IPR Policy B ie
Sep embe 2025
G een shoo s o hope?
Inc eased op imism abou
u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y
A eas
D Jo Da ies, P o esso Ma Dickson, P o esso Michael Donnelly,
P o esso Ce i B own, P o esso Nadia Siddiqui, P o esso Nick Pea ce,
P o esso Rich Ha is, D Elle Young and D Ch is Cunningham
The UK go e nmen ’s Oppo uni y A eas
p og amme, which an om 2017 o 2022,
a ge ed 12 social mobili y ‘cold spo s’ ac oss
England. Since 2024, esea che s om he
uni e si ies o Ba h, B is ol and Du ham ha e
been conduc ing a £1.5 million e alua ion o
his in e en ion.
This e alua ion examines he e ec s ha he
p og amme had on hese geog aphic places
and how u u e a ea-based in e en ions can
be bes designed and implemen ed.
This i s policy b ie uses na ionally
ep esen a i e su ey da a o look a how he
in e en ion a ec ed young people’s hopes
and con idence o hei u u e li es in e ms
o educa ion and wo k.
2IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
Key poin s
‒ Na ionally, o e he las 15 yea s, he e has been a downwa d end in
op imism in young people (King’s T us , 2025).1 The e is a u he impo an
egional dimension o his end, wi h young people in London mo e
con iden abou hei u u es han hose li ing ou side he capi al (S a ou,
2025).2 This is likely due o hei highe educa ional ou comes and g ea e
job p ospec s and access o oppo uni ies (Hol -Whi e, Cullinane and
Mon acu e, 2025).3
‒ Ou esea ch gi es some cause o hope. Using Di e ence-in-Di e ences
(DiD) analysis – a s a is ical echnique ha enables he causal impac o a
policy o be es ima ed – i shows ha young people in a eas ha ecei ed
suppo as pa o he Oppo uni y A eas (OA) p og amme ha e bucked
he na ional downwa d end and exhibi inc eased op imism o u u e
s udy and wo k since he p og amme’s in oduc ion. This is especially
ue o hei pe cei ed likelihood o gaining aining o a uni e si y place
and o success ully inishing hese. Fo bo h o hese measu es, we
obse e an inc ease o a ound 15 pe cen age poin s (pp) on a e age (on
a sel -assessed scale om 0-100%) in he OAs ela i e o he simila ly
disad an aged compa ison (non-OA p og amme) a eas.
‒ As he na ional downwa d end in op imism is pa icula ly ma ked in he
compa ison a eas (CAs), his s udy/wo k op imism boos is pa icula ly
pe inen , sugges ing ha he p og amme may ha e played an impo an
mi iga ing ole.
‒ The s onges op imism boos is obse ed in pos -indus ial and coas al
a eas a ge ed by he OA p og amme. As wi h he b oade OA ends, hese
inc eases a e pa icula ly appa en o young people’s pe cei ed likelihood
o gaining aining o a uni e si y place (a e age 17 pp inc ease o hose
in coas al OAs and 15 pp inc ease o pos -indus ial OAs ela i e o simila
non-p og amme a eas) and o success ully inishing hese (a e age 18 pp
inc ease in coas al OAs, 17 pp inc ease o pos -indus ial OAs). The e is
also a no able inc ease in hei pe cei ed likelihood o inding a sui able job
(15 pp o indi iduals in coas al OAs, 10 pp o hose in pos -indus ial OAs).
‒ The da a we d aw on come om he UK Household Longi udinal S udy
‘Unde s anding Socie y’, he la ges longi udinal household panel s udy o
i s kind wi h a na ionally ep esen a i e sample o app oxima ely 40,000
households. Ou esea ch ocuses only on esponses om he pe iod 2009-
2024 o indi iduals aged 16-21.
1 King’s T us (2025). The King’s T us TK Maxx You h Index 2025. A ailable he e: h ps://www.
kings us .o g.uk/abou -us/news- iews/you hindex2025
2 S a ou, A (2025). Young people ou side London ea hey’ll ‘ne e succeed’ as egional op imism hi s
new low. The Independen , 27 Feb ua y. A ailable he e: h ps://www.independen .co.uk/news/uk/
home-news/kings- us -you h-index-su ey-london-po smou h-young-people-b2697782.h ml
3 Hol -Whi e E, Cullinane C and Mon acu e R (2025). The Oppo uni y Index. Repo o he Su on T us .
A ailable he e: h ps://www.su on us .com/ou - esea ch/ he-oppo uni y-index/
3IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
‒ The da a we use p o ide only a measu e o young people’s expec a ions,
so a his poin we canno say whe he he inc eased op imism obse ed
among young people in OAs is ela ed o inc eased li e chances. Fu u e
esea ch wi hin he F om he Cen e o he Pe iphe y p ojec will seek
o explo e he associa ions be ween his inc eased op imism and la e
ou comes. We will also seek o build g ea e unde s anding o he ac o s
d i ing his op imism boos , gene a ing impo an insigh s o aising young
people’s op imism elsewhe e.
‒ The inc eased s udy/wo k op imism obse ed in young people li ing in
OAs sugges s ha place-based in e en ions can play an impo an ole in
building young people’s con idence abou hei u u es.
‒ The especially ma ked di ides in op imism be ween young people li ing
in OAs and hose in he simila ly disad an aged compa ison a eas,
howe e , unde sco e he need o u u e social mobili y ini ia i es o each
disad an aged young people ac oss all a eas, no jus hose in selec ed
OAs. This could be achie ed by g ea e use o F ee School Meal (FSM)-
ocused in e en ions.
‒ The mo e subdued s udy/wo k op imism in u al OAs and he pa icula ly
p onounced downwa d end in op imism in he compa ison a eas u he
highligh he p essing need o add ess he s uc u al ba ie s o oppo uni y
o young people li ing in mo e pe iphe al places, including poo
in as uc u e and mo e limi ed educa ion and employmen p ospec s.
In oduc ion
The e is no doub ha add essing he majo geog aphic di ides ha ha e
long mi ed he UK emains one o he bigges public policy challenges o
ou ime. O e ecen decades, successi e go e nmen s ha e epea edly
pou ed money in o new policy p og ammes aimed a g owing local
economies. These p og ammes ha e had limi ed, i any, success.
Since 2024, esea che s om he uni e si ies o Ba h, B is ol and Du ham
ha e been ca ying ou a majo e alua ion o he Oppo uni y A eas
p og amme, a £108 million place-based in e en ion ha was designed o
ackle geog aphic di ides in educa ion and skills in England. Announced in
2016, i an om 2017 o 2022 and ocused on imp o ing young people’s
ou comes in 12 social mobili y ‘cold spo s’, a mix o pos -indus ial, u al and
coas al a eas ac oss he coun y.
A ea-based ini ia i es o his kind ha e a long his o y in he UK, om Ha old
Wilson’s Educa ion P io i y A eas in he 1960s, o New Labou ’s swa he o
p og ammes du ing he 1990s. Bu he e is a long-s anding policy deba e
4IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
abou he ela i e me i s o place-based ( a ge ing pa icula places) e sus
people-based ( a ge ing pa icula g oups ac oss all places) ini ia i es.
Fo he i s ime, we use a quasi-expe imen al me hodology o assess he
impac o he Oppo uni y A eas p og amme, seeking o isola e he e ec s
o he in e en ion om o he mi iga ing ac o s and p oduce indings
on he causal e ec o he policy. In doing so, we will build an e idence
base on wha wo ks in a ea-based in e en ions and how u u e policy
p og ammes should be designed, deli e ed and de eloped.
Like any o he in e en ion, i s impac can be conside ed ac oss mul iple
possible ou comes – o example, educa ional a ainmen , school
a endance, social mobili y, ea nings, heal h, and c ime. In his i s o a
se ies o policy b ie s, we use na ionally ep esen a i e su ey da a o
conside how he in e en ion a ec ed young people’s hopes o he u u e
and hei pe cei ed con idence in doing well educa ionally and in he wo ld
o wo k.
Policy con ex
O e he las 15 yea s, op imism among UK you h o hei u u es has
been in decline. Mo eo e , he e is an impo an egional dimension o his
end, wi h he 2025 edi ion o he King’s T us ’s You h Index4 – an annual
esea ch epo measu ing he a i udes and expec a ions o young people
aged 16-25 in he UK – indica ing ha op imism in he egions has hi a new
low. Compa ably, young people in London a e mo e op imis ic abou hei
inancial u u es, job p ospec s and men al heal h han he na ional a e age
(S a ou, 2025).5
The UK is one o he mos spa ially unbalanced ad anced economies in he
wo ld, wi h s iking egional dispa i ies be ween London and he Sou h Eas
and he es o he coun y wi h ega d o job oppo uni ies and ea nings.
Fo example, he a e age annual wage in London is almos £20,000 highe ,
and in he Sou h Eas nea ly £13,000 highe , han in he UK’s lowes -paid
locali ies such as Bu nley, Hudde s ield and Middlesb ough (Cen e o
Ci ies, 2025).6
4 King’s T us (2025). The King’s T us TK Maxx You h Index 2025. A ailable he e: h ps://www.
kings us .o g.uk/abou -us/news- iews/you hindex2025
5 S a ou A (2025). Young people ou side London ea hey’ll ‘ne e succeed’ as egional op imism hi s
new low. The Independen , 27 Feb ua y. A ailable he e: h ps://www.independen .co.uk/news/uk/
home-news/kings- us -you h-index-su ey-london-po smou h-young-people-b2697782.h ml
6 Cen e o Ci ies (2025). Ci ies Ou look 2025. A ailable he e: h ps://www.cen e o ci ies.o g/
publica ion/ci ies-ou look-2025/
5IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
The e a e simila ly s a k geog aphic gaps in educa ion. Fo example, nea ly
60% o wo ke s and job seeke s in London hold deg ee-le el quali ica ions
(in se e al bo oughs he igu e is o e 70%), compa ed wi h ewe han 30%
o people in coas al owns like Blackpool, pos -indus ial places such as
Doncas e and u al locali ies like No h Eas Lincolnshi e.7 These spa ial
dispa i ies in educa ion and employmen a e likely o play signi ican oles
in he lowe le els o op imism obse ed among young people li ing ou side
London.
The Oppo uni y A eas p og amme was one go e nmen in e en ion
aimed a ackling hese geog aphic imbalances, and ou F om he Cen e
o he Pe iphe y p ojec is a h ee-yea mixed-me hods e alua ion o
he p og amme’s impac s. This policy b ie ocuses on ou analysis o
Unde s anding Socie y da a o he pe iod 2009-2024 (p e and pos he
in oduc ion o he in e en ion) and explo es ou indings o inc eased
op imism o u u e s udy and wo k among young people li ing in OAs (in
s a k con as o indings o dec eases na ionally and especially in a eas
wi h simila ly en enched dep i a ion). This sugges s ha he p og amme
may ha e had an impo an ole in mi iga ing agains simila dec eases in
op imism in he OAs.
Me hodology
This esea ch d aws on da a om he UK Household Longi udinal S udy
‘Unde s anding Socie y’ om he pe iod 2009-2024 o indi iduals aged
16-21. I compa ed esponses o ques ions measu ing young people’s
expec a ions om indi iduals li ing in he 12 oppo uni y a eas (OAs) wi h
hose obse ed na ionwide and among indi iduals li ing in 19 simila social
mobili y cold spo s.
When designing he OA p og amme, he Depa men o Educa ion (D E)
c ea ed a longlis o 32 a eas, selec ing hose in he weakes pe o ming
sex iles o bo h he Social Mobili y Commission’s Social Mobili y Index (SMI)
and he D E’s own Achie ing Excellence A eas (AEA) index. This lis was
la e na owed down by he D E and 13 Local Au ho i y Dis ic s (LADs)8
we e selec ed as OAs, a ge ing a mix o coas al, pos -indus ial and u al
a eas sp ead h oughou England. The 19 a eas we compa e agains in
his b ie , e e ed o as ‘compa ison a eas’ (CAs), a e hose om he D E
longlis ha we e no selec ed o be OAs. As hey a e a eas wi h simila ly
7 O ice o Na ional S a is ics (2023): Wo k o ce quali ica ion le els ac oss England and Wales
da a: Census 2021. A ailable he e: h ps://www.ons.go .uk/peoplepopula ionandcommuni y/
educa ionandchildca e/da ase s/wo k o cequali ica ionle elsac ossenglandandwalesda acensus2021
8 One oppo uni y a ea, Fenland and Eas Camb idgeshi e, con ained wo LADs.
6IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
en enched dep i a ion o hose a ge ed by he OA p og amme, hey o e
a good poin o compa ison – he ends we obse e he e a e likely o be
e lec i e o hose we would expec o see in he OAs had hey no been in
eceip o he in e en ion.
This policy b ie ocuses on ou analysis o esponses o ou ques ions:
‒ How likely is i ha you will gain aining o a uni e si y place in you
p e e ed ield?
‒ How likely is i ha you will success ully inish you aining o uni e si y
s udies?
‒ How likely is i ha you will ind a job in you ield?
‒ How likely is i ha you will be success ul and ge ahead?
These ques ions o m pa o he ‘Young Adul s’ module o he
Unde s anding Socie y main su ey and a e asked o indi iduals aged 16-
21. Fo each o hese ques ions, indi iduals a e asked o ank how likely i
is ha he e en in ques ion will happen on a scale om 0% o 100%, whe e
0% means ‘No chance o happening’ and 100% means ‘To ally likely o
happen’. These ques ions a e included in he ‘Young Adul s’ module e e y
wo yea s, so wi hin ou esponses some indi iduals ha e answe ed hese
ques ions mo e han once. Mos indi iduals in ou sample ha e answe ed
hem only once (app oxima ely 50%) o wice (app oxima ely 30%).
Table 1. Unde s anding Socie y ques ions and numbe s o
obse a ions
Ques ions(A-D) To al
obs.
OA
obs.
CA
obs.
To alobs.
ac oss
OAs&CAs
Obs.
na ionwide
(excl.OAs)
A - How likely is i ha
you will gain aining o
a uni e si y place in you
p e e ed ield?
14,552 801 714 1,515 13,751
B - How likely is i ha
you will success ully inish
you aining o uni e si y
s udies?
16,419 898 779 1,677 15,521
C - How likely is i ha you
will ind a job in you ield?
16,702 908 800 1,708 15,794
D - How likely is i ha you
will be success ul and ge
ahead?
17,387 944 854 1,798 16,443
7IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
Gi en he ocus o he Oppo uni y A eas p og amme on pos -indus ial,
coas al and u al a eas, esponses by place ype we e also explo ed wi hin
ou OA/CA compa isons.
Table 2. Numbe o obse a ions by ques ion (A-D) and place ype
Ques ion
Place ype A B C D
OA - Ru al 85 95 95 106
CA - Ru al 170 173 176 198
OA - Coas al 107 120 125 131
CA - Coas al 119 136 130 145
OA - Pos -indus ial 609 683 688 707
CA - Pos -indus ial 425 470 494 511
To al 1,515 1,677 1,708 1,798
The maps on he ollowing page show he place ype and loca ions o he 12
OAs and 19 CAs.
The analyses we p esen use a Di e ence-in-Di e ences (DiD) app oach,
a s a is ical me hod ha enables es ima ion o he causal e ec o a policy
– in ou case an a ea becoming an OA – on esponden s’ answe s o he
ou likelihood ques ions (A-D). We do his by compa ing he changes in
esponses be ween hose li ing in OAs and hose li ing in ou CAs be o e
(2009-2016) and a e (2017-2024) he implemen a ion o he Oppo uni y
A eas p og amme. The key idea is ha he change obse ed in he CAs is a
good app oxima ion o he change we would ha e seen in he OAs wi hou
he p og amme, so he di e ence in he obse ed di e ences o e ime
be ween he a eas should isola e he e ec o he p og amme.
8IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
Oppo uni y a eas map Compa ison a eas map
Maps made wi h QGIS. Coas al = blue, u al = g een, pos -indus ial = yellow.
Oppo uni y a eas mi iga ed he na ional
downwa d end
Compa ing young people’s esponses o he ou u u e likelihood
ques ions (A-D) o he pe iod 2009-2016 (be o e implemen a ion o he
OA p og amme) and 2017-2024 (a e implemen a ion o he p og amme)
iden i ied a consis en end. Op imism o h ee o he ou expec a ions
ose on a e age ac oss young people li ing in OAs in he pos -
implemen a ion pe iod compa ed wi h a no able dec ease in op imism on
a e age o all expec a ions in he same ime pe iod o hose li ing in he
19 CAs. Ques ion D, ‘being success ul/ge ing ahead’, was he excep ion o
he end o OAs, whe e i emained s able.
The op imism boos in OAs was especially ue o young people’s pe cei ed
likelihood o gaining aining o a uni e si y place and o success ully
inishing hese. Fo bo h o hese measu es, we obse ed a nine pe cen age
9IPR Policy B ie : G een shoo s o hope? Inc eased op imism abou u u e s udy and wo k in
England’s Oppo uni y A eas
poin inc ease on a e age in he OAs, which coupled wi h he obse ed
i e o six pp alls in he CAs ga e policy e ec es ima es o a ound 15 pp
o hese ou comes. Bo h hese ou comes ha e a s anda d de ia ion o jus
o e 30 pp and so hese es ima ed e ec s o he p og amme ep esen
an e ec size o app oxima ely hal a s anda d de ia ion, which is a la ge
e ec .
Mean likelihood sco es o indi iduals li ing in oppo uni y a eas and
compa ison a eas p e and pos he in oduc ion o he OA
p og amme
Conduc ing he same compa isons on a na ional scale (OAs e sus he
es o England) also e ealed lowe op imism on a e age o each o he
measu es in he second pe iod o hose li ing ou side OAs. This sugges s
ha he all in op imism seen in he 19 CAs is e lec i e o a b oade end
ac oss he coun y. Indeed, his na ionwide pessimism end is mi o ed in
o he da a sou ces looking a young people’s a i udes and expec a ions.
Fo example, in he annual King’s T us You h Index, in which a sample o
young people (4,285 in 2025 index)9 a e asked o p o ide happiness and
con idence a ings in nine domains, we obse e a h ee poin d op in he
a e age o e all index sco e ac oss he pos -OA implemen a ion pe iod
9 King’s T us (2025). The King’s T us TK Maxx You h Index 2025. A ailable he e: h ps://www.
kings us .o g.uk/abou -us/news- iews/you hindex2025
0
20
40
60
80
100
Compa ison a ea Oppo uni y a ea
Pe cei ed likelihood o gaining aining/uni place
P e Pos
0
20
40
60
80
100
Compa ison a ea Oppo uni y a ea
Pe cei ed likelihood o success ully inishing
s udies
P e Pos
0
20
40
60
80
100
Compa ison a ea Oppo uni y a ea
Pe cei ed likelihood o inding a sui able job
P e Pos
0
20
40
60
80
100
Compa ison a ea Oppo uni y a ea
Pe cei ed likelihood o being success ul
P e Pos
