Meie ieks, Daniel; Schaub, Max
A icle — Published Ve sion
Te o ism and child mo ali y
Heal h Economics
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
John Wiley & Sons
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Meie ieks, Daniel; Schaub, Max (2024) : Te o ism and child mo ali y, Heal h
Economics, ISSN 1099-1050, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, Vol. 33, Iss. 1, pp. 21-40,
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1 | INTRODUCTION
Te o ism has become mo e common and deadly a e 2001. 1 This is especially ue o A ica, a con inen ha , o e he las
15yea s, has seen a spike in e o is ac i i y (Gaibulloe & Sandle ,2019). A he same ime, he con inen is also plagued
by compa a i ely high and pe sis ing le els o child mo ali y (Bu s ein e al.,2019). Recognizing his concu ence, we ask
whe he e o ism leads o an inc ease in child mo ali y, and i so, why.
To his e ec , we s udy he impac o e o ism on child mo ali y o a sample o 52 A ican coun ies be ween 2000 and
2017. We combine geo-coded da a on e o ism wi h highly spa ially disagg ega ed da a on child mo ali y and mo bidi y a
he 0.5×0.5° g id le el. This allows us o ack child mo ali y and i s likely causes on a sub-na ional le el. We con ibu e
o he li e a u e in se e al ways. Fi s , by using high- esolu ion da a o much o Sub-Saha an A ica and pa s o No he n
A ica o e a long ime span, we p o ide sys ema ic e idence on he e o ism-child mo ali y nexus in his pa o he wo ld.
Thus, ou s udy complemen s a small numbe o case-s udies on he consequences o e o ism o child heal h in A ica.
Fo Bu kina Faso and Nige ia, his e idence indica es ha e o ism impedes access o pe ina al heal hca e (Chukwuma &
Ekha o -Mobayode,2019; D ue z e al.,2020). Fo Came oon, i has been shown ha he Boko Ha am insu gency is asso-
cia ed wi h lowe heigh - o-weigh a ios in child en unde i e, likely caused by in ec ious diseases and he unde u iliza ion
o heal h se ices (Kaila e al.,2021). We also add o ex an esea ch on he po en ially ad e se e ec s o e o ism on child
heal h mo e b oadly. Fo example, se e al empi ical s udies ind ha in u e o exposu e o e o is a acks is associa ed wi h
lowe in an weigh due o ma e nal s ess and poo nu i ion (e.g., Camacho,2008; Laude dale,2006; Mansou & Rees,2012;
1WZB Be lin Social Science Cen e , Be lin,
Ge many
2Uni e si y o Hambu g, Hambu g,
Ge many
Co espondence
Max Schaub.
Email: max.schaub@uni-hambu g.de
Abs ac
How does e o ism a ec child mo ali y? We use geo-coded da a on e o ism and
spa ially disagg ega ed da a on child mo ali y o s udy he ela ionship be ween
bo h a iables o 52 A ican coun ies be ween 2000 and 2017 a he 0.5×0.5°
g id le el. Ou es ima es sugges ha mode a e inc eases in e o ism a e linked
o se e al housand addi ional annual dea hs o child en unde he age o i e. A
panel e en -s udy poin s o economic e ec s ha a e la ge and compound o e
ime. In e oga ing ou da a, we show ha he di ec impac o e o ism ends o be
e y small. Ins ead, we heo ize ha e o ism causes child mo ali y p ima ily by
igge ing ad e se beha io al esponses by pa en s, medical wo ke s, and policy-
make s. We p o ide en a i e e idence in suppo o his a gumen .
KEYWORDS
A ica, child mo ali y, panel e en -s udy, e o ism
JEL CLASSIFICATION
D74, I10, I12
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Te o ism and child mo ali y
Daniel Meie ieks1 | Max Schaub1,2
DOI: 10.1002/hec.4757
Recei ed: 6 No embe 2022 Re ised: 25 Augus 2023 Accep ed: 29 Augus 2023
This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal
wo k is p ope ly ci ed.
© 2023 The Au ho s. Heal h Economics published by John Wiley & Sons L d.
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB
22
Quin ana-Domeque & Ródenas-Se ano,2017). 2 Second, ou ich and ine-g ained da a makes i possible o apply a a ie y o
econome ic me hods o mo e con incingly app oxima e causal es ima es. Thi d, we explo e po en ial di ec and indi ec pa h-
ways om e o ism o child mo ali y. Finally, we complemen he empi ical li e a u e on he ole o la ge-scale ci il con lic
(ci il wa ) in child heal h. 3 We belie e ha ou ocus on e o ism is wo hwhile because o he subs an ial di e ences be ween
e o ism and o he o ms o la ge -scale a med con lic . Compa ed o in e s a e and ci il wa s, he le el o iolence associa ed
wi h e o ism ends o be e y low (Gaibulloe & Sandle ,2019). 4 Mo eo e , unlike ebel o egula a mies, e o is g oups
do no ypically con ol e i o y, meaning ha e o ism ends o c ea e mo e di used and punc ua ed h ea s a he han he
objec i ely high h ea le els a ec ing la ge a eas associa ed wi h ci il and in e s a e wa s (Sambanis,2008). These di e ences
imply ha he di ec e ec s o iolence on child mo ali y—due o di ec a ge ing o he des uc ion o heal h in as uc u e,
o example,—ough o be much mo e limi ed. Ins ead, wha e e e ec we de ec is likely d i en by indi ec e ec s s emming
om beha io al esponses o e o is iolence.
Employing a wo-way ixed-e ec s app oach, we show ha highe le els o e o is ac i i y—ope a ionalized as a e o -
ism index ha accoun s o bo h he equency and in ensi y o e o ism—is associa ed wi h highe le els o child mo ali y.
Using a panel e en -s udy app oach and a complimen a y ins umen al- a iable (IV) app oach ha help o alle ia e conce ns
abou causal iden i ica ion, we come o he same conclusion. The es ima ed e ec s a e economically subs an i e, sugges ing
ha plausible inc eases in e o is ac i i y a e linked o se e al housand addi ional dea hs o child en unde he age o i e
pe yea . In e oga ing ou da a, we show ha he di ec impac o e o ism (e.g., in e ms o i s le hali y and des uc ion o
public heal h in as uc u e) ends o be small. This, in u n, sugges s ha inc eases in child mo ali y p ima ily eme ge h ough
he beha io al esponse o economic agen s (e.g., pa en s, doc o s, medical s a , aid wo ke s and policymake s) o e o ism.
Indeed, we p o ide en a i e e idence ha highe le els o e o is ac i i y un a o ably co ela e wi h se e al p oxima e causes
o child mo ali y such as he incidence o mala ia and dia hea, accina ion a es and malnou ishmen .
The es o his pape is o ganized as ollows. Sec ion2 discusses po en ial links be ween e o ism and child mo ali y and
de elops a es able hypo hesis. We in oduce he da a on child mo ali y and e o ism in Sec ion3. In Sec ions4 and 5, we
empi ically examine he e o ism-child mo ali y nexus. In Sec ion6, we explo e po en ial ansmission channels om e o -
ism o child heal h. Sec ion7 concludes.
2 | DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF TERRORISM ON CHILD MORTALITY
2.1 | Di ec e ec s
Mos ob iously, e o ism can ad e sely a ec child mo ali y when child en a e killed in a e o is a ack. Wha is mo e, chil-
d en may be wounded in an a ack in ways ha a e e en ually le hal. Simila ly, e o ism may kill o incapaci a e he child en's
pa en s, doc o s and o he medical pe sonnel o o eign aid wo ke s. This, in u n, may also con ibu e o child mo ali y by
denying child en pa en al o medical ca e. Finally, e o ism may des oy public heal h in as uc u e (e.g., hospi als), which
would likewise ha e di ec ad e se consequences o child en's heal h.
S ill, while he di ec e ec s o e o ism h ough he des uc ion o human li e and he heal h in as uc u e a e eminen ly
plausible, we do no expec hem o a ec child mo ali y in no iceable ways. This is because e o ism does no p oduce
many ic ims, especially in compa ison o many o he sou ces o dea h. Fo ins ance, A ce(2019) es ima es e o ism o lie
in he bo om nine pe cen o he global bu den o disease. Tha is, i s bu den is simila o ha o Dengue e e and Vi amin A
de iciency (A ce,2019,p.390). The di ec impac o e o ism is also mino compa ed o o he sou ces o iolen dea h. Fo
ins ance, o he ea ly 2010s, Kamp ad and Liem(2021) epo ha globally he e we e oughly hal a million dea hs pe yea
om homicide (implying a homicide a e o 6.2 pe 100,000 indi iduals), while e o ism accoun ed o app oxima ely 38,000
dea hs pe yea (implying a e o ism casual y a e o app oxima ely 0.5 pe 100,000 indi iduals).
2.2 | Indi ec e ec s
I is mo e p obable ha he ad e se consequences o e o ism o child mo ali y a e due o i s indi ec e ec s. These indi ec
e ec s eme ge om he beha io al esponse o a a ie y o economic agen s (e.g., pa en s, especially mo he s; doc o s and o he
heal hca e wo ke s; he go e nmen ) o e o ism. This esponse, in u n, a ec s bo h he demand o and supply o child en's
heal hca e in ways ha inc ease he isk o child mo ali y.
The pa en al pe spec i e conce ns he demand o child en's heal hca e. He e, we expec pa en s o be in imida ed by e o -
ism. Indeed, he p oduc ion o ea and in imida ion o poli ical le e age is a majo goal o e o is o ganiza ions (Gaibulloe
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB 23
& Sandle ,2019). Wha is mo e, Suns ein(2003) s esses he ole o p obabili y neglec , whe e indi iduals ocus on a bad
ou come (in ou case, being ha med by a e o is a ack) bu do no conside ha his ou come is e y unlikely o occu (as
e o ism is e y a e). Suns ein(2003) a gues ha he p obabili y o ha m is especially likely o be neglec ed when people's
emo ions a e ac i a ed such as when hei child en's li es a e h ea ened. The in e play be ween ea and p obabili y neglec is
consequen ly expec ed o lead o a beha io al esponse o e o ism on he pa o a ec ed pa en s ha is po en ially excessi e.
Fo ins ance, pa en s may o ego p e en i e ca e (e.g., accina ions o egula check-ups) ou o ea ha hei child en will be
ic imized by e o ism—a beha io ha is expec ed o e en ually con ibu e o highe le els o child mo ali y (e.g., D ue z
e al.,2020; Rod íguez,2022). Tha is, he in e ac ion be ween ea o e o ism and p obabili y neglec may lead pa en s o
weigh he isk o hei child being ha med by e o ism mo e s ongly han he child's isk o being a ec ed by in ec ious
diseases o o he p e en able causes o ha m, e en hough his is no wa an ed gi en he ac ual p obabili ies o su e ing ha m.
An s onge - han-wa an ed beha io al esponse due o ea o e o ism may also a ec he supply o child en's heal h-
ca e. Doc o s, medical s a and in e na ional aid wo ke s may s ay a home a he han go o wo k, which could con ibu e o
ad e se consequences o child en's heal h. A he same ime, howe e , one could a gue ha he ole o ea as a d i ing o ce
o beha io al change in esponse o e o ism is less ele an o medical and aid wo ke s as hei p o essional expe ience may
make hem less ulne able o emo ional shocks.
Howe e , we can s ill hypo hesize abou beha io al esponses o e o ism by medical and aid wo ke s by conside ing
a a ional-choice pe spec i e. Indeed, a numbe o heo e ical con ibu ions apply his pe spec i e o p o ide an economic
analysis o e o ism (e.g., Becke & Rubins ein, 2011; Ecks ein & Tsiddon,2004; Nao , 2006; Sandle & Ende s,2004;
Schneide e al.,2015). The a ional-choice app oach posi s ha indi iduals a e u ili y-maximize s, and ha e o ism a ec s
he indi idual u ili y-maximiza ion p ocess by in luencing he cos s and bene i s associa ed wi h ce ain ac i i ies, po en ially
e ec ing beha io al changes when new u ili y-maximizing choices eme ge. Fo one, e o ism is expec ed o educe he bene i s
associa ed wi h ce ain choices o ac ion o doc o s, medical s a and in e na ional aid wo ke s. Fo ins ance, i may educe he
bene i s o wo k when pa en s do no come o see doc o and hus do no pay o he doc o 's se ices. Fo ano he , e o ism
may impose addi ional cos s on medical and aid wo ke s, o example, by necessi a ing addi ional in es men in o pe sonal
secu i y. Ce e is pa ibus, he ad en o e o ism is hus expec ed o make ac i i ies ha may in ol e encoun e ing e o ism
(e.g., p o iding aid o o wo king and making pa ien isi s in e o - idden a eas) less a ac i e. Ins ead, doc o s, medical s a
and in e na ional aid wo ke s a e expec ed o op o hose ac i i ies ha a oid e o ism as hose ac i i ies a e now mo e likely
o maximize u ili y. Fo ins ance, high-skilled doc o s and medical wo ke s may mig a e away om e o -a ec ed a eas (e.g.,
D ehe e al.,2011). Such beha io al adjus men s ha ollow om u ili y-maximiza ion conside a ions could e en ually esul
in poo e supply o child heal hca e and highe le els o child mo ali y.
Finally, e o ism may ad e sely a ec he supply o heal hca e by in luencing public spending decisions. Fo one, he
h ea o e o ism may lead o inc eased public spending on secu i y (e.g., Ce ik & Ricco,2020; Gup a e al.,2004). We can
explain his shi in spending by poli ical conside a ions, whe e policymake s o e o e s (who a e in imida ed by e o ism)
secu i y spending as a solu ion o he e o is h ea ; by sa is ying public demand o secu i y in his manne , policymake s
hope o maximize o e suppo . Al e na i ely, one may a gue ha he go e nmen consciously wi hd aws public spending om
e o - idden a eas as a o m o punishmen when i suspec s he local popula ion o suppo e o is ac i i y. In any e en , a
shi o wi hd awal o spending may come a he expense o public heal h expendi u e, especially when esou ces a e sca ce
in he i s place. Because o e o ism-induced cu s in spending he e may be ewe esou ces a ailable o clinics, doc o s,
p e en ion and accina ion p og ams o heal h educa ion. This lack o unding, in u n, is expec ed o ad e sely a ec child
heal h.
2.3 | Main hypo hesis
In line wi h ou discussion, ou main hypo hesis is as ollows:
Highe le els o e o is ac i i y esul in a highe isk o child mo ali y.
In de ail, e o ism may ad e sely a ec child en's heal h, i s , h ough he des uc ion o human li e and he heal h in a-
s uc u e (di ec e ec s) and, second, due o he esponse o economic agen s ha unde mines he adequa e demand o and
supply o child en's heal hca e (indi ec e ec s). The beha io al esponse o e o ism may be ela ed o psychological ( ea
and p obabili y neglec ), economic- a ional (u ili y maximiza ion) and poli ical (public suppo and o e maximiza ion) mech-
anisms. Gi en ha e o ism's des uc i eness ends o be compa a i ely low, we expec he a ious indi ec consequences o
e o ism o be he main eason o he hypo hesized de imen al e ec o e o ism on child en's heal h.
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB
24
3 | DATA
To es ou main hypo hesis, we use sub-na ional da a agg ega ed a he 0.5×0.5° (∼55×55km a he equa o ) g id-yea le el
using he PRIO-GRID (Tolle sen e al.,2012) o a maximum o 52 A ican coun ies and e i o ies o he 2000–2017 pe iod. 5
The summa y s a is ics o all a iables employed in ou analysis a e epo ed in Supplemen a y Table1.
3.1 | Measu ing child heal h ou comes
Ou main ou come o in e es is child mo ali y, measu ed as he p obabili y o a gi en child o die be o e eaching he age o
i e. The da a comes om Bu s ein e al.(2019) who p o ide high- esolu ion (5km
2) es ima es o low- and middle-income
coun ies co e ing he whole o mainland A ica and Madagasca o he 2000–2017 pe iod. Thei geospa ial es ima es a e
de i ed om he collec ion o a ailable Demog aphic and Heal h Su eys, UNICEF Mul iple Indica o Clus e Su eys and
o he coun y-speci ic su eys. 6 We agg ega e hei da a o he PRIO-GRID le el. As pa o ou obus ness checks, we also use
wo al e na i e child mo ali y measu es om Bu s ein e al.(2019), neo-na al mo ali y (i.e., he isk o dea h o a new-bo n
in he i s 28days a e bi h) and in an mo ali y (i.e., he mo ali y isk unde he age o one).
As shown in Figu e1, ega dless o which indica o we choose, mo ali y a es gene ally saw a no iceable decline o e ou
pe iod o obse a ion. Fo ins ance, he a e age isk o dea h o child en unde he age o i e was 12.8% in he yea 2000
bu ell o app oxima ely se en pe cen in he yea 2017. Fo ou subsequen analysis, his implies ha es ima ing he e ec o
e o ism on mo ali y ou comes p ima ily means assessing whe he e o ism p oduced conspicuous se backs om he gene al
downwa d end in mo ali y.
3.2 | Measu ing e o is ac i i y
Ou main independen a iable is an index o e o is ac i i y. Simila o he index o Ecks ein and Tsiddon(2004), i is de ined
as he sum o he pe capi a numbe o e o is a acks and pe capi a numbe o e o ism casual ies pe g id-yea obse a ion.
The e m “ e o ism casual ies” e e s o he numbe o indi iduals ha a e killed in a e o is a ack. The index e lec s bo h
he equency (numbe o e o is a acks) and e oci y (numbe o casual ies) o e o ism. To educe he in luence o ou lie s,
we apply he in e se hype bolic sine ans o ma ion o ou e o ism index. 7 In weighing ou e o ism a iable by popula ion
size, we ollow Je e and S adelmann(2019). They sugges ha pe capi a measu es o e o ism a e mo e e lec i e o he
(indi idual) isk associa ed wi h e o ism. As s essed abo e, we a gue ha i is his e y isk ha explains how e o ism may
(indi ec ly) a ec child mo ali y. Simila popula ion-adjus ed e o ism indica o s a e used in Ta a es(2004), Gaibulloe and
Sandle (2011) and Meie ieks and G ies(2013).
FIGURE 1 Mo ali y a es,
2000–2017.
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB 25
The da a on g id-le el popula ion size (used o calcula e he pe capi a a es) come om he LandScan high- esolu ion
global popula ion da a se (B igh e al.,2018). The e o ism da a a e om he Global Te o ism Da abase (GTD). The GTD
was i s desc ibed in LaF ee and Dugan(2007). I collec s in o ma ion on e o is ac i i y om epu able media ou le s. 8 Fo
a e o is e en o be eco ded in he GTD, i mus be documen ed by a leas one high-quali y media sou ce (e.g., a enowned
in e na ional newspape such as he New Yo k Times). To be conside ed a e o is e en , i mus also (1) be in en ional, (2)
en ail some le el o iolence o h ea o iolence and (3) be commi ed by non-s a e ac o s, meaning ha iolence by s a e
ac o s is excluded (LaF ee & Dugan,2007). Fu he mo e, i mus mee a leas wo o he ollowing h ee c i e ia: (1) he inci-
den mus be ca ied ou o achie e a poli ical, economic, eligious o social goal, (2) he e mus be e idence o an in en ion o
coe ce, in imida e o con ey some o he message o a la ge audience han he immedia e ic ims and/o (3) he inciden mus
be ou side he con ex o con en ional wa a e (LaF ee & Dugan,2007). The GTD p o ides geoloca ional in o ma ion (la i ude
and longi ude) on 99% o all a acks epo ed. This allows us o combine he e o ism index wi h ou heal h da a.
To add o he obus ness o ou indings, below we also use he cons i u i e pa so ou e o ism index as explana o y
a iables, ha is, he (in e se hype bolic sine ans o med) pe capi a numbe o e o is inciden s and he (in e se hype bolic
sine ans o med) pe capi a numbe o e o ism casual ies pe g id-yea obse a ion. This is o assess whe he any e ec o
e o ism on child mo ali y is due o he equency o he e oci y o e o ism. No e, howe e , ha he casual y a iable is
likely subjec o unde -coun ing as e o ism ic im igu es a e unknown o many obse a ions in he GTD.
Figu e2 isualizes he empo al ends in e o ism (indica ed by he annual mean o he e o ism index) in A ica o e
ou pe iod o obse a ion. The e is a clea up ick in e o is ac i i y a e 2011. While he e we e, on a e age, app oxima ely
310 e o is a acks pe yea be ween 2000 and 2011, he annual a e age was almos 2350 a acks om 2012 onwa ds. This
inc ease can pa ly be a ibu ed o s onge Islamis e o is ac i i y in he 2010s, o example, o a acks by Al-Qaida in he
Islamic Magh eb in Alge ia and Mali as well as Boko Ha am in Nige ia, Nige and Chad. Fu he mo e, e o ism in A ica is
linked o iolen sepa a ism such as in E hiopia (e.g., by he O omo Libe a ion F on ) and Angola (e.g., by he F on o he
Libe a ion o he Encla e o Cabinda).
3.3 | Geog aphy o child mo ali y and e o ism
We illus a e he geog aphical dis ibu ion o child mo ali y and e o ism in Figu e3. The s eng h o he shading indica es
he se e i y o child mo ali y, measu ed as he p obabili y o a child o die be o e eaching he age o i e, a e aged o e he
2000–2017 pe iod and agg ega ed a he g id le el. Figu e3 shows ha child mo ali y a es a e much highe in he Sahel
and Cen al A ica compa ed o Sou he n and No he n A ica. Black do s indica e he loca ion o indi idual e o is a acks
be ween 2000 and 2017. Some coun ies (e.g., he Como os, Leso ho and Mo occo) we e almos comple ely una ec ed by
e o ism, while o he coun ies (e.g., Alge ia, Egyp and Nige ia) saw subs an ial e o is ac i i y. Finally, Figu e3 also
poin s o a s ong in a-coun y he e ogenei y bo h wi h espec o child mo ali y and e o ism. Fo ins ance, he no he n and
sou h-eas e n pa s o Nige ia saw bo h ma kedly highe child mo ali y and mo e e o is a acks han he es o he coun y.
FIGURE 2 Te o ism o e ime.
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB
26
4 | TWO-WAY FIXED-EFFECTS APPROACH
4.1 | Empi ical model
To s udy he ela ionship be ween child en's heal h and e o is ac i i y, we conside he ollowing wo-way ixed-e ec s
model, which we es ima e using he OLS-es ima o :
ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒ℎ𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑒𝑒 =𝛽𝛽1∗𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑗𝑗𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑒𝑒 +𝛽𝛽2∗𝑋𝑋𝑘𝑘𝑒𝑒 +𝛼𝛼𝑘𝑘+𝜆𝜆𝑒𝑒+𝑣𝑣𝑘𝑘𝑒𝑒
(1)
He e, heal h e e s o ou k h measu e o child en's hea h in g id i and yea . Usually, his is he isk o child mo ali y o
child en unde he age o i e, bu i may also indica e he neo-na al o in an mo ali y isk. The a iable e o e e s o ou j h
measu e o e o is ac i i y. Commonly, we employ ou e o ism index bu as a obus ness check we also use wo al e na i e
e o ism indica o s.
We include g id-speci ic ixed-e ec s (α) o con ol o he ole o ime-in a ian ac o s ha may con ound he ela ionship
be ween e o ism and child en's heal h. Fo ins ance, local geog aphical condi ions (e.g., p oximi y o mosqui o habi a s) may
be conduci e o he sp ead o mala ia, which, in u n, ad e sely a ec s child en's heal h. A he same ime, ce ain geog aph-
ical condi ions (e.g., p oximi y o o es ed a eas) may p o ide po en ial mili an s wi h sa e ha ens and hus acili a e e o is
ac i i y (Fea on & Lai in, 2003; Schaub & Aue , 2023). Simila ly, yea - ixed e ec s (λ) con ol o he in luence o global
ends and e en s ha may ha e a ec ed e o ism and public heal h. Fo ins ance, he in oduc ion o di usion o medical
echnology du ing ou pe iod o obse a ion may ha e educed child mo ali y. Also, global ends in e o ism (e.g., he ise o
Al-Qaida and he Islamic S a e) ough o ha e in luenced e o ism in A ica.
Finally, we accoun o a se o ime- a ian con ounde s (X) ha may a ec bo h public heal h and e o is ac i i y and
hus also ob usca e—due o omi ed a iable bias— he ela ionship be ween e o ism and child mo ali y. Because da a on he
con ols is no a ailable o all g ids and yea s, ou sample size is educed when including hem. When conside ing only he ole
FIGURE 3 Geog aphy o e o ism and child mo ali y. [Colou igu e can be iewed a wileyonlinelib a y.com]
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB 27
o e o ism (plus he ixed e ec s) in child mo ali y in a pa simonious model, ou sample co e s 7954 g ids o he 2000–2017
pe iod. A model ha also conside s he ole o he a ious con ounde s allows us o d aw on 6751 g ids o he 2000–2015
pe iod.
We con ol o (1) nigh ligh s (i.e., ligh emissions du ing nigh ime) as a measu e o economic de elopmen , using da a
om El idge e al.(1997, 2021) and Ghosh e al.(2021); (2) a el ime o he nea es la ge ci y as a measu e o quali y o local
in as uc u e, d awing da a om Mülle -C epon(2021); (3) u ban popula ion, whe e he da a a e om an upda e o Meiyappan
and Jain(2012); (4) emale educa ion, measu ed as he yea s o educa ion o 20-24-yea -old women, whe e he da a a e om
G ae z e al.(2018); and (5) empe a u e (in °C) and p ecipi a ion (measu ed by he s anda dized p ecipi a ion e apo anspi a-
ion index), whe e he da a a e om Fan and an den Dool(2008) and Peng e al.(2019). We apply he in e se hype bolic sine
ans o ma ion o all con ols excep o he clima e a iables o co ec o skewness.
All con ols a e expec ed o a ec bo h he p e alence o e o ism and child heal h ou comes (B ockho e al.,2015; C aig
e al.,2021; Ecke & Kohle ,2014; F ey ag e al.,2011; Hahn e al.,2018; Kis-Ka os e al.,2014; Meie ieks,2021; She ield
& Land igan,2011; Subba ao & Raney,1995). Fo ins ance, we expec iche g ids o see lowe le els o child mo ali y (e.g.,
by i ue o be e access o medical echnology); a he same ime, economic de elopmen may also a ec e o ism, o exam-
ple, by in luencing i s oppo uni y cos s (F ey ag e al.,2011; Kis-Ka os e al.,2014).
4.2 | Empi ical esul s
We epo ou indings in Table1. We ind ha mo e e o is ac i i y is associa ed wi h highe le els o child mo ali y. This
main inding is obus o he inclusion o he baseline con ols. Conside ing economic subs an i eness, ou baseline es ima es
(Model (3), Table1) sugges ha an inc ease in e o ism by 10 pe cen is associa ed wi h an inc ease in child mo ali y o
app oxima ely 0.01% poin s. To gi e a compa ison, an inc ease in economic de elopmen (nigh ligh s) by 10 pe cen will yield
a dec ease in child mo ali y o app oxima ely 0.02% poin s.
Ou main inding is also obus o di e en measu emen s o mo ali y and e o ism. Conce ning he la e , he associ-
a ion be ween he equency o e o ism and child mo ali y appea s o be somewha s onge han he associa ion be ween
he le hali y o e o ism and child mo ali y. Po en ially, he e oci y o e o ism is mo e s ongly clouded by unce ain y and
unde epo ing, hus making beha io al esponses o i by a ec ed economic agen s less s aigh o wa d.
Finally, allowing o a mo e complex lag s uc u e wi h espec o he co ela ion be ween e o ism and he isk o child
mo ali y sugges s ha his associa ion becomes somewha s onge o e ime. 9 This may co espond o beha io al changes in
esponse o e o ism ha ake some ime o ma e ialize. Fo example, his may pe ain o a mig a o y esponse o e o ism on
he pa o medical wo ke s, which, in u n, will only impac child mo ali y in subsequen yea s.
4.3 | Role o ci il con lic and wa
Abo e, we no ed ha e o ism is dis inc om la ge-scale iolence, o example, wi h espec o he numbe o casual ies, he
a ge ing o ci ilians and he con ol o e i o y by non-s a e ac o s (e.g., Sambanis,2008). These di e ences mo i a ed ou
empi ical app oach o s udy he e o ism-child mo ali y nexus. A he same ime, howe e , one may poin o po en ial o e laps
be ween e o is ac i i y and la ge -scale ci il con lic (e.g., Findley & Young,2012). 10 I he e is a sys ema ic associa ion
be ween e o ism and la ge -scale ci il con lic , hen an empi ical in es iga ion o he e ec o e o ism on child heal h may
also pick up he clea ly es ablished impac o ci il con lic (e.g., Benda id e al.,2021), hus o e -es ima ing he impac o
e o ism on child mo ali y.
To s udy his la e p oposi ion, om he UCDP Geo e e enced E en Da ase (Sundbe g & Melande ,2013) we ex ac
he numbe o dea hs due o he use o a med o ce by an o ganized ac o agains ano he o ganized ac o s pe g id-yea obse -
a ion. Analogous o ou e o ism index, his dea h coun is weigh ed by local popula ion size and he in e se hype bolic
sine ans o ma ion is applied o i . These dea hs will no be conside ed by he GTD as he GTD does no include ac i i y
by comba an s (i.e., iolence be ween o ganized ac o s such as he go e nmen agains ebel g oups). A he same ime, ou
UCDP-based measu e explici ly excludes iolence agains ci ilians because his migh be included as e o ism by he GTD.
Consequen ly, we a e con iden ha using he UCDP and GTD da a allows us o di e en ia e be ween small-scale e o ism
(GTD) and la ge-scale ci il con lic and wa (UCDP). Indeed, he a e age numbe o ic ims pe g id-yea obse a ion due
o e o ism is 0.3, while i is 1.7 o ci il con lic . The co ela ion be ween e o ism and ci il con lic ic ims is posi i e bu
small ( =0.04, p<0.01).
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB
28
Fo ou empi ical analysis o he ole o ci il con lic , in addi ion o he (in e se hype bolic sine ans o med) pe capi a
numbe o ba le dea hs, we also conside a bina y measu e ha is equal o uni y when he e is a leas one ba le dea h and a
dicho omous measu e o ci il wa ha is equal o uni y when a g id obse a ion sees a leas 25 ba le dea hs pe yea (which is
a common ci il wa dea h h eshold; see Bla man & Miguel,2010). In addi ion, we un wo models whe e we d op all g id-yea
obse a ions when hey see a leas one ba le dea h o all g ids wi h any ba le dea h du ing ou pe iod o obse a ion (e en
when hey expe ience yea s wi hou ba le dea hs), espec i ely.
As shown in Supplemen a y Table2, we ind ha he posi i e associa ion be ween e o ism and child mo ali y holds
a e con olling o a ious measu es o ci il con lic /wa and when excluding ci il con lic g ids and episodes. He e, he
poin es ima es conce ning he associa ion be ween e o ism and mo ali y a e—as expec ed—somewha smalle bu s ill
easonably close o ou baseline esul s epo ed in Table1. Ou esul s sugges ha inc eases in bo h he scope o e o ism
and ci il con lic ha e a compa able associa ion wi h child mo ali y. Fo ins ance, a 10 pe cen inc ease in he e o ism index
and a 10 pe cen inc ease in he numbe o ba le dea hs a e bo h expec ed o inc ease he child mo ali y isk by app oxima ely
0.01% poin s. The la e posi i e associa ion be ween ci il con lic and child mo ali y is consis en wi h ea lie indings such
as Benda id e al.(2021). A he same ime, he esul s epo ed in Supplemen a y Table2 indica e ha e o ism sha es an
un a o able ela ionship wi h child mo ali y ha is independen o he impac o la ge -scale con lic s.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Dependen a iable →
Mo . U5
Mo . U5
Mo . U5
Mo . Neo
Mo . U1
Mo . U5
Mo . U5
Mo . U5
Te o ism index 0.048*** 0.088*** 0.087*** 0.014** 0.058*** 0.028*
(0.016) (0.020) (0.019) (0.005) (0.011) (0.015)
Te o ism index -1 0.071***
(0.015)
Te o ism index -2 0.125***
(0.015)
[Sum o coe icien s] [0.225]***
[S anda d e o ] [0.037]
Te o is inciden s p.c. 0.167***
(0.030)
Te o ism casual ies p.c. 0.071***
(0.021)
Nigh ligh s −0.225** −0.163*** −0.219*** −0.225** −0.226** −0.133
(0.106) (0.024) (0.053) (0.107) (0.107) (0.089)
Dis ance o ci y 0.411*** 0.170*** 0.120** 0.413*** 0.411*** 0.266***
(0.099) (0.027) (0.055) (0.099) (0.099) (0.094)
U ban −1.778*** −0.326** −0.560 −1.767*** −1.775*** −1.918***
(0.649) (0.149) (0.342) (0.649) (0.649) (0.644)
Female educa ion −0.443*** −0.145*** −0.190*** −0.444*** −0.442*** −0.275***
(0.038) (0.011) (0.022) (0.038) (0.038) (0.042)
Tempe a u e 0.023** −0.001 0.007 0.023** 0.023*** 0.021***
(0.009) (0.002) (0.004) (0.009) (0.009) (0.008)
P ecipi a ion (SPEI) 0.003 0.004*** 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.019***
(0.003) (0.001) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
Obse a ions 142,473 101,089 101,089 101,089 101,089 101,089 101,089 87,528
Numbe o g ids/clus e s 7954 6751 6751 6751 6751 6751 6751 6746
Adjus ed R
20.95 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96
No e: Mo . U5=Mo ali y isk o child en unde he age o i e. Mo . Neo=Mo ali y isk o child en in i s 28days a e bi h. Mo . U1=Mo ali y isk o child en
unde he age o one. G id- and yea - ixed e ec s always included. S anda d e o s clus e ed a he g id-le el in pa en heses.
*p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.
TABLE 1 Two-way ixed-e ec s es ima es.
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB 35
Panel B: Co ela ion be ween po en ial media o s and child mo ali y
(1b)
(2b)
(3b)
(4b)
Media o a iable →
Mala ia
Dia hea
Vaccina ions
Malnu i ion
Media o 1.173*** 1.659*** −1.481*** 6.950***
(0.071) (0.100) (0.129) (0.446)
Nigh ligh s −0.360*** −0.233** −0.258** −0.312***
(0.106) (0.104) (0.107) (0.101)
Dis ance o ci y 0.535*** 0.308*** 0.516*** 0.417***
(0.099) (0.099) (0.099) (0.095)
U ban −1.996*** −1.490** −1.419** −2.006***
(0.660) (0.634) (0.631) (0.638)
Female educa ion −0.443*** −0.369*** −0.409*** −0.210***
(0.038) (0.039) (0.038) (0.037)
Tempe a u e 0.011 0.023*** 0.032*** 0.015*
(0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009)
P ecipi a ion (SPEI) 0.002 0.003 −0.000 0.002
(0.004) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
Adjus ed R
20.96 0.95 0.96 0.96
Numbe o g ids/clus e s 6677 6751 6751 6750
Obse a ions (bo h panels) 100,006 101,089 101,074 101,074
No e
: OLS-es ima es epo ed. Dependen a iable in Panel B=Mo ali y isk o child en unde he age o i e. G id- and yea - ixed e ec s always included. S anda d e o s clus e ed a he g id-le el in pa en heses.
*p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.
TABLE 2 (Con inued)
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB
36
Acco ding o hese back-o - he-en elope calcula ions, ou es ima es hus poin o subs an ial annual inc eases in child mo ali y
due o e o is ac i i y especially when he scale o escala ion is subs an ial and long-las ing. To his e ec , ou indings also
speak o he exis ing li e a u e on he ad e se consequences o la ge-scale con lic on child heal h.
Gi en ha he di ec impac o e o ism (in e ms o i s le hali y and des uc ion o public heal h in as uc u e) ends o be
e y small, we a e easonably con iden ha inc eases in child mo ali y p ima ily eme ge h ough he beha io al esponse o
economic agen s (e.g., pa en s, doc o s, medical s a , aid wo ke s and policymake s) o e o ism. Explo ing he ole o se e al
po en ial media o s in he e o ism-child mo ali y nexus, we show ha highe le els o e o is ac i i y un a o ably co ela e
wi h se e al p oxima e causes o child mo ali y: he incidence o mala ia and dia hea, accina ion a es and malnou ishmen .
Fu u e wo k could examine hese beha io al esponses and media o s in mo e de ail. Fo ins ance, i could be in e es ing o
examine—using app op ia e mic o-le el o su ey da a—whe he i is pa en s, doc o s, poli icians o o he economic agen s
ha espond especially un a o ably (in e ms o he consequences o child heal h) o e o ism.
Recen yea s saw encou aging ad ances in educing child mo ali y in A ica. Ou empi ical analysis, howe e , sugges s
ha e o ism p oduced some conspicuous se backs wi h espec o his end. Domes ic and in e na ional policymake s a e hus
called upon o coun e e o ism bu should also conside mi iga ing beha io al esponses o e o ism ha a e o he de imen
o child en's heal h, o example, h ough in o ma ion and educa ion campaigns ha adjus pe cep ions abou e o ism and he
isk i en ails.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We would like o hank Daniel A ce, Janina Beise -McG a h, Anke Hoe le , Oguzhan Tu koglu as well as he pa icipan s o
EPSA 2022, he Jan Tinbe gen Eu opean Peace Science Con e ence 2022, he 2023 Annual Mee ing o he Eu opean Public
Choice Socie y and he MACIE semina a he Uni e si y o Ma bu g o hei aluable eedback. The da a used in his s udy
a e publicly a ailable and no speci ic unding was acqui ed. The ins uc ions o access he da a and he code used in he analyses
will be made a ailable on Ha a d's Da a e se.
Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
Bo h au ho s con ibu ed equally o his wo k and decla e no con lic o in e es s.
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The da a and he code used in he analyses will be made a ailable on Ha a d Da a e se.
ORCID
Daniel Meie ieks h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0003-2058-8385
Max Schaub h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0003-2057-7002
ENDNOTES
1 Te o ism is “ he p emedi a ed use o h ea o use iolence agains noncomba an s by indi iduals o subna ional g oups o ob ain a poli ical objec-
i e h ough he in imida ion o a la ge audience beyond ha o he immedia e ic ims” (Gaibulloe & Sandle ,2019,p.278).
2 Fu he mo e, by highligh ing he ole o e o ism in child heal h and mo ali y, we also add o he la ge empi ical li e a u e on he socio-economic
consequences o e o ism (e.g., Ta a es,2004; F ey e al.,2007; Gaibulloe & Sandle ,2011; Meie ieks & G ies,2013; Kim & Albe Kim,2018;
Blasco e al.,2022; o an o e iew see Gaibulloe & Sandle ,2019).
3 Beside i s un a o able di ec e ec s, child mo ali y may inc ease as a consequence o la ge-scale con lic because o he sp ead o in ec ious
diseases (e.g., Cha chuk e al.,2016; Iqbal & Zo n,2010), in u e o exposu e o con lic (Akbulu -Yuksel,2017; Apa icio Fenoll & González,2021;
Dagnelie e al.,2018), he des uc ion o heal h in as uc u e and he ligh o heal h wo ke s om con lic - idden a eas (e.g., Chi e al.,2015;
Chukwuma & Ekha o -Mobayode,2019; McKay,1998; P ice & Boha a,2013; Sha a a & Kanj,2014), he des uc ion o sani a ion, was e and
wa e ea men (Ki schne & Fina e ,2021), he unde unding o heal hca e ins i u ions by he go e nmen in imes o con lic (Ga es e al.,2012;
Iqbal,2006) and educed ood supply (e.g., Lin,2022), which, in u n, is expec ed o co ela e wi h weigh loss and s un ing (Benda id e al.,2021;
Bunde oe e al.,2009; Dunn,2018; Ki schne & Fina e ,2021; Wagne e al.,2018, 2019). See also Kadi e al.(2019) o a li e a u e e iew on
he consequences o a med con lic o child heal h and de elopmen .
4 A common de ini ion o a med ci il con lic in ol es a leas 25 (o , mo e conse a i ely, a leas 1000) ba le- ela ed dea hs pe yea in a
speci ic coun y (Bla man & Miguel,2010). The magni ude o iolence associa ed wi h e o ism is commonly much smalle (Gaibulloe &
Sandle ,2019).
5 These coun ies and e i o ies a e Alge ia, Angola, Benin, Bo swana, Bu kina Faso, Bu undi, Came oon, Cen al A ican Republic, Chad, Como-
os, Congo, Cô e d'I oi e, Democ a ic Republic o he Congo, Djibou i, Egyp , Equa o ial Guinea, E i ea, eSwa ini, E hiopia, Gabon, Gambia,
MEIERRIEKS and SCHAUB 37
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Leso ho, Libe ia, Libya, Madagasca , Malawi, Mali, Mau i ania, Mo occo, Mozambique, Namibia, Nige ,
Nige ia, Rwanda, Sou h Sudan, Senegal, Sie a Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sou h A ica, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Wes e n
Saha a, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
6 The use o (sel - epo ed) su ey da a o c ea e he child mo ali y a iable may lead o measu emen e o in his a iable. As we use he child
mo ali y a iable as he dependen a iable in ou empi ical analyses, we expec his po en ial measu emen e o o mainly a ec he p ecision o
ou es ima es bu no o cause bias when es ima ing he e ec o e o ism on his a iable. Fo una ely, since he numbe o obse a ions a ailable
o ou analyses is e y la ge, his is an icipa ed o coun e ac losses o es ima ion p ecision due o measu emen e o in he dependen a iable.
7 In con as o he log ans- o ma ion, he in e se hype bolic sine ans o ma ion is also de ined o g id-yea obse a ions wi h no e o is ac i i y
(e.g., Bu bidge e al.,1988; Bellema e & Wichman,2020). No e ha as pa o ou obus ness checks, we also use al e na i e ans o ma ions and
ope a ionaliza ions o ou e o ism index.
8 The GTD can be accessed a h ps://www.s a .umd.edu/g d/.
9 Allowing o u he lags yields simila indings. Con olling o a maximum o 10 lags, he e o ism index will now longe sha e a s a is ically
signi ican associa ion wi h child mo ali y a e he six h lag. No e, howe e , ha because a mo e complex lag s uc u e educes ou sample size,
hese esul s canno be di ec ly compa ed o ou o he es ima es epo ed in Table1.
10 This o e lap implies ha while “ e o ism may be used by ebel o ces, e o ism need no be associa ed wi h ci il wa ” (Gaibulloe &
Sandle ,2019,p.291).
11 We only examine he e ec o e o ism on child mo ali y wi hin he same g id cell. We conside ( ia he named s anda d e o s) bu do no explic-
i ly ope a ionalize spillo e e ec s o e o ism in neighbo ing cells. Assessing he ole o spa ially indi ec e ec s o e o ism on child mo ali y
may be a ui ul a enue o u u e esea ch.
12 As a obus ness check, we also cons uc he sup- con idence bands o Mon iel Olea and Plagbo g-Mølle (2019) which a e especially app op ia e
when we a e in e es ed in he en i e e en - ime pa h, ha is, in implici ly es ing mul iple hypo heses a once (F eyaldenho en e al.,2021). Reas-
su ingly, hese con idence bands a e like hose in Figu e4 o6.
13 The da a can be ound a h ps://popula ion.un.o g/wpp/.
14 Bo h igu es a e a e ages o e ou obse a ion pe iod. Due o popula ion g ow h, o al bi hs a e subs an ially highe in 2017 compa ed o 2000,
while he child mo ali y isk (e.g., due o medical ad ances) is conside ably lowe in 2017 compa ed o 2000.
15 All ou come measu es a e made a ailable by he Ins i u e o Heal h Me ics and E alua ion on hei websi e h ps://ghdx.heal hda a.o g/
local-and-small-a ea-es ima ion.
16 Fo ins ance, holding cons an he numbe o e o ism casual ies, such an inc ease would imply an inc ease o he A ica-wide absolu e numbe o
e o is inciden s by app oxima ely 625. While such an escala ion in iolence is subs an ial, i was indeed obse ed o ou sample be ween bo h
2011 and 2012 as well as be ween 2013 and 2014.
17 Ye , o he causes o child mo ali y in his yea we e much mo e impo an . Fo ins ance, ca. 530,000 child en died om mala ia, ca. 425,000 om
dia hea, and ca. 600,000 om pneumonia in 2010 (Liu e al.,2012).
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SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Addi ional suppo ing in o ma ion can be ound online in he Suppo ing In o ma ion sec ion a he end o his a icle.
How o ci e his a icle: Meie ieks, D., & Schaub, M. (2024). Te o ism and child mo ali y. Heal h Economics,
33(1), 21–40. h ps://doi.o g/10.1002/hec.4757
