Assessment of HARMONIE-AROME in the simulation of the convective activity associated to a subtropical transition using satellite data

A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 A ailable online 3 May 2023 0169-8095/© 2023 The Au ho (s). Published by Else ie B.V. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by- nc-nd/4.0/). In i ed e iew a icle Assessmen o HARMONIE-AROME in he simula ion o he con ec i e ac i i y associa ed o a sub opical ansi ion using sa elli e da a C. Cal o-Sancho a , L. Qui i´ an-He n´ andez a , P. Bolgiani b , J.J. Gonz´ alez-Alem´ an c , D. San os-Mu˜ noz d , M.L. Ma ín a , e , * a Depa men o Applied Ma hema ics, Facul y o Compu e Enginee ing, Uni e si y o Valladolid, Sego ia, Spain b Depa men o Ea h Physics and As ophysics, Facul y o Physics, Complu ense Uni e si y o Mad id, Mad id, Spain c Agencia Es a al de Me eo ología (AEMET), Depa men o De elopmen and Applica ions, Mad id, Spain d Danma ks Me eo ologiske Ins i u . Denma k e Ins i u e o In e disciplina y Ma hema ics (IMI), Complu ense Uni e si y o Mad id, Mad id, Spain. ARTICLE INFO Keywo ds: Sub opical ansi ion Spa ial e i ica ion SAL objec -based me hod FSS objec i e- obus neighbo hood e i ica ion echnique HARMONIE-AROME ABSTRACT Sub opical ansi ion e en s (STT) a e a challenge o o ecas ing and esea ch due o he hyb id cha ac e is ics hey gi e o he cyclones. The abili y and skill ulness o he HARMONIE-AROME model o ep oduce he cloud s uc u e and con ec ion associa ed o he Oc obe 2014 STT is he e e alua ed. B igh ness empe a u e, cloud op heigh and accumula ed p ecipi a ion a e assessed agains sa elli e da a using adi ional skill sco es and objec -based echniques speci ic o o ecas ing spa ial e alua ion. The esul s p esen di e ences in he simu- la ion o he cyclone be ween he pe iods be o e and a e he ansi ion. They also show a e y good pe o - mance o he model in he loca ion o he e en s and a good simula ion o he in ensi y o he a iables. The pe o mance is sub-op imal o he es ima ion o he sizes o he con ec i e objec s. B igh ness empe a u e and cloud op heigh s yield e y good esul s in gene al, wi h a sligh o e es ima ion in bo h cases. Howe e , he model s uggles o cap u e he accumula ed p ecipi a ion. The e is sca ce wo k e alua ing he HARMONIE- AROME model in his ype o e en s; ne e heless, he esul s a e in line wi h hose p oduced by he simula- ions wi h o he nume ical models. The o e all pe o mance o he model is e y adequa e, al hough i migh be hinde ed by he in e nal s abili y o he model p oduced by he deep-con ec ion compu a ion. 1. In oduc ion A cyclone ansi ion is a p ocess in which a opical o ex a opical cyclone has a g adual dynamic and he modynamic ans o ma ion o a di e en ype o cyclone. This p ocess is e iden in he cyclone’s co e dynamics and i s on al cha ac e is ics (Ga de e al., 2010). The concep o ansi ion app ecia es ha he e a e no physical cons ain s in he ee a mosphe e o p e en a gi en ype o cyclone om con e ing in o a di e en ype o om ha ing hyb id cha ac e is ics (Ga de e al., 2010; Gonz´ alez Alem´ an, 2018). The e a e mainly wo ypes o cyclone an- si ions: ex a opical ansi ion (ET) and opical ansi ion (TT). An ET (Jones e al., 2003; E ans e al., 2017) is a p ocess by which a opical cyclone loses i s wa m-co e and symme ic na u e and g adually ac- qui es he cha ac e is ics ypical o cold-co e asymme ical cyclones. A opical ansi ion (TT) is he p ocess whe eby a ba oclinic, high- o- mode a e e ical wind shea , ex a opical o sub opical cyclone is ans o med in o a wa m-co e, low e ical wind shea , opical cyclone (Da is and Bosa , 2003, 2004). A TT p ocess occu s when ex a opical p ecu so s associa ed wi h an uppe - oposphe ic dis u bance o a ba - oclinic cyclone (among o he possible dis u bances), de elops in o a opical cyclone (Gala neau e al., 2015). Some sys ems can hold hyb id cha ac e is ics, wi h opical and ex a opical ea u es (E ans and Guisha d, 2009), e ol ing in a “ne e - ending TT p ocess” which does no p oduce a pu e ype o cyclone. Wi hin his kind o sys ems, he sub opical cyclones (STC) a e s ill conside ed a challenge o me eo ological o ecas e s and esea che s due o hei complex dynamics and apid in ensi ica ion p ocess. Consequen ly, hei impac s a e qui e ha m ul, simila o hose caused by a opical s o m o e en a hu icane (E ans and Guisha d, 2009; Wang and Wu, 2004). STCs a e low p essu e sys ems wi h bo h opical and ex a opical cha ac e is ics ha de elop wi h ela i ely shallow- weak ba oclinici y in jux aposi ion wi h diaba ic p ocesses (Ha , * Co esponding au ho a : Depa men o Applied Ma hema ics, Facul y o Compu e Enginee ing, Uni e si y o Valladolid, Sego ia, Spain. E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (M.L. Ma ín). Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec A mosphe ic Resea ch jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/a mos es h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.a mos es.2023.106794 Recei ed 10 Feb ua y 2023; Recei ed in e ised o m 21 Ap il 2023; Accep ed 2 May 2023 A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 2 2003; E ans and Guisha d, 2009; Da is, 2010). They ha e hyb id he mal s uc u es which can mainly be desc ibed by cold uppe - oposphe ic and wa m lowe - oposphe ic he mal anomalies. The e o e, a cyclone becomes a STC when i s on s a e pa ially an- ished, he con ec ion a ound he su ace low inc eases and he sys em sha es he modynamic s uc u es. STCs ha e been obse ed du ing he ea ly s ages o hu icanes o opical s o ms ha , in some cases, we e pa o a TT p ocess (Da is and Bosa , 2004). Fo ins ance, hu icanes Del a (2005), and Leslie (2018) acqui ed a sub opical na u e a some poin du ing hei TT (Be en e al., 2008; S ewa d, 2018). The objec o he cu en su ey is a STC eme ged om an ex a opical cyclone ha had ea lie de eloped om a la ge Rossby wa e. Subsequen ly, he cyclone expe ienced a low cu -o p ocess and la e isola ion (Qui- i´ an-He n´ andez e al., 2016). Since he STC did no e ol e in o a opical cyclone, i jus wen h ough wha is known as a sub opical ansi ion (STT). S udies ocusing on STT e en s ha e been ca ied ou in di e en pa s o he globe. STC Ani a, which almos acqui ed hu icane ca ego y, was e alua ed in he Sou h A lan ic Ocean (Dias Pin o e al., 2013). In he No h A lan ic Ocean, Gonz´ alez-Alem´ an e al. (2015) analyzed hu icanes Vince and Del a which we e iden i ied as STCs in hei ea ly s ages. In addi ion, due o hei pa icula cha ac e is ics, he e has been an inc ease in he numbe o s udies conce ning STTs, which has led o he de elopmen o nume ous STC clima ologies (Ca icchia e al., 2019; E ans and Guisha d, 2009; E ans and B aun, 2012; Gonz´ alez-Alem´ an e al., 2015; Gonz´ alez-Alem´ an e al., 2018). In ac , due o he subs an ial ela ion be ween he STC s eng h and he diaba ic p ocesses de eloped by hese sys ems o e he ocean (E ans and Guisha d, 2009; Gonz´ alez- Alem´ an e al., 2015), and conside ing he impo ance o clima e change, he e is a g owing in e es conce ning he no hwa d de ia ion o hei ajec o ies and possible impac s o e wes e n Eu ope (Gonz´ alez- Alem´ an e al., 2018). This pape analyzes he con ec ion associa ed o a STT e en occu ed in Oc obe 2014. The sys em e ol ed om Oc obe 17 h o Oc obe 22nd, wi h he ansi ion ime a ound 06:00 UTC on Oc obe 20 h. The e en made land all on he Cana y Islands, causing wide- sp ead economic and social damage mainly due o s ong winds and in ense p ecipi a ion. Mos o he impac s a ec ed he me opoli an a ea o San a C uz de Tene i e, wi h a leas one deceased pe son, nume ous loodings, landslides, ligh cancella ions, and i es p o oked by elec- ical s o ms a ound he island. Qui i´ an-He n´ andez e al. (2016) pe - o med a synop ic and mesoscale analysis o his e en which was inally included in he STC clima ology o he Eas e n No h A lan ic (ENA) c ea ed by Gonz´ alez-Alem´ an e al. (2015). In Qui i´ an-He n´ andez e al. (2021), he same e en was analyzed by means o wo high- esolu ion nume ical wea he p edic ion (NWP) models, he Wea he Resea ch and Fo ecas ing (WRF) and he HARMONIE-AROME model, being his he i s ime he la e was used o simula e a STT e en . A local ali- da ion h ough se e al obse a ions (ai po s METAR and soundings) was ca ied ou . As a i s app oach o he use o sa elli e da a, he b igh ness empe a u e (BT) p oduc was e alua ed om a isual poin o iew and on a e age using a se o adi ional skill sco es. In he cu en s udy, he analysis o he Oc obe 2014 STT e en is ex ended o pe o m a mo e comple e alida ion o he HARMONIE- AROME abili y and e ec i eness in simula ing STTs e en s om a spa ial pe spec i e. To his end, se e al sa elli e da a (BT, cloud op heigh and p ecipi a ion) a e spa ially compa ed o he model simula- ions. The s udy is di ided in o wo speci ic pe iods: he p e-STT pe iod, when he cyclone is pu ely ex a opical, and he pos -STT pe iod, when he cyclone acqui es sub opical cha ac e is ics. The sa elli e da ase s a e spa ially compa ed o he HARMONIE-AROME esul s, alida ing he simula ions h ough se e al skill sco es spa ially calcula ed o gi e a gene al idea o he model’s abili y. Fu he mo e, objec -o ien ed me ics a e also used o e alua e he model skill. This pape is o ganized as ollows: da ase s and me hodology a e p esen ed in Sec ion 2. Sec ion 3 includes he esul s and discussion o he spa ial alida ion. Finally, he majo conclusions a e summa ized in Sec ion 4. 2. Da a and me hodology 2.1. Nume ical wea he p edic ion model Se e al simula ions o he Oc obe 2014 STT e en a e ca ied ou using he HARMONIE-AROME model (Beng sson e al., 2017). This is a limi ed-a ea high- esolu ion con ec ion-pe mi ing model, which uses a non-hyd os a ic spec al dynamical co e wi h a semi-Lag angian and semi-implici disc e iza ion o he equa ions. The ini ial and bounda y condi ions a e ob ained om he ECMWF In eg a ed Fo ecas ing Sys em (IFS) analysis o he Na ional Me eo ological A chi al and Re ie al Sys em (MARS) wi h a T1279 spec al solu ion e e y 6 h. The model HARMONIE-AROME con igu a ion (cycle 40h1.1.1) is simila o he one used by Qui i´ an-He n´ andez e al. (2021) wi h a single domain o 2.5 km g id esolu ion and 65 hyb id sigma-p essu e le els. The se o physics pa ame e iza ion schemes used is he same as he AROME-F ance model (Sei y e al., 2011). The mos ema kable a e: Fo sho wa e adia ion, he Mo c e e scheme (Sei y e al., 2011; Beng sson e al., 2017). Mos o he ICE-3 package (Lascaux e al., 2006) is applied o mic ophysics. The su ace pa ame e iza ion is he SURFEX scheme (Masson e al., 2013), which is composed o se e al physical models o land su ace, ci ies, and lakes. Fo shallow con ec ion pa ame iza ion, he EDMFm scheme is applied (de Rooy, 2014; Beng sson e al., 2017), which uses a dual low-mass app oach capable o dis inguishing bo h, a d y and we upd a s. Finally, o u bulence pa ame e iza ion, he HARATU scheme (Beng sson e al., 2017) is used. The simula ion is pe o med o 120 h, wi h a empo al ou pu o 3 h, allowing a spin-up ime o 12 h. I is hen di ed in o p e-STT, 10 ime-s eps om 19 h a 0000 UTC o 20 h a 0600 UTC, and pos -STT, 28 ime-s eps om 20 h a 0600 UTC o he 23 d a 1800 UTC. 2.2. Obse a ional da ase s As cyclones usually de elop o e oceanic a eas, a mosphe ic obse - a ions and measu emen s a e o en sca ce. E en when ins umen s a e in he a ea, he in ensi y o he cyclone i sel can cause he equipmen o become inope a i e. Tha is he eason why sa elli e p oduc s become essen ial when e alua ing model simula ions, as hey a e some imes he only sou ce o obse a ions. In his s udy we use h ee di e en sa elli e p oduc s o e alua e he abili y o he HARMONIE-AROME model o simula e he deep-mois con ec ion associa ed o wo di e en s ages o a STT cyclone, diagnosing he posi ion and heigh o con ec i e clouds and p ecipi a ion. The spinning enhanced isible and in a ed image (SEVIRI) is he main ins umen o he Me eosa second gene a ion (MSG) geos a iona y sa elli es. SEVIRI p o ides image da a in ou isible and nea -in a ed channels and eigh in a ed (IR) channels ( anging om 3.9 o 13.4 μ m), p o iding con inuous p ecise da a h oughou he a mosphe e. This is usually used o enhance he quali y o he ini ial and bounda y con- di ions o NWP models (Pas e nak e al., 1994). The eigh IR channels, loca ed in he he mal egion, p o ide cloud, land, and sea su ace empe a u e da a. Wi h a empo al esolu ion o 15 min, he ho izon al esolu ion o he s anda d channels is 5 km, excep o he high- esolu ion isible channel which has a sampling dis ance o 1 km a he nadi . One o he MSG-SEVIRI p oduc s used in his s udy o alida e he HARMONIE-AROME ou pu s is he BT ield. Acco ding o Bo mann e al. (2014) and O kin e al. (2009), he app op ia e channels o iden i y he op cloud co e and su ace empe a u es a e he 8.7 μ m, 10.8 μ m, and 12.0 μ m IR channels. Mo eo e , he 10.8 μ m and 12.0 μ m IR channels a e conside ed o be especially sensi i e o he exis ence o clouds (Zinge le, 2005; Bo mann e al., 2014; Mon ejo, 2016). Fu he mo e, acco ding o Che allie and Kelly (2002), all hese men ioned IR C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 3 channels a e pa icula ly accu a e in de ec ing he cloud e ical dis- ibu ion and o he ields, such as empe a u e o emissi i y. Qui- i´ an-He n´ andez e al. (2021) and Díaz-Fe n´ andez e al. (2022) use he 10.8 μ m long-wa e IR channel in sub opical cyclones and moun ain wa es s udies demons a ing i s alue as obse a ional da a o alida e nume ical simula ions. Acco ding o such s udies, he 10.8 μ m long-wa e IR channel is selec ed in his s udy as obse a ional da a. Ano he sa elli e a iable used in he alida ion is he cloud op heigh (CTH). This has been aken om he Cloud Top Tempe a u e and Heigh (CTTH) p oduc de eloped by he Nowcas ing Sa elli e Appli- ca ion Facili ies (NWC-SAF) g oup, led by he Spanish Me eo ological Agency wi hin he EUMETSAT. To compu e he CTTH p oduc he 6.2, 7.0, and 7.3 μ m sa elli e adiances and he 10.8 and 12.0 μ m sa elli e BT a e needed. Fu he mo e, he p ocedu e o compu ing he CTH will depend on he ca ego y o he cloud, i.e., low o middle-le el hick clouds, uppe -le el hick clouds, o uppe -le el semi- anspa en clouds (NWC-SAF, 2023). Finally, p ecipi a ion is one o he mos impo an e ec s o his ype o sys em, so imp o ing ain all p edic ion using me eo ological models is needed. The In eg a ed Mul i-Sa elli e Re ie als o he Global P e- cipi a ion Mission (IMERG; Hou e al., 2014;Hu man e al., 2015; Sko onick-Jackson e al., 2017) is an algo i hm de eloped by NASA o es ima e he accumula ed p ecipi a ion in mos pa s o he globe by combining in o ma ion om he NASA sa elli e cons ella ion (Tan e al., 2017). In he cu en s udy, he IMERG-F Le el 3 (Ve sion 5) p oduc has been used o analyze he accumula ed p ecipi a ion in he s udy a ea wi h a spa ial esolu ion o 0.1 ×0.1◦e e y 30 min (NASA, 2023). I mus be no ed ha , un o una ely, he e is e y sca ce li e a u e abou he e alua ion o his a iable wi h he HARMONIE-AROME simula ions o a p ope discussion, hus we will eso mainly o s udies made wi h he WRF model. 2.3. Me hodology Se e al skill sco es a e used o e alua e he model simula ions agains he sa elli e obse a ions. The spa ial alida ion is assessed calcula ing he skill sco es o each g id poin o he domain, along he empo al dimension, o he pe iod analyzed. The esul s a e e alua ed in p e-STT and pos -STT pe iods. The skill sco es used in his s udy consis o ela i e bias (he ea e BIAS), oo mean squa e e o (RMSE), and s anda d de ia ion (STD). In addi ion o hese, he SAL (S uc u e, Ampli ude, Loca ion) objec - based me ic is also assessed (We nli e al., 2009). This me hod was de eloped o quan i y he model accu acy on spa ial dis ibu ion, in- ensi y, and loca ion o p ecipi a ion objec s in quan i a i e p ecipi a- ion o ecas s (Ebe and McB ide, 2000; Da is e al., 2006; F üh e al., 2007). I has been p o en use ul in he e alua ion o e en s in Eu ope, by Zimme e al. (2008) in sou he n Ge many and Jenkne (2008) in Swi ze land. We nli e al. (2009) applied he me ic o se e al quan i- a i e p ecipi a ion o ecas cases in he Uni ed S a es showing good esul s o he p ecipi a ion in ensi y and loca ion. They also p o ed ha SAL is usually mo e accu a e han he adi ional skill sco es when e alua ing se e e e en s. F üh e al. (2007) applied SAL o e alua e he accu acy o p ecipi a ion o ecas s gene a ed by local NWPs and sa el- li es. C ocke and Mi e maie (2013) demons a ed ha SAL can show he abili y o a model o esol e cloud ee a eas by combining he e alua ion o he en i e domain wi h he e alua ion o indi idual ob- jec s. The e o e, he applica ion o SAL appea s o be pa icula ly use ul o he alida ion o he cloud dis ibu ion and, as such, i is applied he e o he BT, CTH and IMERG ields. The SAL me ic is compu ed independen ly o S uc u e, Ampli ude, and Loca ion o he ield analyzed, and he esul s show de ia ion om he obse ed objec . The s uc u e and ampli ude alues ange om −2 o +2, wi h a null alue indica ing a pe ec simula ion. While he s uc u e, depic ed along he x-axis, desc ibes he objec ’s size and shape, he ampli ude, depic ed along he y-axis, p o ides in o ma ion on he in ensi y o he ield analyzed. The loca ion alues ange om 0 o +2, being ze o he ideal, and is p esen ed in a colo code. I quan i ies he displacemen o he o ecas ed objec in ela ion o he obse a ion, conside ing he cen e o mass o each. To de ine each objec , a h eshold mus be de ined o he a iable used. In his s udy, he h esholds used a e: Fo he BT, 250 K, 240 K, 230 K and 220 K. Fo he CTH, 5000 m, 6000 m, 7000 m and 8000 m. Fo he IMERG, 25 mm, 30 mm, 35 mm and 40 mm. Finally, he F ac ion Skill Sco e (FSS) is an objec i e- obus neigh- bo hood e i ica ion echnique which is less sensi i e o spa ial e o s han adi ional skill sco es. The FSS measu es how he o ecas skill a ies wi h spa ial scale (Robe s and Lean, 2008; Robe s, 2008; Wol e al., 2014; Sokol e al., 2022), being less sensi i e o small-scale o displacemen e o s. I is de ined as a a ia ion o he B ie Skill Sco e (B ie , 1950), and i can be conside ed as a Mean Squa ed E o compu ed ela i e o a low-skill e e ence o ecas (Robe s and Lean, 2008). This a oids he high dependency on he equency o he e en . The FSS alues ange om 0 o 1, wi h 1 deno ing he mos accu a e pe o mance. The sco e depends on he sizes o he selec ed squa es o windows (deno ed as scales in he igu es) and on he h eshold alues ha a e used o calcula e ac ional co e age. Thus, FSS alues a e la ge as he domain window scale inc eases, which implies ha lowe FSS alues a e ob ained wi h high- esolu ion NWP models (Ebe , 2009). In he cu en pape , simila SAL h esholds a e applied in FSS esul s. 3. Resul s and discussion In his sec ion, he BT, CTH, and IMERG ields a e used o e alua e he HARMONIE-AROME simula ions o he Oc obe 2014 STT e en . To his end, he esul s o a o emen ioned skill sco es as well as he SAL and FSS me ics a e p esen ed. Fo he sake o simplici y, he analysis is based in wo main a eas, clea ly seen in Fig. 1a: he co e o he cyclone, comp ising om 24◦W o 18◦W and om 30◦N o 38◦N, and he associa ed on al sys em, eas o he co e. 3.1. P e-STT esul s To show a gene al beha io o he BT ield, he BT mean con igu a- ion is depic ed. The analysis o he BT a e age esul s p e ious o he ansi ion ime o he sys em (Fig. 1a, d) shows ha he on al s uc u e o he cyclone is ep oduced by he model o an adequa e ex en , p e- sen ing a good loca ion o he sys em. Ne e heless, he HARMONIE- AROME model p oduces an o e es ima ion o he BT. This can be app ecia ed in he whole domain; howe e , is mos no able o e he cyclone co e whe e he sa elli e shows a la ge a ea o 243 K and 233 K clouds, no h and wes o he cen e , which he model ails o simula e. This o e es ima ion o BT may be pa ly ela ed o he in ense con ec- i e p ocesses aking place du ing he sys em de elopmen (Zhang e al., 2007; Weisman e al., 2008; Uboldi and T e isan, 2015). Rega ding he o e es ima ion in he su ounding a eas o he cyclone, a simila wa m bias is also no iced in Qui i´ an-He n´ andez e al. (2021). The e alua ion o he STD o BT (Fig. 1g, j) p esen s a e y simila image o he sa elli e and he model, p oducing e y low alues. Howe e , some di e ences can be no ed in he sys em shape, as he model shows a less symme ical and mo e sca e ed s uc u e; i could be said ha he model simula es a sys em wi h mo e ex a opical cha ac e is ics. The a e age o CTH o he p e-STT pe iod (Fig. 1b, e) mus be e alua ed wi h ca e. The sa elli e esul s show ha he p oduc does no ully ep oduce he cloudiness shown by he BT, e iden in he absence o op heigh s o all he low-le el clouds su ounding he co e o he cyclone, a ound 273 K o 253 K (Fig. 1a). On he o he hand, some noise can be seen in he CTHs, as made ob ious by he 8000 m ops nea he Po uguese coas . Howe e , his is di ec ly p oduced by he model and he sou ce has no been ound, no o he au ho s ha e epo ed any hing like his. Ha ing his been no ed, he esul s p esen a beha io simila o he BT o he co e o he cyclone, wi h he model unde es ima ing he C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 4 numbe o clouds mainly o he no h and wes o he cen e . The CTH is la gely o e es ima ed in he on al pa o he sys em, wes o he co e, p esen ing he model 12,000 m ops whe e he sa elli e shows 8000 and 9000 m. The STD esul s o he CTH (Fig. 1 h, k) a e clea ly highe o he HARMONIE-AROME han o he sa elli e. Ne e heless, he esul s alues a e low and ela i ely homogeneous in each domain. The accumula ed p ecipi a ion a e age esul s (Fig. 1c, ) p esen some unde es ima ion by he model. As a o emen ioned, he e is e y sca ce li e a u e abou he e alua ion o his a iable wi h he HARMONIE-AROME, ne e heless, hese esul s a e cong uen wi h hose o Ko e al. (2020), who used he Hu icane WRF model o simula e Hu icane Ha ey. Thei esul s showed ha he model adequa ely e- p oduces he se e e p ecipi a ion a eas bu unde es ima es mode a e p ecipi a ion, e en i he p ecipi a ion pa e n o he hu icane’s ou e band was spa ially well localized. Focusing on he co e o he sys em, HARMONIE-AROME p oduces a hinne band o p ecipi a ion han he obse a ion; i places he maximum p ecipi a ion alues sligh ly o he eas and ails o cap u e he p ecipi a ion o he no h and no h-wes o he co e, c ea ing a s eepe g adien o p ecipi a ion om he cen e o he ou e sys em. This is cong uen wi h he BT esul s. When he on al sys em eas o he co e is e alua ed, he e is a la ge unde es ima ion in a ea by he model; howe e , his accumula es much mo e p ecipi a ion han wha is obse ed in he same a ea. The STD (Fig. 1i, l) p esen s e y low alues and ep oduces an e ec al eady isible in he accumula ed p ecipi a ion; while he sa elli e depic s a di used dis ibu ion o STD, he model shows sha pe and less ealis ic alues. I mus be no ed ha p ecipi a ion is a a iable which s ill holds a la ge unce ain y. To he au ho s’ knowledge, he e a e no s udies ha e alua e HARMONIE-AROME agains he IMERG p oduc . Ne e heless, he e is no ag eemen wi h o he limi ed-a ea high- esolu ion models. Acco ding o Zhang e al. (2018), p ecipi a ion esul s in WRF simula- ions a e independen o he physics pa ame e iza ion and g id esolu- ion. O he s udies (Pie i e al., 2015; O e al., 2017; Ma ínez-Cas o e al., 2019) conclude ha he e is an in insic ela ion be ween he WRF spa ial esolu ion o mic ophysics pa ame e iza ion and he p ecipi a- ion simula ion. E en obse a ion is subjec o discussion; acco ding o se e al au ho s (Maggioni e al., 2016; Khan e al., 2016), he accu acy o sa elli e-based p ecipi a ion p oduc s a ies depending on he egion and season obse ed. Some esul s show ha IMERG ypically un- de es ima es se e e p ecipi a ion du ing he wa m seasons (Ko e al., 2020; Cui e al., 2020), while o he conclude ha sa elli e-based p od- uc s exhibi high p ecision du ing he wa m seasons (Zhang e al., 2018) Fig. 1. a), b), c) MSG-SEVIRI mean; d), e), ) HARMONIE-AROME mean; g), h), i) MSG-SEVIRI s anda d de ia ion; j), k), l) HARMONIE-AROME s anda d de ia ion o BT (K; le column), CTH (m; cen e column) and accumula ed p ecipi a ion (mm; igh column) du ing he p e-STT pe iod. C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 5 bu end o o e es ima e du ing he cold seasons. A he same ime, model-based p oduc s yield be e esul s in he cold seasons, as desc ibed by Khan e al. (2016) and Maggioni e al. (2016). Acco ding o hese au ho s, he cold season e alua ed in his wo k (Oc obe 2014) yields an excellen pe o mance by he models agains he IMERG a he ep oduc ion o accumula ed p ecipi a ion. This would be in con a- dic ion wi h he esul s shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 2 shows he spa ial BIAS compu ed o he BT, CTH, and accu- mula ed p ecipi a ion be o e he ansi ion ime. The esul s o he BT (Fig. 2a) p esen a la ge o e es ima ion o mos o he domain, wi h a no able unde es ima ion whe e he model simula es he majo clus e o clouds in he co e o he cyclone. This would indica e ha he model ends o gene a e lowe clouds in gene al bu highe clouds o deep- con ec ion. These esul s ag ee wi h he a e age bias ob ained by Qui i´ an-He n´ andez e al. (2021), whe e ewe han obse ed uppe -le el clouds we e simula ed by he WRF and HARMONIE-AROME models, esul ing in a la ge quan i y o low-le el clouds. Also, he wa m BIAS o he BT is suppo ed by he compu a ion o he spa ial RMSE (no shown), which shows high RMSE alues in he co esponding posi i e BIAS a eas. Hende son e al. (2021) analyze a case s udy o con ec ion ini ia ion using h ee bulk cloud mic ophysics schemes (Mo ison, Thomson and WDM6) in he WRF model ob aining nega i e bias in BTs associa ed wi h cloud ops. In hei s udy, when he Mo ison scheme is used, a highe ac ion o con ec ion occu s o BT nea 260 K, whe eas he WDM6 and Thompson schemes simula e a highe ac ion o cloud ops colde han he obse ed by he GOES-16 image y. Cold biases o deep con ec ion a e la ges in he Mo ison and Thomson schemes wi h he coldes bias o BTs wi h 240 K as mo e equen alue. G i in e al. (2017) ound a simila beha io when assessing ou pu om he High- Resolu ion Rapid Re esh model in di e en con ec ion modes. Al hough he HARMONIE-AROME model uses he ICE-3 scheme o mic ophysics, a di e en scheme om he Hende son e al. s udy, he BT show simila pe o mance wi h cold bias (Fig. 2a) associa ed o coldes cloud ops. The BIAS esul s o he CTH (Fig. 2b) also con i m wha was men ioned o he a e age alues; he model unde es ima es he heigh s o he no h and wes o he co e, while o e es ima ing he heigh s on he on al sys em. In ag eemen wi h he BIAS o he BT, an o e - es ima ion o he CTH is gene a ed o he clus e o clouds simula ed in he co e. The RMSE esul s (no shown) yield sligh ly highe alues loca ed o he no h o he cyclone co esponding o he posi i e BIAS depic ed in such zone (Fig. 2b), and so, o he o e es ima ion shown in he spa ial mean esul s (Fig. 1e). Finally, he BIAS esul s o he accumula ed p ecipi a ion (Fig. 2c) highligh he ac ha , whe e he model simula es clouds, he p ecipi a ion is o e es ima ed, as seen in he a e age alues. This is in consonance wi h he RMSE alues (no shown). The SAL is compu ed o he BT simula ions by HARMONIE-AROME wi h ou di e en h esholds (Fig. 3a). The s uc u e p esen s ela i ely small bu in e es ing a ia ions among he h esholds. A 230 K he me ic pe ec ly esol es he obse ed s uc u e, ne e heless, his empe a u e h eshold educes he objec s in he domain o a ew spo s. E e y o he h eshold c ea es smalle objec s (S <0), in line wi h he unde es ima ion o clouds al eady seen. The ampli ude median is e y close o he pe ec in ensi y and is iden ical o e e y h eshold, showing a sligh unde es ima ion (A <0) o he BT. This seems o be con adic o y wi h he a o emen ioned esul s, bu i has o be consid- e ed ha es ablishing a h eshold elimina es mos o he lowe clouds, minimizing he e ec o he wa m BIAS, as he ange o alues is capped on one side. The loca ion is also e y accu a e o mos o he alues (L < 0.2), being he 220 K h eshold he wo s esul . Cal o-Sancho e al. (2023) p oduced simila SAL alues o he HARMONIE-AROME and WRF assessmen o ou di e en TTs. Despi e he SAL esul s would seem o indica e ha he 230 K h eshold is he bes pe o me , when he FSS is compu ed (Fig. 3d), he bes alue is achie ed by he la ges scale windows and wa mes BT h eshold. E en mo e, he 250 K h eshold yields be e alues han e e y o he a e e y scale window. When he SAL is compu ed o he CTH (Fig. 3b), once again he ampli ude is iden ical o e e y h eshold, e y close o he pe ec sco e, al hough his ime i o e es ima es sligh ly (A >0), as men ioned in he CTH a e age analysis. The loca ion o his a iable is e en be e han o he BT, howe e , he s uc u e yields la ge a ia ions among he h esholds. While he 5000 m CTH h eshold c ea es la ge s uc u es, he 8000 m unde es ima es he size o he objec s (conside ing he shapes shown in Fig. 1 a e simila ). The mos accu a e sco e is achie ed by he 6000 m cu . I is wo h conside ing ha all o hese a e conside ed high clouds in his egion, as pe he WMO (2017), bu highe ops a e e alua ed in conside a ion o he deep-mois con ec i e p ocesses associa ed wi h he STT e en s. The FSS esul s (Fig. 3e) gi e p e e ence o he wides window and lowes CTH, achie ing he bes FSS sco e o all he p e-STT a iables. The applica ion o he SAL me ic o he accumula ed p ecipi a ion (Fig. 3c) con i ms ha he HARMONIE-AROME pe o ms e y well on loca ion which is almos pe ec . The median ampli udes p esen a sligh unde es ima ion and iden ical alues, howe e he e is a la ge a ia ion his ime o each objec , as e iden by he e ical sp ead o he poin s. This seems o be in line wi h he p e ious esul s. The s uc u e is much mo e concen a ed o his a iable, showing e y simila alues o e e y h eshold his ime, all o hem wi h a sligh unde es ima ion. Wang e al. (2020) simula e hea y ain all e en s associa ed wi h se e al land alling opical cyclones in China wi h he WRF model wi h da a assimila ion om con ec ional obse a ions and IMERG ain all p od- uc s. The au ho s ob ain FSS alues a ound 0.45 o a 50 km scale window and 10 mm accumula ed p ecipi a ion. In he cu en pape , no da a assimila ion is conside ed and he FSS sco es (Fig. 3 ) a e bes o he wides scale size wi h a FSS alue o 0.53 o h eshold o 25 mm and 64 km. 3.2. Pos -STT esul s When we e alua e he BT a e age esul s a e he ansi ion ime (Fig. 4a, d) a clea imp o emen om he p e-STT esul s can be app ecia ed. The simula ed BT ield (Fig. 4d) suppo s he shape and Fig. 2. HARMONIE-AROME BIAS o a) BT (k), b) CTH (m), and c) accumula ed p ecipi a ion (mm) in he p e-STT pe iod. C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 6 loca ion o he con ec i e sys ems qui e well, wi h alues app oxima ely 10 K highe han sa elli e ones. The HARMONIE-AROME is s ill o e - es ima ing he BT, howe e , o a much lowe ex en and wi h a ema kable esemblance o he sa elli e image in he dis ibu ion o clouds. Bo h he co e o he cyclone and he on al a ea eas o i show e y simila esul s o he sa elli e, as he e a e no “missing” clouds and he whole sys em is adequa ely simula ed, albei he men ioned o e - es ima ion o empe a u es. The STD esul s o he BT (Fig. 4g, j) also p esen s e y simila images o he sa elli e and he model. The alues shown a e e y small and, once again, he model shows a sligh ly less symme ic s uc u e han he sa elli e da a. The CTH esul s o he pos -STT pe iod (Fig. 4b, e) p esen s an adequa e simula ion o he obse a ion, mainly a he co e o he cyclone. The con ec i e co e ops a e well cap u ed by he HARMONIE- AROME model wi h an o e es ima ion on he on al a eas; howe e , he e is a la ge a ea o he no h-wes o he domain we e he model ails o depic low clouds. The s uc u e o he sys em is p ope ly ep oduced and, again, he co e and on al sys em do no p esen “missing” clouds om he obse a ion. I mus be men ioned, ne e heless, ha some noise is p esen on he simula ion o he on al CTHs. This is mo e e iden in he STD esul s (Fig. 4h, k), whe e highe alues a e shown in compa ison wi h he sa elli e. The model esul s a e also highe han he sa elli e in he co e o he cyclone, bu , o e all, he esul s a e simila and p esen low STD alues. In con as wi h he good pe o mance o HARMONIE-AROME simula ing he BT and CTH in he pos -STT pe iod, he accumula ed p ecipi a ion esul s (Fig. 4c, ) show a g oss o e es ima ion. While he IMERG da a p esen he accumula ed p ecipi a ion below 30 mm o mos o he sys em and a la ge a ea o 70 mm in he sou he n pa o he co e, he model simula es he majo pa o he cyclone p oducing alues o e 70 mm, wi h an inne co e ing eaching alues o 200 mm. The on al sec ion is also o e es ima ed in he simula ion, p oducing alues abo e 100 mm whe e he obse a ions show p ecipi a ions below 30 mm. Ne e heless, he STD o he a iable (Fig. 4i, l) p esen s e y simila igu es o he obse a ion and model. As seen in he p e-STT, he STD alues a e e y low and show a di use image o he sa elli e while he model c ea es sha pe s uc u es. Analyzing he BIAS esul s o he BT in he pos -STT pe iod (Fig. 5a), he a o emen ioned o e es ima ion is e iden , wi h some a eas o un- de es ima ion o he empe a u e o he clouds su ounding he co e o he sou h-eas and sou h-wes . These esul s a e also seen in he RMSE alues (no shown), con i ming ha he HARMONIE-AROME model ends o p oduce lowe clouds han obse ed, as al eady seen in he p e- STT pe iod. The BIAS o he CTH (Fig. 5b) con i ms he good pe o - mance o he model in his a iable o he pos -STT pe iod, especially o he co e o he cyclone, while he on al sys em p esen s he o e - es ima ion o CTH al eady seen and in coincidence wi h high RMSE alues (no shown). The BIAS esul s o he accumula ed p ecipi a ion (Fig. 5c) con i m he la ge o e es ima ion o he a iable. Almos he whole sys em p esen s a la ge excess o simula ed p ecipi a ion, also con i med in he RMSE alues (no shown). The SAL esul s o BT on he pos -STT pe iod (Fig. 6a) p esen a e y adequa e s uc u e and ampli ude o e e y h eshold, wi h a sligh unde es ima ion o bo h componen s (A <0; S <0), showing an imp o emen o e he p e-STT pe iod. The HARMONIE-AROME also shows a good pe o mance on loca ion, howe e , yields wo se esul s o he less con ec i e h esholds (250 K and 240 K) and main ains he same esul s o he highly con ec i e ones (230 K and 220 K). O e all, he SAL alues a e e y good o he BT, being he 250 K and 240 K h esholds he bes pe o me s. Bliˇ zˇ n´ ak e al. (2017) diagnose and p e- dic he deep con ec i e cloud and hea y ain all e olu ion o some con ec i e s o ms wi h he COSMO model using simila BT ields o his wo k. They ob ain esul s indica ing s ong con ec i e ac i i y wi h e y low BTs (210–240 K) using a h eshold a ound 223 K. Thei FSS alues (~ 0.5 in a e age) a e ob ained when he scales end o be la ges and he h eshold BT alues end o be lowe (〈220K). In ou case, he FSS alues (Fig. 6d) con i m he 250 K as he bes h eshold wi h qui e simila esul s o 240 K, p oducing he bes sco e when combined wi h he la ges scale window. Ne e heless, i mus be no ed ha he bes FSS o he pos -STT is lowe han he bes p e-STT. E alua ing he SAL o CTH (Fig. 6b), he same beha io is ound as o he p e-STT pe iod. The ampli ude and loca ion a e iden ical and Fig. 3. SAL esul s o he a) BT, b) CTH, and c) accumula ed p ecipi a ion du ing he p e-STT pe iod. Medians o HARMONIE-AROME associa ed o each h eshold a e depic ed in colo ed dashed lines. C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 7 e y close o 0 o e e y h eshold, wi h a sligh o e es ima ion on ampli ude. The s uc u e p esen s a smalle dispe sion his pe iod, bu s ill showing clea di e ences be ween h esholds. As seen o he p e- STT pe iod, he mos con ec i e h eshold (8000 m) yields he wo s esul o s uc u e, wi h a la ge unde es ima ion o size, while he 5000 m h eshold p esen s an almos pe ec s uc u e. The FSS (Fig. 6e) e- sul s con i m his h eshold as he bes pe o me , al hough he esul s a e e y close o hose o 6000 m. As he p ecipi a ion ield usually p esen s mo e spa ial a iabili y han he cloudiness ield, he sco es o he simula ion esul s a e Fig. 4. Same as Fig. 1 excep o he pos -STT pe iod. Fig. 5. Same as Fig. 2 excep o he pos -STT pe iod. C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 8 ce ainly wo se compa ed o hose o he sa elli e image y. The e o e, in con as wi h he p e ious a iables, he accumula ed p ecipi a ion yields a majo di e ence be ween p e-STT and pos -STT. The SAL o p ecipi a ion (Fig. 6c) shows a e y good pe o mance on loca ion, bu a de e io a ion on s uc u e and ampli ude. The s uc u e p esen s a la ge dispe sion be ween he h esholds o his pe iod, and u ns in o o e - es ima ing he p ecipi a ion, al hough he 25 mm h eshold achie es an almos pe ec sco e. The ampli ude also goes in o he o e es ima ion o he a iable, as expec ed om p e ious esul s, p esen ing a lowe dispe sion han in he p e-STT pe iod, bu wi h la ge medians. The FSS (Fig. 6 ) clea ly e lec s he poo pe o mance o he simula ion wi h he accumula ed p ecipi a ion pos -STT. Bliˇ zˇ n´ ak e al. (2017) ob ain FSS a e aged alues a ound 0.3 when using he 5 mm h eshold o e i y he simula ed p ecipi a ion o deep con ec i e clouds. As a o emen ioned, da a assimila ion is conside ed in hei s udy, which can signi ican ly imp o e o ecas s om NWP models, as pe Milan e al. (2008) and Sokol (2009). In ou case, no da a assimila ion is aken in o accoun ; ne e heless, FSS a ound 0.22 is ob ained o 25 mm, i.e., o a e y s ong con ec i e ac i i y. 4. Conclusions The HARMONIE-AROME model is e alua ed in he simula ion o he con ec ion associa ed o a STT occu ed in Oc obe 2014 nea he Ca- na y Islands. A e i ica ion o he simula ions is done a p e-STT and pos -STT pe iods agains se e al sa elli e obse a ions, i.e., he BT obse ed in he 10.8 μ m long-wa e IR channel, he CTH de i ed by NWC-SAF and he accumula ed p ecipi a ion IMERG da a de eloped by NASA. The e i ica ion includes se e al skill sco es and objec -o ien ed me ics, spa ially compu ed and depic ed o analyze he model’s abili y and skill ulness when ep oducing he BT, CTH and accumula ed p ecipi a ion. The esul s show ha he con ec i e s uc u es a e app op ia ely ep oduced by he HARMONIE-AROME model wi h a good le el o ac- cu acy compa ed o he sa elli e obse a ions. The esul s a e clea e and mo e obus o he pos -STT pe iod, when he sys em has al eady unde gone he ansi ion, mos p obably due o he associa ed deep- con ec ion du ing he p e-STT pe iod. F om he BT assessmen , he HARMONIE-AROME model ends o simula e smalle s uc u es, especially a he p e-STT s age, wi h a e y good pe o mance on loca ion and small e o s in ampli ude, deno ing a gene alized o e es ima ion, mos e iden in he co e o he cyclone du ing he p e-STT. These esul s a e in acco dance wi h Qui i´ an- He n´ andez e al. (2021). Conce ning he CTH analysis, he s uc u es a e again unde - es ima ed, wi h a a iable le el o accu acy depending on he con ec i e h eshold e alua ed. The dispe sion is lowe o he pos -STT pe iod, once again showing he in luence o deep-mois con ec ion on he model’s s abili y. The simula ion p ope ly cap u es he heigh s, wi h only a small o e es ima ion, and pe o ms e y well on he loca ion o he cloud ops. The accumula ed p ecipi a ion esul s ha e a no able dependance on he p e-STT and pos -STT s ages. Also, he pe o mance is clea ly wo se han he o he wo a iables, which would be expec ed because o he na u e o he a iable and he challenge in i s simula ion in an ex eme e en like a cyclone. In gene al, he basic cha ac e is ics o sa elli e and simula ed accumula ed p ecipi a ion ields a e simila ; howe e , di - e ences be ween he p ecipi a ion co e posi ions a e la ge han in he BT simula ed ield. The accumula ed p ecipi a ion p esen s an accep - able pe o mance on ampli ude o he p e-STT pe iod, wi h a la ge o e es ima ion du ing he pos -STT s age. S uc u es end o be smalle han obse ed be o e he ansi ion, bu la ge a e i , al hough s ill wi h an accep able sco e. On he o he hand, loca ion pe o ms e y well on bo h pe iods. Due o he di icul y o acqui ing obse a ional da a in he icini y o such an in ense cyclone, i is o en a challenge o alida e nume ical model simula ions. O e all, he sa is ac o y esul s ob ained om he HARMONIE-AROME model using sa elli e da a lea e he doo open o he possibili y o ci cum en ing his p oblem and con inuing o look o ways o imp o e he simula ions. To his end, i would be e y in e - es ing o ex end his s udy o o he STTs and e i ica ion me hods, and also o e alua e da a assimila ion. The p omising esul s ob ained in his s udy mo i a e us o u he deepen he analysis o cyclones associa ed wi h opical ansi ion p ocesses using high- esolu ion nume ical Fig. 6. Same as Fig. 3 excep o he pos -STT pe iod. C. Cal o-Sancho e al. A mosphe ic Resea ch 290 (2023) 106794 9 models. Decla a ion o Compe ing In e es The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence he wo k epo ed in his pape . 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