Assessing Home-Field Ad an age in he P esiden s Cup:
Impac on Compe i i e Balance and Team Pe o mance
Collin Kneiss, Hun e Geise, Cha lo e Howland
Jus in Eh lich
Falk College o Spo , Sy acuse Uni e si y, 150 C ouse D , Sy acuse, NY 13244
Abs ac
The P esiden s Cup p o ides a unique se ing o analyze home- ield ad an age (HFA) in
a wo- eam compe i ion wi h ze o-sum sco ing. Ou analysis iden i ies a s a is ically signi ican
HFA di e en ial o 4.13 poin s, co esponding o a 2.07-poin ad an age pe eam. Al hough he
e en al e na es hos loca ions, his ad an age does no ully o se he o e all sco ing dispa i y
once abili y di e ences a e con olled o , sugges ing ha con ex ual ac o s—such as eam
cohesion wi hin Team USA—may shape compe i i e balance.
A he playe le el, we ind no e idence ha gol e s pe o m abo e o below hei
O icial Wo ld Gol Rankings (OWGR) in P esiden s Cup play, wi h a non-signi ican coe icien
es ima ed nea ze o. This e lec s he inhe en andomness o gol om sho o sho , hole o hole,
and ound o ound. While OWGR e ec i ely cap u es long- e m abili y, i is a poo p edic o o
sho - e m, ound-le el pe o mance.
A e accoun ing o HFA and abili y di e ences, we es ima e ha Team USA holds a
signi ican 3.24-poin ad an age o e Team In e na ional, co esponding o a 6.47-poin swing in
o e all di e en ial. These indings highligh he endu ing impac o HFA in he P esiden s Cup
and unde sco e he impo ance o eam chemis y and leade ship in shaping ou comes in
in e na ional eam-based gol compe i ions.
Key Wo ds: P esiden s Cup, Home-Field Ad an age, Team Pe o mance
1. In oduc ion
“The win is he 10 h s aigh o he Ame ican side and pushes hei all- ime P esiden s
Cup eco d o 13-1-1. I has now been 26 yea s since he In e na ional eam claimed hei lone win
in he e en , and 21 yea s since Team USA did no walk away he ou igh ic o s.” – GOLF.com
(Mel on 2024).
The P esiden s Cup has long been a showcase o eli e gol alen , bu he esul s ha e old
a one-sided s o y. While bo h eams ea u e wo ld-class playe s, he Uni ed S a es has es ablished a
nea -monopoly on success, winning 13 o he 15 con es s since he e en ’s incep ion in 1994. Wi h
en consecu i e ic o ies and only one In e na ional win in nea ly h ee decades, ques ions a ise
abou wha d i es his dominance — and whe he home- ield ad an age alone can explain i .
This s udy ocuses on h ee key a eas o analysis wi hin he P esiden s Cup. Fi s , i
quan i ies he exis ence and magni ude o home- ield ad an age (HFA) and e alua es how much
playing on home soil con ibu es o ma ch ou comes. Second, i de e mines whe he gol e s on Team
USA o In e na ional will play abo e o below hei O icial Wo ld Gol Ranking (OWGR) du ing
he P esiden s Cup. Las , i in es iga es whe he Team USA demons a es a eam-le el pe o mance
ad an age beyond wha would be expec ed om indi idual playe ankings.
1.1 Backg ound Li e a u e
Al hough academic esea ch speci ically ocused on he P esiden s Cup is limi ed, a
ange o s udies examining gol e pe o mance in ela ion o cou se amilia i y and home
ad an age o e aluable con ex .
Sp engel (2022) a gued ha he ypes o gol cou ses playe s g ow up on signi ican ly
in luence how well hey pe o m on di e en s yles o cou ses. Fo example, Eu opean playe s
o en pe o m be e on Eu opean cou ses due o hei amilia i y wi h local condi ions, jus as
Ame ican gol e s end o a e be e on home soil. This idea unde pins Sp engel’s belie in a
dis inc home cou se ad an age in e en s like he Ryde Cup, whe e, a he ime o his s udy, hos
na ions had won 68% o he compe i ions. Th ough a model p edic ing U.S. ic o y p obabili ies
based on a iables like cou se leng h and slope, Sp engel ound ha U.S. eams we e 4.4% mo e
likely o win a home compa ed o playing ab oad. When simpli ying he model o conside only
he loca ion (U.S. o no ), he home ad an age e ec jumped o 34.2%.
Ne ill e al. (1997) examined whe he Eu opean gol e s pe o med be e in hei home
majo ( he Open Championship) compa ed o Ame ican-hos ed majo s. Con olling o wo ld
anking, hey ound no subs an ial di e ence in pe o mance be ween egions. Howe e , he s udy
did unco e ha playe s ecei ing special in i a ions, such as sponso exemp ions, ended o
ou pe o m hei ankings when playing a home, a end mos appa en a he U.S. Open.
Mo e ecen wo k suppo s he impo ance o cou se amilia i y ac oss abili y le els.
O’B ien (2024) showed ha bo h sc a ch gol e s and high-handicap playe s pe o med
signi ican ly wo se on un amilia cou ses, wi h sco ing di e en ials ising by 2–3 s okes.
Simila ly, Hea h (2023), using A ccos sho - acking da a, ound ha playe s on a new cou se we e
subs an ially mo e likely o pos nega i e s okes-gained esul s, wi h 55% losing a leas one
s oke ela i e o hei baseline pe o mance. Ex ending his concep o eli e eam gol , Eh lich e
al. (2025) epo ed ha in he Ryde Cup, home- ield ad an age p oduced a 4.08-poin swing
( om –2.04 o 2.04 poin s) in o e all sco ing di e en ial.
Alongside cou se amilia i y, playe abili y is benchma ked h ough he O icial Wo ld
Gol Ranking (OWGR), which is a globally ecognized sys em used o ank male p o essional
gol e s based on hei pe o mance in eligible ou namen s o e a olling wo-yea pe iod. The
sys em assigns poin s based on ou namen s eng h, inishing posi ion, and ecency o esul s,
wi h he mos ecen pe o mances weigh ed mo e hea ily (OWGR 2025). Each e en has a
"s eng h o ield" a ing ha de e mines he numbe o anking poin s a ailable. Rankings a e
calcula ed using a di iso ha e lec s he numbe o e en s played, wi h a minimum di iso o 40
and a maximum o 52 o balance pa icipa ion wi h pe o mance. Playe s a e hen o de ed by hei
a e age poin s pe e en , p oducing he wo ld anking lis ha is upda ed weekly (Dabbs, 2024).
These ankings play a cen al ole in P esiden s Cup eam selec ion—pa icula ly o
Team In e na ional. The op six eligible In e na ional playe s (ou side Eu ope) quali y based on an
OWGR poin s lis , wi h six cap ain’s picks added. Fo Team USA, six au oma ic quali ie s a e
de e mined by a FedExCup poin s lis accumula ed h ough he BMW Championship, wi h he
emaining six chosen by he cap ain (PGA Tou , 2024).
Figu e 1 p esen s densi y plo s illus a ing he di e ence in pe o mance abili y be ween
au oma ic quali ie s and cap ain’s picks. No ably, he densi y dis ibu ions sugges ha Team
USA’s cap ain’s picks a e oughly as s ong as Team In e na ional’s au oma ic quali ie s.
Figu e 1: Au oma ic Quali ie s e sus Picks
2. Me hodology
To e alua e he p esence o home- ield ad an age (HFA) in he P esiden s Cup, we
compiled da a om Wikipedia, which epo ed bo h he O icial Wo ld Gol Rankings (OWGR) o
each pa icipa ing gol e and he inal eam poin s o als. Summa y s a is ics o he da ase a e
p esen ed in Table 1.
Team abili y was ope a ionalized h ough a measu e we e m wo ld gol abili y, de ined as
he mean o ecip ocal anks (1/ ank) ac oss playe s. This app oach places g ea e weigh on highly
anked gol e s, e lec ing he non-linea na u e o pe o mance in gol . We also compu ed
di e ences in his abili y measu e ac oss eams o cap u e ela i e alen le els.
To examine he e ec s o HFA, eam iden i y, and ela i e abili y, we es ima ed a se ies o
h ee linea models. The gene al speci ica ion is shown as o mula 1.
Poin di e en ial =β0+β1⋅wg_abili y_mean_di e ence+ β2⋅( eam:wg_abili y_mean_di e ence)+β3
⋅ eam + β4⋅home_away +ϵ (1)
Whe e:
● β0 is he in e cep .
● β1, β2, β3, and β4 a e he coe icien s o he espec i e e ms.
● ϵ is he e o e m.
Impo an ly, we did no in e ac eam iden i y wi h home- ield ad an age. In a wo- eam ze o-
sum compe i ion such as he P esiden s Cup, HFA is de ined as a eam’s home sco e minus i s away
sco e; by cons uc ion, i is symme ical be ween he wo eams. Using he gene alized speci ica ion,
we es ima e models ha p edic poin di e en ial, which e lec s he swing in ou comes. Because
he compe i ion is ze o-sum, any gain o x poin s by one eam implies a loss o x poin s by he o he ,
esul ing in a 2x-poin swing in di e en ial. Figu e 2 illus a es his ze o-sum s uc u e.
We es ima e h ee models: (1) a baseline model including HFA and mean wo ld gol abili y,
(2) a model in e ac ing mean wo ld gol abili y wi h eam, and (3) a ully speci ied model ha
inco po a es a eam ixed e ec . Fac o s a e coded wi h Uni ed S a es as he baseline eam and away
as he baseline o home_away.
Table 1: Summa y S a is ics
Va iables
N
Mean
S d. De .
Min
Pc l. 25
Pc l. 75
Max
poin _di e ence
30
0.000
5.837
-11.000
-4.750
4.750
11.000
wg_abili y_mean_di e ence
30
-0.000
0.112
-0.164
-0.098
0.098
0.164
home_away
30
... away
15
50.0%
... home
15
50.0%
eam
30
... Uni ed S a es
15
50.0%
... In e na ional
15
50.0%
Figu e 2: Home Field Ad an age Symme y. In a ze o-sum o ma , each poin gained by one eam
is a wo-poin swing in di e en ial
3. Resul s
In Table 2, we p esen he es ima ed coe icien s om he linea models desc ibed in
Fo mula 1. Gi en he limi ed numbe o e en s, s anda d e o s we e clus e ed on yea bu esul s
should be in e p e ed wi h cau ion. Model 1 se es as he baseline speci ica ion, including wo ld
gol abili y (mean WG Abili y) and home–away ixed e ec s. He e, we ind a s a is ically
signi ican home- ield ad an age di e en ial o 4.84 poin s, co esponding o a 2.42-poin
ad an age pe eam (since he home eam gains 2.42 poin s while he away eam loses 2.42,
p oducing he 4.84-poin swing). The in e cep o −2.42 ep esen s he expec ed poin di e en ial
o he e e ence ca ego y ( he away eam, when abili y di e ence is ze o). This p o ides he
baseline agains which he home–away swing is es ima ed. Model 1 explains oughly 39% o he
a ia ion in poin di e en ial.
Model 2 in oduces an in e ac ion be ween wo ld gol abili y (WG Abili y) mean
di e ence and eam iden i y. This e m is no s a is ically signi ican , wi h a coe icien
indis inguishable om ze o, indica ing ha ela i e eam abili y does no a y sys ema ically by
eam. Like Model 1, Model 2 explains oughly 39% o he a ia ion in poin di e en ial.
Model 3 inco po a es eam ixed e ec s and shows ha he In e na ional eam
unde pe o med ela i e o Team USA by 6.47 poin s, a s a is ically signi ican disad an age. As
explained in he me hodology, we do no in e ac eam iden i y wi h HFA since, by de ini ion in a
wo- eam ze o-sum se ing, HFA is symme ical. In his model, he es ima ed swing in home- ield
ad an age is 4.13 poin s, co esponding o a 2.07-poin pe - eam HFA. The
wg_abili y_mean_di e ence is signi ican in Models 1 and 2 (~25.28), bu i becomes
insigni ican in Model 3 (~2.68, no signi ican ). This decline is expec ed because once a eam
ixed e ec is included, he emaining a ia ion in abili y di e ence doesn’ explain he
di e en ial sco ing condi ional on eam. The in e cep o 1.17 ep esen s he expec ed poin
di e en ial o he e e ence ca ego y (Team USA away, wi h no abili y di e ence), p o iding he
baseline om which he home–away swing and In e na ional eam e ec s a e measu ed. Model 3
explains oughly 52% o he a ia ion in poin di e en ial.
Figu e 3 isualizes hese esul s by showing he ma ginal e ec s o bo h home–away
s a us and eam ixed e ec s om Model 3, highligh ing he join impac o HFA and sys ema ic
eam di e ences.
Table 2: Poin Di e en ial Linea Models using Clus e ed (on yea ) Robus S anda d E o s
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
P edic o s
Es ima es
CI
p
Es ima es
CI
p
Es ima es
CI
p
(In e cep )
-2.42
-4.71 – -0.13
0.04
-2.42
-4.72 – -0.13
0.04
1.17
-1.88 – 4.22
0.44
home away [home]
4.84
0.26 – 9.42
0.04
4.84
0.25 – 9.43
0.04
4.13
0.19 – 8.08
0.04
wg abili y mean
di e ence
25.28
2.07 – 48.48
0.03
25.28
2.03 – 48.52
0.03
2.68
-26.38 – 31.75
0.85
wg abili y mean
di e ence ×
eamIn e na ional
-0.00
-0.00 – 0.00
0.76
eam [In e na ional]
-6.47
-11.62 – -1.32
0.02
Obse a ions
30
30
30
R2 / R2 adjus ed
0.392 / 0.347
0.392 / 0.322
0.520 / 0.464
4. Discussion
4.1 Home Field Ad an age
Ou i s ques ion asked whe he he P esiden s Cup exhibi s a home- ield ad an age.
Model 1 p o ides s ong e idence ha he home eam enjoys a s a is ically signi ican 4.84-poin
swing, equi alen o a 2.42-poin pe - eam edge. This esul aligns wi h p io indings in Ryde Cup
con ex s (Sp engel, 2022), sugges ing ha cou se se up and amilia i y wi h local condi ions
meaning ully enhance eam pe o mance.
4.2 Ame icans Playing Compa ed o Abili y
The second ques ion conside ed whe he gol e s ou pe o m o unde pe o m ela i e o
hei O icial Wo ld Gol Rankings (OWGR). Model 2 shows no signi ican slope di e ence
be ween Team USA and Team In e na ional, implying ha P esiden s Cup ou comes a e no
sys ema ically d i en by playe s ou pe o ming o unde pe o ming hei long- e m abili y
ankings.
4.3 Cohesi e Team Le el Ad an age
Finally, we examined whe he Team USA bene i s om a cohesi e eam-le el ad an age
beyond indi idual abili y. Model 3 e eals ha , a e con olling o HFA and abili y, Team USA
holds a 3.24-poin edge, co esponding o a 6.47-poin swing in di e en ial ela i e o Team
In e na ional. This sugges s ha s uc u al o cul u al ac o s, such as eam chemis y, leade ship,
o amilia i y wi h ma ch-play o ma s, p o ide he Uni ed S a es wi h a pe sis en ad an age.
Figu e 3: LM Team and Home Ma ginal E ec s
5. Conclusion
The goal o his pape was o e alua e compe i i e imbalances in he P esiden s Cup by
analyzing home- ield ad an age (HFA), pe o mance ela i e o abili y, and eam-le el pa i y.
Using h ee linea eg ession models wi h ixed e ec s, we inco po a ed home–away s a us,
di e ences in wo ld gol abili y as measu ed by he O icial Wo ld Gol Ranking (OWGR), and
eam e ec s.
In ou mos con olled model, ou analysis p o ides e idence o a s a is ically signi ican
4.13-poin swing a ibu able o HFA, which co esponds o a 2.07-poin HFA. This inding
suppo s he no ion ha c owd e ec s, cou se se up, and local amilia i y p o ide a meaning ul
edge o he hos eam. When es ing whe he playe s ou pe o m o unde pe o m ela i e o
OWGR, he esul s showed a non-signi ican coe icien nea ze o, indica ing ha ound- o- ound
a iance in gol ou weighs p edic i e abili y a he indi idual le el. Finally, a e con olling o
abili y and HFA, we es ima e a 6.47-poin swing in a o o Team USA, consis en wi h a
sys ema ic eam-le el ad an age. This sugges s ha cohesion, leade ship, and sha ed expe ience
con ibu e o supe io collec i e pe o mance compa ed o Team In e na ional.
Taken oge he , hese esul s highligh wo pe sis en s uc u al ac o s in he P esiden s
Cup: (i) a home- ield swing o nea ly i e poin s, and (ii) a U.S. eam-le el swing exceeding six
poin s ega dless o enue. While he In e na ional eam emains compe i i e, he combina ion o
HFA and cohesion p o ides Team USA wi h a du able ad an age. Fu u e esea ch could explo e
whe he hese dynamics ex end o o he in e na ional compe i ions, such as he Ryde Cup, and
which mechanisms—cou se design, cap aincy s a egy, o eam chemis y—mos s ongly
ein o ce hese e ec s.
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