A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
A ailable online 3 May 2023
0169-8095/© 2023 The Au ho (s). Published by Else ie B.V. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-
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In i ed e iew a icle
Assessmen o HARMONIE-AROME in he simula ion o he con ec i e
ac i i y associa ed o a sub opical ansi ion using sa elli e da a
C. Cal o-Sancho
a
, L. Qui i´
an-He n´
andez
a
, P. Bolgiani
b
, J.J. Gonz´
alez-Alem´
an
c
,
D. San os-Mu˜
noz
d
, M.L. Ma ín
a
,
e
,
*
a
Depa men o Applied Ma hema ics, Facul y o Compu e Enginee ing, Uni e si y o Valladolid, Sego ia, Spain
b
Depa men o Ea h Physics and As ophysics, Facul y o Physics, Complu ense Uni e si y o Mad id, Mad id, Spain
c
Agencia Es a al de Me eo ología (AEMET), Depa men o De elopmen and Applica ions, Mad id, Spain
d
Danma ks Me eo ologiske Ins i u . Denma k
e
Ins i u e o In e disciplina y Ma hema ics (IMI), Complu ense Uni e si y o Mad id, Mad id, Spain.
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Sub opical ansi ion
Spa ial e i ica ion
SAL objec -based me hod
FSS objec i e- obus neighbo hood e i ica ion
echnique
HARMONIE-AROME
ABSTRACT
Sub opical ansi ion e en s (STT) a e a challenge o o ecas ing and esea ch due o he hyb id cha ac e is ics
hey gi e o he cyclones. The abili y and skill ulness o he HARMONIE-AROME model o ep oduce he cloud
s uc u e and con ec ion associa ed o he Oc obe 2014 STT is he e e alua ed. B igh ness empe a u e, cloud
op heigh and accumula ed p ecipi a ion a e assessed agains sa elli e da a using adi ional skill sco es and
objec -based echniques speci ic o o ecas ing spa ial e alua ion. The esul s p esen di e ences in he simu-
la ion o he cyclone be ween he pe iods be o e and a e he ansi ion. They also show a e y good pe o -
mance o he model in he loca ion o he e en s and a good simula ion o he in ensi y o he a iables. The
pe o mance is sub-op imal o he es ima ion o he sizes o he con ec i e objec s. B igh ness empe a u e and
cloud op heigh s yield e y good esul s in gene al, wi h a sligh o e es ima ion in bo h cases. Howe e , he
model s uggles o cap u e he accumula ed p ecipi a ion. The e is sca ce wo k e alua ing he HARMONIE-
AROME model in his ype o e en s; ne e heless, he esul s a e in line wi h hose p oduced by he simula-
ions wi h o he nume ical models. The o e all pe o mance o he model is e y adequa e, al hough i migh be
hinde ed by he in e nal s abili y o he model p oduced by he deep-con ec ion compu a ion.
1. In oduc ion
A cyclone ansi ion is a p ocess in which a opical o ex a opical
cyclone has a g adual dynamic and he modynamic ans o ma ion o a
di e en ype o cyclone. This p ocess is e iden in he cyclone’s co e
dynamics and i s on al cha ac e is ics (Ga de e al., 2010). The concep
o ansi ion app ecia es ha he e a e no physical cons ain s in he ee
a mosphe e o p e en a gi en ype o cyclone om con e ing in o a
di e en ype o om ha ing hyb id cha ac e is ics (Ga de e al., 2010;
Gonz´
alez Alem´
an, 2018). The e a e mainly wo ypes o cyclone an-
si ions: ex a opical ansi ion (ET) and opical ansi ion (TT). An ET
(Jones e al., 2003; E ans e al., 2017) is a p ocess by which a opical
cyclone loses i s wa m-co e and symme ic na u e and g adually ac-
qui es he cha ac e is ics ypical o cold-co e asymme ical cyclones. A
opical ansi ion (TT) is he p ocess whe eby a ba oclinic, high- o-
mode a e e ical wind shea , ex a opical o sub opical cyclone is
ans o med in o a wa m-co e, low e ical wind shea , opical cyclone
(Da is and Bosa , 2003, 2004). A TT p ocess occu s when ex a opical
p ecu so s associa ed wi h an uppe - oposphe ic dis u bance o a ba -
oclinic cyclone (among o he possible dis u bances), de elops in o a
opical cyclone (Gala neau e al., 2015).
Some sys ems can hold hyb id cha ac e is ics, wi h opical and
ex a opical ea u es (E ans and Guisha d, 2009), e ol ing in a “ne e -
ending TT p ocess” which does no p oduce a pu e ype o cyclone.
Wi hin his kind o sys ems, he sub opical cyclones (STC) a e s ill
conside ed a challenge o me eo ological o ecas e s and esea che s
due o hei complex dynamics and apid in ensi ica ion p ocess.
Consequen ly, hei impac s a e qui e ha m ul, simila o hose caused
by a opical s o m o e en a hu icane (E ans and Guisha d, 2009;
Wang and Wu, 2004). STCs a e low p essu e sys ems wi h bo h opical
and ex a opical cha ac e is ics ha de elop wi h ela i ely shallow-
weak ba oclinici y in jux aposi ion wi h diaba ic p ocesses (Ha ,
* Co esponding au ho a : Depa men o Applied Ma hema ics, Facul y o Compu e Enginee ing, Uni e si y o Valladolid, Sego ia, Spain.
E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (M.L. Ma ín).
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
A mosphe ic Resea ch
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/a mos es
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.a mos es.2023.106794
Recei ed 10 Feb ua y 2023; Recei ed in e ised o m 21 Ap il 2023; Accep ed 2 May 2023
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
2
2003; E ans and Guisha d, 2009; Da is, 2010). They ha e hyb id
he mal s uc u es which can mainly be desc ibed by cold
uppe - oposphe ic and wa m lowe - oposphe ic he mal anomalies.
The e o e, a cyclone becomes a STC when i s on s a e pa ially an-
ished, he con ec ion a ound he su ace low inc eases and he sys em
sha es he modynamic s uc u es. STCs ha e been obse ed du ing he
ea ly s ages o hu icanes o opical s o ms ha , in some cases, we e
pa o a TT p ocess (Da is and Bosa , 2004). Fo ins ance, hu icanes
Del a (2005), and Leslie (2018) acqui ed a sub opical na u e a some
poin du ing hei TT (Be en e al., 2008; S ewa d, 2018). The objec o
he cu en su ey is a STC eme ged om an ex a opical cyclone ha
had ea lie de eloped om a la ge Rossby wa e. Subsequen ly, he
cyclone expe ienced a low cu -o p ocess and la e isola ion (Qui-
i´
an-He n´
andez e al., 2016). Since he STC did no e ol e in o a opical
cyclone, i jus wen h ough wha is known as a sub opical ansi ion
(STT).
S udies ocusing on STT e en s ha e been ca ied ou in di e en
pa s o he globe. STC Ani a, which almos acqui ed hu icane ca ego y,
was e alua ed in he Sou h A lan ic Ocean (Dias Pin o e al., 2013). In
he No h A lan ic Ocean, Gonz´
alez-Alem´
an e al. (2015) analyzed
hu icanes Vince and Del a which we e iden i ied as STCs in hei ea ly
s ages. In addi ion, due o hei pa icula cha ac e is ics, he e has been
an inc ease in he numbe o s udies conce ning STTs, which has led o
he de elopmen o nume ous STC clima ologies (Ca icchia e al., 2019;
E ans and Guisha d, 2009; E ans and B aun, 2012; Gonz´
alez-Alem´
an
e al., 2015; Gonz´
alez-Alem´
an e al., 2018). In ac , due o he subs an ial
ela ion be ween he STC s eng h and he diaba ic p ocesses de eloped
by hese sys ems o e he ocean (E ans and Guisha d, 2009; Gonz´
alez-
Alem´
an e al., 2015), and conside ing he impo ance o clima e change,
he e is a g owing in e es conce ning he no hwa d de ia ion o hei
ajec o ies and possible impac s o e wes e n Eu ope (Gonz´
alez-
Alem´
an e al., 2018).
This pape analyzes he con ec ion associa ed o a STT e en
occu ed in Oc obe 2014. The sys em e ol ed om Oc obe 17 h o
Oc obe 22nd, wi h he ansi ion ime a ound 06:00 UTC on Oc obe
20 h. The e en made land all on he Cana y Islands, causing wide-
sp ead economic and social damage mainly due o s ong winds and
in ense p ecipi a ion. Mos o he impac s a ec ed he me opoli an a ea
o San a C uz de Tene i e, wi h a leas one deceased pe son, nume ous
loodings, landslides, ligh cancella ions, and i es p o oked by elec-
ical s o ms a ound he island. Qui i´
an-He n´
andez e al. (2016) pe -
o med a synop ic and mesoscale analysis o his e en which was inally
included in he STC clima ology o he Eas e n No h A lan ic (ENA)
c ea ed by Gonz´
alez-Alem´
an e al. (2015). In Qui i´
an-He n´
andez e al.
(2021), he same e en was analyzed by means o wo high- esolu ion
nume ical wea he p edic ion (NWP) models, he Wea he Resea ch
and Fo ecas ing (WRF) and he HARMONIE-AROME model, being his
he i s ime he la e was used o simula e a STT e en . A local ali-
da ion h ough se e al obse a ions (ai po s METAR and soundings)
was ca ied ou . As a i s app oach o he use o sa elli e da a, he
b igh ness empe a u e (BT) p oduc was e alua ed om a isual poin
o iew and on a e age using a se o adi ional skill sco es.
In he cu en s udy, he analysis o he Oc obe 2014 STT e en is
ex ended o pe o m a mo e comple e alida ion o he HARMONIE-
AROME abili y and e ec i eness in simula ing STTs e en s om a
spa ial pe spec i e. To his end, se e al sa elli e da a (BT, cloud op
heigh and p ecipi a ion) a e spa ially compa ed o he model simula-
ions. The s udy is di ided in o wo speci ic pe iods: he p e-STT pe iod,
when he cyclone is pu ely ex a opical, and he pos -STT pe iod, when
he cyclone acqui es sub opical cha ac e is ics. The sa elli e da ase s
a e spa ially compa ed o he HARMONIE-AROME esul s, alida ing
he simula ions h ough se e al skill sco es spa ially calcula ed o gi e a
gene al idea o he model’s abili y. Fu he mo e, objec -o ien ed me ics
a e also used o e alua e he model skill.
This pape is o ganized as ollows: da ase s and me hodology a e
p esen ed in Sec ion 2. Sec ion 3 includes he esul s and discussion o
he spa ial alida ion. Finally, he majo conclusions a e summa ized in
Sec ion 4.
2. Da a and me hodology
2.1. Nume ical wea he p edic ion model
Se e al simula ions o he Oc obe 2014 STT e en a e ca ied ou
using he HARMONIE-AROME model (Beng sson e al., 2017). This is a
limi ed-a ea high- esolu ion con ec ion-pe mi ing model, which uses a
non-hyd os a ic spec al dynamical co e wi h a semi-Lag angian and
semi-implici disc e iza ion o he equa ions. The ini ial and bounda y
condi ions a e ob ained om he ECMWF In eg a ed Fo ecas ing Sys em
(IFS) analysis o he Na ional Me eo ological A chi al and Re ie al
Sys em (MARS) wi h a T1279 spec al solu ion e e y 6 h.
The model HARMONIE-AROME con igu a ion (cycle 40h1.1.1) is
simila o he one used by Qui i´
an-He n´
andez e al. (2021) wi h a single
domain o 2.5 km g id esolu ion and 65 hyb id sigma-p essu e le els.
The se o physics pa ame e iza ion schemes used is he same as he
AROME-F ance model (Sei y e al., 2011). The mos ema kable a e: Fo
sho wa e adia ion, he Mo c e e scheme (Sei y e al., 2011; Beng sson
e al., 2017). Mos o he ICE-3 package (Lascaux e al., 2006) is applied
o mic ophysics. The su ace pa ame e iza ion is he SURFEX scheme
(Masson e al., 2013), which is composed o se e al physical models o
land su ace, ci ies, and lakes. Fo shallow con ec ion pa ame iza ion,
he EDMFm scheme is applied (de Rooy, 2014; Beng sson e al., 2017),
which uses a dual low-mass app oach capable o dis inguishing bo h, a
d y and we upd a s. Finally, o u bulence pa ame e iza ion, he
HARATU scheme (Beng sson e al., 2017) is used. The simula ion is
pe o med o 120 h, wi h a empo al ou pu o 3 h, allowing a spin-up
ime o 12 h. I is hen di ed in o p e-STT, 10 ime-s eps om 19 h a
0000 UTC o 20 h a 0600 UTC, and pos -STT, 28 ime-s eps om 20 h a
0600 UTC o he 23 d a 1800 UTC.
2.2. Obse a ional da ase s
As cyclones usually de elop o e oceanic a eas, a mosphe ic obse -
a ions and measu emen s a e o en sca ce. E en when ins umen s a e
in he a ea, he in ensi y o he cyclone i sel can cause he equipmen o
become inope a i e. Tha is he eason why sa elli e p oduc s become
essen ial when e alua ing model simula ions, as hey a e some imes he
only sou ce o obse a ions. In his s udy we use h ee di e en sa elli e
p oduc s o e alua e he abili y o he HARMONIE-AROME model o
simula e he deep-mois con ec ion associa ed o wo di e en s ages o
a STT cyclone, diagnosing he posi ion and heigh o con ec i e clouds
and p ecipi a ion.
The spinning enhanced isible and in a ed image (SEVIRI) is he
main ins umen o he Me eosa second gene a ion (MSG) geos a iona y
sa elli es. SEVIRI p o ides image da a in ou isible and nea -in a ed
channels and eigh in a ed (IR) channels ( anging om 3.9 o 13.4
μ
m), p o iding con inuous p ecise da a h oughou he a mosphe e. This
is usually used o enhance he quali y o he ini ial and bounda y con-
di ions o NWP models (Pas e nak e al., 1994). The eigh IR channels,
loca ed in he he mal egion, p o ide cloud, land, and sea su ace
empe a u e da a. Wi h a empo al esolu ion o 15 min, he ho izon al
esolu ion o he s anda d channels is 5 km, excep o he high-
esolu ion isible channel which has a sampling dis ance o 1 km a
he nadi .
One o he MSG-SEVIRI p oduc s used in his s udy o alida e he
HARMONIE-AROME ou pu s is he BT ield. Acco ding o Bo mann e al.
(2014) and O kin e al. (2009), he app op ia e channels o iden i y he
op cloud co e and su ace empe a u es a e he 8.7
μ
m, 10.8
μ
m, and
12.0
μ
m IR channels. Mo eo e , he 10.8
μ
m and 12.0
μ
m IR channels
a e conside ed o be especially sensi i e o he exis ence o clouds
(Zinge le, 2005; Bo mann e al., 2014; Mon ejo, 2016). Fu he mo e,
acco ding o Che allie and Kelly (2002), all hese men ioned IR
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
3
channels a e pa icula ly accu a e in de ec ing he cloud e ical dis-
ibu ion and o he ields, such as empe a u e o emissi i y. Qui-
i´
an-He n´
andez e al. (2021) and Díaz-Fe n´
andez e al. (2022) use he
10.8
μ
m long-wa e IR channel in sub opical cyclones and moun ain
wa es s udies demons a ing i s alue as obse a ional da a o alida e
nume ical simula ions. Acco ding o such s udies, he 10.8
μ
m
long-wa e IR channel is selec ed in his s udy as obse a ional da a.
Ano he sa elli e a iable used in he alida ion is he cloud op
heigh (CTH). This has been aken om he Cloud Top Tempe a u e and
Heigh (CTTH) p oduc de eloped by he Nowcas ing Sa elli e Appli-
ca ion Facili ies (NWC-SAF) g oup, led by he Spanish Me eo ological
Agency wi hin he EUMETSAT. To compu e he CTTH p oduc he 6.2,
7.0, and 7.3
μ
m sa elli e adiances and he 10.8 and 12.0
μ
m sa elli e BT
a e needed. Fu he mo e, he p ocedu e o compu ing he CTH will
depend on he ca ego y o he cloud, i.e., low o middle-le el hick
clouds, uppe -le el hick clouds, o uppe -le el semi- anspa en clouds
(NWC-SAF, 2023).
Finally, p ecipi a ion is one o he mos impo an e ec s o his ype
o sys em, so imp o ing ain all p edic ion using me eo ological models
is needed. The In eg a ed Mul i-Sa elli e Re ie als o he Global P e-
cipi a ion Mission (IMERG; Hou e al., 2014;Hu man e al., 2015;
Sko onick-Jackson e al., 2017) is an algo i hm de eloped by NASA o
es ima e he accumula ed p ecipi a ion in mos pa s o he globe by
combining in o ma ion om he NASA sa elli e cons ella ion (Tan e al.,
2017). In he cu en s udy, he IMERG-F Le el 3 (Ve sion 5) p oduc has
been used o analyze he accumula ed p ecipi a ion in he s udy a ea
wi h a spa ial esolu ion o 0.1 ×0.1◦e e y 30 min (NASA, 2023). I
mus be no ed ha , un o una ely, he e is e y sca ce li e a u e abou
he e alua ion o his a iable wi h he HARMONIE-AROME simula ions
o a p ope discussion, hus we will eso mainly o s udies made wi h
he WRF model.
2.3. Me hodology
Se e al skill sco es a e used o e alua e he model simula ions
agains he sa elli e obse a ions. The spa ial alida ion is assessed
calcula ing he skill sco es o each g id poin o he domain, along he
empo al dimension, o he pe iod analyzed. The esul s a e e alua ed
in p e-STT and pos -STT pe iods. The skill sco es used in his s udy
consis o ela i e bias (he ea e BIAS), oo mean squa e e o (RMSE),
and s anda d de ia ion (STD).
In addi ion o hese, he SAL (S uc u e, Ampli ude, Loca ion) objec -
based me ic is also assessed (We nli e al., 2009). This me hod was
de eloped o quan i y he model accu acy on spa ial dis ibu ion, in-
ensi y, and loca ion o p ecipi a ion objec s in quan i a i e p ecipi a-
ion o ecas s (Ebe and McB ide, 2000; Da is e al., 2006; F üh e al.,
2007). I has been p o en use ul in he e alua ion o e en s in Eu ope, by
Zimme e al. (2008) in sou he n Ge many and Jenkne (2008) in
Swi ze land. We nli e al. (2009) applied he me ic o se e al quan i-
a i e p ecipi a ion o ecas cases in he Uni ed S a es showing good
esul s o he p ecipi a ion in ensi y and loca ion. They also p o ed ha
SAL is usually mo e accu a e han he adi ional skill sco es when
e alua ing se e e e en s. F üh e al. (2007) applied SAL o e alua e he
accu acy o p ecipi a ion o ecas s gene a ed by local NWPs and sa el-
li es. C ocke and Mi e maie (2013) demons a ed ha SAL can show
he abili y o a model o esol e cloud ee a eas by combining he
e alua ion o he en i e domain wi h he e alua ion o indi idual ob-
jec s. The e o e, he applica ion o SAL appea s o be pa icula ly use ul
o he alida ion o he cloud dis ibu ion and, as such, i is applied he e
o he BT, CTH and IMERG ields.
The SAL me ic is compu ed independen ly o S uc u e, Ampli ude,
and Loca ion o he ield analyzed, and he esul s show de ia ion om
he obse ed objec . The s uc u e and ampli ude alues ange om −2
o +2, wi h a null alue indica ing a pe ec simula ion. While he
s uc u e, depic ed along he x-axis, desc ibes he objec ’s size and
shape, he ampli ude, depic ed along he y-axis, p o ides in o ma ion on
he in ensi y o he ield analyzed. The loca ion alues ange om 0 o
+2, being ze o he ideal, and is p esen ed in a colo code. I quan i ies
he displacemen o he o ecas ed objec in ela ion o he obse a ion,
conside ing he cen e o mass o each. To de ine each objec , a h eshold
mus be de ined o he a iable used. In his s udy, he h esholds used
a e: Fo he BT, 250 K, 240 K, 230 K and 220 K. Fo he CTH, 5000 m,
6000 m, 7000 m and 8000 m. Fo he IMERG, 25 mm, 30 mm, 35 mm
and 40 mm.
Finally, he F ac ion Skill Sco e (FSS) is an objec i e- obus neigh-
bo hood e i ica ion echnique which is less sensi i e o spa ial e o s
han adi ional skill sco es. The FSS measu es how he o ecas skill
a ies wi h spa ial scale (Robe s and Lean, 2008; Robe s, 2008; Wol
e al., 2014; Sokol e al., 2022), being less sensi i e o small-scale o
displacemen e o s. I is de ined as a a ia ion o he B ie Skill Sco e
(B ie , 1950), and i can be conside ed as a Mean Squa ed E o
compu ed ela i e o a low-skill e e ence o ecas (Robe s and Lean,
2008). This a oids he high dependency on he equency o he e en .
The FSS alues ange om 0 o 1, wi h 1 deno ing he mos accu a e
pe o mance. The sco e depends on he sizes o he selec ed squa es o
windows (deno ed as scales in he igu es) and on he h eshold alues
ha a e used o calcula e ac ional co e age. Thus, FSS alues a e la ge
as he domain window scale inc eases, which implies ha lowe FSS
alues a e ob ained wi h high- esolu ion NWP models (Ebe , 2009). In
he cu en pape , simila SAL h esholds a e applied in FSS esul s.
3. Resul s and discussion
In his sec ion, he BT, CTH, and IMERG ields a e used o e alua e
he HARMONIE-AROME simula ions o he Oc obe 2014 STT e en . To
his end, he esul s o a o emen ioned skill sco es as well as he SAL and
FSS me ics a e p esen ed. Fo he sake o simplici y, he analysis is
based in wo main a eas, clea ly seen in Fig. 1a: he co e o he cyclone,
comp ising om 24◦W o 18◦W and om 30◦N o 38◦N, and he
associa ed on al sys em, eas o he co e.
3.1. P e-STT esul s
To show a gene al beha io o he BT ield, he BT mean con igu a-
ion is depic ed. The analysis o he BT a e age esul s p e ious o he
ansi ion ime o he sys em (Fig. 1a, d) shows ha he on al s uc u e
o he cyclone is ep oduced by he model o an adequa e ex en , p e-
sen ing a good loca ion o he sys em. Ne e heless, he HARMONIE-
AROME model p oduces an o e es ima ion o he BT. This can be
app ecia ed in he whole domain; howe e , is mos no able o e he
cyclone co e whe e he sa elli e shows a la ge a ea o 243 K and 233 K
clouds, no h and wes o he cen e , which he model ails o simula e.
This o e es ima ion o BT may be pa ly ela ed o he in ense con ec-
i e p ocesses aking place du ing he sys em de elopmen (Zhang e al.,
2007; Weisman e al., 2008; Uboldi and T e isan, 2015). Rega ding he
o e es ima ion in he su ounding a eas o he cyclone, a simila wa m
bias is also no iced in Qui i´
an-He n´
andez e al. (2021). The e alua ion o
he STD o BT (Fig. 1g, j) p esen s a e y simila image o he sa elli e
and he model, p oducing e y low alues. Howe e , some di e ences
can be no ed in he sys em shape, as he model shows a less symme ical
and mo e sca e ed s uc u e; i could be said ha he model simula es a
sys em wi h mo e ex a opical cha ac e is ics.
The a e age o CTH o he p e-STT pe iod (Fig. 1b, e) mus be
e alua ed wi h ca e. The sa elli e esul s show ha he p oduc does no
ully ep oduce he cloudiness shown by he BT, e iden in he absence
o op heigh s o all he low-le el clouds su ounding he co e o he
cyclone, a ound 273 K o 253 K (Fig. 1a). On he o he hand, some noise
can be seen in he CTHs, as made ob ious by he 8000 m ops nea he
Po uguese coas . Howe e , his is di ec ly p oduced by he model and
he sou ce has no been ound, no o he au ho s ha e epo ed any hing
like his. Ha ing his been no ed, he esul s p esen a beha io simila o
he BT o he co e o he cyclone, wi h he model unde es ima ing he
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
4
numbe o clouds mainly o he no h and wes o he cen e . The CTH is
la gely o e es ima ed in he on al pa o he sys em, wes o he co e,
p esen ing he model 12,000 m ops whe e he sa elli e shows 8000 and
9000 m. The STD esul s o he CTH (Fig. 1 h, k) a e clea ly highe o
he HARMONIE-AROME han o he sa elli e. Ne e heless, he esul s
alues a e low and ela i ely homogeneous in each domain.
The accumula ed p ecipi a ion a e age esul s (Fig. 1c, ) p esen
some unde es ima ion by he model. As a o emen ioned, he e is e y
sca ce li e a u e abou he e alua ion o his a iable wi h he
HARMONIE-AROME, ne e heless, hese esul s a e cong uen wi h
hose o Ko e al. (2020), who used he Hu icane WRF model o simula e
Hu icane Ha ey. Thei esul s showed ha he model adequa ely e-
p oduces he se e e p ecipi a ion a eas bu unde es ima es mode a e
p ecipi a ion, e en i he p ecipi a ion pa e n o he hu icane’s ou e
band was spa ially well localized. Focusing on he co e o he sys em,
HARMONIE-AROME p oduces a hinne band o p ecipi a ion han he
obse a ion; i places he maximum p ecipi a ion alues sligh ly o he
eas and ails o cap u e he p ecipi a ion o he no h and no h-wes o
he co e, c ea ing a s eepe g adien o p ecipi a ion om he cen e o
he ou e sys em. This is cong uen wi h he BT esul s. When he on al
sys em eas o he co e is e alua ed, he e is a la ge unde es ima ion in
a ea by he model; howe e , his accumula es much mo e p ecipi a ion
han wha is obse ed in he same a ea. The STD (Fig. 1i, l) p esen s e y
low alues and ep oduces an e ec al eady isible in he accumula ed
p ecipi a ion; while he sa elli e depic s a di used dis ibu ion o STD,
he model shows sha pe and less ealis ic alues.
I mus be no ed ha p ecipi a ion is a a iable which s ill holds a
la ge unce ain y. To he au ho s’ knowledge, he e a e no s udies ha
e alua e HARMONIE-AROME agains he IMERG p oduc . Ne e heless,
he e is no ag eemen wi h o he limi ed-a ea high- esolu ion models.
Acco ding o Zhang e al. (2018), p ecipi a ion esul s in WRF simula-
ions a e independen o he physics pa ame e iza ion and g id esolu-
ion. O he s udies (Pie i e al., 2015; O e al., 2017; Ma ínez-Cas o
e al., 2019) conclude ha he e is an in insic ela ion be ween he WRF
spa ial esolu ion o mic ophysics pa ame e iza ion and he p ecipi a-
ion simula ion. E en obse a ion is subjec o discussion; acco ding o
se e al au ho s (Maggioni e al., 2016; Khan e al., 2016), he accu acy
o sa elli e-based p ecipi a ion p oduc s a ies depending on he egion
and season obse ed. Some esul s show ha IMERG ypically un-
de es ima es se e e p ecipi a ion du ing he wa m seasons (Ko e al.,
2020; Cui e al., 2020), while o he conclude ha sa elli e-based p od-
uc s exhibi high p ecision du ing he wa m seasons (Zhang e al., 2018)
Fig. 1. a), b), c) MSG-SEVIRI mean; d), e), ) HARMONIE-AROME mean; g), h), i) MSG-SEVIRI s anda d de ia ion; j), k), l) HARMONIE-AROME s anda d de ia ion
o BT (K; le column), CTH (m; cen e column) and accumula ed p ecipi a ion (mm; igh column) du ing he p e-STT pe iod.
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
5
bu end o o e es ima e du ing he cold seasons. A he same ime,
model-based p oduc s yield be e esul s in he cold seasons, as
desc ibed by Khan e al. (2016) and Maggioni e al. (2016). Acco ding o
hese au ho s, he cold season e alua ed in his wo k (Oc obe 2014)
yields an excellen pe o mance by he models agains he IMERG a he
ep oduc ion o accumula ed p ecipi a ion. This would be in con a-
dic ion wi h he esul s shown in Fig. 1.
Fig. 2 shows he spa ial BIAS compu ed o he BT, CTH, and accu-
mula ed p ecipi a ion be o e he ansi ion ime. The esul s o he BT
(Fig. 2a) p esen a la ge o e es ima ion o mos o he domain, wi h a
no able unde es ima ion whe e he model simula es he majo clus e o
clouds in he co e o he cyclone. This would indica e ha he model
ends o gene a e lowe clouds in gene al bu highe clouds o deep-
con ec ion. These esul s ag ee wi h he a e age bias ob ained by
Qui i´
an-He n´
andez e al. (2021), whe e ewe han obse ed uppe -le el
clouds we e simula ed by he WRF and HARMONIE-AROME models,
esul ing in a la ge quan i y o low-le el clouds. Also, he wa m BIAS
o he BT is suppo ed by he compu a ion o he spa ial RMSE (no
shown), which shows high RMSE alues in he co esponding posi i e
BIAS a eas. Hende son e al. (2021) analyze a case s udy o con ec ion
ini ia ion using h ee bulk cloud mic ophysics schemes (Mo ison,
Thomson and WDM6) in he WRF model ob aining nega i e bias in BTs
associa ed wi h cloud ops. In hei s udy, when he Mo ison scheme is
used, a highe ac ion o con ec ion occu s o BT nea 260 K, whe eas
he WDM6 and Thompson schemes simula e a highe ac ion o cloud
ops colde han he obse ed by he GOES-16 image y. Cold biases o
deep con ec ion a e la ges in he Mo ison and Thomson schemes wi h
he coldes bias o BTs wi h 240 K as mo e equen alue. G i in e al.
(2017) ound a simila beha io when assessing ou pu om he High-
Resolu ion Rapid Re esh model in di e en con ec ion modes.
Al hough he HARMONIE-AROME model uses he ICE-3 scheme o
mic ophysics, a di e en scheme om he Hende son e al. s udy, he BT
show simila pe o mance wi h cold bias (Fig. 2a) associa ed o coldes
cloud ops.
The BIAS esul s o he CTH (Fig. 2b) also con i m wha was
men ioned o he a e age alues; he model unde es ima es he heigh s
o he no h and wes o he co e, while o e es ima ing he heigh s on
he on al sys em. In ag eemen wi h he BIAS o he BT, an o e -
es ima ion o he CTH is gene a ed o he clus e o clouds simula ed in
he co e. The RMSE esul s (no shown) yield sligh ly highe alues
loca ed o he no h o he cyclone co esponding o he posi i e BIAS
depic ed in such zone (Fig. 2b), and so, o he o e es ima ion shown in
he spa ial mean esul s (Fig. 1e). Finally, he BIAS esul s o he
accumula ed p ecipi a ion (Fig. 2c) highligh he ac ha , whe e he
model simula es clouds, he p ecipi a ion is o e es ima ed, as seen in he
a e age alues. This is in consonance wi h he RMSE alues (no shown).
The SAL is compu ed o he BT simula ions by HARMONIE-AROME
wi h ou di e en h esholds (Fig. 3a). The s uc u e p esen s ela i ely
small bu in e es ing a ia ions among he h esholds. A 230 K he
me ic pe ec ly esol es he obse ed s uc u e, ne e heless, his
empe a u e h eshold educes he objec s in he domain o a ew spo s.
E e y o he h eshold c ea es smalle objec s (S <0), in line wi h he
unde es ima ion o clouds al eady seen. The ampli ude median is e y
close o he pe ec in ensi y and is iden ical o e e y h eshold,
showing a sligh unde es ima ion (A <0) o he BT. This seems o be
con adic o y wi h he a o emen ioned esul s, bu i has o be consid-
e ed ha es ablishing a h eshold elimina es mos o he lowe clouds,
minimizing he e ec o he wa m BIAS, as he ange o alues is capped
on one side. The loca ion is also e y accu a e o mos o he alues (L <
0.2), being he 220 K h eshold he wo s esul . Cal o-Sancho e al.
(2023) p oduced simila SAL alues o he HARMONIE-AROME and
WRF assessmen o ou di e en TTs. Despi e he SAL esul s would
seem o indica e ha he 230 K h eshold is he bes pe o me , when he
FSS is compu ed (Fig. 3d), he bes alue is achie ed by he la ges scale
windows and wa mes BT h eshold. E en mo e, he 250 K h eshold
yields be e alues han e e y o he a e e y scale window.
When he SAL is compu ed o he CTH (Fig. 3b), once again he
ampli ude is iden ical o e e y h eshold, e y close o he pe ec sco e,
al hough his ime i o e es ima es sligh ly (A >0), as men ioned in he
CTH a e age analysis. The loca ion o his a iable is e en be e han
o he BT, howe e , he s uc u e yields la ge a ia ions among he
h esholds. While he 5000 m CTH h eshold c ea es la ge s uc u es,
he 8000 m unde es ima es he size o he objec s (conside ing he
shapes shown in Fig. 1 a e simila ). The mos accu a e sco e is achie ed
by he 6000 m cu . I is wo h conside ing ha all o hese a e conside ed
high clouds in his egion, as pe he WMO (2017), bu highe ops a e
e alua ed in conside a ion o he deep-mois con ec i e p ocesses
associa ed wi h he STT e en s. The FSS esul s (Fig. 3e) gi e p e e ence
o he wides window and lowes CTH, achie ing he bes FSS sco e o
all he p e-STT a iables.
The applica ion o he SAL me ic o he accumula ed p ecipi a ion
(Fig. 3c) con i ms ha he HARMONIE-AROME pe o ms e y well on
loca ion which is almos pe ec . The median ampli udes p esen a sligh
unde es ima ion and iden ical alues, howe e he e is a la ge a ia ion
his ime o each objec , as e iden by he e ical sp ead o he poin s.
This seems o be in line wi h he p e ious esul s. The s uc u e is much
mo e concen a ed o his a iable, showing e y simila alues o
e e y h eshold his ime, all o hem wi h a sligh unde es ima ion.
Wang e al. (2020) simula e hea y ain all e en s associa ed wi h se e al
land alling opical cyclones in China wi h he WRF model wi h da a
assimila ion om con ec ional obse a ions and IMERG ain all p od-
uc s. The au ho s ob ain FSS alues a ound 0.45 o a 50 km scale
window and 10 mm accumula ed p ecipi a ion. In he cu en pape , no
da a assimila ion is conside ed and he FSS sco es (Fig. 3 ) a e bes o
he wides scale size wi h a FSS alue o 0.53 o h eshold o 25 mm and
64 km.
3.2. Pos -STT esul s
When we e alua e he BT a e age esul s a e he ansi ion ime
(Fig. 4a, d) a clea imp o emen om he p e-STT esul s can be
app ecia ed. The simula ed BT ield (Fig. 4d) suppo s he shape and
Fig. 2. HARMONIE-AROME BIAS o a) BT (k), b) CTH (m), and c) accumula ed p ecipi a ion (mm) in he p e-STT pe iod.
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.

A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
6
loca ion o he con ec i e sys ems qui e well, wi h alues app oxima ely
10 K highe han sa elli e ones. The HARMONIE-AROME is s ill o e -
es ima ing he BT, howe e , o a much lowe ex en and wi h a
ema kable esemblance o he sa elli e image in he dis ibu ion o
clouds. Bo h he co e o he cyclone and he on al a ea eas o i show
e y simila esul s o he sa elli e, as he e a e no “missing” clouds and
he whole sys em is adequa ely simula ed, albei he men ioned o e -
es ima ion o empe a u es. The STD esul s o he BT (Fig. 4g, j) also
p esen s e y simila images o he sa elli e and he model. The alues
shown a e e y small and, once again, he model shows a sligh ly less
symme ic s uc u e han he sa elli e da a.
The CTH esul s o he pos -STT pe iod (Fig. 4b, e) p esen s an
adequa e simula ion o he obse a ion, mainly a he co e o he
cyclone. The con ec i e co e ops a e well cap u ed by he HARMONIE-
AROME model wi h an o e es ima ion on he on al a eas; howe e ,
he e is a la ge a ea o he no h-wes o he domain we e he model ails
o depic low clouds. The s uc u e o he sys em is p ope ly ep oduced
and, again, he co e and on al sys em do no p esen “missing” clouds
om he obse a ion. I mus be men ioned, ne e heless, ha some
noise is p esen on he simula ion o he on al CTHs. This is mo e
e iden in he STD esul s (Fig. 4h, k), whe e highe alues a e shown in
compa ison wi h he sa elli e. The model esul s a e also highe han he
sa elli e in he co e o he cyclone, bu , o e all, he esul s a e simila
and p esen low STD alues.
In con as wi h he good pe o mance o HARMONIE-AROME
simula ing he BT and CTH in he pos -STT pe iod, he accumula ed
p ecipi a ion esul s (Fig. 4c, ) show a g oss o e es ima ion. While he
IMERG da a p esen he accumula ed p ecipi a ion below 30 mm o
mos o he sys em and a la ge a ea o 70 mm in he sou he n pa o he
co e, he model simula es he majo pa o he cyclone p oducing alues
o e 70 mm, wi h an inne co e ing eaching alues o 200 mm. The
on al sec ion is also o e es ima ed in he simula ion, p oducing alues
abo e 100 mm whe e he obse a ions show p ecipi a ions below 30
mm. Ne e heless, he STD o he a iable (Fig. 4i, l) p esen s e y
simila igu es o he obse a ion and model. As seen in he p e-STT, he
STD alues a e e y low and show a di use image o he sa elli e while
he model c ea es sha pe s uc u es.
Analyzing he BIAS esul s o he BT in he pos -STT pe iod (Fig. 5a),
he a o emen ioned o e es ima ion is e iden , wi h some a eas o un-
de es ima ion o he empe a u e o he clouds su ounding he co e o
he sou h-eas and sou h-wes . These esul s a e also seen in he RMSE
alues (no shown), con i ming ha he HARMONIE-AROME model
ends o p oduce lowe clouds han obse ed, as al eady seen in he p e-
STT pe iod. The BIAS o he CTH (Fig. 5b) con i ms he good pe o -
mance o he model in his a iable o he pos -STT pe iod, especially
o he co e o he cyclone, while he on al sys em p esen s he o e -
es ima ion o CTH al eady seen and in coincidence wi h high RMSE
alues (no shown). The BIAS esul s o he accumula ed p ecipi a ion
(Fig. 5c) con i m he la ge o e es ima ion o he a iable. Almos he
whole sys em p esen s a la ge excess o simula ed p ecipi a ion, also
con i med in he RMSE alues (no shown).
The SAL esul s o BT on he pos -STT pe iod (Fig. 6a) p esen a e y
adequa e s uc u e and ampli ude o e e y h eshold, wi h a sligh
unde es ima ion o bo h componen s (A <0; S <0), showing an
imp o emen o e he p e-STT pe iod. The HARMONIE-AROME also
shows a good pe o mance on loca ion, howe e , yields wo se esul s o
he less con ec i e h esholds (250 K and 240 K) and main ains he same
esul s o he highly con ec i e ones (230 K and 220 K). O e all, he
SAL alues a e e y good o he BT, being he 250 K and 240 K
h esholds he bes pe o me s. Bliˇ
zˇ
n´
ak e al. (2017) diagnose and p e-
dic he deep con ec i e cloud and hea y ain all e olu ion o some
con ec i e s o ms wi h he COSMO model using simila BT ields o his
wo k. They ob ain esul s indica ing s ong con ec i e ac i i y wi h e y
low BTs (210–240 K) using a h eshold a ound 223 K. Thei FSS alues
(~ 0.5 in a e age) a e ob ained when he scales end o be la ges and
he h eshold BT alues end o be lowe (〈220K). In ou case, he FSS
alues (Fig. 6d) con i m he 250 K as he bes h eshold wi h qui e
simila esul s o 240 K, p oducing he bes sco e when combined wi h
he la ges scale window. Ne e heless, i mus be no ed ha he bes
FSS o he pos -STT is lowe han he bes p e-STT.
E alua ing he SAL o CTH (Fig. 6b), he same beha io is ound as
o he p e-STT pe iod. The ampli ude and loca ion a e iden ical and
Fig. 3. SAL esul s o he a) BT, b) CTH, and c) accumula ed p ecipi a ion du ing he p e-STT pe iod. Medians o HARMONIE-AROME associa ed o each h eshold
a e depic ed in colo ed dashed lines.
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
7
e y close o 0 o e e y h eshold, wi h a sligh o e es ima ion on
ampli ude. The s uc u e p esen s a smalle dispe sion his pe iod, bu
s ill showing clea di e ences be ween h esholds. As seen o he p e-
STT pe iod, he mos con ec i e h eshold (8000 m) yields he wo s
esul o s uc u e, wi h a la ge unde es ima ion o size, while he 5000
m h eshold p esen s an almos pe ec s uc u e. The FSS (Fig. 6e) e-
sul s con i m his h eshold as he bes pe o me , al hough he esul s
a e e y close o hose o 6000 m.
As he p ecipi a ion ield usually p esen s mo e spa ial a iabili y
han he cloudiness ield, he sco es o he simula ion esul s a e
Fig. 4. Same as Fig. 1 excep o he pos -STT pe iod.
Fig. 5. Same as Fig. 2 excep o he pos -STT pe iod.
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
8
ce ainly wo se compa ed o hose o he sa elli e image y. The e o e, in
con as wi h he p e ious a iables, he accumula ed p ecipi a ion
yields a majo di e ence be ween p e-STT and pos -STT. The SAL o
p ecipi a ion (Fig. 6c) shows a e y good pe o mance on loca ion, bu a
de e io a ion on s uc u e and ampli ude. The s uc u e p esen s a la ge
dispe sion be ween he h esholds o his pe iod, and u ns in o o e -
es ima ing he p ecipi a ion, al hough he 25 mm h eshold achie es an
almos pe ec sco e. The ampli ude also goes in o he o e es ima ion o
he a iable, as expec ed om p e ious esul s, p esen ing a lowe
dispe sion han in he p e-STT pe iod, bu wi h la ge medians. The FSS
(Fig. 6 ) clea ly e lec s he poo pe o mance o he simula ion wi h he
accumula ed p ecipi a ion pos -STT. Bliˇ
zˇ
n´
ak e al. (2017) ob ain FSS
a e aged alues a ound 0.3 when using he 5 mm h eshold o e i y he
simula ed p ecipi a ion o deep con ec i e clouds. As a o emen ioned,
da a assimila ion is conside ed in hei s udy, which can signi ican ly
imp o e o ecas s om NWP models, as pe Milan e al. (2008) and
Sokol (2009). In ou case, no da a assimila ion is aken in o accoun ;
ne e heless, FSS a ound 0.22 is ob ained o 25 mm, i.e., o a e y
s ong con ec i e ac i i y.
4. Conclusions
The HARMONIE-AROME model is e alua ed in he simula ion o he
con ec ion associa ed o a STT occu ed in Oc obe 2014 nea he Ca-
na y Islands. A e i ica ion o he simula ions is done a p e-STT and
pos -STT pe iods agains se e al sa elli e obse a ions, i.e., he BT
obse ed in he 10.8
μ
m long-wa e IR channel, he CTH de i ed by
NWC-SAF and he accumula ed p ecipi a ion IMERG da a de eloped by
NASA. The e i ica ion includes se e al skill sco es and objec -o ien ed
me ics, spa ially compu ed and depic ed o analyze he model’s abili y
and skill ulness when ep oducing he BT, CTH and accumula ed
p ecipi a ion.
The esul s show ha he con ec i e s uc u es a e app op ia ely
ep oduced by he HARMONIE-AROME model wi h a good le el o ac-
cu acy compa ed o he sa elli e obse a ions. The esul s a e clea e
and mo e obus o he pos -STT pe iod, when he sys em has al eady
unde gone he ansi ion, mos p obably due o he associa ed deep-
con ec ion du ing he p e-STT pe iod.
F om he BT assessmen , he HARMONIE-AROME model ends o
simula e smalle s uc u es, especially a he p e-STT s age, wi h a e y
good pe o mance on loca ion and small e o s in ampli ude, deno ing a
gene alized o e es ima ion, mos e iden in he co e o he cyclone
du ing he p e-STT. These esul s a e in acco dance wi h Qui i´
an-
He n´
andez e al. (2021).
Conce ning he CTH analysis, he s uc u es a e again unde -
es ima ed, wi h a a iable le el o accu acy depending on he con ec i e
h eshold e alua ed. The dispe sion is lowe o he pos -STT pe iod,
once again showing he in luence o deep-mois con ec ion on he
model’s s abili y. The simula ion p ope ly cap u es he heigh s, wi h
only a small o e es ima ion, and pe o ms e y well on he loca ion o
he cloud ops.
The accumula ed p ecipi a ion esul s ha e a no able dependance on
he p e-STT and pos -STT s ages. Also, he pe o mance is clea ly wo se
han he o he wo a iables, which would be expec ed because o he
na u e o he a iable and he challenge in i s simula ion in an ex eme
e en like a cyclone. In gene al, he basic cha ac e is ics o sa elli e and
simula ed accumula ed p ecipi a ion ields a e simila ; howe e , di -
e ences be ween he p ecipi a ion co e posi ions a e la ge han in he
BT simula ed ield. The accumula ed p ecipi a ion p esen s an accep -
able pe o mance on ampli ude o he p e-STT pe iod, wi h a la ge
o e es ima ion du ing he pos -STT s age. S uc u es end o be smalle
han obse ed be o e he ansi ion, bu la ge a e i , al hough s ill
wi h an accep able sco e. On he o he hand, loca ion pe o ms e y well
on bo h pe iods.
Due o he di icul y o acqui ing obse a ional da a in he icini y o
such an in ense cyclone, i is o en a challenge o alida e nume ical
model simula ions. O e all, he sa is ac o y esul s ob ained om he
HARMONIE-AROME model using sa elli e da a lea e he doo open o
he possibili y o ci cum en ing his p oblem and con inuing o look o
ways o imp o e he simula ions. To his end, i would be e y in e -
es ing o ex end his s udy o o he STTs and e i ica ion me hods, and
also o e alua e da a assimila ion. The p omising esul s ob ained in his
s udy mo i a e us o u he deepen he analysis o cyclones associa ed
wi h opical ansi ion p ocesses using high- esolu ion nume ical
Fig. 6. Same as Fig. 3 excep o he pos -STT pe iod.
C. Cal o-Sancho e al.
A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794
9
models.
Decla a ion o Compe ing In e es
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial
in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence
he wo k epo ed in his pape .
Da a a ailabili y
Da a will be made a ailable on eques .
Acknowledgmen s
This wo k was pa ially suppo ed by esea ch p ojec PID2019-
105306RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and he wo ECMWF
Special P ojec s (SPESMART and SPESVALE). C. Cal o-Sancho ac-
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