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ANALYSIS OF THE UNDERWRITING PROCESS IN COMMERCIAL BANKS OF
UZBEKISTAN
Bobojono Khu sand Qadamo ich
“IPOTEKA-BANK” OTP GROUP, Senio Manage
Independen esea che a Tashken In e na ional Uni e si y.
Phone: +998909246801, E-mail: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac . In assessing he c edi isks o comme cial banks, i is impo an o analyze unde w i ing
p ocesses in o de o educe he sha e o p oblem loans in hei loan po olio and inc ease he le el
o p o i abili y. Unde w i ing is an assessmen o he c edi wo hiness o a bo owe , ha is, an
indi idual o legal en i y, analyze c edi isk and make decisions. This a icle highligh s he ole and
impo ance o unde w i ing p ocesses in comme cial banks in ou epublic.
Keywo ds: bank, isk, unde w i ing, c edi wo hiness, loan, po olio.
INTRODUCTION
Comme cial banks a e one o he main elemen s o he inancial sys em, hey play an impo an ole
in he s abili y and de elopmen o he economy. Banks a e ac i ely in ol ed in g an ing loans and
accep ing deposi s. As is known, in banking p ac ice, p o i mainly consis s o in e es ecei ed on
loans g an ed.
Es ablishing quali y lending p ac ices in comme cial banks equi es e ec i e c edi isk managemen
and imp o emen o unde w i ing p ocesses. P ope ly o ganized ini ial loan moni o ing, i.e. he
p ocess o e iewing and app o ing loan applica ions, will lead o a educ ion in he numbe o
p oblem loans ha subsequen ly a ise. Risk managemen is e y impo an no only a he ansac ion
le el (e.g., loan app o al, ma ke ope a ions), bu also a he po olio le el (de elopmen o c edi
and deposi policies, selec ion o he op imal loan po olio, iden i ica ion o possible losses,
insu ance).
LITERATURE ANALYSIS ON THE TOPIC
The issue o lending and ela ed isk managemen has been s udied in he scien i ic wo ks and books
o o eign economis s O.I. La ushin, T.L. Myagko , I. Ta aso , H. Vann G üning, and B ayo ich
B a ano ich [1].
Russian economis Nadezhda Nikulina sugges s in he scien i ic wo k ha unde w i ing is an in eg al
pa o isk managemen , ha bank unde w i ing is one o he ways o educe bank isks in lending
[2]. – she no ed.
Oleg Lo ushin de ines: “The main componen o any bank's c edi isk managemen is he
iden i ica ion o isk in lending. C edi isk e lec s he amoun o c edi isk ha may a ise, depending
on inancial and ope a ional capabili ies, g ow h a es, and p o i abili y p ospec s o in e es ed
pa ies,” [3].
Acco ding o ano he local economis , Sh. Abdullaye a, "The isks ha he Single Comme cial Bank
co e s o he economy a e ela ed o i s speci ic ac i i ies and i s abili y o e ec i ely manage he
cash lows passing h ough i "[4].
Acco ding o economis M. Kulme o , " he c edi isk o banks is he sum o bank equi emen s in
e ms o loans, ca ego ized acco ding o ce ain c i e ia based on a ious c edi isks." [5].
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Ano he local economis , F. Kholmama o , in his scien i ic esea ch ga e a mo e de ailed de ini ion
o c edi se ice and c edi p oduc , namely, "c edi se ice is he esul o a bank's a ge ed c edi
ac i i y, which consis s in c ea ing a o able condi ions o sa is ying he clien 's c edi needs when
ca ying ou c edi ope a ions in o de o make a p o i ." [6].
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The me hodologies used in his esea ch s udy a e se e al, including compa ison, econome ics,
g ouping, analysis, syn hesis, and s a is ical analysis.
Speaking abou he me hodologies, o cou se, ma hema ical and s a is ical analysis me hods s and ou
om hose widely used in his opic, since he c ea ion o he le el o isk equi es ma hema ical
calcula ions and compa a i e exp ession. The esea ch also used me hods o analysis and syn hesis.
This is especially no iceable in he p ocess o using a ious models. In addi ion, he esea ch widely
used he me hod o ac o analysis and used i mainly o de e mine wha a ec s he inal indica o s.
ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
Unde w i ing p ocesses in comme cial banks o Uzbekis an began o ake shape a e 2017, including
he ans o ma ion o s a e-owned banks and hei ans e o a cen alized lending sys em o e he
pas 5 yea s, wi h a numbe o e o s being made o sell hem o o eign in es o s. These p ocesses
and econome ic analyses we e examined in he s udy using he example o he join -s ock
comme cial mo gage bank "Ipo eka-bank".
Comme cial banks, he unde w i ing depa men has i s own hie a chy, independen o o he
depa men s and di ec managemen o unde w i ing should no o e lap in any way wi h he heads o
o he c edi depa men s (o business uni s), and any means o exe ing p essu e on unde w i e s, o
example, by on o ice s a , go e ning bodies, cus ome s, e c., o in luence decision-making, a e
minimized.
Ways o imp o e he c edi isk con ol sys em in he banking sys em. The de elopmen o a model
o o ganizing a c edi isk managemen sys em in banking p ac ices should be ca ied ou using he
s uc u e o bank b anches based on he modula p inciple. In pa icula , he c edi isk managemen
s uc u e in he sys em o JSCB "Ipo eka-bank" is o ganized as ollows.
Figu e 1. The main s uc u e o isk managemen bodies es ablished a “Ipo eka-bank” [7].
In e ac ion o comme cial bank depa men s di ec ly a ec s he managemen o bank isks . To
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inc ease he e ec i eness o hei in e ac ion, a specialized Risk Managemen Commi ee, depic ed
as a “bus” in he o ganiza ional cha , has been in oduced o coo dina e goals wi hin he bank's
s uc u e, manage and con ol he le el o bank ac i i y, including c edi isks. This commi ee i sel
mus be accoun able and di ec ly subo dina e o he Bank's Supe iso y Boa d.
A he bank we can see con lic ing goals be ween business s a and unde w i e s , which in any case,
leads o many applica ions being ejec ed while ying o ul ill he lending plan .
his ega d, he C edi Commi ee is he a bi e o esol ing con lic si ua ions , and he inal
accep ance o ejec ion o he loan is made by all au ho ized pe sons o he C edi Commi ee . The
decision o he C edi Commi ee mus con i m he co espondence be ween he le el o lending isk
and he expec ed p o i abili y o he ansac ion , ha is, he epaymen o his loan mus be highe
han signi ican isks. C edi limi s a e de e mined by he Bank's C edi Policy in acco dance wi h he
powe s. The inal decision is made in acco dance wi h he powe s (limi s) speci ied below, as o he
da e o he decision o p o ide c edi se ices in he sys em o JSMB “Ipo eka-bank”.
I we look a he s uc u e o asse s o JSCB “Ipo eka-bank” in Uzbekis an o 2021-2025 , we can
see ha he le el o di e si ica ion is nega i e . The sha e o loans in he bank's asse s was 82.6
pe cen in 2020 , while in 2024 his indica o dec eased by 18.5 poin s and amoun ed o 64.1 pe cen .
Taking in o accoun he abo e ci cums ances, we ound i necessa y o de elop app op ia e scien i ic
p oposals and p ac ical ecommenda ions based on econome ic analysis o hese ope a ions and he
ac o s a ec ing hem, ega dless o he le el o de elopmen o unde w i ing p ocesses and
ope a ions in comme cial banks . Based on his, in his pa ag aph o he disse a ion wo k, we will
conduc an econome ic analysis on he example o he c edi po olio o one o he comme cial
banks o ou coun y, JSMB “Ipo eka-bank”, and o mula e app op ia e de elopmen s .
In he s udy, a eg ession model was buil based on a ime se ies in o de o empi ically analyze he
ac o s ha cha ac e ize he dynamics o changes in he loan po olio o JSCIB “Ipo eka-bank”. Fo
he analysis, a s a is ical da abase was o med based on economic indica o s co e ing he pe iod o
31 da es (2019:2024) . Thei desc ip i e s a is ics a e p esen ed in he able below.
Table 1. Desc ip i e s a is ics o indica o s [9]
Va iables
Obse a ions
Median
S d. De .
Minimum
Minimu
m
Loan po olio
31
29366.86
5553,644
19486.17
36298.19
Asse s
31
40546 .45
7928,301
23587.8
52069.43
Bank capi al
31
5585,762
1366,274
3730,261
7754,783
C edi ese e
31
842.6678
386.9464
306.5893
1779,112
P oblem loan
31
586.5417
472.5784
73.65977
1550,551
Deposi s
31
14931.3
5011,721
7787.31
25691.69
I we pay a en ion o he desc ip i e s a is ics o he selec ed s a is ical indica o s , hen he a e age
loan po olio is 29,366.86 billion soums, wi h a minimum alue o 19,486.17 billion soums , and he
maximum alue was 36298.19 billion soums. The s anda d de ia ion is 5553.644 , which indica es
ha he loan po olio mo es in a ela i ely s able ange. A high loan po olio inc eases he cos o
ob aining a loan, which may nega i ely a ec he loan olume.
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Figu e 2. G aphical ep esen a ion o indica o s [10]
The g aph abo e shows ha o e ime, a s eady g ow h end is obse ed, ha is, he olume o loans
issued by he bank is inc easing yea by yea . This indica es he ac i e c edi policy o he bank and
he g owing demand o loans in he economy.
Table 2. Reg ession o ac o s a ec ing he loan po olio
model [11]
The equa ion o a mul i a ia e eg ession model assessing he impac o asse size, bank capi al, and
c edi ese es on he size o he loan po olio:
He e:
size o bank loan po olio
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bank's asse size
au ho ized capi al
loan ese es
andom e o
The econome ic model is o ming. This means ha he a iables selec ed in he model
explain 97.7 pe cen o he changes in he size o he bank's loan po olio. On his basis, his model
has high explana o y powe and is conside ed eliable o analysis.
The model, which is equal o , explains 97.7% o he changes in he size o he bank's
loan po olio. - The model is gene ally signi ican . The
bank's asse s and au ho ized capi al a e 0.000 - hese ac o s a e signi ican . The loan loss
p o ision a io is nega i e and signi ican - his ac o is nega i ely a ec ing he loan po olio.
Acco ding o he esul s o he eg ession model, bank asse s and capi al ha e a s a is ically signi ican
and posi i e impac on he size o he loan po olio. In pa icula , an inc ease in he size o asse s by
one uni can inc ease he loan po olio by an a e age o 0.5673 uni s, and a one-uni inc ease in
capi al by 1.4208 uni s. A he same ime, an inc ease in he size o loan ese es has a nega i e impac
on he size o he loan po olio, ha is, when his ac o inc eases by 1 uni , he loan po olio is likely
o dec ease by an a e age o 3.2677 uni s.
Table 4 Resul s o he ARIMA(1,1,1) model o he c edi po olio indica o [12]
he ARIMA(1,1,1) model o he loan po olio a iable based on 59 obse a ions om Janua y 2020
o No embe 2024. The o e all signi icance le el o he model is high
, indica ing ha he model is s a is ically eliable.
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The coe icien o a ia ion is 27,056.93 , which is signi ican a he 1 pe cen le el .
This ep esen s he o e all g ow h end in he loan po olio, meaning ha he g ow h a e in he
sys em is s able.
The alue o he pa ame e is 0.9981 , which is e y close o 1. This indica es ha he ime
se ies in he loan po olio is s ongly co ela ed wi h pas alues . This means ha changes in loan
olume a e o med in almos comple e ha mony wi h he esul s o p e ious mon hs.
The posi i e and signi ican coe icien o , howe e , indica es ha
c edi ac i i y is subjec o andom shocks and sho - e m changes . This sugges s ha sho - e m
poli ical o mac oeconomic changes in he banking sys em can also a ec he size o he loan
po olio.
The s anda d e o indica es he a e age de ia ion o he andom e o s in he model.
This alue con i ms ha he accu acy o he model is high enough.
Fo ecas ing Ipo eka bank’s loan po olio
De eloped o he mon hly pe iods om Janua y 1, 2026 o Janua y 1, 2030 .
The s abili y and s a iona i y o he ARIMA (1,0,1) model we e es ed in acco dance wi h he equi ed
condi ions, and i was ecommended ha his model could be used as he mos op imal op ion o
o ecas ing u u e g ow h a es o he loan po olio.
Ipo eka bank's loan po olio un il 2030 o ecas billion soums [13]
Janua y 1, 2026
35712
Janua y 1, 2027
38213
Janua y 1, 2028
40887
Janua y 1, 2029
43749
Janua y 1, 2030
46812
Ipo eka bank o Uzbekis an c edi se ings acco ding o he o ecas by 2030, i is expec ed o each
46 812 billion soums . As o Janua y 1, 2025, he o al olume was 33 376 billion soums.
Unde w i ing p ocesses in comme cial banks ha e a numbe o speci ic signi icance and oles in he
bank's ac i i ies and he o ma ion o a heal hy loan po olio. Fi s o all, comme cial banks pay g ea
a en ion o main aining liquidi y and managing isks h ough unde w i ing in lending p ac ices.
Banks seek o di e si y hei loan po olio and inc ease p o i abili y h ough his p ocess. In his, i
plays an impo an ole in ensu ing he inancial s abili y o banks by educing po en ial isks and
alloca ing high-yielding, low- isk loans.
CONCLUSION
Based on esea ch conduc ed on he analysis o he o ma ion and de elopmen o unde w i ing
p ocesses in comme cial banks, he ollowing conclusions we e d awn:
I was a gued ha unde w i ing p ocesses in comme cial banks a e no ully de eloped, and hey a e
no e ec i ely using he oppo uni ies o educe c edi isks h ough hese p ocesses;
I was no ed ha he coun y s ill has a hidden economy in en ep eneu ship, loans a e issued o
bo owe s who do no ha e su icien income unde s a e p og ams, unde de eloped unde w i ing
me hodology, lack o independence o banks, and lack o o ma ion o quali ied unde w i e g oups;
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Comme cial banks o Uzbekis an a e no su icien ly au oma ed, sco ing models ha e no been
su icien ly de eloped, and new models ha e no been de eloped.
The inancial ma ke o ou coun y has no been o med and de eloped su icien ly as an impo an
inancial link o a ma ke economy. This can be explained by he lack o anspa en and comple e
implemen a ion o ma ke p inciples and ules .
LIST OF SOURCES AND REFERENCES USED
1. La ushin OI Dengi, c edi i bank. Tex book. - M.: Izdanie He mes, 2011; G üning H. Vann,
B ayo ich S. Analiz banko skikh isko . Sis ema osenki ko po a i nogo up a leniya i up a leniya
inanso im iskom. - M.: Izda els o "Ves Mi ", 2004. - 304 p.
2. N. Nikulina and S. Be ezina Unde w i ing in he banking sec o //Ves nik economiceskoy
bezopasnos i 176-182 p.
3. La ushin OI Up a lenie deya elnos yu komme cheskogo bank. Tex book. - M.: Ju is , 2013.
4. Abdullaye a Sh. Di e si ica ion o he c edi po olio o comme cial banks in he
con ex o bank isks . Doc o o Economics. Disse a ion. Abs ac – T., 2000.
5. MR Kulme o h ps://www. esea chga e.ne /publica ion
/372517925_IMPROVING_LENDING_MECHANISMS_TAKING_INTO_ACCOUNT
_THE_MINIMIZATION_OF_RISKS.
6. Kholmama o F. Lending p ac ice o comme cial banks: p oblems and ways o sol e hem.
Monog aph. – T.: TMI, “Economics-Finance”, 2021.
7. P epa ed by he au ho based on in o ma ion om Ipo eka-bank ATIB.
8. Accessed om h ps://lex.uz/uz/docs/-4811025 .
9. – 13. Bank da a and p epa ed in S a a 18.
