun ies – did no hing o mend he spi i ual damage. E en be o e
he inancial c isis, o he e en s s a ed he EU’s “exis en ial c isis”,3 like he ailu e o
he Eu opean Cons i u ion due o i s ejec ion in he F ench and Du ch e e endums.
Recen ly, he e ugee c isis and a ple ho a o e o is a acks u he complica ed he
si ua ion. Mo eo e , he EU is losing a Membe S a e o he i s ime in i s his o y and
may ace hos ili y om he cu en Ame ican adminis a ion.
The pe iphe y coun ies we e pa icula ly a aged by he e ec s o he inancial
c isis. The de oga o y designa ion o “P.I.G.S” was a ibu ed o he mos a ec ed
S a es (Po ugal, I eland, G eece and Spain). Among hose, he G eek si ua ion was
pa icula ly se ious. Economic adjus men p og ammes had o be implemen ed
when he se e e inc ease in he sp ead o go e nmen bonds made hese coun ies
unable o secu e inancing in he in e na ional ma ke s. The Po uguese economic
adjus men p og amme, he “Memo andum o Unde s anding on Speci ic Economic
Policy Condi ionali y”,4 whose signa o ies we e Po ugal, he Eu opean Commission
(EC), he In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF) and he Eu opean Cen al Bank (ECB)
equi ed deep s uc u al e o ms. Some o hese e o ms we e success ul like he
lexibiliza ion o he public sec o , while o he s ailed ca as ophically and con ibu ed
o he depopula ion o he coun y’s in e io and o igina ed mo e social and economic
inequali y. 16,2% o he wo k o ce was unemployed in 2013.5 The emig a ion o
highly quali ied young p o essionals, who could easily ind ab oad he p o essional
oppo uni ies ha Po ugal was no able o p o ide, became a p essing issue o he
coun y. Po uguese ci izens became ou aged by he successi e downg ades o he
c edi anking o he na ional deb . When i ell o specula i e-g ade o “junk s a us”
a g oup o Po uguese hacke s hacked he Moody’s websi e6 and a ideo was p epa ed
o explain o he a ing agencies and o he Uni ed S a es P esiden Ba ack Obama why
“Po ugal is no junk”.7 In he academy, a ques ion a ose: “Is aus e i y he cu e… o
he disease?”.8
In he EU, he sou he n coun ies we e sa i ised as poo and lazy in con as wi h
he ha d-wo king and ich no he n coun ies.9 The alues o Eu opean loyal y and
3 The “diagnosis” comes om he P esiden o he Eu opean Commission Jean-Claude Juncke
himsel , in his 2016 S a e o he Union Add ess. See “Speech: S a e o he Union Add ess 2016:
Towa ds a be e Eu ope – a Eu ope ha p o ec s, empowe s and de ends”, Eu opean Commission,
accessed Ma 1, 2017, h p://eu opa.eu/ apid/p ess- elease_SPEECH-16-3043_en.h m.
4 See “Memo andum o Unde s anding on Speci ic Economic Policy Condi ionali y”, Eu opean
Commission, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h p://ec.eu opa.eu/economy_ inance/eu_bo owe /
mou/2011-05-18-mou-po ugal_en.pd .
5 See “Unemploymen a e: o al and by sex (%)”, Po da a, accessed Ma . 3, 2017, h p://www.po da a.
p /en/Po ugal/Unemploymen + a e+ o al+and+by+sex+(pe cen age)-550.
6 See João Ped o Pe ei a, “‘Cidadãos po ugueses’ usam si e da Moody’s pa a mensagem p o oca ó ia”,
Público, July 7 2011, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://www.publico.p /2011/07/07/economia/no icia/
cidadaos-po ugueses-usam-si e-da-moodys-pa a-mensagem-p o oca o ia-1501890.
7 See “Po ugal não é lixo”, Una ibu ed Au ho , accessed Ma 3, 2017, h ps://www.you ube.com/
wa ch? =1aZ1ZyGRjiM, accessed 3 Ma 2017.
8 See Edua do Paz Fe ei a, A Aus e idade Cu a... A Aus e idade Ma a?(Lisboa: AAFDL, 2016).
9 See Edua do Paz Fe ei a, “Endi idamen o e Sobe ania Nacional”, in A C ise e o Di ei o, eds. Jo ge
Bacela Gou eia e Nuno Piça a (Coimb a: Almedina, 2013), 121-135.
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Ri a de Sousa Cos a & Tiago Sé gio Cab al
5
solida i y became seconda y in he ace o economic ha dships. The ee mo emen o
pe sons, goods, se ices and capi al ( ou undamen al eedoms) a e a he e y co e
o he EU’s spi i and a e ensh ined in bo h he T ea y on Eu opean Union (TEU) and
he T ea y on he Func ioning o he Eu opean Union (TFEU). Howe e , an i-EU
o ces in he no he n coun ies cul i a ed he idea ha he ci izens o he sou he n and
eas e n coun ies would “s eal hei jobs”. A new wa e o na ionalism and populism
eme ged mas e ully using he EU and he o he Membe S a es as scapegoa s o
na ional issues. In he “poo ” coun ies, he EU was he “enemy” because o he
aus e i y measu es i had o ced on hem. On he o he hand, in he “ ich” coun ies,
he EU was he “enemy” because i allowed he immig an s om he “poo ” coun ies
o en e un es ic ed.
The “ eg essi e endency”10 in he mos ecen case law o he Cou o Jus ice
o he Eu opean Union (CJEU) e lec s he unce ain y o he imes. The CJEU’s
decisions in Dano o Alimano ic appea o be a s ep back om Ma inez Sala, G zelczyk
and Zamb ano,11 whe e Eu opean Ci izenship is conce ned.
The e is also a hea ed deba e be ween Eu oscep ics and in eg a ionis s ega ding
he exis ence o a democ a ic de ici in he EU. Nigel Fa age equen ly accused he EU
o being undemoc a ic in he campaign o he e e endum in he Uni ed Kingdom
(UK). When discussing his issue, he mos a id in eg a ionis s usually in oke a seemingly
i ep oachable o mal a gumen : he MPEs a e elec ed o he Eu opean Pa liamen by
di ec uni e sal su age (A . 14, 3, TEU). Second, bo h he Eu opean Council and
he Council o he Eu opean Union a e elec ed in hei Membe S a es [A s. 15(2)
and 16(2) TUE] and he P esiden o he Eu opean Commission is p oposed by he
Eu opean Council “ aking in o accoun he elec ions o he Eu opean Pa liamen and a e ha ing
held he app op ia e consul a ions” and is “elec ed” in he Eu opean Pa liamen “by a majo i y o
i s componen membe s” [A . 17(7), TEU]. In heo y, he a gumen is lawless. In p ac ice,
i is deeply lawed. The ac is ha he e is only one ue Eu opean elec ion, and om
ha elec ion, ou “democ a ic” ins i u ions ma e ialise. These ins i u ions ha e he
monopoly on he legisla i e and execu i e powe in he EU. By compa ison, in he US,
a a ede al le el, he e a e sepa a e elec ions o bo h houses o Cong ess and o he
P esiden o he Uni ed S a es. We belie e ha he Commission would g ea ly bene i
om he addi ional legi imacy o a P esiden ha is di ec ly elec ed by he ci izens,
like his Ame ican coun e pa .12 We should also keep in mind ha he in luence o he
Eu opean Council may go beyond wha is ensh ined in he A icle 15, 1, TEU.13
10 See J. N. Cunha Rod igues, “As Comunidades de 1986 e a União de 2016”, in União
Eu opeia: Re o ma ou Declínio?, ed. Edua do Paz Fe ei a (Lisboa: Vega, 2016), 19-
33; Alessand a Sil ei a, “Cidadania Social na União Eu opeia – quo adis? A anços e
ecuos en e o ças de coesão e agmen ação”, in União Eu opeia: Re o ma…, 293-310.
11 See Judgmen o 11 No . 2014, Dano, C-333/13, ECLI:EU:C:2014:2358; Judgmen o 15 Sep.
2015, Alimano ic, C-67/14, ECLI:EU:C:2015:597; Judgmen o 12 May 1998, Ma inez Sala, C-85/96,
ECLI:EU:C:1998:217; Judgmen o 20 Sep. 2001, G zelczyk, C-184/99, ECLI:EU:C:2001:458; Judgmen
o 8 Ma . 2011, Zamb ano, C-34/09, ECLI:EU:C:2011:124.
12 In he 2015 Riga summi , Juncke g ee ed he Hunga ian P ime Minis e Vik o O bán wi h a good-
humou ed “Hello, dic a o ”. E en i one dislikes O bán’s policies, i is s ill an i onic si ua ion: Juncke
who is no di ec ly elec ed by he ci izens labelling O bán as a dic a o . See “‘Hello, dic a o ’: Eu opean
commission p esiden jokes wi h Hunga ian PM”, The Gua dian, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://
www. hegua dian.com/wo ld/ ideo/2015/may/22/hello-dic a o -eu opean-commission-p esiden -
juncke -jokes-hunga ian-o ban- ideo.
13 See Paulo de Pi a e Cunha, “Comen á io ao a .º 13.º”, in T a ado de Lisboa: Ano ado e Comen ado, eds.
Manual Lopes Po o and Gonçalo Anas ácio (Coimb a: Almedina, 2012),63-65.
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6Ri a de Sousa Cos a & Tiago Sé gio Cab al
On 16 Feb ua y, 2017, wo highly ele an esolu ions14 we e app o ed by he
Eu opean Pa liamen . The i s , d a ed by he MEPs Elma B ok (PPE) and Me cedes
B esso (S&D),15 p oposes he ans o ma ion o he Council o he Eu opean Union
in a “second legisla i e chambe ” (poin 29) and a mo e equen use o he “passe elle ule”
[A . 48(7) TEU]. We could go u he han his esolu ion and eplace he Council
o he Eu opean Union wi h a Sena e elec ed by di ec uni e sal su age. Cu en ly,
he Council o he Eu opean Union consis s “o a ep esen a i e o each Membe S a e a
minis e ial le el”. This scena io aises wo e y se ious issues: i) he as majo i y o he
o e s elec hose ep esen a i es o he na ional go e nmen wi hou e en knowing
ha hey a e also elec ing hem o he Council o he Eu opean Union. This is o be
expec ed since na ional issues a e a mo e p essing conce n in he minds o he o e s,
hus he ocus o mos na ional poli ical campaigns. Howe e , one could a gue ha he
ep esen a i es’ democ a ic legi imacy in he EU is weakened since democ acy should
e lec “ he will o he people”. Fu he mo e, e en i he o e is aking in o conside a ion
he elec ion o he Council o he Eu opean Union, he me hod is undemoc a ic by
design. A candida e may be an excellen pick o inance minis e bu he o e may
ind him a poo nego ia o ha should no ep esen he coun y in he Council o he
Eu opean Union. This pu s he o e in a “no win” si ua ion, since he may ei he ha e
an excellen inance minis e o an excellen nego ia o , ne e bo h, because hey a e
o ed as a package. In Membe S a es whe e he go e nmen has no legisla i e powe s,
o has i s legisla i e powe es ic ed he issue is e en mo e complica ed. I does no
seem easonable o he EU o gi e he na ional ep esen a i es legisla i e powe s when
hey do no ha e hem in hei own coun ies. I migh e en endange he sepa a ion o
powe s in hose Membe S a es. A p ope Sena e would also con ibu e o he p oximi y
be ween he o e and i s elec ed ep esen a i e in he EU. The second esolu ion,
d a ed by he MPE Guy Ve ho s ad (ADLE),16 p oposes a s uc u al e o m17 om
whe e we would highligh : ii) he a ibu ion o he igh o legisla i e ini ia i e o he
Eu opean Pa liamen (poin 62); ending “Eu ope à la ca e” (poin s 6 h ough 12); iii)
he “unde aking [o ] a comp ehensi e, in-dep h e iew o he Lisbon T ea y”.
The Whi e Pape on he u u e o Eu ope published by he Eu opean Commission
on 1 Ma ch, 2017, o ming he Commission’s con ibu ion o he Rome Summi o 25
Ma ch 2017, lis s i e possible scena ios o main aining he Uni y o “ he EU a 27”.18
The possible scena ios o he e olu ion o he EU un il 2025 pe he Commission a e:
i) “ca ying on” – his scena io basically main ains he s a us quo; ii) “no hing bu he single
ma ke ” – he mos Eu oscep ic solu ion which keeps he single ma ke and emo es
e e y hing else; iii) “ hose who wan mo e do mo e” – he mul i-speed Eu ope scena io: he
14 E en i due o hei na u e, he esolu ions o he Eu opean Pa liamen ha e limi ed impo ance.
15 See “Eu opean Pa liamen esolu ion o 16 Feb ua y 2017 on imp o ing he unc ioning o he
Eu opean Union building on he po en ial o he Lisbon T ea y (2014/2249(INI))”, Eu opean
Pa liamen , accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h p://www.eu opa l.eu opa.eu/sides/ge Doc.do? ype=TA&lan
guage=EN& e e ence=P8-TA-2017-0049.
16 See “Eu opean Pa liamen esolu ion o 16 Feb ua y 2017 on possible e olu ions o and
adjus men s o he cu en ins i u ional se -up o he Eu opean Union (2014/2248(INI))”, Eu opean
Pa liamen , accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h p://www.eu opa l.eu opa.eu/sides/ge Doc.do?pubRe =-//
EP//TEXT+TA+P8-TA-2017-0048+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN.
17 The implemen a ion o some o he p oposals in he esolu ion would equi e amendmen s in he
TEU and TFEU.
18 See “Commission p esen s Whi e Pape on he u u e o Eu ope: A enues o uni y o he EU
a 27”, Eu opean Commission, accessed Ma . 1, 2017, h p://eu opa.eu/ apid/p ess- elease_IP-17-
385_en.h m.
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Ri a de Sousa Cos a & Tiago Sé gio Cab al
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Membe S a es may in eg a e a hei own pace;19 i ) “doing less mo e e icien ly” – he EU
in e enes less bu in a mo e e ec i e and uni ed manne ; ) “doing much mo e oge he ” –
u he in eg a ion and a mo e in e en i e EU. All he Membe S a es commi equally.
The lack o subs ance in he “Whi e Pape ” is uly disappoin ing. The Commission lis s
he possible scena ios o he u u e ha we e al eady known o he public, o e ing no
con ibu ion o new pa h o he EU’s de elopmen .
2. 2016 in wo chap e s
Two e en s in he yea o 2016 changed he Wo ld’s poli ical landscape: “Lea e’s”
ic o y in he “Uni ed Kingdom Eu opean Union membe ship e e endum” and Donald
T ump’s ic o y in he Uni ed S a es P esiden ial Elec ion. Usually, he discussion o
hese e en s ocused on inding ou “how” and “how much” hese e en s will change he
s a us quo. Howe e , one should no o ge ha hese e en s al eady changed he s a us
quo and a e hemsel es, a e lec ion o p e ious changes in ou wo ld. The e o e, i
is o ex eme impo ance ha we i s unde s and he pas and p esen i we wish o
p edic he u u e.
2.1. Chap e I: un il he e e endum ea s us apa
On 23 June 2016, a poli ical ea hquake wi h i s epicen e in he UK hi he EU.
Agains all p edic ions, he B i ish people o ed o lea e he EU. “Lea e’s” ic o y in
he e e endum was no o e whelming (51.9% agains 48.1%) bu i was con incing.
The high u nou (72.2%) assu ed ha he e is no oom o ques ion he democ a ic
legi imacy o he e e endum.
A he beginning o he nigh , p ac ically no one was expec ing such a esul . Exi
polls ga e a 4% lead o “ emain” and Nigel Fa age conceded de ea .20 Howe e , a ew
disappoin ing esul s in adi ionally eu o-en husias ic pa s o he coun y and a high
u nou in mo e conse a i e ones quickly u ned he ide in b exi ’s a ou .
The e e endum’s esul s b oke he UK in wo. Sco land and No he n I eland
o ed “ emain” by wide ma gins whe eas Wales and England o ed “lea e”.21 In he
a e ma h, he P ime Minis e Da id Came on esigned. Came on had called he
e e endum as a poli ical mo e o ensu e his e-elec ion, bu he did no expec o lose
i . A pe i ion signed by mo e han 4 million people eques ed a second e e endum
on he ma e bu was quickly ejec ed by he new cabine , led by The esa May.22 A
decision by he Sup eme Cou o he Uni ed Kingdom23 equi ing he go e nmen
19 Ge many, F ance, I aly and Spain exp essed hei p e e ence o his solu ion. See Edoua d P limlin,
“Somme de Ve sailles: pou une UE à plusieu s i esses”. Le Monde, Ma ch 7, 2017, accessed Ma
7, 2017, h p://www.lemonde. /eu ope/a icle/2017/03/07/somme -de- e sailles-pou -une-ue-a-
plusieu s- i esses_5090248_3214.h ml# bma7QBj0EG BX1z.99.
20 See “YouGo poll pu s Remain ahead wi h 52%”, Financial Times, accessed Feb. 25, 2017, h ps://
www. .com/con en /d5e 0b36-c642-3 23-8e40-b13903 73815.
21 See Tim Oli e , “The wo ld a e B exi : F om B i ish e e endum o global ad en u e”, In e na ional Poli ics
53,6 (2016): 689-707.
22 See “EU Re e endum: Resul s”, BBC News, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h p://www.bbc.com/news/
poli ics/eu_ e e endum/ esul s; Nicola Ha ley, “B exi : Go e nmen ejec s pe i ion signed by
4 million calling o second EU e e endum”, The Teleg aph, Jul 09, 2016, accessed Ma . 2, 2017,
h p://www. eleg aph.co.uk/news/2016/07/09/b exi -go e nmen - ejec s-pe i ion- o -second-
e e endum; Rishi Iyenga , “B i ain’s Da id Came on Resigns A e Vo e o Lea e E.U.”, Jun. 24,
2016, accessed Ma . 1, 2017, h p:// ime.com/4381193/da id-came on- esigns-b exi - o e.
23 See R (on he applica ion o Mille and Dos San os) . Sec e a y o S a e o Exi ing he Eu opean
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8Ri a de Sousa Cos a & Tiago Sé gio Cab al
o ge pa liamen a y app o al be o e igge ing A icle 50 o he TEU caused u he
disag eemen s in UK’s public opinion.24 Some suppo e s o B exi we e u ious wi h
he decision, e en calling he judges “enemies o he people”.25 Following he Cou ’s
decision, he House o Commons app o ed he Eu opean Union (No i ica ion o
Wi hd awal) Bill quickly and by a wide majo i y. The bill was me wi h g ea e opposi ion
in he House o Lo ds, whe e i was amended o gi e Pa liamen a “meaning ul o e” on
he inal deal be ween he EU and he UK and o ensu e he p o ec ion o he igh s
o he h ee million EU ci izens li ing in he UK.26 In a s oke o legisla i e i ony,
he unelec ed House o Lo ds seems adaman in p o ec ing pa liamen a y so e eign y
while he House o Commons p omp ly ga e he go e nmen absolu e powe . In he
end, he Lo ds will p obably elen bu he amendmen s migh igge a “pa liamen a y
ping-pong” be ween he Houses and delay he go e nmen ’s plan o igge A icle 50 by
he end o Ma ch 2017.
E en i i is no in he go e nmen ’s designa ed ime ame, hese in e nal s uggles
will be o e come. A e ha , he UK and he EU mus nego ia e he e ms o hei
sepa a ion. I may be an “amicable di o ce” whe e he economic and social e ec s o
he UK lea ing a e educed by i joining he Eu opean Economic A ea (EEA). On he
opposi e end o he spec um, he e is he op ion o a ha d B exi wi h no ade deal
be ween he UK and he EU. The UK and he EU would engage in ading acco ding
o he ules o he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO). In be ween hese scena ios, in
abs ac , we could also ha e he “Swiss Model” (EFTA bu no EEE), he “Tu kish
Model” (Cus oms Union) and he op ion o building a comple ely new ade deal.27
A he ime o w i ing, he unwillingness o bo h pa ies o comp omise on he issue
o ee mo emen o pe sons poin s o a ha d B exi . Ne e heless, since nego ia ions
ha e no begun, i is no possible o p edic wi h any deg ee o ce ain y.28
The UK always iewed Eu opean in eg a ion wi h a ce ain deg ee o scep icism.29
Union and associa ed e e ences, Sup eme Cou o he Uni ed Kingdom, 2017.
24 See “B exi , The Sup eme Cou (UK) and he p inciple o loyal y: on he ques ion o i e ocabili y
o a wi hd awal no ice”, Alessand a Sil ei a, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://o icialblogo unio.
com/2017/01/26/b exi - he-sup eme-cou -uk-and- he-p inciple-o -loyal y-on- he-ques ion-o -
i e ocabili y-o -a-wi hd awal-no ice; “R (Mille ) The Sec e a y o S a e o Exi ing he Eu opean
Union [2016] EWHC 2768 (Admin): Realpoli ik and he Re oca ion o an A icle 50 TEU No i ica ion
o Wi hd aw”, John Co e , accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://o icialblogo unio.com/2016/12/02/ -
mille - - he-sec e a y-o -s a e- o -exi ing- he-eu opean-union-2016-ewhc-2768-admin- ealpoli ik-and-
he- e oca ion-o -an-a icle-50- eu-no i ica ion- o-wi hd aw.
25 See Clai e Phipps, “B i ish newspape s eac o judges’ B exi uling: ‘Enemies o he people’”,
The Gua dian, No . 4, 2016, accessed Ma . 1, 2017, h ps://www. hegua dian.com/poli ics/2016/
no /04/enemies-o - he-people-b i ish-newspape s- eac -judges-b exi - uling.
26 See “Eu opean Union (No i ica ion o Wi hd awal) Bill 2016-17: P og ess o he Bill”,
UK Pa liamen , accessed Ma ch 1, 2017, h p://se ices.pa liamen .uk/bills/2016-17/
eu opeanunionno i ica iono wi hd awal.h ml.
27 See M. Hachula e al, Unce ain y a e he B exi o e: Economic e ec s and legal aspec s (B ussels: Eu opean
Pa liamen , 2016), accessed Ma . 1, 2017, h ps://polcms.secu e.eu opa l.eu opa.eu/cmsda a/
upload/cab9 86d-9888-40e6-b2c9-b6418c699 e4/DIW.pd .
28 See C. Ba na d, “The o e s ha e spoken. B exi i is”, UNIO EU Law Jou nal – The O icial Blog:
Thinking & Deba ing Eu ope, Ago. 4, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://o icialblogo unio.
com/2016/08/04/ he- o e s-ha e-spoken-b exi -i -is/. C. Ba na d, A. Ludlow, “F ee Mo emen o
Se ices, Mig a ion and Lea ing he EU”, Na ional Ins i u e Economic Re iew, 236, 1 (2016): 23-30. V.
Bogdano , “B exi , he Cons i u ion and he Al e na i es”, King’s Law Jou nal, 27, 3 (2016): 314-322.
29 See C. Gi o d, “The Uni ed Kingdom’s Eu oscep ic poli ical economy”, The B i ish Jou nal o Poli ics
and In e na ional Rela ions, 18, 4 (2016): 779-794. A. Glenc oss, Why he UK Vo ed o B exi : Da id
Came on’s G ea Miscalcula ion, (Bi mingham: Palg a e Macmillan, 2016). S. Hobol , “The B exi o e: a
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9
Se e al excep ions had o be buil in he Eu opean legal amewo k o accommoda e
he UK’s demands. I is no pa o he Eu ozone and o he Schengen A ea. B i ish
scep icism migh no be scep icism o jus he EU bu also, o Eu opeans in gene al and
o immig a ion.30 Wi hou i , he EU may ind i easie o achie e u he in eg a ion.
Bu only i i can o e come i s “exis en ial c isis”, caused by he populis wa e ha has
swep ac oss he EU.31
Lea ing he bigges ade bloc in he wo ld will su ely ha e economic consequences.
Since he e e endum, he B i ish Pound has been alling agains o he majo cu encies.
A he ime o w i ing, 1,00£ is wo h less han 1,20€ and 1,25$. Be o e he e e endum,
i was wo h 1,30€ and 1,47$. As o esul o Pound’s decline in alue, companies who
expo o he UK had o aise p ices. Mic oso ’s eadjus men o p ices may cos
millions o axpaye s.32 Unile e also aised Ma mi e’s p ices, causing dispu es be ween
he manu ac u e and some e aile s.33 One could a gue ha a weake Pound would
help expo s om he UK and hus, educe B exi ’s nega i e e ec s. While i may
happen in heo y, i s e ec will no p obably be enough o coun e balance he nega i e
e ec ha lea ing wi h no deal would ha e on he economy. In ha ega d, he ini ial
esis ance o he B i ish economy seems o be inally subsiding.34 Ne e heless, we
should wai o he o icial nego ia ions o begin and hen make he analysis o he
economic e ec s in bo h economies.35
Taking back con ol o B i ish laws migh no be immedia ely possible. Eu opean
Legisla ion cons i u es a c ucial pa o he UK’s legal amewo k. The B i ish
go e nmen plans on “con e ing di ec ly e ec i e EU law in o UK law, and p ese ing seconda y
legisla ion enac ed unde he ECA”36 amending i in acco dance wi h he coun y’s needs
di ided na ion, a di ided con inen ”, Jou nal o Eu opean Public Policy, 23, 9 (2016): 1259-1277. T. Oli e ,
“Fi y Shades o B exi : B i ain’s EU Re e endum and i s Implica ions o Eu ope and B i ain”, The
In e na ional Spec a o – I alian Jou nal o In e na ional A ai s, Online i s , (2017): 1-11.
30 See M. F eeden, “Edi o ial. A e he B exi e e endum: e isi ing populism as an ideology”,
Jou nal o Poli ical Ideologies, 22, 1, (2017): pp.1-11. J. Ma i, Y. Zhou, “The poli ical economy o B exi :
explaining he o e”, Applied Economics Le e s, (2016): 1-4.
31 See R. F. Ingleha , P. No is, T ump, B exi , and he Rise o Populism: Economic Ha e-No s and Cul u al
Backlash, (Ha a d Kennedy School: Facul y Resea ch Wo king Pape Se ies, 2016). J. Cla ke, J.
Newman, “People in his coun y ha e had enough o expe s’: B exi and he pa adoxes o populism”,
C i ical Policy S udies, (2017), in p ess. T. Siczek, M. R. S eenbe gen, “Be e he de il you know? Risk-
aking, globaliza ion and populism in G ea B i ain”, Eu opean Union Poli ics, (2017), in p ess.
32 See J. Ti comb (2016). “Mic oso o aise p ices by up o 22pc a e slump in pound”, The Teleg aph,
Oc ., 23, 2016, accessed Feb., 27, 2017, h p://www. eleg aph.co.uk/business/2016/10/23/mic o-
so - o-li -p ices-up- o-22pc-o e - alling-pound/.
33 See “Mo isons aises Ma mi e p ice by 12.5%”, BBC News, Oc . 28, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017,
h p://www.bbc.com/news/business-37801847.
34 See K. Allen, P. Sc u on, “How has he B exi o e a ec ed he UK economy? Feb ua y e dic ”,
The Gua dian, Feb. 21, 2017, accessed Feb. 27, 2017. h ps://www. hegua dian.com/business/ng-
in e ac i e/2017/ eb/22/how-has- he-b exi - o e-a ec ed- he-uk-economy- eb ua y- e dic . K.
Allen, “B exi economy: in la ion su ge shows impac o o e inally beginning o bi e”, The Gua dian,
Dec. 21, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://www. hegua dian.com/business/2016/dec/21/b exi -
economy- e e endum-in la ion-uk-2017. “How has economy a ed since B exi o e?”, BBC, Jan. 17,
2017, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h p://www.bbc.com/news/business-36956418.
35 See D. Blagen, “B i ain and he wo ld a e B exi ”, In e na ional Poli ics, 54, 1 (2017): 1-25. M. Ebell,
J. Wa en, “The Long-Te m Economic Impac o Lea ing he EU”, Na ional Ins i u e Economic Re iew,
236, 1 (2016): 121-138. C. Ha welli, R. Ho a h, An assessmen o he impac o B exi on eu o a ea s abili y,
(B ussels: Eu opean Pa liamen , 2016), 7-22.
36 Ellio , Tie ney, “The “G ea Repeal Bill” and Delega ed Powe s”, Public Law o E e yone, Ma . 7,
2017, accessed Ma . 10, 2017, h ps://publiclaw o e e yone.com/2017/03/07/ he-g ea - epeal-bill-
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subsequen ly. This aises a e y di e en issue since “while i is ques ionable as o whe he o
no he e will e e be su icien ime o esou ces o unde ake an adequa e sc u iny, i seems ha he e
will be plen y o ime o MPs, businesses and in e es g oups o lobby o he selec i e amendmen o
epeal o pa icula laws”.37 Comme ce may su e e en mo e i he UK and EU’s legal
amewo k de ia e oo much. As an example, he UK may adop lowe ood sa e y,
consume p o ec ion o da a p o ec ion s anda ds.
The EU and i s Membe S a es shall also eel deeply he e ec s o B exi . The EU
will lose abou 5% o i s budge and he emaining Membe S a es migh ha e o make
up o i . The weake Pound may dec ease he pu chasing powe o B i ish ci izens,
hus ad e sely a ec ing coun ies ha expo o he UK. I he e is a ha d B exi , he
possible e-imposi ion o impo du ies migh u he complica e he si ua ion.
2.2. Chap e II: T ump comes, sees and conque s
In 2008, Ba ack Obama, a young and cha isma ic sena o om Illinois, achie ed
a su p ising ic o y o e he es ablishmen candida e in he Democ a ic Pa y P ima y
elec ions. Obama los he popula o e o Hilla y Clin on in he P ima y, bu he
Democ a ic Pa y uni ed a ound him and he was able o easily de ea John McCain
o become he 44 h P esiden o he Uni ed S a es. Obama is a b illian public speake
and his message o hope and he “Yes, We Can” slogan connec ed wi h he Ame ican
o e , allowing him o se e wo e ms in he Whi e House and lea e wi h an unusually
high app o al a ing.
In 2016, Donald J. T ump, a amous billionai e and eali y TV s a , eme ged
ic o ious om he Republican Pa y P ima y de ea ing mo e expe ienced candida es
like Jeb Bush, Ted C uz and Ma co Rubio. No unlike Obama, T ump’s message
connec ed wi h i s elec o a e who wished o “Make Ame ica G ea Again”.38 In he
and-delega ed-powe s/.
37 See Ca ha ine Macmillan, “The Impac o B exi upon English Con ac Law”, King’s Law Jou nal 27,3
(2016): 420-430.
38 T ump managed o su i e a ple ho a o poli ical “scandals” ha would ha e sunk mos poli ical
candida es. T ump was accused o sexism, acism, xenophobia, dis espec o he mili a y e e ans and
connec ions o he Russian go e nmen . Howe e , no only did he su i e, bu a guably h i ed because
o he con o e sy su ounding his campaign. In ac , 42% o women o ed o him, and his esul s wi h
A o-Ame ican / La ino o e s we e be e han Romney’s in 2012. His abili y in he poli ical a ena also
exceeded expec a ions. Jeb Bush, he ini ial a ou i e, spen 130 million dolla s in campaign bu did no win
any s a e and was se e ely damaged by he label o “no ene gy” cou esy o T ump. Simila ly, Ma co Rubio
became “Li le Ma co”, Ted C uz “Lyin’ Ted” and Hilla y Clin on “C ooked Hilla y”. T ump’s issues wi h
he mains eam media a e also widely known. A he ime o w i ing, he seems o be on he winning side
o hei dispu e, since he mos ecen polls say ha he public us s him mo e han he mains eam media.
Fu he mo e, hey may ha e in olun a ily helped in his elec ion. See Ronald F. Ingleha and Pippa No is,
“T ump, B exi , and he Rise o Populism: Economic Ha e-No s and Cul u al Backlash”, Ha a d Kennedy School:
Facul y Resea ch Wo king Pape Se ies (2016): 6; Ped o Madei a F ou e, “O insus en á el peso democ á ico
do populismo: deambulações em o no da União Eu opeia, de olhos pos os em Donald T ump”, in UNIO
E-book – Volume I: Wo kshops CEDU 2016, coo d. Alessand a Sil ei a (B aga: CEDU, 2017): 305-315.;
“Behind T ump’s ic o y: Di isions by ace, gende , educa ion”, Alec Tyson and Shi a Maniam, accessed
Feb. 27, 2017, h p://www.pew esea ch.o g/ ac - ank/2016/11/09/behind- umps- ic o y-di isions-
by- ace-gende -educa ion; “Clin on Couldn’ Win O e Whi e Women”, Cla e Malone, accessed Feb. 27,
2017, h ps:// i e hi yeigh .com/ ea u es/clin on-couldn -win-o e -whi e-women; Nicholas Con esso e
and Sa ah Cohen, “How Jeb Bush Spen $130 Million Running o P esiden Wi h No hing o Show o
I ”, New Yo k Times¸ Feb. 22, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://www.ny imes.com/2016/02/23/us/
poli ics/jeb-bush-campaign.h ml?_ =1; Paola Cha ez and Ve onica S acqualu si, “F om ‘C ooked Hilla y’
o ‘Li le Ma co,’ Donald T ump’s Many Nicknames”, ABC News, May 11, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017,
h p://abcnews.go.com/Poli ics/c ooked-hilla y-ma co-donald- umps-nicknames/s o y?id=39035114;
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Gene al Elec ion, T ump achie ed a su p ising ic o y o e Hilla y Clin on and hus,
became he 45 h P esiden o he Uni ed S a es. Like Bush in 2000, T ump won he
elec ion wi hou winning a majo i y o he popula o e.
T ump’s ic o y su p ised mos poli ical analys s who did no belie e ha he could
win he Republican P ima ies much less he P esiden ial Elec ion. The Hu ing on
Pos ’s Polls e ga e him a 1.7% p obabili y o winning. Na e Sil e ga e him 28.2%
and almos e e y o he mains eam analys ollowed in be ween.39 In ac , he unusually
high chances gi en o T ump by Na e Sil e p omp ed accusa ions ha he was swaying
he esul s o he polls in T ump’s a ou .40 In he end, nei he he Hu ing on Pos
no Sil e ’s “Fi eThi yEigh ” we e igh . Sil e p edic ed ha T ump’s pa h o ic o y
depended on ic o ies in Flo ida, Ne ada, No h-Ca olina, and New Hampshi e (all
unlikely). Howe e , T ump won in Wisconsin (“Fi eThi yEigh ” ga e him a 15,9%
p obabili y o winning he e), Michigan (19,7%) and Pennsyl ania (22,6%) and los
Ne ada and New Hampshi e.41 In he be ing ma ke s, he I ish company Paddy Powe
was so su e o Clin on’s ic o y ha i paid ea ly o hose who be ed on he .42
T ump won democ a ically bu why? This ques ion shall occupy poli ical analys s
o he nex ew yea s. The heo ies ega ding he T ump’s success a e nume ous
and con adic o y. We shall lis some: i) “Poli ical Co ec ness”, also known as he
“PC Cul u e”, wen oo a and hus a coun e cul u e eme ged and uni ed behind a
p agma ic businessman helping him seize ic o y;43 ii) he Republican Pa y su e ed a
coup by an ou side ; iii) he Russians in luenced he elec ions; i ) he o e s om he u al
communi ies el ha he mains eam poli icians a e disconnec ed om hei needs and
hus decided o elec an ou side ; ) he US popula ion is acis , sexis and xenophobic;
i) mino i ies o ed in in e io numbe s when compa ed o Obama’s elec ion, hus
gi ing an ad an age o he Republican Pa y; i) Hilla y Clin on was a lawed candida e
and was no able o b ing Be nie Sande s’ suppo e s o he side when i ma e ed; ii)
Wikileaks’ mail leaks helped T ump; iii) he FBI in es iga ion on Clin on’s usage o a
C is iano Lima, “Poll: T ump adminis a ion edges media in o e us ”, Feb. 17, 2017, accessed Feb
27, 2017, h p://www.poli ico.com/s o y/2017/02/ ump-media- us -poll- ox-news-235168; Julia R.
Aza i, “How he News Media Helped o Nomina e T ump. Poli ical Communica ion”, Poli ical Communica ion 33,
4 (2016): 677-680.
39 See “Polls-Plus Elec ion Fo ecas ”, Fi eThi yEigh , No . 8, 2016, accessed Feb. 23, 2017, h ps://
p ojec s. i e hi yeigh .com/2016-elec ion- o ecas /#plus.
40 See R. G im, “Na e Sil e Is Unskewing Polls — All o Them — In T ump’s Di ec ion”, Hu ing on
Pos , No . 05, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h p://www.hu ing onpos .com/en y/na e-sil e -
elec ion- o ecas _us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6 bc6 7 .
41 See “Polls-Plus Elec ion Fo ecas ”, Fi eThi yEigh , No . 8., 2016, accessed Feb. 23, 2017, h ps://
p ojec s. i e hi yeigh .com/2016-elec ion- o ecas /#plus.
42 See D. Doyle, “Paddy Powe ’s $1 Million Gamble Back i es as T ump Upse s Odds”, Bloombe g, No .
9, 2016, accessed Feb. 27, 2017, h ps://www.bloombe g.com/news/a icles/2016-11-09/paddy-
powe -s-1-million-gamble-back i es-as- ump-upse s-odds9/11/2016.
43 An in e es ing s o y abou T ump’s p agma ism comes om he imp obable o sou ces. In 2007,
Vince McMahon – he husband o he Adminis a o o he Small Business Adminis a ion Linda
McMahon – in i ed T ump o he bigges w es ling show on he wo ld: W es lemania. Be o e he
show, Vince asked T ump i we would allow he w es le “S one Cold S e e Aus in” o hi him wi h a
“S one Cold S unne ”, a w es ling mo e ha a ge s he neck. A e being assu ed ha i would deligh
he c owd, T ump p omp ly accep ed, igno ing he p o es s o his assis an . When eading his s o y
one should no o ge ha e en i w es ling is sc ip ed inju ies a e usual and se ious. Fu he mo e,
T ump was a sexagena ian and no a ained a hle e. See Tom Sheen, “‘OK, I’LL DO IT’ How
Donald T ump was con inced o ake a S one Cold S unne by WWE sup emo Vince McMahon”,
The Sun, Jan. 21, 2017, accessed Feb. 24, 2017, h ps://www. hesun.co.uk/spo /2670864/donald-
ump-s one-cold-s unne -w es lemania-wwe- ince-mcmahon/.
