Mille , P. A.; Binedell, N.
A icle
En i onmen al analysis and he planning p ocess in a
Sou h A ican con ex
Sou h A ican Jou nal o Business Managemen
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Uni e si y o S ellenbosch Business School (USB), Bell ille, Sou h A ica
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Mille , P. A.; Binedell, N. (1982) : En i onmen al analysis and he planning
p ocess in a Sou h A ican con ex , Sou h A ican Jou nal o Business Managemen , ISSN 2078-5976,
A ican Online Scien i ic In o ma ion Sys ems (AOSIS), Cape Town, Vol. 13, Iss. 3, pp. 113-117,
h ps://doi.o g/10.4102/sajbm. 13i3.1182
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/217802
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En i onmen al
analysis
and
he
planning
p ocess
in a
Sou h
A ican con ex
PA.
Mille
G adua e
School o Business, Uni e si y o Cape Town
N.
Binedell
GEC
Equipmen (P y) L d, Den e
The
au ho s
o
his pape examine he ex en
o
he
applica ion o en i onmen al analysis du ing he planning
p ocess
In
Sou h A ican businesses. O e seas, and
in
he
Uni ed
S a es in pa icula , sophis ica ed echniques o
analysing he en i onmen a e being de eloped, and hese
would
appea o ha e a eady ma ke in he Sou h A ican
en i onmen . Should Sou h A ican business ace ela i ely
u bulen imes in he nea u u e, he e will
be
a need o
companies o de elop e ec i e means
o
analysing changing
ends,
and
o in eg a ing hei indings in o he s a egic
planning p ocess. Two sepa a e esea ch su eys we e
conduc ed, one
o
150
lis ed companies and a second
o
15
majo
Sou h A ican companies. While mos jou nals and
ex s
would
see
he en i onmen al analysis as
an
In eg al
pa
o he planning p ocess, he majo i y
o
companies did
no
ag ee
wi h his iew.
S.
A .
J.
Bus. Mgm . 1982, 13:
113-117
Die
sk ywe s
an
hie die a ikel onde soek die ma e waa in
omgewingson leding ydens die beplanningsp oses in Suid·
A ikaanse onde nemings oegepas wo d.
In
die bui eland
en
e al
in
die Ve enigde S a e, wo d e ynde egnieke i
on leding
an
die omgewing on wikkel en daa behoo 'n
goeie
ma k
hie oo in die Suid-A ikaanse omgewing e
wees.
lndien Suid-A ikaanse onde nemings
in
die nabye
oekoms
ela ie on s uimige ye
in
die gesig sou s aa , sal
di
nodig
wees da maa skappye e ek iewe manle e
on wikkel
om
die e ande ende neigings e on leed
en
om
hulle
be indings me die s a egiese beplanningsp oses e
in eg ee .
Twee
a sonde like na o singopnames is gedoen,
een
an
'n
lys
an
150
geno ee de maa skappye
en
'n
weede
an
15
g oo Suid-A ikaanse maa skappye. Alhoewel die
mees e
ak ydsk i e
en
handboeke omgewingson leding
as
'n
in eg ale deel
an
die beplanningsp oses beskou, he die
mees e
maa skappye nie me hie die mening saamges em
nie.
S.·A .
Tydsk . Bed y s . 1982, 13:
113-117
P.A.
MIie
Senio
Lec u e , G adua e Sc:hool
o
Business. Uni e si y
o
Cape
Town.
Roadcbosch
7700, Republic
o
Sou h
A ica
N
.....
~
Manaae , GEC Equipmen (P y) L d, 322 Main Ree Road, Den e
• Republic
o
Sou h A ica
Recei ed
May
1982;
aa:q, cd
June
1982
In oduc ion
Whe he he Sou h A ican business en i onmen
is
becoming ela i ely mo e u bulen when compa ed wi h
i s pas
o
ela i e o o he business en i onmen s
is
a
ma e o conjec u e and indi idual opinion.
The
de elopmen
o
echniques o sys emized
en i onmen al analysis in he Uni ed S a es indica es ha
ei he managemen science
is
ad ancing
in
ha sys ema ic
p ocedu es a e being de eloped,
o
ha he en i onmen
i sel
is
becoming inc easingly complex and in e ac i e, and
he e o e equi es sys ema ic analysis. P oponen s
o
u u e
esea ch such
as
Kahn 1 and
Be11
2 ad oca e he
iew
ha
he en i onmen
is
changing mo e apidly han be o e, and
is
mo ing in undamen ally
new
di ec ions.
The au ho s would sugges ha as a apidly de eloping
economy,
he
complexi y
o
he
Sou h
A ican
en i onmen
is
inc easing in a numbe
o
a eas
which
impac on he conduc
o
business. Mo e con o e sial
pe haps
is
he iew ha o a ious easons he Sou h
A ican mac o-en i onmen
will
unde go undamen al
shi s, and
will
be
p essu ed
in
a ious ways which
will
ine i ably lead o new oppo uni ies and shi s o he
business communi y in gene al e ms, and wi hin pa icula
indus ies.
Table I indica es he na u e
o
possible sou ces
o
en i onmen al
u bulence
in Sou h
A ica
in
he
u u e.
Should hese issues de elop as p essu e poin s in he
en i onmen , and he hypo hesis ha he Sou h
A ican
business
en i onmen
aces
a
ela i ely
u bulen
ou look
be indica ed, hen
i
is
clea
ha
he e
will
be
p essu e
on companies o de elop e ec i e means
o
analysing hese
shi s and ends in he en i onmen in which hey will
ope a e. Mo e impo an ly, manage s
will
need o
de elop
means
o
meaning ully in eg a ing he ou come
o
en i onmen al analysis in o he s a egic planning p ocess.
The
need
o en i onmen al analysis
The e olu ion
o
economic ac i i y has led o he de elop-
men
o
la ge o ganiza ions comp ising a hos
o
ac i i ies
and indi iduals. This inc eased size has in
um
led o in-
c eased complexi y
in
e ms
o
dependencies, ela ionships,
pu poses and cou ses
o
ac ion. As a esul ,
m~age s
_ha e
had o lea n o a end o hose sec o s
o
hei en i on-
men which demand ac ion. I hey do no , hey end o
lose hei compe i i e ad an age, missing oppo uni ies and
114
Table 1 Possible u u e sou ces o u bulence in
he sou h A ican en i onmen
Economic
Con inued escala ion
o
in la ion
Sho age
o
in es men capi al
In e na ional economic isola ion
Income dis ibu ion
Bal~ce
o
paymen cycles
Black business de elopmen
Rising eal expendi u e pe capi a
Capi al
s
labou in ensi e in es men
Inc easing mili a y expendi u e
Black spending powe
The choice be ween a ee ma ke
s
Socialis economy
Di ec ion
o
in e na ional ade
Go e nmen
iscal
policies
Social
Popula ion g ow h
Pola iza ion
o
acial g oups
Eme gen
alue
sys ems
Educa ion le els
Poli ical
Eme gen powe dispensa ion
Regional s abili y
Pola iza ion
o
poli ical powe cen es
Namibian independence esolu ion
In e na ional ela ions
Inc easing e o ism
Labou
Skills
sho age
Rela i e labou cos s
P oduc i i y le els
Indus ial ela ions
Labou un es
Physical
Ene gy
dependence
Wa e
sho age
A able
land
sh inkage
e en ually inc easing hei companies' cos s. In
he
long
un he company's exis ence may e en be h ea ened.
The
key
o he inc eased impo ance
o
managing a com-
pany in ela ion
o
i s en i onmen is oo ed in he speed
o
change. D ucke has indica ed
ha
he cu en
pa adigms
o
he planning p ocess will simply
no
wo k
in u bulen imes. 'Planning s a s
ou ,
as a ule, wi h he
ends
o
yes e day
and
p ojec s hem in o he u u e -
using a di e en
"mix"
pe haps,
bu
wi h e y much he
same elemen s and con igu a ion.
The
mos p obable
assump ion in a pe iod
o
u bulence is he unique e en
which changes wi h con igu a ion -
and
unique e en s
canno by de ini ion be planned.
'3
Ou
expe ience sugges s
ha
mos companies a e
no
s uc u ed
o
o ganized in o de
o
deal wi h a apidly
changing en i onmen . Rewa ds
and
incen i es
a e
s uc-
u ed
a ound
smoo h g ow h in a simple, p edic able en-
i onmen , while he ue en i onmen appea s o be com-
plex, unce ain
and
p oblema ic. Howe e , de elopmen s
in he a eas
o
u u es esea ch
and
en i onmen al scan-
ning may indica e ha managemen
is
s a ing
o
ealize
ha
he e is a need
o
unde s and
and
deal wi h hese issues
h ough ins i u ionalizing he low
o
ex e nal in o ma ion
which is ele an
o
i s s a egies
and
p ospe i y.
S.-A .
Tydsk . Bed y sl.
1982,
l3(l)
The s a e o he a
Techniques o en i onmen al analysis and u u es
esea ch
ha e ecei ed inc easing a en ion in jou nals and
manage.
men jou nals dealing wi h s a egic planning and
co po a e
s a egy. Fahey
and
King4 in
1977
showed ha
only
wo
ou
o
12
majo
co po a ions
s udied
had
es ablished
en-
i onmen al analysis sys ems
and
ha e en hose
wo
com-
panies we e scanning
on
a egula bu no a
con inuous
basis. 'O e all hese esul s e eal a signi ican
gap
be-
ween
he
con en ional assump ions conce ning
en-
i onmen al scanning
and
i s implemen a ion
in
la ge
co -
po a ions. Al hough he end is owa d g ea e
sophis ica-
ion,
no
enough
e idence
o
demons a ed impac
exis s
o
wa an
a conclusion
ha
en i onmen al scanning
will
become a egula elemen
o
co po a e planning. '5
Recen -
ly
hey examined he use
o
a ious en i onmen al
analysis
echniques.
'Awa e
p o essionals' -membe s o
he
Wo ld
Fu u es
Socie y -we e asked
o
a e he
cu en
usage
and
pe cei ed u ili y
o
a ious me hods on a
scale
o
O - 7. Resul s
a e
shown
in Table
2.
Table 2 Pe cei ed po en ial u ili y and ac ual
usage
o
o ecas ing me hods
Me hod
U ili y
Usage
Scena io w i ing 6,1
4,2
Simula ion
4 2
Mo phological
analysis
4,2
2,1
PPBS
2 2
Game
heo y 2 2
C oss
impac analysis 3,9 2
Inpu -ou pu
analysis 4,8 2,9
Field ana noly ela ion 2 2
O he
(including Delphi) 6,1
S,1
Sou ce: Fahey,
L.
and
King,
R.,
En i onmen al scanning and
o ecas ing
in s a egic planning. Long Range Planning, Feb ua y
1981,
p.3S
Thei gene al conclusions we e
ha
he
a e age
le el
o
p ac ice is low ela i e
o
he
iewpoin exp essed
in
jou ·
nals
and
ex s;
he
mos
sophis ica ed app oach o
scan
ning appea s
o
be
he
es ablishmen
o
a sepa a e
scan
ning uni
al hough
he e
is
no
clea ag eemen
o
he
ap
p op ia eness
o
sepa a e scanning uni s; and ha
en
i onmen al analysis is
no
ega ded as su icien ly
impo ·
an
o
necessi a e a
majo
deploymen
o
esou ces. .
Thomas
on
he
o he
hand
concluded
ha
' he
p e ail·
ing s e eo ype
o
en i onmen al scanning as a
ma ginal
i o y owe exe cise equi es modi ica ion. In o de o
cap-
u e he essence
o
he
scanning p ocess, one has o
m~ e
away
om
he
con en ional mic o iew
o
a single
ID·
di idual ca ying
ou
his unc ion,
o
a mac o one
which
is o ganic (i
no
ully o ganized ye ) in cha ac e
..
·
(and
as a esul ) sys ema ic omni-di ec ional scanning o
co ·
po a e
planning is
on
he
h eshold
o
apid
g ow h
and
de elopmen '6
(au ho s'
wo ds in pa en hesis).
Co po a e sensi i i y o he en i onmen
In
o de
o
de e mine whe he lis ed
Sou h
A ican
com·
panies showed inc eased sensi i i y
o
he
mac o en i on·
·
on
men
as sugges ed by
Thomas
and
he
ex en
o
en i ·
men analysis wi hin
he
o malized planning p ocess,
wo
S.A . J. Bus. Mgm 1982 13(3)
sepa a e esea ch su eys we e conduc ed: One, a mailed
ques ionnai e sen o 150 lis ed companies and ano he ,
a se ies
o
ocus in e iews wi h
15
majo Sou h A ican
companies.
Because he au ho s expec ed o encoun e a g ea di e -
si y
o
le els
o
sophis ica ion anging om ad hoc in o -
mal scanning by he chie execu i e o egula o mal
analysis by specialis unc ions, he limi a ions
o
a mail-
ed ques ionnai e we e acknowledged and
i
was accep ed
ha a meaning ul pe spec i e could only be added h ough
in-dep h discussion wi h execu i es and planning manage s.
Objec i es
The esea ch objec i es we e:
To de e mine he ex en
o
he use
o
en i onmen al
analysis in Sou h A ican companies, his being seen
as pa
o
he o e all planning p ocess, and
o es ablish how he en i onmen al analysis
is
in-
eg a ed in o he planning p ocess and e en ually in-
o he managemen cul u e
o
he company.
(O he objec i es we e included bu all ou side he scope
o
his pape .)
The ques ionnai e was sen o
150
lis ed companies
chosen on a sys ema ic sampling basis,
ha
is
he o al
numbe
o
lis ed companies di ided by he sample equi ed
(450/150) mean
ha
e e y ou h company was selec ed
om he alphabe ical index. This ga e a o al
o
135
and
a u he
15
we e andomly included. The use
o
an
alphabe ical index ensu ed
ha
no bias by ype
o
indus y
was
possible. A o al
o
35
ques ionnai es we e e u ned
o
which
31
(20,670/o) we e usable. The salien indings
o
he su ey we e:
Findings o ques ionnai e su ey
No o mal planning depa men
A o al
o
21
(67,
70/o)
o
companies had no o mal plan-
ning depa men
o
pe son assigned o a planning ole.
While he au ho s concluded
ha
his did no necessa ily
indica e ha companies wi hou a speci ically assigned
planning ask a e
poo
planne s, he planning ask does
equi e specialis skills, and insu icien esou ces o ene gy
de o ed o he planning unc ion could lead o poo plan-
ning. The planning unc ion in he majo i y
o
hese com-
panies
(61
OJo)
was ca ied
ou
by he chie execu i e o ice
o he chie inancial o ice indi idually
o
oge he .
Subsequen ly only
one
o
hese companies had i s
ma ke ing pe sonnel in ol ed in he planning p ocess.
Planning ocus
Companies wi h a o mal planning unc ion u ilized a mean
planning ime ho izon
o
4,4 yea s
and
hose wi hou had
a mean
o
3,9 yea s. Gene ally he ocus
o
mos o mal
planning was
on
he inancial aspec s
o
he i m, wi h he
i e
mos popula planning componen s as shown in Table
3.
En i onmen al analysis
En i onmen al anaiysis a ed ai ly poo ly, wi h only
17
companies
(550/o
o
he su ey) ca ying ou any ype
o
en i onmen al analysis.
O
hese,
10
we e among hose
wi hou a o mal planning unc ion. The ime ho izon was
3,05
yea s, conside ably sho e han o p ojec ed capi al
115
Table 3
The
mos popula planning componen s
l17o
Time
ho izon
Planning
componen
o
companies mean alue in yea s
I. P ojec ed cash lows 90 3,32
2. P ojec ed income
s a emen s 90 3,59
3. P ojec ed capi al
in es men s
87
3,88
4. P ojec ed balance
shee s 84 2,96
5.
Re iew
o
pas
pe o mance 77 1,88
in es men s. The au ho s su mised ha in a dynamic en-
i onmen , analysis ime ho izon may be necessa ily sho .
En i onmen al sec o s analysed
The mac o en i onmen
is
depic ed in e ms
o
a diag am
made up
o
six
en i onmen al sec o s impac ing on an in-
dus y and on indi idual companies (see Figu e 1
).
Responden s we e asked o wha ex en hei companies
analysed each en i onmen al sec o (see Table 4).
The economic en i onmen
is
he mos commonly
analysed sec o .
O
he
31
companies ha esponded,
29
ei he analyse
o
analyse
in
de ail he economic en i on-
men . Compa ed wi h he economic, physical, social and
echnological en i onmen s, he poli ical and ins i u-
ional/legal en i onmen s ecei e ela i ely li le analy ical
a en ion. Clea ly i ms wi h o mal planning unc ions
ha e inc eased awa eness
o
en i onmen al analysis as a
whole, and he e o e we e mo e likely o analyse each sec-
o , whe eas hose i ms no analysing a pa icula sec o
usually dis ega ded his sec o because hey el
i
was no
ele an o hei pa icula indus y.
Sou ces
o
in o ma ion used o he pu poses
o
he en-
i onmen al analysis we e a ied bu he mos popula we e
(in descending o de
o
popula i y)
Comme cial bank epo s
Depa men
o
S a is ics
Bu eau o Economic Resea ch
T ade jou nals
Social
en i onmen
Poli ical
en i onmen
Economic
en i onmen
Indus y
Company
lns i u ionaU .egal
en i onmen
Physical
en i onmen
Technological
en i onmen
Figu e
1 Six en i onmen al sec o s impac ing
on
indus y
and
companies
114
Table
1 Possible u u e sou ces
o
u bulence
In
he Sou h A ican en i onmen
Economic
Con inued escala ion
o
in la ion
Sho age
o
in es men capi al
In e na ional economic isola ion
Income dis ibu ion
Balance
o
paymen cycles
Black
business de elopmen
Rising eal expendi u e pe capi a
Capi al
s
labou in ensi e in es men
Inc easing mili a y expendi u e
Black spending powe
The choice be ween a ee ma ke
s
Socialis economy
Di ec ion
o
in e na ional ade
Go e nmen
iscal
policies
Social
Popula ion g ow h
Pola iza ion
o
acial g oups
Eme gen alue sys ems
Educa ion le els
Poli ical
Eme gen powe dispensa ion
Regional s abili y
Pola iza ion
o
poli ical powe cen es
Namibian
independence
esolu ion
In e na ional ela ions
Inc easing
e o ism
Labou
Skills
sho age
Rela i e
labou
cos s
P oduc i i y le els
Indus ial ela ions
Labou
un es
Physical
Ene gy
dependence
Wa e
sho age
A able
land
sh inkage
e en ually inc easing hei companies' cos s. In he long
un he company's exis ence may e en
be
h ea ened.
The
key
o
he inc eased impo ance
o
managing a com-
pany in ela ion o i s en i onmen
is
oo ed in he speed
o
change. D ucke has indica ed
ha
he cu en
pa adigms
o
he planning p ocess will simply no wo k
in u bulen imes. 'Planning s a s ou , as a ule, wi h he
ends
o
yes e day and p ojec s hem in o he u u e -
using a di e en
"mix"
pe haps, bu wi h e y much he
same elemen s and con igu a ion. The mos p obable
assump ion in a pe iod
o
u bulence
is
he unique e en
which changes wi h con igu a ion -and unique e en s
canno by de ini ion
be
planned. '3
Ou expe ience sugges s ha mos companies a e no
s uc u ed
o
o ganized in o de o deal wi h a apidly
changing en i onmen . Rewa ds and incen i es a e s uc-
u ed a ound smoo h g ow h in a simple, p edic able en-
i onmen , while he ue en i onmen appea s o be com-
plex, unce ain and p oblema ic. Howe e , de elopmen s
in he a eas
o
u u es esea ch and en i onmen al
scan-
ning may indica e ha managemen
is
s a ing o ealize
ha he e is a need
o
unde s and and deal wi h hese issues
h ough ins i u ionalizing he low
o
ex e nal in o ma ion
which
is
ele an o i s s a egies and p ospe i y.
S.-A . Tydsk . Bed y sl.
1982,
13(3)
The
s a e
o
he
a
Techniques o en i onmen al analysis and u u es
esea ch
ha e ecei ed inc easing a en ion in jou nals and
manage-
men jou nals dealing wi h s a egic planning and
co po a e
s a egy. Fahey and King4 in
1977
showed ha
only
wo
ou
o
12
majo co po a ions s udied had es ablished
en-
i onmen al analysis sys ems and ha e en hose
wo
com-
panies we e scanning on a egula bu no a
con inuous
basis. 'O e all hese esul s e eal a signi ican
gap
be-
ween he con en ional assump ions conce ning
en-
i onmen al scanning and i s implemen a ion
in
la ge
co -
po a ions. Al hough he end is owa d g ea e
sophis ica-
ion, no enough e idence
o
demons a ed impac
exis s
o wa an a conclusion
ha
en i onmen al scanning
will
become a egula elemen
o
co po a e planning. '5
Recen -
ly
hey examined he use
o
a ious en i onmen al
analysis
echniques. 'Awa e p o essionals' -membe s o
he
Wo ld Fu u es Socie y -we e asked o a e he
cu en
usage
and
pe cei ed u ili y
o
a ious me hods on a
scale
o
0-
7. Resul s a e shown in Table 2.
Table
2 Pe cei ed po en ial u ili y
and
ac ual
usage
o
o ecas ing me hods
Me hod U ili y
Usage
Scena io w i ing
6,1
4,2
Simula ion 4 2
Mo phological analysis 4,2
2,1
PPBS
2 2
Game
heo y 2 2
C oss impac analysis 3,9 2
Inpu -ou pu analysis 4,8
2,9
Field anamoly ela ion 2 2
O he
(including Delphi)
6,1
S,l
Sou ce: Fahey, L.
and
King,
R., En i onmen al scanning and
o ecas ing
in s a egic planning.
Long
Range Planning, Feb ua y
1981,
p.35
Thei gene al conclusions we e
ha
he
a e age
le el
o
p ac ice
is
low ela i e o he iewpoin exp essed
in
jou -
nals and ex s; he mos sophis ica ed app oach o
scan-
ning appea s o be he es ablishmen
o
a sepa a e
scan-
ning uni al hough he e is
no
clea ag eemen
o
he
ap-
p op ia eness
o
sepa a e scanning uni s; and ha
en-
i onmen al analysis
is
no ega ded as su icien ly
impo -
an o necessi a e a
majo
deploymen
o
esou ces. .
Thomas
on
he o he hand concluded ha ' he
p e ail-
ing s e eo ype
o
en i onmen al scanning
as
a
ma ginal
i o y owe exe cise equi es modi ica ion. In o de o
cap-
u e he essence
o
he scanning p ocess, one has o
mo e
away
om he con en ional mic o iew
o
a single
~-
di idual ca ying
ou
his unc ion,
o
a mac o one
which
is o ganic (i no ully o ganized ye ) in cha ac e
...
(and
as a esul ) sys ema ic omni-di ec ional scanning o
co -
po a e planning is
on
he h eshold
o
apid g ow h
and
de elopmen '6 (au ho s' wo ds in pa en hesis).
Co po a e
sensi i i y
o
he
en i onmen
In
o de o de e mine whe he lis ed Sou h A ican
com-
panies showed inc eased sensi i i y o he mac o
en i on-
men as sugges ed by Thomas
and
he ex en
o
en i on-
men analysis wi hin he o malized planning p ocess,
wo

S.A .
J. Bus. Mgm 1982 13(3)
sepa a e
esea ch su eys we e conduc ed: One, a mailed
ques ionnai e sen o 1
SO
lis ed companies
and
ano he ,
a se ies
o
ocus in e iews wi h
15
majo Sou h A ican
companies.
Because he au ho s expec ed o encoun e a g ea di e -
si y
o
le els
o
sophis ica ion anging om ad hoc in o -
mal
scanning by he chie execu i e
o
egula o mal
analysis
by
specialis unc ions, he limi a ions
o
a mail-
ed
ques ionnai e we e acknowledged
and
i was accep ed
ha a meaning ul pe spec i e could only be added h ough
in-dep h discussion wi h execu i es
and
planning manage s.
Objec i es
The esea ch objec i es we e:
To de e mine he ex en
o
he use
o
en i onmen al
analysis in Sou h A ican companies, his being seen
as pa
o
he o e all planning p ocess, and
o es ablish how he en i onmen al analysis
is
in-
eg a ed in o he planning p ocess
and
e en ually in-
o he managemen cul u e
o
he company.
(O he objec i es we e included bu all ou side he scope
o his pape .)
The ques ionnai e was sen
o
ISO
lis ed companies
chosen on a sys ema ic sampling basis, ha
is
he o al
numbe
o
lis ed companies di ided by he sample equi ed
(4S0/150) mean
ha
e e y ou h company was selec ed
om he alphabe ical index. This ga e a o al
o
135
and
a u he
15
we e andomly included. The use
o
an
alphabe ical index ensu ed
ha
no
bias by ype
o
indus y
was
possible. A o al
o
35
ques ionnai es we e e u ned
o which
31
(20,670/o) we e usable. The salien indings
o
he su ey we e:
Findings o ques ionnai e su ey
No o mal planning depa men
A o al
o
21
(67,70/o)
o
companies had
no
o mal plan-
ning
depa men o pe son assigned o a planning ole.
While he au ho s concluded
ha
his did no necessa ily
indica e ha companies wi hou a speci ically assigned
planning ask a e
poo
planne s, he planning ask does
equi e specialis skills,
and
insu icien esou ces
o
ene gy
de o ed o he planning unc ion could lead o poo plan-
ning.
The planning unc ion in he majo i y
o
hese com-
panies
(61
OJo)
was ca ied
ou
by he chie execu i e o ice
o he chie inancial o ice indi idually o oge he .
Subsequen ly only
one
o
hese companies had i s
ma ke ing pe sonnel in ol ed in he planning p ocess.
Planning ocus
Companies wi h a o mal planning unc ion u ilized a mean
planning ime ho izon
o
4,4 yea s
and
hose wi hou had
a
mean
o
3,9 yea s. Gene ally he ocus
o
mos o mal
planning was
on
he inancial aspec s
o
he i m, wi h he
i e
mos popula planning componen s as shown
in
Table
3.
En i onmen al analysis
En i onmen al analysis a ed ai ly poo ly, wi h only
17
companies
(SSO/o
o
he su ey) ca ying ou any ype
o
en i onmen al analysis.
O
hese,
10
we e among hose
wi hou a o mal planning unc ion. The ime ho izon was
3,05
yea s, conside ably sho e han o p ojec ed capi al
llS
Table 3
The
mos popula planning componen s
ll!o
Time ho izon
Planning componen
o
companies mean alue in yea s
I. P ojec ed cash lows
90
3,32
2. P ojec ed income
s a emen s
90
3,S9
3. P ojec ed capi al
in es men s
87
3,88
4.
P ojec ed
balance
shee s
84
2,96
s.
Re iew
o
pas
pe o mance
77
1,88
in es men s. The au ho s su mised ha
in
a dynamic en-
i onmen , analysis ime ho izon may be necessa ily sho .
En i onmen al sec o s analysed
The mac o en i onmen
is
depic ed in e ms
o
a diag am
made up
o
six en i onmen al sec o s impac ing on an in-
dus y and on indi idual companies (see Figu e
1).
Responden s we e asked o wha ex en hei companies
analysed each en i onmen al sec o (see Table 4).
The economic en i onmen
is
he mos commonly
analysed sec o .
O
he
31
companies ha esponded, 29
ei he analyse o analyse
in
de ail he economic en i on-
men . Compa ed wi h he economic, physical, social and
echnological en i onmen s, he poli ical and ins i u-
ional/legal en i onmen s ecei e ela i ely li le analy ical
a en ion. Clea ly i ms wi h o mal planning unc ions
ha e inc eased awa eness
o
en i onmen al analysis as a
whole, and he e o e we e mo e likely o analyse each
sec-
o , whe eas hose i ms no analysing a pa icula sec o
usually dis ega ded his sec o because hey el
i
was no
ele an o hei pa icula indus y.
Sou ces
o
in o ma ion used o he pu poses
o
he en-
i onmen al analysis
we e
a ied bu he mos popula we e
(in descending o de
o
popula i y)
Comme cial bank epo s
Depa men
o
S a is ics
Bu eau o Economic Resea ch
T ade jou nals
Social
en i onmen
Poli ical
en i onmen
Economic
en i onmen
Indus y
Company
lns i u ional/l..8gal
en i onmen
Physical
en i onmen
Technological
en i onmen
Flp e
Six
en i onmen al sec o s impac ing on indus y and companies
116
S.-A . Tydsk . Bed y sl.
1982,
13(3)
Table 4 Analysis o six en i onmen al sec o s
Analysed in de ail Analysed No analysed
Numbe
o
esponden s Numbe
o
esponden s Numbe
o
esponden s
Companies Companies Companies Companies Companies Companies
wi h wi hou wi h wi hou wi h wi hou
En i onmen al planning planning
OJo
o
planning planning
OJo
o
planning planning
OJo
o
sec o unc ion unc ion o al unc ion unc ion o al unc ion unc ion o al
Economic 3 6
29
Physical 2 s
23
Technological 4 4
26
Ins i u ional/legal 0 3
Poli ical 0 1 3
Social 2
10
Time
ho izons
I was clea om he esponse ha mos companies do
undenake o mal planning e en hough no specialis s may
ha e
been
appoin ed o ha unc ion.
These
o mal plans
a e s ill being o mula ed in he mys ical
i e
yea ime
ame which migh indica e he limi a ions
o
he un-
sophis ica ed na u e
o
he en i onmen al analysis. (Only
one i m indica ed any le el
o
sophis ica ion, his being
an in-house econome ic model.)
I
companies we e o make be e use
o
hose a ailable
sou ces
o
in o ma ion ha cas a b oade ne wi h longe
ime ho izons, hei analyses and planning would be a
mo e e ec i e.
Findings
on
15
companies in e iewed
As al eady s a ed, i was el ha he limi ed na u e
o
a
ques ionnai e would na ow he sea ch, so a u he
15
companies we e in e iewed. I was appa en ha he com-
panies selec ed we e no ep esen a i e
o
he ea lie sam-
ple
o
quo ed companies, bu a he ep esen ed some
o
he mo e ad anced companies in e ms
o
co po a e plan-
ning. The companies in e iewed a e shown by business
sec o in Table
5.
Table 5 Companies in e iewed,
by
business
sec o
Business sec o
Indus ial/Conglome a e
Oil/Ene gy
Se ice
Cons uc ion
Re ail
Mo o
Numbe
o
companies
4
4
4
I was ound ha a signi ican p opo ion
o
hese com-
panies (nine) p ac ise wha
we
e med low-le el en-
i onmen al analysis. This usually in ol ed
an
annual en-
i onmen al analysis as a p elude o he planning p ocess.
As wi h he ea lie sample, he en i onmen al analysis
e ol es a ound he economic and indus ial en i onmen s
including he pa ame e s
o
he demand unc ion and likely
7
7
6
7
8
7
13
6S
0 2 6
9
S2
7
26
II
ss
0 6
19
9
S2
11
39
13
68
2 7
29
IS
71
2 4
19
compe i i e esponses. Usually a single iew
o
he u u e
en i onmen
is
de eloped and used
as
a amewo k o
he
plan. Senio execu i es, subsidia y managemen and
di i-
sional manage s
do
no ge in ol ed un il p esen ed
wi h
he inal epo on he depa men s' o indi idual's
indings.
Mo e ad anced en i onmen al analysis
Six companies p ac ised a mo e ad anced le el
o
en-
i onmen al analysis. Fi s , line manage s a e in ol ed o
a g ea e deg ee in he en i onmen al analysis. Second,
senio execu i es a e in ol ed on
an
on-going basis
as
he
en i onmen al analysis
is
seen as a cen al aspec
o
he
planning p ocess. This seems
o
inc ease he sensi i i y o
hese execu i es o he issues and ends de eloping
in
he
en i onmen , and
is
likely
o
de elop
an
oppo unis ic
u u e-o ien ed ou look.
As a gene al obse a ion, he in e iews demons a ed
ha he le el
o
en i onmen al analysis
is
ela ed o
he
sophis ica ion
o
he planning p ocess. No companies
in-
e iewed p esen ed e idence
o
an
ad anced en i onmen-
al analysis p ocedu e a e showing ha hei planning
p ocess was ough
and
eady. A common commen
om
he planne s in e iewed was
ha
he le el
o
he
en-
i onmen al analysis should be ela ed o he
le el
o
he
planning p ocess
i
i
is
o
gain he in e es and pa icipa-
ion
o
line manage s and s a egic decision-make s. I he
co ec weigh ing
is
no main ained, he decision-make
is
likely o ejec he en i onmen al analysis as being beyond
he scope
o
his pe cep ion, business unc ion
o
con ex .
In eg a ion
o
analysis
In eg a ion
o
he en i onmen al analysis akes place a
wo le els: i s in he minds
o
he s a egic decision-
make s as
pan
o
hei knowledge and cogni i e p ocesses
when de eloping plans and s a egies; second, as a w i -
en elemen
o
he planning documen . The mos impo -
an aspec
is
he in eg a ion
o
in o ma ion and implica-
ions o he business which low om he en i onmen al
analysis as unde s ood and used by he decision-make ·
Some co po a e planne s ind hemsel es us a ed
by
he
scan a en ion paid
o
he en i onmen al analysis and
i s
applica ion
o
he de elopmen
o
s a egy. I is clea ha
S.A .
J. Bus. Mgm 1982 13(3)
oducing documen s a conside able cos , which a e hen
p
o ed
is
a a uous exe cise. One
o
he companies
in
pa -
1gn
, .
icula s ood ou because hey had a ela i ely un~e eloped
i onmen al analysis p ocess, bu h ough di ec
and
en
. . h' h d
eaning ul access
o
he chie execu i e
1s
p ocess a
: majo impac on s a egy. This c~n~ as ed wi h hose
mpanies which had de eloped soph1s 1ca ed sys ems ha
co
k'
did
no di ec ly impac
on
he s a egy-ma mg p ocess.
conclusion
While
mos
o
he jou nals
and
ex s would see he en-
i onmen al analysis as an in eg al pa
o
he planning
; ocess, he majo i y
o
companies su eyed ca i~d ou
ei he
ow-le el
o limi ed en i onmen al analyses, wi h
ew
p oducing any hing like he comp ehensi ely esea ched
epo s isualized
by
mos au ho s. Those ha do p oduce
such
epo s o en ha e di icul y
in
in eg a ing he in-
dings
on he annual planning p ocess.
On
he o he hand,
companies wi h low le el en i onmen al analy ical p o-
cedu es
seemed o ind i easie o in eg a e en i onmen-
al
analysis wi h he planning p ocess. The au ho s could
only
conclude ha managemen in many Sou h A ican
i ms
a p esen do no see he need o ull-scale en-
i onmen al analysis as being a high p io i y i em.
Based
on he
au ho s'
exposu e o he manage s con-
duc ing
co po a e planning
and
exposu e o he echniques
and
p ocedu es used in co po a e planning, i
is
clea ha
a conside able deg ee
o
conce n exis s abou he impac
117
o
en i onmen al dynamics on co po a e s a egy. The p o-
blems seem o be, i s ly, o de elop manageable p o-
cedu es and, secondly, o in eg a e hese in o he men al
mind maps
o
bo h he planne s and line managemen . A
endency exis s o line manage s and planne s o sh ink
back and a oid he mo e unpleasan aspec s and he ho -
nie p oblems unco e ed h ough en i onmen al analysis.
This
is
possibly owing o he con o e sial na u e
o
hese
issues and o he di icul ies in e ms
o
ansla ing hei
impac on he co po a e s a egy in o meaning ul and ac-
cep able e ms.
In conclusion, he au ho s belie e ha he mac o en-
i onmen
is
likely o impose nume ous s a egic issues ha
business
will
ha e o conside
in
he medium- o long- e m
u u e
o
he Sou h A ican economy. I
is
impe a i e ha
indi idual businesses and he business communi y as a
whole e ec i ely deal wi h hese issues.
Re e ences
I.
Kahn, H. & Wei e ,
A.J.
The
Yea
2000.
London: Macmillan,
1967.
2.
Bell,
D.
The Coming
o
Pos -Indus ial Socie y.
New
Yo k: Basic
Books,
1973.
3.
D ucke ,
P.
Managing
in
Tu bulen Times. London: Pan Books,
1981. p.9.
4. Fahey, L. & King,
R.
En i onmen al scanning o co po a e plan-
ning, Bus. Ho izons, Augus 1977, Vol.20, No.4, p.71.
S.
Thomas,
P.
En i onmen al scanning -The s a e
o
he a .
Long Range Planning, Feb ua y 1980, Vol.13, p.24.
_________