Václa Lídl
The Na u al Gas
Conund um
T ans o ma ion
o he Cen al Asian
Ene gy Secu i y Complex
a e 1991
KAROLINUM
Václa Lídl | The Na u al Gas Conund um
The s udy examines ene gy secu i y in he
Cen al Asia egion, wi h an emphasis on he
na u al gas sec o . The esea ch p esen ed in
he book a emp s o answe he ques ion o
whe he he a ious s a e ac o s in Cen al
Asia a e mo e inclined owa ds a s a egic
o ma ke -o ien ed app oach o ene gy
policy o mula ion. Answe ing his esea ch
ques ion aimed a be e unde s anding he
app oach o indi idual s a e ac o s owa ds
la ge in as uc u e p ojec s such as he
cons uc ion o he Cen al Asia-China Gas
Pipeline. Based on he heo e ical li e a u e,
a model was cons uc ed o assess he
na u al gas sec o in e ms o ene gy policy
o mula ion by indi idual s a e ac o s. This
model was hen applied o h ee case s udies
o key s a e ac o s wi hin he Cen al Asian
egional ene gy secu i y complex. These
a e he case s udies o Russia, China and
Tu kmenis an.
na u al gas conund um_mon .indd 1na u al gas conund um_mon .indd 1 02.01.2023 11:3202.01.2023 11:32
The Na u al Gas Conund um
T ans o ma ion o he Cen al Asian Ene gy
Secu i y Complex a e 1991
Václa Lídl
Re iewe s:
Mg . Ma in Ji ušek, Ph.D., Masa yk Uni e si y, B no
D . Ma cin Kaczma ski, Uni e si y o Glasgow
Published by Cha les Uni e si y, Ka olinum P ess
P ague 2022
Edi ed by K is ýna Kocou ko á
Layou by Jan Še ých
Typese by DTP Ka olinum P ess
Fi s edi ion
This wo k is licensed unde a C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional
License (CC BY 4.0), which pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep o-
duc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal au ho and sou ce a e c edi ed.
© Cha les Uni e si y, 2022
© Václa Lídl, 2022
ISBN 978-80-246-5265-8
ISBN 978-80-246-5285-6 (pd )
h ps://doi.o g/10.14712/9788024652856
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Con en s
Acknowledgmen s 7
No e on T ansli e a ion 8
1. In oduc ion 9
Resea ch Topic 9
S a e o he Resea ch 10
Ene gy secu i y 11
Beha io al pa e ns o s a e ac o s in he o mula ion
o ene gy policy 13
The ene gy secu i y complex 16
Ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia 18
Resea ch Design 20
Theo e ical F amewo k 21
S a egic-o ien ed app oach s. ma ke -o ien ed app oach 22
Theo e ical model o assessmen o he na u al gas sec o
in Cen al Asia 27
Cons uc ion o he Cen al Asian ene gy secu i y complex 28
Me hodology and Da a 34
2. Russia’s Ene gy Policy in Cen al Asia 39
Ene gy Resou ces 39
S a e Ac o s in he Ene gy Sec o 42
Ene gy Policy 47
Russia’s wes e n ene gy ma ke s 51
Russia’s eas e n ene gy ma ke s 53
Ene gy Policy in he Cen al Asian Ene gy Secu i y Complex 56
The Cen al Asia–Cen e Gas Pipeline Sys em 59
Russia’s dependence on Cen al Asian ene gy 60
Analysis o Indica o s 64

3. China’s Ene gy Policy in Cen al Asia 68
Ene gy Resou ces 68
S a e Ac o s in he Ene gy Sec o 73
Ene gy Policy 77
Ene gy Policy in he Cen al Asian Ene gy Secu i y Complex 81
China’s ac i i ies in Kazakhs an 82
China’s ac i i ies in Tu kmenis an 84
China’s ac i i ies in Uzbekis an, Tajikis an, and Ky gyzs an 86
Analysis o Indica o s 91
4. Tu kmenis an’s Ene gy Policy in Cen al Asia 96
Ene gy Resou ces 96
S a e Ac o s in he Ene gy Sec o 100
Ene gy Policy 104
No he n ou e 108
Eas e n ou e 112
Sou he n ou e 116
Rou e h ough I an 119
Wes e n ou e 120
Tu kmenis an’s Ene gy Policy in he Cen al Asian Ene gy
Secu i y Complex 124
Tu kmenis an’s ela ionship wi h Gazp om 124
Tu kmenis an’s ela ionship wi h he China Na ional
Pe oleum Co po a ion 129
Analysis o Indica o s 154
5. Conclusion 160
Findings o he Resea ch 160
Discussion 167
Bibliog aphy 170
Lis o Tables 190
7
Acknowledgmen s
I would like o exp ess my u mos g a i ude o all hose who assis ed
me wi h my wo k on his monog aph. P ima ily, I would like o hank
my o me supe iso , PhD . Jan Ší , Ph.D., and my amily. Mo eo e ,
I would like o ex end an acknowledgmen o my colleagues om he Fac-
ul y o Social Sciences o he Cha les Uni e si y, he Cen al Asia-Cauca-
sus Ins i u e in Washing on, D.C., Johns Hopkins Uni e si y, Masa yk
Uni e si y, Geo ge Washing on Uni e si y, Moscow S a e Uni e si y,
Uni e si y College London, Shanghai Academy o Social Sciences, and
many o he s. A special acknowledgmen belongs o he G an Agency
o he Cha les Uni e si y, which helped me signi ican ly in inancing my
wo k on his s udy.
8
No e on T ansli e a ion
The ans e o e ms and names be ween di e en cul u es is no only
a linguis ics issue. Knowledge o he ex a-linguis ic con ex is usually
necessa y. The ansli e a ion o names in his book was e y challenging,
especially because o he mul idisciplina y na u e o he ex and i s wide
e i o ial span. I wo ked chie ly wi h p ima y and seconda y sou ces
a ailable in English and Russian, bu I also ied o ga he all possible
da ase s o igina ing om di e en ideological and poli ical di ec ions.
The e o e, his monog aph wo ks no only wi h English and Russian
e ms and concep s, bu qui e o en uses e ms om local Tu kic and
I anian languages as well as he Chinese language. S anda d ISO ans-
li e a ions we e used in all cases.
9
1. In oduc ion
Resea ch Topic
The Cen al Asian egion expe ienced an inc easing engagemen o many
ex e nal s a e ac o s a e he all o he So ie Empi e, and e en ea lie ,
be ween 1989 and 1991. The main s imulus o his inc eased engagemen
was he unique oppo uni y o wo ld powe s o gain access o he e-
gion’s as mine al weal h. The Uni ed S a es and Russia con i med hei
oles as he wo mos impo an ex e nal ac o s in Cen al Asia ollowing
he e en s o Sep embe 11, 2001. Ne e heless, he Uni ed S a es los a
g ea deal o in e es in he egion a e Ba ack Obama became p esiden
in 2009, and his p ocess culmina ed in he e mina ion o he manda e
o he In e na ional Secu i y Assis ance Fo ce (ISAF) in A ghanis an
and he d awdown o oops a he end o 2014. A e ha , Russia and
China became he p incipal g ea powe s asse ing hei in e es s in
Cen al Asia.
The ene gy and economic in e es s o Russia and China in Cen al
Asia signi ican ly o e lap. Russia’s poli ical eli e s ill pe cei es he e-
gion as he “Sou h” o he o me Russian Empi e, o as Russia’s “Nea
Ab oad.” Fo i s pa , China has begun o e e o Cen al Asia as he
“Chinese Fa Wes .” Russia has been a emp ing o b ing he egion back
in o i s sphe e o in luence by means o “in eg a ion ini ia i es” such as
he Eu asian Economic Union and he Collec i e Secu i y T ea y O gani-
za ion (CSTO). China, by con as , a o s an “open doo policy” owa d
Cen al Asia. I s emphasis is on a ious anspo a ion in as uc u e
p ojec s known as he Bel and Road Ini ia i e.
The main opic o his monog aph is ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia
a e 1991. I pays a en ion o he ene gy in e dependence o he Cen al
16
The ealis pa adigm pe cei es ene gy policy as exis ing in a highly
ana chical sys em o in e na ional ela ions ha is p ima ily based on he
dis ibu ion o powe . Powe is in his sense based on ma e ial ac o s
and especially on he na u e o he ene gy esou ces. Among o he s,
Ma in Ji ušek, Tomáš Vlček and Filip Če noch igo ously decons uc
he s a es’ o mula ion o ene gy policy. Ji ušek designed he models o
he s a egic-o ien ed and ma ke -o ien ed ene gy policy ha a e applied
and de eloped in his book.24
Ma ke -o ien ed ene gy policy exis s in opposi ion o he p e iously
de ined s a egic o ien a ion. The ma ke -o ien ed model is based on
he assump ions o neoclassical and neo-ins i u ional economics and he
libe al pa adigm. Acco ding o Mo is Adelman, his model assumes ha
ma ke o ces a e he only hing capable o alloca ing ene gy esou ces
e ec i ely. I sees ene gy esou ces as no di e en han any o he goods
on he ma ke . This app oach is p ima ily ounded on he concep
o he “ a ional ac o .” Geog aphical o geopoli ical de e minan s a e
conside ed almos i ele an .25 Lynne Ches e e en goes so a as o say
ha e en o me ely discuss ene gy secu i y p e en s he ma ke om
wo king p ope ly.26 She unde s ands ene gy secu i y in he con ex o a
nega i e sel - ul illing na a i e. E in Ca e and Pie o Ni ola explici ly
a gue ha using ene gy esou ces as a ool o o eign policy is ine ec-
i e and ha dly e e happens.27 In sum, he s a egic-o ien ed and he
ma ke -o ien ed models o ene gy policy ely on opposing ideal heo e -
ical pa adigms. The eali y on he g ound is usually mo e complex and
sub le, as is shown in his book.
The ene gy secu i y complex
Ba y Buzan, Ole Wae e and Jaap de Wilde we e he i s o elabo a e
on he concep o he egional secu i y complex in 2004 in hei book
24 Ma in Ji ušek, Tomáš Vlček, Filip Če noch e al, Ene gy Secu i y in Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope
and he Ope a ions o Russian S a e-Owned En e p ises (B no: Masa yk Uni e si y P ess, 2015).
25 Mo is Adelman, The Wo ld Pe oleum Ma ke (Bal imo e: Johns Hopkins Uni e si y P ess,
1973).
26 Lynne Ches e , “Concep ualizing Ene gy Secu i y and Making Explici I s Polysemic Na u e,”
Ene gy Policy 38 (2012): 887–895.
27 E in Ca e and Pie o Ni ola, “Making Sense o Ene gy Independence,” in: Ene gy Secu i y:
Economic, Poli ics, S a egies and Implica ion (Washing on D.C., B ookings Ins i u ion P ess:
2009), 105–116.

17
Regions and Powe s: The S uc u e o In e na ional Secu i y.28 They desc ibe
he egional secu i y complex o he pos -So ie space, wi h he Russian
Fede a ion a i s cen e . Back hen, hey claimed ha Cen al Asia is
ei he a sub-complex in he amewo k o a b oad pos -So ie egional
complex, o a nascen egional secu i y complex o i s own. Buzan e
al. especially highligh he p esence o o he g ea powe s in he egion,
p ima ily he Uni ed S a es and China.29 In my wo k, I conside Cen al
Asia a ully- ledged egional secu i y complex, especially when i comes
o ene gy.
O he au ho s ha e con inued o de elop he concep o he egional
secu i y complex and applied i o Cen al Asia. One o hem is Eka e-
ina Klimenko, who ega ds Cen al Asia as a ully de eloped egional
secu i y complex o i s own and no jus a sub-complex o he pos -So ie
space.30 E geny F. T oi skiy analyzed how he p esence o Russia and he
Uni ed S a es in Cen al Asia in luenced he o ma ion and es ablishmen
o he Cen al Asian egional secu i y complex om 1990 o 2010. He
claims ha i was he Cen al Asian s a es’ in e ac ion wi h hese wo
g ea powe s ha esul ed in he o ma ion o his complex.31 Ma ek
Musiol analyzed i e secu i ized issues ha a e linked wi hin i s in e nal
s uc u e. These a e: wa e and economic issues; issues o ex emism, co -
up ion, and deg ada ion o s a e ins i u ions; he “new g ea game” as i
ela es o geopoli ics, oil, gas, and he ansi o esou ces; d ug a ick-
ing; and inally, en i onmen al and na u al challenges. The geopoli ics
o oil and gas is he essence o he hi d issue, he “new g ea game,” and
is o he u mos impo ance o his book.32
The concep o he egional ene gy secu i y complex is less de eloped
and less equen ly applied han he concep o he egional secu i y
complex. In ac , i has only been s udied in e y ew ins ances. Mikhail
Zelensky s udied he egional ene gy secu i y complex o he Bal ic Sea
Region wi h a special ocus on he impac o he No d S eam Pipeline 1
on i s secu i y a chi ec u e. Zelensky’s s udy is qui e simila o his one in
ha i examines he impac o a pipeline cons uc ion on he si ua ion in
28 Ba y Buzan and Ole Wae e , Regions and Powe s: The S uc u e o In e na ional Secu i y (Cam-
b idge: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 2004), 50–70.
29 Ibid: 397–436.
30 Eka e ina Klimenko, “Cen al Asia as a Regional Secu i y Complex,” Cen al Asia and he
Caucasus 12, no. 4 (2011): 7–20.
31 E geny F. T oi skiy, “Cen al Asian Regional Secu i y Complex: The Impac o Russian and
US Policies,” Global Socie y 29, no. 1 (2014): 2–22.
32 Ma ek Musiol, “Pos -So ie Cen al Asia as Unique Regional Secu i y Complex,” The Polish
Qua e ly o In e na ional A ai s 24, no. 4 (2015): 59–68.
18
a egional ene gy secu i y complex.33 Fo his pa , Jack Sha ples applied
he concep o he egional ene gy secu i y complex in his s udy o he
bila e al ene gy ade ela ionship o Russia and Poland. As ansi s a es
o he complex, he added Bela us, Ge many, and Uk aine.34
As can be seen om his e iew o he li e a u e, he concep o he
egional ene gy secu i y complex is qui e new and unde used in academia
in spi e o i s p omising na u e, which makes iden i ica ion o addi ion-
al closed sys ems sui able o esea ch. Mo eo e , he concep appea s
ne e o ha e been consis en ly applied o he Cen al Asian egion.
The e o e, i s applica ion o Cen al Asia is a new s ep inc easing knowl-
edge o bo h egional ene gy secu i y complexes in gene al and o he
Cen al Asian egion in pa icula . This book applies he a o emen ioned
heo e ical models o he eal si ua ion in Cen al Asia.
Ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia
Al hough my esea ch in o he Cen al Asian ene gy secu i y complex is
en i ely o iginal, se e al au ho s ha e p e iously co e ed ene gy secu i y
in Cen al Asia om o he pe spec i es. Theo e ical concep s o ene gy
secu i y, howe e , do no seem o play a cen al pa in hei s udies. They
use ene gy secu i y, i a all, o explain and suppo a ious a gumen s
abou in e na ional economic o poli ical ela ions be ween he indi id-
ual s a es in he egion.
Ma léne La uelle35 and Sebas ien Pey ouse36 ocused hei esea ch
on he ising economic and poli ical in luence o China and i s impac
on he ene gy secu i y o pa icula s a es in Cen al Asia and he egion
in gene al. They claim ha China’s a en ion, as di ec ed o Cen al
Asia since he beginning o he wen y- i s cen u y, will ha e signi i-
can impac on egional economic and poli ical dynamics. Alexand os
33 Mikhail Zelensky, Changing he Ene gy Secu i y Balance in he Bal ic Sea Region: Building Regional
Ene gy Secu i y Complex and Communi y. No d S eam Gas Pipeline Case S udy (Tampe e: Uni e -
si y o Tampe e, 2009).
34 Jack Sha ples, “Russo-Polish Ene gy Secu i y Rela ions: A Case o Th ea ening Dependency,
Supply Gua an ee, o Regional Ene gy Secu i y Dynamics?” Poli ical Pe spec i es 6, no. 1
(2012): 27–50.
35 Ma léne La uelle and Sebas iene Pey ouse, China as a Neighbo : Cen al Asian Pe spec i es and
S a egies (Washing on, D.C.: Cen al Asia-Caucasus Ins i u e and Silk Road S udies P og am,
2009).
36 Sebas iene Pey ouse, Economic Aspec s o he Chinese-Cen al Asia Rapp ochemen (Washing on:
Cen al Asia-Caucasus Ins i u e and Silk Road S udies P og am, 2007), 46–69.
19
Pe e sen37 and James Cooma asamy38 iden i y China as he main i al
o he Uni ed S a es and Russia in Eu asia, wi h Beijing g adually be-
coming he mos ac i e playe in Cen al Eu asia. Pe e sen claims ha
China’s inc easing in ol emen in Cen al Asia is a bid o dominance
in all o Eu asia.39 All he au ho s men ioned belie e ha he impe us
o China’s in ol emen in Cen al Asia can be aced back o he issue o
ene gy secu i y o China i sel .
This book in ends o push he deba e on he ising economic p esence
o China in Cen al Asia o wa d, and o b oaden i o include he ene gy
secu i y o he mos impo an ene gy playe in Cen al Asia – Tu kmeni-
s an. The ene gy complex o Tu kmenis an has been ho oughly analyzed
by Ane e Boh .40 She ocuses he a en ion on he connec ion be ween
Tu kmenis an’s gas sec o and i s in e nal poli ics. Acco ding o he , he
gas sec o is he backbone o Be dimuhamedow’s egime and he p ime
d i e o Tu kmenis an’s o eign policy. Luca Anceschi,41 among o he s,
s udied he o mula ion o o eign and ene gy policies o Cen al Asian
s a es and how hey o e lap. He a gues ha when speaking o Tu k-
menis an, o eign, domes ic, and ene gy policies a e almos insepa able,
and ha ene gy secu i y in luences all o hem mo e han any hing else.
Shamil Yenikeye 42 and Ma a B ill Olco 43 ha e also signi ican ly con-
ibu ed o he deba e on he ene gy secu i y o Tu kmenis an and o he
Cen al Asian s a es. They ega d he pu sui o he secu i y o ene gy
supplies and secu i y o ene gy expo s as he c ucial ac o s de e min-
ing he beha io o he Cen al Asian s a es, as well as o China and
Russia.
The academic discussion o he ising economic p esence o China in
Cen al Asia and he ene gy secu i y o Tu kmenis an is di ec ly linked
o a hi d issue, he geopoli ics o anspo a ion in Cen al Eu asia. This
37 Alexand os Pe e sen, The Wo ld Island: Eu asian Geopoli ics and he Fa e o he Wes (New Yo k:
P aege , 2011), 10–36.
38 Jamie Cooma asamy, “China’s Wes wa d Pi o : Wha I Means o Cen al Asia and Russia,”
Medi e anean Qua e ly 20, no. 9 (2014): 48–59.
39 Alexand os Pe e sen, “Na odnaya espublika p e ashae sya impe iyu,” P o e Con a 1–2,
no. 58 (2013): 10–36.
40 Anne e Boh , Tu kmenis an: Powe , Poli ics and Pe o-Au ho i a ianism (London: Cha ham House
Russia and Eu asia P og amme, 2016), 20–35.
41 Luca Anceschi, “Analyzing Tu kmen Fo eign Policy in he Be dymuhammedo E a,” China
and Eu asia Fo um Qua e ly 6, no. 4 (2008): 35–48.
42 Shamil Yenikeye , “Ene gy In e es s o he ‘G ea Powe s’ in Cen al Asia: Coope a ion o
Con lic ?” In e na ional Spec a o 46, no. 3 (2010): 61–78.
43 Olco , Tu kmenis an: Real Ene gy Gian , 62–72.
20
deba e is especially in luenced by he wo ks o F ede ick S. S a 44 and
Alexand os Pe e sen.45 Thei wo k is e y s ongly cen e ed on he issue
o ene gy secu i y, and i inco po a es a ious poli ical and geog aphical
ac o s. Bo h S a and Pe e sen ha e always been a ac ed by he hea -
land-pi o heo y o Hal o d John Mackinde 46 and hey unde s and he
signi icance o ene gy in as uc u e in Cen al Asia acco dingly. S ephen
Blank47 and Richa d Pom e 48 simila ly emphasize he impo ance o
he opening o new ene gy co ido s in Cen al Eu asia. They conside
he enewed in e es in Cen al Asian ene gy esou ces since he So ie
collapse as a game-change in ela ion o he ene gy secu i y o all Cen al
Asian s a es as well as he adjacen g ea powe s – China, Russia, India,
I an, and Tu key.
As s a ed abo e, he h ee mos impo an opics in he ongoing
academic discussion o ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia a e he ising
economic p esence o China in he egion, he ene gy secu i y o indi id-
ual s a es in he egion, and he geopoli ics o anspo a ion in Cen al
Asia. This book aims o ollow up on all h ee o hese opics. The ene -
gy secu i y o pa icula s a es o he egion is he essence o his book,
along wi h he ising in luence o China in he Cen al Asian economies.
The Chinese in luence is s ongly el in he new ene gy in as uc u e
p ojec s in he egion. Mo eo e , as was men ioned a he beginning o
his subchap e , he concep o ene gy secu i y has so a only played a
colla e al o explana o y ole in he li e a u e. I almos ne e plays he
cen al ole. This book’s con ibu ion lies in pu ing ene gy secu i y in o
he cen al posi ion as i ela es o Cen al Asia.
Resea ch Design
This book examines ene gy secu i y in he con ex o he Cen al Asian
egional ene gy secu i y complex, o ESC, and in he con ex o he
44 F ede ick S. S a , “Looking Wes : China and Cen al Asia,” Tes imony Be o e he US-China
Economic and Secu i y Re iew Commission, Ma ch 18, 2015.
45 Alexand os Pe e sen, Russia, China and he Geopoli ics o Ene gy in Cen al Asia (London: Cen e
o Eu opean Re o m, 2011), 89–108.
46 Hal o d John Mackinde , “The Geog aphical Pi o o His o y,” Geog aphical Jou nal 23, no.4,
(1904): 421–437.
47 S ephen Blank, “Chinese Ene gy Policy in Cen al and Sou h Asia,” Ko ean Jou nal o De ense
Analysis 21, no. 4 (2009): 435–453.
48 Richa d Pom e , The Cen al Asian Economies Since Independence (P ince on: P ince on Uni e -
si y P ess, 2014).
21
cons uc ion o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline (TCGP). I seeks
o answe one o e a ching esea ch ques ion ha deals wi h he en i on-
men and he ac o s o he Cen al Asian ESC: wha is he p edominan
app oach o ene gy policy among he s a es ha make up he egional
ene gy secu i y complex o Cen al Asia?
S a es can display wo majo beha io al pa e ns wi hin an ESC om
he poin o iew o ene gy policy: ma ke -o ien ed beha io , ocused
on maximiza ion o p o i , o s a egic-o ien ed beha io , ocused on
maximiza ion o he ene gy secu i y o he s a e and o he o eign policy
and secu i y goals.
I he majo i y o he s a es in he Cen al Asian ESC display ma ke -o i-
en ed beha io , ha means ha he cons uc ion o new in as uc u e
such as he TCGP is dic a ed by ma ke compe i ion and has limi ed
poli ical implica ions. I s a egic-o ien ed beha io p edomina es, he
cons uc ion o new in as uc u e p ojec s is dic a ed by he need o
maximize ene gy secu i y and hence has clea poli ical implica ions.
This book endea o s o in e p e ene gy- ela ed dispu es be ween Russia
and Tu kmenis an, and China’s ising p esence in Cen al Asia, in e ms
o hose s a es’ app oaches o hei ene gy policies. Al hough a i s
glance i could seem ha i is only logical ha au ho i a ian egimes a e
na u ally p one o a o ing s a egic-o ien ed con ol and managemen
o hei espec i e ene gy sec o s, he academic li e a u e and business
p ac ice show ha ha is ac ually no he case. This is especially ue o
China, which displays he s onges p o-ma ke o ien a ion. Howe e ,
he ene gy policies o Russia, Tu kmenis an, and China ha e no ye been
igo ously s udied, which is he eason his book ocuses on he egion
hey inhabi and hei sha ed ene gy secu i y complex.
Theo e ical F amewo k
The p e ious chap e s p esen he opic o his book’s esea ch, i s el-
e ance o he mos impo an academic deba es abou ene gy secu i y
in Cen al Asia, and he main ques ion o be answe ed by he esea ch.
The ollowing chap e p esen s he heo e ical amewo k ha unde lies
he esea ch. I c ea es a heo e ical model o analyzing he beha io al
pa e ns o indi idual s a es wi h espec o hei ene gy secu i y. To
begin, i desc ibes he Cen al Asian egional ene gy secu i y complex
in e ms o he pos ula es o he Copenhagen School o secu i y s udies
and i s ollowe s.

22
S a egic-o ien ed app oach s. ma ke -o ien ed app oach
In o de o answe he esea ch ques ion abou he o ien a ion o he
Cen al Asian ESC s a es’ ene gy policies, his book c ea es i s own
models o he s udy o he na u al gas sec o . One heo e ical model
exempli ies he s a egic-o ien ed app oach o ene gy policy, and is based
on he assump ions and conclusions o he ealis school o in e na ional
ela ions. To begin, I p esen he p incipal ea u es o he ealis pa a-
digm, hen he s a egic-o ien ed app oach o he s udy o ene gy policy,
and inally, a model o assessing he na u al gas sec o ha I apply in
my esea ch. I mus be acknowledged ha his model expands upon he
model used in esea ch unde aken by Ma in Ji ušek in 2015.49
The ealis school o in e na ional ela ions, which is he ounda-
ion o he s a egic-o ien ed app oach o he s udy o ene gy policy,
is based on h ee co e assump ions. Fi s , ana chy is unequi ocally he
p edominan condi ion o humani y. O de , jus ice, and mo ali y a e
no he ule bu a he he excep ion. Poli ical powe is he one decisi e
ac o in e e y in e ac ion wi hin a sys em. Second, he mos basic ele-
men in socie y is a g oup. G oups come in o con lic wi h each o he
by i ue o hei indi idual na u es. G oups do no necessa ily ha e
o be he na ion s a es ha a e p edominan a p esen . In he pas , o
ins ance, he p edominan g oups we e ibes and empi es. Thi d, wha
p edominan ly mo i a es human beings a e conside a ions o powe and
secu i y.50
The ealis pa adigm u he assumes ha ene gy esou ces play an
indispensable ole in he o mula ion o he ex e nal policies o s a es
and a e unques ionably a sou ce o in e na ional powe . The mo e ene gy
esou ces a s a e possesses, he s onge i is. O cou se, a s a e mus be
capable o ex ac ing and anspo ing hose esou ces and he e mus
exis a su icien demand o hem.51 The compe i ion be ween s a es in
his a ea e lec s human na u e, which is agg essi e and sel ish.52 P o-
duce and ansi s a es will y o ha ness hei ene gy esou ces and
in as uc u e and gain mo e powe , while consume s will seek o gain
49 Ji ušek, e al., Ene gy Secu i y in Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope.
50 Robe G. Gilpin, “The Richness o he T adi ion o Poli ical Realism,” in: Neo ealism and i s
C i ics, ed. Robe O. Keohane (New Yo k: Columbia Uni e si y P ess, 1986), 287–304.
51 Je ey W. Leg o and And ew Mo a csik, “Is Anybody S ill Realis ?” In e na ional Secu i y 24,
no. 2 (1999): 5–55.
52 John Agnew, Geopoli ics: Re- isioning Wo ld Poli ics (London: Rou ledge, 2003), 69–75.
23
con ol o e he sou ces o ene gy. S a es and s a e ac o s pe cei e in e -
s a e ela ions as a ze o-sum game.53
The e a e wo ac o s ha in luence in e na ional poli ics in he
amewo k o neoclassical ealism he mos . These a e he ac ual powe
o he s a e ela i e o o he s a es, and he pe cep ion o he s a e’s
ela i e powe by i s uling eli e. Leade s o s a es, and no s a es pe se,
a e he p incipal ac o s in in e na ional ela ions. The e o e, a sys em is
c ea ed by he leade s o indi idual s a es.54 Acco ding o Robe Gilpin,
neoclassical ealism dis inguishes wo basic ypes o in e na ional powe :
na ional powe and s a e powe . Na ional powe is o en desc ibed as
he mili a y powe o a s a e, bu i is ac ually an agg ega ion o a ious
ma e ial ac o s such as g oss domes ic p oduc , he s a e’s sha e o wo ld
ade, and i s numbe o inhabi an s. S a e powe is he abili y o he
s a e’s ins i u ions o u ilize na ional powe o achie e i s goals. In o he
wo ds, a s a e wi h less na ional powe may be able o p ojec mo e s a e
powe by imp o ing he unc ioning o i s in e nal s uc u e and o gani-
za ion. On he o he hand, a s a e wi h subs an ial na ional powe may
p ojec less s a e powe o suppo i s o eign policy aims i i has a less
e icien in e nal s uc u e.55
Unde s anding he di e ence be ween na ional and s a e powe is o
u mos impo ance. Ha nessing he na ional powe o ene gy esou ces
in o de o inc ease s a e powe is a easie in hose s a es, whe e s a e in-
s i u ions di ec ly con ol i al en e p ises and i mly egula e he ene gy
ma ke . In ac , non-democ a ic s a es such as Russia and China e ec-
i ely u ilize hei ene gy esou ces in hei o eign policies, p ojec ing
hei s a e powe a beyond hei na ional bo de s, acco ding o Michael
Wesley.56 To e alua e ene gy sou ces solely h ough he lens o ma ke
mechanisms is possible only once hey lose hei s a egic impo ance.
The basic assump ions o he ealis pa adigm a e shown in Table 1.
The ealis pa adigm and i s implica ions unde gi d he s a egic-o i-
en ed model o ene gy policy. Any applica ion o his model o eal-wo ld
phenomena assumes ha he ene gy sec o is a s a egically sensi i e
a ea. S a es pe cei e in e na ional engagemen in his a ea as c ucial o
53 Kenne h N. Wal z, Theo y o In e na ional Poli ics (New Yo k: McG aw-Hill Highe Educa ion,
1979), 38–60.
54 Ibid, 144–177.
55 Robe Gilpin, Wa and Change in Wo ld Poli ics (London: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 1983):
1–23.
56 Michael Wesley, Res less Con inen : Weal h, Ri al y and Asia’s New Geopoli ics (Sydney: Black,
2015): 210–232.
24
Table 1: Basic assump ions o he ealis pa adigm
Powe is he one decisi e ac o in e e y in e ac ion wi hin an ana chical
in e na ional sys em.
S a es a e he p incipal uni s o social eali y. Indi idual s a es a e ine i ably
in con lic wi h one ano he because o hei na u e.
Powe and secu i y a e he p edominan human mo i a ions.
In e s a e ela ions a e a ze o-sum game.
Mili a y powe is he mos p ominen ma e ial ac o in luencing he poli ical
pow e o a na ion. Con ol and exploi a ion o na u al esou ces a e c ucial o
main ain a na ion’s indus y, and consequen ly, he s eng h o i s mili a y powe .
The ealis pa adigm is oo ed in he logic o classical geopoli ics. S a e
in ol emen in he ene gy sec o is c ucial. Ma ke o ces a e no seen as eliable
in suppo ing he s a e’s powe ; hus, i is he s a e ac o s who aim o con ol
esou ces and supply ou es.
Ene gy esou ces a e bo h easons o po en ial con lic and ools o esol ing
con lic s.
The inne p ocesses o s a es a e impo an , especially he pe cep ions
o he s a e’s ep esen a i es.
The e is an impo an di e ence be ween na ional and s a e powe .
Sou ce: Scheme c ea ed o he pu poses o his esea ch
hei su i al. I he e o e ollows ha such a sensi i e a ea canno be
le solely o he in luence o ma ke o ces. As a esul , s a e ac o s seek
o domina e ene gy esou ces (di ec ly o indi ec ly) h ough a o m o
“ esou ce na ionalism.”57 The s a egic-o ien ed model o ene gy policy
assumes ha bo h p oduce s and consume s desi e o gain con ol o e
he sou ces o ene gy, which c ea es a signi ican po en ial o con lic .58
Some s a es, such as Russia, I an, and Venezuela, sell hei ene gy
esou ces o p e e ed cus ome s o signi ican ly lowe han ma ke
p ices. In doing so, hei goal is o s eng hen hei in luence in a ge
coun ies o o s eng hen hei own secu i y, among o he hings. Ac-
co ding o Ca ol Sai e z, he se ing o he p ice o na u al gas shipped
om Russia o some pos -So ie coun ies in he i s decade o he wen-
y- i s cen u y was a bla an example o his beha io .59 Tha is no o say
57 Ji ušek, e al., Ene gy Secu i y in Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope.
58 Kla e, The Race o Wha ’s Le , 50–68.
59 Ca ol R. Sai e z, “The Ties Tha Bind? Russia’s E ol ing Rela ions wi h I s Neighbo s,”
Communis and Pos -Communis S udies 45, no. 3–4 (2012): 401–412.
25
ha all expo e s o ene gy esou ces p e e gaining geopoli ical powe
o e maximiza ion o p o i . Howe e , Ma in C. Spechle con incingly
shows ha he powe o an indi idual s a e canno be exclusi ely based
on i s economic powe bu mus also ely on o he geog aphical, poli i-
cal, and cul u al ac o s.60
I we conside he ene gy sec o in isola ion, he las decades ha e
shown ha he majo i y o s a es exe cise con ol o hei na ional com-
panies ha a e ac i e in his s a egic sec o o he economy. Based on
he e idence adduced by Ande s Aslund in he case o China, Russia,
and Tu kmenis an, as well as o he s a es o he Cen al Asian ESC, he
s a e di ec ly o indi ec ly con ols all key ene gy en e p ises.61 As o
2010, s a e-owned ene gy en e p ises we e es ima ed o own app oxi-
ma ely 70 o 80 pe cen o he wo ld’s na u al gas ese es and o con ol
85 pe cen o he wo ld’s pe oleum ese es.62
Ma ke -o ien ed ene gy policy is pe cei ed in his book as a comple e
opposi e o s a egic-o ien ed policy. The eali y is de ini ely mo e nu-
anced, bu o c ea e a wo kable and e ec i e esea ch amewo k, I
had o make his gene aliza ion. In con as o he s a egic-o ien ed
app oach o he subjec ma e , Mo is Adelman p esumes ha i is only
he ma ke o ces who a e able o alloca e ene gy esou ces e ec i ely;
hence, i is qui e ine ec i e o use hem as ools o o eign policy.63 O
cou se, i mus be emphasized ha bo h he ma ke -o ien ed app oach
and he s a egic-o ien ed app oach used in he s udy o ene gy policy
a e me ely ideal models o he pu poses o academic analysis. In a
eal-wo ld si ua ion, he wo ounda ions o policymaking a e usually
mixed in a ious p opo ions. In essence, he wo models ep esen he
dicho omy be ween a s a e-guided and a ma ke -guided ene gy policy.64
This dicho omy is summa ized below in Table 2.
60 Ma in C. Spechle , “Why Does China Ha e No Business in Cen al Asia?” China and Eu asia
Fo um Qua e ly 7, no. 2 (2009): 569–84.
61 Ande s Aslund, How Capi alism Was Buil : The T ans o ma ion o Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope,
Russia, and Cen al Asia (New Yo k: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 2007): 182–206.
62 An onio Ma quina, “An onio Ma quina on he Decei o Globaliza ion, Ene gy Secu i y and
Challenges o Eu opean Fo eign Policy,” Theo y Talks, Janua y 13, 2009, h p://www. heo y
- alks.o g/2009/01/ heo y- alk-25.h ml.
63 Mo is Adelman, The Wo ld Pe oleum Ma ke (Bal imo e: Johns Hopkins Uni e si y P ess,
1973).
64 Ji ušek, e . al, Ene gy Secu i y in Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope.
32
Table 6: T ade olumes be ween Kazakhs an, Russia, and China, 2012–2020 (mil. USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RF impo 6,747.2 5,875.3 6,388.5 4,547.5 3,509.2 4,515.0 5,162 5,602 4,899
RF expo 17,110.5 17,971.8 13,807.7 10,529.3 9,129.8 11,473.0 12,392 14,065 13,300
CN impo 16,484.4 14,373.7 9,799.4 5,480.1 4,214.9 5,777.9 6,272 7,823 9,004
CN expo 7,497.7 8,364.5 7,357.2 5,087.8 3,665.7 4,692.2 5,384 6,537 6,346
Sou ce: The In e na ional T ade Cen e
Table 7: T ade olumes be ween Tu kmenis an, Russia, and China, 2008–2020 (mil. USD)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RF
impo 100.1 45.0 148.0 142.6 183.8 139.4 90.9 71.3 331.2 83 155.0 151.4 320.3
expo 809.0 999.0 717.5 1,116.0 1,211.0 1,430.0 1,138.0 843.9 570.6 343 288.8 543.0 650.0
CN
impo 28.4 38.5 1,045.0 4,693.0 8,673.0 8,893.0 9,516.0 7,828.0 5,563.0 5,933 8,119.0 8,686.0 6,071.0
expo 801.9 915.7 525.1 784.1 1,699.0 1,138.0 954.3 815.5 338.5 361 316.7 431.0 444.7
Sou ce: The In e na ional T ade Cen e

33
Table 8: T ade olumes be ween Uzbekis an, Russia, and China, 2012–2019 (mil. USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RF impo 1,390.8 1,256.9 0869.8 0575.8 0,761.0 1,010 1,636.6 2,067.2
RF expo 2,324.7 2,803.9 3,113.6 2,221.9 1,965.0 2,620 3,382.7 3,974.2
CN impo 1,091.8 1,938.0 1,597.9 1,267.1 1,607.0 1,400 2,120.9 1,767.4
CN expo 1,783.3 2,613.4 2,678.2 2,228.8 2,007.5 2,721 3,539.4 5,052.0
Sou ce: The In e na ional T ade Cen e
Table 9: T ade olumes be ween Tajikis an, Russia, and China, 2012–2020 (mil. USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RF impo 68.3 37.9 37.3 52.2 26.4 24.6 55.2 44.3 41.0
RF expo 679.0 724.0 891.0 763.0 662.0 687.0 967.9 1,009.2 932.6
CN impo 108.8 88.8 47.7 52.0 31.3 45.8 57.0 55.4 34.4
CN expo 1,747.9 1,869.4 2,468.3 1,795.4 1,725.0 1,301.0 594.1 605.5 438.4
Sou ce: The In e na ional T ade Cen e
Table 10: T ade olumes be ween Ky gyzs an, Russia, and China, 2012–2020 (mil. USD)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RF impo 219.1 152.7 122.3 157.3 145.2 269.0 314.0 270.7 241.6
RF expo 1,784.6 1,989.2 1,779.8 1,271.6 799.8 1,360.0 1,239.9 1,362.3 1,316.0
CN impo 61.4 39.0 32.8 35.9 79.7 82.9 61.2 81.5 43.2
CN expo 1,210.3 1,432 1,098.5 1,029.0 1,464.9 4,460.0 1,942.2 1,733.9 736.8
Sou ce: The In e na ional T ade Cen e
34
Me hodology and Da a
This subchap e explains he me hodological amewo k o his book
s ep-by-s ep. Fi s , I de ine my subjec ma e as he changing ene gy
secu i y o Cen al Asia a e he dissolu ion o he So ie Union in 1991.
The choice o his b oad opic was based on my p e ious academic wo k
and a eas o in e es . The opic ela es o he subjec ma e o he ou
mos impo an academic deba es abou Cen al Asia: ene gy secu i y
in gene al, he o mula ion o ene gy policy, egional ene gy secu i y
complexes, and ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia. My analysis d aws on
he mos ele an seconda y academic li e a u e in which all ou o hese
deba es we e conduc ed.
This monog aph aspi es o con ibu e o all ou o he a o emen-
ioned deba es. As o ene gy secu i y, I examine egionalism in ene gy
secu i y as well as he poli iciza ion and weaponiza ion o ene gy esou c-
es. The beha io al pa e ns o s a es and s a e ac o s in he o mula ion o
ene gy policy a e a he co e o he esea ch in his book. I ha e c ea ed
models o s a egic-o ien ed and ma ke -o ien ed ene gy policy and
applied hem o he da ase s I ga he ed. The concep o egional ene gy
secu i y complexes is qui e new and is s ill a he unde de eloped in
he li e a u e. I seems ne e o ha e been applied o he Cen al Asian
egion be o e. The e o e, his book is a s ep o wa d ha demons a es
bo h he possibili ies and he limi s o his ype o esea ch and analysis.
Finally, he academic deba e on ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia spli s
in o h ee impo an subg oups. These a e: China’s ising economic in lu-
ence in he egion, he ene gy secu i y o pa icula Cen al Asian s a es,
and he geopoli ical signi icance o ene gy anspo in Cen al Eu asia.
This book ollows up on all h ee o hese issues. I s a gumen is no el
in ha i clea ly ocuses on he issue o ene gy secu i y. As i con ibu es
o all o he a o emen ioned academic deba es abou ene gy secu i y in
Cen al Asia, my esea ch should be o in e es o bo h academics and
poli icians.
This book ocuses on he in e dependencies in Cen al Asia in he
ield o na u al gas. This is because na u al gas has signi ican geopoli -
ical implica ions due o he echnical complexi y o anspo ing i . The
a ailabili y o na u al gas is a li mus es o a s a e’s ene gy indepen-
dence and an indica o o complex in e dependencies be ween s a es.
F om his poin o iew, Tu kmenis an is he mos impo an Cen al
Asian playe in na u al gas, as measu ed by i s abundan supplies o
na u al gas and i s abili y o expo i o ma ke s ab oad.
35
Since 1991, he ene gy secu i y o Tu kmenis an has been signi ican ly
in luenced by he cons uc ion o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline.
An analysis o he impac o he pipeline on he ene gy secu i y o pa ic-
ula s a es equi es a egional app oach. The ene gy secu i y o an ene gy
p oduce and expo e such as Tu kmenis an c i ically depends on i s
cus ome s and impo e s in he egion. The e o e, his esea ch wo ks
wi h he concep o he Cen al Asian egional ene gy secu i y complex.
I includes all i e Cen al Asia s a es – Kazakhs an, Ky gyzs an, Tajiki-
s an, Tu kmenis an, and Uzbekis an – in he complex, as well as he wo
mos impo an g ea powe s and ene gy impo e s in he neighbou -
hood – China and Russia. The egional ene gy secu i y complex is bes
analyzed wi h ega d o he in e dependencies o hese coun ies in he
gas sec o . This ocus helps o acili a e and na ow down he scope o
he esea ch he e p esen ed.
I ha e chosen o answe one o e a ching esea ch ques ion: “Wha
is he p edominan app oach o ene gy policy among he s a es and
s a e ac o s o he egional ene gy secu i y complex o Cen al Asia?”
Answe ing ha ques ion equi es an examina ion o he basic beha io al
pa e ns o he s a es ha make up he Cen al Asian ESC. My esea ch
hen builds upon he beha io al pa e ns and analyzes how hey in lu-
ence ela ions among he s a es o he ESC.
The p ocess o answe ing he esea ch ques ion i s equi es de ining
and cons uc ing a model o he Cen al Asian ene gy secu i y complex,
as desc ibed in he sec ion on he heo e ical amewo k in Chap e One.
The de ini ion o he Cen al Asian ESC is based on concep s used in
secu i y s udies. I is hen necessa y o de e mine he ac ual beha io al
pa e ns o he s a es o he Cen al Asian ESC, which could be ei he
ma ke -o ien ed and ocused on maximizing p o i s, o s a egic-o ien ed
and ocused on maximizing he ene gy secu i y o pa icula s a es o
he ESC.
I c ea ed a model o s a egic-o ien ed beha io ha I subsequen ly
applied o he s a es and s a e ac o s in ol ed in he Cen al Asian ESC.
The c ea ion o his model d ew on he concep s used in secu i y s udies
and he ealis school o in e na ional ela ions. I applied i o h ee o he
mos impo an ac o s in he Cen al Asian ESC as ega ds ade in na -
u al gas – Russia, China, and Tu kmenis an. The Tu kmenis an–China
Gas Pipeline cons uc ion had he g ea es impac on hese h ee s a es as
well. Hence, he co e o his book consis s o h ee case s udies o ene gy
secu i y and ene gy policy o mula ion – o Tu kmenis an, Russia, and
China. My model assumes ha ma ke -o ien ed ene gy policy is he exac
36
opposi e o s a egic-o ien ed policy and assesses he na u al gas sec o s
o he h ee s a es in ha ligh . The e o e, i a s a e does no beha e in
con o mi y wi h a s a egic-o ien ed policy, I assume i is beha ing in
con o mi y wi h a ma ke -o ien ed policy.
I a emp o answe he esea ch ques ion by applying he c i e ia
o he model o assess he Cen al Asian ESC na u al gas sec o . The
c i e ia a e he ollowing: he s a e pe cei es i s ene gy esou ces o be
s a egically impo an ; i pe cei es i s ene gy sec o as c ucial o i s
economy; i pe cei es i s s a e-owned ene gy ac o s as ex ensions o i s
s a e appa a us; i p e e s o ely on bila e al ela ions a he han mul i-
la e al ela ionships; i pe cei es he ene gy sec o as a ool o achie ing
he ends o he s a e; i pe cei es achie ing ene gy secu i y as a ze o-sum
game; i pe cei es ene gy dependence as undesi able; and i emphasizes
s a egic goals o e economic logic.
I looked o e idence o each o hese c i e ia as I p epa ed he h ee
case s udies on Russia, China, and Tu kmenis an and ha e summa ized
my app oach in Table 11. I mus be s essed ha he da a could lead o
a conclusion ha he ac o s o he ESC we e p edominan ly beha ing
acco ding o a s a egic-o ien ed ene gy policy, bu a he same ime
beha e acco ding o a ma ke -o ien ed policy wi h ega d o he con-
s uc ion o he TCGP. Mo eo e , some ac o s could be beha ing in
acco dance wi h s a egic-o ien ed policy and o he s in acco dance wi h
ma ke -o ien ed policy.
The ac ha his book analyzes ela i ely unde s udied phenomena
mean ha i equi ed hea y eliance on p ima y sou ces. I ga he ed
mos o my p ima y da a du ing my ield ips o Cen al Asia, Russia,
and he Uni ed S a es be ween 2014 and 2020, as well as om a ious
online da abases.
Among he p ima y da a sou ces belong ene gy s a is ics and a icles
published by ele an in e na ional o ganiza ions, go e nmen al o gani-
za ions, and ene gy- ela ed en e p ises. Apa om en e p ises di ec ly
in ol ed in he ene gy sec o , I wo ked wi h p ima y da a p oduced by
he go e nmen s and ele an minis ies o ce ain s a es o he Cen al
Asian ESC. These we e he Russian Fede a ion, he People’s Republic o
China, Tu kmenis an, Kazakhs an, and Uzbekis an.72
Addi ional p ima y da a conce ning he global and Cen al Asian en-
e gy sec o s can be ound in he publica ions o specialized in e na ional
o ganiza ions and agencies, including he In e na ional Ene gy Agency,
72 A lis o he mos impo an p ima y sou ces I used can be ound in he bibliog aphy.
37
he Wo ld Ene gy Council, he Uni ed S a es Ene gy Secu i y Council,
and he US Ene gy In o ma ion Adminis a ion. O he key sou ces o
p ima y da a include a ious media ou le s, bo h in e na ional and local.
Howe e , he da a om hose ou le s mus be analyzed c i ically and wi h
u mos cau ion gi en he high deg ee o go e nmen al con ol o e he
media in he s a es o he Cen al Asian ESC. The sou ces I used included
newspape a icles, commen a ies, and analyses published in he egion’s
leading media ou le s.73
In addi ion, his monog aph d aws on a mul i ude o seconda y
academic sou ces, bo h o he cons uc ion o he me hodological and
heo e ical amewo k o he esea ch and o ac ual in o ma ion. The
main seconda y sou ces a e p esen ed in he S a e o he Resea ch sec-
ion o Chap e One. I di ided he seconda y sou ces o da a in o ou
subg oups acco ding o he issues o which hey ela e: ene gy secu i y,
73 My mos impo an media sou ces we e: Nei alniy Tu kmenis an, Tu kmenis an. u, Fe gana. u,
Reu e s, BBC, China Daily, People’s Daily, Xinhua News Agency, Len a. u, Vedomos i, RBC and
TASS.
Table 11: Ope a ionaliza ion o he model o he assessmen o he Cen al
Asian ESC na u al gas sec o
Fea u e Fea u e p esen Fea u e no p esen
Ene gy esou ces pe cei ed
as s a egically impo an . me /mos ly me no me
Ene gy sec o pe cei ed as c ucial
o s a e’s economy. me /mos ly me no me
S a e-owned ene gy ac o s pe cei ed
as ex ension o s a e’s appa a us. me /mos ly me no me
Reliance on bila e al ela ions. me /mos ly me no me
Ze o-sum app oach. me /mos ly me no me
Ene gy conside ed o be a ool
o he s a e. me /mos ly me no me
Dependence pe cei ed as undesi able. me /mos ly me no me
Emphasis on s a egic goals
o e economic logic. me /mos ly me no me
S a egic-o ien ed policy. i majo i y me
= con i med
i majo i y no me
= no con i med,
he e o e ma ke -
o ien ed policy
Sou ce: Scheme c ea ed o he pu poses o his esea ch

38
beha io al pa e ns o s a es and s a e ac o s in he o mula ion o ene gy
policy, he ene gy secu i y complex, and ene gy secu i y in Cen al Asia.
I wo ked chie ly wi h p ima y and seconda y esou ces in he English o
Russian languages because o hei eady a ailabili y and my amilia i y
wi h hose languages. Ne e heless, I ga he ed da a wi hou ega d o
he ideological o poli ical o ien a ion o he sou ces.74
74 A lis o he mos impo an au ho s o he seconda y li e a u e and hei wo ks is p esen ed
in he i s chap e o his book in he subchap e on he S a e o Resea ch.
39
2. Russia’s Ene gy Policy in Cen al Asia
The i s o my h ee case s udies ocuses on Russia’s ene gy policy and
i s o mula ion wi h ega d o he Cen al Asian ESC. This chap e is
di ided in o ou main pa s: ene gy esou ces, ene gy ac o s, ene gy
policy in gene al, and ene gy policy as ega ds he Cen al Asian ESC.
The con en o hese subchap e s is based on my e alua ion o p ima y
sou ces and seconda y academic sou ces. The goal o his pa icula case
s udy is o sea ch o he ea u es iden i ied by he model as i ela es o
he na u al gas sec o , i.e. he pe cep ion ha ene gy esou ces a e s a-
egically impo an ; he pe cep ion ha he ene gy sec o is c ucial o
he s a e’s economy; he pe cep ion ha s a e-owned ene gy ac o s a e
ex ensions o he s a e appa a us; eliance on bila e al ela ions a he
han mul ila e al a angemen s; he pe cep ion ha he ene gy sec o is a
ool o achie ing he s a e’s goals; ze o-sum app oach o ene gy policy;
he pe cep ion ha dependence on o he s a es is undesi able; and an
emphasis on s a egic goals o e economic logic. This esea ch is a majo
s epping-s one in he p ocess o answe ing he esea ch ques ion abou
he p edominan ype o ene gy policy among he s a es o he Cen al
Asian ESC. The nex s ep in his chap e is an assessmen o he pa icula
indica o s ga he ed in he esea ch.
Ene gy Resou ces
Russia’s oil and gas indus ies a e among he oldes in he wo ld. The i s
oil wells on Russian e i o y we e d illed in he 1840s nea Baku, now in
Aze baijan. In he second hal o he nine een h cen u y, new oil ields
we e disco e ed, especially in he No h Caucasus and Cen al Asia. By
40
1900, he Russian Empi e was p oducing 40 pe cen o he wo ld’s oil
ou pu .75 A e he Second Wo ld Wa , hyd oca bon ex ac ion ex ended
in o he U al-Volga egion. In 1985, Russia’s expo s o c ude oil p o id-
ed 39 pe cen o all he ha d cu ency income o he So ie Union. In
1988, So ie oil p oduc ion eached i s peak wi h 12.5 million ba els pe
day.76 Howe e , a e he b eakup o he So ie Union, oil p oduc ion
d opped by 50 pe cen om 1990 o 1995.77
A p esen , Russia’s o e all pe oleum esou ces a e es ima ed a
80 billion ba els. This ep esen s app oxima ely i e pe cen o he es-
ima ed global ese es.78 Howe e , Russia’s p oduc ion as a pe cen age
o wo ld ou pu is much highe . As o now, i is app oxima ely 10.9 mil-
lion ba els pe day, ep esen ing mo e han 13 pe cen o he wo ld’s
p oduc ion.79 The es ima ed amoun o na u al gas ese es in Russia
is 32.3 illions o cubic me e s ( cm), which ep esen s 23.7 pe cen
o global ese es. This makes Russia he wo ld’s la ges na u al gas
expo e and he second la ges na u al gas p oduce a e he Uni ed
S a es. The o e all p oduc ion in 2016 eached almos 579.4 billion cubic
me e s (bcm).80
The key ex ac ion a eas a p esen a e he Volga egion and he Timan-
Pecho a egion in no he n Russia. The mos impo an na u al gas ields
in he Timan-Pecho a egion a e U engoy, Med ezhye, and Yambu g.
O he p omising ex ac ion si es wi h mid- e m p ospec s a e a Zapol-
ya noye, Yamal, and Sakhalin Island in he Russian Fa Eas .81 The mos
impo an gas expo pipelines a e he Yamal–Eu ope Gas Pipeline, he
Russia–Finland Gas Pipeline, he Soyuz Gas Pipeline, he B a s o Gas
Pipeline, Blue S eam, and No d S eam I. The e a e also new pipeline
p ojec s in a ious s ages o implemen a ion.82 I is expec ed ha he
p oduc ion o hyd oca bons in Russia will g adually mo e eas wa ds and
75 Vagi Alekpe o , Oil o Russia: Pas , P esen and Fu u e (Minneapolis: Eas View P ess, 2011),
1–159.
76 Hed ika Koďousko á, Pe a Kuchyňko á and Anna Leshchenko, Ene ge ická bezpečnos asijských
zemí – Ene gy Secu i y o Asian Coun ies (B no: Masa yk Uni e si y, 2012), 141–148.
77 “C ude Oil P oduc ion o he Russian Fede a ion,” OECD Da a, da a.oecd.o g/ene gy
/c ude-oil-p oduc ion.h m.
78 “Wo ldwide Look a Rese es and P oduc ion,” Oil and gas Jou nal, Decembe 1, 2014.
79 “Coun y Repo on Russia,” Ene gy In o ma ion Agency, www.eia.go /be a/in e na ional
/analysis.c miso=RUS.
80 Ibid.
81 “Mes o zhdenia,” Gazp om, www.gazp om. u/abou /p oduc ion/p ojec s/deposi s.
82 Russia 2014, (Washing on: Ene gy In o ma ion Agency, 2014).
41
u he no h in o he A c ic egions. Whe he ha would mean a shi o
Russia’s expo ma ke s om Eu ope o Asia is s ill unclea .83
Russia’s economy and especially i s hyd oca bon complex we e hea ily
damaged by he b eakup o he So ie Union. Russia’s ene gy consump-
ion ell by 14 pe cen in he i s hal o he 1990s and only began o
ise again om 2000 o 2010. In 2016, na u al gas cons i u ed 52 pe cen
o Russia’s ene gy consump ion, pe oleum cons i u ed 23 pe cen , coal
10 pe cen , and enewables 15 pe cen .84 Hence, he e was a signi ican
amoun o oil and gas a ailable o expo . Hyd oca bon e enues p o-
ided 50 pe cen o Russia’s ede al go e nmen e enues and cons i u ed
68 pe cen o he coun y’s o al expo s in 2013.85
The posi ion o na u al gas in he mix o he domes ic ene gy consump-
ion in Russia is being solidi ied by go e nmen al subsidies. Fo ins ance,
in 2016 he end-use cos o na u al gas on Russia’s in e nal ma ke was
USD 112 pe housand cubic me e s bu on he Eu opean ma ke i was
app oxima ely USD 550.86 Thus, i could be a gued ha he Russian go -
e nmen is buying he suppo o i s ci izens by subsidizing he p ice o
na u al gas. The esul is ha he uling egime is e en mo e dependen on
i s ene gy sec o and on na u al gas in pa icula o i s ene gy secu i y.87
This subchap e on he ene gy esou ces o he Russian Fede a ion
shows ha i s ene gy sec o has been conside ed one o he key sec o s
o i s economy e e since he la e nine een h cen u y. The So ie , and
now he Russian s a e pe cei es he ene gy sec o as one o he cen al
elemen s suppo ing i s powe . The same goes o he Pu in egime,
which subsidizes ene gy in o de o ensu e poli ical suppo . The Rus-
sian s a e is he e o e i ally in e es ed in con olling i s ene gy sec o .
I conside s ene gy a s a egic asse ha main ains popula suppo o
he uling egime.88
83 Fo mo e on he ole o ene gy esou ces in s a e policies see: Philip And ews-Speed, In e -
na ional Compe i ion o Resou ces: The ole o law, he s a e and ma ke s (Dundee: Dundee Uni e -
si y P ess, 2008).
84 “BP Ene gy Ou look – Russia,” BP, www.bp.com/con en /dam/bp/pd /ene gy-economics.
85 “Coun y Repo on Russia,” Ene gy In o ma ion Agency, www.eia.go /be a/in e na ional
/analysis.c m?iso=RUS.
86 Russia 2014 (Washing on: Ene gy In o ma ion Agency, 2014).
87 Fo mo e on o eign policy o Russia see: Dmi i T enin, “D i e s o Russia’s o eign policy,”
in: Kaad i Liik, Russia’s Pi o o Eu asia (London: Eu opean Council on Fo eign Rela ions,
2014), 34–40.
88 Fo mo e on ene gy secu i y o Russia and Asian coun ies see: Hed ika Koďousko á, Pe a
Kuchyňko á and Anna Leschenko, Ene ge ická bezpečnos asijských zemí a Ruské ede ace (B no:
Masa yko a Uni e zi a, 2012).
48
Bo is Be ezo sky.118 Russia egained i s majo i y sha e in Gazp om and
na ionalized app oxima ely hal o he oil sec o be ween 2003 and 2007.
This mo e cemen ed Pu in’s egime and assu ed i a inancial base.
The change in Russia’s a i ude owa ds i s ene gy policy a e he
accession o Vladimi Pu in was e iden al eady in he concep s o i s
o eign policy119 and na ional secu i y policy120 published in he yea
2000. Bo h o hese documen s s essed he pi o al impo ance o ene -
gy in Russia’s o eign policy and na ional secu i y. The Russian ene gy
s a egy published in 2003 emphasized i s impo ance e en mo e.121 The
2003 ene gy s a egy documen s a s ou wi h a clea s a emen : “Russia
possesses huge deposi s o ene gy esou ces and a powe ul uel ene gy
complex, which is he basis o he de elopmen o i s economy and an
ins umen o o eign and domes ic policy.”122
The s a egy documen ou lined bo h wes e n and eas e n di ec ions
o Russia’s ene gy policy. Howe e , i was clea ha Eu ope would e-
main Russia’s p ima y ene gy cus ome o a leas he nex wen y yea s.
The bluep in o Russia’s o eign policy123 was upda ed in 2008 and i s
ene gy s a egy in 2009.124 The 2009 ene gy s a egy ou lined Russia’s
plans o i s ene gy policy up o 2030. I had o deal wi h a changed
si ua ion compa ed o 2003 because o he global inancial c isis a ha
ime. Ano he game change we e he dispu es o e supplies o na u al
gas be ween Russia and a ious coun ies om 2003 o 2009. The newly
s a ed objec i e was o di e si y he expo ma ke s o Russia’s ene gy
esou ces and o main ain s able ma ke condi ions. In o he wo ds, o
gua an ee demand and easonable p ices – ha is, ene gy secu i y.125 Ta-
ble 12 illus a es he de elopmen o Russia’s mac oeconomic si ua ion
since he economic c isis o 2009.
118 Nick Pa on Walsh, “Ab amo ich Sells His Las Big S ake in Russia o K emlin,” The Gua dian,
Sep embe 29, 2005, www. hegua dian.com/business/2005/sep/29/oilandpe ol. ussia.
119 “Kon sep siya neshnei poli iki Rossiiskoi Fede a sii,” Russian Fede a ion, July 11, 2000,
www.ng. u/wo ld/2000-07-11/1_concep .h ml.
120 “Kon sep siya na sionalnoi bezopasnos i Rossiiskoi Fede a sii,” Russian Fede a ion, Janu-
a y 14, 2000, n o.ng. u/concep s/2000-01-14/6_concep .h ml.
121 “Ene ge icheskaya s a egiya Rossii na pe iod do 2020 goda,” Ins i u e o Ene gy S a egy,
May 1, 2003, www.ene gys a egy. u/p ojec s/es-2020.h m.
122 Ibid.
123 Ibid.
124 “Kon sep siya neshnei poli iki Rossiiskoi Fede a sii,” O ice o he P esiden o he Russian
Fede a ion, July 15, 2008, k emlin. u/ac s/news/785.
125 “Ene ge icheskaya s a egiya Rossii na pe iod do 2030 goda,” Minis y o Ene gy o Russia,
No embe 13, 2009, minene go.go . u/node/1026.

49
The ene gy s a egy was once again amended in 2014, wi h a p olonged
ime ame up o 2035.126 Tha upda e e en mo e openly emphasized he
impo ance o ene gy policy as a ool o p omo ing Russia’s o eign pol-
icy in e es s: “As a esponsible s a e, Russia conside s i s ex e nal ene gy
policy no om he na ow poin o iew o an expo e , in en upon
maximizing sho - e m e enues, bu as a ool o sol e bo h na ional and
global p oblems.”127
Table 12: Basic socio-economic indica o s – Russian Fede a ion (2007–2020)
Yea GDP
( illion USD)
GDP pe capi a
(cu en USD)
Inhabi an s
( housands)
2007 1.300 9,101 142,805
2008 1.661 11,635 142,742
2009 1.223 8,563 142,785
2010 1.525 10,675 142,849
2011 2.032 14,212 142,961
2012 2.170 15,154 143,202
2013 2.231 15,544 143,507
2014 2.064 14,126 143,820
2015 1.366 9,329 144,097
2016 1.283 8,748 144,342
2017 1.579 10,751 144,497
2018 1.658 11,289 144,478
2019 1.700 11,584 144,406
2020 1.487 10,690 144,100
Sou ce: The Wo ld Bank
The ins ances when Russia has u ilized i s ene gy esou ces as an
“ene gy weapon” show ha i s announced s a egy is no a me e he o-
ic bu also ac ual poli ical p ac ice. The e a e se e al examples o such
beha io : he hal ing o oil ansi h ough La ia in 2003; he educ ion
o na u al gas supplies o Bela us du ing he win e s o 2004 and 2006;
T ansne ’s blockade o ansi o Kazakhs an’s oil o Li huania ia Russia
in 2006; he cu o o oil supplies o he whole Li huania by T ansne
126 “Ene ge icheskaya s a egiya Rossii na pe iod do 2035 goda,” Minis y o Ene gy o Russia,
Oc obe 4, 2015, minene go.go . u/node/1913.
127 Ibid.
50
in 2006; he cu o o gas supplies o Geo gia in 2006; “gas wa s” wi h
Uk aine in 2006 and 2009; and he educ ion o oil expo s o he Czech
Republic in 2008.128
The na ional secu i y s a egy o Russia published in 2009 iden i ied
he compe i ion o ene gy esou ces as one o he p incipal causes o
con empo a y in e na ional con lic s.129 Russia’s ene gy esou ces a e
pe cei ed by he coun y’s go e nmen as a ool o s eng hening i s
in e na ional s a u e, bu also as a possible sou ce o con lic . Russia con-
side s i s ene gy sec o o be a pla o m o s eng hening i s g ea -powe
s a us in he A c ic and in Cen al Asia. I is s i ing o lessen i s depen-
dence on he Eu opean Union as a cus ome and is making plans o
di e one hi d o i s ene gy expo s o China.130
Russia adop ed ye ano he new bluep in o i s o eign policy in
Feb ua y 2013.131 Acco ding o his documen , ene gy policy should aim
a p ese ing Russia’s s a us as a c ucial playe in he ade and econom-
ic ela ions be ween Eu ope and he Asia-Paci ic egion. I no ed ha
na u al gas consump ion be ween 2003 and 2013 emained he same in
Eu ope, while i doubled in he Asia-Paci ic egion.132 The o eign policy
concep s essed he shi o global powe o he Eas . Mo eo e , i admi s
a need o in eg a ion o Russia and i s Eas e n Sibe ian egions in o he
Fa Eas , and o Russia in o he g ea e Asia-Paci ic egion.
The Russian poli ical eli es pe cei e s a e-con olled ene gy en e -
p ises such as Gazp om, Rosne , and he independen successo s o he
o me elec ical u ili y, Uni ied Ene gy Sys ems (RAO UES), as ools
o Russia’s o eign policy. In 2008, he wen y- i e mos senio go e n-
men o icials we e also boa d membe s o leading ene gy companies.133
Vladimi Pu in iden i ied s a e con ol o e Russia’s ene gy esou ces as
he key o na ional powe in wha is alleged o be his Ph.D-le el disse -
a ion.134 Al hough i is doub ul ha he is he eal au ho o his ex ,
128 Fo mo e on weaponiza ion o ene gy by Russia see: Mykhailo Goncha , Ene gy Componen
in New Gene a ion Wa a e: Case o Russia’s Hyb id Agg ession agains Uk aine (Kyi : Cen e o
Global S udies S a egy XXI, 2015).
129 “S a egiya nacionalnoy bezopasnos i Rossiiskoi Fede a sii,” Minis y o Fo eign A ai s o he
Russian Fede a ion, Decembe 31, 2015, a chi e.mid. u//bdomp/ns-osndoc.ns .
130 Fo mo e on Russia’s ene gy policy see: O ban, Powe , Ene gy.
131 “Kon sep siya neshnei poli iki Rossiiskoi Fede a sii,” Minis y o Fo eign A ai s o he Rus-
sian Fede a ion, Feb ua y 12, 2013, a chi e.mid. u//bdomp/ns-osndoc.ns .
132 Ibid.
133 Fo mo e on Pu in’s use o he ene gy weapons see: Be il Nyg en, “Pu in’s Use o Na u al Gas
o Rein eg a e he CIS Region,” P oblems o Pos -Communism 55, no. 4 (2008): 3–15.
134 Vladimi Pu in, “S a egicheskoe plani o anie osp oiz ods a mine alno-sy e oi bazy egio-
na uslo iyakh o mi o aniya ynochnykh o noshenii” (PhD. Diss., Sank Pe e bu g, 1997),
51
his choice o opic and how i is add essed is none heless impo an .
His disse a ion con i ms ha his wo ld iew sp ings om he ealis
pa adigm. He p io i izes na ional secu i y and powe o e in e na ional
coope a ion and he building o in e na ional ins i u ions.
The e is ample e idence ha Pu in’s egime has u ilized di e en ial
ene gy p icing o ob ain in luence o legi imacy on many occasions,
wi hou ega d o ma ke logic o p o i abili y. Domes ic ene gy p ices
a e much lowe han wo ld p ices because he poli ical eli es need o
appease he Russian popula ion. The K emlin has equen ly u ilized
discoun p ices o ene gy esou ces as a “ca o ” in Russia’s ela ions
wi h i s pos -So ie neighbo s.135 I possesses wo kinds o he so-called
ene gy weapons: he ap weapon and he ansi weapon. Using he ap
weapon, Russia coe ces i s a ge ed cus ome o beha e in a ce ain way
by h ea ening ha i i esis s, Russia will cu o ene gy supplies. The
ansi weapon means ha Russia will buy na u al gas ( o example)
om i s supplie only o he p ice Russia chooses o pay and hen ship
i onwa d; o he wise he supplie mus pay a ansi ee, again se by
Russia. Russia delibe a ely a oids aking on obliga ions like enouncing
p ice disc imina ion o allowing hi d-pa y access, which a e conside ed
basic ai - ade p ac ices in he Wes .136
Russia’s wes e n ene gy ma ke s
Ano he o Russia’s p incipal aims ega ding i s ene gy policy is o p e-
en he cons uc ion o a wes e n-sponso ed ene gy ansi co ido o
i s sou h. As o now, i is mos ly wo ied abou he Sou he n Gas Co -
ido p oposed by he Eu opean Union. This gas pipeline p ojec was
o iginally in ended o ha e h ee elemen s: he Tu key–G eece–I aly
In e connec o wi h a capaci y o 10 bcm pe annum, he T ans-Ad ia ic
Gas Pipeline wi h a capaci y o 10 bcm, and he Nabucco Gas Pipeline
wi h a capaci y o 31 bcm pe annum. In 2012, howe e , he planned
backbone o he p ojec , he Nabucco Gas Pipeline, had o be sc apped
due o a lack o gua an eed gas supplies om non-Russian sou ces and
he g owing inancial cos s.137 Mo eo e , a his ime Russia began o
www.disse ca .com/con en /s a egicheskoe-plani o anie- osp oiz ods a-mine alno-sy e oi
-bazy- egiona- -uslo iyakh- o .
135 Nyg en, “Pu in’s Use o Na u al Gas,” 3–15.
136 Ibid.
137 Ian Taylo , “Eu ope’s Plan o Al e na i e Pipeline Faces Big P oblems,” The Gua dian,
Janua y 7, 2009, www. hegua dian.com/wo ld/2009/jan/07/nabucco-pipeline-p oblems.
52
build he Sou h S eam Gas Pipeline (la e also discon inued), which
was pe cei ed as a i al p ojec .138
The Shah Deniz Conso ium, which exploi s he cen al deposi s in
Aze baijan, enewed he hopes o a Sou he n Gas Co ido in 2013.139 I
p oposed h ee new elemen s o he p ojec , consis ing o an expansion
o he exis ing Sou h Caucasus Gas Pipeline, and he comple ion o a
T ans-Ana olian Gas Pipeline and he T ans-Ad ia ic Gas Pipeline. I
comple ed, he Sou he n Gas Co ido will be 3,500 km long and cos
USD 45 billion.140 The p ima y sou ce o his pipeline sys em would
be he gas om he Shah Deniz ield. The p oposed gas olumes o be
anspo ed we e planned o be 16 bcm in 2019 and 31 bcm pe yea in
2026. The p ojec would co e app oxima ely 20 pe cen o Eu ope’s
annual demand o na u al gas.141 The p incipal d i ing o ce behind
he enewed Sou he n Co ido p ojec is Aze baijan’s na ional ene gy
conce n, SOCAR, oge he wi h i s Tu kish coun e pa Bo as. Toge he ,
hey con ol c i ical s akes in bo h pipeline p ojec s, along wi h BP, which
is he lead ope a o o he Shah Deniz gas ield.142
Aze baijan’s and Tu key’s o icials belie e hey can secu e addi ional
supplies o he Sou he n Co ido om I aq, I an, and Tu kmenis an.
In 2014, SOCAR announced ha i would be willing o assis Tu kmen-
is an wi h he de elopmen o i s gas and oil in as uc u e.143 Mo eo e ,
in he same yea Tu key and Tu kmenis an signed a amewo k supply
ag eemen ocused on he deli e y o Tu kmenis an’s na u al gas o
Eu ope h ough Tu kish e i o y.144 Two possible ou es a e being dis-
cussed. The pa ies could use he p oposed T ans-Caspian Gas Pipeline,
o hey could ship Tu kmen na u al gas o Tu key h ough I an. Russia’s
plans o he Sou h S eam Gas Pipeline ac oss he Black Sea o Bulga ia
and hen no h in o Cen al Eu ope ( he eby bypassing Uk aine) aced
nume ous obs acles due o i s annexa ion o C imea. Sou h S eam was
138 “Gazop o od Yuzhnyi po ok bude eden s oi dekab e 2015-go goda,” ITAR-TASS,
Ap il 24, 2010, echo.msk. u/news/674485-echo.h ml.
139 “Aze baijani P esiden App o es he Ag eemen on TANAP Gas Pipeline,” T end News Agency,
Janua y 18, 2013, en. end.az/business/ene gy/2109759.h ml.
140 Ibid.
141 Julia Kuszni , “The Sou he n Gas Co ido : Ini ia ed by he EU, Comple ed by O he s?
TANAP, TAP and he Redi ec ion o he Sou h S eam Pipeline,” Caucasus Analy ical Diges ,
no. 69 (2015): 6–11.
142 “T ans-Ana olian Gas Pipeline P ojec ,” TANAP, www. anap.com/ anap-p ojec /why- anap.
143 “Ashgaba Decla a ion,” Eu opean Commission, May 1, 2015, ec.eu opa.eu/commission
/2014-2019/se co ic/announcemen s/ashgaba -decla a ion_en.
144 “Tu kmen Gas o Eu ope,” Nebi -Gaz, July 29, 2016.
53
canceled in Decembe 2014, and la e p oposals o e i e i would edi-
ec i om Bulga ian e i o y h ough Tu key.145 This change o s ance
means ha some o Russia’s na u al gas is now being deli e ed o he
EU ia he Tu ks eam, T ans-Ana olian and T ans-Ad ia ic na u al gas
pipelines.
Russia’s eas e n ene gy ma ke s
Russia is a p esen mos ly ocused on di e si ying i s ene gy expo s o
he Fa Eas , ha ing los i s monopsony o e supplies om he Cen al
Asian egional ene gy secu i y complex. I s coole ela ions wi h Eu ope-
an cus ome s due o he Uk aine c isis also con ibu ed o his p ocess.
On he one hand, he EU’s ban on supplying oil and gas equipmen o
Russian en i ies and bank lending wi h a ma u i y exceeding 90 days
s ongly a ec ed Russia’s ene gy indus y. As a esul , Wes e n in es -
men has d ained away since mid-2014. On he o he hand, China’s oil
company, Sinopec, bough a 10 pe cen s ake in he Russian SIBUR
pe ochemicals en e p ise in Decembe 2015. China’s Silk Road Fund
acqui ed a 9.9 pe cen s ake in he Yamal LNG p ojec om No a ek in
la e 2015.146
The Chinese Bank o De elopmen p o ided loans o USD 10 bil-
lion o T ansne and USD 15 billion o Rosne in 2009.147 In o de o
each Asian cus ome s, Moscow has p io i ized la ge-scale in e na ional
p ojec s aimed a he de elopmen o i s Eas Sibe ian and Fa Eas e n
oil and gas deposi s. The Eas e n Sibe ia–Paci ic Ocean Oil Pipeline and
he Russo-Chinese po ion o he oil pipeline ( om he Sko o odino e-
ine y o China’s Heilongjiang p o ince) a e among such p ojec s aimed
a ge ing Sibe ian oil o Fa Eas e n ma ke s.148 The si ua ion ega ding
na u al gas expo s o he Fa Eas is mo e complica ed.
Russia s a ed planning expo s o na u al gas o China in he ea -
ly 1990s. These plans we e s alled because o he s uggles be ween
TNK-BP and Gazp om o e he con ol o he Eas Sibe ian gas deposi s,
145 “Mosk a i Anka a zaklyuchili soglashenie po Tu e skomu po oku,” Len a. u, Oc obe 10, 2016,
len a. u/news/2016/10/10/po ok.
146 “Moscow’s Need o China Will No Be Recip ocal,” Ox o d Analy ical Daily B ie Se ice,
June 24, 2016.
147 Jean-Ma ie Hol zinge , “The Russo-Chinese S a egic Pa ne ship: Oil and Gas Dimensions,”
Connec ions 9, no. 4 (2010): 69–82.
148 Se gei Luyzanin, Rossiya i Ki ai: no yi kon eks o nosheniz (Moscow: MGIMO, 2015), 16–45.

54
especially he Ko yk a gas ield in he I ku sk egion.149 This dispu e was
esol ed only in 2011. Russian egula o s accused TNK-BP’s p ojec in
he Ko yk a ield o ha ming he en i onmen . The accusa ions o ced
he company o b ing Gazp om in o he p ojec in 2006. Fi e yea s la e ,
TNK-BP decided o sell i s s ake in he ield o Gazp om.150 In 2008 Gaz-
p om acqui ed he Chayanda gas ield in an auc ion conduc ed wi hou
compe i ion a e ha ield was added o Russia’s lis o na ional s a e-
gic asse s in 2007.151 As a esul , Gazp om now con ols mos o Russia’s
impo an na u al gas asse s in Eas e n Sibe ia and he Fa Eas : he
Ko yk a and Chayanda gas ields, he ields in K asnoya sk K ai and on
he wes e n coas o Kamcha ka, and he Sakhalin II and Sakhalin III
p ojec s.152
Meanwhile, when he eas e n ou e was s alema ed, he e appea ed
plans o he cons uc ion o a wes e n ou e o China. The wes e n
ou e would include he Al ai Gas Pipeline, which would s e ch om
he eas e n Sibe ian gas deposi s a U engoy and Nadym o he wes e n
Chinese p o ince o Xinjiang.153 Gazp om had long opposed he eas e n
al e na i e o gas expo s o China un il i acqui ed i al deposi s in he
eas e n pa s o Sibe ia. The e o e, i p e e ed he Al ai pipeline, which
would ap supplies om he deposi s i con olled in wes e n Sibe ia.
Had he pipeline been buil , i would p obably ha e lessened he a ac-
i eness o building he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline. Fo una ely,
o Tu kmenis an, he plans o he cons uc ion o he Al ai pipeline
ha e been shel ed.154
Be o e he commissioning o he i s line o he Tu kmenis an–China
Gas Pipeline in 2009, nego ia ions o e p icing be ween Russia and Chi-
na ailed.155 A ha ime, China’s nego ia o s insis ed on using Eu opean
149 A yom Lukin, “Russia’s Eas wa d D i e: Pi o ing o Asia o o China?” Russian Analy ical
Diges 169 (2015): 2–5.
150 Richa d Fle che , “Gazp om’s Ko yk a Gas Field Vic o y Is a Lesson o BP Sha eholde s,”
Teleg aph, Ma ch 2, 2011, www. eleg aph.co.uk/ inance/commen / icha d le che /8355832
/Gazp oms-Ko yk a-gas- ield- ic o y-is-a-lesson- o -BP-sha eholde s.h ml.
151 “Russia Gazp om Secu es Chayanda Gas Field,” Reu e s, Ap il 14, 2010, www. eu e s.com
/a icle/gazp om-chayanda-idUSL1434364120080414.
152 “Mes o ozhdenia,” OAO Gazp om, www.gazp om. u/abou /p oduc ion/p ojec s/deposi s.
153 “P oek Sila Sibi i mogu o lozhi polzu gazop o oda Al ai,” RIA No os i, Ma ch 18, 2015,
ia. u/economy/20150318/1053274431.h ml.
154 Fo mo e on Russo-Chinese ela ions conce ning Cen al Asian ene gy see: Thomas Ede ,
China-Russia Rela ions in Cen al Asia: Ene gy Policy, Beijing’s New Asse i eness and 21s Cen u y
Geopoli ics (Vienna: Sp inge VS, 2014).
155 Niklas Swans oem, “Sino-Russian Rela ions a he S a o he New Millenium in Cen al
Asia and Beyond,” Jou nal o Con empo a y China 23, no. 87 (2014): 1–12.
55
gas p ices as he s a ing poin o discussions. Gazp om was ocused on
ecei ing he same ma gin o p o i as i did on i s gas sales o Eu ope.156
Howe e , Shanghai is mo e han 3,000 kilome e s u he om he ex-
ac ion poin in Wes Sibe ia han he Eu opean Union bo de . Hence, i
Gazp om had i s way, i would ha e mean a di e ence o app oxima ely
USD 50 pe million cubic me e s (mcm) compa ed o he p ice o gas
in Eu ope due o anspo a ion cos s.157 The si ua ion s a ed o change
a ound 2012 when Gazp om acqui ed new na u al gas deposi s and he
shale gas e olu ion in he Uni ed S a es loomed as a h ea .158 In Sep-
embe 2013, he nego ia ions be ween Gazp om and he China Na ional
Pe oleum Co po a ion (CNPC) we e s ill no concluded, because o
conce ns ega ding he p ice o gas.
Howe e , hings changed a e Russia’s annexa ion o C imea and
he imposi ion o wes e n economic sanc ions. In May 2014, Russia
and China ag eed upon a p icing deal o supplying 38 bcm a yea o
30 yea s.159 Also in May 2014, Xi Jinping and Pu in signed a pu chase
and sale con ac o gas supply ia he eas e n ou e – now known as
he Powe o Sibe ia Gas Pipeline.160 When comple e, his pipeline will
be 4,000 kilome e s long and will s e ch om Yaku ia’s Chaganda gas
ield o Khaba o sk and he LNG e minal in Vladi os ok. I s capaci y
o 61 bcm pe yea will be di ided in o h ee pa s – 38 bcm o China’s
consump ion, 9 bcm o Russia’s domes ic consump ion, and 14 bcm o
expo as LNG o Japan and o he Asian s a es.161 The cons uc ion o
he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline and Russia’s in asion o C imea
ob iously signi ican ly weakened Russia’s nego ia ing posi ion is-à- is
China in he case o he Powe o Sibe ia pipeline.162 Those e en s na -
owed Russia’s maneu e ing oom and ul ima ely compelled i o accep
he deal wi h China.163
156 Linda Jakobson, Paul Hol om, Dean Knox and Jingchao Peng, “China’s Ene gy and Secu i y
Rela ions wi h Russia,” SIPRI Policy Pape , no. 29 (2011): 1–56.
157 James Hende son, The P icing Deba e o e Russian Gas Expo s o China (Ox o d: Ox o d Ins i u e
o Ene gy S udies, 2011), 37–45.
158 Edwa d L. Mo se, “Welcome o he Re olu ion: Why Shale is he Nex Shale,” Fo eign A ai s
93, no. 3, May 2014, www. o eigna ai s.com/a icles/2014-04-17/welcome- e olu ion.
159 “Sila Sibi i,” OAO Gazp om, www.gazp om. u/abou /p oduc ion/p ojec s/pipelines/buil
/yk .
160 Fo mo e on na u al gas geopoli ics see: Amy Ja e and Da id Vic o , Na u al Gas and Geopoli ics:
om 1970 o 2040 (New Yo k: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 2006), 211–241.
161 Ibid.
162 S ephen Blank, “Does Russo-Chinese Pa ne ship Th ea en Ame ica’s In e es s in Asia?” O bis
60, no. 1 (2016): 112–127.
163 Felix K. Chang, “F iends in Need: Geopoli ics o China-Russia Ene gy Rela ions,” Fo eign
56
This subchap e ocuses on Russia’s ene gy policy. Based on Russian
s a egy documen s and ac ual p ac ice, i demons a es ha Pu in’s e-
gime concei es o Russia’s oil and gas ese es as a ool o bo h in e nal
and ex e nal policy. The impo ance o ene gy in Russia’s o eign policy
is only inc easing as a means o ewa ding o punishing he beha io
o o he s a es. The Russian go e nmen shows a clea p e e ence o
bila e al ela ionships in he ene gy sec o because i inds hem easie o
domina e han mul ila e al a angemen s. I has also made clea a emp s
o con ol en i e supply chains and ma ke s ega dless o comme cial
logic in i s ela ions wi h Eu opean ma ke s in he wes and Asia-Paci ic
ma ke s in he eas .
Ene gy Policy in he Cen al Asian Ene gy
Secu i y Complex
Vladimi Pu in e u ned o he p esidency o Russia in 2012, less han
a yea be o e his Chinese coun e pa Xi Jinping ook o ice as China’s
P esiden in 2013. The wo leade s’ o eign policies and ene gy s a e-
gies, and e en hei concep s o he Eu asian balance o powe collide in
he Ene gy Secu i y Complex (ESC) o Cen al Asia. Pu in in oduced
he idea o he Eu asian Economic Union soon a e his elec ion, which in
his wo ds can ake he place o he Shanghai Coope a ion O ganiza ion
(SCO) in he Cen al Asian egion.164 He also s essed Russia’s suppo
o mul ipola i y in global a ai s, no a bipola i y ha would p obably
a o China and he Uni ed S a es. Xi Jinping eplied o hese challenges
by p oposing he Bel and Road Ini ia i e in Sep embe 2013.165
A he ime Russia annexed C imea and he Wes imposed sanc ions,
China’s economy and poli ical powe we e gaining momen um and
Russia began o lose in luence in Cen al Asia o China. Since ha ime,
i seems ha Russia has been mo e willing o espec China’s p io i ies
and in e es s in Cen al Asia. This change o a i ude may be only a
Policy Resea ch Ins i u e, May 22, 2014, h ps://www. p i.o g/a icle/2014/05/ iends-in-need
-geopoli ics-o -china- ussia-ene gy- ela ions/.
164 Gilbe Rozman, “The In e sec ion o Russia’s Tu n o he Eas and China’s Ma ch o he
Wes ,” Russian Analy ical Diges no. 169 (2015): 6–8.
165 “One Bel , One Road,” Caixin Online, Oc obe 12, 2014, english.caixin.com/2014-12-10
/100761304.h ml.
57
empo a y de elopmen i he Eu asian Economic Union becomes mo e
success ul.166
Russia’s policy owa ds Cen al Asia was splin e ed among se e al ini-
ia i es a e 1991. The mos impo an o hem we e he Commonweal h
o Independen S a es, he Collec i e Secu i y T ea y O ganiza ion, and
he Shanghai Coope a ion O ganiza ion.167 This changed in Oc obe
2011 when Vladimi Pu in announced his ision o building he Eu asian
Economic Union in he Russian newspape Iz es iya. In he Iz es iya
a icle, Pu in emphasized he impo ance o Cen al Asia o Russia and
i s sha ed iden i y wi h he egion, connec ed nei he wi h he Wes no
wi h he Eas .168
Uk aine was he key o he c ea ion and easibili y o he Eu asian
Economic Union.169 Wi hou Uk aine, i is qui e likely ha he o ga-
niza ion’s ulc um would lie mo e o he Eas han was planned in he
beginning.170 Acco ding o Pu in, he Eu asian Economic Union would
be a b idge be ween wo majo zones o he wo ld. In his concep ion, o
he i s ime in h ee hund ed yea s, he Wes would cease o be he only
pole o a ac ion o sou ce o alues o Russia. In ac , Eu ope has be-
come jus one among se e al poles o Russia’s o eign policy.171 To Pu in,
he challenges posed by China and he Asia-Paci ic egion do no mean
ha Russia has o in eg a e i sel mo e deeply wi h i s neighbo s, bu ha
i has o in eg a e i s egions mo e ho oughly wi h i sel , especially hose
beyond he U als. O he wise, ension and e en sepa a ism could a ise.172
The ela ionship be ween Cen al Asia and Russia is p o oundly
in luenced by Eas e nize s,173 Eu asianis s, and neo-Eu asianis s, who
pe cei e Cen al Asia and Russia as pa s o a single poli ico-cul u al
uni – Eu asia. Eu asianism as a poli ical ideology was c ea ed in he
1920s in Cen al and Wes e n Eu ope by p ominen Russian émig és such
166 “Tu kmeniya schi ae Rossiyu pa ne om, no ees s upa ne bude ,” RIA No os i, July 14,
2014.
167 Z. A. Dadabaye a, P o sessy egionaliza sii Tsen al’noi Azii: p oblemy i p o i o echiya (Moscow:
Ins i u ekonomiki RAN, 2014), 51–64.
168 Vladimi Pu in, “No yi in eg na sionnyi p oek dlya E azii – budushchee, ko o oe ozhdae -
sya se odnyia,” Iz es iia, Oc obe 3, 2011.
169 Ibid.
170 Fyodo Lukyano , “Building Eu asia and De ining Russia,” in: Kaad i Liik, Russia’s Pi o o
Eu asia (London: ECFR, 2014): 18–24.
171 Timo ei Bo dache , “Eu asian Russia in he Twen y-Fi s Cen u y,” in: Kaad i Liik, Russia’s
Pi o o Eu asia (London: ECFR, 2014), 25–31.
172 Ibid.
173 “Eas e nize s” we e p edecesso s o he ollowe s o Eu asianism. They ocused mo e on China
and India han Cen al Asia. Thei main p o agonis was Kons an in Leon ie .
64
owne ship o i s gas ese es, p oduc ion acili ies, and anspo a ion
in as uc u e wi hin Russia. All o his indica es g ea e conce n o
s a egic issues han o economic logic. I con i ms ha Russia’s ene gy
policy in he Cen al Asian ESC is s a egic-o ien ed.
Analysis o Indica o s
This chap e is a case s udy o Russia’s ene gy policy wi h ega d o he
Cen al Asian ESC. The goal o his pa icula case s udy is o sea ch
o indica o s o a s a egic-o ien ed ene gy policy – o elemen s o
he model o his kind o policy. A s a egic-o ien ed ene gy policy has
eigh elemen s: he pe cep ion ha ene gy esou ces a e s a egically
impo an ; he pe cep ion ha he s a e’s ene gy sec o is c ucial o i s
economy; he pe cep ion ha s a e-owned ene gy ac o s a e ex ensions o
he s a e appa a us; a eliance on bila e al ela ions wi h o he coun ies;
he pe cep ion ha he ene gy sec o is a ool o achie ing he aims o
s a e policy; a ze o-sum app oach o in e na ional ela ions; he pe cep-
ion ha dependence on o eign en i ies is undesi able; and an emphasis
on s a egic goals o e economic logic. The conclusion o his case s udy
is ha Russia’s ene gy policy in he ESC o Cen al Asia is p edominan ly
s a egic-o ien ed, based on he p esence o he indica o s as lis ed below.
Pe cep ion ha ene gy esou ces a e s a egically impo an
Based on he da a I ga he ed, Russia’s cu en poli ical egime pe cei es
ene gy esou ces as s a egically impo an . The e we e many occa-
sions unde Pu in when he desi e o ake con ol o ene gy esou ces
o hei dis ibu ion ne wo ks mani es ed i sel . This has been e iden
in Russia since he Yukos a ai in 2003, when Mikhail Khodo ko sky
ied o sell pa s o Yukos o US in es o s Che on and ExxonMobil.
Khodo ko sky ailed and was a es ed. His company was aken o e by
s a e-owned Gazp om. In he mind o he Russian leade ship, Yukos had
o emain unde he con ol o he Russian s a e because o i s s a egic
impo ance.

65
Pe cep ion ha he ene gy sec o is c ucial o he s a e’s
economy
Today, Russia conside s i s ene gy sec o o be he s a egically impo -
an co e o i s economy and ade capaci ies. The analysis abo e shows
ha Russia has inc easingly ied o gain and main ain con ol o e i s
ene gy sec o , especially since Vladimi Pu in ose o powe . O cou se,
he ene gy sec o has been a c ucial pa o Russia’s economy since he
end o he nine een h cen u y. I s in e nal impo ance lies no only in i s
suppo o he coun y’s economic g ow h bu also in he abili y o he
Pu in egime o win popula suppo by using subsidies o keep ene gy
p ices low.
Pe cep ion ha s a e-owned ene gy companies a e ex ensions
o he s a e appa a us
I was shown ha Pu in’s egime bo h di ec ly and indi ec ly domina es
he en i e ene gy sec o o he Russian Fede a ion. The egime has been
able o inc ease i s powe by ansla ing he na ional powe o he ene gy
sec o in o s a e powe . I is clea ha Russia pe cei es i sel as an ene gy
supe powe . Based on he indings o he case s udy, i is also clea ha
Russia’s poli ical eli e conside he coun y’s s a e-owned ene gy compa-
nies o be ools o in e nal and ex e nal policy used by he s a e. The ole
o he ene gy sec o as a ool o Russian o eign policy is ci ed in Pu in’s
o eign and secu i y s a egies.
Reliance on bila e al ela ions
Russia’s eliance on bila e al ela ions in ene gy policy is especially isi-
ble in i s s ic ly nega i e eac ions o any mul ila e al ini ia i es such as
he Eu opean Ene gy Cha e . Based on he accumula ed da a, Russia
has a p e e ence in i s ene gy policy o long- e m bila e al deals wi h o -
eign coun ies. This is because in bila e al ela ions, i is much easie o
Russia o play he ole o an ene gy supe powe . The case s udy demon-
s a ed his wi h se e al examples o cases whe e Russia u ilized ei he
he ap o he ansi ene gy weapon in i s ela ions wi h o he s a es.
66
Ze o-sum app oach o policy
The case s udy shows ha Russia has epea edly a emp ed o p ese e
i s ole as he dominan expo e o ene gy o Eu opean ma ke s as well
as i s ole as he dominan impo e o ene gy om Cen al Asia. Russia
has been ela i ely success ul in he Eu opean ma ke , bu in Cen al
Asia i is g adually being pushed ou by China’s asse ion o i s ene gy
in e es s. Because o i s ze o-sum app oach o policy making, Russia’s
poli ical eli e has been willing o le China enc oach on Cen al Asia in
o de o p ese e Russia’s posi ion in he Wes e n ene gy ma ke .
Pe cep ion ha he ene gy sec o is a ool o achie ing
he s a e’s goals
Based on s a egic and comme cial p ac ice, he case s udy demons a es
ha Pu in’s egime conside s Russia’s ene gy sec o o be a ool o i s
in e nal and ex e nal policy, in ha Russia uses i s ene gy supplies and
in as uc u e as a means o ewa ding o punishing he beha io o
o he s a es. The e is also clea e idence ha Russia ies o con ol en i e
supply chains and ma ke s ega dless o comme cial logic, as i has done
wi h bo h i s Eu opean ma ke s in he Wes and i s Asia-Paci ic ma ke s
in he Eas .
Pe cep ion ha dependence on o he coun ies is undesi able
Russia has a emp ed o exploi he monopsony posi ion i inhe i ed om
he So ie Union wi h i s Cen al Asian supplie s, con ac ually locking
in supplies and aking owne ship sha es in p oduce s and p ocessing
acili ies. Thus, i has ied o c ea e a sys em o dependence o he
Cen al Asian s a es, wi h he aim o con olling he en i e Cen al Asian
ene gy ma ke . I has a emp ed o block any al e na i e expo ou es
ou o Cen al Asia o p ese e i s posi ion as a ansi s a e. Russia’s
ene gy policy in he Cen al Asian ESC displays a ze o-sum app oach o
policy and a emp s o elimina e compe i ion om o he supplie s and
ansi s a es. Fu he mo e, Russia has cons uc ed new pipeline in a-
s uc u e o bypass o he ansi s a es like Uk aine in o de o deepen
Eu ope’s dependence on Russia o ene gy supplies. Finally, Russia has
a emp ed o p ese e Gazp om’s monopoly o e Russian and Cen al
67
Asian gas expo s by blocking o eign owne ship o gas ese es, gas
p oduc ion acili ies, and anspo in as uc u e in Russia. He e again,
Russia emphasizes s a egic goals o e economic logic, which con i ms
ha Russia’s ene gy policy in Cen al Asian ESC is s a egic-o ien ed.
Emphasis on s a egic goals o e economic logic
Russia’s o me economic and poli ical clou in he Cen al Asian ESC
has conside ably diminished o e he cou se o he pas 25 yea s. A he
beginning o he 1990s, Russia con olled he egion’s en i e ansi in-
as uc u e, and so i had eno mous le e age o e i s newly independen
neighbo s. In ha espec , i was c ucial o Gazp om o gain con ol
o e he Cen al Asia–Cen e Gas Pipeline Sys em. Howe e , Russia was
simply unable o blackmail all o i s pa ne s in Cen al Asia. The Cen al
Asian egimes no longe conside coope a ion wi h Russia o be he bes
policy op ion because o Russia’s poo economic pe o mance and i s
inc easingly au ho i a ian and impe ialis ic policies.
In gene al, he aim o Russia’s ene gy policy in he Cen al Asian ESC
has been o ensu e i s ene gy secu i y by domina ing he ene gy sec o
o Cen al Asia. S eps aken by Russia’s go e nmen show ha i s ene gy
policy is no ma ke -o ien ed and ocused on he maximiza ion o p o i
bu ins ead i is s a egic-o ien ed and ocused on i s na ional goals. I
has used i s ene gy po en ial as a ool o i s o eign policy, as has been
openly s a ed many imes in Russia’s s a egic o eign and na ional secu-
i y policy documen s. In he end, i mus be s essed ha he K emlin’s
p incipal goal is o a pu ely poli ical na u e – he p ese a ion o Pu in’s
egime and i s p edominan posi ion in Russia’s in e nal and ex e nal
a ai s.
68
3. China’s Ene gy Policy in Cen al Asia
The second o my h ee case s udies is de o ed o China’s ene gy policy
in he con ex o he Cen al Asian ESC. This chap e is di ided in o
ou pa s: ene gy esou ces, ene gy ac o s, ene gy policy in gene al, and
ene gy policy in he ESC o Cen al Asia. The conclusions o he sub-
chap e s a e based on an e alua ion o p ima y and seconda y sou ces.
The goal o his pa icula case s udy is o sea ch o he elemen s o a
s a egic-o ien ed ene gy policy es ablished in he model o he assess-
men o ene gy policy pe aining o he na u al gas sec o . These a e:
he pe cep ion ha ene gy esou ces a e s a egically impo an ; he
pe cep ion ha he ene gy sec o is c ucial o he s a e’s economy;
he pe cep ion ha s a e-owned ene gy ac o s a e ex ensions o he s a e
appa a us; eliance on bila e al ela ions; he pe cep ion ha he ene gy
sec o is a ool o achie ing he goals o he s a e; a ze o-sum app oach
o policy making; he pe cep ion ha dependence on o he coun ies is
undesi able; and an emphasis on s a egic goals o e economic logic.
This case s udy is ano he s epping-s one in he p ocess o answe ing
he esea ch ques ion abou he p edominan app oach o ene gy policy
among he ac o s o he Cen al Asian ESC. The chap e concludes wi h
a ecap o he pa icula indica o s o which e idence was ound in he
cou se o my esea ch.
Ene gy Resou ces
China s a ed i s oil and gas indus y almos om sc a ch no long
a e he Second Wo ld Wa . Howe e , he coun y’s o e all economic
de elopmen and especially he ad ancemen o i s ene gy indus y was
69
hampe ed by a Uni ed S a es emba go ha las ed o e he cou se o he
1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Mo eo e , he So ie suppo o he indus y,
which was e y impo an in he 1950s, waned o e he nex decade be-
cause o he Sino-So ie spli and he esul ing ensions.
The si ua ion began o imp o e somewha in he 1970s. China was
able o u ilize he oil c ises o 1973 and 1979 o boos i s oil expo s. Also,
he change in he leade ship o he Chinese Communis Pa y (CPC)
ep esen ed by Deng Xiaoping’s assump ion o powe in 1978 led o he
opening o China’s economy and pa ial economic libe aliza ion. Since
1949, i has been an eno mous p oblem o China o achie e ene gy
sel -su iciency. A e Deng Xiaoping’s libe aliza ion o he economy,
he goal o sel -su iciency in ene gy was slowly eplaced by he goals o
ensu ing China’s ene gy secu i y and di e si ying i s sou ces o ene gy
supplies.199
Deng Xiaoping’s new economic policy was ollowed by apid in-
dus ializa ion and a sha p ise in ene gy consump ion. China was
sel -su icien in ene gy un il he la e 1970s. I s i s impo s o hyd oca -
bons began in 1983 om Oman, and he domes ic demand o oil had
comple ely ou paced domes ic p oduc ion by 1996. This de elopmen
was mainly due o a s eep ise in he numbe o passenge ca s on he
oads in China.200 In 2013, China consumed 10.5 million ba els o oil
pe day, which made i he second bigges consume o oil in he wo ld
a e he Uni ed S a es. In he same yea , he p oduc ion o China’s oil
indus y co e ed only hal o ha demand.201 The ema kable economic
g ow h ha spu ed he inc eased consump ion o ene gy is shown in
he Table 13.
China possesses 5.4 cm o domes ic na u al gas ese es ha a e
accessible wi h con empo a y echnology and 4 cm mo e in uncon en-
ional esou ces.202 China’s annual domes ic p oduc ion o na u al gas
was 138.4 bcm in 2016 and i s consump ion was a a g ea e 210.3 bcm.203
The e has been a signi ican inc ease in he use o na u al gas in China in
hea y indus y and in he p oduc ion o elec ici y. Ano he eason o
199 E ica S ecke Downs, China’s Ques o Ene gy Secu i y (Washing on: RAND Co po a ion,
2003), 11–42.
200 Ibid.
201 “China C ude Oil Consump ion by Yea ,” Uni ed S a es Ene gy In o ma ion Adminis a ion,
www.eia.go .
202 “China’s Po en ial Oil, Na u al Gas Rese es Rise: O icial Da a,” Xinhua News Agency, June
14, 2016, www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-06/14/con en _25707842.h m.
203 “China’s 2015 Na u al Gas Ou pu G ow h Slowes in a Leas 10 Yea s,” Reu e s, Janua y 19,
2016, www. eu e s.com/a icle/china-economy-ou pu -gas-idUSL3N1532HZ.

70
Table 13: Basic socio-economic indica o s – People’s Republic o China
(2007–2020)
Yea GDP
( illion USD)
GDP pe capi a
(cu en USD)
Inhabi an s
(billions)
2007 3.552 2,695 1.318
2008 4.598 3,471 1.325
2009 5.110 3,838 1.331
2010 6.101 4,561 1.338
2011 7.573 5,634 1.344
2012 8.561 6,338 1.351
2013 9.607 7,078 1.357
2014 10.482 7,684 1.364
2015 11.065 8,069 1.371
2016 11.199 8,123 1.379
2017 12.143 8,759 1.386
2018 13.608 9,771 1.393
2019 14.280 10,216 1.398
2020 14.720 10,500 1.402
Sou ce: The Wo ld Bank
he inc eased consump ion o na u al gas is he go e nmen ’s desi e o
alle ia e ai pollu ion. S ill, as o oday, na u al gas consump ion makes
up only a ound 8 pe cen o all he p ima y sou ces o ene gy consumed
in China. China’s essen ial ene gy sou ce is s ill coal, which made up
66 pe cen o he coun y’s ene gy consump ion in 2014. The second mos
impo an sou ce o ene gy was oil, which accoun ed o 19 pe cen o
he o e all ene gy consump ion. Hyd oelec ic ene gy con ibu ed 6 pe -
cen , na u al gas 3 pe cen , and nuclea ene gy along wi h enewables
1 pe cen each.204 None heless, he mos impo an end is he g adual
inc ease o he sha e o na u al gas in he Chinese ene gy mix, which has
signi ican geoeconomic and geopoli ical implica ions. The ends in he
consump ion o na u al gas in i e o he s a es ha comp ise he Cen al
Asian ESC a e compa ed in Table 14.
204 Xin Li, Na u al Gas in China: Regional Analysis (Ox o d: The Ox o d Ins i u e o Ene gy S udies,
2015), 4–15.
71
Table 14: Consump ion o na u al gas 2007–2019 (bcm)
Yea Russia Tu kmenis an China Kazakhs an Uzbekis an
2007 422.0 21.3 73.0 9.0 45.9
2008 416.0 21.4 84.1 8.9 48.7
2009 389.6 19.7 92.6 8.3 39.9
2010 414.1 22.6 111.2 8.9 40.8
2011 424.6 23.5 137.1 10.0 47.6
2012 416.2 26.3 150.9 10.8 47.2
2013 413.5 22.9 171.9 11.2 49.8
2014 409.7 25.6 188.4 12.5 48.8
2015 402.8 29.4 194.8 12.9 50.2
2016 390.9 29.5 210.3 13.4 51.4
2017 431.1 25.3 240.4 15.9 43.1
2018 454.5 28.4 283.0 19.4 42.6
2019 444.3 31.5 307.3 17.9 43.4
Sou ce: S a is ical Repo o Wo ld Ene gy
China’s o icial i e-yea plans illus a e i s go e nmen ’s changing
ene gy policy.205 The subchap e on ene gy in he six h i e-yea plan,
om 1980 o 1985, emphasized he necessi y o ene gy conse a ion. I
also s essed he need o he a ailable esou ces o keep pace wi h con-
sump ion.206 The nex i e-yea plan om 1985 o 1990, China’s se en h,
ocused on ewa ding en e p ises ha we e able o conse e ene gy. The
se en h plan’s p io i ies we e he cons uc ion and imp o emen o he
in as uc u e o he ene gy indus y.207 The eigh h i e-yea plan, om
1990 o 1995, con inued o ocus on sa ing ene gy. Policies aiming a
educing he le el o ene gy consump ion we e di ec ly connec ed o
policies aiming a con olling popula ion g ow h.208
The nin h i e-yea plan, om 1995 o 2000, began o edesign Chi-
na’s ene gy mix. I called o an inc ease in he use o na u al gas and
205 In e na ional Ene gy Agency, De eloping China’s Na u al Gas Ma ke (Pa is: IEA, 2002), 51–56.
206 “6 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2011-02/23
/con en _14689649.h m.
207 “7 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2011-02/23
/con en _14689653.h m.
208 “8 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2011-02/23
/con en _14689657.h m.
72
he enewables and a dec ease in coal consump ion.209 This in en ion
was impac ed by he Asian economic c isis o 1997, which led o China
becoming a ne impo e o oil. Mo eo e , he nin h plan in oduced
he “Go Wes ” policy, which was ocused on he de elopmen o he
wes e n egions o China and on imp o ing i s ela ions wi h he neigh-
bo ing s a es o i s wes .210 The i e-yea plan assumed he e would be
la ge olumes o gas ansi ing China om wes o eas and supplies o
elec ici y going om China in he opposi e di ec ion.211 The en h i e-
yea plan was published in 2000. I s essed e en mo e he impo ance o
p o ec ing he en i onmen and so asc ibed a g ea e ole o enewables
and na u al gas.212 The ele en h i e-yea plan, 2005–2010, s essed con-
inued libe aliza ion o bo h ade and ene gy ma ke s.213 The wel h
i e-yea plan co e ed he pe iod be ween 2010 and 2015. I ocused on
he de elopmen o China’s wes e n egions. Mo eo e , i emphasized
he impo ance o enewable sou ces o ene gy and o enla ging hei
sha e in he na ional ene gy mix.214 The hi een h i e-yea plan pe iod
con inued o s ess en i onmen al p o ec ion and ocused on he wes e n
pa s o he coun y.215 En i onmen al p o ec ion and ene gy secu i y a e
he wo mos impo an asks o mo e han jus China’s ene gy policy.
They also cons i u e c i ical o e all p io i ies o China’s go e nmen .216
This subchap e on he ene gy esou ces o China shows ha he
coun y has signi ican domes ic ene gy esou ces bu is an ene gy im-
po e because o he s eng h o i s economy. The domes ic ene gy
sec o , howe e , plays a c ucial ole because i s con ibu ion is unda-
men al o he na ional economy. China ega ds i s ene gy ou pu as a
main ins umen o main aining he legi imacy o he CPC. The Chinese
s a e is he e o e in e es ed in con olling i s ene gy sec o and conside s
i a s a egic asse o main aining popula suppo o he uling egime.
209 “9 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2011-02/23
/con en _14689661.h m.
210 And ew Moody, “‘Go Wes Policy Is An Economic Miles one Fo Na ion,” China Daily, Sep-
embe 12, 2011.
211 Hongyi Lai, “Wes e n De elopmen P og am: I s Ra ionale, Implemen a ion, and P ospec s,”
Mode n China 28, no. 4 (2002): 432–466.
212 “10 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2011-02/23
/con en _14689665.h m.
213 “11 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” China Daily, www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2011-02/23
/con en _14689669.h m.
214 “12 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” S a e Council o he People’s Republic o China, h p://english.go .cn/.
215 “13 h Fi e-Yea Plan,” Xinhua News Agency, news.xinhuane .com.
216 Shi Dan, “China’s Ene gy Policy and i s De elopmen ,” in: An onio Ma quina, Ene gy Secu i y:
Visions om Asia and Eu ope (Mad id: Palg a e Macmillan, 2008), 135–46.
73
China’s a emp o enla ge he sha e o na u al gas consumed in i s
ene gy mix should no be seen only om he na ow poin o iew o
en i onmen al p o ec ion bu also as he pe cei ed key o he egime’s
mili a y and economic powe .217
S a e Ac o s in he Ene gy Sec o
The People’s Republic o China was c ea ed in 1949, and o his day i is
uled by he Communis Pa y o China (CPC). The sup eme pa y o gan
is he Na ional Cong ess o he CPC, which has been con ened e e y
i e yea s since 1960. Be ween he sessions o he Na ional Cong ess, he
highes au ho i ies in China a e he Poli bu o, he Poli bu o’s S anding
Commi ee, and he Cen al Mili a y Commission.218 The au ho i y o
he s a e is o icially es ed in he Na ional People’s Cong ess. I plays
he ole o a pa liamen and has he igh o elec he p esiden , p emie
and o he o icials. The p esiden and ice-p esiden wield he execu i e
powe in he s a e. The p esiden appoin s he membe s o he S a e
Council o China, which is China’s cen al go e nmen .219
China’s cu en poli ical sys em is plagued by u wa s a ibu able
o a lack o a o mal sepa a ion o powe s in he s uc u e o he go e n-
men . This poli ical eali y has signi ican impac on he o mula ion o
he coun y’s ene gy policy owa ds he neighbo ing s a es and egions.
The poli ical op b ass does no usually decide upon day- o-day ma -
e s. I ocuses only on s a egy and in gene al wai s o ake ac ion on
ini ia i es o igina ing a lowe le els o go e nmen . I he e is no clea
consensus on a cou se o ac ion below, he poli ical eli e a e p one o pos -
pone making a mo e, a he han o adop an unpopula measu e. This
hesi ancy makes he go e nmen ’s decision-making p ocess e y slow.
In he ene gy sec o , i is he S a e Council, he Poli bu o’s S anding
Commi ee, and he leade ship o he People’s Libe a ion A my who
make mos o he decisions.220 S a e-con olled ene gy en e p ises ha e
217 Fo mo e on China’s pe cep ion o Cen al Asia see: Ma léne La uelle and Sebas iene Pey ouse,
China as a Neighbo : Cen al Asian Pe spec i es and S a egies (Washing on: Cen al Asia-Caucasus
Ins i u e and Silk Road S udies P og am, 2009).
218 “Full Tex o Cons i u ion o he Communis Pa y o China,” 16 h Na ional Cong ess o he
Communis Pa y o China, 2002, www.china.o g.cn/english/ ea u es/49109.h m#4.
219 “Cons i u ion o he People’s Republic o China,” Decembe 4, 1982, en.people.cn/cons i u ion
/cons i u ion.h ml.
220 “Na ional Ene gy Adminis a ion,” Na ional De elopmen and Re o m Commission o he
People’s Republic o China, en.nd c.go .cn/m od/200812/ 20081218_252224.h ml.
80
majo oil company in Russia ha a o ed coope a ion wi h China’s oil
and gas en e p ises. Russia’s pa liamen p e en ed ano he ansac ion,
he sale o Sla ne o China, in 2002. Howe e , while Wes e n and Rus-
sian go e nmen s a e p o ec ing hei companies om China’s akeo e
bids, he si ua ion is comple ely e e sed in Cen al Asia.245 The modus
ope andi o China’s s a egy is o ie i sel o i s pa ne and clien s a es
h ough a dense ne wo k o pipelines and o he in as uc u e, and he
Cen al Asian go e nmen s a e no ying o p e en i om doing so.246
China’s ene gy secu i y s a egy and he Bel and Road Ini ia i e a e
associa ed wi h he e ms “go-wes s a egy” and “s ing o pea ls s a -
egy.”247 The o me e m mainly e e s o China’s inc easingly asse i e
ole in he Cen al Asian ESC. Mo eo e , he go-wes s a egy aims o
inc ease he le el o economic de elopmen in Xinjiang and Tibe and
hence b ing s abili y o hese egions.248
This subchap e ocuses on China’s ene gy policy. Based on s a egic
documen s and comme cial p ac ice, he CPC conside s China’s ene -
gy sec o o be a ool o i s in e nal and ex e nal policy. Fu he mo e,
he ene gy sec o ’s ole in ex e nal policy is g owing as China pu sues
o eign in es men h ough he “go-ou s a egy,” “oil diplomacy,” and
he “s ing o pea ls.”249 All o hese s a egies can be con ex ualized in
he b oade amewo k o China’s Bel and Road Ini ia i e announced by
P esiden Xi Jinping in 2013.250 A he hea o ha ini ia i e is a desi e
o con ol he ma e ial esou ces ha a e he basis o China’s mili a y
and economic powe . 251 China ewa ds o punishes ce ain beha io o
o he s a es. In addi ion, he e is a clea p e e ence o bila e al ela ions
in he ene gy sec o because like Russia, China inds i easie o dom-
ina e bila e al ela ionships. Fu he mo e, he e a e clea examples o
a emp s o con ol en i e supply chains and ma ke s wi hou ega d o
comme cial logic, as was he case wi h akeo e a emp s a ge ing he
245 Simon Osbo ne, “China’s Inc easingly Powe ul Role in Cen al Asia,” FinanceAsia, Oc obe 1,
2012.
246 Geo giy Voloshin, “Hidden D agon: The Chinese E a in Cen al Asia,” Global Asia 9, no. 4
(2014): 86–102.
247 “China Builds Up S a egic Sea Lanes,” Washing on Times, Janua y 17, 2015, www.washing on
imes.com/news/2005/jan/17/20050117-115550-1929 .
248 On he Xinjiang ques ion see: Michael Cla ke, Xinjiang and China’s Rise in Cen al Asia: A His o y
(London: Rou ledge, 2011).
249 The “s ing o pea ls” s a egy ocuses on s eng hening China’s posi ion in ma i ime ade
and especially on secu ing i s oil and LNG impo s.
250 Caixin Online, “One Bel , One Road.”
251 Collins e al., China’s Ene gy S a egy, 81–114.

81
US company Unocal, he Canadian company Nexen, and he Russian
company Sla ne .252
Ene gy Policy in he Cen al Asian Ene gy
Secu i y Complex
Many au ho s, such as Alexande Cooley,253 And ey Kazan se ,254 and
Julia Kuszni 255 ha e wa ned ha Cen al Asia aces a new ound in he
“g ea game” o con ol o i s na u al esou ces. Howe e , mos o hem
pe cei ed he Wes and Russia as he main con ende s.256 They conspic-
uously igno ed China, which is now only a s ep away om aking he
egion in o i s zone o in luence.257 Besides i s own ene gy secu i y and
economic coope a ion wi h o he s a es, China ocuses i s a en ion on
s abilizing i s bo de s, ensu ing i s na ional secu i y, and secu ing a
leade ship ole in he egion o i sel .258
China’s ene gy policy in he Cen al Asian ene gy secu i y complex is
mainly ocused on h ee egional hyd oca bon expo e s: Tu kmenis an,
Kazakhs an, and Uzbekis an.259 Those coun ies’ combined na u al gas
ese es a e es ima ed a 27.8 cm, which is 13.3 pe cen o he wo ld
o al.260 Cen al Asia’s leade s need China’s in es men o sa is y he
g owing demand o hei de eloping economies. A he ime o he
252 Fo mo e on China’s ene gy policy owa ds Russia see: Amy Ja e, China’s Ene gy Hedging
S a egy: Less han Mee s he Eye o Russian Gas Pipelines (Washing on: Na ional Bu eau o Asian
Resea ch, 2015).
253 Alexande Cooley, G ea Games, Local Rule s: The New G ea Powe Con es in Cen al Asia (Ox o d:
Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 2012).
254 And ey Kazan se , Bolshaya ig a s neiz es nymi p a ilami: Mi o aya poli ika i Tsen alnaya Aziya
(Moscow: Fond Naslediye E azii, 2008), 88–94.
255 Ka en Smi h S egen and Julia Kuszni , “Ou comes and S a egies in he New G ea Game:
China and he Caspian S a es Eme ge as Winne s,” Jou nal o Eu asian S udies 6, no. 2 (2015):
91–106.
256 Lu z Kle eman, The New G ea Game: Blood and Oil in Cen al Asia (New Yo k: G oe P ess, 2003),
144–165.
257 Fo mo e on China’s policies in Cen al Asia see: Su e , “Du abili y o China’s S a egy,”
18–24.
258 Fo China’s posi ion on Cen al Asia see: Jan Ší and Sla omí Ho ák, “China as an Eme ging
Supe powe in Cen al Asia: The View om Ashkhabad,” China and Eu asia Fo um Qua e ly 6,
no. 2 (2008): 75–88.
259 S. V. Zhuko , “Ene ge icheskiye in e esy Ki aya S ednei Azii,” Vos ok. A o-azia skie obshches a:
is o iia i so emennos 6 (2007): 1–8.
260 Onu Cobanli, “Cen al Asian Gas in Eu asian Powe Game,” Ene gy Policy 68, issue C (2014):
348–370.
82
inancial c isis o 2008, China concluded wo loans- o -ene gy con ac s
wi h Tu kmenis an amoun ing o USD 8 billion. These loans enabled
Tu kmenis an o ee i sel om ha ing o bo ow om p i a e lende s
and in e na ional inancial ins i u ions.261
In compa ison o Wes e n c edi o s, China did no demand any
social o poli ical p econdi ions o coope a ion wi h i s Cen al Asian
pa ne s.262 I la e concluded simila deals wi h Kazakhs an in e u n o
ene gy esou ces wo h USD 13 billion. China’s inc easing impo ance
in he egion can bes be illus a ed by he ise in mu ual ade. In 2000,
China’s o e all ade wi h Cen al Asia was es ima ed a USD 1 billion.
Howe e , in 2010 his igu e eached USD 30 billion. I was USD 52 bil-
lion in 2013.263 By he end o he 2010s, China had aken ad an age o
he global inancial c isis and su passed Russia as he egion’s leading
ading pa ne .
China’s ac i i ies in Kazakhs an
In Kazakhs an, China i s ocused on gaining a posi ion in ups eam
ac i i ies and hen mo ed in o downs eam ac i i ies. The CNPC now
ope a es i e oil ield de elopmen p ojec s in Kazakhs an: CNPC Ak-
obeMunaiGas, No h Buzachi, Pe oKazakhs an, and he KAM and
ADM p ojec s. In he a ea o anspo , China holds in e es s in he
Kazakhs an–China C ude Oil Pipeline, he No hwes C ude Oil Pipe-
line, and he second phase o he Kazakhs an–China Gas Pipeline. In
1997, he CNPC acqui ed a 60.3 pe cen s ake in Ak obeMunaiGas and
ob ained a p oduc ion license o he Zhanzhol, Kenkijak O e sal , and
Kenkijak Subsal ields.264 I now owns an 85.42 pe cen sha e in Ak-
obeMunaiGas.265 Ak obeMunaiGas is he ou h la ges oil en e p ise
in Kazakhs an.266 In 2005, he CNPC also acqui ed Pe oKazakhs an,
which hen owned igh s o exploi a ion o 16 oil ields and ope a ed
261 Fo ene gy geopoli ics in Cen al Asia see: Pe e sen, Russia, China and he Geopoli ics o Ene gy,
89–108.
262 E geny Pe elin, “China’s Ene gy Monologue in Cen al Asia,” Secu i y Index 17, no. 4 (2011):
29–46.
263 Sebas ien Pey ouse, Tes imony be o e he U.S.-China Economic and Secu i y Re iew Com-
mission, Ma ch 18, 2015.
264 Ibid.
265 “CNPC in Kazakhs an,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Kazakhs an/coun y_index.sh ml.
266 Ibid.
83
Kazakhs an’s la ges e ine y in Shymken .267 Pe oKazakhs an is an in-
eg a ed in e na ional ene gy company wi h ups eam and downs eam
ope a ions in bo h oil and gas. The company’s ups eam asse s a e lo-
ca ed in he Sou h Tu gai Basin and i s downs eam asse s include he
Shymken e ine y. Ve y con enien ly o he CNPC, all he Kazakh oil
ields men ioned lie along he ou e o i s oil pipeline h ough Kazakh-
s an. The CNPC and Lukoil join ly ope a e he No h Buzachi oil ield,
loca ed in a wes e n Kazakhs an. Each has a 50 pe cen s ake in he
p ojec . The KAM P ojec mainly consis s o he Konys and Bek as oil
ields in he Sou h Tu gai Basin.
In 1993, he e we e ea ly plans o an oil pipeline om Kazakhs an
o Xinjiang in China. China and Kazakhs an signed a memo andum o
unde s anding on he cons uc ion o ha pipeline in 1997.268 Howe e ,
he ini ial plan was canceled because o he 1998 Asian inancial c isis.
The p ojec e u ned o li e in 2003 as a consequence o se e al se backs
o China’s ene gy di e si ica ion s a egy. Fi s , he US-led wa in I aq
mean a loss o signi ican Chinese in es men s in ha coun y. Second,
in e nal de elopmen s in Russia connec ed wi h he Yukos a ai spelled
he end o he p ospec s o a Sino-Russian oil pipeline. Thi d, China
was unsuccess ul in i s bid o buy a sha e o he as Kashagan oil ield
in wes e n Kazakhs an.269 Fou h, China expe ienced unp eceden ed
elec ici y blackou s in he summe o 2003.
The Kazakhs an–China Oil Pipeline was buil in h ee s ages. The
pipeline om Ak obe egion o A y au on he Caspian Sea was inished
in 2003. I s low was i s di ec ed o he wes and hen e e sed in o
China a e he comple ion o he en i e pipeline. Nex , in 2006 he pipe-
line om A asu o Alashankou in China was commissioned. Finally, he
i s wo sec ions o a hi d pipeline om A asu o Ak obe egion we e
commissioned in la e 2009. A he same ime, China buil se e al o he
wes - o-eas pipelines. The i s one was cons uc ed in 2004 o supply
gas and i connec s he Ta im Basin in Xinjiang wi h Shanghai. I has
a capaci y o 17 bcm pe yea and anspo s mainly domes ic Chinese
esou ces. A second oil pipeline was commissioned in 2011. I connec s
267 “Company His o y,” Pe oKazakhs an, www.pe okazakhs an.kz/eng/pages/his o y.h ml.
268 “B ie In oduc ion o Rela ions Be ween China and Kazakhs an,” China Daily, 27 May 2005,
www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-05/27/con en _166588.h m.
269 Abdelghani Henni, “The Mys e y o Kashagan,” Socie y o Pe oleum Enginee s, No embe 24,
2014, www.spe.o g/news/a icle/ he-mys e y-o - he-kashagan.
84
o he Kazakhs an–China Oil Pipeline in he bo de ci y o Ho gos.270
A p esen , he e a e h ee pipelines ha expo Kazakhs an’s oil o
o eign cus ome s. The i s one is he old So ie -buil A y au–Sama a
Oil Pipeline leading o Sama a in Russia. The second one is he Caspian
Pipeline Conso ium which since 2001 uns om Kazakhs an along he
no he n sho es o he Caspian Sea o he Russian Black Sea Po o
No o ossiysk. I is he only p i a ely owned oil pipeline going h ough
Russia’s e i o y. The hi d one, he Kazakhs an–China Oil Pipeline, has
been in ope a ion since 2006.271
China’s ac i i ies in Tu kmenis an
China i s signaled i s in e es in he cons uc ion o a gas pipeline om
Tu kmenis an o Xinjiang in 1992. Howe e , coope a ion was s alled
du ing he 1990s o h ee main easons. Tu kmenis an’s P esiden Sapa-
mu a Niyazo was no keen on coope a ion wi h China in he 1990s.
Al hough he la e changed his mind, a ha ime he p e e ed dealing
wi h Russia o cons uc ing al e na i e ou es o I an, India, and Aze -
baijan. Also, Russia s ill had conside able in luence in all o Cen al
Asia.272 In any e en , he CNPC was a ha ime mainly ocused on oil
and no na u al gas.
This all changed in 2006 a e Niyazo ’s dea h and he ascension o
Gu banguly Be dimuhamedow o he p esidency o Tu kmenis an. The
new powe b oke in Ashgaba was much mo e open owa ds China,
which esul ed in ag eemen s o he cons uc ion o a gas pipeline om
Tu kmenis an o China and o he ag eemen s on leasing and p oduc ion
o gas in he Bag yya lyk ields on he igh bank o he Amu Da ya
i e .273 Tu kmenis an ag eed o supply 30 o 40 bcm pe yea o China
in a deal las ing o 30 yea s.274 Many expe s conside ed he Tu kmeni-
270 “Kazakhs an-China Oil Pipeline,” KazMunaiGaz, www.kmg.kz/en/manu ac u ing/oil
/kazakhs an_china.
271 Th assy Ma ke os, “Eas e n Caspian Sea Ene gy Geopoli ics: A Li mus Tes o he U.S.-Rus-
sia-China S uggle o he Geos a egic Con ol o Eu asia,” Caucasian Re iew o In e na ional
A ai s 3, no. 1 (2009): 2–19.
272 Sla omí Ho ák, “Challenges om he Eas : China,” in Pu in’s G and S a egy: The Eu asian
Union and I s Discon en s, eds. S. F ede ick S a and S an e E. Co nell (Washing on D.C.:
Cen al Asia-Caucasus Ins i u e, 2014), 166–179.
273 “S o ony polny eshimos i...,” Tu kmenis an. u, July 18, 2007.
274 “CNPC in Tu kmenis an,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Tu kmenis an/coun y_index.sh ml.
85
s an–China Gas Pipeline o be no hing mo e han a “pape p ojec ” un il
2008.275 Howe e , he i s segmen o ha pipeline was inished as ea ly
as Decembe 2009. I was soon ollowed by he cons uc ion o wo o he
pipeline segmen s. China simul aneously cons uc ed wo wes -eas gas
pipelines on i s own e i o y o anspo gas u he eas .276 Hence, i is
now possible o anspo na u al gas om Tu kmenis an all he way o
he Paci ic coas o China.
China also ocused on gaining di ec o indi ec con ol o hyd o-
ca bon deposi s in Tu kmenis an. The CNPC and Tu kmengaz signed a
echnical ag eemen o ex end hei coope a ion in gas explo a ion in he
Bag yya lyk p oduc ion sha ing ag eemen (PSA) a ea in 2007.277 Th ee
yea s la e , Tu kmenis an announced ha a conso ium consis ing o
he CNPC, LG In e na ional, Hyundai Enginee ing, Gul Oil and Gas
FZE, and Pe o ac In e na ional had won a ende wi h a USD 10 billion
bid o de elop he Sou h Yolo an na u al gas ield. As pa o ha deal,
he CNPC signed a USD 3 billion con ac in which i has he igh o
p oduce en bcm pe yea and keep h ee bcm pe yea o ill i s gas
pipeline o China.278
Mo eo e , China’s De elopmen Bank p o ided Tu kmenis an wi h
a USD 3 billion loan o de elop he Sou h Yolo an gas ield and in 2013
len ano he USD 4 billion o he comple ion o he i s s age o ha
p ojec . Tha same yea , China signed an ag eemen o inance he second
phase o he Galkynysh p ojec o USD 4 billion.279 In all o China’s
dealings wi h Tu kmenis an, he explo a ion igh s o he Galkynysh
deposi we e he mos aluable p ize. O cou se, in i s dealings wi h
Tu kmenis an, China does no ocus only on na u al gas bu also on oil.
Fo ins ance, he CNPC has ope a ed he Gumdag oil ield in wes e n
Tu kmenis an since 2002.280
275 Michael Kla e, Sh inking Plane : How Sca ce Ene gy is C ea ing New Wo ld O de (Ox o d: Ox o d
Uni e si y P ess, 2008), 120–142.
276 “Wes -Eas Gas Pipeline P ojec Begins Comme cial Ope a ion,” Pe oChina, www.pe ochina.
com.cn/p /xwxx/201404/0163d5084c414ee89beb8bed60bb961c.sh ml.
277 “Cons uc ion Commences on he No.1 Gas P ocessing Plan o Amu Da ya P ojec ,” CNPC,
June 30, 2008, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/n 2008/201211/5bb0c4ae7 964968b04a68b08be4629a
.sh ml.
278 “Asian Companies En us ed o De elop Supe Gas Gian Tu kmenis an,” T end News Agency,
Janua y 5, 2010, en. end.az/business/ene gy/1610569.h ml.
279 “China Asse s Clou in Cen al Asia wi h Huge Tu kmen Gas P ojec ,” Reu e s, Sep embe
4, 2013, www. eu e s.com/a icle/us-gas- u kmenis an-galkynysh-idUSBRE9830MN20130904.
280 “CNPC in Tu kmenis an,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Tu kmenis an/coun y_index.sh ml.

86
China’s ac i i ies in Uzbekis an, Tajikis an, and Ky gyzs an
China’s p o ile in Uzbekis an has s ayed lowe han in Kazakhs an and
Tu kmenis an (see Table 8). I ocuses only on s a egic in as uc u e
and he de elopmen o a ew key hyd oca bon deposi s. The CNPC
signed an oil and gas explo a ion ag eemen wi h Uzbekne egaz in June
2006 and c ea ed he A al Sea p ojec conso ium in Augus 2006, which
includes he CNPC, Uzbekne egaz, Lukoil, Pe onas, and Sou h Ko-
ea’s KNOC.281 The conso ium has signed a PSA wi h Uzbekis an. The
CNPC also p o ides geophysical p ospec ing, well d illing, and logging
se ices in Uzbekis an. Mo eo e , i is a signi ican pe oleum equipmen
supplie o Uzbekis an.282
In June 2006, Uzbekne egaz signed a i e-yea ag eemen wi h he
China Na ional Oil and Gas Explo a ion and De elopmen Co po a-
ion o explo a ion wo k wo h USD 208 million in i e blocks in he
Us yu , Bukha a-Khi a, and Fe gana egions. Mo eo e , he CNPC
announced ha i would begin de eloping gas condensa e ields in he
Ka akul block, loca ed in he Bukha a-Khi a egion o Uzbekis an, in
May 2011.283 China also inances some c i ical in es men p ojec s in Uz-
bekis an h ough he Chinese Expo -Impo Bank. In exchange, i has
ob ained easy access o expo s o Uzbekis an’s na u al gas o China
since 2012.284
In he a ea o ene gy, China also main ains ela ions wi h Ky gyzs an
and Tajikis an. Howe e , hose ela ionships do no ha e he in ensi y
no he impo ance o i s ela ions wi h Kazakhs an, Tu kmenis an, and
Uzbekis an.285 Tha migh change i Line D o he Tu kmenis an–China
Gas Pipeline is comple ed because i a e ses he e i o y o hose wo
s a es. China has in es ed in Ky gyzs an’s and Tajikis an’s hyd oelec ic
sec o s, bu i is also ac i e in hei o he sec o s such as indus y and
ag icul u e.286 China has also expanded he de elopmen assis ance i
p o ides o he wo coun ies h ough he Chinese Expo -Impo Bank.
The Expo -Impo Bank is aid-dependen Tajikis an’s mos ex ensi e
281 “CNPC in Uzbekis an,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Uzbekis an/coun y_index.sh ml.
282 Ibid.
283 “China’s CNPC o De elop Gas Condensa e Fields in Uzbekis an,” Times o Cen al Asia, May
12, 2011.
284 Luzyanin, “Rossiya i Ki ay.”
285 Luca Anceschi, “In eg a ing Domes ic Poli ics and Fo eign Policy Making: The Cases o
Tu kmenis an and Uzbekis an,” Cen al Asian Su ey 29, no. 2 (2010): 143–158.
286 Sebas ien Pey ouse, “The Hyd oelec ic Sec o in Cen al Asia and he G owing Role o Chi-
na,” China and Eu asia Fo um Qua e ly 5, no. 2 (2007): 131–148.
87
c edi o , holding 41.3 pe cen o Tajikis an’s ex e nal deb in 2014.287
Because o i s loans, China enjoys eno mous in luence on he in e nal
poli ics o he wo s a es. Thei deb s cons i u e a ca d ha can be played
in case hey a emp o hinde he cons uc ion o Line D.
The Bel and Road Ini ia i e
Almos all o China’s ac i i ies in Cen al Asia can now be subsumed
unde he banne o he Bel and Road Ini ia i e (BRI).288 This p ojec
has wo dimensions. The i s one is he Ma i ime Silk Road, which is an
a emp o inc ease China’s con ol o e sea-based anspo . The second
one is an economic and secu i y p og am, he New Silk Road p ojec ,
which is in ended o connec China o e land wi h Cen al Asia and be-
yond.289 I necessa y, i can subs i u e he exis ing sea-lanes in he e en
o a na al blockade agains China.290
The Bel and Road Ini ia i e mainly combines and elabels ac i i ies
ha we e al eady being pu sued by China a e he all o he So ie
Union. Mo eo e , i ele a es anspo ini ia i es o he le el o geopoli -
ical s a egy.291 To implemen he BRI p ojec , China has c ea ed he Silk
Road Fund wi h USD 40 billion in capi al292 and he Asian In as uc u e
In es men Bank wi h USD 100 billion.293 These wo ins i u ions we e
launched in June 2015. Thei o al esou ces a e app oxima ely equal o
hose o he Japan-backed Asian De elopmen Bank, and hey a e only
sligh ly less han he esou ces commanded by he US-backed Wo ld
Bank. Howe e , hey a e s ill wo and a hal imes less han he esou ces
con olled by he In e na ional Mone a y Fund.294
287 “China Will Lend Tajikis an G an o $32.2 Million,” Amona bonk, May 20, 2015, www.amon-
a bonk. j/en/abou /p ess/no os i/121.
288 William T. Wilson, “China’s Huge One Bel , One Road Ini ia i e Is Sweeping Cen al Asia,”
Na ional In e es , July 27, 2016.
289 Pe e F ankopan, “The Silk Roads Rise Again,” New S a esman, Oc obe 22, 2015, 30–33.
290 Jamie Cooma asamy, “China’s Wes wa d Pi o : Wha I Means o Cen al Asia and Russia,”
Medi e anean Qua e ly 20, no. 9 (2014): 48–60.
291 Jus yna Szczudlik-Ta a , “China’s New Silk Road Diplomacy,” PISM Policy Pape 34, no. 82
(2012): 1–8.
292 “Fund His o y,” Silk Road Fund, www.silk oad und.com.cn/enweb/23775/23767/index.h ml.
293 “Ope a ional Policies,” Asian In as uc u e In es men Bank, euw.aiib.o g/h ml/abou us
/Ope a ional_Policies/Financing/?show=3.
294 Fo mo e on China’s New Silk Road p ojec s see: B ugie , Camille, China’s Way: The New Silk
Road (B ussels: Eu opean Ins i u e on Secu i y S udies, 2014).
88
China’s goal in his e o is he “de-dolla iza ion” o in e na ional
ade. To ha end, i seeks o conclude ag eemen s wi h i s pa ne s and
conduc ade p e e en ially in yuan. Fo ins ance, Gazp om con e ed
i s expo o oil o China en i ely in o yuan in June 2015.295 Russia is
sympa he ic o China’s a emp s o dec ease he ole o he US dolla
in in e na ional ade. Howe e , he wo g ea powe s’ isions o he
u u e wo ld o de clash. China a o s a new bipola i y in in e na ional
ela ions wi h wo supe powe s – he PRC and he Uni ed S a es – while
Russia a o s mul ipola i y and a e u n o a global balance among se -
e al g ea powe s.296
The g ea es p ize o he Bel and Road Ini ia i e is he acili a ion
o China’s ade wi h he Eu opean Union, which amoun s o a billion
eu os a day.297 I China’s goods a e anspo ed o Eu ope ia he ma i-
ime ou e, i akes 20 o 40 days. T anspo ia he inland New Silk Road
can ake only 11 days.298 Howe e , he p ojec ep esen s a eal es o
China’s doc ine o he Fi e P inciples o Peace ul Coexis ence, which
has signi ican suppo among he uling ci cles in Beijing. These i e
p inciples a e: mu ual espec o e i o ial in eg i y and so e eign y,
non-agg ession, non-in e e ence in in e nal a ai s, equali y and mu ual
bene i , and peace ul co-exis ence.299
China has adi ionally ocused on economic coope a ion wi h Cen-
al Asia and le Russia manage he egion’s secu i y. This di ision o
labo could soon change, howe e , as China becomes mo e willing o
pa icipa e in mili a y ope a ions beyond i s bo de s, o example in
A ica.300 In ac , Russia’s mili a y coope a ion s uc u e, he Collec i e
Secu i y T ea y O ganiza ion, p o ed u e ly ine ec i e in he case o
he 2010 c isis in Ky gyzs an.301 Mo eo e , Russia has p o ed i sel o be
unable o con ol he geopoli ics o he egion because i could no block
295 Jack Fa chy, “Gazp om Ne Sells Oil o China in Renminbi Ra he han Dolla s,” Financial
Times, June 1, 2015, www. .com/con en /8e88d464-0870-11e5-85de-00144 eabdc0.
296 Fo mo e on China’s ac i i ies in Cen al and Eas e Eu ope see: Rudol Fü s and Filip Tesař
eds., China’s Comeback in Fo me Eas e n Eu ope: No Longe Com ades, No Ye S a egic Pa ne s
(P ague: Ins i u e o In e na ional Rela ions, 2013).
297 Alessand o A duino, China’s One Bel , One Road: Has he Eu opean Union Missed he T ain? (Sin-
gapo e: Nanyang Technological Uni e si y, 2016), 1–20.
298 Ibid.
299 “Backg ounde : Fi e P inciples o Peace ul Coexis ence,” Xinhua News Agency, news
.xinhuane .com/english/2005-04/08/con en _2803638.h m.
300 “Is China Con ibu ing o he Uni ed Na ions’ Mission?” Cen e o S a egic and In e na-
ional S udies, chinapowe .csis.o g/china-un-mission.
301 Lin, The New Silk Road, 13–19.
89
he deploymen o US oops in he egion a e Sep embe 2001.302 In
he cou se o he 2000s, China unde s ood ha Russia does no ha e he
abili y o s abilize Cen al Asia by i sel , no o p e en i s pene a ion
by o he g ea powe s.303 The e o e, i has come up wi h i s own bid o
egional hegemony in he o m o he Bel and Road Ini ia i e.
I seems ha he BRI p ojec will play a c i ical ole in Sino-Russian
ela ions and will g adually o e shadow he Shanghai Coope a ion
O ganiza ion, which has been he cen al pla o m o collabo a ion
up o he p esen .304 The SCO membe s a es app o ed i s p og am o
mul ila e al economic coope a ion in 2003.305 The p og am assumed ha
by 2010, ba ie s o ade and in es men would be signi ican ly lowe
and ha by 2020 goods, capi al, and se ices would enjoy ee mo emen
be ween i s membe s.306
Bu all o ha has emained on pape only. The SCO has ins ead o-
cused on secu i y coope a ion be ween i s membe s and on p e en ing
he sp ead o US in luence in Cen al Asia. E en he p oposed SCO
de elopmen bank did no ma e ialize. Any hopes o deepe economic
in eg a ion amongs i s membe s we e dispe sed a he U a summi in
2015 when i was ag eed ha India and Pakis an would join he o ga-
niza ion.307 This enla gemen o he o ganiza ion will make any deepe
economic in eg a ion impossible. I shows ha Russia was only buying
ime and was no eally p epa ed o economic in eg a ion in he ame-
wo k o he SCO ou o ea ha China’s economy would o e shadow
i s own.
China began o suppo he idea o a land b idge o Eu ope ha would
bypass Russia soon a e 1991. I paid he Asian De elopmen Bank o
lead he p ojec despi e Russia’s oci e ous opposi ion. Coinciden ally,
he Eu opean Union announced a simila p ojec , he T anspo Co ido
Eu ope–Caucasus–Asia (TRACECA) a ha ime. China pe cei ed he
302 Ho ák, “Challenges om he Eas ,” 166–179.
303 Ma in Hála, “E opa se ozpadá, Eu asie sílí,” Sinopsis.cz, h ps://sinopsis.cz/e opa-se
- ozpada-eu asie-sili.
304 S ephen A is, “The Shanghai Coope a ion O ganisa ion: ‘Tackling he Th ee E ils.’ A Regional
Response o Non- adi ional Secu i y Challenges o an An i-Wes e n Bloc?” Eu ope-Asia S udies
61, no. 3 (2009): 457–482.
305 Alexande F os , “The Collec i e Secu i y T ea y O ganiza ion, he Shanghai Coope a ion
O ganiza ion, and Russia’s S a egic Goals in Cen al Asia,” China and Eu asia Fo um Qua e ly
7, no. 3 (2009): 83–102.
306 “Abou ,” Shanghai Coope a ion O ganisa ion, en.sco- ussia. u/docs/abou / aq.h ml.
307 “A e BRICS, Pu in Hos s Shanghai Coope a ion O ganiza ion Summi in U a,” Radio
F ee Eu ope/Radio Libe y, July 10, 2015, www. e l.o g/a/ ussia-pu in-shanghai-coope a ion
-o ganiza ion-summi -b ics-u a/27120442.h ml.
96
4. Tu kmenis an’s Ene gy Policy
in Cen al Asia
The hi d o he h ee case s udies is de o ed o Tu kmenis an’s ene gy
policy and i s o mula ion in he con ex o he Cen al Asian ESC. Like
he o he s, his chap e is di ided in o ou pa s: ene gy esou ces, en-
e gy ac o s, ene gy policy in gene al, and ene gy policy in he ESC o
Cen al Asia. The con en o he subchap e s is based on an e alua ion
o p ima y and seconda y sou ces o da a. The goal o his pa icula case
s udy is o sea ch o elemen s o he s a egic-o ien ed ene gy policy in
he coun y’s na u al gas policy. These elemen s a e: he pe cep ion ha
ene gy esou ces a e s a egically impo an ; he pe cep ion ha he ene -
gy sec o is c ucial o he s a e’s economy; he pe cep ion ha s a e-owned
ene gy ac o s a e ex ensions o he s a e appa a us; a eliance on bila e al
ela ions a he han mul ila e al a angemen s; he pe cep ion ha he
ene gy sec o is a ool o achie ing he s a e’s policy goals; a ze o-sum
app oach o policy making; he pe cep ion ha dependence on o he
coun ies o ene gy is undesi able; and an emphasis on s a egic goals
o e economic logic. This analysis is a s epping s one in he p ocess o
answe ing he esea ch ques ion: wha is he p edominan o ien a ion o
ene gy policy among he s a es o he ESC o Cen al Asia. The chap e
concludes wi h an analysis o he indica o s ound in he da a.
Ene gy Resou ces
Tu kmenis an’s p edominan expo s a e na u al gas, pe oleum, and
co on. Toge he hey make up mo e han hal o he coun y’s GDP.318
Tu kmenis an is he ou h la ges p oduce o na u al gas in he wo ld
318 Wo ld T ade O ganisa ion, Tu kmenis an.

97
a e I an, Russia, and Qa a . Tu kmenis an’s cu en p o en ese es a e
17.5 cm, which is 9.4 pe cen o he wo ld’s o al ese es.319 I should be
s essed ha Tu kmenis an’s p o en na u al gas ese es ha e signi ican -
ly g own du ing he pas wo decades in compa ison o o he pos -So ie
s a es. Ashgaba ’s na u al gas deposi s we e es ima ed a 2.3 cm in 2002,
bu by he end o he decade hey inc eased o 17.5 cm. In he cou se
o he same pe iod, Russia’s p o en na u al gas ese es only ose om
29.8 cm o 32.9 cm.320 In 2012, Kazakhs an’s p o en na u al gas e-
se es we e 1.3 cm and Uzbekis an’s we e 1.1 cm.321 This unpa alleled
inc ease in he p o en ese es o na u al gas in Tu kmenis an signi ican -
ly s eng hened he coun y’s economic and geopoli ical s anding and
u ned i in o he second bigges ene gy expo e in he egional ene gy
secu i y complex o Cen al Asia a e Russia.322 The de elopmen o he
ene gy sec o also mani es ed i sel in he size o Tu kmenis an’s economy
as shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Basic socio-economic indica o s – Tu kmenis an (2007–2018)
Yea GDP
(billions USD)
GDP pe capi a
(cu en USD)
Inhabi an s
( housands)
2007 12.664 2,600 4,870
2008 19.272 3,904 4,935
2009 20.214 4,036 5,007
2010 22.583 4,439 5,087
2011 29.233 5,650 5,174
2012 35.164 6,675 5,267
2013 39.198 7,304 5,366
2014 43.524 7,962 5,466
2015 35.800 6,433 5,389
2016 36.180 6,389 5,662
2017 37.926 6,587 5,758
2018 40.761 6,967 5,851
Sou ce: The Wo ld Bank
319 “BP S a is ical Re iew o Wo ld Ene gy June 2016,” BP plc, www.bp.com, June 1, 2016.
320 James Do ian, “Cen al Asia: A Majo Eme ging Ene gy Playe in he 21s Cen u y,” Ene gy
Policy 34, no. 5 (2006): 1–13.
321 Ibid.
322 Félix A eaga, “Ene gy Secu i y in Cen al Asia: In as uc u e and Risk,” Secu i y and De ence
1 (2010): 12–23.
98
Tu kmenis an’s la ges p o en ese es a e loca ed in he Galkynysh
gas ield, p obably he second la ges gas ield in he wo ld a e he Sou h
Pa s ield in he Pe sian Gul , which is sha ed by I an and Qa a .323 The
Galkynysh ield includes o he ields ha we e o me ly ega ded as sep-
a a e om i . These a e he Yolo an, Mina a, Osman, and Yashla ields.324
O he essen ial gas deposi s in Tu kmenis an a e he Döwle aba -Donmez
ield, Ko pedzhe ield, Malay ield, Samandepe ield, and Sha lyk ield.
The p oduc ion in he Döwle aba -Donmez ield began in 1982. I is
loca ed on he bo de wi h I an nea he own o Se aghs. This is whe e
pipelines I, II, and IV o he Cen al Asia–Cen e Gas Pipeline Sys em
o igina e. I s ese es a e es ima ed a 1.6 cm. The Ko pedzhe gas deposi
is loca ed in sou hwes e n Tu kmenis an. I is he s a ing poin o he
Ko pedzhe–Ku dkuy Gas Pipeline commissioned in 1997, which se es
no he n I an. I s ese es we e ini ially es ima ed o be 141.9 bcm. The
Malay deposi is loca ed on he le bank o he Amu Da ya i e . In 2009
i was connec ed o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline ia a sepa a e
b anch called he Malay–Bag yya lyk Line. The Samandepe deposi was
disco e ed in 1964 wi h ese es ha we e ini ially es ima ed a 102 bcm.
An on-si e p ocessing plan was buil he e in 2009. The Sha lyk deposi
is loca ed in he Amu Da ya i e basin. The ield ini ia ed p oduc ion
in 1973 when i was connec ed o he Cen al Asia–Cen e Gas Pipeline
Sys em. A p esen , i is also connec ed o he Eas –Wes In e connec o
Gas Pipeline.325 The e a e many o he impo an na u al gas deposi s
in Tu kmenis an, bu hey a e all dwa ed by he Galkynysh gas ield,
which is Tu kmenis an’s mos impo an economic and geopoli ical asse .
Tu kmenis an is one o he gas-p oducing coun ies ha can expo a
subs an ial po ion o hei p oduc ion because o ela i ely low domes ic
demand. Howe e , domes ic demand is apidly inc easing, om 4 bcm
in 1992 o 29.5 bcm in 2016, in pa because he go e nmen supplies
he popula ion o Tu kmenis an wi h gas ee o cha ge unde speci ic
quo as.326 This s ill lea es mo e han hal o he coun y’s p oduc ion
323 Muhammad Quazi, “Cen al Asia: C oss oads o Global Economic S a agem,” Jou nal o
Poli ical S udies 22, no. 1 (2015): 289–301.
324 “S e hgigan skoe gazo oe mes o ozhdenie Tu kmenis ane poluchilo naz anie Galkynysh,”
Tu kmenis an. u, No embe 20, 2011.
325 Ma ha B ill Olco , “In e na ional Gas T ade in Cen al Asia: Tu kmenis an, I an, Russia
and A ghanis an,” Geopoli ics o Na u al Gas S udy, Wo king Pape No. 28, James A. Bake
III Ins i u e o Public Policy (2004), h ps:// si-li e.s3.us-wes -1.amazonaws.com/s3 s-public
/Tu kmenis an_ inal.pd .
326 “Accoun ing o Gas Consump ion Acco ding o In e na ional S anda ds,” Nebi -Gaz, Feb ua y
2, 2016.
99
a ailable o expo . In con as , neighbo ing Uzbekis an consumes
almos all o i s p oduc ion domes ically. Tu kmenis an’s s a e budge is
highly dependen on he expo o na u al gas, co on, and pe ochemi-
cals. Taxes ep esen only app oxima ely one qua e o i s go e nmen
e enues.327 Tu kmenis an’s abili y o expo na u al gas is illus a ed in
Table 16.
Table 16: Tu kmenis an’s expo s o na u al gas, 2008–2019 (bcm)
Yea Russia China I an
2008 39.10 0.00 6.50
2009 10.70 0.00 6.50
2010 9.68 3.55 6.50
2011 10.14 14.25 10.14
2012 9.86 21.29 9.05
2013 9.88 24.41 4.66
2014 9.05 25.49 6.55
2015 2.81 27.75 7.24
2016 0.00 34.20 6.70
2017 0.00 31.70 1.70
2018 0.00 33.30 1.90
2019 0.00 31.60 0.00
Sou ce: S a is ical Re iew o Wo ld Ene gy
Tu kmenis an’s gas p oduc ion eached i s So ie -e a maximum in
1989 wi h 81.4 bcm.328 P oduc ion quickly dec eased du ing he 1990s
because o he b eakup o he So ie Union, alling o 13.1 bcm in
1998. This end somewha imp o ed a e 2000 as p oduc ion eached
66.1 bcm in 2008. Howe e , p oduc ion ell once again due o a c isis
in he coun y’s ela ions wi h Russia, alling o 36.4 bcm. The si ua ion
soon imp o ed hanks o he commissioning o he Tu kmenis an–China
Gas Pipeline. In 2015, Tu kmenis an’s o al p oduc ion eached 69.6 bcm
(see Table 4). Mo eso han Russia, China s ands ou as he mos p omis-
ing ma ke o Tu kmenis an’s na u al gas because i consumes impo ed
gas di ec ly a he han e-expo ing i and because i s consump ion will
327 Anne e Boh , Tu kmenis an: Powe , Poli ics and Pe o-Au ho i a ianism (London: Cha ham House,
2016), 20–35.
328 “BP S a is ical Re iew o Wo ld Ene gy June 2016,” BP plc, www.bp.com, June 1, 2016.
100
e y likely g ow in he sho - o mid- e m due o Chinese go e nmen
policies ha p io i ize en i onmen al p o ec ion.
This subchap e on he ene gy esou ces o Tu kmenis an shows ha
he ene gy sec o is he backbone o he s a e’s economy. Tu kmenis an
became one o he mos impo an ene gy expo e s globally in he 2010s
because o newly ound na u al gas deposi s. Tu kmenis an’s poli ical
eli e unde s and how impo an he coun y’s ene gy sec o is. Be dimu-
hammedow’s egime subsidizes domes ic ene gy supplies because he
poli ical eli e a e in e es ed in con olling he ene gy sec o and conside
i a s a egic asse o main aining popula suppo o he uling egime.
S a e Ac o s in he Ene gy Sec o
The key documen ha es ablishes he ins i u ional amewo k o he
de elopmen o Tu kmenis an’s ene gy sec o is he Law on Hyd oca bon
Resou ces ha was passed in Augus 2008.329 I p ima ily ocuses on he
powe s and esponsibili ies o he S a e Agency o Managemen and Use
o Hyd oca bon Resou ces, con olled by he P esiden o Tu kmenis an
himsel . The Agency is he p incipal ins i u ion o he managemen o
Tu kmenis an’s oil and gas esou ces. I has he powe o issue licenses
o explo a ion and de elopmen o deposi s, oil and gas p oduc ion and
anspo a ion, and o conclude ag eemen s on p oduc ion sha ing. I
has he las say in se ing a i s o anspo h ough he coun y’s gas
pipelines. I concludes ag eemen s wi h o eign in es o s and se s ules
o hei ope a ions in he coun y.330
The Agency was o icially men ioned o he i s ime on Ma ch 12,
2007, when he legisla ion es ablishing i was published. I e ec i ely
eplaced he Compe en Body o he Use o Hyd oca bon Resou ces,
also con olled by he P esiden o Tu kmenis an, which was disbanded
be o e he Agency was c ea ed.331 The Agency de i es e enue om oy-
al ies, bonuses, and income om PSAs and o he con ac s. I ans e s
20 pe cen o i s income o he s a e budge . The es emains in he bud-
ge o he Agency o i s ope a ion. The go e nmen ully con ols he
Agency, and only he p esiden , who appoin s i s di ec o , can o e ule
329 “Zakon Tu kmenis ana ob ugle odo odnykh esu sakh,” Tu kmenis an. u, Augus 20, 2008.
330 “Gosuda s ennoe agen s o po up a leniyu I ispolzo aniyu ugle odo odnykh esu so p i
P eziden e Tu kmenis ana,” Nebi -gaz, www.oilgas.go . m.
331 “Ispolzo anie ugle odo odnykh esu so Tu kmenis ana bude kon oli o a no yi o gan,”
Tu kmenis an. u, Ma ch 10, 2007.
101
i s decisions.332 As o 2017, he Agency was led by P esiden Be dimu-
hamedow’s son-in-law, Döwle A abaýew.333 These a angemen s mean
ha Be idmuhamedow di ec ly and pe sonally con ols Tu kmenis an’s
en i e hyd oca bon sec o and i s eno mous weal h. Be dimuhamedow
hus holds he essen ial ole in se ing he ene gy policy and s a egy o
Tu kmenis an.
The Law on Hyd oca bon Resou ces de ines he condi ions o es-
olu ion o a dispu e be ween he Agency and he holde o a license o
con ac . I p o ides ha dispu es should be se led h ough nego ia ion
i possible, wi h he in ol emen o independen in e na ional expe s
as necessa y. Only i nego ia ions ail may he pa ies a ail hemsel es o
dispu e se lemen p ocedu es ag eed upon in hei con ac . Finally, i
a dispu e canno be se led wi hin h ee mon hs, i can be aken o an in-
e na ional a bi a ion body.334 This las op ion was inco po a ed in o he
law because many o eign en e p ises such as he A gen inian company
B idas had had a e ible expe ience wi h hei in es men s in Tu k-
menis an. These bad expe iences signi ican ly damaged Tu kmenis an’s
business epu a ion ab oad and ha e since de e ed o eign in es men
so much ha i s ene gy sec o s ill su e s. Mo eo e , i enabled China
o gain in luence and esou ces in exchange o in es men s ha can be
pe cei ed as disad an ageous o Tu kmenis an because o he lack o
compe i ion om o he signi ican o eign in es o s.
The e a e also o he s a e ac o s who in luence he ene gy sec o in
Tu kmenis an. Tu kmenis an’s Minis y o Finance has compe ency in
he a ea o a i s. Tu kmen ansgas and Tu kmengaz also mus ag ee
upon gas anspo a ion a i s. Mo eo e , a i s ha e o be app o ed
by he Agency. The Minis y o Finance es ablished a s abiliza ion und
in 2008 ha has p ima y esponsibili y o balancing sho alls in s a e
e enues and planning long- e m in es men s a egy.335 Tu kmenis an’s
Minis y o he Oil and Gas Indus y and Mine al Resou ces se s Tu k-
menis an’s policy in he a ea o mine al esou ces and pe o ms analysis
and planning. I is also in cha ge o he s a e-owned en e p ises in he
hyd oca bon sec o .336
332 Ka e Wa e s, “The P i a e Pocke o he P esiden (Be dymukhamedo ): Oil, Gas and he
Law,” C ude Accoun abili y, Oc obe 2011.
333 Maksa Alikpe o , “Tu kmenskii gaz – semeinyi biznes. U G.Be dymukhamedo a ozhe
za elsya khi yi zya ’ – Do le A abae ,” Kh onika Tu kmenis ana, Feb ua y 4, 2010.
334 Ibid.
335 “Minis e s o inanso Tu kmenis ana,” ineconomic.go . m.
336 “Minis e s o ne i i gaza Tu kmenis ana,” www.oilgas.go . m.

102
The s a e-owned company Tu kmengaz is he mos signi ican en e -
p ise in he coun y. I s ac i i ies cen e on ex ac ion, p oduc ion, and
expo o na u al gas. I manages ex ac ion in mo e han 30 la ge-scale
deposi s such as Döwle aba , Sha lyk, Malay, Ke pichli, Gazlydepe,
Bagadzha, Ga abil, Gu ukbil, and he mos massi e deposi , Galky-
nysh.337 Tu kmenne is also s a e-owned and ocuses on he explo a ion
and de elopmen o oil and gas ields in Tu kmenis an.338 I s mos
impo an oil ields a e Go u depe, Nebi dag, Sou h Gamyshlydzha,
Ko pedzhe, Akpa la uk, Keymi , Eas e n Keymi , and Eas e n Chelek-
en.339 Tu kmengeologiya is asked wi h iden i ying, explo ing, and
p ospec ing new ene gy deposi s.340 Tu kmenne egazs oi deals wi h he
de elopmen o oil and gas ields, cons uc ion o oil and gas pipelines,
and eno a ion o e ining acili ies. I ook pa in he eno a ion and
mode niza ion o e ine ies in Seydi and Tu kmenbashi.341 The s uc u e
o Tu kmenis an’s hyd oca bon indus y complex as o 2017 e y much
esembled hose o o he ene gy expo ing pos -So ie epublics.342
The Law on Fo eign In es men s o 2008 au ho ized p oduc ion
sha ing ag eemen s be ween o eign in es o s and hei coun e pa s in
Tu kmenis an. I also allowed o he es ablishmen o en e p ises wholly
owned by o eign in es o s, b anches o o eign legal en i ies, and o
pu chase o exis ing en e p ises by o eign in es o s.343 Howe e , he
in es men en i onmen in Tu kmenis an is plagued by co up ion and
ba ie s o o eign in es o s.344 T anspa ency In e na ional anked Tu k-
menis an 154 h ou o 168 coun ies anked in i s Co up ion Pe cep ion
Index in 2015.345 In i s 2016 Economic F eedom Index, he He i age
337 “Gosuda s ennyi kon se n Tu kmengaz,” www.oilgas.go . m/m/page/page/25.
338 “Tu kmenis an na ashchi ae ekspo nyi po en sial ugle odo odnykh esu so ,” Tu kmenis an
. u, Feb ua y 8, 2015.
339 “Gosuda s ennyi kon se n Tu kmenne ,” www.oilgas.go . m/m/page/page/26.
340 “Gosuda s ennaya ko po a siya Tu kmengeologiya,” www.oilgas.go . m/m/page/page/27.
341 “Gosuda s ennyi kon se n Tu kmenne egazs oi,” www.oilgas.go . m/m/page/page/28.
342 On Tu kmenis an’s economy see: Jan Ší , “Tu kmenis an: A P omised Land o Doing Busi-
ness? Mac oeconomic Re o ms unde Be dimukhammedow,” China and Eu asia Fo um Qua -
e ly 8, no. 3 (2010): 67–92.
343 “Zakonoda els o Tu kmenis ana ob inos annykh in es i siyakh,” Minis e s o ekonomi-
cheskogo az i iya Rossiiskoi Fede a sii, www. ed.go . u/expo coun ies/ m/abou _ m
/laws_ ed_ m/in es _law_ m, Ma ch 18, 2008.
344 Ga in Hayman and Tom Mayne, “Ene gy- ela ed Co up ion and i s E ec s on S abili y in
Cen al Asia,” China and Eu asia Fo um Qua e ly 8, no. 2 (2010): 137–148.
345 “Co up ion Pe cep ion Index,” T anspa ency In e na ional, www. anspa ency.o g/coun y
/#TKM.
103
Founda ion anked Tu kmenis an nea he bo om, numbe 174 o he
178 coun ies i anked.346
The Tu kmenis an go e nmen used di e en ools o disc imina e
agains “dis a o ed en e p ises” in he pas , such as epea ed ax audi s,
e usals o ex end licenses, non-paymen o deb s, and o ced enego-
ia ions o con ac s. The e a e se e al cases o ic ion be ween he
go e nmen and he I alian company Eni, he Du ch company La mag,
and he A gen inian company B idas.347 The majo i y o he hyd oca bon
indus y is con olled by he s a e. In 2009, as much as 59 pe cen o
Tu kmenis an’s oil and 94 pe cen o i s gas was p oduced by s a e-owned
en i ies.348 This shows how impo an he hyd oca bon sec o , especial-
ly i s gas segmen , is o Be dimuhamedow’s egime in Tu kmenis an.
Mo eo e , i shows ha he c ea ion o p o i does no necessa ily ha e
p io i y o e he s a egic goals o he egime. In o he wo ds, Be dimu-
hamedow conside s he na u al gas esou ces o Tu kmenis an as oo
s a egic an asse o lea e hei di ec ion solely o ma ke o ces.349
In he oil sec o , Tu kmenis an has concluded ou o sho e PSAs wi h
ex e nal pa ne s and h ee onsho e PSAs ha we e ac i e as o 2016. The
o sho e PSAs a e wi h he Russian company I e a, he Cyp io compa-
ny Bu ied Hill, Malaysia’s Pe onas Ca igali, and D agon Oil, which is
wholly owned by Emi a es Na ional Oil Company.350 The CNPC, he
I alian company ENI and he Aus ian company Mi o In e na ional a e
pa ne s in he h ee onsho e PSAs. Compa ed o he CNPC, ENI and
Mi o ope a e on p opo ionally smalle ields in wes e n Tu kmenis an.
ENI is ac i e a he Nebi Dag ield351 and Mi o In e na ional a he
Haza ield.352
In he p oduc ion o na u al gas, Tu kmenis an’s leade ship p e e s
o conclude se ice con ac s wi h Asian o A ab ope a o s. In he i s
346 “2006 Index o Economic F eedom,” He i age Founda ion, www.he i age.o g/index/ anking.
347 Wa e s, “The P i a e Pocke o he P esiden .”
348 “Ekonomicheskaya s a egiya Tu kmenis ana: opi ayas na na od, o imya na oda,” Tu kmeni-
s an. u, Ap il 24, 2010.
349 Fo mo e on poli ical de elopmen s in Be dimuhamedow’s Tu kmenis an see: Sla omí Ho ák
and Jan Ší , Disman ling To ali a ianism? Tu kmenis an unde Be dimuhamedow (Washing on:
Cen al Asia-Caucasus Ins i u e and Silk Road S udies P og am, 2009).
350 “S a us mo skikh ne egazo ykh kon ak o Tu kmenis ane na dekab 2015 goda,” T end.
az, Decembe 24, 2015.
351 “Eni’s Ac i i ies in Tu kmenis an,” Eni, www.eni.com/enipedia/en_IT/in e na ional-p esence
/asia-oceania/enis-ac i i ies-in- u kmenis an.page.
352 “Mi o In e na ional Limi ed,” C ude Accoun abili y, c udeaccoun abili y.o g/campaigns
/ u kmenis an/whos-who-in- u kmenis an-pe oleum-company-dossie s/mi o-in e na ional
-limi ed-aus ia u kmennebi -conso ium- he-khaza -conso ium.
104
phase o he de elopmen o Galkynysh, Tu kmengaz signed con ac s
wi h Gul Oil and Gas FZE and Pe o ac In e na ional LLC, bo h om
he Uni ed A ab Emi a es, wi h he CNPC subsidia y Chuanqing D ill-
ing Enginee ing Company, and wi h a conso ium o LG In e na ional
Co po a ion and Hyundai Enginee ing om Sou h Ko ea. All hese
con ac s we e signed in 2009 and amoun ed o USD 10 billion.353 The
con ac s signaled ha a ha ime, Tu kmenis an was willing o en us
he oil and gas ield de elopmen o less expe ienced en e p ises a he
han o allow Wes e n o Russian in ol emen in i s mos impo an
na u al gas p ojec s.
This subchap e on he ene gy ac o s in Tu kmenis an explains ha
Be dimuhamedow’s egime di ec ly o indi ec ly con ols almos he
en i e y o he coun y’s ene gy sec o . The S a e Agency o he Man-
agemen and Use o Hyd oca bon Resou ces unde he P esiden o
Tu kmenis an along wi h he Tu kmengaz company a e Be dimuhame-
dow’s key ehicles o con olling Tu kmenis an’s ene gy sec o . The
s a e’s g ip on he ene gy sec o is s eng hened by es ic ions on o eign
in es men s and he delibe a e di e si ica ion o he o eign pa ne s ha
a e allowed in o he ene gy sec o . The e we e se e al cases o Tu kmen-
is an’s au ho i ies blocking Wes e n companies’ ac i i ies, among he
a ec ed we e he I alian company Eni, he Du ch company La mag, and
he A gen inian company B idas. These indings con i m ha Tu kmeni-
s an’s egime wan s o ans o m as much o i s na ional powe in o s a e
powe as possible, especially in he ene gy sec o . The egime conside s
s a e-owned o s a e-dependen ene gy ac o s as p ac ical ex ensions o
he s a e appa a us.
Ene gy Policy
Sapa mu a Niyazo ’s dea h on Decembe 21, 2006 was a c ucial mile-
s one in he poli ical and economic de elopmen o he independen
Tu kmenis an.354 He had led he coun y since 1985, when he became
he i s sec e a y o he Communis Pa y o wha was hen he Tu k-
men So ie Socialis Republic.355 The ansi ion o powe a e Niyazo ’s
353 Huseyn Hasano , “Tu kmenis an May Expand Galkynysh Gas Field De elopmen ,” T end.az,
No embe 27, 2015.
354 “F adko p ile el Ashkhabad pokho oni Tu kmenbashi,” Gaze a. u, Decembe 24, 2006.
355 Igo Ya linskiy, “P eziden T ukmenii Sapa mu a Niyazo : Ya pokinu pos gla y gosuda s a
eshe p i zhizni,” Iz es iya, Decembe 21, 2006.
105
dea h was excep ionally quick and abo e all wen e y smoo hly. The
S a e Secu i y Council, an ex acons i u ional body domina ed by ep-
esen a i es o he coun y’s powe s uc u es, appoin ed he Depu y
Chai man o he go e nmen and he Minis e o Heal h, Gu banguly
Be dimuhamedow, as Tu kmenis an’s p esiden .356 To he exis ing powe
b oke s, a smoo h ansi ion seemed like he only way o secu e hei
posi ions and main ain in e nal and ex e nal s abili y.
Be dimuhamedow s a ed o build up his powe base immedia ely
a e his appoin men .357 He go id o he people ha had ele a ed
him o he pos o p esiden , especially he Head o he S a e Secu i y
Council, Akmu a Rejepow. Rejepow’s elimina ion was likely linked
o he cons uc ion o he gas pipeline o China. In ha ega d, he e
a e wo plausible heo ies. The i s heo y specula es ha Rejepow
was he p incipal ad oca e o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline.
Be dimuhamedow had o elimina e him o con ol he c ucial bila e al
ela ionship wi h China di ec ly himsel . The second heo y is ha he
iming o Rejepow’s emo al om powe and imp isonmen indica es
ha Be dimuhamedow mus ha e p omised Vladimi Pu in ha Tu k-
menis an would pa icipa e in he now mo hballed Caspian Coas al Gas
Pipeline p ojec . He had o elimina e Rejepow o pu sue his goal. I is
challenging o e i y o disp o e hese wo claims. None heless, hei
exis ence suppo s he idea ha Be dimuhamedow’s ise o powe was
di ec ly connec ed wi h i al y and compe i ion o con ol o Tu kmen-
is an’s ene gy policy amongs he coun y’s uling eli e. In e ospec ,
i seems ha Be dimuhamedow a o ed close coope a ion wi h China
om he beginning. His ise o powe p obably played a decisi e ole in
making he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline a eali y.358
The ans e o powe om Niyazo o Be dimuhamedow was bo h
legally and symbolically con i med by he adop ion o a new cons i u ion
in 2008. This documen made Tu kmenis an’s ins i u ional s uc u e mo e
like ha o he neighbo ing s a es while con i ming he sup emacy o he
p esiden ’s powe e ical.359 Be dimuhamedow p oclaimed he “E a o
New Renaissance” o succeed Niyazo ’s socio-economic p og am, he
“Golden Age o he Tu kmen,” which Niyazo had p esen ed in 2000.360
This “new e a” was cha ac e ized by la ge-scale cons uc ion p ojec s
356 “Op edelilsya kandida na pos p eziden a Tu kmenii,” NTV, Decembe 28, 2006.
357 “Be dimuhamedow, Gu banguly,” Len a. u, Sep embe 18, 2016.
358 Based on semi-s uc u ed in e iews wi h s akeholde s.
359 “Kons i u siya Tu kmenis ana,” Sep embe 26, 2008.
360 “Epokha no ogo oz ozhdeniya amkakh zolo ogo eka,” Tu kmenis an. u, Augus 8, 2008.
112
Russia o pos pone implemen a ion o high-cos p ojec s in Sibe ia and
he A c ic and o supply Tu kmen gas o he Eu opean ma ke ins ead.
Mo eo e , i enabled Russia o s eng hen i s in luence in o he pos -So-
ie coun ies, mos impo an ly in Uk aine.393
Ne e heless, Russia did no ha e any al e na i e plans when he
global economic c isis un olded in 2009. O e p icing was an i i an in
Russia’s ela ionship wi h Tu kmenis an and o he na u al gas impo -
e s. Howe e , Russia’s posi ion eally s a ed o un a el when China
announced i s p ojec o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline. Russia
ied o espond wi h p oposals o a Caspian Coas al Gas Pipeline and
a econs uc ion o he Cen al Asia–Cen e Gas Pipeline Sys em, bu
i was al eady oo la e. Mo eo e , Gazp om los he ende o build he
s a egic Eas –Wes In e connec o in 2010.
The de e io a ion o Russia’s bila e al ela ionship wi h Tu kmenis an
will ha e u u e consequences. Russia los i s con ol o cheap Tu kmen
gas, which i had con inued o use o i s domes ic needs while sending
i s own gas onwa d o he Eu opean ma ke .394 This de elopmen will
equi e Russia o de elop i s eas e n Sibe ian and A c ic deposi s, which
will be mo e echnologically and inancially demanding. Mo eo e , Chi-
na no only squeezed Russia ou o Tu kmenis an bu also gained c i ical
le e age in any p ice nego ia ions wi h Russia i sel . An example o his
is he di icul nego ia ion p ocess o e he cons uc ion o he Powe o
Sibe ia Gas Pipeline. Finally, Russia’s loss o i s p e-eminen posi ion in
Tu kmenis an has geopoli ical implica ions. Ashgaba o icially p oclaims
i s in en ion o di e si y i s ies wi h China, I an, India, Pakis an, and
he s a es along he Sou he n Ene gy Co ido . Howe e , Tu kmenis an’s
o icials almos ne e men ion upg ading hei ela ionship wi h Russia.
Eas e n ou e
China plays he leading ole in he eas e n ou e ou o Tu kmenis an.
I i s p oposed his op ion o Tu kmenis an’s gas expo s in he ea ly
1990s. Niyazo app o ed he eas e n ou e o Tu kmenis an’s na u al
gas du ing his las isi o China in he sp ing o 2006. He and China’s
hen-leade , Hu Jin ao, ag eed ha China would pu chase Tu kmeni-
s an’s gas and cons uc he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline, wi h a
393 F edholm, “Na u al Gas T ade.”
394 Aleksei Topalo , “Tu kmenskii gaz oboide Rossiyu,” Gaze a. u, Decembe 24, 2015.

113
commissioning planned o he end o 2009.395 Tu kmenis an commi ed
o supplying China wi h 30 bcm pe yea o 30 yea s.396 Howe e , his
ag eemen should no be pe cei ed as some hing se in s one. Ashgaba
had a simila ag eemen wi h Russia, bu when coope a ion wi h Moscow
began o c umble, he ag eemen was la gely o go en. The same could
happen o he ag eemen wi h China i bila e al coope a ion wi h Beijing
loses i s cha m o he powe b oke s in Ashgaba . The 2006 ag eemen
coun ed on supplying China wi h 13 bcm pe yea om he ields on he
igh bank o he Amu Da ya i e unde a PSA wi h he CNPC. Tu k-
menis an could ha e ob ained 17 bcm annually om o he deposi s on
he le bank o he Amu Da ya i e .397
Niyazo ’s o eign policy e lec ed his unwillingness o allow o -
eign coun ies o conclude onsho e con ac s in Tu kmenis an. The
only excep ion o he ule was a p oduc ion sha ing ag eemen on he
Bag yya lyk gas deposi wi h he CNPC which cons i u ed he p ice o
concluding he ag eemen wi h China ega ding he cons uc ion o he
Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline. The CNPC was he i s company
e e gi en he possibili y o de eloping onsho e deposi s in Tu kmen-
is an.398 This o e demons a es o he CNPC jus how impo an he
Tu kmen leade ship conside s an enhanced coope a ion wi h China o
be. I he coun y’s ela ionship wi h Russia con inued o de e io a e and
he e was no op ion o ship na u al gas o China, i would h ea en he
s abili y o he egime in Ashgaba .
One o Be dimuhamedow’s i s o eign isi s was o Beijing in July
2007. He assu ed he Chinese side o his suppo o he 2006 ag eemen
wi h Niyazo . Mo eo e , he announced he disco e y o new gas deposi s
on he igh bank o he Amu Da ya. These newly ound deposi s in-
c eased he geopoli ical weigh o Tu kmenis an and made i he coun y
wi h he ou h-la ges na u al gas ese es in he wo ld. Subsequen o
Be dimuhamedow’s isi , he wo coun ies ag eed on inc eased echno-
logical and economic coope a ion. China also o e ed Tu kmenis an an
in e es - ee loan o he pu chase o Chinese-made d illing igs used o
he de elopmen o ups eam ac i i ies in he gas ields.399
395 “So udniches o po gazu s Tsen alnoi Aziei,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/ u/zy qgdz
/zy qgdz _2.sh ml.
396 “Ki ai i Tu kmenis an podpisali d a soglasheniya o so udniches e gazo oi s e e,” Tu kmen-
is an. u, July 17, 2007.
397 “Tu kmen, Chinese Leade s Sign Acco ds, Issue S a emen ,” ITAR-TASS, Augus 29, 2008.
398 “CNPC in Tu kmenis an,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Tu kmenis an/coun y_index.sh ml.
399 “S o ony polny eshimos i...,” Tu kmenis an. u, July 18, 2007.
114
The CNPC o ganized a ce emony celeb a ing he s a o he con-
s uc ion o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline in he illage o
Bag yya lyk in Tu kmenis an’s eas e n Lepab egion on Augus 29, 2007.
The pipeline was commissioned in Decembe 2009 and is 1,833 kilome e s
long.400 I s a s a he Bag yya lyk ield and uns o 188 kilome e s o he
bo de wi h Uzbekis an. I hen a e ses 530 kilome e s o Uzbekis an
and en e s Kazakhs an nea he own o Shymken . I uns o ano he
1,115 kilome e s on Kazakh e i o y un il i eaches China’s bo de a
Ho gos. The na u al gas hen con inues on o China’s megalopolises in
he eas . Line B o he pipeline was commissioned one yea a e Line
A, in 2010. Line A and Line B ha e a combined capaci y o 30 bcm pe
yea .401 I was hus ine i able ha ano he pipeline would ha e o be buil
in o de o ul ill Tu kmenis an’s ag eemen o ship 40 bcm annually o
China.402
The coope a ion be ween Tu kmenis an and China was de eloping
apidly and well. Bo h sides ag eed o a new amewo k ag eemen in
2012. The yea 2020 was he endpoin o China’s hen-cu en i e-yea
plan and he e was a g ea p essu e o ul ill ha a ge by hen. A oad
map o u he de elopmen o he Bag yya lyk and Galkynysh ields
and o add a Line C o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline wi h a
capaci y o 25 bcm was ag eed upon in 2013.403
Line C uns pa allel o he wo p e ious lines and was commissioned
in June 2014.404 The pa ies ag eed o cons uc Line D wi h ano he
25 bcm o capaci y in Sep embe 2013. Howe e , i s pa h will be much
di e en han ha o he h ee p e ious lines. When comple ed, i will
s a a he Bag yya lyk ield and hen un 205 kilome e s h ough Uz-
bekis an. Subsequen ly, i will a e se 415 kilome e s o Tajikis an and
225 kilome e s o Ky gyzs an be o e eaching Kashga on China’s bo -
de .405 The cons uc ion o some segmen s o Line D began in 2014, and
i was s ill unde cons uc ion as o la e 2021.406
400 “Leade s Ga he o Inaugu a e Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline,” The Canadian P ess, Decem-
be 13, 2009.
401 “So udniches o po gazu s Tsen alnoi Aziei,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/ u/zy qgdz
/zy qgdz _2.sh ml.
402 “Ashgaba , Beijing S and o Ensu ing he Secu i y o Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline,”
T ibune Business News, No embe 25, 2011.
403 “Tu kmen Gas Expo s o China o Hi 65 Bcm/Yea by 2020,” Reu e s, Sep embe 3, 2013.
404 “Flow O Na u al Gas om Cen al Asia,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Flowo na u algas
omCen alAsia/Flowo na u algas omCen alAsia2.sh ml.
405 Jack Fa chy, “China Seeking o Re i e he Silk Road,” Financial Times, May 9, 2016.
406 “Chinese Na u al Gas Deals in Cen al Asia Fo eshadow Expanded Pipeline P ojec ,” RWR
115
The cons uc ion o he i s h ee lines o he Tu kmenis an–China
Gas Pipeline had a signi ican impac on he geoeconomic and ge poli ical
s a us quo in Cen al Asia. Russia was Tu kmenis an’s p ima y ade
pa ne be o e he c isis in hei ela ions in 2009. China has aken o e
Russia’s posi ion since hen. In ac , China is becoming much mo e
dominan as a ade pa ne wi h Tu kmenis an han Russia e e was.
Tu kmenis an supplied Russia wi h 39.1 bcm in 2008 and sen I an an
addi ional 6.5 bcm. Expo s o I an ha e emained much he same up o
he p esen . Howe e , Russia ob ained only 10.7 bcm om Tu kmenis an
in 2009. Tu kmenis an’s supplies o China su passed hose o Russia in
2011, when i sen 14.25 bcm o China and only 10.14 bcm o Russia. In
2014, China ob ained 25.9 bcm om Tu kmenis an, while Russia only
ecei ed 10 bcm. Wi h he opening o Line C in 2015, China ob ained
27.75 bcm and Russia 2.81 bcm. Tu kmenis an s opped all gas expo s o
Russia in 2016. The esul was ha China en i ely supplan ed Russia as
Tu kmenis an’s dominan economic pa ne in less han eigh yea s’ ime.
Nowadays, China does no limi i s in es men s in Tu kmenis an
o he hyd oca bon sec o . I has ecen ly in es ed in anspo and
chemicals, elecommunica ions, cons uc ion, and ligh indus y. This
in es men goes hand in hand wi h China’s Bel and Road Ini ia i e,
which ocuses on connec i i y and in as uc u e de elopmen in he
Cen al Asian egion and beyond.407 I is also linked o he olde “Go
Wes ” s a egy ha was aimed a he economic de elopmen o China’s
wes e n egions and adjacen Cen al Asian e i o ies.
China’s ac ions in he Cen al Asian ESC should be iewed as pa
o a b oade s a egic ini ia i e ha is no aimed only a gene a ing
p o i s. The p ice o na u al gas impo ed om Cen al Asia is highe
han o he gas ex ac ed domes ically in China, o say no hing abou
China’s ese es o coal.408 China has h ee chie s a egic p io i ies in he
Cen al Asian egion. I wan s o s abilize i s wes e n egions, including
Tibe and Xinjiang, as well as he adjacen Cen al Asian s a es and
keep hem s able. The Line D p ojec o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas
Pipeline should be seen p ima ily in his ligh . Nex , China’s opening
up o Cen al Asia is a means o economic di e si ica ion and i c ea es
Ad iso y, Janua y 23, 2021, h ps://www. w ad iso y.com/chinese-na u al-gas-deals-in
-cen al-asia- o eshadow-expanded-pipeline-p ojec .
407 William T. Wilson, “China’s Huge ‘One Bel , One Road’ Ini ia i e Is Sweeping Cen al Asia,”
Na ional In e es , July 27, 2016.
408 And ew Moody, “Go Wes ’ Policy is an Economic Miles one o Na ion,” China Daily, Sep em-
be 12, 2011.
116
a b idgehead o links o he esou ces o he Middle Eas and he ma -
ke s in Eu ope. Pa o China’s eli e belie e ha ha ing mo e pipelines
is he only hing ha can p o ide China wi h g ea e ene gy secu i y.409
This belie is jus i ied when one conside s he possibili y ha ma i ime
ou es migh empo a ily be cu o . Finally, China has gained signi ican
le e age in i s ela ionship wi h Russia by pene a ing Cen al Asia. This
le e age has al eady become isible du ing he nego ia ions o e he
cons uc ion o he Powe o Sibe ia Gas Pipeline.
Sou he n ou e
Tu kmenis an plays a leading ole in he sou he n ou e a p esen . I is
a emp ing o s eng hen i s geos a egic posi ion h ough e en mo e
ene gy expo di e si ica ion. Tu kmenis an has unde s ood he impo -
ance o Pakis an’s and India’s ene gy ma ke s o i s u u e hyd oca bon
expo s since he ea ly 1990s. Tha is how he idea o he Tu kmeni-
s an–A ghanis an–Pakis an Gas Pipeline was concei ed. This p ojec is
p oceeding in une wi h he in e es s o he Uni ed S a es in he egion
and was suppo ed ea ly on by he New Silk Road Ac passed by he US
Cong ess in 1999.410
The hen-Sec e a y o S a e Hilla y Clin on p oposed a New Silk
Road Ini ia i e in 2011. This ini ia i e’s goal was o connec Cen al Asia
mo e closely wi h he Indian subcon inen h ough A ghanis an.411 The
goal was o inc ease he p ospe i y o bo h egions and o dec ease he in-
luence o Russia and I an in he Cen al Asian ESC.412 Howe e , he US
app oach ocused oo much on s abilizing A ghanis an and lacked mo e
p ecise and solici ous conside a ion o he Cen al Asian pa ne s, whose
bene i was conside ed mo e as a means o an end han an independen
goal o he US egional policy.
A pipeline o he Indian subcon inen has been in he making since
he ea ly 1990s. Niyazo concluded a memo andum o unde s anding o
he cons uc ion o a gas pipeline o Pakis an wi h i s P ime Minis e ,
409 Michael Schoenhals and Xiaolin Guo, Cad es and Discou se in he People’s Republic o China
(S ockholm: ISDP, 2007).
410 “Silk Road S a egy Ac o 1999,” Lib a y o Cong ess, www.go ack.us/cong ess/bills/106
/h 1152/summa y.
411 Michael Cla ke, “China’s S a egy in G ea e Cen al Asia: Is A ghanis an he Missing Link?”
Asian A ai s: An Ame ican Re iew 40, no. 1 (2013): 1–19.
412 “U.S. Suppo o he New Silk Road,” US Depa men o S a e, www.s a e.go /p/sca/ci/a
/newsilk oad.
117
Benazi Bhu o, in Ma ch 1995. The in e na ional conso ium o he
Tu kmenis an–A ghanis an–Pakis an Gas Pipeline was c ea ed in 1997
wi h he US company Unocal a i s head. The p ojec was se iously de-
layed by he uns able si ua ion in A ghanis an, he US emba go agains
he Taliban, and he e en s ha ollowed he e o is a acks in he
Uni ed S a es on Sep embe 11, 2001.413
The pipeline p ojec was esusci a ed a a ila e al summi in Islam-
abad in 2002 as he TAP (Tu kmenis an–A ghanis an–Pakis an) Gas
Pipeline.414 India began o show in e es in he p ojec in 2005, and since
hen i has been e e ed o as he TAPI Gas Pipeline.415 In 2006, he
Asian De elopmen Bank ini ially es ima ed he cos o he TAPI p ojec
a USD 2.6 billion.416 Howe e , i boos ed i s es ima e o USD 7.6 billion
in 2015. As o 2006, he p ice was es ima ed a USD 10 billion because
o a ious delays.417 The p ojec ed capaci y o he pipeline is 33 bcm pe
yea . I should s a a he Galkynysh ield in sou heas Tu kmenis an and
con inue h ough A ghanis an along he oad om He a o Kandaha .
Subsequen ly, i would con inue h ough Baluchis an and Punjab in
Pakis an be o e eaching he bo de wi h India a Fazilka.418 Howe e ,
i emains o be seen how will his dynamic be in luenced by Taliban’s
seizu e o powe in A ghanis an in la e 2021.
The ag eemen ega ding he cons uc ion o he TAPI pipeline was
signed by he ou pa icipa ing coun ies in 2010 a he ac i e u ging o
Tu kmenis an. I s du a ion was se a 30 yea s.419 Mo eo e , Tu kmeni-
s an signed ag eemen s wi h he wo main po en ial pu chase s, he Gas
Au ho i y o India, L d. (GAIL) and he S a e Gas Sys ems o Pakis an,
in 2012.420 Those ag eemen s con ained a clause s a ing ha i Pakis an
413 Fa ima Quama and Sume a Za a , “New G ea Game: Playe s, In e es s, S a egies and Cen-
al Asia,” Resea ch Jou nal o Sou h Asia S udies 29, No. 2 (2014): 623–652.
414 “Niyazo i Ka zai zaya ili o go o nos i s oikh s an eanimi o a p oek ansa ganskogo
gazop o oda,” Tu kmenis an. u, Ma ch 7, 2002.
415 “Indiiskii diploma zaya il, ch o ego s ana khoche s a odnim iz samykh k upnykh pokupa-
elei u kmenskogo gaza,” Tu kmenis an. u, Augus 16, 2006.
416 “Niyazo i Ka zai zaya ili o go o nos i s oikh s an enimi o a p oek ansa ganskogo
gazop o oda,” Tu kmenis an. u, Ma ch 7, 2002.
417 Manish Vaid, “TAPI Pipeline P og esses, bu Fu u e Unce ain,” Oil and Gas Jou nal, May 2,
2016.
418 “TAPI Gas Pipeline,” Asian In es men Bank, Ap il 8, 2016, www.adb.o g/news/in og aphics
/ api-gas-pipeline.
419 Oleg Lukin, “No oe uslo gazo oi eki,” Tu kmenis an. u, Janua y 24, 2011.
420 Sanke Sudhi Kulkani, “The Elephan and he Tige : Ene gy Secu i y, Geopoli ics, and
Na ional S a egy in China and India’s C oss-Bo de Pipelines,” Ene gy Resea ch and Social
Science 11 (2016): 16–19, h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.e ss.2015.09.010.

118
blocks gas supplies o India, Tu kmenis an is obliged o do he same o
Pakis an.421 In his way, he nego ia o s a emp ed o p e en he Indo-Pa-
kis ani con lic in Kashmi om in e e ing wi h he implemen a ion o
he pipeline p ojec . Tu kmenis an signed ano he ag eemen wi h he
A ghan Gas Co po a ion in 2013.422
One yea la e , he pa icipa ing coun ies ag eed o c ea e a con-
so ium ha would build and ope a e he pipeline. Tu kmengaz was
endo sed as he leade o he conso ium, known as he TAPI Pipeline
Co. L d., in Augus 2015. Tu kmengaz, A ghan Gas Co po a ion, Paki-
s an’s In e S a e Gas Sys ems, L d., and India’s GAIL ook equal sha es
in he conso ium.423 In Oc obe 2015, he conso ium’s s ee ing com-
mi ee adop ed a sha eholde s’ ag eemen se ing o h he igh s and
obliga ions o he pa ies in ol ed. Tu kmengaz p omised o con ibu e
85 pe cen o he pipeline’s cos s. The es o he cos s we e o be di id-
ed among he o he h ee membe s.424 Tu kmengaz’s p omise o co e
85 pe cen o he pipeline’s cos s di ec ly con adic ed Tu kmenis an’s
policy o selling gas a he s a e bo de , which had been in place since
Niyazo ’s ime. I s willingness o ake so much o he cos s on i sel shows
how i al di e si ica ion o ene gy expo ma ke s is o he uling egime
in Ashgaba . Wi hou TAPI, Tu kmenis an’s dependence on China as i s
main expo ma ke will g ow unchecked.
E en hough he TAPI Gas Pipeline is s ill a pipe d eam o he mos
pa , i is p og essing in i s own way. The pa ies ha e shown a g ea deal
o nego ia ing skill, especially Tu kmenis an, which was able o gain he
posi ion o he p ojec ’s leade . The e a e h ee posi i e implica ions o
he pa ies. Fi s , wi h his p ojec Tu kmenis an can educe i s g owing
dependence on China’s demand. A p esen , he ela ionship is s ill
ad an ageous o bo h pa ies, bu ha can soon change. The e is a pos-
sibili y ha China will ei he dec ease i s demand due o an economic
down u n o y o use he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline as le e age
agains Ashgaba . Second, all o he pa ne coun ies will gain bene i s
om he p ojec despi e i s high cos s. This is especially ue o Pakis an
and India wi h hei inc easing ene gy demand. Finally, he TAPI will
c ea e much-desi ed poli ical ies be ween Cen al and Sou h Asia.
421 Ibid.
422 “V Ashkhabade sos oyalos zasedanie u kmeno-pakis anskoi mezhp a i els ennoi komissii,”
Tu kmenis an. u, Ap il 21, 2012.
423 “TAPI Sha eholde s Ag eemen Ini ialed,” Asian In es men Bank, Oc obe 26, 2015,
www.adb.o g/news/ api-sha eholde s-ag eemen -ini ialed.
424 Ibid.
119
Rou e h ough I an
The ques ion o Tu kmenis an’s connec ion wi h he ou side wo ld
h ough I an is s ill open. In Augus 1994, Niyazo me wi h I an’s P es-
iden Akba Hashemi Ra sanjani. They concluded an ag eemen o a gas
pipeline om Tu kmenis an o I an ha was mean o be buil wi hin se -
en yea s. Howe e , bo h Russia and he Uni ed S a es opposed he deal
a he ime. Russia was agains any possible di e si ica ion o Tu kmeni-
s an’s expo s. The Uni ed S a es much p e e ed he T ans-Caspian Gas
Pipeline. The e we e also signi ican pe sonal con lic s be ween Niyazo
and he Aze i P esiden Heyda Aliye . Ne e heless, in 1997 he Ko -
peje–Ko dkuy Gas Pipeline o I an was commissioned.425 Tha pipeline
howe e did no ep esen a decisi e s ep in di e si ying Tu kmenis an’s
expo s because o i s low capaci y and solely egional impo ance.
None heless, since ha yea I an has become Tu kmenis an’s second
mos impo an hyd oca bon expo pa ne a e Russia. I an was
Tu kmenis an’s only al e na i e o he Russian-con olled no he n ou e
un il 2009. The Ko peje–Ko dkuy gas pipeline uns 200 kilome e s om
he Ko peje ield o he I anian own o Ko dkuy.426 In 2010, he wo
coun ies opened a second gas pipeline, he Dowle aba –Sangbas Gas
Pipeline, connec ing he Dowle aba gas ield in sou he n Tu kmenis an
wi h Sa akhs in I an.427 The capaci y o each is 12 bcm yea ly.428 E en
hough he combined capaci y o hose wo pipelines is 24 bcm pe yea ,
i usually goes pa ially unused. I an impo s only abou 10 bcm a yea
om Tu kmenis an.
I an has been Tu kmenis an’s second la ges gas expo ma ke since
2011 when i su passed Russia.429 The wo gas pipelines om Tu kmen-
is an a e impo an o I an om a domes ic poin o iew because hey
help supply some emo e a eas o he coun y ha a e close o Tu kmen-
is an’s gas deposi s han o hose o I an. They also show he ambi ions
o I an’s egional designs and policies and hei limi s. A p esen , he e
is li le o no hope ha Tu kmenis an will be able o anspo i s na u al
425 “Che nomy din Ashkhabade i Dushanbe,” Neza isimaya Gaze a, No embe 14, 1998, www
.uni-po sdam.de/u/sla is ik/za chi /0198wc/k002-13.h m.
426 “Sapa mu a Niyazo Inaugu a es Gas Comp esso S a ion a Ko peje Na u al Gas Field,”
Tuk menis an. u, Sep embe 14, 2005.
427 “To zhes enno zapushchen no yi gazop o od iz Tu kmenis ana I an,” Tu kmenis an. u,
Janua y 7, 2010.
428 B uce Pannie , “Tu kmen Gas Expo s o I an a Boon o Bo h Coun ies,” RFE/RL, Janua y
6, 2010.
429 “BP S a is ical Re iew o Wo ld Ene gy June 2016,” BP plc, www.bp.com, June 1, 2016.
120
gas u he wes by u ilizing I an’s na u al gas g id, because I an, which
p oduces a conside able amoun o gas i sel , ocuses in he i s place
on he expo o i s own esou ces.430 As ye , he e a e no signs ha I an
would be willing o allow Tu kmenis an o e-expo I anian gas h ough
i s e i o y o Eu ope. On he o he hand, I an has plans o supply India
wi h i s domes ically p oduced gas. Fo ha eason, i has been ying o
slow down he TAPI Gas Pipeline p ojec .431
Wes e n ou e
Finally, he e is he c i ical issue o Tu kmenis an’s connec ion o he
wes . Du ing he Niyazo e a, he ela ions be ween Aze baijan and
Tu kmenis an we e complex. Ne e heless, he Caspian Sea should no
be pe cei ed as a ba ie bu a he as a somewha unc ional connec ion
be ween Cen al Asia and he Caucasus. The p oblems wi h Aze baijan
we e p ima ily caused by dispu es o e ou signi ican oil and gas depos-
i s in he Caspian claimed by bo h Tu kmenis an and Aze baijan.432 These
dispu es impeded bo h s a es om he de elopmen o hei esou ces in
he Caspian.433 The Uni ed S a es has igo ously p omo ed he p ojec o
he T ans-Caspian Gas Pipeline since he ea ly 1990s. Washing on hoped
ha i would b ing mo e p ospe i y o he Caspian egion, inc ease he
di e si y o sou ces o ene gy o Eu ope, and educe he in luence o
Russia and I an in he egion.434
In 1998, he US and Tu kish go e nmen s e en p oposed ha hey
would pa ly inance and gua an ee he cons uc ion.435 Howe e , any
p ospec s o a quick cons uc ion o he T ans-Caspian Pipeline we e
soon o pedoed by Aze baijan, which ound a sizeable o sho e ield in
i s own pa o he Caspian in he yea 2000. Aze baijan demanded hal
o he capaci y o he p oposed pipeline and pu Tu kmenis an’s po en ial
430 “P eziden Tu kmenis ana pose i s izi om I an i p ime uchas ie sammi e gla gosuda s
– ekspo e o gaza,” Tu kmenis an. u, No embe 22, 2015.
431 “TAPI S uck as I an, LNG P o ide Be e Op ions,” BMI Resea ch, Ma ch 24, 2016.
432 Gawda Bahga , “Pipeline Diplomacy: The Geopoli ics o he Caspian Sea Region,” In e na-
ional S udies Pe spec i es 3, no. 3 (2007): 310–327.
433 Ho ák and Ší , Disman ling To ali a ianism, 44–68.
434 Nu i Akyol, A Na u al Gas Pipeline C ossing he Caspian Sea Basin – Which Fac o s Con ibu e o I s
Ad ancemen o Impedimen ? (Del : Del Uni e si y o Technology, 2009), 39–74.
435 S ephen J. Blank, Tu kmenis an and Cen al Asia a e Niyazo (Washing on: S a egic S udies
Ins i u e, 2007), 26–43.
121
p o i s om he ope a ion in doub .436 The Aze is’ demand o ced Tu k-
menis an o nego ia e a new gas deal wi h Russia in 2003. I mo i a ed
Tu kmenis an o look o al e na i e expo ma ke s ha would ha e a
secu e, adequa e demand. Tu kmenis an ound such a eliable pa ne
in China in 2006.
Howe e , he ice a ound he nego ia ions o a T ans-Caspian Gas
Pipeline began o mel a e Be dimuhamedow became p esiden . He
me wi h his Aze i coun e pa Ilham Aliye o he i s ime in he
cou se o he CIS summi in Sain Pe e sbu g in June 2007.437 They ag eed
o eopen Tu kmenis an’s embassy in Baku, which had been closed since
2001 when he alks on he T ans-Caspian Gas Pipeline ailed due o he
pe sonal an ipa hies be ween Ilham Aliye ’s a he Heyda and Niya-
zo .438 A he same ime, Be dimuhamedow es a ed discussions abou
he T ans-Caspian Gas Pipeline and sugges ed connec ing i wi h he
planned Eas –Wes In e connec o in 2010.439
In 2011, he Eu opean Commission was asked wi h leading he ne-
go ia ions o a deal be ween Aze baijan and Tu kmenis an ha would
allow building he T ans-Caspian pipeline as pa o he EU’s Sou he n
Gas Co ido .440 Tha made i clea ha he p ojec has s a egic alue
o he Eu opean Union, which is why i suppo ed he p ojec .441 In
he same yea , Aze baijan subs i u ed suppo o he T ans-Ana olian
Na u al Gas Pipeline (TANAP) o he ill- a ed p ojec o he Nabucco
Gas Pipeline.442 TANAP will s a a Aze baijan’s Shah Deniz II ield
and pass h ough Tu key o Eu ope. I s p oposed capaci y is 16 bcm pe
yea , and i was commissioned in 2018.443 In 2013, i was ag eed ha he
T ans-Ad ia ic Pipeline would anspo gas om TANAP u he in o
Wes e n Eu ope. The e is an open-doo policy o an addi ional link
om Tu kmenis an.444
436 Ibid.
437 “V Baku sos oyalis pe ego o y mezhdu Gu banguly Be dymukhamedo ym i Ilkhamom
Alie ym,” Tu kmenis an. u, May 20, 2008.
438 Ibid.
439 “Tu kmeniya nachala s oi gazop o od k Kaspiyu,” Tu kmenis an. u, May 31, 2010.
440 “Gas and Oil Supply Rou es,” Eu opean Commission, ec.eu opa.eu/ene gy/en/ opics
/impo s-and-secu e-supplies/gas-and-oil-supply- ou es.
441 “EU-Tu kmenis an Rela ions – Fac shee ,” Eu opean Ex e nal Ac ion Se ice, eeas.eu opa.eu
/ ac shee s/news/eu- u kmenis an_ ac shee _en.h m.
442 Kuszni , “The Sou he n Gas Co ido ,” 41–45.
443 “T ans-Ana olian Gas Pipeline P ojec ,” TANAP, www. anap.com/ anap-p ojec /why- anap.
444 “V Ashkhabade sos oyalis pe ego o y p eziden o Tu kmenis ana i Tu sii,” Tu kmenis an. u,
No embe 8, 2014.
128
wan you gas.”463 Howe e , Tu kmenis an began o look igo ously
o new expo ou es. Niyazo go his e enge in Decembe 1999 a e
Gazp om’s p oduc ion had s a ed o dec ease in he second hal o he
1990s. I was hen mo e han clea ha Russia could no sa is y Eu o-
pean demand wi hou coope a ion wi h Tu kmenis an. Vyakhi e was
a aid o he planned cons uc ion o he T ans-Caspian Gas Pipeline,
so he came pe sonally o Ashgaba , whe e he publicly apologized o
Niyazo and Tu kmenis an o his p e ious s a emen s and beha io in
a li e b oadcas . This episode did no help o imp o e he ela ionship
be ween Tu kmenis an and Russia. On he con a y, i made i almos
un epai able.464
The gas issue was so c i ical o Russia ha Pu in’s i s o eign isi
as p esiden o Russia was o Tu kmenis an and Uzbekis an in 2000. The
issue was soon enmeshed in he in e nal poli ics o bo h coun ies. Ni-
yazo ha bo ed a g owing ea o his li e and he s abili y o his egime.
He wi hd ew Tu kmenis an om he isa- ee egime wi h he o he
CIS s a es in 1999. Howe e , he issue o Tu kmens’ dual ci izenship
wi h Russia emained o be esol ed. This issue was impo an p ima ily
because many o he people accused o Niyazo ’s a emp ed assassina-
ion in 2002 had dual Tu kmenis an and Russian ci izenships. Niyazo
consen ed o he new gas deal wi h Russia in Ap il 2003 in exchange o
Russia’s e ec i e aboli ion o dual ci izenship.
Rela ions be ween Russia and Tu kmenis an signi ican ly de e io a -
ed unde Pu in. Vyakhi e and Che nomy din iewed Gazp om as hei
business and Tu kmenis an as a compe i o . Howe e , Pu in pe cei ed
and s ill pe cei es Gazp om as a ool o o eign policy and Cen al Asia
as a egion ha should be unde Russia’s i m con ol. Pu in’s goal was
o ake all o Tu kmenis an’s gas expo s and p e en i om gaining
di ec access o Eu opean ma ke s.465 Ne e heless, Russia con inued o
abuse i s ad an age o e Tu kmenis an. Tu kmenis an ied i s bes o
escape Russia’s s anglehold on i s hyd oca bon esou ces, bu a e he
us a ion wi h he Wes and ailed deals wi h I an, i chose o emb ace
coope a ion wi h China.466
463 S. F ede ick S a , “Uzbekis an and Tu kmenis an: S aying Away,” in: Pu in’s G and S a egy:
The Eu asian Union and I s Discon en s, eds. S. F ede ick S a and S an e E. Co nell (Washing-
on: Cen al Asia and Caucasus Ins i u e – Silk Road S udies P og am, 2014), 156–166.
464 Dmi ii Simako , “I e a pe es ala by azbo chi oi ne es oi,” Vedomos i, Ma ch 1, 2012,
www. edomos i. u/opinion/a icles/2012/03/01/i e a.
465 Zyga and Panyushkin, Gazp om, 121–148.
466 Ka hleen J. Hancock, “Escaping Russia, Looking o China: Tu kmenis an Pins Hopes on
China’s Thi s o Na u al Gas,” China and Eu asia Fo um Qua e ly 4, no. 3 (2006): 67–87.

129
No ma e wha Russia did a e Che nomy din’s a e ul, an agonis ic
decision o cu o impo s om Tu kmenis an in 1998, Niyazo needed
a obus al e na i e o he na u al gas expo ou e o and h ough Rus-
sia. In jus one decade, na u al gas began o low om Tu kmenis an
in o China ia he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline. Tu kmenis an’s
expo s o Russia had been g adually dec easing be o e ha and in ea ly
2016 ceased al oge he . In he end, Russia’s high-handed app oach o i s
pos -So ie neighbo did no pay o .
The loss o Tu kmenis an’s esou ces will ha e subs an ial conse-
quences o Russia’s economy. Russia’s weak and co up handling o
Tu kmenis an’s na u al gas expo s o Uk aine con ibu ed o an ago-
nizing he Tu kmen du ing he so-called “gas wa s” be ween Russia and
Uk aine om 2005 o 2010. Russia ied o use he na u al esou ces o
i s neighbo s in he pos -So ie space in a “di ide and conque ” s a egy.
Howe e , i s pawns we e no longe willing o play he game.
The c isis o 1998 was e y simila o he c isis o 2008. In bo h cases,
Russia was eeling om an economic c isis and he e o e unila e ally
diminished i s gas impo s om Tu kmenis an. The i s c isis led Tu k-
menis an’s uling eli e o he conclusion ha hey needed o ind an
al e na i e o hei i esponsible Russian in e media y. The second c isis
con inced Tu kmenis an’s eli e ha Russia was a e minally sick business
pa ne and cemen ed in place he decision o swi ch hei a en ion o
China.
Tu kmenis an’s ela ionship wi h he China Na ional
Pe oleum Co po a ion
The planning o he cons uc ion o he i s wo lines o he Tu kmen-
is an–China Gas Pipeline began in 1998. Howe e , he plans we e no
ansla ed in o eali y un il eigh yea s la e , du ing Niyazo ’s hi d s a e
isi o China on Ap il 3, 2006.467 Niyazo hen signed an ag eemen wi h
his Chinese coun e pa , Hu Jin ao, o China o pu chase 30 billion
cubic me e s o na u al gas pe yea o a pe iod o 30 yea s.468 To all in-
en s and pu poses, Russia’s economic s anglehold on Cen al Asia was
b oken ha day, a leas on pape . I ook h ee mo e yea s be o e he
467 “Tu kmenis an, China Sign Coope a ion Deals,” Tu kmen TV Al yn Asy , Ap il 4, 2006.
468 “Tu kmenis an Seen Cul i a ing Gas Ma ke s unde New Leade ship,” Oil Daily, Janua y 5,
2007.
130
i s b anch o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline was commissioned
and he Niyazo –Hu ag eemen was ul illed.469
The mos impo an pa s o he ag eemen we e a icles 2, 4, and 11.
A icle 2 s a ed ha China would pu chase 30 bcm o Tu kmenis an’s
na u al gas annually a he bo de wi h Tu kmenis an o o e 30 yea s.
I was o s a om he da e he pipeline was commissioned, which
occu ed in 2009. A he ime, Tu kmenis an was s ill e y in en on
p ese ing i s adi ional policy o selling i s na u al gas a i s bo de s.
A icle 4 s a ed ha Tu kmenis an’s p ice o na u al gas o China
would be se a easonable, ai le els, based on compa able in e na ion-
al ma ke p ices. Mo eo e , he paymen was o be made in US dolla s.
Finally, A icle 11 speci ied ha he esponsibili y o implemen ing he
ag eemen would lie wi h he Minis y o he Oil and Gas Indus y and
Mine al Resou ces o Tu kmenis an and he S a e De elopmen and Re-
o m Commission o he PRC. Any u u e nego ia ions would be handled
by he Minis y o he Oil and Gas Indus y and Mine al Resou ces o
Tu kmenis an and he CNPC o China.470
I could easonably ha e been p edic ed ha his ag eemen wi h
China would ha e no mo e han he same p eca ious alue as he 2003
ag eemen wi h Russia. Howe e , in his case he key was ha Moscow’s
and Gazp om’s epu a ion wi h he Tu kmenis an eli e was as bad as pos-
sible, while China and he CNPC seemed mo e eliable o hem. In o he
wo ds, he key was no in he ag eemen s, which we e jus an o e all
amewo k, bu in he secu i iza ion o Tu kmenis an’s ene gy supplies.
A ha ime, Ashgaba ’s eli e conside ed Russia o be an un eliable and
pe haps e en dange ous ade pa ne , while China’s image was ha o
a eliable and us wo hy pa ne willing o pay a ai p ice and no
in e e e in Tu kmenis an’s in e nal a ai s.
Since he beginning o he close coope a ion be ween China and
Tu kmenis an, i was clea ha Beijing was no looking solely o p o i
bu also o he s abiliza ion o he Cen al Asian ESC, China’s wes e n
p o inces, and China’s ene gy secu i y as well. China’s policy expe s
assumed ha impo ing ene gy esou ces om Cen al Asia would lessen
China’s “Malacca dilemma” – i s ulne abili y o a na al blockade. The
Malacca dilemma is a e m coined by he hen-P esiden Hu Jin ao o
desc ibe China’s dependence on he Malacca S ai s be ween Singapo e
469 Fo mo e on he ene gy geopoli ics o Tu kmenis an see: Sla omí Ho ák, “Tu kmenis an’s
Shi ing Ene gy Geopoli ics in 2009–2011,” P oblems o Pos -Communism, 59, no. 2 (2012):
18–30.
470 “Tex o Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline Deal,” Nei alnyi Tu kmenis an, Ap il 4, 2006.
131
and Indonesia, whe e some 80% o China’s ene gy impo s passed en
ou e om he Middle Eas , Angola, and elsewhe e. The Malacca dilem-
ma could be sol ed by he “Go Wes ” s a egy o impo ing gas om
Cen al Asia, which is he mos accessible land a ea open o he sp ead
o Beijing’s in luence beyond i s bo de s.471
China’s s a egy was e iden in i s in e ac ions wi h Tu kmenis an
om 2006 onwa d. Sho ly a e signing he 2006 ag eemen wi h China,
Niyazo o de ed his Depu y Minis e o Oil and Gas Indus y, Isanguly
Nu yýew, o s a p epa a o y wo k on he pipeline p ojec .472 Zhang Ji-
anhua, a high- anking ep esen a i e o he CNPC, a i ed in Ashgaba
a he head o a Chinese delega ion in June 2006 o u he discuss he
ecen ly signed ag eemen s and p epa e o he implemen a ion o he
pipeline p ojec .473 A he beginning o 2008, Tu kmenis an o icially
announced ha i had ea ma ked 1300 bcm o na u al gas o i s new
pipeline o China.474 Mo eo e , Nu ýyew led a Tu kmen delega ion o
China o discuss he explo a ion and de elopmen o gas deposi s in
eas e n Tu kmenis an in he May o 2008.475 The busy diploma ic a ic
be ween China and Tu kmenis an signaled ha bo h pa ies we e gen-
uinely in e es ed in making he p ojec a eali y. The only signi ican
delay was caused by o ce majeu e: he dea h o he pipeline’s mos ocal
p oponen , Sapa mu a Niyazo .
A e Niyazo ’s dea h, Gu banguly Be dimuhamedow ascended o
he p esidency as his successo . As pa o his p esiden ial elec ion p o-
g am in Janua y 2007, he pledged o con inue he expo di e si ica ion
policies o he la e p esiden : “The G ea Leade Niyazo se goals con-
nec ed wi h new Tu kmen gas expo s and ways in o he wo ld ma ke s.
To achie e hose aims, he wo k on de eloping and b oadening he
amewo ks o mu ually bene icial coope a ion wi h o eign pa ne s
in he oil and gas sec o will con inue.”476 He s a ed a he ime ha
471 Hongyi Lai, “China’s Wes e n De elopmen P og am: I s Ra ionale, Implemen a ion, and
P ospec s,” Mode n China 28, no. 4 (2002): 432–466.
472 “Tu kmen P esiden Wa ns Top O icials O e Poo Managemen ,” Tu kmen TV Fi s Chan-
nel, Ap il 14, 2006.
473 “Chinese Delega ion o Examine Gas Expo s Po en ial o Tu kmenis an,” Tu kmen TV Fi s
Channel, June 14, 2006.
474 “Tu kmenis an De ails Gas Resou ces Ea ma ked o China Pipeline,” ITAR-TASS, Janua y 16,
2008.
475 “Tu kmen Expe s o Visi China Sho ly o Gas Talks,” Tu kmen Fo eign Minis y, P ess
Release, May 26, 2006.
476 “F esh S a : Tu kmenis an o Boos Ene gy Ties wi h Fo eign Pa ne s,” NEFTE Compass,
Janua y 10, 2007.
132
he mos p omising p ojec s we e he TCGP and he TAPI Gas Pipe-
line.
On he o he hand, as he elec ion was being held in Feb ua y 2007,
Be dimuhamedow also a emp ed o assu e Russia ha Tu kmenis an
would con inue o ul ill i s oil and gas obliga ions. Howe e , Russia
launched a campaign o disc edi he TCGP.477 Tu kmenis an was hen
expo ing 42 bcm pe yea o Russia ia he Cen al Asia–Cen e Gas
Pipeline Sys em. I also had a gas con ac wi h I an. Howe e , only hal
o he 12 bcm annual capaci y o he pipeline o I an was being used
because o he wo pa ies’ ailu e o ag ee on a p ice highe han USD
42 pe housand cubic me e s. The p ice o gas expo ed o Russia a
ha ime was USD 100 pe housand cubic me e s.478 I did no emain
so o long because o he looming global inancial c isis.
A his poin , a c i ically impo an ac mus be emphasized: Tu k-
menis an and China do no sha e a common bo de . This necessi a ed
coope a ion wi h o he Cen al Asian s a es willing o pa icipa e in he
TCGP p ojec . China was able o b ing bo h Uzbekis an and Kazakhs an
o he nego ia ing able quickly because o an i esis ible o e o in es -
men s, ansi ees, and he oppo uni y o expo hei own na u al gas
o China.479 Russia was no able o espond o his package deal because
o i s un o una e economic si ua ion a ha ime. As o he Wes , i was
unable o o e such a package o b oad-based coope a ion because o
he Wes e n coun ies’ di e en p ope y and ma ke s uc u es. Cen al
Asians jus needed money o keep hei ene gy indus ies unning, and
a he ime China was he only s a e ha was willing o p o ide such an
a ay o inancing and ade.
China’s gene ous loan o e s we e pa o i s global “loans- o -oil”
s a egy. I s wo s a e- un banks, he China De elopmen Bank and he
China Expo -Impo Bank, issue specially ailo ed loans o de eloping
coun ies in need o cash. In e u n, China ob ains long- e m p omises
o supply oil and gas a s able p ices. China had ea lie p o ided simila
loans no only o Cen al Asian s a es bu also o Venezuela, Angola,
and Russia. In Tu kmenis an, he China De elopmen Bank p o ided
Tu kmengaz wi h loans in 2010 amoun ing o USD 8.1 billion o he
de elopmen o he Sou h Yolo an gas ield. Tu kmengaz is epaying
477 “Tu kmenis an Reassu es Russia,” Oil Daily, Feb ua y 14, 2007.
478 “Tu kmenis an Seen Cul i a ing Gas Ma ke s Unde New Leade ship,” Oil Daily, Janua y 5,
2007.
479 Sebas ien Pey ouse, “Discussing China: Sinophilia and Sinophobia in Cen al Asia,” Jou nal
o Eu asian S udies 7, no. 1 (2015): 429–445.
133
hese loans wi h supplies o na u al gas o China. Ashgaba sough a
loan almos immedia ely a e he explosion on he Cen al Asia–Cen e
Gas Pipeline Sys em in la e 2009.480 In he same manne , he Chinese
Expo -Impo Bank p o ided a USD 5 billion loan o Kazakhs an’s
go e nmen and he CNPC len ano he USD 5 billion o Kazakh-
s an’s oil and gas p oduce KazMunayGaz.481 In his way, China is gain-
ing con ol o e he ene gy esou ces in Cen al Asia, and along wi h
ha , he secu i y o i s ene gy supplies. This is especially impo an
because o he s eeply ising consump ion and impo s o na u al gas in
China, as illus a ed in Table 18.
Table 18: China’s na u al gas consump ion, p oduc ion, and impo ,
2007–2018 (bcm)
Yea Consump ion P oduc ion Impo
2007 70 69 3.9
2008 81 80 4.5
2009 89 85 7.5
2010 107 95 17.0
2011 131 101 31.4
2012 147 108 42.4
2013 168 118 53.0
2014 184 127 59.5
2015 192 132 61.6
2016 209 118 72.8
2017 240 128 92.0
2018 283 138 123.4
Sou ce: The China Na ional Pe oleum Co po a ion
Coope a ion wi h Uzbekis an and Kazakhs an p o ed o be smoo h
and as . Kazakhs an’s P ime Minis e Ka im Masimo o ganized a wo k-
ing isi o Tu kmenis an in May 2007, whe e he discussed he pipeline’s
480 Cha les J. Sulli an, “Pipeline Poli ics in he Pos -So ie Space: A View om Ashgaba ,” The
Jou nal o Ene gy and De elopmen 34, no. 21 (2011): 121–128.
481 Dennis Shea, “The De elopmen o Ene gy Resou ces in Cen al Asia,” Tes imony be o e he House
Fo eign A ai s Subcommi ee on Eu ope, Eu asia and Eme ging Th ea s, 113 h Cong ess 160,
May 21, 2014.

134
speci ic ou e on Kazakhs an’s e i o y.482 Uzbekis an’s Fo eign Minis e
Vladimi No o isi ed Ashgaba on July 26, 2007. No o announced
Uzbekis an’s ull suppo o he TCGP p ojec and he pa o i unning
h ough Uzbekis an’s e i o y.483
Be dimuhamedow me wi h bo h o his Cen al Asian pa ne s in
he TCGP in Ashgaba in 2007 – in May wi h Nu sul an Naza baye
and in Oc obe wi h Islam Ka imo .484 The s a s could no ha e lined
up any be e o China’s pipeline p oposal. Uzbekis an’s Ka imo was
a emp ing o dis ance his coun y om Russia’s in luence a e he had
been o ced in o close coope a ion wi h i by his bloody ep ession o a
e ol in he ci y o Andijan in May 2005. Kazakhs an’s Naza baye was
e y con en wi h coope a ion wi h China a e he commissioning o he
Kazakhs an–China Oil Pipeline and welcomed ano he oppo uni y o
s eng hen his bila e al ela ionship wi h Kazakhs an’s eas e n neighbo .
Tu kmenis an, howe e , became he mos ac i e and de o ed p opo-
nen o he gas pipeline p ojec as soon as i had assessed ha u he
coope a ion p ospec s wi h Russia we e u ile. Be dimuhamedow un-
de ook a s a e isi o China on July 17–18, 2007. He subsequen ly
called he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline “ he u mos p io i y” in
he bila e al ela ionship.485 La e on, in Augus , he signed a dec ee en-
do sing he appoin men o he membe s o he boa d esponsible o
implemen ing he bila e al ag eemen o he cons uc ion o he gas
pipeline. The boa d was asked wi h d a ing an ac ion plan by Sep em-
be 1, 2007, ha would ensu e ha gas expo s o China would s a in
2009 as ag eed in 2006.486
Be dimuhamedow also had o p epa e his domes ic audience o he
swi ch in ading pa ne s. He unde ook a wo king isi o he Lebap
egion in eas e n Tu kmenis an on Augus 29, 2007. Tha was whe e
he announced a comp ehensi e de elopmen p og am o he igh
side o he Amu Da ya Ri e . Abo e all, he ook pa in a ce emony
launching he cons uc ion o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline
482 “Kazakhs an Ready o Assis in Cons uc ion o Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline,” In e ax,
May 4, 2007.
483 “Uzbekis an Backs Tu kmen-Chinese Gas Pipeline P ojec ,” Tu kmen TV Al yn Asy , July 26,
2007.
484 “Tu kmen Leade Mee s Uzbek Minis e o Discuss Coope a ion,” Tu kmen TV Al yn Asy ,
Decembe 11, 2007.
485 “Tu kmenis an Se To Speed Up Implemen a ion O Gas Expo Plans To China,” Tu kmen
TV Al yn Asy , July 26, 2007.
486 “Be dimuhamedow Endo ses Boa d To Handle Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline Cons uc-
ion P ojec ,” In e ax, Augus 4, 2007.
135
in Bag yya lyk. On ha occasion Be dimuhamedow solemnly p o ided
he P esiden o he CNPC, Jiang Jiemin, wi h he ope a ing license o
explo e and ex ac na u al gas in he a ea and wi h o he documen s
needed o implemen he p ojec . The Tu kmen leade s essed ha i
was he i s ime ha his coun y had e e p o ided such a license o a
o eign company.487
The Bag yya lyk a ea, which includes he Samandepe ield o sul u
dioxide gas, became a con ac ed a ea o de elopmen unde a p oduc-
ion sha ing ag eemen . This PSA iola ed he Niyazo -e a policy o
esou ce na ionalism ha allowed signing o majo PSAs only o echno-
logically challenging o sho e p ojec s.488 Howe e , he Bag yya lyk PSA
was he p ice ha Tu kmenis an had o pay o China’s in ol emen in
he gas pipeline p ojec . Be dimuhamedow did no o ge o s ess du ing
he launch ce emony ha he se en- housand-kilome e -long pipeline
would no only bene i China and Tu kmenis an bu also Uzbekis an
and Kazakhs an.489 This was e y impo an because hose wo s a es
would no be able o implemen a join p ojec o his scale wi hou
China’s impe us.
Fo i s pa , Russia was no willing o le Cen al Asia go wi hou a
s uggle. I ied o coun e bo h China’s and he Wes ’s ini ia i es in he
Cen al Asian egion. Russia wan ed o impo as much na u al gas as
possible om Cen al Asia and in ha way o d ain any u u e supply
o di e si ica ion o he expo ou es ou o he egion. This was behind
he May 2007 ag eemen o cons uc he Caspian Coas al Gas Pipeline
be ween Russia, Tu kmenis an, and Kazakhs an.490 Howe e , a e he
inaugu a ion o he TCGP in Tu kmenis an, Russia’s media openly
specula ed ha he Caspian Coas al Gas Pipeline p ojec was doomed o
ail. The p esiden s o Russia, Tu kmenis an, and Kazakhs an se Sep em-
be 1, 2007, as he deadline o he signa u e o he necessa y documen s
and he conclusion o he ila e al ag eemen o he cons uc ion o he
pipeline. As i u ned ou , he documen s we e no eady in ime, and
he pipeline was ac ually ne e buil .
487 Ibid.
488 Michael F edholm, “The Wo ld o Cen al Asian Oil and Gas,” Asian Cul u es and Mode ni y,
no. 16 (2008): 89–97.
489 “Tu kmen P esiden Kicks O China-Bound Gas Pipeline Cons uc ion,” Tu kmen TV Al yn
Asy , Augus 29, 2007.
490 S ua Ellio , “Tu kmenis an, China Ag ee o Speed Up Gas Pipeline,” Pla ’s Oilg am News,
July 19, 2007.
136
Russia’s policy in Cen al Asia also called o he c ea ion o an
“OPEC o gas” wi h I an. Russia was in e es ed in a g and ba gain ha
would di ec I an’s expo s o he Eas and lea e Russia in con ol o he
Eu opean ma ke s. I e en conside ed allowing I an o use he Tu kmen-
is an–China Gas Pipeline o expo I an’s gas o China.491 S e en Ma in,
who was appoin ed by he US S a e Depa men o he newly es ablished
posi ion o coo dina o o he Uni ed S a es’ Eu asian ene gy diplomacy
a he beginning o 2008, welcomed bo h he Kazakhs an–China Oil
Pipeline and he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline p ojec s because
hey would loosen Russia’s g ip on he economies o he Cen al Asian
coun ies. On he o he hand, he kep s essing ha he p io i y o he
Uni ed S a es was he T ans-Caspian Gas Pipeline.492 The esul was ha
Russia was unable o p e en China’s “ma ch o he wes ,” and he Uni -
ed S a es conside ed his de elopmen o be a lesse e il han Russia’s
hegemony o e he egion. These a i udes pa ed he way o China’s
economic expansion in o he Cen al Asian ESC.493
Lines A and B o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline
The implemen a ion phase o he TCGP p ojec ollowed wi hou p ob-
lems a e he poli ical and echnical consul a ions held on Feb ua y 22,
2008.494 P esiden Be dimuhamedow au ho ized Tu kmengaz o con-
clude a con ac wi h he Russian join -s ock company S oy ansgaz o
a u nkey cons uc ion o Tu kmenis an’s po ion o he i s wo lines o
he gas pipeline – he Malay–Bag yya lyk Gas Pipeline wi h a leng h o
188 kilome e s. S oy ansgaz was con ac ed o cons uc he pipeline’s
gas ea men and dehyd a ing acili ies and he gas me e ing uni s. To al
cons uc ion cos s we e p ojec ed o be EUR 395 million.495 Tu kmen-
is an’s po ion o he pipeline commences in he a ea o he Malay gas
ield and con inues o a gas me e ing uni in he a ea o he Bag yýa lyk
se lemen on he bo de wi h Uzbekis an.496 The swi cons uc ion o
491 Vladimi Radyiuhin, “Russia-I an Ties on he Upswing,” The Hindu, Janua y 7, 2008.
492 “Caspian: US S eps Up Diplomacy,” Ene gy Compass, Feb ua y 14, 2008.
493 Fo la ge in as uc u e p ojec s see: Benjamin So acool, The Go e nance o Ene gy Megap ojec s:
Poli ics, Hub is and Ene gy Secu i y (London: Edwa d Elga Pub, 2013).
494 “Cons uc ion o Gas Pipeline Be ween Tu kmenis an, China En e s Ac i e S age,” In e ax,
Feb ua y 19, 2008.
495 “Russian Company o Lay 395-Eu o Tu kmen-China Pipeline,” Nei alnyi Tu kmenis an, Feb u-
a y 22, 2008.
496 “Malay-Bag yya lyk Gas Pipeline,” S oy ansgaz, www.s oy ansgaz. u/en/p ojec s/oilgas
_enginee ing/2612/?sph ase_id=33675.
137
he pipeline on Tu kmenis an’s e i o y showed ha i was he pa y ha
was he mos eage o comple e he pipeline p ojec .
As s a ed ea lie , he suppo and consen o he ansi s a es, Uz-
bekis an and Kazakhs an, was c i ical o he success o he TCGP.
Building he TCGP was a mo e signi ican challenge o China han
he Kazakhs an–China Oil Pipeline, which did no ha e o c oss a hi d
coun y. Uzbekis an and China signed an in e go e nmen al ag eemen
o he cons uc ion o Uzbekis an’s po ion o he pipeline in Ap il 2007.
On July 1, 2008, he cons uc ion began nea he illage o Saye in he
Dzhonodzho dis ic o Uzbekis an’s Bukha a egion. Asia T ans Gas, a
join en u e o Uzbekne egaz and he CNPC, has ope a ed he p ojec
o Uzbekis an since ha ime.
In Uzbekis an, he p ojec in ol ed he cons uc ion o wo b anches
o he main pipeline and cos USD 2 billion. The pipeline passes h ough
h ee o Uzbekis an’s p o inces: Bukha a, Na oi, and Kashkada ya.
The China Pe oleum Pipeline Bu eau, China Pe oleum Enginee ing
Cons uc ion Co po a ion, and he Swiss company Ze omax GmbH
buil Uzbekis an’s po ion o i . China’s en e p ises buil he sec ion
om Gazli o Kazakhs an and Ze omax buil he sec ion om he Tu k-
menis an bo de o Gazli.497 The e we e no plans o expo Uzbekis an’s
gas h ough he pipeline in 2008.498 Howe e , in May 2009, he Depu y
Head o Uzbekne egaz, Sha ka Mazhi o , announced ha con a y o
p e ious in en ions, 10 bcm o Uzbek gas pe yea would also be shipped
h ough he TCGP o China.499 The decision o include Uzbekis an as a
supplie has had pa amoun impo ance o China’s ene gy secu i y be-
cause China educed i s dependence on Tu kmenis an’s impo s h ough
he pipeline.
Kazakhs an’s Mazhilis (i s lowe house o pa liamen ) app o ed a
law a i ying he cons uc ion and ope a ion o he TCGP on No em-
be 25, 2009. Howe e , many legisla o s oiced conce ns abou China
gaining u he in luence o e he coun y’s hyd oca bon sec o . A ha
ime, China con olled app oxima ely 30 pe cen o Kazakhs an’s oil
indus y.500 The legisla o s’ conce ns we e also linked o he ac ha he
CNPC had acqui ed 50 pe cen o he Kazakh oil company Mangis au-
MunaiGas in Ap il 2009 and he China In es men Co po a ion had
497 “Uzbekis an o Tes Uzbek Sec ion o he Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline,” T end News
Agency, Decembe 10, 2009.
498 “Uzbekis an-China Gas Pipeline Cons uc ion Ge s Unde way,” In e ax, July 1, 2008.
499 “Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline o Ship Uzbek Gas,” In e ax, May 14, 2009.
500 “New China Link Heigh ens Kazakh Conce ns,” NEFTE Compass, No embe 25, 2009.
144
o supply China. The second p ojec was he Uzbekis an–China Gas
Pipeline, which uns om gas ields in Uzbekis an o he main TCGP.
I has a capaci y o 25 bcm yea ly. The CNPC cons uc ed his pipeline
in collabo a ion wi h Uzbekne egaz.532 The Uzbekne egaz b anch is
mo e ocused on expo ing ene gy o China han he Hanan b anch.533
Line C, he hi d b anch o he TCGP, was inally commissioned
on May 31, 2014. I s o al leng h is 1,830 kilome e s and i s capaci y is
25 bcm pe yea . The CNPC claimed ha China would ecei e 10 bcm o
na u al gas om Tu kmenis an, 10 bcm om Uzbekis an and 5 bcm om
Kazakhs an h ough he new pipeline. Uzbekis an g adually inc eased
i s supplies o China om 6 bcm in 2013 o 10 bcm in 2015.534 The newly
buil pipeline s a s in Gedaim on he bo de be ween Tu kmenis an and
Uzbekis an and en e s China a Ho gos. F om he e, i con inues on as
he hi d Wes –Eas Gas Pipeline.535
The cons uc ion o Line C decisi ely u ned he ene gy ini ia i es in
he ESC o Cen al Asia o China’s ad an age. I shows ha China can
success ully nego ia e complex ene gy deals wi h i s Cen al Asian pa -
ne s and ha i can u n hem in o eali y in a sho pe iod o ime. This
abili y is some hing Russia has always been unable and unwilling o do.
China also skill ully used he economic c isis o 2009, which hi Russia’s
economy ha d and mo e impo an ly, dep essed Eu opean demand o
hyd oca bon impo s om he eas .
China c ea ed a sys em o dependence ha makes he Cen al Asian
hyd oca bon expo e s ied o China’s ma ke , and he eby s eng hened
i s own ene gy secu i y. The ac ha his p ocess was accompanied by
a gene ous “loans o oil” policy on China’s side had wo consequences.
Fi s , he hyd oca bon in as uc u e was mainly cons uc ed wi h Chi-
na’s inancial esou ces and hus con i med Beijing’s indi ec con ol o
he egion’s ene gy esou ces. Con ol o ma e ial esou ces is he essence
o he ealis pa adigm, and o China’s ene gy s a egy as well. Second,
by p o iding he loans, China s eng hened he dependence o Cen al
Asian ESC on i s la gesse. The Cen al Asian s a e ac o s a e now depen-
den on China no only as a monopsonis consume o hei hyd oca bon
532 “Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline Capaci y 55 BCM Pe Yea by 2015,” In e ax, Augus 31,
2011.
533 “T ans-Asia Gas Begins Welding Spu o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” In e ax, Sep em-
be 8, 2011.
534 “Thi d B anch o Cen al Asia-Cen e Gas Pipeline,” 12news.uz, June 2, 2014.
535 “Line C o he Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline Becomes Ope a ional,” CNPC, June 3, 2014,
www.cnpc.com.cn/en/n 2014/201406/16 4 5d0b0414501a e67 edab39286a.sh ml.

145
expo s, bu also as a c i ical inancial lende . The si ua ion may soon
u n in o poli ical dependence as well.
The ou e p oposed o Line D o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipe-
line, om Tu kmenis an h ough Tajikis an and Ky gyzs an o China,
alida es he idea ha he TCGP has signi ican geos a egic impo ance
o China. I Line D is commissioned, all he Cen al Asian s a es’ eco-
nomic in e es s will be ied up wi h hose o China. Beijing would u he
cemen i s ising powe o e he ESC o Cen al Asia. The commissioning
o Line D would ep esen he poin whe e China would push Russia ou
o he egion and assume o al hegemony, which would be o an econom-
ic cha ac e a i s bu would soon mo e in o he poli ical sphe e as well.
China’s Na ional De elopmen and Re o m Commission app o ed
a p e- easibili y s udy o he ou h b anch in June 2013.536 I planned
o comple e he cons uc ion o Lines A, B, C and D by he end o he
Fi e-Yea Plan pe iod o 2016–2020, bu ha was no he case wi h Line
D.537 The US-suppo ed Cen al Asia-Sou h Asia (CASA)-1000 p ojec o
ansmission o elec ical powe can be conside ed a p edecesso o he
cons uc ion o Line D. The idea o his p ojec eme ged in 2005. The
p incipal goal was o supply Ky gyzs an’s and Tajikis an’s hyd oelec ic
powe o A ghanis an and Pakis an.538 The US wan ed o s abilize he
egion by suppo ing a mu ually bene icial economic p ojec ha would
c ea e posi i e egional pa ne ships.
Plans o Line D had al eady appea ed be o e Line A was commis-
sioned in 2009. Ky gyzs an’s P esiden Ku manbek Bakiye a emp ed
o include his coun y in he TCGP p ojec du ing a mee ing wi h Hu
Jin ao on Augus 15, 2007. He p oposed ha pa o he pipeline should
a e se Ky gyzs an’s e i o y.539 Ky gyzs an’s o icials s a ed o p omo e
he possibili y o building one o he b anches o he TCGP h ough
hei e i o y in 2009. Acco ding o he Ky gyz, building ano he b anch
o he pipeline om Tu kmenis an h ough Uzbekis an and Ky gyz-
s an o China would acili a e and imp o e bila e al ela ions be ween
536 “China And Tajikis an Plan Cons uc ion o Fou h Link o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline
Du ing Yea ,” Albawaba, Ma ch 11, 2014.
537 “CNPC T ans-Asia Gas Pipeline Company Limi ed Signs Ag eemen wi h Tajik ansgaz on
Es ablishing a Gas Pipeline Company,” Albawaba, Ma ch 11, 2014.
538 “A ghan Woes Risk Regional Ene gy Plan,” Ox o d Resea ch Daily B ie Se ice, Oc obe 19,
2015.
539 “Ky gyzs an Wan s China o Use I s Te i o y as T ansi Poin o Tu kmen Gas,” In e ax,
Augus 15, 2007.
146
Ky gyzs an and Uzbekis an, which we e no ideal because o bo de
ensions and occasional e hnic clashes.540
China’s nex p esiden , Xi Jinping, unde ook a s a e isi o Ky gyz-
s an on Sep embe 11, 2013. On ha occasion, Ky gyzs an’s Minis e o
he Ene gy Indus y, Osmonbek A ykbae , and he Chai man o China’s
S a e Commi ee o De elopmen and Re o ms, Xiu Shaoshi, signed a
loan ag eemen o und coope a ion in he cons uc ion and ope a ion
o he Ky gyzs an–China Gas Pipeline.541 The po ion o Line D o he
Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline on he e i o y o Ky gyzs an would
un 220 kilome e s h ough he egions o Chon Alay and Alay and hen
con inue on o Kashga in China.
Ky gyzs an announced ha China’s in es men in building he pipe-
line would be e y bene icial o Ky gyzs an. Howe e , no o ake o gas
is being planned o Ky gyzs an.542 On Decembe 16, 2015, Ky gyzs an
and China signed an ag eemen o he cons uc ion o Ky gyzs an’s
sec ion o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline Line D. China’s P ime
Minis e Li Keqiang and his Ky gyz coun e pa Temi Sa iye we e bo h
p esen . Ky gyzs an’s sec ion will be 215 kilome e s long wi h an annual
capaci y o 30 bcm.543
The cons uc ion o Line D o he TCGP was no only suppo ed by
Ky gyzs an bu also by he o he ansi coun y, Tajikis an. The CNPC’s
subsidia y T ans-Asia Gas Pipeline Company signed an ag eemen wi h
Tajik ansgas544 o he c ea ion o a join en u e ha would manage
cons uc ion and main enance o Line D.545 Tajikis an would only be
a ansi s a e in his p ojec and would be p ohibi ed om impo ing
Tu kmenis an’s na u al gas o i s own use.546 China’s go e nmen signed
in e go e nmen al ag eemen s o his cons uc ion wi h i s coun e pa s
540 “Cons uc ion o Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline Via Ky gyzs an o B ing Tashken and
Bishkek Toge he ,” T ibune Business News, May 4, 2012.
541 “Ky gyzs an, China Sign Ag eemen on Cons uc ion o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline
Th ough Ky gyzs an,” AKI P ess News Agency, Sep embe 11, 2013.
542 “Ky gyzs an o Bene i om Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline P ojec ,” AKI P ess News Agen-
cy, Sep embe 11, 2011.
543 “The Ky gyz Go e nmen and CNPC Subsidia y Sign Ag eemen o Build he Ky gyzs an
Sec ion o Line D o he Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” Albawaba, Decembe 19, 2015.
544 The Go e nmen o Tajikis an c ea ed he Tajik ansgas join -s ock company in 2009. I is
p ima ily esponsible o he gas supply in Tajikis an. The go e nmen con ols one hund ed
pe cen o i s sha es.
545 “China And Tajikis an Plan Cons uc ion.”
546 “OAO Tadzhik ansgaz,” In o ma sionno-pozna a elnyi po al o Tadzhikis ane, www. a-
jik-ga eway.o g/wp/?page_id=26489.
147
in Uzbekis an, Tajikis an, and Ky gyzs an du ing Xi Jinping’s s a e isi s
o Cen al Asia’s capi als in Sep embe 2013.547
The ce emony ma king he s a o he cons uc ion o Line D in Ta-
jikis an ook place in he Rudaki dis ic nea Dushanbe on Sep embe
15, 2014. A he e en , he P esiden o Tajikis an, Emomali Rakhmon,
said: “We a e wi nessing an e en o eno mous poli ical, economic,
his o ical impo ance – he ce emony o he s a o he cons uc ion o
he Tajik sec ion o he Cen al Asia–China T ans-Asia Gas Pipeline.”548
Line D will be he sho es o he ou lines o he pipeline sys em om
Cen al Asia o China. I is app oxima ely 1,000 kilome e s sho e han
i s p edecesso s. The cons uc ion in Tajikis an was planned o con inue
o h ee yea s. The pipeline will a el unde wa e in 24 places, and
76 unnels will ha e o be ca ed ou du ing i s cons uc ion. The cos
o Tajikis an’s po ion o he p ojec will be USD 3.2 billion acco ding
o 2014 es ima es.549 Mo eo e , Tajikis an’s gas ese es may soon be he
ul ima e p ize. The e a e some es ima es ha i possesses 1.14 cm o na -
u al gas ese es which would gi e Tajikis an he second-la ges ese es
o na u al gas in Cen al Asia. The CNPC s a ed o explo e Tajikis an’s
oil and gas deposi s in 2013.
The CNPC and Uzbekne egaz ag eed o gi e p io i y o he con-
s uc ion o Line D in 2014 along wi h he cons uc ion o a na u al
gas-consuming chemical plan . The CNPC s a ed ha when ully unc-
ioning, he ou lines o he TCGP oge he would anspo 85 bcm o
na u al gas pe yea o China.550 Uzbekis an’s po ion o Line D would be
app oxima ely 200 kilome e s long and would connec exis ing pipeline
in as uc u e in Uzbekis an wi h Tajikis an. I s cos was es ima ed a
USD 800 million.551 I s cons uc ion would be he second mos expensi e
oil and gas p ojec in Uzbekis an a e Lukoil’s USD 2.6 billion na u al
gas p ocessing plan a he Kadym gas ield nea Bukha a.552 The e is
547 “CNPC Subsidia y Sign Ag eemen wi h Tajik ansgaz o Cons uc ion o D B anch o Cen-
al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” AKI P ess News Agency, Ma ch 11, 2014.
548 “P esiden s o China, Tajikis an Inaugu a e S a o Cons uc ion o Tajik Sec ion o Cen al
Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” AKI P ess News Agency, Sep embe 15, 2014.
549 Ibid.
550 “Tashken -Beijing Alliance Will S eng hen,” Ox o d Resea ch Daily B ie Se ice, Sep embe
24, 2014.
551 Demi Azizo , “Da e o Cons uc ion o Uzbek Sec ion o Gas Pipeline o China Announced,”
T end.az, Feb ua y 12, 2015.
552 “Uzbekis an Economy: S a e Ene gy Companies Plan In as uc u e,” EIU Viewswi e,
Ap il 10, 2015.
148
also an op ion o ca y Line D h ough A ghanis an, bu i has no ma-
e ialized ye .553
In 2015, Uzbekis an pos poned he cons uc ion o Line D on i s
e i o y o 2019. The eason o he pos ponemen was o a echnical
na u e, acco ding o Uzbekis an’s o icials.554 Mo eo e , Ky gyzs an also
suspended he cons uc ion o Line D on i s e i o y in May 2016,555 bu
i says ha as soon as China cla i ies he cos s o he p ojec , wo k can
con inue.556 The cons uc ion o some segmen s o Line D s a ed in 2014.
O he pa s o i we e s ill unde cons uc ion as o 2022.
Unde he ag eemen be ween he CNPC and Tu kmengaz, Tu k-
menis an is obliged o send 65 bcm annually o China by la e 2021.557
Howe e , his obliga ion may be a ec ed by a dec ease in China’s de-
mand o na u al gas due o an economic slowdown and o he ac o s.
The inc ease in China’s demand a e aged 16 pe cen be ween 2010 and
2013. Howe e , i declined o 6 pe cen in 2014. This de elopmen was
caused by high ci y-ga e p ices cha ged o he gas dis ibu o s in China
and by en i onmen al policies ocused on cu ing emissions om coal-
i ed powe s a ions a he han p omo ing a swi ch o na u al gas as an
al e na i e uel.
Ano he c i ical ac o is p ice compe i ion wi h LNG sold o China
on spo and long- e m con ac s. The p ice o Cen al Asian gas is in-
dexed o oil and includes high ixed anspo a ion a i s o and ac oss
China.558 This no wi hs anding, i s ill seems a p esen ha he cons uc-
ion o he TCGP is o s a egic impo ance o China and i is no being
cons uc ed solely o i s abili y o c ea e p o i s. I China’s demand o
na u al gas al e s, i would signi ican ly al e China’s policy owa ds
Tu kmenis an and especially i s posi ion on he cons uc ion o Line D.
The plans o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas Pipeline and i s imple-
men a ion ha e been decisi e in shaping Tu kmenis an’s na u al gas
in as uc u e since 2006. The head o Tu kmengaz, Ashi guli Begliye ,
s a ed a he annual Oil and Gas o Tu kmenis an Con e ence in 2015
553 “China Seeking o Build Gas Pipeline om Tu kmenis an o China Th ough Tajikis an and
A ghanis an,” Bakh a News Agency, July 7, 2012.
554 “Uzbekis an Pos pones Cons uc ion o Fou h B anch o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,”
T end News Agency, Decembe 23, 2015.
555 “Cons uc ion O Ky gyzs an-China Gas Pipeline Pos poned o Inde ini e Pe iod,” Ky gyz-
s an News Agency, May 25, 2016.
556 Casey Michel, “Line D o he Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline Delayed,” Diploma , June 1,
2016, h ps:// hediploma .com/2016/05/line-d-o - he-cen al-asia-china-gas-pipeline-delayed/.
557 “Tu kmenis an Inc eases Gas Expo o China,” T end News Agency, May 8, 2015.
558 “The New Reali y o Cen al Asian Gas,” Pe oleum Economis , June 20, 2015.
149
ha Tu kmenis an would be able o p oduce 230 bcm pe yea by 2030
and expo 180 bcm. He announced ha wo k on he second and hi d
s age o he Galkynysh gas ield was unde way and when inished, i
would p oduce 93 bcm annually. Acco ding o Begliye , Tu kmengaz is
de eloping mo e han 30 o he gas ields h oughou he coun y. Tu k-
menis an’s p oduc ion o na u al gas eached 66.8 bcm in 2016, o which
40.9 bcm was expo ed.
Mo eo e , Begliye is no only planning he expo o na u al gas
bu also a cons uc ion o se e al gas-consuming chemical plan s wi h
a o al alue o USD 30 billion. These p ojec s include he p oduc ion
o syn he ic liquid uels, glycols, polyme s, me hanol, caus ic soda,
sodium sul a e, ammonium sul a e, iodine, u ea- o maldehyde, and
melamine- o maldehyde esins.559 Abo e all else, Ashgaba con inuously
emphasizes i s in en ion o di e si y i s ene gy expo s, as i s o icials
did a he Oil and Gas o Tu kmenis an Con e ence ha ook place in
2013 in Dubai.560
To ha e mo e oom o maneu e ing, Tu kmenis an s a ed he con-
s uc ion o he Eas –Wes In e connec o on May 31, 2010. The pipeline
was commissioned on Decembe 29, 2015 and uns om he Ma y p o -
ince in he eas o Tu kmenis an o he Balkan p o ince in he wes .561
The pipeline’s leng h is 773 kilome e s and i s capaci y is 30 bcm pe yea .
The cons uc ion cos s we e USD 2.5 billion.562 The p ima y pu pose o
he pipeline is s a egic, o b oaden Tu kmenis an’s choice o gas cus-
ome s. I can be used o suppo he coun y’s expo s o China om
i s o sho e deposi s in he Caspian Sea o o di e gas om i s eas e n
onsho e deposi s o he Wes .
The CNPC has been ac i e in Tu kmenis an since 2002.563 Based on
p elimina y ag eemen s be ween China and Tu kmenis an, he na u al
gas o he TCGP was o be supplied om he Samandepe and Al yn
Asy gas deposi s as well as om newly de eloped gas ields.564 The wo
deposi s men ioned abo e a e pa o he PSA o he de elopmen o
559 “Tu kmenis an Plans o Inc ease Gas Expo s,” T end News Agency, No embe 18, 2015.
560 “V Dubae p oshla Mezhduna odnaya kon e en siya Ne i gaz Tu kmenis ana – 2013,” Tu k-
menis an. u, Ma ch 15, 2013.
561 “Tu kmeniya nachala s oi gazop o od k Kaspiyu,” Tu kmenis an. u, May 31, 2010.
562 “Majo E en s in Caspian Coun ies’ Oil and Gas Indus y,” T end News Agency, Decembe
29, 2015.
563 “CNPC in Tu kmenis an,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/Tu kmenis an/coun y_index.sh ml.
564 “Gu banguly Be dymukhamedo i Khu Tszin ao mes e o k oyu gazop o od Tu kmenis an
– Ki ai,” Tukmenis an. u, Sep embe 23, 2009.

150
he Bag yya lyk-Amu Da ya Na u al Gas P ojec .565 This p ojec con-
sis s o wo blocks, A and B, and is he CNPC’s la ges gas coope a ion
p ojec ou side o China.566 The i s phase o he p ojec co e s an a ea
o 983 squa e kilome e s. The in eg a ed p ojec includes explo a ion o
new blocks, p ospec ing and explo a ion o new ields, eju ena ion and
adjus men o ma u e ields, and cons uc ion o a p ocessing plan and
i s suppo ing acili ies.567
The CNPC Amu Da ya Ri e Company is he explo a ion and p o-
duc ion ope a o and he p ocessing con ac o in he Bag yya lyk PSA
con ac a ea. I cons uc ed Gas P ocessing Plan s No. 1 and No. 2 in
Block A and Block B espec i ely.568 The Gas P ocessing Plan No. 1
became ope a ional on Decembe 14, 2009 and s a ed o supply na u-
al gas o China. The CNPC Amu Da ya began he cons uc ion o he
Gas P ocessing Plan No. 2 on he igh bank o he Amu Da ya i e in
Decembe 2011. I was commissioned on May 7, 2014.569 The ce emony
was a ended by P esiden Be dimuhamedow and ep esen a i es o he
CNPC, he con ac o in he Bag yya lyk a ea. The wo plan s ha e a
combined capaci y o an ou pu o 15 bcm pe yea .570 These success ul
p ojec s boos ed Tu kmenis an’s expo capabili ies and con i med Chi-
na’s dominan posi ion in he coun y’s ups eam oil and gas indus y.
Tu kmenis an and China hoped o inc ease gas expo s e en u he
by de eloping he sizeable Galkynysh gas ield. In Sep embe 2013,
hey celeb a ed he commissioning o he i s phase o ha ield in he
p esence o bo h o hei p esiden s. The p oduc ion capaci y o his
complex is 30 bcm annually.571 The CNPC launched he second phase
o de elopmen in he Galkynysh gas ield a he beginning o 2013. A
p esen , he Galkynysh gas ield and he nea by Yashla gas ield, a e
565 “Wo k Con inues on Schedule in Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline,” T end News Agency,
Janua y 7, 2009.
566 “China Recei es 330 Mln Cubic Me e s o Gas om Tu kmen Wells,” In e ax, Feb ua y 24,
2010.
567 “Amu Da ya Na u al Gas P ojec Phase I,” CNPC, www.cnpc.com.cn/en/P ojec /Amu_
Da ya_I.sh ml.
568 “No. 2 Gas P ocessing Plan o Amu Da ya P ojec Becomes Ope a ional,” CNPC, www.cnpc
.com.cn/en/No2GasP ocessingPlan o Amu Da yaP ojec /Fea u es.sh ml.
569 “Tu kmenis an Finds New Gas Field on Righ Bank o The Amu Da ya Ri e ,” In e ax, Ma ch
11, 2011.
570 “No. 2 Gas P ocessing Plan o Amu Da ya P ojec Becomes Ope a ional and he EPC
P ojec on he Galkynysh Gas Field S a s,” CNPC, May 5, 2014, www.cnpc.com.cn/en
/n 2014/201405/c491b93a6d3146ec94b5a2a26ab05dbc.sh ml.
571 “Gla y Tu kmenis ana i KNR p inyali uchas ie se emonii o k y iya pe oi oche edi gazo o-
go mes o ozhdeniya Galkynysh,” Tu kmenis an. u, Sep embe 5, 2013.
151
es ima ed o hold 26.2 cm o na u al gas. The second phase o he p oj-
ec is expec ed o be comple ed in 2021. I s p ocessing capaci y will be
a ound 30 bcm yea ly.572
Bo h he i s and second phases o he Galkynysh de elopmen
a e being paid o by loans om he China S a e Bank.573 In ha way,
China is seeking o gain a leas indi ec con ol o e his c i ical gas
deposi . Tu kmengaz signed se ice con ac s o he i s phase o he
de elopmen in he Galkynysh gas ield wo h a o al o USD 9.7 billion
in Decembe 2009. The con ac o s a e Gul Oil and Gas FZE, Pe o ac
In e na ional LLC, he NPC Chuanging D illing Enginee ing Compa-
ny, and a conso ium o LG In e na ional and Hyundai Enginee ing.574
Pe o ac p o ided enginee ing, p ocu emen , cons uc ion, and commis-
sioning se ices o he gas p ocessing plan and associa ed in as uc u e
a he Galkynysh gas ield be ween 2010 and 2013. I s p incipal pa ne in
ha USD 3.4 billion p ojec was Tu kmengaz. Galkynysh was Pe o ac’s
la ges p ojec up o ha da e.575 Tu kmengaz likely chose o employ less
expe ienced ope a o s om he Pe sian Gul because i did no wish o
gi e Wes e n o Russian ope a o s access o his s a egic asse .576
I should be no ed ha nei he China no Tu kmenis an was able o
p o ide all he necessa y equipmen o he cons uc ion o he TCGP
and o he gas in as uc u e. The me allic componen s we e usually
impo ed om he o me So ie Union. Be ween 2008 and 2009, he
Russian Uni ed Me allu gical Company deli e ed 260,000 me ic ons
o pipes wi h a diame e o 1,067 mm o Line A and Line B. I was also
asked wi h u nishing supplies o Line C. I deli e ed 125,000 ons o
1,218 mm pipe.577 An addi ional 200,000 ons o 1,218 mm pipe o he
Line C we e supplied by he Chelyabinsk Tube Rolling Plan in 2013.578
Uk aine’s Sumy F unze NPO has been p o iding p ocessing hea e s,
572 Masleniko , “Di e zi ika siya gazo ogo ekspo a Tu kmenis ana.”
573 “Will China Ge All Tu kmen Gas?” T end News Agency, Ap il 20, 2015, h ps://www
.aze news.az/analysis/80656.h ml.
574 “China Implemen s Se e al Majo P ojec s in Tu kmenis an,” T ibune Business News, Augus
1, 2012.
575 “Galkynysh Gas Field P ocessing Facili y, UAE,” Pe o ac, www.pe o ac.com/en-gb/ egions
/cis/p ojec s/galkynysh-gas- ield-p ocessing- acili y.
576 “CNPC and Tu kmengaz Ink an Ag eemen on Boos ing Na u al Gas Shipmen s o Chi-
na and a Gas Field EPC Con ac ,” CNPC, Sep embe 6, 2013, www.cnpc.com.cn/en
/n 2013/201309/1b81b6a8106947d4a1c55b6699a9d03d.sh ml.
577 “OMK o Supply La ge-Diame e Pipe o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” In e ax, Janu-
a y 30, 2013.
578 “ChelPipe o Supply 200.000 Tonnes o Pipe o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” In e ax,
Feb ua y 7, 2013.
152
la e ins alla ions, ai coole s, and o he equipmen o he Bag yya lyk
gas and oil complex in Tu kmenis an since 2013. I s p incipal pa ne
in Tu kmenis an is he Pe o Gas LLP Co po a ion om he Uni ed
Kingdom.579
The high echnology o he pipeline was supplied mos ly by Wes e n
en e p ises. Rolls-Royce p o ided he gas u bine-d i en pipeline com-
p esso s on all h ee lines o he TCGP.580 The Czech Republic’s Rime a
G oup supplied equipmen o he cons uc ion o comp esso s a ions
on he i s wo lines o he pipeline. I signed a con ac wi h he China
Pe oleum Enginee ing and Cons uc ion Co po a ion, a subsidia y o
he CNPC.581 Honeywell supplied i s Expe ion P ocess Knowledge Sys-
em and Sa e y Manage echnology o all h ee lines o he TCGP.582 The
in ol emen o hese Wes e n companies shows ha nei he China no
Tu kmenis an is in a posi ion o implemen such massi e in as uc u e
p ojec s wi hou a leas some echnical coope a ion wi h he Wes .
This subchap e concludes ha Tu kmenis an’s ene gy policy in he
Cen al Asian ESC is in no small deg ee linked o i s o he ex e nal and
in e nal policies.583 Tha means ha he bounda ies be ween in e nal,
ex e nal, and ene gy policies a e blu y and di icul o dis inguish.584
Howe e , he aison d’ê e o Tu kmenis an’s ex e nal policy is ob ious,
and he egime’s beha io is qui e p edic able when iewed om he eal-
is poin o iew. The goal is he p ese a ion o he egime, consolida ion
o i s powe , and he p ospe i y o i s membe ship, as is he case in mos
i no all au ho i a ian egimes.
The cons uc ion o he h ee lines o he Tu kmenis an–China Gas
Pipeline he alded emendous success o Tu kmenis an’s ene gy policy.
The p elimina y ag eemen was concluded wi h China in 2006, and in
579 “Uk aine Begins o Supply Equipmen o Base Field o Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipe-
line,” Cihan News Agency, Sep embe 25, 2014, h ps://www. he eelib a y.com/Uk aine
+begins+ o+supply+equipmen + o +base+ ield+o +Tu kmen-China...-a0383752814.
580 “Rolls-Royce o Supply Comp esso Uni s o Cen al Asia-China Gas Pipeline,” In e ax,
Sep embe 11, 2011.
581 “Rime a o Deli e Equipmen Wo h 5.27 USD o Tu kmenis an-China Gas Pipeline,” AKI
P ess News Agency, Ma ch 11, 2014.
582 “Honeywell Au oma ion, Sa e y Technology Selec ed o Thi d Phase o Cen al Asia- o-
China Na u al Gas Pipeline P ojec ,” Honeywell, P ess Release, May 5, 2014, h ps://www
.honeywellp ocess.com/en-US/news-and-e en s/Pages/p -05012014-honeywell-au oma ion
-sa e y- echnology-selec ed- o - hi d-phase.aspx
583 Jean Ga ison, “Explaining he Cen al Asian Ene gy Game: Complex In e dependence and
How Small S a es In luence Thei Big Neighbo s,” Asian Pe spec i e 35 no. 3 (2011): 381–405.
584 Luca Anceschi, “In eg a ing Domes ic Policies and Fo eign Policy Making: The Cases o
Tu kmenis an and Uzbekis an,” Cen al Asian Su ey 29, no. 2 (2010): 143–158.
153
only six yea s na u al gas om Tu kmenis an was lowing in o Hong
Kong.585 Mo e han 140 bcm o na u al gas in o al we e anspo ed
o China ia Lines A, B, and C be ween la e 2009 and Ma ch 2016.586
China is now Tu kmenis an’s la ges ading pa ne .587 I seems ha he
Beijing-Ashgaba axis is g adually de eloping om ene gy-based coop-
e a ion in o a poli ical pa ne ship. Tu kmengaz es ima es ha he sha e
o na u al gas in China’s ene gy mix will ise om 4 pe cen in 2015 o
11 pe cen by 2040. Tha should make Tu kmenis an ex emely impo an
o China’s economy and i s ene gy indus y. Tu kmengaz also es ima es
ha ising gas demand in India and o he s a es will signi ican ly imp o e
Tu kmenis an’s s anding in he wo ld.588 On he o he hand, in one de-
cade Russia los a bene icial ene gy pa ne ha had been connec ed o
and dependen on i s ene gy in as uc u e since he 1950s. The massi e
inc ease in Tu kmenis an’s expo s o na u al gas is shown in Table 19.
The slump in expo s caused by he swi ch om Russia o China as key
expo pa ne in 2009–10 is clea ly isible in Table 19.
Russia ied o come up wi h a coun e o e o China’s in he o m o
he Caspian Coas al Gas Pipeline. Howe e , ha p ojec ailed o h ee
p incipal easons. Fi s , Tu kmenis an is s ill e y sensi i e abou Russia’s
neo-impe ial ambi ions because o i s expe ience wi h he So ie Union.
Ashgaba was wa y o Russia using i s gas o play geos a egic games a
he same ime when ep esen a i es o Gazp om and he go e nmen in
Moscow mocked hei Cen al Asian supplie s. Second, Russia was no
a eliable ene gy pa ne o Tu kmenis an because o epea ed clashes
o e p icing o ene gy expo s. This p oblem was compounded by he
global inancial c isis when Eu opean demand signi ican ly dec eased.
Thi d, Russia was simply unable o compe e wi h China’s economic and
inancial migh when Beijing decided o “ma ch wes wa d.” These issues
explain Tu kmenis an’s emphasis on s a egic secu i y o e economic log-
ic and con i m ha i s ene gy policy in he Cen al Asian ESC is mainly
s a egic-o ien ed. Tu kmenis an’s s a egic app oach o i s ene gy policy
was exempli ied by i s en husias ic emb ace o he Tu kmenis an–China
Gas Pipeline.
585 “V 2012 godu u kmenskii p i odnyi gaz doide do Gonkonga,” Tu kmenis an. u, May 26, 2011.
586 “Gas Supply Via Tu kmenis an-China Pipeline Inc eases,” Aze news.az, Ap il 23, 2016, h ps://
www.aze news.az/ egion/95630.h ml
587 “Tu kmenis an Seeks Close Ene gy, T anspo Coope a ion wi h China,” Tu kmen TV Al yn
Asy , June 24, 2016.
588 “Posledo a elnyi os znachimos i Tu kmenis ana na mezhduna odnom gazo om ynke,”
Tu kmengaz, No embe 8, 2015, www.oilgas.go . m/composi ions/24.