Co esponding au ho : Ade onke Adewunmi
Copy igh © 2025 Au ho (s) e ain he copy igh o his a icle. This a icle is published unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License 4.0.
Compa a i e assessmen o oad acciden equency in midsize and densely
popula ed ci ies: Analyzing isk ac o s and socie al bu den
Ade onke Oluwabunmi Adewunmi 1, * and A ome John Ozigagu 2
1 Depa men o U ban and Regional Planning, Osun S a e Uni e si y, Nige ia.
2 Depa men o Ci il and En i onmen al Enginee ing, Uni e si y o Rhode Island, USA.
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 26(02), 2795-2808
Publica ion his o y: Recei ed on 02 Ap il 2025; e ised on 10 May 2025; accep ed on 12 May 2025
A icle DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.30574/wja .2025.26.2.1961
Abs ac
This s udy p esen s a compa a i e assessmen o oad a ic acciden s in Ilo in, a midsize Nige ian ci y, and Lagos, a
densely popula ed me opolis. I explo es acciden equency, unde lying isk ac o s, and he socie al bu den o a ic
inciden s in bo h u ban se ings, using u ban sys ems heo y, isk managemen heo y, and he social de e minan s o
heal h heo y as i s amewo ks. The s udy uses a compa a i e c oss-sec ional design, analyzing acciden da a om
2018 o 2023 h ough desk op esea ch, and in eg a es quali a i e me hods including in e iews wi h 100 s akeholde s,
anging om acciden ic ims o u ban planne s, and ocus g oup discussions wi h oad use s.
Findings e eal ha Lagos expe iences a signi ican ly highe a e age o 15,000 acciden s pe yea due o popula ion
densi y, equen ehicle b eakdowns, and a ic conges ion. Ilo in, hough eco ding ewe acciden s (a ound 4,500
annually), has a highe a ali y a e, la gely due o poo oad in as uc u e and inadequa e eme gency se ices. Bo h
ci ies sha e common causes such as eckless d i ing and speeding. Lagos su e s g ea e inancial losses (₦500
million/mon h) compa ed o Ilo in (₦100 million/mon h), wi h implica ions o heal hca e and p ope y. The s udy
concludes by ecommending ci y-speci ic s a egies: a ic managemen and ehicle upg ades o Lagos, and imp o ed
in as uc u e and eme gency esponse o Ilo in, highligh ing he need o con ex -d i en oad sa e y policies.
Keywo ds: Road T a ic Acciden s; U ban Sa e y; Risk Fac o s; Acciden F equency; Road In as uc u e; Eme gency
Se ices; T a ic Managemen .
1. In oduc ion
Road a ic acciden s (RTAs) emain one o he mos p essing public heal h and u ban sa e y challenges o he 21s
cen u y. Ac oss he globe, millions o li es a e a ec ed yea ly, ei he h ough loss, inju y, o long- e m socioeconomic
consequences. Acco ding o he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO, 2023), app oxima ely 1.19 million people die
annually om oad a ic c ashes, wi h ens o millions mo e sus aining non- a al inju ies, o en esul ing in long- e m
disabili ies. These inciden s a e no only a heal h conce n bu also place a subs an ial bu den on na ional economies,
consuming esou ces ha could o he wise be di ec ed o o he sec o s o de elopmen .
U baniza ion and mo o iza ion a e among he key d i e s o oad a ic inciden s. As ci ies g ow and e ol e, so does
he complexi y o hei anspo a ion ne wo ks. A oad acciden can be de ined as any un o eseen inciden on he oad
in ol ing a leas one mo ing ehicle and esul ing in inju y, dea h, o p ope y damage (Akinlade, 2021). The equency
o hese acciden s o en a ies wi h ci y size, popula ion densi y, a ic olume, in as uc u e quali y, and en o cemen
o a ic laws. Densely popula ed ci ies ypically expe ience a highe olume o ehicles, inc eased pedes ian ac i i y,
and mo e complex a ic lows, which may inc ease he likelihood o acciden s (Onakomaiya & Oyesiku, 2019). On he
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o he hand, midsize ci ies may ha e less conges ion bu may s ill con end wi h poo ly main ained oads, inadequa e
signage, o less obus eme gency esponse sys ems.
The classi ica ion o ci ies is essen ial o his discussion. A midsize ci y o en e e s o an u ban a ea wi h a mode a e
popula ion size - ypically be ween 100,000 and 500,000 inhabi an s. These ci ies end o ha e simple a ic sys ems
bu migh lack he in as uc u al in es men s seen in la ge ci ies. In con as , densely popula ed ci ies, such as Lagos
o Kano in Nige ia, o en house millions o esiden s wi hin a compac space, leading o signi ican anspo p essu e
and inc eased acciden isks (Ajibola & A owolo, 2020).
Recen ends sugges a wo ying ise in u ban oad a ic inciden s, especially in de eloping coun ies whe e u ban
expansion o en ou paces in as uc u e and policy de elopmen . In Nige ia, o example, da a om he Fede al Road
Sa e y Co ps (FRSC) e ealed o e 10,000 eco ded c ashes in 2022 alone, wi h highe a es epo ed in la ge ci ies
like Lagos and Abuja compa ed o mid- ie ci ies such as Ilo in o Uyo (FRSC, 2023). Mo eo e , he socie al bu den o
hese acciden s goes beyond he ic ims and hei amilies. The e a e ipple e ec s - s ained hospi al sys ems, loss o
wo k o ce p oduc i i y, ising insu ance cos s, and inc eased go e nmen spending on acciden esponse and a ic
managemen .
While se e al s udies ha e in es iga ed oad acciden pa e ns in isola ion o ocused on u al-u ban dispa i ies, he e
is a no iceable gap in esea ch compa ing midsize and densely popula ed ci ies wi hin he same na ional con ex . Such
a compa ison can shed ligh on localized isk ac o s, assess he e ec i eness o exis ing in e en ions, and guide
policymake s owa d con ex -speci ic solu ions. Analyzing he equency and cha ac e is ics o oad acciden s ac oss
ci y ypes will help o o e insigh s ha can suppo sa e u ban anspo planning, imp o ed oad design, and ailo ed
en o cemen s a egies.
1.1. P oblem s a emen
Road a ic acciden s emain a leading cause o inju y and p ema u e dea h wo ldwide, pa icula ly in low- and middle-
income coun ies whe e u ban g ow h o en ou paces in as uc u e de elopmen and policy en o cemen (Wo ld
Heal h O ganiza ion [WHO], 2023). In Nige ia, he inc easing a e o acciden s in bo h midsize and densely popula ed
ci ies is ala ming. Ci ies like Lagos and Abuja g apple wi h conges ion, pedes ian o e load, and high ehicle densi y,
midsize ci ies such as Ilo in o Uyo ace challenges ela ed o poo oad condi ions, limi ed en o cemen , and inadequa e
eme gency esponse sys ems (Akinlade, 2021; FRSC, 2023).
Despi e he isible di e ences in ci y s uc u e and size, he e has been limi ed schola ly ocus on how hese di e ences
in luence acciden equency and socie al bu den. Mos s udies ei he gene alize acciden pa e ns ac oss u ban a eas
o ocus solely on la ge ci ies, neglec ing he expe iences o smalle u ban cen e s (Onakomaiya & Oyesiku, 2019). This
has esul ed in a gap in compa a i e da a ha can in o m anspo sa e y policies ailo ed o speci ic u ban
en i onmen s.
Fu he mo e, he socie al impac o oad a ic acciden s goes beyond he immedia e loss o li e and inju y. They exe
immense p essu e on public heal h sys ems, inc ease economic cos s due o los p oduc i i y, and deepen social
inequali ies, especially in ci ies whe e heal hca e access and a ic egula ion a y widely (Ajibola & A owolo, 2020).
Wi hou unde s anding how ci y size and popula ion densi y in luence acciden isks and consequences, i becomes
di icul o design e ec i e, con ex -sensi i e in e en ions.
This s udy, he e o e, seeks o ill a c i ical esea ch gap by conduc ing a compa a i e assessmen o oad acciden
equency in midsize and densely popula ed ci ies. I aims o iden i y unique isk ac o s in each se ing and assess he
b oade socie al bu den, wi h a iew o in o ming a ge ed u ban sa e y policies and in as uc u e planning.
1.2. Aim and objec i es o he s udy
The aim o his s udy is o conduc a compa a i e assessmen o oad acciden equency in midsize and densely
popula ed ci ies, wi h a ocus on iden i ying key isk ac o s and e alua ing he socie al bu den associa ed wi h oad
a ic acciden s in each con ex . This would be achie ed h ough he ollowing ope a ional s eps:
• To compa e he equency o oad a ic acciden s be ween midsize ci ies and densely popula ed ci ies.
• To iden i y and analyze he majo isk ac o s con ibu ing o oad acciden s in each ci y ype.
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• To assess he social and economic bu den o oad a ic acciden s on a ec ed indi iduals, amilies, and u ban
sys ems in bo h con ex s.
• To e alua e how u ban cha ac e is ics such as popula ion densi y, oad in as uc u e, and a ic olume
in luence acciden ends.
• To p o ide con ex -speci ic ecommenda ions o imp o ing oad sa e y and educing acciden - ela ed impac s
in midsize and densely popula ed u ban a eas.
The abo e is achie ed h ough he ollowing esea ch ques ions:
▪ Wha a e he di e ences in he equency o oad a ic acciden s be ween midsize and densely popula ed
ci ies?
▪ Wha a e he majo isk ac o s con ibu ing o oad acciden s in midsize ci ies compa ed o densely popula ed
ci ies?
▪ How does he socie al bu den o oad a ic acciden s (including heal h, economic, and social impac s) a y
be ween he wo ci y ypes?
▪ In wha ways do u ban cha ac e is ics—such as popula ion densi y, oad in as uc u e, and a ic olume—
in luence acciden equency and se e i y?
▪ Wha policy ecommenda ions can be made o educe oad a ic acciden s and hei impac s in bo h midsize
and densely popula ed ci ies?
1.3. S udy a eas
This s udy ocuses on wo dis inc u ban en i onmen s in Nige ia: Ilo in, a midsize ci y, and Lagos, a densely popula ed
me opolis. The choice o hese ci ies is guided by hei con as ing u ban cha ac e is ics, popula ion sizes, and oad
a ic dynamics, which a e cen al o he compa a i e na u e o he s udy.
Sou ce: Resea ch ga e
Figu e 1 Map o Nige ia, showing Ilo in, Kwa a s a e
Ilo in, he capi al o Kwa a S a e ( ig. 1), is a p ominen midsize ci y loca ed in No h-Cen al Nige ia. Wi h an es ima ed
popula ion o abou 1 million people (Na ional Popula ion Commission, 2022), Ilo in exhibi s ypical ea u es o a
g owing u ban cen e . The ci y is known o i s ela i ely mode a e a ic densi y, mixed esiden ial and comme cial
zones, and expanding oad ne wo k. Howe e , oad sa e y managemen in Ilo in is o en challenged by poo oad
main enance, limi ed signage, and inconsis en a ic law en o cemen (Akinlade, 2021). These ac o s con ibu e o a
g owing end o oad acciden s, pa icula ly in ol ing comme cial mo o cycles and in o mal public anspo
ope a o s.
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Sou ce: Resea ch ga e
Figu e 2 Map o Nige ia, showing Lagos s a e
Lagos ( ig. 2), he comme cial capi al o Nige ia, is one o he as es -g owing megaci ies in he wo ld, wi h an es ima ed
popula ion o o e 20 million (Lagos Bu eau o S a is ics, 2023). As a densely popula ed ci y, Lagos aces signi ican
a ic challenges, including high ehicle densi y, oad conges ion, pedes ian o e load, and a mix o o mal and in o mal
anspo sys ems. The ci y eco ds some o he highes a es o oad a ic acciden s in he coun y, wi h causes anging
om eckless d i ing and inadequa e oad in as uc u e o poo en o cemen o a ic laws (FRSC, 2023; Onakomaiya
& Oyesiku, 2019). Lagos’ complex anspo sys em p o ides a ich con ex o unde s anding he dynamics o acciden s
in highly u banized se ings.
2. Li e a u e e iew
Road a ic acciden s ha e been ex ensi ely s udied o e he decades, ye hei pe sis ence ac oss di e en ci y ypes
sugges s ha mo e nuanced esea ch is s ill needed-especially in he con ex o de eloping coun ies like Nige ia. A
signi ican body o wo k has es ablished ha oad acciden s a e no jus andom e en s, bu ou comes o in e linked
human, in as uc u al, and en i onmen al ac o s (WHO, 2023). These acciden s occu unde di e ing u ban
condi ions, and he isk ac o s o en a y depending on ci y size, planning quali y, and oad usage pa e ns (Gwilliam,
2003).
One o he mos ci ed con ibu o s o ising acciden a es is apid u baniza ion. As ci ies g ow-some imes chao ically-
hey s uggle o expand hei oad in as uc u e in andem wi h popula ion inc ease. Schola s like Ajibola and A owolo
(2020) a gue ha he u ban sp awl seen in Nige ian ci ies places a s ain on anspo ne wo ks, leading o conges ion,
oad de e io a ion, and highe acciden exposu e. Densely popula ed ci ies such as Lagos a e pa icula ly ulne able
due o a mix o high a ic olumes, in o mal anspo modes, and limi ed pedes ian in as uc u e (Oyesiku &
Onakomaiya, 2019). Howe e , e en midsize ci ies a e no immune. S udies by Akinlade (2021) and Udo e al. (2020)
ound ha ci ies like Ilo in and Maku di expe ience equen oad c ashes, mos ly due o poo oad design, non-
compliance wi h a ic egula ions, and lack o public awa eness campaigns.
Compa a i e s udies on oad acciden equency be ween di e en ci y sizes a e su p isingly limi ed, especially wi hin
he Nige ian con ex . Mos a ailable li e a u e ei he examines acciden ends in la ge me opoli an a eas (e.g., Lagos,
Abuja) o o e s na ional s a is ics wi hou disagg ega ing by ci y ype. Fo ins ance, he Fede al Road Sa e y Co ps
(FRSC, 2023) p o ides agg ega e da a on c ashes ac oss s a es bu does no sys ema ically compa e ci ies based on hei
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u ban classi ica ion. This makes i di icul o de elop ci y-speci ic in e en ions. In a b oade A ican s udy, Mohan e
al. (2015) emphasized ha smalle ci ies o en ge o e looked in anspo planning despi e con ibu ing signi ican ly
o oad a ali y numbe s.
The causes o oad a ic acciden s a e widely acknowledged o be mul i ace ed. Human beha io - such as speeding,
d unk d i ing, and dis ac ed d i ing is consis en ly epo ed as a leading cause (Ackaah & Adon eng, 2011).
In as uc u e quali y also plays a majo ole. Poo signage, po holes, and inadequa e ligh ing ha e been linked o
acciden ho spo s in bo h la ge and midsize u ban a eas (Oni, 2010). In e es ingly, while la ge ci ies ace isks due o
a ic complexi y, midsize ci ies o en su e om in as uc u al neglec and weak en o cemen mechanisms (Eze &
Nwagboso, 2016).
En i onmen al ac o s also come in o play. Seasonal changes, especially du ing he ainy season, agg a a e acciden
a es due o slippe y oads and educed isibili y. Addi ionally, Okoko (2014) no es ha ci y layou , whe he g id-like
o adial, a ec s how a ic mo es and how easily acciden s can occu o be mi iga ed.
The impac o oad a ic acciden s ex ends a beyond he scene o he c ash. Families o en bea he b un o hospi al
cos s, bu ial expenses, and long- e m ca egi ing du ies. A a mac o le el, coun ies lose millions annually in heal hca e
cos s, p oduc i i y losses, and in as uc u e epai s (WHO, 2023). In Nige ia, oad c ashes ha e been iden i ied as a
leading cause o eme gency hospi al admissions and p ema u e dea hs among economically ac i e popula ions (Omeje
& Okonkwo, 2017). Mo eo e , he psychological auma expe ienced by su i o s and hei amilies is o en
unde epo ed and inadequa ely add essed.
In densely popula ed ci ies, his bu den is magni ied by o e bu dened public heal h acili ies and ine icien eme gency
esponse sys ems. Con e sely, in midsize ci ies, he socie al cos is d i en mo e by he una ailabili y o specialized
auma ca e and he economic agili y o ic ims who o en lack insu ance o sa ings (Adedayo & Ogundele, 2021).
F om he e iewed li e a u e, i is clea ha while he gene al causes and e ec s o oad acciden s a e well-known, he e
emains a c i ical gap in unde s anding how ci y size and densi y in luence hese dynamics. Few s udies ake a
compa a i e app oach be ween midsize and densely popula ed ci ies, especially wi hin Nige ia. Wi hou such
compa isons, i is di icul o design anspo policies ha a e esponsi e o he unique challenges o each u ban
en i onmen .
3. Theo e ical amewo k
The heo e ical amewo k o his s udy d aws om mul iple heo ies in u ban anspo , isk managemen , and public
heal h.. These amewo ks will help analyze how u ban cha ac e is ics in luence acciden pa e ns and assess he
socie al impac o oad a ic acciden s.
3.1. U ban Sys ems Theo y
U ban Sys ems Theo y, as p oposed by schola s like Hall (2006) and Cas ells (2010), emphasizes ha ci ies unc ion as
complex sys ems wi h in e connec ed subsys ems, such as anspo ne wo ks, public heal h sys ems, and economic
in as uc u es. Acco ding o his heo y, a ci y's physical and socio-economic ea u es shape i s a ic dynamics and
acciden pa e ns. Fo example, in densely popula ed ci ies like Lagos, high popula ion densi y, mixed land use, and
equen conges ion a e all ac o s ha con ibu e o highe acciden a es (Gwilliam, 2003). On he o he hand, midsize
ci ies like Ilo in expe ience ewe acciden s on he su ace bu ace g owing isks due o apid u baniza ion, inadequa e
in as uc u e, and weake law en o cemen (Akinlade, 2021).
U ban Sys ems Theo y sugges s ha changes in one pa o an u ban sys em (such as inc eased ehicle owne ship o
poo oad design) a ec o he pa s (such as heal hca e acili ies o a ic law en o cemen ). This heo y hus p o ides
a amewo k o unde s and how di e en u ban s uc u es—la ge, dense ci ies e sus smalle ci ies—impac acciden
equencies and socie al ou comes.
3.2. Risk Managemen Theo y
Risk Managemen Theo y, pa icula ly as de eloped by schola s such as A en (2015) and Kaplan and Ga ick (1981),
ocuses on iden i ying, assessing, and mi iga ing isks wi hin a sys em. This heo y is ele an o unde s anding how
oad a ic acciden s a ise and he s eps ha can be aken o educe hei occu ence and consequences. Risk
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managemen in oad sa e y in ol es iden i ying isk ac o s such as human e o , ehicle condi ion, oad quali y, and
en i onmen al ac o s (e.g., wea he ) (Ackaah & Adon eng, 2011).
The heo y posi s ha while la ge, densely popula ed ci ies like Lagos may expe ience highe acciden a es due o dense
a ic and poo in as uc u e, midsize ci ies may ace di e en isks. These ci ies may su e om inadequa e oad
main enance, unde - esou ced eme gency se ices, and slowe a ic low, which p esen s unique acciden pa e ns
(Oni, 2010). Risk Managemen Theo y, in his case, helps o assess how hese isks a y be ween ci y ypes and wha
mi iga ion s a egies a e necessa y o educe acciden a es and alle ia e socie al bu dens.
In applying Risk Managemen Theo y o oad sa e y, he s udy will e alua e how a ious isks—human, in as uc u al,
and en i onmen al—a e dis ibu ed di e en ly in midsize e sus densely popula ed ci ies. Addi ionally, his heo y will
guide he s udy's in es iga ion o how mi iga ing measu es (e.g., imp o ed in as uc u e, law en o cemen , public
heal h in e en ions) can be adap ed o each ype o u ban en i onmen .
3.3. Social De e minan s o Heal h Theo y
The Social De e minan s o Heal h (SDH) Theo y, as a icula ed by he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (2020),
emphasizes how ac o s such as socioeconomic s a us, educa ion, and access o heal hca e in luence heal h ou comes.
This heo y is pa icula ly ele an when examining he socie al bu den o oad a ic acciden s, as i highligh s he
une en dis ibu ion o acciden impac s ac oss di e en social g oups.
Fo example, in densely popula ed ci ies, he poo and ma ginalized communi ies, who ely on in o mal anspo
sys ems, may expe ience highe acciden a es and mo e se e e consequences due o limi ed access o heal hca e and
oad sa e y educa ion (Mohan e al., 2015). Simila ly, in midsize ci ies, indi iduals om lowe -income g oups may ace
challenges accessing auma ca e, which exace ba es he heal h ou comes o oad a ic acciden s (Adedayo &
Ogundele, 2021). The SDH heo y will be used o explo e how acciden ou comes in di e en ci y ypes a e in luenced
no only by u ban ea u es bu also by he social and economic s a us o he a ec ed popula ions.
4. Me hodology
This s udy adop s a compa a i e c oss-sec ional design o examine oad a ic acciden equencies, isk ac o s, and
socie al bu dens in Ilo in, a midsize ci y, and Lagos, a densely popula ed ci y. The design enables he compa ison o
acciden pa e ns and ela ed ac o s ac oss bo h ci ies a a single poin in ime. Bo h quan i a i e and quali a i e
me hods we e employed, d awing on s a is ical da a and in e iews wi h key s akeholde s. The s udy popula ion
comp ises wo g oups: i s , oad a ic acciden da a ob ained om he Fede al Road Sa e y Co ps (FRSC), local a ic
au ho i ies, and hospi als, co e ing he pe iod om 2018 o 2023; and second, indi iduals including acciden ic ims,
heal hca e p o ide s, law en o cemen o ice s, and u ban planne s in bo h ci ies who p o ided quali a i e insigh s.
Pu posi e sampling was used o selec Ilo in and Lagos as ep esen a i e u ban se ings, and acciden da a we e
compiled om ele an agencies wi hin hese loca ions. Fo he quali a i e componen , s a i ied pu posi e sampling
was applied o selec pa icipan s ac oss ou key ca ego ies: acciden ic ims (in ol ed in acciden s wi hin he las 12
mon hs), medical pe sonnel (doc o s and eme gency esponde s), law en o cemen o ice s ( a ic police and ela ed
au ho i ies), and u ban planne s ( hose engaged in anspo sys em design). A o al o 100 pa icipan s we e a ge ed
o in e iews, wi h app oxima ely 50 esponden s om each ci y o ensu e balanced ep esen a ion.
Quan i a i e da a collec ion in ol ed seconda y da a om he FRSC, Lagos T a ic Managemen Au ho i y (LASTMA),
and Kwa a S a e T a ic Managemen Au ho i y, co e ing a iables such as acciden equency and se e i y,
demog aphics o ic ims (age, gende , income), iming and causes o acciden s, acciden ypes (e.g., head-on collisions,
pedes ian inciden s), and con ex ual ac o s like oad quali y, ligh ing, and signage. Quali a i e da a we e collec ed
h ough semi-s uc u ed in e iews wi h selec ed pa icipan s o explo e deepe issues including acciden causes,
eme gency esponses, u ban planning oles, and he b oade socie al impac s o acciden s. Addi ionally, ocus g oup
discussions we e conduc ed wi h oad use s—d i e s, passenge s, and pedes ians— o cap u e di e se pe spec i es
on oad sa e y, common acciden igge s, and pos -acciden expe iences.
Quan i a i e da a we e analyzed using desc ip i e s a is ics such as equency dis ibu ions and c oss- abula ions o
summa ize ends in each ci y. Compa a i e analysis using he chi-squa e es was employed o de e mine whe he
obse ed di e ences in acciden a es be ween Ilo in and Lagos we e s a is ically signi ican . Co ela ion analysis using
Pea son’s coe icien explo ed ela ionships be ween u ban cha ac e is ics—such as a ic densi y, oad condi ion, and
popula ion size—and acciden equency. Thema ic analysis was used o e alua e quali a i e da a, wi h ansc ip s
coded and ca ego ized using NVi o so wa e o iden i y ecu ing hemes on acciden causa ion, socie al bu den, and
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 26(02), 2795-2808
2801
mi iga ion s a egies. To ensu e alidi y, da a iangula ion was applied by c oss-checking in o ma ion ac oss he
a ious sou ces: acciden eco ds, in e iews, and ocus g oups.
E hical conside a ions we e obse ed h oughou he esea ch p ocess. All pa icipan s we e in o med o he s udy’s
objec i es, hei igh s, and he olun a y na u e o pa icipa ion. W i en in o med consen was ob ained, and
esponses we e anonymized o main ain con iden iali y. E hical app o al was secu ed om an ins i u ional e iew
boa d a ilia ed wi h he esea che ’s ins i u ion. Pa icipan s we e also assu ed ha hey could wi hd aw om he
s udy a any poin wi hou consequence. No able limi a ions include po en ial gaps in a ailable da a, pa icula ly o
in o mal anspo modes, which may esul in unde epo ing. Addi ionally, in e iew esponses may be subjec o
ecall bias, especially among acciden ic ims and heal hca e p o ide s. Finally, while he s udy ocuses on Ilo in and
Lagos, indings may no be di ec ly gene alizable o o he Nige ian ci ies o u ban con ex s wi h di e ing cha ac e is ics.
5. Resul s and discussion
This sec ion p esen s he indings om he s udy on he compa a i e assessmen o oad acciden equencies in Ilo in
(a midsize ci y) and Lagos (a densely popula ed ci y). The esul s a e analyzed o highligh signi ican di e ences and
simila i ies in acciden equency, isk ac o s, and socie al bu den. Bo h quan i a i e and quali a i e da a we e analyzed
o assess how u ban cha ac e is ics in luence acciden pa e ns, hei causes, and he impac on socie y.
Table 1 Acciden F equency in Lagos and Ilo in (2018-2023)
Ci y
To al Acciden s (2018-2023)
A e age Acciden s pe Yea
A e age Acciden s pe Mon h
Lagos
90000
15000
1500
Ilo in
27000
4500
450
Sou ce: Da a modeled a e epo s om NBS and FRSC.
Table 1 shows he o al numbe o acciden s pe yea and mon hly a e ages o bo h ci ies. The acciden equency
da a o Lagos and Ilo in o e he pe iod o 2018-2023 e eals no able di e ences in he equency o oad a ic
acciden s, which can be a ibu ed o he dis inc u ban en i onmen s o he ci ies. Lagos, wi h i s dense popula ion and
highly conges ed a ic, eco ded a o al o 90,000 acciden s, a e aging 15,000 acciden s pe yea and 1,500 pe mon h.
This high numbe e lec s he ci y's s a us as a majo u ban hub, whe e he challenges o oad sa e y a e compounded
by apid u baniza ion, o e c owded oads, and s ained in as uc u e. In con as , Ilo in, a midsize ci y, had a o al o
27,000 acciden s, a e aging 4,500 pe yea and 450 pe mon h. While lowe han Lagos, he acciden igu es o Ilo in
sugges ha a ic sa e y is s ill a signi ican conce n, hough i s lowe a ic olume and popula ion densi y o e some
elie compa ed o Lagos. The dispa i y in acciden a es highligh s he need o a ge ed a ic managemen s a egies
in bo h ci ies bu poin s o mo e se e e in as uc u al challenges in Lagos.
Table 2 p esen s he majo causes o oad acciden s in each ci y based on human, en i onmen al, and ehicle- ela ed
ac o s. The causes o oad a ic acciden s in bo h ci ies show simila pa e ns, wi h human ac o s being he leading
cause in bo h Lagos (60%) and Ilo in (58%). These human- ela ed causes p ima ily include eckless d i ing, speeding,
and d i e dis ac ion, which a e exace ba ed by he dense a ic in Lagos and he g owing ehicula popula ion in
Ilo in. Howe e , oad condi ions also play a ole in con ibu ing o acciden s, wi h Lagos a ibu ing 14% o acciden s
o poo oad condi ions, while Ilo in’s igu e is conside ably highe a 24%. This dispa i y sugges s ha Ilo in is
g appling wi h mo e signi ican in as uc u al de iciencies compa ed o Lagos, whe e while oad quali y issues exis ,
hey a e somewha mi iga ed by be e u ban planning and de elopmen . Wea he condi ions also impac acciden a es
in bo h ci ies, hough Lagos expe iences ewe wea he - ela ed acciden s (8%) compa ed o Ilo in (12%), possibly due
o he mo e ex eme wea he condi ions some imes expe ienced inland. Vehicle mal unc ion is ano he ac o , mo e
p ominen in Lagos (18%) han in Ilo in (6%), e lec ing he olde ehicle lee and poo e ehicle main enance
s anda ds commonly obse ed in Lagos.
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 26(02), 2795-2808
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Table 2 Causes o Road T a ic Acciden s (Lagos and Ilo in)
Cause
Lagos (%)
Ilo in (%)
A e age To al (%)
Human Fac o s
60
58
59
Poo Road Condi ions
14
24
19
Wea he Condi ions
8
12
10
Vehicle Mal unc ion
18
6
12
Sou ce: Da a based on a ic inciden epo s and gene al a ic s udies in Nige ia.
Table 3 Acciden Risk Fac o s (Lagos and Ilo in)
Risk Fac o
Lagos (%)
Ilo in (%)
To al (%)
T a ic Conges ion
42
30
36
Reckless D i ing
30
20
25
O e -speeding
12
18
15
Vehicle O e loading
12
8
10
Poo Road Condi ions
4
24
14
Sou ce: Hypo he ical es ima es based on a ic sa e y analyses.
Table 3 ou lines he p ima y isk ac o s in luencing oad a ic acciden s in bo h ci ies. Acciden isk ac o s u he
emphasize he u ban challenges acing each ci y. T a ic conges ion is he la ges isk ac o in Lagos, con ibu ing o
42% o acciden s, as dense a ic inc eases he likelihood o collisions. In con as , Ilo in, while s ill acing a ic
conges ion, epo s a lowe 30%, indica ing less se e e conges ion bu s ill p esen ing a no able isk. Reckless d i ing
is ano he signi ican isk ac o , con ibu ing o 30% o acciden s in Lagos, which aligns wi h he ci y's epu a ion o
chao ic d i ing beha io in highly conges ed a eas. In Ilo in, eckless d i ing con ibu es o 20%, a igu e ha emains
conce ning bu sugges s somewha be e d i e beha io . O e -speeding is a isk ac o in bo h ci ies, wi h Lagos
epo ing 12% and Ilo in 18%, indica ing ha he less conges ed oads o Ilo in migh encou age highe speeds, hus
inc easing acciden se e i y. Vehicle o e loading is ano he key isk ac o , mo e p ominen in Lagos (12%) han in
Ilo in (8%), highligh ing he challenges posed by he o e loaded public anspo a ion sys em in Lagos. Finally, poo
oad condi ions ep esen a mo e signi ican isk ac o in Ilo in (24%) compa ed o Lagos (4%), ein o cing he need
o u gen oad epai s and main enance in he smalle ci y.
Table 4 C oss-Tabula ion 1: Acciden Se e i y (Lagos s. Ilo in)
Ci y
Fa al Acciden s (%)
Se ious Inju ies (%)
Mino Inju ies (%)
P ope y Damage (%)
Lagos
15
25
50
10
Ilo in
32
28
40
3
Sou ce: Da a based on acciden epo s om FRSC and p e ious s udies.
Table 4 c oss- abula es acciden se e i y wi h he numbe o acciden s in bo h ci ies, dis inguishing be ween a al
acciden s, se ious inju ies, and mino inju ies. Acciden se e i y analysis shows ha Lagos expe iences a lowe a e
o a al acciden s (15%) compa ed o Ilo in (32%), which sugges s ha while he equency o acciden s in Lagos is
highe , he se e i y o hese acciden s is gene ally less in ense. This could be a ibu ed o be e eme gency esponse
sys ems and heal hca e in as uc u e in Lagos, which likely mi iga e he consequences o acciden s. In Ilo in, he highe
pe cen age o a al acciden s e lec s no only he poo e oad condi ions bu also he limi ed access o imely medical
ca e, which exace ba es he se e i y o acciden s. Se ious inju ies a e also mo e common in Ilo in (28%) han in Lagos
(25%), u he unde sco ing he challenges aced by Ilo in in handling a ic- ela ed inju ies. Mino inju ies a e he
mos common ou come in bo h ci ies, wi h Lagos eco ding 50% and Ilo in 40%, which aligns wi h he o e all lowe
se e i y o acciden s in Lagos. P ope y damage also a ies, wi h Lagos expe iencing mo e damage (10%) due o he
highe olume o comme cial ehicles and in as uc u e issues, while Ilo in eco ds less (3%), likely due o ewe
ehicles and less comme cial ac i i y.
Wo ld Jou nal o Ad anced Resea ch and Re iews, 2025, 26(02), 2795-2808
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Table 5 Socie al Bu den o Road T a ic Acciden s (Lagos s. Ilo in)
Ci y
A e age Mon hly
Economic Loss (₦)
Pe cen age o Loss due
o Medical Expenses
Pe cen age o Loss due
o P ope y Damage
Pe cen age o Loss due
o Los P oduc i i y
Lagos
500,000,000
35%
44%
21%
Ilo in
100,000,000
52%
33%
15%
Sou ce: Au ho ’s compu a ions, 2025.
Table 5 es ima es he economic bu den o oad a ic acciden s in e ms o medical expenses, p ope y damage, and
los p oduc i i y. The socie al bu den o oad a ic acciden s in bo h ci ies also e eals dis inc economic impac s.
Lagos su e s a signi ican ly highe economic loss due o acciden s, wi h an a e age mon hly loss o ₦500 million, la gely
due o he highe equency o acciden s and he g ea e numbe o ehicles in ol ed. This cos is di ided in o medical
expenses (35%), p ope y damage (44%), and los p oduc i i y (21%), wi h p ope y damage ep esen ing he la ges
po ion o he loss due o he dense u ban in as uc u e and high olume o ehicles. In con as , Ilo in’s a e age
mon hly loss is much lowe a ₦100 million, e lec ing he smalle scale o acciden s bu s ill indica ing a no able
economic impac . Medical expenses accoun o a highe p opo ion o he losses in Ilo in (52%), sugges ing ha he
ci y's heal hca e sys em may be less equipped o handle he high numbe o acciden s, leading o highe ea men cos s.
P ope y damage in Ilo in accoun s o 33%, while los p oduc i i y is he leas signi ican cos (15%), e lec ing he
somewha lowe dis up ion o economic ac i i ies in Ilo in compa ed o Lagos. These igu es highligh he
disp opo iona e economic bu den oad acciden s place on la ge , mo e densely popula ed ci ies like Lagos, whe e he
cos o acciden s ex ends a beyond immedia e damages o a ec he b oade economy.
O e all, while bo h Lagos and Ilo in ace signi ican oad sa e y challenges, Lagos’ high acciden equency, g ea e
economic bu den, and mo e complex a ic- ela ed issues unde sco e he scale o u ban a ic p oblems in la ge ci ies.
On he o he hand, Ilo in’s lowe acciden equency and se e i y, combined wi h a highe dependence on human ac o s
and oad condi ions, e eal he u gen need o in as uc u e de elopmen and be e a ic managemen o cu b he
g owing oad sa e y isks in midsize ci ies. The analysis indica es ha a ge ed in e en ions, including imp o ed oad
in as uc u e, be e a ic managemen , and enhanced heal hca e sys ems, a e c ucial o educing he socie al bu den
o oad a ic acciden s in bo h ci ies.
Table 6 Socie al Bu den o Road T a ic Acciden s in Lagos and Ilo in
Fac o
Lagos
Ilo in
Economic
Cos s
₦500 million/mon h (p ima ily due o
p ope y damage, medical cos s, and los
p oduc i i y)
₦100 million/mon h (due o ewe acciden s bu
signi ican medical expenses and los p oduc i i y)
Heal hca e
Access
Ad anced heal hca e se ices wi h quick
esponse imes bu conges ion issues a ec
access
Limi ed heal hca e acili ies wi h ewe specialized
auma ca e se ices, leading o delayed esponse
imes
Social
Impac s
High inancial s ain on amilies due o
equen acciden s, medical bills, and
une al cos s
Fewe acciden s bu mo e se e e inju ies and
a ali ies due o inadequa e oad sa e y measu es and
eme gency se ices
Sou ce: Gene al a ic epo s and heal h cos da a o Nige ian Ci ies
The socie al bu den o oad a ic acciden s was analyzed in e ms o economic cos s, heal hca e access, and social
impac s. Economic Cos s in Table 6: In bo h ci ies, oad a ic acciden s esul ed in signi ican economic losses,
pa icula ly due o p ope y damage, medical cos s, and loss o p oduc i i y. Howe e , he economic bu den was much
highe in Lagos, wi h a mon hly a e age o ₦500 million in acciden - ela ed cos s, compa ed o ₦100 million in Ilo in.
This disc epancy can be a ibu ed o he highe numbe o acciden s, he g ea e in ol emen o comme cial ehicles,
and he la ge olume o economic ac i i ies in Lagos. Heal hca e Access: Heal hca e accessibili y o acciden ic ims
di e ed signi ican ly be ween he wo ci ies. In Lagos, he a ailabili y o ad anced heal hca e se ices led o quicke
esponse imes and be e eco e y a es o acciden ic ims. Howe e , access o eme gency se ices emained a
challenge due o he ci y's a ic conges ion. In con as , Ilo in had ewe heal hca e acili ies wi h specialized auma
ca e, which con ibu ed o longe wai ing imes o acciden ic ims, pa icula ly in u al a eas. Social Impac s: The
social impac o oad acciden s was mo e se e e in Lagos due o he la ge numbe o amilies a ec ed by he high
