Jus us, Ma celo; Ce quei a, Daniel; Kahn, Tulio; Mo ei a, Gus a o Ca alho
A icle
The "São Paulo Mys e y": The ole o he c iminal
o ganiza ion PCC in educing he homicide in 2000s
EconomiA
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
The B azilian Associa ion o Pos g adua e P og ams in Economics (ANPEC), Rio de Janei o
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Jus us, Ma celo; Ce quei a, Daniel; Kahn, Tulio; Mo ei a, Gus a o Ca alho
(2018) : The "São Paulo Mys e y": The ole o he c iminal o ganiza ion PCC in educing he homicide
in 2000s, EconomiA, ISSN 1517-7580, Else ie , Ams e dam, Vol. 19, Iss. 2, pp. 201-218,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.econ.2018.02.003
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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EconomiA
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201–218
The
“São
Paulo
Mys e y”:
The
ole
o
he
c iminal
o ganiza ion
PCC
in
educing
he
homicide
in
2000s
Ma celo
Jus usa,∗,
Daniel
Rica do
de
Cas o
Ce quei ab,
Tulio
Kahnc,
Gus a o
Ca alho
Mo ei ac
aIns i u e
o
Economics
a
he
Uni e si y
o
Campinas,
São
Paulo,
B azil
bIns i u e
o
Applied
Economic
Resea ch,
Rio
de
Janei o,
B azil
cIndependen
esea che
Recei ed
7
Augus
2017;
ecei ed
in
e ised
o m
22
Feb ua y
2018;
accep ed
28
Feb ua y
2018
A ailable
online
12
Ma ch
2018
Abs ac
We
mo e
o wa d
in
iden i ying
he
causes
o
he
ma ked
and
sys ema ic
educ ion
in
he
homicide
a e
in
São
Paulo
s a e
in
he
2000s.
I s
main
objec i e
was
ha
o
in es iga ing
he
ole
o
he
c iminal
o ganiza ion
PCC
in
his
p ocess.
We
cons uc ed
a
i s -
di e ence
ixed
e ec s
model
wi h
a
spa ial
s uc u e
whe e
we
con olled
o
a ious
socioeconomic
and
demog aphic
measu es
and
o
he
p esence
o
i ea ms
and
law-en o cemen ,
among
o he
measu es.
Ou
esul s
do
no
suppo
he
PCC
hypo hesis
a
he
le el
o
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo.
JEL
classifica ion:
K42
Keywo ds:
Homicide;
C iminal
o ganiza ion;
Violence
©
2018
The
Au ho s.
P oduc ion
and
hos ing
by
Else ie
B.V.
on
behal
o
Na ional
Associa ion
o
Pos -
g adua e
Cen e s
in
Economics,
ANPEC.
This
is
an
open
access
a icle
unde
he
CC
BY-NC-ND
license
(h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
1.
In oduc ion
A e
1999,
he e
was
a
dec ease
in
he
homicide
a e
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo.
This
dec ease
occu ed
in
abou
500
ou
o
a
o al
o
645
municipali ies.
Un il
2015,
he
dec ease
had
eached
80.9%
and
cons i u ed
one
o
he
mos
impo an
cases
o
c ime
educ ion
wo ldwide.
Howe e ,
he
easons
ha
con ibu ed
o
his
no able
pe o mance
a e
no
comple ely
unde s ood
and
s ill
emain
somewha
o
a
Mys e y,
abo e
all
because
he
2000s
we e
p odigal
o
ans o ma ions
in
poli ics,
economy,
socie y,
and
legisla ion.
Indeed,
he e
we e
coun less
changes
no
only
na ionally,
bu
also
egionally.
Na ionally,
he
deba e
abou
public
secu i y
policies
deepened
and
widened
in
scope.
The
Fede al
Go e nmen
ook
on
pa
o
he
esponsibili y
o
his
issue,
launching
he
1s
Na ional
Public
Secu i y
Plan
be o e
he
da e
scheduled
o
i s
launch
in
esponse
o
he
dea h
o
∗Co esponding
au ho .
E-mail
add esses:
[email p o ec ed]
(M.
Jus us),
[email p o ec ed].b
(D.R.
de
Cas o
Ce quei a),
[email p o ec ed]
(T.
Kahn),
gus a [email p o ec ed]
(G.C.
Mo ei a).
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.econ.2018.02.003
1517-7580
©
2018
The
Au ho s.
P oduc ion
and
hos ing
by
Else ie
B.V.
on
behal
o
Na ional
Associa ion
o
Pos g adua e
Cen e s
in
Economics,
ANPEC.
This
is
an
open
access
a icle
unde
he
CC
BY-NC-ND
license
(h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
202
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
he
eache
Geisa
in
he
amous
“Bus
174”
inciden
in
July
2000,
which
caused
a
na ional
up oa .
Also
o
he
i s
ime,
he
issue
o
public
secu i y
ook
cen e
s age
in
he
deba e
a ound
he
municipal
elec ions
ha
we e
held
in
ha
same
yea .
Since
hen,
he
numbe
o
municipal
gua ds
has
inc eased
signi ican ly
h oughou
he
coun y.
Social
condi ions
imp o ed
sys ema ically:
he e
we e
g adual
inc eases
in
pe
capi a
income,
he
unemploymen
a e
d opped,
income
inequali y
dec eased,
and
school
co e age
and
a endance
a es
wen
up.
In
legisla i e
e ms,
he
Disa mamen
S a u e
was
enac ed
a
he
end
o
2003,
pu ing
a
b ake
on
he
ue
a ms
ace
obse ed
in
p e ious
decades.
Finally,
du ing
ha
decade,
he
coun y
wi nessed
he
beginning
o
a
deep
change
in
he
demog aphic
egime,
made
possible
by
an
inc ease
in
li e
expec ancy
and
a
subs an ial
educ ion
in
e ili y
a es,
which
mean
ha
he
p opo ion
o
young
people
began
o
dec ease
in
some
egions.
A
he
s a e
le el,
São
Paulo
was
one
o
he
ew
ede a i e
uni s
ha
achie ed
con inui y
in
go e nmen al
managemen ,
wi h
he
same
pa y1a
he
head
o
he
s a e
go e nmen
since
1995.
Du ing
ha
pe iod,
many
inno a ions
we e
made
in
he
a ea
o
public
secu i y,
which
included
mo e
in ensi e
use
o
echnology
and
manage ial
eo ganiza ion,
engende ing
a
subs an ial
inc ease
in
inca ce a ion
a es.
A
he
same
ime,
some
municipali ies
s a ed
aking
a
mo e
ac i e
ole
in
public
secu i y,
when
hey
adop ed
he
alcohol
p ohibi ion
policy
(d y
law)
in
he
wake
o
good
esul s
achie ed
in
he
ci y
o
Diadema.
Las
bu
no
leas
was
he
g ow h
o
he
p ison
popula ion,
which
acili a ed
he
lu ing
o
p isone s
o
join
he
P imei o
Comando
da
Capi al
(PCC),
a
c iminal
o ganiza ion
ha
was
bo n
wi hin
he
p ison
sys em
and
became
na ionally
known
a e
o ches a ing
and
pe pe a ing
hund eds
o
a acks
in
May
2006.
The
ca eliza ion
o
he
e ail
d ug
ma ke
unde
he
leade ship
o
he
PCC
would
he e o e
be
one
o
many
hypo heses
used
o
explain
he
Mys e y
o
he
educ ion
in
homicides
in
São
Paulo.
In
his
complex
con ex ,
he
main
objec i e
o
his
pape
is
o
apply
an
empi ical
me hodology
o
es
he
hypo hesis
ha
he
PCC
ca el
had
a
signi ican
in luence
on
he
d op
in
he
homicide
a e
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
in
he
2000s.
This
s udy
con ibu es
o
he
li e a u e
ha
a emp s
o
explain
he
decline
in
homicide
a es
in
São
Paulo
du ing
he
2000s,
and
o
he
li e a u e
on
c iminal
o ganiza ions
and
hei
impac
on
c iminal
beha io .
Speci ically,
we
ocus
on
he
beha io
o
he
PCC
ca el.
While
p e ious
wo k
has
ocused
on
his
c iminal
o ganiza ion,
we
p o ide
a
mo e
s anda d
econome ic
app oach
o
hinking
abou
he
e ec
o
his
o ganiza ion
on
he
“Mys e y”
o
he
decline
in
homicide
a es
in
São
Paulo.
This
pape
is
s uc u ed
as
ollows.
In
Sec ion
2,
we
p esen
he
s udy
a ea,
he
“São
Paulo
Mys e y”
and
quan i a i e
and
quali a i e
s udies
ha
looked
in o
he
possible
causes
o
homicide
educ ion
in
São
Paulo.
In
his
sec ion
we
also
discuss
he
economic
con ex
o
o ganized
c ime
and
pay
special
a en ion
o
he
so-called
“PCC
hypo hesis”.
In
Sec ion
3,
we
b ie ly
discuss
he
p oxy
a iable
we
use
o
he
p esence
and
powe
o
he
PCC
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo,
ou
empi ical
model,
iden i ica ion
s a egy,
and
he
da a
sou ces
ha
we e
used.
Sec ion
4
shows
esul s.
In
he
Sec ion
5
we
p esen s
i e
ac s
inconsis en
wi h
he
PCC
hypo hesis.
We
conclude
he
a icle
in
Sec ion
6,
whe e
we
p esen s
he
limi a ions
o
in e ences.
2.
Backg ound
and
p e ious
s udies
2.1.
The
“São
Paulo
Mys e y”
Acco ding
o
da a
om
he
Public
Secu i y
Sec e a ia
o
he
S a e
São
Paulo
(Sec e a ia
de
Segu an¸ca
Pública,
SSP-SP)
and
om
he
B azilian
Ins i u e
o
Geog aphy
and
S a is ics
(Ins i u o
B asilei o
de
Geog afia
e
Es a ís ica,
IBGE),
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
had
a
a e
o
44
homicides
pe
100,000
popula ion
in
1999,
while
he
na ional
a e age
was
26.2.
This
placed
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
among
he
mos
iolen
egions
o
he
wo ld
Uni ed
Na ions
O ice
on
d ugs
and
c ime,
2006.
In
2012,
he
a e
ell
o
11.5,
below
he
egional
a e age
in
he
Ame icas
(28.5)
bu
s ill
abo e
he
wo ld
a e age
(6.7)
(Wo ld
Heal h
O ganiza ion,
2014).
Following
his
end,
in
2015
he
a e
was
8.4
(SSP-SP,
2016).
The
“São
Paulo
Mys e y”
esul ed
om
his
g adual
and
unin e up ed
d op
in
he
homicide
a e
(Fig.
1).
As
in
he
case
o
New
Yo k
(see
Le i ,
2004),
schola s
a e
in en
on
unde s anding
he
causes
o
his
Mys e y
o
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo.
1Excep
o
he
pe iod
be ween
Ma ch
31,
2006
and
Janua y
1,
2007,
when
Vice
Go e no
Claudio
Lembo
assumed
he
go e nmen
a e
he
esigna ion
o
Go e no
Ge aldo
Alkmin.
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
203
Fig.
1.
Numbe
o
homicides
epo ed
by
qua e
om
1995Q3
o
2016Q3.
Sou ce:
p epa ed
by
he
au ho s.
2.2.
O ganized
c ime
and
PCC
hypo hesis
The
PCC
is
he
la ges
and
mos
amous
c iminal
o ganiza ion
in
B azil.
I
was
ini ially
es ablished
in
he
p ison
sys em
o
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
and
g adually
ook
command
o
all
p isons
in
he
coun y
due
o
he
lack
o
p esence
o
he
s a e
and
o
he
pu pose
o
ensu ing
be e
inca ce a ion
condi ions
o
inma es
(Biondi,
2009).
In
1993,
one
o
he
ounde s
o
he
o ganiza ion
d a ed
a
s a u e
o
he
union
o
he
de ainees
wi h
he
aim
o
a oiding
mis ea men
and
o
egula ing
wha
inma es
could
do
o
no
(Biondi,
2009).
The
exis ence
o
he
PCC
was
only
o icially
ecognized
in
2000,
based
on
an
in es iga ion
ca ied
ou
by
he
Sec e a ia
o
Peni en ia y
Adminis a ion.
F om
ha
ime
onwa d,
he
ans e
o
i s
main
leade s
o
o he
p isons
ou side
he
s a e
only
helped
o
sp ead
he
p inciples
o
he
o ganiza ion
h oughou
he
coun y
(Biondi,
2009).
The
i s
display
o
powe
o
he
o ganiza ion
occu ed
in
2001,
when
ebellions
ook
place
in
29
p isons
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo.
The
wide
co e age
o
he
mass
media
and
he
success
o
he
ebellions
s eng hened
he
PCC
cul u e
in
u ban
a eas
as
well
(Biondi,
2009).
I
was
in
May
2006,
a e
765
p isone s
we e
ans e ed
o
a
maximum
secu i y
uni ,
including
he
PCC
leade ,
ha
he
o ganiza ion
ca ied
ou
i s
mos
calami ous
ac ion.
Acco ding
o
Cano
and
Al adia
(2008),
he e
we e
84
ebellions
in
p isons
h oughou
B azil,
74
o
which
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo,
as
well
as
300
a acks
on
public
acili ies,
84
buses
se
on
i e,
17
a acks
on
bank
b anches,
and
mo e
han
500
dead
among
ci ilians
and
he
mili a y.
The
PCC
is
p esen
in
all
he
na ional
e i o y
and
in
some
coun ies
in
La in
Ame ica,
ac ing
in
obbe ies,
bank
obbe ies,
and
a ms
and
d ug
a icking.
The
B azilian
Public
P osecu o ’s
O ice
es ima es
ha
he
o ganiza ion’s
mon hly
e enue
in
2015
amoun ed
o
16
million
eals.
204
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
Fo
mo e
de ails
on
he
PCC’s
expansion
and
consolida ion
p ocess
in
he
São
Paulo
p ison
sys em
and
he
social
ole
i
es ablished
in
ha
sys em
as
a
esul
o
monopolizing
oppo uni ies
o
inc easing
i s
powe ,
see
Dias
(2011).
Acco ding
o
McCa hy
(2013),
i
is
di icul
o
de e mine
a
gene al
heo y
o
o ganized
c ime.
In
Lampe
(2016),
o
example,
we
ind
180
de ini ions
o
“o ganized
c ime”
in
he
wo ld.
Thei
o igins,
s uc u es,
and
modus
ope andi
di e
signi ican ly.
The
only
ce ain y
we
ha e
is
ha
hey
a e
o ganized
and
ha
hei
business
is
based
on
an
illegal
ac i i y
o
wha
kind
o
ano he .
Thei
o igin
lies
undamen ally
in
he
s a e’s
lack
o
powe
o
gua an ee
law
en o cemen
and
c iminal
jus ice
(Fio en ini
and
Pel zman,
1997;
Skape das,
2001;
McCa hy,
2013).
Bandie a
(2003)
men ions
ha
he
Sicilian
ma ia
eme ged
om
he
I alian
ag a ian
e o m
o
gua an ee
p o ec ion
and
p ope y
igh s
o
he
popula ion.
In
ano he
way,
he
p esence
o
he
s a e
can
also
con ibu e
o
he
de elopmen
o
c iminal
o ganiza ions
by
p ohibi ing
he
p oduc ion
and
dis ibu ion
o
ce ain
high-demand
goods
and
se ices
wi h
a ac i e
p o i abili y
(Kuma
and
Skape das,
2008).
C iminal
o ganiza ions
a e
ac ually
co po a ions
wo king
a ionally
wi h
a
wide
a ie y
o
businesses
anging
om
mic o- a icking
and
he
o
highly
complex
ansna ional
c ime
o ganiza ions
engaged
in
ac i i ies
such
as
money
launde ing,
d ug
a icking,
and
co up ion.
Thei
p edominan
s uc u e
is
hie a chical
(Le i
and
Venka esh,
2000;
McCa hy,
2013).
Like
any
o ganiza ion,
he
p inciples
o
loyal y,
mo i a ion,
and
p o i -making
a e
desi able
equi emen s.
Howe e ,
he e
is
no
way
o
u n
o
he
police
o
legal
sys em
in
he
ace
o
con ac ual
o
inancial
con lic s
in
hei
business
chain
(Kuma
and
Skape das,
2008).
Despi e
his,
he
alidi y
o
con ac s
can
be
much
mo e
e ec i e,
since
penal ies
end
o
be
mo e
se e e
and
o en
ca ied
ou
h ough
iolence.
Jus
as
in
he
legal
ma ke ,
we
can
expec
new
playe s
o
join
in
i
illegal
ac i i ies
gene a e
p o i .
Acco ding
o
economic
heo y,
b eaking
a
monopoly
o
inc easing
compe i ion
leads
o
g ea e
e iciency.
Howe e ,
his
peace ul
balance
may
no
occu ,
gi en
he
cul u e
o
using
iolence
agains
i al
o ganiza ions
(Kuma
and
Skape das,
2008).
In
Mexico,
o
example,
he
homicide
a e
g ew
by
abou
1.000%
be ween
2006
and
2010.
The
main
explana ion
lies
in
he
wa
o
e i o y
be ween
he
Jua ez
and
Sinaloa
ca els
(Dudley,
2014).
Acco ding
o
Boucha d
and
Wilkins
(2010),
he
Nash
equilib ium
o
hese
con lic s
would
occu
in
a
s uc u e
simila
o
monopolis ic
compe i ion,
wi h
each
g oup
ac ing
in
speci ic
egions.
The
dis ibu ion
o
Colombian
cocaine
in
ci ies
in
he
Uni ed
S a es,
o
example,
was
di ided
by
ag eemen s
be ween
he
Cali
and
Medellin
ca els
ha
emained
in
o ce
o
a
ce ain
pe iod
(Clawson
and
Lee,
1996).
The
same
holds
ue
when
dealing
wi h
legal
au ho i ies
such
as
law
en o cemen
and
he
judicia y.
I
hey
a e
no
in
he
way
o
hei
business,
by
accep ing
b ibes,
he e
is
balance
wi hou
iolence.
O he wise,
Daniele
and
Ma ani
(2011)
poin
ou
ha
he e
is
a
end
o
mo e
ac i e
co up ion
o
e en
bomb
a acks
and
a son,
wi h
he
aim
o
d awing
he
a en ion
o
poli ical
agen s.
I
he e
is
balance,
he
cul u e
o
c iminal
o ganiza ions
o
using
iolence
di e s
acco ding
o
hei
cha ac e is ics,
o
he
en i onmen ,
and
also
o
he
ype
o
c ime.
The
Medellín
Ca el,
o
example,
was
led
by
Pablo
Escoba ,
who
employed
plen y
o
iolence
o
achie e
his
goals.
The
Cali
Ca el,
which
succeeded
he
Medellín
Ca el,
employed
i ually
no
iolence
as
a
s a egy
so
as
no
o
d aw
he
a en ion
o
he
au ho i ies
(McCa hy,
2013).
In
addi ion
o
hese
examples,
consolida ing
a
c iminal
o ganiza ion
in o
a
mul i-gang
en i onmen
can
also
lead
o
o de ,
as
a
esul
o
egula ing
p ope y
igh s
and
secu i y
se ices.
This
can
be
e i ied
in
Biondi
(2014),
who
obse es
he
bene i s
ci ed
by
he
esiden s
o
he
p esence
o
o ganized
c ime
in
a elas
in
he
ci y
o
São
Paulo,
B azil.
Speci ic
c imes
such
as
iolence
agains
women
and
ape
a e
also
expec ed
o
dec ease,
since
he
p inciple
o
espec
o
women
is
obse ed
by
many
o
hese
o ganiza ions
(McCa hy,
2013).
Gi en
his
di e si y,
i
is
di icul
o
de e mine
a
gene al
pa e n,
esul ing
in
he
need
o
analyze
iolence
and
i s
consequences
on
a
case-by-case
basis.
The
ela ionship
be ween
o ganized
c ime
and
homicides
is
ambiguous.
The e
is
e idence
ha
o ganized
c ime
can
con ibu e
o
bo h
inc easing
and
dec easing
homicide
a es
a
a
gi en
loca ion
and
ime.
The
conjec u e
is
ha
he
mo e
o ganized
c ime
is,
he
lowe
he
need
and
a ionali y
o
ac ing
wi h
iolence.
The
ypical
model
is
ha
o
he
I alian
Ma ia
o
o
he
Yakusa,
which
p e e
o
b ibe
and
co-op
public
agen s
and
sha e
hei
business
a he
han
exchange
sho s
wi h
au ho i ies
o
engage
in
a med
dispu es
wi h
i al
g oups.
In
B azil,
a
classic
example
is
ha
o
he
so-called
Animal
Lo e y,
which
is
a
much
olde
and
mo e
o ganized
illegal
ac i i y
han
d ug
a icking
and
doesn’
in ol e
iolence.
In
his
con ex ,
a
c iminal
o ganiza ion
has
li le
in luence
on
homicide
a es
and
may
e en
con ibu e
o
educing
homicides
i
i
was
in
con lic
wi h
au ho i ies
o
compe ing
g oups
in
a
p e ious
pe iod.
A
high
numbe
o
dea hs
in
clashes
wi h
police
o
be ween
membe s
o
i al
g oups,
as
seen
in
Rio
de
Janei o,
can
be
an
indica o
o
o ganiza ional
gaps.
Exchanging
sho s
wi h
police
and
i al
g oups
is
bad
o
business,
while
joining
in e es s
h ough
ag eemen s
seems
o
be
he
mos
e ec i e
s a egy.

M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
205
Recen ly,
analys s
began
o
e e
o
he
d op
seen
in
homicide
a es
in
Medellín
and
El
Sal ado
as
an
example
o
how
homicides
can
dec ease
when
o ganized
c ime
s ops
eso ing
o
iolence
while
go e nmen
akes
mo e
e icien
ac ions
and
imp o es
social
and
economic
condi ions
o
he
popula ion.
In
Medellin,
homicide
a es
d opped
ab up ly
in
2003,
when
he
Bloque
Cacique
Nu iba a
(BCN)
was
demobilized,
and
began
o
ise
again
in
2008
a e
i s
local
leade
was
ex adi ed,
gi ing
ise
o
a
dispu e
be ween
c iminal
ac ions
o e
d ug
a icking.
A e
his
ou b eak
o
iolence
was
o e ,
homicide
a es
ook
a
down u n
once
again
in
2009
(Ga zón-Ve ga a,
2016;
Lessing,
2016).
In
El
Sal ado ,
a
uce
be ween
he
go e nmen
and
wo
c iminal
ac ions
in
2012
may
ha e
con ibu ed
o
a
wo-yea
decline
in
homicide
a es,
which
began
o
ise
again
a e
he
ag eemen
ell
apa
in
2013.
A
new
s a egy
o
con on ing
gangs
adop ed
in
2014
may
ha e
led
homicide
a es
o
ise
om
hen
on.
No
empi ical
s udy
has
been
ca ied
ou
in
connec ion
wi h
any
o
hese
cases
o
measu e
his
impac
on
homi-
cides
con olling
o
o he
de e minan s
o
iolence.
Sudden
declines
in
homicide
a es
oughly
coinciding
wi h
uce
ag eemen s
be ween
go e nmen s
and
gangs
a e
he
only
clues.
The
ela ionship
be ween
o ganized
c ime
and
homicides
is
complex
and
de e mined
by
he
amoun
o
i ea ms
a ailable,
e i o ial
con ol
by
ac ions,
he
p osecu ing
capaci y
o
he
s a e,
and
g ea e
o
lesse
emphasis
on
a
di ec
con on a ion
s a egy,
among
many
o he
ac o s
(Ga zón-Ve ga a,
2016;
Lessing,
2016).
Wha
was
seen
in
São
Paulo,
on
he
o he
hand,
was
a
g adual
and
cons an
decline
in
homicides
as
o
2000
and
no
ab up
declines
ollowed
by
inc eases,
as
in
he
cases
o
Medellin
and
El
Sal ado .
Unlike
wha
happened
in
Rio
de
Janei o
and
in
hose
ci ies,
con olling
e i o ies
o
d ug
a icking
pu poses
–
whe e
police
a e
ecei ed
wi h
gun i e
–
is
a
much
less
adop ed
p ac ice.
The e
a e
no
a eas
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
os ensibly
con olled
by
a med
d ug
deale s
whe e
police
a e
no
allowed
o
en e
peace ully.
Peni en ia ies
a e
an
excep ion,
as
hese
a e
clea ly
con olled
by
he
PCC
gang.
São
Paulo
is
also
one
o
he
B azilian
s a es
wi h
he
highes
homicide
esolu ion
and
con ic ion
a es.
I
should
be
no ed
ha ,
unlike
he
cases
o
Medellin
and
El
Sal ado ,
he e
has
ne e
been
an
explici
pac
o
ag eemen
be ween
he
go e nmen
o
São
Paulo
and
o ganized
c ime
o
educe
iolence.
The
case
o
Rio
de
Janei o
dese es
men ion
in
his
con ex .
The e
is
a
ie ce
dispu e
be ween
di e en
and
hea ily
a med
ac ions
o e
d ug
ou le s
and
hese
ac ions
os ensibly
con ol
he
communi ies
whe e
hey
ope a e.
I
is
a
well-known
ac
ha
he
capaci y
o
he
Rio
de
Janei o
Police
Depa men
o
in es iga e
and
a es
he
leade s
o
hese
gangs
is
clea ly
a
om
ideal.
No
ag eemen
has
been
en e ed
in o
o
demobilize
o
educe
iolence
be ween
he
go e nmen
o
Rio
de
Janei o
and
c iminals.
Howe e ,
homicide
a es
in
Rio
de
Janei o
ell
unin e up edly
o
a
decade,
be ween
2003
and
2013.
I
can
be
specula ed
ha
he
dec ease
in
homicide
a es
in
Rio
is
due
o
ac o s
such
as
a
educ ion
in
he
numbe
o
i ea ms
in
ci cula ion,
imp o emen s
in
he
economic
si ua ion,
and
law-en o cemen
leade ship
and
inno a ions
(such
as
se ing
up
Paci ying
Police
Uni s
–
UPPs
–
in
slums),
as
obse ed
in
São
Paulo.
Nei he
he
dec ease
no
he
inc ease
in
homicide
a es
seen
in
Rio
a e
2014
seem
o
be
ela ed
o
he
capaci y
o
o ganized
c ime
o
egula e
iolence
in
he
e i o ies
in
which
i
ope a es.
Thus,
a gumen s
acco ding
o
which
he
a ia ions
obse ed
in
homicide
a es
in
Medellín
and
El
Sal ado
a e
p edominan ly
due
o
a ia ions
in
he
capaci y
o
o ganized
c ime
o
egula e
iolence
a e
agile.
These
a ia ions
may
be
mo e
indica i e
o
he
in ensi y
o
con on a ional
policies
adop ed
by
public
au ho i ies
han
o
he
egula ing
capaci y
o
o ganized
c ime.
I
is
also
no
app op ia e
o
compa e
he
decline
in
homicides
in
São
Paulo
wi h
he
abo e-men ioned
examples
due
o
he
e y
di e en
cha ac e is ics
o
he
local
con ex s:
g adual
and
widesp ead
decline
h oughou
he
s a e,
e en
in
hund eds
o
municipali ies
whe e
o ganized
c ime
is
no
p esen .
I
is
possible
ha
o ganized
c ime
has
an
e ec
o
some
kind
on
educing
homicides,
bu
i
is
limi ed
o
some
slums
in
São
Paulo
ci y.
The
ield
o
empi ical
esea ch
in
c iminology
is
eminen ly
mul idisciplina y,
and
one
in
which
di e en
adi ions,
me hods,
and
app oaches,
bo h
quan i a i e
and
quali a i e,
coexis .
As
Webe
said,
no
me hodology
is
a
p io i
be e
han
ano he .
Di e en
me hods
can
and
should
be
ecommended
o
di e en
analyses,
depending
on
he
goal
o
he
esea ch,
as
well
as
on
he
cons ain s
in ol ed
in
ob aining
in o ma ion.
Ne e heless,
he
app oaches
can
be
compa ed
wi h
ega d
o
he
c i e ia
o
in e nal
and
ex e nal
alida ion
o
a
hypo hesis
ha
one
wishes
o
pu
o
he
es .
Resea ch
wi h
high
in e nal
alida ion
will
be
able
o
e u e
al e na i e
hypo heses,
a oiding
spu ious
co ela ions
ha
concu
o
a
mis aken
unde s anding
o
a
gi en
phenomenon.
On
he
o he
hand,
ex e nal
alida ion
o e s
g ea e
gua an ee
ha
he
esul s
ob ained
can
be
gene alized
o
a
popula ion
and
a e
no
dependen
on
a
sample
o
pa icula
si ua ion.
In
an
e hnog aphic
esea ch,
Biondi
(2009)
p o ides
e idence
ha
he
ans o ma ions
b ough
abou
by
he
PCC
we e
e y
bene icial
o
de ainees,
as
he
c ea ion
o
o de
a oided
physical
assaul s
and
sexual
iolence
and
ensu ed
206
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
espec
o
he
ma e ial
goods
o
each
o
i s
membe s.
In
addi ion
o
he
ac
ha
i
c ea ed
in e nal
o de ,
he
PCC
hypo hesis
is
subs an ia ed
by
he
idea
ha
many
mu de s
ha
ook
place
in
e i o ies
compe ed
o
and
o he
c iminal
ac s
commi ed
o
e enge,
se ling
o
sco es,
e c.,
would
no
longe
be
accep ed
by
he
cen al
command
o
he
o ganiza ion
wi hou
p io
and
ca ego ical
au ho iza ion.
A
single
pape
(Bide man
e
al.,
2015)
employing
a
quan i a i e
app oach
measu ed
he
alleged
impac
o
he
PCC.
These
au ho s
ound
ha
he
powe
o
his
c iminal
o ganiza ion
accoun ed
o
app oxima ely
7%
o
he
dec ease
in
homicides
in
he
slums
in
he
capi al
o
São
Paulo
s a e
con olled
by
he
PCC.
On
he
o he
hand,
nume ous
e hnog aphic
s udies
concluded
ha
he e
was
a
no able
e ec
o
he
ac ions
o
he
PCC
as
a
leading
ac o
in
educing
homicides
in
São
Paulo.
E hnog aphic
analysis
and
in e iews
wi h
he
ac o s
in ol ed
we e
he
empi ical
basis
o
hose
s udies.
Despi e
he
ichness
o
de ails
and
he
deepe
unde s anding
o
he
social
connec ions
in ol ed
in
he
phenomenon
ha
hose
s udies
p o ided,
he e
a e
in insic
limi s
o
he
e hnog aphic
me hod
in
e ms
o
ex apola ing
conclusions
o
show
gene alized
causal
e ec s.
We
a e
no
disquali ying
his
esea ch,
le
alone
saying
ha
he
g oup
had
no
bea ing
on
he
educ ion
in
homicides.
We
only
a gue
ha
his
in luence
and
i s
eal
weigh
ha e
no
been
con i med.
I
is
possible
ha
he
ole
played
by
he
PCC
in
he
imagina ion
o
people
li ing
in
subu bs,
jou nalis s,
and
esea che s
is
much
g ea e
han
i s
ac ual
ole
in
explaining
he
phenomenon.
The
mos
incisi e
de ense
o
he
PCC
hypo hesis
is
one
made
by
Willis
(2013),
an
an h opologis
who
s udied
homicides
in
São
Paulo
be ween
2009
and
2012,
ollowing
he
wo k
o
DHPP
policemen
and
in e iewing
esiden s
om
he
ou ski s
o
he
capi al.
Al hough
e y
ich
in
he
desc ip ion
o
he
ac ion’s
unc ioning
and
o
he
mo al
a gumen s
cons uc ed
by
he
ac o s
in ol ed
o
jus i y
who
can
kill
and
who
mus
die,
ha
s udy
pu s
o wa d
a
weak
a gumen
when
i
ies
o
a gue
ha
he
dec ease
in
homicides
in
São
Paulo
was
mainly
due
o
he
PCC
and
ha
law
en o cemen ,
known
o
i s
ine iciency,
would
ha e
li le
ela ion
wi h
he
phenomenon.
I
should
be
no ed,
howe e ,
ha
he
au ho
ca ied
ou
his
esea ch
only
in
he
ci y
o
São
Paulo,
speci ically
in
some
a elas
in
he
capi al
whe e
he
PCC
was
ac i e,
and
as
we
ha e
seen,
he
dec ease
in
homicides
was
widesp ead
in
he
s a e,
occu ing
in
mos
o
i s
municipali ies.
The
au ho
assumes
ha
mos
homicides
a e
p emedi a ed
and
ha
he
ac ion
can
he e o e
a oid
hem.
I
is
also
assumed
ha
he
ac ion
exe s
i s
in luence
no
only
among
he
membe s
o
he
g oup
and
in
communi ies,
bu
also
in
all
o he
con ex s.
This
app oach
holds
he
e oneous
assump ion
ha
he
only
way
ha
au ho i ies
can
a ec
he
homicide
a e
is
h ough
in es iga ions
ca ied
ou
by
he
DHPP.
This
agency
deals
only
wi h
homicides
by
unknown
c iminals
ha
occu ed
in
he
ci y
o
São
Paulo,
which
causes
bias
in
he
esea ch.
The
dec ease
in
o he
ypes
o
c ime
in
he
s a e
o e
he
same
pe iod,
such
as
ehicle
obbe y/ he
and
obbe y
ollowed
by
homicide,
is
no
conside ed
and
canno
su icien ly
explain
he
dec ease
in
in e pe sonal
homicides.
The
au ho
s ill
does
no
acknowledge
he
in luence
o
he
powe
o
he
s a e
in
he
p ocess,
e en
hough
he e
is
empi ical
e idence
ha
public
secu i y
policy
has
also
played
a
majo
ole
in
educing
homicides.
Some
quan i a i e
s udies
we e
de eloped
o
es
a ious
hypo heses
wi h
he
aim
o
explaining
he
cause
o
he
dec ease
in
homicides
in
São
Paulo.
Table
1
summa izes
some
o
hose
s udies.
I
is
wo h
men ioning
ha ,
whe eas
quan i a i e
me hods
a e
gene ally
use ul
o
es ing
hypo heses,
ha ing
as
hei
ul ima e
me hodological
conce n
he
p inciples
o
simplici y
and
in e nal
and
ex e nal
alida ion,
quali a i e
me hods,
and
e hnog aphic
wo k
in
pa icula ,
seek
o
ob ain
a
deepe
unde s anding
abou ,
and
a
de ailed
desc ip ion
o ,
ce ain
social
ela ions;
and
abou
alues
and
belie s
ha
guide
he
ac ions
o
indi iduals.
On
he
o he
hand,
he
e y
na u e
o
quali a i e
esea ch
does
no
lend
i sel
o
he
objec i e
o
in e nal
and
ex e nal
alida ion
o
hypo heses,
also
because
he
indi iduals
obse ed
a e
pa
o
a
pa icula
social
con ex
and
hei
belie s
and
alues
a e
limi ed
o
hei
se
o
in o ma ion
and
expe iences.
In
he
quan i a i e
s udies
lis ed
he e,
he
au ho s
con i med
hypo heses
abou
he
impo ance
o
ce ain
ac o s
ha
con ibu ed
o
he
gene al
dec ease
in
homicides
in
São
Paulo.
These
include:
he
disa mamen
policy,
imp o emen s
in
socio-economic
condi ions,
inc eased
school
a endance
among
young
people,
a
dec ease
in
he
p opo ion
o
young
people
in
he
popula ion,
echnological
and
o ganiza ional
inno a ions
in
public
secu i y
managemen
(such
as
he
In oc im
sys em),
and
a
decline
in
he
c ack
epidemic
cycle.
A
he
same
ime,
De
Mello
and
Schneide
(2010)
ound
local
e ec s
o
he
implemen a ion
o
he
alcohol
p ohibi ion
policy
(d y
law)
in
some
municipali ies.
Ce quei a
(2014)
shows
ha
he
Disa mamen
S a u e
was
e ec i e
in
educing
he
homicide
a e
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo,
and
ha
a
dec ease
o
1%
in
guns
in
he
hands
o
ci izens
educed
he
homicide
a e
by
app oxima ely
2%.
The
e idence
ound
by
Jus us
and
Kassou
(2013)
e eal
ha
he
Disa mamen
S a u e
educed
he
a e
o
le hal
c imes
(homicide
and
obbe y
ollowed
by
homicide)
in
he
capi al,
ein o cing
he
indings
o
ha
s udy.
They
also
highligh ed
he
ole
o
imp o ed
economic
condi ions
leading
o
be e
law
en o cemen
pe o mance
in
educing
he
a e
o
le hal
c imes
in
he
capi al
o
São
Paulo
s a e.
Cab al
(2016)
ound
a
s ong
e ec
o
he
adop ion
o
new
public
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
207
Table
1
Empi ical
p e ious
s udies
on
alleged
causes
o
he
homicides
a e
educ ion
in
São
Paulo.
Hypo hesis
Au ho s
Me hodology
Spa ial
dimension
Time
dimension
PCC
pa icipa ion
Bide man
e
al.
(2015)
Panel
da a
analysis
Slums
(Fa elas)
o
São
Paulo
ci y
2005–2009
Disa mamen
Ha ung
(2009)
Time
se ies
analysis
S a e
o
São
Paulo
2001–2007
Ce quei a
(2014)
Panel
da a
analysis
(painel
IV)
Municipali ies
o
São
Paulo
2001–2007
Jus us
and
Kassou
(2013)
Time
se ies
analysis
(coin eg a ion
analysis)
São
Paulo
ci y
1997–2010
Ce quei a
and
De
Mello
(2013) Panel
da a
analysis
(painel
IV) Municipali ies
o
São
Paulo
2001–2007
Family
s uc u e
Ha ung
(2009)
Panel
da a
analysis
Municipali ies
o
São
Paulo
1997–2007
D y
law
Bide man
e
al.
(2010)
Panel
da a
analysis
G ea e
São
Paulo
2001–2004
Demog aphy
De
Mello
and
Schneide
(2010)
Panel
da a
analysis
Municipali ies
o
São
Paulo
1992–2005
Ce quei a
and
Mou a
(2014)
Panel
da a
analysis
B azilian
municipali ies
1991,
2000
and
2010
Labo
ma ke
Dix
Ca nei o
e
al.
(2016)
Panel
da a
analysis
(painel
IV)
B azilian
municipali ies
1991,
2000
and
2010
Ce quei a
and
Mou a
(2015)
Panel
da a
analysis
(painel
IV)
B azilian
municipali ies
1980,
1991,
2000
and
2010
Jus us
and
Kassou
(2013)
Time
se ies
analysis
(coin eg a ion
analysis)
São
Paulo
ci y
1997
and
2010
Social
p og ams
Chioda
e
al.
(2015)
Panel
da a
analysis
(painel
IV)
São
Paulo
ci y
2006
and
2009
Police
in elligence
(In oc im)
Cab al
(2016)
Panel
da a
analysis
(spa ial
painel
model)
Municipali ies
o
São
Paulo
2000
and
2010
D ugs
De
Mello
(2015)
Panel
da a
analysis
G ea e
São
Paulo
1984–2005
Sou ce:
p epa ed
by
he
au ho s.
208
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
Fig.
2.
The
S a e
o
São
Paulo:
São
Paulo
ci y,
G ea e
São
Paulo
and
non-me opoli an
municipali ies.
Sou ce:
p epa ed
by
he
au ho s.
secu i y
echnologies
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
in
he
e alua ion
o
he
impac
o
he
In oc im
sys em.
The
au ho
a gues
ha
his
police
in o ma ion
sys em
was
esponsible
o
an
a e age
educ ion
o
8.4
in
he
homicide
a e
pe
one
hund ed
housand
popula ion,
a oiding
3472
homicides
om
i s
implemen a ion
in
2003–2010.
3.
Me hod
3.1.
The
s udy
a ea
Fig.
2
shows
he
s udy
a ea
wi hin
B azil:
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo.
I
is
loca ed
in
B azil’s
sou heas
egion
and
consis s
o
645
municipali ies,
39
o
which
a e
loca ed
in
he
me opoli an
a ea
called
G ea e
São
Paulo,
and
he
capi al
ci y
o
São
Paulo.
The
s a e
has
a
popula ion
o
44
million
and
gene a es
abou
a
hi d
o
all
he
weal h
p oduced
in
he
B azilian
economy.
The
ci y
o
São
Paulo
has
a
popula ion
o
11.2
million
and
accoun s
o
abou
12%
o
B azil’s
GDP
and
o
36%
o
all
he
goods
and
se ices
p oduced
in
he
s a e.
The
me opoli an
egion
o
São
Paulo
cons i u es
one
o
he
10
la ges
me opolises
in
he
wo ld.
3.2.
P oxy
o
he
PCC’s
powe
Some
a iables
can
be
measu ed
di ec ly,
such
as
he
exis ence
o
a
ci il
gua d
co ps
o
he
implemen a ion
o
alcohol
p ohibi ion
measu es
in
he
municipali y.
O he s,
howe e ,
a e
ei he
non-obse able
( ea ed
he e
as
ixed
e ec s)
o
a e
only
obse able
h ough
p oxy
a iables.
This
is
he
case,
o
example,
o
he
p e alence
o
i ea ms
and
he
powe
o
he
PCC.
In
he
case
o
i ea ms,
he
ecen
li e a u e
has
used
he
p opo ion
o
suicides
commi ed
wi h
i ea ms
as
p oxy
a iables.
This
indica o
has
been
shown
o
be
ela ed
o
he
possession
o
weapons
a
home
epo ed
in
ic im
su eys
and
o he
indica o s
ela ed
o
weapons
(see
Ce quei a,
2014).
In
he
case
o
he
PCC,
we
canno
e en
coun
i s
membe s
in
he
municipali y
o
measu e
i s
in ensi y
o
membe ship.
The e o e,
o
measu e
he
mobilizing
powe
o
he
PCC
in
a
municipali y,
we
used
he
numbe
o
a acks
pe pe a ed
in
May
2006.
Al hough
he
ac ion
had
been
bo n
ea lie ,
i
was
only
du ing
hose
e en s
ha
i
eally
showed
i s
powe
ou side
he
walls
o
p isons
and
became
na ionally
known
and
ea ed.
In
hose
weeks,
he
o ganiza ion’s
leade s
o e ly
eques ed
i s
membe s
om
ou side
p isons
o
o ganize
a acks
on
police,
e en
h ea ening
o
dea h
hose
who
did
no
comply.
Al hough
i
is
no
possible
o
di ec ly
obse e
he
powe
o
he
PCC
wi hin
a
municipali y,
since
he
e en s
o
May
2006
we e
he
la ges
display
o
he
powe
o
he
PCC
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo,
we
assume
ha
he
numbe
o
a acks
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
215
Fig.
5.
Numbe
o
epo s
o
six
ypes
o
c imes
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
by
qua e
om
1995Q3
o
2016Q3.
Sou ce:
p epa ed
by
he
au ho .
o
d ug
a icking.
On
he
o he
hand,
e e ences
in
quali a i e
s udies
ha e
no
made
any
men ion
o
c imes
o
e en s
linked
o
p ope y,
which
unde wen
a
concomi an
dec ease.
I
is
clea
ha
such
s ylized
ac s
do
no
cons i u e
any
e idence
ha
he
PCC
cou s
ha e
no
had
a
ole
in
educing
homicides
in
São
Paulo.
On
he
o he
hand,
such
a
amewo k
con adic s
he
idea
ha
he
dec ease
in
homicides
in
bo h
he
capi al
and
in
he
s a e
as
a
whole
can
be
mainly
a ibu ed
o
he
PCC.
In
o de
o
es
he
hypo hesis
ha
he
PCC
ca el
had
a
signi ican
in luence
on
he
agg ega e
homicide
a e
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo,
we
p oduced
he
model
shown
in
he
nex
sec ion,
in
which
we
include
con ols
o
many
o
he
elemen s
men ioned
in
he
li e a u e
and
ha
may
ha e
played
a
ole
in
educing
iolen
dea hs.

216
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
6.
Concluding
ema ks
The
mys e y
abou
he
causes
ha
explain
he
subs an ial
decline
in
he
homicide
a e
in
São
Paulo
in
he
2000s
con inues
o
a ac
he
a en ion
o
schola s
and
policy
make s.
In
his
a icle,
we
sough
o
imp o e
ou
unde s anding
o
he
phenomenon.
We
e iewed
some
non-exclusi e
hypo heses
discussed
in
quali a i e
and
quan i a i e
s udies,
which
highligh :
(i)
inc eased
e iciency
o
police
wo k;
(ii)
be e
social
and
economic
condi ions;
(iii)
s ong
disa mamen
policy
implemen ed
by
he
s a e
and
abo e
all
ein o ced
by
he
in e en ion
o
he
Disa mamen
S a u e
in
Decembe
2003;
(i )
subs an ial
demog aphic
change
h ough
he
educ ion
in
he
p opo ion
o
young
people
in
he
popula ion,
so
ha
less
po en ial
ic ims
and
po en ial
c iminals
mo e
h oughou
he
s a e;
( )
inc ease
in
he
a e
o
school
a endance
o
child en
and
young
people;
( i)
implemen a ion
o
new
echnologies,
such
as
he
In oc im
sys em,
Copon-online
and
Disque
Denúncia
(C ime
Ho line);
( ii)
s ong
ac ion
by
he
PCC
c iminal
o ganiza ion
as
a
iolence-mode a ing
agen .
I
was
on
his
las
hypo hesis
ha
we
based
he
e idence
we
p esen
in
his
pape .
In
his
con ex ,
we
belie e
ha
we
ha e
made
p og ess
in
iden i ying
he
causes
o
he
ma ked
and
unin e up ed
decline
in
homicides
in
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo
in
he
2000s,
seeking
o
empi ically
es ima e
he
ole
o
he
PCC,
as
was
done
by
Bide man
e
al.
(2015).
We
ound
no
s a is ical
e idence
ha
he
p esence
and
powe
o
he
PCC
played
any
ole
in
he
a ia ion
in
he
homicide
a e
eco ded
du ing
he
pe iod
in
ques ion.
Ou
esul s
do
no
suppo
he
PCC
hypo hesis
a
he
le el
o
he
s a e
o
São
Paulo.
They
co obo a e,
howe e ,
he
esul s
o
p e ious
empi ical
s udies
on
he
ole
o
labo
ma ke
condi ions
(Jus us
and
Kassou ,
2013;
Ce quei a
and
Mou a,
2015;
Dix
Ca nei o
e
al.,
2016);
demog aphic
change
(De
Mello
and
Schneide ,
2010;
Ce quei a
and
Mou a,
2014);
In oc im
(Cab al,
2016);
inc eased
school
a endance
a e
(Chioda
e
al.,
2015;
Ce quei a
and
Mou a,
2015);
and
he
alcohol
p ohibi ion
law
(Bide man
e
al.,
2010).
I
is
wo h
emphasizing
some
aspec s
ela ed
o
o he
esul s
ound
in
his
s udy.
Fi s ,
municipali ies
began
o
ac
mo e
in ensely
in
public
secu i y
in
he
las
decade,
when
hey
c ea ed
he
municipal
gua d
co ps.
The
inc ease
in
he
numbe
o
municipal
gua ds
no
only
allowed
o
a
la ge
con ingen
o
he
Mili a y
Police
o
be
displaced
om
ac i i ies
such
as
hose
ela ed
o
he
p ese a ion
o
public
p ope y
and
he
o de ing
o
ehicle
a ic,
bu
e lec s,
abo e
all,
a
g ea e
conce n
wi h
public
secu i y
on
he
pa
o
municipali ies.
Appa en ly,
he
indica o
o
he
p esence
o
municipal
gua ds
was
able
o
cap u e
some
pa ial
e ec
o
his
a iable
in
de e mining
he
homicide
a e.
Ne e heless,
mo e
in-dep h
analysis
o
he
subjec
is
needed.
Second,
In oc im
is
a
c iminal
geo e e encing
sys em
wi h
Business
In elligence
(BI)
ea u es
inspi ed
by
he
New
Yo k’s
Comps a
sys em.
Mo e
han
a
compu e
p og am,
i
launched
a
new
o m
o
managemen
and
alloca ion
o
police
esou ces
based
on
s a is ical
in o ma ion
o
ope a ional
and
s a egic
pu poses.
The
exis ence
o
an
epidemiological
sys em
o
geo e e encing
homicides
is
one
o
he
ac o s
iden i ied
in
he
li e a u e
in
all
he
no o ious
cases
o
homicide
educ ion.
Needless
o
say,
ou
esul s
a e
alid
only
unde
he
hypo heses
we
assumed
in
he
empi ical
model.
The
main
limi a ion
is
he
possibili y
o
endogenei y
o
PCC
a acks.
Those
a acks
p o oked
a
e y
s ong
esponse
om
law
en o cemen ,
which
p omp ed
he
in es iga ion,
imp isonmen ,
and
clamping
down
on
he
o ganiza ion
in
he
municipali ies
in
which
he
a acks
occu ed.
The e o e,
i
is
possible
ha
he
supposed
PCC
e ec
was
neu alized
by
he
e icien
ac ion
o
public
secu i y
ins i u ions.
In
o he
wo ds,
e en
i
a
nega i e
e ec
had
been
ound,
i
would
no
be
possible
o
ell
i
i
e lec s
PCC
in luence
on
homicides
o
he
in luence
o
police
ac ion
in
hose
municipali ies
a e
he
a acks.
We
also
poin
ou
possible
biases
in
he
es ima ion
esul ing
om
he
de ini ion
applied
o
cons uc
he
p oxy
o
he
p esence
and
powe
o
he
PCC.
By
de ini ion,
he e
is
an
a enua ion
bias
because
we
assumed
ha
his
a iable
would
be
ze o
be o e
he
wa e
o
a acks
ca ied
ou
in
2006.
The
same
was
assumed
o
he
bina y
a iables
(p isons,
In oc im,
e c.),
because
wi hou
empo al
a iabili y
hey
could
no
en e
he
speci ica ion
in
i s
di e ence.
Ne e heless,
he
signi icance
o
hese
bina y
a iables
–
all
o
which
ha e
a
nega i e
sign
–
indica es
ha
he
ea men
ha
was
applied
a
leas
did
no
deny
he
ole
played
by
hese
a iables
in
de ining
he
homicide
a e.
Un o una ely,
we
canno
say
he
same
o
he
PCC
measu e.
On
he
one
hand,
i
his
c iminal
o ganiza ion
ope a ed
in
he
municipali y
be o e
he
wa e
o
a acks,
he
numbe
o
homicides
could
be
smalle
al eady
–
acco ding
o
he
PCC
hypo hesis.
This
ac
would
jus i y
he
non-signi icance
o
his
a iable
in
he
es ima ed
models.
On
he
o he
hand,
in
cases
whe e
a
cell
o
he
ac ion
al eady
exis ed
somewhe e
wi hou
he
cen al
command
exe ing
i s
powe
and
applying
he
ca el
ule
ye
(o
i
he
s uc u e
o
he
d ug
ma ke
was
compe i i e)
and
he
egime
only
became
a
ca el
hal
way
h ough
he
decade,
M.
Jus us
e
al.
/
EconomiA
19
(2018)
201–218
217
hen
o
p ac ical
pu poses
he e
is
no
mi iga ion
bias
in
i s
e ec
on
he
homicide
a e.
I
his
is
ue,
hen
wha
ma e s
is
no
whe he
his
c iminal
o ganiza ion
ope a ed
in
he
municipali y
in
he
pas
o
no ,
bu
a he
whe he
he
ma ke
egime
changed.
Fu u e
s udies
should
y
o
answe
his
ques ion.
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