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The influence that Spanish Labour Reform represents on Madrid Stock Market: An empirical analysis

Abstract

Empirical evidence for Spanish Stock Market shows that labour events, like a firm level collective agreement, have informative content for the market due to the loss of wealth that it implies for the investor. Labour Reforms which Spain experienced between the years 2010 and 2012 have allowed the jeopardising of employment and the destruction of jobs, substituting one well paid by another of lower cost for the firm, the cost of dismissal, or the proposals of substituting payoffs by the so-called Austrian backpack, and the elimination of the distinction between temporary and permanent contracts. These Labour Reforms affect many of the accounting and financial variables, which are the subject of analysis and followup by investors and analysts, next to the idiosyncrasy of the Open Shop System that is followed in Spain, the present article means to explore the effect on Madrid Stock Market. Our results, applying analysis techniques with decision trees where we control the effect of the economic crisis on the market reaction, show that the Labour Reforms of 2010 to 2012 are incorporated as negative, or positive, information when the investor perceives a possible decrease, or increase, in its future cash flows.

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The influence that Spanish Labour Reform represents on Madrid Stock Market: An empirical analysis

Author: Sabater Marcos, Ana María; Duarte Atoche, Mª Teresa; Laffarga Briones, Joaquina
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Year: 2021
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258004
Source: https://idus.us.es/bitstreams/9c7ca5fd-c2e7-4bc2-bc42-31d062235642/download
RESEARCH ARTICLE
The in luence ha Spanish Labou Re o m
ep esen s on Mad id S ock Ma ke : An
empi ical analysis
Ana M. Saba e Ma cosID
1
*, Te esa Dua e A oche
2
, Joaquina La a ga B iones
2
1Uni e sidad Miguel He na
´ndez, Alacan , Spain, 2Uni e sidad de Se illa, Se ille, Spain
*[email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
Empi ical e idence o Spanish S ock Ma ke shows ha labou e en s, like a i m le el col-
lec i e ag eemen , ha e in o ma i e con en o he ma ke due o he loss o weal h ha i
implies o he in es o . Labou Re o ms which Spain expe ienced be ween he yea s 2010
and 2012 ha e allowed he jeopa dising o employmen and he des uc ion o jobs, subs i-
u ing one well paid by ano he o lowe cos o he i m, he cos o dismissal, o he p opos-
als o subs i u ing payo s by he so-called Aus ian backpack, and he elimina ion o he
dis inc ion be ween empo a y and pe manen con ac s. These Labou Re o ms a ec
many o he accoun ing and inancial a iables, which a e he subjec o analysis and ollow-
up by in es o s and analys s, nex o he idiosync asy o he Open Shop Sys em ha is ol-
lowed in Spain, he p esen a icle means o explo e he e ec on Mad id S ock Ma ke . Ou
esul s, applying analysis echniques wi h decision ees whe e we con ol he e ec o he
economic c isis on he ma ke eac ion, show ha he Labou Re o ms o 2010 o 2012 a e
inco po a ed as nega i e, o posi i e, in o ma ion when he in es o pe cei es a possible
dec ease, o inc ease, in i s u u e cash lows.
1. In oduc ion
The egula ion o labou ela ions and he wo k ma ke in Spain ha e expe ienced signi ican
e o ms since o he c ea ion o he Wo ke s’ S a u e in 1980. These e o ms also end o be
g ea e and mo e ho ough in pe iods o economic c isis (as is he case o he e o ms o 2010,
2011 and 2012) han in pe iods o expansion. The main eason o his is he wo se wo k ma -
ke si ua ion in hose pe iods o economic c isis and he g ea e p essu es exis ing o imp o e
ha si ua ion. This is especially so when he ins i u ions domina ed by economic o hodoxy
ha e been denouncing he igidi y o he labou ma ke o yea s, blaming i o a i icially
main aining a high wo k cos .
Neoclassical heo y conside s wo k like any o he esou ce which con ibu es o he p o-
duc ion p ocess. I he supply su passes he demand, i will be enough o lowe he sala y o
e u n o he ma ke equilib ium. Fu he mo e, a lowe sala y also causes less o e as he e a e
wo ke s who a e no willing o wo k a his p ice. Following his heo y, unemploymen is
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OPEN ACCESS
Ci a ion: Saba e Ma cos AM, Dua e A oche T,
La a ga B iones J (2021) The in luence ha
Spanish Labou Re o m ep esen s on Mad id
S ock Ma ke : An empi ical analysis. PLoS ONE
16(10): e0258004. h ps://doi.o g/10.1371/jou nal.
pone.0258004
Edi o : J E. T inidad Sego ia, Uni e si y o Alme ia,
SPAIN
Recei ed: Ap il 28, 2021
Accep ed: Sep embe 15, 2021
Published: Oc obe 6, 2021
Copy igh : ©2021 Saba e Ma cos e al. This is an
open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o
he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which
pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and
ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal
au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : All ele an da a a e
wi hin he manusc ip and i s Suppo ing
In o ma ion iles.
Funding: The au ho (s) ecei ed no speci ic
unding o his wo k.
Compe ing in e es s: The au ho s ha e decla ed
ha no compe ing in e es s exis .
olun a y as he only hing ha has o be done o e adica e i is o wo k a he p ice a which
i ms a e willing o con ac all he wo k a ailable in he ma ke . The e o e, i sala ies do no
d op i is because o ade unions and he egula ion which p o ec s he wo ke s’ igh s, o else
he lack o he egula ions’ lexibili y p e en he ma ke om adjus ing.
I is exac ly a his poin ha he labou e o ms a ose in 2010, 2011 and 2012. These ha e
allowed he jeopa dising o employmen and he des uc ion o jobs, subs i u ing one well paid
by ano he o lowe cos o he i m. No o men ion he cos o dismissal, o he p oposals o
subs i u ing payo s by he so-called Aus ian backpack, and he elimina ion o he dis inc ion
be ween empo a y and pe manen con ac s.
Mo eo e , hese g owing demands o new labou e o ms a e s imula ed and ein o ced
by he subs an ial shi which ook place in economic policy in May 2010, by supp essing
Keynesian economic and ax s imuli which had been es ablished in sp ing 2009 and subs i u -
ing hem by a s ic iscal aus e i y policy. This means ha he p io and undamen al aim o
economic policy is he educ ion o he de ici and o he public deb . The objec i es o he c e-
a ion o employmen and he educ ion o unemploymen emain in he backg ound, subo di-
na ed in any case o he success o he economic policy o aus e i y in he imp o emen and
he ees ablishing o ma ke con idence in he Spanish economy. Bu how did he Spanish
inancial ma ke eally in e p e he di e en labou e o ms?
Collec i e ba gaining is an aspec which analys s and in es o s ake in o accoun due o he
mul i ude o scena ios which, in one way o ano he , a ec he i m’s u u e cash lows and
ha , he eby, modi y he dis ibu ion o weal h. The empi ical e idence o he Spanish ma ke
demons a es ha he signing o a i m’s collec i e ag eemen is in e p e ed as bad news by he
in es o , due o he inc ease in labou cos s which i in ol es.
The e a e a numbe o pape s add essing ela ionships be ween collec i e ba gaining and
co po a e pe o mance in a inancial con ex . These wo ks ha e been widely ocused on he
Anglo-Ame ican con ex . Fo ins ance, [1], and [2] ound ha i ms’ s ock p ices ell o he
US case in he p esence o unionisa ion wi hin a i m. In he same line, [3] obse es ha shocks
in labou cos s cause a p opo ional dec ease in a i m’s s ock p ice. F om a sligh ly di e en
app oach, [4] measu es co po a i e pe o mance by using Tobin’s Q and inds a nega i e co -
ela ion be ween union p esence and co po a i e pe o mance. Mo eo e , [5] ound ha i ms
wi h high union powe ha e educed s ock p ices and R&D in es men s. Mo eo e , [6] ound
ha collec i e ba gaining a ec s dis ibu ion, bu i does no ha e an impac on p oduc ion o
on he use o p oduc i e ac o s. Fo Eu ope, se e al pape s s udy he ela ionship be ween
s ock pe o mance and collec i e ba gaining. [7–10], who ocus on he Spanish con ex , ound
ha he ela ionship be ween collec i e ba gaining and s ock pe o mance is nega i e a ound
he da e o he e en .
A collec i e ag eemen is a w i en ag eemen , nego ia ed be ween he wo ke s and he
managemen , which es ablishes he wo ke s’ labou and economic condi ions. The ag eemen s
mos used in Spain a e sec o ial ag eemen s and i m ag eemen s. Sec o ial ag eemen s es ab-
lish he minimum sala y o he wo ke s o a speci ic sec o . The i m, o i s pa , can olun a -
ily disassocia e i sel om he sec o ial ag eemen and imp o e i s condi ions in an own o
i m ag eemen . This will depend on he powe and he s eng h ha he ade union has in
he company, as well as i s inancial capaci y.
The e exis wo models o collec i e ba gaining, he Open Shop ypical o Eu opean coun-
ies and he Closed Shop ypical o Anglo-Saxon coun ies. The Open Shop Sys em in Spain,
is cha ac e ised by he esul o he ba gaining a ec ing all he wo ke s ega dless o hei
being a ilia ed o a ade union, unlike he USA, o example, whe e he esul is applied only
o unionised wo ke s; hence he unionisa ion a e in Spain is e y low compa ed wi h he USA
o Canada.
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Ac ually, he e has been some in e na ional e idence o sugges ha he exis ence o a ade
union and po en ially a collec i e ag eemen ha e s a is ically and economically signi ican
posi i e e ec s on he p oduc i i y o he i m [11].
While, he e has been p io li e a u e o suppo such sequence based mainly in he US,
he e a e in e na ional s udies p esen ing e idence ha he e is no uni o m eac ion in all
coun ies. [12], o example, examined he e ec s o unions on i m p oduc i i y and inancial
pe o mance in di e en na ional se ings. He obse ed a nega i e ela ionship o he case o
he US, as in p e ious li e a u e, howe e in he UK he ad e se e ec is e e sed in ecen
yea s, while in Ge many and Japan unions (and appa en ly collec i e ba gaining) ha e a posi-
i e e ec on p oduc i i y and inancial pe o mance. In coun ies wi h s onge ade unions,
high unionisa ion and conside ably o en indus ial ac ion, like in con inen al Eu ope (on
union s eng h in EU see o example he collec i e ba gaining co e age a [13], ailu e o
each a collec i e ag eemen may lead o p olonged s ikes, social un es , employee dissa is ac-
ion, a po en ial all in p oduc i i y and a decline in sha e p ices (e.g. [14], on he impac o
s ikes on s ock alue).
[10] obse ed, h ough a heo e ical model o he Mad id S ock Ma ke , which isk ad e se
in es o s modi y hei po olios when aced wi h he signing o a collec i e i m ag eemen
and his esul is main ained e en in hose companies ha ha e s ipula ed an inc ease in p o-
duc i i y in hei ag eemen . So, he ins i u ional cha ac e is ics o each coun y will play a
decisi e ole in he esul s ob ained.
The p esen a icle means o explo e he e ec o he Labou Re o ms which Spain expe i-
enced be ween he yea s 2010 and 2012 on he sha e p ices o he Mad id S ock Ma ke .
Among he nume ous e o ms in oduced is he lexibili y g an ed o i ms o disengage om
he ag eemen and educe he wo ke s’ sala ies, and he p e alence o i m ag eemen s com-
pa ed o sec o ial ag eemen s.
Gi en ha he Labou Re o ms di ec ly a ec many o he accoun ing and inancial a i-
ables which a e he subjec o analysis and ollow-up by in es o s and analys s, we p opose he
hypo heses o ou wo k supposing ha isk-ad e se in es o s manage hei alue po olio ak-
ing labou ela ions in o accoun . The Labou Re o ms o 2010 o 2012 a e inco po a ed as
nega i e in o ma ion, o posi i e, when he a iables a ec ed in ol e a dec ease, o inc ease,
in i s u u e cash lows. Ou esul s, applying analysis echniques wi h decision ees, whe e we
con ol he e ec o he economic c isis on he ma ke eac ion, endo se ou hypo heses.
The wo k is s uc u ed as ollows. The labou e o ms passed du ing he economic c isis
a e men ioned in de ail. The sample and he me hodology a e p esen ed. The esul s and sensi-
i i y analysis a e se ou , and he conclusions a e d awn.
2. The labou e o ms passed du ing he economic c isis
The labou e o ms whose e ec s on he accoun s o i m esul s and, he eby, on hei p o i -
abili y, a e going o be analysed in his a icle a e hose which we e ca ied ou in he yea s
a e he ou b eak o he c isis. This c isis began wi h he banking c ash de i ed om he mas-
si e di usion o p oduc s s emming om subp ime mo gages in he Uni ed S a es. Mo e spe-
ci ically, he e o ms which we e ca ied ou h ough he ollowing legal ex s a e:
• Royal Dec ee-Law 10/2010, o 16 June, o u gen measu es o he labou e o m o he wo k
ma ke , which es ablishes measu es ha a ec nume ous ma e s o labou egula ion wi h
h ee main aims: a) o educe he duali y o he labou ma ke ; b) o ein o ce he ins u-
men s o in e nal lexibili y in he de elopmen o labou ela ions and, in pa icula , he
measu es o empo a y educed wo king hou s and c) o aise he oppo uni ies o
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unemployed people, paying pa icula a en ion o young people, eo de ing he bonus pol-
icy o do so.
• Royal Dec ee-Law 7/2011, o 10 June, o u gen measu es o he e o m o collec i e ba -
gaining which will subs an ially modi y he s uc u e, compe i ion, con en , e ec , legi i-
macy, p ocessing, applica ion and in e p e a ion o collec i e ag eemen s.
• Royal Dec ee-Law 3/2012, o 10 Feb ua y, o u gen measu es o he e o m o he labou
ma ke -possibly he mos a - eaching legal e o m since he passing o he S a u e o Wo k-
e s o 1980 as he legal changes which i in oduced subs an ially al e ed he basic p inciples
which, un il ha momen , had sus ained he Spanish labou sys em in he a ea o indi idual
and collec i e beha iou s in he labou p ocess and in he sys ems o p o ec ion. This mean
a subs an ial and subs an i e modi ica ion o he ules o he game exis ing ill hen.
The p esen ing o he mo i es o hese h ee legal ex s which enac ed hem assumed wo
main p inciples o s a ing poin s. On he one hand, which o ecupe a e he pa h o economic
g ow h and o de ain he eno mous des uc ion o employmen which he ecession b ough ,
i was indispensable o in e ene as a ma e o p io i y in he labou ma ke . On he o he
hand, he na u e o he p edominan labou model a ha momen was incompa ible wi h he
eco e y and eme ging om he c isis, so i was necessa y o go much mo e in ensely in o he
lines which had ollowed he labou e o ms ca ied ou be o e. These a e all o inspi ed in he
idea ha he Spanish labou ma ke is ex emely igid and ha , he e o e, i is necessa y o
inc ease i s lexibili y, enabling a mo e app op ia e adjus men be ween he supply and he
demand o wo k. In he opinion o he legisla o s his is he only way o achie e a educ ion o
employmen ia gene a ing lowe balanced sala ies and inc ease p oduc i i y.
To his end, he e o ms men ioned p oposed h ee undamen al objec i es and a basic p o-
cedu e o a ain hem. This would be de ined by he singula e ec i eness o he las e o m o
2012.
These aims we e o gain he g ea es possible lexibili y in all he labou ela ions, o educe
he segmen a ion o he ma ke , a ou ing he o a ion and mobili y o he wo k o ce and o
imp o e he wo ke s’ condi ions o employabili y. And he basic p ocedu e which should pe -
mi achie ing hem would be he modi ica ion o he ba gaining p ocedu es, mo e speci ically
he deg ee o cen alisa ion o he collec i e ba gaining sys em and he edundancy cos s and
p ocedu e.
Wage de alua ion could be ul ima ely a ained hanks o es ablishing a new balance o pow-
e s o decision. Tha is o say, a dec ease o he balance p ice -o he sala y- which, acco ding
o he dominan economic heo y, is he essen ial condi ion o an app op ia e adjus men o
be p oduced, and employmen ending o o al employmen be ween he supply and demand
o wo k.
We nex p esen he mos speci ic measu es which we e passed in hese h ee legal e o ms
o la e subs an ia e hei eal e ec s on business beha iou .
U gen measu es o he labou e o m o he wo k ma ke o 2010 (R.D-L.
10/2010)
In his i s e o m he ollowing main e o ms can be dis inguished.
i. Tempo a y con ac ing. Two no el ies a e in oduced. The i s consis s o he es ablishing
in he Wo ke s S a u e o a ime limi a ion o he con ac s o a h ee-yea speci ic wo k o
se ice, ex endable wel e mon hs mo e i his is included in he collec i e ba gaining,
which p e en s hei pe pe ua ion. The second e e s o he payo s be o e inalising he
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con ac s o a speci ic wo k o se ice, which was 8 days pe yea wo ked and is es ablished
as 12 days pe yea wo ked, a ansi ional egime being es ablished.
ii. Redundancy, indi idual o collec i e e mina ion o wo k o objec i e easons. Fou main
ques ions a e adop ed. The i s e e s o he no ice pe iod o cu en losses o hose o e-
seen ha he Wo ke s S a u e main ained a hi y days and which he e o m educes o i -
een days. The second is a echnical ques ion, bu one o unques ionable p ac ical
signi icance, which elimina es he supp ession o nulli y on o mal g ounds. The hi d is
he assuming by he Wages Gua an ee Fund o he amoun o eigh days pe yea wo ked o
he edundancy, p esuming e mina ion o objec i e causes. The ou h, he possibili y o
edundancy o absen eeism o hose wo ke s who a e no a wo k o mo e han 20% o
he wo king days o e wo consecu i e mon hs, o 25% i hese a e ou discon inuous
mon hs wi hin a pe iod o 12 mon hs, whene e he a e age o labou absen eeism in he
i m su passes 2.5%.
iii. Collec i e ag eemen s. The possibili y o no applying he sala y egime es ablished in a
collec i e ag eemen o a wide scope han he i m’s is conside ed i his is in c isis.
i . Wo kday. The possibili y o educing he wo kday up o 70% wi h he consequen sala y
educ ion o economic causes and wi h he igh o unemploymen pay o he hou s
a ec ed.
. Labou in e media ion and empo a y wo k i ms. The igu e o p o i -seeking placemen
agencies is egula ed. These will ac along wi h he public employmen se ice. The es ic-
ions o which empo a y wo k i ms we e subjec o ope a e in speci ic sec o s a e e ised
and he con ac s o aining a e enhanced, wi h he aim o acili a ing access o wo k o
young people, bo h by bonuses and imp o ing hei condi ions.
U gen measu es o he e o m o collec i e ba gaining o 2011 (R.D-L. 7/
2011)
The modi ica ion o he collec i e ba gaining sys em is p oduced ia changes in he ollowing
main aspec s:
i. The s uc u e and compe i ion o collec i e ba gaining. The p e alence o he i m collec i e
ag eemen o e he sec o ial collec i e ag eemen o any a ea is acili a ed, excep he au on-
omous o s a ewide collec i e ag eemen . The possibili y o compe ing wi h a s a ewide sec-
o ial collec i e ag eemen is limi ed o he au onomous sec o ial collec i e ag eemen ,
p o incial ag eemen s now no being included.
ii. The con en and alidi y o collec i e ag eemen s. A minimum pe iod o denounce he col-
lec i e ag eemen and he maximum pe iods o he beginning and he nego ia ion o he
new collec i e ag eemen a e es ablished. The e is also an obliga ion o inco po a e mea-
su es o in e nal lexibili y in he ag eemen s. Binding a bi a ion in he cases o a lack o
ag eemen a e inco po a ed as a subsidia y egula ion.
iii. The legi imisa ion o he nego ia ion o collec i e ag eemen s. The ole o he ade union
sec ions is ein o ced as is hei p io i y o e wo ks councils.
i . In e nal lexibili y. P e alence in he nego ia ion o he ade union sec ions o e uni a y
ep esen a ion and he in oduc ion o he «pe sis en dec ease o he le el o incomes» as a
cause allows he non-applica ion o he sala y egime o eseen in he collec i e ag eemen s
o a wide scope han he i m. A possible disag eemen wi h ega d o he Join
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commission o he ag eemen is pu o wa d. This will ha e a pe iod o se en days o gi e
i s opinion, coun ing om he disc epancy which was p oposed.
U gen measu es o he e o m o he labou ma ke o 2012 (R.D-L 3/
2012)
This e o m included a b oad se o modi ica ions in he ins i u ions o he wo k ma ke
which, as has been said, mean he mos adical change o na u e o he Spanish sys em o
labou ela ions du ing he las hi y yea s. I s main changes a e he ollowing:
i. Collec i e ba gaining. The applica i e p io i y o i m ag eemen s in an ample se o ma e s
is es ablished (basic sala y, supplemen s, complemen s, pay o o e ime o dis ibu ion o
wo k ime). This implies ha hese ag eemen s can modi y wha is o eseen in ag eemen s
o a wide scope wi hou any kind o limi a ion. Likewise, he possibili ies o cu s in pay and
in he es o he wo k condi ions a e acili a ed, in he case o edundancies he causes
which pe mi he cu s being eased. Fu he mo e, in he case o a cu o he non-applica ion
o an ag eemen in o ce, al hough his mus be p oduced in ag eemen wi h he wo ke s, i
such an ag eemen is no eached, upon eques o any o he pa ies (no mally his will be
he i m) a bi age can ake place. Finally, ul ac i i y is elimina ed (which means he ex en-
sion o he ag eemen s ha ha e inalised hei pe iod o alidi y) when a yea has passed
since he ag eemen had been denounced, he alidi y o he ag eemen lapsing in his case
and he wo ke s emaining wi hou an ag eemen when he e does no exis ano he ag ee-
men o a wide scope o applica ion.
ii. Wo k condi ions. The e o m in oduces a e y conside able change: he possibili y o
modi ying he wo k condi ions (including wages), when hese condi ions, including he
wages, a e no es ablished in a collec i e ag eemen bu , o example, in an indi idual con-
ac o ia a collec i e ag eemen o pac di e en om he s a u o y collec i e ag eemen .
I is es ablished ha o do so i will be su icien o he need o modi ying he wo k condi-
ions o be gene ally ela ed wi h compe i i eness, p oduc i i y o echnical o ganisa ion o
o wo k in he i m, wi hou i being necessa y (as es ablished in he p e ious egula ion)
o he modi ica ions o con ibu e o o eseeing a nega i e e olu ion o he i m o o
imp o ing i s si ua ion o pe spec i es.
iii. Redundancy cos and p ocedu e. On he one hand, i educes he compensa ion o un ai
dismissal om 45 days o wages pe yea o se ice wi h a limi o 42 mon hly paymen s o
33 days wi h a limi o 24 mon hly paymen s, hus conside ably dec easing he di e ence
be ween he cos o un ai dismissal, wi hou cause, and ai dismissal o objec i e causes.
On he o he hand, he causes o objec i e dismissal a e e y subs an ially eased, especially
hose which a e economic, as is pe mi ed when he i ms can p esen losses, o simply
expec hem o expe ience an in e annual educ ion o he o dina y incomes o sales du -
ing h ee consecu i e qua e s. And, inally, he obliga ion o he adminis a i e au ho isa-
ion o collec i e dismissals and he paymen by he i m o he p ocedu al sala ies
be ween he momen o no i ica ion o he dismissal and i s cou decision is elimina ed.
i . Con ac ing. A new ype o con ac , in p incipal inde ini e, is in oduced o i ms wi h less
han 50 wo ke s, bu wi h a es pe iod ex ended o a yea , du ing which he wo ke can be
eely dismissed wi hou iscal bonuses being los . On he o he hand, he con ac o
aining and lea ning is eased, allowing successi e con ac s o his ype o he same
wo ke by he same o ano he i m, as well as a pa - ime con ac , doing addi ional o e -
ime o he exis ing ex a hou s being au ho ised.
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The s udy o he impac o hese h ee e o ms on Mad id S ock Ma ke will be he aim o
he es o he a icle.
3. Sample and me hodology
Ou sample co e s i ms quo ed on Mad id S ock Ma ke be ween Janua y 2 2010 and Decem-
be 31 2012. We p oceeded as ollows. Fi s , we ob ained he i ms quo ed on Mad id S ock
Ma ke om he websi e. We conside he da e on which he labou e o m was published in
he BOE as he ze o momen . We check ha his is co ec by conduc ing a da a sea ch in he
economic p ess and he websi e o he Na ional S ock Ma ke Commission (CNMV). We
ound ha he announcemen o he e o m was published on he e y day ha he labou
e o m was published.
Second, we selec ed he leng h o he e en window in o de o es abno mal beha iou in
he e u ns o he sample i ms. Al hough mos in o ma ion is usually quickly inco po a ed
in o s ock p ices, some in o ma ion may some imes leak ou be o e o mal publica ion, o
publica ion may be delayed. Then, we conside ed i e days be o e and a e he ze o momen .
Fi ms which happen o ha e mo e han one ele an announcemen wi hin he e en win-
dow (collec i e ag eemen s, me ge s, spli s, di idend announcemen s. . .) we e excluded om
he sample o a oid any po en ial con using e ec s. The emaining sample a e hese exclu-
sions, consis ed o 61 i ms o 2010, 70 i ms o 2011 and 53 i ms in 2012 o 30 sec o s
acco ding o he wo-digi sec o classi ica ion. The indus ies a e: ade and o he se ices,
o he manu ac u ing indus ies, cemen , glass and cons uc ion ma e ials, inance, anspo
and communica ions, u ili ies and cons uc ion, among o he s.
In addi ion, we gene a ed wo subsamples, one composed o companies only wi h a i m-
le el ag eemen and ano he subsample made up o companies wi h sec o ag eemen .
We wo k wi h h ee e en da es, co esponding o he h ee labou e o ms unde s udy:
Re o m 2010. Royal Dec ee-Law 10/2010, o June 16, on u gen measu es o he e o m o he
labou ma ke . BOE 06/17/2010
Re o m 2011. Royal Dec ee-Law 7/2011, o June 10, on u gen measu es o he e o m o col-
lec i e ba gaining. BOE 06/11/2011
Re o m 2012. Royal Dec ee-Law 3/2012, o Feb ua y 10, on u gen measu es o he e o m o
he labou ma ke . BOE 02/11/2012
The dis ibu ion o he sample among sec o s and yea s is illus a ed in S1 Table. Among
he sec o s, he inancial s ands ou , whe e he e is a g ea e numbe o companies in bo h sub-
samples. In he cons uc ion sec o , he la ges numbe o lis ed companies unde he sec o ial
ag eemen is highligh ed, as well as he ci il enginee ing sec o . Wi h ega d o he subsample
o companies wi h hei own ag eemen , he bulk o he sample is ound among inance com-
panies, me allu gy, manu ac u e o machine y and o he ma e ials, adio and ele ision b oad-
cas ing, and consul ing ac i i ies. The in o ma ion was d awn om he Thomson Da abase.
As al eady men ioned in he in oduc ion, he aim is o explo e whe he he labou e o m
has an impac on a i m’s s ock p ice. To his pu pose E en S udy echnique is used. Fo u -
he in o ma ion on he E en S udy me hodology see [15].
Since s ock p ices e lec he ue alue o a company and change immedia ely in esponse
o any e en ha may po en ially a ec he company’s u u e cash lows, he impac on he co -
po a e alue o a gi en e en can be measu ed by obse ing s ock p ice changes o e a e y
sho ime pe iod a ound he da e o he e en . The a iable is he occu ence o abno mal
e u ns in companies a ound he da e o he e en . In o de o calcula e his, he e u n gi en
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by he ma ke model as no mal will be used.
Ri ¼aiþbiRm þεi ð1Þ
Whe e R
i
is he e u n on company ion day ; R
m
is he e u n on he ma ke po olio on
day ; α
i
is he expec ed e u n on company i, which is independen om he ma ke ; β
i
is he
sensi i i y o he e u n on company i o changes in ma ke e u n; and ε
i
is a andom pe u -
ba ion. The ma ke po olio is ep esen ed by he IBEX35 index.
As occu s in mos s udies on e en s ha a ec se e al companies on he same da e, he e is
an o e lap o e en s in he es ima ion pe iods, so i mus be aken in o accoun ha he esidu-
als ε
i
a e no independen bu a e co ela ed. In addi ion, a equen he e oscedas ici y p ob-
lem can a ise in c oss-sec ional analyses. An app op ia e eg ession model when conside ing
he e oscedas ici y and he con empo a y co ela ion o esiduals is he Seemingly Un ela ed
Reg essions (SUR) model. The e o e, i is impo an o know i he e is a con empo a y co e-
la ion, since i he e is no sepa a e OLS o each equa ion, i is as e icien as SUR. See [16].
Applying he B eusch-Pagan es we ob ain ha he e is a con empo a y co ela ion. This
model p oposes ha he co ela ion o he con empo a y esiduals is di e en om ze o and
he non-con empo a y esiduals a e equal o ze o.
The e o e, ins ead o es ima ing he classic ma ke model o each e en by OLS, we will use
he sys em o Eq (2), es ima ing he coe icien s by GLS. This will allow us o ha e be e es i-
ma ion esul s, aking in o accoun empo al co ela ions and c oss-sec ion he e oscedas ici y.
R1 ¼a1þb1Rm þε1
R2 ¼a2þb2Rm þε2 ð2Þ
Rn ¼anþbnRm þεn
Es ima ing his sys em o equa ions enables calcula ing he daily abno mal e u ns (ARi )
o a news i em om company i:
ARi ¼Ri  ðaiþbiRm Þ ð3Þ
Whe e a
i
and b
i
a e he GLS es ima es ob ained in he eg essions [2] by using a pe iod o
145 days be o e he announcemen . This is an app op ia e pe iod o ime o es ima ing he
pa ame e s acco ding o a ailable empi ical e idence on e en s udy [9]. Abno mal e u ns
om s ocks a e a e aged in a c oss sec ion h oughou each day o he e en window o s udy
window, p oducing he a e age daily abno mal e u ns AR
Conside ing ha he ma ke may an icipa e in o ma ion ega ding he e en o ha delays
may occu in i s announcemen , he e is an e en pe iod o 11 days a ound he da e ha he
labou e o m is published: om day T
1
= -5 o day T
2
= +5. Fo a mo e comp ehensi e analy-
sis, he cumula i e abno mal e u ns CAR (
1
,
2
) we e calcula ed in o de o ind ou he
cumula i e e ec o he e en .
I he labou e o m con eys new in o ma ion o in es o s, he expec ed alue o he abno -
mal e u ns mus be signi ican ly di e en om ze o. In o de o es his hypo hesis, he boo -
s ap echnique was used. An analysis o he e olu ion o abno mal e u ns in he s udy
window indica es ha some o he dis ibu ions a e sligh ly biased and p esen lep oku osis.
The Ja que-Be a es does no alida e he no mal dis ibu ion o he sample and, he e o e,
he p oposed hypo hesis mus be es ed using a non-pa ame ic es . This s udy likewise inco -
po a es a non-pa ame ic es based on he boo s ap me hodology. The es aims a ob aining
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he empi ical dis ibu ion o he a ge a iable and es ing i s signi icance based on he simu-
la ed dis ibu ion. The dis ibu ion o he con en ional s a is ic is simula ed in o de o
ob ain c i ical alues om he simula ed dis ibu ion.
Nex , how a labou e o m may lead o changes o a i m’s sha e p ice was empi ically in es-
iga ed, con olling he possible e ec s ha he coun y’s mac oeconomic si ua ion may ha e,
such as he Risk P emium (PR), he Slope o he So e eign Yield Cu e (PC) and he Ted
Sp ead (TED), di e en mac o a iables ha we in oduce as con ol a iables.
Ri ¼aiþb1iRm þb2iPR þb3iPC þb4iTED þεi ð4Þ
Whe e R
i
is he e u n on company ion day ; R
m
is he e u n on he ma ke (IBEX35) on
day ; α
i
is he expec ed e u n o company i ha is independen o he ma ke ; β
1i
is he sensi-
i i y o he e u n on company i o a ia ions in ma ke e u n; β
2.3,4 i
is he sensi i i y o he
e u n on company i o PR, PC and TED espec i ely, and ε
i
is a andom pe u ba ion.
Spanish Risk P emium (PR)
In e nal Ra e o Re u n (IRR) Spanish 10 yea s bond–IRR Ge man 10 yea s bond o like a io
(IRR Spanish 10 yea s bond/IRR Ge man 10 yea s bond)
Slope o he So e eign Yield Cu e (PC)
In e nal Ra e o Re u n (IRR) Spanish 10 yea s bond–in e es a e h ee-mon h Spanish T ea-
su y bill o like a io.
Ted Sp ead (TED)
The di e ence be ween he h ee-mon h T easu y bill and he h ee-mon h LIBOR based on
US dolla s. In o he wo ds, he TED sp ead is he di e ence be ween he in e es a e on sho -
e m go e nmen deb in he Uni ed S a es and he in e es a e on in e bank loans.
In his way, i was checked whe he any e ec o eac ion ha a ises in he Ma ke is due o
he mac oeconomics ci cums ances o he Ma ke and no o he e en i sel .
An analysis o co a iance be ween he di e en a iables, see S2 Table, shows us he co ela-
ion be ween hem, which leads us o ca y ou di e en models inco po a ing in each one o
hem he di e en a iables c ea ed o con ol he e ec o he economic si ua ion.
Nex , we calcula e he abno mal e u ns o each day o he e en window and accumula ed
in di e en analysis windows.
In S3 Table, we can see daily abno mal e u ns o each day o he e en window o ou
h ee e o ms, con olling he possible e ec s ha he coun y´s mac oeconomic si ua ion may
ha e using he PR, PC and TED a iables.
The i s panel shows he esul s o he 2010 e o m. These esul s indica e ha his e en
has in o ma i e con en o he ma ke as he e a e daily abno mal e u ns signi ican ly di e -
en om ze o. The esul s a e mixed, i we obse e he abno mal daily e u ns o he ma ke
model wi hou con olling he e ec ha he economic si ua ion o ha yea could ha e, we
no e an e a ic beha io in he e en window. The e a e signi ican ly non-ze o nega i e abno -
mal e u ns on day -4, and day +1, and signi ican posi i e e u ns o boo s ap on days -2,
+2, and +4.
I we see he daily abno mal e u ns o he 2010 e o m, inco po a ing he mac o a iables
in o he ma ke model, we obse e a mo e uni o m beha io h oughou he days when he
p esence o posi i e abno mal e u ns signi ican ly di e en om ze o o boo s ap p e ails,
a 5% and 1%, on days -2, +2, +3 and +4 wi h posi i e abno mal e u ns a ound + 0.8%.
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he unions. The esul o he 2010 Re o m only con i ms he end o he labo ma ke in ecen
decades, ha is, gi en he news o lowe labo cos s, he in es o in e p e s highe u u e cash
lows.
I is in ui i e o hink ha a pe son who is willing o wo k a a lowe sala y migh ind a job.
Howe e , he idea ha educing wages will elimina e unemploymen is inco ec , as i is based
on a classic composi ional allacy, jus as he ma ke could expe ience wi h he 2010 e o m. By
educing he labo o ce o he s a us o any commodi y, he alse deduc ion is incu ed ha
wha is ue o a pe son seeking employmen is also ue o all wo ke s aken as a whole.
Business sales depend on wo ke s ha ing enough income o pu chase he goods and se -
ices hey o e , and wages a e he main sou ce o weal h o people. By educing wage cos s,
en ep eneu s will ind no demand o hei p oduc s. Thus, a educ ion in wages can wo sen
he p o i a e and lead o a educ ion in in es men and wo sening unemploymen , we a e
alking abou " he pa adox o cos s". Hence, in he ace o he h ea o ha ing hei weal h
diminished, he sha eholde eac s nega i ely o he 2011 Re o m.
The 2012 Re o m was he mos adical in 30 yea s and he ade unions eplied acco dingly.
In e ms o collec i e ag eemen s and wages, he ade unions we e led o a posi ion o de en-
si e ba gaining while he a i ude o i ms a he ba gaining able was changed. Spain is in he
op-6 coun ies in EU in e ms o indus ial ac ion and p io li e a u e documen s an ad e se
ela ion be ween s ikes and p oduc i i y. In pa icula , he announcemen o he e o m
immedia ely igge ed a eac ion om he ade unions. A endance a he p o es s was e y
signi ican , which he ade unions desc ibed as a show o ‘massi e suppo ’ om he people,
and hey announced an escala ion o he mobilisa ion i he go e nmen did no imp o e i s
o e . These e en s, as well as he announcemen o a gene al s ike, occu ed wi hin he e en
window o he s udy and i can be a gued ha hey would ha e an e ec o in es o s, c ea ing
unce ain y in he ma ke and con ibu ing o po en ially con adic ing obse a ions ha led
o he s a is ically insigni ican esul .
Suppo ing in o ma ion
S1 Table. Sample by sec o and yea .
(DOCX)
S2 Table. Co a iance co ela ion mac o a iables.
(DOCX)
S3 Table. Abno mal daily e u ns.
(DOCX)
S4 Table. Cumula i e abno mal e u ns.
(DOCX)
S5 Table. Daily abno mal e u n and cumula i e abno mal e u n by subsamples.
(DOCX)
S1 Da a.
(RAR)
Au ho Con ibu ions
Concep ualiza ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos.
Da a cu a ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
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Fo mal analysis: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
Funding acquisi ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
In es iga ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
Me hodology: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
P ojec adminis a ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
Resou ces: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
So wa e: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
Supe ision: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche, Joaquina La a ga B iones.
Valida ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
Visualiza ion: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche, Joaquina La a ga B iones.
W i ing – o iginal d a : Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
W i ing – e iew & edi ing: Ana M. Saba e Ma cos, Te esa Dua e A oche.
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