Zonon, Baba ounde I ed Pa e ne; Bou aima, Mouhamed Bayane; Chen, Chuang;
Dumo , Ko i
A icle
The impac o COVID-19 on global s ock ma ke s:
Compa a i e insigh s om de eloped, de eloping, and
egionally in eg a ed ma ke s
Economies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
MDPI – Mul idisciplina y Digi al Publishing Ins i u e, Basel
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Zonon, Baba ounde I ed Pa e ne; Bou aima, Mouhamed Bayane; Chen, Chuang;
Dumo , Ko i (2025) : The impac o COVID-19 on global s ock ma ke s: Compa a i e insigh s om
de eloped, de eloping, and egionally in eg a ed ma ke s, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI,
Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 2, pp. 1-23,
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Published: 6 Feb ua y 2025
Ci a ion: Zonon, B. I. P., Bou aima, M.
B., Chen, C., & Dumo , K. (2025). The
Impac o COVID-19 on Global S ock
Ma ke s: Compa a i e Insigh s om
De eloped, De eloping, and
Regionally In eg a ed Ma ke s.
Economies,13(2), 39. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/economies13020039
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A icle
The Impac o COVID-19 on Global S ock Ma ke s: Compa a i e
Insigh s om De eloped, De eloping, and Regionally
In eg a ed Ma ke s
Baba ounde I ed Pa e ne Zonon 1,* , Mouhamed Bayane Bou aima 2, Chuang Chen 3and Ko i Dumo 4
1School o Economics and Managemen , Sou hwes Jiao ong Uni e si y, Chengdu 610031, China
2
Sichuan College o A chi ec u al Technology, Deyang 618000, China; [email p o ec ed]
3School o Business, Uni e si y o New Sou h Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Aus alia; [email p o ec ed]
4School o Managemen and Economics, Uni e si y o Elec onic Sciences and Technology o China,
Chengdu 611731, China; [email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : This s udy examines he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on global s ock ma -
ke s by compa ing de eloped and de eloping economies, while highligh ing egional
di e ences. Using dynamic panel eg ession models, his s udy explo es he ole o
pandemic- ela ed a iables, iscal policies, and in es o sen imen in shaping ma ke
pe o mance. De eloped ma ke s, al hough highly sensi i e o in ec ions, bene i ed om
obus iscal in e en ions and ins i u ional esilience. De eloping ma ke s ace g ea e
ola ili y owing o s ingen measu es, s uc u al ulne abili ies, and limi ed iscal capaci-
ies. Regionally, Eu ope demons a ed esilience h ough coo dina ed policies, whe eas he
Ame icas expe ienced signi ican ola ili y om agmen ed esponses. A ica and pa s o
Asia encoun e ed ewe ini ial shocks bu s uggled wi h p olonged eco e y due o limi ed
inancial and ins i u ional esou ces. The indings unde sco e he impo ance o economic
in eg a ion, coo dina ed iscal and mone a y policies, and in es o sen imen manage-
men o s abilize ma ke s du ing c ises. These insigh s guide policymake s in enhancing
esilience and os e ing sus ainable economic g ow h amid u u e global dis up ions.
Keywo ds: COVID-19; pandemic; de eloped ma ke s; de eloping ma ke s; s ock e u ns
JEL Classi ica ion: F15; F42; G01; G15
1. In oduc ion
Th oughou his o y, pandemics ha e le deep economic and social sca s ha dis up
li elihoods, ade, and inancial s abili y. F om he Spanish Flu o SARS and Ebola, hese
c ises ha e eshaped economies and exposed ulne abili ies in he global ma ke s (Sampa h
e al.,2021). The COVID-19 pandemic, which eme ged in la e 2019, igge ed unp eceden ed
global economic challenges (Golds ein e al.,2021). When he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion
decla ed i a global pandemic on 11 Ma ch 2020, go e nmen s esponded wi h se e e
es ic ions o con ol he ou b eak, s alling economic ac i i ies and c oss-bo de ade in he
p ocess. Fo example, he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion epo ed a 5.3% con ac ion in global
ade olumes in 2020, and he In e na ional Labo O ganiza ion es ima ed a loss equi alen
o 255 million ull- ime jobs, illus a ing he pandemic’s dis up i e economic impac .
The in e connec edness o mode n economies, wi h igh ly linked supply chains and
inancial sys ems, mean ha he economic allou om COVID-19 was widesp ead. Many
egional blocs such as he Eu opean Union (EU) and he Associa ion o Sou heas Asian
Economies 2025,13, 39 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13020039
Economies 2025,13, 39 2 o 23
Na ions (ASEAN) ha e expe ienced dis up ions in economic coope a ion and ade lows
(del Ma ia e al.,2020). Fiscal and mone a y esponses a ied signi ican ly ac oss egions,
highligh ing s uc u al di e ences in policy lexibili y. De eloped economies, such as
he Uni ed S a es and he Eu opean Union, implemen ed expansi e iscal in e en ions,
which included s imulus packages o aling illions o dolla s, s abilizing ma ke s, and
ein o cing in es o con idence (Bake e al.,2020;Za emba e al.,2021). Howe e , in
de eloping ma ke s such as hose in ASEAN and A ica, limi ed iscal capaci y and weake
ins i u ional amewo ks es ic he e ec i eness o policy esponses, exace ba e economic
ulne abili ies, and p olong eco e y (Ozili & A un,2020).
A c i ical ac o ha ampli ies economic challenges is he in lexibili y o iscal and
mone a y policies in many ma ke s. De eloping economies, cons ained by s uc u al
ine iciencies and ex e nal dependencies, ha e s uggled o adap swi ly o he e ol ing
c isis. Fo example, Indonesia’s s ock ma ke dynamics highligh he challenges aced
by de eloping economies when in eg a ing in o global inancial sys ems, whe e limi ed
economic eedom and weake ins i u ional amewo ks hinde esilience (Robiyan o,2018;
End i e al.,2024). This con as s sha ply wi h de eloped ma ke s, whe e coo dina ed and
lexible policy amewo ks mi iga e ma ke ola ili y and accele a e eco e y (Che allie
e al.,2018). The di e ences in iscal and mone a y policies ac oss egions unde sco e he
c i ical impo ance o policy adap abili y du ing c ises, as ma ke s wi h in lexible policies
ace ex ended pe iods o ins abili y (Bekae & Ha ey,1995).
Psychological ac o s ha e also played a pi o al ole du ing he pandemic, d i ing
signi ican ma ke ins abili y. Heigh ened le els o ea and unce ain y, cap u ed h ough
indices such as he Global Fea Index (GFI) and Vola ili y Index (VIX), unde sco ed he
ou sized impac o sen imen on ma ke beha io . Fo ins ance, he VIX su ged o eco d
highs o o e 80 in Ma ch 2020, e lec ing he unp eceden ed in es o anxie y ha su passed
he 2008 global inancial c isis (Zhang e al.,2020). These sen imen -d i en luc ua ions
a e pa icula ly p onounced in less in eg a ed inancial ma ke s, whe e weak ins i u ional
amewo ks ampli y he ad e se e ec s o ea -induced ola ili y (Bou i e al.,2018;Makun,
2021). This highligh s he need o comp ehensi e app oaches o manage psychological
ac o s du ing c ises.
This s udy explo es how COVID-19 impac ed s ock ma ke e u ns in de eloped and
eme ging ma ke s, ocusing on egions cen al o global ade and inancial ne wo ks. As
indica o s o economic heal h, s ock ma ke s p o ide insigh s in o he b oade e ec s o he
pandemic on c oss-bo de ade and in es men lows (Ramelli & Wagne ,2020). This s udy
examines he ex en o which iscal esponses, go e nmen es ic ions, and psychological
ac o s helped s abilize ma ke s o exace ba ed ola ili y ac oss Eu ope, Asia, and La in
Ame ica, egions wi h dis inc economic s uc u es and le els o policy in eg a ion. Fo
ins ance, Wes A ica’s BRVM p o ides a compelling case s udy o how s uc u al ac o s
such as a ixed exchange a e egime ampli y inancial ulne abili ies du ing global c ises
(Za emba e al.,2021).
To analyze hese dynamics, his s udy employs a dynamic panel eg ession model
using s ock ma ke indices o bo h de eloped and de eloping economies. The da a
se spans Oc obe 2019 o Decembe 2021 and in eg a es mul iple a iables, including
COVID-19 in ec ion a es, go e nmen esponse s ingency, iscal policies, and in es o
sen imen indica o s, such as he Vola ili y Index (VIX) and he Global Fea Index (GFI). By
inco po a ing epidemiological, economic, and psychological a iables, his s udy p o ides
a comp ehensi e amewo k o assessing how inancial ma ke s espond o pandemics
ac oss di e se economic s uc u es.
This s udy’s indings ha e se e al impo an implica ions. Fi s , hey unde sco e
he impo ance o aligning iscal and mone a y policies wi hin egional ade ne wo ks o
Economies 2025,13, 39 3 o 23
abso b economic shocks mo e e ec i ely. Second, he esul s highligh he need o lexible
and adap i e policies ha accoun o he s uc u al di e ences be ween he de eloped
and eme ging ma ke s. Finally, he esea ch demons a es he c i ical ole o psychological
ac o s, such as ea and unce ain y, in s abilizing inancial ma ke s du ing c ises.
By p o iding a compa a i e, c oss- egional analysis o s ock ma ke beha io du ing
he COVID-19 pandemic, his s udy con ibu es o he g owing li e a u e on pandemic
economics. This unde sco es he impo ance o coo dina ed policy esponses, esilien i-
nancial sys ems, and sen imen managemen o mi iga ing he e ec s o global dis up ions.
The ollowing sec ions e iew he ele an li e a u e, p esen he me hodology and da a,
discuss empi ical indings, and p o ide p ac ical ecommenda ions o policymake s and
a enues o u u e esea ch.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
Pandemics ha e his o ically dis up ed economic sys ems, exposing weaknesses in
inancial ma ke s and e ealing dispa i ies in esilience among coun ies. The COVID-19
pandemic, unlike p e ious c ises, simul aneously induced supply and demand shocks,
posing unique challenges o economies and inancial ne wo ks (del Ma ia e al.,2020). These
shocks included dis up ions o global supply chains, educed labo o ce pa icipa ion,
and sha p declines in consume demand, as documen ed by Baldwin and Mau o (2020)
and McKibbin and Fe nando (2023). The compounded na u e o hese shocks magni ied
hei impac on s ock ma ke s, which se ed as c i ical indica o s o economic heal h and
policy e ec i eness wi hin egional blocs. Economic in eg a ion, in which coun ies align
policies o p omo e ade, inancial coope a ion, and in es men , plays a signi ican ole in
de e mining how well egions na iga e such dis up ions.
2.1. Economic In eg a ion and Financial Ma ke Pe o mance
The in e connec edness o economies h ough ade, capi al lows, and inancial ma -
ke s has deepened wi h globaliza ion, making hem mo e suscep ible o ex e nal shocks.
Economic in eg a ion amewo ks, such as he Eu opean Union (EU), ASEAN, and Me co-
su , aim o educe ba ie s o ade and capi al mo emen , bu hese amewo ks ha e also
been es ed du ing global c ises. Ramelli and Wagne (2020) showed ha inancial ma ke s
eac swi ly o dis up ions, e lec ing in es o sen imen and economic undamen als.
Regions wi h s onge in eg a ion end o s abilize as e because o coo dina ed policy
esponses such as he EU’s synch onized iscal ac ions du ing COVID-19, which mi iga ed
ma ke ola ili y (Za emba e al.,2021). These policies included s imulus packages and
measu es o s abilize inancial ins i u ions, which p o ided immedia e elie o ma ke s
and ein o ced con idence among in es o s.
Howe e , global inancial in eg a ion also inc eases sys emic isk because ma ke
shocks in one egion can sp ead apidly o o he s h ough con agion e ec s. A key d i e o
his phenomenon is he ding beha io , in which in es o s make decisions based on ma ke
ends a he han on undamen al analysis (Bikhchandani & Sha ma,2001). He ding
ampli ies ola ili y, especially du ing c ises, as panic-d i en sell-o s sp ead ac oss ma -
ke s h ough a domino e ec . The COVID-19 pandemic saw a sha p inc ease in ma ke
co ela ions, wi h s ock indices ac oss de eloped and eme ging economies expe iencing
synch onized declines owing o global isk a e sion and liquidi y sho ages. This highligh s
how in e connec ed inancial ma ke s eac no only o domes ic economic condi ions, bu
also o b oade shi s in in es o sen imen and isk pe cep ion.
The con agion e ec was pa icula ly isible in eme ging ma ke s, whe e o eign
ins i u ional in es o s exi ed en masse, exace ba ing local cu ency dep ecia ion and s ock
ma ke declines. S udies ha e shown ha , du ing global c ises, eme ging ma ke s wi h
Economies 2025,13, 39 4 o 23
highe o eign in es o pa icipa ion expe ience la ge capi al ou lows and p olonged
eco e y pe iods (Fo bes & Rigobon,2002). Con e sely, ma ke s wi h lowe o eign ex-
posu e, such as some segmen s o China’s s ock ma ke , exhibi mo e insula ion om
ex e nal shocks.
The pandemic has also exposed gaps in egional coo dina ion, pa icula ly in he
de eloping egions. ASEAN’s inancial coope a ion bu e ed economic allou h ough
mechanisms such as he Chiang Mai Ini ia i e and sha ed mone a y policies (Wang e al.,
2021). This was in s a k con as o A ica and La in Ame ica, whe e limi ed policy align-
men and weake ma ke in eg a ion exace ba e ulne abili y (Ozili & A un,2020). These
dispa i ies unde sco e he impo ance o deepe inancial in eg a ion, which enhances
ma ke s abili y and s eng hens in es o con idence in imes o unce ain y.
Recen indings by End i e al. (2024) emphasize ha low long- e m in eg a ion le els
in de eloping ma ke s, such as Indonesia, p o ide di e si ica ion bene i s, bu also hinde
swi eco e y du ing global c ises. This inding highligh s he ade-o be ween inancial
in eg a ion and po olio di e si ica ion oppo uni ies. While s onge inancial in eg a ion
can imp o e liquidi y and isk-sha ing mechanisms, i also inc eases exposu e o global
shocks, as seen du ing COVID-19-induced ma ke sell-o s.
2.2. Dispa i ies Be ween De eloped and De eloping Ma ke s
The impac o he pandemic on s ock ma ke s a ies signi ican ly be ween de el-
oped and de eloping economies, e ealing s uc u al di e ences. De eloped ma ke s in
Eu ope and No h Ame ica ha e bene i ed om obus iscal measu es and ins i u ional
suppo , which ha e helped s abilize ma ke s (Bake e al.,2020). These economies exhibi
as e eco e y and mean e e sion o s ock e u ns, e lec ing hei s onge ins i u ional
amewo ks (Go msen & Koijen,2020).
Con e sely, de eloping economies expe ience p olonged ola ili y, d i en by weake
ins i u ions and limi ed iscal capaci y (Goodell,2020). Ozili and A un (2020) highligh
ha go e nmen es ic ions exace ba e ma ke ins abili y in hese egions, as s ingen
lockdowns dis up economic ac i i ies and expose s uc u al weaknesses. In A ica, he
limi ed dep h o inancial ma ke s and weak c oss-bo de coope a ion magni y he eco-
nomic challenges (Del e al.,2021). Simila ly, La in Ame ican ma ke s we e pa icula ly
ulne able o capi al ou lows, e lec ing he egion’s dependence on ex e nal in es men s
and limi ed abili y o mobilize domes ic esou ces.
The unique dynamics o inancial in eg a ion du ing c ises a e e iden in s udies by
Robiyan o (2018) and Yuliadi e al. (2024), who ind ha while de eloping ma ke s exhibi
lowe in eg a ion wi h global ma ke s, his segmen a ion can shield hem om he ull
ex en o global shocks. Howe e , hese bene i s a e o en ou weighed by he s uc u al
ulne abili ies ha limi eco e y.
2.3. Psychological Fac o s and Regional Ma ke Responses
In es o sen imen , measu ed h ough he Global Fea Index (GFI) and VIX, plays
a pi o al ole in shaping ma ke beha io du ing he pandemic. In de eloping egions,
whe e in es o con idence is mo e sensi i e o global e en s, ma ke s expe ience heigh ened
ola ili y because o ele a ed ea le els (Zhang e al.,2020). This ea -induced ola ili y
disp opo iona ely a ec s eme ging ma ke s, whe e weake ins i u ional amewo ks,
lowe liquidi y, and highe dependence on o eign in es o s exace ba e unce ain y (A ees
e al.,2021). Fo ins ance, he VIX su ged o an all- ime high in Ma ch 2020, e lec ing
widesp ead panic among global in es o s and leading o capi al ou lows, pa icula ly om
less in eg a ed inancial ma ke s (Zhang e al.,2020).
Economies 2025,13, 39 5 o 23
A c ucial ac o ampli ying his ola ili y is he beha io o o eign ins i u ional in-
es o s in eme ging s ock ma ke s. Unlike domes ic in es o s, o eign in es o s o en
eac s ongly o global isk pe cep ions, leading o capi al ligh s du ing c ises (Al a o
e al.,2020). This phenomenon, commonly e e ed o as he “ho money” e ec , in ensi ies
s ock ma ke down u ns, as la ge wi hd awals o o eign capi al igge liquidi y sho ages
and o ce downwa d p ice spi als (Bekae & Ha ey,1995). Mo eo e , exchange a e
luc ua ions compound ins abili y, as dep ecia ing local cu encies inc ease he cos o
o eign-denomina ed deb , u he weakening in es o con idence. Eme ging ma ke s
wi h signi ican exposu e o o eign po olio in es men s, such as Indonesia, B azil, and
Sou h A ica, a e pa icula ly ulne able and ha e expe ienced sha p cu ency dep e-
cia ion and s ock ma ke sell-o s du ing he ea ly phases o he pandemic (IMF,2021;
Ozili & A un,2020).
In con as , ma ke s in egions wi h deepe in eg a ion amewo ks, such as he
Eu ozone, bene i om coo dina ed policy announcemen s ha empe in es o anxie y
and s abilize ma ke s (Izzeldin e al.,2021). These e o s, including quan i a i e easing
p og ams and iscal s imulus packages, signaled s abili y and helped e ain in es o s’
con idence. Howe e , egions wi h weake in eg a ion, pa icula ly hose dependen on
o eign capi al in lows, s uggle o align ma ke expec a ions wi h policy ac ions, leading
o mo e p olonged dis up ions (Me & Ome ,2020).
The segmen a ion o some inancial ma ke s, as obse ed in Indonesia and China,
o e s oppo uni ies o di e si ica ion bu also exposes eme ging ma ke s o sen imen -
d i en ola ili y and exchange a e shocks (End i e al.,2024). Managing psychological
ac o s equi es a dual app oach: (1) a ge ed communica ion s a egies ha ein o ce
policy c edibili y and ma ke s abili y and (2) egula o y measu es o mi iga e excessi e
o eign capi al dependency and s eng hen domes ic in es o pa icipa ion. Addi ionally,
mechanisms such as o eign exchange in e en ions and capi al low managemen ools
can help s abilize ma ke s du ing pe iods o excessi e ola ili y.
These indings unde sco e he impo ance o add essing bo h s uc u al and psy-
chological ac o s when managing inancial c ises. E ec i e policy coo dina ion wi hin
egional blocs can mi iga e he impac o ea -d i en ola ili y, whe eas s onge inancial
in eg a ion enhances esilience o ex e nal shocks. Fu he mo e, ha monizing iscal and
mone a y policies ac oss egions s eng hens economic eco e y, educes capi al ligh isks,
and suppo s long- e m ma ke s abili y.
3. Me hodology, Da a, and Va iables
3.1. Da a
This s udy uses a comp ehensi e da a se ha combines s ock ma ke indices om
bo h de eloped and de eloping economies o ensu e egional di e si y and a ying le -
els o economic in eg a ion. Coun ies a e classi ied using ecognized inancial g oup-
ings, such as MSCI, In es ing.com (accessed on 26 Janua y 2024), S&P, and STOXX (see
Appendices Aand B). The classi ica ion is based on he yea ly e alua ion and anking
o equi y ma ke s a ound he wo ld as well as a e iew o ma ke accessibili y. This clas-
si ica ion p o ides a clea and objec i e dis inc ion be ween de eloped and de eloping
na ions and ensu es a meaning ul compa ison o s ock ma ke beha io ac oss di e se
economic con ex s.
The da a se co e s Oc obe 2019 o Decembe 2021, and is segmen ed in o h ee
dis inc phases:
•
The p e-ou b eak pe iod (Oc obe o Decembe 2019): ep esen s a s able baseline
pe iod be o e he eme gence o COVID-19.
Economies 2025,13, 39 6 o 23
•
Ou b eak (Janua y–Ma ch 2020): cap u es he ini ial shock as he pandemic
sp eads globally.
•
Pandemic (Ap il 2020 o Decembe 2021): e lec s sus ained impac s and policy e-
sponses du ing he p olonged c isis.
Da a on s ock ma ke p ices and daily e u ns we e sou ced om In es ing.com and
ADVFN, which p o ide eliable his o ical inancial da a o he global ma ke s. In o ma ion
on COVID-19 con i med cases, dea hs, and go e nmen esponse s ingency measu es was
ob ained om Ou Wo ld in Da a and Wo ldome e S a is ics. The Go e nmen Response
S ingency Index (SI) cap u ed he s ic ness o policy in e en ions on a scale om 0 o 100.
Ma ke sen imen da a we e collec ed om he Chicago Boa d Op ions Exchange (CBOE)
Vola ili y Index (VIX) and Global Fea Index (GFI) p oposed by A ees and La ee (2020).
Fiscal policy da a, including go e nmen spending and o gone e enues, we e sou ced
om he In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF) COVID-19 Fiscal Moni o Da abase.
This da a se enables a obus analysis o inancial ma ke dynamics du ing he
COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing he di e ences be ween de eloped and de eloping
ma ke s. By in eg a ing epidemiological, iscal, and psychological a iables, his s udy
cap u es he mul i ace ed na u e o he impac o he pandemic on global ma ke s.
3.2. Me hodology
This s udy employs a dynamic panel eg ession model o analyze he impac o
COVID-19 on s ock ma ke e u ns in de eloped and de eloping economies. This app oach
is well-sui ed o cap u ing empo al dynamics and c oss-sec ional he e ogenei y, enabling
insigh s in o how ma ke esponses a y ac oss egions and o e ime.
Th ee models we e es ima ed o assess he di e en aspec s o ma ke beha io .
•
Base Model: Examines he di ec e ec s o COVID-19 a iables (con i med cases,
dea hs, and s ingency measu es) on s ock ma ke e u ns.
•
Con ol Model: Inco po a es addi ional a iables, such as exchange a e luc ua ions,
iscal policies, and sen imen indices (VIX and GFI).
•
In e ac ion Model: This model in oduces in e ac ion e ms be ween he COVID-19
a iables and go e nmen s ingency measu es o assess how policy in e en ions
in luence ma ke dynamics.
The lagged dependen a iable is included o accoun o e u n pe sis ence, e lec ing
he momen um and mean e e sion endencies in s ock ma ke s.
Diagnos ic es s we e conduc ed be o e es ima ion:
•
Panel Uni Roo Tes s: Le in–Lin–Chu and Fishe es s ensu e he s a iona i y
o a iables.
•
Hausman Tes : De e mines he sui abili y be ween he andom e ec s and ixed
e ec s models.
The in e ac ion e ms allow o an in-dep h examina ion o how go e nmen esponses
mi iga e o ampli y he economic e ec s o he pandemic. Fo example, s ingen lock-
downs in de eloping coun ies may exace ba e ma ke ins abili y due o weake economic
s uc u es, whe eas in de eloped ma ke s, such measu es may enhance in es o con idence.
This me hodological amewo k p o ides a nuanced unde s anding o he e ec s o he
pandemic, accoun ing o bo h he s uc u al and empo al dimensions o ma ke esponses.
3.3. Va iables
The dependen a iable is Index Re u n (Index e ), calcula ed as he daily log e u ns
o s ock ma ke indices.
Independen Va iables:
Economies 2025,13, 39 7 o 23
COVID-19 Va iables:
•
Con i med Cases and Dea hs: Log- ans o med o accoun o exponen ial g ow h and
no malize he dis ibu ion.
•
S ingency Index (SI): A composi e measu e based on nine esponse indica o s, includ-
ing school closu es, wo kplace closu es, and a el bans.
Pandemic Se e i y: Ra io o con i med cases o popula ion size, e lec ing he in ensi y
o he pandemic’s impac on each coun y.
To analyze he di ec e ec o COVID-19- ela ed a iables on s ock ma ke e u ns
while accoun ing o e u n pe sis ence, he s udy es ima es he ollowing base model:
Index e i =α0+α1Index e i, −1+α2ccasesi +α3cdea hsi +α4SIi +ϵi (1)
This base model includes he lagged dependen a iable, Index e
i, −1
, o cap u e
he pe sis ence o s ock e u ns, indica ing whe he e u ns exhibi mean e e sion (i.e.,
whe he gains o losses a e co ec ed o e ime). The coe icien s
α
(2–4) es ima e he di ec
e ec s o COVID-19 cases, dea hs, and go e nmen s ingency measu es on s ock e u ns.
The con ol a iables:
Fiscal Policy Measu es: Quan i ied as addi ional go e nmen spending and o gone
e enues (in billions o USD). These da a we e no a ailable o all coun ies, such as he
Pales inian Te i o y and Venezuela.
Exchange Ra e Re u ns (ex): Daily changes in exchange a es o accoun o cu ency
e ec s on ma ke e u ns.
CBOE Vola ili y Index (VIX): Cap u es ma ke sen imen and e lec s global
isk a e sion.
Global Fea Index (GFI): B oade measu e o in es o sen imen ha accoun s o
global cases and dea hs o e a 14-day ho izon. The GFI is calcula ed as he weigh ed
a e age o he Repo ed Cases Index (RCI) and he Repo ed Dea hs Index (RDI). The RCI
measu es o which ex en expec a ions om epo ed cases in a pe iod o 14 days ahead
swe ed om he p esen epo ed case, as mos es ima es o he COVID-19 incuba ion
pe iod ange om 1–14 days (WHO,2020).
RCI = ∑N
iCi,
ΣN
i(Ci, +Ci, −14)!×100 (2)
whe e he nume a o is he o al numbe o COVID-19 pandemic epo ed cases a ime
o all he coun ies globally, i = 1, 2,
. . .
, N. N s ands o he o al numbe o cap u ed
c oss-sec ions in he index; C
i, −14,
he numbe o COVID-19 pandemic epo ed cases o
each c oss-sec ion a he incuba ion pe iod beginning, is ep esen ed as he p eceding 14 h
day. The whole equa ion is hen mul iplied by 100 o p o ide he index on a scale o 0 o
100. The highes alue ep esen s he highes le el o ea in he pandemic pe iod. The ea
le el dec eases as he index ends owa d 0.
The epo ed cases a e mi o ed by he Repo ed Dea h Index by connec ing he
numbe o daily epo ed dea hs o he expec ed numbe o dea hs epo ed in a 14-day
pe iod ahead, which is in line wi h he assump ion o RCI.
RDI = ∑N
iDi,
ΣN
i(Di, +Di, −14)!×100 (3)
whe e he nume a o is he o al numbe o COVID-19 epo ed dea hs a ime o all he
coun ies in he wo ld. D
i, −14
is he numbe o COVID-19 epo ed dea hs a he beginning
o he incuba ion pe iod, −14.
Economies 2025,13, 39 8 o 23
F om he abo e wo equa ions, he Global ea Index is compu ed as:
GFI =[0.5(RCI +RDI )] (4)
Following he de elopmen o he GFI, Makun (2021) applied o examine he e ec o
COVID-19 on s ock e u ns o nine majo Asia–Paci ic coun ies. He used he COVID-19
GFI o es ima e he COVID-19’s e ec on s ock e u ns empi ically. The esul s showed ha
he global ea index nega i ely and signi ican ly a ec s s ock e u ns in he long and sho
un. To con ol o addi ional ac o s ha could in luence s ock ma ke e u ns, such as
exchange a es, iscal policies, and ma ke sen imen , he model is ex ended as ollows:
Index e i =α0+α1Index e I, −1+α2ccasesi +α3cdea hsi +α4SIi +α5pse i
+α6 iscpi +α7VIXi +α8exi +ϵi
(5)
The in e ac ion Te ms:
The model includes in e ac ion e ms (e.g., COVID-19 Va iables
×
S ingency Index) o
assess how policy measu es in luenced he ela ionship be ween pandemic de elopmen s
and s ock ma ke pe o mance. These e ms cap u e he di e en ial e ec s o policy
in e en ions ac oss egions and ma ke ypes.
Index e i =α0+α1Index e i, −1+α2ccasesi +α3cdea hsi +α4SIi
+α5(ccases ×SI)i +α6(cdea hs ×SI)i
+ϵi
(6)
This model includes he in e ac ion e ms be ween COVID-19 cases and s ingency
measu es, allowing us o examine how go e nmen es ic ions modi ied he impac o
he pandemic on s ock e u ns. The lagged dependen a iable emains impo an o
cap u ing momen um o mean- e e sion endencies. This in e ac ion model p o ides a
comp ehensi e unde s anding o he impac o he pandemic, ensu ing obus and policy-
ele an insigh s in o he ma ke dynamics. By combining epidemiological, iscal, and
psychological ac o s, his s udy o e s a mul idimensional pe spec i e on inancial ma ke
esilience du ing global c ises.
4. Empi ical Analysis
The empi ical analysis was designed o sys ema ically e alua e he e ec s o he
COVID-19 pandemic on global s ock ma ke s using a s a egic segmen a ion o he da a
se in o dis inc ime ames. This segmen a ion acili a es nuanced isk assessmen by
cap u ing empo al and egional a ia ions in ma ke beha io .
The calm pe iod (1 Oc obe 2019 o 30 No embe 2019) se es as a baseline o ma ke
s abili y, ee om pandemic- ela ed dis up ions. This pe iod allows o he con ol o
seasonal e ec s and p o ides a e e ence poin agains which subsequen ola ili y can be
measu ed. By es ablishing a s able benchma k, his phase con ex ualizes he shi s obse ed
in he la e pe iods.
The ou b eak pe iod (1 Decembe 2019 o 10 Ma ch 2020) ma ks he eme gence o
COVID-19, cha ac e ized by unce ain y su ounding he i us’s ansmission and eco-
nomic implica ions. This phase cap u es he ini ial esponses o global ma ke s, e lec ing
he heigh ened unce ain y and ea ly impac o go e nmen in e en ions aimed a cu bing
he sp ead o he i us. Du ing his pe iod, s ock ma ke s we e in luenced by specula ion
and in o ma ion asymme y, as in es o s eac ed o un olding de elopmen s.
The pandemic began on 11 Ma ch 2020, when he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion o icially
decla ed COVID-19 a global pandemic. To cap u e e ol ing ma ke esponses, his pe iod is
u he di ided in o he ea ly pandemic phase (11 Ma ch o 31 May 2020) and he ex ended
Economies 2025,13, 39 15 o 23
ela ed dis up ions. These indings highligh he egion-speci ic sensi i i ies o ma ke s o
pandemic- ela ed shocks, d i en by hei economic s uc u es and sec o al dependencies.
Table 7. Ma ix o The Regional Ranking o he COVID-19 Impac on S ock Re u ns.
Ccases Cdea hs SI
A ica 3
Asia 2 2
Eu ope 1
Ame icas 1 1
Middle Eas 2 3
No e: This able anks he COVID-19 a iables a ec ing each egion’s s ock e u ns. The anking goes om 1 o 3,
wi h 1 being he egion mos nega i ely impac ed by he a iables and 3 he lowes . The anking is based on he
coe icien s e ie ed om Equa ions (2) and (3) om he eg ession analysis.
Go e nmen s ingency measu es nega i ely impac ed s ock e u ns in Asia, Eu ope,
and he Ame icas, wi h he mos se e e e ec s being eco ded in he Ame icas. These esul s
co obo a e hose o Za emba e al. (2021), who no ed ha , while s ingen measu es we e
essen ial o con olling public heal h isks, hey in ensi ied ma ke ola ili y, especially in
in e connec ed egions. In con as , A ica expe ienced a milde impac om s ingency
measu es, e lec ing i s limi ed in eg a ion in o global ade and inancial ne wo ks. This
ela i e insula ion aligns wi h Makun (2021), who obse ed ha less in e connec ed inan-
cial ma ke s such as hose in A ica we e pa ially shielded om he economic u bulence
o global c ises.
The lagged dependen a iable con i ms signi ican mean e e sion endencies in
he Ame icas and Eu ope, whe e s ock ma ke s s abilized mo e e ec i ely a e he ini ial
shocks. This s abili y is suppo ed by deepe ma ke liquidi y and obus ins i u ional
amewo ks, pa icula ly in Eu ope, whe e he Union’s coo dina ed iscal and mone a y
in e en ions mi iga e ola ili y and os e in es o con idence. Con e sely, A ica and he
Middle Eas showed weake mean e e sion endencies, e lec ing ma ke ine iciencies
and slowe eco e y ajec o ies due o limi ed policy coo dina ion and weake ins i u ional
suppo . Asia also demons a ed mixed pa e ns o mean e e sion, wi h s abiliza ion ob-
se ed p ima ily du ing pe iods o heigh ened go e nmen in e en ion. This unde sco es
he c i ical ole o policy measu es in s abilizing in es o sen imen in he egion.
Fea indices, including he Global Fea Index (GFI) and he CBOE Vola ili y Index
(VIX), ha e he s onges in luence on s ock e u ns in Asia and he Ame icas, con ibu ing
o sus ained ola ili y. These egions ha e expe ienced heigh ened unce ain y due o
a ying policy esponses and dispa i ies in heal hca e in as uc u e. Su p isingly, Eu ope
exhibi s lowe le els o ea -d i en ola ili y, likely due o s onge in es o con idence in
i s inancial sys ems and he e icacy o coo dina ed policy measu es. These obse a ions
align wi h hose o B oads ock and Zhang (2019), who emphasized he ole o e ec i e
go e nance in mi iga ing he psychological d i e s o ma ke ins abili y.
This in eg a ed analysis highligh s he in e play among public heal h measu es, iscal
in e en ions, and s ock ma ke esponses du ing he COVID-19 pandemic. While global
ma ke s a e uni e sally a ec ed, he magni ude and na u e o he impac a y signi ican ly
ac oss egions, e lec ing di e ences in s uc u al, ins i u ional, and psychological ac o s.
Regions wi h coo dina ed policy amewo ks, such as he Eu opean Union, demons a ed
g ea e esilience and as e eco e y, p o iding a bluep in o enhancing ma ke s abili y
du ing u u e c ises. Con e sely, egions wi h weake in eg a ion, such as A ica and pa s
o he Middle Eas , ha e expe ienced p olonged ins abili y, unde sco ing he need o
s eng hened ins i u ional amewo ks and egional coope a ion.
Economies 2025,13, 39 16 o 23
The egional analysis unde sco es he c i ical impo ance o ailo ed in e en ions and
egional coope a ion in managing ma ke s abili y du ing c ises. Policymake s can d aw
aluable lessons om he ela i e success o highly in eg a ed egions, emphasizing he
ole o iscal coo dina ion, obus go e nance, and e ec i e communica ion in mi iga ing
ola ili y and os e ing in es o con idence. Simul aneously, add essing he s uc u al
ulne abili ies o less in eg a ed ma ke s emains pa amoun o enhancing esilience and
achie ing sus ainable inancial s abili y in he ace o u u e global dis up ions.
5. Conclusions
This s udy p o ides a comp ehensi e analysis o he impac o he COVID-19 pan-
demic on global s ock ma ke s, o e ing nuanced insigh s in o he di e gen esponses o
de eloped and de eloping economies and highligh ing c i ical egional a ia ions. Using
a dynamic panel model, his s udy in eg a es pandemic- ela ed a iables, iscal policies,
and in es o sen imen o explo e he d i e s o ma ke pe o mance du ing a global c isis.
These indings emphasize he impo ance o economic in eg a ion, coo dina ed policy
amewo ks, and ins i u ional obus ness in mi iga ing ola ili y and p omo ing ma ke
s abili y du ing dis up ions.
Key insigh s eme ged om his analysis. In de eloped ma ke s, heigh ened sensi i i y
o con i med cases exace ba es ola ili y. Howe e , obus iscal in e en ions e ec i ely
s abilize in es o sen imen and acili a e eco e y. These indings unde sco e he s abi-
lizing in luence o ins i u ional esilience and policy lexibili y in ad anced economies. In
con as , de eloping ma ke s ace heigh ened ola ili y due o s ingen go e nmen in e -
en ions, s uc u al cons ain s, and weake ins i u ional amewo ks. These dispa i ies
highligh he p essing need o deepe economic in eg a ion and ins i u ional s eng hening
in less de eloped egions o enhance hei esilience agains ex e nal shocks.
Psychological ac o s, including ea and unce ain y, signi ican ly shaped ma ke
dynamics, as e idenced by indices such as he Global Fea Index (GFI) and Vola ili y Index
(VIX). Fea -induced ola ili y disp opo iona ely a ec s egions wi h weake in eg a ion
and ins i u ional agili y, unde sco ing he necessi y o managing in es o sen imen along-
side economic policies. E ec i e communica ion, anspa en go e nance, and a ge ed
measu es o bols e con idence a e c ucial o s abilizing ma ke s, pa icula ly in economies
wi h less di e si ied inancial sys ems.
F om a egional pe spec i e, his s udy e eals s a k di e ences in he ma ke e-
sponses o he pandemic. The Ame icas ha e expe ienced p o ound dis up ions d i en
by high in ec ion a es and agmen ed policy esponses. Eu ope demons a ed g ea e e-
silience by le e aging coo dina ed iscal and mone a y policies wi hin he Eu opean Union
o s abilize ma ke s and accele a e eco e y. Con e sely, A ica and pa s o Asia, while
less in eg a ed in o global inancial sys ems, expe ienced milde immedia e dis up ions,
bu aced p olonged eco e y challenges due o limi ed access o in e na ional inancial
suppo and weake ins i u ional capaci ies. These egional dispa i ies highligh he c i -
ical impo ance o de eloping obus coope a i e amewo ks and enhancing economic
in eg a ion o mi iga e he ad e se e ec s o global c ises.
The indings u he e eal ha s ock ma ke s in mo e in eg a ed egions, such as
Eu ope, display mean e e sion endencies, e lec ing hei abili y o abso b shocks and
eco e . Con e sely, egions wi h weake in eg a ion, such as A ica and pa s o Asia, ace
p olonged ins abili y, e lec ing he pe sis en challenges in es o ing in es o con idence.
S eng hening egional coope a ion and os e ing deepe inancial in eg a ion can bols e
esilience and suppo a as e eco e y in he ace o u u e c ises.
Economies 2025,13, 39 17 o 23
A key akeaway om his s udy is he impo ance o egional inancial coope a ion
mechanisms in s abilizing s ock ma ke s du ing c ises. Economic alliances such as he
Associa ion o Sou heas Asian Na ions F ee T ade A ea (AFTA), Asia-Paci ic Economic
Coope a ion (APEC), he G20, and he BRICS coali ion o e pla o ms o coo dina ed
policy esponses ha mi iga e economic shocks. Fo ins ance, ASEAN’s Chiang Mai Ini ia-
i e p o ides a egional liquidi y sa e y ne ha enhances inancial s abili y du ing a c isis.
Simila ly, he G20’s collec i e iscal in e en ions du ing he pandemic demons a ed he
e ec i eness o synch onized economic policies in cushioning global inancial dis up ions.
In de eloping economies, le e aging egional economic coope a ion can help coun e ac
capi al ou lows, s abilize exchange a es, and es o e in es o con idence.
Fo policymake s, his s udy unde sco es he alue o coo dina ed iscal and mone a y
policies wi hin in eg a ed economic amewo ks o educe ola ili y and os e s abili y. The
lessons d awn om Eu ope’s esilience du ing he pandemic can se e as models o o he
egions. In es men s in heal hca e in as uc u e, anspa en communica ion s a egies,
and e ec i e managemen o in es o sen imen a e pi o al o enhancing esilience and
p omo ing inancial s abili y. Fo in es o s and business owne s, unde s anding egional
in eg a ion le els and ins i u ional obus ness is c i ical o na iga ing unce ain y and
making in o med decisions du ing global dis up ions.
While his s udy p o ides impo an con ibu ions, i is no wi hou i s limi a ions.
The analysis is cons ained by he da a se ’s ime ame, which p ima ily cap u es sho -
o medium- e m pandemic impac s. Addi ionally, his s udy does no accoun o he
nuanced in e ac ions be ween iscal and mone a y policies o po en ial ou lie s ha may
skew he indings. The ole o inancial and ade linkages as well as sys emic con agion
e ec s emains an a ea o u he explo a ion. Fu u e esea ch could inco po a e ne wo k
analysis, de ailed ade and inancial low da a, o ad anced con agion models o be e
quan i y he in e connec edness and i s in luence on ma ke dynamics du ing c ises.
This s udy ad ances he unde s anding o pandemic economics by p o iding a com-
pa a i e pe spec i e on global s ock ma ke esponses o COVID-19. This unde sco es he
pi o al ole o economic in eg a ion, coo dina ed policy esponses, and egional coope a ion
in p omo ing esilience and ensu ing sus ainable eco e y. Fu u e s udies could explo e
he e olu ion o egional amewo ks in a pos -pandemic wo ld and del e deepe in o he
in e connec edness o global economies h ough ade, inance, and sys emic linkages o
en ich ou unde s anding o global ma ke dynamics in he ace o ex e nal shocks.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, B.I.P.Z. and M.B.B.; me hodology, B.I.P.Z. and C.C.;
so wa e, B.I.P.Z. and C.C.; alida ion, B.I.P.Z., M.B.B., C.C. and K.D.; o mal analysis, B.I.P.Z., M.B.B.,
C.C. and K.D.; da a cu a ion, C.C. and K.D.; w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, M.B.B.; w i ing—
e iew and edi ing, B.I.P.Z.; supe ision, K.D.; p ojec adminis a ion, M.B.B. All au ho s ha e ead
and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The da a p esen ed in his s udy a e a ailable on eques om he
co esponding au ho due o ongoing p ojec .
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
Economies 2025,13, 39 18 o 23
Appendix A. Selec ed Coun ies
De eloped Ma ke s De eloping Ma ke s
A ica -
Bo swana, Egyp , Kenya, Mau i ius,
Mo occo, Namibia, Nige ia, Rwanda,
Sou h A ica, Tanzania, Tunisia,
Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Asia Hong-Kong (China SAR),
Japan, Singapo e.
Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia,
I aq, Kazakhs an, Malaysia,
Mongolia, Pakis an, Philippines,
Sou h Ko ea, S i Lanka, Taiwan,
Thailand, Vie nam.
Eu ope
Aus ia, Belgium, Denma k,
Finland, F ance, Ge many,
I eland, I aly, Ne he lands,
No way, Po ugal, Slo akia,
Spain, Sweden, Swi ze land,
he UK.
Bulga ia, C oa ia, Czech Republic,
G eece, Hunga y, Iceland, Mal a,
Mon eneg o, Poland, Romania,
Russia, Se bia, Slo enia, Uk aine.
Ame icas Canada, he Uni ed S a es o
Ame ica (USA).
A gen ina, B azil, Chile, Colombia,
Cos a Rica, Ecuado , Jamaica,
Mexico, Pe u.
Middle Eas /Oceania
and Paci ic
Aus alia, Is ael,
New Zealand.
Bah ain, Jo dan, Kuwai , Lebanon,
Oman, Pales ine, Qa a , Saudi A abia,
Tu key, Uni ed A ab Emi a es (UAE).
Sou ce: Au ho s’ compu a ion based on MSCI, In es ing.com, S&P, and STOXX’s classi ica ion. No es: Aus alia
and New Zealand will be la e emo ed om he egional analysis o a oid biases due o sho sample. Thus,
only he Middle Eas Coun ies will be kep . The e o e, he inal da a con ains obse a ions o 86 coun ies. Also,
he WAEMU (Wes A ican Economic and Mone a y Union) is an A ican de eloping ma ke no included in he
p esen s udy, as i is composed o eigh coun ies sha ing and ep esen ed by a unique s ock exchange, while hey
each had a di e en numbe o COVID-19 con i med cases and dea hs and a di e en pe iods. Fu he , coun ies
such as Ghana, Malawi, La ia, Luxembou g, Bosnia-He zego ina, Es onia, and Li huania had no upda ed s ock
ma ke da a a ailable a he ime o he s udy.
Appendix B. De ails o Selec ed Coun ies
Coun y Name Selec ed Indices 1s COVID
Case Coun y Name Selec ed Indices 1s COVID
Case
A gen ina S&P Me al (MERV) 3-Ma -20 Mongolia MNE Top 20
(MNE TOP20) 10-Ma -20
Aus alia S&P/ASX 200 (AXJ0) 25-Jan-20 Mon eneg o MNSE 10 17-Ma -20
Aus ia ATX (ATX) 25-Feb-20 Mo occo Mo occan All Sha es
(MASI) 2-Ma -20
Bah ain Bah ain All Sha e (BAX) 24-Feb-20 Namibia FTSE NSX O e all
(FTN098) 14-Ma -20
Bangladesh Dhaka S ock Exchange 30
(DS30) 8-Ma -20 Ne he lands AEX (AEX) 27-Feb-20
Belgium BEL 20 (BFX) 3-Feb-20 New Zealand NZX 50 (NZ50) 28-Feb-20
Bo swana BSE Domes ic Company
(DCIBT) 30-Ma -20 Nige ia NSE 30 (NGSE 30) 27-Feb-20
B azil Bo espa (BVSP) 25-Feb-20 No way OSE Benchma k (MSX 30) 26-Feb-20
Bulga ia BSE SOFIX (SOFIX) 8-Ma -20 Oman MSM 30 (MSX 30) 24-Feb-20
Canada S&P/TSX Composi e
(CSPTSE) 25-Jan-20 Pakis an Ka achi 100 (KSE) 26-Feb-20
Economies 2025,13, 39 19 o 23
Coun y Name Selec ed Indices 1s COVID
Case Coun y Name Selec ed Indices 1s COVID
Case
Chile S&P CLX IPSA (SPIPSA) 3-Ma -20 Pales inian
Te i o y Al-Quds (PLE) 5-Ma -20
China CSI 1000 (CSI 1000I) 1-Dec-19 Pe u S&P Lima Gene al
(SPBLPGPT) 6-Ma -20
Colombia COLCAP (COLCAP) 6-Ma -20 Philippines Philippines PSEi
Composi e (PSI) 30-Jan-20
Cos a Rica Cos a Rica Indice
Acciona io (IACR) 6-Ma -20 Poland WIG20 (WIG20) 4-Ma -20
C oa ia CROBEC (CR BEX) 25-Feb-20 Po ugal PSI 20 (PSI20) 2-Ma -20
Cyp us Cyp us Main Ma ke
(CYMAIN) 9-Ma -20 Qa a QE Gene al (QSI) 29-Feb-20
Czech Republic
PX (PX) 1-Ma -20 Romania BET (BETI) 26-Feb-20
Denma k OMX Copenhagen 20
(OMXC20) 27-Feb-20 Russia MOEX Russia (IMOEX) 31-Jan-20
Ecuado Guayaquil Selec (BVG) 29-Feb-20 Rwanda Rwanda All Sah es
(ALSIRW) 14-Ma -20
Egyp EGX 30 (EGX30) 14-Feb-20 Saudi A abia
MSCI TADAWUL 30 P ice
Re u n (MISAT0002PSA) 2-Ma -20
Finland OMX Helsinki 25
(OMXH 25) 29-Jan-20 Se bia Belex 15 (BELEXIS) 6-Ma -20
F ance CAC 40 (FCHI) 24-Jan-20 Singapo e MSCI Singapo e
(MISG0000FPSG) 23-Jan-20
Ge many DAX (GDAXI) 27-Jan-20 Slo akia SAX (SAX) 6-Ma -20
G eece A hens Gene al
Composi e (ATG) 26-Feb-20 Slo enia Slo enia Blue-Chip
SBITOP (SBITOP) 4-Ma -20
Hong Kong Hang Seng (HIS) 22-Jan-20 Sou h A ica Sou h A ica Top 40
(JTOPI) 5-Ma -20
Hunga y Budapes SE (BUX) 4-Ma -20 Sou h Ko ea KOSPI (KSII) 20-Jan-20
Iceland ICEX Main (OMXIPI) 28-Feb-20 Spain IBEX 35 (IBEX) 31-Jan-20
India BSE Sensex 30 (BSEN) 30-Jan-20 S i Lanka CSE All-sha e (CSE) 27-Jan-20
Indonesia Jaka a S ock Exchange
Composi e Index (JKSE) 2-Ma -20 Sweden OMX S ockholm 30
(OMXS30) 31-Jan-20
I aq ISX Main 60 (ISX60) 24-Feb-20 Swi ze land SMI (SSMI) 25-Feb-20
I eland ISEQ O e all (ISEQ) 29-Feb-20 Taiwan Taiwan Weigh ed (TWII) 21-Jan-20
Is ael TA 35 (TA35) 21-Feb-20 Tanzania Tanzania All Sha e (DSEI) 16-Ma -20
I aly In es ing.com I aly 40
(in i 40) 30-Jan-20 Thailand SET Index (SETI) 13-Jan-20
Jamaica JSE Ma ke (JSEMI) 10-Ma -20 Tunisia Tunindex (TUNINDEX) 2-Ma -20
Japan Nikkei 225 (N225) 16-Jan-20 Tu key BIST 100 (XU100) 11-Ma -20
Jo dan Amman SE Gene al
(AMGNRLX) 2-Ma -20 Uganda Uganda All Sha e
(ALSIUG) 20-Ma -20
Kazakhs an Kase (KASE) 13-Ma -20 Uk aine PFTS (PFTSI) 3-Ma -20
Kenya Kenya NSE 20 (NSE20) 13-Ma -20 Uni ed A ab
Emi a es DFM Gene al (DFMGI) 29-Jan-20
Kuwai Kuwai Main Ma ke 50
(BKM50) 24-Feb-20 Uni ed
Kingdom
In es ing.com Uni ed
Kingdom 100 (in uk100) 31-Jan-20
Lebanon BLOM S ock (BLSI) 21-Feb-20 Uni ed S a es S&P 500 (SPX) 20-Jan-20
Economies 2025,13, 39 20 o 23
Coun y Name Selec ed Indices 1s COVID
Case Coun y Name Selec ed Indices 1s COVID
Case
Malaysia FTSE Malaysia KLCI
(KLSE) 25-Jan-20 Venezuela Bu sa il (IBC) 13-Ma -20
Mal a MSE (MSE) 7-Ma -20 Vie nam HNX 30 (HNX30) 23-Jan-20
Mau i ius Sandex (MDEX) 18-Ma -20 Zambia LSE All Sha e (LASILZ) 18-Ma -20
Mexico S&P/BMV IPC (MXX) 28-Feb-20 Zimbabwe ZSE All Sha e (ALSZI) 20-Ma -20
Sou ce: Au ho s’ compu a ion.
Appendix C. A ica Region
Equa ion (1) Equa ion (2) Equa ion (3)
Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values
index e −0.0005 0.9570 index e −0.0057 *** 0.0000 index e −0.0002 0.8780
ccases −0.0220 * 0.0939 ccases −0.0190 * 0.0945 ccasesxSI −0.0370 * 0.0890
cdea hs 0.1640 * 0.0543 cdea hs 0.1330 * 0.0621 cdea hsxSI 0.1450 ** 0.0586
SI 0.0520 * 0.0882 SI 0.0060 * 0.0986
pse 1661.5660 *** 0.0070 pse 1664.5770 ** 0.0070
iscp 0.1420 ** 0.0378 iscp 0.1390 ** 0.0385
GFI −1.3400 ** 0.0309 GFI −1.3440 ** 0.0307
VIX −0.0020 * 0.0976 VIX −0.0020 * 0.0974
ex −13.3390 *** 0.0000 ex −13.3390 *** 0.0000
Cons an −0.9030 0.6080 Cons an −0.6570 0.7050 Cons an −0.9420 0.5150
R-squa e 0.1000 R-squa e 0.3600 R-squa e 0.3600
N 8960 N 8960 N 8960
No es: This able p esen s he dynamic panel eg ession wi h andom e ec s on indices daily e u ns in A ica.
Equa ion (1) is he base eg ession o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic on s ock e u ns. Equa ion (2) epea s
he p ocess in he p esence o o he independen a iables. Equa ion (3) uses he in e ac ion e m con olling
o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic du ing he en o cemen o s ingency measu es. ***, **, and * deno e
signi icance a 1%, 5%, and 10% le els, espec i ely.
Appendix D. Asia Region
Equa ion (1) Equa ion (2) Equa ion (3)
Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values
index e −0.3395 *** 0.0000 index e −0.0015 0.2440 index e −0.0005 0.7400
ccases −0.0700 * 0.0634 ccases −0.0600 * 0.0694 ccasesxSI −0.0620 * 0.0686
cdea hs 0.0570 * 0.0666 cdea hs 0.0460 * 0.0735 cdea hsxSI 0.0390 * 0.0773
SI −0.2590 * 0.0510 SI −0.2560 * 0.0514
pse −315.1760 0.7600 pse −308.9040 0.7640
iscp 0.0120 * 0.0841 iscp 0.0140 * 0.0809
GFI −2.5420 ** 0.0133 GFI −2.5510 ** 0.0131
VIX −0.0360 * 0.0588 VIX −0.0360 * 0.0590
ex 1.8460 *** 0.0070 ex 1.844 *** 0.0070
Cons an 1.2870 0.4760 Cons an 1.3140 0.4750 Cons an 0.4190 0.6960
R-squa e 0.1460 R-squa e 0.1470 R-squa e 0.1470
N 11,520 N 11,520 N 11,520
No es: This able p esen s he dynamic panel eg ession wi h andom e ec s in Asia. Equa ion (1) is he base
eg ession o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic on s ock e u ns. Equa ion (2) epea s he p ocess in he
p esence o o he independen a iables. Equa ion (3) uses he in e ac ion e m con olling o he e ec o he
COVID-19 pandemic du ing he en o cemen o s ingency measu es. ***, **, and * deno e signi icance a 1%, 5%,
and 10% le els, espec i ely.
Economies 2025,13, 39 21 o 23
Appendix E. Eu ope Region
Equa ion (1) Equa ion (2) Equa ion (3)
Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values
index e 0.0012 0.8610 index e −0.0006 0.4040 index e 0.0007 0.3130
ccases 0.0600 * 0.0662 ccases 0.2260 ** 0.0109 ccasesxSI 0.2260 ** 0.0109
cdea hs −0.0450 * 0.0737 cdea hs −0.2410 * 0.0860 cdea hsxSI −0.2400 * 0.0860
SI −0.1720 ** 0.0189 SI −0.0120 * 0.0932
pse −462.5910 ** 0.0290 pse −463.0270 ** 0.0280
iscp 0.1840 ** 0.0150 iscp 0.1840 ** 0.0120
GFI −0.0230 0.4260 GFI −0.0230 0.4260
VIX 1.1470 * 0.0790 VIX 1.1470 * 0.0790
ex 5.9480 *** 0.0000 ex 5.9480 *** 0.0000
Cons an −1.1640 0.1840 Cons an −1.2850 0.1480 Cons an −1.2800 0.1230
R-squa e 0.1000 R-squa e 0.1200 R-squa e 0.1200
N 19,200 N 19,200 N 19,200
No es: This able p esen s he dynamic panel eg ession wi h andom e ec s on indices daily e u ns in Eu ope.
Equa ion (1) is he base eg ession o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic on s ock e u ns. Equa ion (2) epea s
he p ocess in he p esence o o he independen a iables. Equa ion (3) uses he in e ac ion e m con olling
o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic du ing he en o cemen o s ingency measu es. ***, **, and * deno e
signi icance a 1%, 5%, and 10% le els, espec i ely.
Appendix F. Ame icas Region
Equa ion (1) Equa ion (2) Equa ion (3)
Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values
index e −0.0467 *** 0.0000 index e 0.0019 0.4010 index e −0.0035 0.1300
ccases −0.0310 * 0.0933 ccases −0.4190 ** 0.0293 ccasesxSI −0.3410 ** 0.0394
cdea hs 0.0380 * 0.0914 cdea hs 0.2910 ** 0.0417 cdea hsxSI 0.2480 ** 0.0490
SI −2.1810 *** 0.0000 SI −2.3760 *** 0.0000
pse 4696.4290 *** 0.0000 pse 4374.0580 *** 0.0010
iscp −0.0050 0.9670 iscp −0.0250 0.8340
GFI −2.3940 ** 0.0182 GFI −2.4360 ** 0.0175
VIX −0.0050 * 0.0955 VIX −0.0010 * 0.0991
ex 8.4740 *** 0.0000 ex 8.5090 *** 0.0000
Cons an 9.406 *** 0.0040 Cons an 12.3670 *** 0.0010 Cons an 2.3270 0.3880
R-squa e 0.1600 R-squa e 0.2500 R-squa e 0.2200
N 7029 N 7029 N 7029
No es: This able p esen s he dynamic panel eg ession wi h andom e ec s on indices daily e u ns in Ame icas.
Equa ion (1) is he base eg ession o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic on s ock e u ns. Equa ion (2) epea s
he p ocess in he p esence o o he independen a iables. Equa ion (3) uses he in e ac ion e m con olling
o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic du ing he en o cemen o s ingency measu es. ***, **, and * deno e
signi icance a 1%, 5%, and 10% le els, espec i ely.
Appendix G. Middle Eas Region
Equa ion (1) Equa ion (2) Equa ion (3)
Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values
index e −0.0017 0.8910 index e −0.0014 0.3350 index e 0.0008 0.5570
ccases 0.1400 * 0.0616 ccases 0.1810 * 0.0523 ccasesxSI 0.1420 * 0.0615
cdea hs −0.1640 * 0.0520 cdea hs −0.2190 ** 0.0395 cdea hsxSI −0.2330 ** 0.0367
SI 1.1350 * 0.0570 SI 1.1850 ** 0.0500
pse −440.7490 0.3830 pse −339.3150 0.5000
iscp 0.0760 * 0.0517 iscp 0.0860 ** 0.0462
GFI −0.4760 * 0.0684 GFI −0.4620 * 0.0693
Economies 2025,13, 39 22 o 23
Equa ion (1) Equa ion (2) Equa ion (3)
Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values Va iable Coe . p-Values
VIX −0.0260 * 0.0642 VIX −0.0270 * 0.0632
ex −1.1690 * 0.0710 ex −1.1260 * 0.0820
Cons an −5.3770 0.1090 Cons an −5.6420 0.1010 Cons an 0.1240 0.9540
R-squa e 0.1500 R-squa e 0.1000 R-squa e 0.1000
N 7040 N 7040 N 7040
No es: This able p esen s he dynamic panel eg ession wi h andom e ec s on indices daily e u ns in he
Middle Eas . Equa ion (1) is he base eg ession o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic on s ock e u ns.
Equa ion (2) epea s he p ocess in he p esence o o he independen a iables. Equa ion (3) uses he in e ac ion
e m con olling o he e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic du ing he en o cemen o s ingency measu es. **, and
* deno e signi icance a 5%, and 10% le els, espec i ely.
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Disclaime /Publishe ’s No e: The s a emen s, opinions and da a con ained in all publica ions a e solely hose o he indi idual
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