Sep embe 2025
Wa e
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In many wa e sca ce coun ies in he Middle Eas
and No he n A ica (MENA), hea y ain all has
led o lash loods ha ha e caused eno mous
damage. The inc easing impac o clima e change
is u he in ensi ying he egion’s ulne abili y.
One o he main asks o clima e change
adap a ion is, he e o e, o minimize lash lood
damages and maximize he bene i s o hea y
ain all by imp o ing ainwa e e en ion.
Resea ch indings om Jo dan ha can be
applied o he MENA egion demons a e he
need o in eg a ed s a egies and holis ic
app oaches o imp o e isk assessmen and
planning, and o s eng hen esilience. Mapping
and modelling me hods isualize a eas a isk o
looding and ulne abili y o clima e change, e en
in coun ies whe e da a is sca ce, such as Jo dan.
When selec ing measu es o educe ulne abili y
o clima e change, i is impo an o conside
a wide ange o op ions, including na u e-based
solu ions.
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
1 — O e come s uc u al challenges: An o e a ching s a egy
o lash lood managemen is needed o be e coo dina e p oj-
ec s and go e nmen ac i i ies. S eng hening he ela ionship
and communica ion be ween go e nmen agencies and local
communi ies is impo an o e ec i e law en o cemen and
implemen a ion o lash lood measu es.
2 — Imp o e da a and make i accessible: Basic da a on c i ical
in as uc u e, social aspec s and en i onmen al ac o s
(in pa icula ain all, uno , and soil da a) needs o be imp o ed
and in eg a ed in o ulne abili y analyses o enable mo e obus
isk assessmen and planning.
3 — Use pa icipa o y app oaches: To comp ehensi ely in eg a e
measu es o educe lash looding in o planning, b oad s akehold-
e pa icipa ion and be e knowledge in eg a ion a e equi ed.
A join unde s anding o he planning goals such as lash lood isk
educ ion, quali y o li e o cul u al he i age p ese a ion helps
o s ee he pa icipa o y p ocess.
4 — Make use o open space and os e na u e based solu ions:
In iew o he apid u baniza ion end, he emaining open spaces
should be conside ed o implemen ing na u e-based solu ions
(NBS). NBS help o imp o e clima e esilience by e aining ain all
uno and imp o ing wa e in il a ion.
ISOE Policy B ie — No. 11
Lessons lea n
om Jo dan
Flash lood
managemen in
a id and da a-sca ce
coun ies
—
2
ISOE POLICY BRIEF — NO. 11
In oduc ion and p oblem s a emen
Many coun ies in he Middle Eas
and No he n A ica (MENA) a e
cha ac e ised by a ho and a id
dese clima e, which ende s hem
highly suscep ible o clima e
change and ex eme clima ic e en s
(Lelie eld e al. 2014). O hese,
lash loods o en esul in signi ican
damage o people and he en i on-
men , caused by sudden in ense
ain all e en s. Be ween 1950 and
2025, 302 lash lood e en s we e
eco ded in he MENA egion
(Eme gency E en s Da abase, 2025,
igu e 1). The ca as ophic looding
in he Pe sian Gul egion in Ap il
2024 esul ed in a leas 46 dea hs,
high ligh ing he des uc i e dange
o such e en s.
Du ing in e na ional deba es on
clima e adap a ion, he p o ision o
clima e se ices o isk p e en ion
is a high poli ical p io i y, bu hey
ha e no ye been pu in o p ac ice
su icien ly. Sound hyd ological and
me eo ological knowledge is needed
o p edic he occu ence and in en-
si y o lash loods mo e accu a ely.
Howe e , limi ed me eo ological
da a and agmen ed ins i u ional
coo dina ion esul in weak isk
mi iga ion s a egies ha challenge
e ec i e esponse and p epa ed-
ness. In addi ion, he inc easing
impac o clima e change and he
high u baniza ion p essu e, com-
bined wi h limi ed public awa eness
and cons ained inancial esou ces,
in ensi y he egion’s ulne abili y.
Figu e 1: Map showing numbe o lood e en s in he MENA egion om
1950 o 2025 based on eco ds in EM-Da a (Eme gency E en s Da abase, 2025).
E idence and Analysis
O e come s uc u al challenges
in lash lood managemen
S uc u al challenges include weak ins i u ional coo dina-
ion o lash lood managemen , o e lapping o unclea
esponsibili ies be ween go e nmen agencies, limi ed co-
ope a ion be ween go e nmen sec o s (e.g. wa e , en i on-
men and ci il p o ec ion) and inadequa e en o cemen o
building and land use egula ions (Loudyi and Kan oush
2020). To s uc u e and be e coo dina e he p ojec s and
go e nmen ac i i ies on lash lood managemen i is key
o enhance he coo dina ion be ween go e nmen agen-
cies, o example h ough an o e a ching s a egy o lash
lood managemen . Recen p ojec s on lash lood manage-
men including CapTain Rain in Jo dan (B inkmann and
Ziegle 2025) enhanced he coo dina ion be ween go e n-
men agencies and p ojec s h ough hei s ee ing and
echnical commi ees and by wo kshops and pa icipa o y
planning app oaches. Capaci y building o go e men o i-
cials was conduc ed o s eng hen owne ship and quali ica-
ions wi h he goal o sus ain and build on p ojec esul s.
The owne ship o p ojec esul s and ule compliance by
local communi ies is low, because e y ew p ojec s
in eg a ed local communi ies in o p ojec designs and
decision-making p ocesses. The e a e a ew go e nmen
incen i es o local communi ies o cons uc lash lood
measu es. I is key o u he s eng hen he ela ionship
be ween go e nmen agencies and local communi ies
h ough pa icipa o y p ocesses as well as join p ojec s o
de elop and es ablish u u e wo king ou ines. Only h ough
close coope a ion and in ol emen o local s akeholde s
hei knowledge and needs can be conside ed and a solu-
ion add essing hei equi emen s de ined. Like his hei
accep ance and commi men is eached and a sus ainable
suppo and ule compliance gua an eed.
3
ISOE POLICY BRIEF — NO. 11
Imp o e isk and ulne abili y
assessmen
A lash lood isk assessmen is he i s s ep in de eloping
lood managemen plans and planning isk mi iga ion
measu es. Hyd ological and hyd aulic models a e used o
analyse looding a eas and dep hs. Hyd ological models
gi e a as o e iew abou uno cu es depending on ain-
all e en s, opog aphy, soil and land use. They a e ela i ely
easy o se up and as o compu e. Hyd aulic models p o-
duce spa ially de ailed in o ma ion abou wa e le els and
low eloci ies in inunda ed a eas, bu equi e highe expe
knowledge and compu a ional powe as well as de ailed
da a on in as uc u e. Combined wi h da a abou people,
in as uc u e, and ecosys em se ices, high, medium and
low isk a eas a e iden i ied. The una ailabili y and some-
imes insu icien quali y o da a, especially o he calib a-
ion and alida ion o lood models, is a se ious challenge
o lood isk assessmen in he MENA egion (Loudyi and
Kan oush 2020, Hohmann e al. 2024). I is he e o e
impe a i e o imp o e he da a basis as well as he me hod-
ological s anda ds and capaci ies o lash lood isk
assessmen .
In egions whe e da a is sca ce, open-sou ce da ase s such
as OpenS ee Map (OSM) a e a aluable addi ion, o e ing
a lexible and cos -e ec i e ounda ion, pa icula ly o
s uc u al and land use da a. Combined wi h DEMs, emo e
sensing da a and measu emen da a, i can signi ican ly
imp o e da a a ailabili y.
In addi ion o he isk assessmen , a lash lood ulne a-
bili y analysis and assessmen ( igu e 2) suppo s deci-
sion-making in u ban planning by iden i ying ulne able
a eas and a eas wi h high adap i e capaci y. Based on his
assessmen , bo h adap a ion s a egies and measu es can
be selec ed o educe lash lood isks and ulne abili y
o he local popula ion. Vulne able a eas would be p io i y
a eas o u u e implemen a ion o lash lood mi iga ion
measu es.
Figu e 2: Concep ional amewo k o an in eg a ed ulne abili y analysis
o lash loods and associa ed ac i i ies wi hin he Ge man Jo danian
esea ch p ojec CapTain Rain (B inkmann and Ziegle 2025).
Me hods – ulne abili y assessmen cycle
4
Wi hin CapTain Rain, he hyd aulic modeling app oach was based on he Ge man s anda d
DWA-M 119 (DWA 2016) and adap ed o he local condi ions in Jo dan. Da a gaps o hyd ological
and hyd aulic modelling and he ulne abili y analysis we e compensa ed using Open S ee Map
(OSM) da a o buildings and building ypes, land use in o ma ion om sa elli e image analysis and
socio-economic da a ex ac ed om in e iews wi h expe s and local esiden s.
Fo he ulne abili y analysis a social-ecological concep was used ha accoun o he di e en
ulne abili y componen s (exposu e, sensi i i y and adap i e capaci y; Thiaul e al. 2021) and
conside s social, physical and ecological aspec s. Special a en ion was gi en o adap i e capaci y,
which in ou assessmen indica es he economic po en ial and he a ailabili y o open space o
u u e implemen a ion o measu es.
Example o an in eg a ed ulne abili y
analysis in Jo dan
Figu e 3: Combined
ulne abili y maps
showing all domains
o sensi i i y and
exposu e (le ) and
o adap i e capaci y
( igh ) o a wa e shed
in Amman. The lo-
ca ion o he Roman
hea e is shown o
o ien a ion pu poses
(Sou ce: B inkmann e
al. 2025)
SENSITIVITY AND EXPOSURE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Resul s o a wa e shed in Amman
●The mos ulne able a eas we e de ec -
ed in he eas o he s udied wa e shed
(Down own Amman): Highes buil -up
a ea, highes sensi i i y o esiden s
(many disad an aged inhabi an s)
and many exposed a eas (p oximi y o
lood pa h).
●The highes adap i e capaci y was
ound in he no hwes and wi hin he
subca chmen a ea o Ma j Al Hamam:
Open space in public and p i a e land
a ailable.
Gi en he g ea po en ial o open space
on p i a e p ope y and he willingness
o ci izens o implemen measu es, i is
sugges ed ha mo e incen i es should be
c ea ed o p omo e he implemen a ion
o measu es educing lash lood damage.
Public ins i u ions should also demons a e
measu es on public land. Mo eo e , new
neighbou hoods should con ain espec-
i e measu es al eady in hei planning
p ocess.
INFOBOX 1
ISOE POLICY BRIEF — NO. 11
5
ISOE POLICY BRIEF — NO. 11
Figu e 4: O e iew o a s epwise planning p ocess
comp ising da a collec ion and analysis, planning
and localiza ion, and de elopmen and s a egy
(Schumann-Hindenbe g e al. 2025).
3 De elopmen and
s a egy
●Scena io de elopmen
and modelling
●Impac assessmen and
eadjus men
●In eg a ion in o
planning concep s
●De elopmen o
de ailed plans
1 Da a collec ion and
analysis
●Iden i ica ion o
planning a ea and da a
collec ion
●Ca ego iza ion o land
use ypes
●Assessmen o a ea
po en ial
2 Planning and
locali za ion
●S akeholde
engagemen
●Iden i ica ion o
planning goals and
measu es
●De e mina ion o en y
poin s and ocus a eas
●Selec ion and
localiza ion o measu es
The esul s o he isk and ulne abili y assessmen a e
used o in o m he planning, selec ion and implemen a ion
o lood mi iga ion measu es. This p ocess equi es b oad
s akeholde pa icipa ion and he in eg a ion o di e en
knowledge bases. When de e mining sui able measu es,
he a ious needs and pe spec i es o s akeholde g oups
mus be aken in o accoun and in eg a ed by designing
and e alua ing p omising measu es in coope a ion wi h
local s akeholde s and go e nmen o icials wi h di e en
a eas o esponsibili y. This ansdisciplina y app oach o
pa icipa o y planning is an i e a i e p ocess ( igu e 4).
I begins wi h he join selec ion o he planning a ea and
he subsequen da a collec ion and analysis. On his basis,
planning objec i es (e.g. educing damage om lash
loods, imp o ing quali y o li e, o p ese ing cul u al
he i age) a e de ined and sui able measu es a e iden i ied,
selec ed, and localized.
A ange o di e en measu es a e a ailable o lash lood
isk educ ion (mi iga ion) and hus adap a ion o clima e
change. While la ge-scale echnical measu es, such as
he cons uc ion o cul e s, may o e a pa ial solu ion,
hey a e cons ained by limi a ions in cons uc ion me h-
ods, cos s and he a ailabili y o space. Fu he mo e, pu ely
echnical measu es a e no su icien o deal wi h he dam-
age caused by lash loods in u ban a eas. When selec ing
measu es, he mul i unc ional po en ial o na u e-based
solu ions such as quali y o s ay, biodi e si y o cooling is
o en o e looked (Uni ed Na ions Global Compac , 2019).
An in eg a ed se o lash lood isk mi iga ion measu es,
ideally in public and p i a e a eas, is needed o signi ican ly
educe he damage po en ial.
Pa icipa o y app oaches o
he selec ion and implemen a ion
o lood mi iga ion measu es
S eps o a pa icipa o y planning p ocess
The po en ial o na u e based
solu ions in Jo dan
INFOBOX 2
6
Conclusion and u he in o ma ion
Flash lood isks in he MENA egion a e
inc easing wi h clima e change, and ulne a-
bili y is high. To educe lash lood ulne a-
bili y, clima e se ices can con ibu e o be e
in o ma ion, decision-making and ea ly
wa ning. A majo challenge o obus clima e
se ices is he limi ed access o and quali y
o da a. T ansdisciplina y collabo a ion
and pa icipa o y planning ools imp o e da a
exchange, a oid duplica ion o wo k and
enhance p edic ion, ea ly wa ning and a ge -
ed esponses. In his ega d, es ablishing
s anda ds o modelling (in obox 1), as well
as me eo ological and hyd ological moni o ing
is essen ial in o de o syn hesize (p ojec )
ac i i ies. Implemen ing na u e based solu-
ions should be in eg a ed in o pa icipa o y
planning p ocesses in ol ing a ious s ake-
holde s, s a ing wi h sha ed goals and inco -
po a ing a wide ange o measu es o be o -
malized in lash lood isk managemen plans.
Figu e 5: Examples o na u e-based solu-
ions in Jo dan: Res o ed his o ic check dams
in he Wadi Musa egion ( op), g een oo s a
he Cen al Mosque in Amman (bo om).
ISOE POLICY BRIEF — NO. 11
Wi hin he CapTain Rain p ojec a pa icipa o y planning p ocess was used
o highligh he po en ial o na u e based solu ions in Wadi Musa and Amman
( igu e 5). Hyd aulic simula ions o a wa e shed in Amman e ealed ha
implemen ing blue-g een in as uc u e measu es in bo h p i a e and public
spaces could educe peak uno by 75 % (Schumann-Hindenbe g e al., 2025).
In Amman, unde eloped a eas and a eas unde de elopmen can
be adap ed wi h blue-g een in as uc u e in addi ion o echnical measu es:
●S ee s can be edesigned o accommoda e bioswales and
in il a ion enches.
●Public comme cial buildings ha e a good po en ial o implemen g een
o blue oo s.
●Spaces be ween he comme cial building, ini ially p oposed
as a plaza, ha e po en ial o be con e ed in o “g een co ido s”,
mul i unc ional spaces used o e ain he s o mwa e .
●Pa king spaces ha e po en ial o inc ease in il a ion: In pe meable
soils, pa ing can be laid in such a way ha ainwa e con ibu es
o g oundwa e echa ge.
●Incen i es should be c ea ed o he implemen a ion o measu es
on p i a e land.
Abou he p ojec
The Ge man-Jo danian esea ch p ojec CapTain Rain (“Cap u e and e ain
hea y ain alls in Jo dan”; du a ion: June 2021–July 2024; ) was unded by he
Ge man Fede al Minis y o Resea ch, Technology and Space (BMFTR).
The aim was o help imp o e cu en me hods and ools o p edic ing lash
loods and p e en ing o damage. Vulne abili y analyses we e ca ied ou , da a
managemen ools o ea ly wa ning we e p o ided, measu es o educe he
damage caused by lash loods h ough he use o na u e based solu ions we e
iden i ied, and ecommenda ions o u ban planning and ea ly wa ning sys ems
we e de eloped. Fu u e scena ios we e simula ed o Amman and Wadi Musa
o assess he impac s o clima e change, u banisa ion and how speci ic
measu es can help educe ulne abili y.
Ge man p ojec eam: Ins i u e o Social-Ecological Resea ch (ISOE); Koblenz
Uni e si y o Applied Sciences; Hambu ge S ad en wässe ung AöR; Po sdam
Ins i u e o Clima e Impac Resea ch (PIK); Ins i u e o Technical and Scien i ic
Hyd ology (i wh); KISTERS AG
Jo danian esea ch pa ne s: Minis y o Wa e and I iga ion o Jo dan (MWI);
Minis y o En i onmen o Jo dan (MoE); Jo dan Me eo ological Depa men (JMD);
Royal Jo danian Geog aphic Cen e (RJGC); G ea e Amman Municipali y (GAM);
Na ional Ag icul u al Resea ch Cen e (NARC); Pe a De elopmen and Tou ism
Region Au ho i y (PDTRA)
www.cap ain- ain.de
7
ISOE POLICY BRIEF — NO. 11
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16950157
ISSN: 2365-1148
Acos a-Coll, M., F. Balles e -Me elo, M. Ma inez-
Pei ó, E. de La Hoz-F anco (2018): Real-Time Ea ly
Wa ning Sys em Design o Plu ial Flash Floods
– A Re iew. Senso s 18 (7), 2255. DOI: 10.3390/
s18072255
B inkmann, K., D. Ziegle (eds.) (2025): Cap u e
and e ain hea y ain alls in Jo dan: Findings
o a ansdisciplina y Ge man-Jo danian esea ch
p ojec . F ank u am Main: Ins i u e o
Social-Ecological Resea ch (ISOE).
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16894182
B inkmann, K., C. Hohmann, A. Awad (2025):
In eg a ed ulne abili y assessmen . In:
B inkmann, K., D. Ziegle (eds.): Cap u e and e ain
hea y ain alls in Jo dan: Findings o a ansdisci-
plina y Ge man-Jo danian esea ch p ojec .
F ank u am Main: Ins i u e o Social-Ecological
Resea ch (ISOE), 63–68. DOI: 10.5281/zeno-
do.16894182
DWA (2016): DWA-M 119 – Risikomanagemen
in de kommunalen Übe lu ungs o so ge
ü En wässe ungssys eme bei S a k egen
(Risk managemen in municipal lood p e en ion
o d ainage sys ems du ing hea y ain). Henne :
Ge man Associa ion o Wa e , Was ewa e and
Was e (DWA). ISBN: 978-3-88721-393-0
EM-DAT - Eme gency E en s Da abase (2025).
B ussels, Belgium: CRED/UCLou ain. A ailable a :
h ps://www.emda .be/
Hohmann, C., C. Maus, H. Lebe ke, A. Ahmad,
P. Ho mann, D. Ziegle (2024): Hyd ological
app oaches o assess lash lood isks in da a
sca ce and clima e-change a ec ed egions like
Jo dan. Fo um ü Hyd ologie und Wasse be-
wi scha ung 45, 25–36. DOI: 10.14617/ o .hyd ol.
wasbew.45.24
Lelie eld, J., P. Hadjinicolaou, E. Kos opoulou,
C. Giannakopoulos, A. Pozze , M. Tana h e, E. Ty lis
(2014): Model p ojec ed hea ex emes and ai
pollu ion in he eas e n Medi e anean and
Middle Eas in he wen y- i s cen u y. Regional
En i onmen al Change, 14: 1937–1949.
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0444-4
Loudyi, D., S. A. Kan oush (2020): Flood isk
managemen in he Middle Eas and No h A ica
(MENA) egion. U ban Wa e Jou nal 17 (5),
379–380. DOI: 10.1080/1573062X.2020.1777754
Schumann-Hindenbe g, D., A. Awad, K. B inkmann,
L. Föls e , M. Winke (2025): In eg a ed planning
o educing lash lood isk h ough blue-g een
in as uc u e: A guideline using he ci y o Amman
in Jo dan as an example. F ank u am Main: Ins i-
u e o Social-Ecological Resea ch (ISOE).
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REFERENCES CITATION
B inkmann, Ka ja, Ma kus Rauchecke ,
Ma ina Winke , Dö e Ziegle (2025): Flash
lood managemen in a id and da a-sca ce
coun ies: Lessons lea n om Jo dan.
ISOE Policy B ie , 11. F ank u am Main:
Ins i u e o Social-Ecological Resea ch
(ISOE). DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16950157
Au ho s: Ka ja B inkmann1, Ma kus Rauchecke 1,
Ma ina Winke 1, Dö e Ziegle 2
1 Ins i u e o Social-Ecological Resea ch (ISOE)
2 Koblenz Uni e si y o Applied Sciences
Key wo ds: Vulne abili y analysis; isk mi iga ion;
na u e based solu ions; pa icipa o y planning
Acknowledgemen s: We would like o hank he
CapTain Rain p ojec eam and ou Jo danian
esea ch pa ne s o hei aluable con ibu-
ions and excellen coope a ion. The Fede al
Minis y o Resea ch, Technology and Space
(BMFTR) unded he p ojec CapTain Rain
as pa o he unding measu e “CLIENT II –
In e na ional Pa ne ships o Sus ainable
Inno a ion” in he con ex o he ame-wo k
p og am “Resea ch o Sus ainable De elop-
men ” (FONA) unde he unding code
01LZ2006A-F.
The esponsibili y o he con en o his
publica ion lies wi h he au ho s.
Images: AlGhad Newspape (Co e Pho o
showing looded Roman Thea e in Amman);
ISOE (p. 6, igu e 5)
Legal No ice
Au ho s: Ka ja B inkmann, Ma kus Rauchecke ,
Ma ina Winke , Dö e Ziegle
Edi o s: Melanie Neuga , Ve ena Rossow
Design, Layou : I is D esle
Please con ac us a :
Ins i u e o Social-Ecological Resea ch
(ISOE)
Hambu ge Allee 45
60486 F ank u am Main, Ge many
Phone +49 69 707 69 19-0
in [email protected]
www.isoe.de
The Ins i u e o
Social-Ecological Resea ch (ISOE)
The Ins i u e o Social-Ecological Resea ch (ISOE) is one o he
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socie y, we c ea e spaces o change owa ds sus ainabili y.
The ISOE Policy B ie s p o ide in-dep h analyses o cu en
issues and challenges in socie al ans o ma ion p ocesses
owa ds sus ainabili y. This o ma o e s policymake s, public
adminis a o s, and jou nalis s well- ounded backg ound
in o ma ion and esea ch-based policy ecommenda ions.
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