Economic Well-being and Suppo o he EC
Agus í BOSCH
Uni e si a Au ònoma de Ba celona
Wo king Pape n.69
Ba celona 1993
I. INTRODUCTION
Since he mis s o ime, poli ical ins i u ions ha e s i en o hei legi imacy.
On he one hand, ins i u ions may a ain his backing h ough people's uncondi ional
a achmen o he na ion, eligion o lag which he ins i u ion claims o ep esen .
On he o he hand, ins i u ions may y o ge he blessing o hei people
h ough he appeal o he ewa ds which he ins i u ion may p o ide. Following his
line o a gumen , he basic conce n o he p esen chap e will be how he me e
ecogni ion ha he EC is a ewa ding ins i u ion is u ned in o a mo e c ys alised
o m o legi imacy o he EC. I will call his p ocess 'u ili a ian suppo '.
Clea ly, his does no mean ha he i s line o a gumen is ain, o ha
allegiance o he na ion, eligion o o he a ec i e ac o s do no wo k o legi ima e
ce ain poli ical ins i u ions. I jus means ha examining such a possibili y is he ask
o o he p ojec s.
U ili a ian Suppo
A p ocess o con e sion o ewa ds in o suppo o he EC has been
hypo hesised be o e and he concep 'u ili a ian suppo ' has been widely used in he
li e a u e -e.g. Lindbe g and Scheingold (1970, p. 40) and Shephe d (1975, ch. 5).
Mo e ecen ly, i has been alluded by Rei and Ingleha (1991, p. 7) as he ou come
o 'a calcula ed app aisal o he immedia e cos s and bene i s o membe ship in he
Communi y'. The common immedia e o igin o hose is Eas on's concep o 'speci ic
suppo ' (c . Eas on, 1975).
I will be use ul o keep in mind he exis ence o a di e ence be ween he
a iable which ac s as he cause o he p ocess ( he ewa ds) om he p ocess i sel
( he u ili a ian suppo ) because a 'mis ake which is o en made is ha complex
p ocesses a e desc ibed and labelled as single a iables' (Sa is and S onkho s ,
1984, p. 12). This e o is a oo common. One o i s nume ous illus a ions is e iden
in Hews one (1986, p. 157) when he a gues ha B i ain displays a low u ili a ian
suppo meaning ins ead ha he pe cep ion o ewa ds is sca ce.
The e ha e been se e al p eceden s o he hypo hesis o u ili a ian suppo in
neighbou ing disciplines as well. Indeed, he heo y o Eu opean in eg a ion has
claimed ha some so o ecogni ion o ewa ds will p ecede any o he eeling o a
mo e endu ing legi imacy (c . Shephe d, 1975, ch. 6; and Hews one, 1986, p. 43).
Social psychology would hypo hesise such a p ocess, oo. This is elegan ly pu by
Hews one (1986, p. 60) claiming ha 'people de elop a ou able a i udes owa ds
objec s ha a e ewa ding and un a ou able a i udes owa ds objec s ha a e
un ewa ding'.
Once i has been es ablished ha my objec o s udy is ha ype o suppo
which is caused by he popula ecogni ion ha he EC p o ides ce ain ewa ds, he
ob ious con o e sy is which so o ewa ds a e we e e ing o -since he EC migh
deli e ou comes o a ema kably di e se cha ac e . The e is a g ea di e ence
be ween, on he one hand, ecei ing a payo in e ms o money, o on he o he
hand, ecei ing ewa ds such as poli ical ones (e.g. he p ese a ion o democ acy i
endange ed), diploma ic ones (e.g. in e na ional p es ige) o many o he s.
A his s age, i seems easonable o di e en ia e hose ewa ds o an s ic
economic na u e om hose which a e non-economic. Needless o say, bo h kinds o
ewa ds a e wo h analysing, bu limi a ions inhe en o all esea ch e o s as well as
he wo k dis ibu ion in he g oup would ad ise o make a choice be ween he wo.
Al hough any choice impo e ishes he scope o he esea ch, i also o e s he
ad an age o hema ic homogenei y, because only one kind o a iable (ei he only
economic o only non-economic) will ha e o be conside ed.
My choice o his chap e is o concen a e on economic ewa ds, lea ing
non-economic ewa ds o u he esea ch. This delimi a ion o e s h ee in e es ing
ad an ages.
Fi s , he economic unde pinnings o any u ili a ian delibe a ion -al hough
hey a e no he only ones- a e clea ly o p ima y impo ance, hus becoming
una oidable in any u ili a ian analysis. In his sense, Dal on and Eichenbe g (1990, p.
3) a gue ha 'a he base o any (…) u ili a ian model o public suppo o he
Eu opean Communi y mus be conside a ions abou i s economic pe o mance'.
Following he same line o a gumen , o Rei and Ingleha (1991, p. 7) u ili a ian
suppo may con ain se e al di e en ype o ewa ds 'wi h economic ou pu s being
he mos ob ious ype and pe haps he mos widely app ecia ed one'.
Second, economic ewa ds a e less con o e sial han non-economic ones.
E en a ional choice heo y -mas e in dealing wi h ewa ds- has ound p oblema ic
he ex ension o hei ield om economic ewa ds o hose o a di e en na u e. Fo
ins ance, Belluci (1991, p. 67) a gues ha 'since he a ional ac o model o o ing
beha iou is a gene al one, i s ange o applicabili y co e s bo h economic and
non-economic u ili ies. While he e is much discussion wi h he assump ion o
indi idual a ionali y applied o non-economic in e es s, he e a e ewe ques ions
abou indi idual a ionali y wi h espec o economic u ili ies'.
Thi d, he na ow de ini ion o he ewa ds in e ms o s ic economic payo s
p ecludes a dange ous au ology (which is oo common in a ional choice s udies):
aking in o accoun ewa ds o di e se na u e may lead o seeing any eason
(mani es o implici ) o suppo o he EC as a ewa d -and hus, he suppo o he
EC would be u ili a ian almos by de ini ion. A cogen c i ique o such an e o is gi en
by Hews one (1986, p. 41-42) whe e he objec s o he a gumen ha any su ey
ques ion abou ag eemen wi h membe ship o he EC e lec s a u ili a ian a i ude
gi en i s e alua i e na u e.
Economic Suppo
Following he easoning so a , economic suppo is ha suppo o he EC
which is caused by he pe cep ion o economic ewa ds.
A a la e s age, I am going o di e en ia e he economic elemen s I am
e e ing o. Fo he momen , le me jus s a e ha e en ually I may e e o bo h
economic bene i s di ec ly de i ed om membe ship, as well as he mo e indi ec
imp o emen in economic condi ions in membe -s a es; which may be app op ia ed
bo h by p i a e indi iduals as well as by he membe -s a es; which may be de i ed
bo h om objec i e economic ewa ds as well as om i s subjec i e assessmen s;
and which may e e bo h o he bene i s om he pas as well as o he expec a ions
o he bene i s o he u u e.
The hypo hesis ha he e is a ela ionship be ween he economic bene i s
ecei ed om he EC and suppo o i , is no pa icula ly new -and p obably i is
e en 'popula knowledge'. Indeed, all saloon-ba philosophe s 'know' ha he I alian
ne bene i is wha p oduces hei en husiasm and he B i ish bu den is esponsible
o hei eluc ance.
Ingleha gi es us a clea economic hypo hesis when he a i ms ha
' a ou able economic payo s a e conduci e o -and pe haps e en essen ial o- he
p ocesses o na ional and sup ana ional in eg a ion' (Ingleha , 1978, p. 69; and
li e ally epea ed in Rei and Ingleha , 1991, p. 7). He also a gues (in Hews one,
1986, p. x i) ha expe ience in Eu opean in eg a ion has shown ha peoples can be
won unde a ou able economic condi ions. Following he same economically d i en
a gumen , Handley (1981, p. 335) claims ha a c isis o suppo o he EC was
de i ed om he economic c isis o he 1970s, bu subsequen ly ' o mos o he
a eas, he downwa d end was e e sed du ing he pe iod, p obably due la gely o
imp o emen s in he economic ecession'.
E en in eg a ion heo y (which is no pa icula ly a en i e o he ole o public
opinion in he p ocess o in eg a ion) claims ha economic ewa ds a e e y
impo an o he p ocess o in eg a ion. Nye (1971, p. 83-84) poin s o he impo ance
o he pe cep ion o he dis ibu ion o economic bene i s o he p og ess o he
in eg a ion p ocess.
The common hesis o all hese e e ences, and which will cons i u e my
basic hypo heses is ha economic well-being exe cises an in luence on suppo o
he EC. This connec ion has been hypo hesised also in o ing s udies, and he e is
some ag eemen (see Ra inge , 1991, p. 50) ha he causal chain may o igina e in
one o he wo ollowing: ei he pe sonal di ec expe ience wi h he economy, o he
ole o economic well-being as a poli ical issue.
In he i s case, pe sonal expe ience wi h ce ain economic condi ions, such
as unemploymen o in la ion, may lead o blame he EC o hem ( u he discussion
on his poin in sec ion ou ). Also, economic bene i s om B ussels, such as egional
g an s o aid o he ag icul u e, may be di ec ly expe ienced and a consequen
a i ude may be aken.
In he second case, he majo i y o hese economic a iables a e unknown o
he gene al public. Only i s discussion as a poli ical issue h ough poli ical eli es and
on he media can ake hose economic a iables o he gene al public so people
place hemsel es wi h espec o he EC. A his s age, i is i ele an o me which o
hese wo pa hs he causal connec ion ollows. I a ela ionship was ound, he causal
connec ion would be subsequen ly discussed.
Plan o he Chap e
Following om he poin s made so a , h ee condi ions ha e o be ul illed i
we a e o speak o economic in luence o e he suppo o he EC. Th ee main
ques ions will ha e o be add essed in he chap e .
1. Is he EC seen as an ins i u ion dealing wi h, economics? and i so, wha
le el o in luence is i seen o ha e on economic well-being? I his i s ques ion was
no answe ed posi i ely, any economic basis o suppo o he EC (empi ically ound
a e wa ds) would be di icul o jus i y. We would ha e o ace a cu ious pa adox. On
he one hand, his economic basis o suppo we a e e e ing o, would imply ha he
EC seems o be judged acco ding o he economic consequences i p oduces. Bu on
he o he hand, he un ul illmen o he i s condi ion would indica e ha ci izens
belie e ha EC policies ha e no hing o do wi h hei own economic ci cums ances.
How could anybody judge an ins i u ion acco ding o i s economic
consequences, and a he same ime, belie e ha his ins i u ion has no signi ica i e
economic consequences?
2. Does he le el o suppo o he EC in he di e en membe -s a es un
pa allel o (a) changes in he economic bene i s ecei ed om he EC and/o (b)
changes in he mac o-economic condi ions? I he e was no e idence o a

ela ionship wi h any o he p e ious economic a iables, no economic ounda ion o
suppo o he EC would be de ensible.
3. Do indi iduals which pe cei e high le els o economic bene i s om
membe ship, suppo he EC mo e han hose who do no ? I he e was no an
indi idual le el co espondence, be ween economic bene i s and suppo o he EC,
hen he p e ious indings in (2) would be me ely he esul o an ecological allacy –
i.e. he exis ence o egula i ies a high le els o agg ega ion which a e inexis en a
lowe le els o agg ega ion.
E en ually, I may add a ou h ques ion, which is: i i so happens ha suppo
o he EC is ela ed o pe cep ions o bene i s, in which causal di ec ion does his
ela ionship wo k?.
The i s ques ion is add essed in he nex sec ion -' he economic image o
he EU'.
The second ques ion had wo pa s and hey a e consequen ly analysed in
wo di e en ia ed sec ions. One o hem asked abou he co espondence h ough
ime o he le el o suppo o he EC and he change in he economic bene i s
de i ed om membe ship o he EC. Sec ion 3 e i ies he exis ence o such a
co espondence. The second pa o he ques ion asked abou he co espondence
h ough ime o le el o suppo o he EC and he change in he economic condi ions
in he membe -s a es. This one is deal wi h in sec ion 4.
The hi d ques ion is examined in sec ion ou , which deals wi h he
indi idual-le el analyses o he ela ionship be ween suppo o he EC and he
pe cep ions (and expec a ions) o bene i s o membe ship.
II. THE ECONOMIC IMAGE OF THE EC
As I ha e s a ed, o he le el o suppo o membe ship o be sensi i e o
changes in economic well-being, one o he necessa y condi ions is ha he EC has
o be pe cei ed as ela ed o economics.
The li e a u e would seem o back his condi ion. Fo ins ance, Dal on and
Eichenbe g (1990, p. 3) a i m ha ' he EC is i s and o emos an economic
communi y. The goals, ac i i ies and iden i y o he Communi y a e s ill la gely
de ined in e ms o i s economic policies' and hey lucidly go on o e e o a esea ch
by Dal on and Du al which ound ha six y pe cen o p ess co e age abou he EC
in B i ain e e ed o economic ma e s. Taking in o accoun all ha , i seems
easonable ha he EC is pe cei ed as an ins i u ion which deals wi h economics.
Tha he EC has a p ima ily economic image would ha dly look su p ising,
aking in o accoun ha he EC has deal basically wi h economic policies, and also
conside ing i s o me name 'Eu opean Economic Communi y'.
Howe e , he p eceden s in he li e a u e do no p eclude a mo e empi ical
examina ion. We should be able o es he p oposi ion ha , among la ge numbe s o
people, he EC has he image o an ins i u ion which deals wi h economics. This
should no mean ha people see any o he ac i i y as alien o he EC (I would also
expec i o be seen as engaged in in e na ional poli ics, o ins ance) bu simply ha
economics is ecognised as one o i s p ima y compe ences.
Fo una ely, he Eu oba ome e Se ies (EB 27) p o ides us wi h an
open-ended ques ion abou wha image does he EC b ing o people's minds.
Open-ended ques ions a e ema kably use ul o ques ions such as he p esen one,
in which we a e in e es ed in he unconscious eac ion a concep ( he EC) igge s in
people's minds.
Table1
The i s esul which ca ches he eye in Table 1 is ha he linkage o he EC
wi h economics is ce ainly widesp ead among he peoples o he EC. Mo e han 30%
o he sample ga e spon aneous economic images (such as hose ela ing o he
cos s and bene i s which membe ship p oduces on hei coun y o on hemsel es,
answe s abou he CAP, o abou o he common policies) compa ed wi h less han
20% who answe ed in e ms o poli ical images (such as images ela ing o in e nal
poli ical p ocesses in he EC, in e na ional ela ions, o undamen al goals and
alues).
Pa icula a en ion should be paid o he ac ha hal he G eeks
immedia ely ela ed he EC o some economic aspec , ollowed by mo e han one
hi d o he I ish, B i ish and Ge mans who did he same. Mo e han a qua e did so
in I aly, Po ugal, Spain, Denma k and F ance. Only among he Belgians (19%),
Luxembou ge s (17%), and Du ch (22%) he s eng h o he economic images is
weak enough o be o e aken by he highe pe cen ages o hose who ci ed poli ical
images.
Among he economic images o he EC is wo h unde lining wo dominan
endencies: i s ly, he newcome s (G eece, Spain and Po ugal) display a e y high
endency o ela e he EC o he cos s and bene i s which membe ship p oduces (o
is likely o p oduce) in hei own coun ies; and second, he CAP is he i s hink o
come o he minds o a subs an ial pe cen age o he B i ish people.
All hese esul s would seem o con i m he hypo hesis ha he EC is seen as
an economic ins i u ion. Howe e , i is wo h s essing ha he economic image o he
EC anks only second a e he lack o any speci ic image abou he EC. Indeed,
abou 40% o he sample, ei he did no answe he ques ion o ga e a neu al
desc ip ion o he EC -a neu al desc ip ion which, acco ding o he code s 'does no
go beyond a gene al " ansla ion" o Eu opean Communi y' o some synonymous
e m (Eu oba ome e no. 27, p. 4). This makes me hink ha al hough he esul s
seem p omising o my economic hypo heses, he lack o knowledge and he low
saliency o he EC may pu obs acles in he way o my wo k.
Fu he e idence o he dominan economic image o he EC is gi en by a
ques ion abou he mos s iking de elopmen which has happened in he EC since
i s incep ion (EB 27).
Among he wel e, he choice o mo e han hal o he people o he mos
s iking de elopmen ela es o economic issues -such as ood, egional di e gence,
unemploymen and ee ade. This elega es o a second posi ion he ba e y o
poli ical issues: 'de elopmen o coope a ion and us be ween coun ies ha ha e
been in con lic h oughou hei his o y' (which, howe e , anks i s i I do no
collapse he eigh possible choices in o he wo ca ego ies -economic and poli ical),
he equen consul a ion be ween he go e nmen s o he wel e, and he se ing o
common EC ins i u ions.
Table2
I eland, B i ain and Denma k display he highes emphasis on de elopmen s
o an economic ype. Con e sely, he economic and poli ical de elopmen s a e mo e
balanced in Ge many, due o he ex ao dina y emphasis on he issue o ' us among
pas enemies'. Luxembou g ollows a pa e n simila o he Ge man one -jus mo e
ma ked. Spain and Po ugal -somehow diso ien ed by a ques ion no e y meaning ul
o hem- es ain hemsel es o display ex ao dina y le els o non esponse.
Among he economic de elopmen s, he ood su pluses a e especially
o e s essed in Denma k and he Ne he lands, and especially in B i ain; whe eas he
ea o unemploymen due o compe i ion is especially no iced in I eland.
S ill, some mo e da a gi e a clea e image o he ela i e s eng h o
economic and poli ical images o he EC. Asked abou wha b ings EC coun ies
oge he (EB 27), he wo equally dominan answe s in he wel e we e 'economic
links' and ' he making o wo ld peace' -bo h men ioned by wo ou o i e o hose
in e iewed. This esul poin s again o he double na u e o he EC, engaged bo h in
economics and in in e na ional poli ics. Besides he g ea balance be ween he wo,
economic links a e seen as he p ima y bond in Holland, Belgium, F ance and
Po ugal; wo ld peace is seen as pi o al in he EC o he Ge mans, he B i ish, and
he I ish; whe eas he Danes, Luxembou ge s, I alians, Spania ds, and G eeks keep
he balance be ween he wo.
Table3
The conclusion ha can be d awn om hese da a is ha as hypo hesised,
he economic image o he EC is common among he publics o he wel e. Howe e ,
wo main wa nings ha e o be s essed. Fi s ly, he EC does no only ha e he image
s a ed abo e, bu i also gi es he gene alised imp ession o an ins i u ion dealing
wi h in e na ional poli ics. The hold ha ei he o hese images o he EC has, is jus a
ques ion o deg ee. Secondly, al hough he economic image is widesp ead, qui e
o en he p edominan iew is p ecisely he lack o any image abou i .
Despi e hese ca ea s, he hypo hesis would seem e i ied. The impo ance
o his poin o he economic hypo hesis is undamen al, since i is mo e likely ha
people a e in luenced by he economic pe o mance o an ins i u ion when his
ins i u ion is seen as economically ela ed a he han when i is no . In a sense, he
economic image o he EC p epa es he ield o i s economic e alua ion.
III. THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM THE EC
As s a ed in he plan o he chap e , he nex wo necessa y equi emen s o
he e i ica ion o he economic ype o suppo a e (a) suppo o membe ship in he
membe -s a es has o be sensi i e h ough ime o changes in he economic bene i s
ecei ed om he EC; and/o (b) suppo o membe ship in he membe -s a es has o
be sensi i e h ough ime o changes in he mac oeconomic condi ions. This sec ion
will deal wi h he e i ica ion o he i s hypo hesis, lea ing he second one o he
nex sec ion.
The unds which he popula ion ecei es om he EC in he o m o expenses
such as g an s in ag icul u e o egional aid is al eady subs an i e. The EC spen a
o al o a ound ECU 50,000 million a yea a he beginning o he p esen decade,
and i is inc easing yea by yea . These so o e enues -as well as he con ibu ions
o each coun y o he budge - would be impo an enough o in luence one's opinion
abou he EC i (and his is a big i ) people we e awa e o hem. Con on ed wi h my
objec ion ha people a e no awa e o hese magni udes, some may a gue ha
awa eness is no eally necessa y -as I will show below. Being as i we e, i may be
a gued ha a ela ionship could exis be ween hese economic magni udes and a
consequen a i ude owa ds he EC.
Fo each coun y I could es ima e one ime se ies model which would ela e
ma ke p o ides -and he EC (pa ly) ge s bo h he blame and he p aise o i .
As in he p e ious sec ion, an ob ious c i icism agains hese indings is
based on he limi ed knowledge which he man-in- he-s ee may ha e abou hose
mac o-economic magni udes. Once again, he c i ique goes: i people do no know
hese da a, how could hey be in luenced by hem? And once again he answe is
ha an in e ening a iable migh be he link be ween he wo. This indi ec p ocess
consis s o a i s phase in which he mac oeconomic condi ions may in luence
people ( h ough in o med eli es and he media) o c ea e ce ain pe cep ions o he
economic condi ions; and only in a second phase, hese pe cep ions o he economic
condi ions will p oduce suppo o membe ship.
Ano he possible c i icism is also pa allel o ha e ealed in he p e ious
sec ion: i bo h sides o he equa ion we e con inuously inc easing du ing ha pe iod,
he esul s could e lec jus ha common end, and no an in luence o one o e he
o he . Some es s we e ca ied ou (see again Bosch 1992) o check whe he he
alluded esul s we e o no a i ac ual. In his case, he esul s o he es s we e
sligh ly di e en , since he ole o he unemploymen a e seems o ha e some well
es ablished subs an ial in luence, and no jus a i ac ual. The emaining a iables did
no succeed in he es s.
The e o e, besides he in luence o he unemploymen a e, I canno display
any e idence o an alleged in luence o he mac o-economic condi ions o e he
a i udes owa ds he EC. This is he eason why Table 5 only displays he second
phase o he model: i shows he esul s o one ime se ies analysis o each coun y,
which ela es suppo o membe ship (as a dependen a iable) o he pe cep ion o
economic condi ions (as an independen a iable), also called "economic
e alua ions".
Table5
The esul s displayed on Table 5 look a he gloomy. A i s g oup o
adi ionally eu o-skep ical coun ies (B i ain, Denma k, G eece) show no signi ican
ela ionship be ween he pe cep ion o mac o-economic condi ions and he suppo
o he EC -o he ela ionship is in he opposed di ec ion. I would p esume ha he
model ails because, in hese coun ies, he esponsibili y o he economic condi ions
is no a ibu ed o he EC -which was a condi ion o he model.
A second g oup o coun ies which show no signi ican ela ionship be ween
he pe cep ion o mac o-economic condi ions and he suppo o he EC, is
cons i u ed by F ance, Spain and Po ugal. These coun ies we e p e iously
classi ied as 'non-u ili a ian' because hey igno ed ce ain economic a iables in o de
o o m hei a i ude owa ds he EC. I would p esume ha he model ails in hese

coun ies due o a mo e endu ing absence o economic mo i a ions in he o ma ion
o hei a i udes o he EC.
A hi d g oup is cons i u ed by he emaining coun ies: Belgium, Ge many,
I eland, I aly and he Ne he lands. The esul s o hese coun ies show ei he e y
modes le els o signi icance (Ge many), o low explica i e powe (I aly,
Ne he lands).
The e o e, he only no iceable ela ionship ound in his sec ion is a ce ain
in luence o he unemploymen a e o e suppo o he EC. Howe e , his in luence
does no seem o ope a e h ough he economic e alua ions o he people, and hus,
i possibly has no hing o do wi h s ic ly economic mo i a ions. I is mo e likely ha
he unemploymen ope a es h ough a di use sense o gene al op imism o
pessimism: a so o ' eel-good' ac o (3).
Besides he ambiguous ole o he unemploymen a e, I ha e o d aw he
conclusion ha no o he in luence o he mac oeconomic condi ions o e suppo o
he EC was i mly es ablished. The e o e, he hypo hesis submi ed o e i ica ion in
his sec ion did no seem o succeed he es .
V. THE PERCEPTION OF BENEFITS
The longi udinal analyses in oduced in he wo p eceding sec ions p esen ed
se e al p oblems which ha e o be add essed in his sec ion. Fi s o all, he e was
he ques ion o con i ming he indings o he longi udinal sec ion. I such con i ma ion
was no ull, he possibili y o ecological allacy would be mos likely. Second o all,
he ole o he pe cep ion o economic bene i s om membe ship was seen as pi o al
bu a ques ion emained open abou he di ec ion o he ela ionship be ween his
pe cep ion and he suppo o membe ship.
Add essing he i s ques ion, Table 6 displays he o dinal co ela ions
(compu ed a indi idual le el) be ween he pe cep ion o bene i s om membe ship
and suppo o membe ship a wo ecen poin s in ime.
Table6
The da a seem o con i m he indings om he las sec ion -displayed on
Table 4. Some coun ies like Denma k, B i ain, I eland and G eece, show a e y
s ong connec ion be ween he wo a iables, con i ming he indings o he p e ious
sec ion. O he coun ies, like I aly, F ance, and specially Spain, show a much lowe
co espondence, o he ex en ha some o he co ela ions a e no s a is ically
signi ican . The e olu ion o hese da a o some selec ed coun ies in he second hal
o he 1980s is shown in Figu es 1 and 2.
The igu es make clea ha mos coun ies e idence a ema kable s abili y.
The coun ies which we e mo e u ili a ian-o ien ed (Denma k, I eland, B i ain and
G eece) s ay a he op o Figu e 1, o he whole pe iod; whe eas hose which a e
less so, keep a he bo om. Only wo oddi ies a e e iden . Po ugal ca ches up wi h
he mo e u ili a ian-minded coun ies, a e a e y sho pe iod o adap a ion. Spain
s ays a he bo om o he league, a inc edibly low le els. Al hough a ce ain ise is
e iden o he las h ee yea s, i does no seem likely ha i may lea e ha posi ion
e en a e a pe iod o adap a ion(4).
Su ely, i has no gone unno iced o he eade ha a ce ain egula i y is
e iden in his classi ica ion o coun ies. The eu o-skep ic coun ies end o be mo e
u ili a ian-minded, whe eas he mo e p o-EC coun ies end o be less so. This is due
o he ac ha ce ain sec ions in he mo e p o-EC coun ies suppo membe ship
e en when hey do no pe cei e bene i s om i -an a i ude which is only easible
whe e he EC is accep ed by a so o na ional consensus.
Despi e he e idence shown, he ela ionship is s ill con o e ible. Indeed, i
may be a gued ha , al hough he da a con i m he connec ion be ween he wo
a iables, he causal a ow may wo k he o he way a ound -i.e. i is no ha hey a e
p o-ma ke ee s because hey ha e pe cei ed economic bene i s, bu a he ha his
e y pe cep ion o bene i s is he consequence o a p e-exis en sympa he ic
e alua ion o he EC.
The issue o he di ec ion o causali y is one o hose e e nal p oblems in he
social sciences -and, in mos occasions, i is also unsol able. I is his inde e mina ion
ha would make me a ou he exis ence o a wo-way ein o cing p ocess o
in e ac ion, a he han a one-di ec ion causal in luence.
Causal modelling is one echnique which is able o help in simila deba es. I
may gi e a hin on he ecip ocal ela ionship be ween wo a iables (e.g. pe cep ion
o bene i s and suppo o membe ship) p o ided ha enough an eceden s o each
a iable may be ound which a e easonably independen -in i s meaning- om he
o he a iable. The e o e, I plan o add ess he ques ion o he di ec ion o causali y,
in u he esea ch, by he use o causal modelling.
Al hough a ela ionship is p o en be ween he pe cep ion o bene i s om
membe ship and he suppo o membe ship, he pa icula na u e o his ela ionship
is s ill unclea . A u he p oblem o his pa icula ela ionship, which his sec ion will
ha e o add ess, e e s o i s ime dimension.
So a I ha e assumed ha he a iable which ma e ed was he pe cep ion o
pas economic bene i s om membe ship. Thus, he model had a clea ly
e ospec i e con en . Howe e , his is no he only possibili y. In ac , o ing s udies
ha e long discussed he e ospec i e e sus p ospec i e dicho omy (Al , 1984;
Fio ina, 1978 and 1981, and Chappel and Keech, 1985) o ind ha p ospec i e
speci ica ions end o be mo e powe ul han e ospec i e ones. They end o
assume a mo e a ional beha iou as well: why should people eac o pas bene i s?
A e all, pas is pas ! Fu u e bene i s, on he con a y, a e some hing wo h eac ing
o.
Following his line o a gumen , I will es a new hypo hesis wi h a clea
p ospec i e con en . I will use he expec a ions o u u e bene i s om membe ship
-ins ead o pe cep ions o pas bene i s- as a p edic o o suppo o membe ship.
Un o una ely, he expec a ions o bene i s om membe ship ha e only been
assessed in e y speci ic poin s in ime. I only ha e hese so o da a o wo
coun ies (Spain and Po ugal), and only a one poin in ime (Au umn 1985 -jus
be o e hei accession). I is, a leas , a p opi ious momen o such a ques ion.
Table7
Table 7 displays how ag eemen wi h membe ship ela ed o he expec a ions
o economic bene i s om membe ship in hose coun ies.
The e idence e eal how such a ela ionship is e y s ong in bo h coun ies.
Indeed, in his p ospec i e analysis, he alues o he co ela ions a e much highe
han in he p e ious e ospec i e one.
In he se ies o e ospec i e co ela ions which we e showed on Table 6,
Po ugal did no display such high co ela ions un il Au umn 1988. These p ospec i e
co ela ions p esen such high alues e en be o e en y! The Spanish case is e en
mo e sa is ac o y: he high alue achie ed by he p ospec i e co ela ion jus be o e
en y, has no been eached by he e ospec i e co ela ions e en a e yea s and
yea s o s eady inc ease.
In conclusion, I could s a e ha he expec a ion o economic bene i s seems
o be a much mo e e ec i e p edic o o suppo o membe ship han he pe cep ion
o pas bene i s. Is his jus ano he o m o economic p edominance? The ollowing
pa ag aphs elucida e why such a possibili y does no seem likely.
In he same su ey in which he newcome s we e asked abou he economic
bene i s which hey expec ed om membe ship, hey we e also asked abou he
bene i s which hey expec ed membe ship would ha e on (a) he unc ioning o
democ acy in hei coun y and (b) he ole o hei coun y in he wo ld. The da a o
he h ee ypes o expec a ions (economic, poli ical and diploma ic) we e, a he
simila - he only di e ence being an sligh ly mo e posi i e ou look on he wo la e .
Mo eo e , he h ee expec a ions exe cise a a he simila in luence o e suppo o
membe ship.
Table8
Table 8 displays he h ee co esponden co ela ions which a e -in bo h
coun ies- much highe han he e ospec i e co ela ions epo ed in Figu e 2. Thus,
no only expec a ions o economic bene i s, bu also expec a ions o poli ical and
diploma ic bene i s, a e mo e e ec i e p edic o s o suppo o membe ship han he
pe cep ion o pas bene i s.
How o in e p e his inding? One in e p e a ion is in line wi h o ing s udies:
p ospec i e models a e mo e e ec i e han e ospec i e ones because, as
economis s a gue, 'bygones a e o e e bygone'. This in e p e a ion accoun s o he
ac ha economic expec a ions abou he u u e exe cise a mo e powe ul in luence
han economic pe cep ions o he pas . Howe e , i does no accoun o he also
success ul in luence which poli ical and diploma ic expec a ions seem o exe cise.
Ano he in e p e a ion would s a e ha he h ee expec a ions a e, in ac , he
mani es a ion o a common la en ac o in hose coun ies. This la en ac o would
be a so o non-speci ic expec a ion o all so o bene i s om membe ship. I e e o
a a he messianic us ha he EC would p o ide hem wi h he much needed
solu ion o all so o p oblems o hose coun ies.
The backing o his in e p e a ion is ha he h ee expec a ions display e y
high co ela ions among hem: 0.80, 0.73 and 0.91 o Spain; and 0.87, 0.84 and 0.87
o Po ugal (also a con i ma o y ac o analysis o he Spanish case con i med ha
he h ee expec a ions may be he mani es a ion o such a la en ac o - owa ds
which hey would main ain co ela ions highe han 0.9).
VI. CONCLUSIONS
In o de o ecapi ula e he indings o his pape , I should say ha , e en
hough a subs an ial pa o he popula ion sees he EC as an economic ins i u ion,
he p e ension o ind an economic basis o he suppo o he EC has been e used.
This could well be because an e en mo e subs an ial pa o he popula ion has a
much mo e di use image o he EC. Nei he he economic bene i s ecei ed di ec ly
om B ussels, no he objec i e economic condi ions o he coun y, seem o ha e
oo much in luence on he a i udes owa ds he EC. Only he e olu ion o he
unemploymen a e may be seen as a dange o he suppo o he EC.
Al hough he e olu ion o he objec i e economy seems o be alien o he
suppo o he EC, he mo e subjec i e pe cep ion o ecei ing bene i s om he EC
is ce ainly ela ed o i . Pa icula ly, in he mo e skep ical coun ies, his a iable is an
almos pe ec p edic o o suppo o he EC. On he con a y, in adi ionally
suppo i e coun ies, a pa o he suppo seems o be alien o his u ili a ian
conside a ion.
Going om ecapi ula ion o discussion, I wan o in oduce se e al issues o
e lec ion. One o he i s s udies on a i udes owa ds he EC is help ul o in oduce
my i s poin o e lec ion. Shephe d (1975, p. 99) wonde ed whe he , once
con on ed wi h he EC op ion, people may accep pe sonal losses in o de o achie e
na ional economic imp o emen s. Al hough such a ques ion may ha dly be in
people's minds, i unde lines a dilemma in he economic na u e o he a i udes
owa ds he EC: do hese p ocess o o ma ion o he a i udes ollow a c i e ion o
indi idual bene i s, o a c i e ion o collec i e bene i s?
Following an adap a ion o he concep s used in he s udies o economic
o ing, I could s a e ha 'pocke book suppo ' o he EC would exis i , o he
se lemen o one's posi ion owa ds he EC, he subjec akes in o accoun only hose
economic ewa ds which may bene i o he indi idually; hus e lec ing a pu ely
egois ic p ocess. Con e sely, he 'socio opic suppo ' o he EC is de i ed om he
conside a ion o hose economic ewa ds which a e di ec ed o b oade collec i i ies
which he subjec eels pa o (e.g. one's na ion), and hus, i is no pu ely egois ic.
I I p e end an e alua ion o he indings ollowing such a dicho omy I ha e o
conclude ha he ew signs o economic suppo a e o a socio opic na u e. Bo h he
pe cep ion o bene i s (o pe cep ion ha " he coun y has bene i ed om EC
membe ship"), as well as he expec a ion o ad an ages o he coun y in se e al
ields (economic, poli ical and diploma ic), a e a iables which e lec he
conside a ion o collec i e c i e ia and no only indi idual ones. Indeed, I suspec ha
he in luence displayed by he unemploymen a e should be unde s ood as de i ed
om a p eoccupa ion o he collec i i y a he han as a sel ish calcula ion.
Pocke book a iables like he e olu ion o he economy o he household, o in la ion,
incomes, and so on, eached alues which did no e en seem wo h epo ing.
This means ha , as a as people ake in o accoun he economic well-being
in o de o o m hei a i ude owa ds he EC, hey seem o alue much mo e he
collec i e well-being a he han hei own p i a e one.
This conclusion coincides wi h he esul s o he only compa able s udy so
a . Dal on and Eichenbe g (1991, p. 11) conclude ha " he in luence o socio opic
e ospec i e e alua ions p o ides he bes o e all model o ci izen suppo o he
EC". The e o e, i seems ha he socio opic basis o he suppo o he EC is well

endo sed. I is also endo sed by nume ous elec o al s udies a a na ional le el.
Socio opic o ing has been obse ed in a b oad ange o di e en cases and pe iods
-such as Jacobson (1983), Ab amowi z, Lo e and No po h (1986) and, o a ce ain
ex en , Fio ina (1981) and Kiewie (1983).
In addi ion o he p e ious, he success o he socio opic model (and he
ailu e o he pocke book) in his case has an speci ic explana ion, which is based on
he peculia na u e o he EC. I would a gue ha i is unde s andable ha people do
no link he ups and downs o hei pe sonal economic si ua ion o he EC, whe eas
hey end o do so in he case o he na ional economic si ua ion. I should ake in o
accoun ha , by he na u e o he EC, he economic consequences which
membe ship has o he indi idual a e o en e ibly emo e. Also, people
unconsciously associa e he EC o he ield o ac ion o he na ion-s a es and no o
ha o he indi idual ci izens(5). Gi en his backg ound, i seems jus easonable ha
he collec i e mo i a ions o he socio opic suppo a e mo e in luen ial han he
sel ish mo i es o he pocke book one.
Howe e , i migh be a gued in de ence o he pocke book p ocess ha , in
hose condi ions o igno ance o he p i a e economic consequences, he indi idual
may ake he collec i e economic consequences no as a genuine conce n, bu as a
p oxy o he o me - hus spelling ou a ype o suppo no so dis an om he
pocke book.
These e lec ions lead me o a second poin o deba e: he b oade ques ion
o whe he he esul s d aw a p ocess o o ma ion o a i udes owa ds he EC wi h a
base o indi idual a ionali y. I seems clea o me ha he socio opic p ocess which
has been desc ibed dispu es his so o in e p e a ion; pe haps i does no p eclude
i , bu ce ainly i does no make i mo e adequa e. This is also he assessmen which
is o en made by simila s udies on na ional economic o ing. Fo ins ance, Jacobson
(1991, p. 34) epo s ha ce ainly 'gene al economic assessmen s ... in luence
indi idual o ing decisions', bu he goes on o a gue ha 'al hough i is possible o
in e p e hese indings as e idence o a ional economic o ing in he con en ional
sense, i is no a all clea ha such an in e p e a ion can be sus ained'. In conclusion,
I would a gue ha he p edominan ly socio opic na u e o he p ocess would s and
agains a pu ely egois ic a ionali y.
Le me now emind he eade ha I ha e also ound ha he a iables o an
s ic economic na u e a e no enough o a comple e unde s anding o he p ocess,
he esul s would s and, also agains a pu ely economic a ionali y.
The wo p e ious esul s - aken oge he - se iously ques ion he exis ence o
an egois ic and s ic ly economic a ionali y - he so-called na ow a ionali y. A
despe a e a emp o de end a ionali y agains hese c i icisms would be o in oduce
a b oade concep o a ionali y -ei he non-egois ic, o non-economic, o bo h.
Howe e , his b oade concep o a ionali y in oduces e ible p oblems o au ology.
Mo eo e , i is e y complex o e e o non-egois ic and non-economic a ionali y as
a ional.
A hi d poin o e lec ion is based on he ac ha objec i e economic da a
and hei subjec i e app ecia ions display a a he di e en capaci y o in luence o e
suppo o membe ship. In p inciple, he ac ha he pe cep ion o bene i s displays
a clea e in luence ( han he objec i e a iables) would be ha dly su p ising.
Following he hypo hesis o he indi ec models, his would happen because he
in luence displayed by he subjec i e pe cep ions e idences a less media ed
associa ion. Al hough he e minology could be subjec o c i icism, I could summa ise
he p e ious by saying ha he pe cep ual a iables a e mo e success ul han he
objec i e a iables because he o me a e causally close o he dependen a iable.
This would jus adap o my case ha old a i ma ion by Downs (1957, p. 38) which
says ha 'only bene i s which o e s become conscious o by elec ion day can
in luence hei o ing decisions; o he wise hei beha iou would be i a ional.'
Howe e , his does no seem o be he case. I is no ha he objec i e bene i s only
ac h ough hei pe cep ions; i is jus ha hey do no in luence in any way.
Only subjec i e a iables show a decisi e in luence o e he suppo o he
EC. This subjec i e app ecia ions o bene i s -bo h he pe cep ion o bene i s which
ha e al eady been ecei ed om he EC, as well as he expec a ion o ecei e u u e
bene i s due o membe ship- ha e shown wo impo an ea u es. Fi s ly, hey a e no
linked o hei objec i e base (i.e. hey a e no a p oxy o he objec i e bene i s).
Secondly, and hey ell us ha i does no make a lo o sense o e e (a mass le el)
o app ecia ions o economic bene i s which a e concep ually di e en o poli ical
bene i s.
The e o e, e e y hing indica es ha he suppo o he EC is he
consequence o an un ounded con idence (since i is no based on eal ac s) and a
di use con idence (since he na u es o he bene i s a e indis inguishable) ha he
CE is bene icial(6). I is my opinion ha u he esea ch should inqui e mo e a ec i e
explana ions.
Table1
Table2
Figu e1

Figu e2
NOTES
(1) Some imes, p edic i e powe is no e en necessa y. Fo ins ance, seismology gi es a he
sa is ac o y explana ions o ea hquakes bu i is no able o p edic hem a all.
(2) Al hough a massi e lis o publica ions migh be ci ed, one o he la es s a e-o - he-a accoun s is
No po h, Lewis-Beck and Way, eds. (1991), whe e he eade will ind e e ence o all he ele an
p io s udies.
(3) A non epo ed esul endo ses his in e p e a ion. In Spain, he unemploymen a e seems o
in luence suppo o he EC e en be o e en y! I unemploymen in luences suppo o he EC
i espec i ely o being a membe , i seems clea ha his in luence has o ope a e hough o he
channels han he a ibu ion o economic esponsibili y. I is in his con ex ha he ' eel-good'
in e p e a ion becomes pe inen .
(4) A e one yea o adap a ion, Po ugal shows s abili y. G eece showed no signs o a ia ion when
he se ies begins - ou yea s a e i s en y. Thus, he e is no eason o expec ha Spain may
sus ain his ise in i s co ela ions o long.
(5) Fo ins ance, some da a om he ques ion alluded in Table 1 made clea ha he na ional
consequences o membe ship we e immensely mo e salien o he publics han he indi idual
consequences.
(6) The o ma ion o he subjec i e pe cep ions (and expec a ions) appea s o be a decisi e opic in
o de o unde s and he economic basis o he suppo o membe ship. In he pa allel case o
na ional o ing s udies, a simila need has been s essed. F om his need, an s a egy o
unde co e he media in luence m he o ma ion o economic pe cep ions has been de ised by
Sande s e al. (1991). An adap a ion o such an s a egy migh p o e use ul in he u u e.
* This essay is a e ised e sion o a pape o in e nal discussion be ween Agus í Bosch and P o .
Kenne h New on. I will e en ually lead o a coau ho ed chap e o be published in
NIEDERMAYER, O. (ed.): The In e na ionalisa ion o Go e nance. London, Ox o d Uni e si y
P ess, 1993.
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