Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y 98 (2023) 104805
A ailable online 19 July 2023
2210-6707/© 2023 The Au ho (s). Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-
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Vulne abili y assessmen and ca ego iza ion agains hea wa es o he
Bilbao his o ic a ea
Lau a Quesada-Ganuza
a
,
*
, Lei e Ga mendia
a
, I an zu Al a ez
b
, Edua do Roji
a
a
Depa men o Mechanical Enginee ing, Facul y o Enginee ing in Bilbao, Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y UPV/EHU, Plaza To es Que edo 1, 48013 Bilbao, Spain
b
Depa men o G aphic Design and Enginee ing P ojec s, Facul y o Enginee ing in Bilbao, Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y UPV/EHU, Plaza Ingenie o To es Que edo
s/n, Building II, Bilbao 48013, Spain
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Clima e haza ds
Mul i-c i e ia decision analysis
GIS mapping
Cul u al he i age p ese a ion
U ban planning
Comp ehensi e isk assessmen
ABSTRACT
Clima e change is h ea ening u ban cul u al he i age’s p ese a ion and su i al. To imp o e he esilience o
u ban sys ems, planning decision-making p ocesses mus conside he isks ha clima e change poses o he i age.
Ne e heless, despi e he ex ensi e body o esea ch on clima e- ela ed haza ds, he e emains a signi ican
knowledge de iciency ela ed o he assessmen o isks ha conside s hea wa es and his o ic u ban si es.
This s udy’s p ima y objec i e is o use Geog aphic In o ma ion Sys ems (GIS) da a o analyse how his o ic
u ban loca ions and hea wa es in e ac , as bo h u ban sys ems and he i age a eas. Socioeconomic, cul u al,
go e nmen al, and physical aspec s o he sys em a e conside ed o a holis ic app oach. Key pe o mance in-
dica o s, c i e ia, and equi emen s pe aining o key ulne abili ies o his o ic u ban a eas a e iden i ied o
unde ake a ulne abili y assessmen me hodology, and app aised using he MIVES me hodology, a Mul i
C i e ia Decision Making Me hodology (MCDM), o achie e his goal. Addi ionally, a educed and da a-
cons ained e alua ion is p o ided h ough a ca ego iza ion, o bo h buildings and public spaces. The ca ego-
iza ion p ocess and comple e me hodology a e discussed along wi h he esul s o i s applica ion o a GIS-based
model in Bilbao’s his o ic dis ic (Basque Coun y, Spain). This s udy seeks o be ep oducible and be a ool o
u u e global s udies.
1. In oduc ion
Acco ding o he In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change
(IPCC), he wo ld’s empe a u e will ise by a leas 1.5 ◦C du ing he
nex 20 yea s (IPCC, 2022). Since global wa ming and clima e change
a e una oidable, me opoli an egions and hei su oundings ypically
expe ience he g ea es empe a u es (IPCC, 2022). This empe a u e
ise poses a se ious h ea o u ban a eas, which is exace ba ed by o he
en i onmen al disas e s like sea le el ise, mo e equen and se e e
hea wa es, equen and excessi e p ecipi a ion, and esul ing loods.
The IPCC also no es ha he des uc ion o legacy will esul in he loss o
adi ional cus oms, a gene al sense o place, and damage o he physical
in as uc u e o communi ies (IPCC, 2014). The e o e, his highligh s
he need o and he impo ance o isk assessmen me hods o he
p io i iza ion o adap a ion s a egies and de elopmen owa ds mo e
esilien ci ies, wi h his o ic a eas as a ocus. (Quesada-Ganuza e al.,
2021). As his o ic a eas ep esen he sense o place and he iden i y o
ci ies, being essels o hei angible and in angible his o y, hey deal
wi h challenges ha dese e special a en ion. Hence, isk and ulne -
abili y assessmen and hei ole on disas e mi iga ion and adap a ion
plans should be in eg a ed in u ban planning and conse a ion plans o
con on he u u e challenges ha clima e change p esen s, and ensu e
a sus ainable de elopmen o ci ies as well as a esilien buil en i on-
men . Cu en ly, he exis ence o as da abases ensu es he easibili y o
ulne abili y and isk analysis and enables planne s o e idence-based
decision making ha will enhance holis ic managemen and conse a-
ion s a egies.
In ecen yea s, signi ican e o s ha e been made o es ima e he
ulne abili y o cul u al he i age and his o ic cen es o clima e change
impac s, including he speci ic h ea o hea wa es. O ganiza ions such
as UNESCO and ICOMOS ha e played ins umen al oles in add essing
his c i ical issue. UNESCO, as a global leade in he i age p ese a ion,
has ecognized he need o unde s and and mi iga e he ulne abili ies
o cul u al he i age si es o clima e change. Th ough a ious esea ch
endea ou s, epo s, and policy documen s, UNESCO has shed ligh on
he mul i ace ed impac s o clima e change on Wo ld He i age Si es
* Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add ess: [email p o ec ed] (L. Quesada-Ganuza).
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/scs
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104805
Recei ed 24 Ma ch 2023; Recei ed in e ised o m 7 June 2023; Accep ed 14 July 2023
Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y 98 (2023) 104805
2
(Ma kham e al., 2016; UNESCO, 2008). While he e is a lack o speci ic
s udies ocused solely on es ima ing ulne abili y o hea wa es,
UNESCO’s comp ehensi e ini ia i es p o ide aluable insigh s in o he
b oade ulne abili y o cul u al he i age and his o ic cen e s o
clima e- ela ed isks, encompassing aspec s such as physical, social,
economic, and en i onmen al dimensions, a bo h local and global
scales (UNESCO, 2008).
Simila ly, ICOMOS, he In e na ional Council on Monumen s and
Si es, has been ac i ely in ol ed in add essing he challenges posed by
clima e change o cul u al he i age. Th ough i s dedica ed Clima e
Change and He i age Wo king G oup, ICOMOS has spea headed e o s
o comp ehend and mi iga e he ulne abili ies o cul u al he i age si es
o clima e- ela ed haza ds, aligning wi h he b oade objec i e o
assessing and managing he isks aced by cul u al he i age and his o ic
cen es in he con ex o clima e change (Das ge di e al., 2019). Thei
wo k emphasizes he impo ance o in eg a ing clima e esilience s a-
egies and adap i e measu es in o he i age conse a ion p ac ices,
ensu ing he p ese a ion and esilience o hese i eplaceable cul u al
asse s in he ace o inc easing clima e unce ain ies. In compa ison o
he b oade ini ia i es unde aken by UNESCO and ICOMOS, he s udy
p esen ed in his pape con ibu es o he knowledge by speci ically
ocusing on he ulne abili y assessmen o his o ic u ban a eas o hea
wa es. By conside ing he unique cha ac e is ics and complexi ies o
his o ic buildings and hei u ban en i onmen s o his speci ic haza d,
his s udy o e s aluable insigh s in o he speci ic challenges and isks
aced by hese a eas, complemen ing he b oade unde s anding p o-
ided by he men ioned ini ia i es.He i age mus be conside ed a cul-
u al capi al o he communi ies when analysing he isk o a changing
clima e and i s esul ing ex eme haza ds, as i is essen ial o build a
sus ainable link be ween ci izens and hei en i onmen and o enhance
a eeling o place and belonging (B abec & Chil on, 2015). Cul u al
legacy is he connec ion o he pas ha allows us o li e in he p esen . I
also shapes ou iden i y and ou ela ionship o he en i onmen and he
places we li e (Ha ison, 2010). As a esul , cul u al he i age is a c ucial
esou ce o bo h sus ainable de elopmen and he c ea ion and appli-
ca ion o e ec i e solu ions o mi iga e he impac s o clima e change.
One o he main haza ds ha impac on his o ic u ban a eas a e hea
wa es, u he mo e he in ensi y and p obabili y o ex eme hea wa es
ha e been inc easing wo ldwide due o clima e change (IPCC, 2022;
Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004). Hea wa es a e a conce ning haza d o u ban
popula ion since he isk om hem will wo sen o ci ies and in a-
s uc u e (IPCC, 2022), wi h a minimum o hal o he wo ld’s popula-
ion, conside ing he bes case RCP 2.6 scena io, exposed o ex eme
pe iods o hea and humidi y his cen u y (Zhao e al., 2021).
In spi e o he high le el o conce n ega ding clima e change impac s
on he i age; and he abundance o li e a u e add essing he need o
esea ch in he a ea (B abec & Chil on, 2015; Quesada-Ganuza e al.,
2021; Sesana e al., 2021), me hodologies o he unde s anding o he
impac s o clima e change on cul u al he i age and his o ic a eas wi h a
holis ic app oach (conside ing all aspec s o in angible and angible
he i age wi hin he u ban sys em) a e a no iceable gap in knowledge
(Quesada-Ganuza e al., 2021). Al hough hey a e some examples o
me hodologies ha conside he mo e adi ional h ea s, as ea hquakes
and loods (Alessand a Gandini e al., 2021), he e has no been a isk
assessmen app oach o he impac o hea wa es and he u ban hea
island phenomenon on cul u al he i age (Quesada-Ganuza e al., 2021).
In esponse o his c i ical gap, ou s udy add esses he need o a
comp ehensi e isk assessmen me hodology ha speci ically ocuses on
he ulne abili y o his o ic a eas o hea wa es. Building upon ou
p e ious wo k and sys ema ic li e a u e e iew on isk assessmen
me hodologies in his o ic a eas (Quesada-Ganuza e al., 2021), which
add essed he gap ega ding hea wa es, we in eg a ed indings om
s udies ha examine a ious aspec s in luencing ulne abili y o hea
wa es in u ban a eas (Elbondi a e al., 2021; Ma e al., 2023; Min e al.,
2019; Ra ankhah e al., 2019; San amou is e al., 2015; Zhang e al.,
2022). This comp ehensi e e iew in o med he selec ion o indica o s
and c i e ia in ou me hodology, ensu ing a holis ic app oach ha
conside s he mul i ace ed na u e o ulne abili y in his o ic a eas. By
combining hese wo lines o enqui y, we con ibu e o ad ancing
knowledge in he ield and p o ide a p ac ical ool o decision-make s
and s akeholde s in ol ed in he i age conse a ion and u ban planning.
By inco po a ing he impac s o hea wa es and he u ban hea island
e ec in o ou me hodology, we con ibu e o ad ancing knowledge in
he ield and p o ide p ac ical ools o decision-make s and s ake-
holde s in ol ed in he i age conse a ion and u ban planning.
The e is no single c i e ia o wha cons i u es a hea wa e because
h esholds di e by geog aphy and clima e. Acco ding o he Wo ld
Me eo ological O ganiza ion (WMO) guidance on hea -heal h wa ning
(WMO-No.1142) (UNEP & WMO, 2007; Wo ld Me eo ological O gani-
za ion, 2018), a hea wa e is de ined as a s e ch o unusually ho and
d y o ho and humid wea he ha las s a leas wo o h ee days and has
a no iceable e ec on human ac i i ies. Such ex eme e en s b ough on
by unusually ho pe sis en empe a u es ha e signi ican e ec s on
ecosys ems, he economy, and human mo ali y (IPCC, 2022; Meehl &
Tebaldi, 2004). Hea wa es ampli y he u ban hea island e ec (San-
amou is, 2019), and combined wi h he inc ease on u ban popula ion
and g ow h o he buil en i onmen , i will po en ially a ec hal o he
popula ion in he u u e (Huang e al., 2019; Zhao e al., 2018). The
u ban hea island e ec indica es how he mo phology o an u ban e-
gion in luences hea as shade and en ila ion, he echnical and
physical-chemical p ope ies o u ban ea u es, and ma e ials, as well as
he ypology and design o g een spaces, a ec i s se e i y (Li & Bou--
Zeid, 2013; Oke e al., 2017). Wind mo emen , ene gy abso p ion, and
su aces’ capaci y o e lec long wa e adia ion back in o space a e all
in luenced by he layou and ma e ials o ci ies (Ga land, 2010; Oke
e al., 2017).
The pu pose o his pape is o assess he ulne abili y o his o ic
u ban a eas o hea wa es using he MIVES me hodology ia a GIS
model, wi h he addi ion o a ca ego iza ion p opose o acili a e la ge-
scale analysis. MIVES is a mul ic i e ia analysis amewo k ha com-
bines Mul i C i e ia Decision Making Me hodology (MCDM) wi h Mul i-
A ibu e U ili y Theo y (MAUT) inco po a ing he alue unc ion (VF)
concep and assigning weigh s by he means o he Analy ic Hie a chy
P ocess (AHP) (Pujadas e al., 2017). Fo he pu pose o a holis ic
assessmen , he his o ic u ban a ea is conside ed wi h a mul iscale
app oach, assessing bo h he buildings and he u ban spaces. Hence, his
manusc ip p esen s h ee sec ions. The i s one app oaches he basis
and scope o he esea ch, in oducing he MIVES me hodology used in
he s udy, as well as he modeling and da a managemen s a egy using
GIS. The second sec ion con ains he main esea ch, he p oposed
ca ego iza ion and i s applica ion o ulne abili y assessmen in he
his o ic u ban a ea o Bilbao. The inal and hi d sec ion compa es he
esul s o he ca ego iza ion ool in he Bilbao case s udy wi h he
ulne abili y assessmen ca ied ou wi hou he use o a ca ego iza ion
app oach.
2. MIVES and da a managemen
When i comes o decision-making and he p io i iza ion o solu ions,
se e al MCDM ha e been de eloped o e he las decades (Kabi e al.,
2014), in sea ch o a sys ema ic amewo k ha is able o e lec he
mul idimensional na u e o he eali y. In a mul i-c i e ia me hod, he
p oblem is disassembled in o i s componen pa s in o de o analyse
each one (Pujadas e al., 2017). Fo he de elopmen o his s udy, he
MIVES me hodology was chosen.
2.1. MIVES me hodology
In o de o e alua e sus ainabili y in cons uc ion, a mul i-c i e ia
me hodology called MIVES was c ea ed (Aguado e al., 2012; Pons &
Aguado, 2012; San-Jos´
e Lombe a & Cuad ado Rojo, 2010; San-Jos´
e
Lombe a & Ga ucho Ap ea, 2010). The Analy ic Hie a chy P ocess
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y 98 (2023) 104805
3
(AHP) is used o assign weigh s in his sys em, which was join ly c ea ed
by he Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y (UPV/EHU), he Poly echnic
Uni e si y o Ca alonia (UPC) and Tecnalia, combines, MCDM wi h he
VF no ion. MIVES is used o homogenise se e al a iable ypes measu ed
wi h a ious uni s. I conside s and ela i ely compa es bo h quan i a-
i e and quali a i e a iables by ans o ming hem o a compa able
uni . The e o e, i p o ides a amewo k in which en i onmen al, social,
economic, and echnical indica o s can be aken in o conside a ion and
Fig. 1. E alua ion o al e na i es in MIVES ( aken om Vi˜
nolas P a e al. 2009).
Fig. 2. Di e en alue unc ions (adap ed om San-Jos´
e Lombe a and Cuad ado Rojo 2010).
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y 98 (2023) 104805
4
compa ed in eg a ing hem in o a single index.
The choice ( o be made) is ini ially de ined. The p oblem o be sol ed
is iden i ied and de ined du ing his s age. Following he de ini ion o
he decision ee and de elopmen o he equi emen s, he c i e ia (sub-
c i e ia) and indica o s a e selec ed based on he na u e and ci cum-
s ances o he p ojec . Following ha , he al e na i es (po en ial solu-
ions) o he gi en p oblem a e de ined; he quan i y o al e na i es will
depend on he na u e o he p oblem. I is o g ea impo ance o poin
ou ha , unlike o he ools ha assess o p io i ize al e na i es ( o
example AHP), he assignmen o hese al e na i es can be de eloped
be o e o a e he de ini ion o he model (decision ee), which is a
di e en ia ing ac o wi h espec o o he e alua ion app oaches.
Finally, wi h he equi emen s, c i e ia and indica o s and hei
weigh s al eady de ined, he alues o each o hei al e na i es a e
ob ained using alue unc ions, o ca y ou he hei e alua ion and
make he bes decision. The assessmen is ca ied ou o he h ee le els
o he decision making ee: indica o s, c i e ia and equi emen s
(Fig. 1).
The objec i e o VF is o compa e he e alua ion o he indica o s
using di e en measu emen uni s. The VF’s abili y o con e a a iable
o a ibu e’s quan i ica ion in o a dimensionless a iable be ween 0 and
1 makes i possible o weigh he a ious assessmen s o each o he
indica o s. A alue unc ion is sugges ed o each indica o o he
e alua ion s age. Fo each indica ion, his alue unc ion, which anges
om 0 o 1 on he o dina e axis, shows he si ua ion o ze o alua ion o
he highes alua ion (sa u a ion). On he abscissa axis is he indica o
a iable, which, in he case o being an a ibu e, can be con e ed in o a
a iable (Fig. 2).
Fi e pa ame e s ha make up he alue unc ion can be adjus ed o
p oduce a wide ange o shapes: s aigh , S-shaped, conca e, o con ex
(Fig. 2).
2.2. Mul iscale da a model and da a managemen
A mul iscale da a model o he managemen o in o ma ion is
necessa y as pa o he me hodological app oach o suppo he p ocess
o decision making and p o ide p ope isualiza ion o he esul s. A
da a model wi h bo h geome ic and seman ic da a is necessa y. This
model will ga he he in o ma ion necessa y o bo h he ca ego iza ion
p ocess and he ull MIVES ulne abili y assessmen p ocess, bo h
limi ed bay da a a ailabili y and he cha ac e is ics o each case s udy,
bu aiming o eplicabili y (Fig. 3).
The objec i e o he da a models is, he e o e, o p o ide ep esen-
a i e in o ma ion o ulne abili y wi hin he his o ic a ea o suppo he
p io i iza ion o adap i e and p e en a i e in e en ions and s a egies.
GIS, pa icula ly wi h he use o QGIS, was chosen as he ool o
c ea ing he models. GIS is a ca ego y o da abase ha combines so -
wa e ools o ga he ing, p ocessing, and displaying da a wi h spa ial
in o ma ion. As a ool, i p o ides he oppo uni y o wo k wi h geo-
me ic and seman ic in o ma ion a di e en le els ha can be easily
in eg a ed wi h sa elli e da a, as well as p o ide in e ope abili y wi h
he geog aphic da a bases o di e en egions.
3. Decision-making p ocess
Cha ac e izing he p obable e ec s o hea wa es and he u ban hea
island on he componen s ha make up he his o ic u ban a ea led o he
needs, c i e ia, and indica o s ha make up he decision ee. De e -
mining he impac chain using he AR5 amewo k would he e o e be
he i s s ep. The AR5 amewo k’s ulne abili y no ion is c ucial o
cha ac e ising isk, and i s e alua ion en ails ai s and p ocedu es ha
can be assessed in a ious ways depending on he discipline (Adge ,
2006; B ooks, 2003). As a esul , acco ding o he AR5 de ini ion,
ulne abili y is he endency o p opensi y o an elemen exposed o
ex eme e en s (such as clima e change e en s) o be nega i ely
impac ed, and his ulne abili y along wi h haza d and exposu e will
de ine he isk. Acco ding o he IPCC, ulne abili y includes sensi i i y
o he isk and an inabili y o adap o clima e change’s nega i e e ec s
(IPCC, 2014). While he concep o sensi i i y is p e y simple, he
de ini ion o coping capaci y a ies depending on he sys em ha is
Fig. 3. Gene a ion o he GIS models o he implemen a ion and isualiza ion o he me hodology.
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y 98 (2023) 104805
5
being e alua ed. In he AR5, coping capaci y is “ he abili y o people,
ins i u ions, o ganiza ions, and sys ems, using a ailable skills, alues,
belie s, esou ces, and oppo uni ies, o add ess, manage, and o e come
ad e se condi ions in he sho o medium e m”. I is impo an o no e
ha coping capaci y should no be con used wi h adap i e capaci y,
which pe ains o he medium and long- e m capaci y o adap and
adjus o changing condi ions, and i is no conside ed as pa o
ulne abili y assessmen . Howe e , adap i e capaci y plays a c ucial
ole in o e all esilience, as i con ibu es o a sys em’s abili y o abso b
and eco e om shocks and s esses. Following his app oach, he
impac chain esul s as shown in Fig. 4 and he equi emen s di ided
in o haza d, exposu e and ulne abili y. The main ecep o o his
assessmen will be he buildings and he public spaces, in a wo old
app oach, conside ing hei physical, cul u al, socio-economic and
en i onmen al cha ac e is ics when assessing hei ulne abili y o hea
wa es. This means ha e en i he main ecep o s a e he buildings/
u ban spaces hemsel es, no only hei physical deg ada ion om hea
wa e condi ions will be conside ed bu also he he mal com o will be
a main conside a ion. Necessa y o a holis ic pe spec i e, he mal
com o is ele an o he impac i has on he use s along wi h he e ec
on he use and, he e o e, on he socio-economic, en i onmen al and
cul u al aspec s o bo h buildings and u ban spaces.
In conclusion, he decision-making p ocess p o ides a da a model o
his o ic u ban a eas ha conside s ulne abili y ollowing he la es
app oaches o clima e change, and s uc u es he in o ma ion o p o ide
an accessible and eplicable amewo k o decision-making and he
p io i iza ion o in e en ions. The me hodology p esen ed in his s udy
ocuses on he e olu ion and de ini ion o ulne abili y indica o s and
con ex ualizes i o his o ic a eas and u ban he i age.
The modeling s a egy is p oposed in wo ways: one, h ough he
ca ego iza ion me hod, and wo, h ough he ull modeling including
indi idual da a o e e y elemen . The ca ego iza ion aims o gene a e a
numbe o sample buildings and open spaces ha accu a ely ep esen
he his o ic a ea. This me hod p o ides a comple e assessmen wi h
limi ed da a, educing analysis ime and esou ces. Hence, he ca ego ies
a e gene a ed using only he in o ma ion o indica o s ha be e
cha ac e ise he elemen s unde assessmen . A e wa ds, he selec ed
indica o s a e ed wi h he sample elemen s and he esul s ex apola ed
o all he elemen s wi hin he ca ego y.
The ulne abili y assessmen includes 11 indica o s in he case o he
buildings and 8 o he public spaces, which a e assessed by VFs o
ob ain dimensionless alues om 0 o 1. Weigh s a e hen assigned
h ough he AHP by s ablishing he ela i e impo ance, h ough pai -
wise compa ison o he di e en le els o he decision ee. The anal-
ysis equi emen s o ce us o use a mul i-c i e ia me hodology and
MIVES’ capaci y o measu e in o ma ion o a di e en na u e in he
same language make i sui able o ou objec i e. In addi ion, i also
allows using he ca ego iza ion and is a iendly ool due o i s ee-
shaped display and he cla i y wi h which he in o ma ion and e alua-
ion a e displayed.
When using he classi ica ion app oach, da a will be ga he ed o
de e mine he sample le el’s suscep ibili y. The nex s age is o compu e
ulne abili y o each sample building and public a ea, ep esen ing
each ca ego y, and ex apola e ha alue o he elemen s alling unde
ha ca ego y. Resul ing on he ulne abili y o he his o ic a ea. The
ulne abili y will be speci ic o each elemen esul ing on maps
pic u ing he ulne abili y index le el.
As a second s ep, he ull ulne abili y assessmen will be imple-
men ed, wi hou a ca ego iza ion p ocess, using he ull indica o s lis
and he da a collec ed o e e y single elemen , bo h buildings and open
spaces, and he esul s compa ed o bo h me hods.
Following he MIVES app oach se be o e in his s udy, he de ini ion
o he p oblem and decision o be aken is he i s s ep. The scope o
his me hodology is o iden i y, objec i ely, buildings and public spaces
as elemen s o he his o ic u ban a ea, ha a e mo e ulne able o hea
wa es and he u ban hea island e ec . This concludes wi h a decision-
making ee o med by he sensi i eness and coping capaci y o he el-
emen s as he wo main equi emen s, ollowed by he c i e ia ha
conside s he di e en sys ems o he holis ic app oach, and he indi-
idual indica o s, ollowing he impac chain on Fig. 4.
3.1. Vulne abili y o buildings
The sensi i eness equi emen assesses he deg ee o which a
building is a ec ed by a hea wa e e en . As depending on he cha ac-
e is ics o he building i s esponse o he impac will a y. Se e al
aspec s a e conside ed o measu e i s sensi i i y wi h a holis ic
pe spec i e. The e o e, he ollowing c i e ia a e de ined conside ing he
cha ac e is ics o he buildings: en i onmen al, social, physical, eco-
nomic and cul u al alue.
The en i onmen al sensi i i y o he building e e s o he cha ac-
e is ics o he immedia e su ounding o he building ha a ec i s
he mal beha iou , and, he e o e, he he mal com o inside. In his
case, he sola adia ion o he en elope and he acous ic pollu ion ha
su ounds he building whe e chosen as he indica o s. The sola adi-
a ion hea s he en elope o he building, a ec ing he he mal com o
inside. The acous ic pollu ion su ounding he building is p o en o
educe he willingness o he inhabi an s o open he windows, and
he e o e, he abili y o en ila e he in e io o he building du ing he
hou s o less hea (Nú˜
nez Pei ´
o e al., 2020).
The social sensi i i y c i e ia indica es he cha ac e is ics o he in-
habi an s ha makes hem mo e sensi i e o hea wa es. Fo his, h ee
Fig. 4. Rela ionship be ween he sugges ed impac chain o his o ic u ban a eas and he IPCC AR5 me hodology o isk assessmen (Quesada-Ganuza e al., 2022).
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
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6
indica o s ha e been de ined, he densi y o he popula ion esiding
wi hin he building, he amoun o ulne able popula ion han can su e
ad e se consequences om educed he mal com o (depending on he
age g oup hey belong o and he associa ed ulne abili y le el), and he
exis ence and amoun o insula ion in he en elope o he building.
Fo he physical sensi i i y c i e ia ha conside s he deg ada ion o
he building om hea wa e condi ions, wo indica o s a e de ined: da e
o cons uc ion and s a e o conse a ion. The da e o cons uc ion
Table 1
Summa y o he alues o each al e na i e o indica o s ega ding he ulne abili y o public space.
Fig. 5. VF o ele ance o he public space.
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
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7
p o ides he his o ical ypology and, consequen ly, is linked o ma e ials
deg ada ion due o empe a u e and humidi y ex emes.
The economic and cul u al alue c i e ia a e composed o one indi-
ca o each. Economic sensi i i y will be measu ed by he p ima y use o
he building, conside ing he e ec ha educed he mal com o inside
can ha e on i , a ec ing i s no mal use. Fo cul u al alue, he link o he
building o his o ical e en s o adi ions will be conside ed.
As o he coping capaci y equi emen , i e e s o he abili y o he
sys em, in his case he building, o ace he possible impac o he
ex eme e en in a e y sho pe iod. In his case, i is composed o wo
c i e ion, each o hem conside ing one indica o . The i s one is
accessibili y o he buildings, wi h he indica o being he p esence o an
ele a o . This conside s he possibili y o e acua ing po en ial ic ims o
hea s okes o simila heal h p oblems caused by hea wa e condi ions.
In he case o he second c i e ia, cul u al alue, i conside s p o ec ion
le el as an indica o . P o ec ion le el o buildings in his o ic a eas limi
he in e en ions and he possible solu ions ha can be implemen ed o
mi iga e he impac o hea wa es on buildings and hei inhabi an s.
Fig. 6. Final decision ee o buildings wi h weigh s.
Fig. 7. Final decision ee o public spaces wi h weigh s.
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8
3.2. Vulne abili y o public space
The sensi i eness o public spaces, such as s ee s o squa es, o hea
wa es condi ions a y depending on hei physical, en i onmen al and
socio-cul u al cha ac e is ics. This cha ac e is ics a ec he he mal
com o wi hin his spaces and he people using hem. Hence, he
sensi i eness o public spaces is composed o h ee c i e ia, physical,
en i onmen al and socio-cul u al.
Albedo, he No malized Di e ence Vege a ion Index (NDVI), and he
Sky View Fac o (SVF) a e among he indica o s ha desc ibe he space’s
physical ea u es. Albedo, which anges om 0 o 1 o lowes and
maximum e lec ion, is he pe cen age o incoming adia ion ha a
su ace e lec s (And ´
es-Anaya e al., 2021; E ell e al., 2012). The
p esence and densi y o ege a ion in a egion, which con ibu es o hea
mi iga ion, a e de e mined using emo e sensing measu es, equen ly
om sa elli e pho og aphy, using he s aigh o wa d g aphical indica-
o known as NDVI. Finally, SVF is he main pa ame e in de e mining
he phenomenon known as u ban canyon (Ga land, 2010). I add esses
he ela ionship be ween he p opo ions o an u ban space wi h he
endency o ha space o s o e hea (Di ksen e al., 2019).
En i onmen al c i e ia has as indica o s sola adia ion and ai
pollu ion. In ense sola adia ion is a common indica o when assessing
hea wa es, as mo e hou s o di ec sola adia ion is di ec ly linked o
lowe he mal com o . Acco ding o esea ch, ozone le els ise in
en i onmen s wi h high empe a u es, s ong sola adia ion, and
leng hy dayligh hou s. Acco ding o Py gou e al. (2018), each o hese
dis inc me eo ological ai s is connec ed o hea wa es, wi h high
ozone le els being haza dous o human heal h (Py gou e al., 2018;
S edman, 2004).
Fo socio cul u al c i e ia, wo indica o s a e conside ed: ele ance
o he space and i s link o his o ical e en s o adi ions. Bo h o hese
indica o s measu e he amoun o people using he space and i s ele-
ance o li e wi hin he his o ic a ea, being, he e o e wo s a ec ed by
hea wa es condi ions and a educ ion in he mal com o . The numbe
and densi y o g ound loo comme cial ac i i y wi hin a public space
measu e he ele ance o he space.
Fo he coping capaci y equi emen in he case o he public spaces,
he accessibili y c i e ion measu es hei abili y o espond o he e en
in a sho pe iod. In he case o his o ic a eas, s ee s end o be e y
na ow, so accessibili y in case o an eme gency is an impo an
conside a ion. Hence, he indica o o hese c i e ia is i he space is
accessible o i e igh e s, in case o a i e (mo e equen du ing ho e
pe iods) o he need o e acua e a pe son ic im o a hea s oke o
simila heal h p oblems caused by hea wa e condi ions (Ande son &
Bell, 2011; Rasilla & Fe n´
andez de A ´
oyabe, 2003).
To sum up, he decision ee o public space ulne abili y (Table 1)
is di ided in o 4 c i e ia and 8 indica o s. Fo a comp ehensi e discus-
sion on he de ini ion o he weigh o each indica o , he es ablishmen
Fig. 8. Indica o s ca ego iza ion p ocess o he buildings.
Fig. 9. Indica o s ca ego iza ion p ocess o he public spaces.
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o subca ego ies, and he de e mina ion o sub- anges, please e e o
Quesada-Ganuza (2022).
To ensu e he eplicabili y and applicabili y o he chosen indica o s
beyond he scope o his s udy, a igo ous selec ion p ocess was
employed, guided by he p inciples o eplicabili y, aceabili y, and
obus ness (RACE). By adhe ing o hese p inciples, he selec ed in-
dica o s a e designed o be adap able and usable in a ious case s udies,
enabling compa isons and acili a ing he eplica ion o ulne abili y
assessmen s in di e en con ex s.
The decision ee o public space ulne abili y, ou lined in Table 1,
encompasses ou c i e ia and eigh indica o s ca e ully chosen o cap-
u e he di e se dimensions o ulne abili y. Each indica o ’s weigh ,
he es ablishmen o subca ego ies, and he de e mina ion o sub- anges
we e ho oughly de ined, ensu ing anspa ency and consis ency in he
assessmen p ocess. The comp ehensi e documen a ion o he indica o
selec ion and ca ego iza ion p ocess in Quesada-Ganuza (2022) u he
enhances he ep oducibili y and obus ness o he me hodology
(Quesada-Ganuza, 2022).
A panel o 20 expe s was engaged o e alua e he op ions, and he
alue unc ions, indica o s, and c i e ia we e weigh ed based on he
mean o hei esponses. The panel o 20 expe s engaged in his s udy
consis ed o a di e se and mul idisciplina y g oup, comp ising expe s
om a ious ields ele an o he analysis. among hem we e 10 engi-
nee s specializing in cons uc ion, mechanical sys ems, ma e ials, and
ela ed disciplines and expe ience in isk assessmen . The emaining
panel membe s included 6 a chi ec s specializing in he i age manage-
men , u ban planning, and a chi ec u al design, 1 geog aphe , and 3
expe s in u ban s udies and u ban managemen , wi h a specializa ion in
clima e and u ban esilience.
The selec ion o expe s was ca e ully done o ensu e a
comp ehensi e and well- ounded ep esen a ion o knowledge and
pe spec i es. Thei di e se backg ounds and expe ise con ibu ed o a
ho ough analysis o he indica o s and c i e ia. To e alua e he indi-
ca o al e na i es and c i e ia, he panel membe s pa icipa ed in a
comp ehensi e ques ionnai e. This ques ionnai e was speci ically
designed o assess he ela i e impo ance o each indica o , allowing
he expe s o assign weigh s based on hei p o essional judgemen .
Th ough hei collec i e inpu , he panel p o ided aluable insigh s and
expe ise ha enhanced he accu acy and obus ness o he ulne abili y
assessmen me hodology.
The ollowing phase in he MIVES echnique was he de ini ion o he
weigh o each indica o , c i e ion, and equi emen in o de o de e -
mine hei ela i e ele ance using AHP and o gene a e he ulne a-
bili y index. This was done a e he alue unc ions we e speci ied.
This p ocess esul ed in he ollowing decision making ees o bo h
buildings and open spaces (Figs. 6 and 7).
4. The p ocess o ca ego ising he building and public space
s ock
When i comes o i s ep oducibili y and a quick and da a-ligh
e alua ion, ca ego iza ion is a e y impo an phase in a isk assess-
men p ocess. I gi es con idence when achie ing gene al in o ma ion
abou asse ulne abili y on a mac o-scale. This me hod helps o achie e
an assessmen o isk o ulne abili y when ewe da a is a ailable, by
c ea ing ep esen a i e ca ego ies o he elemen s wi h ewe indica o s
and, hen, building he es using sample elemen s o each ca ego y.
A s a is ical app oach may be used o analyse a la ge and di e se
s ock o buildings and public places, such as an u ban a ea, wi h he goal
o desc ibing all he asse s using a che ypes o sample asse s. Sample
Fig. 10. His o ic dis ic o he ci y o Bilbao, he chosen a ea o he s udy.
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
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16
a lowe alue han 0.3. In he case o public spaces, 2.8% p esen ed a
ulne abili y highe han 0.5, 27.1% being o e 0.4. Finally, 19.63% o
he public spaces p esen ed a ulne abili y lowe han 0.2.
O e all, his s udy demons a es he applica ion o a obus ulne -
abili y assessmen me hodology in he his o ic a ea o Bilbao, p o iding
insigh s in o he ulne abili y le els o buildings and public spaces. The
me hodology’s abili y o in eg a e di e se da a sou ces and acili a e
objec i e measu emen s ensu es i s eplicabili y and applicabili y in
o he con ex s.
In addi ion o he ulne abili y assessmen esul s, u he analysis
was conduc ed o iden i y clus e s wi hin he da a, highligh ing he
c i e ia and indica o s ha had a signi ican impac on he o e all
ulne abili y. Th ough clus e ing echniques, i was e ealed ha
ce ain c i e ia and indica o s played a mo e p ominen ole in de e -
mining ulne abili y le els in he his o ic a ea o Bilbao. Fo ins ance,
indica o s ela ed o he u ban hea island e ec , such as he sky iew
ac o and sola adia ion, eme ged as in luen ial ac o s in unde -
s anding he ulne abili y o he u ban spaces o hea wa es. In he case
o he buildings, he p esence o ma e ials p one o deg ada ion linked o
he cons uc ion yea o he buildings, along wi h he sola adia ion
hey ecei e compose wo o he mo e ele an componen s o ulne -
abili y in he case s udy.
Building upon his clus e ing analysis, a compa a i e assessmen was
pe o med o con ex ualize he indings o his s udy wi hin he b oade
li e a u e on ulne abili y assessmen me hodologies. In he absence o
di ec compa isons wi h s udies on hea wa es in his o ic a eas, a
compa a i e assessmen was conduc ed wi h o he haza d- ela ed
me hodologies and s udies, as documen ed in he e iew pape (Ques-
ada-Ganuza e al., 2021). This b oade compa ison allowed o insigh s
in o he simila i ies and di e ences in app oaches o ulne abili y
assessmen ac oss a ious haza ds. By examining o he haza d con ex s,
such as loods o ea hquakes, aluable knowledge was gained in e ms
o me hodological conside a ions, applicabili y o indica o s, and les-
sons lea ned om di e en isk assessmen amewo ks.
In syn hesizing he indings o he clus e ing analysis and he
compa a i e assessmen , his s udy con ibu es o illing he exis ing gap
in li e a u e by p o iding a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o
ulne abili y in his o ic a eas, pa icula ly in ela ion o hea wa es.
While di ec compa isons wi h hea wa e s udies in his o ic a eas
emain limi ed, he insigh s gained om analysing clus e ing pa e ns
and conside ing o he haza d con ex s con ibu e o ad ancing he
knowledge and me hodology o ulne abili y assessmen in his unique
se ing.
In he ield o u ban ulne abili y assessmen , a ious me hodologies
ha e been de eloped o add ess he challenges posed by di e en haz-
a ds. Fo ins ance, he s udy by Ap eda e al. (2019) ocused on assessing
he ulne abili y o u ban a eas o bo h hea wa es and loods, consid-
e ing a b oad ange o physical indica o s. While hei me hodology
o e s aluable insigh s in o he o e all ulne abili y o u ban a eas, i
p ima ily adop s a mo e gene alized app oach, assessing la ge sec ions
o he u ban ab ic a he han di e en ia ing be ween indi idual
buildings and open spaces. This b oade pe spec i e aligns wi h o he
me hodologies ha emphasize he physical aspec s o ulne abili y,
examining he suscep ibili y o u ban a eas o a ange o haza ds. S udies
such as Lemonsu e al. (2015) and He e al. (2021), Lemonsu e al.
(2015) ha e also explo ed physical ulne abili y and he indica o s ha
impac he u ban hea island e ec , albei a di e en scales and wi h
a ying app oaches. These s udies ha e p o ided impo an ideas and
da a on physical indica o s, con ibu ing o ou unde s anding o
ulne abili y in u ban con ex s. Mo eo e , s udies such as Sanchez e al.
(2020) and Nu˜
nez Pei o e al. (2020) ha e emphasized he social aspec s
o ulne abili y, conside ing ac o s like uel po e y (Nú˜
nez Pei ´
o e al.,
2020; S´
anchez e al., 2020). These s udies con ibu e o a mo e holis ic
unde s anding o ulne abili y, complemen ing ou ocus on he speci ic
con ex o his o ic a eas.
Howe e , i is impo an o no e ha ou s udy speci ically ocuses on
his o ic a eas and he unique ulne abili ies hey ace in he con ex o
hea wa es. The dis inc cha ac e is ics o his o ic a eas, including he
a chi ec u al he i age and his o ical signi icance, needs a ailo ed
assessmen ha conside s he in e play be ween buildings, open spaces,
and he his o ical con ex . While b oade me hodologies p o ide alu-
able insigh s in o u ban ulne abili y, ou a ge ed app oach enables us
o cap u e he nuanced ulne abili ies o his o ic a eas du ing hea
wa es.
Table 7
Weigh s o he public spaces equi emen ee.
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
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17
7 By compa ing hese di e en app oaches and he esul s, we gain a
comp ehensi e unde s anding o he di e se pe spec i es and scopes
o ulne abili y assessmen s in u ban con ex s. While some me h-
odologies ake a b oade and mo e physical app oach o assess
ulne abili y a a la ge scale, ou s udy highligh s he signi icance o
conduc ing a ge ed assessmen s ha conside he in ica e in e play
be ween buildings, open spaces, and he his o ical con ex wi hin
his o ic a eas. Conclusions and u u e wo k
Hea wa es p esen a challenge in he ield o isk assessmen ,
especially when conside ing his o ic u ban a eas, as he e is a gap in
knowledge. As clima e change and he de i ed haza ds become mo e
ele an , planning and conse a ion s a egies will need o guide he
adap a ion o his o ic a eas o ace a mo e challenging u u e. Hence, he
p ope unde s anding o ulne abili y and isk is a mayo necessi y o
p io i ize and use adap a ion esou ces.
The ulne abili y assessmen me hodology p esen ed in his s udy
uses a comp ehensi e se o mul idimensional indica o s o unde s and
he ulne abili y o buildings and open spaces o hea wa es wi hin
his o ic u ban a eas. The me hodology applies a holis ic app oach,
ga he ing indica o s om a physical, socio-economic, cul u al and
en i onmen al pe spec i e. These indica o s a e de eloped h ough a
mul iscale app oach, aking in o accoun he lexibili y and eplicabili y
o he me hodology. The au ho s’ knowledge o he a ea and isual in-
spec ion du ing he 2022 summe ’s hea wa es o di e en a eas o he
case s udy con i med he esul s and p o ided alida ion o he me h-
odology. As u u e wo k, he esul s o indi idual indica o s could be
alida ed wi h a combina ion o simula ions and in si u measu emen s o
he hea wa e condi ions and is e ec s.
In he case o he ca ego iza ion o he public spaces, e en i he
ulne abili y accu acy was high, he ca ego iza ion le ou he mos and
less ulne able elemen s, being he ones ca ego ized all o simila le el
Fig. 15. Vulne abili y o buildings in Bilbao adjus ing he alues o minimum and maximum.
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
Sus ainable Ci ies and Socie y 98 (2023) 104805
18
o ulne abili y. This concluded ha he homogenei y among he u ban
spaces in a his o ic a ea makes small di e ences among he indica o s
e y ele an when calcula ing ulne abili y, so he ca ego iza ion
me hod did no b ing he mos accu a e esul s. In he case o he
buildings, he esul s p esen ed a e y low ma gin o e o , 2%,
p o iding a good al e na i e o a ull assessmen wi h less da a e-
qui emen s, and consequen ly, esou ces in e ms o ime and cos . The
ca ego iza ion p ocess would gain mo e impo ance in cases whe e he
a ie y o spaces is mo e he e ogenic, and he ca ego ies mo e a ied as
a esul , which makes i mo e ele an in case o assessmen a an u ban
o e en egional scale.
An adequa e da a managemen s a egy is necessa y in o de o
ob ain a obus and eplicable me hodology ha ensu es he connec ion
be ween scales and he eplica ion capaci y. Da a access o u ban a eas
is complex and a ies be ween case s udies, especially in complex his-
o ic a eas whe e a ailabili y o in o ma ion is sca ce and di icul o
ga he ia ieldwo k o o he me hods. The me hodology should be,
he e o e, lexible o pe mi adjus men s ega ding da a a ailabili y and
upda es o e ime, when da a becomes a ailable o adap i e ac ions
ake place. The la e would lead o a dynamic isk analysis. In conclu-
sion, he me hodology p esen ed p o ides a obus and objec i e
app oach o assessing he isk o his o ic a eas o hea wa es,
The ulne abili y s udy p esen ed in his pape is he i s s ep in he
de elopmen o a inal isk assessmen me hodology ha will esul wi h
he u u e combina ion o haza d and exposu e o comple e he IPCC isk
amewo k. Fo he u u e s eps, i is essen ial o conside he e ol ing
amewo k p esen ed in he IPCC’s Six h Assessmen Repo (AR6)
(IPCC, 2022). While ou cu en s udy is based on he AR5 amewo k,
we acknowledge he impo ance o inco po a ing he AR6 amewo k in
u u e s eps owa ds isk assessmen and accoun o u u e adap a ion
measu es. The AR6 amewo k places a g ea e emphasis on he in-
e ac ions and esponses among he de e minan s o isk. I conside s he
Fig. 16. Vulne abili y o open spaces in Bilbao adjus ing he alues o minimum and maximum.
L. Quesada-Ganuza e al.
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19
uni-di ec ional, bi-di ec ional, and agg ega e in e ac ions among he
a ious componen s ha con ibu e o isk (IPCC, 2022). This e eshed
app oach p o ides a mo e explici unde s anding o he speci ic in-
e ac ions wi hin and be ween he de e minan s o isk, enabling a mo e
de ailed and accu a e assessmen o isk. In he con ex o clima e
change impac s, isks a ise om he dynamic in e ac ions be ween
clima e- ela ed haza ds, exposu e, and ulne abili y o he a ec ed
sys em. Howe e , when conside ing clima e change esponses, isks can
a ise om po en ial ade-o s, nega i e side-e ec s, o he po en ial o
esponses no achie ing hei in ended objec i es (IPCC, 2022). By
acknowledging he ad ancemen s in he AR6 amewo k, ou u u e
esea ch aims o in eg a e hese conside a ions in o u u e wo k and he
de elopmen o he me hodology owa ds isk assessmen . This will
enable a mo e dynamic and comp ehensi e assessmen o isk, ac-
coun ing o he in e ac ions and esponses among he de e minan s o
isk and inco po a ing he e ol ing unde s anding o clima e change
impac s.
Decla a ion o Compe ing In e es
The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inancial
in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence
he wo k epo ed in his pape .
Da a a ailabili y
Da a will be made a ailable on eques .
Acknowledgmen s
The esea che s would like o acknowledge he SAREN esea ch
g oup (IT1619-22, Basque Go e nmen ) and he Eu opean Commission
o hei suppo and unding o he SHELTER p ojec (GA 821282).
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