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Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
CHAPTER 17
Mega ends in he Insu ance
and Financial Sec o
RAIMO VOUTILAINEN & LASSE KOSKINEN
Takeaways o Leading Change
Mega ends a e complex in na u e, and a good unde s anding o hem
equi es new skills and pe spec i e. This chap e discusses mega ends in
he con ex o he insu ance and inancial sec o s. I a gues ha leade s
and manage s in he insu ance and inancial sec o mus be eady o ise
o new challenges, om managing businesses in complex en i onmen s
o ope a ing in ields ha a e undamen ally changing and in a ansi ion
phase. In connec ion wi h hese de elopmen s, mo e in o ma ion is
a ailable now han e e be o e, and ha in o ma ion mus be managed
e ec i ely. Analysing changes in e ms o indus y speci ic mega ends and
ends p esen s one possibili y o do his. Globalisa ion has opened new
oppo uni ies and b ough new isks o businesses. This chap e ou lines
how leade s and manage s wi hin insu ance and inancial en e p ises can
endo se he complex cha ac e o such ans o ma ions as well as he
dynamic na u e o hese changes.
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
Mega ends and ends o e a ui ul app oach o analysing change.
The e m “mega end”, as de ined by John Naisbi (1982), desc ibes
he signi ican social, economic, poli ical, and/o echnological mo emen s
ha shape ou li es. Mega ends a e la ge in magni ude, longe in
du a ion, and deepe in hei e ec s han no mal ends. They a e complex
combina ions o ac o s and huge in hei e ec , in bo h ime and space
(Mi els aed , Shul z, Kilbou ne, & Pe e son, 2014). Mega ends can bes
be iden i ied and analysed in ela ion o mo e de ailed g ass oo s ends.
We examine how con empo a y mega ends a e isible in he insu ance
and inancial sec o , alongside key ends ha ha e al e ed he landscape
in his a ea. We show ha managing his change has become a majo
challenge o he op managemen o inancial en e p ises and poin ou
ways in which companies in hese sec o s can espond o he challenges
a ising om con empo a y mega ends.
A bo h he Eu opean and global le els, he insu ance and inancial
sec o has expe ienced p o ound s uc u al change in ecen decades.
One key ac o in hese de elopmen s has been he banking sec o and
insu ance sec o compe ing wi h each o he while a he same ime also
coope a ing wi h each o he (Vou ilainen, 2006). Compe i ion has aken
place in he o m o inancial con e gence. This means insu ance companies
launch p oduc s ha pe o m nea ly o exac ly he same ask as p oduc s
om banks, o ice e sa. Ano he mani es a ion o inancial con e gence
is a company in one o hese sec o s es ablishing a new company in ano he
sec o o acqui ing a company in ha sec o . Finnish banks ha e been
especially ac i e in es ablishing o acqui ing insu ance companies, which
is why he chap e ocuses on examples om Finland.
As o coope a ion, alliances ha e been o med be ween banks and
insu ance companies. The mos p e e ed alliance model om he
execu i e managemen poin o iew is a inancial conglome a e – banks
and insu ance companies ope a ing unde common owne ship. The
bene i s o his a angemen is he inc eased po en ial o e ec i e c oss-
selling and di e si ica ion o business po olios. The d awbacks include
high capi al cos s and o en signi ican upswings and downswings in
business esul s (e.g., Vou ilainen, 2006). He e oo, expansion beyond he
inancial sec o can be seen, wi h banks and insu ance companies s a ing
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Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
join ope a ions in o he ields (e.g., OP G oup, 2018). A he same ime,
non- inancial companies ha e en e ed he insu ance and inancial sec o .
We hen iden i y a ious (mic o) ends in hese ields, p o iding
bo h Finnish and in e na ional examples and discussing he bene i s and
d awbacks associa ed wi h he indi idual ends. The discussion also
examines each o hese ends in ligh o socie al mega ends.
Figu e 1 summa ises he ela ionship be ween indi idual and mac o
ends. A he uppe le el he e a e he h ee mega ends: (M1) Mo e
complex egula ion and axa ion, (M2) Technology and demog aphic
ansi ion, and (M3) Fundamen ally changing business models. We
in oduce hem on he basis o hei magni ude, du a ion, and e ec s on
he insu ance and inancial sec o s. A he lowe le el we classi y indi idual
ends unde applicable mega ends.
MEGATREND 1
MORE COMPLEX
REGULATION AND
TAXATION
MEGATREND 2
TECHNOLOGY AND
DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
MEGATREND 3
FUNDAMENTALLY
CHANGING
BUSINESS MODELS
• Inc easing inancial
egula ion
• Changes o axa ion
and ax policy
• P oduc s being ailo ed
cus ome -speci ically
• Digi alisa ion
• New heal h-ca e p oduc s
(old age and o he )
• Hyb id p oduc s
• Incen i e-based insu ance
p oduc s
• Cybe secu i y
• Financial con e gence
• Non- inancial
con e gence
• C oss-selling
• One-s op shopping
• Opening o alue chains
Mega ends and indi idual ends
FIGURE 1: Indi idual ends and co esponding mega ends
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
This chap e p oceeds in he ollowing way. Fi s , we discuss he
mega end, mo e complex egula ion and axa ion. We hen examine he
echnology and demog aphic ansi ion mega end. This is ollowed by a
discussion on undamen ally changing business models. We hen examine
he ole o isk managemen
The T ends and Mega ends Obse ed
T ends in he insu ance and inancial sec o a e pa ly exogenous bu a e
also in luenced by he ac ions o he indus y. On he basis o obse ed
indus y p ac ice and epo s, we ha e iden i ied se e al ends:
• Inc easing inancial egula ion
• Changes o axa ion and ax policy
• P oduc s being ailo ed cus ome -speci ically
• Digi alisa ion
• New heal h-ca e p oduc s (old age and o he )
• Financial con e gence
• Non- inancial con e gence
• Incen i e-based insu ance p oduc s
• C oss-selling
• One-s op shopping
• Hyb id p oduc s
• Cybe secu i y
• Opening o alue chains
P oceeding om scien i ic indings, we u he classi y hese undamen al
ends in e ms o socie al mega ends. The ends lis ed abo e can be bes
ca ego ised as pa o h ee mega ends: The i s o hese is a mega end
o mo e complex egula ion and axa ion; he second is demog aphic and
echnology ansi ion. The hi d e e s o undamen al changes in business
models. While he indi idual ends could be classi ied in se e al ways, he
au ho s ind his app oach o be mos logical o he eason ha each end
can easily be a ached o i s co esponding mega end.
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
Mo e Complex Regula ion and Taxa ion
Complexi y o he inancial sec o is a well-known phenomenon. Nicola
Ce o elli, James McAnd ews, and James T aina (2014) ha e shown ha bank
holding companies ha e g own in size and also become subs an ially mo e
complex. The indings sugges ha g ea e complexi y is a na u al adap a ion
o a new model o inance o ien ed owa d secu i isa ion. I is an impo an
one indeed. Åke F eij (2017) has demons a ed he g ea signi icance
o egula o y change o i ms and en i e indus ies and he di icul y in
managing he implemen a ion o new equi emen s a ising om such
change. The inancial sec o well exempli ies he ype o bounda y-spanning
phenomenon his book ocuses on. Changes occu ing in he inancial sec o
a e an ou come o ac ions and in e ac ions o public au ho i ies and p i a e
ac o s. These ac ions and in e ac ions a e also mul iscala in he sense ha
hei o igins a e in local, egional, na ional o sup ana ional en i onmen s.
The s onges shape s o ends and changes in economic li e a e
he ac ions o public au ho i ies, pa icula ly in ela ion o egula ion
and axa ion. Decisi e mo emen in his a ea is especially s ong in he
insu ance and inance sec o . Mani es ed p incipally in s ic e ules, his
clea ly quali ies as a mega end. This sec ion desc ibes he eme gence
o a mo e complex egula ion and axa ion landscape. I dissec s his
mega end in o wo ends: We i s examine he e ec s o inc easing
inancial egula ion on he ac ions o companies. We hen de ail ends in
axa ion and axa ion policies.
In he insu ance sec o , he EU Sol ency II egula ions ha e been in o ce
since he s a o 2016. The new ules a e isk-based and en ail much mo e
p ecise isk es ima es han ea lie egula ions, o bo h he in es men s and
echnical ese es o insu ance companies. A he same ime, wi h he new
Basel ules, capi al and liquidi y equi emen s o banks ha e inc eased.
The Basel ules we e se up by he in e na ional Basel Commi ee and
egula e mainly capi al and liquidi y equi emen s o banks. Many bigge
banks apply in e nal models o capi al adequacy calcula ions, bu he Basel
commi ee seems o be heading owa ds p ohibi ing he use o in e nal
models (expec ed wi h he so-called Basel 4).

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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
The Eu opean Insu ance and Occupa ional Pensions Au ho i y (EIOPA)
is he au ho i y o egula ing sol ency equi emen s o insu ance
companies and occupa ional pensions companies in he EU. I has
p o ided ins uc ions o se e al s ess es s (e.g., Eu opean Insu ance and
Occupa ional Pensions Au ho i y, 2016) o assess he esilience o Eu opean
insu ance companies agains ad e se mac oeconomic de elopmen s. The
new Sol ency II ules a e so s ic , in ac , ha se e al Eu opean insu ance
companies ha e op ed o ake ad an age o ansi ion a angemen s made
possible by supe iso y au ho i ies and e ms o Sol ency II.
The capi al equi emen associa ed wi h adi ional and wi h p o i s li e
insu ance a e one impo an example o how igo ous he new sol ency
ules a e. In adi ional li e insu ance, he e is a capi al gua an ee and a
limi ed p o i gua an ee. The capi al gua an ee obliga ion equi es he i ms
o hold a la ge amoun o sol ency capi al. An al e na i e o he adi ional
li e p oduc , uni -linked li e insu ance in ol es no gua an ee. The insu ed
decides how o in es his o he money and e ains ull esponsibili y o
p o i s and losses du ing he insu ance pe iod.
I is na u al ha he sol ency capi al equi emen o uni -linked
insu ance is only a small ac ion o he capi al equi emen o adi ional
insu ance. Howe e , wi h Sol ency II, his di e ence becomes e en
la ge . Consequen ly, insu ance companies a e shi ing hei businesses
om adi ional li e insu ance o uni -linked o e ings (see Ruuskanen &
Vou ilainen, 2015). Fo egula o y easons, cus ome s a e no longe able o
ob ain gua an eed policies. They a e obliged o make in es men decisions
hey a e no quali ied o make o a leas o en dislike. As a esponse,
li e insu ance companies ha e s a ed o p oduce comp omise p oduc s
combining ea u es o adi ional and uni -linked li e p oduc s: so-called
a iable annui ies wi h a limi ed gua an ee (Ruuskanen & Vou ilainen,
2015). In his p oduc , he insu ance company may be obliged o pay back
a leas he amoun o he p emiums – o example, as a dea h bene i o
as sa ings a a ce ain ime. The sol ency capi al equi emen o a a iable
annui y is less han ha o adi ional li e insu ance bu g ea e han he
amoun o capi al equi ed o uni -linked insu ance.
Supe ision o la ge inancial conglome a es is pa icula ly challenging,
especially in cases o c oss-bo de g oups. Pekka Ko honen, Lasse Koskinen,
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
and Raimo Vou ilainen (2006) b ough oge he Finnish banking and
insu ance supe iso s o asce ain which model o alliance be ween banks
and insu ance companies hey mos p e e ed. The supe iso s chose a
loose c oss-selling ag eemen , ci ing supe isabili y and managemen o
sys em isk as he mos impo an c i e ia in hei decision.
The second elemen in he mega end o inc eased egula o y
complexi y is he axa ion en i onmen . Taxes on inancial p oduc s
ha e p o ound e ec s on cus ome beha iou and, he eby, on p oduc
de elopmen . Below, we illus a e he e ec s o shi s and complexi ies in
axa ion, which is highly coun y-dependen , by looking a de elopmen s
in Finland. This is an in e es ing example o how public and p i a e ac o s
behind change dynamics in e ac .
The Finnish s a e has e o med he ax ea men o indi idual pension
insu ance se e al imes o e he las wo decades. The lowes possible
e i emen age has been aised and ax deduc ions o p emiums ha e
dec eased. Be o e he la es ax
e o m, he e we e 700.000 pension
insu ance cus ome s, bu ew ha e
been in e es ed in he p oduc since
hen. Cu en ly, he lowes e i emen
age allowed is 68 yea s and he pension
mus be paid ou o e a span o no
less han 10 yea s. In o ma ion on
Finnish axa ion sys em can be ound
in Finanssi al on a (2017).
As changes in he s a e’s axa ion
policy ha e made indi idual pension
p oduc s una ac i e o cus ome s, li e
insu ance companies ha e de eloped
o he p oduc s sui able o long- e m
sa ings pu poses. Fo example, No dea, which is he bigges inancial
g oup in he No dic coun ies, has launched a capi al edemp ion plan
ha pays ou egula ly. The p oduc , called Ta ge Sa ing, can supplemen
he manda o y pension, bu i can also be used o inance s udies o any
ime when he e is no ac ual sala y, hanks o he egula ou paymen s.
As changes in he s a e’s
axa ion policy ha e made
indi idual pension p oduc s
una ac i e o cus ome s,
li e insu ance companies
ha e de eloped o he
p oduc s sui able o long-
e m sa ings pu poses.
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
The p oduc has no ax-deduc ion bene i s like hose o he indi idual
pension, bu i s axa ion is neu al. This is conside ed sa is ac o y since
he e a e no es ic ions on wi hd awals as wi h indi idual pension plans
( o a close desc ip ion o he p oduc , see No dea, 2017). I is clea ha ,
because o he ad e se ax ea men o indi idual pension insu ance,
cus ome s a e u ning o al e na i e long- e m sa ings p oduc s de eloped
by li e insu ance companies. While lacking ax deduc abili y o he
p emiums, hey do no impose es ic ions on wi hd awals o sa ings.
Ano he pa o he pic u e is mo ali y co e – li e insu ance wi h
dea h as insu ed e en . The e m “mo ali y p o ec ion gap” e e s o
he sho all be ween he amoun o co e age and wha is necessa y
o main aining he li ing s anda ds o dependen s. The size o his
gap is calcula ed as ollows: esou ces needed minus co e age in
place h ough indi idual policies and employe -sponso ed g oup li e
co e age. The einsu ance company Swiss Re (2015) has es ima ed he
mo ali y p o ec ion gap in he Asia–Paci ic egion has inc eased sha ply,
amoun ing o 58 illion US dolla s, o 255% o he egion’s g oss domes ic
p oduc . Unsu p isingly, a la ge mo ali y p o ec ion gap is a sign o sales
po en ial o li e insu ance companies. In Finland he dea h sum (i.e., he
amoun payable upon dea h) has enjoyed ce ain bene i s in inhe i ance
axa ion. Howe e , hese bene i s ceased a he beginning o 2018. This
change a ec s indi idual and g oup policies alike, also encompassing
policies sponso ed by he employe . The new legisla ion has led o
g ea disappoin men (exp essed by consume o ganisa ions and labou
unions), because he e a e compelling social easons o a o able ax
ea men o mo ali y co e age.
One ad an age o uni -linked insu ance is ha he alue change o
in es men objec s (mos o en in es men unds) does no esul in
axable capi al income. The ax is no collec ed be o e he end o he
insu ance e m, which could be called a ax pos ponemen bene i . A
wo king g oup unde he leade ship o he Finnish Minis y o Finance
is e iewing he possibili ies o axing his bene i , as is done in Sweden.
The Finnish insu ance indus y is lobbying hea ily agains his because
insu ance al eady has disad an ages when compa ed o o he o ms o
sa ing. In Finland, he e is double axa ion, a leas in pa , o almos
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
all ypes o li e insu ance. The only excep ion is isk li e insu ance which
is no mo ali y insu ance and in which he claim amoun is paid ou
as a ax- ee lump sum.
This mega end includes changes in bo h egula ion and axa ion.
The egula ion end has a ec ed he p oduc o e ings o li e insu ance
companies. The axa ion end has made ce ain p oduc s una ac i e o
cus ome s which in u n has a ec ed p oduc de elopmen and o e ings
o li e insu ance companies and banks as hei agen s.
The Finnish Go e nmen has in oduced a new banking p oduc – he
in es men sa ings accoun – o equi y sa ing. The p oduc has he same
ax-pos ponemen p ope y as uni linked insu ance.
Technology and Demog aphic T ansi ion
B eak h oughs in such ields as a i icial in elligence and he In e ne
o hings a e making a huge impac on indus y, on bo h he echnology
and he business on s. A he same ime, he aging o popula ions
con ibu es o e e y hing om economic shi s o changes in socie al
no ms. In ou analysis, he combined e ec o echnological de elopmen s
and demog aphic ansi ion cons i u es a mega end. This mega end is
ans o ming socie y adically. We ha e dissec ed his mega end in o
se e al smalle scale ends (see Figu e 1).
E idence o his mega end can be seen in he digi alisa ion o he
insu ance and inancial sec o whe e he in e ace be ween company and
cus ome is mo ing o he In e ne . Jobs a e anishing in la ge numbe s
while new jobs eme ge. Pe e Weill and S ephanie L. Woe ne (2013) discuss
op imisa ion o digi al business models. While many a e pessimis ic abou
he loss o jobs, o he s a e less wo ied, s a ing, o example, ha “Booz &
Company’s econome ic analysis es ima es ha , despi e he un a ou able
global economic clima e, digi alisa ion p o ided a USD 193 billion boos o
wo ld economic ou pu and c ea ed 6 million jobs globally in 2011” (p. XIV,
Sabbagh, F ied ich, El-Da wiche, Singh, & Kos e , 2013). Ei he way,
inancial-se ices en e p ises should espond by in es ing in de eloping
he abili ies o hei employees o deal wi h change.
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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
and insu ance indus ies h ough a complex ne wo k o ela ionships ha
changes on mul iple ime scales.
Financial c ises such as hose o 1998, 2001, and 2008 highligh he need o
holis ic isk managemen and isk-based capi al equi emen s. In esponse,
Sol ency II and Basel II–IV egula ions pe mi insu ance companies and
banks o use in e nal (in-house) models o isk managemen and o
calcula ing he sol ency capi al equi emen . Howe e , weak in e nal
models we e one cause o he c ises in 2008.
The main objec i es and po en ial bene i s o using in e nal models o
egula o y pu poses include isk managemen ha is mo e isk-sensi i e
and inno a i e, along wi h g ea e e iciencies in e ms o capi al and
cos s. S a is ical modeling is a key pa o any in e nal model a emp s
o o ecas he p obabili y dis ibu ion o he p o i -and-loss accoun
and he unds a ailable in e nally (Eu opean Insu ance and Occupa ional
Pensions Au ho i y, 2014).
As o he sol ency capi al equi emen o insu ance companies,
a o ecas looking one yea ahead o he 99.5 h pe cen ile (VaR) is he
calib a ion a ge . The modeling a eas a e add essed by he s a is ical
quali y es and calib a ion es in he Sol ency II amewo k. Fo an
o e iew, we di ec he eade o he key a icles o he di ec i e and he
aspec o in e nal models ha hey add ess:
• A . 113: Policy o changing o he model
• A . 114: Go e nance and managemen
• A . 118: The use es (add essing whe he he model is ele an o
and used in isk managemen )
• A . 119: S a is ical quali y s anda ds
• A . 120: Calib a ion s anda ds
• A . 121: P o i and loss a ibu ion
• A . 122: Valida ion s anda ds
• A . 123: Documen a ion s anda ds
Senio managemen unde s anding o in e nal model and i s uses is
one o he key p inciples guiding he use es . Leade s should ha e an
o e all unde s anding o he in e nal model, as well as speci ic a eas hey
use he model.

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Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es
Mega ends in he Insu ance and Financial Sec o
All o hese s anda ds a e use ul in he de elopmen and applica ion
o in e nal models in oday’s changing wo ld, wi h he aim o be e isk
managemen . An in e nal model is p inciple-based ins ead o ule-based.
Tha ea u e is o g ea impo ance, since i aids in i ing he model o
he changing en i onmen – especially wi h ega d o he business models
ela ed o he mega ends desc ibed abo e.
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Edi ed by Anni Kangas, Johanna Kujala, Anna Heikkinen,
An i Lönnq is , Ha i Laihonen and Julia Be hwai e
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