S ende , F ede ik e al.
Wo king Pape
The Global Sou h and US ade policy: S uc u al exposu e
and economic ulne abili y in selec ed A ican coun ies
IDOS Discussion Pape , No. 25/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS), Bonn
Sugges ed Ci a ion: S ende , F ede ik e al. (2025) : The Global Sou h and US ade policy: S uc u al
exposu e and economic ulne abili y in selec ed A ican coun ies, IDOS Discussion Pape , No.
25/2025, ISBN 978-3-96021-270-6, Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS),
Bonn,
h ps://doi.o g/10.23661/idp25.2025
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The Global Sou h and US T ade Policy
S uc u al Exposu e and Economic Vulne abili y
in Selec ed A ican Coun ies
F ede ik S ende
Tim Vogel
Lukas Ko nhe
Zo yana Olekseyuk
Sascha Be nd
And eas Edele
IDOS DISCUSSION PAPER
25/2025
The Global Sou h and US ade policy
S uc u al exposu e and economic
ulne abili y in selec ed A ican coun ies
F ede ik S ende
Tim Vogel
Lukas Ko nhe
Zo yana Olekseyuk
Sascha Be nd
And eas Edele
Bonn 2025
D F ede ik S ende is a Senio Resea che in he esea ch depa men “T ans o ma ion o Economic and
Social Sys ems” a he Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) in Bonn.
Email: ede ik.s ende @idos- esea ch.de
D Tim Vogel is a Resea che in he esea ch depa men “T ans o ma ion o Economic and Social Sys ems”
a IDOS.
Email: im. ogel@idos- esea ch.de
D Lukas Ko nhe is a Senio Resea che in he esea ch depa men “T ans o ma ion o Economic and Social
Sys ems” a IDOS.
Email: lukas.ko nhe @idos- esea ch.de
D Zo yana Olekseyuk is a P ojec Lead and Senio Resea che in he esea ch depa men “T ans o ma ion
o Economic and Social Sys ems” a IDOS.
Email: zo yana.olekseyuk@idos- esea ch.de
Sascha Be nd is a T ade Policy Expe a Deu sche Gesellscha ü In e na ionale Zusammena bei (GIZ) GmbH.
Email: sascha.be nd @giz.de
And eas Edele is a T ade Policy Expe a Deu sche Gesellscha ü In e na ionale Zusammena bei (GIZ) GmbH.
Email: and eas.ed[email p o ec ed]
The Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) is ins i u ionally inanced by he Fede al Minis y
o Economic Coope a ion and De elopmen (BMZ), based on a esolu ion o he Ge man Bundes ag, and he
s a e o No h Rhine-Wes phalia (NRW) as a membe o he Johannes-Rau-Fo schungsgemeinscha (JRF).
Sugges ed ci a ion:
S ende , F., Vogel, T., Ko nhe , L., Olekseyuk, O., Be nd , S., & Edele, A. (2025). The Global Sou h and US ade
policy: S uc u al exposu e and economic ulne abili y in selec ed A ican coun ies (IDOS Discussion Pape
25/2025). Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS). h ps://doi.o g/10.23661/idp25.2025
Disclaime :
The analyses exp essed in his pape a e hose o he au ho (s) and do no necessa ily e lec he iews o
policies o he Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS).
Excep o he wise no ed, his publica ion is licensed unde C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY 4.0). You a e
ee o copy, communica e and adap his wo k, as long as you a ibu e he Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen
and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) gGmbH and he au ho (s).
IDOS Discussion Pape / Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) gGmbH
ISSN 2751-4439 (P in )
ISSN 2751-4447 (Online)
ISBN 978-3-96021-270-6(P in )
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.23661/idp25.2025
© Ge man Ins i u e o De elopmen and Sus ainabili y (IDOS) gGmbH
Tulpen eld 6, 53113 Bonn
Email: publica ions@idos- esea ch.de
h ps://www.idos- esea ch.de
P in ed on eco- iendly, ce i ied pape .
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
III
Acknowledgemen s
We a e g a e ul o Cla a B andi, Ch is oph Somme and Tim Rö hel o hei aluable eedback.
We also since ely app ecia e he insigh ul discussions wi h colleagues om he Deu sche
Gesellscha ü In e na ionale Zusammena bei (GIZ) and he T ade Di ision a he Ge man
Fede al Minis y o Economic Coope a ion and De elopmen (BMZ) on an ea lie e sion o his
pape . Special hanks go o Melike Dö e o gene ously sha ing he insigh s on alue addi ion
in he appa el sec o wi hin he Sou he n A ican De elopmen Communi y (SADC). The iews
exp essed in his pape e lec he pe sonal opinions o he au ho s. Any emaining e o s a e
ou esponsibili y.
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
IV
Abs ac
Uni ed S a es (US) ade policy has unde gone a se ies o signi ican changes in oducing a -
eaching unce ain y o ading pa ne s in bo h he sho and long e m. Among he mos
ulne able o hese changes a e low- and middle-income coun ies. An icipa ing he po en ial
impac o p oposed o enac ed US ade measu es ex-an e is di icul . The e o e, his discussion
pape examines he s uc u al ulne abili ies o a selec ion o A ican coun ies – Leso ho,
Madagasca , Cô e d’I oi e, Sou h A ica, and Tunisia – o ecen shi s. Using desc ip i e ade
da a, he pape maps di ec and indi ec channels o exposu e and highligh s he s uc u al
cons ain s ha ampli y ulne abili y. While A ica is no among he mos di ec ly exposed
egions, se e al coun ies ace signi ican isks due o concen a ed expo s uc u es, eliance
on a ew ade pa ne s, and limi ed capaci y o edi ec ade in he sho e m. This highligh s
he s a egic impo ance o A ican coun ies o s eng hen egional in eg a ion, indus ial
upg ading, and educe ex e nal dependencies.
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
V
Con en s
Acknowledgemen s
Abs ac
P e ace
Abb e ia ions
1 In oduc ion 1
2 Mapping exposu e, ulne abili ies and policy esponse capaci ies ac oss A ica 2
2.1 Leso ho 3
2.2 Madagasca 5
2.3 Sou h A ica 7
2.4 Cô e d’I oi e 9
2.5 Tunisia 11
3 Concluding ema ks 13
Re e ences 14
Figu es
Figu e 1: Expo s o he Uni ed S a es as pe cen o o al expo s 2
Figu e 2: Leso ho’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion 3
Figu e 3: Madagasca ’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion 5
Figu e 4: Sou h A ica’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion 8
Figu e 5: Cô e d’I oi e’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion 10
Figu e 6: Tunisia’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion 11
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
VI
P e ace
Since P esiden Donald T ump’s e u n o o ice, Uni ed S a es (US) ade policy has unde gone
a se ies o signi ican changes, wi h u he a - eaching shi s emaining unce ain in bo h he
sho and long e m. While he US-China ade wa and i s esul ing a angemen s du ing his
i s e m al eady clashed wi h Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO) ules, he cu en adminis a ion
is now going u he by ac i ely unde mining he mul ila e al ading sys em. Mos no ably, i has
h ea ened o impose so-called “ ecip ocal a i s” on ading pa ne s.
These p oposed a i s ma k a sha p depa u e om he WTO’s co e p inciples o ecip oci y and
non-disc imina ion, signalling a b oade US pi o owa ds a powe -based app oach o ade
nego ia ions. This shi is e iden in he inc eased p essu e placed on ading pa ne s o en e
bila e al nego ia ions, coupled wi h he e a ic na u e o US a i plans in bo h con en and
imeline. Wha looms ahead is a po en ial pa chwo k o inconsis en and unp edic able ade
ules.
Ye he ac ual imposi ion o a i s is only pa o he s o y. Economic esea ch has long
emphasised he de imen al e ec s o policy unce ain y on ade pe o mance. Wi h T ump’s
open emb ace o p o ec ionism, his unce ain y has mo ed om he ma gins o he cen e –
cas ing a long shadow o e global ade.
An icipa ing he po en ial impac o p oposed o enac ed US ade measu es ex-an e is di icul ,
as hei scale and na u e exceeds mos his o ical p eceden s. T adi ional ade models may hus
p o e inadequa e in cap u ing he complex and dynamic e ec s o hese shi s in he cu en
geopoli ical and economic landscape. Mo eo e , he shi owa ds p o ec ionis and
disc imina o y policies is likely o gene a e unp edic able e ec s o bo h o e all ade pa e ns
and speci ic global alue chains (GVCs), wi h highly une en impac s ac oss coun ies.
Among he mos ulne able o hese changes a e low- and middle-income coun ies (LMICs),
which ypically expo aw ma e ials, appa el and o he low-cos goods o he US while impo ing
ela i ely ew high- alue Ame ican p oduc s. These s uc u al asymme ies lea e LMICs
pa icula ly exposed o bo h di ec a i hikes and b oade dis up ions in global ade pa e ns.
Agains his backg ound, his pape is pa o a se ies o discussion pape s ha explo es
s uc u al ade linkages be ween selec ed LMICs and he US, d awing on ecen ade da a
h ough desc ip i e analysis. The se ies iden i ies bo h di ec and indi ec ade ulne abili ies,
while also highligh ing po en ial oppo uni ies a ising om he ongoing shi in US ade s a egy.
These insigh s aim o suppo policymake s in LMICs and hei in e na ional pa ne s in c a ing
in o med, p o-ac i e esponses o an inc easingly unce ain ade en i onmen .
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
VII
Abb e ia ions
A CFTA A ican Con inen al F ee T ade A ea
AGOA A ican G ow h and Oppo uni y Ac
BACI Base pou l’Analyse du Comme ce In e na ional
DCFTA Deep and Comp ehensi e F ee T ade A ea
EPA Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen
EBA E e y hing bu A ms
EU Eu opean Union
EU-ESA iEPA In e im Economic Pa ne ship Ag eemen wi h he coun ies o Eas e n and
Sou he n A ica
FDI Fo eign di ec in es men
GSP Gene alised Sys em o P e e ences
GVCs Global alue chains
GDP G oss domes ic p oduc
LMICs Low- and middle-income coun ies
MFN Mos Fa ou ed Na ion
REX Regis e ed Expo e
SADC Sou he n A ican De elopmen Communi y
UN Uni ed Na ions
US Uni ed S a es
WTO Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
7
Fu he isks a ise om dynamic de elopmen s in global ade. Coun ies such as Vie nam and
Bangladesh a e pu suing comp ehensi e ee ade ag eemen s wi h he US, which could
unde mine he p ice compe i i eness o Madagasca ’s appa el expo s. These de elopmen s
pose pa icula ly se e e isks o women, who make up app oxima ely 80 pe cen o he sec o ’s
wo k o ce (ILO, 2025).
Di e si ying expo ma ke s is hus s a egically impo an o Madagasca , bu emains
challenging in p ac ice. The A ican ma ke is no a majo des ina ion o many o he coun y’s
ag icul u al and appa el expo s. Non- a i ade ba ie s such as high anspo a ion cos s,
inadequa e in as uc u e, and egula o y opaci y u he limi egional ade po en ial
(Tand ayen-Ragoobu e al., 2022; Yang & Gup a, 2007).
The EU o e s du y- and quo a- ee access o all goods h ough he in e im Economic
Pa ne ship Ag eemen wi h he coun ies o Eas e n and Sou he n A ica (EU-ESA iEPA), as
well as he E e y hing bu A ms (EBA) ini ia i e. While he combined usage o bo h p e e ence
schemes has consis en ly been high, he use o EBA ade p e e ences ose o 50 pe cen in
2023, acili a ed by he in oduc ion o simpli ied p ocedu es unde he Regis e ed Expo e
(REX) sys em (Eu opean Commission, 2025a). A key ac o behind his inc ease is he imp o ed
ules o o igin o appa el, which ha e made i easie o Madagasca o access he Eu opean
ma ke and ha e s eng hened he compe i i eness o i s appa el p oduc s.
Gi en he high p e e ence usage al eady, he EU p esen s only a limi ed addi ional oppo uni y
o u he os e Madagasca ’s expo s. This is pa icula ly ue in he appa el sec o , whe e
compe i ion is in ense due o coun ies such as Bangladesh, Vie nam and Pakis an. These
compe i o s also bene i om special a i ea men unde he EU’s a i p e e ence schemes
o bila e al ade ag eemen s and o en enjoy g ea e economies o scale and mo e e icien
logis ics sys ems.
Asian ma ke s emain la gely inaccessible o Madagasca ’s appa el, as mos coun ies in he
egion ha e hei own p oduc ion capaci ies and limi ed demand o A ican appa el p oduc s. In
con as , some niche oppo uni ies exis in he ag icul u al sec o ( o example, anilla expo s
o Japan and China), bu hese ma ke s a e limi ed in olume.
2.3 Sou h A ica
The US is Sou h A ica’s second mos signi ican ading pa ne , accoun ing o app oxima ely
7.5 pe cen o he coun y’s o al expo s (see Figu e 4). China is by a he la ges single coun y
expo des ina ion, ollowed by Ge many, India, he Uni ed Kingdom and Japan, each wi h
sligh ly smalle sha es han he US. Sou h A ica also se es as he leading comme cial hub in
Sou he n A ica, expo ing subs an ially o ellow membe s o he SADC. Expo s cons i u e
abou 30 pe cen o Sou h A ica’s GDP, wi h expo s o he US ep esen ing a ound 2.5 pe
cen o GDP. While no insigni ican , his alls sho o sugges ing s ong economic dependence.
While Sou h A ica main ains a di e si ied ange o expo des ina ions, he composi ion o i s
expo s also a ies conside ably ac oss ading pa ne s. Roughly hal o Sou h A ica’s expo s
o he US consis o o es, s ones, and mine als. The coun y’s op indi idual expo s o he US
a e jewelle y, gems ones and p ecious me als, which oge he accoun o abou 3.5 pe cen o
Sou h A ica’s o al expo s. This p oduc g oup shows a high deg ee o ma ke concen a ion,
wi h app oxima ely 11 pe cen o hese expo s des ined o he US ma ke . No ably, howe e ,
his eliance is ecip ocal: Sou h A ica supplies a ound 6 pe cen o o al US impo s in his
ca ego y. The US impo dependency is e en mo e s iking in he case o o es (slag and ash),
whe e Sou h A ica p o ides nea ly 27 pe cen o US impo s – despi e o es expo s o he US
making up jus 0.4 pe cen o Sou h A ica’s o al expo s.
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
8
Figu e 4: Sou h A ica’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion
Sou ce: Au ho s. C ea ed wi h Da aw appe , based on da a om Gaulie and Zignago (2010).
Beyond hese ca ego ies, o he no able Sou h A ican expo s o he US include ehicles and
me als (pa icula ly i on and s eel) wi h each accoun ing o app oxima ely 0.5 pe cen o 0.6
pe cen o Sou h A ica’s o al expo s. In agg ega e, hese expo s ep esen only abou 0.15
pe cen o 0.2 pe cen o he coun y’s GDP, ende ing hem ela i ely insigni ican in he
b oade economic con ex .
In con as , China, Japan and he Uni ed Kingdom p ima ily impo aw ma e ials om Sou h
A ica. Expo s o neighbou ing SADC coun ies, howe e , a e mo e di e si ied, encompassing
no only ag icul u al p oduc s, bu also chemicals, ehicles and machine y. This e lec s Sou h
A ica’s ole as a egional pla o m o indus ial p oduc ion.
Manu ac u ing gene ally plays a cen al ole in Sou h A ica’s economic s a egy and labou
ma ke . Wi hin his sec o , he au omo i e indus y is pa icula ly signi ican , di ec ly employing
a ound 110,000 people and ep esen ing app oxima ely 4.3 pe cen o he coun y’s GDP
(Sou h A ican Go e nmen , 2024). No ably, he indus y is deeply in eg a ed in o GVCs,
unde sco ing i s impo ance beyond na ional bo de s.
The e is, howe e , a no able dis inc ion be ween Sou h A ica and o he A ican coun ies
in ol ed in au omo i e alue chains. While Mo occo and Tunisia p ima ily ocus on supplying
componen s and pa s (see Sec ion 2.5), Sou h A ica is o ien ed mo e owa ds inal assembly
and ull-scale ehicle p oduc ion. The coun y has an es ablished au omo i e sec o wi h la ge
assembly plan s ope a ed by in e na ional manu ac u e s such as BMW, Me cedes-Benz,
Volkswagen, Toyo a, Fo d and Nissan.
While no he mos signi ican expo indus y o he US in absolu e e ms, Sou h A ica’s
au omo i e expo s o he US ha e no ably bene i ed om du y- and quo a- ee access unde
AGOA, which now has an unce ain u u e. Cu en ly, a ound 8 pe cen o Sou h A ica’s o al
ehicle expo s a e des ined o he US ma ke . A key d i e o his ade is BMW, whose models
a e posi ioned in he p emium segmen .
While Sou h A ica’s BMW plan compe es o some ex en wi h i s US coun e pa , a poli ically
mo i a ed shi in p oduc ion o he US canno be uled ou . Howe e , om a business
pe spec i e, he Sou h A ican acili y does no appea o ace an immedia e h ea , as scaling
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
9
up p oduc ion in he US would no be achie able quickly. Mo eo e , unlike componen supply,
inal ehicle assembly is di icul o eloca e quickly, as i depends on a long-es ablished base
o echnical expe ise and skilled labou . In he sho e m a leas , his eliance may ou weigh
he loss o he cos ad an age om lowe labou cos s ollowing he expi y o AGOA.
Al hough he po en ial expi y o AGOA poses a signi ican isk o Sou h A ica’s ehicle expo s
o he US, Sou h A ica’s expo business o he US may ace an e en g ea e challenge om
he al eady imposed 50 pe cen a i s on s eel and aluminium (The Whi e House, 2025b). While
bo h sec o s ha e his o ically been subjec o global a i exposu e, including om bo h he US
and Sou h A ica, hey in ol e ela i ely homogeneous goods ha a e easily subs i u able. This
makes i easible o he US o eplace Sou h A ican impo s wi h domes ic p oduc ion o
al e na i e in e na ional supplie s.
While he absolu e expo alues emain wi hin he mode a e ange, a mo e p essing conce n is
Sou h A ica’s high expo concen a ion o he US in hese sec o s. App oxima ely 10 pe cen
o i s s eel expo s and 22 pe cen o i s aluminium expo s a e di ec ed o he Ame ican ma ke .
In con as , he US main ains a highly di e si ied sou cing base o bo h p oduc s, educing i s
dependency on any single ade pa ne .
In esponse o hese ade policy dis up ions, Sou h A ica could pu sue se e al s a egic
op ions. In he sho e m, one possible le e is o highligh US dependence on Sou h A ican
impo s o jewelle y, gems and p ecious me als, and in pa icula o es. All o hese sec o s a e
less easily subs i u able supply sou ces and ha e a highe ma ke concen a ion. O e he
longe e m, Sou h A ica would bene i om di e si ying i s expo po olio o he US.
In addi ion, he de elopmen o he ba e y alue chain o e s impo an oppo uni ies o bo h
di e si y Sou h A ica’s au omo i e p oduc ion po olio and expand i s expo ma ke s. Al hough
he coun y does no ye manu ac u e EV ba e y cells domes ically, i is ac i ely de eloping
capabili ies in elec ic ehicle ba e y componen s and assembly (The Wo ld Bank, 2023).
2.4 Cô e d’I oi e
While he US is no Cô e d’I oi e’s main expo des ina ion, i none heless ep esen s an
impo an ma ke o ce ain key p oduc s, pa icula ly cocoa beans. Only a ound 7 pe cen o
he coun y’s expo s go di ec ly o he US (see Figu e 5). Roughly 40 pe cen a e des ined o
Eu ope, abou 20 pe cen o Asia, and a ound one qua e o o he Wes A ican coun ies.
Cocoa is Cô e d’I oi e’s mos impo an expo good, accoun ing o a ound 75 o 80 pe cen o
he coun y’s global expo s. Abou 15 pe cen o hese cocoa expo s go o he US, ep esen ing
o e 5 pe cen o o al expo s and a ound 1.3 pe cen o GDP. Cô e d’I oi e is also by a he
mos impo an supplie o cocoa beans o he US, accoun ing o oughly 50 pe cen o o al
US impo s. O e all, nea ly hal o he coun y’s wo k o ce is employed in ag icul u e, wi h o e
1 million people wo king in he cocoa alue chain (In e na ional Cocoa Ini ia i e, 2019).
Rubbe and ubbe -based p oduc s a e Cô e d’I oi e’s second mos impo an expo good.
Expo s o na u al ubbe o he US accoun o a ound 0.85 pe cen o o al expo s and
app oxima ely 0.2 pe cen o GDP. Cô e d’I oi e is an impo an supplie o aw ma e ials o
global i e p oduc ion (including B idges one, Michelin and Con inen al). Globally, Cô e d’I oi e
is he hi d-la ges expo e o na u al ubbe . The go e nmen aims o e ain a g ea e sha e o
alue added domes ically in he medium e m (“upg ading”), such as h ough inc eased local
p ocessing (Gou e nemen de la République de Cô e d’I oi e [Go e nmen o he Republic o
Cô e d'I oi e], 2019). So a , howe e , a la ge po ion o ubbe – a ound 30 pe cen – is
expo ed o China.
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
10
Figu e 5: Cô e d’I oi e’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion
Sou ce: Au ho s. C ea ed wi h Da aw appe , based on da a om Gaulie and Zignago (2010).
Al hough expo s o he US accoun o only a small sha e o Cô e d’I oi e’s o al expo s,
po en ial p o ec ionis ade policy can in oduce a signi ican bu den, especially on cocoa ade.
While he US has long applied MFN a i s on inished p oduc s such as chocola e and i es,
Cô e d’I oi e’s wo mos impo an expo goods (cocoa and ubbe ) ha e so a been exemp ed
(The Wo ld Bank, 2025). As a esul , AGOA has played only a limi ed ole o he coun y.
Due o i s s ong ocus on ag icul u al commodi ies and aw ma e ials, Cô e d’I oi e is highly
ulne able o ola ile p ices and clima e- ela ed isks. Cocoa a me s a e al eady unde p essu e
due o clima e- ela ed c op ailu es in ecen yea s (IMF, 2024). Wi h women making 70 pe cen
o he cocoa wo k o ce, he de elopmen o his sec o also holds conside able gende policy
ele ance (UN Women [Uni ed Na ions En i y o Gende Equali y and he Empowe men o
Women], 2017). O he impo an expo p oduc s include gold (p ima ily expo ed o
Swi ze land), oil and cashew nu s. Howe e , hese goods a e a ely expo ed o he US ma ke .
None heless, Cô e d’I oi e’s eliance on hese sec o s exposes i o signi ican isks s emming
om p ice luc ua ions and he impac s o clima e change.
Cô e d’I oi e is also in eg a ed in o in e na ional alue chains ( ia Eu ope and Asia) ha depend
on access o he US ma ke . Fo example, Eu opean chocola e manu ac u e s p ocess I o ian
cocoa and expo he inished p oduc s o he US. Simila indi ec linkages exis in he ubbe
sec o : Eu opean and Asian i e p oduce s use I o ian na u al ubbe in hei manu ac u ing
p ocesses and sell he inal p oduc s o he US ma ke . The e o e, as expo s o bo h he EU
and China consis mainly o in e media e goods, he e is a signi ican indi ec isk ha inal goods
inco po a ing I o ian inpu s could be subjec o US a i s.
The po en ial o edi ec expo s o al e na i e ma ke s is limi ed. Cô e d’I oi e al eady enjoys
du y- and quo a- ee access o he EU unde he EBA ini ia i e and, since 2019, h ough he
EPA, which is pa icula ly ele an o ce ain cocoa a i lines. Some addi ional expo po en ial
may exis o ubbe expo s o China, whe e he cu en 20 pe cen a i on echnically speci ied
na u al ubbe could be lowe ed o ze o as pa o China’s announced a i educ ions o A ican
coun ies.
Howe e , cocoa and ubbe a e no p oduced in he US and a e he e o e no easily subs i-
u able. As a esul , he impac on Cô e d’I oi e depends hea ily on how ade policies a ec i s
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
11
compe i i eness ela i e o key expo e s. In he ubbe sec o , Cô e d’I oi e compe es mainly
wi h Indonesia, Thailand, Libe ia, Ghana, Malaysia and Vie nam, and in cocoa wi h Ghana,
Ecuado and he Dominican Republic. In he ecen “ ecip ocal” a i announcemen s, Cô e
d’I oi e was posi ioned mid- ange, wi h a p oposed a i o 21 pe cen .
2.5 Tunisia
Compa ed o many o he A ican coun ies, Tunisia’s economy is no ably less elian on o eign
ade and is s ongly shaped by he se ices sec o . Se ices accoun o o e 60 pe cen o
GDP, wi h ou ism playing a pa icula ly cen al ole. This s uc u e lends Tunisia a deg ee o
esilience agains global ade policy dis up ions and is also e lec ed in he coun y’s ex e nal
balances: While Tunisia uns a cu en accoun de ici , i main ains a su plus in i s se ices ade.
The coun y’s p ima y goods expo ma ke s a e F ance, I aly and Ge many, which oge he
accoun o mo e han hal o Tunisia’s expo s (see Figu e 6).
Figu e 6: Tunisia’s expo sha es o goods by des ina ion
Sou ce: Au ho s. C ea ed wi h Da aw appe , based on da a om Gaulie and Zignago (2010).
Tunisia’s en mos signi ican expo goods o he US accoun o jus o e 3 pe cen o he
coun y’s o al expo s. Among hese, pa icula ly no ewo hy a e animal o ege able a s and
oils (especially oli e oil), comp omising a ound 0.95 pe cen o o al expo s. The alue o hese
expo s o he US ep esen s app oxima ely 0.4 pe cen o Tunisia’s GDP.
Mo e impo an han he absolu e igu es, howe e , is he high ma ke concen a ion o ce ain
p oduc ca ego ies in he US ma ke . Roughly 24 pe cen o Tunisia’s o al expo s o ege able
a s and oils a e des ined o he US. This concen a ion is e en mo e s iking in he case o
e ilise s, nea ly 36 pe cen o which a e expo ed o he US. As a esul , hese sec o s a e
pa icula ly ulne able o shi s in US ade policy.
The e ilise sec o is u he exposed due o he in ense compe i ion in he US ma ke . In 2023,
Tunisia supplied abou 8 pe cen o US e ilise impo s. O he majo supplie s include Mo occo
(14 pe cen ), Saudi A abia (22.5 pe cen ), and coun ies such as Russia, Is ael, Aus alia,
Canada and Mexico, each wi h ma ke sha es be ween 6 pe cen and 8 pe cen . Announced
“ ecip ocal” a i s o selec i e bila e al ade ag eemen s wi h he US could signi ican ly eshape
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
12
compe i i e dynamics by in oducing new p e e ence ma gins. This isk is ampli ied by he ac
ha Tunisia p ima ily expo s s anda dised, phospha e-based e ilise s, which a e mo e
exposed o p ice compe i ion han mo e specialised p oduc s.
A he same ime, he US ma ke also exhibi s a deg ee o dependence on impo s om Tunisia.
A ound 7 pe cen o US impo s o ege able a s and oils o igina e om Tunisia, as do
app oxima ely 5.5 pe cen o e ilise impo s and 9 pe cen o ui s and nu s, including ci us
and melon peels. While ce ain subca ego ies such as ci us ui s end o be ela i ely
homogeneous, he b oade ca ego y o ui s and nu s encompasses a di e se ange o p oduc s
cha ac e ised by na u al a iabili y and dis inc consume p e e ences. This di e si y may
con ibu e o a deg ee o s abili y and esilience in Tunisia’s expo ela ionship wi h he US.
Ano he laye o isk s ems om Tunisia’s in eg a ion in o GVCs. Al hough he coun y is no a
leading global supplie in he au omo i e sec o , i plays a i al ole in he Eu opean supply
ne wo k hanks o i s geog aphic p oximi y o he EU and compa a i ely low labou cos s. Tunisia
is pa icula ly impo an in he p oduc ion o wi ing ha nesses and elec onic componen s.
Roughly 16 pe cen o Tunisia’s o al expo s a e elec onic p oduc s, wi h Ge many, F ance
and I aly as he p ima y des ina ions. As a esul , Tunisia is indi ec ly exposed o ansa lan ic
ade ensions and an escala ion in ade dispu es be ween he EU and he US, especially in he
au omo i e sec o , could ha e signi ican knock-on e ec s.
While Tunisia’s economy is o e all ela i ely esilien o US ade policy shocks, hanks o limi ed
di ec ade exposu e and a s ong se ices sec o , de- isking op ions o i s e ilise and
ag icul u al expo s emain qui e limi ed. In he sho e m, oppo uni ies o edi ec Tunisia’s
e ilise expo s o al e na i e ma ke s appea cons ained. In 2023, I aly (15 pe cen ), Tu key
(9.7 pe cen ) and India (8.6 pe cen ) we e impo an des ina ions o Tunisian e ilise s.
Howe e , bo h I aly and Tu key sou ce impo s om a wide ange o coun ies, limi ing Tunisia’s
po en ial o u he inc ease ma ke sha e. Meanwhile, India’s impo ma ke is domina ed by
China, lea ing li le oom o Tunisia o expand he e.
Looking u he ahead, di e si ica ion o ma ke s o ag icul u al expo s mos di ec ly a ec ed
by US ade policy could ind new oppo uni ies wi hin he EU. Tunisia’s ade ela ions wi h he
EU a e cu en ly go e ned by he 1995 EU-Tunisia Associa ion Ag eemen , which came in o
o ce in 1998. While indus ial goods enjoy du y- ee access, ag icul u al, ood and ishe y
p oduc s emain only pa ially libe alised. Mo eo e , he EU con inues o apply a i s and quo as
(Eu opean Commission, 2025b), la gely o p o ec domes ic p oduce s in hese sec o s.
Tunisia could capi alise on he cu en poli ical momen um o e i e s alled nego ia ions o a
Deep and Comp ehensi e F ee T ade A ea (DCFTA) wi h he EU. Such an ag eemen could
secu e imp o ed a i ea men , opening new ma ke oppo uni ies o Tunisian ag icul u al
expo s. Fu he mo e, deepe coope a ion on EU no ms and egula o y s anda ds would
s eng hen his ade channel and align in e es s mo e closely. Indeed, e idence sugges s ha
emo ing p o ec ionis ba ie s especially in ag icul u e could lead o subs an ial ade g ow h
o Tunisia (e.g., Ca dozo e al., 2022), ein o cing he po en ial bene i s o ad ancing he DCFTA
alks.
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
13
3 Concluding ema ks
In his pape , we examined he s uc u al exposu e o i e A ican coun ies o he T ump
adminis a ion’s inc easingly p o ec ionis and unp edic able ade policies. While A ica is no
among he mos di ec ly a ec ed egions, se e al coun ies and sec o s ace non-negligible
isks, pa icula ly hose elian on AGOA-suppo ed appa el expo s o key ag icul u al
commodi ies. Fo hese economies, he combina ion o a i h ea s, unce ain y o e
p e e en ial egimes, and b oade shi s in GVCs can esul in signi ican economic losses, bo h
immedia e and dynamic. Sho - e m op ions o edi ec ing hei expo s emain limi ed. Hence,
his pe iod o heigh ened ade policy unce ain y unde sco es he need o mo e esilien and
di e si ied ade s uc u es in A ica.
Looking ahead, A ica’s long- e m economic p ospec s lie in he s eng hening o in a-A ican
ade, indus ial upg ading, and di e si ica ion beyond aw ma e ials. Regional ini ia i es such
as he A CFTA o e pla o ms o expand ma ke s, deepen alue addi ion and educe ex e nal
ulne abili y. A he same ime, a ge ed in es men s in in as uc u e, ins i u ions and egional
p oduc ion ne wo ks will be essen ial.
Ex e nal pa ne s may also ha e a ole o play. As compe i ion o s a egic esou ces needed
o high- ech indus ies and he g een ansi ion in ensi ies, he con inen ’s impo ance is ising
on he global s age. Bo h China and he EU ha e signalled s onge engagemen , o e ing
ma ke access and s a egic pa ne ships, especially in ene gy and c i ical mine als. Whe he
hese ini ia i es deli e meaning ul, mu ually bene icial ou comes emains o be seen.
Ul ima ely, while he cu en momen poses clea isks, i also p esen s an oppo uni y o A ican
coun ies o eassess hei ade dependencies and ad ance a mo e sel -de e mined
de elopmen pa h. The key o na iga ing his unce ain landscape lies no only in ex e nal deals,
bu in A ica’s own s a egic choices.
IDOS Discussion Pape 25/2025
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