@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
41
Global Jou nal o Resea ch in Humani ies & Cul u al S udies
ISSN: 2583-2670 (Online)
Volume 05 | Issue 05 | Sep .-Oc . | 2025
Jou nal homepage: h ps://gj publica ion.com/gj hcs/
Resea ch A icle
Impac o Oil P ice Changes on he Nige ian Economy
*Ekwuye, B.M.
Depa men o Finance and Ope a ions Uni , Ch is ian Aid Uni ed Kingdom/DRC 034 Bougain illea, Goma, No d Ki u
Democ a ic Republic o Congo.
Abs ac
The economy o Nige ia majo ly elies on oil, making i an in eg al componen o mee ing he coun y's di e se
equi emen s. Nige ia's signi ican eliance on oil p oduc s engende s a p onounced impac on mac oeconomic
indica o s, including ade openness, in la ion, and he cu ency a e, which a e especially p one o ins abili ies in
he global c ude oil p ice. The objec i e o his s udy is o in es iga e he impac o luc ua ions in wo ldwide c ude
oil p ices on Nige ia's economy, speci ically wi h ega d, o GDP, in la ion, and exchange a es. The s udy
examined, he impac o luc ua ing oil p ices on Nige ian p oduc ion, in la ion, and exchange a es using he
Vec o Au o eg ession (VAR) me hodology. Unlike p e ious esea ch p ojec s ha in es iga ed he ela ionship
be ween oil p ices and. mac oeconomic a iables (suchps exchange a es, p oduc ion, and in la ion) in de eloped
coun ies, he cu en s udy concen a es on Nige ia, a de eloping na ion. This s udy looks in o how changes in
c ude oil p ices a ec Nige ia's ade openness, GDP, in la ion a e, and cu ency a e ela i e o he US dolla .
Using he G ange causali y pa adigm, he s udy a emp s o in es iga e he links be ween changes in oil p ices
and mac oeconomic a iables. De e mining he causal ela ionship be ween changes in oil p ices and hei e ec s
on o he economic a iables, such as GDP-measu ed p oduc ion, in la ion, and cu ency a es, is also c ucial. The
s udy's conclusions showed, a one-way ela ionship in which in la ion is causally in luenced by he p ice o oil.
This shows ha he e may be a link be ween a ia ions in in la ion and oil p ices. This sugges s ha changes in he
p ice o oil could be a good p edic o o changes in he a e o in la ion. The esul s o he causali y analysis lead
o he conclusion ha he e is a one-way ela ionship be ween he exchange a e and he p ice o oil. The
co ela ion shown be ween he exchange a e and he p ice o oil implies ha , a ia ions in he exchange a e a e a
di ec cause o a ia ions in he p ice o oil. I is ound ha he e is a unidi ec ional causal ela ionship be ween
GDP and oil p ice in he causali y analysis. The e is a causal ela ionship be ween GDP and oil p ice in his
ela ionship. This implies ha GDP is he G ange cause o oil p ices and ha he e is a causal ela ionship
be ween GDP and oil p ices. The indings sugges ha he go e nmen main ain adequa e s ockpiles o s o ing oil
a imes when p ices a e gene ally low. Fu he mo e, i is impo an o emembe ha Nige ia is a coun y wi h a
subs an ial posi ion in he oil p oducing indus y. Gi en his, i is impe a i e ha he go e nmen hink abou
inc easing i s capaci y o p oduce oil in o de o inc ease expo s. By doing his, Nige ia migh be able o inc ease
i s GDP while also lessening he nega i e consequences o an un a o able exchange a e.
Keywo ds: Oil, Impac s, P ice, Economy and Sus ainabili y.
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
42
INTRODUCTION
C ude oil has ne e been mo e impo an han i is oday. C ude oil uly came in o i s own in he 20 h cen u y, when i
eclipsed coal as he wo ld's majo ene gy sou ce. (Adeleke, O., Philip, N., & Ha old, N. 2019). The quan i y o oil used
has quad upled o e he las hal -cen u y, and oil and na u al gas now accoun o mo e han 70% o wo ld ene gy
u iliza ion (Sule-Iko, S., & Ib ahim, A. 2021). The shi om coal d oil in he ene gy sec o was la gely d i en by
echnological ad ancemen s. Re ined oil can be used o powe ehicles, homes, and ac o ies, as i has a majo ole in he
wo ld economy (Uche and E iom, 2021).
Those who belie e ha a na ion's GDP will inc ease due o a ise in oil p ices a gue ha he go e nmen will be able o
gene a e mo e e enue om oil expo s. Alenoghena (2020) based i s a gumen s on da a om na ions ha a e ne oil
impo e s. The e is signi ican in la ion, li le demand o goods o he han oil, high inpu cos s, and low in es men in
hese na ions. Ye , he dec ease in oil p ices has caused economic ha oc on coun ies ha a e ne expo e s o c ude oil.
(Which educes na ional income and inc eases budge de ici s). This has caused c ude oil p ices o luc ua e widely as
supply and demand shi ed. Al hough he impac o luc ua ing c ude oil p ices on GDP g ow h has been he subjec o
much deba e, economis s and policymake s ha e ye o each a consensus on he opic. While esea ch by Uche and
E iom (2021) sugges s i may p omo e g ow h, esea ch by Soyemi, A., Akingunola, O., & Ogebc, J. (2019)'-sugges i
may inhibi de elopmen .
Nea ly 90% o Nige ia's expo income, 80% o he go e nmen 's annual budge , and 14% o he coun y's o al income
come om selling c ude oil (GNI). Be o e ecen ly, oil was no Nige ia's main sou ce o income (Alenoghena, 2020).
Ins ead, he coun y has always elied on ag icul u al expo s o keep i s economy going. Be ween 1960 and 1966, mo e
han 90% o he popula ion wo ked in ag icul u e, which was he main sou ce o income o he coun y. Bu due o he
oil boom in he 1970s, mining and, especially, oil became mo e impo an han ag icul u e (Sanusi e al. 2022). This pu s
ag icul u e in he backg ound. Nige ia's GDP in 1970 was mos ly suppo ed by oil p o i s (a ound 59%). As a esul , oil
p ices, e en i hey luc ua ed li le, would ha e a signi ican e ec on he economy (Uma & Abdulkhakeem, 2010). Ye ,
i is essen ial o look a how hese changes migh in luence Nige ia's economy owing o he ola ili y o c ude oil p ices.
The oil sec o , a key d i e o GDP g ow h, wi nessed a majo con ac ion in 2016 wi h a decline o -13.65%, exceeding
he -5.45% decline in 2015. This esul ed in a decline in he oil sec o ’s sha e o eal GDP om 9.61% in 2015 o 8.42%
in 2016 (The Na ional Bu eau o S a is ics (NBS) in Q4 2016). Aside i s impac on he g ow h, he sec o also enhances
mone a y a iables and con ibu es o a high unemploymen a e, as opined by Blancha d and Gali (2007). Acco ding o
Adedokun (2018), ci ing Nweze and Edame (2016) and in o ma ion om he Cen al Bank o Nige ia (CBN) in 2019,
app oxima ely 75% o go e nmen income and an a e age o 93% o o eign ea nings om ade was gene a ed om oil
expo s o e he pas decade. These income sou ces ha e played a key ole in inancing he coun y's impo s.
A coun y's exposu e o oil p ice luc ua ions depends on wo ac o s; he na u e o i s economy and he le el o he p ice
swings. Nige ia's economy is based on only wo hings: selling c ude oil and buying e ined oil. Because o his, i is
di icul o say how changes in oil p ices a ec Nige ia's GDP (O iakhi and Osaze, 2013).
Recen empi ical and heo e ical s udies by Rai u and Osho a (2022) ha e shown ha he e is p ice ola ili y in he global
oil ma ke . The e ec s o his ola ili y on he economies o di e en coun ies will depend on how much hey depend on
oil. Nige ia is he se en h-la ges expo e o p ocessed oil in he wo ld. This makes up abou 90% o he coun y's o al
expo income and mo e han 70% o he go e nmen 's annual budge . Examining how his unce ain y may a ec
Nige ia's economic g ow h is, he e o e, essen ial. Many people hink ha he changing p ice o oil has caused inancial
c ises and he all o go e nmen s a ound he wo ld. Majumda (2016) says ha shocks o oil demand and supply caused
by inancial c ises, he disco e y o new esou ces, geopoli ical e en s, and inno a ions o en show how ola ile oil
p ices a e. In he pas ew yea s, all o hese ac o s ha e wo ked oge he o cause oil p ices o luc ua e wildly, which
has hu economies and led o he down all o go e nmen s in some coun ies.
S a emen o he P oblem
The e ec o oil p ice changes on he mos impo an mac oeconomic a iable is a ely looked a . Oil being a majo
d i e o he Nige ian economy does no ha e a s able p ice. The e a e conce ns ha he in e mi en changes in he oil
p ice ha e Impac s on he economic g ow h in Nige ia. Se e al esea che s ha e s udied he in e mi en changes in oil
p ices bu e y ew ha e explo ed how he luc ua ions in oil p ices ha e a ec ed Nige ia's economic g ow h. This
esea ch will examine he ma e by picking he mos app op ia e es ima ing app oach and o e ing a clea s anda d o
de e mining he op imal lag pe iod.
Oil p ices and GDP g ow h ha e been he subjec o s udy and deba e o he be e pa o he las ou decades. The
connec ion be ween oil p ices and economic cycles as well as he impo ance o oil o global ade we e he d i ing
o ces behind his esea ch. The oil indus y's ou sized con ibu ion o Nige ia's GDP gi es i undue sway in he coun y's
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
43
policies. 82.1%, 83.1%, and a ound 90% o he coun y's o eign cu ency ea nings in 1974 came om oil p o i s,
acco ding o he CBN s a is ics epo (2011). A compa able p opo ion (87.6%) o Nige ia's o e all expo p o i s o
US$70,579,000,000 in 2010 came om he sale o pe oleum p oduc s.
Salisu and Fasanya (2013) and Aime (2016) makes i clea ha oil p ice ins abili y has a majo impac on he
mac oeconomic pe o mance o many coun ies. Se e al s udies ha e shown e idence o asymme y in he ola ili y o
oil p ices ia he use o clus e ing echniques.
Nige ia's adminis a ion is conce ned abou he impac o p ice a ia ions on he mac oeconomic s abili y o he coun y
due o i s eliance on oil money. Mac oeconomic a iables' sensi i i y o shi s in he economy is e e ed o as hei
ola ili y. Among he many mac oeconomic measu es ha a e bo h shock- esis an and agile a e he GDP, in la ion,
cu ency a e, and in e es a e. The impac o luc ua ions in oil p ices on c i ical economic indica o s in Nige ia has
been he subjec o nume ous s udies. The e ec o oil p ices on GDP is a ho ly deba ed subjec , wi h di e en
esea che s p esen ing di e ing conclusions. Among hem a e Ape e & Ijiomah (2013), Wilson (Da id, Inyiama, &
Bea ice, 2014), Abayomi, & Damila e (5012), Taiwo, and Adeniyi (2011).
Nige ia has seen he implica ions o he con inuing educ ion in global c ude oil p ices since July 2014. The mos ob ious
signs o his a e he decline in he coun y's o eign ese es, cu ency p oblems, go e nmen income, and he possibili y
o de aul ing on deb paymen s when hey come due. F om a peak o USD105.87 in 2013 o a low o USD40.76 in 2016
(Wo ld Bank, 2015), oil p ices ha e plumme ed om hei all- ime high. The p ice o oil ell by a s agge ing 64.5%
be ween 2013 and 2016. As a esul , we may conclude ha he e will be a lood o new ules and egula ions om policy
make s, wi h subs an ial discussion among economis s abou which ules and egula ions should be implemen ed.
In eac ion o he d op in global oil p ices, dwindling o eign exchange ese es, and economic slowdown ha began in
2015, he Nige ian go e nmen dep ecia ed he nai a ( he coun y's o icial cu ency) by 8% in Oc obe 2015, om N155
o N168. Since Oc obe 2015, when i was N168, he o icial Nige ian nai a exchange a e has allen o N485 in 2023.
Nige ia's in la ion has con inued o sky ocke since 2014. A combina ion o a weak nai a ollowing de alua ion and
inc eased cos s ac oss he boa d (including housing, ood, nonalcoholic d inks, and anspo a ion) led o he highes
in la ion a e since 2005.
Fuel p ice inc ease o o e 100% esul ed om he aking away o inancial assis ance in he downs eam oil sec o has
wo sened he p oblem. The go e nmen has cu i s ope a ions and adminis a i e cos s, and he economy has mig a ed
away om some o i s p e iously p o i able indus ies as a consequence o hese policy p oposals. This emphasizes he
need o s udy how changes in oil p ices a ec Nige ia's economy. Some s udies ha e been unde aken in Nige ia on he
in luence o a ia ions in he p ice o c ude oil on economic g ow h, esul s and in e ences also a y. Ape e and Ijeoma
(2013), Akin and Babajide (2011), Ani, Ugwun a, Oli e and Eneje (2014) a e a ew o hem.
Al hough indings by Ani, Ugwun a, Oli e , and Eneje (2014), Akin and Babajide (2011), Ape e and Ijeoma (2013),
Asaolu and Ho (2012), and Gunu (2010), O iakhi and Iyoha (2013), and Edesi i (2014) show a signi ican and posi i e
impac , e eal a de imen al e ec o pu i ano he way, he e isn' a lo o ag eemen among academics on how changing
c ude oil p ices a ec bo h es ablished and eme ging economies, which comp ises Nige ia. To he bes o ou knowledge,
ma ke capi aliza ion, one o Nige ia's impo an economic sec o s, has no been quan i ied in ea lie esea ch. To suppo
he di e se pe spec i es aken in pas esea ch, his s udy will employ mo e cu en and esh da a as well as a a ie y o
economic expansion indices. To he bes o my knowledge, no p io esea ch has assessed se e al c ucial economic
indica o s in Nige ia, hence his esea ch will concen a e on he economic clima e in Nige ia while e alua ing hese
me ics.
Resea ch Objec i es
This esea ch wo k in ends o e alua e he causal associa ion p e alen in he c ude oil p ice mo emen and selec ed
Mic o Economic a iable in Nige ia.
To achie e his aim, he ollowing speci ic objec i es we e achie ed o:
1. Assess he e ec o oil p ice changes on in la ion a e in Nige ia.
2. Asce ain he e ec s o oil p ice changes on exchange a e in Nige ia.
3. De e mine he e ec s o oil p ice changes on he g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) in Nige ia.
Resea ch Hypo heses
The ollowing a e hypo heses ha can help ge us close o ou objec i es:
Hoi: Changes in Oil p ice does no ha e any signi ican e ec on in la ion a e in Nige ia.
H02: Changes in Oil p ice does no ha e any signi ican Impac on exchange a e in Nige ia.
H03: Changes in Oil p ice does no ha e any signi ican e ec on G oss domes ic p oduc in Nige ia.
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
44
Resea ch Me hodology
Based on he mos app op ia e esea ch design—ex pos ac o— his s udy is a discou se on documen ed ou comes wi h
he goal o making indings and in e ences. Ex pos ac o design, some imes e e ed o as "a e - he- ac " esea ch, is a
ype o s udy design in which he e ec s o an independen a iable (i.e., g oups possessing pa icula a ibu es ha
exis ed be o e he in es iga ion) on a dependen a iable a e examined. Because he indi iduals a e no assigned a
andom, bu a he a e g ouped based on a ce ain a ibu e o ai , i is conside ed a quasi-expe imen . These esea ch
designs we e chosen because his is an a e - he- ac esea ch and he u ilized a iables a e hose ha he esea che
canno con ol, (Onwume e, 2019).
Na u e and Sou ce o Da a
The CBN s a is ical bulle in se ed as he sou ce o he da a se o his esea ch. They a e p e-exis ing da a ha has been
ga he ed by se e al esea che and schola s o he han he esea che and is easily accessible om o he sou ces, hey a e
p ima ily seconda y in na u e. Al hough necessa y o he cu en s udy, seconda y da a a e hose ha we e o iginally
ga he ed o a di e en in es iga ion (Onwume e, 2019). The Wo ld De elopmen Indica o s (WDI), he Nige ia Bu eau
o S a is ics (NBS), he Cen al Bank o Nige ia (CBN) S a is ical Bulle in, and o he da a a chi es and eposi o ies a e
common places o ge seconda y da a. The Cen al Bank o Nige ia (CBN) s a is ical bulle in 2021 p o ided he da a o
his s udy. They a e a anged acco ding o a na u al equency, and a e ega ded as ime se ies s a is ics and a e ully
quan i a i e. (B ooks, 2014).
Model Speci ica ion
The heo y ha sui ably unde pin his wo k is he symme ical and linea heo y o ela ionships. Acco ding o his
heo y, Changes in oil p ices esul in unp edic able g ow hs o he economy. As ad oca ed by Cha eddine and Ba ka
(2020) as well as Ojiku u e ah, (2017).
The esea ch wo k model was a modi ied e sion o Ayadi (2005) wo k. The e ec s oil p ices on Nige ia economy was
he i le o he s udy ha he esea che conduc ed. The Vec o analysis eg ession me hod was employed by he
esea che . The model was modi ied o i o mee he na u e o he esea ch endea o in o de o asce ain he e ec s o
changes in oil p ices on he Nige ian economy, whe e he mone a y policy a e (MPR) is employed as a p oxy. This s udy
used he Au o eg essi e Dis ibu ed Lag Model (ARDL) es ima e echnique, which is desc ibed as ollows:
Gene al Model
Whe e:
R01LP Rep esen s he independen a iable
INF Rep esen s he independen a iable (In la ion a e), whe e i is he a iable ha explains o he a iables.
EXR Rep esen s he independen a iable (Exchange a e).
GDP Rep esen s he independen a iable (G oss domes ic p oduc ).
MPR Rep esen s he con ol a iable.
𝛽0 Rep esen s he cons an o he in e cep .
𝛽1 – 𝛽5 Rep esen s he coe icien o he long un pa ame e s
P1 – P4 Rep esen s he coe icien o he long un pa ame e s.
– n Rep esen s ime se ies da a
ε Rep esen s he esidual, noise o e o e m.
= 1
Rep esen s he sho un eg ession equa ion
Σ
n
k
Δ
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
45
To es he indi idual hypo hesis, hey we e lis ed and all he p oxies and pa ame e s p ope ly elabo a ed.
Hypo hesis 1: Oil p ice changes does no ha e any signi ican e ec on in la ion a e in Nige ia.
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
46
GDP Rep esen s he Dependen Va iable (G oss Domes ic P oduc )
M P R Rep esen s he con ol a iable.
P3 Rep esen s he coe icien o he long un pa ame e .
ε Rep esen s he esidual, noise o e o e m.
Desc ip ion o Model Va iables
A b ie desc ip ion o he a iables o his s udy was gi en in able 1 below.
Table_1: Desc ip ion o Model Va iables
S/N
Va iable
name
Type
No a ion
Sou ce
Rema k
1
Oil P ice
Mo emen
Dependen
ROILP
CBN
S a is ical
bulle in
(2021)
The de ini ion o eal oil p ices is he dolla p ice ha
has been adjus ed o in la ion.
2
In la ion
a e
Independen
INF
CBN
S a is ical
bulle in
(2021)
The Wholesale P ice Index (WPI) alue a ies as a
pe cen age om yea o yea .
3
Real
E ec i e
Exchange
Ra e,
Independen
EXR
CBN
S a is ical
bulle in
(2021)
A measu e o a cu ency’s alue agains he alue o
se e al 1 o eign cu encies.
4
G oss
domes ic
p oduc
Independen
GDP
CBN
S a is ical
bulle in
(2021)
he p opo ion o impo s and expo s o GDP.
5
Mone a y
policy a e
Con ol
MPR
CBN
S a is ical
bulle in
(2021)
MPR is a mone a y ins umen which is used by he
CBN o achie e mone a y objec i es by inc easing o
educing he MPR o p ice s abili y
Sou ce: Compiled by he au ho
Techniques o da a analysis
The basic s eps ollowed we e:
P e Es ima ion Tes s (PRE-TEST)
In his s udy, he P e Es ima ion Tes (PRE-TEST) con ains he ollowing:
1. Basic desc ip i e s a is ics: This includes measu es such as measu es o agg ega i e endencies, measu e o
dispe sion, symme ical p ope ies o he se ies and measu e o he deg ee o peakness o he dis ibu ion. I is
well known ha desc ip i e s a is ics can be used o de e mine he sp ead and agg ega i e endencies o he
se ies.
2. Table, g aphs and Cha s: we e used o depic he a iables in ows and columns. The a iables we e
g aphed o display hei beha io al pa e n.
3. Co ela ional ma ix: I is a able ha displays co ela ion ac o s be ween di e en a iables. The able's
cells each display he co ela ion be ween wo a iables. Da a a e summa ized using co ela ion ma ices, which
a e also u ilized as inpu s o mo e sophis ica ed s udies and as diagnos ics o such analyses.
4. Uni oo es : This de e mines whe he a ime se ies a iable has a uni oo and is non-s a iona y. The p e
Es ima ion es (PRE-TEST) is gene ally used o es how good you da a is o he es ima ion es he esea che
wan s o do. Also, he s a iona i y es (Uni oo es ) was used o in o m he choice o he ARDL model, and
he P e Es ima ion Tes o e s he necessa y guidance o choosing he bes model.
Es ima ion me hod
The model o be employed in his s udy is Au o Reg essi e Dis ibu ed Lag model (ARDL). I is p e e ed o O dina y
Leas Squa e (OLS) model because OLS has many sho comings and is becoming old ashioned. This is because many
economic a iables now a e ei he I (0) o I (1) a iable and OLS canno be employed o a iable ha has he
combina ion o he wo o de s o in eg a ion. OLS model, o en imes has diagnos ics p oblem such as au o co ela ion.
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
47
ARDL popula ized by Pesa an, Shin and Schmid (2001) o e come hese sho comings and is a pe ec moclel o his
s udy. This is because i has he ollowing ad an ages o e OLS model acco ding o (Pesa an and Shin, 1998):
a) I sol es diagnos ic issues like au oco ela ion.
b) Despi e he iny sample size, i is s ill eliable.
c) I o e s he abili y o hold a iables wi h a ious in eg a ion o de s, such as 1(0), 1(1), o a combina ion o bo h.
d) I can use a ious lag leng hs o bo h he eg esso and he eg essand.
e) I concu en ly p edic s elas ici y in he long and sho uns.
Pos Es ima ion me hods
The pos es ima ion es is done o de e mine he eliabili y o he esul . The ollowing pos es ima ion es was used o
de e mine whe he he model is he bes , linea , and unbiased:
1. Tes o Signi icance o he esul
2. Tes o au o co ela ion conduc ed using B eusch-God ey Lang ange Mul iplie es (BG LM).
3. Tes o he e oscedas ic esiduals conduc ed ollowing he B eusch, Pegan and God ey es (BPG).
4. Tes o model s abili y conduc ed by adop ing Ramsey RESET and CUSUM es .
In e ences
The s a is ical es ima ion ool used in his s udy is E iews 10. The ool is a compu e applica ion so wa e used by he
au ho in o de o de elop and pe o m analy ical p ocesses ha helped in making an in o med s a is ical decision. The
decision ule in his s udy is based on 5% deg ee o signi icance and conclusions we e d awn based on his decision ule.
Resul s and Discussion
Da a p esen a ion
Tabula p esen a ion o he da a
Table 2 below comp ises o he p oxies o he a iables used in his s udy. The ime ame o co e age is 1981-2021.
Based on he da ase as i was p esen ed, es ima es om his s udy we e made.
Table 2: Values o Oil P ice, In la ion, Exchange a e, G oss domes ic p oduc and Mone a y policy
a e in Nige ia.
Yea
ROILP(N’Bn)
INF (%)
EXR((N)
GDP(N’Bn)
MPR (%)
1981
8.6
20.81
0.61
2,188
10
1982
7.8
7.7
0.673
1,845
10
1983
7.3
23.21
0.724
1,224
10
1984
8.3
17.82
0.765
903
10
1985
10.9
7.44
0.894
882
10
1986
8.1
5.72
2.02
639
10
1987
19.0
11.29
4.02
598
12.75
1988
19.8
54.51
4.54
550
12.75
1989
39.1
50.47
7.39
474
18.5
1990
71.9
7.36
8.04
568
18.5
1991
82.7
13.01
9.91
503
15.5
1992
164.1
44.59
17.3
434.89
17.5
1993
162.1
57.17
22.33
603.44
26
1994
160.2
57.03
21.89
849.02
13.5
1995
324.5
72.84
21.89
1488.12
13.5
1996
408.8
29.27
21.89
1961.31
13.5
1997
416.8
8.53
21.89
2120.98
13.5
1998
324.3
10
21.89
2306.48
13.5
1999
724.4
6.62
21.89
2631.53
18
2000
1,591.7
6.93
85.98
3390. 2
14
2001
1,707.6
18.87
106
3952.56
20.5
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
48
Table_2.1: Value o Oil P ice, In la ion, Exchange a e, G oss domes ic p oduc and Mone a y policy
a e in Nige ia. Con inued
2002
1,230.9
12.88
113
5520.7
16.5
2003
2,074.3
14.03
127
6507.35
15
2004
3,354.8
15
130
8699.55
15
2005
4,762.4
17.86
136
11098.5
13
2006
5,287.6
8.23
131.8
14580.1
10
2007
4,462.9
5.39
125
16644.5
9.5
2008
6,530.6
11.58
120
19178
9.75
2009
3,191.9
12.56
171
20861.5
6
2010
5,396.1
13.72
154.8
26625.3
6.25
2011
8,879.0
10.84
165.1
30582.4
12
2012
8,026.0
12.22
162.9
34847.8
12
2013
6,809.2
8.48
199
38884.8
12
2014
6,793.8
8.06
199
43265.8
13
2015
3,830.1
9.01
300
45685.3
11
2016
2,693.9
15.68
320
49236.2
14
2017
4,109.8
16.52
360
55151.6
14
2018
5,545.8
12.09
360
61961.7
14
2019
5,536.7
11.4
305
69906.8
13.5
2020
4,732.5
13.2
361
, 74041.1
11.5
2021
3,650
16.95
445.47
84516.2
1,1.5 '
Sou ce: CBN S a is ical bulle in
Whe e:
ROILP = Real oil p ice mo emen
INF = In la ion a e
EXR = Exchange a e
GDP = G oss Domes ic P oduc
MPR = Mone a y Policy a e
The se ies was log ans o med o equalize he bases o he alues. A log ans o med se ies is an excellen indica o o
elas ici y and ul ima ely, i makes comp ehension easie . Below is he ans o med able o he se ies:
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
49
Table_3: T ans o med se ies o Oil p ice changes and in la ion, exchange a e and g oss domes ic
p oduc .
YEAR
LROILP
LINF
LEXR
LGDP
1981
2.147
3.035
-0.494
7.690
1982
2.056
2.041
-0.396
7.520
1983
1.981
3.144
-0.322
7.109
1984
2.112
2.880
-0.267
6.805
1985
2.390
2.006
-0.112
6.782
1986
2.092
1.743
0.703
6.459
1987
2.945
2.423
1.391
6.393
1988
2.982
3.998
1.512
6.309
1989
3.666
3.921
2.000
6.161
1990
4.275
1.996
2.084
6.342
1991
4.414
2.565
2.293
6.220
1992
5.100
3.797
2.850
6.075
1993
5.088
4.046
3.105
6.402
1994
5.076
4.043
3.086
6.744
1995
5.782
4.288
3.086
7.305
1996
6.013
3.376
3.086
7.581
1997
6.032
2.143
3.086
7.659
1998
5.781
2.302
, 3.086
7.743
1999
6.585
1.890
3.086
7.875
2000
7.372
1.935
4.454
8.128
2001
7.442
2.937
4.663
8.282
2002
7.115
2.555
4.727
8.616
2003
7.637
2.641
4.844
8.780
2004
8.118
2.708
4.867
9.071
2005
8.468
2.882
4.912
9.314
2006
8.573
2.107
4.881
9.587
2007
8.403
1.684
4.828
9.719
2008
8.784
2.449
4.787
9.861
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
56
Hypo hesis Th ee
The long un es ima es a e used o es he hypo hesis.
Res a emen o he hypo hesis in null and al e na e o m
Ho: Oil p ice changes do no ha e any signi ican e ec on G oss domes ic p oduc in Nige ia.
Hi: Oil p ice changes ha e a signi ican e ec on G oss domes ic p oduc in Nige ia.
Decision ule: Rejec Ho i p- alue < 0.05, o he wise do no ejec Ho
Decision: The null hypo hesis is ejec ed and he al e na e hypo hesis is accep ed as a esul o he G oss Domes ic
P oduc in Panel B o Table 4.7 ha ing a signi ican p- alue o less han 0.05 (0.03). This leads o he conclusion ha
a ia ions in oil p ices ha e a no able e ec on Nige ia's GDP.
4.3 Discussion o Resul s
In line wi h he goals o he s udy and in answe o he esea ch ques ions, he esul s summa y, which is displayed in
able 4.6, is discussed.
Table 4.6: Summa y o indings
Table 4.6.1: Summa y o inding (Objec i e One)
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
57
Objec i e One: To assess he e ec o oil p ice changes on in la ion a e in Nige ia
Examining his goal and es ing he hypo hesis wi h an Au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag model, he esul s show ha
luc ua ions in oil p ices ha e a long- and sho - e m posi i e and signi ican impac on Nige ia's in la ion a e. This
sugges s ha a uni shi in he p ice o oil would esul in inc eases o 19% and 15%, espec i ely, in he medium and
long e ms. The coun y's subs an ial eliance on oil expo s may be he cause o his impo an e ec . As a esul , ising
oil p ices d i e up he cos s o p oduc ion, se ices, and anspo a ion, which d i es up he cos o goods and se ices
(in la ion). Again, an inc ease in he p ice o oil would lead o an inc ease in he cos o impo ed which u he d i es
in la ion highe .
The ou come is in line wi h he esea ch done by Olomola (2006), who used ec o analy ic eg ession o examine he
e ec s o an oil p ice shock on he Nige ian economy. The indings indica ed ha while he e is no impac on ou pu , he
p ice o oil has a la ge han expec ed e ec on he a e o in la ion.
Table 4.6.1: Summa y o Finding (Objec i e Two)
Objec i e Two: To asce ain he impac o oil p ice changes on exchange a e in Nige ia.
Acco ding o his goal and he esul s o es ing he hypo hesis using he ARDL model, changes in oil p ices ha e a long-
and sho - e m posi i e and conside able impac on Nige ia's exchange a e. Based on his in luence, an inc ease in oil
p ices o one uni would esul in a 43% sho - e m inc ease and a 33% long- e m inc ease in he exchange a e. This
migh be because he majo i y o he oil is expo ed, which means ha he na ion depends hea ily on he o eign
exchange p o i s om he selling o oil. I he p ice o oil inc eases, he coun y’s o eign exchange ea nings inc eases
leading o a s onge cu ency which implies ha he alue o he nai a inc eases agains o he cu encies. Again, when
he e is a dec ease in oil p ice, he o eign exchange ea nings dec eases leading o a weake cu ency.
The inding is in consonance wi h he esul o Ayadi (2005) who ca ied ou a esea ch wo k o asce ain how changes in
oil p ices a ec ed Nige ia's economy using he ec o au o eg ession me hod. The esul e eals ha luc ua ions in oil
p ices a e a ec s he exchange a e, which in u n in luences indus ial ac i i ies.
Table 4.6.1: Summa y o Finding (Objec i e Th ee)
MODEL 3 (1, 3, 0)
Va iabl
es
Sho Run Es ima e
Long Run Es ima e
Coe icien
P.
alue
Conclusion
Coe icien
P.
alue
Conclusion
LGDP
0.43
0.03
Posi i e
and
signi ican
0.68
0.03
Posi i e and
Insigni ican
Sou ce: Compu ed by he au ho using E iews
Objec i e Th ee: To de e mine he impac o oil p ice changes on he g oss domes ic p oduc
(GDP) in Nige ia
Acco ding o his goal and he esul s o he hypo hesis es using he Au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag model, changes in oil
p ices ha e a no ewo hy and bene icial e ec on he g oss domes ic p oduc . I ollows ha a uni change in he p ice o
oil causes a sho - e m GDP gain o 43% and a long- e m GDP ise o 68%. This is because he e is a di ec co ela ion
be ween Nige ia's GDP and changes in oil p ices. The g oss domes ic p oduc g ows in esponse o ising oil p ices, and
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
58
his expansion spu s economic g ow h and de elopmen . On he o he hand, should he p ice o oil decline, he GDP will
also decline due o a d op in oil expo e enue. This dec ease in he GDP leads o economic con ac ion and ecession.
This inding is in line wi h he indings o Ahuja (2010) who opines ha he disco e y o oil has led o an inc ease in
a ailable jobs h oughou he na ion. Because o he p oli e a ion o oil companies in he coun y, he oil business
p o ides wo k o ens o housands o Nige ians which has boos ed he g oss domes ic p oduc o he coun y.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summa y o Findings
The indings a ising om his s udy a e summa ized as ollows:
1. Oil p ice changes has a posi i e and signi ican e ec on he In la ion a e. (Coe icien =0.15, p- alue = 0.00)
2. Oil p ice changes has a posi i e and signi ican e ec on he exchange a e. (Coe icien =0.33, p- alue = 0.00)
3. Oil p ice changes has a posi i e and signi ican e ec on he G oss domes ic p oduc , (coe icien = 0.68, p- alue =
0.03)
Conclusion
The e is sca ce li e a u e on impac o oil p ice changes on he Nige ian economy. Mos s udies e iewed concen a ed on
he e ec o oil shock on he Nige ian economy which spa ked he mo i a ion o his esea ch wo k. The da a se co e s
he yea s 1981 h ough 2021 and was sou ced om he 2021 CBN s a is ical bulle in.
Some no ewo hy indings we e ound when e alua ing he e ec s o changes in oil p ices on he Nige ian economy
using he ARDL es ima ing me hod and he es o he e oscedas ici y based on he B eusch-pagan-God ey (BPG) es .
Acco ding o he esea ch, he in la ion a e is posi i ely and signi ican ly impac ed by luc ua ions in he p ice o oil.
Once mo e, he ou come demons a ed ha luc ua ions in he p ice o oil ha e a posi i e and subs an ial e ec on he
exchange a e. Addi ionally, i shows ' ha he GDP is posi i ely and signi ican ly impac ed by luc ua ions in he p ice o
oil.
Based on hese esul s, he s udy p oposes ha di e si ying he economy in o o he a eas in o de o lessen he deg ee o
eliance on oil e enue could help o alle ia e he impac o changes in oil p ices. Addi ionally, he esea ch suppo s he
idea ha a s able exchange a e can be u ilized o mi iga e he e ec s o luc ua ions in oil p ices. The cen al bank can
achie e his s able exchange a e by implemen ing mechanisms like a ixed exchange a e sys em, which would aid in
main aining a pa icula exchange a e. Las ly, he esea ch indica es ha inc easing o eign ese es will, be c ucial o
he economy in o de o mi iga e he impac o luc ua ions in he p ice o oil on he economy. I also ecommends
b oadening he economy o include manu ac u ing and ag icul u e in o de o p o ec i om changes in he p ice o oil.
Recommenda ions
1. The esea ch ecommends ha policy make s should apply p uden iscal managemen especially when oil p ices a e
high. The use o he iscal policy op ion would help o educe go e nmen expendi u e in pe iods o high oil p ice.
Addi ionally, i ecommends ha he cen al bank can pu in place mone a y policies which would manage he
supply o money and pu in la ion unde con ol.
2. The esea ch ad ises ha main aining a s able exchange a e would be o g ea essence o economic p edic abili y
and g ow h. Al hough he e a e many bene i s o a s able exchange a e, he esea ch ecommends a lexible
exchange a e sys em ha will allow he exchange a e o adjus o ma ke o ces, which can help he economy o
adap o ex e nal shocks such as oil p ice changes.
3. Finally, he esea ch ecommends he implemen a ion o policies which will educe he eliance o he economy on
oil by di e si ying he economy and in es ing in in as uc u e such as ene gy, anspo a ion, and
elecommunica ion. Addi ionally, policy make s can pu in place measu es such as subsidies and ax incen i es o
suppo he de elopmen o o he sec o s and educe he impac o oil p ice luc ua ions on he g oss domes ic
p oduc .
REFERENCES
1. Abiola, A. G. (2005). Fiscal Indiscipline, O icial Co up ion and Economic G ow h in Nige ia: An Examina ion o
Possible Nexus. Mo is ille: S.T. Lulu P ess.
2. Adamu, A. (2015). The Impac o Global Fall in Oil P ices on he Nige ian C ude Oil Re enue and I s P ices. Dubai:
The Second Middle Eas Con e ence on Global Business, Economics, Finance and Banking.
3. Adegboyega, T. (2006). Re o ms: OBJ’s Sanc imonious Se mon. The Na ion.
4. Adeleke, O., Philip, N., & Ha old, N. (2019). Mone a y T ansmission Channel, Oil P ice Shock and The
Manu ac u ing Sec o in Nige ia. AN Folia Oeconomica S e inensia, (19) 1,
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
59
5. Adenuga, A. O., Hilili, M. J., & E buomwan, O. O. (2012). Oil P ice Pass-Th ough in o In la ion: Empi ical
E idence om Nige ia. Cen al Bank o Nige ia Economic and Financial Re iew, 50(1), 1-26.
6. Adubi, A. A. (2002). Plan-budge Link in Nige ia: An Explo a o y In es iga ion. NCEMA Policy Analysis Se ies,
8(2), 1-17.
7. Agya A, Samuel A, and Amadi W. (2022) Shocks and ola ili y ansmission be ween oil p ice and Nige ia's
exchange a e. SN Bus Econ.;2(6):47.
8. Ahmed, A., Basha , N. and Wadud, I. (2012). The T ansi o y and Pe manen Vola ili y o Oil P ices: Wha
Implica ions a e he e o he US Indus ial P oduc ion? Applied Ene gy, 92(1):447^455.
9. Ahuja, O (2010). Mac oeconomic Theo y and Policy, Six een h Edi ion, New Delhi; S. Chand & Company L d.
10. Akin, I., and Babajide, F. (2011). Impac o oil p ice shocks on selec ed mac oeconomic a iables in Nige ia.
In e na ional Else ie Science and Ene gy policy, 39(2), 603-612.
11. Aki oby, B., & Cinyabuguma, M. (2004). Sou ces o G ow h in he Democ a ic Republic o Congo: A Co-
in eg a ion App oach. IMF Wo king Pape , 04(114), 1-31.
12. Akpan, E. O. (2009). Oil P ice Shock and Nige ia’s Mac oeconomy. Jou nal o Economics, 4(2), 12-19.
13. Akpan, O. (2012) Oil p ice shocks and Nige ia’s mac oeconomy. In e na ional Jou nal o Finance and Economics,
4(10), 1-25.
14. Alenoghena, R. (2020). Oil P ice Shocks and Mac oeconomic Pe o mance o he Nige ian Economy: A S uc u al
VAR App oach, Fac a Uni e si a is, Se ies: Economics and O ganisa ion, 17(4), 299-316.
15. Alenoghena, R., & Aghughu, A. (2022). Oil P ices and Economic Ac i i y in Nige ia: An Asymme ic Coin eg a ion
and Th eshold Analysis, Ac a Uni e si a is Danubius (Economica, 18(1).
16. Alley, I., Asekomeh, A., Mobolaji, H., & Adeni an, Y. A. (2014). Oil P ice Shocks and Nige ian Economic G ow h.
Eu opean Scien i ic Jou nal, 10(19), 375-391.
17. Al-Risheq, S. (2016). The impac o oil p ice on indus ial p oduc ion in de eloping coun ies. Majo pape
p esen ed o he Depa men o Economics, Uni e si y o O awa in pa ial ul illmen o he equi emen s o he
awa d o M.A. Deg ee.
18. Ani, W., Ugwun a, D., Oli e , I. and Eneje, B. (2014). Oil p ice ola ili y and economic de elopmen : S ylized
e idence in Nige ia. Jou nal o Economics and In e na ional Finance, 6(6), 125-133.
19. Ape e, O. T., and Ijeoma, A. M. (2013). Mac oeconomic impac o oil p ice le els and ola ili y in Nige ia.
In e na ional Jou nal o Academic Resou ce, Economic and Managemen Sciences, 2(4), 15-25.
20. A egbeyen, O., & Kolawole, O. (2015). Oil Re enue, Public Spending and Economic G ow h Rela ionships in
Nige ia. Jou nal o Sus ainable De elopmen , 8, 113- 123.
21. A inze, E. (2011). The impac o oil p ice on he Nige ian economy. JORIND, 9(1), 211–218.
22. A iwe iokuma, S. (2008). The Poli ical Economy o Oil and Gas in A ican: A Case o Nige ia. New Yo k:
Rou ledge.
23. Ayadi, F. (2005). Oil P ice Fluc ua ions and he Nige ian Economy. OPEC Re iew, 29(3), 199-217.
24. Ayadi, S. (2017). Resou ce Endowmen and Economic G ow h in Selec ed A ican Coun ies. Jou nal o
Managemen and Social Sciences, 6, 284-302.
25. Aye, G., Dada n, V., Gup a, R., & Mamba, B. (2014). Oil P ice Unce ain y and Manu ac u ing P oduc ion. Ene gy
Economics,43:41-47.
26. Balouga, J. (2012). The Poli ical Economy o Oil Subsidy in Nige ia. In e na ional Associa ion o Ene gy
Economics, 31-36.
27. Bashe , A., Haug, A., & Sado sky, P. (2018). The impac o oil-ma ke shocks on s ock e u ns in majo oil-
expo ing coun ies. Jou nal o In e na ional Money and Finance, 86, 264-280.
28. Budina, N., & Wijnbe gen, S. . (2008). Managing Oil Re enue Vola ili y in Nige ia: The Role o Fiscal Policy. In
D. S. Go, & J. Page, A ica a a Tu ning Poin ? G ow h, Aid, and Ex e nal shocks (pp. 427-459). Washing on DC:
The Wo ld Bank.
29. CBN. (2015). S a is ical Bulle in. Abuja: Cen al Bank o Nige ia.
30. Cha eddine, L., & Ba ka , K. (2020). Sho - and long- un asymme ic e ec o oil p ices and oil and gas e enues
on he eal GDP and economic di e si ica ion in oil-dependen economy. Ene gy Economics, 86, 104680.
31. Coady, D. P., Ma i, A., Baig, T., & N ama ungi o, J. (2007). Domes ic Pe oleum P oduc P ices and Subsidies:
Recen De elopmen s and Re o m S a egies. IMF Wo king Pape .
32. Cyphe , M., & Die z, L. (2004). The P ocess o Economic De elopmen . London and New Yo k: Rou ledge.
33. Daggash, M. (2008). Why Nige ia Needs a Na ional De elopmen Mas e Plan. Vangua d, 35-36.
34. Des a, G. (2003). The O ganiza ion o Pe oleum Expo ing Coun ies, he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion, and Regional
T ade Ag eemen s. Jou nal o Wo ld T ade, 37(3), 523-551.
35. Doma , E. (1946). Capi al expansion, a e o g ow h, and employmen . Jou nal o he Econome ic Socie y, 14(2),
137-147.
36. Duncan, J. (2008) ‘G ow h implica ions o a ia ions in in e na ional oil p ices: The Nige ian economy’, Economic
Jou nal o Nige ia, 6(3), pp. 61–69.
37. Dwi edi, D. N (2004). Manage ial Economics, 6 h edi ion, Vikas Publishing, New Delhi
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
60
38. Ebele, E. (2015). Oil P ice Vola ili y and Economic G ow h in Nige ia: An Empi ical In es iga ion. Eu opean
Jou nal o Humani ies and Social Sciences, 34(1), 1901-1918.
39. Edesi i, G. O. (2014). Oil p ice ola ili y and economic g ow h in Nige ia. Ac a Uni e si a is Danubius Economica,
10(1), 70-82.
40. Edo, S., & Ikelegbe, A. (2014). The Nige ian Economy: Re o ms, Eme ging T ends And P ospec s. Benin Ci y:
Cen e o Popula ion an i En i onmen al De elopmen (CPED).
41. Egonwan, A. J., & Ibie an, S. W. (2013). De elopmen Adminis a ion: Theo y and P ac ice. Benin Ci y: Resyin
(Nig.) Company L d.
42. EIA. (2016). Coun y Analysis B ie : Nige ia. Independen s a is ics and analysis. Washing on, DC: U.S. Ene gy
In o ma ion Adminis a ion.
43. Fa ouh, B. (2011). An Ana omy o he C ude Oil P icing. London: Ox o d Ins i u e o Ene gy S udies.
44. Flo ence, H., & Chioma, D. (2019). Impac o Oil P ice Changes on Selec ed Mac oeconomic Va iables in Nige ia.
Sou h Asian Jou nal o Social S udies and Economics, 4, 1-10.
45. F ankel, G. (2005). Managing De elopmen : Measu es o Success and Failu e in De elopmen . New Yo k: Palg a e
Macmillan.
46. Gboyega, A., Minh, T. L., Shukla, G. P., & So eide, T. (2011). Poli ical Economy o he Pe oleum Sec o .
Washing on, D.C: Wo ld Bank.
47. Gold, R. (2014). How C ude Oil’s Global Collapse Un olded: T acing he Plunge In Oil P ices Back o Texas. New
Yo k: The Wall S ee Jou nal: Business.
48. Gounde, R., & Ba lee , M. (2007). Oil P ice Shocks and Economic G ow h: E idence o New Zealand, 1989-2006.
New Zealand Associa ion o Economis Annual Con e ence. Ch is chu ch: Quali y assu ed pape .
49. G ange , C. W. (1969). De elopmen s in he S udy o Coin eg a ed Economic Va iables. Ox o d Bulle in o
Economics and S a is ics, 48(3), 213-228.
50. G isse, C., (2010). Wha d i es he oil-dolla co ela ion? Fede al Rese e Bank o New Yo k. Decembe 2010.
Mimeo.
51. G eene, W. H. (2012). Econome ic analysis (7 h ed.). Ha low, Essex: P en ice Hall.
52. Guja a i, D. N. (2004). Basic Econome ics (4 h ed.). New Delhi: Ta a McG aw-Hill Companies.
53. Gunu, U., and Kilishi, A. A. (2010). Oil p ices and he e ms o ade. In e na ional Jou nal o Business and
Managemen , 5(8), 39-49.
54. Hakeem, B., Rasaki, K., and Bolade, O. (2015). E ec s o in la ion a e on economic g ow h in Nige ia. De eloping
Coun ies S udies, 5(8), 153-160.
55. Halle , A. P. (2012). Concep s o Economic G ow h and De elopmen . Challenges o C isis and o knowledge.
Economy T ansdisciplina i y Cogni ion, 15(1), 66-71.
56. Hanson, S. (2007, Ma ch 22). MEND: The Nige Del a’s umb ella mili an g oup. Council on Fo eign Rela ions.
h ps://www.c .o g/nige ia/mend-nige -del as-umb ella-mili an -g oup/p12920
57. Ha bison, F. (1973). Human esou ces as he weal h o na ions. To on o, London: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 173(21),
161-167.
58. Ha od, R. F. (1939). An essay in dynamic heo y. Blackwell Publishing o he Royal Socie y: The Economic
Jou nal, 49(139), 14-33.
59. Hooke , M. A. (2002). A e Oil Shocks In la iona y? Asymme ic and Nonlinea Speci ica ions e sus Changes in
Regime. Jou nal o Money, C edi and Banking, 34(2), 540-561.
60. Ibie an, J., & Ekhosuehi, O. (2013). T ends in De elopmen Planning in Nige ia: 1962 o 2012. Jou nal o
Sus ainable De elopmen in A ica, 15(4), 297-311.
61. Iji sha , U. (2019). Impac o T ade Openness on Economic G ow h among ECOWAS Coun ies: 1975-2017. CBN
Jou nal o Applied S a is ics, 10, 75-96.
62. Ikeanyibe, O. M. (2009). De elopmen Planning in Nige ia: Re lec ions on he Na ional Economic Empowe men
and De elopmen S a egy (Needs) 2003-2007. Jou nal o Social Sciences, 20(3), 197-210.
63. Imobighe, D. (2015). The Impac o Oil P ice Ins abili y on he G ow h P ocess o he Nige ian Economy. Jou nal o
Resou ces De elopmen and Managemen , 14, 56-70.
64. Jimenez-Rod iguez, R., & Sanchez, M. (2003). Oil Shocks and he Mac o-economy: A Compa ison Ac oss High Oil
P ice Pe iods. Applied Economics Le e s, 16(16), 1633-1638.
65. Jhingan, M. L. (2005). The economics o de elopmen and planning (38 h ed.). Delhi, India: V inda Publica ions.
66. Kaldo , N. (1956). Al e na i e heo ies o dis o ion. Re . Economic S udies, 23(2), 83-100.
67. Ka h yn, N. D. (2012). The Poli ical Economy o Oil and Rebellion in Nige ia’s Nige Del a. Re iew o A ican
Poli ical Economy, 39(132), 295-313.
68. KPMG. (2014). Nige ia’s Oil and Gas Indus y B ie . Lagos: KPMG P o essional Se ices.
69. Leblanc, M., & Chinn, M. D. (2004). Do High Oil P ices P esage In la ion? The E idence om G-5 Coun ies.
Business Economics, 39(2), 38-48.
70. Lu z, K. (2009). Oil P ice Vola ili y: O igins and E ec s. Gene a: Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion.
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
61
71. Majidi, M. (2006). Impac o oil on in e na ional economy. In e na ional Economics cou se: Cen e o Science and
Inno a ion S udies.
72. Majumda , R. (2016, July 22). The Oil Migh y: The Economic Impac o Oil P ice Fluc ua ions. Global Economic
Ou look, pp. 70-77.
73. Mhalla, M. (2020). The Impac o No el Co ona i us (COVID-19) on he Global Oil and A ia ion Ma ke s. Jou nal
o Asian Scien i ic Resea ch, 10, 96-104.
74. Miei o, S., & Ramos, P. N. (2010). Du ch Disease in Macau: Diagnosis and T ea men s. A hens: 9 h Annual
Con e ence o he Eu opean Economics and Finance Socie y.
75. Mo di, C. N., & Michael, A. A. (2010). The Asymme ic E ec s o Oil P ice Shocks on Ou pu and P ices in Nige ia
Using a S uc u al VAR Model. Economic and Financial Re iew, 48(1), 1-32.
76. Nwinkina, C. G. (2000). Readings in business inance. Po Ha cou : Ano Publica ion Co. L d.
77. Nwosa, I. (2020). Oil p ice, exchange a e and s ock ma ke pe o mance du ing he COVID-19 pandemic:
Implica ions o TNCs and FDI in low in Nige ia. T ansna ional Co po a ions Re iew, 13(1), 125-137.
78. Nzo a, S. M. (2014). Money, banking and inance (2nded.). Owe i, Nige ia: Osp ey Publishe s.
79. Obi, B., Oluseyi, S., & E ans, O. (2018). Impac o oil p ice shocks on s ock ma ke p ices ola ili y in Nige ia: new
e idence om a non-linea ARDL Coin eg a ion. Jou nal o Global Economy, 14(3), 173-190.
80. Ojiku u, T., Onolemhemhen, U., & Isehunwa, O. (2017). In e na ional jou nal o ene gy economics and policy c ude
oil p ice ola ili y and i s impac on Nige ian S ock Ma ke Pe o mance (1985-2014). 8 July 2020) In e na ional
Jou nal o Ene gy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 302-311.
81. Oke e, I., Muoneke, O., & Onuoha, C. (2021). Symme ic and asymme ic e ec s o c ude oil p ice and exchange
a e on s ock ma ke pe o mance in Nige ia: E idence om mul iple s uc u al b eak and NARDL analysis. The
Jou nal o In e na ional T ade & Economic De elopmen , 30(6), 930-956.
82. Olayeni, R., Tiwa i, K., & Woha , E. (2020). Global economic ac i i y, c ude oil p ice and p oduc ion, s ock ma ke
beha iou and he Nige ia-US exchange a e. Ene gy Economics, 92, 104938.
83. Olomola, P. A. (2006). Oil P ice Shocks and Agg ega e Economic Ac i i y in Nige ia. A ican Economic and
Business Re iew, 4(2), 40-45.
84. Olusegun, O. A. (2008). Oil P ice Shocks and he Nige ian Economy: A Fo ecas E o Va iance Decomposi ion
Analysis. Jou nal o Economics heo y, 2(4), 124- 130.
85. Olu oye, M. A. (2005). Imp o emen o Nige ian c ude esidue. Leona do Jou nal o Sciences, 1(7), 33-42.
86. Omoke, P., & Uche, E. (2021). How does pu chasing powe in OPEC coun ies espond o oil p ice pe iodic shocks?
F esh e idence om Quan ile ARDL speci ica ion. OPEC Ene gy Re iew, 45(4), 438-461.
87. Onyenekenwa , C. E. (2011). Nige ia’s Vision 20:2020-Issues, Challenges and Implica ions o De elopmen
Managemen . Asian Jou nal o Ru al De elopmen , 21-40.
88. O iakhi, E., & Osaze, I. (2013). Oil P ice Vola ili y and i s Consequences on he G ow h o he Nige ian Economy:
An Examina ion (1970-2010). Asian Economic and Financial Re iew, 3(5), 683-702.
89. Osinubi, T. S. (2005). Mac oeconome ic Analysis o G ow h, Unemploymen and Po e y in Nige ia. Pakis an
Economic and Social Re iew, 43(2), 249-269.
90. Pe kins, H., Radele , S., & Lindaue , D. (2006). Economics o De elopmen (6 h ed.). London: W.W. No on &
Company.
91. Rai u, A., & Osho a, O. (2022) Re-examining oil p ice-s ock ma ke e u ns nexus in Nige ia using a wo-s age
Ma ko egime swi ching app oach. In e na ional Jou nal o Ene gy Sec o Managemen , ahead-o -p in (ahead-o -
p in ).
92. Remenyi, J. (2014). Wha is De elopmen ? In J. Hun , D. Kingsbu y, J. McKay, & J. Remenyi, Key Issues in
De elopmen (pp. 22-44). New Yo k: Palg a e Macmillan.
93. Romano a, I. (2007). Oil Boom in Nige ia and i s Consequences o he Coun y s Economic De elopmen . Munich:
GRIN.
94. Ru a, M., & Venables, A. J. (2012). In e na ional T ade in Na u al Resou ces: P ac ice and Policy. Swi ze land:
Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion.
95. Salisu, A.A. & Fasayan, I.O. (2013). Modelling oil p ice ola ili y wi h s uc u al b eaks. Ene gy Policy, 52, 554-
562.
96. Sanusi, K., Kapingu a, F., and McMillan, D. (2022). On he ela ionship be ween oil p ice, exchange a e and s ock
ma ke pe o mance in Sou h A ica: Fu he e idence om ime- a ying and egime swi ching app oaches. Cogen
Economics & Finance, 10(1), 10.1080/23322039.2022.2106629
97. Sims, C. (1980). Mac oeconomics and Reali y. Econome ica, 48(1), 1-48.
98. Soyemi, A., Akingunola, O., & Ogebc, J. (2019). E ec s o oil p ice shock on s ock e u ns o ene gy i ms in
Nige ia. Kase sa Jou nal o Social Sciences, 40(1), 24-31.
99. Sule-Iko, S., & Ib ahim, A. (2021). An Empi ical In es iga ion in o he E ec o Global Oil P ice on Nige ia G oss
Domes ic P oduc om (2000-2019). Eu opean Jou nal o Business and Managemen , 13, 22-29.
100. Thabani Nyoni & Welling on G. Bonga (2018). Wha De e mines Economic G ow h In Nige ia.
101. The Wo ld Bank. (2015). Nige ia Economic Repo , www.wo ldbank.o g/da a
Global J Res Human Cul S ud. 2025; 5(5), 41-62
@ 2025 | PUBLISHED BY GJR PUBLICATION, INDIA
62
102. Uche, H. O. (2008). New app oach o in e na ional inance. The CIBN P ess L d.
103. Uche, E., & E iom, L. (2021). Oil p ice, exchange a e and s ock p ice in Nige ia: F esh insigh s based on quan ile
ARDL model. Economics and policy o ene gy and he En i onmen , 1(1), 59-79.
104. Ugwu, A. (2009). The Impe a i es o Na ional De elopmen P og ammes Ha moniza ion in Nige ia: Vision 2020,
Millennium De elopmen Goals and Se en Poin Agenda. Nige ian Jou nal o Public Adminis a ion and Local
Go e nmen , 14(2), 200 - 216.
105. Uma , G., & Abdulhakeem, A. (2010). Oil P ice Shocks and he Nige ia Economy: A Va iance Au o eg essi e
(VAR) model. In e na ional Jou nal o Business and Managemen , 5(8), 38-49.
106. Umo u D, Ohiomu S, and Akpeke R. (2018) The in luence o oil p ice ola ili y on selec ed mac oeconomic
a iables in Nige ia. Ac a Uni e si a is Bohemiae Me idionalis;21 (1): 1 -24.
107. Wake o d, J. J. (2006). The impac o oil p ice shocks on he Sou h A ican mac o economy. His o y and P ospec :
SARB Con e ence: 95-115.
