Funded by he Eu opean Union (10108307). Views and opinions exp essed
a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no necessa ily e lec hose
o he Eu opean Union o EC-CINEA. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he
g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
Eu ope-LAND ca ds and Success S o ies o modelling ools
Complemen ing he deli e able D4.1 “Da abases o exis ing LU/LC pa e ns and spa ial modelling
ools” we p o ide use - iendly, hands-on guidance ools o selec ed models/modelling ools o
en i onmen al domains ela ed o he p ojec ocus in he o m o compac in o ma ion ca ds, and
ela ed success s o ies ha illus a e how he espec i e model can be applied in bo h esea ch and
p ac ice. These ools a e p o ided o i e en i onmen al domains co e ing LULC, Clima e, Hyd ology,
Fo es , and Biodi e si y (see Tables 1 –5).
Ca ds o modelling ools
Fo modelling ools each o i e abo e men ioned domains key en i onmen al s anda dized model
ca ds we e de eloped o summa ise he model echnical, unc ional, and p ac ical cha ac e is ics.
The pu pose o he modelling ca d is o p o ide a concise and accessible o e iew ha acili a es
compa ison ac oss models.
Each ca d includes key de ails such as he model’s ull name, de elope /ins i u ion, yea / e sion,
so wa e en i onmen (e.g., Te Se , R, QGIS, Py hon), and modelling p inciples (e.g., ule-based,
s ochas ic, machine lea ning). I also de ails he ypes o inpu da a equi ed (e.g., land co e maps,
d i e s like slope o popula ion densi y), co e modelling capabili ies, and scena io de elopmen
unc ions. In addi ion o echnical in o ma ion, he ca ds highligh in ended use s (e.g., planne s,
academics, NGOs), ha dwa e and so wa e equi emen s, and ex ensions o plug-ins i applicable.
Whe e help ul, we included a schema ic diag am o he modelling p ocess and links o online
documen a ion o u o ials.
These ca ds se e as essen ial open access e e ence ools o use s seeking o unde s and o apply
LUCC models in esea ch o planning, and a e especially use ul o selec ing a model based on p ojec
needs, da a a ailabili y, o spa ial scale.
Success S o ies o modelling ools
The ca ds a e u he complemen ed by selec ed success s o ies based on open access scien i ic
pape s ha showcase i s p ac ical applica ion in a Eu opean and selec ed non-Eu opean case s udies.
These s o ies we e ex ac ed om ecen high-quali y pee - e iewed publica ions and a e mean o
illus a e how each model has been e ec i ely used o simula e o analyse land change in eal-wo ld
se ings.
The success s o ies include essen ial de ails such as he s udy a ea (e.g., Romania, Hunga y, I aly), he
modelling ime ame, he ypes o land co e analysed, and he goals o he p ojec (e.g., p edic ing
de o es a ion, assessing u ban sp awl, e alua ing clima e- ela ed land change). Fu he mo e, each
success s o y summa ises he modelling p ocess (e.g., calib a ion me hods, ansi ion ules, scena io
assump ions), alida ion esul s (e.g., Kappa, ROC, FOM), and policy o managemen implica ions.
Funded by he Eu opean Union (10108307). Views and opinions exp essed
a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no necessa ily e lec hose
o he Eu opean Union o EC-CINEA. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he
g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
Fo example, he CLUE-S model was used in Romania o p edic o es co e un il 2050 unde
di e en scena ios, p o iding ac ionable insigh s o o es managemen and ca bon seques a ion.
SECLAND model in Aus ia o p ojec u u e land-use un il 2050 unde clima e and socioeconomic
change in he LTSER egion Eisenwu zen.
These na a i es no only demons a e he s eng hs and limi a ions o each model bu also enhance
unde s anding o hei eal-wo ld u ili y, guiding u u e use s in how o design and implemen LUCC
modelling p ojec s e ec i ely.
A summa y o he included modelling ools and hei key cha ac e is ics is p o ided in ables 1 –5.
Table 1. O e iew and key cha ac e is ics o LULC models
Model
Use o LULC
Sui able Fo
CA-Ma ko (Cellula Au oma a–
Ma ko Chain)
Uses ansi ion p obabili ies and
neighbou hood ules o simula e spa ial
dynamics
U ban expansion, de o es a ion, and
long- e m LU/LC ends
CLUE-S (Con e sion o Land Use &
E ec s – Small scale)
Spa ial alloca ion model combining demand
wi h s a is ical sui abili y maps
Regional/na ional scena io-based
land use p ojec ions
GEOMOD (Geog aphic Modelling
Sys em)
P edic s land change wi h logis ic eg ession
and sui abili y maps
Simple land use p edic ion wi h
limi ed da a equi emen s
LCM-Clima e (Land Change Modele
wi h Clima e)
In eg a es LULC ansi ions wi h clima e
a iables
Coupled land–clima e s udies,
mi iga ion/adap a ion
LSTM (neu al ne )
Deep lea ning model using pas land co e
and d i e s
Da a-d i en LULC p edic ion wi h
high spa io- empo al accu acy
MOLUSCE (Modules o Land Use
Change E alua ion)
Uses mul iple ML algo i hms plus CA o
ansi ions
U ban dynamics, spa io- empo al
modelling, scena io analysis
SEC-LAND (Socio-Ecosys em Change)
Spa ially explici scena io modelling o socio-
ecological sys ems
Pa icipa o y scena io de elopmen ,
landscape ansi ions
SLEUTH (Slope, Land use, Exclusion,
U ban ex en , T anspo a ion,
Hillshade)
CA model using physical pa ame e s o
model u ban g ow h
His o ical end-calib a ed u ban
expansion
FLUS (Fu u e Land Use Simula ion)
In eg a es human/en i onmen al d i e s in
CA amewo k
Scena io analysis, sus ainable land-
use s a egy de elopmen
Funded by he Eu opean Union (10108307). Views and opinions exp essed
a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no necessa ily e lec hose
o he Eu opean Union o EC-CINEA. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he
g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
Table 2. O e iew and key cha ac e is ics o included clima e models
Model
Focus
Sui able Fo
LULC E ec on Ou pu s
JULES (Join UK Land
En i onmen Simula o )
Rep esen s land use change ia
Plan Func ional Types (PFTs)
Land su ace in e ac ions
in Ea h sys em models
Al e s ene gy, ca bon,
ni ogen, and wa e luxes
LPJ-GUESS (Lund-
Po sdam-Jena Gene al
Ecosys em Simula o )
Simula es ege a ion dynamics
and land managemen
Ecosys em dynamics,
clima e and land-use
impac s udies
In luences biogeochemical
cycles, wa e balance,
ege a ion
MEGAN (Model o
Emissions o Gases and
Ae osols om Na u e)
Requi es ege a ion ypes and
LAI o emissions modelling
Biogenic emissions,
a mosphe ic chemis y,
ai quali y
A ec s emissions o
isop ene, BVOCs, ae osols
ORCHIDEE (O ganizing
Ca bon and Hyd ology
in Dynamic Ecosys ems)
Maps LULC o PFTs and
includes land use change
dynamics
Ca bon, ni ogen and
wa e cycling; Ea h
sys em modelling
D i es luxes o ca bon,
wa e , and ene gy
GCAM (Global Change
Analysis Model)
De ailed LULC componen ;
models land alloca ion and
changes
IAMs, clima e-ene gy-
land policy assessmen s
Impac s emissions, ene gy,
ood, land, wa e sec o s
CLM (Communi y Land
Model)
Uses sub-g id land uni s and
PFTs, includes u ban and
managed lands
Land su ace simula ions
in CESM; biogeochemical
p ocesses
Impac s su ace luxes,
wa e , ene gy, ca bon
Biome-BGC
(Biogeochemical Cycles
Model)
Uses si e and land co e
pa ame e s o PFT-speci ic
simula ions
Ecosys em p oduc i i y,
clima e change impac ,
biogeochemical luxes
A ec s GPP, NPP, ET, LAI,
NEE e c.
WRF (Wea he
Resea ch and
Fo ecas ing Model)
Includes u ban canopy models
and land su ace p ocesses
Wea he p edic ion,
egional clima e, ai
quali y, u ban clima e
In luences hea island
e ec , ain all, wind ields
REMO (Regional
Clima e Model)
Couples wi h land su ace
models and includes LULC
dynamics
Regional clima e
simula ions, high-
esolu ion impac
modelling
A ec s ain all,
e apo anspi a ion,
hyd ological eedback
RegCM (Regional
Clima e Model)
Suppo s land su ace schemes
(e.g. CLM, BATS), models LU
change
Regional downscaling,
clima e impac s udies,
CORDEX
Al e s land-a mosphe e
eedbacks and su ace
clima e
DANUBIA (Modula
En i onmen al
Simula ion F amewo k)
Includes de ailed land use da a
o spa ially explici scena io
analysis
Wa e go e nance, land-
use/clima e in e ac ion,
socio-en i onmen al
modelling
A ec s wa e demand,
hyd ological p ocesses, and
land managemen
esponses
Funded by he Eu opean Union (10108307). Views and opinions exp essed
a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no necessa ily e lec hose
o he Eu opean Union o EC-CINEA. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he
g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
Table 3. O e iew and key cha ac e is ics o included hyd ological models
Model
Focus
Sui able Fo
LULC E ec on Ou pu s
SWAT (Soil & Wa e Assessmen
Tool)
Uses land use da a o
hyd ological simula ion
Basin-scale wa e
quan i y and quali y
Changes in land co e a ec
uno , e osion, nu ien s
PRECIS (P o iding REgional
Clima es o Impac s S udies)
Uses LULC o downscaling
bounda ies
Regional clima e impac
assessmen s
Al e s localised clima e
a iables ( ain all, ex emes)
EPIC (E osion-P oduc i i y
Impac Calcula o )
In eg a es land managemen
and c op o a ions
Field-scale c op yield,
soil, and e osion
Land use changes a ec
i iga ion, uno , and e osion
MIKE SHE
In eg a es land co e in o
coupled su ace-g oundwa e
p ocesses
In eg a ed su ace-
g oundwa e wa e shed
modelling
Land use in luences
e apo anspi a ion,
in il a ion, uno
VIC (Va iable In il a ion
Capaci y)
Uses LULC in su ace-wa e
pa ame e isa ion
La ge-scale hyd ological
modelling
Land co e changes a ec soil
mois u e and s eam low
HBV (Hyd ologiska By åns
Va enbalansa delning)
In eg a es LULC in uno
simula ion
Ca chmen wa e
balance and s eam low
LULC changes in luence uno
and low pa e ns
TOPMODEL
Uses LULC in opog aphy-
d i en hyd ology
Sa u a ed g oundwa e
low and uno
Land co e a ec s soil
mois u e dis ibu ion and
uno
HEC-HMS (Hyd ologic Modelling
Sys em)
Uses LULC o low simula ions
Flood o ecas ing and
wa e esou ces
managemen
Land use changes a ec uno
olume and lood peaks
RHESSys (Regional Hyd o-
Ecologic Simula ion Sys em)
In eg a es LULC in
ecohyd ological p ocesses
In eg a ed ca bon-wa e
dynamics a ca chmen
scale
LULC changes in luence
e apo anspi a ion, uno ,
nu ien s
Funded by he Eu opean Union (10108307). Views and opinions exp essed
a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no necessa ily e lec hose
o he Eu opean Union o EC-CINEA. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he
g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
Table 4. O e iew and key cha ac e is ics o included o es modelling ools
Model
Focus
Sui able Fo
LULC E ec on Ou pu s
iLand ( o es LANDscape and
dis u bance)
Fo es landscape
dynamics and
dis u bance
Resilience, biodi e si y,
ecosys em se ices
Changes in land use al e
egene a ion, ca bon s o age, i e
sp ead, di e si y
LANDIS-II (LANdscape
DIs u bance & Succession)
Fo es succession and
dis u bance modelling
Policy e alua ion, o es
planning
LULC shapes dis u bance sp ead,
species mix, age s uc u e
3-PG (Physiological P inciples
P edic ing G ow h)
Fo es g ow h and
p oduc i i y
Yield modelling, ca bon
accoun ing
Land use shi s g ow h po en ial,
p oduc i i y and ca bon luxes
FORMIND (Fo es Model o
INdi idual-based Dynamics)
T ee compe i ion in
opical o es s
T opical o es
managemen , clima e
change
A ec s biomass eco e y, species
composi ion, egene a ion capaci y
SORTIE-ND (Spa ially Explici
Indi idual-based Fo es
Dynamics)
T ee-le el spa ial
dynamics
Fine-scale o es ecology
Land co e in luences species
coexis ence and succession
dynamics
Fo Clim (Fo es succession &
clima e change model)
Fo es succession and
clima e impac s
Tempe a e o es
de elopmen , clima e
impac s
Land co e in luences long- e m
species composi ion and s uc u e
EFISCEN (Eu opean Fo es
In o ma ion Scena io model)
Fo es esou ce
p ojec ions
Policy scena ios, wood
supply
LULC changes a ec ha es able
wood and age dynamics
PICUS (Pa ch model o o es
dynamics)
Spa ially explici pa ch-
based dynamics
Fo es s uc u e and
biodi e si y s udies
Land co e a ec s egene a ion,
compe i ion, g ow h he e ogenei y
CARAIB (CARbon Assimila ion in
he Biosphe e)
Vege a ion–clima e
in e ac ions
Global ca bon and wa e
lux modelling
LULC changes impac ca bon, wa e ,
and ene gy luxes
FORMOSAIC (Fo es mosaic
dynamics simula o )
Spa io- empo al o es
dynamics
Dis u bance dynamics,
succession
Land co e de e mines gap
dynamics, succession, and di e si y
Fo es GALES (Fo es GALE and
wind h ow model)
Wind damage isk
assessmen
Wind h ow ulne abili y,
managemen
LULC in luences exposu e, damage
ex en , and s abili y
Funded by he Eu opean Union (10108307). Views and opinions exp essed
a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no necessa ily e lec hose
o he Eu opean Union o EC-CINEA. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he
g an ing au ho i y can be held esponsible o hem.
Table 5. O e iew and key cha ac e is ics o included biodi e si y modelling ools o species and
ecosys em assessmen s
Model (Name)
Focus
Sui able Fo
LULC E ec on Ou pu s
MaxEn (Maximum En opy)
Species dis ibu ion
modelling (SDM)
Species ange p edic ions,
conse a ion planning
LULC shi s p edic ed habi a
sui abili y and anges
BIOMOD2 (R package)
Ensemble species
dis ibu ion models
Biodi e si y o ecas ing,
conse a ion
LULC de e mines habi a
a ailabili y and a ec s accu acy
InVEST (In eg a ed Valua ion o
Ecosys em Se ices)
Ecosys em se ices and
habi a quali y
Land-use planning, ade-
o analysis
Land-use pa e ns d i e habi a
agmen a ion and quali y
GLOBIO (Global Biodi e si y
Model)
Biodi e si y in ac ness
(Mean Species
Abundance)
Global biodi e si y policy
suppo (e.g., IPBES)
Reduced habi a lowe s
biodi e si y in ac ness
AIM-biodi e si y (Asia-Paci ic
In eg a ed Model)
Global/ egional
biodi e si y unde u u e
scena ios
Scena io analysis,
ex inc ion isk assessmen
Land-use changes d i e species
loss and ex inc ion isk
SAR Models (Species–A ea
Rela ionship)
Empi ical species-a ea
p edic ions
Es ima ing species loss
om habi a con e sion
Habi a loss leads o
p opo ional species ex inc ion
Madingley (Gene al Ecosys em
Model)
T ai -based ecosys em
model
Global ecosys em s uc u e
and unc ion o ecas s
Land co e change al e s
habi a and ophic ene gy
lows
RangeShi e
Spa ially explici
dispe sal and
demog aphy
Species ange-shi
simula ions, connec i i y
planning
F agmen a ion and land co e
change a ec dispe sal
PREDICTS (P ojec ing Responses o
Ecological Di e si y in Changing
Te es ial Sys ems)
Global impac s o land
use
Global biodi e si y
p ojec ions,
SDG/IPBES/CBD epo ing
Changes in land use di ec ly
al e species ichness,
abundance, and in ac ness
BILBI (Biogeog aphic Modelling)
Be a-di e si y and
u no e modelling
Landscape o global-scale
di e si y assessmen s
Land co e change shi s
communi y composi ion and
u no e
MOL (Map o Li e)
Species dis ibu ion and
ange mapping
Conse a ion p io i isa ion
and ange mapping
LULC change shi s occu ence
p obabili ies and ange
bounda ies
