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Edi o ial
Assessing isks o low-ca bon ansi ion pa hways
1. In oduc ion o isks
Limi ing clima e change o well below 2 °C, as de ined in he Pa is Ag eemen , challenges cu en g eenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions ajec o ies o many coun ies. A he coun y le el, na ionally de e mined con ibu ions (NDCs) equi e go e nmen s o
speci y, mi iga ion ac ions and policies o achie e he equi ed emissions educ ions. Howe e , hus a NDCs ha e been conse a i e
in hei ou look and ambi ion. Mo eo e , decision make s s ill s uggle o p o ide he de ails in achie ing hese pa hways ha a e
necessa y o secu e s akeholde by-in and pa icipa ion o ci izens ha a e i al o ealizing a low-ca bon ansi ion. This special issue
highligh s ha mul iple s akeholde s’ pe spec i es a all le els o go e nance a e equi ed and c ucial o he design o ansi ion
pa hways along wi h he iden i ica ion o associa ed isks.
T ansi ion pa hways consis o a se o policy ins umen s, s a egies and echnologies ha con ibu e o p omo ing low ca bon
inno a ions in one o mo e sec o s. As such hey a e a ool o discussing and compa ing he long and unce ain oads ha could lead
us owa ds a low ca bon u u e. O en, hese low ca bon ansi ion pa hways and hei in ended ou comes a e po ayed as inhe en ly
posi i e; howe e , he e a e associa ed isks ha need o be iden i ied and managed in o de o secu e hei social, economic, and
en i onmen al compa ibili y. This aises wo ques ions: “wha a e he speci ic isks in low ca bon ansi ion pa hways?” and “wha
me hods can be used o e alua e hese isks ac oss di e en con ex s and disciplines?”.
The six een pape s in his special issue con ibu e o p o iding he answe s. A summa y o each pape is p o ided in Table 2.
Mo eo e , all s udies ea u ed he e ul il a se o ou equi emen s ha we conside c ucial o he analysis o isks associa ed wi h
ansi ion pa hways: (1) They b oadly apply he same isk and unce ain y aming (Hange -Kopp e al., 2019) o desc ibe hei
indings. Eigh o he s udies in his collec ion esul om he TRANS isk p ojec , whe e he isk aming was i s de eloped and la e
applied in he empi ical s udies. The o he eigh pape s we e independen esea ch s udies ou side o he TRANS isk p ojec whe e
esea che s p ima ily applied he isk aming ex-pos . (2) Each pape illus a es di e en con ex s o low ca bon ansi ion pa hways
wi hin he ene gy, ag icul u e, indus ial and inancial sec o s co e ing a mul i ude o egions, exempla y om he Global Sou h as
well as he Global No h; mo e impo an ly hey highligh di e en con ex ual ac o s ha shape isks and s akeholde pe cep ions
he eo . (3) The s udies apply c oss-disciplina y app oaches. Finally, (4) all use a mix o quali a i e (e.g. s akeholde engagemen )
and quan i a i e me hods (e.g. modelling and s a is ical analysis) in o de o d aw conclusions wi h espec o he policy and de-
cision-making p ocesses equi ed o a i e a a low ca bon u u e.
Risk is an elusi e e m ha is di icul o speci y ac oss disciplines, o en in angible and hus ei he poo ly o inconsis en ly
de ined. Risk is o en con ounded wi h unce ain y, bu while isk always in ol es a le el o unce ain y, an unce ain y is no
necessa ily a isk. We conside unce ain y as “a s a e o incomple e knowledge ha can esul om a lack o in o ma ion o om
disag eemen abou wha is known o e en knowable” (Kun eu he e al., 2014, p. 155). Unce ain ies, as such, may esul in posi i e
ou comes, c ea ing oppo uni ies and bene i s. They also may ha e po en ial nega i e ou comes. These unce ain, po en ial nega i e
ou comes a e wha we call isks.
In he con ex o low ca bon ansi ion pa hways, we ind wo di e en pe spec i es on isk. Implemen a ion isk is he po en ial o
nega i e impac on he implemen a ion o a low ca bon pa hway; and consequen ial isk e e s o he po en ial o nega i e impac s
esul ing om he implemen a ion o a po en ial pa hway. Fig. 1 shows a aming de eloped in he TRANS isk p ojec (TRANS isk,
2015; Hange -Kopp e al., 2019) indica ing ha isks a e nega i e ou comes o unce ain ies and ha isks in ansi ion pa hways can
be iewed as implemen a ion isks o ba ie s as well as consequen ial isks o nega i e ou comes.
The dis inc ion be ween implemen a ion and consequen ial isk is no always s aigh o wa d, as he knowledge o consequen ial
isks may unc ion as a cogni i e ba ie o a policy e en being chosen, which also makes i an implemen a ion isk. Finally, mos
isks do no occu in an isola ed ashion, bu a e pa o cause and e ec chains o cascades, which o en a e di icul o iden i y. Fo
ins ance, mos mi iga ion policies suppo a ce ain echnology, and in u n his echnology may ha e nega i e impac s on he
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.eis .2020.04.009
En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
A ailable online 15 May 2020
2210-4224/ © 2020 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie B.V. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license
(h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
T
en i onmen , heal h, o o he echnologies in he ma ke . An en i onmen al impac , e.g. g eenhouse gas emissions and ai pollu ion
can po en ially cause a nega i e impac on heal h ha can, a scale, ha e nega i e impac s on local communi ies.
2. Risk as a ma e o con ex and s akeholde pe cep ions
In p ac ice de ini ions o isks a e con ex speci ic (Glickman and Gough, 1990), no he leas , because hey depend on he poin o
iew o he pe son expe iencing o obse ing he isk. Wha is nega i e o some s akeholde s, may be posi i e o o he s. This can be
especially ex eme o clima e change impac s, and mi iga ion whe e cause and e ec a e disp opo iona ely dis ibu ed among
di e en s akeholde s. This special issue places a s ong ocus on how isk impac s di e en s akeholde g oups – including hose who
in luence echnologies, policies and ac ions as well as hose who do no ha e decision making au ho i y bu a e impac ed by low
ca bon ansi ion pa hways.
In his special issue we dis inguish en i onmen al, social, economic, poli ical, policy and echnological con ex ual ac o s o ansi ion
pa hways (see Table 1). While hey a e no clea ly dis inc and o e lap in p ac ice, hey enable us o s uc u e ou hinking on speci ic
isks.
We hus summa ised he key con ex ual ac o s ha helped o speci y he isks unde in es iga ion
1
(also see summa y in Table 2).
The esul s yield some in e es ing insigh s on isks ha eme ge ac oss he con ex ual ac o s in di e en ansi ion pa hways. The
con ex ual ac o s ha appea ed mos equen ly we e social ac o s (appea ing a leas in 11 ou o 16 pape s), ollowed closely by
economic and echnological ac o s (≥10 pape s). Poli ical con ex ual ac o s also appea ed qui e equen ly (≥8 pape s) and o en
o e lapped wi h policy (≥4 pape s). Finally, en i onmen al ac o s did no s and ou as we would ha e expec ed (≥7 pape s) o low
ca bon ansi ion pa hways.
Economic con ex ual ac o s ha e di e en implica ions a he economy-wide le el, sec o al le el, and he indi idual le el.
Incumben echnologies and hei co esponding in as uc u e o sec o s including ossil uels (An osiewicz e al., 2020;Silaen e al.,
2020;Skoczkowski e al., 2020), anspo (Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020), and la ge/hea y indus y (Bachne e al., 2020;
Schneide e al., 2020;Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020) we e o en ci ed as c ucial o he economy and could be po en ial ba ie s o
low ca bon inno a ions. A he sec o al le el, businesses aced challenges wi hin he ma ke o low ca bon inno a ions such as
enewable ene gy due o hei high cos (Nikas e al., 2020). This led o unce ain ies o in es o s (Ki zing e al., 2020), needs o
inancing mechanisms (Be heau e al., 2020) as well as highe in es men cos s o low ca bon echnologies (Be heau e al., 2020;
Schneide e al., 2020). A he indi idual le el, a lack o p o essional and echnical skills o be e-employed (Skoczkowski e al., 2020)
and job losses in ossil uel sec o s (An osiewicz e al., 2020; an Vlie e al., 2020 we e highligh ed as consequen ial isks while job
gains in enewable ene gy (Nikas e al., 2020) and po en ial eskilling we e oppo uni ies.
Social con ex ual ac o s eme ge when li elihoods and well-being a e impac ed due o unequal oppo uni ies and igh s and
Fig. 1. Implemen a ion and consequen ial isk aming.
1
No e: we, he gues edi o s o his special issue, summa ised he con ex ual ac o s ha s ood ou o us in he pape s. We ha e no included e e y
con ex ual ac o p esen ed in each s udy, and he e o e acknowledge some inhe en biases in he selec ion o con ex ual ac o s.
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
262
o e lap wi h economic, echnological, poli ical and en i onmen al ac o s. Fo ins ance, employmen issues we e no only discussed
in e ms o economics, bu o en eme ged as a social ac o ha impac s li elihoods. A ansi ion in o a low ca bon economy can lead
o unemploymen , a nega i e ou come in high ca bon sec o s such as coal powe . Thus, he e is a need o conside e-employmen
in o o he sec o s (An osiewicz e al., 2020;Skoczkowski e al., 2020); bu such mi iga ion canno occu immedia ely and equi es
longe e m planning ac oss sec o s (Nikas e al., 2020). The impac o low ca bon echnologies also aises he issues o social jus ice
(Bachne e al., 2020), as enewable ene gy is o en mo e cos ly (a leas du ing he ea ly phases) and hese cos s a e o en passed o
consume s (Nikas e al., 2020). Inc eased cos o elec ici y has a ying impac s on di e en popula ions, pa icula ly o mo e
ulne able g oups (Fell e al., 2020) as well as b oade social wel a e impac s (Ki zing e al., 2020), leading o po en ial nega i e
impac s. The accep ance and esis ance o low-ca bon echnologies was also b ough up in se e al s udies a he socie al le el (A ning
e al., 2020;Bachne e al., 2020;Be heau e al., 2020;Maye e al., 2020;Schneide e al., 2020), as well as social unease due o a
lack o policy en o cemen leading o g ea e unce ain y (Taylo e al., 2020). Addi ionally, po en ial ba ie s occu ed due o
indi idual choice such as beha iou change (Bachne e al., 2020), end-use demand (Taylo e al., 2020) as well as wi h end-use
esponses o sel -consump ion (Nikas e al., 2020). These socie al ac o s a e also closely linked o esponses o echnological change.
Technological con ex ual ac o s ha we e highligh ed in he s udies p ima ily ocused on low-ca bon elec ici y gene a ion
echnologies as a means o achie e a ansi ion pa hway ( an Vlie e al., 2020). Se e al s udies explo ed he eadiness le el
(Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020), echnological awa eness (Be heau e al., 2020), echnical po en ial (Sha ma e al., 2020;
Skoczkowski e al., 2020;A ning e al., 2020;) as well as he gaps be ween he po en ial and ac ual ins alla ion o implemen a ion
(Maye e al., 2020). O he s udies explo ed ba ie in deploying low ca bon echnologies due o ene gy in as uc u e issues,
(Bachne e al., 2020), in e mi ency o enewable elec ici y (An osiewicz e al., 2020), and inadequa e selec ion ene gy echnology
op ions o biogas ene gy end-use s leading o unsuccess ul deploymen and scaling up (Silaen e al., 2020). The choice o low
echnologies is o en impac ed by o he ac o s such as poli ical and policy suppo .
Poli ical con ex ual ac o s we e closely linked o policy con ex ual ac o s. Poli ics would o en dic a e he ex en o policy suppo
o low ca bon echnologies (Maye e al., 2020;Schneide e al., 2020;Spijke e al., 2020). The implemen a ion o hese policies
would also depend on planning and coo dina ion (Bachne e al., 2020;Be heau e al., 2020). Ba ie s o adequa e policy im-
plemen a ion included he lack o coo dina ion be ween di e en le els o go e nance (Silaen e al., 2020) as well as a echnology
ha c osses mul iple policy a eas and ju isdic ions, leading o con usion and unce ain y (Taylo e al., 2020). Addi ionally, in e nal
poli ics such as poli ical agendas (Spijke e al., 2020) o poli ical ins abili y would esul in uns able policy and egula o y a-
mewo ks (Nikas e al., 2020) o con lic ing policy mixes (Maye e al., 2020) as nega i e ou comes ha h ea en a low ca bon
ansi ion.
En i onmen al con ex ual ac o s s ood ou he leas in he s udies e en hough clima e change mi iga ion is a co e p emise o low
ca bon ansi ions ( an Vlie e al., 2020). This could be due o he le el o conce n o en i onmen al issues e sus o he mo e u gen
socie al o poli ical issues. En i onmen al conce ns we e no ed when a echnology in a ansi ion pa hway impac s heal h due o poo
ou doo ai quali y (Skoczkowski e al., 2020;Spijke e al., 2020;A ning e al., 2020;) as well as poo in-doo ai quali y (Silaen
e al., 2020). Nega i e impac s on he en i onmen we e discussed in e ms o esou ce consump ion (Bachne e al., 2020) and land
use changes o ca bon leakage whe e a educ ion in a high ca bon sec o in one coun y is eplaced by inc eased p oduc ion in
ano he (Spijke e al., 2020). By and la ge, he o e all nega i e en i onmen al impac did no s and ou as a cu en isk ha needed
high a en ion. This is in line wi h ea lie s udies which e eal ha en i onmen al isk a e no necessa ily he key d i e o im-
plemen ing low ca bon pa hways; a he en i onmen al ac o s a e o en seconda y o o he ac o s such as economic and socie al
impac (see Hange e al. 2019; Lillies am e al., 2014; an Vlie e al., 2012). Fo ins ance, he e a e syne gies be ween add essing
en i onmen al and social issues, such as o g id echnologies, which can p o ide elec ici y o communi y in emo e loca ions as
well as educe emissions (Be heau e al., 2020).
Table 1
Con ex ual ac o s and co esponding isk desc ip ions.
Con ex ual ac o s Co esponding isk examples
En i onmen al con ex : he na u al esou ce base, biodi e si y, land, wa e ,
ai and o e all ecological condi ion.
En i onmen al isk: e e s o nega i e changes, and dis u bances impac ing
en i onmen sys ems and/o physical, chemical and biological p ocesses and
lows.
Social con ex : he pe cep ions, needs and p io i ies o he public which
b oadly consis s o ci izens and communi ies who a e also consume s o
goods and se ices.
Social isks: consequences such as h ea ening quali y o li e and li elihoods
ac i i ies o di e en socie al g oups and/o c ea ing inequali ies among
hem.
Economic con ex : e e s o he p oduc ion and consump ion o goods,
se ices and ma e ials as well as he dis ibu ion o esou ces wi hin a
coun y/ egion.
Economic isks: nega i e in luence on he dis ibu ion o esou ces and
ad e se inancial impac on pa o o he en i e economy.
Poli ical con ex : he ac i i ies o go e ning ins i u ions as well as poli ical
ac o s and g oups wi hin he same o di e en ju isdic ions.
Poli ical isks: decisions ha cause dissen and dispu es wi hin go e ning
bodies o mis us wi h he public.
Policy con ex : ela es o he policy ins umen s and co esponding policy
ins i u ions de eloping and implemen ing he policies.
Policy isks: policies ha do no achie e i s desi ed impac and/o con lic
wi h he aim and objec i es o policies.
Technological con ex : he applica ion o scien i ic knowledge o se e a
socie al pu pose, including ha dwa e and so wa e, and hei ela ed
p ocesses.
Technological isks: nega i e e ec caused by he in insic complex na u e
and speci ici ies o echnology de elopmen and deploymen .
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
263
Table 2
Summa y o isk discussion and me hods applied in each pape o he special issue.
Pape & opic summa y o
coun y/ egion
Implemen a ion isk (IR) &
consequen ial isk (CR)
Con ex ual ac o s S akeholde s conside ed Mul i/in e / ans-
disciplina y; QT°& QL°°
A ning e al., 2020
Modelling o gene al
and local public
accep ance based on
pe cep ions o isk and
bene i o Ca bon
Cap u e and U iliza ion
(CCU) in Ge many
IR: socie al accep ance can be
a ba ie o CCU up ake
CR: heal h and
en i onmen al isks in he
manu ac u ing p ocess o
local communi ies including
alle gies, b ea hing
di icul ies and sus ainabili y
isks on he ac ual CO2
emission educ ion bene i s
En i onmen al: CUU
echnology a gued o sa e
ossil esou ce and educe
CO2-emissions)
Social: local accep ance
depends on isk pe cep ion
while gene al accep ance
based on bene i s pe cep ion
Technological: high CUU
po en ial o CO
2
-de i ed
plas ics p oduc s
Expe s in CCU wi h a
majo i y om academia and
po en ial consume s o CCU
p oduc s
In e -disciplina y
QT: on-line su ey and
s uc u al equa ion
modelling
QL: in e iews wi h expe s
and ocus g oups and
analysed using con en
analysis
An osiewicz e al., 2020*
Modelling analysis and
assessmen o he
socioeconomic
implica ions o
ansi ioning away
om coal in Poland
IR: addi ional cos s o
in es men in ca bon- ee
sou ce
CR: manage impac s o
deca bonisa ion on economy
and socie y
Economic: p ices o ene gy,
ma ke access, job losses, and
o e all economy g ow h
Poli ical: ela ions wi h he
EU and Russia
Social: adap abili y o mining
wo k o ce
Technological:
in e mi ency o enewable
elec ici y
Go e nmen agencies o
poli ical easibili y o policy
ins umen s
Indus y o impac s on
business and employmen
En i onmen al NGOs o
po en ial impac s on clima e
change and ai quali y
In e -disciplina y
QT: ene gy sys em
modelling, dynamic
s ochas ic gene al
equilib ium modelling
QL: uzzy cogni i e maps
cons uc ed in s akeholde
wo kshops
Bachne e al., 2020*
Analysis o pa hways
owa ds clima e-
neu al i on and s eel
and elec ici y
p oduc ion in Aus ia
IR: (Lack o ) egula ion,
ma ke s uc u es &
in e nalized p ices,
coo dina ed clima e s a egy,
in es men in decen alized
solu ions
CR: S abili y o g ids and
lexibili y o ene gy sys em
(s o age); impac s o ene gy
supply, beha iou al change,
poo iming
Economical: lack o planning
and in es men isks
En i onmen al: inc easing
demand o na u al esou ces
Poli ical: lack coo dina ed
poli ical and ins i u ional
amewo k
Social: socie al accep ance
c i e ia (NIMBYism).
Negligence o social equi y
and beha iou al change
Technological: ene gy
in as uc u e
Indus y expe s
( on unne s) o c i ically
e lec ing on assump ions and
pa ame e s (consul a ion)
policy, adminis a ion and
scien i ic s akeholde s
(gene alis s)
Mul i-disciplina y
QT: mac oeconomic
modelling (compu able
gene al equilib ium wi h
an elec ici y sec o
in es men module)
QL: Semi-s uc u ed
in e iews and wo kshops
wi h back-cas ing exe cises
Be heau e al., 2020
Explo e he ole o
elec ic coope a i es in
small and emo e
islands: The example o
Philippines’ i s o -
g id, hyb id ene gy
sys em Island
o Cob ado ,
Philippines
IR: Coope a i es equi ing
high up on cos s; economic
iabili y and sys em
eliabili y; emo eness and
delay o implemen a ion o
p ojec
CR: Coope a i es as s anded
asse s, iabili y o p ojec
Socie al: skilled wo ke s,
esis ance / accep ance o
enewable ene gy
Economical: inancing
mechanisms, p i a e sec o ,
cus ome eliabili y
Poli ical: policies, lack o
planning and coo dina ion
and bu eauc acy
Technological: awa eness
and a ailabili y o enewable
ene gy
Geog aphical*: inaccessible
emo e islands: in as uc u e
& anspo needs/
dependence (*au ho
ca ego y)
Ene gy sec o expe s, elec ic
coope a i es (EC) o ice s and
membe s, island communi y
leade s, and household heads
and membe s o
unde s anding he
unce ain ies aced by he
Romblon Elec ic
Coope a i e
T ans-disciplina y
QT: household su ey and
in en o y o analyse he
unce ain ies and isks
QL: ocus g oup
discussions, and expe
in e iews
Fell e al., 2020
app oach o analysing
dis ibu ional impac s
o ene gy policies and
iden i ied mechanisms
ha may cause
dis ibu ional
injus ices and explo ed
hough scena ios
modelled o he
Uni ed Kingdom
IR: socio-poli ical
implemen a ion isk as i may
nega i ely impac ansi ion
policies
CR: Main isk explo ed is
consequen ial, i.e.
dis ibu ional injus ices
Social (jus ice): mechanisms
ha in luence dis ibu ional
ou comes on di e en
popula ion sub-g oups ( u al,
non-swi che s, low income,
elde ly, disabili y, e c.). E.g.:
high cos s, cold/ o e hea ing,
highe ne wo k cha ges,
una oidable se ice cha ges,
& educed mobili y
S akeholde s consul ed on
mechanisms causing
dis ibu ional injus ices
including go e nmen ,
egula o s, ad iso y body,
consume ad ocacy
o ganisa ion, uni e si y, and
non-uni e si y esea ch
o ganisa ions
In e -disciplina y
QT: ene gy sys ems
modelling
QL: pu pose ul
s akeholde /expe
in e iews
(con inued on nex page)
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
264
Table 2 (con inued)
Pape & opic summa y o
coun y/ egion
Implemen a ion isk (IR) &
consequen ial isk (CR)
Con ex ual ac o s S akeholde s conside ed Mul i/in e / ans-
disciplina y; QT°& QL°°
Ki zing e al., 2020
Policy p ice
ins umen s o niche
echnologies and
auc ion o upscaling
and di usion policies.
Case o sola PV in
Ge many
IR: policy choices in educing
in es o isk o niche
inno a ions and accele a e
deploymen
CR: manage exposu e o
nega i e ou comes (also
called egula o ’s eg e )
Economic & policy: inancial
iew o isk in he ma ke
ha is equi ed o e ec i e
economic ins umen
selec ion and design
Social: impac s o policy
choices on social wel a e
In es o s’ and en ep eneu s’
pe cep ion o inancial isks
Policy make s’ pe cei ed isk
o policy ins umen choice
Mul i-disciplina y
QT: economic modelling
QL: e iew on s akeholde
pe cep ion
Maye e al., 2020*
Explo e he po en ial
impac s o scaling up
sola PV ia oo ops
and g ound moun ed
sola pa ks in he
Ne he lands
IR: inconsis en policy mixes,
and inancial cons ain s, g id
balancing issues and
in as uc u e planning,
spa ial planning and
employmen
CR: scaling up PV o
elec ici y consume s and
mac oeconomic cos s
conside ing unce ain ies
Policy and poli ics:
Ne he lands no likely o
mee EU enewable ene gy
a ge s hus he go e nmen
announced mo e s ingen
ambi ions
Technology: la ge gap
be ween echnical po en ial
and ins alled po en ial
S akeholde s consul ed o
explo e isks o apid PV
expansion includes: public
bodies, businesses, ene gy
hink anks, academic, g id/
ne wo k ope a o s, ene gy
coope a i e, and
en i onmen al NGO
Mul i-disciplina y
QT: ecu si e- dynamic
gene al equilib ium model
QL: in e iews wi h
s akeholde s using
snowball sampling
Nikas e al., 2020*
Explo e bene i s and
isks o di using sola
powe h ough la ge
scale sola and sel -
consump ion,
dis ibu ed powe
gene a ion and
demand lexibili y in
G eece
IR: poo public accep ance o
esidence nea la ge scale
sola and needed suppo ing
policies
CQ: impac o bo h la ge scale
sola as well as sel -
consump ion on he economy
and households
Economic: ongoing
economic ecession, highly
cos o sola
Poli ical: uns able poli ical
en i onmen leading o
uns able policy and
egula o y amewo ks
Social: job losses may no be
immedia ely o -se in o he
sec o s; po en ial inc ease in
elec ici y p ice due o
unce ain ies in sel
consump ion and demand-
side esponse
Expe g oups o explo e
po en ial policies:
ep esen a i es om
enewable ene gy
associa ions, ene gy
ansmission sys em
ope a ions, and elec ici y
dis ibu ion ne wo k
ope a ions, policy make s,
esea che s, and GHG
emissions indus y
T ans-disciplina y
QT: agen -based ene gy
model); dynamic s ochas ic
gene al equilib ium
model), uzzy cogni i e
mapping (quali a i e inpu s
om s akeholde s)
QL: s akeholde wo kshops
Schneide e al., 2020
Explo e h ee
pa hways whe e
indus y in he po o
Ro e dam, he
Ne he lands, can
main ain i s posi ion
while educing CO2
emissions & isks
IR: implemen adop ion o
low-ca bon indus y clus e s
CR: educe impac s o
addi ional cos s on iabili y
o indus y, clima e change
Economic: in es men cos s,
compe i i eness
Poli ical: EU and global
policies on clima e change
mi iga ion Technology:
echnology eadiness
Social: accep ance o new
and exis ing echnologies
Local indus y, in h ee
clus e s
Local au ho i ies, including
he Po Au ho i y o
Ro e dam, and
en i onmen al NGOs
Mul i-disciplina y
QT: scena ios analysis;
ene gy and p oduc low
modelling
QL: wo kshops o indus y
and o o he s akeholde s
Sha ma e al., 2020
Assess deca bonisa ion
scena ios wi h
a ia ions ac oss
mul iple dimensions,
including ca bon
budge and echnology
a ailabili y in I eland
using a no el MCA
me hod
IR: a ailabili y o
echnological op ions and
esou ces, cos s, e enues and
po en ial ma ke
de elopmen , ole o
go e nmen and egula ion
CR: supply secu i y, impac s
o ai quali y, employmen
Economic: pa o a p ojec
ocused on en ep eneu ial
oppo uni ies om a low
ca bon ansi ion
Technological: ene gy
echnology po olio selec ion
based on low-ca bon and
assumed p e e ence
enewable ene gy - o new
and mo e ma u e
echnologies
S akeholde s o assess isks
include indus y (u ili ies,
SME, la ge businesses),
go e nmen depa men s and
agencies, NGOs, and lobbying
g oups
T ans-disciplina y
QT: ene gy sys em
modelling, mul i-c i e ia
analysis
QL: wo kshops eeding in o
and using model esul s
Silaen e al., 2020*
Explo e po en ial o
biogas an op ion o
cooking uel h ough 3
pe spec i es:
echnologies, co-
IR: inancing and in es men
isk due o high cos s o
a me ; lack o moni o ing
and se ice and aining
suppo o biogas
p og ammes
Poli ics and policy: na ional
and subna ional go e nmen
uni s leading o slow
implemen a ion o policies
con ac ing policies ha
p omo e biogas and LPG
Policy make s a local/
na ional le els: wan o
explo e po en ial o scale up
biogas; key esea ch pa ne
Fa me s as use s o biogas
applica ions
T ans-disciplina y
QT: mac o-economic
model, Q-me hod (applied
in s akeholde wo kshops
o collec iews on biogas)
QL: in e iews, su eys,
(con inued on nex page)
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
265
Table 2 (con inued)
Pape & opic summa y o
coun y/ egion
Implemen a ion isk (IR) &
consequen ial isk (CR)
Con ex ual ac o s S akeholde s conside ed Mul i/in e / ans-
disciplina y; QT°& QL°°
bene i s and
independence in Bali,
Indonesia
CR: dis up ion o bio-diges e
alue chain and
abandonmen o biogas
diges e s
Social and en i onmen al:
in-doo ai pollu ion om
biomass as a heal h haza d
Technology: se e al
echnological op ions o
bio uels and no all sui able
o a me s in he egion
Uni e si ies, NGOs and
banks: iews on biogas
ocus g oup and policy
dialogues; social discou se
analysis as aming
Skoczkowski e al., 2020
Explo e ansi ion
s akeholde s’ belie s
and pe cep ion abou
poli ical, economic,
en i onmen al, social
and echnological isks
and oppo uni ies o
he coal-dependen
egion o Silesia,
Poland
IR: challenges du ing a
phase-ou o coal mining and
use
CR: impac o coal-exi on
socie y in mining egion and
elec ici y supply
En i onmen al: Exis ing ai
quali y is poo
Poli ical: Powe o coal
mining
Social & economic: Lack o
employable skills in mining
communi ies
Technological: Low
enewables po en ial in
egion
Go e nmen , ade unions,
and mine managemen o
poli ical backing, social and
economic ba ie s and
impac s
Banking & inance a ailable
capi al o in es men
En i onmen al NGOs o ai
quali y
In e -disciplina y
QT: economic and
en i onmen al analysis,
isk ma ix
QL: in e iews wi h
p ac i ione s in i e sec o s,
and li e a u e e iew o
s akeholde s’ pe spec i es
Spijke e al., 2020*
Assess posi i e and
nega i e side e ec s o
wo pa hways on
educ ion o ca le and
in eg a ed manu e
managemen (IMM) o
he li es ock sec o in
he Ne he lands
IR: inancial ba ie s o IMM
CR: displacemen o ca le
a ming o o he coun ies
leading o ca bon leakage;
animal wel a e when keeping
ca le in-doo s; con e sions o
g ass land could elease soil
ca bon; loss o jobs
En i onmen and policy:
educe me hane and imp o e
ai quali y se by he EU
di ec i es; soil ca bon also a
conce n due o land use
Poli ical: elec ion
p og ammes o se e al
poli ical pa ies p omised o
educe li es ock and limi
ni ogen emissions
S akeholde s o iden i y isks
include policy make s, ene gy
indus y consul an s,
ag icul u al indus y
associa es, academic
esea che s
Mul i-disciplina y
QT: mac o- econome ic
and a mosphe ic modelling
QL: s akeholde
consul a ions h ough
in e iews and s akeholde
mee ings o ganised by
go e nmen ins i u ion
Taylo e al., 2020*
Explo e sus ainable
policies and p ac ices
o cha coal
p oduc ion and supply
in Ki ui Coun y, Kenya
IR: egula ion ba ie s,
co up ion in en o cing
policies; cha coal cu s ac oss
many policy a eas and
ju isdic ions and lead o
con usion and unce ain y
CR: o e ha es ing o
biomass and impac s on
o es esou ces and
ecosys ems, and high GHG
emissions; en o cemen o
policy may inc ease cos o
poo e ac o s in supply chain
Policy: inc eased egula ion
o educe unsus ainable
p oduc ion: p e ious pa ial
logging ban; cu en policies
o de elop licensing sys em
o p oduce s and
anspo e s
Socie y: cha coal as main
cooking uel in u ban
households; demand inc ease
pa ly due o u banisa ion
and popula ion g ow h
S akeholde includes coun y
go e nmen , esea ch
o ganiza ions, p i a e sec o ,
non-go e nmen al
o ganiza ions and cha coal
p oduce associa ions
In e -disciplina y
QT: agen -based model
QL: in e iews and
wo kshop wi h
s akeholde s; s akeholde
p o ide eedback on model
ou pu s
an Vlie e al., 2020*
Sys ema ic analysis o
he isks associa ed
wi h deca bonisa ion
pa hways in 15 case
s udies in 12 coun ies
IR: ex-pos analysis o 145
implemen a ion isks om an
exis ing esea ch p ojec
CR: ex-pos analysis o 121
consequen ial isks om an
exis ing esea ch p ojec
Economic: cos s and
economic impac s,
pa icula ly job losses, we e
he mos -men ioned isks
En i onmen al: all case
s udies we e ocussed on
clima e change mi iga ion
Technological: echnological
inno a ion was an essen ial
elemen in all pa hways.
Domain expe s (academics,
p ac i ione s) o s udy
design
Policy make s as co-designe s
and a ge audience
NGOs, business, ma ginalised
g oups o being essen ial o a
balanced and use ul ou come
In e -disciplina y
QT: economic, ene gy
sys ems, impac
assessmen , and agen -
based modelling, uzzy
cogni i e mapping, Q-
me hod
QL: li e a u e e iew,
social discou se analysis
in e iews, s akeholde
wo kshops, policy
dialogues
(con inued on nex page)
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
266
3. C oss-disciplina y and mixed me hods o analyse isks
Va ious disciplines can be applied when analysing isks ac oss di e en con ex ual ac o s. All pape s in his special issue a e a
leas mul idisciplina y (Bachne e al., 2020;Ki zing e al., 2020,Maye e al., 2020;Schneide e al., 2020;Spijke e al., 2020;
Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020) in ha au ho s con ibu ed app oaches om wo o mo e disciplines (Choi and Pak, 2006), o
assess isk and unce ain y in ansi ion pa hways. Howe e , mo e han hal go beyond mul idisciplina i y. Six pape s (A ning e al.,
2020;An osiewicz e al., 2020;Fell e al., 2020;Skoczkowski e al., 2020;Taylo e al., 2020; an Vlie e al., 2020) can be conside ed
in e disciplina y as hei au ho s collabo a i ely joined app oaches and pe spec i es om di e en disciplines o gene a e new
knowledge and added alue (Choi and Pak, 2006). Ano he ou applied aspec s o ansdisciplina y me hods (Be heau e al., 2020;
Nikas e al., 2020;Sha ma e al., 2020;Silaen e al., 2020); hey combine scien i ic knowledge and insigh wi h expe ise and know-
how om ou side academia (Polk, 2015). Mul i- and in e -disciplina y esea ch may include s akeholde s in he esea ch p ocess, bu
ansdisciplina y esea ch di e s in he ex en o which s akeholde s who ha e o li e wi h pa hway ou comes, like esiden s and
businesses, a e in eg a ed in he en i e esea ch p ocess om p oblem aming and co-design o analysing p oblems and explo ing
impac (Pohl e al., 2017).
Depending on he discipline, isk can be analysed quali a i ely o quan i a i ely (Doukas e al., 2019;Renn, 2008). All con-
ibu ions o his special issue in ol e di e en le els o in eg a ion o quali a i e and quan i a i e app oaches (see Table 2 o
de ails).
Quan i a i e esea ch mos ly explo es close-ended esea ch ques ions, wi h me hods ha include s a is ical and o he ypes o
modelling (C eswell, 2013). The quan i a i e app oaches applied in he pape s in his special issue includes: mac oeconomic models
(An osiewicz e al., 2020;Bachne e al., 2020;Maye e al., 2020;Nikas e al., 2020;Silaen e al., 2020;Spijke e al., 2020); ene gy
models (An osiewicz e al., 2020;Fell e al., 2020;Sha ma e al., 2020;Schneide e al., 2020); agen -based models (Taylo e al.,
2020;Nikas e al., 2020;); quan i a i e su ey ins umen s (A ning e al., 2020;Be heau e al., 2020); economic scena io analysis
(Ki zing e al., 2020;Schneide e al., 2020;Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020); and uzzy cogni i e mapping, which is complemen ed
by quali a i e me hods o include s akeholde p e e ences (see Nikas e al., 2020).
Gene ally, models a e able o cap u e la ge o complex se s o da a and p o ide insigh s on changes ac oss mul iple con ex ual
ac o s including changes and impac s o echnological inno a ions and policies on he economy (e.g. GDP), clima e (e.g. ca bon
emissions) along empo al scales. Howe e , he e a e many isks ela ed o clima e change and sus ainabili y ha canno be easily
quan i ied, usually bea ing mo e subjec i e ea u es (Wallquis e al., 2009;de Ven e e al., 2016;Reed e al., 2018). These a e mos
o en loca ed in he social, policy, and en i onmen al dimensions mi o ing changes in well-being, e icacy o policy measu es and
o e all en i onmen al in eg i y and a e be e assessed h ough quali a i e app oaches.
Quali a i e esea ch explo es open-ended ques ions and esea ch designs, wi h me hods ha include case s udies, na a i e e-
sea ch and pa icipa o y me hods (C eswell, 2013). Fou een ou o 15 s udies in his special issue in eg a ed s akeholde engagemen
in hei s udies h ough in e iews, ocus g oups, and/o wo kshops (Ki zing e al., 2020 ook on a heo e ical analysis o in es o s
esponse as means o include s akeholde ’s pe spec i e). O he quali a i e me hods applied in his special issue include: Q-me hod, a
bo om-up app oach o collec and in e p e s akeholde iewpoin s (Silaen e al., 2020); li e a u e e iews (e.g. Skoczkowski e al.,
2020;Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020); social discou se analysis (Silaen e al., 2020); and back cas ing exe cises which com-
plemen ed modelling wo k (Bachne e al., 2020;Sha ma e al., 2020;Schneide e al., 2020).
4. Take home messages om he special issue
T ansi ion pa hways ake place wi hin di e en poli ical, social, and economic con ex s, and he e is no uni e sal app oach o
add essing isks associa ed wi h hese pa hways. Howe e , based on he con ibu ions in his special issue, we iden i y some
Table 2 (con inued)
Pape & opic summa y o
coun y/ egion
Implemen a ion isk (IR) &
consequen ial isk (CR)
Con ex ual ac o s S akeholde s conside ed Mul i/in e / ans-
disciplina y; QT°& QL°°
Wani schke and Ho mann,
2020
Iden i y, cha ac e ize
and compa e
unce ain ies in low
ca bon ansi ion o
oad anspo in
Ge many
IR: echnology choices o
smoo h ansi ion o low-
ca bon anspo
CR: manage impac s on
domes ic alue chain and
labou ma ke
Economic: u u e demand o
anspo , la ge indus y is
impo an o na ional
economy
Technological: eadiness
and p ices o uel and ehicle
echnologies
Expe s om he anspo
ield o di e en isk aspec s
o d i e ain echnology and
in as uc u e
Mul i-disciplina y
QT: economic analysis
QL: a gumen mapping,
li e a u e e iew, expe
in e iews
°QT: Quan i a i e me hods; °°QL: Quali a i e me hods; *TRANS isk esea ch p ojec s.
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
267
o e a ching ele an ends and lessons on isks and isk managemen in low ca bon ansi ion pa hways ha a e alid ac oss
di e en decision-making con ex s.
Answe ing ou i s esea ch ques ion: “wha a e he speci ic isks in low ca bon ansi ion pa hways?”, we ind ha he o e all
dis inc ion be ween implemen a ion and consequen ial isk is a i s use ul s ep o un a el he challenges decision make s ace in
designing and ollowing low ca bon ansi ion pa hways. Managing implemen a ion isks equi es de ailed unde s anding no only o
he ba ie s hemsel es, bu also o he decision make s in ol ed and s akeholde s a ec ed. F equen ly, ba ie s esul om con-
sequen ial isks, which can undamen ally ques ion aspec s o o he en i e pa hway i sel due o i s po en ial nega i e impac s. This is
o example he case o dis ibu ional injus ices (Fell e al., 2020). Mi iga ing nega i e ou comes may include inc emen al o un-
damen al changes such as he abandoning a pa icula echnology o policy ha was ini ially in ended o play a majo ole in he
ansi ion pa hway (Silaen e al., 2020).
Risk can be mo e conc e ely explo ed when conside ing con ex ual ac o s ela ing o he en i onmen , socie y, economy, poli ical,
policy, and echnology. While he en i onmen al con ex (i.e. clima e change), may ini ially seem o be a d i e o ansi ion pa hways
a he global le el, we ha e obse ed a he local le el ha economic, social, echnological, poli ical and ac o s a e mo e impo an
ba ie s o d i e s o ansi ions. I is hese ac o s ha o e lap, in e ac , and spill o e .
Fo ins ance, se e al s udies unde line he sho alls o globally-ag eed clima e s a egies and he ins abili y o a poli ical, long-
e m and ambi ious clima e agenda, con ibu ing o o e a ching implemen a ion isks, especially hinde ing in es men oppo uni ies,
a p e equisi e o inancing deca boniza ion pa hways (An osiewicz e al., 2020;Bachne e al., 2020;Be heau e al., 2020;Ki zing
e al., 2020;Silaen e al., 2020;Taylo e al., 2020).
Ano he example is ca bon leakage, illus a ing he inhe en isks wi hin changing global ade pa e s o shi s in he loca ions o
indus ial ac i i ies he e o e causing socioeconomic isks such as loss o jobs in place o o igin, and a shi in emissions om one
coun y o ano he leading o poli ical and en i onmen al isks (Spijke e al., 2020).
Unjus ou comes a e among he key consequen ial isks in low ca bon ansi ions, and po en ially e y con o e sial. Fo example,
egions ha a e economically and socially “locked in” o ossil uel (An osiewicz e al., 2020;Silaen e al., 2020;Skoczkowski e al.,
2020) po ay di e en isk pe cep ions among s akeholde s aced wi h he ans o ma ional changes a low-ca bon ansi ion e-
qui es; pa icula ly ques ions o jus ice equi e mo e p o ound isk analyses han a me e echnoc a ic analysis and should conside he
social dimension o a enewable ansi ion agenda.
We disco e ed se e al key insigh s when add essing ou second esea ch ques ion: “Wha me hods can be used o e alua e hese isks
ac oss di e en con ex s and disciplines?”. Because he e a e such di e se isks ha a e alued subjec i ely, single-discipline assessmen
o pa hways uns he isk o in oducing epis emic bias and highligh ing e y speci ic isks o e o he s. The pape s in his special issue
sugges ha quan i a i e (modelling) me hods a e o en used o sys ema ically assess consequen ial isks, and quali a i e me hods a e
o en used o assess implemen a ion isks ( an Vlie e al., 2020). A mixed-me hod app oach was applied as a s a ing poin o p o ide
a mo e comp ehensi e analysis o implemen a ion and consequen ial isks. Fo example, s akeholde s may con ibu e o quan i a i e
me hods h ough he co-c ea ion o ansi ion pa hways na a i es ha o m he basis o scena io model uns o by p o iding
insigh s on echnology p e e ences (Bachne e al., 2020;Nikas e al., 2020;Sha ma e al., 2020;Taylo e al., 2020).
We ha e obse ed a dispa i y be ween di e en s akeholde g oups ha ha e been engaged wi hin s udies. Domain expe s
obse e and analyse echnologies o polices bu do no di ec ly ha e in luence o implemen ac ions (An osiewicz e al., 2020;Nikas
e al., 2020;Wani schke and Ho mann, 2020;). In luence s equen ly in e ac wi h people on he g ound, o example Non Go -
e nmen al O ganisa ions (NGOs) and lobbyis s ha engage closely wi h inhabi an s o egions a ec ed by a low ca bon ansi ion
(Be heau e al., 2020;Sha ma e al., 2020;Silaen e al., 2020;Spijke e al., 2020). Ano he s akeholde g oup a e decision make s
such as end-use s, banks/ unding bodies, business, and policy make s (Nikas e al., 2020). O en he oices o powe ul s akeholde s
end o domina e he discussion on ansi ion pa hways (Lieu e al., 2020). Thus, b inging in oices o g oups ypically ma ginalised
(Taylo e al., 2020;Fell e al., 2020; an Vlie e al., 2020) in pe iphe al se ings (Be heau e al., 2020) and in ulne able com-
muni ies (Fell e al., 2020) is impo an o an inclusi e and ep esen a i e policy agenda o isks in ansi ion pa hways.
Conside ing isks in he policy making p ocess, we ha e o e a ching insigh s on educing ba ie s and nega i e impac s in low
ca bon ansi ion pa hways. Risks a e con ex ual and loca ion speci ic, and mi iga ion e o s ha may wo k in one egion may no be
applicable o ano he . Despi e his, we encou age ac i e policy lea ning o be e unde s and isks obse ed in o he sec o s and
coun ies. Analysing isks based on con ex ual ac o s and aming hese as implemen a ion and consequen ial isks may help wi h
designing policies ha minimise o a oid some o hese known isks. Implemen ing a policy may be me wi h con es a ions, and his is
an inhe en isk i he policies a e no co-c ea ed; an ex-an e pa icipa o y app oach can he e o e a oid epea ed ailu e o policies
ha a e designed op-down and undesi able by local s akeholde s. Unde s anding s akeholde s’ esponse o (new) policies o ech-
nologies equi es meaning ul and inclusi e s akeholde engagemen ac oss di e en go e nance le els. In eg a ing s akeholde ’s
pe cep ions in he de elopmen o policies can imp o e socie al accep ance and help link local p io i ies wi h wide na ional and
global clima e agenda and goals. Finally, aking on boa d c oss-disciplina y and mixed me hods wi h s akeholde o co-c ea e ac ions
may elucida e op ion no ypically conside ed in policy making.
O e all, isks a e pe asi e in ansi ions pa hways, a e e y le el o de ail, in e e y heme, and o e e y s akeholde .
Sys ema ically analysing speci ic isks while conside ing he needs and conce ns o he people mos impac ed by a low ca bon
echnology can po en ially help mi iga e he isks ha could impac ou ecosys ems, communi ies, economy, and go e nance sys ems.
The e o e, ca e ul delibe a ion along wi h use o mixed me hods may b ing addi ional insigh when looking in o speci ic isks ha
Edi o ial En i onmen al Inno a ion and Socie al T ansi ions 35 (2020) 261–270
268
eme ge when s udying mul i- o- ans-disciplina y, complex issues in ansi ion pa hways. Add essing hese isks can make i easie o
gain socie al and poli ical buy-in o u n hese pa hways in o eal-wo ld policies.
Acknowledgemen
This wo k was suppo ed by he H2020 Eu opean Commission P ojec s “TRANS isk” unde g an ag eemen No. 642260.
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