A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in
Gaza. Quo Vadis?
El Eje de la Resis encia y la Gue a de Gaza.
Quo Vadis?
Ely Ka mon1
Reichman Uni e si y (Is ael)
Recibido: 13-04-2025
Acep ado: 03-05-2025
Abs ac
The a icle explo es I an's "Axis o Resis ance," a egional coali ion which
includes Sy ia, and he mili an adical g oups Hamas, Hezbollah, I aqi p o-
I anian mili ias and Yemen’s Hou his, aimed a he annihila ion o Is ael and
coun e ing U.S./Wes e n in luence in he Middle Eas . Fo med pos -1979 I anian
Re olu ion, i suppo ed Pales inian Islamis causes and egional de iance o
Ame ican p esence. The Oc obe 7, 2023, Hamas e o is massac e a ack on
Is ael, ollowed by Hezbollah, Hou hi and, o i s ime, di ec I anian missile
a acks on Is ael, and Is ael’s subsequen Gaza o ensi e and e alia ion agains
I an and i s p oxies, exposed he Axis’s ulne abili ies. The 2024 collapse o
Sy ia’s Basha al-Assad egime, Hezbollah’s weakening in Lebanon, Hamas’
mili a y demise, U.S and Wes e n challenge o Hou hi’s e o is a acks agains
he in e na ional ma i ime lanes in he Red Sea, dis up ed I an’s s a egy. On he
backd op o hei diminished posi ion, I an and i s p oxies ace now he p essu e
o P esiden T ump’s s a egy o change he egional dynamics, limi he impac
o he Axis’s in luence and achie e, by nego ia ion o mili a y p essu e, he
disman ling o I an’s nuclea p ojec .
Keywo ds: I an, Is ael, Sy ia, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hou his, U.S.
1 ([email p o ec ed]). Senio Resea che a The In e na ional Ins i u e o Coun e -Te o ism
(ICT) a Reichman Uni e si y, He zliya, Is ael, whe e he lec u es on in e na ional e o ism. Ea ned
his M.A. and Ph.D. in poli ical science om Hai a Uni e si y, Is ael. His seminal book Coali ions
be ween Te o is O ganiza ions: Re olu iona ies, Na ionalis s, and Islamis s was published by B ill
Academic Publishe s (2005). The Cen e o S a egic Leade ship, U.S. A my Wa College, published
his monog aph, I an–Sy ia-Hizballah–Hamas: A Coali ion agains Na u e. Why does i Wo k? (2008).
30 Ely Ka mon
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
Resumen
El a ículo explo a el "Eje de la Resis encia" de I án, una coalición
egional que incluye a Si ia y a los g upos adicales mili an es Hamás,
Hezbolá, las milicias p oi aníes i aquíes y los hu íes yemeníes, cuyo obje i o
es la aniquilación de Is ael y con a es a la in luencia es adounidense y
occiden al en O ien e Medio. Fo mada as la Re olución i aní de 1979, la
coalición apoyó las causas islamis as pales inas y el desa ío egional a la
p esencia es adounidense. El a aque e o is a masi o del 7 de oc ub e de
2023 pe pe ado po Hamás con a Is ael, seguido de a aques con misiles de
Hezbolá, los hu íes y, po p ime a ez, a aques di ec os de I án con a Is ael,
así como la pos e io o ensi a is aelí en Gaza y las ep esalias con a I án y
sus aliados, expusie on las ulne abilidades del Eje. El colapso del égimen
si io de Basha al-Assad en 2024, el debili amien o de Hezbolá en el Líbano,
la caída mili a de Hamás y la espues a de Es ados Unidos y Occiden e a los
a aques e o is as hu íes con a las u as ma í imas in e nacionales en el Ma
Rojo as oca on la es a egia de I án. An e el de e io o de su posición, I án y
sus aliados se en en an aho a a la p esión de la es a egia del p esiden e T ump
pa a cambia la dinámica egional, pa a limi a el impac o de la in luencia del
Eje y log a , median e negociación o p esión mili a , el desman elamien o del
p oyec o nuclea i aní.
Palab as-cla e: I án, Is ael, Si ia, Hamas, Hezbolá, Hu ís, Es ados Unidos
Backg ound
A he basis o wha is called oday The Axis o Resis ance, lies he T iple
Alliance be ween I an, Sy ia and Hezbollah. Hezbollah p oclaimed in 1991
ha “ he only i al and e ec i e axis in he egion is ha be ween Teh an and
Damascus. They a e he wo capi als which enjoy a deg ee o s eng h and
a measu e o independence ha allows hem o emain una ec ed by di ec
poli ical p essu e.2 The I an - Sy ia “axis,” an alliance “be ween he Lion and
he Tu ban” acco ding o Eh eshami and Hinnebusch, we e he emaining
cen e s o powe challenging he U.S. New Wo ld O de in he Middle Eas
in he a e ma h o I aq’s de ea in he i s Gul Wa , pu suing agendas “no
necessa ily o he liking o he dominan Wes e n wo ld powe s.”3
In 1982, ollowing he Is aeli in asion o Lebanon. Sy ia pe mi ed I an
o send abou a housand mili a y and eligious ins uc o s o he I anian
2 “Hezbollah Voice o he Opp essed ( adio s a ion),” 27 Ap il 1991.
3 Hinnebusch Raymond and Eh eshami Anoushi a an Eh eshami (eds.), The Fo eign Policies o
Middle Eas S a es, Boulde , London: Lynne Rienne Publishe s, 2002, p.1.
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“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
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Re olu iona y Gua ds Co ps (IRGC) o he Bekaa Valley in eas e n Lebanon.
The I anian o ce ec ui ed mili an s o Islamic Amal, a b eakaway ac ion
o he Lebanese Shia Amal mo emen , and se e al young, mili an Lebanese
cle ics a ilia ed wi h he Lebanese b anch o al-Da’wa, a adical I aqi
Shii e undamen alis g oup, o become he nucleus o a new mo emen , he
Hezbollah, he Pa y o God. Hezbollah’s leade ship emb aced I an Sup eme
Leade Aya ollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s concep o he jus ju isconsul (al-
wali al- aqih), he ideological basis o cle ical ule, ensh ined in I an’s 1979
cons i u ion. Hezbollah o mula ed i s doc ine in a documen o Feb ua y
1985, an “Open Le e ” add essed o “ he Down odden in Lebanon and in
he Wo ld,” which emphasizes he 1979 e olu ion in I an as an inspi a ion
o ac ion “capable, wi h God’s help, o b eaking he i on and opp ession o
y annical egimes.” The leade ship o Hezbollah pledged loyal y o Khomeini
and o he goal o es ablishing an Islamic s a e in Lebanon.4
Hezbollah became hus he hi d ib o The T iple Alliance.5
The demise o he Sy ian Basha al-Assad egime in Decembe 2024 and
he weakening o he Hezbollah g ip on he Lebanese s a e a e he Is aeli
mili a y in e en ion in Lebanon, ha e sha e ed he Axis o Resis ance basis
i sel and he I anian heoc a ic ule.
Hamas didn’ exis a ha ime as an o ganiza ion, bu he Pales inian
Libe a ion O ganiza ion (PLO), led by Yasse A a a , and he Pales inian cause,
we e a che ished elemen o Khomeini’s doc ine and s a egy. The in oduc ion
o Khomeini’s book Velaya -e Faqih Hokuma -e Eslami p esen ed he Jews as
he enemies o Islam. La e he would si ua e Is ael in he cen e o he ‘axis o
esis ance’ o he Islamic Republic.
Khomeini iewed he ela ionship wi h he PLO as a b idge be ween
e olu iona y I an and he A ab wo ld. This hope would be dashed, howe e ,
a e he Pales inian leade ship e used o adop he ‘gua dianship o he
ju is ’ p inciple and A a a ook a non-aligned s ance du ing he I an-I aq Wa
(1980–88). Howe e , he Pales inian issue con inued o be a cen al mo i in
his p oclama ions, as he Islamic Republic exploi ed he Pales inian s uggle
as a pla o m o achie e geos a egic successes ha se ed i s own in e es s.
In Augus 1979 Khomeini decla ed he las F iday o Ramadan, In e na ional
Quds (Je usalem) Day, in solida i y wi h he Pales inians.6
Khomeini iewed he ‘libe a ion o Pales ine’ as he i s necessa y s ep o
he uni ica ion o he Muslim umma and se his s uggle wi hin he b oade pan-
4 Mokh a i, Fa ibo z, “Coun e ing Te o ism: Could Hezbollah and Hamas Show he Way?”
Con empo a y Secu i y Policy, Vol. 27, No. 3, Decembe 2006, pp. 376–396.
5 Ka mon Ely, I an-Sy ia-Hizballah-Hamas: A Coali ion Agains Na u e: why Does i Wo k? The
P o eus Monog aph Se ies, Vol. 1, Issue 5, May 2008, Na ional In elligence Uni e si y, a h ps://
www.ic .o g.il/Use Files/ka mon-i an-sy ia-hizbollah.pd .
6 I zchako , Do on, “Aya ollah Khomeini’s App oach o he Pales inian-Is aeli Con lic and i s
Longs anding Rami ica ions,” ICT websi e, No embe 11, 2023.
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Islamic con ex . He sough o make he Islamic Republic he poli ical cen e o
Islam, unde he assump ion ha he commi men o Pales ine would g an him
he igh o lead he Muslim wo ld in i s s uggle o up oo Wes e n impe ialism
and i s local allies. Khomeini and his successo Aya ollah Ali Khamenei, made
e o s o gene a e suppo o he Pales inians o p omo e I an’s e olu iona y
egime o a le el o egional hegemony.7
Pa adoxically, i was he Fa ah o ganiza ion which ained Hezbollah and
IRGC mili an s in Lebanon, and la e in I an i sel . Du ing he 1970s, Fa ah
emb aced he I anian le is and cle ical e olu iona ies and p o ided expe ise,
aining, and connec ions wi h libe a ion igh e s om a ound he globe.8
Dis ancing i sel om he PLO, I an g adually s a ed o each ou o
o he , nascen , Pales inian g oups such as he Pales inian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
and Hamas. The 1993 Oslo Acco ds, and I an’s decision no o endo se hem,
p o ided a decisi e b eak wi h he PLO. Hamas became a key ally, since he
g oup ad oca ed o poli ical Islam and was opposed o a wo-s a e solu ion ha
could po en ially end he con lic . Indeed, he ailu es o Oslo se ed I anian
in e es s in so a as hey unde mined any eal p ospec s o peace and shi ed
he amewo k o esis ance, especially wi h he ise o Hezbollah bo h as a
angua d o an i-Is aeli esis ance and a s aunch I anian ally.9
The Axis comple ed by 2014/15
In a Mayadeen TV (Lebanon) in e iew, on Sep embe 24, 2014, I anian
analys Mohammad Sadeq Al-Hosseini, said: “We in he axis o esis ance a e
he new sul ans o he Medi e anean and he Gul . We in Teh an, Damascus,
[Hizbullah’s] sou he n subu b o Bei u , Baghdad, and Sanaa will shape he
map o he egion. We a e he new sul ans o he Red Sea as well.”10
In a Feb ua y 11, 2015, speech, IRGC Qods Fo ce commande Qassem
Soleimani said: “Today we a e seeing he signs o he expo o he Islamic
Re olu ion ac oss he egion, om Bah ain and I aq o Sy ia, Yemen, and
No h A ica.”11
7 Ibid.
8 A aie Mohammad, “How he Axis o Resis ance is shaping he Middle Eas ,” Middle Eas Eye,
Oc obe 24, 2024.
9 Alemzadeh Ma yam, “I an, Pales ine and he Axis o Resis ance,” Middle Eas Repo , 313
(Win e 2024), Middle Eas Resea ch and In o ma ion P ojec .
10 “I anian Analys Mohammad Sadeq Al-Hosseini: Saudi A abia Is on he Ve ge o Ex inc ion;
We A e he New Sul ans o he Medi e anean, he Gul , and he Red Sea,” I an, The Gul , The Gul |
Inqui y & Analysis Se ies No. 1155, MEMRI.
11 Mansha o Yossi and Kha azi E. , “I an’s Suppo Fo The Hou hi Rebellion In Yemen: ‘Wi hou
I an The e Would Be No Wa In Sy ia And Ansa Allah Would Ha e Ne e Eme ged’”, I an, The Gul ,
The Gul | Inqui y & Analysis Se ies No. 1155, MEMRI.
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“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
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On 3 Janua y 2020, an Ame ican d one killed in Baghdad Qassem
Soleimani, he Axis’s legenda y leade . The I anian egional p ojec su e ed
a blow hen, bu a su i able one. In a ousing speech a he a he ’s une al
in Teh an, Soleimani’s daugh e Zeynab p omised ha h ee o he hono a y
“uncles” would exac e enge o he a he ’s dea h: he Hezbollah leade
Hassan Nas allah, he Hamas leade Ismail Haniyeh, and Sy ia’s p esiden
Basha al-Assad. Wi hin ou mon hs in 2024, all h ee o hese a enge s “ha e
been dispa ched om he scene,” Haniyah and Nas allah killed by Is ael, and
Assad deposed by opposi ion o ces and now a e ugee in Moscow.12
Gaza/Hamas an
In he immedia e a e ma h o he Gul Wa , wi h he commencemen o
he Mad id peace p ocess in he Middle Eas in Oc obe 1991, I an con ened
a pa allel con e ence in Teh an o uni e adical o ganiza ions hos ile o he
PLO’s nego ia ions wi h Is ael.13 The Teh an con e ence pa icipan s, including
Hamas and he PIJ, all o which p o essed he des uc ion o Is ael, decided
o make e e y possible e o o sabo age he new-bo n peace p ocess. The
Teh an egime decided o suppo he “Pales inian esis ance” and es ablish
a high-le el commi ee o uni e adical o ganiza ions hos ile o nego ia ions
wi h Is ael in an Islamic on unde I anian leade ship.14 I an-Hamas ela ions
we e pu on a o mal basis in Oc obe 1992, when a Hamas delega ion, led
by he hen Sec e a y Gene al Mousa Abu-Ma zuq and spokesman Ib ahim
Ghawshah, isi ed Teh an. I an pe mi ed Hamas o open an o ice in Teh an
and pledged $30 million a yea o he o ganiza ion, and hey ag eed o ha e
he Re olu iona y Gua ds ain housands o Hamas ac i is s in I an and in
Hezbollah camps in Lebanon.15
Sabo aging he peace p ocess. Hamas ejec ed he Decla a ion o
P inciples (DoP, known as Oslo I) signed by Is ael and he PLO on Sep embe
13, 1993, and “ he plo o ecognize he occupying Zionis en i y.” Te o ism
o –in Hamas e minology– jihad has been he immedia e esponse o he Oslo
p ocess. Violen suicide a acks pe pe a ed by Islamis e o is s p o ed c ucial
in impac ing he pace and di ec ion o he Is aeli Pales inian poli ical p ocess.
I an p o ided $3 million a yea o bo h Hamas and he PIJ, and one housand
12 Azizi A ash, “RIP, he Axis o Resis ance,” The A lan ic, Decembe 17, 2024.
13 Rekhess, Elie, “The Te o is Connec ion—I an, he Islamic Jihad and Hamas,” Jus ice (Tel
A i ), May 1995, p. 4.
14 Ka mon, Ely, “Coun e e o ism Policy: Why Teh an S a s and S ops Te o ism?” Middle Eas
Qua e ly, Vol., V, No. 4, Decembe 1998.
15 Ku z, Ana & Tal, Nahman, “Hamas: Radical Islam in a Na ional S uggle,” Ja ee Cen e o
S a egic Cen e Memo andum, No. 48, July 1997.

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amilies o Pales inian suicide bombe s o de ainees om bo h o ganiza ions
ecei ed egula mon hly paymen s om I an.16
The Second In i ada (2000-2005) la ed up agains he backd op o he
humilia ion o Is aeli a my lea ing Lebanon in 2000, wi h a esu gence o
a med esis ance, especially in Gaza. Is ael’s 2005 disengagemen om Gaza
was a pi o al momen in he ajec o y o he Pales inian esis ance, no only
o Gaza bu also o ad ancing he b oade goal o “Pales inian libe a ion om
he i e o he sea.” Th ough collabo a ion wi h he Axis o Resis ance, he
mili a y wing o Hamas, he Izz al-Din al-Qassam B igades, and he a med
wing o he Islamic Jihad, he al-Quds B igades, ha e s eadily de eloped hei
mili a y capabili ies and expe ise, posing a subs an ial challenge o he Is aeli
a my.17
Con a y o he i s in i ada o 1987 – 1992, a spon aneous popula
up ising bandwagoned and con olled by he PLO and he newly eme ging
Hamas, he so-called “al-Aqsa in i ada”, beginning in Sep embe 2000, was
a p emedi a ed iolen campaign agains Is ael ain ed by s ong eligious
conno a ions in ended o ally a ound i no only he Pales inians bu also he
Muslim wo ld a la ge. The iolence was ini ia ed by Chai man Yasse A a a
when he ealized ha he Camp Da id summi could no deli e he kind o
ag eemen he d eam o – he es ablishmen o a Pales inian s a e in all o Gaza
and he Wes Bank wi h Je usalem’s Old Ci y as i s capi al wi hou enouncing
he “ igh o e u n” o he Pales inian e ugees. I an hold a cen al posi ion in
g an ing poli ical, p opaganda and mo ale and ma e ial aid o Hamas.18
Du ing he Second In i ada, Hamas and PIJ s aged dozens o deadly
suicide bombings, culmina ing wi h wel e suicide bombings o ci ilian a ge s
in Ma ch 2002. The Hamas a ack on 27 Ma ch, du ing a Holly Passo e Sede
in Ne anya’s Pa k Ho el, was he deadlies , killing wen y-nine ci ilians,
and inju ing one hund ed. Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, i s leade , decla ed ha he
a ack in ended o sabo age he Saudi peace plan discussed a he A ab League
summi in Bei u , “as a clea message o [ he] A ab ule s ha ou s uggling
people ha e chosen hei oad and know how o egain lands and igh s in ull,
depending only on God.”19
Hamas’s unexpec ed elec o al ic o y in he Pales inian pa liamen a y
elec ions o Janua y 2006 culmina ed in i s bloody akeo e o Gaza in June
2007. Egyp ’s Fo eign Minis e Ahmed Abul Ghei accused I an o encou aging
Hamas o seize he Gaza S ip, a cha ge ein o ced by he head o he Pales inian
16 Ibid.
17 A aie Mohammad, How he Axis o Resis ance is shaping he Middle Eas .
18 Ka mon Ely, “Gaza/Hamas an, Pla o m o I anian Des abiliza ion o he A ab Wo ld,” ICT
Special Repo , Janua y 5, 2009.
19 S o k Joe, “E ased In A Momen . Suicide Bombing A acks Agains Is aeli Ci ilians,” Human
Righ s Wa ch Repo , Oc obe 15, 2002.
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“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
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in elligence, Taw iq al-Ti awi, who said ha I an had p o ided Hamas wi h
aining and weapons and ha Hamas had ca ied ou i s plan in ‘coo dina ion
wi h I an’.20
The Oc obe 7, 2023, Hamas led massac e and i s a e ma h
On he mo ning o Oc obe 7, 2023, a ba age o a ound 5,000 ocke s
om he Gaza S ip hi a ge s in sou he n Is ael. A med mo o ized pa aglide s
and gunmen in ucks, on mo o bikes, s eamed h ough holes blown h ough
Is ael’s once- aun ed bo de ence and began i ing on a mix u e o ci ilian
and mili a y a ge s. Seabo n di e s and small boa s a acked o he a ge s on
Is ael’s coas . A ound 1,200 Is aelis we e killed and a ound 3,500 wounded;
o e 240 we e aken hos age. Mos o he igh e s who c ossed in o Is ael we e
membe s o Hamas and Pales inian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), joined by gunmen om
nume ous smalle Pales inian ac ions. The scope, b u ali y, and audaci y o
he a acks, along wi h he weapons sys ems used, e ealed a le el o planning,
des uc i eness, and capabili y ha su p ised many analys s bo h in and ou o
go e nmen .21
The e o is s pene a ed se e al sou he n se lemen s and began a
mu de ous killing sp ee. The e idence ound on he g ound, he documen a ion
caugh on came a by he e o is s hemsel es, as well as su i o s’ es imonies,
documen a ho endous s o y o a acke s de oid o any sh ed o humani y.
Families we e slaugh e ed in hei beds, ci ilians we e bu n ali e, babies we e
bu che ed, and hund eds o men and women we e iciously gunned down
while simply dancing a a music es i al.22 I is conside ed he wo s an i-
Jewish pog om since he WWII and he deadlies e en in Is ael’s his o y since
independence.
In esponse o hese g a e de elopmen s, he S a e o Is ael o icially
decla ed wa , he i s ime he s a e has done so since he Oc obe 1973 Wa .
The A my launched Ope a ion Swo ds o I on aimed a coun e ing he h ea
posed by he e o is o ganiza ion Hamas. I ep esen s a decisi e e o by
Is ael o sa egua d he secu i y and well-being o i s ci izens and o add ess he
challenges posed by ex emis elemen s in he egion.
In killing mo e han 1,200 Is aelis and aking mo e han 240 hos ages,
Hamas clea ly an icipa ed a la ge-scale mili a y esponse agains Gaza, an
expec a ion con i med in he Is aeli a my’s unp eceden edly iolen ai and
20 Samuel S. & Raji C., “The Hamas Takeo e and i s A e ma h,” S a egic Analysis, Vol. 31,
Issue 5, 2007.
21 Smy h Phillip, “The Pa h o Oc obe 7: How I an Buil Up and Managed a Pales inian ‘Axis o
Resis ance’”, CTC Sen inel, Decembe 2023 Issue, Vol. 16, Issue 11.
22 “Swo ds o I on: Wa in he Sou h - Hamas’ A ack on Is ael,” Is aeli Minis y o Fo eign A ai s
websi e, 27.05.2024.
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g ound o ensi e. The Is aeli campaign, which has killed ens o housands o
Pales inians, and caused eno mous de as a ion ac oss he S ip, has domina ed
he a en ion o he wo ld and in e na ional media o weeks. In essence, a e
yea s o being consigned o he backg ound, Gaza has become again he hea
o he Is aeli Pales inian con on a ion.
Acco ding o a Reu e s epo , by he end o Ma ch 2025, Pales inian
heal h au ho i ies claimed Is ael’s g ound and ai campaign in Gaza has killed
mo e han 50,000 people, wi h nea ly a hi d o he dead unde 18. Is ael’s
mili a y has also accep ed in b ie ings ha he o e all Gaza casual y numbe s
a e b oadly eliable. Howe e , Is ael es ima es he numbe o Hamas igh e s
killed a 20,000. I says abou one ci ilian was killed o e e y igh e , a a io
i blames on Hamas o using ci ilian acili ies and he ci ilians as human
shields.23 Ci ilians in Gaza ha e no access o he 500km o unnels used by
Hamas e o is s o hide. Mousa Abu Ma zouk, a membe o he Hamas Poli ical
Bu eau said in Oc obe 2023 ha he unnels in Gaza we e buil o p o ec
Hamas igh e s om ai s ikes, no ci ilians. He added ha Hamas igh s Is ael
om wi hin he unnels and ha since 75% o he esiden s in he Gaza S ip a e
e ugees, i is he esponsibili y o he Uni ed Na ions o p o ec hem!24
The Is aeli go e nmen se h ee objec i es o he wa in he S ip: he
collapse o Hamas’s ule, he des uc ion o i s mili a y capabili ies, and he
e u n o hos ages ha we e aken du ing he a ack. On Janua y 19, 2025,
a cease i e be ween Is ael and Hamas came in o e ec . This was pa o he
ini ia ion o a second deal be ween he wo sides o he e u n o he Is aeli
hos ages in exchange o he elease o Pales inian p isone s, a g adual
wi hd awal o The Is ael De ense Fo ces (IDF) p esence om he S ip, and
o he e u n o Pales inians o hei homes in he no he n Gaza S ip. Abou
a mon h la e , on Ma ch 18, Is ael ended he cease i e and esumed a acks in
he S ip.25
The e u n o P esiden T ump o he Whi e House has upended he ca ds
ega ding he Gaza S ip. T ump has ein oduced and in ensi ied he op ion o
no maliza ion be ween Is ael and Saudi A abia, which is supposed o include
a poli ical engagemen wi h he Pales inian issue. A he same ime, he US
p esiden p esen ed an idea o he “ olun a y emig a ion,” o e acua ion o he
en i e Pales inian popula ion om he a ea as pa o a new ision o he S ip.
Meanwhile, he s a egic in en ions o he cu en Is aeli go e nmen
ega ding he Gaza S ip, in bo h he sho and long e m, emain unclea . P ime
23 Al-Mugh abi Nidal and Fa ge Emma, “Gaza dea h oll: how many Pales inians has Is ael’s
o ensi e killed?”, Reu e s, Ma ch 24, 2025. See also INSS pos , “The T u h behind he Numbe
o Gazan Casual ies Repo ed in he In e na ional Media,” a h ps://www.inss.o g.il/social_media/
numbe s/
24 In e iew on Oc obe 27, 2023, ai ed on Russia Today TV. See on he MEMRI websi e.
25 Gu e man O e , “S a egic Al e na i es o he Gaza S ip,” INSS Policy Analysis, Ap il 10,
2025.
37
“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
Minis e Benjamin Ne anyahu has adop ed P esiden T ump’s popula ion
e acua ion plan as Is ael’s new o icial policy o he “day a e ,” bu con inues
o claim ha no maliza ion wi h Saudi A abia will ma e ialize soon.
The A ab s a es ha e o med a uni ied on ejec ing he idea o e acua ing
he S ip and a e a emp ing o p omo e an al e na i e ision o s abilizing Gazza
h ough a Pales inian echnoc a ic adminis a ion and a ci ilian econs uc ion
p ojec ha would no equi e popula ion displacemen . Simul aneously, Saudi
A abia is sha pening i s demand o “pa ing a pa h owa d he es ablishmen
o a Pales inian s a e” as pa o he condi ions o no maliza ion wi h Is ael.
One common h ead linking he a acke s we e hei ex ensi e inancial,
mili a y, and poli ical connec ions o he Islamic Republic o I an, he p oduc
o ex ensi e cul i a ion and managemen o a Pales inian “Axis o Resis ance”
by Teh an o e many yea s. Ye no ‘smoking gun’ has eme ged o di ec I anian
in ol emen in o g eenligh ing o he Oc obe 7 a acks. This may e lec he
opaci y o many p oxy- ela ed ac i i ies by I an and Teh an’s delibe a e pu sui
o plausible deniabili y. Al e na i ely, i may e lec he ac ha “while I an
cocked he gun, i was i s Pales inian p oxies ha pulled he igge .”26
Acco ding o Lisa Issac, Russian esea che specialized in he Middle
Eas , he Axis o Resis ance hailed he ope a ion as “sha e ing he my h o he
in incible a my,” “exposing he allacy o Is aeli echnological and mili a y
supe io i y,” “an in elligence ailu e,” and “a pe manen o e u ning o he
ules o engagemen .” Amid his eupho ic he o ic o “ ic o y,” ew obse e s
o he egional landscape o esaw an impending ca as ophe in Gaza. Is ael
became, acco ding o Isaac, “a wounded beas ,” poised o unleash de as a ion
- no me ely seeking e enge, bu aiming o disman le he en i e Axis, basically
anyone aligned wi h Teh an ac oss he Middle Eas o con on Is ael.27
Suppo e s o I an’s axis no iced ha i s s ance was no wha hey had
expec ed. I an kep insis ing ha i had no wa ning o he Oc obe 7 in asion
o Is ael by Hamas. Aya ollah Khamenei old Ismail Haniyeh ha “I an would
con inue o lend he g oup i s poli ical and mo al suppo bu wouldn’ in e ene
di ec ly” and complained ha Hamas didn’ wa n I an o he a ack, so hey
will no en e he wa on hei behal . As Is ael’s bomba dmen o Gaza g ew
inc easingly in ense, Teh an escala ed i s he o ic agains Is ael, decla ing ha
i would ‘no s and idly by in he ace o wha i called ‘Is aeli c imes.’ Ye on
he g ound, no hing changed - excep ha he si ua ion wo sened, plunging
Gaza, he Wes Bank, Yemen and he Lebanese on in o deepe ca as ophe.28
26 Smy h Phillip, The Pa h o Oc obe 7: How I an Buil Up and Managed a Pales inian ‘Axis o
Resis ance’.
27 Issac Lisa, “The C ucible: The ‘Axis o Resis ance’ Collapse in Wa , o Su i al Th ough
Peace?” Russia in Global A ai s, Ap ill 8, 2025.
28 Ibid.
44 Ely Ka mon
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T ump o icials see li le oom o diplomacy wi h he g oup and a e “open” o
suppo ing a g ound ope a ion by “local o ces” in Yemen, uni s o he ous ed
bu s ill in e na ionally- ecognized Republic o Yemen Go e nmen . Yemeni
o ces wan o y o ad ance on he g ound agains he Hou his, aking ad an age
o he U.S. s ikes, bu appea ill-p epa ed o a majo g ound o ensi e.51
As he T ump adminis a ion ies he Hou hi issue wi h I an’s in e en ion
in he egion, i is possible some solu ion will be ound in he amewo k o he
nego ia ions on he a e o I an’s nuclea p ojec .
The impac o Assad egime’s all in Sy ia
Assad owed his h one o i s a mies, which helped him kill hund eds o
housands o ci ilians in he ci il wa ha began in 2011. Unlike o he membe s
o he Axis, Assad wasn’ an Islamis . He also had eal di e ences wi h Hamas
( he only Sunni membe o he Axis). Bu Sy ia was he only Uni ed Na ions
membe -s a e o be conside ed pa o he Axis, and i s e i o y was c ucial o
I an o pass supplies h ough Sy ia o Hezbollah, in neighbo ing Lebanon, and
use i as a pla o m on Is ael’s bo de o ga he i s mul ina ional, mos ly Shii e
egimen s om A ghanis an, Pakis an, I aq, and elsewhe e.52
The loss o Sy ia as a s a egic ally is a se e e blow o he Axis o
Resis ance. Wi hou Sy ia as a land link, he Axis aces signi ican logis ical
and s a egic challenges, h ea ening i s cohesion and e ec i eness. The all o
he Assad egime also h ea ens Hezbollah’s posi ion in Lebanon. Wi h Sy ia
unde he in luence o a Sunni mili an g oup, he e is he possibili y o a Sunni
insu gency agains Hezbollah in Lebanon.53
Cu en ly, Tu key seems bes posi ioned o play a decisi e ole in shaping
Sy ia’s u u e. I is no coincidence ha Ib ahim Kalin, he head o Tu kish
in elligence, was he i s high- anking o eign o icial o isi Sy ia’s in e im
go e nmen , ollowed by Fo eign Minis e Hakan Fidan. Tu key’s pu sui o
powe and dominance in Sy ia is p o oking unease in many qua e s, including
Is ael. Since he Gaza wa , ela ions be ween E dogan’s Tu key and Benjamin
Ne anyahu’s Is ael ha e been openly hos ile. The p esence o Tu kish oops in
Sy ian e i o ies bo de ing Is ael aises he isk o di ec mili a y con on a ion
be ween he wo na ions, acco ding o a epo by he Nagel Commission,
named a e i s chai man.54
51 “Endgame Fo Cos ly U.S. Campaign Agains Yemen’s Hou his Is Unclea , In elb ie , The
Sou an Cen e , Ap il 28, 2025.
52 Azizi A ash, RIP, he Axis o Resis ance.
53 Mahmoudian A man, “I an’s ‘Axis o Resis ance’ Weakened Bu S ill Dange ous,” S imson
Commen a y, Pi o al Places, Janua y 10, 2025/
54 Meina dus Ronald, “Sy ia’s impac on egional i al ies,” Ka hime ini English Edi ion, Janua y
24, 2025.

45
“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
Recen ly, Is aeli secu i y expe s wa ned ha Tu key’s g owing
in luence in Sy ia could pose a g ea e h ea o Is ael han I an. Mos
commen a o s and he Is aeli go e nmen a e conce ned ha he new Sy ian
go e nmen will all in o he hands o jihadis s due o Ahmed Sha aa’s
(aka. Muhammed al-Julani’) pas , which was linked o al-Qaeda and la e
unde wen a signi ican change. Bu as he new Sy ia’s P esiden unc ions
as a se ious and p agma ic leade , he eal conce n om he no h, e en a
he immedia e le el, comes om Tu key. The Tu ks ha e p oposed a long-
e m s a egic ag eemen in which Tu key will ebuild he Sy ian a my and
gain con ol o i e signi ican e i o ial bases. E dogan’s neo-O oman
aspi a ions and Muslim B o he hood ideology, his h ea s o wa agains
Is ael, he unds he has pou ed in o Islamis o ganiza ions in Je usalem o
s eng hen Tu key’s posi ion on he Temple Moun , con on ing Jo danian
and Pales inian in e es s, equi es maximum Is aeli cau ion, as i allows
he Tu kish a my, which is much s onge han I an’s, o be s a ioned on i s
no he n bo de .55
Wi h he all o he Asad egime, he p ospec s o Axis’ membe s will
change. I signi ies he end o a s ong ally ha allowed I an o p ac ice
o wa d de ense in i s clash wi h Is ael, on he coun y’s no he n bo de . The
esul ing epu a ional damage o I an’s image wi hin he Axis o Resis ance
will be immense as i p o ed incapable o p o ec ing i s allies and asse s. The
Axis migh also p o e less use ul as a alued he o ical de ice and aming
mechanism championed by he Islamic Republic conside ing I an’s acu e
in e nal secu i y h ea s a e Oc obe 7, 2023, and he deple ed s a egic and
mili a y op ions o coun e Is ael.56
I aq
I aq is, in many ways, in a conund um: i is an ally o I an ye hos s a
U.S.-led mili a y coali ion. O e he yea s, I an-backed a med g oups calling
hemsel es he “Islamic Resis ance” ha e epea edly a ge ed he Ame ican
embassy in Baghdad and mili a y and diploma ic acili ies elsewhe e in I aq.
The Uni ed S a es has ca ied ou ai s ikes in e alia ion ha ha e killed
dozens, including senio o icials such as I aq’s Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis,
depu y chai man o he Popula Mobiliza ion Commission (PMC), a o mal
go e nmen al agency ha includes all I aqi Popula Mobiliza ion Fo ces
(PMF) g oups. Al-Muhandis was killed by an Ame ican d one s ike in
Janua y 2020, oge he wi h I an’s Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Teh an sees I aq
55 Shimon Cohen in e iews Ely Ka mon, “Te o ism Resea ch Expe : The Real Fea Is F om
Tu key,” Channel 7 adio (in Heb ew), Decembe 20, 2-24.
56 Schwa z Ke in, “The End o he Axis o Resis ance?” Middle Eas Repo , 313 (Win e 2024).
46 Ely Ka mon
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
as i s mos impo an neighbo , an economic li eline and a base om which
o p ojec mili a y powe .57
I aqi Shia Islamis a ilia es, like Ka a’ib Hezbollah and Ha aka
Hezbollah al-Nujaba’, eme ged du ing he Ame ican-led occupa ion a e
he 2003 in asion, bu gained mo e powe , popula i y, and ele ance by
joining I aq’s Popula Mobiliza ion Uni s in he igh agains he Islamic
S a e om 2014.
Ka a’ib Hezbollah, an I aqi Axis g oup wi h a mos ly local agenda, has
en e ed he ay o he Gaza wa on Janua y 28, 2024, wi h a d one a ack on
an Ame ican ou pos in Jo dan called Towe 22, killing h ee U.S. soldie s. Ye
Ka a’ib Hezbollah op ed o es ain a e I an pleaded wi h i , a oiding u he
mo es ha migh ha e spi aled in o a cos ly con on a ion.58
A home and in Washing on, he Hashd mili ias cons i u e Sudani’s bigges
challenge. Since Hamas’ Oc obe 7, 2023, a ack on Is ael, hese mili ias ha e
conduc ed o e 100 s ikes on U.S. o ces in I aq, Sy ia, and Jo dan. In Oc obe
and No embe 2024 alone, hese g oups a acked Is ael wi h d ones and c uise
missiles on nea ly 150 occasions. La ely, howe e , hese g oups ha e gone
la gely silen . Indeed, U.S. oops and diploma s in I aq ha e no been a ge ed
by he mili ias in nea ly six mon hs.59
Ib ahim Al-Sumaidaie, ad iso o I aq’s p ime minis e , said in mid-
Decembe 2024, ha he US demanded I aq disman les a med g oups in he
coun y, ese ing he use o o ce i he I aqi go e nmen does no ac .60
Discussions be ween P ime Minis e Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and
se e al mili ia leade s we e “ e y ad anced”, and he g oups we e inclined
o comply wi h U.S. calls o disa mamen . The six mili ia commande s
in e iewed in Baghdad and a sou he n p o ince, who eques ed anonymi y,
a e om he Ka a’ib Hezbollah, al-Nujaba’, Ka aib Sayyed al-Shuhada and
Ansa ullah al-Aw iyaa g oups. “T ump is eady o ake he wa wi h us o
wo se le els, we know ha , and we wan o a oid such a bad scena io,” said
a commande o Ka a’ib Hezbollah. Ka a’ib Hezbollah issued a s a emen
denying ha any o i s membe s had spoken o Reu e s.61
Fa had Alaaeldin, Sudani’s o eign a ai s ad ise , old Reu e s ha he
p ime minis e was commi ed o ensu ing all weapons in I aq we e unde s a e
con ol h ough “cons uc i e dialogue wi h a ious na ional ac o s”. I aq is
57 Sajad Jiyad, “I aq Walks a Tigh ope in o he New T ump E a,” Commen a y Cen u y
In e na ional, Cen u y Founda ion, Ma ch 3, 2025.
58 Ali-Khan Veena and Cambanis, Down bu No Ou : Reassessing he Axis o Resis ance.
59 Schenke Da id, “I aqis Fea Tha T ump’s Ame ica Will Depa Once and Fo All,” The
Na ional In e es , Ma ch 4, 2025.
60 Ose an A iel, “US demands I aq disman les I an-backed mili ias, o else,” i24NEWS English
Channel, Decembe 18, 2024.
61 Rasheed Ahmed, “Exclusi e: I an-backed mili ias in I aq eady o disa m o a e T ump w a h,”
Reu e s, Ap il 8, 2025.
47
“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
seeking o balance i s alliances wi h bo h Ame ica and I an in i s dealing wi h
he mili ias on i s soil.62
Senio sou ces in I aq, including commande s in mili ias ha ha e been
esponsible o hund eds o a acks agains Is ael and he US - ha e announced
a he beginning o Ap il 2025, ha hey will disa m o a oid a acks by he US
and Is ael. The mili ias ha e e acua ed headqua e s, and senio commande s
a e eplacing phones, ehicles and houses. The Re olu iona y Gua ds ha e
gi en hei blessing o he mo e.63
The Axis o Resis ance keeps ge ing smalle , as I an may be losing i s g ip
on I aq, oo, a gues A ash Azizi.64
Howe e , acco ding o o he epo s, I an has ans e ed new long- ange
missiles o p oxy g oups in I aq, de ying hopes ha he an i-Ame ican mili ias
would disa m. The deli e ies om he IRGC ai o ce include su ace- o-
su ace missiles ha could each as a as Eu ope, as well as sho e - ange Quds
351 c uise and Jamal 69 ballis ic missiles, The Times o London epo ed. The
new long- ange models had ne e been gi en o I aq’s p o-I anian mili ias.65
The planned wi hd awal o Ame ican o ces om cen al I aq o e s I an
and i s I aqi a ilia es a s a egic oppo uni y o consolida e hei in luence and
compensa e o he loss o Sy ia. I an en e s 2025 wi h i s la ge ne wo k o s a e
and non-s a e allies –buil up pains akingly o e nea ly hal a cen u y– se e ely
damaged. I an has sponso ed and unded his ne wo k unning om Lebanon
o Yemen, Gaza o I aq, no only o p ojec powe bu also as a de e en
agains i s p ima y ad e sa ies, he Uni ed S a es and Is ael. Howe e , e en s
beginning wi h Hamas’s de as a ing a acks on Is ael on Oc obe 7, 2023, ha e
boome anged in spec acula ashion, decima ing key igu es and s uc u es
wi hin he alliance.66
I an
I an began ea ing i s membe s in he Axis o Resis ance as pa o a
p ojec agains U.S. and Is aeli goals in he Middle Eas , bes summa ized
in he “uni y o on s” doc ine ha Teh an p omo ed wi h all i s pa ne s.
The esul o his doc ine was ha all Axis membe s should a ack o hold
i e oge he , inc easing hei le e age agains Is ael and he Uni ed S a es.
As he Axis o Resis ance g ew s onge and added mo e membe s in he
62 Ibid.
63 Rosenzweig Assa , “P o-I anian mili ias in I aq p epa e o disa m o a oid con on a ion wi h
T ump, N12 websi e, Ap il 7, 2025.
64 Azizi A ash, RIP, he Axis o Resis ance.
65 TOI S a , “I an sends new missiles o I aqi p oxies ha we e said o be disa ming – epo ,”
Times o Is ael, Ap il 9, 2025.
66 Mahmoudian A man, I an’s ‘Axis o Resis ance’ Weakened Bu S ill Dange ous.
48 Ely Ka mon
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
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las wo decades, i gained an au a o nea in incibili y. Key leade s o hese
g oups and i s media ou le s con eyed he imp ession ha hey possessed
he capabili y o launch “a sweeping, mul ip onged assaul on Is ael—
whe e hey could ca ch Is ael o gua d, unde mine i s mili a y supe io i y,
and d ain i s Ame ican-supplied esou ces” and could balance Wes e n
powe s despi e i s appa en disad an age in con en ional mili a y s eng h.
The ne wo k’s geog aphic sp ead - o en e e ed o as he “Shia C escen ”
- enci cled Is ael.67
Since he 1979 Re olu ion, I an has hesi a ed o engage wi h Is ael di ec ly.
I an’s suppo o i s non-s a e allies in he egion, Hezbollah, Hamas and he
Hou his, se es o expand i s own poli ical and mili a y in luence in he egion
and mus align wi h i s geos a egic in e es s.68
Acco ding o Ali-Khan and Cambanis, analys s hough ha he
Axis could no be ully disman led, hanks o i s ho izon al s uc u e as
he ne wo k would eplace killed leade s, ensu ing con inui y. Bu a e
he Uni ed S a es assassina ed Qassem Soleimani in Janua y 2020, he
Axis ansi ioned “ om a op-down, I anian-d i en hie a chy o a mo e
ho izon ally in eg a ed alliance.” This shi gained momen um unde he
leade ship o his successo , Esmail Qaani. Soleimani was he commande
o he IRGC Quds Fo ce and had spen decades cul i a ing pe sonal
ela ionships wi h e e y majo Resis ance leade . Pe haps he Axis ne e
eco e ed he ope a ional capaci y ha esided in hose ela ionships.
While I an e ained i s ole as he s a egic a chi ec , he new s uc u e
g an ed membe s g ea e au onomy and allowed hem o o ge independen
ies wi h Teh an and one ano he .69
Indeed, he elimina ion o Qasem Soleimani was p obably he i s igge
o he subsequen ailu es o he Axis o Resis ance.
On Ap il 1, 2024, Is ael s uck I an’s consula e in he hea o Damascus,
a ge ing Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senio IRGC Quds Fo ce commande
o e seeing ope a ions in Sy ia and Lebanon, and se e al o he high o ice s.
On Ap il 13, 2024, I an launched i s i s -e e di ec a ack on Is ael om i s
e i o y, i ing o e 300 missiles and d ones, ye i ailed o al e he cou se o
he con lic . Is ael in e cep ed mos o hese s ikes and esponded decisi ely
on Ap il 19 wi h a e alia o y d one a ack a ge ing he Is ahan ai base, a clea
demons a ion o i s di ec challenge o I an’s de e ence capabili ies. On July
24, 2014, Is ael escala ed ensions by assassina ing Ismail Haniyeh, head o
Hamas’s poli ical bu eau, in a a ge ed s ike on his esidence in Teh an. The
67 Ali-Khan Veena and Cambanis Thanassis, Down bu No Ou : Reassessing he Axis o
Resis ance.
68 Alemzadeh Ma yam, I an, Pales ine and he Axis o Resis ance.
69 Ali-Khan Veena and Cambanis Thanassis, Down bu No Ou : Reassessing he Axis o
Resis ance.
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“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
a ack challenged I an’s egional ole and exposed i s inabili y o p o ec a key
ally.70
On Sep embe 17, 2024, he synch onized page and walkie- alkie
bombings s uck in Lebanon, killing a leas 39, and wounding some 4,000. The
ope a ion le Hezbollah “ unc ionally dead, pa alyzed, and blind.” The a ack
was desc ibed by Is aeli Mossad chie Da id Ba nea as “ u ning poin ” in he
igh in Lebanon, “by which we u ned he ables on ou enemies.” Toge he
wi h Nas allah in his bunke was killed Gen. Abbas Nil o oushan, IRGC
commande in Lebanon. A di ec line can be d awn om he page ope a ion o
he elimina ion o Nas allah and he cease i e ag eemen wi h Lebanon.71
On Oc obe 1, 2024, I an launched a ound 200 missiles a Is ael, i s second
di ec a ack in less han six mon hs, a ge ing Is ael’s Mossad headqua e s,
h ee ai bases, ada sys ems, and a mo ed uni s. Mos o he missiles we e
in e cep ed by Is ael’s ae ial de ense sys em, while some hi mili a y bases bu
did no cause majo damage o casual ies. The IRGC boas ed a 90% success
a e, bu he ope a ion ell a sho o expec a ions o he Resis ance’s
suppo e s, pa icula ly in Lebanon, who saw i as a hal -hea ed esponse o
Is ael’s escala ing assassina ions.72
I an’s wo di ec a acks on Is ael du ing 2024 ep esen ed an escala ion
compa ed o p e ious indi ec encoun e s be ween he wo coun ies. Bu he
a acks we e calcula ed so as no o isk a ull-blown con on a ion wi h Is ael.73
On No embe 27, 2024, a cease i e was accep ed by he decapi a ed
leade ship o Hezbollah in Lebanon. Bu he wa me ely shi ed o a new
on , Basha al-Assad’s egime in Sy ia, which “de ied all expec a ions.”
Hay’a Tah i al-Sham opposi ion ac ions, which con olled he no he n Idlib
p o ince in Sy ia since 2015, ook ad an age o he new si ua ion and launched
a quick o ensi e ha saw he s a egic p o inces o Aleppo, Hama and Homs
collapse in apid succession like dominoes. The bewilde ed IRGC, which had
p e iously in e ened o sa e he Assad egime du ing he ci il wa , had o
abandon immedia ely he Sy ian e i o y o Lebanon o I aq, oge he wi h he
allied oops o Hezbollah and a ious p o-I anian mili ias. In jus en days,
by Decembe 8, 2024, Assad’s egime c umbled comple ely and a new Sunni
egime, wi h a o ally di e en iden i y and di e en o eign policy s a egy is
now uling Sy ia.74
The all o Assad changed Sy ia’s and he egion’s a e and e ealed he
weaknesses in I an’s Axis wi h signi ican implica ions o I an’s egional
s a egy and i s de e en capabili ies. In pa allel, I an’s p oxies showed signs
70 Issac Lisa, The C ucible: The ‘Axis o Resis ance’ Collapse in Wa , o Su i al Th ough Peace.
71 Ibid.
72 Ibid.
73 Alemzadeh Ma yam, I an, Pales ine and he Axis o Resis ance.
74 Issac Lisa, The C ucible: The ‘Axis o Resis ance’ Collapse in Wa , o Su i al Th ough Peace.

50 Ely Ka mon
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
o educed e ec i eness. The in e na ional landscape u ned decisi ely agains
I an wi h P esiden T ump’s e u n o powe in Janua y 2025.75
The global implica ions
In e na ional media equen ly dwell on wo “axes,” bu sepa a ely: a
Eu asian axis o China, Russia, I an, and No h Ko ea, and a Middle Eas “axis
o esis ance” led by I an ha includes Hezbollah in Lebanon; he Assad egime
in Sy ia (un il ecen ly); Shia mili ias in Sy ia and I aq; Hamas and Pales inian
Islamic Jihad in Gaza and he Wes Bank; and he Hou his in Yemen. The
all o he Assad egime, ollowing Is ael’s mili a y ea s agains Hamas and
Hezbollah and i s s ikes on I an, has b ough he second axis o a his o ic
low and pushed Russia o wi hd aw a leas some o i s asse s om Sy ia. I is
p uden , howe e , o assume ha Russia and I an’s p esence in Sy ia and he
axis o esis ance i sel a e down bu no ou .76
B ig. Gen. Assa O ion (Res.), The Washing on Ins i u e’s Fellow, a senio
esea ch ellow a he INSS, and o me head o he IDF S a egic Planning
Di ision, compa es he wo an i-Wes e n coali ions, he Eu asian axis o China,
Russia, I an, and No h Ko ea, and he Middle Eas “axis o esis ance” led by
I an, challenging he global and egional o de . On he ba le ields, Uk aine
is de ending i sel om Russia, while Is ael is igh ing he esis ance axis on
se en on s. Logis ically, i is he Wes agains bo h axes.77
O on de ails he mili a y suppo Russia has ecei ed om I an (d ones,
ballis ic missiles, a ille y shells, small-a ms ammuni ion), No h Ko ea
( housands o oops, ballis ic missiles, ocke s), China (a ack d ones), and
e en ec ui ed hund eds o Sy ian and Yemeni me cena ies.
I an is membe o he wo coali ions, wi h ambi ions ha go beyond he
Middle Eas and include nuclea weapons. Russia has supplied I an wi h S-300
long- ange ai de ense sys ems (which we e des oyed by Is ael in Ap il and
Oc obe ), has begun supplying i wi h Sukhoi Su-35 igh e je s, launches
I anian sa elli es, and will p obably sha e ad anced mili a y echnologies
wi h Teh an, including nuclea echnology. Repo edly, Russia, wi h I anian
media ion, also p o ided he Hou his wi h a ge ing da a o shipping a acks in
he Red Sea, while GRU mili a y ad iso s in Yemen help he Hou his pin down
U.S. na al asse s and deple e he U.S. s ock o in e cep o missiles. The wa
zones in Uk aine and a ound Is ael a e es ing g ounds o ad anced weapons
sys ems and mili a y p ac ices.
75 Ibid.
76 O ion Assa , “Two ‘Axes’ Con e ging in I an,” PolicyWa ch 3973, The Washing on Ins i u e,
Decembe 23, 2024.
77 Ibid.
51
“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
I an as a i al node a he in e sec ion be ween he wo axes is acili a ing
access o he Middle Eas by he Wes ’s i als and h ea ening in e na ional
shipping as well as U.S. o ces, pa ne s, and allies in he egion and endange ing
Wes e n pa ne s and in e es s in Eu ope and he Indo-Paci ic. Teh an is also
da ing enough o plo o assassina e Donald T ump.
The 2021 China-I an “comp ehensi e s a egic pa ne ship” ag eemen
included coope a ion on mili a y, secu i y, in elligence, and cybe issues, while
he wo coun ies’ na ies, alongside Russia’s, pe iodically d ill o he coas o
I an. No h Ko ea expo ed ballis ic missiles and unneling echnologies o he
Middle Eas as well as nuclea echnology, such as he plu onium p oduc ion
eac o ha Is ael des oyed in Sy ia in 2007.
A he g and s a egy le el, a gues O on, he axes’ egional and global
pos u e calls o a pa allel Wes e n a chi ec u e, a egional-global pa ne ship
wi h i al U.S. leade ship and suppo , p omo ing in e - egional in eg a ion and
in e ope abili y globally. The ou come in one egion, such as Uk aine, o he
Middle Eas , will su ely a ec he o he s, such as Asia. They should be seen as
a s a egic whole a he han sepa a e.
This a chi ec u e al eady exis s, as p oposed by P esiden Joe Biden on
Sep embe 9, 2023, on he sidelines o he G20 Summi con ened by India. The
new ini ia i e aims building “enhanced connec i i y and economic in eg a ion
be ween Asia, he A abian Gul , and Eu ope”, The India-Middle Eas -Eu ope
Economic Co ido (IMEC). The MoU was signed by India, h ee Eu opean
pa ne s (F ance, I aly, and Ge many), he Eu opean Union, and wo Gul s a es
(Saudi A abia and he Uni ed A ab Emi a es (UAE)). Though Is ael did no
o mally commi o he MoU, i is widely belie ed ha he coun y will be
in ol ed in he u u e o he p ojec . Indeed, his p ojec was concei ed du ing
a mee ing o he I2U2 o um o he US, Is ael, he UAE, and India (Sep embe
2022, e e ed o I in India as he “Wes e n Quad.”78
The co ido could cons i u e one o he mo e ambi ious coun e s o China’s
own Bel and Road Ini ia i e, which sough o connec mo e o he wo ld o ha
coun y’s economy. The announcemen came a a ime when Washing on was
encou aging Saudi A abia o no malize ies wi h Is ael – a linkage c i ical o
pe mi ing he co ido o each he Medi e anean on i s way o Eu ope.
The Hamas 7.10 g uesome e o is assaul on Is ael, was a c i ical s ep in
sabo aging he no maliza ion o ela ions be ween Is ael and Saudi A abia, and
indi ec ly also he MEC p ojec , and i se ed no only he s a egic in e es s o
I an, and Hamas, bu also he global goals o China.
78 Inba E aim, “The New US-led India-Middle Eas -Eu ope co ido will only be c edible and
meaning ul i ex ended o China’s backya d,” JISS Policy Pape , The Je usalem Ins i u e o S a egy
and Secu i y (JISS), Oc obe 2, 2023.
52 Ely Ka mon
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
Conclusion
Those wi h some a ini y o e en sympa hy o he Axis o Resis ance ha e
a mo e op imis ic iew abou i s u u e.
‘Global Pales ine’. Acco ding o a sympa he ic iew o Hamas,
“ o Zionis s, he alliance be ween A abs, I anians, Sunnis, and he Shia
is ‘unna u al’, and acco ding o hei sec a ian iews o Middle Eas e n
socie ies and poli ics, i should ha e c umbled long ago.” Howe e , he
longe i y o he Hamas - Axis coali ion couldn’ su i e “wi hou he global
p o-Pales ine mo emen and he cause o libe a ing al-Quds,” a allying
poin o he ummah ( he Muslim communi y). Beyond being a cause o
Muslims, Pales ine emains a “quin essen ial Thi d Wo ld issue,” connec ed
wi h b oade s uggles o social, economic, and en i onmen al jus ice, one
o he mos uni ying issues wi hin he di e se “global jus ice mo emen .”
“Radia ing bo h Thi d Wo ldis solida i y and Islamic ecumenicalism, he
he oes and ma y s o Pales ine ha e uni ied he elemen s o he Axis beyond
sec a ian iden i ies and poli ical disag eemen s.” The US, unde bo h T ump
and Biden, igo ously pu sued he Ab aham Acco ds o c ea e a new Middle
Eas cen e ed on no maliza ion wi h Is ael. I eplaced he so-called Is aeli
peace wi h Pales inians wi h an Is aeli no maliza ion “wi h he au oc a s in
he egion,” chie among hem he uling amilies in Saudi A abia, Bah ain,
and UAE. Howe e , Hamas’s ac ions on 7 Oc obe no only de ailed he
Ab aham Acco ds bu also e i ed he Axis o Resis ance.79
Ali-Khan and Cambanis, om he US p og essi e Cen u y Founda ion,
conside ha he Axis is “Down bu No Ou ”. They claim ha Is ael, he
Uni ed S a es, and local compe i o s ac oss he Middle Eas isk dange ously
unde es ima ing “ he I an-backed web o mili ias and hyb id ac o s.” The
Axis was unable o de e Is ael and canno de e Is ael now. A he same
ime, “ esis ance mili ias” e ain subs an ial local i epowe , which hey can
le e age o na ional o subna ional powe e en wi h a diminished egional
p o ile. Some, like he Assad egime, appea gone o e e , while o he s,
like he Hou his, Hezbollah and Hamas in “Pales ine,” emain indispu ably
powe ul in hei domes ic con ex s. signi ican ly weakened in i s sho -
e m po ency. Ye he Axis e ains economic and poli ical migh , commands
ens o pe haps hund eds o housands o igh e s ac oss he Middle Eas
and s ill ha e signi ican weapons and means o inancing. They e ain local
cons i uencies and con inue o ope a e as s a es wi hin s a es. They main ain
hei links o I an, which, wi hin limi s, s ill coo dina es hei ac i i y and aid.
“Less angibly, an ideological ib ancy o opposi ion o Is ael and he Uni ed
S a es con inues o anima e he Axis—e en as he dep h o commi men
79 Mohammad A aie, How he Axis o Resis ance is shaping he Middle Eas .
53
“The Axis o Resis ance” and he Wa in Gaza. Quo Vadis?
A auca ia. Re is a Ibe oame icana de Filoso ía, Polí ica, Humanidades y Relaciones In e nacionales, año 27, nº 59.
Segundo cua imes e de 2025. Pp. 29-59. ISSN 1575-6823 e-ISSN 2340-2199 h ps://dx.doi.o g/10.12795/a auca ia.2025.i59.02
o ha ideology a ies among Axis g oups.” Wi h he adi ional mili a y
op ions o shambled, i will look o ways o in lic economic pain ( hink Red
Sea shipping), a ge less- o i ied U.S. allies in he Gul , and amp up o he
ypes o asymme ic a acks.80
Th ee Cha ham House esea che s, Mansou , Al-Shake i and Haid, ha e
eached he conclusion ha con a y o e alua ions by some obse e s and
policymake s in Wes e n coun ies ha I an and i s allies a e se e ely weakened,
hei esea ch unco e s a se ies o adap able ne wo ks ha ha e his o ically
enabled I an o na iga e and o e come a ious shocks, ensu ing i s su i al
h ough s a egic alliances. I an sough o ex end i s ela ionships beyond he
axis, enhancing i s es ablished ies wi h China and Russia, while also engaging
mo e wi h o me geopoli ical ad e sa ies in he Middle Eas , including he Gul
A ab coun ies. This adap abili y is enhanced in he e ol ing global o de , whe e
he decline o US hegemony has gi en ise o a mul i-aligned wo ld, ma ked
“by a mo e luid and uns able se o ela ionships,” which enables I an o o ge
connec ions no only wi hin he axis and like-minded s a es and g oups, bu also
wi h adi ional allies o he Wes . The e o e, one o hei majo ecommenda ion
is engaging wi h I an and i s axis pa ne s a he han sidelining hem.81
In e es ingly, an e en mo e op imis ic posi ion is p esen ed by a esea che
close o Russian in e es s. Maybe I an is s ill capable o le e aging diplomacy
and skill ully exploi ing he con lic ing in e es s in he egion. Wha i I an
abandons i s adi ional ole in he egion? Wha i i p oposes a ‘Maximum
Peace’ ini ia i e in exchange o T ump’s ‘Maximum p essu e’? Wha i
Khamenei e ol s agains his own legacy be o e in e nal o ces can do so and
p oposes no jus nego ia ions, bu peace wi h Is ael i sel ? Wouldn’ his shi
he balance, in e nally, egionally, and globally? 82
Is his P esiden T ump’s app oach o he p oblem, a e Russian P esiden
Pu in has ag eed o assis in communica ing wi h I an on a ious issues, including
on Teh an’s nuclea p og am and i s suppo o egional an i-US p oxies ha seek
Is ael’s des uc ion?83 T ump ecen ly decla ed ha he is e en open o mee ing
I an’s sup eme leade Khomeini o p esiden Masoud Pezeshkian as he wo
coun ies began alks on I an’s nuclea p og am, which a US o icial desc ibes
as yielding “ e y good p og ess.” T ump ells Time magazine, in an Ap il 22
in e iew “I hink we’ e going o make a deal wi h I an.”84
80 Ali-Khan Veena and Cambanis Thanassis, Down bu No Ou : Reassessing he Axis o
Resis ance.
81 Mansou Renad, Al-Shake i Hayde and Haid Haid, “The shape-shi ing ‘axis o esis ance,’”
Resea ch Pape , Cha ham House, Ma ch 6, 2025.
82 Issac Lisa, The C ucible: The ‘Axis o Resis ance’ Collapse in Wa , o Su i al Th ough Peace.
83 “As T ump cozies up o Pu in, Russia o e s o media e US-I an nuclea alks,” Times o Is ael,
Ma ch 4, 2025.
84 “T ump says he’s willing o mee wi h I an’s sup eme leade , p esiden amid nuclea alks,”
Reu e s, Ap il 25, 2025.