Knabe, And eas
Book Re iew — Published Ve sion
[Rezension] Ca ol G aham: he powe o hope, 200 pages.
P ince on Uni e si y P ess, 2023. $ 30.00
Jou nal o Economics
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Knabe, And eas (2024) : [Rezension] Ca ol G aham: he powe o hope, 200
pages. P ince on Uni e si y P ess, 2023. $ 30.00, Jou nal o Economics, ISSN 1617-7134, Sp inge
Vienna, Vienna, Vol. 143, Iss. 3, pp. 307-310,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s00712-024-00884-9
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/315060
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BOOKREVIEW
Jou nal o Economics (2024) 143:307–310
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s00712-024-00884-9
O e he pas decades, wo signi ican de elopmen s, sugges ing ha Wes e n socie -
ies a e g appling wi h p o ound p essu es, ha e eme ged. Fi s , he so-called “dea hs
o despai ” - dea hs caused by suicide, d ug o e doses, and alcohol abuse - ha e
isen d ama ically in he Uni ed S a es. In 2023, mo e han 200,000 people died om
hese causes in he U.S., abou h ee imes as many as wen y yea s ea lie . While
such dea hs o despai we e ini ially pa icula ly p e alen among middle-aged Whi e
Ame icans wi hou a college deg ee, hey ha e also ecen ly sp ead o o he demo-
g aphic g oups. Second, igh -wing populism has gained s eng h in bo h he U.S.
and Eu ope, as e idenced by he elec ion o Donald T ump in 2016 and he ise o
populis pa ies such as he A D in Ge many and he Rassemblemen Na ional in
F ance. These de elopmen s e lec a deep pe sonal discon en many people in hese
coun ies a e expe iencing.
O cou se, he e was no dea h o c ises in he las wo decades. The global inan-
cial c ises o 2007/2008, he Eu opean so e eign deb c isis a e 2010, he Co id
pandemic as well as high ene gy cos s and in la ion ollowing he Russian in asion
o Uk aine all posed o s ill pose economic challenges. Ye , economic ac o s canno
easily explain he a o emen ioned ad e se de elopmen s on hei own. The ac ual
economic si ua ion is objec i ely no as bad as widely pe cei ed. Unemploymen
a es in he U.S. and he EU emain on his o ically low le els, whils eal GDP pe
capi a is highe han e e in hese egions.
To unde s and he di e gence be ween indi idual well-being and economic p og-
ess, one has o look “beyond GDP.” Co espondingly, a new ield o esea ch has
eme ged ha aims a complemen ing economic indica o s wi h o he measu es o
well-being. In e disciplina y esea ch has shown ha measu es o subjec i e well-
being, such as li e sa is ac ion o emo ional expe iences, can be eliably measu ed
and con ain economically meaning ul in o ma ion. Subjec i e well-being is now eg-
Published online: 9 Sep embe 2024
© The Au ho (s) 2024
Ca ol G aham: he powe o hope, 200 pages. P ince on
Uni e si y P ess, 2023. $ 30.00
And easKnabe1
And eas Knabe
[email p o ec ed]
1 O o- on-Gue icke-Uni e si ä Magdebu g, Magdebu g, Ge many
1 3
A. Knabe
ula ly measu ed in many coun ies (inc easingly e en by o icial s a is ical agencies)
and communica ed o policymake s and he public.
Ca ol G aham is one o he leading schola s in his ield and a pionee o he eco-
nomics o well-being. She has made highly in luen ial con ibu ions o ques ions o
inequali y and social jus ice, ocusing no only on de eloped coun ies bu ex ending
he esea ch o de eloping coun ies as well. In ea lie wo ks, she has p o ided s ong
e idence ha social inequali ies no only mani es hemsel es wi hin di e ences in
ma e ial consump ion, bu ha ma e ial po e y is also accompanied by s ess, unce -
ain y, and lowe li e sa is ac ion. Po e y could esul in a icious cycle, as li ing
unde hese condi ions could lead o un a o able economic decisions pe pe ua ing
hese di e economic ci cums ances.
In he new book, The Powe o Hope, Ca ol G aham builds on his esea ch and
a gues o ce ully ha he scope o commonly used subjec i e well-being indica o s
should be ex ended by ano he c i ical dimension – hope. In he esea ch, she has
ound ha among a ious well-being ma ke s, hope is he one ha exhibi s he la ges
di e ences be ween di e en demog aphic g oups. In line wi h hei highe a ec ed-
ness by dea hs o despai , she inds ha poo Whi e Ame icans, in pa icula , exhibi
lowe deg ees o hope han o he g oups. Hopelessness could hus be an ea ly-wa n-
ing indica o o looming social p oblems. Since hope seems o be such an essen ial
p e equisi e o many impo an ou comes, G aham ad oca es o measu ing i ou-
inely and comp ehensi ely and o eo ien ing public policy by p io i izing socie y’s
well-being in addi ion o economic objec i es.
In he i s chap e s o he book, Ca ol G aham p o ides an easy- o- ead, comp e-
hensi e, and sys ema ic o e iew o exis ing esea ch on he biological, social, and
economic de e minan s o hope ulness. She s esses ha he e is a di e ence be ween
hope and op imism. In he de ini ion, “op imism is a gene al belie ha hings will
u n ou all igh ; hope is a con ic ion ha one can ac o make hings be e in some
way.” (p. 21) Con a y o naï e op imism, hope has u u e-o ien ed agen ic p ope -
ies. The combina ion o posi i e u u e expec a ions and a sense o agency c ea es
he link be ween hope and ad an ageous u u e economic decisions. Wi hou agency,
he e would be no eason o exe any e o in ying o imp o e one’s si ua ion.
Howe e , wi hou a gene ally posi i e ou look on he u u e, one migh also no wan
o exe e o o incu cos s oday. Op imism and agency a e he complemen a y
componen s ha o m hope and gene a e i s posi i e beha io al impac .
In Chaps. 3 and 4, Ca ol G aham p esen s wo o he ecen s udies in de ail. In
he i s s udy, she su eys adolescen s in Pe u. In a sho panel s udy (wi h wo ime
poin s, 2017 and ea ly 2020), she i s eco ds he pa icipan s’ aspi a ions conce ning
educa ion, occupa ion, and mobili y and hen obse es ac ual ou comes a he second
ime poin . E en hough hope is no measu ed di ec ly, G aham a gues ha aspi a-
ions cap u e he adolescen s’ hope o ambi ion o achie ing some hing posi i e. One
impo an inding o he s udy is ha , despi e he ac ha mos pa icipan s ha e pa -
en s wi h ela i ely li le educa ion and simple jobs, hei aspi a ions o highe le els
o educa ion and highe -s a us occupa ions (and he epo ed con idence o achie e
hem) a e qui e high. Some subg oup di e ences, howe e , do exis . Adolescen s
who a e pa icula ly poo , al eady ma ied, o al eady pa en s exp ess lowe educa-
ional aspi a ions. Fu he mo e, he e is a nega i e co ela ion be ween impa ience
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Ca ol G aham: he powe o hope, 200 pages. P ince on Uni e si y…
and educa ional, occupa ional, and mig a ion aspi a ions. On he in e se, he belie
ha ha d wo k will ge one ahead and hose a o emen ioned aspi a ions a e co ela ed
posi i ely. Ano he main inding is ha highe aspi a ions in he i s pe iod a e asso-
cia ed wi h be e ou comes (e.g., mo e educa ion and less engagemen in isky heal h
beha io such as smoking o ha ing unsa e sex) h ee yea s la e . G aham concludes
ha aspi a ions a e a c i ical le e o imp o e o e all well-being as well as long- e m
ou comes and p oposes in e en ions ha migh success ully aise aspi a ions and
hope, including he p o ision o in o ma ion abou he e u ns o educa ion.
The second s udy esembles he one conduc ed in Pe u bu su eys low-income
young adul s in he Uni ed S a es. A he ime o w i ing he book, he s udy was s ill
unning, so only a ew esponses could be analyzed. The e a e no iceable di e ences
be ween Black and Whi e adolescen s om simila ly disad an aged economic back-
g ounds. Blacks a e ound o be mo e hope ul, mo e likely o us o he s, and mo e
likely o ha e a pa en who suppo s hei educa ional aspi a ions. They also e alua e
hei li e ci cums ances mo e posi i ely and a e mo e op imis ic abou hei u u e
quali y o li e han Whi e esponden s. Whi es, on he o he hand, ha e a s onge
in e nal locus o con ol bu ecei e li le suppo om hei amilies, ha e a less
ac i e social li e, and exhibi low aspi a ions o e all. A key di e ence be ween he
wo g oups seems o be ha A ican Ame ican pa icipan s a e mo e likely o ha e a
men o who encou ages hei school e o s, which appea s o be essen ial o young
people’s educa ional success.
The wo s udies a e imp essi e accoun s o he ela ionship be ween posi i e pe -
spec i es on one’s u u e, social suppo , and subsequen pe sonal success in disad-
an aged popula ions. The indings a e ce ainly in line wi h G aham’s claim ha
hope can imp o e people’s li e ou comes. Ne e heless, hese s udies should be seen
mo e as a s a ing poin o u he esea ch han as conclusi e e idence. Fi s , he e
is he ob ious p oblem o causali y, which G aham he sel add esses openly. Some
adolescen s migh know hey ha e a g ea e chance o achie ing highe educa ion o
ge ing be e jobs (because o p e ious successes o hei ne wo k). They migh hen
epo highe aspi a ions and achie e hem la e . This is co ela ional. I is much less
clea ha c ea ing mo e hope, ce e is pa ibus, would also ha e such a s ong posi i e
impac .
Ano he p oblem is he ope a ionaliza ion o hope as an empi ical cons uc . G a-
ham s esses ha hope is mo e han jus naï e op imism and also equi es a sense
o agency. In he main s udy, howe e , hope is no di ec ly measu ed. Ins ead, he
su ey asks abou educa ional and occupa ional aspi a ions and a ious pe sonali y
ai s, among hem he belie ha ha d wo k will ge one ahead and a measu e o op i-
mism (un o una ely, he exac ques ions used in he ques ionnai e a e no epo ed
in he book). Co ela ion analyses indica e ha aspi a ions a e posi i ely associa ed
wi h he belie in ha d wo k, suppo ing he claim ha agency ma e s. Bu he e is no
co ela ion be ween aspi a ions and op imism. Does his imply ha a posi i e ou look
on he u u e does no ma e ? Wha does his mean o he ele ance o hope as a
cen al d i e o beha io ? A hi d c i ical aspec conce ns he di e en ial policy ele-
ance o op imism and agency as he wo componen s o hope. In some li e domains,
agency migh be mo e impo an han op imism. As he Pe u ian s udy sugges s,
ha seems o be he case o educa ional aspi a ions and la e p o essional success.
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A. Knabe
I is no explici ly discussed in he book, bu one migh suspec ha o o he a eas,
e.g., dea hs o despai o he ise o igh -wing populism, op imism could be mo e
impo an han agency. E en naï e op imism could p o ide a eason o wan ing o
s ay ali e o migh induce one o suppo poli ical pa ies ha wan o keep hings
as hey a e. Pessimism could educe he suppo o exis ing poli ical sys ems and,
when combined wi h eelings o agency, migh lead o adicaliza ion and ex emis
beha io . The empi ical analyses p esen ed in he book aise many ques ions abou
he p ecise ela ionship be ween agency, op imism, and hope as well as hei implica-
ions o beha io and well-being. The ac ha he book does no answe all o hem
does no educe i s alue. Qui e o he con a y, i is Ca ol G aham’s me i o poin a
b oade audience o he bene i s o analyzing he de e minan s and consequences o
hope and hopelessness and o highligh he necessi y o conduc ing mo e esea ch in
his a ea.
In he inal wo chap e s, G aham builds on he empi ical insigh s and ou lines
how o make indi iduals and communi ies mo e hope ul. She discusses e idence
ha hope ulness is no a pe sonali y ai ha necessa ily emains ixed h oughou
people’s li es. Ins ead, i can be in luenced by ac o s such as amily s abili y, edu-
ca ion, and oppo uni ies. To es o e hope whe e i has been los , i is impo an o
ees ablish indi iduals’ con idence, sel -e icacy, and us in o he s. G aham p esen s
e idence om a ious in e en ion s udies ha igh ing loneliness and encou aging
con ac be ween people can inc ease hei happiness and op imism. Olde people can
be suppo ed h ough oppo uni ies o olun ee , pa icipa e in he a s, o spend ime
in na u e. Men o s in he amily o communi y can help young people and encou age
hem o aspi e o highe goals. G aham also s ongly suppo s mo e moni o ing and
egula epo ing o he a ious ace s o well-being in o icial go e nmen s a is ics.
This could se e policymake s as an ea ly-wa ning indica o and inc ease he isibil-
i y o hese measu es among he gene al public.
Ca ol G aham has p oduced a hough ul and inspi ing book. I con ains impo an
insigh s and s imula ing ideas o esea che s and policymake s alike. The Powe
o Hope is a powe ul book ha gi es hope ha he p essing challenges o despai ,
dis us , and poli ical adicaliza ion can be o e come.
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