Kohne , Di k
P ep in
Na iga ing Ri al ies: P ospec s o Coexis ence be ween
ECOWAS and AES in Wes A ica
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kohne , Di k (2024) : Na iga ing Ri al ies: P ospec s o Coexis ence be ween
ECOWAS and AES in Wes A ica, Zenodo, Genè e,
h ps://doi.o g/10.5281/zenodo.12809184 ,
h ps://zenodo.o g/ eco ds/12809184
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/300869
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1
Na iga ing Ri al ies: P ospec s o Coexis ence be ween
ECOWAS and AES in Wes A ica
Di k Kohne
1
Ca oon: Mali-Bu kina-Nige : om spli o ede a ion ?
Sou ce: © Damien Glez, Jeune A ique, 16 Feb ua y 2024
Abs ac : The Alliance o Sahel S a es (AES), c ea ed in Sep embe 2023 by he h ee mili a y
go e nmen s o Mali, Nige and Bu kina Faso as a coun e weigh o ECOWAS and he pos -
colonial in luence o F ance and o he Wes e n coun ies, announced he c ea ion o a
con ede a ion o i s h ee coun ies in July 2024. The AES ha e mo e in common han he o he
coun ies o he Sahel. Fi s , hey a e he cen e o he Sahel and mos ulne able o jihadism.
They igu e among he leas de eloped coun ies, wi h 40% o 50% o he popula ion li ing in
po e y. They a e also landlocked coun ies wi h as dese a eas, making hem mo e
ulne able o clima e change. Finally, hey a e he coun ies wi h he highes popula ion g ow h
in he Sahel, wi h an a e age o six child en pe woman. The c ea ion o he AES came amid a
decade o escala ing un es in he Sahel, uelled by he a e ma h o he NATO-led in e en ion
in Libya in 2011. The esul ing ins abili y caused ampan a ms a icking and he ise o a med
g oups linked o al-Qaeda and he Islamic S a e. The Sahel egion accoun s o a s agge ing
43% o global e o is dea hs, mo e han Sou h Asia, he Middle Eas and No h A ica
combined. AES coun e insu gency ope a ions will ocus on he Lip ako-Gou ma egion, he
as and po ous bo de a ea whe e he h ee s a es mee , a bo de land no o ious o i s
ins abili y. P e ious leade s ha e o en pu F ench in e es s ahead o hose o hei own people,
allowing he con inued exploi a ion o he egion's na u al esou ces, including u anium, gold
and manganese, wi hou much bene i o he local popula ion. In he ace o c i ical commen s
om he AU abou he AES coun ies' exi om ECOWAS, he o me ejec ed any in e e ence
in hei in e nal a ai s. The AES con ede a ion will expand he ope a ional space o he jun a
alliance and consolida e i s mili a y and economic pa ne ship wi h Russia and China, as well as
Tu key and I an. Howe e , he AES secession unde mines he legi imacy o ECOWAS by
hinde ing egional economic and secu i y in eg a ion and u he complica ing he e u n o
democ a iza ion. The con ede a ion will seek o abso b new membe s such as Chad, Guinea and
Sudan o u he s eng hen i s powe and legi imacy as an al e na i e egional bloc. Howe e , a
di ided Sahel will make ackling egional challenges e en mo e di icul . I he AES we e o
eplace he CFA anc wi h i s own cu ency, as announced, and o he F ancophone coun ies in
he UEMOA we e o ollow sui , his would equi e a undamen al es uc u ing o bo h he
UEMOA and ECOWAS and inally also call in o ques ion he in oduc ion o he ECO, he new
common Wes A ican cu ency, planned o 2027.
Keywo ds: Alliance o Sahel S a es, Wes A ica, Sahel, ECOWAS, UEMOA, Jihadism,
Decoloniza ion, Na ionalism, So e eign y, Sus ainable de elopmen , good go e nance, CFA anc,
Mali, Nige , Bu kina Faso, Guinea, Nige ia, F ance, Russia, China
JEL-Code: F15, F35, F52, F53, F54, H77, N17, N47, O17, O55, Z13
1
Di k Kohne , associa ed expe , GIGA-Ins i u e o A ican A ai s, Hambu g. D a : 25 July 2024
2
1. In oduc ion
Ca oon 2: ‘When hose suspended ( om ECOWAS)
suspend hei pa icipa ion (in ECOWAS)’
2
Sou ce: © Damien Glez, Jeune A ique, 29 Janua y 2024
Since he mili a y coup d'é a o Lieu enan Gene al Mamady Doumbouya in Guinea on 5
Sep embe 2021, a wa e o coups has swep h ough he Sahel in Wes e n A ica. The
coup plo e s and mili a y leade s o Mali (Assimi Goï a, 2021), Bu kina Faso (Ib ahim
T ao é, 2022) and Nige (Abdou ahamane Tchiani, 2023) ollowed sui . The coups ha e
been s ongly condemned by Wes A ica’s egional economic and poli ical o ganisa ion
ECOWAS as well as he A ican Union (AU) and he in e na ional communi y. When
ECOWAS leade , he Nige ian P esiden Bola Tinubu, h ea ened o in e ene by o ce, he
h ee mili a y egimes o Bu kina Faso, Mali and Nige decided o es ablish a new egional
o ganisa ion, he Alliance o Sahel S a es (Alliance des É a s du Sahel, AES) o de end
hemsel es. By o ging close ies and e en seeking o join BRICS, hese coun ies
exp essed hei desi e o genuine independence and sel -de e mina ion. These ambi ions
e lec ed no jus a egional ealignmen , bu a b oade e o o disman le he es iges o
colonial exploi a ion and build a u u e whe e A ican na ions con ol hei own esou ces
and des inies (Bailey, 2024).
G aph 1: ASE (CES) s. ECOWAS Coun ies in Wes A ica ?
Sou ce: © Ka , 2024
2
The ca oon shows he cu en P esiden o Nige ia and Chai men o ECOWAS, Bola Tinubu, who cau ions he
AES, ep esen ed by he h ee mili a y leade s o Mali, Nige and Bu kina Faso, Assimi Goï a, Abdou ahamane
Tchiani, and Ib ahim T ao é.
3
In ac , hese coun ies ha e mo e in common han he o he coun ies o he Sahel. Fi s ly,
hey a e he cen e o he Sahel and he mos ulne able o jihadism. They a e among he
leas de eloped coun ies, wi h 40 % and 50 % o he popula ion li ing in po e y. They
a e also landlocked coun ies wi h as dese a eas, making hem mo e ulne able o
clima e change. Finally, hey a e he coun ies wi h he highes popula ion g ow h in he
Sahel, wi h an a e age o six child en pe woman (Tou e, 2024).
While ECOWAS was able o ag ee on a p o isional ansi ion plan wi h Guinea o hold
elec ions by he end o 2024, showing ha such ins umen s can be use ul (Ka , 2024), he
c isis wi hin ECOWAS deepened. On 28 Janua y 2024, he AES coun ies announced hei
wi hd awal om he egional o ganisa ion (G ü jen, 2024). The mili a y egimes c i icise
ECOWAS no only o he sanc ions imposed in he wake o he coups, which ha e now
la gely been li ed bu also o being manipula ed by F ance and o no suppo ing hem
enough in he igh agains jihadism. All h ee AES membe s a es ha e aced deadly
jihadis iolence o yea s (Le Monde & AFP, 2024).
G aph 2: i-bo de egion (Lip ako-Gou ma): Mali, Nige , Bu kina Faso
Sou ce: © Ac uNige 2022
The o ma ion o he AES comes amid a decade o escala ing un es in he Sahel, uelled
by he a e ma h o he 2011 Libyan mili a y in e en ion. The esul ing ins abili y has led
o ampan a ms- and human a icking and he ise o a med g oups linked o al-Qaeda
and he Islamic S a e. Acco ding o he Wilson Cen e , he Sahel accoun s o 43 % o
global e o is dea hs, mo e han Sou h Asia, he Middle Eas and No h A ica combined
(Daily News Egyp , 2024).
Fo he ime being, howe e , he AES coun ies emained in he ancophone Wes A ican
Economic and Mone a y Union (UEMOA) because hey could no quickly eplace hei
common, bu inc easingly esen ed cu ency, he Wes A ican CFA anc. The h ee jun as
also cancelled hei coope a ion wi hin he G5 Sahel alliance, c ea ed in 2014 by i e Sahel
coun ies, Bu kina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mau i ania, and Nige , o p omo e common
de elopmen and secu i y. The e o e, his alliance is cu en ly in he p ocess o dissolu ion.
D i en by g owing esen men agains he domina ion o he o me colonial powe ,
F ance, as well as o he Wes e n coun ies, he jun as cancelled all mili a y assis ance
ag eemen s wi h Wes e n powe s and expelled he emaining con ingen s o Wes e n
oops, including he UN o ce MINUSMA, es ablished in 2023 o comba Islamis
4
e o is s in Mali. On 6 July 2024 he jun as ounded he Con ede a ion o Sahel S a es
(CES) aimed a deepening hei b eak wi h ECOWAS and s eng hening hei domes ic and
egional c edibili y (Ka , 2024).
In luenced by cu en geopoli ical de elopmen s, including he g owing in luence o
Russia (Kohne , 2022b), China, I an and Tu key (Kohne , 2023a), con adic ions wi hin
ECOWAS ha e been simme ing al eady o qui e some ime. In pa icula , a g owing
esen men agains he pos -colonial ne wo k o F ança ique, which is s ill e y much
ali e, despi e nume ous decla a ions by F ench p esiden s o he con a y (Kohne , 2022a).
Di e ences o e planned poli ical ansi ions o ci ilian cons i u ional ule also led o a
g owing ejec ion by he jun as o egional and in e na ional ies seen as enc oaching on
hei so e eign y (Ox o d Analy ica, 2024a). New p ocesses o na ion-building we e
unde way, inspi ed by calls o he in eg a ion o he ' i al o ces o he na ion' ( o ces
i es de la na ion), a concep o en in oked in hese coun ies (G ü jen, 2024) since he
ad en o So e eign Na ional Con e ences in ancophone Sub-Saha an A ica, o ganized
by he social d i ing o ces o Sub-Saha an A ica’s (SSA) na ions (Benin, Togo, DR-
Congo) in he ea ly 1990s. Bu widesp ead po e y in he AES Sahel s a es, all h ee o
which we e among he wo ld's 10 coun ies wi h he lowes Human De elopmen Index
(HDI) in 2021, as well as he con inuing h ea o Islamis e o ism will unde mine he
Wes A ican jun a's s anding and coo dina ion in he medium and long e m (Ox o d
Analy ica, 2024b).
G aph 3: Sala i-Jihadi a ea o ope a ions in he Sahel (as o June 2024)
3
No e: ‘JNIM’ is Jama’a Nus a al Islam wa al Muslimeen. ‘ISSP’ is Islamic S a e Sahel P o ince.
Sou ce: © Ka , 2024
The AES s a es ha e epea edly c i icized ECOWAS o i s inac ion on egional secu i y
issues. Insu gen s linked o al-Qaeda and he Islamic S a e g oup ha e o yea s ca ied ou
a acks in he as ‘ i-bo de ’ egion Lip ako–Gou ma be ween Nige , Mali and Bu kina
Faso, despi e he massi e deploymen o an i-jihadis o ces. Howe e , up o ea ly July
2024, he AES has only ca ied ou one such ope a ion since Ma ch, when Bu kinabe and
Nige ien soldie s conduc ed join pa ols o e a week in ea ly June o secu e a segmen o
he N3 oad in no he n Bu kina Faso. Howe e , he AES has con inued coo dina ing
3
Map by Liam Ka , C i ical Th ea s P ojec s a he Ame ican En e p ise Ins i u e, 10 July 2024; © Liam Ka ;
A med Con lic Loca ion and E en Da a P ojec .
5
d one s ikes ac oss he bo de s o i s membe s a es’ e i o ies, which ha e been
commonplace since he incep ion o he AES (Ka , 2024).
One o he ho issues ha ASE and ECOWAS will ha e o add ess is he ee mo emen o
goods and people. Un il now, he ECOWAS passpo has allowed Malians, Nige ians and
Bu kinabé o mo e eely wi hin he sub- egion, ee o cus oms du ies wi hin a common
ma ke . The AES coun ies a e igh ing o main ain his ad an age, belie ing ha he
ein oduc ion o isas would be an amoun o ‘blackmailing he popula ion’, as
Abdoulaye Diop, Mali's cu en Minis e o Fo eign A ai s and In e na ional Coope a ion,
poin ed ou . Ano he issue o con lic is he ac i a ion o ECOWAS as a egional o ce o
comba e o ism. This would be p oblema ic, as any in e en ion by ECOWAS on ASE
e i o y would be s ongly opposed, no leas because ECOWAS is also supposed o
in e ene in he e en o uncons i u ional changes (Rich, 2024).
In e ms o ex e nal ela ions, including o eign ade and mili a y coope a ion, Moscow
has been he p ima y secu i y gua an o o he AES, bu i has also used hese ies o
expand coope a ion in non-mili a y a eas. Russia has had nea ly 2,000 soldie s ha a e pa
o he Wagne G oup, enamed ‘A ica Co ps’ in 2023, in Mali, oughly 200 in Bu kina
Faso, and a leas ano he 100 in Nige (Cze ep & B yjka, 2024; Ka , 2024). The
me cena y oops in Malian a e in ol ed in o ensi e ope a ions, while he Bu kinabe and
Nige con ingen s a e mainly aining local o ces and p o ec ing jun a leade s. In addi ion,
nume ous Russian p i a e and s a e companies ha e signed se e al ag eemen s and
memo anda o unde s anding wi h he AES s a es since Sep embe 2023 on ci il nuclea
coope a ion, mili a y- echnical coope a ion, mining o na u al esou ces, cons uc ion o
gold e ine ies and elecommunica ions (Ka , 2024).
G aph 4: AES join ope a ions 2023 - 2024
4
Sou ce: © Ka , 2024
While Russian economic coope a ion wi h he AES coun ies has been ela i ely limi ed o
da e, China has been a leading economic pa ne o he AES s a es, as China has been
willing o wo k wi h he jun as o expand i s exis ing in es men s, pa icula ly in Mali and
4
Map by Liam Ka , C i ical Th ea s P ojec s a he Ame ican En e p ise Ins i u e, 7 Ma ch 2024; © Liam Ka ;
A med Con lic Loca ion and E en Da a P ojec .
6
Nige (Fo eign A ai s Commi ee, 2022; Ka , 2024). Chinese s a e-owned companies
ha e in es ed in c ude oil, u anium, and sola powe p ojec s ac oss he AES (Nyabiage,
2024; Ka , 2024). The Nige ien jun a also signed an ag eemen in Ma ch 2024 wi h a
Chinese s a e-owned company o ecei e a US$400 million ad ance on i s sha e o u u e
oil sales h ough he new Chinese-buil Nige –Benin Oil Pipeline, a 1,950 km long c ude
oil pipeline connec ing oil ields nea he oasis o Agadem in he Téné é dese in Nige o
he A lan ic Ocean Nige o he A lan ic Ocean a he po o Sémè K aké, eas o Co onou
nea he bo de c ossing wi h Nige ia (Balima, 2024; Ka , 2024). Expo s h ough he
pipeline began in May 2024 (Cascais, 2024).
Also, Tu key is a leading secu i y pa ne o he AES. Fo example, all coun ies ely on
Tu kish Bay ak a TB2 d ones and ha e close pe sonal con ac s in he Tu kish de ence
indus y (Tü kiye Today, 2024; 2024a; Ka , 2024; Kohne , 2023a; A ms ong, 2021).
Tu kish- unded Sy ian me cena ies also began ope a ing in a leas Nige and possibly
Bu kina Faso in 2024 o p o ec key economic si es in which he Tu kish go e nmen has a
s ake, such as mines. These Tu kish p oxy mili ias ha e a ho i ic human igh s eco d
going back mo e han a decade (Ka , 2024; Fe nandez, 2024).
Las bu no leas , I an is looking o sub-Saha an A ica o s eng hen i s economic,
poli ical and ideological ies in he egion. Al eady in 2008, i es ablished o example
ex a e i o ial ood p oduc ion o I an in Uganda and Senegal o g ow oilseeds and o he
c ops (Lob, 2023). Since he o ma ion o he AES coali ion, I an has also shown
inc easing in e es in economic and de ence coope a ion wi h hese pa ne s (I anian
Minis y o Fo eign A ai s, 2024). The F ench and US media also specula ed abou
nego ia ions be ween I an and Nige o sell u anium o weapons (Ka , 2024).
As o ASE’s Wes A ican pa ne s, Senegal will con inue o ha e bila e al ela ions wi h
Mali, which uses he po o Daka . I will be he same wi h Bu kina Faso and Nige , whe e
he e a e impo an Senegalese communi ies, and ice e sa. The same holds o Cô e
d'I oi e, Benin and Togo because hey p o ide he po s and ansi - ou es o he
landlocked ASE coun ies (Rich, 2024).
The ongoing media ion by Senegal's P esiden Bassi ou Diomaye Faye and Togo’s P esiden
Fau e Gnassingbé o ein eg a e he ASE in o ECOWAS will, i a all, only succeed in he
medium e m, his is i he ASE could conside e u ning o he economic old o he
o ganisa ion. Bu his will happen only i ECOWAS abandons i s poli ical aspec , e.g.
democ a ic go e nance (Rich, 2024). A he momen , he posi ions a e so a apa ha his
mission is di icul o e en impossible (Abba, 2024).
7
2. P ospec s o de elopmen o ECOWAS wi hou AES
coun ies
Ca oon 4: Mali, Bu kina Faso and Nige (AES), will hey successi ely lea e
ECOWAS, AU and UEMOA a Pu in's ins iga ion?
Sou ce: © Le ega d de Glesz, Damien Glez; i- ul ulde mandenkan, 2 Feb ua y 2024
G aph 5: Map o ECOWAS and secessionis ASE membe coun ies
Sou ce: © AFP; ISS, Ins i u e o Secu i y S udies, P e o ia, 9 Augus 2023
The his o y o he Economic Communi y o Wes A ican S a es (ECOWAS; CEDEAO in
F ench and Po uguese) da es back o colonial imes and he i al y be ween F ancophone
and Anglophone Wes A ica, domina ed by esou ce- ich Nige ia, he s onges and mos
populous SSA coun y a e Sou h A ica. The ECOWAS is a egional poli ical and
economic union o i een Wes A ican membe coun ies. Once, i was also a mili a y
o ce o be eckoned wi h wi hin Wes A ica. Wi hin he amewo k o i s missions, i
8
implemen ed con lic p e en ion and esolu ion mechanisms ou lined in he ECOWAS
Con lic P e en ion F amewo k (ECPF). I was mean o deal wi h p oblems, c ises and
con lic s ha ha e bo h poli ical and economic causes. To achie e i s objec i es,
ECOWAS has o ely on i s membe s a es. Howe e , he la e we e mos ly cha ac e ised
by a lack o poli ical and inancial commi men (Nadieline, 2016). To ully play i s ole as
gua dian o he p inciples o democ a ic go e nance and espec o human igh s,
ECOWAS could only ha e a decisi e impac i i we e accompanied by a signi ican and
immedia e in es men in e ms o human and inancial esou ces, which in mos cases we e
e y limi ed (Yabi, 2010).
The wi hd awal o h ee ASE membe coun ies, which is wi hou p eceden in he his o y
o ECOWAS, could ha e a - eaching implica ions, no only o ASE coun ies, bu also
o all he o he coun ies in he egion, in e ms o he mobili y o goods and people, ade,
and egional sec o al policies (Balima, S., 2024). In he medium and long e m, hei exi
could lead o a ede ini ion o economic ela ions in Wes A ica, equi ing signi ican
adjus men s a na ional, egional, and ex a- egional le els. The success ul implemen a ion
o a pos -ECOWAS economic s a egy will depend on he capaci y o s eng hen hei
economic esilience. Indeed, in an icipa ion o a spillo e o Islamic e o ism in o he Gul
o Guinea, he coas al coun ies should es ablish ela ions wi h he AES bloc o pu poses
o in o ma ion sha ing and join ope a ional engagemen . Gi en he e i o ial con inui y
be ween he wo blocs and he na u e o he h ea , he e is a need o dialogue and a ge ed
coope a ion in he a ea o secu i y. Fu u e peace and s abili y in he sub- egion will depend
on he abili y o he blocs o in e ac (Balima, S., 2024).
Economically, he wi hd awal o he AES could end o hal p ojec s and p og ammes
implemen ed by he ECOWAS Commission in hese h ee coun ies. Acco ding o Oma
Tou ay, p esiden o he ECOWAS commission, hese p ojec s a e wo h mo e han
US$500 million. I would also pose challenges o coope a ion wi h egional inancial
ins i u ions such as EBID and BOAD (Dossa i, 2024).
By ocusing on egional in eg a ion, ha nessing economic po en ial and add essing social
and poli ical challenges, ECOWAS can achie e subs an ial de elopmen esul s e en
wi hou he pa icipa ion o AES coun ies. O e all, he p ospec s o ECOWAS
de elopmen wi hou he AES coun ies emain posi i e, p o ided he e is a conce ed
e o o enhance egional coope a ion, add ess secu i y and poli ical challenges, and in es
in key sec o s ha d i e sus ainable g ow h.
ECOWAS membe s include some o he as es -g owing economies in A ica, such as
Nige ia, Ghana and Cô e d'I oi e. These coun ies a e cha ac e ized by di e si ied
economies wi h signi ican con ibu ions om sec o s such as oil, gas and hyd opowe ,
ag icul u e and se ices, which a e d i e s o egional g ow h. Excluding he AES
coun ies would allow mo e esou ces and policies o be ocused on inc easing he
no o iously low le el o in a- egional ade among he emaining ECOWAS membe s,
which emains in he o de o 15 % o 20 % (Abba, 2024). This could boos local
indus ies, c ea e jobs and educe dependence on ex e nal ma ke s. Con inued in es men
in egional in as uc u e, such as anspo co ido s and ene gy p ojec s, will be c ucial.
Imp o ed in as uc u e would acili a e ade and in es men wi hin he egion.
Howe e , poli ical s abili y and a signi ican inc ease in he willingness o coope a e on he
pa o poli ical leade s, who ha e so a been mo e conce ned wi h hei own ca ee s,
would be essen ial o economic de elopmen . In es ing in educa ion, heal hca e, and
social se ices is i al o sus ainable and inclusi e de elopmen . P og ams aimed a
15
5. Conclusion
Ca oon 7: 'Se ling o sco es in Wes A ica’
8
Sou ce: © RFI / Damien Glez, Glez, 2024
The 15 membe coun ies o he Economic Communi y o Wes A ican S a es (ECOWAS),
he eigh F ancophone Wes A ican Economic and Mone a y Union (WAEMU / UEMOA)
and he h ee membe coun ies o he newly o med Alliance o Sahel S a es (AES) ep esen
h ee o e lapping egional o ganisa ions in Wes A ica, each wi h unique manda es and
membe ship. The geopoli ical, economic and secu i y con ex o he egion highligh s he
need o syne gy and coope a ion in add essing egional issues.
ECOWAS has long been a key playe in p omo ing economic in eg a ion and poli ical
s abili y in he egion. O e he yea s, ECOWAS has played a pi o al ole in con lic
esolu ion, democ a ic ansi ions, and egional economic policies. Es ablished in 2023 by
Bu kina Faso, Mali and Nige , he AES aims o add ess new p ocesses o na ion-building,
inspi ed by calls o he in eg a ion o ' i al o ces o he na ion' and speci ic secu i y conce ns
in he Sahel. UEMOA will su i e in he medium and long un only i he AES objec i e o
c ea ing a new AES cu ency as a sou ce o g ea e au onomy and sel -de e mina ion mee s
he i al in e es s o UEMOA’s wo hea yweigh s, Cô e d'I oi e and Senegal, and i i
succeeds in inding a iable ins i u ion o eplace he F ench T easu y, which has hi he o
gua an eed he s abili y o he cu ency.
The AES was es ablished in 2023 by Bu kina Faso, Mali and Nige o add ess he speci ic
secu i y challenges o he Sahel egion. The egion has been se e ely a ec ed by Islamis
e o ism, a med con lic and humani a ian c ises. The AES aims o coo dina e mili a y
e o s, enhance secu i y coope a ion and s abilise he egion h ough a ge ed in e en ions,
in elligence sha ing and capaci y building o s abilise he egion. The secession om
ECOWAS highligh s he g owing i be ween he Wes e n-allied elec ed go e nmen s in
Wes A ica and mili a y- un coun ies inc easingly elying on Russia, China, Tu key and
I an.
Howe e , bo h ECOWAS and he AES s ill sha e a common in e es in p omo ing secu i y
and s abili y. ECOWAS's expe ience in peacekeeping and con lic esolu ion could
8
Ca oon: 'Se ling o sco es in Wes A ica’ -- Sou ce: © RFI / Damien Glez, Glez, Damien (2024) : Le ega d
de Glez su les jun es mili ai es du Sahel qui con i men leu dépa de la Cédéao. i-cul u e, 12 July 2024. -
Bola Tinubu is he cu en Nige ian P esiden ; Assimi Goï a, he Malian P esiden and Bassi ou Diomaye Faye
he Senegalese P esiden .
16
complemen he AES's ocus on coun e insu gency and localised secu i y e o s, p o ided
ha ECOWAS ede ines i sel and limi s he ex e nal in luence o o me colonial powe s.
Unde hese condi ions, he coexis ence o he wo ins i u ions has conside able po en ial o
imp o ing secu i y, s abili y and de elopmen in Wes A ica. While challenges exis ,
s a egic coope a ion and coo dina ion can ans o m hese o ganisa ions in o complemen a y
o ces. By le e aging hei espec i e s eng hs and p omo ing inclusi e dialogue, ECOWAS
and he AES can c ea e a esilien and de elopmen -o ien a ed Wes A ican egion.
Economic s abili y is essen ial o long- e m peace. ECOWAS ini ia i es on ade
libe alisa ion, in as uc u e de elopmen and egional in eg a ion can suppo AES e o s o
s abilise he Sahel. Join p ojec s in ag icul u e, ene gy and educa ion could os e economic
esilience and educe he oo causes o insecu i y. Recu en se e e humani a ian c ises in he
Sahel, including displacemen , ood insecu i y and heal h challenges igge mig a ion, i s
wi hin Wes A ica, hen o he Magh eb, and inally o he EU. ECOWAS's b oade egional
app oach can p o ide a amewo k o add essing hese issues in collabo a ion wi h AES. Las
bu no leas , he de elopmen o s a egic pa ne ships and coope a ion ag eemen s be ween
ECOWAS and he AES can help o ins i u ionalise he coope a ion.
Howe e , di e ences in membe s a es' poli ical agendas and alliances may hinde
coope a ion. The o ma ion o he AES i sel can be seen as a esponse o he pe cei ed
inadequacies o ECOWAS in add essing Sahel-speci ic issues, which can lead o i al ies.
O e lapping ins i u ional manda es and ac i i ies can lead o ine iciencies and duplica ion.
Lack o commi men by na ional poli ical eli es o egional in eg a ion and limi ed inancial
and logis ical esou ces may also s ain bo h o ganisa ions. Compe i ion o in e na ional aid
and in es men can c ea e ic ion. Join und aising and esou ce mobilisa ion s a egies
would be one way o mi iga e his challenge.
17
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20
Résumé : [Na igue dans les i ali és : pe spec i es de coexis ence en e la CEDEAO e l’AES en
A ique de l’Oues ] - L'Alliance des É a s du Sahel (AES), ondée en sep emb e 2023 pa les ois
gou e nemen s mili ai es du Mali, du Nige e du Bu kina Faso pou ai e con epoids à la
CEDEAO e à l'in luence pos coloniale de la F ance e d'au es pays occiden aux, a annoncé en
juille 2024 la c éa ion d'une con édé a ion de ses ois pays. Les AES on plus de poin s communs
que les au es pays du Sahel. P emiè emen , ils cons i uen le cen e du Sahel e les plus ulné ables
au djihadisme. Ils on pa ie des pays les moins dé eloppés, a ec 40 à 50 % de la popula ion
i an dans la pau e é. Ce son égalemen des pays encla és do és de as es zones dése iques, ce
qui les end plus ulné ables au changemen clima ique. Ce son ap ès ou les pays où la
c oissance démog aphique es la plus o e au Sahel, a ec une moyenne de six en an s pa emme.
La c éa ion de l'AES in e ien au milieu d'une décennie de oubles c oissan s au Sahel, alimen és
pa les conséquences de l'in e en ion menée pa l'OTAN en Libye en 2011. L’ins abili é qui en
ésul e a condui à un a ic d’a mes endémique e à la mon ée de g oupes a més liés à Al-Qaïda e
à l’É a islamique. Le Sahel ep ésen e 43 % des décès e o is es dans le monde, soi plus que
l’Asie du Sud, le Moyen-O ien e l’A ique du No d éunis. Les opé a ions an i-insu ec ionnelles
de l'AES se concen e on su la égion du Lip ako-Gou ma, la as e e po euse zone on aliè e où
se encon en les ois É a s, une zone on aliè e connue pou son ins abili é. Les di igean s
p écéden s on sou en ai passe les in é ê s ançais a an ceux de leu p op e peuple e on
pe mis la pou sui e de l'exploi a ion des essou ces na u elles de la égion, no ammen l'u anium,
l'o e le manganèse, sans g and béné ice pou la popula ion locale. Face aux décla a ions c i iques
de l'UA conce nan le e ai des pays de l'AES de la CEDEAO, la p emiè e a in e di ou e
ingé ence dans leu s a ai es in é ieu es. La con édé a ion AES éla gi a la po ée opé a ionnelle de
l'alliance des jun es e consolide a leu pa ena ia mili ai e e économique a ec la Russie e la
Chine, ainsi qu'a ec la Tu quie e l'I an. Cependan , la sécession de l’AES po e a ein e à la
légi imi é de la CEDEAO en en a an l’in ég a ion économique e sécu i ai e égionale e en
compliquan enco e da an age le e ou à la démoc a isa ion. L’AES che che a à adme e de
nou eaux memb es els que le Tchad, la Guinée e le Soudan a in de en o ce da an age son
pou oi e sa légi imi é en an que bloc égional al e na i . Cependan , un Sahel di isé end a
enco e plus di icile la ésolu ion des dé is égionaux. Si l’AES, comme annoncé, emplace le anc
CFA pa sa p op e monnaie, e que d’au es pays ancophones de l’UEMOA emboî en le pas, cela
nécessi e ai une es uc u a ion ondamen ale de l’UEMOA e de la CEDEAO e en in eme e
égalemen en cause l’in oduc ion de l’ECO, la nou elle monnaie commune oues -a icaine, p é ue
pou 2027.
Zusammen assung: [Ri ali ä en meis e n: Pe spek i en ü eine Koexis enz zwischen ECOWAS
und ASE in Wes a ika] - Die Allianz de Sahels aa en (AES), die im Sep embe 2023 on den d ei
Mili ä egie ungen Malis, Nige s und Bu kina Fasos als Gegengewich zu ECOWAS und dem
pos kolonialen Ein luss F ank eichs und ande e wes liche Lände geg ünde wu de, kündig e im
Juli 2024 die G ündung eine Kon öde a ion ih e d ei Lände an. Die AES haben meh gemeinsam
als die ande en Lände de Sahelzone. E s ens sind sie das Zen um des Sahel und am an älligs en
ü Dschihadismus. Sie gehö en zu den am wenigs en en wickel en Lände n, wobei 40% bis 50 %
de Be ölke ung in A mu leben. Auße dem sind sie Binnenlände mi iesigen Wüs engebie en,
was sie an ällige ü den Klimawandel mach . Schließlich sind sie die Lände mi dem höchs en
Be ölke ungswachs um in de Sahelzone, mi du chschni lich sechs Kinde n p o F au. Die
G ündung de AES e olg e inmi en eines Jah zehn s eskalie ende Un uhen im Sahel, die du ch
die Nachwi kungen de NATO-ge üh en In e en ion in Libyen im Jah 2011 angeheiz wu den.
Die da aus esul ie ende Ins abili ä ha zu einem g assie enden Wa enhandel und dem Au s ieg
bewa ne e G uppen ge üh , die mi al-Qaida und dem Islamischen S aa in Ve bindung s ehen.
Die Sahelzone is ü e sch eckende 43 % de wel wei en Todes älle du ch Te o is en
e an wo lich, meh als in Südasien, de Nahe Os en und No da ika zusammen. Die
Au s andsbekämp ungsope a ionen de AES we den sich au die Lip ako-Gou ma Region
konzen ie en, das iesige und du chlässige G enzgebie , in dem die d ei S aa en
au einande e en, ein G enzland, das ü seine Ins abili ä be üch ig is . F ühe e S aa sche s
haben die anzösischen In e essen o denen ih es eigenen Volkes o gezogen und die o gese z e
Ausbeu ung de na ü lichen Ressou cen de Region, da un e U an, Gold und Mangan, e möglich ,
ohne dass die lokale Be ölke ung da on iel p o i ie hä e. Angesich s k i ische Äuße ungen de
AU übe den Aus i de AES-Lände aus de ECOWAS e ba en sich e s e e jede Einmischung in
ih e inne en Angelegenhei en. Die Kon öde a ion de AES wi d den ope a i en Spiel aum des
Bündnisses de Jun as e wei e n und ih e mili ä ische und wi scha liche Pa ne scha mi
Russland und China sowie de Tü kei und dem I an es igen. Die Abspal ung de AES un e g äb
alle dings die Legi imi ä de ECOWAS, indem sie die egionale Wi scha s- und
Siche hei sin eg a ion behinde und die Rückkeh zu Demok a isie ung wei e e schwe . Die
AES wi d e suchen, neue Mi gliede wie den Tschad, Guinea und den Sudan au zunehmen, um
ih e Mach und Legi imi ä als al e na i e egionale Block wei e zu s ä ken. Eine ge eil e
Sahelzone wi d die Bewäl igung egionale He aus o de ungen jedoch noch schwie ige machen.
Wenn die AES wie angekündig , den F anc CFA du ch eine eigene Wäh ung e se z , und dem
ande e ankophone Lände de UEMOA olgen wü den, wü de das eine g undlegende
Ums uk u ie ung sowohl de UEMOA als auch de ECOWAS e o de n und schließlich auch die
ü 2027 geplan e Ein üh ung des ECO, de neuen gemeinsamen wes a ikanischen Wäh ung,
wiede in F age s ellen.
