Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s o he
Six Majo Emi e s based on he
Ex ended Smoo h Pa hway Model (ESPM)
1
DOI 10.5281/zenodo.17206418
Published on zenodo
Ve sion: 26/09/2025
EDGAR da a s a us: Sep embe 2025
P o . Man ed Sa gl
D . Daniel Wiegand
Gün e Wi mann
And eas Wol s eine
www.sa e- he-clima e.in o ● sa e- he-clima [email protected]
Web apps o his pape :
• Pa is-compa ible na ional CO2 budge s: h ps://na ional-budge s.clima e-calcula o .in o
• Emission pa hs: h ps://pa hs.clima e-calcula o .in o
• Na ional CO2 budge s de i ed om NDCs: h ps://ib-iwp.clima e-calcula o .in o
Abs ac
Wha a e achie able e i o ial emissions a ge s o he wo ld's six majo emi e s ha sum up o
Pa is-compa ible emissions?
To answe his ques ion, his pape a ies key global amewo k da a on he a ailable budge and
he sha ing mechanism o calcula e op-down na ional emissions a ge s using he Ex ended Smoo h
Pa hway Model (ESPM).
The Pa is Ra che Mechanism is based on a bo om-up app oach. Howe e , i he na ional a ge s
a e no Pa is-compa ible in sum, he ques ion a ises whe he hey ep esen an adequa e con ibu ion
o he necessa y global e o s. An open and anspa en discussion o his issue can con ibu e o
NDCs ha , in sum, a e once compa ible wi h he Pa is Ag eemen .
1
This pape is also an upda e o a publica ion in he "Zei sch i ü Umwel poli ik & Umwel ech " (Sa gl, e al., 2021)
due o he publica ion o new da a on he emaining global budge s in he Six h Assessmen Repo o he IPCC (IPCC,
2021) and emissions da a (EDGAR, 2025). See also ou co esponding pape o Ge many and he EU (Sa gl, e al.,
2025).
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 2 / 42
Con en
Abs ac ........................................................................................................................................... 1
Lis s o Tables, Figu es and Excu suses ......................................................................................... 3
1 Global CO2 budge s and hei ele ance o na ional a ge s..................................................... 4
2 Calcula ion o na ional emission pa hs wi h he ESPM ............................................................. 6
2.1 The Ex ended Smoo h Pa hway Model (ESPM) ............................................................... 6
2.1.1 De e mining o na ional budge s ............................................................................. 6
2.1.2 De i a ion o na ional emission pa hs ..................................................................... 7
2.1.3 NDC indica o : Implici weigh ing o he popula ion (IWP) .................................. 7
2.2 Da a basis used ................................................................................................................... 9
3 Cu en emission a ge s o he six la ges emi e s.................................................................. 11
4 Exempla y na ional emission a ge s o he six la ges emi e s plus Nige ia ........................ 14
4.1 O e iew o esul s o ex eme and mean alues in he global amewo k da a ............ 14
4.2 Exempla y global amewo k da a e lec he NDCs o USA, EU and Japan ................. 19
4.3 Exempla y global amewo k da a e lec he NDCs o China and India ........................ 25
5 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 28
Tools and u he exempla y esul s .............................................................................................. 30
Excu suses ..................................................................................................................................... 31
Re e ences ..................................................................................................................................... 38
Appendix: Exempla y na ional budge s wi h di e en global amewo k da a ............................ 42
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 3 / 42
Lis s o Tables, Figu es and Excu suses
Lis o Tables
Tab. 1: Remaining global CO2 budge s om 2020 onwa ds wi h a compliance p obabili y o 83% ............................. 4
Tab. 2: Baseline da a o he six la ges emi e s plus Nige ia .......................................................................................... 9
Tab. 3: Calcula ion scheme o he global budge o be dis ibu ed he e ........................................................................ 10
Tab. 4: Cu en emission a ge s o he six la ges emi e s........................................................................................... 11
Tab. 5: Con e sion NDCs o he change in 2030 compa ed o 2019 ............................................................................ 12
Tab. 6: Implici budge s and weigh ings popula ion (IWP)........................................................................................... 13
Tab. 7: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B300 / P100 / NNE0 / LUC0 ............................................. 15
Tab. 8: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P100 / NNE0 / LUC0 ............................................. 15
Tab. 9: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P50 / NNE0 / LUC0 ............................................... 16
Tab. 10: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P0 / NNE0 / LUC0 ............................................... 16
Tab. 11: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P50 / NNE25 / LUC180 ....................................... 18
Tab. 12: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ............................................. 19
Tab. 13: Compa ison wi h NDCs (change 2030 s. 2019) - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ............................................ 19
Tab. 14: Compa ison wi h NDCs (budge s) - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ................................................................... 20
Tab. 15: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues China - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 .................................................. 20
Tab. 16: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues USA - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ................................................... 21
Tab. 17: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues EU - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ...................................................... 22
Tab. 18: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues India - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ................................................... 22
Tab. 19: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues Russia - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0................................................. 23
Tab. 20: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues Japan - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 .................................................. 23
Tab. 21: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues Nige ia - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ............................................... 24
Tab. 22: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues China – B650 / P15 / NNE25 / LUC180 ........................................... 26
Tab. 23: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues India – B650 / P15 / NNE25 / LUC180 ............................................ 26
Tab. 24: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six – B650 / P15 / NNE25 / LUC180 ....................................... 27
Tab. 25: Compa ison wi h NDCs (budge s) – B650 / P15 / NNE25 / LUC180 ............................................................ 27
Tab. 26: GDP pe capi a o he six la ges emi e s ....................................................................................................... 34
Tab. 27: Exempla y na ional budge s wi h di e en global amewo k da a ............................................................... 42
Lis o Figu es
Fig. 1: Pa is-compa ible global emission pa hs – B650 .................................................................................................. 5
Fig. 2: Emission pa hs majo emi e s (RM-6-abs) – B650 / P50 / NNE0 / LUC0 ....................................................... 17
Fig. 3: Weigh ing popula ion s. a ge s 2030/2019 majo emi e s – B650 / NNE0 / LUC0 ....................................... 18
Fig. 4: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es China – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ............... 21
Fig. 5: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es EU – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ................... 22
Fig. 6: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es Nige ia – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ............ 24
Fig. 7: Emission pa hs majo emi e s (RM-3-lin) – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0 ........................................................ 25
Fig. 8: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es China – B650 / P15 / NNE25 / LUC180 ......... 26
Fig. 9: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es India – B650 / P15 / NNE25 / LUC180 .......... 27
Fig. 10: Alloca ion p inciples o he dis ibu ion o a emaining global CO2 budge .................................................. 33
Lis o Excu suses
Excu sus 1: Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on CO2 budge s ............................................................................. 32
Excu sus 2: Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on eedom oppo uni ies o u u e gene a ions ........................... 32
Excu sus 3: Alloca ion o a global CO2 budge ............................................................................................................ 35
Excu sus 4: Po en ial o emissions ading be ween coun ies ..................................................................................... 36
Excu sus 5: Regensbu g Model Scena io Types ........................................................................................................... 37
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 4 / 42
1 Global CO2 budge s and hei ele ance o na ional a ge s
CO2 accumula es in he a mosphe e.
2
I global wa ming is o keep wi hin ce ain limi s, he sum o
CO2 emissions is he e o e decisi e (budge p ope y o CO2). Fig. 1 makes clea wha also esul s
om he budge p ope y: he la e we ac , he ea lie we ha e o achie e emission neu ali y and
he mo e we depend on ne nega i e emissions.
O e a ching goal in he Pa is Ag eemen is o hold " he inc ease in he global a e age empe a u e
o well below 2°C abo e p e-indus ial le els" and pu sue e o s " o limi he empe a u e inc ease
o 1.5°C abo e p e-indus ial le els".
Fo he emaining global CO2 budge s, he IPCC published he igu es in Tab. 1 in i s Six h Assess-
men Repo 2021:
Wa ming
Remaining ca bon budge s
[°C]
[G CO2 om 2020 on]
1.5
300
1.6
400
1.7
550
1.8
650
Tab. 1: Remaining global CO2 budge s om 2020 onwa ds wi h a compliance p obabili y o 83%
3
In 2024, global emissions we e es ima ed a a ound 42 G CO2 (GCP, 2024).
The need o ake in o accoun he socio-economic consequences o he pace o deca bonisa ion, he
likelihood o compliance and o he unce ain ies equi es a science-based bu ul ima ely policy de-
cision on he global ca bon budge agains which na ionally de e mined con ibu ions (NDCs) a e
se .
I he Pa ies make anspa en an unde lying global CO2 budge and i s dis ibu ion in hei NDCs,
o i hey a e mo e encou aged o do so, his can ini ia e a discou se ha ul ima ely leads o con-
e ging benchma ks o he global amewo k da a ha con ibu es o Pa is-compa ible NDCs in
sum.
4
2
The subsc ip o 2 in CO2 is omi ed in his wo k o easons o simpli ica ion.
3
Tab. 1 based on Table SPM.2 in he IPCC Six h Assessmen Repo (c . IPCC, 2021). The key s a emen s o he IPCC
on emaining CO2 budge s a e summa ised he e: (Wol s eine , 2025c). New da a on he emaining CO2 budge will
also be p esen ed he e. Fo u he backg ound in o ma ion, we e e o he IPCC epo .
4
In a landma k decision in 2021 he Fede al Cons i u ional Cou in Ge many made his clea : Clima e policy mus be
o ien ed owa ds emaining CO2 budge s (c . BVe G, 2021). This esul s om he physically gi en budge p ope y
o CO2. See also Excu sus 1: Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on CO2 budge s.
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 5 / 42
Fig. 1: Pa is-compa ible global emission pa hs – B650
5
5
All pa hs adhe e o a CO2 budge o 650 G in he pe iod 2020 – 2100. -5 G was speci ied as he possible minimum
o emissions. A s a ing change a e o 0.5% was selec ed in he RM Scena io Types 3 – 5. Fo he scena io ypes used,
see Excu sus 5. The pa hs we e calcula ed wi h his ool: (Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025c). This e e s o o al CO2
emissions, including land use change (ac ual alues acco ding o (GCP, 2024)).
He e a e simpli ied web apps:
• RM Scena io Types (see Excu sus 5): h ps://pa hs.clima e-calcula o .in o
• Linea global emission pa hs: h p://global-pa hs.clima e-calcula o .in o
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 6 / 42
2 Calcula ion o na ional emission pa hs wi h he ESPM
2.1 The Ex ended Smoo h Pa hway Model (ESPM)
In o de o calcula e na ional emission a ge s based on global amewo k da a, he Ex ended
Smoo h Pa hway Model (ESPM) is used. The ESPM p oceeds in wo s eps (c . Wiegand, e al.,
2021; Sa gl, e al., 2021):
1. De e mining o na ional budge s
2. De i a ion o na ional emission pa hs
2.1.1 De e mining o na ional budge s
In o de o de i e na ional budge s om a global budge , an alloca ion key is needed. In de e mining
he ollowing exempla y na ional emissions a ge s, a weigh ed dis ibu ion key was used ha akes
in o accoun a coun y's sha e o global emissions and i s sha e o he wo ld's popula ion in 2019
(c . Raupach, e al., 2014).
6
Wi h his wo-dimensional dis ibu ion key, he cu en emissions e lec
he cu en eali y and he popula ion sha es add ess he issue o clima e jus ice. This leads o he
ollowing weigh ing o mula:
𝐵𝑖=(𝐶∗𝑃𝐵𝑌
𝑖
𝑃𝐵𝑌 +(1−𝐶)∗𝐸𝐵𝑌
𝑖
𝐸𝐵𝑌)∗𝐵
whe e
𝐸𝐵𝑌 𝑜𝑟 𝐸𝐵𝑌
𝑖 global emissions o emissions o coun y i in he base yea ; he e: BY = 2019
𝑃𝐵𝑌 𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝐵𝑌
𝑖 global popula ion o popula ion o coun y i in he base yea
𝐵 o 𝐵𝑖 global CO2 budge o na ional CO2 budge o he coun y i; he e om 2020 on
𝐶 weigh ing o popula ion
7
The e a e many possible app oaches o alloca ing a global budge o coun ies (c . an de Wijs , e
al., 2025). In ou iew, his dis ibu ion key ep esen s he mos impo an ac o s and makes i
possible in pa icula o iden i y easible na ional a ge s. O he c i e ia seem o us o make mo e
sense in o he con ex s (see Excu sus 3: Alloca ion o a global CO2 budge ). A wo-dimensional
dis ibu ion key also has he ad an age ha only one ac o has o be de e mined.
6
In some o ou ools, i is also possible o speci y na ional budge s ha ha e been de e mined in a di e en way (see
Chap e “Tools and u he exempla y esul s ").
7
Based on con e ging pe capi a emissions, an implici weigh ing o he popula ion can be de e mined in he Regens-
bu g Model (c . Sa gl, e al., 2017; Sa gl, e al., 2024a). This is one way o iden i y a aceable alue (c . Wol s eine
& Wi mann, 2024b).
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 7 / 42
2.1.2 De i a ion o na ional emission pa hs
Wi h he help o he Regensbu g Model Scena io Types RM 1 – 6, plausible emission pa hs a e
de i ed ha comply wi h he na ional CO2 budge . Wi h hese scena io ypes, we o e he en i e
ange o plausible possibili ies (see Excu sus 5).
A olume o e shoo can be aken in o accoun in he RM Scena io Types. This means a empo a y
exceeding o he p e iously de ined CO2 budge . This o e shoo is o se by subsequen ne nega-
i e emissions un il 2100.
8
The po en ial o ne nega i e emissions is included in he model by a pe cen age o a coun y's
emissions in 2019.
9
The esul ep esen s he po en ial minimum emissions by 2100. I his alue is
nega i e, hen a olume o e shoo is possible. The eby, he lowe his nega i e alue, he highe
he o e shoo .
The illus a i e model pa hways P1 – P4 o he IPCC om i s 2018 special epo can be used as a
e e ence o he po en ial o a olume o e shoo . Howe e , he co esponding alues show a wide
ange. CO2 emissions in 2100 excluding land use (AFOLU) ela i e o co esponding emissions in
2019 ange om -55% o +2% (c . Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025e; Wol s eine & Wi mann,
2025c).
10
2.1.3 NDC indica o : Implici weigh ing o he popula ion (IWP)
Coun ies indi ec ly poin ou wi h hei NDC which na ional CO2 budge hey a e claiming o
hemsel es in he u u e.
The implici weigh ing o he popula ion (IWP) is a help ul measu e o assessing his claim (c .
Sa gl, e al., 2024a; Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2024b; Wol s eine , 2025b). I his na ional budge
8
The ollowing main aspec s need o be conside ed (c . Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025e):
(1) In o de o achie e clima e neu ali y, una oidable me hane and ni ous oxide emissions om ag icul u e, o
example, mus be o se by nega i e CO2 emissions. These mus be p o ided in addi ion o he ne nega i e
CO2 emissions assumed he e.
(2) A p esen , he po en ial o nega i e emissions is e y unce ain echnically, economically and in e ms o hei
du abili y (c . SRU, 2020).
(3) E en i a budge is me ha co esponds o he a ge ed limi a ion o global wa ming, a empo a y olume
o e shoo can lead o he o e shoo ing o ipping poin s in he clima e sys em.
(4) Acco ding o ecen indings, “ he cen u y-scale clima e–ca bon cycle esponse o a CO2 emo al om he
a mosphe e is no always equal and opposi e o he esponse o a CO2 emission” (IPCC, 2021, p. 9 chap e
5). This po en ial asymme y is no aken in o accoun he e.
9
This means ha coun ies wi h high cu en emissions would ha e o ealise o inance high ne nega i e CO2
emissions. Since a budge o LUC is p o ided he e a global le el, nega i e CO2 emissions a na ional le el e e o
he non-LUC sec o .
10
I should be exp essly no ed ha ne nega i e emissions in he IPCC illus a i e model pa hs can also se e o o se
posi i e emissions o o he g eenhouse gases such as me hane and ni ous oxide, and no jus o o se pas CO2
o e shoo .
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 8 / 42
can be es ima ed (c . Wol s eine , 2025a) o , a bes , is e en di ec ly speci ied, he implici
weigh ing o he popula ion depending on a global CO2 budge is gi en by
C= 𝐵𝑖−𝐵∗𝐸𝐵𝑌
𝑖𝐸𝐵𝑌
⁄
𝐵∗(𝑃𝐵𝑌
𝑖𝑃𝐵𝑌
⁄−𝐸𝐵𝑌
𝑖𝐸𝐵𝑌)
⁄=𝐼𝑊𝑃
a e ans o ming he abo e weigh ing o mula.
See Tab. 6 o he IWP o he six majo emi e s based on hei NDCs.
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 9 / 42
2.2 Da a basis used
The EU da abase EDGAR p o ides CO2 emissions excluding CO2 emissions om land-use (LUC)
and in e na ional shipping and a ia ion (ISA) o all coun ies in he wo ld which a e shown in Tab.
2 o he six la ges emi e s plus Nige ia (c . EDGAR, 2025).
11
Fo compa ison Nige ia is added
as an example o a coun y wi h low pe capi a emissions and a low sha e o global emissions.
emissions in G
pe capi a
2019
in
sha e in global
emissions
2019
sha e in global
popula ion
2019
1990
2010
2019
2024
China
2.4
9.1
11.8
13.1
8.3
32%
18%
Uni ed S a es
5.0
5.5
5.0
4.6
15.1
14%
4%
EU27
3.8
3.4
2.9
2.5
6.6
8%
6%
India
0.6
1.7
2.6
3.2
1.9
7%
18%
Russia
2.4
1.7
1.9
2.0
12.9
5%
2%
Japan
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
8.9
3%
2%
Sum
15.4
22.7
25.2
26.4
69%
50%
Nige ia
0.08
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.6
0.3%
2.6%
Global
22.0
32.8
36.7
39.6
4.8
100%
Tab. 2: Baseline da a o he six la ges emi e s plus Nige ia
12
11
B ie desc ip ion o di e en concep s CO2 emission om land use: GCP LUC = CO2 om land use changes, IPCC
AFOLU = ag icul u e + o es y + land use, UNFCCC/EU LULUCF = essen ially CO2 om land use & o es s.
AFOLU and LULUCF a e almos iden ical in ega d o CO2 in heo y, as ag icul u e almos exclusi ely in ol es
CH₄/N₂O.
When using he emaining ca bon budge s p esen ed by he IPCC, i is impo an o o se all an h opogenic CO2 emis-
sions. This includes no only emissions om ossil uels and indus ial p ocesses (EFOS), bu also emissions om land
use changes.
The Global Ca bon P ojec (GCP) LUC ca ego y is he app op ia e measu e o be used he e (GCP, 2024), because
AFOLU-CO2 (IPCC) and LULUCF (UNFCCC/EU) include no only land use changes bu also managemen - ela ed
sinks (e.g. o es managemen , wood p oduc s). These sinks a e al eady accoun ed o in he IPCC budge amewo k
as pa o he na u al land sink.
Howe e , in he IPCC illus a i e model pa hs, AFOLU CO2 emissions only e lec sou ces om land use changes (c .
IPCC, 2019, sec. 2.3.1.2). Managemen - ela ed sinks ( o es s, soils, HWP) a e epo ed sepa a ely as land sinks. The e-
o e, LUC acco ding o GCP la gely co esponds o AFOLU emissions in he IPCC illus a i e model pa hs.
The ollowing a e he es ima ed emissions o 2010:
concep
model pa h IPCC SR15
G CO2
sou ce
LUC
+5.5
(GCP, 2024)
LULUCF
-2.6
(EDGAR, 2025)
AFOLU
IPCC SR15
P1
+5.4
(Wol s eine &
Wi mann, 2025c)
P2
+4.6
P3
+7.2
P4
+4.2
12
These a e he CO2 emissions om ossil uel use (excep in e na ional shipping and a ia ion; ISA) and cemen p o-
duc ion (EDGAR, 2025). CO2 emissions om land-use change (LUC) a e he e o e no included he e (see also Chap e
2.2 Da a basis used). Rema k: The coun ies (excluding he EU) ha accoun o less han 2% o global CO2 emissions
a e oge he esponsible o a ound 39% o global emissions. This means ha e en coun ies wi h a small sha e o
global emissions canno escape esponsibili y.
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 16 / 42
he a ge is educed o 1.8°C, which can be unde s ood as he lowe limi o he Pa is Ag eemen .
Wi h a global CO2 budge ha is se iously gea ed owa ds limi ing global wa ming o 1.5°C, China,
USA, Russia and Japan would no longe be able o mee hei budge due o hei ac ual emissions
since 2019 (see Tab. 7).
Weigh ing he ac o s popula ion and emissions equally leads o he esul s in Tab. 9 and he esul s
o a popula ion weigh ing o 0% (g and a he ing) a e shown in Tab. 10.
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
650
minimum annual emissions
0%
weigh ing popula ion
50%
LUC budge 2020 - 2100 in G
0
e e ence alues (linea emission pa hs, RM-6)
budge
2020 - 2100
in G
scope
yea s
empo a y
o e shoo
in G
yea
emissions
neu ali y
a ge yea :
2030
2030
2035
2040
e e ence yea :
1990
2019
China
235%
-32%
-67%
-100%
159
13
0.0
2040
Uni ed S a es
-44%
-44%
-75%
-100%
56
11
0.0
2040
EU27
-51%
-35%
-52%
-69%
43
15
0.0
2050
India
349%
6%
-9%
-24%
78
30
0.0
2066
Russia
-55%
-41%
-82%
-100%
22
12
0.0
2038
Japan
-40%
-38%
-59%
-80%
15
13
0.0
2045
Nige ia
72%
2%
0%
-1%
9
74
0.0
-
Tab. 9: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P50 / NNE0 / LUC0
30
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
650
minimum annual emissions
0%
weigh ing popula ion
0%
LUC budge 2020 - 2100 in G
0
e e ence alues (linea emission pa hs, RM-6)
budge
2020 - 2100
in G
scope
yea s
empo a y
o e shoo
in G
yea
emissions
neu ali y
a ge yea :
2030
2030
2035
2040
e e ence yea :
1990
2019
China
297%
-19%
-44%
-69%
203
17
0.0
2047
Uni ed S a es
-27%
-27%
-44%
-61%
85
17
0.0
2052
EU27
-48%
-32%
-46%
-59%
50
17
0.0
2055
India
267%
-14%
-45%
-76%
44
17
0.0
2044
Russia
-39%
-20%
-43%
-67%
32
17
0.0
2048
Japan
-33%
-31%
-45%
-60%
19
17
0.0
2055
Nige ia
32%
-21%
-43%
-65%
2
17
0.0
2049
Tab. 10: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P0 / NNE0 / LUC0
31
Weigh ing he popula ion wi h 50% ins ead o 100% would mean a highe ambi ion le el o India,
since among he six la ges emi e s, only India's pe capi a emissions in he base yea 2019 a e
below he global a e age (see Tab. 2). Fo he o he i e, howe e , he equi emen s a e educed
(see also Fig. 3).
30
Tab. 27 in he appendix shows by way o example he 60 highes na ional CO2 budge s esul ing om hese ame-
wo k da a.
31
Rema k: I he popula ion sha e is neglec ed and ac ual emissions we e no conside ed o he yea s 2020 - 2024 (see
oo no e 27), g and a he ing would esul in he same a ge s o all coun ies.
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 17 / 42
Fig. 2 shows he emission pa hs o he six la ges emi e s wi h a global CO2 budge o 650 G and
a popula ion weigh ing o 50%. The igu e also illus a es ha i China does no educe i s emissions
by 2030, i will c ea e an ambi ion gap ha o he s canno easily ill.
Fig. 2: Emission pa hs majo emi e s (RM-6-abs) – B650 / P50 / NNE0 / LUC0
32
Fig. 3 shows he cou se o he e e ence alues 2030 o 2019 depending on he weigh ing o he
popula ion wi h a global CO2 budge o 650 G .
32
Ac ual emissions 2010 - 2024 (see also oo no e 27).
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 18 / 42
Fig. 3: Weigh ing popula ion s. a ge s 2030/2019 majo emi e s – B650 / NNE0 / LUC0
33
Tab. 11 conside s a po en ial o ne nega i e emissions (and hus o an o e shoo ) o -25% and a
LUC budge o -180 G . These igu es a e based on he illus a i e model pa h P3 om he IPCC
Special Repo 2018 (c . Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025e).
34
Howe e , elying so hea ily on nega-
i e CO2 emissions ha bou s massi e isks.
35
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
650
minimum annual emissions
-25%
weigh ing popula ion
50%
LUC budge 2020 - 2100 in G
-180
e e ence alues (linea emission pa hs, RM-6)
budge
2020 - 2100
in G
scope
yea s
empo a y
o e shoo
in G
yea
emissions
neu ali y
a ge yea :
2030
2030
2035
2040
e e ence yea :
1990
2019
China
358%
-6%
-21%
-36%
205
17
101.1
2062
Uni ed S a es
-21%
-21%
-33%
-45%
72
14
39.8
2064
EU27
-43%
-26%
-35%
-44%
55
19
15.6
2072
India
372%
11%
1%
-9%
100
39
6.8
2084
Russia
-31%
-10%
-25%
-40%
28
15
16.8
2061
Japan
-28%
-25%
-35%
-45%
19
17
7.2
2069
Nige ia
79%
7%
8%
10%
12
95
0.0
-
Tab. 11: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six - B650 / P50 / NNE25 / LUC180
33
Wi hou aking ac ual emissions a e 2019 in o accoun , all coun ies would s a a he same alue wi h a popula ion
weigh ing o 0% (g and a he ing).
34
See limi a ion desc ibed in oo no e 10.
35
See oo no e 8 and (Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025e).
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 19 / 42
4.2 Exempla y global amewo k da a e lec he NDCs o USA, EU and Japan
The ollowing exempla y combina ions o he global amewo k da a in Tab. 12 lead o esul s ha
come close o he a ge s in he NDCs o he USA, he EU and Japan o 2030 (see Tab. 13). Due
o he limi a ions associa ed wi h nega i e CO2 emissions, conse a i e assump ions we e made o
he LUC budge and po en ial o ne nega i e emissions (c . Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025e). Pop-
ula ion weigh ing was used as a ee pa ame e o map he NDCs o 2030 o he coun ies consid-
e ed he e as closely as possible.
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum annual emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge 2020 - 2100 in G
0
e e ence alues (linea emission pa hs, RM-6)
budge
2020 - 2100
in G
scope
yea s
empo a y
o e shoo
in G
yea
emissions
neu ali y
a ge yea :
2030
2030
2035
2040
e e ence yea :
1990
2019
China
261%
-26%
-57%
-88%
160
14
13.8
2042
Uni ed S a es
-33%
-33%
-55%
-77%
65
13
5.5
2046
EU27
-51%
-35%
-52%
-68%
40
14
3.0
2050
India
287%
-9%
-36%
-63%
46
18
2.7
2047
Russia
-45%
-28%
-58%
-89%
24
13
2.2
2042
Japan
-37%
-35%
-53%
-71%
15
13
1.2
2048
Nige ia
53%
-9%
-20%
-31%
4
29
0.1
2072
Tab. 12: Linea emission pa hs - e e ence alues big six – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Using he amewo k da a om Tab. 12 and compa ing he esul s wi h he coun ies' commi men s
leads o he ollowing esul s (see Tab. 13):
coun y
amewo k da a Tab. 12
NDC (see Tab. 5)
de ia ion % poin s
China
-26%
+11%
-37%
Uni ed S a es
-33%
-41%
8%
EU27
-35%
-41%
6%
India
-9%
+18%
-26%
Russia
-28%
-8%
-20%
Japan
-35%
-36%
1%
Tab. 13: Compa ison wi h NDCs (change 2030 s. 2019) - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Dis ega ding he ac ha he coun ies' a ge s gene ally e e o all g eenhouse gases, he ame-
wo k da a used o Tab. 12 a e a good ep esen a ion o he cu en a ge s o he EU, USA and
Japan o 2030.
The esul ing na ional budge s based on he amewo k da a in Tab. 12 also co espond o he im-
plici CO2 budge s o hese coun ies based on hei NDCs (see Tab. 14):
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 20 / 42
G
na ional
budge
(Tab. 12)
implici
budge 36
(Tab. 6)
de ia-
ion in
%
China
160
332
108%
Uni ed S a es
65
73
12%
EU27
40
42
4%
India
46
91
98%
Russia
24
45
89%
Japan
15
17
13%
sum
350
600
71%
Tab. 14: Compa ison wi h NDCs (budge s) - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Howe e , he esul s o China, India and Russia a e a apa . E en India and Nige ia, would ha e
o educe hei emissions signi ican ly by 2030, despi e a below-a e age pe capi a emissions in
2019 (see Tab. 2).
37
The ques ion a ises as o whe he , o example, China and India could achie e he a ge s o 2030
acco ding o Tab. 12 by aking a di e en emissions pa hway. The amewo k da a om Tab. 12 is
used below o show he en i e ange o plausible emission pa hs (see Tab. 15):
38
China
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
-1%
12%
12%
12%
5%
2030
-44%
-26%
-18%
-5%
-26%
2035
-68%
-68%
-68%
-74%
-57%
2040
-82%
-89%
-94%
-102%
-88%
2045
-90%
-97%
-102%
-102%
-102%
2050
-94%
-102%
-102%
-102%
-102%
yea emissions neu ali y
2061
2048
2044
2039
2042
o e shoo in G
9.1
12.1
13.3
14.6
13.8
s a change a e 2025
-10.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
-5.6%
na ional budge in G
160
Tab. 15: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues China - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
39
In scena io ype RM-4, China would only ha e o educe i s emissions by 5% by 2030 compa ed o
2019. Howe e , his has he p ice ha emission neu ali y mus hen be achie ed ea lie and mo e
36
See oo no e 25 o he limi a ions.
37
Ou web app can also be used o check whe he a coun y is on he igh ack: h p://na ional-budge s.clima e-calcu-
la o .in o.
38
In scena io ypes RM 3 - 5, he a e o change o he s a ing yea (he e: 2025) can be speci ied on he basis o a
ealis ic es ima e. Since his a e o change is he basis o he en i e cou se o he ollowing a es o change, a no mal-
ised alue mus be used ha is no in luenced by empo a y e ec s such as he pandemic. Fo he e e ence alues
shown he e, he ac ual a es o 2024 was used as he s a ing a e o change in scena io ypes RM 3 - 5. In o de o ind
a solu ion in he espec i e scena io ype, his s a ing alue may ha e been changed sligh ly.
39
S uc u e o he ables wi h he RM Scena io Types: The emission a ge s o scena io ypes RM 3 - 5 o 2030 a e
less ambi ious om le o igh .
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 21 / 42
ne nega i e emissions mus be ealised. Bu e en his scena io ype is s ill a om China's 2030
a ge in i s NDC (see Tab. 13).
Fig. 4: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es China – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
40
The esul s o he scena io ypes a e also shown below o he o he coun ies analysed:
Uni ed S a es
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
-15%
-6%
-6%
-7%
-11%
2030
-48%
-32%
-25%
-15%
-33%
2035
-68%
-63%
-60%
-57%
-55%
2040
-80%
-83%
-86%
-94%
-77%
2045
-88%
-94%
-97%
-102%
-99%
2050
-92%
-98%
-102%
-102%
-102%
yea emissions neu ali y
2066
2053
2048
2043
2046
o e shoo in G
3.2
4.7
5.2
5.8
5.5
s a change a e 2025
-9.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
-4.7%
na ional budge in G
65
Tab. 16: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues USA - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
40
Ac ual change a es in hese g aphics: 2019 - 2024.
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 22 / 42
EU27
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
-22%
-17%
-17%
-17%
-19%
2030
-48%
-37%
-32%
-28%
-35%
2035
-65%
-59%
-54%
-47%
-52%
2040
-77%
-75%
-74%
-74%
-68%
2045
-84%
-86%
-88%
-93%
-85%
2050
-89%
-93%
-96%
-102%
-102%
yea emissions neu ali y
2073
2062
2056
2050
2050
o e shoo in G
1.4
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.0
s a change a e 2025
-7.7%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-3.9%
na ional budge in G
40
Tab. 17: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues EU - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Fig. 5: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es EU – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
India
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
13%
29%
29%
29%
18%
2030
-28%
3%
17%
36%
-9%
2035
-54%
-45%
-42%
-45%
-36%
2040
-70%
-78%
-85%
-98%
-63%
2045
-81%
-93%
-99%
-102%
-90%
2050
-88%
-99%
-102%
-102%
-102%
yea emissions neu ali y
2072
2052
2046
2041
2047
o e shoo in G
1.3
2.5
2.8
3.0
2.7
s a change a e 2025
-8.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
-4.4%
na ional budge in G
46
Tab. 18: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues India - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 23 / 42
The a ge alue in scena io ype RM-3 o 2030 could be compa ible wi h India's NDC (c . Tab. 4
and Tab. 13). Bu in his scena io ype and wi h he assump ions made he e abou he global ame-
wo k da a, India would ha e o achie e emission neu ali y as ea ly as 2046 ins ead o 2070 as se
ou in i s NDC.
Russia
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
-4%
11%
11%
11%
2%
2030
-45%
-26%
-16%
-1%
-28%
2035
-69%
-70%
-72%
-82%
-58%
2040
-83%
-91%
-96%
-102%
-89%
2045
-90%
-98%
-102%
-102%
-102%
2050
-94%
-102%
-102%
-102%
-102%
yea emissions neu ali y
2061
2047
2043
2038
2042
o e shoo in G
1.4
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.2
s a change a e 2025
-10.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
-5.6%
na ional budge in G
24
Tab. 19: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues Russia - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Japan
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
-21%
-16%
-16%
-16%
-17%
2030
-48%
-39%
-35%
-30%
-35%
2035
-66%
-61%
-57%
-51%
-53%
2040
-78%
-77%
-77%
-76%
-71%
2045
-86%
-88%
-89%
-93%
-89%
2050
-91%
-94%
-96%
-101%
-102%
yea emissions neu ali y
2071
2061
2056
2050
2048
o e shoo in G
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
s a change a e 2025
-8.2%
-3.0%
-3.0%
-3.0%
-4.2%
na ional budge in G
15
Tab. 20: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues Japan - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 24 / 42
Nige ia
global CO2 budge 2020 - 2100 in G
550
minimum emissions
-2%
weigh ing popula ion
15%
LUC budge in G
0
scena io ype:
RM-1-cons
RM-5- ad
RM-3-lin
RM-4-quad
RM-6-abs
a ge yea
changes e sus 2019
2025
1%
10%
10%
10%
2%
2030
-18%
13%
24%
34%
-9%
2035
-32%
-2%
15%
38%
-20%
2040
-45%
-24%
-12%
2%
-31%
2045
-55%
-46%
-46%
-56%
-42%
2050
-63%
-65%
-73%
-92%
-53%
yea emissions neu ali y
2097
2076
2064
2054
2072
o e shoo in G
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
s a change a e 2025
-3.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
-2.1%
na ional budge in G
4
Tab. 21: RM Scena io Types - e e ence alues Nige ia - B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Fig. 6: RM Scena io Types – emission pa hs and annual change a es Nige ia – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 25 / 42
Fig. 7: Emission pa hs majo emi e s (RM-3-lin) – B550 / P15 / NNE2 / LUC0
4.3 Exempla y global amewo k da a e lec he NDCs o China and India
In o de o ob ain a ge s o China and India ha mo e in he di ec ion o hei NDCs, he global
budge , he LUC budge and he po en ial o ne nega i e emissions would each ha e o be changed
in a di ec ion and o an ex en ha would signi ican ly inc ease he isk o no success ully limi ing
global wa ming (see Tab. 22 and Tab. 23). In pa icula , he isks o such a massi e nega i e LUC
budge and such a high po en ial o ne nega i e emissions a e ha dly accep able.
41
On he o he hand, he e would hen be a scope o he EU and Japan o p o ide budge s o India
and China. Fo example, wi h he amewo k da a om Tab. 12, he EU would ecei e a budge o
a ound 40 G ; in Tab. 24 i would be a ound 61 G . Howe e , due o he small sha e o he EU and
Japan in global emissions, he esul ing scope is small.
41
See oo no e 8 and (Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2025e).
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 32 / 42
Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on CO2 budge s
Exce p om he main conside a ions o he Fede al Cons i u ional Cou (BVe G, 2021):
“The cons i u ionally ele an empe a u e h eshold o well below 2°C and p e e ably 1.5°C can
in p inciple be con e ed in o a global CO2 esidual budge , which can hen be dis ibu ed among
he s a es. The In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) has named conc e e global
CO2 esidual budge s o a ious empe a u e h esholds and a ious p obabili ies o occu ence
on he basis o a quali y-assu ance p ocedu e, disclosing he emaining unce ain y. On his basis,
he Ge man Ad iso y Council on he En i onmen [ (SRU, 2020)], no e by he au ho s] has also
de e mined a conc e e na ional esidual budge o Ge many om 2020 ha would be compa ible
wi h he Pa is a ge . Due o he unce ain ies and e alua ions con ained he ein, he budge size
de e mined canno cu en ly p o ide a nume ically accu a e measu e o cons i u ional cou e-
iew. The legisla u e s ill has oom o manoeu e. Howe e , i may no ill his space a i s
poli ical disc e ion. I he e is scien i ic unce ain y abou en i onmen ally ele an causal ela-
ionships, A icle 20a o he Basic Law imposes a special du y o ca e on he legisla u e. Acco d-
ing o his, al eady eliable indica ions o he possibili y o se ious o i e e sible impai men s
mus be aken in o accoun . A p esen , a iola ion o his du y o ca e canno be es ablished. I
ollows ha es ima es by he IPCC on he size o he emaining global CO2 esidual budge mus
be aken in o accoun , e en hough hey con ain unce ain ies. The emission le els egula ed in
A icle 4 pa a. 1 sen ence 3 KSG [Clima e P o ec ion Ac , no e by he au ho s] in conjunc ion
wi h Annex 2 would la gely exhaus he esidual budge de e mined by he Ge man Ad iso y
Council on he En i onmen on he basis o he IPCC es ima es un il he yea 2030. Howe e ,
compa ed o he unce ain ies cu en ly included in he calcula ion o he esidual budge , he
deg ee o sho all did no o m a su icien basis o a cons i u ional cou challenge.”
Excu sus 1: Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on CO2 budge s
Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on eedom oppo uni ies o u u e gene a ions
Exce p om he guiding p inciples o he decision o he Fede al Cons i u ional Cou (BVe G,
2021):
“Unde ce ain condi ions, he Basic Law obliges he sa egua ding o eedom p o ec ed by un-
damen al igh s o e ime and he p opo iona e dis ibu ion o oppo uni ies o eedom o e he
gene a ions. In e ms o subjec i e law, undamen al igh s, as an in e empo al sa egua d o ee-
dom, p o ec agains a unila e al shi ing o he g eenhouse gas educ ion bu den imposed by
A icle 20a GG [Basic Law, no e by he au ho s] o he u u e. The objec i e-law p o ec ion man-
da e o A icle 20a o he Basic Law also includes he necessi y o ea he na u al ounda ions
o li e wi h such ca e and o lea e hem o pos e i y in such a condi ion ha u u e gene a ions
could no con inue o p ese e hem only a he p ice o adical abs inence o hei own. The
p o ec ion o u u e eedom also equi es ha he ansi ion o clima e neu ali y be ini ia ed in
good ime. In conc e e e ms, his equi es he ea ly o mula ion o anspa en a ge s o u he
g eenhouse gas educ ions ha p o ide o ien a ion o he necessa y de elopmen and implemen-
a ion p ocesses and gi e hem a su icien deg ee o de elopmen p essu e and planning ce -
ain y.”
Excu sus 2: Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on eedom oppo uni ies o u u e gene a ions
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 33 / 42
Alloca ion o a global CO2 budge
The global communi y has se i sel he ollowing amewo k:
“Acknowledging ha he global na u e o clima e change calls o he wides possible coope a-
ion by all coun ies and hei pa icipa ion in an e ec i e and app op ia e in e na ional e-
sponse, in acco dance wi h hei common bu di e en ia ed esponsibili ies and espec i e capa-
bili ies and hei social and economic condi ions.”
Uni ed Na ions Clima e Change F amewo k Con en ion o 1992
Fi e basic alloca ion app oaches can be dis inguished:48
(1) G and a he ing
(2) Equali y
(3) Responsibili y
(4) Capabili y
(5) Cos e iciency
Fig. 10: Alloca ion p inciples o he dis ibu ion o a emaining global CO2 budge 49
48
See (Dekke , e al., 2025) o a comp ehensi e classi ica ion o e o -sha ing app oaches and an assessmen o hei
in luence on na ional a ge s unde di e en equi y, s a egic, and scien i ic assump ions. See also: (Robiou du Pon , e
al., 2017, p. 40; Robiou du Pon , e al., 2025).
49
„Alloca ion and ai ness p inciples (co ne s o he pen agon, in black) and me hods o quan i y hese p inciples o
combina ions he eo (in colou ed o g ey ex boxes)” (Dekke , e al., 2025, Supplemen a y in o ma ion). Sou ce o
he igu e: (Dekke , e al., 2025, Supplemen a y in o ma ion: Figu e SI.3). O iginal igu e concep based on (Höhne, e
al., 2014).
In he ield labelled ‘Pe capi a con e gence’, ‘o Weigh ing’ has been added o e lec he app oach used in his pape .
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 34 / 42
In addi ion o he alloca ion keys "cu en emissions sha e" (1) and "cu en popula ion sha e" (2)
used he e, o he c i e ia may he e o e be aken in o accoun such as his o ical emissions (3) o
GDP pe capi a (4).
Including his o ical emissions highligh s he esponsibili y o he "old" indus ialised coun ies
o he deca bonisa ion p ocess, bu esul s in un ealis ic e i o ial emission a ge s. Howe e ,
his o ical emissions could play a signi ican ole, especially in compensa ing o Loss and Dam-
age.
The idea behind "capabili y" is ha weal hie coun ies should se hemsel es mo e ambi ious
goals. Since he e is a co ela ion be ween emissions pe capi a and GDP pe capi a o he six
la ges emi e s (c . Tab. 26), he GDP pe capi a c i e ion is al eady indi ec ly mapped ia he
weigh ing o he popula ion. Howe e , he co ela ion coe icien o 0.7 is clea ly below 1, so
ha his mapping is no pe ec . In p inciple, i migh make mo e sense o use c i e ia based on
economic pe o mance o di ec inancial issues such as con ibu ions o Clima e Finance.
co ela ion
pe capi a
emissions in
GDP in TUSD
India
2
7
EU27
7
45
China
8
16
Japan
9
41
Russia
13
28
Uni ed S a es
15
62
co ela ion coe icien
0.68
Tab. 26: GDP pe capi a o he six la ges emi e s
Ins ead o alloca ing a global budge , a global pa h can be alloca ed by using a con e gence model
[also a combina ion o he app oaches (1) and (2)] (c . Sa gl, e al., 2024a). Using a con e gence
model implies an implici weigh ing o he popula ion ha is he same o all coun ies (c .
Wi mann & Wol s eine , 2023). In he Regensbu g Model con e gence app oach, his implici
weigh ing is a ound 12% wi h a linea emission pa h and a pe capi a emissions con e gence a
0.5 (c . Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2024b; Sa gl, e al., 2024b). Due o i s cha ac e is ics, he
Regensbu g Model can be desc ibed as a kind o "mo al loo " o he indus ialised coun ies.
Ano he app oach (5) a e In eg a ed Assessmen Models (IAMs), which can be used o iden i y
globally cos -e icien na ional emission pa hs (c . an Soes , e al., 2021).50 Bu he esul s o
IAMs a e a "black box" o policy make s. Fo he ESPM app oach, on he o he hand, only a ew
amewo k da a need o be speci ied poli ically and equi y aspec s can be explici ly conside ed.
This means ha emissions pa hs can ul ima ely be de e mined poli ically in a anspa en manne
in he ESPM, aking socio-economic ac o s in o accoun .
In con e gence models and IAMs, he na ional budge s and hus he dis ibu ion o a global CO2
budge esul indi ec ly.
A dis inc ion can be made whe he he alloca ion o a global CO2 budge e e s o he ac ual
e i o ial emissions o a coun y o o adable emission igh s. I alloca ion is based on emission
igh s, he scope o clima e jus ice can be conside ed e en g ea e (Rajamani, e al., 2021; Robiou
du Pon , e al., 2025). Howe e , i is impo an o keep in mind ha he esul ing po en ial inan-
cial lows in a subsequen emissions ading should be ealis ic. The po en ial o gene a e ce i i-
ca es wi h di e en weigh ings o he popula ion is discussed in Excu sus 4.
50
Fo a ecen app oach ha de i es na ionally consis en emission a ge s om global wel a e-op imizing IAM sce-
na ios, see ( an de Wijs , e al., 2025).
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 35 / 42
I he alloca ion is based on e i o ial emissions, i would ha e o be examined whe he i makes
sense o coun ies wi h low pe capi a emissions oday o build up an economy ha is mo e ossil
uel-based and has o deca bonise again soon a e wa ds.
When alloca ing a global CO2 budge , i should be aken in o accoun ha i mus also wo k o
coun ies wi h cu en ly high pe capi a emissions o high pe capi a incomes.
The e a e wo aspec s o conside :
Te i o ial emission a ge s o paymen s wi hin he amewo k o global emission ading
(1) mus also be poli ically en o ceable a na ional le el.
(2) should also be economically iable in he sense ha he global economy is no unduly
a ec ed. This would o he wise also ha e a conside able nega i e impac on coun ies wi h
low economic powe .
An e hical jus i ica ion o hese aspec s can be ound in Rawls' "Theo y o Jus ice".
Excu sus 3: Alloca ion o a global CO2 budge
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 36 / 42
Po en ial o emissions ading be ween coun ies
The exempla y na ional CO2 budge s in Tab. 27 in he appendix, which a e de i ed om a ious
global amewo k da a, show ha :
• The lowe he weigh ing o he popula ion, he smalle he scope o newly indus ialising
and de eloping coun ies o gene a e ce i ica es wi hin he amewo k A icle 6 (2) o he
Pa is Ag eemen . The s a ed scopes o he na ional budge s can se e as a measu e o his
leeway.
• A highe he weigh ing o he popula ion, would esul in a highe demand o ce i ica es
o he indus ialised coun ies plus China.
• Ambi ious a ge s, o example hose o he EU, only allow limi ed scope o
compensa ing o he lack o ambi ion o eme ging coun ies such as China and India.
Emissions ading he e o e does no sol e he undamen al p oblem o a igh global CO2 budge .
Fo a u he de elopmen o he Coope a i e Mechanisms unde A icle 6 o he Pa is Ag eemen
wi h ega d o a global emaining CO2 budge , i would make sense ha he NDCs mus s a e he
CO2 budge ha a coun y will claim o i sel h ough he NDC in he u u e. Such explici
na ional CO2 budge s could also acili a e emissions ading be ween coun ies, especially i he
NDCs a e Pa is-compa ible in sum. Howe e , he in eg i y o emissions ading on his basis is
unde mined i NDCs a e no me .
Excu sus 4: Po en ial o emissions ading be ween coun ies
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 37 / 42
Regensbu g Model Scena io Types
F om an o e all pe spec i e o clima e policy, scena ios wi h a nonlinea emissions pa h may be
use ul. Addi ional scena io ypes also o e he possibili y o aking coun y-speci ic ea u es in o
accoun .
The Regensbu g Model Scena io Types RM 1 - 5 a e based on he cou se o he annual change
a es. Annual a es o change a e used in many a eas and a e pa icula ly sui able o desc ibing
a meaning ul cou se o emission pa hs.
Fou basic ypes can be dis inguished in a mono onically dec easing p og ession o he annual
a es o change:
(1) Cons an : cons an annual educ ion a es (RM-1, s aigh line)
(2) Linea : linea ly mono onically dec easing (RM-3; s aigh line)
(3) Conca e: ini ially unde -p opo ional mono onically dec easing (RM-2, RM-4)
(4) Con ex: ini ially o e -p opo ional mono onically dec easing (RM-5)
In addi ion, he scena io ype RM-6 uses linea emission pa hs. Acco dingly, he annual educ ion
a es o RM-6 ha e a conca e cou se and he annual educ ion amoun is cons an .
Wi h ou web app h p://pa hs.clima e-calcula o .in o he di e en scena io ypes can be g aph-
ically aced (see also Fig. 1and e.g. Fig. 4).
Fo a comp ehensi e ma hema ical desc ip ion, we e e o: (Wol s eine & Wi mann, 2024a).
The ad an age o scena io ypes RM 3 - 5 is ha he s a change a e can be speci ied on he
basis o he eal ci cums ances and ha inc easing emissions can also be mapped by speci ying a
posi i e s a change a e.
The ollowing ques ions should be conside ed, when assessing a scena io ype:
(1) Which annual change a es a e when ealis ic?
(2) Does an ini ially slowly ising le el o ambi ion (RM-2/4 and RM-6) imply an unjus i i-
able bu den o he u u e, since his la e implies e y high educ ion a es?
(3) Do high la e educ ion a es make sense, i hey p o ide a longe lead ime o he nec-
essa y in es men s and he in es men s could hen a he be made wi hin he amewo k
o no mal in es men cycles? Howe e , his equi es a e y c edible clima e policy
backed by e ec i e ins umen s.
(4) Does an ini ially apidly ising le el o ambi ion (RM-3 and RM-5) con ey a mo e c ed-
ible clima e p o ec ion policy ha c ea es planning secu i y o public and p i a e in es -
men s in a ossil- ee u u e?
The Ge man Ad iso y Council on he En i onmen (SRU) ecommends o e ain om linea
emission pa hs (RM-6): "A slow s a , hoping o s eep emission educ ions in la e yea s, jeop-
a dises compliance wi h he budge and clima e a ge s" (SRU, 2020, p. 56). This a gumen
would also apply o he scena io ypes RM-2 and RM-4.
The decision o he Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional Cou on he Clima e P o ec ion Ac also im-
plici ly poses he ques ion o wha annual change a es we mus accep oday so ha he eedom
o u u e gene a ions is no unduly es ic ed (see Excu sus 2: Ge man Fede al Cons i u ional
Cou on eedom oppo uni ies o u u e gene a ions).
To a oid e y high annual educ ion a es in la e yea s, he scena io ypes RM-3 and RM-5 a e
sui able.
Excu sus 5: Regensbu g Model Scena io Types
Calcula ion o Pa is-compa ible Emission Ta ge s wi h he ESPM Page 38 / 42
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