A icle
On he Reliabili y o In e na ional Fo es Sec o
S a is ics: P oblems and Needs o Imp o emen s
A. Maa i I. Kallio 1,*ID and Bi ge Solbe g 2
1Bioeconomy and En i onmen , Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland, La oka anonkaa i 9,
00790 Helsinki, Finland
2Facul y o En i onmen al Sciences and Na u al Resou ce Managemen , No wegian Uni e si y o Li e
Sciences, Uni e si e s une 3, 1433 Ås, No way; bi ge [email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]; Tel.: +358-295-325-434
Recei ed: 6 June 2018; Accep ed: 3 July 2018; Published: 5 July 2018


Abs ac :
S a is ics on p oduc ion and ade o o es p oduc s o m a basis o he analyses o he
economic and en i onmen al pe o mance o he o es sec o and o p ojec ing u u e de elopmen s
in he sec o and ela ed ma ke s. The o es p oduc s a is ics FAOSTAT by Food and Ag icul u e
O ganiza ion o he Uni ed Na ions (FAO) a e pe haps he mos widely used da a sou ce o such
analyses. This s udy aimed a sys ema ically sc u inizing his impo an da ase and iden i ying
egions and p oduc ca ego ies whe e imp o ed da a on wood and o es indus y p oduc ion and
ade would be needed in o de o se he modeling and analyses employing hese da a on a mo e
solid basis. The consis ency o he da a on p oduc ion, impo s, and expo olumes o wood was
examined wi h some simple es s and wi h he aid o linea p og amming. The esul s show ha he
da a ela ed o he supply o wood chips and pa icles a e un eliable in many coun ies. Imp o ing
hese da a would be impo an in o de o assess he cascading wood inpu –ou pu lows, o e alua e
esou ce po en ials, and o speci y mo e eliable coe icien s o wood use in o es sec o models.
Mo eo e , he da a show ema kable inconsis encies, e en o he magni ude o millions o cubic
me e s, be ween he appa en supply o wood (ha es s + ne impo s) and o es indus y p oduc ion
in many egions. E o s and unce ain ies o such magni ude ha e impo an consequences on he
esul s o any analysis using he da a and call o special a en ion by he da a use s.
Keywo ds: da a; e o s; o es p oduc s; o es y; s a is ics; FAOSTAT; modeling
1. In oduc ion
The o es p oduc s a is ics FAOSTAT o Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion o he Uni ed
Na ions (FAO) on he p oduc ion and ade o wood and wood p oduc s [
1
] p o ide an impo an and
aluable basis o he economic and en i onmen al analyses and p ojec ions o he de elopmen s in
he o es sec o . Consequen ly, hese s a is ics a e employed o a ious sec o al analyses using pa ial
economic equilib ium models, such as he global o es p oduc model (GFPM [
2
]), he global o es
sec o model EFI-GTM (e.g., [
3
]), he global biosphe e managemen model (GLOBIOM [
4
]), and many
o he s. Typically, he FAOSTAT da a a e used o de ining wood ha es olumes and appa en
consump ion le els o he o es indus y p oduc s o he i s pe iod modeled (base yea ) in such
models. Depending on he model, he FAOSTAT da a may also be employed, o ins ance, o de ine
ine ia cons ain s o he ade in o es p oduc s, o de ine he base yea p oduc ion capaci ies o he
o es indus y, and o calib a e he wood-inpu coe icien s and p oduc ion cos s o he o es indus y.
Fu he mo e, many o he p ognoses and analyses ([
5
,
6
]) conce ning consump ion and he ma ke s o
o es p oduc s a e based on hese da a. Among he a ious o he esea ch pu poses, he da a ha e
been used o suppo s udies on ca bon dynamics in wood p oduc s [
7
], he wa e oo p in o o es
Fo es s 2018,9, 407; doi:10.3390/ 9070407 www.mdpi.com/jou nal/ o es s
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 2 o 17
p oduc s [
8
], he o es oo p in o he Eu opean Union [
9
], and he ole o ade in de o es a ion [
10
],
o name bu a ew examples o he ecen s udies. The FAOSTAT da a could also be use ul o he
In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) o acking he p oduc ion, ade, and appa en
consump ion o ha es ed wood p oduc s and oundwood [
11
] and o he de elopmen o clima e
change mi iga ion policies (e.g., [11,12]).
The eliabili y o hese da a is hus o c ucial impo ance. This s udy aims a sys ema ically
sc u inizing hem and iden i ying he mos impo an p oduc g oups and geog aphical a eas whe e
imp o emen s would be equi ed o se he modeling, analyses, and o ecas ing o he o es sec o
on mo e solid g ound. The da a on p oduc ion, impo s, and expo quan i ies a e explo ed i s wi h
some simple es s and hen wi h he aid o linea p og amming (LP). In he la e case, i is es ed i i is
possible o ind easonable wood inpu coe icien s o a ious indus ial p oduc s so ha he olume
o wood biomass a ailable acco ding o he s a is ics has been adequa e o supply he aw ma e ial
needs o he epo ed p oduc ion quan i ies in he o es indus ies. The es s iden i y conside able
inconsis encies in he da a o se e al coun ies.
2. Ma e ial and Me hods
2.1. Da a
2.1.1. Da a on P oduc ion and T ade
The main da a sou ce and also he subjec o ou analysis was he FAOSTAT o es y da abase.
In addi ion, he Uni ed Na ions Economic Commission o Eu ope (UNECE)-FAO p oduc ion
s a is ics [
13
] we e used o gain in o ma ion on he di ision o plywood p oduc ion o so wood
and ha dwood g ades in he coun ies wi hin he domain o hose s a is ics. The da a in FAO pulp
and pape p oduc ion capaci y su eys om he yea 2000 onwa ds [
14
] we e used as an aid o di ide
sul a e pulp p oduc ion o so wood and ha dwood g ades, hough hese da a do no seem o co e all
coun ies. Fo pulp p oduc ion, da a om RISI [
15
] we e also a ailable, bu because his da ase is no
a ailable o ee, i s use was limi ed he e o in o m i a coun y only p oduced ha dwood o so wood
sul a e pulp.
Table 1p esen s he p oduc s conside ed and he sou ces o he da a on p oduc ion and ade
ha we e al eady a ailable o es ima ed wi hin his s udy using linea p og amming.
In he FAOSTAT da a, he ca ego y “wood chips and pa icles” includes wood educed o small
pieces, which issui able o pulping, pa icle boa d o ibe boa d p oduc ion, and wood o use as a uel
o o he pu poses. I excludes wood chips made di ec ly in he o es om oundwood. The ca ego y
“wood esidues” includes wood p ocessing co-p oduc s o he han hose belonging o wood chips
and pa icles, such as sawmill ejec s, slabs, edgings and immings, enee log co es, enee ejec s,
sawdus , esidues om ca pen y and joine y p oduc ion, and wood esidues ha will be used o
p oduc ion o pelle s and o he agglome a ed p oduc s.
Table 1.
Annual p oduc ion and ade da a used. D = Da a gi en in FAO o es p oduc s a is ics
(FAOSTAT [
1
]), U = da a gi en in UNECE/FAO [
13
] o Eu ope and No h Ame ica, e = da a es ima ed
based on he o he da a using linea p og amming. C = coni e ous, NC = non-coni e ous, Sa = sul a e, Si
= sul i e, Bl = bleached, Unbl = unbleached. UNECE/FAO, he Uni ed Na ions Economic Commission
o Eu ope-The Food and Ag icul u e O ganiza ion o he Uni ed Na ions.
P oduc P oduc P oduc ion Impo s Expo s
Indus ial oundwood C D D D
Sawlogs and enee logs C D e e
Pulpwood C D e e
O he indus ial oundwood C D e e
Indus ial oundwood NC D D D
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 3 o 17
Table 1. Con .
P oduc P oduc P oduc ion Impo s Expo s
Indus ial oundwood NC,
non- opical D D
Indus ial oundwood NC, opical D D
Sawlogs and enee logs NC D e e
Pulpwood NC D e e
O he indus ial oundwood NC D e e
Wood esidues D D D
Wood esidues C e
Wood esidues NC e
Chips and pa icles D D D
Chips and pa icles C e e e
Chips and pa icles NC e e e
Pelle s
D (since 2012)
Chemical pulp D
Dissol ing pulp D
Chemical wood pulp Sa Unbl D
Chemical wood pulp Sa Bl D
-Bleached ha dwood k a e
-Bleached so wood k a e
Chemical wood pulp Si Unbl D
Chemical wood pulp Si Bl D
Semichemical pulp D
Mechanical pulp D
Sawnwood C D
Sawnwood NC D
Plywood and enee D
Plywood and enee C e, U
Plywood and enee NC e, U
Pa icleboa d D
OSB (O ien ed s and boa d)
D (since 1995)
MDF (Medium-densi y ib eboa d)/
HDF (High-densi y ib eboa d) D
Ha dboa d D
Fibe boa d D
2.1.2. Da a on Con e sion Fac o s Used in LP Tes
He e, he e m con e sion ac o e e s o an inpu quan i y o oundwood, wood esidues,
o chips and pa icles in solid cubic me e s (m
3
) unde ba k needed o p oduce one cubic me e o
mechanical o es indus y p oduc o 1 onne o pulp. The assump ions made ega ding he possible
uses o di e en wood ca ego ies wi hin he o es indus y a e gi en in Table 2.
The main e e ences o he con e sion ac o s we e he UNECE and he Eu opean Fo es Sec o
Ou look S udy 2005 [
16
–
18
]. Table 2summa izes he con e sion ac o s, while any a ailable coun y
speci ic con e sion ac o s used a e p o ided in he Supplemen a y Ma e ials (Supplemen a y File S1:
Da a o e e ence inpu coe icien s (excel- ile)).
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 4 o 17
Table 2.
Wood ca ego ies sui able as inpu s in o es indus y p oduc s and he assumed ypical (Re ), low (Re low), and high (Re high) wood inpu quan i ies in he
linea p og amming (LP) es when coun y-speci ic e e ence quan i ies we e no a ailable. Min and Max in he pa en heses a e addi ional b oade minimum and
maximum inpu quan i ies applied o all egions, espec i ely. Slogs = sawlogs and enee logs, Pwd = pulpwood, Res = wood esidues, Chips = chips and pa icles,
C = coni e ous, and NC = non-coni e ous. Sou ces: a = The smalles alue gi en in UNECE [
18
] (a e Spain and Po ugal wi h 1.2 m
3
/m
3
o enee shee s emo ed
om he sample); b = A e age o all alues in [18]; and c = he highes alue in [18]. I da a we e no a ailable om [18] o (a), (b), o (c), da a om [16] we e used.
Fo es Indus y P oduc Re Low (Min), m3o
Wood pe Uni o Ou pu
Re Typical, m3o Wood
pe Uni o Ou pu
Re High (Max), m3o
Wood pe Uni o Ou pu Wood Ca ego ies Sui able as Inpu s
Chemical wood pulp Si Un bl. 4.6 (4.0) 4.5 6.0 (6.0) Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC)
Chemical wood pulp Sa Un bl. 3.5 (3.2) 4.3 5.0 (5.5) Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC)
Chemical wood pulp Si Bl. 4.6 (4.0) 5.0 6.5 (6.5) Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC)
Chemical wood pulp Sa Bl. 3.5 (2.98) 4.5 5.5 (6.5) Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC)
Bleached ha dwood k a 3.5 (2.98) 3.8 4.3 (5) Pwd (NC), Chips (NC)
Bleached so wood k a 4.5 (4.79) 4.9 5.3 (6.5) Pwd (C), Chips (C)
Dissol ing pulp 5.1 (5.0) 5.65 b 6.5 (6.8) Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC)
Semichemical pulp 2.5 (2.3 a) 2.83 b 3 (3.2 c) Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC)
Mechanical pulp 2.4 (2.3 a) 2.5 b 2.9 (2.9 c) Pwd (C), Chips (C)
Sawnwood C 1.6 (1.42 a) 1.77 b 2.0 (2.22 c) Slogs (C)
Sawnwood NC 1.5 (1.4 a) 1.76 b 2.1 (2.5 c) Slogs (NC)
Plywood and enee shee s 1.7 (1.67 a) 2.19 b 2.5 (3.1 c) Slogs (C), Slogs (NC)
Plywood and enee C 1.9 (1.67 a) 2.0 b 2.31 (2.9 c) Slogs (C)
Plywood and enee NC 2.0 (1.67 a) 2.29 b 2.68 (3.1 c) Slogs (NC)
Pa icleboa d 1.4 (1.2 a) 1.49 b 1.7 (1.93 c)
Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC), Res (C, NC)
OSB 1.4 (1.30 a) 1.64 b 2.0 (2.0 c)
Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC), Res (C, NC)
MDF/HDF 1.5 (1.45 a) 1.68 b 1.8 (1.93 c)
Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC), Res (C, NC)
Ha dboa d 1.8 (1.75 a) 1.97 b 2.3 (2.4 c)
Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC), Res (C, NC)
Fibe boa d 1.7 (1.5 a) 1.98 b 2.8 (3.0 c)
Pwd (C, NC), Chips (C, NC), Res (C, NC)
Pelle s 2.3 (2.2 a) 2.54 b 2.9 (3.0) Res (C, NC)
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 5 o 17
2.2. Me hods Used o Analyze he Da a
2.2.1. Simple Tes s wi h he Raw Da a
Fi s , he egional da a on he p oduc ion and ade o indus ial oundwood, wood esidues,
chips, and pa icles we e examined wi h h ee ela i ely simple es s i–iii, desc ibed below unde he
ques ions (i)–(iii), espec i ely.
(i) Is he epo ed wood p oduc ion a leas as high as he epo ed ne expo
(expo s −impo s)?
I no , he egion’s appa en wood consump ion is nega i e, which signals e o s in he unde lying da a.
The da a allowed his i s in easibili y check o be made o ou wood ca ego ies: indus ial
coni e ous oundwood, indus ial non-coni e ous oundwood, chips and pa icles, and wood esidues.
(ii) Is he epo ed p oduc ion o chips, pa icles, and wood esidues ( oo) high compa ed o he
p oduc ion o solid wood p oduc s?
This es iden i ies coun ies whe e he p oduced numbe o woody by-p oduc s is conside ably
highe han he p oduced amoun o he solid wood p oduc s. The es was ca ied ou o he ca ego y
o “wood chips and pa icles” alone and hen o he o al amoun o by-p oduc s labeled “wood chips
and pa icles” and “wood esidues”.
I he numbe o by-p oduc s is much highe han he p oduc ion o he p incipal p oduc s, he e is
p obably some hing w ong in he da a, despi e he ac ha pa o he esidues comes om u he
p ocessing o sawnwood, enee , and plywood o inished p oduc s, ca pen y, and so on.
Typically, chips and pa icles a e ob ained as a side p oduc o sawnwood and plywood
p oduc ion, and hey o m only pa o he ma e ial ob ained as by-p oduc s. Also, o he ypes
o esidues, o ins ance sawdus , a e coming ou . Mo eo e , pa o he log inpu in sawnwood and
plywood p oduc ion anishes due o sh inking. The log inpu coe icien unde ba k in he p oduc ion
o solid wood p oduc s is seldom abo e 2 (Table 2), in pa icula , when i comes o sawnwood ha
is mo e commonly p oduced han plywood and enee . Fo hese easons, i is easonable o expec
ha p oduc ion o chips and pa icles should no exceed ha o solid wood p oduc s. I he ou pu o
“chips and pa icles” and solid wood p oduc s we e equal, i would indica e ha li le o he ma e ial
would come ou om he p ocess.
(iii) A e he appa en le els o wood use high enough o he epo ed p oduc ion o o es
indus y p oduc s?
This es was done o all sawlogs and enee logs (coni e ous + non-coni e ous), o pulpwood
and pulpwood subs i u es (coni e ous pulpwood + non-coni e ous pulpwood + chips and pa icles),
and o all wood. I he assumed equi ed minimum consump ion o wood inpu s exceeds he amoun
o hei maximum a ailabili y unde he a he loose equi emen s discussed below, i is likely ha
he e is some hing w ong wi h he da a.
•Case o sawlogs and enee logs used o sawnwood, plywood, and enee
In his es , he assumed minimum quan i y o logs needed in sawnwood, enee , and plywood
p oduc ion in a coun y was compa ed o he maximum po en ial olume o sawlogs and enee logs
a ailable based on he s a is ics on wood ha es and ade. The es se ing was cau ious o he
ollowing easons. Fi s ly, i was assumed ha 1.5 m
3
o logs unde ba k a e su icien o p oduce one
uni o sawnwood, enee , o plywood. This coe icien can be conside ed somewha low
(see Table 2
).
Secondly, he maximum a ailable amoun o sawlogs and enee logs in a egion was de ined o
include sawlog and enee logs ha es s and all indus ial oundwood impo s o he coun y, despi e
he ac ha pa o he impo s can be pulpwood o oundwood o o he indus ial uses. Thi dly,
all he expo s o indus ial oundwood we e assumed o consis o he wood g ades o he han sawlogs
and enee logs.

Fo es s 2018,9, 407 6 o 17
•Case o wood ma e ial used o pulp
This es asked i he e may ha e been enough pulpwood, chips, and pa icles o sus ain he
epo ed wood pulp p oduc ion in a coun y. Again, he es was a he obus in he sense ha he
equi emen s o he da a passing he es we e se low. I was assumed ha all pulpwood, chips,
and pa icles po en ially a ailable in a egion may ha e been used o pulp p oduc ion, al hough
hese aw ma e ials a e also used o pa icle boa d, Medium-densi y ib eboa d (MDF), and o he
panel p oduc s. Fu he mo e, all indus ial oundwood impo s we e now assumed o be pulpwood,
while all oundwood expo s we e assumed o be o he wood g ades. I was modes ly assumed ha
chemical pulp equi es only 3 m
3
, dissol ing pulp 4 m
3
and mechanical and semi-chemical pulp 2 m
3
o wood ibe pe onne o pulp ou pu .
•Case o all wood ma e ials used o all p oduc s
This es added panels (pa icle boa d, O ien ed s and boa d (OSB), MDF, e c.) o he p e ious se
o p oduc s and asked whe he he p oduc ion o his new se o p oduc s could ha e been p oduced
by he wood ma e ial epo ed o be a ailable. a e y modes (see Table 2) wood use coe icien
was applied o hese panels: 1 m
3
/m
3
. Fo he o he p oduc s, he minimum inpu coe icien s
desc ibed abo e we e used. “Wood esidues” we e included o he a ailable wood oge he wi h
sawlogs, pulpwood, chips, and pa icles. The amoun o wood a ailable pe coun y was de ined
o include ne impo s (impo s
−
expo s) and own ha es s o p oduc ion o hese wood g ades.
The es compa ed only he o al wood ma e ial epo ed o be a ailable in a egion o he conse a i ely
de ined agg ega ed demand o wood ma e ials in he epo ed o es indus y p oduc ions. I imposed
no alloca ion ules based on he sui abili y o al e na i e wood g ades (Table 2) o di e en p oduc s.
2.2.2. Tes Using Linea P og amming
An LP o mula ion was used o imp o e he consis ency and p ecision o es iii o all wood
g ades and p oduc s and also o iden i y he cases whe e he egional wood supply seems oo high
compa ed o he espec i e o es indus y p oduc ion. Because he exac ma hema ical o mula ion
o he LP p oblem is space demanding, only i s main p inciples a e desc ibed he e, while a comple e
desc ip ion, including all he cons ain s, is p o ided in he Supplemen a y File S2: Desc ip ion o he
LP model (wo d.doc).
The main p inciple o he LP p og am is ha i aims o ind inpu coe icien s o he indus ial
p oduc s in Table 1 ha a e as close as possible o he e e ence alues gi en in Table 2(o he mo e
coun y-speci ic igu es) and which, when applied o he epo ed o es indus y p oduc ion da a,
ma ch he consump ion o a ious wood g ades o hei appa en a ailabili y (p oduc ion + impo s
−
expo s) as well as possible. The objec i e unc ion minimizes he sum o he a ious penal y a iables
ha allow he da a o be inconsis en wi h he ules de ined.
Th ee le els o penal y a iables o he wood inpu coe icien s no complying wi h hei e e ence
alues we e de ined: (1) a somewha low penal y o de ia ion om he poin es ima e e e ence alue;
(2) a highe penal y o inpu coe icien s no being wi hin an assumed ange a ound he e e ence alue;
and (3) he highes penal y o no e en i ing in be ween he absolu e minimum and maximum alues
de ined o he coe icien s. The de aul inpu coe icien alues a e gi en in Table 2bu we e e ined
as shown in he Supplemen a y Ma e ials when he e was addi ional coun y-speci ic in o ma ion
a ailable. When looking o he inpu coe icien s, cons ain s (subjec o penal y a iables i iola ed)
ha aim o minimize yea - o-yea luc ua ions o he inpu coe icien s we e also de ined so ha he
echnologies we e assumed o be ma e ial sa ing. a egional inpu coe icien o a p oduc in a gi en
yea ha was highe han ha in he p e ious yea was penalized i he e was p oduc ion in bo h yea s.
Roundwood ha es s we e cons ained o equal he ha es s epo ed in he s a is ics subjec o
penal y a iables. The calcula ed alue o he penal y a iable in a egion indica ed he sugges ed
de ia ion om oundwood ha es s om he s a is ics.
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 7 o 17
The p og am also di ided he aded quan i ies o oundwood gi en in he s a is ics be ween
pulpwood, sawlogs, and o he indus ial wood. I also di ided he p oduc ion o sul a e pulp, plywood
and enee , and chips and pa icles in o coni e ous and non-coni e ous g ades. These di isions we e
done so ha he da a become as consis en as possible wi h he wood use in he o es indus y.
Be o e doing he LP es , he da a showing nega i e appa en consump ion igu es o wood in
es i desc ibed in Sec ion 2.2.1 we e modi ied as ollows:
•The p oduc ion olumes o wood esidues and chips we e inc eased o ma ch wi h he expo s.
•
The p oduc ion olumes o o he coni e ous o o he non-coni e ous indus ial oundwood we e
inc eased i he appa en consump ion o coni e ous o non-coni e ous oundwood was nega i e,
espec i ely. Such ypically small adjus men s we e a ely needed.
Simila ly, no ing he inconsis encies aised by es ii, he ollowing modi ica ions o he da a
on by-p oduc ou pu s we e made be o e he LP es in o de o imp o e hei consis ency wi h he
p oduc ion o he solid wood p oduc s (sawnwood, plywood, and enee ).
•
The p oduc ion olumes o chips and pa icles we e dec eased o be a mos 80% o he p oduc ion
o solid wood p oduc s.
•
The p oduc ion o wood esidues was educed, i necessa y, so ha he esul ing logs inpu
calcula ed as “(sawnwood p oduc ion + plywood and enee p oduc ion + chips and pa icles
p oduc ion + wood esidues p oduc ion)/(sawnwood p oduc ion + plywood and enee
p oduc ion)” is a mos 2.8 m3/m3. I a coun y hen iola ed es i, he expo s we e educed.
Tes i in Sec ion 2.2.1 mos ly iden i ied cases whe e he p oduc ion o o es indus y esidues
was oo low compa ed o he expo s, while es ii ound cases whe e i was oo high, gene ally.
Consequen ly, u he co ec ions made based on es ii seldom a ec ed he same coun ies.
3. Resul s
3.1. Tes i: Is he Appa en Wood Consump ion Non-Nega i e?
Table 3shows he da a o coun ies ha had an appa en consump ion igu e o mo e han
5000 m
3
nega i e in 2015 o he ou wood ca ego ies es ed. The da ase o he cases o such nega i e
appa en consump ion igu es du ing a longe pe iod 2000–2016 is gi en in he Supplemen a y File S3:
Addi ional esul s om he es s (excel- ile).
The p oblem o da a indica ing nega i e consump ion le els is mos ly ela ed o he ca ego y o “chips
and pa icles”. a nega i e appa en consump ion o indus ial oundwood occu s only wi h a ew coun ies
du ing 2000–2016. Du ing he yea s o ha pe iod, only wo o ou coun ies ou o he 244 es ed had
an appa en consump ion igu e o less han
−
5000 m
3
o coni e ous indus ial oundwood and a mos
wo coun ies o non-coni e ous oundwood. The igu es o Cos a Rica and Myanma o coni e ous
oundwood we e nega i e o mos o his pe iod. These coun ies epo expo s o coni e ous wood
bu no p oduc ion o impo s. In 2015–2016, New Zealand epo ed nega i e appa en consump ion o
non-coni e ous oundwood. Fo “wood esidues”, he numbe o espec i e annual obse a ions wi h
nega i e appa en consump ion igu es a ied om one o eigh du ing 2000–2016, while o “chips and
pa icles” some imes up o 18 coun ies epo ed da a ha indica e nega i e appa en consump ion.
The p oblems o nega i e consump ion igu es o wood esidues, chips, and pa icles a e ypically
ela ed o he issue ha expo s a e epo ed, bu da a on p oduc ion o impo s a e lacking. Some p oblems
seem o ela e o he lack o upda es in he da ase . Fo ins ance, he p oduc ion da a o chips and pa icles
o Indonesia and Fiji ha e ob iously no been upda ed since 2011 (da a s a us “FAO es ima e”), while he
espec i e da a on expo s ha e been e ised annually (da a s a us “FAO o icial”).
The highes nega i e appa en consump ion igu e in 2015 o “chips and pa icles” is ound o
Vie nam (
−
10 Mm
3
). The p oduc ion o chips and pa icles in Vie nam has in he ecen yea s epo ed
(da a s a us “FAO es ima e”) o be cons an a 3.3 Mm
3
, while he expo olumes o o e 12 Mm
3
ha e
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 8 o 17
been epo ed (unde da a s a us “FAO o icial” o “FAO uno icial”). A he same ime, he sawnwood
and plywood p oduc ion needed o gi e chips and pa icles as by-p oduc has no been upda ed, and i
has been epo ed o be below 8 Mm
3
(unde da a s a us “FAO o icial” o “FAO uno icial”). Conside able
gaps in he ne expo s and p oduc ion igu es o chips and pa icles in 2015 a e also gi en (
e.g., o Gambia
,
Indonesia, Mozambique, Singapo e, Sou h A ica, and Thailand) as can be seen in Table 3.
Table 3.
Annual p oduc ions, expo s, impo s, and appa en consump ion o indus ial oundwood
and wood esidues in 2015 and in he pe iod o 2011–2015 on a e age (1000 m
3
). Only coun ies whe e
appa en consump ion in 2015 was <−5000 m3a e shown. C = coni e ous, NC = non-coni e ous.
Coun y P oduc ion Impo s Expo s Consump ion P oduc ion Impo s Expo s Consump ion
2015 2015 2015 2015 2011–2015 2011–2015
2011–2015
2011–2015
Indus ial oundwood C
Cos a Rica 1 15 −14 1 28 −27
Myanma 0 11 −11 0 33 −33
Indus ial oundwood NC
New Zealand 23 3 38 −11 20 4 16 8
Chips and pa icles
Albania 2 37 −35 2 0 32 −30
Bangladesh 0 20 −20 0 20 −20
Congo 0 36 −36 0 145 −144
Fiji 210 0 244 −34 210 0 230 −20
Gambia 0 59 −59 0 25 −25
Indonesia 1788 0 2491 −703 1788 5 2675 −882
Libe ia 0 33 −33 0 101 −101
Libya 0 22 −22 0 22 −22
Mon eneg o 0 16 −16 0 18 −18
Mozambique 0 49 −49 0 10 −10
Papua New Guinea
0 6 −6 0 7 −7
Singapo e 3 160 −157 3 70 −67
Sou h A ica 1926 7 2319 −385 2125 4 2247 −119
Thailand 4239 52 4398 −107 2512 154 4712 −2047
Vie nam 3312 3 13,347 −10,032 3290 106 12,002 −8607
Wood esidues
India 2 12 −10 5 3 2
Laos 1 8 −8 0 7 −7
Mexico 3 21 −18 2 19 −17
Mon eneg o 0 21 −21 0 10 −9
Singapo e 6 29 −23 5 12 −7
3.2. Tes ii: Is he P oduc ion o Chips, Pa icles, and Wood Residues Consis en wi h he P oduc ion o
Solidwood P oduc s?
Table 4shows he coun ies whe e he supply o o es indus y by-p oduc s (chips, pa icles,
and wood esidues) is epo ed o exceed he p oduc ion o solid wood p oduc s in 2015. I also gi es
he espec i e p oduc ion igu es and esul ing a e age heo e ical wood inpu coe icien pe uni o
solid wood p oduc s p oduced.
Fo some coun ies, pa icula ly o Aus alia, he es o “chips and pa icles” p oduc ion, which
equi es ha “p oduc ion o chips and pa icles < p oduc ion o plywood + sawnwood” (column C
compa ed wi h column D in Table 4) sugges s ha his da a migh be w ong. While o en he en ies
ela ed o suspicious da a on chips and pa icles p oduc ion is a ed ‘uno icial’, ha is no he case
wi h Aus alia. Also, o example, I aly and he Ne he lands epo e y high ou pu s o chips and
pa icles compa ed o he p oduc ion o solid wood p oduc s. To jus i y he igu es, he ac i i ies in
ca pen y and o he u he p ocessing o wood ha would p o ide chips and pa icles mus be o
conside able magni ude.
The o al ou pu o chips, pa icles, and wood esidues is e y high compa ed o he epo ed
p oduc ion o solid wood p oduc s in F ance and Thailand. No ably, Thailand seems o ha e con lic ing
p oblems wi h he da a on chips and pa icles p oduc ion. Tes ii sugges s ha he p oduc ion is oo
high compa ed o he p oduc ion o solid wood p oduc s. Ye , es i p oposed ha he p oduc ion
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 9 o 17
is oo low o co e he epo ed expo s. Fo F ance o each he almos 18 Mm
3
di e ence be ween
he p oduc ion o inal ou pu and by-p oduc s (column F in Table 4), i s olume o ac i i ies ela ed
o u he p ocessing o wood o u ni u e and o he p oduc s mus be conside able in o de o he
igu es o be c edible. Fo some coun ies whe e he esul ing igu e o “log use coe icien ” is close
o 2, such as in B azil o Finland, he da a may be ealis ic, because hese coun ies also p oduce
plywood, which can equi e highe wood inpu han sawnwood. Fo ins ance, in Finland, he log
inpu in sawnwood p oduc ion is close o 2, and he use o sawlogs in plywood p oduc ion is abou
2.5 m
3
/m
3
, which means ha somewha high amoun s o esidues can be ob ained as side-p oduc .
Also, in Sweden, he calcula ed log use o 2.1 m
3
pe one cubic me e o solid wood p oduc s could be
ealis ic conside ing ha he use o wood inpu in sawnwood p oduc ion is a he high in Sweden and
ha by-p oduc s a e addi ionally ob ained om u he p ocessing.
Wi hin a wide pe iod o 2011–2016, conside able da a p oblems can be de ec ed (e.g., o Canada,
which is no among he coun ies shown in Table 4 ocusing on he yea 2015).
Table 4.
P oduc ion o solid wood p oduc s (column C), chips and pa icles (D), and wood esidues (E),
hei di e ence (F), and he esul ing coe icien o wood use pe solid wood p oduc ou pu (G, sum o
all ou pu s di ided by he solid wood ou pu ) in yea 2015. The coun ies a e anked acco ding o he
alue in column (F).
Coun y
A B C = a + B D E F = C −D−E G = (C + D + E)/C
Sawn-Wood Venee and
Plywood
Solid Wood
P oduc s
Chips and
Pa icles
Wood
Residues Di e ence Logs Use
Coe icien
1000 m31000 m31000 m31000 m31000 m31000 m3m3/m3
F ance 7514 367 7881 5740 19,920 −17,779 4.26
B azil 14,797 3829 18,626 11,788 19,140 −12,302 2.66
Aus alia 5085 296 5381 13,962 2577 −11,158 4.07
Thailand 2850 305 3155 4239 8200 −9284 4.94
Poland 4835 445 5280 3178 6500 −4398 2.83
I aly 1470 446 1916 4800 −2884 3.51
Po ugal 1134 80 1214 1275 2331 −2392 3.97
Chile 8372 1494 9866 10,208 1916 −2257 2.23
Sweden 18,174 95 18,269 9965 10,175 −1871 2.10
Finland 10,640 1207 11,847 8341 5314 −1807 2.15
Ne he lands 185 185 899 808 −1522 10.22
Es onia 1770 164 1935 1870 1155 −1090 2.56
Spain 2453 489 2942 1856 1846 −760 2.26
Mali 130 27 157 480 400 −723 6.61
Li huania 1248 111 1359 1162 774 −577 2.42
Sudan 11 11 383 106 −478 45.45
Luxembou g
78 78 422 99 −443 7.65
El Sal ado 16 16 457 −441 29.04
Sou h A ica 1966 97 2063 1926 450 −314 2.15
La ia 3479 280 3759 2513 1549 −303 2.08
Slo enia 725 98 823 300 800 −277 2.34
Fiji 130 20 150 210 −60 2.40
Colombia 450 55 505 194 354 −43 2.08
Geo gia 76 5 81 121 −40 2.49
Nica agua 62 62 80 −18 2.29
U uguay 487 218 705 716 4 −15 2.02
3.3. Tes iii: Can he Appa en Wood Consump ion Le els Sus ain he Repo ed P oduc ion o Fo es
Indus y P oduc s
3.3.1. Case o Sawlogs and Venee Logs Use o P oduc ion o Sawnwood, Plywood, and Venee
Table 5displays he de ici o sawlogs and enee logs epo ed in he da a o he pe iod o
2011–2015 o coun ies wi h such de ici s being la ge han 50,000 m
3
in 2015. The able also gi es he
heo e ically maximal appa en logs inpu (m
3
/m
3
) o he epo ed solid wood p oduc ion. I can
be ega ded o be maximal, because when calcula ing he de ici in he olume o logs used, i was
gene ously assumed ha all indus ial oundwood impo s bu none o he expo s a e sawlogs and
Fo es s 2018,9, 407 16 o 17
in se e al coun ies. a lack o eliable o icial da a om some egions is ob ious. As hese eely
a ailable s a is ics p o ide aluable in o ma ion o a wide ange o businesses, media, policy making,
and scien i ic analyses, i would be o u mos impo ance o u he imp o e he da a, despi e he many
challenges aced.
Meanwhile, when using he cu en FAOSTAT o es y da a, one should, like wi h any da a,
be cau ious. Fo ins ance, i wood inpu coe icien s and demand unc ions o o es indus y p oduc s
employed in a o es sec o model a e calib a ed o ma ch hese da a while igno ing he inconsis encies
in he da a, he model esul s a e doomed o ca y on hese e o s in p ojec ions o u u e supply,
demand, and p ices o o es p oduc s. Likewise, he cu en ly a ailable da a do no o m a eliable
basis o calcula ing he de elopmen o he s ock o ha es ed wood p oduc s needed in ca bon s ock
accoun ing o all coun ies.
Supplemen a y Ma e ials:
The ollowing a e a ailable online a h p://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/9/7/407/s1,
Supplemen a y File S1: Da a o e e ence inpu coe icien s (excel- ile), Supplemen a y File S2: Desc ip ion o he
LP model (wo d.doc), Supplemen a y File S3: Addi ional esul s om he es s (excel- ile).
Au ho Con ibu ions:
A.M.I.K. was esponsible o he p oblem o mula ion, da a p epa a ion, so wa e used in
he analysis, and he i s analysis and d a p epa a ion o he manusc ip . B.S. pa icipa ed in he analysis o he
esul s and he co-w i ing o he manusc ip and was also mainly esponsible o unding acquisi ion.
Funding:
The esea ch leading o hese esul s was unded by he o es sec o modeling pa o he esea ch
p ojec s o FORMIT (“Fo es Managemen o he Mi iga ion po en ial o Eu opean o es s”— inanced by he EU’s
7 h Resea ch P og am as p ojec no. 311970) and POLYFORES (“Decision-making Suppo o Fo es Ecosys em
Se ices in Eu ope—Value Assessmen , Syne gy E ec s and T ade-o s”, inanced by he EU’s p og am FP7
ERA_NET Sum o es ).
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
Re e ences
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2018 by he au ho s. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land. This a icle is an open access
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(CC BY) license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/).