Un a elling he Cybe -Physical-Social In as uc u e Clima e Change Nexus
July 29 - Augus 1, 2024
Sola Radia ion Modi ica ion
Backg ound
In No embe 2026, clima e nego ia o s a he 31s Con e ence o he Pa ies summi (COP31) in
Aus alia [1] ag eed on a amewo k o deploy sola adia ion modi ica ion (SRM), amids
subs an ial p o es s om ci il socie y a endees in he summi ’s mo e in o mal “g een zone.”
P o es o s a subsequen clima e e en s a ound he wo ld ha e demanded g ea e commi men o
mi iga ing g eenhouse gas emissions, and public opinion is spli . Many de eloping na ions in Sou h
Ame ica and A ica a e ex emely conce ned abou po en ial impac s on ag icul u e and
eco ou ism due o shi ing p ecipi a ion pa e ns [2], and o he s iew SRM as a new o m o clima e
injus ice pe pe a ed by weal hy na ions on he es o he wo ld.
I is now he yea 2030, and es deploymen s o SRM using s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion (SAI) o
sul u dioxide (SO2) a e none heless p oceeding. Plans a e designed o con i m he cos s, payload
pe so ie, ope a ional pace, and o he cha ac e is ics o high-al i ude pla o ms o injec ion o a
sul a e p ecu so in o he a mosphe e a 25 km al i ude (app oxima ely 82,000 ). [3]
Inciden s ha e occu ed on wo ou o i e ecen es ligh s. In he i s , a modi ied ocke -assis ed
subsonic e sion o he SAI Lo e ai c a (SAIL-01) was scheduled o deli e an ae osol payload o
18,000 pounds (8.2 me ic onnes), bu an al ime e mal unc ion caused he deploymen o begin
a 17 km al i ude. In he second, a modi ied supe sonic c uise based on he SR-71 Blackbi d was
loaded wi h wha was la e de e mined o be a di e en (and non- eac i e) chemical han wha was
in ended as he payload. The i s ligh o igina ed in Aus alia, while he second was om he
Uni ed S a es.
These inciden s ecei ed majo media co e age, and as o now, independen in es iga ions ha e
no de e mined he cause o ei he episode. No one has claimed esponsibili y, and in es iga o s
ha e no uled ou he possibili y ha bo h occu ences we e acciden al. Mos iew his as unlikely,
howe e , gi en he sc u iny su ounding he es s and ha a majo issue occu ed on mo e han one
ligh .
Roles
This scena io includes i e di e en oles. Pa icipan s in hese oles should p opose a cou se o
ac ion ha ad oca es o hei assigned poin o iew. These cou ses o ac ion should e lec
in o ma ion abou equi ed esou ces, knowledge gaps o close, inciden esponse, e c.
• Diploma ic
o Coo dina ing in e na ional communica ions
o Examining and p oposing legal ami ica ions
• Cybe secu i y
o Assessing ex en o echnical impac s in sys ems, e alua ing inside h ea s
o P oposing u u ep oo solu ions o elimina e o he a ack su aces
Un a elling he Cybe -Physical-Social In as uc u e Clima e Change Nexus
July 29 - Augus 1, 2024
• Public A ai s
o Coo dina ing public ela ions communica ions a e he inciden s and du ing he
in es iga ions
• Na ional Secu i y
o De e mining impac s o u u e planned es s
o In es iga ing po en ial ampe ing wi h supply chain
• Clima e
o Examining consequences o clima e i al e na i e plans o use o SRM eme ge as a
esul o he inciden s
Re e ences
1. Aus alian Go e nmen . 2022. “Aus alia’s Biennial Communica ion – Decembe 2022.”
h ps://un ccc.in /si es/de aul / iles/ esou ce/Aus alia_2nd_Biennial%20Clima e%20Finan
ce%20Communica ion%20 o%20UNFCCC%20FINAL.pd
2. O'Neill, B., M. an Aals , Z. Zai on Ib ahim, L. Be ang Fo d, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz,
K. F iele , M. Ga schagen, A. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mi zabae , A. Thomas, and R. Wa en,
2022: Key Risks Ac oss Sec o s and Regions. In: Clima e Change 2022: Impac s, Adap a ion
and Vulne abili y. Con ibu ion o Wo king G oup II o he Six h Assessmen Repo o he
In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change [H.-O. Pö ne , D.C. Robe s, M. Tigno , E.S.
Poloczanska, K. Min enbeck, A. Aleg ía, M. C aig, S. Langsdo , S. Löschke, V. Mölle , A.
Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, Camb idge, UK and New Yo k, NY, USA,
pp. 2411–2538, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.025.
3. Smi h, W., Bha a ai, U., Bingaman, D. C., Mace, J. L., & Rice, C. V. (2022). Re iew o
possible e y high-al i ude pla o ms o s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion. En i onmen al
Resea ch Communica ions, 4(3), 031002.
SECURITY ROLE
Two high-p o ile ailu es on es deploymen s o s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion (SAI) ecen ly
occu ed, causing suspicion ha hey may ha e been ela ed and no acciden al. Because he
inciden s occu ed in di e en pa s o he wo ld and spu ed global media co e age, coun ies
leading he e o s a e con ening o discuss a esponse.
You play he pa o NATO’s Ai bo ne Ea ly Wa ning and Con ol Fo ce (NAEW&CF). NAEW&CF
p o ides NATO wi h an ai bo ne su eillance and con ol capabili y, c ucial o moni o ing and
coo dina ing high-al i ude ope a ions like SAI. I ensu es obus command and con ol o e he
ai space, essen ial o managing he deploymen o high-al i ude pla o ms used in SAI. I can
de ec and espond o po en ial ai bo ne h ea s, ensu ing secu i y o he deli e y pla o ms.
NAEW&CF ope a es unde NATO’s Allied Ai Command (AIRCOM). NATO AIRCOM p o ides
command and con ol o NATO’s In eg a ed Ai and Missile De ence mission, which
inco po a es all measu es ha con ibu e o de e ing any ai and missile h ea o o educe o
nulli y he e ec i eness o hos ile ai ac ions.
You should ocus you decision making on hose op ions a ailable o mili a y pe sonnel. You a e
ad oca ing o mili a y posi ions while iden i ying whe e he e exis syne gies wi h o he oles.
Resou ces
The esou ces po en ially a ailable o you a e hose belonging o NATO membe coun ies ha
would ypically be deployed in a non-wa ime en i onmen .
Example Ac ions
These example immedia e and long- e m ac ions do no limi you decisions. They a e p o ided
solely o s a he b ains o ming p ocess.
• Con inuous e iew o esponse measu es.
• Changes in le els o eadiness o mili a y pos u e.
• Immedia e imp o emen , implemen a ion, and de elopmen o con ingency plans.
• P opose a mili a y ope a ion wi h speci ic, ac ionable goals, a imeline, and a lis o
equi ed esou ces.
• Recommend and o e see aining exe cises in p epa a ion o u u e SAI mishaps.
• Fu he de elopmen o join mili a y exe cises.
Consequences o Inac ion
I he inciden s du ing ecen es deploymen s o SAI we e no acciden al, hose esponsible
may be emboldened o a emp mo e impac ul a acks on SRM plans. Public sen imen agains
SRM could be s eng hened, leading o changes in policy ha could make i mo e di icul o
a oid ca as ophic le els o global wa ming.
PUBLIC AFFAIRS ROLE
Two high-p o ile ailu es on es deploymen s o s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion (SAI) ecen ly
occu ed, causing suspicion ha hey may ha e been ela ed and no acciden al. Because he
inciden s occu ed in di e en pa s o he wo ld and spu ed global media co e age, coun ies
leading he e o s a e con ening o discuss a esponse.
You play he pa o he UN Depa men o Global Communica ions. The News and Media
Di ision (NMD) p oduces news and ea u es abou he Uni ed Na ions and i s p io i ies,
including daily p in , audio, ele ision, ideo, pho o, digi al, and social media con en in many
languages. Wi h a global audience and wide pick-up by media, non-go e nmen al o ganiza ions,
p i a e sec o and o he pa ne s, he NMD gene a es imely, accu a e, impa ial and eely
a ailable in o ma ion abou Uni ed Na ions ac i i ies a ound he wo ld. The Ou each Di ision
builds suppo o he Uni ed Na ions by os e ing dialogue wi h global cons i uencies such as
ci il socie y, he en e ainmen indus y, media, academia, educa o s, s uden s, and lib a ies.
You should ocus you decision making on hose op ions a ailable o public ela ions o ices
wi hin he UN and membe s a es. You a e ad oca ing o public a ai s posi ions while
iden i ying whe e he e exis syne gies wi h o he oles.
Resou ces
As a depa men wi hin he UN, you ha e access o a weal h o da a abou he SRM p og am,
expe s on science and science communica ion, and he ea o news media se ices a ound he
wo ld. You can also coo dina e wi h o he ele an o ices a he UN and mul i-na ional
o ganiza ions like NATO.
Example Ac ions
These example immedia e and long- e m ac ions do no limi you decisions. They a e p o ided
solely o s a he b ains o ming p ocess.
• Analyse sha ed da a o iden i y h ea s o u u e SAI es s.
• Assess he impac o he es ing inciden s on public opinion a ound he global.
• Wo k wi h go e nmen s o p omo e awa eness campaigns o ag eed-upon UN policies
ela ed o SAI and SRM.
• De elop and ehea se a c isis communica ion plan o ensu e eadiness in handling any
eme gencies o inciden s ha may a ise.
Consequences o Inac ion
Failu e o engage and communica e e ec i ely wi h s akeholde s can esul in a loss o us
and suppo , making i di icul o gain he necessa y app o als and coope a ion. Lack o public
suppo and unde s anding can lead o p o es s and legal challenges, po en ially delaying o
hal ing he ope a ion. Public sen imen agains SRM could lead o changes in policy ha would
make i mo e di icul o a oid ca as ophic le els o global wa ming.
DIPLOMATIC ROLE
Two high-p o ile ailu es on es deploymen s o s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion (SAI) ecen ly
occu ed, causing suspicion ha hey may ha e been ela ed and no acciden al. Because he
inciden s occu ed in di e en pa s o he wo ld and spu ed global media co e age, coun ies
leading he e o s a e con ening o discuss a esponse.
You play he pa o he No h A lan ic Council. The No h A lan ic Council (NAC) is he p incipal
poli ical decision-making body wi hin NATO, consis ing o ep esen a i es om all membe
coun ies. I was es ablished by A icle 9 o he No h A lan ic T ea y, which o med NATO in
1949. The NAC is esponsible o o e seeing he implemen a ion o alliance policies and o
coo dina ing de ence and secu i y s a egies among membe s a es. I mee s a leas weekly
and a a ious le els, including ambassado s, minis e s, and heads o s a e, o discuss and
add ess issues a ec ing he alliance. Decisions wi hin he NAC a e made by consensus,
e lec ing he collec i e will and ag eemen o all membe na ions.
You should ocus you decision making on hose op ions a ailable only o diploma s and
poli icians. You a e ad oca ing o policy solu ions while iden i ying whe e he e exis syne gies
wi h o he oles.
Resou ces
The esou ces a ailable o you a e hose belonging o NATO membe coun ies ha would
ypically be deployed in a non-wa ime en i onmen . You ha e he abili y o in e ac and
coo dina e wi h any diploma o agency associa ed wi h NATO membe s a es, as well as
access o ele an o ices and s a a he UN which has coo dina ed he SRM policy.
Example Ac ions
These example immedia e and long- e m ac ions do no limi you decisions. They a e p o ided
solely o s a he b ains o ming p ocess.
• Assess impac s and assign app op ia e consequences o he ac ions.
• Coo dina e ac ion h ough he UN o assess changes needed o secu e u u e es s.
• Roo cause analysis and add essing said cause.
• P opose he c ea ion o a join ask o ce.
Consequences o Inac ion
Failu e o secu e hese ope a ions could unde mine us in in e na ional clima e in e en ion
e o s, complica ing u u e collabo a ions. Po en ial a acke s migh exploi he si ua ion,
leading o inc eased geopoli ical ensions and po en ial con lic s.
CYBERSECURITY ROLE
Two high-p o ile ailu es on es deploymen s o s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion (SAI) ecen ly
occu ed, causing suspicion ha hey may ha e been ela ed and no acciden al. Because he
inciden s occu ed in di e en pa s o he wo ld and spu ed global media co e age, coun ies
leading he e o s a e con ening o discuss a esponse.
You play he pa o NATO Coope a i e Cybe De ence Cen e o Excellence (CCDCOE) s ee ing
commi ee. CCDCOE p o ides a hub o cybe de ence expe ise and cybe ope a ions, o e ing
a ange o se ices including cybe de ence exe cises, esea ch and de elopmen , and
coo dina ion o mul ina ional cybe secu i y e o s. Thei long- e m mission is o suppo
membe na ions wi h unique in e disciplina y expe ise in he ield o cybe de ence esea ch,
aining and exe cises co e ing he ocus a eas o echnology, s a egy, ope a ions and law. They
b ing oge he NATO allies and pa ne s beyond he Alliance, o e ing an in e disciplina y
app oach o he mos ele an issues in cybe de ence h ough esea ch, ainings and
exe cises.
You should ocus you decision making on hose op ions a ailable o cybe secu i y pe sonnel.
You a e ad oca ing o cybe -in elligence and secu i y posi ions while iden i ying whe e he e
exis syne gies wi h o he oles.
Resou ces
The esou ces a ailable o you a e hose belonging o NATO membe coun ies ha would
ypically be deployed in a non-wa ime en i onmen . The UN has been coo dina ing SRM es ing
ac i i ies, bu he NATO CCDCOE has esou ces which could be used in NATO coun ies and
beyond o assis wi h diagnosing he pas inciden s and secu ing u u e es s.
Example Ac ions
These example immedia e and long- e m ac ions do no limi you decisions. They a e p o ided
solely o s a he b ains o ming p ocess.
• In es iga e inside ac ion possibili ies.
• Conside o ensi e coo dina ion, no capabili y.
• Th ea In o ma ion and IT pooling and sha ing.
• Ransomwa e a acks a e p e en ed and impac s lessened.
• In eg a ion o cybe acili ies wi h mili a y capabili ies.
Consequences o Inac ion
Wi hou p oac i e cybe diplomacy and de ence, c i ical sys ems could be u he
comp omised, leading o mo e ex ensi e damage and long- e m secu i y challenges.
Manipula ion o he o da a ela ed o he SAI deploymen could lead o misin o ma ion,
impac ing he analysis o esul s and subsequen decision-making p ocesses.
CLIMATE ROLE
Two high-p o ile ailu es on es deploymen s o s a osphe ic ae osol injec ion (SAI) ecen ly
occu ed, causing suspicion ha hey may ha e been ela ed and no acciden al. Because he
inciden s occu ed in di e en pa s o he wo ld and spu ed global media co e age, coun ies
leading he e o s a e con ening o discuss a esponse.
You play he pa o NATO’s Science and Technology O ganiza ion (STO). The STO is a NATO
subsidia y body ha ing he same legal s a us han NATO i sel and c ea ed wi hin he amewo k
o he No h A lan ic T ea y signed in 1949. I has been es ablished wi h a iew o mee ing o he
bes ad an age he collec i e needs o NATO, NATO Na ions and pa ne Na ions in he ields o
Science and Technology. The STO boa d is chai ed by he NATO Chie Scien is , a high-le el
ecognized S&T leade o a NATO na ion pe manen ly assigned o he NATO headqua e s in
B ussels.
You should ocus you decision making on hose op ions a ailable o clima e and en i onmen al
expe s. You a e ad oca ing o en i onmen al isk-mi iga ing solu ions while p o iding analysis
o he sho - and long- e m impac s o clima e in e en ions on he abili y o mee
in e na ionally-ag eed upon clima e change goals.
Resou ces
The esou ces a ailable o you a e hose belonging o NATO membe coun ies ha can be used
o suppo UN e o s on SRM es ing. This could include ec ui ing scien i ic expe s o es i y
abou po en ial isks, assessing he impac s o al e na i e policy p oposals, and
communica ing he geospa ially a ying impac s and unce ain ies a ound SRM deploymen .
Example Ac ions
These example immedia e and long- e m ac ions do no limi you decisions. They a e p o ided
solely o s a he b ains o ming p ocess.
• Es ablish wo king g oups o e alua e he impac s o delays in SRM deploymen and
al e na i e op ions o he use o SAI (e.g., a di e en la i udes and al i udes).
• P o ide expe s o in e iews as pa o communica ions campaigns a e he es
inciden s.
• Re-e alua e plans o o he o ms o geoenginee ing as a con ingency i public opinion
leads o de ailmen o SRM policies.
Consequences o Inac ion
Inac ion in deploying SRM s a egies like SAI could lead o wo sening clima e impac s, wi h a -
eaching consequences o he en i onmen , human heal h, economies, and global s abili y.
The isks o inac ion highligh he u gency o explo ing and implemen ing e ec i e clima e
mi iga ion s a egies.
Scena io B ie ing No es — Sola Radia ion Modi ica ion
Page 1
Un a elling he Cybe -Physical-Social In as uc u e
Clima e Change (CPSICC) Nexus
Scena io Backg ound – Sola Radia ion Modifica ion1
This scena io co e s he use o s a osphe ic ae osol in e en ions (SAI), a o m o sola
adia ion modifica ion (SRM). SAI aims o limi clima e change o a non-dange ous le el by
educing he Ea h’s empe a u e. Howe e , he e is low confidence and high le els o
unce ain y o he po en ial impac s o SAI. The objec i e is o p o ide su icien backg ound
o pa icipan s o unde s and and engage wi h he scena io's complexi ies and po en ial
ou comes p ojec ed o 2050.
Wha is Sola Radia ion Modifica ion?
Sola Radia ion Modifica ion (SRM), also known as Sola
Radia ion Managemen , Radia ion Modifica ion Measu es o
Sola Geoenginee ing, aims o eflec sunligh back in o space
o educe Ea h’s in a ed adia ion and he Ea h’s empe a u e.
SRM does no add ess he oo cause o clima e change, which
is he inc ease in g eenhouse gases (GHG) in he a mosphe e.
While he e a e se e al di e en ypes o SRM, his scena io
ocuses on s a osphe ic ae osol in e en ions (SAI) which
pe ains o he injec ion o eflec i e ae osol pa icles di ec ly
in o he s a osphe e o a gas which hen con e s o ae osols
ha eflec sunligh .
One example would be he in en ional elease o highly
eflec i e fine pa icles o hei p ecu so s a an al i ude o 20–
25 km, which could ha e an e ec simila o he Moun
Pina ubo e up ion on 15 June 1991. The olcano h ew abou 15
million ons o sulphu dioxide in o he s a osphe e, whe e i
eac ed wi h wa e o o m a hazy laye o ae osol pa icles. S ong s a osphe ic winds sp ead hese
ae osol pa icles a ound he globe. O e he nex 15 mon hs, he a e age global empe a u e d opped by
abou 0.60 °C.
1 In o ma ion p esen ed he ein is hea ily based on O'Neill, B., M. an Aals , Z. Zai on Ib ahim, L. Be ang Fo d, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K.
F iele , M. Ga schagen, A. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mi zabae , A. Thomas, and R. Wa en, 2022: Key Risks Ac oss Sec o s and Regions. In: Clima e
Change 2022: Impac s, Adap a ion and Vulne abili y. Con ibu ion o Wo king G oup II o he Six h Assessmen Repo o he In e go e nmen al
Panel on Clima e Change [H.-O. Pö ne , D.C. Robe s, M. Tigno , E.S. Poloczanska, K. Min enbeck, A. Aleg ía, M. C aig, S. Langsdo , S. Löschke, V.
Mölle , A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, Camb idge, UK and New Yo k, NY, USA, pp. 2411–2538,
doi:10.1017/9781009325844.025. Please e e o o iginal o e e ences.
P omp o pa icipan s
• Wha p ocesses a e needed o help
na ions decide whe he no el
echnology such as SRM
echnologies should be de eloped
and/o deployed?
• Wha p ocesses a e needed o help
na ions decide how o assess he
isks and benefi s o no el
echnology such as SRM?
• Wha p ocesses a e needed o help
na ions decide who should be
esponsible o he de elopmen and
deploymen o no el echnology
such as SRM?
Scena io B ie ing No es — Sola Radia ion Modi ica ion
Page 2
Modelling s udies show SAI could educe su ace empe a u es and po en ially amelio a e some clima e
change isks, bu SAI could also in oduce a ange o new isks. The e ec s o SAI would only las i
deploymen is main ained, wi h SAI equi ing yea ly injec ion o ae osols as he li e ime o ae osols in he
s a osphe e is 1–3 yea s. The mo e in ense he SRM deploymen , he la ge he isk likelihood. Sudden and
sus ained e mina ion o SRM would esul in apid wa ming. The magni ude o e mina ion depends on he
deg ee o wa ming o se .
Wha a e he en i onmen al impac s o Sola Radia ion Modifica ion?
Modelling s udies ha e shown SRM has he po en ial o
o se some e ec s o inc easing GHGs on global and
egional clima e, including he inc ease in equency and
in ensi y o ex emes o empe a u e and p ecipi a ion,
mel ing o A c ic Sea ice and moun ain glacie s, weakening
o A lan ic me idional o e u ning ci cula ion, changes in
equency and in ensi y o opical cyclones, and dec ease in
soil mois u e. Howe e , SRM would nei he main ain he
clima e in i s p esen -day s a e no e u n he clima e o a
p e-indus ial s a e in all egions and in all seasons e en
when used o ully o se he global mean wa ming.
The egional and seasonal clima es o a wo ld wi h a global mean wa ming achie ed ia SRM would be
di e en om a wo ld wi h simila global mean wa ming bu achie ed h ough mi iga ion. A he egional
scale and seasonal ime scale, he e could be conside able esidual clima e change and/o
o e compensa ing change (e.g., mo e cooling, we ing, o d ying han jus wha is needed o o se
wa ming, d ying, o we ing due o an h opogenic g eenhouse gas emissions), and he e is low confidence
in he unde s anding o he clima e esponse o SRM a he egional scale.
SAI may educe he isk o co al ee bleaching compa ed wi h global wa ming wi h no SAI bu isks o
ma ine li e om ocean acidifica ion would emain because SRM does no educe ele a ed le els o
an h opogenic a mosphe ic CO2 concen a ions. Reduc ion in p ecipi a ion in Amazonia and cen al A ica
due o SAI is expec ed o change he biogeog aphy o opical ecosys ems in ways di e en om bo h
p esen -day clima e and global wa ming wi hou SAI. This could ha e la ge consequences o ecosys em
se ices. SAI may educe high-fi e- isk wea he in Aus alia, Eu ope, and pa s o he Ame icas, compa ed
wi h global wa ming wi hou SAI. Ye SAI could also shi he spa ial dis ibu ion o acid-induced aluminium
soil oxici y in o ela i ely undis u bed ecosys ems in Eu ope and No h Ame ica. A sudden e mina ion o
SAI could b ing ab up changes o he wa e cycle and place many housands o species a isk o
ex inc ion because he esul ing apid wa ming would be oo as o species o ack he changing clima e.
Wha a e he socioeconomic impac s o Sola Radia ion Modifica ion?
SRM is likely o ha e some impac s on c op yields, howe e , he e is cu en ly low confidence and la ge
unce ain y on wha he e ec s could be. Fo example, in some cases, i may educe c op p oduc i i y a
highe la i udes by educing he g owing season leng h bu benefi c op p oduc i i y in lowe la i udes by
educing hea s ess.
Few s udies ha e assessed po en ial SRM impac s on human heal h and well-being. Howe e , SRM may
shi he zones o communicable diseases, hea s ess and ex eme wea he e en s, which can igge new
mo ali y and mo bidi y pa e ns. Fo example, SAI using sulpha e ae osols is p ojec ed o deple e he
ozone laye , inc easing mo ali y om skin cance . The impac on mo ali y due o ai pollu ion is unce ain
and would depend on ae osol ype and deploymen . This is because, SAI could inc ease mo ali y due o an
inc ease in pa icula e ma e due o o se ing wa ming, educed p ecipi a ion, and deposi ion o SAI
P omp o pa icipan s
• How can na ions balance he
en i onmen al impac s o SRM wi h he
need o sus ained wa e , ene gy, and
ood supply?
• Wha in e na ional policies should be
implemen ed o manage he
en i onmen al impac SRM?
