Psychosocial In e en ion
Psychosocial In e en ion (2021) 30(1) 47-55
Ci e his a icle as: López-Osso io, J. J., González-Ál a ez, J. L., Loinaz, I., Ma ínez-Ma ínez, A., & Pineda, D. (2021). In ima e pa ne homicide isk assessmen by police in Spain:
VPR5.0-H he dual p o ocol.
Psychosocial In e en ion, 30
(1), 47-55. h ps://doi.o g/10.5093/pi2020a16
ISSN:1132-0559/© 2021 Colegio O icial de la Psicología de Mad id. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
In ima e Pa ne Homicide Risk Assessmen by Police in Spain:
The Dual P o ocol VPR5.0-H
Juan J. López-Osso ioa, b, José L. González-Ál a eza, b, Ismael Loinazb, c ,
Ana Ma ínez-Ma ínezd , and Da id Pinedad, e
a
Gabine e de Coo dinación y Es udios, Sec e a ía de Es ado de Segu idad, Spain;
b
Ins i u o de Ciencias Fo enses y de la Segu idad (ICFS), Uni e sidad
Au ónoma de Mad id, Spain;
c
G upo de Es udios A anzados en Violencia (GEAV), Uni e sidad de Ba celona, Spain;
d
Unidad de Psicología Fo ense, Uni e sidad Miguel
He nández de Elche, Spain;
e
Facul ad de Psicología, Uni e sidad Nacional de Educación a Dis ancia, Mad id, Spain
h ps://jou nals.copmad id.o g/pi
Co espondence: [email p o ec ed] (D. Pineda).
ARTICLE INFO
Recei ed 20 Decembe 2019
Accep ed 17 June 2020
A ailable online 7 Sep embe 2020
Keywo ds:
Homicide
In ima e pa ne homicide
Violence isk assessmen
Police isk assessmen
VioGén Sys em
ABSTRACT
Spanish police makes an ex ensi e use o in ima e pa ne iolence (IPV) isk assessmen on a daily basis. Imp o ed
p edic ion p ocedu es ha e encou aged he sea ch o g ea e e inemen o IPV p edic o s by adjus ing o speci ic
a ge s, such as le hal ou comes o po en ial ic imiza ion o child en. This pape desc ibes he e olu ion o he VPR5.0 ool
(VioGén Sys em Police Risk Assessmen ) as an algo i hm aimed a imp o ing p edic abili y o in ima e pa ne homicides
(IPH). A sample o 2,159 eco ds was used, 159 o whom we e IPH ic ims. The sample was di ided in o wo compa able
g oups o cases (IPH) and con ols (N-IPH) o alida e he esul s. The esul s showed ha 13 ou o 35 isk ac o s we e
signi ican ly ela ed o IPH wi h an e ec size di e en o ha o gene al N-IPH (wi h
OR
alues anging be ween 1.507
and 8.087). Bina y logis ic eg ession showed six signi ican ac o s ha co ec ly classi ied 86.3% o he IPH. The new
H-Scale pe o mance pa ame e s we e compa able o hose ob ained in s udies wi h he same objec i e (sensi i i y 84%,
speci ici y 60%,
OR
= 8.130, AUC = .80, PPV = .19 and NPV = .97).
La alo ación policial del iesgo del homicidio de pa eja en España: el p o ocolo
dual VPR5.0-H
RESUMEN
La policía española hace un uso dia io y ex enso de la e aluación del iesgo de iolencia en casos de iolencia de géne o
(VCP). El pe eccionamien o de los sis emas de p edicción de VCP ha impulsado la búsqueda de p ocedimien os ajus ados
a obje i os conc e os, como puede se el esul ado le al o la inclusión de meno es como posibles íc imas. En el p esen e
abajo se desc ibe la e olución de la he amien a VPR5.0 (Valo ación Policial del Riesgo del Sis ema VioGén) a un algo i mo
di e enciado cuyo obje i o es p edeci mejo los homicidios de muje es po su pa eja (HCP). Se analiza on 2,159 egis os,
159 de los cuales co espondían a HCP, di idiendo la mues a en dos g upos compa ables con casos (HCP) y con oles
(N-HCP) pa a alida los análisis. Los esul ados pusie on de mani ies o que de los 35 ac o es de la he amien a 13 es aban
asociados signi ica i amen e con el HCP, con un amaño del e ec o di e en e al de N-HCP (con alo es
OR
en e 1.507 y
8.087). La eg esión logís ica bina ia mos ó seis ac o es signi ica i os que clasi icaban co ec amen e el 86.3% de los HCP.
Los pa áme os de endimien o de es a escala-H esul a on compa ables a los ob enidos en es udios con el mismo obje i o
(sensibilidad 84%, especi icidad 60%,
OR
= 8.130, AUC = .80, VPP = .19 y VPN = .97).
Palab as cla e:
Homicidio
Homicidio de pa eja
E aluación del iesgo de iolencia
E aluación policial del iesgo
Sis ema VioGén
In ima e pa ne iolence (IPV) is a complex phenomenon ha
occu s o a ying deg ees in all coun ies, cul u es, and socie ies.
An ex eme mani es a ion o his iolence is homicide. Violence a
his le el c ea es g ea social ala m while also ha ing impo an
epe cussions on he social en i onmen o ic im, pe pe a o ,
and socie y in gene al (López-Osso io e al., 2018). Homicides ha e
mul i ace ed o igins. Figh agains homicides is ensh ined in he global
goals o sus ainable de elopmen as highligh s how women and gi ls
h oughou he wo ld a e a ec ed by i . The e we e app oxima ely
87,000 homicides o women in 2017 (UNODC, 2019). While his o al
indica es a dec ease o e p e ious yea s, an ala ming ac is ha he
numbe o homicides o women in he con ex o amily and couples
inc eased om 47% in 2012 o 58% in 2017. Al hough app oxima ely
81% o all homicide ic ims a e men, his igu e changes subs an ially
48
J.J. López-Osso io e al. / Psychosocial In e en ion (2021) 30(1) 47-55
when in ima e pa ne homicide (IPH), whe e 82% o ic ims a e
women, is eco ded (UNODC, 2019). These igu es con i m he indings
o p e ious s udies by S öckl e al. (2013).
I is es ima ed in he U.S. be ween 2003 o 2014 ha 55% o
all homicides agains women we e IPV- ela ed. In addi ion, 7% o
homicides had adolescen ic ims; only 18% o hem had a p io
his o y o iolence being in lic ed agains hem (Adhia e al., 2019). In
Eu ope, Spain, Holland, I aly, and Sco land a e among he coun ies and
egions wi h he lowes IPH a es, less han 0.20 mu de s pe 100,000
inhabi an s. O he coun ies, such as Albania, Iceland, Hunga y, and
C oa ia, ha e highe IPH a es, abo e 0.40 mu de s pe 100,000
inhabi an s (UNODC, 2019). These da a s and in con as o he highe
p e alence o IPH in coun ies such as Sweden, Iceland, and Finland,
which his o ically a e much mo e equal in e ms o women’s igh s
and eedom. IPH a es in some o hese coun ies app oxima ely
iple he Spanish a e, a phenomenon known as he “No dic pa adox”
which has no ye been clea ly explained (G acia & Me lo, 2016).
Complemen a ily, in Eu ope low IPH le els do no always co espond
wi h low IPV le els (UNODC, 2019).
Rega ding he numbe o women mu de ed in Spain by hei
male pa ne s, o icial da a indica e educ ion om abou 70 cases
pe yea du ing he 2003 o 2010 pe iod o less han 50 o e he pas
wo yea s (Minis y o Heal h, Social Policy, and Equali y [MSPSI,
2018]). Al hough his phenomenon has a low p e alence in Spain,
he pe sonal and social impac o his iolence is e y high, equi ing
he in es men o e ec i e esou ces o i s p e en ion. In Spain, he
epo ed ecidi ism o one yea in IPV is 15% (López-Osso io, Loinaz,
e al., 2019), and he app oxima e IPH a e is 0.30 pe 100,000 women.
The need o imp o e p edic ion and p e en ion sys ems is heigh ened
when hese abs ac igu es a e ansla ed in o ac ual numbe s o
ic ims o his iolence.
One o he mos impo an app oaches in he ield o IPV ecidi ism
p e en ion in ol es isk assessmen and managemen . Violence isk
assessmen has a long his o y and has also been applied in nume ous
c iminal ypologies (Bloom e al., 2005; Ha is e al., 2015; Loinaz,
2017; Singh e al., 2016). In he case o IPV, i s use is pa icula ly
impo an o police, who a e usually in cha ge o case managemen .
In daily p ac ice, he e o e, we would ha e a p edic i e in e es
(i.e., di e en ia ing cases and an icipa ing and p edic ing ypes o
iolence) ocused on p e en ion (i.e., implemen ing he necessa y
measu es so ha he an icipa ed ou come does no occu , especially
in he mos se ious cases). G aham e al. (2019) ha e ecen ly poin ed
ou ha he e is a g ea a ie y o ools ha aim o assess IPV isk.
Howe e , pa o he esea ch has ocused on analyzing applica ions
as de e mined by esea che s wi h an academic p o ile and no by
on line p o essionals, such as he police. The deg ee o homogenei y
o samples (e.g., same-sex couples o emale pe pe a o s a e no aken
in o accoun ), as well as hei p edic i e, a he han p e en i e, s udy
aims a e among he limi a ions o ea lie s udies. The e a e also majo
di e ences in he s a is ical alidi y indica o s o he ins umen s used
in p e ious esea ch, which complica es compa ison be ween s udies.
In o de o p e en bo h le hal and non-le hal iolence, co ec
isk assessmen is essen ial. I homicide is unde s ood as he ul ima e
exp ession o iolence, i could easonably be an icipa ed ha IPV
ools would adequa ely p edic his phenomenon in he p esence o
a high isk. Howe e , in he majo i y o p e iously epo ed IPH i
was equen ly obse ed ha he la es police isk assessmen s had
low p edic i e a es because he e we e no enough isk indica o s
iden i ied o wa n o he possible IPH. This has o en been e oneously
in e p e ed as a ailu e o hose assessmen s (MSPSI, 2018). This
homicide phenomenon, a leas pa ially di e en and much mo e
complex han ecidi ism in IPV, equi es complemen a y p e en i e
s a egies (Cunha & Gonçal es, 2016; Dobash e al., 2009; He on,
2017; López-Osso io e al., 2018).
The need o iden i y IPH isk ac o s ha make i possible o p edic
he phenomenon and iden i y people wi h he g ea es po en ial o
ha m has p e iously been highligh ed (Weil e al., 2018). Resea ch on
IPV isk ac o s is ex ensi e and has allowed us o con ibu e in pa allel
wi h ad ances in IPH. The e iew o cu en knowledge on couples’
homicides leads us o ques ion whe he p edic ion is possible when
dealing wi h subjec s ha ing di e en p o iles, di e en mo i a ions,
and di e en isk ac o s (López-Osso io e al., 2018). Among a ailable
s udies on he opic a e desc ip ions o a se ies o IPH (Bel age &
Rying, 2004; Caman, K is iansson, e al., 2017; González-Ál a ez,
Ga ido, e al., 2018; Ki i uo i & Leh i, 2012); p o iles o IPH o ende s
(Dobash & Dobash, 2011; Dobash e al., 2009); di e ences be ween
ba e e s and IPH o ende s (Cunha & Gonçal es, 2019; Dobash e al.,
2007; Jung & S ewa , 2019); compa ison o IPH o ende s and o he
homicides (Caman, Howne , e al., 2017; Dobash e al., 2004; Juodis
e al., 2014); and IPH and homicides o women ou side o in ima e
ela ionships (Dobash & Dobash, 2015; Loinaz e al., 2018; Za a e al.,
2019).
B oadly speaking, esea ch could be summa ized as ollows: mos
IPH cases a e pe pe a ed by cu en o o me in ima e pa ne s;
IPH sha e many cha ac e is ics wi h o he homicides, al hough IPH
o ende s a e mo e no malized (socially adap ed) han pe pe a o s
o o he ypes o homicide; he e is no single IPH p o ile, and o ende
ypologies mus always be es ablished; many cases do no ha e an
o icial his o y o p e ious iolence; inally, p e alence o hese cases
is e y low. As a consequence o hese ac o s, p edic i e abili y is e y
complica ed. Con adic o y s udies poin o di e en ial p edic o s and
less no malized p o iles in IPH (Eke e al., 2011; Juodis e al., 2014;
Ki i uo i & Leh i, 2012).
Because o his he e ogenei y and he dimensional na u e o
iolence, IPV isk assessmen ools end o ha e a global p edic i e
a ge – e.g., Spousal Assaul Risk Assessmen guide (SARA), B ie
Spousal Assaul Fo m o he E alua ion o Risk (B-SAFER),
P o ocolo
de Valo ación del Riesgo de Violencia con a la Muje po pa e de
su Pa eja o Expa eja
(RVD-Bcn) –, al hough some ha e ocused in
pa icula on p edic ing homicide – e.g., Dange Assessmen (DA) –
o mo e se ious assaul s – e.g.,
Valo ación Policial del Riesgo
(VPR),
Escala de P edicción del Riesgo de Violencia G a e con a la pa eja-
Re isada
(EPV-R), On a io Domes ic Assaul Risk Assessmen (ODARA).
Pe o mance pa ame e s o di e en ools ha e been e iewed and
published in a a ie y o pape s (Nicholls e al., 2013).
In summa y, indings ela ed o eliabili y and alidi y o hese
isk assessmen ools a e simila o hose ob ained wi h Spanish ools
(Echebu úa e al., 2010; Loinaz, 2014; López-Osso io e al., 2016;
López-Osso io, González-Ál a ez, e al., 2019). In some cases, i has
been poin ed ou ha he combined use o wo ools wi h di e en
o ma s, such as SARA and ODARA, inc eases hei p edic i e capaci y
(Ol e & Jung, 2017).
A p oblem o IPH p edic ion a ises when he homicidal agg esso
does no p esen isk ac o s and escapes assessmen sys ems (Dixon
e al., 2008). In a ecen me a-analysis, Spence and S i h (2018) poin
o ac o s wi h he g ea es po en ial o p edic ing IPH: di ec access
o a gun, his o y o non- a al s angula ion, ape o he ic im, h ea s
wi h a weapon, con olling beha io s, and p e ious h ea s o ha m.
In addi ion, nume ous pape s poin o he impo ance o ob aining
da a on suicide indica o s o p e en hese homicides (B idge e al.,
2017). S udies such as hose by Campbell e al. (2003) also sugges
he exis ence o isk ac o s ha p edic IPH: his o y o mis ea men ,
sepa a ion p ocesses, ha assmen , subs ance abuse, men al diso de ,
and access o i ea ms, gi ing ise o he de elopmen o he DA ool
(Campbell, 2012; Campbell & Glass, 2009; Campbell e al., 2003;
Campbell e al., 2009), which was designed o applied use as a ic im
in e iew echnique.
Policing ools end o ha e an easy- o-apply ac ua ial design ha
seeks bo h o maximize esponse po en ial and o s eamline he
implemen a ion p ocess (Messing, Campbell, Sulli an, e al., 2017).
An in e na ional example is he On a io Domes ic Assaul Risk
Assessmen (ODARA) (Hil on & Eke, 2016; Hil on e al., 2001; Hil on e
49
In ima e Pa ne Homicide Risk Assessmen by Police in Spain: The Dual P o ocol VPR
5.0
-H
al., 2004), which con ains 13 unweigh ed isk ac o s ha link esul s
o ecidi ism a es. This ool has been used in se e al ways: o analyze
use ulness o online aining o use s (Hil on & Ham, 2015), as an
indica o o emale pe pe a o s’ isk (Hil on e al., 2014), and o he
assignmen o app op ia e ea men o di e en agg esso s (Rada z &
Hil on, 2019). On he o he hand, adap a ions o s uc u ed judgmen
ools o his con ex ha e ended o be b ie , such as he B-SAFER
de i ed om SARA (K opp, 2008; Loinaz, 2014; S alin e al., 2018), o
a b ie e sion o DA (Messing, Campbell, Sulli an, e al., 2017).
The ield o police p edic ion has also unde gone no able
de elopmen s wi h he c ea ion o new ools in he in e na ional
en i onmen , such as SVRA-I (Dayan e al., 2013) o VP-SAF R (McEwan
e al., 2019), o in he Spanish ield wi h Police Risk Assessmen (VPR)
(López-Osso io e al., 2017; López-Osso io, González-Ál a ez, e al.,
2019), and EPV-R (Echebu úa e al., 2010). In addi ion, analysis o
police isk managemen has also been a ocus o a en ion (Bel age e
al., 2012; McEwan e al., 2017; Pe ez T ujillo & Ross, 2008; S o ey e
al., 2014; S alin e al., 2018; S alin e al., 2017). The e a e o he speci ic
ools o assessing IPH isk, such as MOSAIC-20 o he Ma yland
Ne wo k Agains Domes ic Violence h ough he Le hali y Sc een o
Fi s Responde s ques ionnai e (Messing, Campbell, Sulli an, e al., 2017).
In Spain, wo k on Fo m VPR4.0 obus ness allowed i s e olu ion o
e sion 5.0 (López-Osso io, Loinaz, e al., 2019), s abilizing pe o mance
pa ame e s o one yea , inco po a ing a new indica o linked o
agg esso s unde he age o 24 and consolida ing i s 35 cu en isk
indica o s (see Me hod sec ion o a mo e de ailed discussion). These
adjus men s ha e educed he ma gin o e o ( alse posi i e) o he
lowes le els o isk o be ween 8.3-13.7%, and he wo highes le els
o isk p o ide a co ec classi ica ion o 54.1% o ecidi ism in hei
ca ego ies. I also achie es some imp o emen s in i s pe o mance
pa ame e s (Cabine o Coo dina ion and S udies, 2017: sensi i i y
82%, speci ici y 34%, AUC = .64 [.62, .66], PPV 17%, NPV 92%,
OR
= 2.4
[2.0, 2.8]). Despi e being an ac ua ial sys em, i s ocus is no only on
isk assessmen , bu especially on isk managemen (which is mo e
common in s uc u ed p o essional judgmen me hodologies han
in ac ua ial sys ems), wi h di e en speci ic mechanisms managed
and coo dina ed om he VioGén Sys em. Thus, one o he inhe en
consequences o esea ch is ha isk managemen ends o a ec alse
posi i es due o ic im p o ec ion ( isk subjec s who a e managed and
who, he e o e, a e no expec ed o elapse despi e ha ing been gi en
a high- isk de e mina ion).
Since IPV and IPH p edic ion may s em om di e en ac o s,
he aims o his s udy we e i s o de e mine speci ic IPH isk ac-
o s, in con as o hose o gene al IPV in Spain and, second, o
imp o e IPH p edic ion h ough he de elopmen and alida ion o
a new scale o p o ide an es ima ion o homicide isk complemen-
a y o he main algo i hm o he VPR5.0-H scale.
Me hod
Pa icipan s
In 2007, he Spanish Minis y o he In e io implemen ed he
VioGén Sys em (González-Ál a ez, López-Oso io, e al., 2018), which
collec s and manages all na ional in o ma ion, mos ly om police
epo s, on in ima e pa ne iolence agains women. The sys em
co esponds wi h he ac ua ial ecidi ism isk assessmen ool used
by specialis police o ice s (VPR5.0) o a icula e p o ec ion measu es
based on he le el o isk. Cases a e pe iodically e-e alua ed using
a complemen a y o m (Police Risk E olu ion Assessmen ) (VPER4.1;
López-Osso io, González-Ál a ez, e al., 2019). A o al o 2,159 eco ds
om he VioGén Sys em we e used in he cu en s udy. In all he
eco ds, he pe pe a o was a man and he ic im a woman. O hese,
2,000 (92.6%) did no esul in dea h (con ol g oup; N-IPH) and 159
(7.4%) we e IPH (case g oup). The 2,000 eco ds o he N-IPH g oup
co esponded o andom denuncia ions egis e ed in he VioGén
Sys em in he las qua e o 2016. In his g oup, ic ims had an a e age
age o 34.5 yea s (
SD
= 13.03, ange = 13-68). Repo ed agg esso s’
mean age was 36.51 yea s (
SD
= 14.57, ange = 14-68); 65.7% o he
ic ims and 67.9% o hose epo ed we e o Spanish na ionali y;
65.0% o complain s we e iled in u ban a eas and 35.0% in u al a eas,
es ima ed acco ding o e i o ial compe ences o police o ces.
A o al o 159 homicides om he sample, o which isk assess-
men in o ma ion was a ailable, occu ed be ween Feb ua y 2006
and Sep embe 2018 (only 14.5% o IPH occu ed be o e 2011, and
55.3% a e 2013), a pe iod in which 759 IPHs we e commi ed as
con i med by he Go e nmen Delega ion o Gende Violence.
Thus, he sample o homicides co esponds o 20.9% o he o al
o ha pe iod. A e age age o women who died was 41.49 yea s
old (
SD
= 14.66, ange = 14-77) and 68.0% we e Spanish; 27.6% o
he sample had p e iously denounced he agg esso o a leas one
episode o iolence (pe cen age simila o he 25.9% o denuncia-
ions p esen in he o al numbe o IPH cases o he men ioned
pe iod). Rega ding homicides, a e age age was 46.38 yea s (
SD
=
14.56, ange = 19-86) and 70.7% we e Spanish; 48.7% o IPH cases
occu ed in u ban a eas and 51.3% in u al a eas. The pe cen age o
suicide consumma ed a e he homicide o he analyzed sample
was 22.0%, and in all homicides o he pe iod i was 20.2%. I is con-
side ed ha samples a e ep esen a i e o hei s udy popula ions
and compa able, excep o he ac ha o IPH cases do no main-
ain he same empo al co espondence o simul anei y o N-IPH
cases due o he ac ha he empo al ange had o be ex ended
because o he low p e alence o homicides.
Ins umen
Fo m VPR5.0, composed o 35 dicho omously coded isk ac o s
(p esen /absen ), p o ides i e le els o isk: unapp ecia ed, low,
medium, high, and ex eme. Fac o s a e g ouped in o i e dimen-
sions: 1) his o y o in ima e pa ne iolence; 2) ac o s ela ed o
he o ende ; 3) indica o s ela ed o ic ims’ ulne abili y; 4) ci -
cums ances ela ed o mino s; and 5) agg a a ing ci cums ances
and subjec i e aspec s o a ic im’s own isk.
Design and P ocedu es
Fo he de elopmen o he s udy we used an epidemiological
design, obse a ional analy ical cases (IPH) and con ols (N-IPH),
which allows he cons uc ion o a p edic i e le el model based on
bi a ia e s a is ics o know odds a io (
OR
) o ac o s p edic ing IPH,
and mul i a ia e p ocedu es o analyze con usion o measu es. Fo he
159 homicides, e alua ions o cases wi h a p e ious epo we e used,
and VPR5.0 in un epo ed cases we e comple ed by p o essionals wi h
he same aining conside ing he in o ma ion g an ed by Spanish
a ali y e iew eams (González-Ál a ez, Ga ido, e al., 2018).
Six hund ed eco ds we e andomly selec ed om he 2000 N-IPH
(non-le hal iolence) ha , oge he wi h he 159 IPH cases (600+159),
o med a i s da a ma ix used o iden i y isk ac o s p obabilis ically
associa ed wi h IPH e en s h ough con ingency ables and
es ima ion o hei OR. The a io o IPH and N-IPH was e y close o
1:4, inc easing he numbe o “con ols” pe “case” o he maximum
ad isable o epidemiological s udies, especially in he iden i ica ion
o isk ac o s wi h ou comes o low p e alence o “ a e e en s”, as
s a is ical powe inc eased (Fle che e al., 2014). Once he isk ac o s
we e ob ained, he nex s ep was he de elopmen and alida ion o
he H-Scale. In o de o maximize s abili y o measu es, a p ocedu e
o c oss alida ion wi h wo o he ma ices was chosen, so ha o
he de elopmen ma ix 60% o he andomized sample o IPHs and
N-IPHs was used (
n
= 936), and o ob aining alida ion pa ame e s
( alida ion ma ix) he emaining 40% (
n
= 623), ollowing he same
50
J.J. López-Osso io e al. / Psychosocial In e en ion (2021) 30(1) 47-55
P edic o s Coe icien (χ²) % Valid
OR
95% CI (
n
=
759)
Signi ican posi i e ela ionship
Suicide h ea s om he agg esso 8.087*** [4.014, 16.295] 45.685 99.9
The pe pe a o shows exagge a ed jealousy o suspec ed
in ideli y o his pa ne in he las six mon hs. 1.507* [1.057, 2.149] 5.175 93.9
The pe pe a o shows con olling beha io s in he las six
mon hs. 1.725** [1.202, 2.478] 8.839 94.9
P esence o p oblems in his li e (s ess) in he las six mon hs. 3.338*** [2.298, 4.850] 42.153 85.5
The pe pe a o has economic o wo k- ela ed p oblems in
he las six mon hs. 6.324*** [4.247, 9.419] 94.955 100
P esence o pas b eakings o sen ence condi ions 2.634** [1.384, 5.011] 9.292 96.7
P esence o physical o sexual agg ession eco ds 1.577* [1.031, 2.412] 4.455 97.1
The pe pe a o p esen s a men al o psychia ic diso de 3.384*** [2.003, 5.716] 22.659 88.0
P esence o suicidal ideas o a emp s 1.994** [1.300, 3.057] 10.262 92.0
P esence o any kind o disabili y in he ic im 2.020* [1.033, 3.952] 4.374 98.2
Men al o psychia ic diso de in he ic im 3.221*** [1.682, 6.168] 13.672 97.0
Any kind o addic ion o engages in subs ance abuse (alcohol
and d ugs) in he ic im. 5.101*** [2.784, 9.346] 32.989 95.9
His o y o gende o domes ic iolence wi hin ic im’s amily. 4.063*** [1.941, 8.502] 15.919 100
Non-signi ican posi i e ela ionship
Psychological iolence 0.525* [0.357, 0.774] 10.794 98.0
Physical iolence 0.340*** [0.237, 0.486] 36.430 99.3
Sexual iolence 1.539 [0.875, 2.706] 2.270 97.4
Th ea ened ic im wi h a cu ing weapon 1.082 [0.483, 2.423] 0.370 100
Th ea ened ic im wi h a i ea m 3.791 [0.236, 60.947] 1.022 100
Mino h ea s o ha m he ic im 0.448*** [0.301, 0.666] 16.129 72.3
An escala ion o agg ession in he las 6 mon hs 0.665* [0.456, 0.942] 5.261 95.1
In he las yea he agg esso has caused ma e ial damage 0.329*** [0.505, 0.230] 22.501 94.7
In he las yea hey ha e dis espec ed an au ho i y igu e 0.760 [0.385, 1.501] 0.627 92.0
In he las yea hey ha e commi ed an agg ession agains
hi d pa ies o animals. 0.560 [0.302, 1.039] 3.459 93.0
In he las yea hey ha e made h ea s and sligh s owa ds
hi d pa ies. 0.636 [0.402, 1.006] 3.791 91.3
P esence o a c iminal eco d 1.015 [0.713, 1.443] 0.007 100
P esence o eco ds o gende iolence agains o he in ima e
pa ne s. 0.507* [0.285, 0.901] 5.537 96.7
P esence o any ype o addic ion o abuse o alcohol o d ugs. 0.875 [0.613 ,1.248] 0.545 92.6
The agg esso has a amily his o y o being abused 0.668 [0.377, 1.184] 1.928 73.4
Vic im has no social suppo 1.174 [0.750, 1.838] 0.491 96.4
Vic im o o eign o igin 1.386 [0.941, 2.041] 2.736 99.6
Vic im is economically dependen on he agg esso 1.318 [0.837, 1.992] 1.729 95.5
The ic im has mino s’ membe s unde hei ca e 0.463*** [0.322, 0.665] 17.776 98.0
The ic im has su e ed gende iolence by he hands o o he
agg esso s in he pas . 0.487* [0.275, 0.863] 6.291 98.7
The ic im has communica ed o he agg esso hei desi e o
end he ela ionship a leas 6 mon hs ago. 0.521*** [0.365, 0.745] 13.046 95.0
The ic im hinks ha he agg esso is capable o killing he . 0.131*** [0.076, 0.225] 67.242 87.7
Table 1. Risk P edic o s o In ima e Pa ne Homicide IPH (
N
= 759)
No e.
OR
= odds a io; 1CI 95%.
signi ican alue (
) o isk *
p
<. 05, **
p
<. 01, ***
p
< .001.
51
In ima e Pa ne Homicide Risk Assessmen by Police in Spain: The Dual P o ocol VPR
5.0
-H
p ocedu e o a oid duplici y and ha no con ol was eally a case o ha
was epea ed in wo ma ices.
Due o he ac ha he esea ch p ojec was o ien ed om he be-
ginning o he cons uc ion and alida ion o a p ocedu e ha would
allow o imp o e p edic ions o he IPH isk, h ee equi emen s we e
es ablished: IPH isk ac o s had o demons a e hei associa ion wi h
he mo al ou come, ob aining hei own ma hema ical weigh (OR),
no ma e i i was di e en om he one used o he lowe in ensi y
elapse; isk ac o s had o be sha ed wi h he base ins umen al eady
in use (VPR5.0) o a oid agen s ha ing o make wo assessmen s; and,
inally, he ul ima e p edic i e model should imp o e cu en VPR5.0
p edic ions o IPHs.
Da a Analysis
IBM S a is ical Package o Social Sciences (SPSS 20) was used. In-
dependen a iables we e isk ac o s om VPR5.0, and he dependen
a iable was a al ou come. To de e mine s a is ical signi icance, con-
ingency ables we e used and Pea son and
OR
es χ2 was calcula ed. In
o de o e i y ha esul s o con ingency ables a e no due o chance,
i was con i med ha
OR
alue ange did no con ain he uni and he
condi ional independence es χ2 o Man el-Haenszel was es ima ed.
Raw
OR
esul s om he bi a ia e model we e also op imized h ou-
gh bina y logis ic eg ession. Pe o mance pa ame e s we e es ima ed
using he elemen s o es disc imina ion (
OR
, sensi i i y, and speci i-
ci y) and calib a ion wi h he posi i e p edic i e alue (PPV) and he
nega i e p edic i e alue (NPV). The s a is ical analyses o p edic i e
alidi y we e comple ed wi h ROC cu es o ob ain he a ea unde he
cu e (AUC).
Resul s
IPH Risk Fac o s
The analysis o IPH p edic o s wi h he i s ma ix (600 + 159) showed
ha 13 o he 35 indica o s p esen in VPR5.0 we e signi ican ly associa ed
wi h a al ou comes (see Table 1).
OR
ob ained anged om 1.507 o
he agg esso ’s jealousy o 8.087 o his suicide h ea s. A hi d o indica-
o s belonged o ci cums ances o he ic im, and mos o pe pe a o ’s
sphe e. The esul s o he bina y logis ic eg ession analysis showed ha
six ac o s could co ec ly classi y 86.3% o cases (Table 2).
H-Scale De elopmen and Pe o mance Pa ame e s
One o he aims o he s udy was o de elop an IPH isk assessmen
ool ha could be used by he compu e sys em a he same ime ha
he global ool (VPR5.0) is applied by police o ice s/clinicians, and
a ious es s we e ca ied ou o assess he bes op ion and p edic o s.
The i s echnical ini ia i e was aimed a imp o ing p edic ion
o IPH wi h he VPR5.0, including new weigh s ob ained o he 13
signi ican ac o s (Table 1). Howe e , he di e en combina ions
did no show any op imal esul s, because i he p edic ion o IPH
was imp o ed ha o ecidi ism would dec ease, and ice e sa.
The p edic i e model de i ed om he six isk ac o s o he logis ic
eg ession o e ed simila esul s o ha o he 13 ac o s. Gi en hese
esul s, i was decided ha he H-Scale be cons uc ed using he 13
isk ac o s. Once he esul s o he ROC cu e we e ob ained, he bes
cu -o poin s we e op imized o h ee isk le els classi ied by he
H-Scale: low le el up o 3.232, medium le el up o 12.883, and high
le el wi h sco es abo e 12.883. The cons uc ion me hod was o an
ac ua ial weigh ed addi i e ype, adding he speci ic OR alue wi h he
IPH o each p esen i em. As a sc eening mode, he aim was o educe
he a e o alse nega i es (FN), aluing sensi i i y o e speci ici y. In
he alida ion ma ix, low isk le el comp ised 56.0% o he sample
and 15.9% o he IPH (FN); medium isk le el comp ised 31.3% o he
sample and 36.5% o he IPH; and high isk le el comp ised 12.7% o
he sample and 47.6% o he co ec classi ica ion o IPH, wi h a ue
posi i e a e o 84.1% (TP).
Pe o mance pa ame e s wi h espec o p edic i e alidi y,
calcula ed wi h a de elopmen ma ix and a alida ion ma ix,
showed high consis ency (Table 3), wi h g ea simila i y o AUC
alues con idence in e als. Es ima o s ound in bo h ma ices we e
e y simila .
OR
as indica o s o measu e o e ec and inc ease
o isk anged om 6.70 o 8.13.
OR
o high- isk le el was 9.481
(5.336, 16.844,
p
< .001); hus, a isk assessmen o his classi ica ion
inc eases almos 10 imes he p obabili y o an ex emely se ious
e en . Sensi i i y anged om 81% o 84% and speci ici y om 61% o
60%. PPV, which indica es he p opo ion o pe cen age o indi iduals
co ec ly classi ied as a isk, s ood a 19%, despi e he ac ha he
pe cen age o alse posi i es emained high. NPV, which indica es he
p opo ion o indi iduals co ec ly classi ied as low isk, eached 97%.
O he o al numbe o cases classi ied as low isk (56.0%), only 2.9%
we e inco ec ly classi ied. The cu -o poin a low isk le el was used
o make hese calcula ions.
P edic o s
B SE
Wald χ2
p
exp(
B
) 95% CI
[lowe -uppe ]
Suicide h ea s om he
agg esso 1.743 0.552 9.978 .002 5.714 [1.938, 16.849]
The pe pe a o shows con olling
beha io s in he las six mon hs 0.700 0.309 5.132 .023 2.015 [1.099, 3.693]
The pe pe a o has economic o
wo k- ela ed p oblems in he las
six mon hs 1.562 0.321 23.707 .000 4.768 [2.543, 8.941]
P esence o physical o
sexual agg ession eco ds 0.956 0.392 5.937 .015 2.602 [1.206 ,5.614]
The pe pe a o p esen s
a men al o psychia ic diso de 1.492 0.402 13.782 .000 4.446 [2.022, 9.773]
P esence o any kind o
disabili y in he ic im 1.286 0.636 4.091 .043 3.617 [1.041, 12.571]
Table 2. Logis ic Reg ession Coe icien s o Bina y Ou comes
No e
. EXP(
B
) = haza d a ios; CI = con idence in e al;
SE
= s anda d e o .
Model summa y. Cox & Sell’s chi-squa e
R2
= .153; Nagelke ke’s chi-squa e
R2
= .279; Hosme & Lemeshow’s χ2 (4,
n
= 623) = 5.00.
p
= .287.
52
J.J. López-Osso io e al. / Psychosocial In e en ion (2021) 30(1) 47-55
Pe o mance pa ame e s De elopmen ma ix
(
n
= 936) H-Scale Valida ion ma ix
(
n
= 623) H-Scale
OR
6.70 [3.94, 11.39] 8.13 [4.05, 16.32]
Sensi i i y .81 .84
Speci ici y .61 .60
AUC .81 [ .76, .86] .80 [.74, .86]
PPV1 .19 .19
NPV .97 .97
Table 3. E icacy and Gene al P edic i e Validi y o To al Sco es in De elopmen
and Valida ion Samples o he H Scale
No e
. CI = 95%;
OR
= odds a io; AUC = a ea unde he ecei e ope a ing cha ac-
e is ic cu e; PPV= posi i e p edic i e alue; NPV= nega i e p edic i e alue.
2Base a e (%) de elopmen ma ix = 10.25% and alida ion ma ix= 10.11%.
The AUC ob ained om he H-Scale was .80 (IC .74 - .86), he
s anda d e o was low o a iance es ima ion o he a ea and he
p
- alue was e y signi ican , being able o de e mine ha his es-
ima o o e s good disc iminan capaci y. Figu e 1 illus a es di e-
ences in p edic i e capabili y o he H-Scale and non-dual Fo m
VPR5.0 o es ima ing IPH isk.
Discussion
The aim o he s udy was o es whe he ac o s in he VPR5.0,
he Police Risk Assessmen Fo m o IPV ecidi ism used by mos
law en o cemen agencies in Spain, we e capable o disc imina ing
IPH cases. In addi ion, he idea was o de elop a speci ic ool o he
p edic ion o homicide ha could be co ec ed by he sys em a he
same ime as VPR5.0 was applied (same applica ion o VPR allows
o co ec a pa allel algo i hm speci ic o homicide wi h speci ic
signi ican ac o s).
O he 35 isk ac o s p esen in he ool, 13 we e signi ican ly
associa ed wi h IPH, wi h e ec sizes di e en om p edic ion o
non-le hal IPV. Fou ac o s om a ic im’s sphe e we e ele an ,
which had no been obse ed in p e ious s udies ega ding
p edic ion o isk o non-le hal ecidi ism (López-Osso io e al.,
2017). This aspec would con i m di e ences poin ed ou be ween
IPV and IPH, al hough he e a e also common isk ac o s in bo h
o ms o iolence (Cunha & Gonçal es, 2019). On he o he hand,
i should be no ed ha he agg esso ’s suicide h ea s, iola ion
o es aining o de s, suicide idea ion and a emp s, he ic im’s
su e ing om some o m o men al illness, and he expe ience
o IPH in he ic im’s amily en i onmen had no appea ed as
ele an o IPH p edic ion in p e ious s udies, as shown by he
me a-analysis by Spence and S i h (2018).
Clinical ci cums ances o he agg esso and he ic im appea
o be impo an in IPH e en s, especially in he agg eso ’s
pa asuicidal sphe e, elemen s ha a e no so p ominen in IPV
iolence isk assessmen (Loinaz, 2017). Con a y o wha migh
be expec ed (Campbell e al., 2003), ac o s such as a his o y o
complain s ega ding p e ious episodes o iolence, p esence o
physical o sexual iolence, and use o weapons did no p o e o
be a di e en ia ing ac o be ween a non-le hal epea episode and
an IPH. The possible explana ion is ha he IPH sample used in
his s udy is de i ed no only om cases wi h p e iously epo ed
iolence (27.6%), bu also om o he s ha p esen di e en
cha ac e is ics, including 22% o homicide cases ollowed by suicide
(López-Osso io e al., 2018). The esul s in his sense would be
simila o hose ound in he compa ison o IPH and IPH in Po ugal
(Cunha & Gonçal es, 2019).
The H-Scale, composed o 13 ac o s, p esen s a sensi i i y o
84% and a speci ici y o 60%, alues sui able o his con ex o
applica ion. These alues a e simila o hose ob ained wi h he
DA-5 o he same objec i e: sensi i i y 86% and speci ici y 56%
(Messing, Campbell, & Snide , 2017; Snide e al., 2009). The balance
be ween sensi i i y and speci ici y alues is always a complica ed
decision ha mus be made on he basis o da a ob ained and
conside ing he con ex o applica ion (Messing & Campbell, 2016).
The speci ici y should no be o e y low alue in o de o a oid
o e s e ching police esou ces o he p o ec ion o ic ims. On
he o he hand, on line p o essionals need pa icula ly sensi i e
sc eening ools o de ec as many cases o in e es as possible,
e en hough alse posi i es a e inc easing mode a ely (Messing,
Campbell, & Snide , 2017). In subsequen assessmen s in he ield o
c iminal jus ice, whe e judicial decisions a e o g ea signi icance
o de endan s, g ea e ca e should be aken o ensu e ha he alue
o speci ici y is conside ed. The e ec size and p edic i e capabili y
(
OR
= 8.13 and AUC = .80), oge he wi h he es o disc imina ion
and calib a ion pa ame e s ob ained (PPV = .19 and NPV = .97),
a e also compa able o hose o le hal IPV p edic ion in he ew
s udies ha epo hem, such as he applica ion o Le hali y Sc een
(Messing, Campbell, Sulli an, e al., 2017). These esul s con i m
hose ob ained in o he esea ch (G aham e al., 2019) and show
ha he specializa ion o iolence isk assessmen ins umen s
achie es highe pe o mance pa ame e s (McEwan e al., 2019).
I is impo an o no e ha , unlike simila s udies such as hose
de eloped o VPR by es ima ing ecidi ism, in he cu en wo k
mos cases we e no unde police p o ec ion o o he ci cums ances
ha may modi y p edic i e alidi y esul s o he ins umen .
The impo an indings o his s udy ha e salien p ac ical
implica ions. Al hough he H-Scale can be used by di e en
p o essionals o es ima e he speci ic isk o IPH, in con ex s
whe e subsequen isk managemen is equi ed (such as policing),
he esul s ob ained show ha o imp o e combined es ima es
o ecidi ism and homicide, a dual mechanism o measu emen
is ecommended. The e o e, a i s esul is ob ained o isk
o ecidi ism in IPV wi h VPR5.0 and ano he speci ic esul o
Figu e 1. ROC Cu e o he H-Scale and Non-dual Fo m VPR5.0 o Es ima ing IPH
Risk. Valida ion Sample (
n
= 623).
1 - Speci ici y
Sensi i i y
AUC
SD p
95% CI
H-Scale .802 .032 .000 [.739, .865]
VPR5.0 .540 .039 .292 [.466, .616]
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
00.2 .4 .6 .8 1.0
H-Scale
VPR5.0
53
In ima e Pa ne Homicide Risk Assessmen by Police in Spain: The Dual P o ocol VPR
5.0
-H
isk o homicide using he H-Scale, which allows he le el o isk
o be au oma ically adjus ed om he wo es ima es: ecidi ism
and homicide. This en ails a special deg ee o p o ec ion o cases
iden i ied as mo e se ious (speci ically, in cases ini ially classi ied
as unapp ecia ed isk, low, and medium isk). This new combined
p ocedu e is called VPR5.0-H and p o ides in o ma ion on bo h isks
(IPV and IPH) independen ly and in eg a ed in o a single isk epo
(Sec e a ía de Es ado de Segu idad [SES, 2019]). Thus, a e he agen
assesses cu en VPR5.0 isk ac o s he VioGén Sys em p o ides a le el
o ecidi ism isk ha is e-e alua ed by he H-Scale. This second
au oma ic analysis makes i possible o iden i y he isk o IPH a
unapp ecia ed, low, and medium le els o VPR5.0 and o eclassi y
cases wi h he highes isk o IPH a le els highe han hose ini ially
ob ained, hus inc easing hei p o ec ion.
The di e en i ine a ies ha can lead o an ou come as iolen
as IPH lead us o conside he unknowns aised by many cases
and which may be in isible o adi ional p e en ion mechanisms
employed in he ace o non-le hal IPV agg essions. The esul s
o his s udy sugges ha calib a ion o alida ed ins umen s o
p edic IPV may be inadequa e o many po en ial cases o le hal
iolence, especially conside ing he possibili y ha he e had no
been a p e ious complain . While i canno be de ini i ely s a ed
ha he e a e many isk ac o s speci ic o IPH, his esea ch
highligh s ha main axis o analysis is o know as igo ously as
possible hei ele ance, which has been p esen ed in his s udy
h ough he size o he speci ic e ec o IPH isk ac o s. We
unde s and ha he new VPR5.0-H dual p ocedu e app oaches
his objec i e and also p o ides quali y in o ma ion o isk
managemen by epo ing mo e accu a e in o ma ion o he Jus ice
Sys em o addi ional isk assessmen s (Messing & Thalle , 2013).
The e alua ing agen will ob ain he inal esul in a compu e ized
o m and, in hose alua ions iden i ied as highe isk, he VioGén
Sys em quali a i ely complemen s he epo ha is usually sen
o he Jus ice Sys em on police isk assessmen . A u he pu pose
is o p opose a complemen a y isk assessmen by o ensic eam
p o essionals while he isk is managed by police o ice s. The
new ool is p esen ly calib a ed o use in he police ield, whe e
isk managemen assessmen akes p ecedence. Howe e , in
o he p o essional ields, such as he Jus ice Sys em, i s usage
migh bene i om ecalib a ion (Muñoz & López-Osso io, 2016).
Following in e na ional p e en i e ecommenda ions, wi hin he
amewo k o he ecological model, which con ibu es o “mo e
e icien and e ec i e isk assessmen s” (UNODC, 2018); Weil e al.,
2018), IPH isk p e en ion should no conclude wi h police ac ions
bu should be in eg a ed in a coo dina ed and syne gis ic manne
wi h o he ins i u ions.
The s udy p esen s some limi a ions ha should be conside ed.
Despi e homicide cases accoun ing o 20.9% o he o al numbe
o cases in he pe iod, which was a ep esen a i e pe cen age,
hey may no ha e included all o he casuis y o a phenomenon
as complex as IPH. The in o ma ion used o he analysis o isk
ac o s comes only om VPR5.0 indica o s and, as p e ious s udies
ha e indica ed, he e a e ce ainly o he ypes o impo an indica-
o s associa ed wi h IPHs ha ha e no been conside ed in his e-
sea ch because hey a e no accessible o police o ice s (Spence &
S i h, 2018). Fu u e esea ch should s udy hese aspec s in o de o
de e mine whe he he e a e o he ypes o isk ac o s ha make
i possible o de ec and p e en hese e en s, especially in heal h
o social con ex s, ha make i easie o p o ec women who do no
epo o he police. VPR5.0-H is a compu e ized ool used by police
o ces in Spain, a ac ha limi s he eplicabili y o he esul s by
eams ou side he VioGén Sys em. The use ulness o he a iables
ha comp ise he p edic ion sys em in applica ions dis inc om
he cu en one is a challenge ha would allow us o deepen ou
knowledge o ypes o agg esso samples in he u u e.
Con lic o In e es
The au ho s o his a icle decla e no con lic o in e es .
Re e ences
Adhia, A., Ke nic, M. A., Hemenway, D., Va ilala, M. S., & Ri a a, F. P. (2019).
In ima e pa ne homicide o adolescen s.
JAMA Pedia ics
. h ps://
doi.o g/10.1001/jamapedia ics.2019.0621
Bel age, H., & Rying, M. (2004). Cha ac e is ics o spousal homicide
pe pe a o s: A s udy o all cases o spousal homicide in Sweden 1990-
1999.
C iminal Beha iou and Men al Heal h, 14
(2), 121-133. h ps://
doi.o g/10.1002/cbm.577
Bel age, H., S and, S., S o ey, J. E., Gibas, A. L., K opp, P. R., & Ha , S. D.
(2012). Assessmen and managemen o isk o in ima e pa ne
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