The "São Paulo Mystery": The role of the criminal organization PCC in reducing the homicide in 2000s

Jus us, Ma celo; Ce quei a, Daniel; Kahn, Tulio; Mo ei a, Gus a o Ca alho A icle The "São Paulo Mys e y": The ole o he c iminal o ganiza ion PCC in educing he homicide in 2000s EconomiA P o ided in Coope a ion wi h: The B azilian Associa ion o Pos g adua e P og ams in Economics (ANPEC), Rio de Janei o Sugges ed Ci a ion: Jus us, Ma celo; Ce quei a, Daniel; Kahn, Tulio; Mo ei a, Gus a o Ca alho (2018) : The "São Paulo Mys e y": The ole o he c iminal o ganiza ion PCC in educing he homicide in 2000s, EconomiA, ISSN 1517-7580, Else ie , Ams e dam, Vol. 19, Iss. 2, pp. 201-218, h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.econ.2018.02.003 This Ve sion is a ailable a : h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/266919 S anda d-Nu zungsbedingungen: Die Dokumen e au EconS o dü en zu eigenen wissenscha lichen Zwecken und zum P i a geb auch gespeiche und kopie we den. Sie dü en die Dokumen e nich ü ö en liche ode komme zielle Zwecke e iel äl igen, ö en lich auss ellen, ö en lich zugänglich machen, e eiben ode ande wei ig nu zen. So e n die Ve asse die Dokumen e un e Open-Con en -Lizenzen (insbesonde e CC-Lizenzen) zu Ve ügung ges ell haben soll en, gel en abweichend on diesen Nu zungsbedingungen die in de do genann en Lizenz gewäh en Nu zungs ech e. Te ms o use: Documen s in EconS o may be sa ed and copied o you pe sonal and schola ly pu poses. You a e no o copy documen s o public o comme cial pu poses, o exhibi he documen s publicly, o make hem publicly a ailable on he in e ne , o o dis ibu e o o he wise use he documen s in public. I he documen s ha e been made a ailable unde an Open Con en Licence (especially C ea i e Commons Licences), you may exe cise u he usage igh s as speci ied in he indica ed licence. h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ A ailable online a www.sciencedi ec .com ScienceDi ec HOSTED BY EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 The “São Paulo Mys e y”: The ole o he c iminal o ganiza ion PCC in educing he homicide in 2000s Ma celo Jus usa,∗, Daniel Rica do de Cas o Ce quei ab, Tulio Kahnc, Gus a o Ca alho Mo ei ac aIns i u e o Economics a he Uni e si y o Campinas, São Paulo, B azil bIns i u e o Applied Economic Resea ch, Rio de Janei o, B azil cIndependen esea che Recei ed 7 Augus 2017; ecei ed in e ised o m 22 Feb ua y 2018; accep ed 28 Feb ua y 2018 A ailable online 12 Ma ch 2018 Abs ac We mo e o wa d in iden i ying he causes o he ma ked and sys ema ic educ ion in he homicide a e in São Paulo s a e in he 2000s. I s main objec i e was ha o in es iga ing he ole o he c iminal o ganiza ion PCC in his p ocess. We cons uc ed a i s - di e ence ixed e ec s model wi h a spa ial s uc u e whe e we con olled o a ious socioeconomic and demog aphic measu es and o he p esence o i ea ms and law-en o cemen , among o he measu es. Ou esul s do no suppo he PCC hypo hesis a he le el o he s a e o São Paulo. JEL classifica ion: K42 Keywo ds: Homicide; C iminal o ganiza ion; Violence © 2018 The Au ho s. P oduc ion and hos ing by Else ie B.V. on behal o Na ional Associa ion o Pos - g adua e Cen e s in Economics, ANPEC. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 1. In oduc ion A e 1999, he e was a dec ease in he homicide a e in he s a e o São Paulo. This dec ease occu ed in abou 500 ou o a o al o 645 municipali ies. Un il 2015, he dec ease had eached 80.9% and cons i u ed one o he mos impo an cases o c ime educ ion wo ldwide. Howe e , he easons ha con ibu ed o his no able pe o mance a e no comple ely unde s ood and s ill emain somewha o a Mys e y, abo e all because he 2000s we e p odigal o ans o ma ions in poli ics, economy, socie y, and legisla ion. Indeed, he e we e coun less changes no only na ionally, bu also egionally. Na ionally, he deba e abou public secu i y policies deepened and widened in scope. The Fede al Go e nmen ook on pa o he esponsibili y o his issue, launching he 1s Na ional Public Secu i y Plan be o e he da e scheduled o i s launch in esponse o he dea h o ∗Co esponding au ho . E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (M. Jus us), [email p o ec ed].b (D.R. de Cas o Ce quei a), [email p o ec ed] (T. Kahn), gus a [email p o ec ed] (G.C. Mo ei a). h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.econ.2018.02.003 1517-7580 © 2018 The Au ho s. P oduc ion and hos ing by Else ie B.V. on behal o Na ional Associa ion o Pos g adua e Cen e s in Economics, ANPEC. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 202 M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 he eache Geisa in he amous “Bus 174” inciden in July 2000, which caused a na ional up oa . Also o he i s ime, he issue o public secu i y ook cen e s age in he deba e a ound he municipal elec ions ha we e held in ha same yea . Since hen, he numbe o municipal gua ds has inc eased signi ican ly h oughou he coun y. Social condi ions imp o ed sys ema ically: he e we e g adual inc eases in pe capi a income, he unemploymen a e d opped, income inequali y dec eased, and school co e age and a endance a es wen up. In legisla i e e ms, he Disa mamen S a u e was enac ed a he end o 2003, pu ing a b ake on he ue a ms ace obse ed in p e ious decades. Finally, du ing ha decade, he coun y wi nessed he beginning o a deep change in he demog aphic egime, made possible by an inc ease in li e expec ancy and a subs an ial educ ion in e ili y a es, which mean ha he p opo ion o young people began o dec ease in some egions. A he s a e le el, São Paulo was one o he ew ede a i e uni s ha achie ed con inui y in go e nmen al managemen , wi h he same pa y1a he head o he s a e go e nmen since 1995. Du ing ha pe iod, many inno a ions we e made in he a ea o public secu i y, which included mo e in ensi e use o echnology and manage ial eo ganiza ion, engende ing a subs an ial inc ease in inca ce a ion a es. A he same ime, some municipali ies s a ed aking a mo e ac i e ole in public secu i y, when hey adop ed he alcohol p ohibi ion policy (d y law) in he wake o good esul s achie ed in he ci y o Diadema. Las bu no leas was he g ow h o he p ison popula ion, which acili a ed he lu ing o p isone s o join he P imei o Comando da Capi al (PCC), a c iminal o ganiza ion ha was bo n wi hin he p ison sys em and became na ionally known a e o ches a ing and pe pe a ing hund eds o a acks in May 2006. The ca eliza ion o he e ail d ug ma ke unde he leade ship o he PCC would he e o e be one o many hypo heses used o explain he Mys e y o he educ ion in homicides in São Paulo. In his complex con ex , he main objec i e o his pape is o apply an empi ical me hodology o es he hypo hesis ha he PCC ca el had a signi ican in luence on he d op in he homicide a e in he s a e o São Paulo in he 2000s. This s udy con ibu es o he li e a u e ha a emp s o explain he decline in homicide a es in São Paulo du ing he 2000s, and o he li e a u e on c iminal o ganiza ions and hei impac on c iminal beha io . Speci ically, we ocus on he beha io o he PCC ca el. While p e ious wo k has ocused on his c iminal o ganiza ion, we p o ide a mo e s anda d econome ic app oach o hinking abou he e ec o his o ganiza ion on he “Mys e y” o he decline in homicide a es in São Paulo. This pape is s uc u ed as ollows. In Sec ion 2, we p esen he s udy a ea, he “São Paulo Mys e y” and quan i a i e and quali a i e s udies ha looked in o he possible causes o homicide educ ion in São Paulo. In his sec ion we also discuss he economic con ex o o ganized c ime and pay special a en ion o he so-called “PCC hypo hesis”. In Sec ion 3, we b ie ly discuss he p oxy a iable we use o he p esence and powe o he PCC in he s a e o São Paulo, ou empi ical model, iden i ica ion s a egy, and he da a sou ces ha we e used. Sec ion 4 shows esul s. In he Sec ion 5 we p esen s i e ac s inconsis en wi h he PCC hypo hesis. We conclude he a icle in Sec ion 6, whe e we p esen s he limi a ions o in e ences. 2. Backg ound and p e ious s udies 2.1. The “São Paulo Mys e y” Acco ding o da a om he Public Secu i y Sec e a ia o he S a e São Paulo (Sec e a ia de Segu an¸ca Pública, SSP-SP) and om he B azilian Ins i u e o Geog aphy and S a is ics (Ins i u o B asilei o de Geog afia e Es a ís ica, IBGE), he s a e o São Paulo had a a e o 44 homicides pe 100,000 popula ion in 1999, while he na ional a e age was 26.2. This placed he s a e o São Paulo among he mos iolen egions o he wo ld Uni ed Na ions O ice on d ugs and c ime, 2006. In 2012, he a e ell o 11.5, below he egional a e age in he Ame icas (28.5) bu s ill abo e he wo ld a e age (6.7) (Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion, 2014). Following his end, in 2015 he a e was 8.4 (SSP-SP, 2016). The “São Paulo Mys e y” esul ed om his g adual and unin e up ed d op in he homicide a e (Fig. 1). As in he case o New Yo k (see Le i , 2004), schola s a e in en on unde s anding he causes o his Mys e y o he s a e o São Paulo. 1Excep o he pe iod be ween Ma ch 31, 2006 and Janua y 1, 2007, when Vice Go e no Claudio Lembo assumed he go e nmen a e he esigna ion o Go e no Ge aldo Alkmin. M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 203 Fig. 1. Numbe o homicides epo ed by qua e om 1995Q3 o 2016Q3. Sou ce: p epa ed by he au ho s. 2.2. O ganized c ime and PCC hypo hesis The PCC is he la ges and mos amous c iminal o ganiza ion in B azil. I was ini ially es ablished in he p ison sys em o he s a e o São Paulo and g adually ook command o all p isons in he coun y due o he lack o p esence o he s a e and o he pu pose o ensu ing be e inca ce a ion condi ions o inma es (Biondi, 2009). In 1993, one o he ounde s o he o ganiza ion d a ed a s a u e o he union o he de ainees wi h he aim o a oiding mis ea men and o egula ing wha inma es could do o no (Biondi, 2009). The exis ence o he PCC was only o icially ecognized in 2000, based on an in es iga ion ca ied ou by he Sec e a ia o Peni en ia y Adminis a ion. F om ha ime onwa d, he ans e o i s main leade s o o he p isons ou side he s a e only helped o sp ead he p inciples o he o ganiza ion h oughou he coun y (Biondi, 2009). The i s display o powe o he o ganiza ion occu ed in 2001, when ebellions ook place in 29 p isons in he s a e o São Paulo. The wide co e age o he mass media and he success o he ebellions s eng hened he PCC cul u e in u ban a eas as well (Biondi, 2009). I was in May 2006, a e 765 p isone s we e ans e ed o a maximum secu i y uni , including he PCC leade , ha he o ganiza ion ca ied ou i s mos calami ous ac ion. Acco ding o Cano and Al adia (2008), he e we e 84 ebellions in p isons h oughou B azil, 74 o which in he s a e o São Paulo, as well as 300 a acks on public acili ies, 84 buses se on i e, 17 a acks on bank b anches, and mo e han 500 dead among ci ilians and he mili a y. The PCC is p esen in all he na ional e i o y and in some coun ies in La in Ame ica, ac ing in obbe ies, bank obbe ies, and a ms and d ug a icking. The B azilian Public P osecu o ’s O ice es ima es ha he o ganiza ion’s mon hly e enue in 2015 amoun ed o 16 million eals. 204 M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 Fo mo e de ails on he PCC’s expansion and consolida ion p ocess in he São Paulo p ison sys em and he social ole i es ablished in ha sys em as a esul o monopolizing oppo uni ies o inc easing i s powe , see Dias (2011). Acco ding o McCa hy (2013), i is di icul o de e mine a gene al heo y o o ganized c ime. In Lampe (2016), o example, we ind 180 de ini ions o “o ganized c ime” in he wo ld. Thei o igins, s uc u es, and modus ope andi di e signi ican ly. The only ce ain y we ha e is ha hey a e o ganized and ha hei business is based on an illegal ac i i y o wha kind o ano he . Thei o igin lies undamen ally in he s a e’s lack o powe o gua an ee law en o cemen and c iminal jus ice (Fio en ini and Pel zman, 1997; Skape das, 2001; McCa hy, 2013). Bandie a (2003) men ions ha he Sicilian ma ia eme ged om he I alian ag a ian e o m o gua an ee p o ec ion and p ope y igh s o he popula ion. In ano he way, he p esence o he s a e can also con ibu e o he de elopmen o c iminal o ganiza ions by p ohibi ing he p oduc ion and dis ibu ion o ce ain high-demand goods and se ices wi h a ac i e p o i abili y (Kuma and Skape das, 2008). C iminal o ganiza ions a e ac ually co po a ions wo king a ionally wi h a wide a ie y o businesses anging om mic o- a icking and he o highly complex ansna ional c ime o ganiza ions engaged in ac i i ies such as money launde ing, d ug a icking, and co up ion. Thei p edominan s uc u e is hie a chical (Le i and Venka esh, 2000; McCa hy, 2013). Like any o ganiza ion, he p inciples o loyal y, mo i a ion, and p o i -making a e desi able equi emen s. Howe e , he e is no way o u n o he police o legal sys em in he ace o con ac ual o inancial con lic s in hei business chain (Kuma and Skape das, 2008). Despi e his, he alidi y o con ac s can be much mo e e ec i e, since penal ies end o be mo e se e e and o en ca ied ou h ough iolence. Jus as in he legal ma ke , we can expec new playe s o join in i illegal ac i i ies gene a e p o i . Acco ding o economic heo y, b eaking a monopoly o inc easing compe i ion leads o g ea e e iciency. Howe e , his peace ul balance may no occu , gi en he cul u e o using iolence agains i al o ganiza ions (Kuma and Skape das, 2008). In Mexico, o example, he homicide a e g ew by abou 1.000% be ween 2006 and 2010. The main explana ion lies in he wa o e i o y be ween he Jua ez and Sinaloa ca els (Dudley, 2014). Acco ding o Boucha d and Wilkins (2010), he Nash equilib ium o hese con lic s would occu in a s uc u e simila o monopolis ic compe i ion, wi h each g oup ac ing in speci ic egions. The dis ibu ion o Colombian cocaine in ci ies in he Uni ed S a es, o example, was di ided by ag eemen s be ween he Cali and Medellin ca els ha emained in o ce o a ce ain pe iod (Clawson and Lee, 1996). The same holds ue when dealing wi h legal au ho i ies such as law en o cemen and he judicia y. I hey a e no in he way o hei business, by accep ing b ibes, he e is balance wi hou iolence. O he wise, Daniele and Ma ani (2011) poin ou ha he e is a end o mo e ac i e co up ion o e en bomb a acks and a son, wi h he aim o d awing he a en ion o poli ical agen s. I he e is balance, he cul u e o c iminal o ganiza ions o using iolence di e s acco ding o hei cha ac e is ics, o he en i onmen , and also o he ype o c ime. The Medellín Ca el, o example, was led by Pablo Escoba , who employed plen y o iolence o achie e his goals. The Cali Ca el, which succeeded he Medellín Ca el, employed i ually no iolence as a s a egy so as no o d aw he a en ion o he au ho i ies (McCa hy, 2013). In addi ion o hese examples, consolida ing a c iminal o ganiza ion in o a mul i-gang en i onmen can also lead o o de , as a esul o egula ing p ope y igh s and secu i y se ices. This can be e i ied in Biondi (2014), who obse es he bene i s ci ed by he esiden s o he p esence o o ganized c ime in a elas in he ci y o São Paulo, B azil. Speci ic c imes such as iolence agains women and ape a e also expec ed o dec ease, since he p inciple o espec o women is obse ed by many o hese o ganiza ions (McCa hy, 2013). Gi en his di e si y, i is di icul o de e mine a gene al pa e n, esul ing in he need o analyze iolence and i s consequences on a case-by-case basis. The ela ionship be ween o ganized c ime and homicides is ambiguous. The e is e idence ha o ganized c ime can con ibu e o bo h inc easing and dec easing homicide a es a a gi en loca ion and ime. The conjec u e is ha he mo e o ganized c ime is, he lowe he need and a ionali y o ac ing wi h iolence. The ypical model is ha o he I alian Ma ia o o he Yakusa, which p e e o b ibe and co-op public agen s and sha e hei business a he han exchange sho s wi h au ho i ies o engage in a med dispu es wi h i al g oups. In B azil, a classic example is ha o he so-called Animal Lo e y, which is a much olde and mo e o ganized illegal ac i i y han d ug a icking and doesn’ in ol e iolence. In his con ex , a c iminal o ganiza ion has li le in luence on homicide a es and may e en con ibu e o educing homicides i i was in con lic wi h au ho i ies o compe ing g oups in a p e ious pe iod. A high numbe o dea hs in clashes wi h police o be ween membe s o i al g oups, as seen in Rio de Janei o, can be an indica o o o ganiza ional gaps. Exchanging sho s wi h police and i al g oups is bad o business, while joining in e es s h ough ag eemen s seems o be he mos e ec i e s a egy. M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 205 Recen ly, analys s began o e e o he d op seen in homicide a es in Medellín and El Sal ado as an example o how homicides can dec ease when o ganized c ime s ops eso ing o iolence while go e nmen akes mo e e icien ac ions and imp o es social and economic condi ions o he popula ion. In Medellin, homicide a es d opped ab up ly in 2003, when he Bloque Cacique Nu iba a (BCN) was demobilized, and began o ise again in 2008 a e i s local leade was ex adi ed, gi ing ise o a dispu e be ween c iminal ac ions o e d ug a icking. A e his ou b eak o iolence was o e , homicide a es ook a down u n once again in 2009 (Ga zón-Ve ga a, 2016; Lessing, 2016). In El Sal ado , a uce be ween he go e nmen and wo c iminal ac ions in 2012 may ha e con ibu ed o a wo-yea decline in homicide a es, which began o ise again a e he ag eemen ell apa in 2013. A new s a egy o con on ing gangs adop ed in 2014 may ha e led homicide a es o ise om hen on. No empi ical s udy has been ca ied ou in connec ion wi h any o hese cases o measu e his impac on homi- cides con olling o o he de e minan s o iolence. Sudden declines in homicide a es oughly coinciding wi h uce ag eemen s be ween go e nmen s and gangs a e he only clues. The ela ionship be ween o ganized c ime and homicides is complex and de e mined by he amoun o i ea ms a ailable, e i o ial con ol by ac ions, he p osecu ing capaci y o he s a e, and g ea e o lesse emphasis on a di ec con on a ion s a egy, among many o he ac o s (Ga zón-Ve ga a, 2016; Lessing, 2016). Wha was seen in São Paulo, on he o he hand, was a g adual and cons an decline in homicides as o 2000 and no ab up declines ollowed by inc eases, as in he cases o Medellin and El Sal ado . Unlike wha happened in Rio de Janei o and in hose ci ies, con olling e i o ies o d ug a icking pu poses – whe e police a e ecei ed wi h gun i e – is a much less adop ed p ac ice. The e a e no a eas in he s a e o São Paulo os ensibly con olled by a med d ug deale s whe e police a e no allowed o en e peace ully. Peni en ia ies a e an excep ion, as hese a e clea ly con olled by he PCC gang. São Paulo is also one o he B azilian s a es wi h he highes homicide esolu ion and con ic ion a es. I should be no ed ha , unlike he cases o Medellin and El Sal ado , he e has ne e been an explici pac o ag eemen be ween he go e nmen o São Paulo and o ganized c ime o educe iolence. The case o Rio de Janei o dese es men ion in his con ex . The e is a ie ce dispu e be ween di e en and hea ily a med ac ions o e d ug ou le s and hese ac ions os ensibly con ol he communi ies whe e hey ope a e. I is a well-known ac ha he capaci y o he Rio de Janei o Police Depa men o in es iga e and a es he leade s o hese gangs is clea ly a om ideal. No ag eemen has been en e ed in o o demobilize o educe iolence be ween he go e nmen o Rio de Janei o and c iminals. Howe e , homicide a es in Rio de Janei o ell unin e up edly o a decade, be ween 2003 and 2013. I can be specula ed ha he dec ease in homicide a es in Rio is due o ac o s such as a educ ion in he numbe o i ea ms in ci cula ion, imp o emen s in he economic si ua ion, and law-en o cemen leade ship and inno a ions (such as se ing up Paci ying Police Uni s – UPPs – in slums), as obse ed in São Paulo. Nei he he dec ease no he inc ease in homicide a es seen in Rio a e 2014 seem o be ela ed o he capaci y o o ganized c ime o egula e iolence in he e i o ies in which i ope a es. Thus, a gumen s acco ding o which he a ia ions obse ed in homicide a es in Medellín and El Sal ado a e p edominan ly due o a ia ions in he capaci y o o ganized c ime o egula e iolence a e agile. These a ia ions may be mo e indica i e o he in ensi y o con on a ional policies adop ed by public au ho i ies han o he egula ing capaci y o o ganized c ime. I is also no app op ia e o compa e he decline in homicides in São Paulo wi h he abo e-men ioned examples due o he e y di e en cha ac e is ics o he local con ex s: g adual and widesp ead decline h oughou he s a e, e en in hund eds o municipali ies whe e o ganized c ime is no p esen . I is possible ha o ganized c ime has an e ec o some kind on educing homicides, bu i is limi ed o some slums in São Paulo ci y. The ield o empi ical esea ch in c iminology is eminen ly mul idisciplina y, and one in which di e en adi ions, me hods, and app oaches, bo h quan i a i e and quali a i e, coexis . As Webe said, no me hodology is a p io i be e han ano he . Di e en me hods can and should be ecommended o di e en analyses, depending on he goal o he esea ch, as well as on he cons ain s in ol ed in ob aining in o ma ion. Ne e heless, he app oaches can be compa ed wi h ega d o he c i e ia o in e nal and ex e nal alida ion o a hypo hesis ha one wishes o pu o he es . Resea ch wi h high in e nal alida ion will be able o e u e al e na i e hypo heses, a oiding spu ious co ela ions ha concu o a mis aken unde s anding o a gi en phenomenon. On he o he hand, ex e nal alida ion o e s g ea e gua an ee ha he esul s ob ained can be gene alized o a popula ion and a e no dependen on a sample o pa icula si ua ion. In an e hnog aphic esea ch, Biondi (2009) p o ides e idence ha he ans o ma ions b ough abou by he PCC we e e y bene icial o de ainees, as he c ea ion o o de a oided physical assaul s and sexual iolence and ensu ed 206 M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 espec o he ma e ial goods o each o i s membe s. In addi ion o he ac ha i c ea ed in e nal o de , he PCC hypo hesis is subs an ia ed by he idea ha many mu de s ha ook place in e i o ies compe ed o and o he c iminal ac s commi ed o e enge, se ling o sco es, e c., would no longe be accep ed by he cen al command o he o ganiza ion wi hou p io and ca ego ical au ho iza ion. A single pape (Bide man e al., 2015) employing a quan i a i e app oach measu ed he alleged impac o he PCC. These au ho s ound ha he powe o his c iminal o ganiza ion accoun ed o app oxima ely 7% o he dec ease in homicides in he slums in he capi al o São Paulo s a e con olled by he PCC. On he o he hand, nume ous e hnog aphic s udies concluded ha he e was a no able e ec o he ac ions o he PCC as a leading ac o in educing homicides in São Paulo. E hnog aphic analysis and in e iews wi h he ac o s in ol ed we e he empi ical basis o hose s udies. Despi e he ichness o de ails and he deepe unde s anding o he social connec ions in ol ed in he phenomenon ha hose s udies p o ided, he e a e in insic limi s o he e hnog aphic me hod in e ms o ex apola ing conclusions o show gene alized causal e ec s. We a e no disquali ying his esea ch, le alone saying ha he g oup had no bea ing on he educ ion in homicides. We only a gue ha his in luence and i s eal weigh ha e no been con i med. I is possible ha he ole played by he PCC in he imagina ion o people li ing in subu bs, jou nalis s, and esea che s is much g ea e han i s ac ual ole in explaining he phenomenon. The mos incisi e de ense o he PCC hypo hesis is one made by Willis (2013), an an h opologis who s udied homicides in São Paulo be ween 2009 and 2012, ollowing he wo k o DHPP policemen and in e iewing esiden s om he ou ski s o he capi al. Al hough e y ich in he desc ip ion o he ac ion’s unc ioning and o he mo al a gumen s cons uc ed by he ac o s in ol ed o jus i y who can kill and who mus die, ha s udy pu s o wa d a weak a gumen when i ies o a gue ha he dec ease in homicides in São Paulo was mainly due o he PCC and ha law en o cemen , known o i s ine iciency, would ha e li le ela ion wi h he phenomenon. I should be no ed, howe e , ha he au ho ca ied ou his esea ch only in he ci y o São Paulo, speci ically in some a elas in he capi al whe e he PCC was ac i e, and as we ha e seen, he dec ease in homicides was widesp ead in he s a e, occu ing in mos o i s municipali ies. The au ho assumes ha mos homicides a e p emedi a ed and ha he ac ion can he e o e a oid hem. I is also assumed ha he ac ion exe s i s in luence no only among he membe s o he g oup and in communi ies, bu also in all o he con ex s. This app oach holds he e oneous assump ion ha he only way ha au ho i ies can a ec he homicide a e is h ough in es iga ions ca ied ou by he DHPP. This agency deals only wi h homicides by unknown c iminals ha occu ed in he ci y o São Paulo, which causes bias in he esea ch. The dec ease in o he ypes o c ime in he s a e o e he same pe iod, such as ehicle obbe y/ he and obbe y ollowed by homicide, is no conside ed and canno su icien ly explain he dec ease in in e pe sonal homicides. The au ho s ill does no acknowledge he in luence o he powe o he s a e in he p ocess, e en hough he e is empi ical e idence ha public secu i y policy has also played a majo ole in educing homicides. Some quan i a i e s udies we e de eloped o es a ious hypo heses wi h he aim o explaining he cause o he dec ease in homicides in São Paulo. Table 1 summa izes some o hose s udies. I is wo h men ioning ha , whe eas quan i a i e me hods a e gene ally use ul o es ing hypo heses, ha ing as hei ul ima e me hodological conce n he p inciples o simplici y and in e nal and ex e nal alida ion, quali a i e me hods, and e hnog aphic wo k in pa icula , seek o ob ain a deepe unde s anding abou , and a de ailed desc ip ion o , ce ain social ela ions; and abou alues and belie s ha guide he ac ions o indi iduals. On he o he hand, he e y na u e o quali a i e esea ch does no lend i sel o he objec i e o in e nal and ex e nal alida ion o hypo heses, also because he indi iduals obse ed a e pa o a pa icula social con ex and hei belie s and alues a e limi ed o hei se o in o ma ion and expe iences. In he quan i a i e s udies lis ed he e, he au ho s con i med hypo heses abou he impo ance o ce ain ac o s ha con ibu ed o he gene al dec ease in homicides in São Paulo. These include: he disa mamen policy, imp o emen s in socio-economic condi ions, inc eased school a endance among young people, a dec ease in he p opo ion o young people in he popula ion, echnological and o ganiza ional inno a ions in public secu i y managemen (such as he In oc im sys em), and a decline in he c ack epidemic cycle. A he same ime, De Mello and Schneide (2010) ound local e ec s o he implemen a ion o he alcohol p ohibi ion policy (d y law) in some municipali ies. Ce quei a (2014) shows ha he Disa mamen S a u e was e ec i e in educing he homicide a e in he s a e o São Paulo, and ha a dec ease o 1% in guns in he hands o ci izens educed he homicide a e by app oxima ely 2%. The e idence ound by Jus us and Kassou (2013) e eal ha he Disa mamen S a u e educed he a e o le hal c imes (homicide and obbe y ollowed by homicide) in he capi al, ein o cing he indings o ha s udy. They also highligh ed he ole o imp o ed economic condi ions leading o be e law en o cemen pe o mance in educing he a e o le hal c imes in he capi al o São Paulo s a e. Cab al (2016) ound a s ong e ec o he adop ion o new public M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 207 Table 1 Empi ical p e ious s udies on alleged causes o he homicides a e educ ion in São Paulo. Hypo hesis Au ho s Me hodology Spa ial dimension Time dimension PCC pa icipa ion Bide man e al. (2015) Panel da a analysis Slums (Fa elas) o São Paulo ci y 2005–2009 Disa mamen Ha ung (2009) Time se ies analysis S a e o São Paulo 2001–2007 Ce quei a (2014) Panel da a analysis (painel IV) Municipali ies o São Paulo 2001–2007 Jus us and Kassou (2013) Time se ies analysis (coin eg a ion analysis) São Paulo ci y 1997–2010 Ce quei a and De Mello (2013) Panel da a analysis (painel IV) Municipali ies o São Paulo 2001–2007 Family s uc u e Ha ung (2009) Panel da a analysis Municipali ies o São Paulo 1997–2007 D y law Bide man e al. (2010) Panel da a analysis G ea e São Paulo 2001–2004 Demog aphy De Mello and Schneide (2010) Panel da a analysis Municipali ies o São Paulo 1992–2005 Ce quei a and Mou a (2014) Panel da a analysis B azilian municipali ies 1991, 2000 and 2010 Labo ma ke Dix Ca nei o e al. (2016) Panel da a analysis (painel IV) B azilian municipali ies 1991, 2000 and 2010 Ce quei a and Mou a (2015) Panel da a analysis (painel IV) B azilian municipali ies 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010 Jus us and Kassou (2013) Time se ies analysis (coin eg a ion analysis) São Paulo ci y 1997 and 2010 Social p og ams Chioda e al. (2015) Panel da a analysis (painel IV) São Paulo ci y 2006 and 2009 Police in elligence (In oc im) Cab al (2016) Panel da a analysis (spa ial painel model) Municipali ies o São Paulo 2000 and 2010 D ugs De Mello (2015) Panel da a analysis G ea e São Paulo 1984–2005 Sou ce: p epa ed by he au ho s. 208 M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 Fig. 2. The S a e o São Paulo: São Paulo ci y, G ea e São Paulo and non-me opoli an municipali ies. Sou ce: p epa ed by he au ho s. secu i y echnologies in he s a e o São Paulo in he e alua ion o he impac o he In oc im sys em. The au ho a gues ha his police in o ma ion sys em was esponsible o an a e age educ ion o 8.4 in he homicide a e pe one hund ed housand popula ion, a oiding 3472 homicides om i s implemen a ion in 2003–2010. 3. Me hod 3.1. The s udy a ea Fig. 2 shows he s udy a ea wi hin B azil: he s a e o São Paulo. I is loca ed in B azil’s sou heas egion and consis s o 645 municipali ies, 39 o which a e loca ed in he me opoli an a ea called G ea e São Paulo, and he capi al ci y o São Paulo. The s a e has a popula ion o 44 million and gene a es abou a hi d o all he weal h p oduced in he B azilian economy. The ci y o São Paulo has a popula ion o 11.2 million and accoun s o abou 12% o B azil’s GDP and o 36% o all he goods and se ices p oduced in he s a e. The me opoli an egion o São Paulo cons i u es one o he 10 la ges me opolises in he wo ld. 3.2. P oxy o he PCC’s powe Some a iables can be measu ed di ec ly, such as he exis ence o a ci il gua d co ps o he implemen a ion o alcohol p ohibi ion measu es in he municipali y. O he s, howe e , a e ei he non-obse able ( ea ed he e as ixed e ec s) o a e only obse able h ough p oxy a iables. This is he case, o example, o he p e alence o i ea ms and he powe o he PCC. In he case o i ea ms, he ecen li e a u e has used he p opo ion o suicides commi ed wi h i ea ms as p oxy a iables. This indica o has been shown o be ela ed o he possession o weapons a home epo ed in ic im su eys and o he indica o s ela ed o weapons (see Ce quei a, 2014). In he case o he PCC, we canno e en coun i s membe s in he municipali y o measu e i s in ensi y o membe ship. The e o e, o measu e he mobilizing powe o he PCC in a municipali y, we used he numbe o a acks pe pe a ed in May 2006. Al hough he ac ion had been bo n ea lie , i was only du ing hose e en s ha i eally showed i s powe ou side he walls o p isons and became na ionally known and ea ed. In hose weeks, he o ganiza ion’s leade s o e ly eques ed i s membe s om ou side p isons o o ganize a acks on police, e en h ea ening o dea h hose who did no comply. Al hough i is no possible o di ec ly obse e he powe o he PCC wi hin a municipali y, since he e en s o May 2006 we e he la ges display o he powe o he PCC in he s a e o São Paulo, we assume ha he numbe o a acks M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 215 Fig. 5. Numbe o epo s o six ypes o c imes in he s a e o São Paulo by qua e om 1995Q3 o 2016Q3. Sou ce: p epa ed by he au ho . o d ug a icking. On he o he hand, e e ences in quali a i e s udies ha e no made any men ion o c imes o e en s linked o p ope y, which unde wen a concomi an dec ease. I is clea ha such s ylized ac s do no cons i u e any e idence ha he PCC cou s ha e no had a ole in educing homicides in São Paulo. On he o he hand, such a amewo k con adic s he idea ha he dec ease in homicides in bo h he capi al and in he s a e as a whole can be mainly a ibu ed o he PCC. In o de o es he hypo hesis ha he PCC ca el had a signi ican in luence on he agg ega e homicide a e in he s a e o São Paulo, we p oduced he model shown in he nex sec ion, in which we include con ols o many o he elemen s men ioned in he li e a u e and ha may ha e played a ole in educing iolen dea hs. 216 M. Jus us e al. / EconomiA 19 (2018) 201–218 6. Concluding ema ks The mys e y abou he causes ha explain he subs an ial decline in he homicide a e in São Paulo in he 2000s con inues o a ac he a en ion o schola s and policy make s. In his a icle, we sough o imp o e ou unde s anding o he phenomenon. We e iewed some non-exclusi e hypo heses discussed in quali a i e and quan i a i e s udies, which highligh : (i) inc eased e iciency o police wo k; (ii) be e social and economic condi ions; (iii) s ong disa mamen policy implemen ed by he s a e and abo e all ein o ced by he in e en ion o he Disa mamen S a u e in Decembe 2003; (i ) subs an ial demog aphic change h ough he educ ion in he p opo ion o young people in he popula ion, so ha less po en ial ic ims and po en ial c iminals mo e h oughou he s a e; ( ) inc ease in he a e o school a endance o child en and young people; ( i) implemen a ion o new echnologies, such as he In oc im sys em, Copon-online and Disque Denúncia (C ime Ho line); ( ii) s ong ac ion by he PCC c iminal o ganiza ion as a iolence-mode a ing agen . I was on his las hypo hesis ha we based he e idence we p esen in his pape . In his con ex , we belie e ha we ha e made p og ess in iden i ying he causes o he ma ked and unin e up ed decline in homicides in he s a e o São Paulo in he 2000s, seeking o empi ically es ima e he ole o he PCC, as was done by Bide man e al. (2015). We ound no s a is ical e idence ha he p esence and powe o he PCC played any ole in he a ia ion in he homicide a e eco ded du ing he pe iod in ques ion. Ou esul s do no suppo he PCC hypo hesis a he le el o he s a e o São Paulo. They co obo a e, howe e , he esul s o p e ious empi ical s udies on he ole o labo ma ke condi ions (Jus us and Kassou , 2013; Ce quei a and Mou a, 2015; Dix Ca nei o e al., 2016); demog aphic change (De Mello and Schneide , 2010; Ce quei a and Mou a, 2014); In oc im (Cab al, 2016); inc eased school a endance a e (Chioda e al., 2015; Ce quei a and Mou a, 2015); and he alcohol p ohibi ion law (Bide man e al., 2010). I is wo h emphasizing some aspec s ela ed o o he esul s ound in his s udy. Fi s , municipali ies began o ac mo e in ensely in public secu i y in he las decade, when hey c ea ed he municipal gua d co ps. The inc ease in he numbe o municipal gua ds no only allowed o a la ge con ingen o he Mili a y Police o be displaced om ac i i ies such as hose ela ed o he p ese a ion o public p ope y and he o de ing o ehicle a ic, bu e lec s, abo e all, a g ea e conce n wi h public secu i y on he pa o municipali ies. Appa en ly, he indica o o he p esence o municipal gua ds was able o cap u e some pa ial e ec o his a iable in de e mining he homicide a e. Ne e heless, mo e in-dep h analysis o he subjec is needed. Second, In oc im is a c iminal geo e e encing sys em wi h Business In elligence (BI) ea u es inspi ed by he New Yo k’s Comps a sys em. Mo e han a compu e p og am, i launched a new o m o managemen and alloca ion o police esou ces based on s a is ical in o ma ion o ope a ional and s a egic pu poses. The exis ence o an epidemiological sys em o geo e e encing homicides is one o he ac o s iden i ied in he li e a u e in all he no o ious cases o homicide educ ion. Needless o say, ou esul s a e alid only unde he hypo heses we assumed in he empi ical model. The main limi a ion is he possibili y o endogenei y o PCC a acks. Those a acks p o oked a e y s ong esponse om law en o cemen , which p omp ed he in es iga ion, imp isonmen , and clamping down on he o ganiza ion in he municipali ies in which he a acks occu ed. The e o e, i is possible ha he supposed PCC e ec was neu alized by he e icien ac ion o public secu i y ins i u ions. In o he wo ds, e en i a nega i e e ec had been ound, i would no be possible o ell i i e lec s PCC in luence on homicides o he in luence o police ac ion in hose municipali ies a e he a acks. We also poin ou possible biases in he es ima ion esul ing om he de ini ion applied o cons uc he p oxy o he p esence and powe o he PCC. By de ini ion, he e is an a enua ion bias because we assumed ha his a iable would be ze o be o e he wa e o a acks ca ied ou in 2006. The same was assumed o he bina y a iables (p isons, In oc im, e c.), because wi hou empo al a iabili y hey could no en e he speci ica ion in i s di e ence. Ne e heless, he signi icance o hese bina y a iables – all o which ha e a nega i e sign – indica es ha he ea men ha was applied a leas did no deny he ole played by hese a iables in de ining he homicide a e. Un o una ely, we canno say he same o he PCC measu e. On he one hand, i his c iminal o ganiza ion ope a ed in he municipali y be o e he wa e o a acks, he numbe o homicides could be smalle al eady – acco ding o he PCC hypo hesis. This ac would jus i y he non-signi icance o his a iable in he es ima ed models. 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