Unveiling the role of storm surges as a driver of flooding on the western Mediterranean: a case study of the Ebro Delta

Vol.:(0123456789)
Na u al Haza ds
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11069-024-06984-5
ORIGINAL PAPER
Un eiling he ole o s o m su ges asad i e o  looding
on hewes e n Medi e anean: acase s udy o  heEb o Del a
Ru Rome o‑Ma ín1 · Ma cSanuy1 · JoséA.Jiménez1
Recei ed: 11 June 2024 / Accep ed: 20 Oc obe 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Abs ac
S o m su ges in he Wes e n Medi e anean a e gene ally low in magni ude, making hei
con ibu ion o coas al looding less signi ican compa ed o wa e o e opping. None he-
less, low-lying, shel e ed coas s such as del as and we lands, which a e equen along he
Medi e anean basin a e pa icula ly ulne able o s o m su ges. This s udy, ocusing on
he Eb o Del a as ep esen a i e o his ype o coas al en i onmen , in es iga es he lood-
ing caused by s o m su ge alone and in conjunc ion wi h o he non-wa e ela ed ac o s
like as onomical ides and sea le el ise (SLR), using he LISFLOOD-FP model. The ind-
ings highligh he signi ican looding po en ial o s o m su ges on passi e, and unp o ec ed
coas s, while also indica e ha as onomical ides ha e a mino e ec on lood ex en unde
p e alen mic o idal condi ions. SLR g ea ly inc eases he impac o s o m su ges, ampli y-
ing empo a y inunda ion in he sho e m and becoming he dominan ac o o e ime.
The s udy unde sco es he impo ance o accu a ely ep esen ing su ge du a ion and small
opog aphic ea u es in lood models o ensu e obus coas al inunda ion assessmen s in
low-lying a eas.
Keywo ds S o m su ge· Coas al plain· Shel e ed coas s· SLR· Inunda ion· Flood
modelling
1 In oduc ion
S o m su ges a e among he mos impo an coas al haza ds because o hei signi ican
ole in looding ac oss he wo ld’s coas lines (e.g. Nicholls 2006; Muis e al. 2016). They
occu because o a mosphe ic p essu e luc ua ions (lowe ing) and landwa d-blowing
winds du ing s o ms, which cause wa e le els a he sho eline o ise by se e al me es,
pa icula ly unde he in luence o hu icanes (Smi h and Wa d 1998). Howe e , in he
Medi e anean basin, excep o he Ad ia ic Sea, hei a e age magni ude is below 0.3m
(e.g. Ma cos e al. 2009; And oulidakis e al. 2015), a si ua ion ha is no expec ed o
a y du ing his cen u y due o clima e change (Con e and Lionello 2013; And oulidakis
* Ru Rome o-Ma ín
[email p o ec ed]
1 Labo a o i d’Enginye ia Ma í ima, Uni e si a Poli ècnica de Ca alunya·Ba celonaTech,
Ba celona, Spain
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e al. 2015; Vousdoukas e al. 2016). In he Wes e n Medi e anean, eco ded s o m su ge
magni udes can each up o app oxima ely 0.50m, as e idenced by he impac o S o m
Glo ia in Janua y 2020 along he Spanish Medi e anean coas (Pé ez-Gómez e al. 2021).
Howe e , du ing ex eme s o ms, he magni ude is no ably lowe han ha o he wa e-
induced un-up (Mendoza and Jiménez 2009). Consequen ly, s o m su ges a e no expec ed
o con ibu e di ec ly o coas al looding; a he , i is hei in e ac ion wi h s o m wa es ha
becomes ele an (Sayol and Ma cos 2018). As an example, Agulles e al. (2021) analysed
beach looding in he Balea ic Islands unde a ious s o m condi ions, including he e ec s
o sea le el ise (SLR), and de e mined ha s o m su ges con ibu ed app oxima ely 10%
o he es ima ed inunda ion o he sho eline.
The ela i ely low magni ude o s o m su ges compa ed o he na u al ele a ion o
be ms and dunes along sandy beaches sugges s ha hei impac will p ima ily be el in
e y low-lying a eas (K es eni is e al. 2011; And oulidakis e al. 2023). In his ega d,
he Medi e anean Basin encompasses nume ous low-lying coas al ea u es, such as del as,
we lands, and lagoons. These a eas exhibi e y low opog aphy and a e o en (pa ially o
ully) bo de ed by passi e coas lines comp ising sil and muddy sedimen s. Unlike sandy
coas s, hese passi e sho es ha e a low dynamic because o hei shel e ed loca ion esul s
in educed exposu e o wa e ac ion. As a consequence, unless ecei ing signi ican sedi-
men inpu con ibu ing o hei e ical acc e ion, hei educed dynamic esul s in a lack
o mo phological esponse o SLR. This lack o dynamic adjus men , combined wi h hei
low ele a ion, makes hem pa icula ly ulne able o e en small inc eases in wa e le -
els (e.g. New on e al. 2014; An onioli e al. 2020; López-Dó iga and Jiménez 2020). As
SLR p og esses, in addi ion o he ising isk o pe manen inunda ion (e.g. An onioli e al.
2020), he ela i e impac o s o m su ge-induced looding will inc ease. Lowe su ges will
each he same o al wa e le els as la ge su ges do oday, signi ican ly inc easing he like-
lihood o looding e en s (e.g. Passe i e al. 2015). In his con ex , analysing su ge-induced
inunda ion in isola ion becomes c ucial o be e assessing he adap a ion needs equi ed
o add ess his speci ic h ea , bo h now and in u u e SLR scena ios. Despi e hei limi ed
ex en compa ed o sandy coas lines, hese passi e a eas hold signi ican ecological alue
(Pé ez-Ruza a e al. 2011), and ace subs an ial h ea s (e.g. Taylo e al. 2021; Ma ínez-
Megías and Rico 2022). The e o e, assessing hese isks is essen ial o de e mining he
need o a ge ed adap a ion measu es.
Among hese a eas, he Eb o Del a s ands ou as one o he mos impo an low-lying
egions in he Wes e n Medi e anean, cha ac e ised by i s ich ecological alue and ex en-
si e ag icul u al p oduc ion. Wi h a coas line 50km long, he del a exhibi s a mo phol-
ogy highly ulne able o coas al p ocesses ope a ing ac oss a ious ime scales (Sánchez-
A cilla e al. 1998), as app oxima ely 50% o i s del aic plain lies below 0.5 m abo e
mean sea le el, making i suscep ible o s o m impac s. Jiménez e al. (2012) e iewed
he di e se impac s o s o ms along he del a coas , emphasising ha he mos signi ican
impac s occu when eas e n wa e s o ms coincide wi h su ged wa e le els (see also G ases
e al. 2020). Valdemo o e al. (2007) highligh ed he combined e ec s o su ges and wa e
s o ms on he inunda ion o coas al lagoons along he ou e del aic coas . Al a ado-Aguila
e al. (2012) es ima ed he po en ial looding o he del a unde di e en SLR scena ios,
and Sayol and Ma cos (2018) assessed del a inunda ion conside ing he combined con i-
bu ion o su ges, wa es, and SLR.
No ably, no speci ic s udies ha e in es iga ed he isola ed impac o s o m su ges on he
Eb o del a looding. Howe e , pa o he del a is bo de ed by a passi e coas line, shel e ed
om wa e ac ion, including he bayside sho es along wo semi-enclosed lagoons. This
a ea is cha ac e ised by a e y low-lying, muddy/sil y plain wi h channels and low banks,
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making i a ep esen a i e model o low-lying Medi e anean coas al zones. These ea u es
p o ide an ideal se ing o in es iga e he po en ial in luence o su ges on episodic looding.
Wi hin his con ex and o ill he abo e-desc ibed gap, he main aim o his s udy was
o e alua e he ole o s o m su ges, in he absence o wa es, in d i ing looding along
he shel e ed sho eline o he Eb o Del a. Secondly, he s udy also in es iga ed he com-
pounding e ec s o wa e le el a ia ions a ibu ed o o he ac o s ope a ing o e di e en
imescales, such as as onomical ides and SLR on su ge-induced looding. This analysis
enabled us o assess he impac on he s udy a ea as well as he po en ial signi icance o
s o m su ges in d i ing looding o low-lying coas al plains unde ypical Medi e anean
condi ions. F om he p ac ical s andpoin , he esul ing insigh s a e c ucial o de eloping
adap a ion s a egies in he Eb o Del a o mi iga e he impac s o SLR, aligning wi h ongo-
ing e o s led by he Spanish Minis y o En i onmen (CEDEX 2021).
The adop ed app oach in ol ed simula ing he inunda ion o he del aic plain unde ep-
esen a i e s o m su ge condi ions in he NW Medi e anean. These ep esen a i e su ge
condi ions we e de i ed om an ex eme wa e le el clima e and calcula ed using a long
ime-se ies o hindcas ed su ge da a. Since su ge inunda ion la gely depends on wa e le el
exceedance abo e a ce ain h eshold, we de eloped a me hod o es ima e s o m su ge
du a ion while conse ing he wa e olume abo e speci ic heigh s. To e alua e he ole o
as onomical ide in his mic o idal egion, we analysed he impac o su ge iming ela i e
o idal phases. Las ly, di e en SLRs we e conside ed o assess po en ial u u e changes in
su ge-induced looding.
The s uc u e o his pape is as ollows: (i) Sec .2 desc ibes he s udy a ea and he da a
used; (ii) Sec .3 p esen s he me hodology, wi h emphasis on he de eloped app oach o
assigning su ge du a ion o syn he ic e en s o ealis ic inunda ion modelling; (iii) Sec .4
p o ides a de ailed analysis o su ge-induced looding, including he compounding e ec s
o wa e - le el luc ua ions a di e en ime scales; (i ) Sec .5 discusses he esul s and he
signi icance o su ge-induced looding in he s udied en i onmen s; and ( ) Sec .6 p esen s
concluding ema ks.
2 S udy a ea andda a
2.1 S udy a ea
The Eb o Del a, si ua ed app oxima ely 200km sou h o Ba celona in he NW Medi e -
anean Sea (Fig.1), spans an eme ging a ea o app oxima ely 320 km2. I s opog aphy en-
de s i highly ulne able o looding, wi h app oxima ely 50% o i s su ace lying below
0.5m abo e sea le el and 70% below 1.0m (Al a ado-Aguila e al. 2012; López-Dó iga
and Jiménez 2020). App oxima ely 70% o he del aic plain is dedica ed o ice cul i a ion,
esul ing in an in ica e ne wo k o i iga ion and d ainage channels c issc ossing he land-
scape ha edis ibu es wa e h oughou he plain (e.g. Al a ado-Aguila e al. 2012). The
del aic plain is na u ally p o ec ed om inunda ion by a sandy beach inge along 50km o
he ou e coas line. Al hough he en i e del aic coas is highly suscep ible o s o m impac s
(Jiménez e al. 2012), his s udy ocused on he speci ic in luence o s o m su ges. Conse-
quen ly, he a ea selec ed as he s udy si e was si ua ed in he no he n hemi-del a, pa icu-
la ly in he icini y o a semi-enclosed lagoon known as Fanga Bay (Fig.1). The inne
coas line o he del aic plain is dis inguished by a passi e muddy coas shel e ed om wa e
ac ion by he Fanga spi , wi h he plain being pa ially sa egua ded by small le ees.
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Ri e managemen has esul ed in a ully segmen ed i e , wi h mo e han 97% o he
basin being egula ed by dams and ese oi s (Guillén and Palanques 1992, 1997). As a
esul , al hough he del aic plain is no g ea ly a ec ed by i e loods, he ulne abili y
o he del a’s geomo phology has signi ican ly inc eased in ecen decades owing o he
subs an ial dec ease in lu ial sedimen inpu om he Eb o Ri e (Sánchez-A cilla e al.
1998). Fu he mo e, like mos del aic a eas, i is subjec o subsidence, wi h mean alues in
he o de o 3mm pe annum (Ibáñez e al. 2010).
2.2 Da a
This s udy u ilised a ious da a sou ces o cha ac e ise mean wa e le els. S o m-su ge da a
we e ex ac ed om he hindcas mean wa e le els a a coas al node wi hin he s udy a ea
(Fig.1), sou ced om he Global Ocean Su ge (GOS) da abase (Cid e al. 2014). The da a-
se consis s o a 1-h in e al mean wa e le el ime se ies spanning 1950–2014, wi h a ho i-
zon al esolu ion o 1/8° (app oxima ely 14km). The da ase consis s o simula ed s o m
su ges by modelling sea le el a ia ions d i en by a mosphe ic p essu e and wind. I was
ex ensi ely alida ed using ide gauge measu emen s and sa elli e al ime y da a. As o-
nomical ide da a we e ob ained om a idal gauge si ua ed a he Ta agona po , pa o
he REDMAR ne wo k ope a ed and main ained by Pue os del Es ado (h ps:// po us. pue
os. es/? locale= en#//). The o al wa e le el da a o he s udy si e du ing S o m Glo ia in
Janua y 2020 we e acqui ed om simula ions conduc ed by Amo es e al. (2020). The SLR
Fig. 1 Loca ion o he s udy a ea on he Medi e anean coas o Spain: Fanga Bay in he Eb o Del a (Ta -
agona), and he GOS (wa e le el da a) node
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p ojec ion used o he a ea is based on he median es ima e o he IPCC AR6 SP5-8.5 sce-
na io, downscaled o Ba celona (Ga ne e al. 2021). This scena io assumes high g een-
house gas emissions wi h limi ed clima e mi iga ion e o s and ep esen s a wo s -case,
high-emission ajec o y wi h no addi ional clima e policies implemen ed.
The opog aphy o he si e was cha ac e ised using wo digi al ele a ion models (DEM)
wi h di e en esolu ions (2m x 2m and 5m × 5m), bo h de i ed om lida da a p o ided
by he Ca og aphic and Geological Ins i u e o Ca alonia (h p:// www. icgc. ca ).
3 Me hods
3.1 Gene al amewo k
The me hodological app oach used in his s udy comp ises wo p ima y s eps (Fig.2). Fi s ,
he s o m-su ge clima e was ob ained om a long ime se ies o me eo ological idal da a,
and hen syn he ic su ge s o ms o selec ed e u n pe iods we e ully de ined by assign-
ing hem a gi en du a ion and s o m shape (Sec .3.2). Subsequen ly, di e en scena ios
we e de ined in e ms o syn he ic su ges and compounding wa e le els, i.e., su ge- ide
and su ge-SLR (Sec .3.3). Inunda ion unde hese s o m scena ios was simula ed using he
LISFLOOD-FP nume ical model (Sec .3.4), which was p e iously alida ed by simula ing
he inunda ion o he s udy a ea du ing he Janua y 2020 S o m Glo ia (Sec .3.5).
3.2 S o m su ge clima e
Ex eme su ge e en s we e iden i ied by applying he peak-o e - h eshold (POT) me hod
o he GOS da ase . Following Sanuy e al. (2020), a double- h eshold s a egy was imple-
men ed. The i s h eshold, se a he 0.98 h quan ile o he su ge da a (0.24m), iden i ied
s o m candida es, imposing a minimum du a ion o 6h wi h a 24-h lag be ween consecu-
i e e en s o ensu e hei independence. Subsequen ly, a second h eshold equal o he
0.995 h quan ile (0.33m) was applied, e aining only he e en s ha eached his le el a
hei peak. Each su ge e en was cha ac e ised by i s peak le el and du a ion, de ined as he
ime a which he wa e le el exceeded he i s h eshold.
Once e en s we e iden i ied, hei p obabilis ic dis ibu ion was modelled by using he
gene alised Pa e o dis ibu ion (GPD) (Da ison and Smi h 1990), which is gi en by (σ > 0
and y > 0):
Fig. 2 O e iew o he gene al me hodological amewo k

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whe e ξ and σ a e he shape and scale pa ame e s o he dis ibu ion. Following Egozcue
e al. (2006), he peak su ge alues we e i s log- ans o med, as he log scale ep esen s
an imp o ed me hod o posi i e measu emen s wi h ela i e di e ences (Ta an ola 2006).
In addi ion o assessing he magni ude o s o m su ges associa ed wi h selec ed p ob-
abili ies o e u n pe iods (T), de ining syn he ic s o ms o lood assessmen equi es
conside a ion o su ge du a ion and shape. To es ima e he su ge du a ions o syn he ic
s o ms, he ela ionship be ween su ge in ensi y and du a ion was analysed o all iden i ied
e en s, i ing a powe ela ionship be ween e en du a ions and su ge peak alues. Subse-
quen ly, he assignmen o shape ( ime e olu ion) o syn he ic su ges in ol ed he assump-
ion ha e en s s a and end a he 0.98 h quan ile le el (0.24m), eaching hei peak a
he midpoin o hei du a ion. The e en s da ase was hen ca ego ised in o dis inc g oups
based on he magni ude o he peak su ge (0.33–0.35, 0.35–0.40, 0.40–0.45, 0.45–0.50,
0.50–0.55, 0.55–0.60, and > 0.60) o accommoda e po en ial a ia ions in shape linked o
su ge in ensi y. Wi hin each g oup, he pe sis ence o he s o m abo e di e en su ge le els
a 0.025-m in e als om he h eshold o he peak was e ained o each e en (Fig.3a).
No malising he su ge s eps and du a ions ob ained by he e en ’s peak su ge and o al
du a ion, espec i ely, enabled he cons uc ion o a syn he ic shape o each g oup (Fig.3b
and c). Mean alues o ela i e su ge we e compu ed a disc e e anges o ela i e du a-
ion (0–10%, 10–20%, 20–30%, 30–40%, 40–50%, and 50–75%) (Fig.3b) o acili a e he
assignmen o a ela i e su ge magni ude o each ela i e du a ion, he eby gene a ing he
inal s o m hyd og aph shape o each g oup (Fig.3c).
Fo a speci ied T, he p ocess in ol ed ob aining he co esponding peak su ge om he
i ed GPD. The su ge peak alue was used in a powe -law equa ion o es ima e he associ-
a ed o al du a ion using he powe i . Subsequen ly, o de e mine he s o m shape, he
peak su ge was used o selec he co esponding g oups, and bo h he peak su ge and o al
du a ion we e used o ansla e he s o m shape om ela i e o absolu e alues.
I is impo an o no e ha because s o m su ges will be solely u ilised o inunda ion
pu poses wi hou mo phodynamic eedback, he speci ic shape o he su ge is no as c ucial
as ensu ing ha he selec ed shape main ains he du a ion o wa e le els abo e speci ied
ele a ions h oughou he en i e e en . The de eloped me hod consis en ly achie es p ese -
a ion ac oss a ange o su ge in ensi ies.
3.3 Compounding scena ios
To e alua e he impo ance o he compound e ec s esul ing om a ious wa e -le el a -
ia ions in su ge looding, we conside ed he po en ial e ec s o bo h as onomical ides and
SLR.
To accoun o he compounding e ec o he as onomical ide on su ge looding, we
examined wo speci ic scena ios: one in which he peak o he s o m su ge aligns wi h high
ide and ano he in which i aligns wi h low ide. These scena ios cap u ed he po en ial
phase a ia ions be ween bo h componen s and we e cons uc ed by in eg a ing he sp ing
as onomical idal cycle ob ained om he Ta agona po ide gauge wi h he su ge e en s,
conside ing he wo speci ied combina ions.
To add ess SLR compounding wi h su ges, we used SLR p ojec ions based on
he IPCC AR6 medium con idence SSP5-8.5 scena io (Fox-Kempe e  al. 2021;
(1)
F
Y(y;𝜎,𝜉)=1−
(
1+𝜉
𝜎y
)−1
𝜉
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Fig. 3 Syn he ic s o m shape cons uc ion o each g oup o peak su ge magni ude. a Indi idual s o m’s pe sis ence o e 0.025 su ge s eps (S1, …, S4) is e ained. Su ge le els
ela i e o he peak and pe sis ence ela i e o he e en ’s o al du a ion a e calcula ed (e.g., ela i e su ge le el S2/Peak has a ela i e pe sis ence o (B* + C*)/To du ; whe e
aisle S4/Peak has A*/To du ). b Values ob ained om all s o ms in he g oup a e di ided in o disc e e anges o ela i e du a ion, wi h mean alues o ela i e su ge ob ained
o each bin. c Mean su ges a e used o assemble he syn he ic s o m, wi h he peak loca ion imposed a he cen e o he e en
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Ga ne e al. 2021; Kopp e al. 2023). We selec ed h ee- ime ho izons–2050, 2075,
and 2100–co esponding o SLR alues o Ba celona ( he closes loca ion) o 0.2m,
0.58m, and 0.85m, espec i ely, ela i e o 2014. Fo each ime ho izon, he wa e
le el scena io was de e mined by conside ing ha he mean sea le el unde which a
gi en s o m su ge occu ed had isen by he co esponding SLR.
The analysis was conduc ed o s o m su ges associa ed wi h e u n pe iods o 1, 10,
and 100yea s (T1, T10, and T100, espec i ely), which se ed as he baseline scena ios.
Subsequen ly, his analysis was eplica ed o scena ios ha inco po a ed he compound
e ec s o as onomical ides and SLR.
3.4 Inunda ion modelling
We u ilised he LISFLOOD-FP inunda ion model o e alua e he ex en o s o m-su ge-
d i en inunda ion (Ba es e al. 2005). The model employs a s o age-cell app oach on a
as e g id, allowing he app oxima ion o 2D di usi e wa es and momen um equa ions
o loodplain lows. By simula ing dynamic wa e p opaga ion o e he loodplain, he
model calcula es he wa e dep h in each g id cell a e e y ime s ep by employing Man-
ning’s law o he low be ween cells (Ba es e al. 2013). We used he nume ical lood-
plain accele a ion sol e ecommended o coas al modelling because o i s compa able
e icacy o sol e s in eg a ing ull shallow-wa e equa ions while main aining a eason-
able compu a ional ime, as demons a ed in p e ious s udies (Ba es e al. 2010; Neal
e al. 2012; Shaw e al. 2021; Le Gal e al. 2023).
A uni o m ic ion pa ame e (Manning’s coe icien ) o 0.04 was applied ac oss he
domain, ep esen ing he a e age alue o a ious land ypes, including paddy ields,
we lands, ba e soil, and wa e (Chow e al. 1998; Vieux 2004). Conside ing he expec-
a ion o soil sa u a ion du ing he simula ed e en s, no in il a ion in o he soil was
assumed.
The model was applied o he no he n hemi-del a, speci ically ocusing on he
icini y o Fanga Bay, wi h he domain o be simula ed shown in Fig.1. The in low
bounda y condi ions we e de ined by an hou ly wa e -le el ime se ies along he bay-
side sho eline. The emaining bounda ies we e designa ed ee- low condi ions. Fo
he compound SLR scena ios, he modelling app oach ollowed wo key s eps. Fi s ,
we pe o med an ini ial simula ion o es ablish a baseline condi ion unde he p ojec ed
SLR. In his s ep, a cons an ele a ed wa e le el co esponding o he p ojec ed SLR
was main ained, allowing he model o s abilize and each a new equilib ium, ep e-
sen ing he long- e m e ec s o inc eased mean sea le els. This s eady-s a e condi ion
se ed as a e e ence, cap u ing he di ec in luence o SLR. In he second s ep, a e he
new equilib ium was es ablished, we in oduced s o m su ge e en s as addi ional o c-
ing on op o he SLR-adjus ed wa e le el. This allowed us o simula e and analyse he
combined impac s o s o m su ges and he ele a ed sea le el, cap u ing he compound
e ec s o SLR and ex eme wea he e en s on coas al inunda ion.
Gi en he known in luence o Digi al Ele a ion Model (DEM) esolu ion on lood
models (Ba es e al. 2008; Seena h 2018) and he p esence o an in ica e ne wo k o
channels and le ees (Al a ado-Aguila e al. 2012), wo ho izon al g id esolu ions we e
es ed (2m × 2m and 5m × 5m). The esul s indica ed no signi ican di e ences, which
led o he selec ion o a mesh composed o 5 × 5m cells o e ec i ely educe he com-
pu a ional ime.
Na u al Haza ds
3.5 Valida ion
P io o u ilising he LISFLOOD-FP model o e alua e he a eal ex en o lood-p one
a eas unde he selec ed scena ios, he model was quali a i ely alida ed. This alida ion
in ol ed compa ing i s p edic ion wi h he obse ed inunda ion du ing he impac o S o m
Glo ia in Janua y 2020 (Amo es e al. 2020; Caballe o e al. 2024). This e en , cha ac e -
ised as he la ges coas al s o m eco ded in he egion, ex ensi ely a ec ed he Spanish
Medi e anean coas , esul ing in signi ican damage a ibu ed o looding and e osion haz-
a ds (Canals and Mi anda 2020). The Fanga Bay LISFLOOD model was applied using he
o al wa e le el ime se ies simula ed by Amo es e al. (2020) as he bounda y condi ions
du ing he e en . The eco ded spa ial a iabili y in wa e le els was conside ed by p e-
se ing he empo al e olu ion o he s o m a six loca ions along he coas al inge o he
s udy a ea and assigning hese da a o he nea es coas al segmen s (Fig.4).
4 Resul s
4.1 S o m‑su ge clima e
POT analysis iden i ied 136 independen su ge e en s o e he pe iod 1950–2014 (~ 2.1
e en s pe yea ). Figu e5 illus a es he i ed GPD o ex eme e en s, along wi h he
powe - i model o he ela ionship be ween he e en su ge peaks and o al du a ions.
The mean su ge peak o he 136 e en s was 0.42m, co esponding o a 1-yea T, wi h
an associa ed o al du a ion o 28h. The magni udes o he su ges associa ed wi h Ts o 10
and 100yea s we e 0.57m and 0.64m, espec i ely, wi h o al du a ions o 82h and 127h.
The su ge clima e and design alues o he selec ed Ts cap u ed he expec ed pa e n o
his Medi e anean egion, which is cha ac e ised by ela i ely low su ge magni udes.
Figu e6 shows syn he ic s o m su ge shapes, wi h baseline cases (Fig. 6a) showing
sligh a ia ions in p og ession owa d he peak owing o ca ego isa ion in o di e en su ge
Fig. 4 a Digi al ele a ion model o he LISFLOOD Fanga Bay model depic ing node loca ions (BC1 o
BC6) whe e bounda y condi ions om Amo es e al. (2020) we e ex ac ed, and co esponding (colou ed)
coas al segmen s whe e hey we e applied. b Time se ies o he o al wa e le el du ing S o m Glo ia in
2020 o nodes BC1 o BC6 as simula ed by Amo es e al. (2020)
Na u al Haza ds
5 Discussion
In his s udy, we examined he po en ial ole o s o m su ges in d i ing looding along
he wes e n Medi e anean coas o Spain. The geog aphical ea u es o his egion play
a c ucial ole in shaping he ex en o haza ds. Thus, he p e ailing condi ions a e gi en
by low-magni ude su ges, ypically no exceeding 0.50m e en unde ex eme condi ions,
and a mic o- idal en i onmen cha ac e ised by as onomical idal anges o app oxima ely
0.25m. Consequen ly, hei impac on na u al exposed sandy coas lines ends o be mi i-
ga ed, as he ele a ion o be ms and dunes ypically p e en s di ec looding in hese a eas.
To alida e his hypo hesis, we analysed he ole o s o m su ges ac ing in isola ion as a
p ima y d i e o looding in he Eb o Del a. Speci ically, we ocused on one o he del a’s
shel e ed passi e coas lines, whe e he geomo phology c ea es po en ial suscep ibili y o
su ge-induced looding. As p e iously men ioned, along he Medi e anean basin his ype
o low-lying coas al en i onmen is ound in he o m o del as, we lands, and lagoons.
Despi e hei limi ed ex ension, i is ele an o assess he po en ial impac o s o m su ges
on hese en i onmen s as hese a eas ha e signi ican ecological alue o e alua e he asso-
cia ed isks and de e mine he necessi y o implemen ing speci ic adap a ion measu es.
As expec ed, ou esul s e ealed ha e en s wi h lowe p obabili ies o occu ence
had a g ea e impac on he ex en o looding. Due o he shape o he p obabili y dis i-
bu ion o su ge in ensi y (Fig.5), he su ge magni ude inc eased by app oxima ely 50%
ac oss he ange o analysed e u n pe iods ( om 1 o 100yea s), equa ing o an absolu e
inc ease o app oxima ely 0.20m. Despi e his modes inc emen , he e was a signi ican
inc ease in lood ex en om 64 o 474ha (an inc ease o app oxima ely 750%). A sub-
s an ial po ion o his non-linea escala ion can be a ibu ed o he concu en inc ease in
he e en du a ion o highe -in ensi y su ges (Fig.5). The obse ed augmen a ion in bo h
in ensi y and du a ion led o conside ably la ge wa e olumes pene a ing he hin e land,
up o 770% ( om 1.08 hm3 o 9.39 hm3, o he 1-yea o 100-yea e en s, espec i ely).
This unde sco es he c i ical impo ance o accu a ely de e mining e en du a ion when
e alua ing lood ex en (e.g. Hö ken e al. 2020). In his sense, he cons uc ion o he syn-
he ic s o m su ge o be simula ed plays a c ucial ole in he assessmen o coas al looding.
Unlike app oaches employing basic geome ical shapes such as iangles (e.g. Pu is e al.
2008), he me hod p esen ed in his s udy does no aim o closely eplica e he shape o he
eco ded su ges. Ins ead, i ocuses on p ese ing he cumula i e wa e le el excess o min-
imise de ia ions ha may impac he o al wa e olume du ing he e en . Fo s o m wa es,
Callaghan e al. (2009) p oposed a simila app oach o ep oduce he du a ion o e en s,
while he unce ain y in oduced by using iangula s o m shapes has been analysed by
Duo e al. (2020) among o he s.
The disc epancy be ween he inc ease in he su ge magni ude and lood ex en was u -
he in luenced by he opog aphy o he a ea. Despi e being low-lying, he opog aphy o
he plain emains segmen ed and compa men alised by a ne wo k o channels and le ees
ha delinea e he ice ields. This in ica e ne wo k induces a pond-pool e ec du ing he
inunda ion, which is e lec ed in he a ia ion pa e n o lood dep hs o small changes in
su ge alues. Al a ado-Aguila e al. (2012) highligh ed he signi icance o his ne wo k
when analysing he inunda ion o he Eb o Del a plain due o SLR. Simila lood-con ol
mechanisms acili a ed by le ees, channels, and o he in as uc u e in loodplains ha e
been obse ed in a ious en i onmen s (T igg e  al. 2013). Unde such ci cums ances,
he esolu ion o he DEM used in lood modelling is c ucial o accu a ely simula ing he
e ec s o connec i i y and obs acles on wa e dis ibu ion ac oss he plain. Common g id

Na u al Haza ds
cell esolu ions, ypically in he o de o a ew ens o me es, p o e inadequa e in ep e-
sen ing hese complexi ies and o en lead o o e es ima ion o he lood ex en (e.g. Mu h-
usamy e al. 2021). In ou analysis, lida -de i ed DEMs wi h esolu ions o 2m and 5m
yielded compa able esul s, and we chose he lowe esolu ion o balance accu acy wi h
compu a ional e iciency (Xing e al. 2019; Mu husamy e al. 2021).
The as onomical ide cons i u es he de e minis ic componen o he o al wa e le el
du ing inunda ion in con as o he s ochas ic na u e o he su ge. Consequen ly, we simu-
la ed he compounding e ec by conside ing wo scena ios: aligning he peak su ge wi h
high ide, and aligning i wi h low ide. This app oach enabled us o assess he po en ial
ange o a ia ions in lood cha ac e is ics. Al hough he compounding e ec s o as o-
nomical ides and su ges may ha e a signi ican impac du ing s o m e en s in meso- and
mac o- idal en i onmen s, leading o subs an ial inc eases in lood ex en (Thomas e al.
2019), he wes e n Medi e anean coas , cha ac e ised by e y low idal anges and mini-
mal su ges, expe iences a compa a i ely less p onounced e ec . Resul s o he analysed
case e ealed an inc ease in he inunda ion ex en om 30 o 100% o s o m ides (su ge
peak du ing he high ide) when compa ed o scena ios wi hou idal in luence, wi h he
magni ude o inc ease co ela ing in e sely wi h he in ensi y o he e en , i.e., la ge o
e en s wi h lowe T. No ably, his inc ease was obse ed ega dless o whe he he s o m
peak coincided wi h high o low ide, al hough he e ec was no ably smalle in he la -
e case. Al hough as onomical ides exe a smalle in luence han meso- and mac o-
idal en i onmen s, hei e ec canno be neglec ed when aiming o accu a ely p edic he
expec ed lood ex en du ing s o m su ges.
The compounding e ec o SLR and s o m su ges in he a ea was examined by sim-
ula ing inunda ion e en s unde ele a ed mean sea le els o e di e en ime ho izons
using he AR6 SSP5-8.5 scena io. Al hough his me hod is commonly employed, i may
no accu a ely ep esen he e ec s on open sandy coas s owing o i s ailu e o conside
dynamic coas al esponses and mo phological changes ha ypically occu in esponse o
ising sea le els. Such simula ions usually conside he same ini ial coas al con igu a ion,
simply subme ged unde a highe sea le el, a he han allowing he sho eline mo phol-
ogy o adjus and e ol e as sea le els ise o e ime (G ases e al. 2020). Consequen ly,
such app oaches end o o e es ima e inunda ion le els (e.g. López-Dó iga e al. 2020).
Howe e , o passi e coas s such as hose analysed in his s udy, his app oach emains
plausible. This is because, in he absence o ino ganic and o ganic con ibu ions o e i-
cal acc e ion in he plain, no mo phological esponse o SLR is an icipa ed (Ibáñez e al.
2014). Consequen ly, he inclusion o SLR e ealed a no able inc ease in inunda ion ac oss
he del aic plain, consis en wi h p e ious analyses o SLR-d i en inunda ion in he a ea
(Al a ado-Aguila e al. 2012; López-Dó iga e al. 2020). Thus, o e he analysed ime
ho izons, he lood ex en co esponding o a 100-yea e u n pe iod will be expe ienced in
e en s wi h educed e u n pe iods, dec easing by a ac o o 1/100 e e y 25yea s om 2050
o 2100 unde he AR6 SSP5-8.5 scena io (Fig.12). Fo ins ance, inunda ion o e a 100-
yea e u n pe iod unde he p esen condi ions will occu as equen ly as an annual e en
by 2050. Subsequen ly, by 2075, he inunda ion co esponding o a 100-yea e u n pe iod
in 2050 will be akin o a 1-yea e en .
Howe e , upon close examina ion o su ge con ibu ion o u u e inunda ions, i became
appa en ha su ge ele ance diminishes o e ime. Speci ically, o he analysed s o m
e en s and SLR p ojec ions, he signi icance o su ge-induced looding was highes a
sho e ime ho izons, co esponding o lowe SLR alues (0.2m). Unde hese condi ions,
al hough he SLR componen i sel may no di ec ly con ibu e signi ican ly o plain inun-
da ion, he combined e ec o su ges ac ing on ele a ed wa e le els esul s in ex ensi e
Na u al Haza ds
looding compa ed o scena ios wi hou SLR. This obse a ion is pa icula ly pe inen , as
i leads o a no able inc ease in bo h he equency and ex en o looding e en s.
Fo longe ime ho izons, al hough he su ge con ibu ion o he lood ex en inc eased
compa ed o cu en condi ions, ela i e su ge signi icance dec eased conce ning SLR
(Fig.12). By 2075, passi e inunda ion d i en solely by SLR is p ojec ed o su pass he
lood-p one a ea o a 100-yea su ge unde cu en condi ions. Fu he mo e, by 2100, he
SLR componen is expec ed o exceed he o al lood-p one a ea associa ed wi h a pe iod o
100yea s by 2050. In essence, he cha ac e is ics o he s udy a ea’s opog aphy and su ge
clima e lead o he dec easing impo ance o su ge inunda ion as SLR alues inc ease.
No ably, hese e ec s may mani es ea lie han p ojec ed due o he ypical subsidence
o hese coas al plains (e.g. Vecchio e al. 2024); in he case o he Eb o Del a, subsidence
has been es ima ed o occu a a maximum a e o app oxima ely 2.7mm/yea (Rod íguez-
Llo e as e al. 2020).
The po en ial consequences o s o m su ges in he a ea a e p ima ily ela ed o hei
in luence on ice ag icul u e, he dominan land use in he lood-p one egion. I is c u-
cial o conside he iming o su ges conce ning he ag icul u e cycle. S o m su ges a e
mos equen be ween No embe and Ap il (Fig.13), while he ice p oduc ion cycle in
he Eb o Del a ex ends om Ap il o Sep embe (Fig.13, So iano-González e al. 2022).
Unde hese condi ions, he di ec impac o s o m su ges on ice c ops, de ined as he inun-
da ion o ice plan s wi h seawa e , is unlikely o be signi ican . Howe e , such an impac
could occu du ing a e, long e u n pe iod su ges in ea ly sp ing (Ma ch–Ap il), when he
p e- lood e ilisa ion cycle is unde way, po en ially inc easing soil salini y and, po en ially,
a ec ing ice p oduc ion (e.g. Casano a 1998). I is also impo an o no e ha ice ields
a e ypically inunda ed wi h eshwa e o manage soil salini y and p epa e o sowing.
The u u e consequences o s o m su ges will la gely depend on he ime ame unde
conside a ion. In he nea e m, signi ican impac s om s o m su ges alone a e unlikely
unde cu en condi ions (Fig.9), excep o a e e en s wi h long e u n pe iods, such as
Fig. 13 Top: Numbe o su ge e en s pe mon h. Bo om: ice- a ming calenda in he Eb o Del a (adap ed
om So iano-González e al. 2022). The op imal wa e egime en ails he pos -ha es p ac ice o ei he
looding ields (Oc obe o Decembe ) o allowing hem o d ain, ollowing a me s’ p ac ices
Na u al Haza ds
S o m Glo ia. Howe e , as he ime ho izon ex ends, SLR will inc easingly con ibu e o
inunda ion, subs an ially expanding lood-p one a eas (Fig.11). While he iming o s o m
su ge impac s is expec ed o emain consis en wi h p esen -day pa e ns, he ex en o
looding will likely inc ease, exposing a b oade loodplain and po en ially impac ing ice
ields mo e equen ly. This is due o he likelihood o sho e e u n pe iods o impac ul
e en s. By 2075 and 2100, SLR is expec ed o become he dominan conce n, su passing
he e ec s o s o m su ges. This shi will expand lood-p one a eas along passi e coas s,
in ensi ying he in luence o sal wa e on he hyd ology o coas al plains. Al hough his
poses challenges o ag icul u e, such as inc eased pe manen inunda ion and highe soil
salini y in low-lying a eas (e.g. Genua-Olmedo e al. 2016), i also c ea es oppo uni ies o
he de elopmen o new na u al a eas, such as we lands and ma shes, wi hin he inunda ed
zones (P ado e al. 2019; López-Dó iga and Jiménez 2020).
6 Summa y andconclusions
Al hough s o m su ges hemsel es gene ally do no con ibu e subs an ially o coas al
looding along he wes e n Medi e anean open coas s owing o hei ypically low magni-
udes, his s udy highligh s hei po en ial ele ance o passi e coas s shel e ed om wa e
ac ion. The inc ease in looded a eas du ing low-p obabili y e en s, as a combined esul
o he inc eased magni ude and du a ion o s o m su ges, unde sco es he impo ance o
conside ing bo h ac o s in isk assessmen and, he e o e, he need o adop me hods ha
conse e wa e olume o e di e en le els h oughou he e en .
The compounding e ec s o mean wa e le el a ia ions o e di e en imescales, such
as as onomical ides and SLR, inc ease he con ibu ion o s o m su ges o coas al lood-
ing unde Medi e anean condi ions. As an icipa ed in a mic o- idal en i onmen , al hough
he compounding e ec o as onomical ides was ound o enhance s o m-su ge looding,
he p ojec ed inc ease was mino unde he condi ions es ed. The compounding e ec o
SLR on s o m-su ge looding was ound o be highly signi ican , wi h i s ela i e con ibu-
ion a ying o e ime. In he sho e m, al hough he impac o SLR on plain inunda ion
was small, i s compound e ec subs an ially ampli ied he impac o s o m su ges. How-
e e , o e longe ime ames, he con ibu ion o SLR p edomina es, o e shadowing he
in luence o s o m su ges and becoming he p ima y ac o con olling plain inunda ion.
Fo he es ed condi ions, as he ime ho izon inc eased, an e en wi h a 1/100 sho e e u n
pe iod is needed e e y 25yea s o gene a e an inunda ion ex en equi alen o he looding
caused by less ex eme, mo e p obable e en s unde p esen -day condi ions.
Al hough hese conclusions may apply o o he passi e low-lying coas s o he Wes e n
Medi e anean, he speci ic cha ac e is ics o each local plain will modula e he magni ude
o he e ec s on he lood ex en . In he case unde analysis, he p esence o an es ablished
ne wo k o channels and le ees, ypical o an an h opized plain such as ice ields, plays a
c ucial ole in egula ing he wa e low ac oss he loodplain. Achie ing an accu a e ep-
esen a ion o eal-wo ld condi ions wi hou o e shadowing hese e ec s equi es he use
o a high-p ecision DEM. In ou s udy, his was accomplished using a 5m × 5m DEM
de i ed om lida da a.
The an icipa ed impac o inunda ion depends on local exposu e alues, al hough he
p edominan habi a ypes in hese a eas a e ypically na u al and ag icul u al. Na u al
en i onmen s a e gene ally adap ed o empo a y inunda ions, whe eas he impac on ag i-
cul u al land depends on he iming o s o m su ges ela i e o he a ming cycle. In he
Na u al Haza ds
case unde analysis, he e appea ed o be a lag be ween hem, sugges ing a limi ed di ec
in luence.
In conclusion, his s udy p o ides insigh s in o he cha ac e isa ion o he passi e bo de
o he Eb o Del a plain in semi-enclosed lagoons as an a ea sensi i e o s o m-su ge lood-
ing. Cu en ly, he a ec ed su ace a ea is p ima ily signi ican du ing long- e u n-pe iod
e en s. Howe e , wi hou adap a ion measu es, i is p ojec ed ha by 2050, he po en ial
lood-p one a ea will inc ease subs an ially, e en du ing annual e en s. Gi en hese condi-
ions, inc easing soil salini y may diminish ag icul u al p oduc i i y, p esen ing an oppo -
uni y o a ea ena u alisa ion by con e ing ice ields in o we lands in low-lying a ec ed
egions.
Appendix
See Fig.14.
Acknowledgemen s The au ho s wan o hank IH Can ab ia o wa e le el (GOS) da a used in his s udy,
and o P o . Ma a Ma cos (Uni e si a o Illes Balea s) o supplying simula ed wa e le el ime se ies in
he s udy a ea du ing he Glo ia s o m. We hank he p ojec ion au ho s o de eloping and making he sea-
le el ise p ojec ions a ailable, mul iple unding agencies o suppo ing he de elopmen o he p ojec ions,
Fig. 14 Flooded a ea in he co -
esponding SLR-alone simula-
ions o 2050, 2075 and 2100, in
Fanga Bay
Na u al Haza ds
and he NASA Sea Le el Change Team o de eloping and hos ing he IPCC AR6 Sea Le el P ojec ion
Tool.
Au ho con ibu ions RR: me hodology, o mal analysis, in es iga ion, da a cu a ion, isualiza ion, w i ing
(o iginal d a ). MS: me hodology, o mal analysis, in es iga ion, da a cu a ion, isualiza ion, w i ing (o ig-
inal d a ). JAJ: concep ualiza ion, me hodology, in es iga ion, w i ing (o iginal d a ), esou ces, supe i-
sion and p ojec adminis a ion. All au ho s con ibu ed o he in e p e a ion and discussion o he ob ained
esul s and o he w i ing o he inal manusc ip .
Funding Open Access unding p o ided hanks o he CRUE-CSIC ag eemen wi h Sp inge Na u e. This
s udy was conduc ed wi hin he amewo k o he C3RiskMed (PID2020-113638RB-C21, AEI/h ps:// doi.
o g/ 10. 13039/ 50110 00110 33) esea ch p ojec , unded by he Spanish Minis y o Science and Inno a-
ion. The i s au ho was unded by a PhD G an om he Minis y o Science and Inno a ion (PRE2018-
084174) and he second au ho by a Ma ga i a Salas pos doc g an .
Da a a ailabili y All da a used o in o m his s udy a e a ailable om open-sou ce da abases iden i ied in
he ex . GOS wa e le el da a we e ob ained om IH Can ab ia (h ps:// ihda a. ihcan ab ia. com/). Wa e
le el ime se ies du ing he Glo ia e en we e p o ided by P o Ma a Ma cos (UiB). Ta agona idal gauge
da a we e ob ained om Pue os del Es ado (h ps:// www. pue os. es/ es- es/ ocean og a i a/ Pagin as/ po us.
aspx). Eb o del a DEM da a we e ob ained om Ins i u Ca og à ic de Ca alunya (h ps:// icgc. ca / Desca
egu es/ Ele a cions/ Model-d- ele a cions- del- e e ny- de- 5x5-m). SLR p ojec ions we e ob ained NASA/
IPCC Sea le el p ojec ion ool (h ps:// seale el. nasa. go / ipcc- a 6- sea- le el- p oje c ion- ool).
Decla a ions
Con lic o in e es s The con ac au ho has decla ed ha none o he au ho s has any con lic o in e es s.
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