Ho nykewycz, Anna; Kapelle , Jakob; Webe , Jan Da id; Schü z, Be nha d; Cse jan,
Lukas
Wo king Pape
Ca bon neu ali y in he esiden ial sec o : A gene al
oolbox and he case o Ge many
i so wo king pape , No. 41
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Uni e si y o Duisbu g-Essen, Ins i u e o Socioeconomics (i so)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ho nykewycz, Anna; Kapelle , Jakob; Webe , Jan Da id; Schü z, Be nha d;
Cse jan, Lukas (2024) : Ca bon neu ali y in he esiden ial sec o : A gene al oolbox and he case o
Ge many, i so wo king pape , No. 41, Uni e si y o Duisbu g-Essen, Ins i u e o Socio-Economics
(i so), Duisbu g
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i so wo king pape
Anna Ho nykewycz
Jakob Kapelle
Jan Da id Webe
Be nha d Schü z
Lukas Cse jan
Ca bon Neu ali y in he
Residen ial Sec o :
A Gene al Toolbox and he
Case o Ge many
2024 no.41
CARBON NEUTRALITY IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: A
GENERAL TOOLBOX AND THE CASE OF GERMANY ∗
Anna Ho nykewycz†
Jakob Kapelle ‡
Jan Da id Webe §
Be nha d Schü z¶
Lukas Cse jan∥
Oc obe 29, 2024
ABSTRACT
This pape p esen s a gene al amewo k o es ima ing he eno a ion and in es men equi emen s associa ed
wi h a g een ans o ma ion o he esiden ial sec o ha e ec i ely educes he ne emissions o he esiden ial
sec o (close) o ze o. The amewo k akes ecological and dis ibu ional conside a ions in o accoun and aims o
p o ide conc e e ou comes sui able o in o m policy-making, while being as pa simonious as possible on he side
o da a equi emen s. All key s eps associa ed wi h his amewo k a e compiled in an openly accessible oolbox
ha can be adap ed o di e en coun y-speci ic con ex s. This pape akes he Ge man case as an example o
illus a e he main assump ions, da a equi emen s, and ou comes ha can be de i ed om his oolbox.
Keywo ds socio-ecological ans o ma ion, esiden ial sec o , ne ze o, jus ansi ion, sus ainable in as uc u e
∗
We hank Sophie Hieselmay , Lau a Po ak, Ul ike Röh , Immanuel S iess, Flo ian Wagne , and Ra ael Wildaue o hei inpu
and suppo in he cou se o his p ojec . Financial suppo om Deze na Zukun is g a e ully acknowledged. JK, BS, and JDW
also ecei ed inancial suppo om he Hans Böckle Founda ion unde g an numbe 2021-544-2. This pape uses da a om he
Eu osys em Household Finance and Consump ion Su ey.
†Ins i u e o Comp ehensi e Analysis o he Economy (ICAE), Johannes Keple Uni e si y Linz, anna.ho nyk[email p o ec ed]
‡
Ins i u e o Socio-Economics, Uni e si y Duisbu g-Essen and Ins i u e o Comp ehensi e Analysis o he Economy (ICAE),
Johannes Keple Uni e si y Linz, jakob[email p o ec ed]
§Ins i u e o Socio-Economics, Uni e si y Duisbu g-Essen, [email p o ec ed]
¶
The Vienna Ins i u e o In e na ional Economic S udies and Ins i u e o Socio-Economics, Uni e si y Duisbu g-Essen,
schue [email protected]
∥Ins i u e o Comp ehensi e Analysis o he Economy (ICAE), Johannes Keple Uni e si y Linz, [email p o ec ed]
WORKING PAPER
In oduc ion
A aining ca bon neu ali y in he esiden ial building sec o is essen ial o success ully ans o ming mode n economies
o ope a e wi hin he limi s o plane a y bounda ies. This o e all equi emen gi es ise o he mo e speci ic ask o
de ising p og ams ha acili a e such a ans o ma ion on domes ic le els. We p esen a gene al oolbox ha conside s
se e al key dimensions o in e es sui able o assess, e alua e, o design such domes ic p og ams. These dimensions
include (1) he echnological equi emen s o achie ing a success ul ans o ma ion, (2) he scale o e o equi ed o
implemen ing hese echnologies, (3) he in es men cos s associa ed wi h such an e o , (4) he economic impac o
hese in es men s, and (5) he dis ibu ion o he in es men cos s be ween he p i a e and he public sec o as well
as wi hin he p i a e sec o . The oolbox p esen ed he e explici ly inco po a es he no ion o a ‘jus ansi ion’ in he
analysis by conside ing he impac o domes ic ac ion p og ams on dis ibu ional aspec s.
The oolbox is a ailable in open-access o m and can be adap ed o he si ua ion in di e en coun ies
1
. Due o i s
modula s uc u e, di e en componen s o he oolbox can be applied in isola ion. We keep he da a equi emen s o
ou amewo k as pa simonious as possible o ensu e b oad applicabili y. In his pape , we apply ou oolbox o he case
o Ge many o illus a e i s co e unc ionali ies and analy ical po en ial.
The Ge man building sec o has, on a e age, subop imal isola ion s anda ds and s ill makes hea y use o ossil ene gy
sou ces. Since Ge many commi ed o achie ing clima e neu ali y by he yea 2050, i ep esen s a challenging and
impo an case o applica ion. A key mo i a ion o de eloping ou oolbox is he obse a ion ha no s anda dized
p ocedu e o calcula ing eno a ion equi emen s has been de eloped, al hough a ple ho a o s udies on he ecological
ans o ma ion o he Ge man esiden ial sec o al eady exis s (BCG, 2021; BMWi, 2015; Bü ge e al.,2021; dena and
geea, 2017; i eu e al.,2018; P ognos e al.,2021; Repenning e al.,2018; Thomas e al.,2022, e.g.). Mos o hese
s udies lack anspa ency and eplicabili y ega ding he eno a ion equi emen s as well as consis en de ini ions o key
concep s like he eno a ion a e. In his espec , we ollow he example o E mgassen e al. (2022) o model domes ic
ans o ma ion pa hways o he esiden ial sec o in way ha is eplicable and can po en ially be ans e ed o o he
coun ies. In addi ion, a consis en blind spo o exis ing s udies is ha he socio-economic impac o he p oposed
policy measu es is no analyzed. In his pape , we b ing mo e cla i y in o echnical equi emen s as well as economic
consequences associa ed wi h a socio-ecological ansi ion o he esiden ial sec o in a anspa en and ep oducible
way.
Resul s
To each he goal o clima e neu ali y by he yea 2050, Ge many se emission a ge s o all ele an sec o s, including
he esiden ial sec o (Sec ion 4 o he Fede al Clima e Change Ac (Klimaschu zgese z, KSG)). The di ec ca bon
dioxide (CO
2
)-equi alen s a ibu ed o he Ge man esiden ial sec o a e es ima ed o accoun o 14% o o e all
emissions in Ge many, while his sha e inc eases o a leas 25% when also conside ing indi ec emissions (Thomas
e al.,2022).
2
The Ge man esiden ial sec o consis s o 19,4 million buildings. The majo i y o hese a e single o
wo- amily houses (83%), while he emaining buildings a e apa men buildings con aining an a e age o se en la s
(dena, 2021). In o ma ion on he quali y o insula ion and he ype o hea ing sys em is collec ed in ene gy ce i ica es
(Sec ions 79-88 o he Buildings Ene gy Ac (Gebäudeene giegese z, GEG)) ha con ain in o ma ion on he yea
o cons uc ion, he las eno a ion, he hea ing sys em, and ene gy equi emen s. These da a indica e ha Ge man
hea ing sys ems a e s ill mos ly based on ossil ene gy sou ces as nea ly 70% o all hea ing ene gy is p o ided by
decen alized oil and gas hea e s. In con as , only 17% o all ene gy de o ed o hea ing d aws on enewable ene gy
sou ces (BMWi, 2022; dena, 2021). Agains his backd op, we i s elabo a e on he echnical equi emen s be o e
mo ing on o economic equi emen s and he consequences o he socio-ecological ansi ion.
1The sou ce code o he model is a ailable ia Gi Hub
2
Di ec emissions en ail all emissions ha a e di ec ly p oduced wi hin he esiden ial sec o (e.g. h ough gas-based hea ing
sys ems), whe eas indi ec emissions include all emissions ha a e consumed in he esiden ial sec o (e.g. elec ici y-based hea ing
sys ems).
2
WORKING PAPER
Technical Requi emen s: Reduc ion and Deca boniza ion o Ene gy Use
Exis ing s udies on he ans o ma ion o he Ge man esiden ial sec o show a s ong consensus on sui able echnical
s a egies o achie e he clima e goals: Reducing ca bon emissions can be achie ed by a combina ion o eno a ions
dedica ed o imp o e ene gy e iciency and he eplacemen o ossil-based decen alized hea ing sys ems. The la e
ypically elies on hea ing pumps, ha use emission- ee ambien hea as well as he expansion o dis ic hea ing.
3
While ollowing his line o a gumen , we also ake in o accoun ha eplacing ossil uels in he esiden ial sec o
educes di ec emissions, bu may inc ease indi ec emissions as hea ing pumps equi e elec ici y o ope a e. To cap u e
his po en ial ou sou cing o hea ing- ela ed emissions om he esiden ial sec o o he ene gy sec o , we ocus on he
emissions in ensi y o he Ge man esiden ial sec o . This mo e inclusi e measu e also cap u es all indi ec emissions
induced by hea ing and he eby allows o a holis ic assessmen o how changes in he esiden ial sec o impac ne
emissions c ea ed.
Reno a ion Ra e Two di e en concep s ha e been dubbed ‘ eno a ion a e’: Fi s , he sha e o buildings ha a e
subjec ed o some o m o eno a ion and, second, he sha e o squa e me e s ha a e subjec ed o a ‘ ull eno a ion’
(whe e pa ial eno a ions a e agg ega ed in o ull eno a ions). As hese concep s di e subs an ially, we y o
achie e cla i y in ou analysis by de ining he eno a ion a e as he sha e o buildings ha unde go some o m o
ene gy-e icien eno a ion, whe eas we will call he sha e o ully eno a ed li ing a ea he ull eno a ion equi alen .
Cu en ly, he ull eno a ion equi alen in Ge many is app oxima ely 1.15% (own calcula ion based on P ognos e al.,
2021). Pas s udies ypically ecommend inc easing he ull eno a ion equi alen o 2%. We show ha his will no be
su icien o each he clima e goals. Based on ou assump ions, i is necessa y o inc ease he ull eno a ion equi alen
o a leas 2.4%, which co esponds o a eno a ion a e o 3% pe yea . In o he wo ds, he analysis acili a ed by ou
oolbox sugges s ha p io s udies ha e unde es ima ed he necessa y eno a ion a e. To complemen and con ex ualize
his main esul , we addi ionally show ha an inc eased eno a ion a e mus be pai ed wi h a deca boniza ion s a egy
o ex e nal ene gy sou ces and a p io i iza ion s a egy ha pu s he eno a ion o badly insula ed buildings i s . These
esul s a e summa ized in Figu e 1, Panels (A) and (B), which show how di e en assump ions impac he speed and
in ensi y o emission educ ions and plo hese educ ions ela i e o he o icial clima e goals.
P io i iza ion The e is a signi ican di e ence be ween eno a ing buildings in a andom o de and p io i izing he
eno a ion o he wo s -pe o ming buildings. Bo h eno a ion s a egies can, in he long- un, achie e clima e neu ali y.
Howe e , o achie e con o mi y wi h he clima e a ge s o e ime, a p io i iza ion o he wo s -pe o ming buildings is
necessa y (see Figu e 1, Panel (C)).
Deca boniza ion The need o deca bonize ex e nal ene gy sou ces applies o he ene gy sec o , which p o ides he
main ene gy sou ce o hea ing pumps, as well as o he p o ision o dis ic hea ing. In his con ex , ou oolbox allows
o mapping he ela i e con ibu ion achie ed by deca bonizing hese he e ogeneous ene gy sou ces as illus a ed in
Figu e 1, Panel (D). Fo doing so, we employ he no ion o emission in ensi y in he esiden ial sec o as de ined in
sec ion . This measu e will be closely aligned wi h con en ional es ima es based on di ec emissions i all ex e nal
ene gy sou ces a e uly deca bonized (see Figu e 1, Panel (E)), while di e ences will eme ge as soon as ou sou cing o
o he sec o s occu s (as al eady obse ed in Figu e 1, Panels (B) and (D)).
Financial equi emen s, economic impac and dis ibu ional aspec s
Financial Requi emen s Cu en ly, he annual sum o expendi u es o ene gy-e icien eno a ions in Ge many
amoun s o oughly 58 bn C. Acco ding o ou calcula ions, implemen ing ene gy-e icien eno a ions as desc ibed
abo e would induce addi ional cos s o abou 58 bn C pe yea . The o al in es men un il 2050 sums up o 3.1 illion
C (in 2023 p ices). P io i izing he eno a ion o he wo s -pe o ming buildings implies ha an o e -p opo ional sha e
o o al cos s occu s in he ea ly yea s. In he i s yea o he policy measu e, addi ional cos s o 81 bn C a e an icipa ed,
3
Howe e , a he momen dis ic hea ing in Ge many s ill elies hea ily on ossil uels as only 12% a e p o ided h ough
enewable sou ces such as biomass, o ganic was e, geo- and sola he mal ene gy and was e incine a ion (BDEW, 2021).
3
WORKING PAPER
clima e goals
eno a ion a e o 1.5%
eno a ion a e o 2%
eno a ion a e o 3%
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2055
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
(A)Exchange o Hea ing Sys ems and Reno a ion
clima e goals
eno a ion a e o 2.5%
eno a ion a e o 3%
eno a ion a e o 2.5%+deca b
eno a ion a e o 3%+deca b
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2055
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
(B)Exchange, Reno a ion and Deca bonza ion
clima e goals
eno a ion a e o 3%+deca b (no p io)
eno a ion a e o 3%+deca b
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2055
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
(C)The impac o p io iza ion
clima e goals
eno a ion a e o 3% (no deca b)
eno a ion a e o 3%+deca b ene gy
eno a ion a e o 3%+deca b all
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2055
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
(D)De ails on deca boniza ion
clima e goals
eno a ion a e o 3%: di ec emissions only
eno a ion a e o 3%: emission in ensi y
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2055
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
(E)Emission in ensi y s. di ec emissions
cos in %o GDP (p io i ized)
cos in %o GDP ( andomized)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
2050
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
(F)T ansi ion cos s in %o GDP
Figu e 1: Emission educ ions in he esiden ial sec o : Panels (A)-(E) show expec ed emission educ ions unde
di e en scena ios, while Panel (F) shows expec ed (addi ional) cos s a ising in a ull-deca boniza ion scena io wi h a
3% eno a ion a e.
4
WORKING PAPER
which amoun s o abou 1.9% o GDP, which o e ime dec eases o 0.3% (Figu e 1, Panel (F)).
4
As discussed below,
we p opose combining a ge ed public subsidies wi h egula o y means o mee hese equi emen s. Regula o y means
a e he eby ele an o an e ec i e p io i iza ion o eno a ions, i.e. o eno a ing he wo s -pe o ming buildings i s ,
bu also o ensu e ha owne s, who do no quali y o a subsidy, canno delay eno a ion measu es.
Economic Impac These addi ional in es men s in he esiden ial sec o ha e di ec economic consequences, which
a e explo ed by making use o an inpu -ou pu model. We ind a – compa a i ely low – GDP mul iplie o 1.16, which
implies ha e e y C in es ed in ans o ma ion measu es will inc ease GDP by 1.16 C. This esul is due o he
low p e-p oduc ion in ensi y o he a ec ed sec o s and he ac ha many in e media e goods equi ed o such an
in es men ini ia i e need o be impo ed om ab oad5.
Ou oolbox can be used o assess po en ial capaci y cons ain s. We ind ha ini ia ing he sugges ed ans o ma ion
will inc ease employmen in he cons uc ion sec o by app oxima ely 274,000 wo ke s. In he ea ly yea s, his demand
can ange up o a maximum o 377,000 wo ke s. Long- e m es ima es o labo ma ke de elopmen in he Ge man
cons uc ion sec o a gue ha his addi ional labo demand could be me h ough a decline in new cons uc ion p ojec s
(Do meis e , 2020). Zika e al. (2022) e en poin s o an endogenous dec ease in labo demand in he cons uc ion
indus y by 60,000 by 2030 and by 220,000 by 2040 – a end ha could po en ially be u he in ensi ied by ecen
ECB in e es a e hikes. This lea es a subs an ial pool o labo in he new cons uc ion sec o ha can be u ilized o
inc eased eno a ions o exis ing buildings, especially when aking in o accoun he possibili y o ealloca ing he
exis ing wo k o ce om he cons uc ion o new buildings owa d eno a ion. Such a ealloca ion is also ad isable
when aking in o accoun ha he cons uc ion o new building con ibu es signi ican ly o ne emission ou pu (see
D ewniok e al.,2023a,b).
Dis ibu ional aspec s The dis ibu ion o esiden ial p ope y in mos coun ies is highly une en as la ge sha es o
esiden ial p ope y a e held by households a he uppe end o he weal h dis ibu ion (OECD, 2022). Hence, unding
he ans o ma ion wi h a wa e ing-can p inciple migh be e ec i e in echnical e ms, bu i would edis ibu e axpaye
money om less weal hy indi iduals owa d – al eady compa ably weal hy – esiden ial eal es a e owne s. This would
u he speed up obse ed secula ends owa ds inc easing inequali y (F ick e al.,2012) and is also likely o educe
public suppo o such measu es (Dabla-No is e al.,2023). Acco ding o HFCS da a, he weal hies 10% o he
Ge man popula ion own 48% o esiden ial weal h while he leas weal hy 50% only own 3% o eal es a e p ope y.
These obse a ions indica e ha possible subsidies should ensu e o no in ensi y weal h concen a ion.
Ene gy-e icien eno a ion measu es on esiden ial buildings lead o an inc ease in he alue o he a ec ed p ope ies.
I he p ope ies we e owned by p i a e indi iduals, a subsidy would imply subsidizing p i a e weal h. To a oid such
a cons ella ion, we assess he economic capaci y o subsidized households based on p i a e weal h and sugges o
inco po a e his in o he subsidy decision. We a gue ha i is easonable o link he ex en o public subsidy o he (ne )
weal h posi ion o subsidized households o (a) gua an ee suppo o hose who canno a o d he necessa y eno a ion
e o s, and (b) a oid using gene al ax e enues o subsidize he weal h o he iches households.
Speci ically, we p opose ha a gi en segmen o he leas weal hy households ecei es unding o he ull cos o
he necessa y eno a ions, whe eas some uppe segmen o he weal hies households has o bea he ull cos o he
eno a ions – o households alling be ween hese weal h ex emes, he subsidy a e can be de e mined h ough linea
in e pola ion.
6
Acco ding o ou calcula ions, he Ge man go e nmen would co e app oxima ely 26% o he inancing
needs o buildings owned by p i a e households (which co esponds o 21% o o al cos s when also aking ins i u ional
owne ships in o accoun ). This amoun s o a e age public cos s o a ound 24 bn C annually.
4
In his con ex , we assume a eal annual GDP g ow h a e o 1% and an in la ion a e in he cons uc ion sec o ha co esponds
o he o e all in la ion a e.
5
Mos impo s a e gene a ed in he ollowing sec o s: Specialised cons uc ion wo ks,Rubbe and plas ics p oduc s,Chemicals
and chemical p oduc s,Ce amic p oduc s, p ocessed s one and clay,Coke and e ined pe oleum p oduc s,Machine y,Glass and
Glasswa e, and Elec ical Equipmen .
6
In ou baseline applica ion we employ h eshold alues o 65% ( o dema ca e he poo e segmen ha is ully subsidized) and
90% ( o dema ca e he iche households, which should ecei e no public unds), bu hese numbe s could be adap ed o local
ci cums ances. The implemen a ion o such a measu e could be based on sel -decla a ions o households, subjec o andom audi s,
in a apid, e icien , and da a p o ec ion- iendly manne .
5
WORKING PAPER
Fo ins i u ional owne s, we sugges conside ing discoun ed cos s ins ead o ull cos s and es ic ing he use o subsidies
o hose eno a ion cos s ha canno be amo ized wi hin hi y yea s. The main eason o his assump ion is ha
ins i u ional owne s ypically ha e a longe planning ho izon and bene i di ec ly om he impac o eno a ions on
balance shee s, which o en leads o an inc ease in equi y ha compensa es a signi ican ac ion o he in es men cos s
e en be o e cos - educ ions a e ealized.
Discussion
This pape is conce ned wi h he ques ion o how o concep ualize a ajec o y owa ds clima e neu ali y in he
esiden ial sec o . Using ou oolbox, we ind ha his ajec o y di e s signi ican ly om he es ima es gi en in
exis ing s udies. The ull eno a ion equi alen necessa y o each Ge man clima e goals is a leas 2.4% – highe han
p e iously expec ed. Addi ionally, we ind ha , o s ay in line wi h he clima e a ge s, wo s -pe o ming buildings
need o be eno a ed i s . The equi ed high eno a ion a e and p io i iza ion imply a need o egula o y measu es.
A second majo inding is ela ed o sec o linkages. Typically, he ocus on a single sec o akes di ec emissions
as a na u al benchma k, which o e looks he po en ial ou sou cing o di ec o indi ec emissions. By ocusing on
emission in ensi y as a key concep , we ake implica ions o he ene gy p o ision in o accoun o p o ide an in eg a ed
assessmen demons a ing he need o deca bonize ex e nal ene gy sou ces.
Ou es ima es o he in es men equi ed o each necessa y eno a ion a es a e also highe han in p e ious s udies.
This is pa ly due o he highe eno a ion a e and pa ly o he ac ha exis ing s udies usually employ a ne p esen
alue me hod when calcula ing in es men cos s.We a gue ha his app oach is no sui able o p i a e owne s since,
o he han ins i u ional owne s, hey a e aced wi h a mo e sho - e m planning ho izon. Also, his se up leads o a
high a ia ion in exis ing es ima es o he equi ed in es men and has con ibu ed o con usion on wha cos s o expec
as well as on wha economic impac he in es men migh ha e. Acco ding o ou calcula ions, an addi ional yea ly
in es men o 58 bn C is needed (which, on a e age is below 1.3% o Ge many’s GDP).
We u he s udy he economic impac o his in es men in an inpu -ou pu amewo k. Due o a high dependency on
impo s (30% o ini ial in es men s), he mul iplie o 1.16 is ela i ely low. While ma e ial bo lenecks a e no expec ed,
he in es men s a egy will gene a e an a e age o 274,000 new jobs in he cons uc ion sec o . A d awback o he
inpu -ou pu me hod is ha i canno accoun o possible economies o scale e ec s a ising om such in es men . Such
e ec s would educe o e all cos , impo -dependency and help o a oid labo sho ages. The esul s o ou analysis
ha e wo impo an policy implica ions. Fi s , c ea ing an inno a ion- iendly en i onmen in Ge many could bo h help
o educe he impo dependency and os e scale e ec s, he eby educing cos s and he equi ed wo k o ce. Second,
measu es o a oid sho - e m labo sho ages could suppo he ans o ma ion.
Finally, we p o ide a inancing model ha , in he sense o a ‘jus ansi ion’ akes he highly unequal dis ibu ion o
weal h in o accoun . We p opose ha he s a e ully subsidizes eno a ion measu es o he leas weal hy households,
while he weal hies should ca y he en i e cos s hemsel es. Households be ween hese wo g oups could be subsidized
acco ding o a linea unc ion. P o iding subsidies condi ional on household weal h, (a) can inc ease suppo o he
necessa y eno a ion e o s, and (b) a oids subsidizing he iches households’ weal h. We de elop a scena io o
illus a i e pu poses in which he lowes 65% in he weal h dis ibu ion a e ully subsidized whe eas he highes 10%
a e no subsidized a all.7In his scena io, he s a e would ca y 26% o o e all eno a ion cos s.
A inancing model i o a socio-ecological ans o ma ion has o also ake in o accoun he si ua ion o enan s. In
Ge many, he sha e o households who li e in en al uni s is abo e he EU a e age. I is, he e o e, especially impo an
ha eno a ion cos s a e no passed on by owne s (who a e al eady subsidized acco ding o hei weal h) o he enan s.
Acco ding o he ‘landlo d/ enan dilemma’, ene gy-e icien eno a ions bene i bo h pa ies. While enan s bene i
om eno a ions wi h lowe ene gy cos s and highe li ing com o , landlo ds inc ease he economic alue o hei
p ope ies. I is he e o e no immedia ely clea who should bea he cos s o ene gy-e icien eno a ion (Ás ma sson
e al.,2013). While i is gene ally allowed in Ge many o pass on eno a ion cos s o enan s ia inc eased en s, i
emains con o e sial whe he and o wha ex en such en inc eases can be jus i ied in he long e m by lowe ene gy
7These h esholds can be adap ed o local ci cums ances.
6
WORKING PAPER
Figu e 2: This g aph shows he s eps necessa y o de i e eliable esul s and iable policies on he ans o ma ion o he
esiden ial sec o . All hese s eps can be also applied in isola ion.
cos s o enan s (see, e.g. Enseling and Hinz, 2006; Gal in and Sunikka-Blank, 2012). Agains his backd op, addi ional
egula o y measu es seem equi ed o he Ge man case o ensu e ha ansi ion cos s a e no passed on o en e s.
Me hod
In his sec ion, we p esen ou oolbox ha can be used o compu e di e en ans o ma ion scena ios o any coun y
o in e es . Figu e 2summa izes he main s eps o he unde lying p ocedu e o de i e he necessa y eno a ion a e
(s eps 1 - 4), associa ed cos s (s ep 5), he o e all economic impac (s ep 6), and ela ed policy measu es ha a e bo h
conside a e o dis ibu ional ac o s and i o conduc he ans o ma ion (s ep 7). The oolbox makes use o a a ie y o
mac o-, meso-, and mic o-da a. An o e iew o he da a necessa y o eplica e ou s udy o o he coun ies can be
ound in Table 1.
Ge ing he Sample Righ
In ou oolbox, we assume he a ailabili y o mic oda a on he esiden ial sec o . As a ailable da a migh no be
ep esen a i e o co e dimensions o in e es , we employ a wo-dimensional s a i ica ion app oach ha eplica es
he known agg ega e dis ibu ion o (1) housing ypes and (2) ene gy e iciency classes. By doing so, we p o ide a
use ul s a ing poin o a oid biased esul s due o selec ion p oblems. In addi ion, he oolbox allows he ex ac ion o
agg ega e p ope ies om he s a i ied sample ha can be compa ed wi h a ailable mac o-in o ma ion, such as he
a e age ene gy e iciency pe squa e me e and yea , o e i y he alidi y o he s a i ied sample.
Fo he Ge man case, we use he RWI-GEO-RED Real Es a e Da a, a da ase ha p o ides in o ma ion on he Ge man
eal es a e sec o . I consis s o aw da a om he eal es a e pla o m immoscou 24.de on which owne s o esiden ial
p ope ies p o ide excessi e in o ma ion o po en ial enan s and buye s, including da a on hea ing acili ies and ene gy
equi emen s. The RWI da ase is, howe e , no ep esen a i e o Ge many as olde single o wo- amily houses a e
less likely o be en ed ou o sold. Since hese buildings end o ha e a low ene gy e iciency class, his leads o an
unde ep esen a ion o low ene gy e iciency buildings in he RWI sample. We coun e his sho coming by applying
s ep 1 o ou p ocedu e as desc ibed abo e.
This me hod ep oduces qui e accu a ely agg ega e in o ma ion on he dis ibu ion o e iciency classes dena and
K iege , 2019. Plausibili y checks suppo he hesis ha ou s a i ied da a is ep esen a i e o Ge man esiden ial
buildings.
7
