301
Ag icul u al Economics – Czech, 69, 2023 (8): 301–308 O iginal Pape
h ps://doi.o g/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON
© Theau ho s. This wo k islicensed unde aC ea i e Commons A ibu ion-NonComme cial 4.0 In e na ional (CC BY-NC4.0).
Geopoli ical deadlock and phospha e sho all behind he
p ice hike? E idence om Mo occan commodi y ma ke s
Ma ek Vochozka1, S a opluk Janek1*, Lenka Ši áňo á2
1Ins i u e o Business and Technology inČeské Budějo ice, České Budějo ice, Czech Republic
2Facul y o Business and Managemen , B no Uni e si y o Technology, B no, Czech Republic
*Co esponding au ho : s a opluk.janek@mail. s ecb.cz
Ci a ion: Vochozka M., Janek S., Ši áňo á L. (2023): Geopoli ical deadlock and phospha e sho all behind he p ice hike?
E idence om Mo occan commodi y ma ke s. Ag ic. Econ. – Czech, 69: 301–308.
Abs ac : Phospha e e ilise s ank among limi ed con en ional p oduc ion aids, equi ing eco-un iendly mining
me hods. On he o he hand, whea isan indispensable ag icul u al commodi y essen ial in he ood indus y. Fo his
eason, i is app op ia e omoni o he po en ial bi a ia e ela ionship be ween hese commodi ies and o ollow hei
u u e de elopmen closely. The a icle aims oiden i y aco ela ion (Kendall’s au) and causal (G ange causali y es )
be ween he p ice o Mo occan phospha e and whea , applying ec o au o eg ession (VAR). The esul s show amedi-
um- o-s ong co ela ion be ween phospha e and whea , while causal analysis sugges s a ecip ocal ela ionship. The
inal p edic ion indica es he p ice s abili y o Mo occan phospha e and a all inwhea p ices, showing s eady ends
o  he Mo occan phospha e and whea ma ke a ec ed by he ala ming si ua ion inUk aine. The a icle’s d awbacks a e
ana ow ma ke specialisa ion, which igno es o he ag icul u al commodi ies. Ou indings con ibu e ona ional o i-
ceholde s and p o essional public, p i a e and non-p o i ag a ian o ganisa ions. In es o s may bene i om explo ing
u bulen exogenous a iables like ac i ical geopoli ical deadlock inUk aine. The main con ibu ion highligh s he ac
ha he con en ional e ilise and whea ma ke si ua ion appea s obe s able and ee om elemen s o unce ain y.
Keywo ds: G ange causali y; Kendall’s au; Mo occan phospha e; Vec o Au o eg ession Model; whea
Phospho us isessen ial o lush and luxu ian eg-
e a ion, pene a ing he o ganism h ough i s oo s.
Weha e ecen ly seen asho all o  he elemen insoil
ecosys ems, hinde ing heal hy plan g ow h and caus-
ing a global lack o  ood. Fa me s se le he issue
byadding phospho us o e ilise s, some imes each-
ing 80% o  he a io. Al hough he elemen op imally
pene a es he g ound, i seeps h ough unde g ound
wa e and was ewa e , se e ely ha ming he en i on-
men . Fa me s should a oid o e - e ilising o mi i-
ga e ha m ul e ec s and lea n how ouse e ilise s
e icien ly.
Non- enewable phospha e esou ces a e unning
ou , heading o apid deple ion. The s a is ics sugges
165 o195 mil. onnes o p oduc ion pe yea , includ-
ing Mo occo, China and he USA as he leading global
p oduce s. Eu opean s a es ely hea ily on impo s
(Sun e al. 2018; Bogusz 2022; Gadale a e al. 2022).
Jia e al. (2018) poin oeno mous popula ion g ow h
and ollow-up hea y demand o na u al esou ces.
I minimum i ems, like phospho us, en e ag icul u al
p oduc ion, hese meag e esou ces will cause lim-
i ed p oduc ion ou pu s. This p inciple is ypical o
de eloping coun ies. Bu o phospho us addi i es,
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wewould no beable ocul i a e plan s, ege ables and
ui s o ea ing o  u he p ocessing. Jing e al. (2022)
conside phospha e e ilise s a igge mechanism o
as e plan g ow h and nu ien up ake.
Whea , used mainly o u he p ocessing, anks
among essen ial ag icul u al commodi ies on he global
ma ke . Howe e , i s p oduc ion su e s om he lim-
i ed a ailabili y o  phospho us, which disappea s due
o esou ce deple ion om he e ile g ound (Majeed
e al. 2018; Suleman e al. 2022). Whea isalso a i al nu-
ien whose lack leads op olonged s a a ion o local
consume s inmany global egions (Yazbeck e al. 2022).
On op o  he sho all o phospha e-based con en-
ional e ilise s, we mus conside ano he c ucial
ac o – he cu en geopoli ical si ua ion. AsUk aine
anks among he leading global whea p oduce s, he
un esol ed a med con lic h ea ens global commodi y
supplies (Mo aleb e al. 2022). Saadaoui e al. (2022)
obse e aone-way causal ela ionship be ween geopo-
li ical isk and ood p ice. Pe ei a Domingues Ma inho
e al. (2022) include ahec a e whea p o i a e, global
wa ming, and he COVID-19 pandemic aso he ex-
ogenous in luen ial ac o s p o oundly in la ing whea
p ices and o he commodi ies (Abdalla e al. 2023).
The a icle aims oiden i y acausal ela ionship be-
ween he ma ke (commodi y p ice) o Mo occan phos-
pha e and whea . Many economic s udies ha e al eady
co e ed he opic, including Olagunju e al. (2021), who
explo ed he connec ion be ween phospha e e ilise s
and whea p ices, and Co dell and Nese (2014) and
Chowdhu y e al. (2017), who poin odwindling phos-
pha e supplies h ea ening ag icul u al p oduc ion.
To achie e ou goal, we o mula ed hese esea ch
ques ions.
RQ1: Is he e acausal ela ionship be ween Mo occan
phospha e and whea p ice?
Fi s , we mus ind a co ela ion, bu ha is no
enough. Coin eg a ion allows us o assess he in e -
connec ion be ween he commodi ies. Recip ocal ela-
ionships show ha one a iable can p edic he o he .
RQ2: Wha will be he p ice mo emen in he u u e?
The p edic ion is aluable upon con i ming he eci-
p oci y o  he quan i ies. Vochozka e al. (2020) sugges
ap edic ion isuse ul when economic a iables signi i-
can ly co ela e. The compe i i e ad an age will allow
cap u ing he ma ke , aslimi ed esou ces o con en-
ional phospha e e ilise s will likely uel in la ion.
Li e a u e e iew. Phospho us comes om phos-
pha e, occu ing in sedimen a y deposi s o  igneous
o e, mixed wi h alkalic ocks. Quali y phospha e ex ac-
ion in ol es acomplex concen a ion mechanism wi h
se e al (bio)geochemical p ocesses. Sound knowledge
o  phospha e ex ac ion p ocedu es compensa es o
gaps ingeochemis y, mi iga ing he slowdown o ex-
ac ing u u e esou ces (El Bamiki e  al. 2021). Un-
de g ound mining encompasses anelabo a e enginee ’s
sys em and non-linea p ocesses. The la ges Chinese
mining companies esea ch inno a ions o s imula e
ex ac ion, inc easing he coun y’s economic alue and
s eamlining phospha e mining p ocesses inChina (Li
e al. 2021). Mo occo has become he leading phospho-
us p oduce , gene a ing 35 mil. ons ayea (Be oug
e  al. 2021). His o ically, Flo ida is he la ges global
phospha e make . The mining indus y a ec s he ans-
po o  nu ien s om o ganic and ino ganic o ms
o ni ogen and phospho us, d aining mo e han 10%
o phospho us om la ge i e s and ibu a ies du ing
spells o  ain. The p oposal will con ibu e o ecul i a -
ing phospho us inwa e cou ses (Duan e al. 2021).
Al hough phospho us belongs olimi ed esou ces,
he elemen anks second among essen ial plan nu i-
en s, s imula ing c op g ow h, de elopmen and p o-
duc i i y. I s inapp op ia e use could cu global c op
p oduc ion (Bha a e al. 2021). Chowdhu y and Zhang
(2021) sugges anew sys em o e ec i ely using phos-
pho us e ilise s oensu e sus ainable esou ces and
p o ec he en i onmen .
The global ag icul u al sec o is s uggling wi h
alack o phospho us insoil ege a ion. Yang and Yang
(2021) explain he use o i s esidues inmul iple soil
ypes acco ding o speci ic ep oduc ion, sugges ing
a ious me hods o sowing, cul i a ing, e ilising and
emo ing phospho us using phospha e subs i u ion
mic oo ganisms. Wali e al. (2022) analyse limi ed soil
eu ophica ion due o he lack o  phospho us, using
biocha (biomass) om whea s aw.
Many expe s explo e he possibili ies o  enewing
he elemen om unde g ound wa e . Ma oušek e al.
(2020) poin o he inancial bene i s o biocha when
ex ac ing phospho us om was ewa e . Since exis ing
esul s always showed limi ed po en ial o mine al e-
newal (due ohigh cos s), he opic was subjec oex-
ensi e e ision. Anew concep in ol es acos -sa ing
model p oducing biocha om e men a ion emains,
i.e. he mochemical py olysis, ensu ing eco- iendliness
and alow-cos ope a ion. Geissle e al. (2018) empha-
sise anine i able ansi ion o egene a i e ag icul u e.
Swap ading o na u al e ilise s p o ec s he p ice
isk index, asp ice mo emen s canno eac o ola ile
inancial ma ke s. The analysis in ol es a ios and e -
iciencies o changing u ea wi h ammonium phospha e.
The e ilise indexes e lec he US spo p ices o e
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h ps://doi.o g/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON
asho pe iod (Maples e al. 2019). Phospha e esou c-
es a e heading ode eloped coun ies, acco ding o he
geog aphical posi ion o in e na ional businesses. The
me hodology comes om MRIO (Mul i-Regional Inpu
Ou pu ) analysis, aiming oend consume s. Anop i-
mised supply chain will educe ag icul u al cos s and
he isk o eu ophica ion (Yang e al. 2019). The in-
dica o o  he phospha e e ilise demand in ol es
p ice dynamics and esponses ochanges in ime. The
global call o he mine al isinelas ic inp ice o e sho
o long pe iods (Al Rawashdeh 2022).
Economic expe s discuss he complica ed p oduc-
ion, dis ibu ion and consump ion o na u al esou ces,
wa ning abou socio-economic issues in ansdiscipli-
na y p ocesses. While he u n o 2007 and 2008 ma ks
agene al misconcep ion o  he phospho p ice peak, he
span be ween 1983 and 2013 saw an annual inc ease
inex ac ing phospho i es byabou 3.2%. Economis s y
oco ec hese socially ha m ul allacies oinc ease pub-
lic knowledge and awa eness (Scholz and S eine 2022).
De e mining causal ela ionships be ween economic
quan i ies in ol es he con en ional G ange causali y
es (GC). Despi e i s wide applica ion, G osche (2014)
and Wimme e al. (2021) poin o he es ’s inabili y
o assess specula ion on he ag icul u al and ene gy
ma ke s. On he o he hand, Ape gis e al. (2021) e-
cei ed imp essi e esul s using GC o es he connec-
ion be ween economic e iciency and commodi y p ic-
es. Ye e al. (2019) and Ak ildi im e al. (2022) a i ed
a  he same conclusion, obse ing in e ac ions be ween
mac oeconomic quan i ies in China and economic
p o i abili y on u u es in oubled imes, espec i ely.
Asco bebei ia e al. (2022) sugges combining GC wi h
he Kendall’s au co ela ion coe icien when obse -
ing Eu o S oxx Index. Fei e al. (2020) use Kendall’s au
oexplo e he ela ionship be ween commodi y p ices
and inpu s/ou pu s o ca le b eeding.
High-accu acy p edic ion models in ol e a i icial
neu al ne wo ks (ANN) based onphysio-neu ological
p ocesses o e ec i e lea ning and da a p ocessing
(Vochozka e  al. 2021). Sahinli (2021) includes ec-
o au o eg ession asano he p edic ion model when
p edic ing awhea p ice inTu key. Lakkakula (2018)
applies VAR oexplo e in e ela ionships be ween i e
ypes o  e ilise s, indica ing u ea as ac ucial de e mi-
nan inphospha e e ilise p ices.
The Kendall’s au co ela ion coe icien will explain
ou esea ch aims in he i s phase, whe eas he G ang-
e causali y es will complemen VAR in he second
pa . This combina ion will explo e he ela ionship
be ween wo quan i ies and p edic hei mo emen .
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Da a. The p esen ed da a e lec he indexmundi.
com da abase (IndexMundi 2023), comp ising el-
e an in o ma ion om s ock ma ke s, exp essed
inUS dolla s pe nego ia ed on o  he commodi y
(phospha e and whea ), including closing and un-
adjus ed p ices. The da a se ies onMo occan phos-
pha e and whea obse e mon hly pe iods, s a ing
inJanua y 1993 and ending inSep embe 2022. The
se ies in ol es 357 inpu s, yielding ele an s a is i-
cal esul s.
Me hods. Wecons uc ed all models in he Rp o-
g amming language, se ing he signi icance le el
a  0.05. An analysis examining he ela ionship be-
ween he Mo occan phospha e and whea p ice an-
swe s he i s esea ch ques ion, using Kendall’s au
as an e ec i e s a is ical ins umen o anon-pa a-
me ic es .
Al eady included in he VAR, he GC model explo es
he ela ionship be ween Mo occan phospha e and
whea p ice. The i s s ep in ol es VAR e lec ing ime
se ies models, i.e. ec o s o endogenous a iables. The
o mula o VAR isas ollows:
y = A1y –1 + … + Apy –p + CD + u (1)
whe e: y – ec o K × 1 endogenous a iable; u – e o
o  he same dimensions; A1, …, Ap – symbolise K ×

K;
C

–

ma ix o possibly de e minis ic eg esso s on

base
(K

×

M); D – ec o wi h de e minis ic eg esso s
(e.g.

end, cons an e c.).
Add essing S ock and Wa son (2019), wecan analyse
VAR in he Rp og amming language. The analogical
o mula is he same asin equal 1, supplemen ed by he
second obse ed a iable X .
Y = β10 + β11Y –1 + … + β1pY –p + γ11X –1 +
+ γ1pX –p + u1 (2)
X = β20 + β21Y –1 + … + β2pY –p + γ21X –1 +
+ γ2pX –p + u2 (3)
whe e: Y, X – obse ed ec o s o endogenous a iables;
β–i h a iable a ime ; γ – i h a iable in he p e ious
ime s ep (lagged alue).
The p edic ion e lec s en pe iods (da a equency
co esponds o en mon hs), om Oc obe 2022 oJuly
2023. Sc ip s a e illus a ed in Figu es S1–S3 in he
Elec onic Supplemen a y Ma e ial (ESM).
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h ps://doi.o g/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON
RESULTS
Time se ies co ela ion analysis. Weuse he Ken-
dall’s au o apply co ela ion analysis. Table 1 illus-
a es Kendall’s au calcula ions. Gi en he low P- alue
(2×10–16), wecan ejec H0, con i ming aclose ela-
ionship be ween he obse ed economic a iables.
Value 0.52 indica es a medium- o-s ong co ela-
ion, p esuming ha aninc ease inone quan i y ig-
ge s aninc ease in he second a iable and ice e sa
(di ec p opo ion).
VAR model. Vec o au o eg ession has a a ie y
o uses. On op o accu a e p edic ions, he model allows
o coin eg a ion. Thus, weanswe RQ1 and ul il RQ2.
As we p ese e he sys em o  he esea ch ques-
ions, he i s phase in ol es analysing acausal e-
la ionship be ween wo ime se ies, i.e. Mo occan
phospha e and whea , using VAR. The inco po a ed
GC model ou lines he connec ion be ween he p ice
o Mo occan phospha e and whea p ice (Figu e 1).
P- alue < 1.244 × 10–8 ejec sH0, accep ing he al-
e na i e hypo hesis on he dependence o  he whea
p ice onphospha e alues.
Simila ly, weobse e he opposi e e ec when whea
p ices a ec phospha e a es. The ime lags a e se o2
inbo h cases. P- alue < 2.2× 10–16 again ejec sH0,
con i ming he s a is ical ele ance o  H1 when he
whea p ice sways Mo occan phospha e (Figu e 2).
Now wecan use VAR o p edic ing bo h obse ed
quan i ies, whose alues a e illus a ed in Tables 2
(whea ) and 3 (phospha e). Figu e 3 depic s he p edic-
ion, complying wi h en calenda mon hs.
Table 1. Kendall au calcula ions
Co ela ion R(Kendall’s au) P alue
Phospha e/whea 0.52 2.2 × 10–16
Sou ce: au ho ’s own elabo a ion
Figu e 1. G ange causali y es be ween Mo occan phos-
pha e and whea
Sou ce: au ho ’s own elabo a ion
Figu e 2. G ange causali y es be ween whea and
Mo occan phospha e
Sou ce: au ho ’s own elabo a ion
Table 2. Whea mo emen p edic ion om Oc obe 2022
oJuly 2023 using VAR
Da e Fcs Lowe Uppe CI
Oc 1, 2022 423.8928 392.2334 455.5522 31.65944
No 1, 2022 422.4557 372.3569 472.5544 50.09875
Dec 1, 2022 419.1875 355.2780 483.0969 63.90947
Jan 1, 2023 415.5417 340.7007 490.3827 74.84100
Feb 1, 2023 411.8927 328.0232 495.7621 83.86946
Ma 1, 2023 408.3326 316.7757 499.8895 91.55690
Ap 1, 2023 404.8802 306.6341 503.1263 98.24608
May 1, 2023 401.5352 297.3757 505.6948 104.15952
June 1, 2023 398.2929 288.8429 507.7429 109.45001
July 1, 2023 395.1477 280.9201 509.3752 114.22754
VAR – ec o au o eg ession; Fcs – poin o ecas
Sou ce: au ho ’s own elabo a ion
Table 3. P edic ion o  he mo emen o Mo occan phos-
pha e om Oc obe 2022 oJuly 2023 using VAR
Da e Fcs Lowe Uppe CI
Oc 1, 2022 318.1230 287.0188 349.2273 31.10424
No 1, 2022 318.2740 271.6085 364.9395 46.66548
Dec 1, 2022 319.1539 262.0989 376.2089 57.05502
Jan 1, 2023 319.9808 255.4182 384.5434 64.56258
Feb 1, 2023 320.4915 250.0865 390.8965 70.40499
Ma 1, 2023 320.6346 245.3766 395.8926 75.25800
Ap 1, 2023 320.4266 240.9114 399.9419 79.51524
May 1, 2023 319.9021 236.4878 403.3163 83.41425
June 1, 2023 319.0975 231.9972 406.1977 87.10028
July 1, 2023 318.0471 227.3858 408.7083 90.66126
VAR – ec o au o eg ession; Fcs – poin o ecas
Sou ce: au ho ’s own elabo a ion
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h ps://doi.o g/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON
The whea alues show asligh ly downwa d end,
alling by6.7% (based on he i s o he las obse ed
mon h). The lowe p edic ion limi sees amo e d as ic
decline, indica ing adi e ence o 28% be ween he i s
and las moni o ed mon h. The uppe bounda y shows
ag ow h end wi h adi e ence o 11% be ween he
i s and las mon h o  he pe iod.
Based on he da a, he p edic ion end o Mo oc-
can phospha e iscons an , anging om 318 USD· –1
o320 USD· –1. The lowe limi e lec s as eady de-
cline inp ices, indica ing adi e ence o almos 21%
be ween he i s o he las mon h. On he o he hand,
he uppe bounda y shows ap ice inc ease, implying
a ise o abou 17% (408.7 USD· –1) inJuly 2023 com-
pa ed oOc obe 2022.
Figu e 3 shows a ime se ies o Mo occan phospha e
and whea , including a en-mon h p edic ion. The de-
e mina ion coe icien , adjus ed R-squa ed, s e ches
om 0.959103 and 0.9552096, indica ing aquali y s a-
is ical eg essi e appa a us.
DISCUSSION
The a icle aimed oexplo e he ela ionship be ween
he p ice o Mo occan phospha e and whea , ackling
wo esea ch ques ions.
RQ1: Is he e acausal ela ionship be ween Mo-
occan phospha e and whea p ices? Fi s , wepe -
o med a non-pa ame ic co ela ion es based
onKendall’s au o Asco bebei ia e al. (2022), e eal-
ing a medium- o-s ong di ec co ela ion be ween
phospha e and whea p ices ( =0.52). VAR and GC
es s con i med ecip oci y, i.e. he in la iona y e ec
o Mo occan phospha e and whea p ices lows bo h
ways.
RQ2: Wha will be he p ice mo emen in he u-
u e? Acco ding o ap edic ion sugges ed byVochoz-
ka e al. (2020), wecon i med a e y close co ela ion
and causal ela ionship be ween he p ice o Mo occan
phospha e and whea p ice on he commodi y ma ke .
The p e ailing end in whea p ices does no ag ee
2000 2010 2020
Yea
100
200
300
400
500
100
200
300
400
P ice (USD/ onne)
Phospha e VAR(2)
Whea VAR(2)
Figu e 3. VAR p edic ion o Mo occan phospha e and whea
VAR – ec o au o eg ession
Sou ce: au ho ’s own elabo a ion

306
O iginal Pape Ag icul u al Economics – Czech, 69, 2023 (8): 301–308
h ps://doi.o g/10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON
wi h Mo aleb e al. (2022), who wa n abou h ea ened
whea supplies due o he Russian-Uk ainian con lic .
Ra he han ha , ou p edic ion p o es acons an de-
cline ini s p ice. Mo occan phospha e alues dono
cause wo ies ei he . Since he commodi y shows li le
ola ili y, i s a es will oscilla e a ound he inal p ice
om Sep embe 2022 (318 USD· –1).
The esea ch su e s om alimi ed iew o  he ma -
ke and insu icien iden i ica ion o po en ial endog-
enous and exogenous a iables. A u he inques
should measu e he impac o  Mo occan-ex ac ed
phospha es and al e na i e e ilise s (u ea e c.) onag-
icul u al p oduc ion, as hese c op p oduc ion aids
a ec global phospha e p ices (Lakkakula 2018). The
mili a y con lic inUk aine ga e ise omany ac o s in-
ol ed in he whea p ice slump, including unblocking
anspo ou es. Al hough s a is ically s able (p o ed
byP- alues and adjus ed R-squa ed), using only one
model canno yield eliable esul s.
Fu he esea ch should explo e o he impac ul
commodi ies and hei link o Mo occan phospha e
(co n e c.), examining a causal ela ionship be ween
uncon en ional e ilise s (Lakkakulay 2018) and p o-
duc ion ou pu s. S a is ically, he appa a us migh
in ol e o he p edic ion models ocompa e he ou -
comes o highe eliabili y.
Ou indings can appeal o policymake s, includ-
ing na ional poli icians o s a e, p i a e o non-p o i
ag a ian o ganisa ions. The esul s can also besigni i-
can oin es o s, e lec ing bea ish ma ke sen imen s
in ad e se ma ke condi ions (lack o  esou ces and
e hics o  ex ac ion). Al hough seemingly sequen ial
(sho - e m), he indings e lec u bulen imes, add-
ing alue oou conclusions.
CONCLUSION
The s udy aimed o explo e he ela ionship be-
ween he commodi y p ice o Mo occan phospha e
and whea p ices, using VAR as ap edic o . Kendall’s
au and GC non-pa ame ic co ela ion coe icien s
e ealed amedium- o-s ong co ela ion. Acoin e-
g a ion analysis, i.e. aGC model inco po a ed in he
VAR, con i med ecip oci y be ween Mo occan
phospha e and whea p ices. VAR p edic o indica -
ed acons an end inphospha e alues co ela ing
wi h inal alues o  he ime se ies, showing adecline
inwhea a es. The indings e ealed no ela ionship
be ween he geopoli ical deadlock (linked o he wa
in Uk aine), complica ed ex ac ion o  Mo occan
phospha e and po en ial he e oscedas ici y on he
commodi y ma ke s in he i s hal o 2023. We ul-
illed ou esea ch aim.
The a icle su e s om a oo-na ow specialisa-
ion, e lec ing only con en ional e ilise s and whea
p ices. Fu he esea ch migh explo e o he c ops, in-
cluding co n e c. Employing mo e p edic ion models
ocompa e he esul s would also go along way.
A u u e inques migh also obse e he use and link
be ween uncon en ional e ilise s (e.g. u ea) and he
inal p oduc o  con en ional phospha es, including
o he essen ial c ops (e.g. co n).
The luid geopoli ical si ua ion migh make ou ind-
ings appealing ona ional policymake s and s a e, p i-
a e and non-p o i ag a ian o ganisa ions. Anunce ain
exogenous en i onmen should no p e en sha ehold-
e s om in es ing in a ela i ely s eady ma ke .
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Recei ed: Ap il 25, 2023
Accep ed: June 20, 2023
Published online: July 25, 2023