Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
Ene gy Repo s
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/egy
Resea ch pape
S o age and demand esponse con ibu ion o i m capaci y: Analysis
o he Spanish elec ici y sys em
Te esa F ei e-Ba celóa,∗, F ancisco Ma ín-Ma íneza, Ál a o Sánchez-Mi allesa,
Michel Ri ie a, Tomás Gómez San Romána, Sébas ien Huclina,b, José Pablo Cha es Á ilaa,
And es Ramosa
aIns i u e o Resea ch in Technology (IIT), ICAI School o Enginee ing, Uni e sidad Pon i icia Comillas, San a C uz de Ma cenado
26, 28015, Mad id, Spain
bBasque Cen e o Clima e Change (BC3), Sede Building 1, 1s loo , Scien i ic Campus, 48940, Leioa, Spain
a icle in o
A icle his o y:
Recei ed 22 Ap il 2022
Recei ed in e ised o m 1 July 2022
Accep ed 3 Augus 2022
A ailable online 27 Augus 2022
Keywo ds:
Fi m capaci y
Demand esponse
Demand g ow h
Ba e ies
Pumped-hyd o s o age
abs ac
P o ision o i m capaci y will become a challenge in powe sys ems domina ed by enewable
gene a ion. This pape analyzes he compe i i eness and ole o ba e y s o age, six ypes o pumped-
hyd o s o age, open cycle gas u bine (OCGT), and demand esponse (DR) echnologies in p o iding
he i m capaci y equi ed o gua an ee he secu i y o supply in a eal-size powe sys em such as he
Spanish one in ho izon 2030. The pape con ibu es wi h de ailed and ealis ic modeling o he DR
capabili ies. Demand is disagg ega ed by sec o and ac i i ies and p ojec ed owa ds 2030, applying
a g ow h a e by ac i i y. The load lexibili y cons ain s a e conside ed o ensu e he alidi y o he
esul s. A gene a ion ope a ion planning and expansion model, SPLODER, is con enien ly upg aded
o p ope ly ep esen he di e en s o age al e na i es add essed in he pape . The esul s highligh
he impo ance o conside ing demand esponse o e alua ing long- e m i m capaci y equi emen s,
showing a non-negligible impac on he in es men decisions on he amoun o i m capaci y equi ed
in he sys em and he op imal sha es o wind and sola PV enewable gene a ion. Resul s also show he
dominance o cos -compe i i eness o pumped hyd o and OCGTs o e ba e ies. Addi ionally, capaci y
paymen s a e equi ed o suppo i m capaci y p o ide s’ in es men s.
©2022 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND
license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
1. In oduc ion
Ensu ing he secu i y o supply in he Spanish elec ici y sys-
em is a ask ha aces mul iple challenges in he nea u u e. The
Spanish na ional ene gy s a egy commi s o achie ing a leas
74% o enewable elec ici y gene a ion by 2030 (PNIEC,2020).
Spu ed by hei inc easingly compe i i e in es men cos s, he e
is no doub he sys em will mainly ely on wind a ms and sola
pho o ol aic (PV) powe plan s o mee his a ge . The p oduc-
ion o such enewable gene a ion is ully wea he dependen ,
se e ely jeopa dizing he secu i y o supply, ha is, he sys em’s
a ailabili y o coun on enough a ailable gene a ion o mee he
∗Co esponding au ho .
E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (T. F ei e-Ba celó),
[email p o ec ed] (F. Ma ín-Ma ínez), [email p o ec ed]
(Á. Sánchez-Mi alles), [email p o ec ed] (M. Ri ie ),
[email p o ec ed] (T.G. San Román), [email p o ec ed]
(S. Huclin), [email p o ec ed] (J.P.C. Á ila),
[email p o ec ed] (A. Ramos).
demand a any ime. These enewable sou ces a e subs i u ing
he mal gene a ion, which has adi ionally p o ided he sys em
secu i y o supply and lexibili y. The e o e, i will be necessa y
o eso o addi ional esou ces o ill he gap le by phased-ou
he mal gene a o s as i m capaci y1p o ide s. Mo eo e , o be
aligned wi h Eu opean goals (Meeus and Nouice ,2020), hese
new esou ces should also ha e low emissions.
S o age acili ies a e one o he mos sui able echnologies o
p o ide i m capaci y. A la ge-scale ba e y is one o he op ions.
(Mallap agada e al.,2020) assess i s po en ial as he p ima y
esou ce o i m capaci y, concluding ha u he cos educ ion
is necessa y o ba e ies o become a cos -e ec i e al e na i e.
Al hough a ailable in sca ce loca ions, pumped-hyd o s o age is
ano he op ion o be conside ed due o hei ma u i y, la ge s o -
age capaci y, ela i ely low capi al cos s, mainly when hey ake
1Fi m capaci y echnologies e e o ene gy sou ces whose capaci y is
a ailable a he mos c i ical pe iods o gene a ion as i is con ollable
and able o supply ene gy as needed independen ly o wea he o ex e nal
condi ions (Zacha y e al.,2019) sa egua ding sys em adequacy.
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.egy .2022.08.014
2352-4847/©2022 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
ad an age o some al eady ins alled hyd o ese oi s, and as
esponse capabili y when needed (Ami an e e al.,2017). Many
o he inno a i e s o age kinds o esou ces ha e also been as-
sessed in Ko kmaz (2019), such as comp essed ai ene gy s o age,
hyd ogen s o age, and o he de eloping echnologies such as low
ba e ies and liquid ai ene gy s o age. Howe e , none o hese
mo e inno a i e esou ces is ye close o being cos -compe i i e.
O he op ions o p o ide secu i y o supply beyond s o age
echnologies ha e also been conside ed in some publica ions
add essing he u u e o elec ici y sys ems. Fo ins ance, he
use o powe plan s wi h ca bon cap u e and s o age combined
wi h high in e connec o s capaci y (B ouwe e al.,2014), o he
geog aphical di e si ica ion o wind a ms in Ge many, show he
educ ion o i m capaci y needed (Bucks eeg,2019).
The e a e o he pape s simila o his one, whe e he high
pene a ion o enewables is he issue ha esul in he pu sui
o gene a ion al e na i es o gua an ee he secu i y o supply o
he elec ici y sys em. Gae e-Mo ales e al. (2019) p o ides he
analysis o he Chilean sys em in ho izon 2050. Ruhnau and
Q is (2022) compa e di e en s o age ypes (hyd ogen s o age,
pumped-hyd o s o age & ba e ies) o gua an ee he secu i y o
supply in he Ge man elec ici y sys em. A ion (2020) analyze
Moldo a’s pumped-hyd o s o age needs and Lu e al. (2021) as-
sess China’s op ions o achie e a ca bon-neu al elec ici y sys em
whe e DR is men ioned quali a i ely. Howe e , i is no assessed
i s impac on he elec ici y sys em.
As p esen ed, in he li e a u e, i m capaci y equi emen s
a e p ima ily add essed, in addi ion o gene a ion uni s, wi h
pumped-hyd o s o age and li hium-ion ba e ies. The main con-
ibu ion o his pape is he analysis o an addi ional com-
pe i o in he p o ision o i mness, neglec ed in hose s udies,
which is he impac o demand-side managemen in a high e-
newables pene a ion elec ici y sys em. Besides, he pape con-
ibu es wi h he upg ades pe o med in he model o enable i
o be used o he i s ime o his pu pose. DR is expec ed
o apidly inc ease o comply wi h Eu opean Commission di ec-
i es (Eu opean Pa liamen ,2019), al hough egula o y, echno-
logical, and social ba ie s (F ei e-Ba celó e al.,2022) need o
be add essed. New au oma ion echnologies and inc easing cus-
ome engagemen (Gómez-Ba edo e al.,2021) may ha e a non-
negligible impac in many aspec s, also ega ding he i mness
equisi es and gene a ion in es men planning.
Mo eo e , he in o ma ion a ailable in he li e a u e abou
he o igin o elec ici y demand and he co esponding lexibil-
i y, was comple ely ou da ed (Red Eléc ica de España,1998;
Ins i u o pa a la Di e si icación y Aho o de la Ene gía,2016a).
The e o e, a disagg ega ed ep esen a ion o he demand di e -
en ia es demand g ow h a es owa ds 2030 by demand use and
o accu a ely and ealis ically ep esen he demand esponse
capabili ies o each consump ion ca ego y. Thus, his aluable and
use ul in o ma ion can be used o de eloping di e en ypes o
s udies.
O e all, he wo k p esen ed in his pape is a na u al ollow-
up o he one p esen ed in Huclin e al. (2022), whe e i m
coe icien s a e de e mined o he di e en s o age echnologies.
Using hose coe icien s and he ones ha can be ound in he
li e a u e, he pape analyzes and discusses he need o new
i m esou ces o main ain he secu i y o supply o he Spanish
elec ici y sys em in ho izon 2030 and o conside he gene a ion
ola ili y in a scena io 2030 wi h a high sha e o enewables.
The SPLODER model, a gene a ion expansion planning model, is
he ool used o he analysis. The i s e sion o he model
has been p esen ed in Ma ínez e al. (2017) whe e he co e
equa ions we e in oduced wi h he no el y o a disagg ega ed
ep esen a ion o he demand by usage ypes such as hea ing and
cooling, domes ic ho wa e o elec ic ehicles. This ac limi s
he capabili y o shi demand eely since each consump ion ype
ha e speci ic cons ain s. The model has al eady been applied in
p e ious s udies such as Ma ín-Ma ínez e al. (2017), in which
he analysis and scena io de ini ion was ocused on compa -
ing cen alized s. dis ibu ed gene a ion al e na i es conside ing
lexible loads. The model o mula ion has also been upg aded
and used in Ge es e al. (2019), including new emune a ion
mechanisms equi ed o achie e he enewable pene a ion a -
ge s oge he wi h enough i m capaci y p o ision. In addi ion,
he model is al eady p epa ed o manage lexible demand and o
de elop his s udy, i has been upg aded o p ope ly ep esen
in de ail di e en i m capaci y p o ide s, namely di e en kinds
o pumped-hyd o s o ages, la ge-scale ba e ies, and OCGT, as
well as he conside a ion o he demand-side esponse. Thus, he
model is used o he i s ime o analyze he esou ces equi ed
o p o ide i m capaci y and he compe i i eness among hem,
and how he ull po en ial o DR may impac hese esul s as
well as he op imal in es men s in enewable gene a ion. The
Spanish elec ici y sys em is weakly in e connec ed, and i can
be conside ed as an ene gy island (THE LOCAL,2022;Wilson
and Muñoz,2022). The e o e, neglec ing in e connec ions allows
ob aining insigh s in o he possible e olu ion o powe sys ems
wi h high pene a ion o a iable enewable ene gy esou ces.
The main con ibu ions o his pape a e h ee old. Fi s ly,
he pape con ibu es by p o iding a de ailed Spanish demand
g ow h disagg ega ed analysis, ob aining wo ex eme cases. This
allows he conside a ion o a de ailed and ealis ic ep esen a ion
o DR, p e iously modeled, in a eal-sized elec ici y sys em and
assessing i s ole and ele ance when planning he u u e i m
capaci y p o ision, as i conside ably diminishes he equi ed in-
es men s. Secondly, he pape con ibu es o analyzing he com-
pe i i eness among di e en i m capaci y echnology p o ide s
unde di e en scena ios. Thi dly, he me hodology applied e-
so s o an op imiza ion ool, he SPLODER model. SPLODER ma h-
ema ical o mula ion p esen ed in Ma ínez e al. (2017) and
Ge es e al. (2019) has been upg aded wi h he inclusion o
s o age echnologies o enable he analysis o he con ibu ion o
DR and o he echnologies o i m capaci y equi emen s. These
changes a e ho oughly explained in Sec ion 3, hus con ibu ing
wi h a mo e comple e model in he li e a u e.
The es o he pape p esen s he ollowing s uc u e. Sec-
ion 2p esen s a demand g ow h analysis necessa y o cha -
ac e izing he Spanish elec ici y sys em un il 2030 and iden-
i ies demand managemen capabili ies as ano he i m capac-
i y esou ce. Sec ion 3desc ibes he new o mula ion added o
SPLODER, di e en ia ing mul iple di e en ypes o cen alized
s o age esou ces, and he desc ip ion o he associa ed equi ed
inpu da a. Sec ion 4p esen s he scena ios assessed in he pa-
pe based on he na ional policy a ge s and ex ended o co e
di e en sensi i i ies aligned wi h his s udy’s main aim. Resul s
a e discussed in Sec ion 5. Finally, Sec ion 6assesses he indings
and iden i ies addi ional u u e esea ch needs.
2. Demand g ow h analysis
In he nex u u e, elec ici y sys ems will expe ience a deep
change in he demand side owa ds mo e e icien ene gy con-
sump ion. Besides, deca boniza ion a ge s will boos highe le -
els o elec i ica ion so ha signi ican g ow h o demand lex-
ibili y is expec ed o be a ailable. The mo e elec ic loads, he
easie i becomes o p o i om hei adap abili y o consume a
di e en imes wi hou comp omising he elec ici y end usage
and he consume s’ com o . To ake ad an age o con ollable
loads, i is necessa y o compu e he load lexibili y po en ial
and he limi s ha consump ion can be managed. To his end,
ou ca ego ies o elec ici y consump ion wi hin he esiden ial
10547
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Table 1
2015 elec ici y demand in Spain.
Elec ici y demand 2015
Sec o TWh %
Residen ial 72.73 29%
Se ices 76.24 31%
T anspo 6.40 3%
Indus y 91.86 37%
To al 247.22 100%
Table 2
2015 elec ici y demand o he esiden ial sec o in Spain.
Elec ici y demand 2015
Residen ial sec o TWh %
Hea ing 4.42 6%
Cooling 3.40 5%
DHW 4.48 6%
Ligh ing and o he s 60.43 83%
To al esiden ial 72.73 100%
and se ices sec o s ha e been conside ed o be con ollable in
di e en ways: hea ing & cooling (clima iza ion), domes ic ho
wa e (DHW), e ige a ion (cold chain, eeze s, and idges) and
elec ic ehicles (EV). I is ele an o come up wi h an es ima ion
o he amoun o demand associa ed wi h each o hese ca ego ies
and which p opo ion o each one will be eady o be con ollable.
To es ima e he amoun o demand in he Spanish sec o , clas-
si ied acco ding o he abo e-men ioned ca ego ies, he ollowing
me hodology has been applied:
– Fi s , load hou ly da a o he Spanish elec ici y sys em o
he yea 2015 a e conside ed o each sec o ( esiden ial,
se ices, anspo , indus y) as he base p o iles. This yea
has been selec ed because he in o ma ion a ailable is e y
de ailed by di e en usage ypes. In addi ion, he pandemic
does no in luence consump ion and clea ly se es as a
e e ence yea o es ima ing g ow h a es (Ins i u o pa a la
Di e si icación y Aho o de la Ene gía,2011).
– Second, esiden ial and comme cial sec o s’ da a a e u -
he disagg ega ed using a se o complemen a i y epo s
o each he g anula i y equi ed o iden i y he po en ial
con ollable, ha is, clima iza ion, DHW, e ige a ion, and
es ima ion o EVs loads. This disagg ega ion was deeply
s udied du ing he yea s 2014–2018.
– Thi d, a li e a u e e iew has been pe o med o se a ange
o annual demand g ow h o each ca ego y.
– Fou h, he wo ex eme alues ound in he li e a u e o
he 2030 demand g ow h will de ine he ange in which
i is loca ed and he po en ially con ollable load ha he
model will conside . Fu he mo e, o alida e he es ima ed
g ow h, i has been checked ha he e a e no inconsis en-
cies wi h he in o ma ion a ailable up o 2022.
Table 1 shows he 2015 elec ici y demand b eakdown in
he ou main consump ion sec o s, ob ained as he a e age
alue om epo s (PNIEC,2020;In e na ional Ene gy Agency,
2015;Lina es and Decle cq,2018;Deloi e,2018b;Go e nmen
o Spain,2018).
As shown in Tables 2 &3, he ‘‘Residen ial’’ and ‘‘Se ices’’
consump ion sec o s ha e hen been u he b oken down in o
di e en ca ego ies based on Ins i u o pa a la Di e si icación y
Aho o de la Ene gía (2016a), Pe sson and We ne (2015) and
Consul o es (2005), using he ‘‘Ligh ing and o he s’’ ca ego y o
ga he he es o demand, conside ed as in lexible.
The anspo sec o elec ici y consump ion o 2015 has been
calcula ed as he sum o EV and elec ic ains consump ion.
Table 3
2015 elec ici y demand o he se ices sec o in Spain.
Elec ici y demand 2015
Se ices sec o TWh %
Hea ing 13.89 18%
Cooling 11.11 15%
DHW 0.80 1%
Ligh ing and o he s 47.91 63%
Re ige a ion 2.52 3%
To al se ices 76.24 100%
Table 4
2015 EV lee in Spain.
EV 2015
EV lee [N◦o ehicles] 5848
Table 5
2015 o al anspo sec o elec ici y consump ion in Spain.
T anspo 2015
EV consump ion [TWh] 0.017
T ains [TWh] 6.39
To al [TWh] 6.40
Table 6
2030 min. and max. demand o he esiden ial sec o [TWh].
Residen ial demand 2030 min 2030 max
Hea ing 36.87 48.29
Cooling 5.65 13.48
DHW 14.79 22.77
Ligh ing and o he s 39.68 45.46
To al esiden ial 97 130
The ollowing calcula ion has been applied o es ima e he pa
o i co esponding o EV. The EV lee published in Eu opean
Commission (2015) and p esen ed in Table 4 has been used as he
s a ing poin . Then, an a e age EV consump ion o 0.2 kWh/km
has been assumed based on he a e age elec ic ca consump ion
in Oak Ridge (2022), and conside ing he ine iciency due o
he cha ging and discha ging cycle as assessed in Iclodean e al.
(2017). Finally, Spain’s a e age daily ca uses is assumed o be
40 km/day, as shown in Eu opean En i onmen Agency (2019).
These assump ions led o an es ima ion o 17 GWh o he o al
EV elec ici y demand in 2015, as p esen ed in Table 5. The
emaining anspo sec o elec ici y consump ion in Table 1 has
been associa ed wi h he ailway sec o .
Once he 2015 demand b eakdown has been se , minimum
and maximum demand g ow h alues o 2030 ha e been es i-
ma ed o he di e en sec o s and consump ion ca ego ies.
Fo esiden ial and se ice sec o s, o ecas s published
in Lina es and Decle cq (2018), Ins i u o pa a la Di e si icación y
Aho o de la Ene gía (2011), Jakubcionis and Ca lsson (2018) and
Ins i u o pa a la Di e si icación y Aho o de la Ene gía (2016b)
ha e been con as ed o de e mine he demand g ow h a e o
he di e en consump ion ca ego ies. The mos op imis ic and
pessimis ic p edic ions published ac oss he e iewed publica-
ions ha e been selec ed o de ine a ange wi h he minimum
and he maximum demand g ow h o 2030. The esiden ial
and se ices sec o ’s minimum and maximum consump ion a e
p esen ed in Tables 6 and 7, espec i ely.
T anspo sec o demand g ow h assumed in he s udy and
p esen ed in Table 8 is based on he mos ex eme alues con-
ce ning he expec ed EV lee g ow h s a ed by PNIEC (2020) and
In e na ional Ene gy Agency (2015) .
10548
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Table 7
2030 min. and max. demand o he se ices sec o [TWh].
Se ices demand 2030 min 2030 max
Hea ing 14.71 22.47
Cooling 12.03 17.08
DHW 0.89 1.78
Ligh ing and o he s 56.92 43.49
Re ige a ion 2.80 2.81
T ains 6.60 8.77
To al including ains 93.94 96.39
Table 8
2030 min. and max. demand o he anspo sec o .
T anspo demand 2030 min 2030 max
EV lee [N◦o ehicles] 300,000 5,000,000
EV consump ion [TWh] 0.876 14.6
Table 9
2030 min. and max. demand o he indus ial sec o [TWh].
Indus ial demand 2030 min 2030 max
Indus y 103.6 124.9
Table 10
2030 o al min. max. and a e age demand [TWh].
To al demand 2030 min 2030 max A e age
Residen ial 97 130 114
Se ices 94 96 95
Indus y 104 125 114
T anspo 1 15 8
To al 295 366 331
Indus ial demand g ow h o 2030 is expec ed o be in he
ange desc ibed in Lina es and Decle cq (2018) and p esen ed in
Table 9.
In he scena ios p esen ed below, in e media e g ow hs in-
be ween he ange p esen ed (2030Min and 2030Max) a e con-
side ed indi idually o each sec o and consump ion ca ego y.
Table 10 p esen s he minimum, he maximum and he a e age
o he o al elec ici y demand by sec o .
As a inal s ep in he demand cha ac e iza ion, di e en de-
g ees o pene a ion o demand esponse a e conside ed in he
s udy. I is assumed ha only a ac ion o all he po en ially
con ollable loads will be eady o pa icipa e in demand esponse
p og ams by 2030.
Finally, i is impo an o p ope ly model he ac ual capa-
bili ies o demand esponse o such manageable loads. Demand
managemen co esponds o a demand shi among hou s. Bu
demand canno be shi ed in any way. Each o hese loads obeys
o a p ocess ha limi s i s esponse capabili ies. Fo ins ance, he
hea ing and cooling demand canno be eely shi ed o e ime as
i should ensu e ha he empe a u e o he building does no go
ou o a p ese com o band.
The SPLODER model enables a e y de ailed ep esen a ion
o he demand. The way di e en consump ion ca ego ies ha
can p o ide DR a e modeled is de ailed in Ma ín-Ma ínez e al.
(2017), bu o e all is as ollows:
•EVs: a gi en po ion o he EV demand i conside ed ully
lexible and manageable du ing he 24 h. The es o EV
demand is conside ed a non- lexible one and ollows a p e-
de e mined cha ging p o ile, spli up be ween base and peak
hou s, as p esen ed in Ge es e al. (2019).
•Hea ing and cooling: a e e ence and com o band em-
pe a u e is se acco ding o p ede ined empe a u e bands.
The building he mal ine ia is conside ed o simula e he
empe a u e e olu ion. Buildings a e clus e ed acco ding o
hei geog aphical a ea wi h di e en ex e nal empe a u es
acco ding o he mon h and hei le el o he mal isola ion.
•DHW: he po ion assumed o be lexible can be managed
eely du ing a whole day as i is associa ed wi h he s o ed
ho wa e ine ia.
•Re ige a ion: is lexible i he a e age empe a u e ollows
a e e ence empe a u e. The empe a u e could be wo
deg ees uppe o lowe his e e ence, whe eas he a e age
is espec ed a he end o he day. The ene gy o keep
he empe a u e in e e ence du ing a day can be consid-
e ed cons an in an adiaba ic sys em, and i can be eely
alloca ed h oughou he day.
3. Cha ac e izing s o age esou ces in SPLODER
The SPLODER model pe o ms an op imal gene a ion expan-
sion plan minimizing in es men , p oduc ion, and O&M cos s o
a gi en ime ho izon. Yea s a e ep esen ed by a se o clus e ed
ep esen a i e weeks wi h hou ly ime g anula i y. These ou
weeks ep esen he seasons’ win e , sp ing/ all, summe , and
aca ions, each o hem wi h di e en weigh s along he yea .
The ou -week demand and enewables gene a ion p o iles a e
ob ained by applying he k-means clus e ing algo i hm (Ha igan
and Wong,1979).
Se e al enewable p oduc ion p o iles a e conside ed in he
op imiza ion amewo k ( h ee enewable scena ios a e used in
his s udy); al hough he e is s ochas ici y, ano he model wi h
he 8760 h o he yea could alida e SPLODERs ope a ion de-
cisions; howe e , his p oo is ou o he scope o he pape .
The main inpu s and ou pu s o he model a e summa ized in
Fig. 1. As u he explained in Ge es e al. (2019), he esul -
ing op imal gene a ion and s o age mix should comply wi h
wo main cons ain s. Fi s , gene a ion and demand should mee
hou ly. Hou ly ene gy p ices (=
C/MWh) a e ob ained as he dual
a iable o such gene a ion–demand balance cons ain . Second,
he model gua an ees ha enough i m capaci y is p o ided o
he sys em (a 10% ese e ma gin o e he peak demand is used
in his s udy). Each gene a ion echnology con ibu es di e en ly
o he sys em i m capaci y. A speci ic i m capaci y coe icien is
assigned o each gene a ion echnology. An annual based capaci y
p ice (=
C/MW) is ob ained as he dual a iable o i m capaci y
equi emen cons ain and hus used o model a new capaci y
ma ke o he Spanish elec ici y sys em. Hence, gene a ion uni s
a e emune a ed bo h o p o iding ene gy and i m capaci y o
he sys em, and bo h incomes a e conside ed o ensu e he ull
cos eco e y o all newly ins alled uni s. Balancing se ices p o-
ision is ou o he scope o his pape . The ull desc ip ion o he
SPLODER op imiza ion model, including a de ailed explana ion
and o mula ion o he objec i e unc ion and cons ain s, can be
ound in Ma ínez e al. (2017) and Ge es e al. (2019).
Fo his pape , SPLODER has been upg aded o imp o e he
modeling o i m capaci y esou ces, enabling he cha ac e iza ion
o di e en pumped-hyd o s o age ypes and adding cen alized
ba e y s o age as candida e echnologies o be conside ed in he
u u e gene a ion and s o age mix. This sec ion ocuses speci -
ically on desc ibing he s o age echnologies conside ed in his
s udy and he de ailed o mula ion o equa ions added o he
exis ing SPLODER model o ep esen hei beha io p ope ly.
Acco ding o he Spanish con ex , six di e en ca ego ies o
pumped-hyd o s o age ha e been modeled as candida es o ex-
panding he sys em. They ha e di e en s o age capaci y sizes
and in es men cos s ep esen ing basically wo op ions: build an
a i icial uppe ese oi associa ed wi h an exis ing s o age hy-
d o powe plan o build a new pens ock wi h a e e sible u bine
in an al eady exis ing pumped-hyd o s o age powe plan (CEEPR,
2020). Table 11 summa izes he se o new pumped hyd o s o age
10549
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Fig. 1. Main inpu s and ou pu s o SPLODER (Ge es e al.,2019).
Table 11
S o age da a.
Agen Max. ins all.
[MW]
Min. ins all.
[MW]
Annualized ins all.
cos [=
C/MW]
Fix annual O&M
[=
C/MW]
Va annual O&M
[=
C/MWh]
Fi m Coe . Round- ip
e .
Cha ge
hou s
Discha ge
hou s
Ba _cen 0 0 133,799 5550 0.00025 0.69 0.9 4 4
S o_8h_1 1000 400 39,255 9000 3 0.96 0.75 8 8
S o_20h_1 2000 400 52,340 12,000 3 0.96 0.75 20 20
S o_20h_2 5800 400 65,424 15,000 3 0.96 0.75 20 20
S o_40h_1 800 400 35,983 8250 3 0.96 0.75 40 40
S o_40h_2 600 400 62,153 14,250 3 0.96 0.75 40 40
S o_60h_1 1500 400 55,611 12,750 3 0.96 0.75 60 60
ypes included in SPLODER. Table 11 also shows he cen alized
la ge-scale Li-Ion ba e ies ha ha e been modeled and consid-
e ed in he s udy. The economy o scale o cen alized s o age
makes dis ibu ed ba e ies unp o i able, hus discou aging hei
deploymen om a cen alized poin o iew. The same hing
happens wi h dis ibu ed sola gene a ion, al hough in his case,
a ixed amoun has been se as inpu in he model (Red Eléc ica
de España,2019), conside ing hei na u al deploymen due o
indi idual mo i a ions o local a i s incen i es. Howe e , p o i s
om sol ing local dis ibu ed sys em conges ion p oblems a e
no conside ed.
Ins alla ion, ix, and a iable O&M cos s o ba e ies a e based
on Mongi d e al. (2019). Pumped-s o age hyd o da a, including
maximum a ailable ins alla ion capaci ies o he di e en op-
ions and he associa ed i m capaci y coe icien s, a e es ima ed
based on CEEPR (2020) and PNIEC (2020). Addi ionally, he an-
nualized ins alla ion cos s o he di e en s o age op ions ha e
been es ima ed wi h public pumped-s o age hyd o p ojec s wi h
di e en s o age capaci ies (Repsol,2021;Eu opean Commission,
2019;Roca,2019,2020). These s o age acili ies a e modeled
wi hin an upg aded e sion o SPLODER. The de ailed o mula ion
o equa ions is p o ided, p eceded by he used nomencla u e
(Table 12):
All new s o age ypes, bo h pumping hyd o and ba e ies, ha e
been modeled simila ly. Cons ain s (1),(2),(3),(4) &(5), con ol
he s a e o cha ge (SOC) o all s o age ypes, o cing i no o
exceed he maximum s o age capaci y acco ding o in es men
decisions.
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis ≥socis ,p,w,m,h
(1)
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis
≥socis ,p,w,m,h−1+cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis ∀is ,p, w, m,h>1
(2)
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis
≥socis ,p,w,m−1,24 +cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis
∀is ,p, w, m,h=1 (3)
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis
≥socis ,p,w−1,7,24 +cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis
∀is ,p, w, m=1,h1 (4)
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis
≥socis ,p,4,7,24 +cha gei,p,w,m,h
×YIELDis ∀is ,p, w =1,m=1,h1 (5)
Cons ain s (6),(7),(8) &(9), a e he bounda y condi ions
o he maximum ene gy ha can be discha ged a each ime
o he yea . The YIELDis conside ed in he model ga he s he
ound- ip e iciency. Hence, i is no necessa y o mul iply he
discha gei,p,w,m,h a iable again.
socis ,p,w,m,h−1≥discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w, m,h>1 (6)
socis ,p,w,m−1,24 ≥discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w, m,h=1 (7)
socis ,p,w−1,7,24 ≥discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w −1,m=1,h=1
(8)
socis ,p,4,7,24 ≥discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w =1,m=1,h=1 (9)
Cons ain s (10),(11),(12) &(13) calcula e he SOC a e e y
hou o each s o age ype. The SOC a each hou equals o he
SOC a he p e ious hou , plus he cha ged ene gy, minus he
discha ged ene gy. The ou equa ions di e only in e e ence o
he p e ious hou SOC, in which, due o he empo al g anula i y
o he model, he se s o be e e ed o sligh ly change wi h ime
(depending on he week, he day and he hou ).
socis ,p,w,m,h=socis ,p,w,m,h−1+(cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis )
−discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w, m,h>1 (10)
10550
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Table 12
Se s, pa ame e s, and a iables added.
Se s
i Technology ype {1–27}
is ϵi New s o age ypes {1–7}
p Renewable scena io {1–3}
w Week {1–4}
m Day o he week {1–7}
h Hou {1–24}
Pa ame e s
INSTALLEDiExis ing powe p e iously ins alled o each echnology i [MW]
CHARHOURSiCha ging hou s o each ype o s o age [h]
DISCHARHOURSiDischa ging hou s o each ype o s o age [h]
YIELDiS o age ound- ip e iciency by echnology i [%]
MAXINSTALLiMaximum capaci y o be ins alled o each echnology i [MW]
Va iables
inalins allediTo al capaci y in place o each echnology i [MW]
newIns alliNew ins alled capaci y o each echnology i [MW]
soci,p,w,m,hS a e o cha ge o hyd o plan a each hou [MWh]
cha gei,p,w,m,hPumped hyd o s o age cha ge a each hou [MW]
discha gei,p,w,m,hPumped hyd o s o age discha ge a each hou [MW]
ene gySelli,p,w,m,hHou ly ene gy sold by each echnology i [MWh]
ene gyBough i,p,w,m,hHou ly ene gy bough by each echnology i [MWh]
socis ,p,w,m,h=socis ,p,w,m−1,24 +(cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis )
−discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w, m>1,h=1 (11)
socis ,p,w,m,h=socis ,p,w−1,7,24 +(cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis )
−discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w > 1,m=1,h=1
(12)
socis ,p,w,m,h=socis ,p,4,7,24 +(cha gei,p,w,m,h×YIELDis )
−discha gei,p,w,m,h∀is ,p, w =1,m=1,h=1
(13)
Cons ain (14) se s he SOC o be he same a he beginning
and end o he yea ( i s hou o he i s ep esen a i e week
and las hou o he las ep esen a i e week) o all s o age ypes
in o de o be e ep esen he s o age po en ial h oughou he
yea .
socis ,p,1,1,0=socis ,p,4,7,24 (14)
Cons ain s (15) &(16) se he cha ging and discha ging speed
a e depending on he s o age hou s’ capaci y.
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis /CHARHOURSis
≥cha geis ,p,w,m,h(15)
(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )×DISCHARHOURSis /CHARHOURSis
≥discha geis ,p,w,m,h(16)
Fo each pumping s o age ype, he new ins alled capaci y
canno exceed he o al a ailable capaci y o be buil , as s a ed
in (17).
MAXINSTALLis ≥newIns allis (17)
In (18), he h ee di e en enewable scena ios conside ed
in he s udy a e o ced o s a a he same s a e o cha ge o
each s o age ype, which is se o be 60% o hei o al ins alled
capaci y.
socis ,p,1,1,0=0.6×(INSTALLEDis +newIns allis )
×DISCHARHOURSis ∀p(18)
Addi ionally, (19) gua an ees ha each echnology conside s
i s gi en yield when buying elec ici y.
ene gySelli,p,w,m,h=ene gyBough i,p,w,m,h×YIELDis ∀is ,p, w, m,h
(19)
4. Case s udy and scena io de ini ion
This sec ion desc ibes he scena ios conside ed in he s udy.
Since he s udy ocuses on he cos compe i i eness o he di e -
en i m capaci y p o ide s and how DR may impac he o e all
i m capaci y needs and ha compe i i eness, ou se s o scena -
ios ha e been buil . These ou blocks a e cha ac e ized by he
pa ame e which sensi i i y is analyzed. These se s o scena ios
and sensi i i ies add essed a e p esen ed in Table 13:
A base case scena io is used as a e e ence o each scena io
se . All base cases e ol e om he baseline scena io. The baseline
scena io assumes he e a e no DR capabili ies in he sys em
and looks o an op imal, minimum cos , mix o gene a ion and
s o age echnologies o he 2030 Spanish elec ici y sys em, as-
suming he ollowing se o echnical and cos pa ame e s. As
explained in Sec ion 2, demand g ow h om 2015 da a is se us-
ing an in e media e alue be ween he minimum and maximum
g ow h a es o each disagg ega ed ca ego y o demand.
Table 14 summa izes he i m capaci y coe icien s assumed
o each echnology. These alues a e ob ained om Red Eléc-
ica (2020), excep o ba e ies wi h ou hou s o discha ging
a e (Na ionalg idESO,2020) and pumped hyd o s o age (Na ional
G id,2017). The alues co esponding o he candida e pumped
s o age hyd o acili ies a e p esen ed in Table 11.
Table 15 summa izes he 2019 exis ing gene a ion capac-
i y expec ed o be s ill a ailable by 2030. Values a e ex ac ed
om PNIEC (2020).
Table 16 p esen s he alues assumed o he in es men cos s
and he ix and a iable O&M cos s o bo h con en ional and
enewable echnologies, upda ed om p e ious s udies (Ge es
e al.,2019) and based on addi ional Re s. In e na ional Renew-
able Ene gy Agency (2017), Eu opean Commision (2018), Allen
(2017), La sen and Rønno (2018), The Na ional Renewable En-
e gy Labo a o y (NREL) (2018) and PNIEC (2020). The alues
co esponding o s o age acili ies (including hyd opowe ) a e
p esen ed in Table 11.
Table 17 summa izes he assump ions adop ed o uel p ices,
CO2emission cos s, and axes o pollu an echnologies. P ices
o CO2and gas a e based on In e na ional Ene gy Agency (2019):
4.1. Baseline_NewFC scena io: Fi m coe icien sensi i i ies
The SPLODER model esul s may be p e y sensi i e o he i m
capaci y coe icien (FC) pa ame e adop ed o each echnology.
10551
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Table 13
Scena ios se s de ini ion.
Se Main ea u e analyzed Base case Sensi i i ies buil upon base case scena io
A Fi m coe icien Baseline Baseline_NewFC
B Pe cen age o DR deploymen Baseline_NewFC(0%DR) 25%DR 50%DR
C Reduc ion o ba e y p ice 25%DR P iceBa _L P iceBa _LL
D CO2and gas p ices Baseline EVC_XHigh EVC_High EVC_Low
Table 14
Fi mness coe icien s.
Technology Fi m capaci y coe icien
Nuclea 0.97
OCGT 0.96
CCGT 0.96
Cogene a ion 0.55
Biomass/Biogas 0.55
Sola he mal 0.14
Hyd o ( ese oi ) 0.44
Hyd o ( un-o - i e ) 0.25
Exis ing pumped hyd o s o age 0.77
Sola pho o ol aics 0
Wind powe 0.07
Li-Ion ba e ies 0.69
Table 15
2019 exis ing gene a ion capaci y expec ed o be s ill a ailable by 2030.
Technology Ins alled capaci y (MW)
Nuclea powe plan s 3050
OCGT 0
CCGT 24,560
Cogene a ion 3745
Biomass/Biogas 2146
Sola he mal 2299
Hyd o ( ese oi ) 15,614
Hyd o ( un-o - i e ) 636
Exis ing pumped hyd o s o age 3329
Sola pho o ol aics 8372
Wind Powe 25,553
Li-Ion ba e ies 0
Table 16
2030 gene a ion echnologies’ cos s.
In es men
cos s (=
C/kW)
Annual ixed O&M
cos (=
C/kW-yea )
Va iable O&M
cos (=
C/MWh)
Nuclea – 108.3 –
OCGT 544.1 18.4 11.0
CCGT 845.1 19.3 2.0
Hyd opowe (All) – 68.8 3.0
Sola PV (u ili y) 500 10 –
Sola he mal 4396.6 49.6 0.46
Wind 950 29 –
Table 17
2030 uel cos s, CO2 emissions cos s and indi idual axes.
Fuel cos
(=
C/MWh)
CO2cos
(84 =
C/ onCO2)
Taxes
(=
C/MWh)
Nuclea 8.72 – 15.02
OCGT 48.88 42.42 4.68
CCGT 32.58 28 4.68
Cogene a ion – 48.78 –
In a sys em domina ed by enewable gene a ion, i is qui e o en
ha sca ci y pe iods las longe han 4 h (which is he cha g-
ing and discha ging cycle o ba e ies) and some imes las e en
longe han 8 h (which is he cha ging and discha ging cycle o 8 h
pumped hyd o s o age) (Huclin e al.,2022). To be conse a i e,
he secu i y o supply o an elec ici y sys em should no all upon
s o age wi h less han 10 h o s o age capaci y. Fo his eason,
au ho s e alua ed in Huclin e al. (2022) he i m coe icien o
he di e en s o ages, coming up wi h lowe FCs o ba e ies and
Table 18
Fi mness coe icien s sensi i i ies.
Scena io Ba _cen S o_8h_1
Baseline 0.69 0.96
Baseline_newFC 0.294 0.567
Table 19
Scena ios wi h dis ibu ed PV panels unde di e en DR pe cen ages.
Scena io DR Clima e DR DHW DR EV DR REF
0DR 0 0 0 0
25DR 25% 25% 25% 25%
50DR 50% 50% 50% 50%
8 h cycle pumped hyd o s o age, and wi h hese new FCs has been
buil ano he scena io, e e ed o as Baseline_newFC, being hese
alues mo e accu a e o u u e scena ios. Conside ing (Huclin
e al.,2022;Na ionalG id,2018), he new alues adop ed o hese
wo echnologies a e shown in Table 18 and a e used o all he
es o he scena ios.
4.2. DR scena ios: Pe cen age o DR sensi i i ies
Th ee addi ional scena ios buil upon he Baseline_NewFC sce-
na io a e conside ed o analyze he impac o DR on he i m
capaci y equi emen s o he sys em. The h ee scena ios include
a ixed amoun o sola dis ibu ed gene a ion as explained be-
low. Baseline_NewFC scena io neglec ed any DR capabili y in he
sys em as he 0DR scena io does. Two addi ional scena ios (25DR
and 50DR scena ios) a e buil o which, espec i ely, 25% and
50% o he o al load iden i ied as con ollable (see Sec ion 2)
is conside ed eady o ac i ely pa icipa e in demand esponse
p og ams. These segmen s o load co espond o hea ing and
cooling (clima e), domes ic ho wa e (DHW), elec ic ehicles
(EV) and e ige a ion (REF) as shown in Table 19.
An amoun o dis ibu ed small-size sel -consump ion sola
PV gene a ion is assumed o be al eady ins alled by 2030 o
hese h ee scena ios (0DR, 25DR and 50DR). A conse a i e ixed
p ese amoun , shown in Table 20, has been conside ed. This
amoun has been es ima ed assuming ha he e will be a 25% o
new ins alla ion capaci y be ween he wo ex eme alues ound
in he li e a u e, a minimum g ow h by 2030 o 0.6 GW (Deloi e
Ad iso y,2017) and a maximum one o 6.5 GW (Deloi e,2018a),
upon he cu en ly 1 GW ins alled capaci y (Red Eléc ica de
España,2019). This amoun is geog aphically alloca ed by cli-
ma e zones a ound Spain acco ding o Red Eléc ica de España
(2019) and associa ed wi h he h ee demand sec o s ( esiden ial,
se ices and indus y) acco ding o Na ionalg idESO (2020). Ne -
e heless, hese dis ibu ed sola PV panels ha e a e y ma ginal
impac on he esul s o his s udy. They subs i u e u ili y-scale
sola PV ins alla ion needs (ac ually a a sligh ly la ge a io han
1:1 as some ne wo k losses a e a oided) bu do no con ibu e o
i m capaci y.
4.3. Ba e y low p ice scena ios: Ba e y p ice sensi i i ies
As esul s will show la e , ba e ies a e a om being com-
pe i i e, p o ided he ins alla ion cos s assumed in scena ios so
10552
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Table 20
Assumed ins alled PV dis ibu ed capaci y in 2030.
Technology Ins alled capaci y (MW)
Sola dis ibu ed 2467
Table 21
Ba e ies ins alla ion cos s.
Scena io Ba _cen ins all cos [=
C/kW]
25DR 133.8
P iceBa _L 30
P iceBa _LL 20
Table 22
CO2and gas p ices scena ios.
Scena io CO2[=
C/ onCO2] Na u al gas [=
C/MMBTU]
EVC_XHigh 83 27
EVC_High 62 18
Baseline 84 6
EVC_Low 90 4
a . Two addi ional scena ios (P iceBa _L and P iceBa _LL) ha e
been conside ed lowe ing he ins alla ion cos o ba e ies, as
p esen ed in Table 21. Bo h a e buil upon he 25DR scena io. The
main pu pose o he i s scena io, P iceBa _L, is o iden i y he
ba e y ins alla ion cos h eshold below which ba e ies begin
o be compe i i e enough o be compe i i e. Fo ha pu pose,
ba e ies ins alla ion cos s ha e been educed in s eps o 1=
C/kW
un il esul s show some ba e y ins alla ion, subs i u ing OCGT.
This happens o an ins alla ion cos dec ease o 77%, as shown in
Table 21. The second scena io, P iceBa _LL, allows a la ge pene-
a ion o ba e ies o unde s and he impac o he echnological
mix o enewables and he compe i i eness o o he i m capaci y
p o ide s. This is achie ed wi h a u he educ ion in ba e ies
ins alla ion cos s (85% o educ ion), as shown in Table 21.
4.4. Equi alen a iable cos scena ios: CO2and gas p ices sensi i -
i ies
CO2and gas p ices ha e a subs an ial impac on elec ici y
wholesale ma ke p ices. The e o e, a se o scena ios has been
buil o speci ically assess hei incidence on gene a ion in es -
men p io i ies. The Baseline o his se o scena ios assumes
he same p ices o gas and CO2in 2030 han all p e iously
desc ibed se s o scena ios. They ollow he alues s a ed in he
WEO2019 (In e na ional Ene gy Agency,2019) o 2030. Then,
h ee sensi i i ies o hese p ices a e pe o med. The EVC_XHigh
scena io is buil upon he i s semes e o 2022 a e age CO2
(SENDECO,2022) and na u al gas (MIBGAS,2022) p ices, which
ha e his o ically in luenced he ma ke in he Ibe ian Peninsula.
EVC_High scena io assumes ex emely high p ices o gas and
mode a ely high p ices o CO2, simila o hose he wo ld aced
in he summe , au umn, and win e o 2021, aken espec i ely
om MIBGAS (2021) and SENDECO (2021). I assumes hose
p ices will emain simila in 2030. Finally, he EVC_Low scena io
conside s he mo e ecen o ecas s up o a day o CO2(Simon,
2021) and na u al gas (Sönnichsen,2022) p ice e olu ion. These
h ee scena ios p o ide a sensi i e sensibili y analysis o he gas
and CO2emission p ices. These alues a e p esen ed in Table 22.
Uni con e sion ypes conside ed in hese cases a e: 1$ →0.84=
C
and 1 MWh→3.41MMBTU
The p ice endency o each o he h ee scena ios has been
cla i ied by calcula ing he equi alen a iable cos (EVC) in
=
C/MWh o he wo-gene a ion echnologies a ec ed by CO2and
gas p ices: OCGT and CCGT. EVC in eg a es in o a single p oduc-
ion cos pe echnology he ac ual impac o bo h he gas and
Table 23
Equi alen a iable cos o OCGT and CCGT.
Scena io OCGT [=
C/MWh] CCGT [=
C/MWh]
EVC_XHigh 258 167
EVC_High 180 115
Baseline 102 63
EVC_Low 90 54
CO2emission allowance p ices. Table 23 summa izes he esul ing
EVC o bo h echnologies. I p o ides sensible in o ma ion on
he assump ion made in each scena io. The p oduc ion cos o
bo h echnologies espec i ely inc eases and dec eases in he
EVC_High and EVC_Low sensi i i y scena ios compa ed o he
Baseline one.
5. Resul s
This sec ion p esen s and discusses he esul s p o ided by he
SPLODER model. Resul s a e o ganized ollowing he sequence o
he blocks o scena ios desc ibed p e iously.
5.1. Fi m coe icien s analysis
Figs. 2 and 3show he gene a ion and s o age op imal in es -
men decisions o he pe iod 2019–2030 as p o ided by SPLODER
o hese scena ios. Namely, Fig. 2 displays he in es men s in
enewable echnologies (wind and sola PV) o bo h scena ios,
while Fig. 3 shows he in es men s in he es o he echnologies,
mainly o ien ed o p o ide i m capaci y o he sys em (s o age
and he mal backup capaci y).
Fig. 2 shows ha he new ins alled enewable capaci y is e y
la ge (almos 73 GW) compa ed o he peak demand alue o
2030, which is assumed o be 51.39 GW and gi en he ini ially
exis en ins alled capaci y (see Table 15). This is because s o age
echnologies a e helping o dec ease enewables’ spillage. Al-
hough ins alla ion cos s a e signi ican ly lowe o sola PV han
o wind, in es men s in bo h echnologies a e balanced. This is
pa ly because sola PV p oduc ion is concen a ed in ewe hou s
han wind p oduc ion. The e o e, sola con ibu ion o he sys em
i m capaci y is much lowe (indeed, i is ze o in his s udy, as
he mo e s ess ul pe iods o he sys em happen du ing hou s
wi hou sun). Besides, he concen a ion o he sola PV in he
hou s o sunshine ends up cannibalizing he ene gy income o
sola PV. This e ec is mo e signi ican han o wind since he
la e has mo e a iabili y a di e en hou s.
On he o he hand, as shown in Fig. 3, ba e ies a e ully
disca ded, no being compe i i e compa ed o o he op ions. On
he con a y, 5 ou o 7 a ailable pumped-hyd o s o age op ions
a e selec ed. The mix is comple ed wi h he mal OCGT backup
gene a ion o mee he sys em i m capaci y equi emen s.2
By compa ing in Figs. 2 and 3, he impac o conside ing
s ic e (lowe ) i m capaci y coe icien s o sho e - e m s o age
echnologies, ha is, ba e ies and 8 h pumping s o age, no e y
ele an changes a e shown (Baseline_NewFC esul s compa ed
o Baseline ones). Renewable in es men s almos do no change,
al hough wind gene a ion comes ou sligh ly a o ed a he ex-
pense o sola PV. This is because 8 h pumping s o age loses
some compe i i eness due o i s educed i m capaci y coe icien ,
2I in es men s in gas gene a ion echnologies a e o be a oided o mee
deca boniza ion commi men s, he OCGTs in es men would be eplaced by
he es o a ailable hyd o pumping op ions and ba e ies i also needed.
Ne e heless, OCGTs would almos no p oduce, being hei ole mainly o
p o ide i m capaci y.
10553
T. F ei e-Ba celó, F. Ma ín-Ma ínez, Á. Sánchez-Mi alles e al. Ene gy Repo s 8 (2022) 10546–10560
Fig. 2. New enewable in es men s (2019–2030) in baseline scena ios.
Fig. 3. New i m capaci y in es men s (2019–2030) in baseline scena ios.
being hus eplaced by OCGT. This educes he sys em’s o al
s o age capaci y, which dis a o s sola PV mo e han wind. Also,
he lowe he s o age capaci y, he highe he o al i m capaci y
equi ed in he sys em since s o age supply peak demand. In his
case, a ound 200 MW o addi ional i m capaci y is needed. Wind
powe p o ides some i m capaci y while PV sola does no .
To comple e he analysis o he compe i i eness o i m capac-
i y p o ide s, a cos eco e y analysis o new in es men s o he
baseline_newFC is p esen ed in Fig. 4. This igu e shows, on he
le -hand ba , he o al annualized cos s aced by he echnology,
disagg ega ed in o in es men , uel, O&M and CO2 emissions
cos s, and on he igh -hand ba he o al incomes ecei ed by
he echnology, disagg ega ed in o he incomes om he hou ly
ene gy p oduc ion alued a he hou ly ene gy p ice and he
Fig. 4. Cos eco e y o new i m capaci y in es men s (2019–2030) in
Baseline_NewFC scena io.
equi ed income om he i m capaci y p o ision o balance cos s
and incomes.
I could be obse ed i s ha all selec ed echnologies do e-
co e hei o al cos s conside ing an income due o i m capaci y
p o ision equal o he missing money o each echnology. In-
deed, he capaci y paymen mechanism would ollow a ma ginal
p ice app oach o he p o ision o i m capaci y. The incomes
om capaci y paymen s would equal o exceed hese alues o
he selec ed echnologies, as OCGTs and he 8 h pumped-hyd o
s o age a e he ma ginal echnologies p o iding i m capaci y.
OCGT incomes ully come om he p o ision o i m capaci y
showing ha i s ole in p oducing ene gy will be e y ma ginal.3
On he con a y, al hough hey a e also p o iding i m capac-
i y, pumped-hyd o s o age echnologies do ha e some income
by ope a ing in he ene gy ma ke .4The ene gy ma ke - ela ed
incomes may eco e up o 60% o hei o al cos s o some o
hese echnologies ( o ins ance, he S o_40h_1), bu only 22% o
o he s. The mo e hou s he pumped-hyd o s o age can s o e, he
mo e i would ope a e and mo e income om he ene gy ma ke .
The esul s show he ele ance o capaci y paymen s o ensu e
in es men s co e he sys em i m capaci y equi emen s.
5.2. DR analysis
Fig. 5 shows he in es men decisions in enewable echnolo-
gies, and Fig. 6 hose in i m capaci y p o ide s’ echnologies
3The p oduc ion o such peaking uni s is howe e somehow unde es ima ed
in models such as SPLODER since a ully s ochas ic app oach will e eal mo e
si ua ions whe e hese back-up echnologies will p oduce some ene gy.
4These igu es a e sligh ly unde es ima ed due o he same eason as o
OCGTs. See p e ious oo no e.
10554
