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E ec s o Expo s and In es men on he
Economic G ow h in Sy ia
Adel Shakeeb Mohsen
1
PhD s uden o Economics, Uni e si i Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
Abs ac
This s udy a emp s o es he e ec o expo s and in es men on he Sy ian
economy o e he pe iod 1960-2010. The coin eg a ion es indica es ha GDP
is posi i ely and signi ican ly ela ed o expo s and in es men . The G ange
causali y es indica es unidi ec ional causali y ela ionship unning om
expo s o GDP, and bidi ec ional causali y ela ionships be ween in es men
and GDP in he sho and long un. The s udy esul indica es ha he
go e nmen 's economic policy in enhancing expo s and encou aging
in es men was a success ul policy o imp o e he Sy ian economy.
Keywo ds: Sy ia, economic de elopmen , g ow h, expo s, in es men ,
VAR
Ci e his a icle: Mohsen, A. S. (2015). E ec s o Expo s and In es men on he Economic
G ow h in Sy ia. In e na ional Jou nal o Managemen , Accoun ing and Economics, 2(6), 527-
537.
In oduc ion
Expo s can suppo he na ional economy by supplying he s a e budge wi h
ea nings and o eign cu ency ha can be used o impo ing capi al and in e media e
goods, which help in inc easing and imp o ing ou pu , and by mo i a ing p oduce s o
inc ease and imp o e hei p oduc ion, and encou aging bo h local and o eign
in es men in he coun y. In es men also suppo s he local economy by c ea ing new
job oppo uni ies, and p oducing goods and se ices o domes ic consump ion and
expo ing.
Based on he impo an ole o expo s and in es men in suppo ing he na ional
economy, he Sy ian go e nmen has wo ked ha d, since he beginning o he 21s
cen u y, o enhance expo s and encou age in es men in he coun y by di e si ica ion
1
Co esponding au ho ’s email: adelmhsen@ho mail.com
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o expo s, enhancing he compe i i eness o he Sy ia p oduc ion, libe alizing o eign
ade, imp o ing he p oduc ion base, c ea ing an a ac i e in es men clima e,
imp o ing he in as uc u e, opening up he Sy ian economy o o eign ade and
in es men , es ablish indus ial ci ies, and using mode n echnology o de elop
p oduc ion and ading wi h di e en coun ies. Figu e 1 below shows a big ise in he
alue o expo s, in es men and GDP o Sy ia in he 21s cen u y. Expo s inc eased
om USD 6839 million in 2000 o USD 20895 million in 2010, in es men inc eased
om USD 3337 million in 2000 o USD 11130 million in 2010, and GDP inc eased
om USD 19326 million in 2000 o USD 59147 million in 2010 (see Figu e 1).
Figu e 1. GDP, expo s and g oss ixed capi al o ma ion, a cu en p ice, in millions o
USD, 1960-2010. (Wo ld Bank)
Un o una ely, he wa has s a ed in Sy ia since 2011, which caused a huge damage
on he Sy ian economy, and c ea ed a new si ua ion qui e di e en han in be o e 2011.
Many ac o ies ha e been des oyed, he in as uc u e has been damaged, he de ici in
he ade balance has inc eased, and he dep ecia ion o he exchange a e o he Sy ian
pound has inc eased (SCPR, 2014).
Gi en his backd op, he aim o his s udy is o in es iga e he e ec o expo s and
in es men on he economic g ow h o Sy ia o e he pe iod 1960-2010, in o de o
know whe he he go e nmen 's economic policy in enhancing expo s and encou aging
in es men was a success ul policy, and i i is good o he Sy ian go e nmen o s ill
adop he same policy a e s opping he wa . The dependen a iable in his s udy is he
GDP. While, expo s and g oss ixed capi al o ma ion a e he independen a iables.
The o ganiza ion o his s udy is as ollows. The nex sec ion is he li e a u e e iew and
Sec ion 3 p o ides a b ie discussion on he me hodology. Sec ion 4 epo s he
empi ical esul s, and he conclusion and ecommenda ions a e p esen ed in Sec ion 5.
P e ious S udies
Many s udies ha es ed he e ec o expo s and in es men on economic g ow h o
di e en coun ies. A ew s udies ha e been aken o e iew:
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
GDP EXP GFCF
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Many empi ical s udies, including Tyle (1981), Balassa (1985), Ram (1987),
K uege (1990), Khan and Saqib (1993), and Sengup a and Espana (1994) ha e es ed
he ole o expo s in economic g ow h and ound ha he e was a posi i e ela ionship
be ween expo s and economic g ow h. Al-Yousi (1997) also ound ha he e is a
posi i e and signi ican impac o expo s on economic g ow h in ou A ab Gul
coun ies. Al-Suwaidi and Al-Shamsi (1997) concluded ha he e is a long un
ela ionship be ween expo s and economic g ow h in Egyp , and he e is a
unidi ec ional causali y ela ionship unning om economic g ow h o expo . Howe e ,
Abou-S ai (2005) indica ed ha GDP, impo s and expo s a e no coin eg a ed, and
expo s cause g ow h, bu he e is no causali y ela ionship be ween expo s and
in es men in Egyp . Alhajhoj (2007) showed ha he e is a signi ican and long un
ela ionship be ween expo s and economic g ow h in Saudi A abia, and he e is
unidi ec ional causali y ela ionship unning om expo o GDP in he sho and long
un. AL-Bawab (2009) ound ha bo h expo s and impo s a e b inging up GDP in
Jo dan. Hamuda e al (2010) concluded ha he e is a long un bidi ec ional causali y
ela ionship be ween expo and GDP in Libya du ing 1980-2007. Fu he mo e, many
o he esea che s such as Shi azi and Abdul-Manap (2004), Alja ah (2008), Hye and
Boubake (2011), and Saad (2012) ound ha he e is a posi i e ela ionship be ween
expo s and economic g ow h.
O he esea che s es ed he e ec o in es men on economic g ow h such as
Ko mendi and Megui e (1985), Le ine and Renel (1992), Mankiw e al (1992), Islam
(1995), and Caselli e al (1996) who ound ha in es men has a posi i e e ec on
economic g ow h. Mo eo e , Rami ez and Nazmi (2003) ound ha in es men suppo s
he economic g ow h o nine majo La in Ame ican na ions. Aka (2007) also ound ha
in es men a ec s posi i ely he economic g ow h in I o y Coas . Bukha i e al (2007)
und ha in es men has a long- e m e ec on economic g ow h in Ko ea, Singapo e
and Taiwan. Vo (2010) ound ha ne p i a e capi al helps o imp o ing economic
g ow h in Sou h Ko ea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and he Philippines. In addi ion,
Kandenge (2010) ound ha economic g ow h in Namibia is a ec ed posi i ely and
signi ican ly by in es men , economic eedom, expo s, impo s, human capi al and
labo . While, eal exchange a e and e ms o ade a ec i nega i ely. Hammam (2010)
also ound ha he e is a signi ican and posi i e e ec o in es men in in as uc u e,
g oss ixed capi al o ma ion, household consump ion expendi u e, o eign di ec
in es men , axes on in e na ional ade and expo s on economic g ow h, while he
go e nmen consump ion expendi u e has a signi ican and nega i e impac on he
economic g ow h o Egyp . Fu he mo e, many o he esea che s such as Qine e al
(2006), Loncan (2007), Tang e al. (2008), Me ican (2009), Adams (2009), Adhika y
(2011) and Soliu and Ib ahim (2014) ound ha in es men has a posi i e e ec on
economic g ow h. Howe e , Elboiashi e al. (2009), and Hooi and Wah (2010)
concluded ha inc ease o in es men will dep ecia e GDP g ow h.
Me hodology
The ec o au o eg ession (VAR) model will be used in his s udy. Ou model
consis s o h ee a iables: he g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP), expo s, and g oss ixed
capi al o ma ion in Sy ia. GDP is he dependen a iable. The model is p esen ed as
ollows:
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lnGDP = α + β1 lnEXP + β2 lnGFCF + ε
whe e α is he in e cep , β1 and β2 a e he coe icien s o he model, lnGDP is he
na u al log o g oss domes ic p oduc in eal alue (millions o SYP), lnEXP is he
na u al log o expo in eal alue (millions o SYP), lnGFCF is he na u al log o g oss
ixed capi al o ma ion in eal alue (millions o SYP), and ε is he e o e m.
The analysis begins wi h he uni oo es o de e mine whe he he ime se ies da a
a e s a iona y a le els o i s di e ence. The Augmen ed Dickey Fulle (ADF) uni
oo es is used in his s udy o es o he s a iona y o he a iables. A e de e mining
he o de o in eg a ion o each o he ime se ies, and i he a iables a e in eg a ed o
he same o de , he Johansen coin eg a ion es will be used o de e mine whe he he e
is any long- un o equilib ium ela ionship be ween he GDP and he o he independen
a iables in he model. I we ound ha he a iables a e coin eg a ed, he G ange
causali y es s will be conduc ed based on he VECM o de e mine he causali y
ela ionships among a iables. On he o he hand, i he e is no coin eg a ion among he
a iables, he VAR model will be employed o es o sho - un G ange causali y
be ween he a iables. Fu he mo e, he VECM will be subjec ed o he s a is ical
diagnos ic es s, namely, no mali y, se ial co ela ion, he e oskedas ici y and Ramsey
RESET es s o asce ain i s s a is ical adequacy. Las ly, impulse esponse unc ions
(IRF) es and a iance decomposi ion (VD) analysis a e used in his s udy o help in
de e mining whe he he independen a iables play any impo an ole in explaining he
a ia ion o GDP a sho and long o ecas ing ho izons.
This s udy uses annual ime se ies da a o Sy ia du ing he pe iod om 1960 o 2010.
This da a collec ed om he Wo ld Bank. All a iables in his s udy a e in eal alue.
Besides, all da a will be exp essed in he loga i hmic o m.
Empi ical Resul s and Discussion
F om he esul s o he ADF uni oo es in Table 1, we can see ha he h ee
a iables a e no s a iona y a he le els, bu became s a iona y a e i s di e encing a
leas a he 5 pe cen le el o signi icance. This means ha all he a iables a e
in eg a ed o o de 1, ha is, I (1).
Table 1. ADF uni oo es esul s
ADF
Le el
Fi s di e ence
In e cep
T end and
in e cep
None
In e cep
T end and
in e cep
None
lnGDP
-0.965873
-1.671718
2.865867
-5.319012***
-5.287074***
-4.129823***
lnEXP
-0.231398
-1.898244
4.235502
-6.765979***
-6.688559***
-5.165844***
lnGFCF
-1.593130
-1.851172
1.880108
-4.376817***
-4.432811***
-3.779701***
No e: *** Deno es signi icance a he 1 pe cen le el, and ** a he 5 pe cen le el.
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Johansen Coin eg a ion Tes Resul s
A e de e mining ha all he a iables a e s a iona y in he i s di e ence, we can
use he coin eg a ion es o de e mine he p esence o any coin eg a ion o long- un
ela ionship among he a iables based on he Johansen coin eg a ion es . Bu be o e
unning he coin eg a ion es , we un he VAR model i s o de e mine he op imal lag
leng h. The maximum lag has been se o 5 in he lag leng h selec ion p ocess. The
op imal lag leng h selec ion is 1 lags.
A e we ha e de e mined he numbe o lags, we p oceed wi h he coin eg a ion es
o he model. Table 2 shows ha he e is one coin eg a ion equa ion based on he ace
and maximum eigen alue es s. In o he wo ds, he esul s indica e ha he e is a long-
un ela ionship be ween lnGDP, lnEXP, and lnGFCF.
Table 2. Johansen coin eg a ion es esul s
No. o CE(s)
T ace S a is ic
P obabili y
Max-Eigen
S a is ic
P obabili y
= 0
27.10429***
0.0000
17.22912**
0.0397
≤ 1
9.875169
0.6521
5.954900
0.7930
≤ 2
3.920269
0.4241
3.920269
0.4241
No e: *** Deno es signi icance a he 1 pe cen le el, and ** a he 5 pe cen le el
A e ha ing ound a coin eg a ion ela ionships among he a iables, he
coin eg a ing equa ion was no malized using he eal GDP a iable. Table 3 shows he
no malized coin eg a ing ec o .
Table 3. Coin eg a ion equa ion no malized wi h espec o GDP
lnGDP
lnEXP
lnGFCF
C
1.000000
-0.531913
-0.375504
-5.956736
(0.14421)
(0.14653)
(0.99086)
F om he Table 3, he long- un lnGDP equa ion can be w i en as:
lnGDP = 5.956736 + 0.531913 lnEXP + 0.375504 lnGFCF
The coin eg a ion equa ion abo e shows ha he GDP is posi i ely ela ed o EXP
and GFCF. The coe icien o EXP indica es ha o e e y one pe cen inc eases in
expo s, he GDP will inc ease by 0.532 pe cen . This sugges s ha expo s play an
impo an ole in p omo ing economic g ow h in he coun y. An inc ease in expo s
mo i a es p oduce s o inc ease and imp o e hei p oduc ion. Expo s also supply he
s a e budge wi h ea nings and o eign cu ency ha can be used o c ea ing an
a ac i e in es men clima e, imp o ing he p oduc ion base, impo ing capi al and
in e media e goods, and using mode n echnology in he p oduc ion ac i i ies, which
encou age in es men in he coun y, and ha helps in inc easing and imp o ing ou pu
g ow h. Ou inding is in line wi h Shi azi and Abdul-Manap (2004), Alja ah (2008),
Hye and Boubake (2011), and Saad (2012)
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The coe icien o lnGFCF indica es ha o e e y one pe cen inc eases in
in es men , he GDP will inc ease by 0.376 pe cen . In es men can suppo he na ional
economy by p oducing goods and se ices, c ea ing new job oppo uni ies, and
enhancing expo s and impo s in he coun y. Besides, an inc ease in in es men s
c ea es a high deg ee o compe i ion in he local ma ke , which mo i a es p oduce s o
use mode n managemen and new echnology in hei p oduc ion ac i i ies in o de o
inc ease he quali y and quan i y o hei p oduc ion, and ha also helps in inc easing
and imp o ing ou pu g ow h in he coun y. This inding ag ees wi h he esul s
ob ained by Qine e al (2006), Loncan (2007), Tang e al (2008), Me ican (2009),
Adhika y (2011) and Soliu and Ib ahim (2014).
G ange Causali y Tes s Resul s
Since he a iables in he model a e coin eg a ed, he G ange causali y es s based
on he VECM a e used o de e mine he sho and long un causal ela ionships among
he a iables. The G ange causali y es esul s based on he VECM a e shown in Table
4. The signi icance o he coe icien o he lagged e o co ec ion e m shows he long
un causal e ec . I is clea ha he e a e unidi ec ional causali y ela ionship unning
om lnEXP o lnGDP, and bidi ec ional causali y ela ionships be ween lnGFCF and
lnGDP in he sho and long un.
Table 4. G ange causali y es esul s
Independen a iables
∑∆ lnGDP
∑∆ lnEXP
∑∆ lnGFCF
ec (-1)
∆ lnGDP
-
2.349577(6)*
2.074422(7)*
-2.559709**
∆ lnEXP
0.515957(7)
-
1.221798(7)
-1.527595
∆ lnGFCF
2.167365(3)*
7.202756(3)**
-
-2.075444**
No es: ec (-1) ep esen s he e o co ec ion e m lagged one pe iod. The numbe s in he
b acke s show he op imal lag based on he AIC. D ep esen s he i s di e ence. Only F-
s a is ics o he explana o y lagged a iables in i s di e ences a e epo ed he e. Fo he ec (-
1) he -s a is ic is epo ed ins ead. ** deno es signi icance a he 5 pe cen le el and *
indica es signi icance a he 10 pe cen le el.
S a is ical Diagnos ic Tes s Resul s
I is impo an o subjec he VECM o a numbe o diagnos ic es s, namely, he
no mali y, se ial co ela ion, he e oskedas ici y (BPG and ARCH) and Ramsey RESET
es s o asce ain i s s a is ical adequacy. A 5% le el o signi icance will be used in all
hese es s. The esul s o he diagnos ic es s a e epo ed in Table 5. The VECM wi h
lnGDP, lnEXP, and lnGFCF as he dependen a iables pass he no mali y, se ial
co ela ion, he e oskedas ici y (BPG and ARCH) and Ramsey RESET es s.
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Table 5. Resul s o he s a is ical diagnos ic es s on he VECM
P obabili y
The Depended Va iables
lnGDP
lnEXP
lnGFCF
No mali y es s
0.445123
0.414234
0.408380
Se ial co ela ion es s
0.597243
0.904438
0.281161
He e oskedas ici y (BPG) es
0.627311
0.925620
0.880175
He e oskedas ici y (ARCH) es
0.175303
0.894536
0.240775
Ramsey RESET es s
0.3219
0.6149
0.8502
No e: ** Deno es signi icance a he 1 pe cen le el, and * a he 5 pe cen le el
Impulse Response Func ions (IRF) Tes Resul s
Impulse esponse unc ions (IRF) allow us o s udy he dynamic e ec s o a
pa icula a iable’s shock on he o he a iables ha a e included in he same model.
Besides, we can examine he dynamic beha io o he imes se ies o e en-yea o ecas
ho izon. The e a e many op ions o ans o ming he impulses. We will use he
gene alized impulse esponse unc ions (GIRF). Figu e 2 shows ha when he e is a
shock in lnEXP o lnGFCF, lnGDP will espond posi i ely in he ollowing yea s.
Figu e 2. Gene alized impulse esponse unc ions (GIRF) esul s
Va iance Decomposi ion (VD) Analysis Resul s
The a iance decomposi ion (VD) o 1-yea o 10-yea o ecas ho izons will be
applied o explain how much o he unce ain y conce ning he p edic ion o he
dependen a iable can be explained by he unce ain y su ounding he o he a iables
in he same model du ing he o ecas ho izon.
The o ecas e o a iance decomposi ions o he a iables in ou model a e gi en in
Table 6. In he i s yea , he e o a iance o GDP is exclusi ely gene a ed by i s own
inno a ions and has been dec easing since hen o he a ious o ecas ho izons.
Howe e , a he 10-yea o ecas ho izon, i s own shocks con ibu e abou 50% o he
o ecas e o a iance. On he o he hand, lnEXP and lnGFCF shocks explain 48% and
2% espec i ely o he o ecas e o a iance o GDP. The con ibu ions o lnEXP in
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explaining lnGDP o ecas e o a iance ha e inc eased du ing he 10-yea o ecas
pe iod, bu he e a e no signi ican changes in he con ibu ion o lnGFCF.
Table 6. Va iance decomposi ion (VD) analysis esul s
Va iance Decomposi ion o lnGDP:
Pe iod
S.E.
LNGDP
LNEXP
LNGFCF
1
0.118056
100.0000
0.000000
0.000000
2
0.161628
97.10510
2.402894
0.492004
3
0.195388
91.51671
7.249595
1.233698
4
0.225790
84.59089
13.50358
1.905526
5
0.254906
77.38648
20.25740
2.356123
6
0.283446
70.54385
26.89532
2.560833
7
0.311618
64.36495
33.07360
2.561445
8
0.339448
58.93917
38.63888
2.421950
9
0.366908
54.24387
43.55135
2.204774
10
0.393963
50.20746
47.83144
1.961091
Conclusion
This s udy in es iga ed he e ec o in es men and expo s on he economic g ow h
o Sy ia using annual ime se ies da a om 1960 o 2010. The model has h ee
a iables, wi h he GDP as he dependen a iable. The ADF uni oo es , Johansen
coin eg a ion es , G ange causali y es s, impulse esponse unc ions (IRF), and
a iance decomposi ion (VD) analysis we e used in his s udy. The ADF es esul s
indica e all a iables a e I(1). The Johansen coin eg a ion es showed ha expo s and
in es men ha e a posi i e and signi ican long- un ela ionship wi h GDP.
Fu he mo e, om he G ange causali y es s, we ound ha he e a e unidi ec ional
causali y ela ionship unning om expo s o GDP, and bidi ec ional causali y
ela ionships be ween in es men and GDP in he sho and long un. The impulse
esponse unc ions (IRFs) indica ed ha when he e when he e is a shock o expo s o
in es men , GDP will espond posi i ely in he ollowing yea s. The a iance
decomposi ion (VD) analysis showed ha o e a en-yea o ecas ing ho izon, expo s
and in es men shocks explain 48% and 2% espec i ely o he o ecas e o a iance
o GDP.
Based on he esul s o his s udy, i is i al o he Sy ian go e nmen o enhance
expo s, encou age in es men , c ea e an a ac i e in es men clima e and imp o e he
quali y o he Sy ian p oduc s in o de o imp o e he Sy ian economy. Finally, he
go e nmen 's economic policy in enhancing expo s and encou aging in es men was a
success ul policy o imp o e he Sy ian economy. Hence, i is i al o he Sy ian
go e nmen o s ill adop he same policy a e s opping he wa .
In e na ional Jou nal o Managemen , Accoun ing and Economics
Vol. 2, No. 6, June, 2015
ISSN 2383-2126 (Online)
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535
Re e ences
Abou-S ai , F. (2005). A e expo s he engine o economic g ow h? An applica ion o
coin eg a ion and causali y analysis o Egyp , 1977-2003. Tunis: A ican De elopmen
Bank.
Adams, S. (2009). Fo eign Di ec in es men , domes ic in es men , and economic
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