How to approach consensus on climate tipping points and why it is important

Thomas S ocke
Oeschge Cen e o Clima e Change Resea ch
Uni e si y o Be n, Swi ze land
Mo ing Beyond Unce ain y: Re hinking Clima e Models and Tipping Poin s
5No embe 2024
How o app oach consensus on clima e
ipping poin s and why i is impo an
high le el o a en ion by public and policymake s
o en (ab-)used o exp ess u gency o clima e ac ion
po en ial o di ide he clima e science communi y
Tipping Poin s —Su p ises —High Impac Low Likelihood e en s
Tipping poin s and su p ises: Assis ing decision making
IPCC, 2024, P60, In .6
Scien i ic assessmen would acili a e consensus
and accele a e unde s anding
P oposal o IPCC AR7 o a Special Repo was
unsuccess ul
Highly policy- ele an opic o be assessed ac oss he
h ee IPCC Wo king G oups
The IPCC conside s an Expe Mee ing in 2025 on
High-Impac E en s and Tipping Poin s
AR7 Scoping: Decembe 9-13, 2024
Tipping poin s and su p ises: Assis ing decision making
The IPCC conside s … ???
Boe s, Ghil, S ocke , 2022
Many elemen s a e p oposed o ipping and su p ises

A lan ic Me idional O e u ning Ci cula ion: CMIP6 models
IPCC 2023, WGI Fig. 4.6 Romanou e al., 2023
AMOC: Models and Obse a ions
IPCC 2023, WGI Fig. 4.6 Volko e al., 2024
Zhang e al., 2023
Wes e n bounda y
cu en s
Sub opical
upwelling zones
Sou he n Ocean
CMIP6 SST Bias
Tipping Poin s: Sys ema ic model sho comings
Tipping Poin s: Sys ema ic model sho comings
50 km 2 km
Schä e al., 2024Hewi e al., 2022