Smolnik, F anziska; Tadumadze, Gio gi
Resea ch Repo
Geo gia a a c oss oads: Democ a ic backsliding and
u ning away om p o-Wes e n cou se
SWP Commen , No. 27/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Smolnik, F anziska; Tadumadze, Gio gi (2025) : Geo gia a a c oss oads:
Democ a ic backsliding and u ning away om p o-Wes e n cou se, SWP Commen , No. 27/2025,
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C27
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27
JUNE 2025
In oduc ion
Geo gia a a C oss oads
Democ a ic Backsliding and Tu ning Away om P o-Wes e n Cou se
F anziska Smolnik and Gio gi Tadumadze
Geo gia is a a u ning poin due o democ a ic backsliding in domes ic policy and a
econ igu a ion o ex e nal ela ions in luenced by egional and global geopoli ical
u bulence. In add essing his challenge, he EU should: conside ca e ully whe he
using communica ion channels will p omo e Geo gia’s democ acy and u u e in Eu ope;
assess he implica ions o coope a ion o he b oade popula ion; and s eng hen
he esilience o Geo gian ci il socie y. P og ess in he accession p ocesses o o he EU
candida e coun ies could weaken EU-skep ical oices in Geo gia and help solidi y
public suppo o he coun y’s Eu opean aspi a ions.
In sp ing 2024, he Geo gian D eam (GD)
go e nmen , in powe since 2012, ein o-
duced and passed i s law on “T anspa ency
o Fo eign In luence”. And in Oc obe i
held con o e sial pa liamen a y elec ions.
Bo h e en s a ac ed c i icism a home
and ab oad, and a e symp oms, no causes,
o he poli ical c isis in Geo gia. Ye hey
ep esen key miles ones in Geo gia’s de el-
opmen , speci ically lagging he ela ion-
ship be ween Geo gian s a e and socie y,
he applica ion o au ho i a ian p ac ices,
and Tbilisi’s aliena ion om i s Eu opean
pa ne s. The la e has become pa icula ly
no able by GD’s decision in la e No embe
2024 o o mally suspend he EU accession
p ocess un il 2028. These e en s we e accom-
panied by public p o es . Demons a ions
agains he decision o hal EU in eg a ion
a e s ill ongoing. Domes ic poli ical de el-
opmen s in Tbilisi a e playing ou wi hin a
b oade uphea al in Eu opean secu i y and
he in e na ional o de . This has speci ic
epe cussions.
Realigning domes ic and
o eign policy: Measu es,
na a i es, symbols
GD’s conc e e measu es, a ge ed na a-
i es, and poli ical symbolism shed ligh
on i s poli ical cou se.
Measu es
The 2024 pa liamen a y elec ions accele a ed
Geo gia’s poli ical ealignmen and deep-
ened i s domes ic poli ical c isis. All ou
elec ed opposi ion pa ies p o es ed o e
he conduc o he elec ion. Th ee o hem
eques ed ha hei manda es be annulled,
wi h he ou h boyco ing pa liamen a y
wo k. As a esul , only GD membe s a e
SWP Commen 27
June 2025
2
ep esen ed in he newly cons i u ed pa -
liamen . In Feb ua y 2025, h ee depu ies
spli om he GD pa liamen a y g oup.
They now ope a e as he nominal oppo-
si ion, unde he label o he Eu opean
Socialis s pa y. The lawmake s o ye
ano he pa y, known as People’s Powe ,
ha e pe o med he same nominal mo e
al eady wice – ha ing i s spun o in
2022 as an o shoo o GD.
Mikheil Ka elash ili was swo n in as
p esiden in la e 2024, succeeding Salome
Zou abich ili, whose s anding as a coun e -
weigh o GD had g own in ecen yea s.
Ka elash ili’s inaugu a ion d ew c i icism
om opposi ion poli icians and majo seg-
men s o he independen ci il socie y. They
deem he new pa liamen illegi ima e – a
decisi e body in elec ing he p esiden ol-
lowing a cons i u ional e o m ha eplaced
he di ec popula o e wi h an elec o al
college. The induc ion o Ka elash ili, who
is no o ious o his EU-hos ile and an i-
libe al pos u e, appea s o ea i m GD’s
o eign policy ealignmen .
The e ha e been mul iple accusa ions
abou police o ice s and uniden i ied law
en o cemen agen s exe cising disp opo -
iona e o ce agains demons a o s du ing
he s ee p o es s. Hund eds o p o es e s,
including jou nalis s and ac i is s, ha e
been de ained. Pa liamen apidly passed a
succession o laws ha hinde legal p o es ,
b oadening he scope o punishable o ences,
inc easing ines o p o es - ela ed o ences,
and ex ending he du a ion o adminis a-
i e de en ion om 5 o 60 days. A dec ee
classi ying “highways o s a e and in e na-
ional impo ance” as s a egic in as uc-
u e u he es ic s he physical space o
legal p o es . C i ics o he cu en poli ical
leade ship iew his as an a emp o cu b
p o es and mobilisa ion.
Recen ly, he go e nmen has s epped up
i s e o s. Fo example, he Fo eign Agen s
Regis a ion Ac (FARA) came in o o ce on
31 May 2025. The new law ep esen s, as
GD says, a “di ec Geo gian ansla ion” o
he Ame ican FARA. Bu i is no less con o-
e sial han i s o e unne , he law on
“T anspa ency o Fo eign In luence”. The
uling eli e has also aken nume ous s eps
o igh en egula ion o he media. Inde-
penden obse e s belie e ha he ecen
ini ia i es u he sh ink he space o in-
dependen epo ing and ci il socie y ac i -
i y, an assessmen sha ed by in e na ional
human igh s o ganisa ions.
As well as up u ing ies wi h he EU,
domes ic poli ical de elopmen s in Geo gia
ha e se iously s ained ela ions wi h he
Pa liamen a y Assembly o he Council o
Eu ope (PACE). PACE has pu o ull ecog-
ni ion o he Geo gian delega ion, ci ing
democ a ic backsliding, human igh s io-
la ions du ing he p o es s, and conce ns
o e he conduc o he pa liamen a y elec-
ion. In esponse, he Geo gian delega ion
suspended i s pa icipa ion in PACE.
Na a i es
Since Russia’s in asion o Uk aine in Feb-
ua y 2022, GD has been dissemina ing he
na a i e ha he e exis s a “global wa
pa y”, seeking o d ag Geo gia in o a wa
wi h Russia and demanding ha Tbilisi
open a “second on ”. GD has claimed
c edi o mee ing his p essu e wi h a
policy o es ain , and hus o keeping
Geo gia ou o a wa wi h Russia.
The uling eli e has e ined i s na a i e
o e ime. Whe e i used o e e o a
“global wa pa y”, GD now inc easingly
speaks o a “deep s a e” – an omnip esen
(shadow) s a e wi hin a s a e, supposedly
exe ing global in luence. Whiche e e m
is used, i emains unclea which ac o s GD
is speci ically alluding o. Acco ding o GD,
he “deep s a e” ope a es e e ywhe e, and
is pa icula ly ac i e whe e GD aces ocal
c i icism – o example in S asbou g, a e
he Eu opean Pa liamen in Feb ua y 2025
passed a s ongly c i ical esolu ion denying
he legi imacy o he GD go e nmen .
The “global wa pa y” and “deep s a e”
a e majo na a i es in he uling GD’s Eu o-
scep icism. Al hough he pa y had al eady
posi ioned i sel inc easingly i mly agains
a libe al “Eu ope” and ins ead espoused a
“ ue” conse a i e e sion, i s decision o
suspend he EU accession p ocess aises
SWP Commen 27
June 2025
3
mo e undamen al ques ions abou he
coun y’s o eign policy o ien a ion.
Symbolism
Change is also appa en in he iconog aphy.
A e Mikheil Saakash ili became p esiden
in 2004, Geo gia’s Eu o-A lan ic o ien a ion
had a symbolic unde pinning: he uling
eli es used he EU lag ex ensi ely. I was
displayed nex o he Geo gian lag in key
go e nmen ins i u ions, including pa lia-
men . This did no e lec he eal s a e
o Geo gia’s Eu o-A lan ic in eg a ion. Al-
hough he lag also symbolised he Council
o Eu ope, o which Geo gia is a membe ,
i s use epi omised he poli ical ambi ion
o b ing Geo gia in o he EU, which was
sha ed among he uling eli e (including GD
o a long ime) and among la ge segmen s
o socie y.
The isual deco o Mikheil Ka elash-
ili’s inaugu a ion emblemises he shi .
The s age was illed wi h Geo gian lags,
whi e wi h i e ed c osses, wi h he EU’s
blue and yellow nowhe e o be seen. The
EU lag is s ill omnip esen in Tbilisi. Bu
now i is mo e likely o be seen in poli ical
g a i i o a p o es s, a he han in go -
e nmen buildings and o icial ce emonies.
This change in poli ical image y is pa o
GD’s poli ical communica ion. I unde -
sco es he na a i e ha Geo gia mus
easse i s na ional in e es s, so e eign y,
and iden i y.
The symbolic dimension also igu es in
GD’s o eign policy, whe e a ealignmen is
unde way. The uling eli e has engaged in
pe o ma i e ac s, such as highly publicised
ips o he Uni ed A ab Emi a es (UAE),
I an, Cen al Asia, and China. Ye , li le is
known abou he coope a ion ag eemen ,
wo h six billion US dolla s, ha P ime
Minis e Kobakhidze b ough back om
his ip o he UAE in la e Janua y 2025.
The bila e al ela ionship wi h China s ill
appea s o all sho o GD’s o icial asse -
ions, despi e conside able p og ess in
ecen yea s. Geo gia signed a s a egic pa -
ne ship ag eemen wi h China in 2023.
Ra he han an Ame ican conso ium, as
ini ially o eseen, a Chinese-Singapo ean
g oup will now build he deep-sea po in
Anaklia. And economic, cul u al, and edu-
ca ional ies a e expanding.
Tbilisi is u he no malising economic
and ade ela ions wi h Russia – a eas
whe e he EU has allen sho o expec a-
ions. This de elopmen poin s o a o eign
policy eo ien a ion. Fo many yea s, Tbilisi
aspi ed o in eg a e wi h Eu ope – and
e en ually o join he EU. Now, new en an-
glemen s in o eign policy a e o e w i ing
his long-s anding aspi a ion, ende ing
Geo gia’s u u e, in he wo ds o Geo gian
commen a o s, “Eu asian” o a leas
“mul i- ec o ”.
Geopoli ical esonance
The de elopmen s in Geo gia a e un olding
a a ime o geopoli ical dis up ion and
apid global change: Russia launches a ull-
scale in asion o Uk aine, unde mining
he Eu opean secu i y o de and s aining
global secu i y, au oc acy p oli e a es
wo ldwide, and US ( o eign) policy unde
P esiden T ump is changing cou se. These
ans o ma ions ind angible esonance
in GD’s ac ions and he o ic.
So a GD appea s o ha e ailed o
ees ablish he once close pa ne ship i
enjoyed wi h Washing on, despi e ha ing
announced an immedia e ese o bila e al
ela ions wi h he new T ump adminis a-
ion. Thei sha ed igh -wing conse a i e
posi ions allegedly o e ed a basis, he ul-
ing pa y had p opaga ed. Fu he mo e, GD
po ayed T ump’s elec ion pledge o end
Russia’s wa agains Uk aine wi hin 24 hou s
as aligning wi h i s c eed o p e en ing a
“second on ”. Al hough a uly new s a
is s ill up in he ai – and has no become
mo e angible a e he adop ion o he
c i ical MEGOBARI Ac by he US House o
Rep esen a i es – GD is s ill seeking o
capi alise on he indi ec alignmen o posi-
ions wi h Washing on.
Fo example, T ump’s adminis a ion has
se e ely cu ailed he wo k o USAID. Senio
Whi e House s a asse ed ha USAID was
SWP Commen 27
June 2025
4
a “c iminal o ganiza ion”, a “ on o gani-
za ion” buil o dissemina e adical le -
wing ideas ab oad. Funding o Voice o
Ame ica and Radio F ee Eu ope/Radio
Libe y has also been slashed.
These ac ions i well wi h GD’s na a i e
ha Geo gia mus p o ec i sel om o -
eign in luence and “libe al ideologies”. And
i s alk o a “deep s a e” also aligns wi h he
he o ic o he US Republicans and hei
suppo e s. The shi in US policy expedi es
GD’s domes ic poli ical cou se and could
e en lea e he Geo gian leade ship eeling
ha i s iews on he egional o de and
global powe ela ions had been ea i med.
GD does no appea o ega d he EU as
a cen al pole in his new con igu a ion; a
leas no as a libe al-no ma i e powe wi h
su icien appeal and in luence. This is
because, om GD’s pe spec i e, he EU’s
secu i y is challenged and Eu o-A lan ic
solida i y is c umbling. Geo gian poli ical
pundi s poin his ou . Mo eo e , o esume
accession alks wi h he EU Tbilisi mus
e oke i s ecen legisla i e changes and
implemen comp ehensi e e o ms. This
would essen ially mean a clea e e sal
om he cu en cou se. The e is cu en ly
li le sign o Geo gia’s leade ship being
willing o comple e such a u n, no does
he geopoli ical landscape p o ide incen-
i es o GD o do so.
Public sen imen
How does Geo gian socie y iew hese de-
elopmen s? How s ong is popula suppo
o GD? And o he poli ical opposi ion?
And how s ong is public app o al o he
p o es s? I is di icul o gi e a de ini e
answe o hese ques ions, gi en he dea h
o ecen opinion polls. In he pas , c edible
su eys we e conduc ed by he Na ional
Democ a ic Ins i u e and he In e na ional
Republican Ins i u e, bo h o which a e US-
unded. They commissioned ep esen a i e
su eys and published indings on a i udes
owa ds pa ies and leade s, o eign policy
p e e ences, and poli ical iews in gene al.
Regula polling made i possible o ollow
ends o e ime. In he mean ime, how-
e e , hese su eys ha e also allen ic im
o he cu s in US de elopmen unding.
I is s iking how li le he poli ical
opposi ion has been isible o e he pas
ew mon hs. The pa liamen a y elec ions
al eady le an imp ession ha he oppo-
si ion pa ies we e s a egically ill-p epa ed
o he ensuing scena ios. Al hough hey
did seek common g ound be o e and a e
he elec ion, p ima ily o gain le e age
h ough uni y in hei opposi ion o GD,
hei e o s appea o ha e been la gely
unsuccess ul. In ac , he opposi ion is en-
enching i s image as no o iously di ided
and agmen ed.
The Uni ed Na ional Mo emen (UNM) o
o me P esiden Saakash ili is no a choice
o many Geo gians ou side i s adi ional
o e base. I had, in he eyes o many, los
c edibili y o i s au ho i a ianism, espe-
cially du ing he inal phase o Saakash ili’s
p esidency in 2013. The o he pa ies, oo,
ha e ailed o ga he b oad public backing.
Salome Zou abich ili pushed o s a egic
cohesion, seeking o es ablish he sel as a
uni ying pole o he opposi ion. Howe e ,
she has la gely allen ou o sigh since she
depa ed om he p esiden ial palace. As a
consequence, he poli ical opposi ion lacks
c edible leade ship and s a egic o ien a ion.
Acco ding o he opinion poll conduc ed
by he Geo gian Ins i u e o Social S udies
and Analysis (ISSA) in Janua y 2025, almos
wo- hi ds o esponden s eel he coun y
is mo ing in he w ong di ec ion. Nea ly
78 pe cen blame GD o he poli ical c isis.
Pola isa ion is e iden in o he a eas, such
as whe he he go e nmen and he p esi-
den a e legi ima e. Al hough a majo i y
o esponden s suppo he p o es s, non-
go e nmen al o ganisa ions – which we e
p ominen in he an i-go e nmen p o es s
– achie e only a small ne posi i e a ing
(35.9 pe cen posi i e as agains 29.5 pe
cen nega i e). Howe e , as in he pas ,
socio-economic wo ies o e shadow o he
domes ic policy issues. The su ey iden i ies
high p ices (46.5 pe cen ) and unemploy-
men (42.1 pe cen ) as he mos p essing
p oblems by a wide ma gin.
SWP Commen 27
June 2025
5
Geo gian economis s hold a ai ly pessi-
mis ic ou look on u u e p ospec s, due o
he poli ical si ua ion and speci ically he
hal ed EU accession p ocess. A he same
ime, he business communi y has esponded
ese edly o he poli ical de elopmen s.
The s ikes ha accompanied he demon-
s a ions we e b ie and d ew only limi ed
u nou .
Ea lie su eys e ealed di e ences be-
ween u ban cen es (abo e all he capi al
Tbilisi) and u al a eas. Fo example,
acco ding o he Caucasus Ba ome e o
Ap il–May 2024, esponden s in Tbilisi
ega ded poli ical ins abili y as he mos im-
po an issue and exp essed g ea e dissa is-
ac ion wi h he coun y’s domes ic poli i-
cal di ec ion han hose in o he egions.
The e we e also di e ences be ween he
gene a ions, wi h GD enjoying less suppo
among he you h. These ac o s ha e likely
emained ele an .
Implica ions o he EU
De elopmen s in Geo gia aise p essing
ques ions o he EU, whose leade s need
o quickly come up wi h c edible answe s.
The Geo gian case spo ligh s he limi ed
poli ical impac o he EU’s ans o ma i e
app oach e en in i s own neighbou hood.
In 2021, he GD go e nmen ejec ed he
EU’s Mac o-Financial Assis ance, which was
condi ional on Tbilisi making p og ess on
e o ms. This demons a es ha he EU’s
le e age is weak i he pa ne lacks poli i-
cal will. In ecen mon hs, oo, B ussels’s
esponses o GD’s ajec o y ha e so a
ailed pe suade GD o e e cou se. These
ha e included eezing bila e al budge sup-
po , hal ing aid om he Eu opean Peace
Facili y, and suspending isa- ee a el o
Geo gian o icials and diploma s. Some
EU membe s a es ha e also imposed en y
bans on indi idual o icials and made cu s
o de elopmen coope a ion. The EU mem-
be s a es ha e been unable o ag ee on
mo e comp ehensi e s eps, such as EU-wide
sanc ions on indi iduals, which would ha e
equi ed unanimi y among all 27 membe s.
E en below he le el o ull EU-wide con-
sensus, cohe ence and clea s a egy ha e
o en been lacking.
Wha nex ?
The EU suspended high-le el con ac s in
summe 2024, in esponse o Geo gia’s
democ a ic backsliding. I emains open
whe he he EU will ecognise he GD
go e nmen as legi ima e. The Weima
T iangle o Be lin, Pa is, and Wa saw, o
example, has a oided doing so in i s s a e-
men s. By educing hei con ac o a mini-
mum, Wes e n pa ne s cons ain Geo gia’s
in e na ional leeway and ein o ce doub s
o e he conduc o he elec ion. Bu his
may also isk u he e oding he EU’s
al eady diminishing in luence.
The T ump adminis a ion appea s o
ha e a leas li ed Washing on’s “con ac
ban”. In sp ing 2025, he US ambassado in
Tbilisi me he GD o eign minis e and he
minis e o economy, who also se es as he
i s depu y p ime minis e . The di e ences
be ween B ussels and Washing on ha e also
become mo e appa en unde T ump.
Gi en his dynamic, he EU’s con inued
e usal o engage in di ec communica ion
and dialogue could push i u he o he
sidelines and do a disse ice o i s decla ed
aim o suppo ing Geo gian socie y’s aspi-
a ion o o ge close ies wi h he EU and
s eng hening democ acy in he coun y.
B ussels should he e o e conside ca e ully
when, how, and whe e i migh es o e
di ec poli ical and diploma ic channels in
o de o p omo e i s own in e es s and back
Geo gia’s democ acy and u u e in Eu ope.
Howe e , in o de o ensu e such commu-
nica ion, he EU should adop a clea posi-
ion and demons a e maximum uni y, p e-
en ing i s ins i u ions and membe s a es
om being pi ed agains each o he . In any
case, es o ing communica ion should in
no way he ald he comeback o “business as
usual”.
The EU’s objec i es s em om no ma i e
claims and geopoli ical in e es s. He e,
Geo gia poses a challenge o he EU: How o
balance hese objec i es h ough o esigh ed
SWP Commen 27
June 2025
6
policies ha a e bo h consis en and adap -
able?
Geo gian ci il socie y o ganisa ions iew
he EU as a pa ne wi h a no ma i e o ien-
a ion. They ad oca e o objec i es such
as ule o law, mino i y igh s, and media
eedom, which a e on he EU’s agenda and
in i s Associa ion Ag eemen wi h Geo gia.
Consequen ly, hey judge he EU acco ding
o i s no ma i e s anda ds and i s handling
o cu en de elopmen s in Geo gia.
B ussels has begun edi ec ing inancial
aid o iginally ea ma ked o he go e n-
men o bene i Geo gian ci il socie y o ga-
nisa ions ins ead. Ci il socie y and inde-
penden media a e unde hea y p essu e,
acing s a e es ic ions on hei ac i i ies
and loss o USAID unding. I he e o e
makes sense o he EU o s ep up i s inan-
cial suppo o ci il socie y o ill he gap.
The assis ance should in ol e minimal
bu eauc acy and espond o c i icisms o
pas p og ammes. Fo example, EU dono s
should a oid mis akes such as concen a -
ing ini ia i es in he capi al, imposing
bu eauc a ic bu dens on g ass oo s o gani-
sa ions and lowe -budge p ojec s, o o e -
looking he u gen needs o local communi-
ies. In he in e es s o p omo ing ci il soci-
e y esilience, measu es should s eng hen
independen sus ainabili y a he han os-
e ing dependency.
A he same ime, GD’s ecen legisla i e
ini ia i es sh ink he space o EU engage-
men . Eu opean dono s a e compelled o
con inually eassess hei oom o manoeu-
e and conside how o p ese e i . To his
end, a ge ed mobili y p og ammes could
help ci il socie y ac o s om Geo gia, he
EU, and o he Eas e n Pa ne ship coun ies
o exchange bes p ac ices and sha e lessons
lea ned om ope a ing unde simila poli i-
cal and legal amewo ks.
Coope a ion can also help p e en
aliena ion be ween he Geo gian socie y
and he EU. Decades o in ense exchange
ha e es ablished s ong ies and sha ed
alues wi h he Geo gian popula ion and
ci il socie y. Acco ding o he EU Neigh-
bou s Eas Su ey om Ma ch 2024, 60
pe cen o esponden s in Geo gia ha e a
posi i e image o he EU, and o e 80 pe
cen say hey us i . A numbe o Eu o-
pean coun ies, including Ge many, ha e
educed hei coope a ion – in pa icula
wi h go e nmen and s a e s uc u es – in
esponse o he poli ical de elopmen s. The
challenge is o s ee hese s eps, o exam-
ple in educa ion o de elopmen coope a-
ion, so ha hey in lic minimal ha m on
Geo gian socie y and i s ies wi h he EU.
The EU should make g ea e use o s a-
egic o esigh . This would enable Eu opean
leade s o be be e p epa ed o possible
u u e scena ios, o de elop speci ic ac ion
plans, and o os e in e nal consensus o
hei implemen a ion. Whe e unanimi y
among all 27 membe s a es canno be
achie ed, a maximally b oad coali ion should
o m be ween willing pa ne s. The bleake
u u e scena ios could include e en igh e
es ic ions on coope a ion wi h ci il soci-
e y and independen media o e en a ban
on opposi ion pa ies. GD ep esen a i es
ha e epea edly loa ed he possibili y o
such a ban since 2024. This h ea has been
conc e ised ecen ly, wi h GD se ing up a
pa liamen a y inqui y o in es iga e UNM’s
ac ions in go e nmen (2004–2012) and
subsequen ly in opposi ion.
Beyond he bila e al
Fo a long ime, Geo gia was he closes
pa ne o he EU – and o NATO – in he
Sou h Caucasus. The coun y emblemised a
s onghold o Eu ope’s egional ini ia i es
and was a egional ad oca e o close ies
wi h he EU. Poli ical de elopmen s wi hin
Geo gia and be ween B ussels and Tbilisi
no only a ec hei bila e al ela ionship,
bu also ha e a b oade impac on he EU’s
ole and u u e engagemen in he wide
egion.
We should also iew he Geo gian case
in ligh o Eu ope’s s abili y and u u e
secu i y o de . His o y has shown ha
Russia’s des abilising impe ialism is also
di ec ed a he Sou h Caucasus. I is in he
EU’s in e es o cu b his des abilising in lu-
ence, o a leas o help coun ies in he
egion o educe hei dependency on Rus-
SWP Commen 27
June 2025
7
sia. Mo eo e , o he ac o s ha do no sha e
he EU’s no ma i e p o ile a e gaining poli i-
cal weigh in he neighbou hood. Russia’s
in asion o Uk aine has changed anspo
and ansi ou es. This in u n has heigh -
ened he EU’s ocus on he Sou h Caucasus
and Geo gia in economic connec i i y. No -
ma i e issues (such as legal ce ain y), he e o-
genei y o playe s, and egional s abili y all
play a ole he e as well.
Wha ole can he EU play o Geo gia
and he egion? This will depend no only
on he ins umen s and measu es he EU
employs in he bila e al ela ionship, bu
also signi ican ly on how c edibly he EU
ac s in a apidly changing global o de and
how he egion pe cei es i s agency. This
is especially ue in an en i onmen whe e
a ious ac o s – o en no like-minded
wi h he EU – a e ying o expand hei
oo hold, and whe e Russia is seeking o
ex end i s hegemonic claims o he Sou h
Caucasus.
The EU’s a ac i eness and c edibili y
could also inc ease indi ec ly i i showcases
p og ess on in eg a ing o he membe ship
candida es. To his end, B ussels should
igo ously p ess on wi h hei accession
p ocesses. This could s ip away he a gu-
men a i e basis o GD’s EU-hos ile he o ic
and coun e i wi h a posi i e na a i e.
The EU mus he e o e keep an eye on bo h
he posi i e and nega i e epe cussions o
i s policies in di e en egions.
To posi ion i sel as a s ong and esolu e
pa ne and success ully con ey his image
in he egion, he EU needs o show g ea e
uni y, make c edible o e s, and adop con-
sis en and e ec i e measu es. Only hen
can he EU e ain i s ele ance as an ex e -
nal ac o – bo h o Geo gia and in i s own
neighbou hood.
D F anziska Smolnik is Senio Fellow in he Eas e n Eu ope and Eu asia Resea ch Di ision.
Gio gi Tadumadze is Resea ch Assis an in he same di ision.
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Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C27
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 26/2025)
