Deli e able 5.4
Summa y o esul s on he mul i-disciplina y
mapping o he alien species dis ibu ion and
impac s on he Eu opean coas al and ma ine
habi a s
Ve sion 1.0
Da e o deli e y
2024-05-30
Au ho s names
Ma hias Obs 1, Nau as Da aghmeh1, Jus ine Pagnie 1,2, Ka ina Ex e 3
A ilia ions
1 Depa men o Ma ine Sciences, Uni e si y o Go henbu g, Box 461, 405 30 Go henbu g, Sweden; 2
Li ewa ch ERIC; 3 Flande s Ma ine Ins i u e (VLIZ), Jacobsens aa 1, 8400 Oos ende, Wes -
Vlaande en, Belgium
PUBLIC DOCUMENT
Re . A es(2024)4569045 - 25/06/2024
2
Documen In o ma ion
G an Ag eemen
101082021
P ojec Ac onym
MARCO-BOLO
P ojec Ti le
MARine COas al BiOdi e si y Long- e m Obse a ions
Deli e able Numbe
D5.4
Wo k Package Numbe
WP5
Deli e able Ti le
Summa y o esul s on he mul i-disciplina y mapping o he alien species
dis ibu ion and impac s on he Eu opean coas al and ma ine habi a s
Lead Bene icia y
Uni e si y o Go henbu g, Pa ne Numbe 9
Au ho (s)
Ma hias Obs (Uni e si y o Go henbu g), Nau as Da aghmeh (Uni e si y o
Go henbu g), Jus ine Pagnie (Uni e si y o Go henbu g, Li ewa ch), Ka ina
Ex e (VLIZ)
Due Da e
30.05.2024
Submission Da e
30.05.2024
Dissemina ion Le el
PU
Type o Deli e able
R
Ve sion 0.5
05.05.2024, Ma hias Obs
Ve sion 1.0
30.05.2024, Ma hias Obs , Nau as Da aghmeh, Jus ine Pagnie , Ka ina Ex e
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Execu i e Summa y
This deli e able summa izes he scien i ic ou pu s gene a ed by ask T5.4. “Mapping he impac s o
Non-Indigenous species (NIS) on Eu opean coas al and ma ine habi a s, based on mul i-disciplina y
app oaches”. In his ask we in eg a ed species occu ence da a wi h en i onmen al in o ma ion o
p oduce in asi e hea maps and alien o ecas s o he Eu opean coas line. These we e hen e i ied
by alien species obse a ions om he gene ic obse a o y ne wo k EMO BON. O e all, we used a
selec ion o 35 known ma ine alien species o p edic sui able habi a o indi idual species as well as
o iden i y po en ial in asi e ho spo s. Mos o he indi idual models de ec ed a eas wi h sui able
habi a whe e he species ha e no ye been epo ed om. The ho spo models iden i ied egions
wi h ele a ed isk o es ablishmen and sp ead o alien species. These we e loca ed in he Sou he n
No h Sea, he no he n Bay o Biscay, he No he n Ad ia ic Sea, he No he n Skage ak, he Bay o
Gdansk, and he eas e n Black Sea. We could ma ch obse a ions o 32 alien species de ec ed by he
gene ic obse a o ies ne wo k ARMS-MBON agains he p edic ed ho spo s and ound a easonable
o e lap be ween he model p edic ions and he obse a ions o alien species made by he gene ic
obse a o ies. We conclude ha ARMS-MBON and EMO BON may be used in he u u e o o ecas ,
de ec , and moni o he sp ead alien species on a con inen al scale.
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Con en s
Documen In o ma ion ........................................................................................................................... 2
Execu i e Summa y ................................................................................................................................ 3
1. Objec i e ........................................................................................................................................ 5
2. Backg ound ..................................................................................................................................... 5
3. Me hodology .................................................................................................................................. 5
3.1. Modelling app oach .................................................................................................................... 5
3.2. Obse a ions o alien species wi h gene ic obse a o ies .......................................................... 7
4. Resul s and Discussion ................................................................................................................... 7
4.1. Ho spo model ............................................................................................................................. 7
4.2. Alien species obse a ions om he ARMS-MBON ne wo k .................................................... 10
4.3. Sho alls o he cu en app oach ............................................................................................ 11
5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 12
6. Re e ences .................................................................................................................................... 12
7. Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 13
6.1. Summa y o esea ch ou pu s p oduced by ask 5.4 ................................................................ 13
6.2. Lis o modelled species ............................................................................................................ 14
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1. Objec i e
The objec i es o his ask we e o
(i) in eg a e con en ional species occu ence obse a ions wi h en i onmen al in o ma ion o
p oduce in asi e hea maps and alien o ecas s o he Eu opean coas line
(ii) e alua e alien species o ecas s wi h obse a ions om gene ic obse a o y ne wo ks
2. Backg ound
Ma ine ecosys ems a e a ec ed by human ac i i ies in he sea such as ishing, aquacul u e and
shipping. These p ocesses o en cause in asions o alien species (also called non-indigenous species
o NIS), which al e na i e communi ies and lead o he global decline o biodi e si y. F azie e al
(2013) desc ibed he in asion o alien species as one o he majo en i onmen al s esso s o
ma ine ecosys ems, which o en esul s in b oad economic and ecological damage. Common
app oaches o p e en and mi iga e ma ine in asions include isk assessmen s and ea ly wa ning
p og ams o alien species. Recen ly, a numbe o isk assessmen s o alien species ha e been
de eloped based species dis ibu ion modelling me hods (SDMs). He e s a is ical models a e used o
analyze he po en ial habi a sui abili y o alien species unde a wide ange o en i onmen al
condi ions and he eby p edic po en ial ange ex ensions (Ka lsson e al 2019; Leidenbe ge e al
2015). Such me hods may become e en mo e powe ul when combined wi h biodi e si y
moni o ing p og ams able o de ec alien species a an ea ly s age o in asion. To his end, new
me hods ha e been p oposed ecen ly (Bou la e al 2013), one o hem being DNA me aba coding.
These me hods ha e ecen ly been implemen ed by he Eu opean Ma ine Biological Resou ce
Cen e EMBRC in o a con inen al-scale biodi e si y obse a o y ne wo k called EMO BON (San i e al
2023). The p og amme deploys among o he s au onomous ee moni o ing s uc u es (ARMS) in
po s, ma inas, and na u e ese es along he Eu opean coas line wi h he goal o cap u e species
and gene ic di e si y ac oss he Eu opean egional seas (Obs e al 2020). In his s udy we es ed he
po en ial o combining he p edic i e app oaches o e ed by SDMs wi h ea ly wa ning capabili ies
p o ided by DNA-based moni o ing p og ams o imp o e he ea ly de ec ion and moni o ing
p og ams o alien species along he Eu opean coas line.
3. Me hodology
3.1. Modelling app oach
Modelling o ho spo s was ca ied ou using Species Dis ibu ion Models (SDM). To his end we
de eloped a wo k low o iden i y po en ial high- isk a eas o he es ablishmen and sp ead o alien
species in Eu opean coas al wa e s. The SDM wo k low is based on a modeling app oach de eloped
by he Uni e si y o Go henbu g (Ka lsson e al 2019; Leidenbe ge e al 2015) and was u he
adap ed o deal wi h p ope ies o alien species dynamics, o example iden i y op imal alien species
moni o ing si es (Be gk is e al 2020) and p edic ansi ions be ween eshwa e and b ackish and
ma ine habi a s (Obs & Ande sson 2023). The modelling esul s no only show po en ial dis ibu ion
a eas o indi idual alien species bu can also be used o map egions whe e sui able habi a s o
known alien species o e lap. Such egions wi h a high o e all in asion isk, i.e. high isk o
in oduc ion and es ablishmen , can be conside ed in asi e ho spo s.
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The models a e based on a Random Fo es machine lea ning algo i hm. A de ailed explana ion o all
analy ical s eps included in he modeling can be ound in Leidenbe ge e al (2015) and Ka lsson e al
(2019).
Species-speci ic models we e c ea ed based on each species' maximum dis ibu ion wi hin he s udy
a ea and he en i onmen al a iables lis ed below. Random Fo es models we e un wi h 10.000
backg ound poin s (including inpu poin s) d awn om he s udy a ea. All models we e se o
p oduce a p obabili y a he han bina y p ojec ion in as e o ma . The models we e es ed using
con usion ma ices and ROC cu es, and hen p ojec ed wi h he same en i onmen al a iables back
in o he s udy a ea. The esul s we e isualized as maps o po en ial dis ibu ion a eas, i.e.
geog aphical p ojec ions o sui able habi a s.
Geog aphical scope
The s udy a ea, i.e., he geog aphic a ea whe e models we e ained o , a e coas al wa e s o
Eu ope including he Black Sea, he Medi e anean Sea, he No h-Eas A lan ic and he Bal ic Sea.
P edic ions o he models we e gene a ed o he same egion.
Documen a ion
The model's sou ce code, as well as inpu s and esul s wi h species-speci ic and g oup-based
p ojec ions, a e a ailable on Gi Hub (h ps://gi hub.com/biomobs /IAS_ho spo _model).
Biological da a
The lis o a ge species was ob ained om alien species checklis s o HELCOM, OSPAR, AquaNIS,
and he Swedish Agency o Ma ine and Wa e Managemen and included 35 alien species
(Appendix, Table 1). All species we e ca ego ized in o a se ies o g oupings ha make i possible o
weigh , so , and compa e he species-speci ic dis ibu ion maps acco ding o ecological o isk-
based c i e ia. G oups we e assigned acco ding o he biological en i onmen (phy oben hos,
phy oplank on, zooben hos, zooplank on), salini y ole ance (es ua ine, eshwa e , ma ine), habi a
o adul li e s ages (ben hic, holo-pelagic, symbio ic), po en ial o in asi eness (based on isk
assessmen s o he Swedish Species In o ma ion Cen e ), and axonomic g oup (phylum le el).
Species obse a ions (p esence-only) we e ob ained o all a ge species om he Global
Biodi e si y In o ma ion Facili y (h ps://www.gbi .o g/). All species obse a ions we e ca e ully
e ised and e i ied be o e being used in he models, while un e i ied eco ds we e disca ded.
En i onmen al da a
G idded en i onmen al da a a ailable as global ma ine da a laye s h ough he Bio-O acle websi e
(h p://www.bio-o acle.ugen .be/) wi h a esolu ion o 5 a c-min (Tybe ghein e al 2012) we e used
o gene a e en i onmen al a iables o he SDMs. These da a laye s a e gene a ed om mon hly
sa elli e da a (Aqua-MODIS and SeaWiFS websi e h ps://oceancolo .gs c.nasa.go /) as well as in-
si u measu ed oceanog aphic da a om he Wo ld Ocean Da abase 2009 (Boye e al 2009). The
ollowing da a laye s we e used: Mean dissol ed oxygen in ml/l (Oxy), Mean ni a e [NO3] [NO3 +
NO2] in μmol/l (NO3), Mean phospha e in μmol/l (PO4), Maximum sea su ace empe a u e in °C
(Max SST), Minimum sea su ace empe a u e in °C (Min SST), Sea su ace empe a u e ange in °C
(Range SST), Mean calci e concen a ion in mol/m3 (CaCO3), Maximum chlo ophyll a concen a ion
in mg/m3 (Max Chla), Minimum chlo ophyll a concen a ion in mg/m3 (Min Chla), Range o
chlo ophyll a concen a ion in mg/m3 (Range Chla), Mean Sea ice concen a ion in % (Ice).
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Analysis o cumula i e in asion isk
To calcula e he cumula i e in asion isk, he ollowing ac o s we e in eg a ed in o each ecological
g oup:
• Cumula i e p obabili y o encoun e ing sui able habi a , summed o all species in an ecological
g oup (e.g. phy oplank on).
• Weigh ing o species-speci ic p obabili y o sui able habi a s based on in asi e po en ial, whe e
species wi h a high isk ou come acco ding o S and e al (2018) we e gi en mo e weigh , while
species wi h low isk ou comes we e gi en less weigh in he agg ega e p ojec ion (weigh
ac o s 1–5).
• Weigh ing o species-speci ic p obabili y o sui able habi a based on p oximi y o shipping
a ic, whe e species wi h sui able habi a in boxes wi h shipping a ic we e gi en mo e weigh
due o inc eased in oduc ion isk (weigh ing ac o s a ic in ensi y/5000).
• Cumula i e in asion isk maps o ecological g oups below a e a ailable on he p ojec page (in
he olde : esul s/Ras e iles GROUPS (GeoTIFF o ma ). Cumula i e in asion isk alues a e
exp essed wi h wo ypes o loga i hmic scales. Bo h weigh ing and scaling a e explained in he
eadme ile in he same olde .
3.2. Obse a ions o alien species wi h gene ic obse a o ies
We used he de i ed species obse a ion da a om he Eu opean ARMS-MBON sampling campaigns
2018-19 o e alua e he alien species o ecas s made by he models. The da a se encompasses
samples collec ed by 15 obse a o ies dis ibu ed ac oss 12 coun ies, which deployed (and
con inuously deploy) ARMS uni s in he icini y o ma inas, po s, ma ine p o ec ed a eas (MPAs),
and long e m ecological esea ch si es (LTERs) - om S alba d in he no h o he Red Sea in he
sou h (Figu e 2). Fo he analysis, 56 ARMS uni s we e included in o al, which we e deployed
be ween 2018 and 2019 and e ie ed be ween 2018 and 2020 (Obs e al 2020; Da aghmeh e al
2024; San i e al 2023). The du a ion o sampling e en s (i.e., deploymen du a ion o indi idual
ARMS uni s) anged om 37 o 649 days. ARMS uni s we e deployed, e ie ed, pho og aphed, and
p ocessed by indi idual pa ne s in he ARMS-MBON ne wo k ollowing he ARMS-MBON p o ocols
(accessible h ough he ARMS-MBON Gi Hub eposi o y a h ps://gi hub.com/a ms-mbon). De ails
on da a analyses can be ound in Da aghmeh e al (2024).
We pe o med a scan agains e e ence checklis s o ecological key species. Species occu ences
wi h a leas wo sequence eads we e scanned agains he Wo ld Regis e o In oduced Ma ine
Species (WRiMS; Cos ello e al 2024) o species wi h alien s a us a he place o obse a ion. The
WRiMS checks can be eplica ed using he Jupy e no ebook on h ps://www.gi hub.com/ liz-be-
opsci/lw-iji-in asi e-checke .
4. Resul s and Discussion
4.1. Ho spo model
Summa y
All modelling esul s a e documen ed on he Gi Hub p ojec page
h ps://gi hub.com/biomobs /IAS_ho spo _model in he olde Resul s/Con usion ma ices and
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Resul s/Tes esul s. A o al o 260 model esul s a e a ailable on he p ojec page. All models
showed good es esul s wi h ega d o p edic i e pe o mance and a e p esen ed acco ding o
g oupings, weigh ings, and scalings. O e all, he modelling p oduced 48 species-speci ic p edic ions
(28 ma ine and 20 eshwa e species) as well as 11 g oup-speci ic ma ine p edic ions, deli e ed as
TIFF iles, which can be analyzed indi idually o in conce in a GIS en i onmen o in es iga e he
in luence o di e en pa ame e s on he agg ega e in asion isk.
Indi idual p ojec ions
Species speci ic p ojec ions can be used o iden i y a eas o sui able habi a whe e species ha e no
ye been obse ed o a eas whe e species may mig a e o in he nea u u e. Fo example, he
Ge man and Danish No h Sea coas s o Bugula ne i ina and Ficopoma us enigman icus, he la ge
Bal ic es ua ies o Rhi h opanopeus ha isii, he Bay o Biscay o Hyd oides dian hus, and he
No he n Ad ia ic Sea o Aus ominius modes us (Fig. 1).
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Figu e 1. Example o model p edic ions o 6 alien species. The colou scale is linea om whi e o da k
b own, wi h 0 indica ing lowes p obabili y o ind sui able habi a , and 1 indica ing highes p obabili y o
ind sui able habi a . Red ci cles indica e aining poin s o he models based con i med obse a ions o he
species.
Rhi h opanopeus ha isii
Hyd oides dian hus
Bugula ne i ina Cance i o a us
Ficopoma us enigma icus
Aus ominius modes us
