Kosyako a, Yuliya; B ücke , He be
Resea ch Repo
On he labou ma ke in eg a ion o e ugees om
Uk aine: A simula ion s udy
IAB-Fo schungsbe ich , No. 9/2024en
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ins i u e o Employmen Resea ch (IAB)
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kosyako a, Yuliya; B ücke , He be (2024) : On he labou ma ke in eg a ion
o e ugees om Uk aine: A simula ion s udy, IAB-Fo schungsbe ich , No. 9/2024en, Ins i u ü
A bei sma k - und Be u s o schung (IAB), Nü nbe g,
h ps://doi.o g/10.48720/IAB.FB.2409EN
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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IAB Fo schungsbe ich 9|2024en
2
IAB RESEARCH REPORT
Resul s om he p ojec wo k o he IAB
9|2024en On he labou ma ke in eg a ion o e ugees
om Uk aine: A simula ion s udy
Yuliya Kosyako a, He be B ücke
On he labou ma ke in eg a ion o e ugees
om Uk aine: A simula ion s udy
Yuliya Kosyako a (IAB, Uni e si y o Bambe g)
He be B ücke (IAB, Humbold -Uni e si ä zu Be lin, BIM)
The IAB Resea ch Repo s (IAB-Fo schungsbe ich e) se ies publishes la ge -scale empi ical
analyses and p ojec epo s, o en wi h hea ily da a- and me hod- ela ed con en .
In de Reihe IAB-Fo schungsbe ich e we den empi ische Analysen und P ojek be ich e g öße en
Um angs, iel ach mi s a k da en- und me hodenbezogenen Inhal en, publizie .
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
3
In b ie
• The Uk ainian popula ion in Ge many has inc eased om 156,000 o 1,240,000 by he end o
2023 since he onse o he Russian wa o agg ession. Gi en he p olonged con lic , an
inc easing numbe o Uk ainian e ugees a e conside ing longe o pe manen s ays in
Ge many, unde sco ing he impo ance o hei labou ma ke in eg a ion.
• This esea ch epo de elops scena ios based on da a om e ugees who mo ed o
Ge many be o e 2022 and o he mig an s om he o me So ie Union o p ojec po en ial
employmen a e de elopmen s o Uk ainian e ugees.
• In he baseline scena io, Uk ainian e ugees achie e an a e age employmen a e o 45
pe cen a e i e yea s o esidence in Ge many, and 55 pe cen a e en yea s.
• The employmen a e dispa i y be ween gende s is no able. Fi e yea s pos -a i al, men
achie e an employmen a e o 58 pe cen , while women each 41 pe cen . A e en yea s,
hese a es inc ease o 68 pe cen o men and 52 pe cen o women.
• The amily cons ella ions o Uk ainian e ugees, pa icula ly he high p opo ion o single
mo he s, and hei compa a i ely poo heal h nega i ely impac employmen a e
de elopmen . Con e sely, hei high le el o educa ion, an icipa ed imp o emen in
language skills, and a o able ins i u ional condi ions – especially he aboli ion o he asylum
p ocedu e – posi i ely in luence employmen ou comes.
• Language suppo and comple ion o language cou ses a e bene icial o employmen a e
de elopmen .
• As he labou ma ke igh ens, he employmen a es o Uk ainian e ugees signi ican ly
inc ease.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
4
Con en s
In b ie ................................................................................................................................................... 3
Con en s ............................................................................................................................................... 4
Summa y .............................................................................................................................................. 5
1 In oduc ion ................................................................................................................................. 7
2 Pa allels and di e ences ............................................................................................................ 10
2.1 Demog aphic ac o s .......................................................................................................... 10
2.2 Educa ion, aining, language skills and employmen s a us .......................................... 13
2.3 Ins i u ional and o he amewo k condi ions .................................................................. 15
3 Me hod ........................................................................................................................................ 18
4 Simula ion esul s ...................................................................................................................... 20
4.1 Baseline scena io ............................................................................................................... 20
4.2 Family cons ella ions ......................................................................................................... 21
4.3 Educa ion and aining ...................................................................................................... 23
4.4 Ge man language skills and Ge man language cou ses ................................................... 24
4.5 Asylum p ocedu e .............................................................................................................. 26
4.6 Heal h ................................................................................................................................. 27
4.7 Cumula i e e ec o Ge man language cou se pa icipa ion, asylum applica ion and
heal h s a us ................................................................................................................................... 29
4.8 Role o local labou ma ke condi ions ............................................................................. 30
5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 32
Re e ences .......................................................................................................................................... 35
Appendix ............................................................................................................................................. 39
Figu es ................................................................................................................................................ 42
Tables ................................................................................................................................................. 42
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
5
Summa y
Since he onse o Russia's wa agains Uk aine, he numbe o Uk ainian na ionals in Ge many
has isen om 156,000 o 1,240,000. Al hough many plan o e u n o Uk aine a e he wa , he
du a ion o he con lic is leading an inc easing numbe o hem o conside s aying in Ge many
o an ex ended pe iod o pe manen ly. Agains his backd op, his esea ch epo simula es
a ious scena ios o labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees, based on he employmen
ajec o ies o p e ious e ugees and mig an s om he o me So ie Union. The scena ios aim
o es ablish ealis ic expec a ions abou he p og ess o labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian
e ugees and o quan i a i ely assess he impac o speci ic ac o s. Howe e , hese condi ional
scena ios should no be misunde s ood as o ecas s, as hey a e based on s ong assump ions
and do no ully con ol o many ele an ac o s.
In he baseline scena io, which is based on wha we belie e a e he mos ealis ic assump ions
ega ding demog aphic ac o s, amily con igu a ions, educa ion, language skills, and
ins i u ional and economic condi ions, he a e age employmen a e o Uk ainian e ugees is
p ojec ed o be 45 pe cen a e i e yea s and 55 pe cen a e en yea s. Gende composi ion
and amily con igu a ion ha e a dampening e ec on employmen a es, while educa ion le el
and expec ed language skills de elopmen ha e a posi i e impac . The compa a i ely poo
heal h o Uk ainian e ugees also dampens employmen a es. Con e sely, ins i u ional
condi ions, pa icula ly he absence o asylum p ocedu es, ha e a posi i e impac . Economic
condi ions, measu ed by labou ma ke igh ness, also ha e a s ong in luence. The cu en
economic down u n has a nega i e e ec , bu he pic u e could quickly imp o e wi h an
economic eco e y due o inc easing labou ma ke ension amid demog aphic changes, which
would likely inc ease employmen a es compa ed o he baseline scena io. A key inding o
in eg a ion policy is ha language cou ses no only enhance language de elopmen bu also
signi ican ly boos employmen a es.
Zusammen assung
Sei Beginn des ussischen Ang i sk iegs au die Uk aine is die Anzahl uk ainische
S aa sangehö igen in Deu schland on 156.000 au 1.240.000 anges iegen. Obwohl ein
e hebliche Teil diese Menschen nach dem K iegsende plan , in die Uk aine zu ückzukeh en,
zeig sich, dass mi zunehmende K iegsdaue imme meh einen länge en ode daue ha en
Au en hal in Deu schland in Be ach ziehen. Vo diesem Hin e g und simulie diese
Fo schungsbe ich e schiedene Szena ien de A bei sma k in eg a ion uk ainische
Ge lüch e e . G undlage bilden die E we bs e läu e ühe e Ge lüch e e in Deu schland sowie
on Mig an innen und Mig an en aus de ehemaligen Sowje union. Die Szena ien zielen da au
ab, ealis ische E wa ungen übe die En wicklung de A bei sma k in eg a ion on Ge lüch e en
aus de Uk aine zu bilden, und die Ein lüsse spezi ische Fak o en quan i a i zu analysie en.
Diese kondi ionalen Szena ien sind alle dings nich als P ognosen misszu e s ehen, da sie da on
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
6
abhängig sind, ob die zug unde geleg en Annahmen zu e en und iele ele an e Fak o en nich
olls ändig be ücksich ig we den können.
In dem Basisszena io, dem nach unse e Einschä zung die ealis ischs en Annahmen übe
demog a ische Fak o en, Familienkons ella ionen, Bildung, Sp ache, ins i u ionelle und
wi scha liche Fak o en zu G unde liegen, e gib sich nach eine Au en hal sdaue on ün
Jah en eine du chschni liche E we bs ä igenquo e on 45 P ozen , nach zehn Jah en on 55
P ozen . Insbesonde e de hohe An eil on Alleine ziehenden sowie de e gleichsweise
schlech e Gesundhei szus and de uk ainischen Ge lüch e en wi ken sich dämp end au die
En wicklung de E we bs ä igenquo en aus, wäh end das ela i hohe Bildungs- und
Ausbildungsni eau sowie die zu e wa ende En wicklung de Sp achkenn nisse einen posi i en
Ein luss haben. Dies gil auch ü die ins i u ionellen Rahmenbedingungen, insbesonde e den
Ve zich au ein Asyl e ah en. Die wachsende A bei sma k anspannung ha eben alls einen
s a ken posi i en Ein luss. Die gegenwä ige Ein übung de Konjunk u wi k sich deshalb
nach eilig aus, alle dings kann sich das Bild bei eine konjunk u ellen E holung au g und de
demog a iebeding s eigenden A bei sma k anspannung schnell e besse n. Dann dü en die
E we bs ä igenquo en im Ve gleich zum Basisszena io s eigen. Ein zen ale Be und ü die
In eg a ionspoli ik is , dass Sp achku se nich nu die Sp achen wicklung, sonde n auch die
E we bs ä igenquo en signi ikan s eige n können.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
7
1 In oduc ion
Since he onse o Russia's mili a y agg ession agains Uk aine in Feb ua y 2022, he popula ion
o Uk ainian na ionals in Ge many has su ged om 156,000 o 1,240,000 by he end o 2023
(BAMF, 2024). These people a e en i led o empo a y p o ec ion in Ge many in acco dance wi h
Sec ion 24 o he Residence Ac (Au en hG). Gi en he unce ain u u e and du a ion o he
con lic in Uk aine, he long- e m in en ions and p ospec s o hese e ugees emain unclea .
Ne e heless, as hei du a ion o s ay ex ends, an inc easing numbe o Uk ainians in Ge many
a e conside ing longe o pe manen se lemen (B ücke e al., 2023c; Kosyako a e al., 2023). In
his con ex , he challenges o labou ma ke in eg a ion and social inclusion a e gaining
p ominence, compounded by he humani a ian obliga ion o o e p o ec ion. To acili a e as e
in eg a ion in o he labou ma ke , he Ge man go e nmen has launched ini ia i es collec i ely
e e ed o as "Job Tu bo."1 E ec i e implemen a ion and e alua ion o hese measu es equi e
ealis ic expec a ions abou he po en ial ajec o y o in eg a ion. This epo con ibu es o
o ming hose expec a ions.
Ge many has ex ensi e expe ience in in eg a ing e ugees in o he labou ma ke , pa icula ly
ollowing he signi ican in lux o e ugees in 2015 and 2016, as well as mig an s om Uk aine and
o he o me So ie s a es. This his o ical con ex p o ides aluable insigh s o an icipa ing he
labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees oday. Howe e , he e a e no able di e ences
and simila i ies be ween he cu en Uk ainian e ugees and ea lie g oups o e ugees and
mig an s. Like o he e ugees, Uk ainian e ugees o en a i e poo ly p epa ed o mig a ion and
in eg a ion in o he labou ma ke , ypically lacking Ge man language skills, p o essional
connec ions, and immedia e job oppo uni ies (B ücke e al., 2023a; Kosyako a and Kogan,
2022). Fu he mo e, many a e bu dened wi h psychological s ess and heal h issues s emming
om he wa and hei subsequen ligh (Amb ose i e al., 2021; B ücke e al., 2019, 2023c).
A he same ime, signi ican di e ences dis inguish Uk ainian e ugees om o he g oups.
No ably, a high p opo ion o Uk ainian e ugees a e women, due o bans on mili a y-age men
om lea ing he coun y. Many a i e wi h child en, placing addi ional bu dens on single
pa en s, and hey end o be olde on a e age upon a i al compa ed o o he e ugee g oups
(B ücke e al., 2023a, 2016; Fendel e al., 2023). These demog aphic and amily dynamics can
complica e hei in eg a ion in o he labou ma ke . Howe e , Uk ainian e ugees gene ally
possess a highe a e age le el o educa ion compa ed o o he e ugee g oups (Fendel e al.,
2023), which can acili a e language acquisi ion – a c ucial skill o in eg a ing in o he labou
ma ke and b oade socie y (Kosyako a e al., 2022).
The ins i u ional condi ions o Uk ainian e ugees also di e signi ican ly: hey a e pe mi ed o
wo k immedia ely upon a i al, bypassing he s anda d asylum p ocedu e (Fendel e al., 2023).
Howe e , hei empo a y p o ec ion unde Sec ion 24 o he Residence Ac (Au en hG) is ime-
limi ed, impac ing hei legal s a us and planning ce ain y. This unce ain y can de e
in es men s in coun y-speci ic skills and s able employmen ela ionships. S a ing in June
1 h ps://www.bmas.de/DE/A bei /Mig a ion-und-A bei /Fluch -und-Aysl/Tu bo-zu -A bei sma k in eg a ion- on-
Ge luech e en/ u bo-zu -a bei sma k in eg a ion- on-ge luech e en.h ml h ps://www.bmas.de/DE/A bei /Mig a ion-und-
A bei /Fluch -und-Aysl/Tu bo-zu -A bei sma k in eg a ion- on-Ge luech e en/ u bo-zu -a bei sma k in eg a ion- on-
ge luech e en.h ml
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
8
2022, Uk ainian e ugees became eligible o bene i s unde Ge many's Social Code II
(Bü ge geld) whe e necessa y, ecei ing sligh ly highe a es han hose a ailable o asylum
seeke s.2 This ea ly in eg a ion in o he job cen e suppo s uc u es, likely playing a key ole in
acili a ing hei en y in o he labou ma ke .
The ini ial condi ions in hei coun ies o o igin also signi ican ly in luence e ugees' chances o
in eg a ion. Mos e ugees come om coun ies a ec ed by wa , ci il un es , and pe secu ion,
such as A ghanis an and Sy ia. These condi ions d i e many o seek pe manen esidency in
Ge many (B ücke e al., 2020b, 2023d). In con as , Uk ainians a e no leeing hei go e nmen
bu a e escaping he Russian mili a y agg ession. Many plan o e u n o Uk aine pos -con lic ,
while o he s emain undecided abou whe he o s ay in Ge many o e u n home (B ücke e al.,
2023c). Addi ionally, ansna ional li ing models a e becoming mo e p e alen , a ec ing hei
in eg a ion in o he labou ma ke and o he socie al a eas (Kosyako a e al., 2023).
Agains his backd op, his esea ch epo de elops po en ial scena ios o labou ma ke
in eg a ion o e ugees o e he coming yea s, d awing on da a ega ding e ugees and
popula ions om o me So ie s a es in Ge many. I accoun s o demog aphic cha ac e is ics
such as gende , age, and pa en al s a us, as well as obse able human capi al ac o s including
educa ion, wo k expe ience, and Ge man language p o iciency. The simula ion also conside s
some ins i u ional di e ences, like asylum p ocedu es and esidency s a us, al hough hese a e
subjec o limi a ions. Fu he limi a ions a ise due signi ican a iabili y among g oups,
in luenced by unobse able ac o s such as alues, cul u al a i udes, mo i a ion, and pe sonal
expe iences, also plays a ole in in eg a ion ou comes. Addi ionally, some ins i u ional
amewo ks, such as empo a y p o ec ion unde Sec ion 24 o he Residence Ac and immedia e
inclusion in he SGB II bene i s sys em, lack his o ical p eceden s, limi ing ou abili y o ully
gauge hei impac . Mo eo e , he changing na u e o amewo k condi ions o e ime means
ha he in luence o speci ic ac o s is no cons an . The cu en economic landscape is less
a o able han in he p e ious decade, and p edic ing u u e economic condi ions emains
challenging. The e o e, he simula ions p esen ed in his epo should no be in e p e ed as
o ecas s o p edic ions. Ins ead, hey a e condi ional scena ios based on speci ic, o en
simpli ied, assump ions. The pu pose is no o p edic u u e ou comes bu o explo e plausible
de elopmen s unde a ious assump ions abou e ugee cha ac e is ics and he ins i u ional and
poli ical amewo k condi ions.
The subsequen sec ion le e ages da a om he Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), he in eg a ed
s udies o he IAB-SOEP Mig a ion Sample and IAB-BAMF-SOEP Su ey o Re ugees in Ge many
along wi h he IAB-BIB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Su ey o Re ugees om Uk aine (c . In o box 1). This
sec ion also b ie ly ou lines pa allels and di e ences be ween he popula ions ep esen ed in ou
samples and he Uk ainian e ugees (Sec ion 2). Following his, we de ail he me hodology and
assump ions unde pinning he indi idual simula ions (Sec ion 3). Sec ion 4 p esen s he main
indings om he simula ions, which explo e a ious scena ios based on he skills o he e ugees
and he ins i u ional and in eg a ion policy amewo k. The epo concludes wi h Sec ion 5,
whe e we d aw key conclusions om he indings.
2 Since Janua y 1, 2024, he s anda d bene i a e o basic secu i y o single o single-pa en adul s unde SGB II has been Eu o
563, compa ed o Eu o 460 unde he Asylum Seeke s Bene i s Ac . Howe e , he di e ence in bene i a es is only empo a y -
e ugees wi h a ecognized p o ec ion s a us also ecei e bene i s unde SGB II II.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
15
wo king ull- ime). Howe e , i is impo an o conside hei sho e du a ion o s ay when
e alua ing hese igu es. The employmen a e among Uk ainian e ugees is he lowes a jus 18
pe cen a he ime o he su ey, o which 40 pe cen we e in ull- ime employmen . This lowe
a e is pa icula ly due o hei e y sho leng h o s ay – less han one yea – compa ed o he
o he wo g oups.
In summa y, Uk ainian e ugees show simila i ies o mig an s om he o me So ie Union in
e ms o hei educa ional le els, no ably wi h bo h g oups ha ing compa ably high p opo ions
o indi iduals wi h e ia y educa ion. In e ms o employmen p io o immig a ion, Uk ainian
e ugees esemble e ugees who came o Ge many be o e 2022, as bo h g oups ha e ela i ely
high employmen a es be o e a i ing in Ge many. Addi ionally, like he e ugees who a i ed
be o e 2022, Uk ainian e ugees ypically ha e li le knowledge o Ge man upon a i al, a
common cha ac e is ic o e ugee mig a ion p ocesses. Howe e , Uk ainian e ugees a e
dis inguished by poo e heal h compa ed o he o he wo g oups.
2.3 Ins i u ional and o he amewo k condi ions
The a ious g oups di e no only in hei ini ial condi ions o labou ma ke in eg a ion,
in luenced by amily s a us, gende , age, educa ion le el, language p o iciency, and o he ac o s,
bu also in he ins i u ional and in eg a ion policy condi ions hey ace. As illus a ed in Table 3,
hese condi ions a y signi ican ly be ween e ugees, mig an s om he o me So ie Union, and
Uk ainian e ugees. Key di e ences include esidence s a us, employmen es ic ions, access o
he labou ma ke , esiden ial equi emen s, o he limi a ions on spa ial mobili y, he ex en o
social ans e bene i s in cases o need, access o language cou ses and o he in eg a ion
measu es, as well as job placemen and suppo . These a ia ions can signi ican ly in luence
hei in eg a ion in o he labou ma ke and pa icipa ion in o he socie al a eas, as will be
explo ed in he subsequen discussion.
The asylum p ocedu e is a c i ical ac o o e ugees who a e no di ec ly accep ed by Ge many.
Th oughou he asylum p ocess, e ugees ace conside able unce ain y ega ding hei
p ospec s o emaining in Ge many, which can hinde in es men s in human capi al by he
indi iduals conce ned and in hei employmen by companies. Thus, he du a ion o asylum
p ocedu es can ha e ad e se e ec s on labou ma ke in eg a ion in bo h he medium and long
e m (Åslund e al., 2024; Hainmuelle e al., 2016; H id eld e al., 2020; Kosyako a and B enzel,
2020).
A e comple ion o he asylum p ocedu e, he esul an esidence s a us a ies depending on
whe he an indi idual’s applica ion o p o ec ion is app o ed o i hey a e designa ed as
ole a ed, la en , o obliga ed o lea e he coun y. The du a ion o he igh o eside also a ies
based on he p o ec ion s a us g an ed: hose en i led o asylum and e ugees ecognized unde
he Gene a Re ugee Con en ion a e issued a esidence pe mi o h ee yea s wi h he possibili y
o ex ension, while hose g an ed subsidia y p o ec ion ecei e a one-yea esidence pe mi ha
can be enewed o wo yea s a a ime. Indi iduals unde a na ional depo a ion ban a e g an ed
a esidence igh o a leas one yea . A pe manen se lemen pe mi , which is an unlimi ed
igh o esidence, is achie able a e h ee yea s o hose en i led o asylum and ecognized
e ugees unde he Gene a Con en ion, o a e i e yea s o hose wi h subsidia y p o ec ion
and hose unde a na ional depo a ion ban (§ 9, § 25, pa ag aphs 1-3, § 26 Au en hG).
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
16
Table 3: Ins i u ional and o he amewo k condi ions
Emp y cell
Re ugees 1)
Fo me So ie Union 2)
Uk ainian e ugees 3)
Asylum p ocedu e
Yes
Usually no (depending on he
legal s a us a a i al)
no
Residence s a us
depending on he ou come o he
asylum p ocedu e 4)
depending on he legal s a us
a a i al
Tempo a y p o ec ion
acco ding o § 24
Au en hG
5)
Employmen ban
Absolu e employmen ban 3
mon hs, up o 9 mon hs es ic ed
access o he labou ma ke , since
2024 6 mon hs
6)
Usually no (depending on he
legal s a us a a i al)
no
Residence equi emen s
Yes, om 2016 also o e ugees
wi h ecognized p o ec ion s a us
7)
Usually no (depending on he
legal s a us a a i al)
possible, is no usually
applied when inding
p i a e
accommoda ion
Access o in eg a ion cou ses
and o he BAMF language
p og ams
since 10/2015 o asylum seeke s
wi h good p ospec s o s aying,
a e he end o he asylum
p ocedu e o all
yes (depending on he legal
s a us a a i al)
Yes
Bene i sys em in case o need
ini ially Asylum Seeke s Bene i s
Ac , wi h ecognized p o ec ion
s a us SGB II
usually SGB II (depending on
he legal s a us a a i al)
SGB II
Suppo s uc u e o he
employmen agencies
Employmen agencies o asylum
seeke s, change o legal s a us o
job cen e a e asylum decision
8)
Employmen agencies and
job cen e s as equi ed
Job cen e
No es:
1) Pe sons who ha e applied o asylum in Ge many o ha e been accep ed di ec ly by Ge many on humani a ian g ounds.
2) Pe sons who a i ed as na ionals o he successo s a es o he o me So ie Union (excluding Uk ainian na ionals who
a i ed since 22.02.2022).
3) Uk ainian na ionals who a i ed since 22.02.2022.
4) The g oup includes pe sons who a e s ill in he asylum p ocess, who ha e been g an ed p o ec ion s a us and who a e in
Ge many on a ole a ed, la en o en o ceable obliga ion o lea e he coun y ollowing he ejec ion o p o ec ion s a us.
5) Tempo a y p o ec ion unde Sec ion 24 Au en hG was ini ially alid un il June 2023 and was ex ended un il June 2025.
6) The absolu e employmen ban applies o h ee mon hs a e an asylum applica ion has been submi ed, a e which
employmen du ing he asylum p ocedu e can be pe mi ed by he immig a ion o ices wi h he app o al o he Fede al
Employmen Agency. This es ic ed access o he labou ma ke applied o a maximum o 9 mon hs (pa en s o unde age
child en: 6 mon hs), since 2024 o 6 mon hs.
7) Asylum seeke s a e ini ially assigned a place o esidence and a e gene ally obliged o li e in ecep ion cen e s du ing he
asylum p ocedu e. A e ecogni ion o p o ec ion s a us, esidence mus be aken in he ede al s a e o he place o esidence;
he ede al s a es can also es ic he choice o place o esidence o dis ic s o municipali ies.
8) Du ing he asylum p ocedu e, he employmen agencies a e esponsible, bu con ac is olun a y. Only a e he asylum
decision has been made is he e a change in legal s a us, a which poin he job cen e s a e esponsible o g an ing bene i s
and a he same ime o job placemen and suppo .
Sou ce: Own compila ion.
Since 2013, he legal amewo k go e ning access o he labou ma ke o e ugees in Ge many
has unde gone se e al changes. Ini ially, employmen was en i ely p ohibi ed o asylum seeke s
o he i s 12 mon hs a e hei a i al, bu his wai ing pe iod was educed o h ee mon hs in
all 2014 (G o e, 2018). Du ing he asylum p ocedu e, access o he labou ma ke emained
es ic ed o up o nine mon hs, al hough i could be g an ed by immig a ion o ices wi h
app o al om he Fede al Employmen Agency. This pe iod was u he educed o six mon hs by
he end o 2023.
Requi emen o eside in ecep ion acili ies o sha ed accommoda ions and speci ic esidence
equi emen s es ic spa ial mobili y, hus hinde ing oppo uni ies o labou ma ke in eg a ion
(B ücke e al., 2020a; Ca dozo Sil a e al., 2023). Re ugees a e gene ally equi ed o li e in hese
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
17
acili ies o up o 18 mon hs du ing hei asylum p ocess (six mon hs o pa en s wi h unde age
child en). F om Augus 2015, hey ha e also been subjec o a esidence obliga ion o an
addi ional h ee yea s a e hei p o ec ion s a us is ecognized (Sec ion 12a Residence Ac ).
P o iciency in he Ge man language is c ucial o social pa icipa ion and in eg a ion in o he
labou ma ke (Kosyako a e al., 2022). Un il Oc obe 2015, asylum seeke s we e excluded om
pa icipa ing in in eg a ion cou ses and o he BAMF language p og ams. Since hen, asylum
seeke s om coun ies wi h a high p obabili y o emaining in Ge many ha e been pe mi ed o
pa icipa e in hese cou ses, a policy ha has since been ex ended o all asylum seeke s as well
as hose wi h ecognized p o ec ion and ole a ed s a us. Pa icipa ion in hese cou ses can be
manda o y i hey ecei e bene i s unde he Asylum Seeke s Bene i s Ac (§ 44 Au en hG).
Asylum seeke s a e eligible o bene i s unde he Asylum Seeke s Bene i s Ac , which a e lowe
han hose o he basic income suppo p o ided by he Ge man Social Secu i y Code II
(Bü ge geld). I housed in ecep ion acili ies, bene i s a e p ima ily p o ided as in-kind se ices;
i in p i a e accommoda ion, hey a e mainly gi en as cash bene i s. A e ecogni ion o hei
p o ec ion s a us, he e is a change in legal s a us and e ugees hen ecei e bene i s in
acco dance wi h SGB II i necessa y.
The sys em o bene i p o ision is closely linked o job placemen and suppo . While he
employmen agencies o he Fede al Employmen Agency a e p ima ily esponsible o asylum
seeke s, bene i s a e disbu sed by local au ho i ies. This di ision o en means ha asylum
seeke s a e no in eg a ed in o he placemen and suppo s uc u es o he employmen
agencies and mus ake he ini ia i e o isi hese agencies hemsel es, which is a p ac ical
challenge. Once hei p o ec ion s a us is ecognized, job cen e s ake o e esponsibili y,
he eby ins i u ionally uni ying he g an ing o bene i s, job placemen , and suppo unde one
oo . Empi ical e idence indica es ha placemen and aining se ices a e o en u ilized only
a e he ecogni ion o p o ec ion s a us (based on he IAB-BAMF-SOEP su ey o e ugees).
The popula ion om he o me So ie Union and i s successo s a es a i ed in Ge many
h ough a ious channels, including as e hnic Ge man epa ia es, quo a e ugees, amily
euni ica ion, and labou and educa ional mig a ion, wi h a smalle numbe coming h ough he
asylum sys em (B ücke , 2022; Kal e and Kogan, 2014; Liebau, 2011). These di e se ou es ha e
led o di e en ins i u ional condi ions o esidency and labou ma ke in eg a ion. Typically,
indi iduals om his g oup ecei ed ei he a empo a y esidence pe mi o a pe manen
se lemen pe mi , and e hnic Ge man epa ia es o en ob ained Ge man ci izenship di ec ly.
Unlike o he e ugees, hey gene ally we e no subjec o employmen es ic ions. Howe e ,
e hnic Ge man epa ia es and Jewish quo a e ugees some imes aced a esidence equi emen .
Following he labou ma ke e o ms o 2005, hey we e in eg a ed in o he SGB II bene i s
sys em ( o me ly social assis ance) in he same manne as Ge man na ionals when necessa y and
had access o he employmen agencies’ and job cen e s’ placemen and suppo s uc u es.
In eg a ion cou ses and o he BAMF language p og ams we e also made a ailable o hese
g oups in a manne simila o o he mig an g oups.
Fo Uk ainian e ugees who ha e mo ed o Ge many since Feb ua y 24, 2022, he condi ions
di e due o he g an ing o empo a y p o ec ion unde Sec ion 24 o he Residence Ac
(Au en hG). This egula ion immedia ely g an s hem a igh o esidence wi hou an asylum
p ocedu e, and he Dublin p ocedu e does no apply. They a e allowed o ake up employmen o
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
18
sel -employmen wi hou es ic ions. Al hough his p o ec ion is ime-limi ed – ini ially un il
Ma ch 5, 2024, wi h an ex ension o Ma ch 5, 2025 – i p o ides g ea e legal and planning secu i y
han o hose in he asylum p ocedu e, hough less han o ecognized e ugees o indi iduals
en i led o p o ec ion unde A icle 16a o he Basic Law.
In p inciple, indi iduals ecei ing empo a y p o ec ion unde Sec ion 24 Au en hG a e also
subjec o geog aphical es ic ions when choosing hei place o esidence. Howe e , in p ac ice,
he e is no spa ial dis ibu ion i he indi iduals a e p i a ely accommoda ed wi h iends o
ela i es o ha e ound hei own p i a e accommoda ion. Consequen ly, less han a en h li e in
sha ed accommoda ion immedia ely a e a i al (B ücke e al., 2023a; Kosyako a e al., 2023).
Access o in eg a ion cou ses and o he BAMF language p og ams is open o all hose wi h
empo a y p o ec ion, esul ing in a highe pa icipa ion a e han o o he e ugees (Fendel e
al., 2023). Pa icipa ion in language cou ses also depends on he a ailabili y o p og ams bu is
highe han o o he e ugees a he beginning o hei s ay (B ücke e al., 2023a; Kosyako a e
al., 2023). Since June 2022, hey ha e also ecei ed bene i s unde he Ge man Social Code II
(Bü ge geld), which a e highe han hose p o ided unde he Asylum Seeke s Bene i s Ac . Due
o hei inclusion in he SGB II sys em in June 2022, Uk ainian e ugees a e in eg a ed in o job
cen e s uc u es a an ea ly s age, acili a ing apid access o placemen and suppo se ice.
3 Me hod
The simula ions d aw on a comp ehensi e da abase, which includes da a om he Socio-
Economic Panel, he in eg a ed s udies o he IAB-SOEP Mig a ion Sample, he IAB-BAMF-SOEP
Su ey o Re ugees in Ge many, and he IAB-BIB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Su ey o Re ugees om
Uk aine (In o box 1). The co e o hese simula ions a e eg ession analyses ha model
employmen as a dependen bina y a iable, in luenced by a ange o obse able socio-
demog aphic ac o s along wi h selec ed ins i u ional and economic amewo k condi ions.
Employmen p obabili y models used in his analysis a e weigh ed and based on a p obi model,
wi h s anda d e o s clus e ed a he indi idual le el. The coe icien s de i ed om hese models
(see Table 1) o a ious explana o y a iables a e u ilized o cons uc condi ional scena ios.
These scena ios a e buil upon speci ic assump ions abou he e olu ion o hese ac o s o he
Uk ainian e ugee popula ion in Ge many. By al e ing hese assump ions, he simula ions no
only explo e he po en ial e ec s o di e en in eg a ion policies bu also assess he obus ness
o he esul s ela i e o he assump ions made.
The analyses and subsequen simula ions conside he ollowing explana o y ac o s:
• gende (0 = man; 1 = woman),
• child en in he household (0=no child en unde 17; 1=younges child be ween 0-6;
2=younges child be ween 7-17),
• pa ne in he household (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• age a immig a ion, age a immig a ion squa ed,
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
19
• highes le el o educa ion achie ed (1 = less han p ima y le el, 2 = p ima y le el, lowe
seconda y le el (middle school), 3 = uppe seconda y le el (high school) / pos -seconda y
non- e ia y educa ion, 4 = e ia y educa ion),
• employed be o e immig a ion (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• asylum applica ion on a i al (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• good o e y good heal h a he ime o he su ey (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• language cou se pa icipa ion be o e o a e immig a ion (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• good o e y good Ge man language skills a he ime o he su ey (0 = no; 1 = yes)
• in en ion o s ay in Ge many o e e (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• eas Ge many (0 = no; 1 = yes),
• egional labou ma ke ension ( a io o acancies o unemployed) a he ime o he su ey,
• na ionwide unemploymen a e a he ime o he su ey,
• du a ion o s ay (indica o a iables o 1 o 15 yea s and mo e since mo ing in).
Due o da a limi a ions, i is no possible o p ecisely de e mine he cu en esidence s a us o all
indi iduals in he samples – o example, whe he hey a e in an asylum p ocedu e – as well as
hei pa icipa ion in in eg a ion cou ses, o he language cou ses, and quali ica ion p og ams a
he ime o he su ey. Consequen ly, he simula ions dis inguish whe he a pe son (i) has
mig a ed o Ge many as someone seeking p o ec ion and hus has unde gone an asylum
p ocedu e, o (ii) has comple ed an in eg a ion cou se, oca ional language cou se, o o he
Ge man language cou se be o e o a e mo ing o Ge many. These condi ions a e assumed o be
cons an in he simula ions, while he du a ion o s ay is ea ed as a a iable o e ime.
Ge man language p o iciency is ecognized as a c ucial ac o o success ul labou ma ke
in eg a ion. The e o e, in a sepa a e eg ession, he de elopmen o Ge man language skills o e
ime – o wi h an inc easing leng h o s ay – is es ima ed using he same explana o y a iables as
in he employmen p obabili y eg ession (see abo e) (see Table 2). The coe icien s de i ed om
his analysis a e used o simula e he p og ession o Uk ainian e ugees’ Ge man language skills
h oughou hei s ay in Ge many. These simula ed language skills a e hen applied o model
labou ma ke in eg a ion.
The employmen a es we e simula ed o e a 10-yea pe iod ollowing he in lux. As ou lined in
he in oduc ion, he esul s o hese simula ions should no be iewed as o ecas s. They a e
condi ional scena ios based on s ong assump ions. I is impo an o highligh ha he
ou comes o he simula ions a e highly dependen on he popula ions included in he samples,
pa icula ly o all non-obse able ac o s o ac o s no included in he eg essions. I he
Uk ainian e ugees di e signi ican ly om hese popula ions in e ms o hese unobse able
cha ac e is ics, i could lead o di e gen ends in labou ma ke in eg a ion. Mo eo e , he
es ima ed coe icien s may no emain cons an o e ime. Addi ionally, he ins i u ional
amewo k condi ions di e om all p io his o ical expe iences, which could skew he
simula ion esul s in a ious di ec ions.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
20
4 Simula ion esul s
This sec ion ou lines di e en scena ios o he de elopmen o employmen a es among
Uk ainian e ugees. Ini ially, a baseline scena io is p esen ed, deemed he mos ealis ic based on
he gi en assump ions. This scena io posi s ha language skills will imp o e o e he du a ion o
he s ay. Gi en ha women make up a signi ican po ion o he Uk ainian e ugee popula ion,
he employmen a es a e u he di e en ia ed by gende and amily cons ella ion.
Addi ionally, a ious scena ios a e simula ed o highligh he e ec s o se e al ac o s on
employmen a es. These ac o s include he le el o educa ion, pa icipa ion in Ge man
language cou ses, in ol emen in asylum p ocedu es, heal h s a us, and egional labou ma ke
condi ions. Each scena io is designed o p o ide insigh s in o how hese elemen s migh
in luence he labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees unde di e en condi ions.
4.1 Baseline scena io
Figu e 1 illus a es he simula ed end in employmen a es o Uk ainian e ugees since hei
a i al in Ge many, u ilizing a wo-s age simula ion me hod de ailed in Chap e 4. The p ocess
begins by simula ing he de elopmen o Ge man language skills o e ime o Uk ainian
e ugees. This is based on da a de i ed om e ugees who a i ed be o e 2022 and indi iduals
om he o me So ie Union. Fac o s such as he p esence o child en and a pa ne in he
household, age a a i al, socioeconomic ac o s (including educa ion le el and wo k expe ience
be o e immig a ion), legal s a us a a i al (e.g., asylum applica ion), in en ion o s ay, heal h,
pa icipa ion in language cou ses, as well as he ede al s a e o esidence and he local
economic si ua ion a e all conside ed in es ima ing Ge man language p o iciency. These
a iables e lec he a e age cha ac e is ics o he Uk ainian popula ion in 2023. Subsequen ly,
he p obabili y o employmen is calcula ed, le e aging he simula ed Ge man language skills by
du a ion o s ay and gende . The es ima ion o employmen in eg a es he same obse able
demog aphic ac o s used in he language skills simula ion, in addi ion o he newly acqui ed
language compe encies.
The esul s demons a e a s eady inc ease in employmen a es o Uk ainian e ugees: s a ing
a app oxima ely 8 pe cen in he i s yea o esidence and ising o 45 pe cen a e i e yea s.
In his condi ional scena io, he employmen a e eaches 55 pe cen a decade a e immig a ion.
The dynamics a y by gende : men begin wi h an employmen a e o 15 pe cen in he i s yea
pos -immig a ion, which inc eases o 58 pe cen a e i e yea s and 68 pe cen a e en yea s.
Women s a wi h a lowe ini ial employmen a e o 7 pe cen in he i s yea . Howe e , hei
employmen a es also ise s eadily o e ime, eaching 41 pe cen a e i e yea s and 52 pe cen
en yea s pos -immig a ion. Gi en ha nea ly 80 pe cen o he Uk ainian adul popula ion o
wo king age in Ge many a e women, hei p og ess signi ican ly in luences he o e all a e age
employmen a e.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
21
Figu e 1: Baseline scena io: Simula ion o he employmen a e o Uk ainian e ugees by gende
and du a ion o s ay
Pe cen age o people o wo king age (18 o 64 yea s)
No es: Only people aged be ween 18 and 64 a he ime o he su ey. Gain ully employed pe sons a e all pe sons who ecei e
emune a ion o hei wo k (de ini ion o he Fede al S a is ical O ice). This also includes ainees, in e ns and ma ginally
employed pe sons.
Legend: The expec ed employmen a e o Uk ainian e ugees 10 yea s a e a i al in Ge many is 55 pe cen i he coe icien s
ob ained om he analysis o Ge man language skills and employmen a e used.
Sou ce: Own calcula ions based on da a om SOEP-CORE, IAB-SOEP-MIG, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-REF and IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-
SOEP-UA.
4.2 Family cons ella ions
Gi en ha women hea ily in luence he a e age employmen a e (c . Table 1), Table 4 o e s a
de ailed look a he simula ed employmen a es o Uk ainian e ugees, b oken down by
household composi ion. The e a e no iceable di e ences, in luenced by amily ci cums ances
and whe he he e is a pa ne o unde age child en in he household.
In he i s yea a e hei a i al, men wi hou mino child en li ing wi h hei pa ne ha e an
employmen a e o 24 pe cen , while women in he same si ua ion s a wi h an employmen
a e o 13 pe cen . A e a decade, hese a es inc ease o 79 pe cen o men and 65 pe cen o
women.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
22
Table 4: Simula ed employmen a e o e ugees om Uk aine by child en and pa ne in he
household
Pe cen age o people o wo king age (18 o 64 yea s)
Emp y cellEmp y cell
Leng h o s ay
<= 1 yea
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Families
No child en
M
24
47
60
65
71
74
74
76
76
79
No child en
F
13
30
43
48
55
59
59
61
60
65
Child en 0-6 yea s
M
15
33
46
51
58
62
62
65
64
68
Child en 0-6 yea s
F
7
20
30
35
41
45
45
48
47
51
Child en 6-17
M
23
46
59
64
70
74
73
75
75
78
Child en 6-17
F
12
29
42
47
54
58
58
60
59
64
Single pa en s
Child en 0-6 yea s
M
9
23
34
39
46
50
50
53
52
56
Child en 0-6 yea s
F
4 12 20 24 30 34 33 36 35 39
Child en 6-17
M
15 34 47 52 58 63 62 65 64 68
Child en 6-17 F 7 20 30 35 41 46 46 48 47 52
Single pe son
M
16
35
48
53
59
64
63
66
65
69
Single pe son
F
7
21
31
36
42
47
47
49
48
53
No es: Only people aged be ween 18 and 64 a he ime o he su ey. Gain ully employed pe sons a e all pe sons who ecei e
emune a ion o hei wo k (de ini ion o he Fede al S a is ical O ice). This also includes ainees, in e ns and ma ginally
employed pe sons.
Sou ce: Own calcula ions based on da a om SOEP-CORE, IAB-SOEP-MIG, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-REF and IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-
SOEP-UA.
The p esence o child en aged 0 o 6 signi ican ly al e s employmen dynamics. Men in
households wi h young child en ha e a i s -yea employmen a e o 15 pe cen , which inc eases
o 68 pe cen a e en yea s. Fo women in simila amily si ua ions, he employmen a e s a s
a 7 pe cen , ising o 51 pe cen a e a decade. I he child en a e aged 6 o 17, ini ial
employmen a es a e highe o bo h gende s. In his amily se up, a e en yea s, a es each 78
pe cen o men and 64 pe cen o women. Single-pa en men wi h child en aged 0 o 6 and 6 o
17 begin wi h employmen a es o 9 pe cen and 15 pe cen , espec i ely, which inc ease o 56
pe cen and 68 pe cen a e en yea s. Single-pa en women in hese ca ego ies s a wi h lowe
a es o 4 pe cen and 7 pe cen , espec i ely, achie ing 39 pe cen and 52 pe cen a e a
decade.
Fo single indi iduals wi hou mino child en, he employmen a e o men is 16 pe cen in he
i s yea , ising o 69 pe cen a e en yea s. Women s a a 7 pe cen and each 53 pe cen by
he end o he simula ion pe iod.
These scena ios highligh he c ucial in luence o amily cons ella ions on labou ma ke
in eg a ion, especially pe inen o Uk ainian e ugees, among whom he p opo ion o single
mo he s in Ge many is no ably high a 36 pe cen (B ücke e al., 2023a). They begin wi h
compa a i ely low employmen a es upon a i al and consis en ly lag behind he a es o men
h oughou he simula ion. This dispa i y unde sco es he impo ance o a ge ed suppo
measu es o enhance labou ma ke oppo uni ies o single mo he s, such as childca e se ices,
lexible wo king hou s, and oca ional aining. These in e en ions would help p omo e
economic independence and s abili y o his ulne able g oup.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
23
4.3 Educa ion and aining
Access o he Ge man labou ma ke is signi ican ly in luenced by educa ional and oca ional
quali ica ions (Mülle and Sha i , 1998). In his con ex , Figu e 2 demons a es how labou
ma ke pa icipa ion o Uk ainian e ugees e ol es based on hei educa ion le el. I is e iden
ha highe educa ional quali ica ions a e c ucial o labou ma ke in eg a ion: Indi iduals wi h
e ia y educa ion quali ica ions consis en ly exhibi highe employmen a es, eaching nea ly
60 pe cen a e a decade. Con e sely, Uk ainian e ugees wi h only elemen a y schooling o no
o mal educa ion a all ha e employmen a es sligh ly o e 30 pe cen en yea s a e hei
a i al.
The high a e age le el o educa ion among Uk ainian e ugees p o ides a s ong ounda ion o
success ul in eg a ion in o he Ge man labou ma ke (B ücke e al., 2023a), as u he
illus a ed by o he scena ios. Fo ins ance, a hypo he ical scena io ha assumes an educa ional
s uc u e simila o ha o e ugees who immig a ed be o e 2022 – while main aining he same
condi ions o Uk ainian e ugees in e ms o gende , amily s a us, age, e c. – shows ha he
employmen a es would be only 38 pe cen i e yea s a e immig a ion and 49 pe cen a e en
yea s (c . Figu e 1).
The possession o a p o essional quali ica ion om ab oad is o en insu icien in Ge many,
pa icula ly in egula ed p o essions whe e ecogni ion o o eign quali ica ions is c i ical o
secu ing app op ia e employmen . The ecogni ion o p o essional quali ica ions is key o
b idging in o ma ion gaps in he labou ma ke , hus enhancing labou ma ke in eg a ion
(B ücke e al., 2021; Damelang and Kosyako a, 2021). Empi ical s udies indica e ha ecogni ion
o p o essional quali ica ions can boos he employmen chances o mig an s by up o 25
pe cen age poin s and inc ease hei income by 20 pe cen o e he long e m (B ücke e al.,
2021). The scena ios p esen ed he e sugges ha a ge ed educa ional and aining measu es,
which acili a e he ecogni ion o o eign quali ica ions and enhance educa ional skills, can play
a decisi e ole in accele a ing labou ma ke in eg a ion.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
24
Figu e 2: Simula ed employmen a e o e ugees om Uk aine acco ding o he highes le el o
educa ion a ained be o e immig a ion
Pe cen age o people o wo king age (18 o 64 yea s)
No es: Only people aged be ween 18 and 64 a he ime o he su ey. Gain ully employed pe sons a e all pe sons who ecei e
emune a ion o hei wo k (de ini ion o he Fede al S a is ical O ice). This also includes ainees, in e ns and ma ginally
employed pe sons.
Sou ce: Own calcula ions based on da a om SOEP-CORE, IAB-SOEP-MIG, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-REF and IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-
SOEP-UA.
4.4 Ge man language skills and Ge man language cou ses
Ge man language skills a e c ucial o imp o ing employmen a es. This impo ance is
highligh ed in a coun e ac ual scena io whe e language skills emain cons an a he le el hey
we e upon a i al. Unde his assump ion, while he employmen a e s ill ises o e ime, i only
eaches abou 38 pe cen a e i e yea s and app oxima ely 45 pe cen a e en yea s. This is 7
pe cen age poin s lowe a e i e yea s and 10 pe cen age poin s lowe a e en yea s compa ed
o he baseline scena io, which assumes inc easing Ge man language p o iciency (c . Figu e 3).
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
31
al hough i d opped o 0.30 in 2023. No ably, labou ma ke ension a ies conside ably be ween
he ede al s a es; o example, in 2022, i was 0.1 in Be lin and 0.57 in Ba a ia.3
Figu e 8: Simula ed employmen a e o e ugees om Uk aine acco ding o labou ma ke ension
Pe cen age o people o wo king age (18 o 64 yea s)
No es: Only people aged be ween 18 and 64 a he ime o he su ey. Gain ully employed pe sons a e all pe sons who ecei e
emune a ion o hei wo k (de ini ion o he Fede al S a is ical O ice). This also includes ainees, in e ns and ma ginally
employed pe sons.
Sou ce: Own calcula ions based on da a om SOEP-CORE, IAB-SOEP-MIG, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-REF and IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-
SOEP-UA.
The simula ion esul s demons a e a dis inc inc ease in he employmen a e o e he du a ion
o s ay ac oss all le els o labou ma ke ension, wi h lowe ension alues gene ally co ela ing
wi h a slowe inc ease in he employmen a e. Wi h a high labou ma ke ension (0.66), he
employmen a e in he i s yea a e immig a ion is jus unde 15 pe cen and con inuously
ises o a ound 70 pe cen a e en yea s. In con as , wi h a low labou ma ke ension (0.01),
he employmen a e s a s a only 4 pe cen and eaches abou 40 pe cen en yea s a e
immig a ion.
3 The ede al s a e-speci ic labou ma ke ension was calcula ed using da a om DESTATIS, GENESIS able: 13211-0007
(h ps://www-genesis.des a is.de/genesis//online?ope a ion= able&code=13211-
0007&bypass= ue&le elindex=0&le elid=1715610929324#ab eadc umb).
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32
Two key conclusions ega ding he labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees can be d awn
om hese simula ions: Fi s , he gene al economic si ua ion in Ge many signi ican ly in luences
labou ma ke in eg a ion. The inc ease in labou ma ke ension o e he pas decade has likely
been bene icial o he labou ma ke in eg a ion o e ugees. Al hough he cu en economic
si ua ion emains mo e a o able han in he 2000s, he ecen economic slowdown has
dec eased labou ma ke ension, which is likely o nega i ely a ec he labou ma ke
in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees. Second, egional di e ences a e c ucial. Labou ma ke
ension a ies signi ican ly ac oss egions in Ge many, which subs an ially impac s in eg a ion
oppo uni ies. Unlike o he e ugee g oups, many Uk ainian e ugees we e able o eely choose
hei place o esidence in Ge many (sec ion 2.3). This likely esul ed in a highe p opo ion o
Uk ainian e ugees se ling in p ospe ous egions wi h high labou ma ke ension, hus
acili a ing hei labou ma ke in eg a ion. Howe e , a hi d o Uk ainian e ugees eside in
ede al s a es such as Be lin, B emen, Hambu g, No h Rhine-Wes phalia, and Saxony-Anhal
(Mediendiens -in eg a ion, 2024), whe e labou ma ke ension is signi ican ly lowe han he
na ional a e age (be ween 0.10-0.25), and signi ican egional di e ences in employmen a es
can be expec ed depending on he local labou ma ke si ua ion.
5 Conclusion
Agains he backd op o he ongoing Russian wa o agg ession agains Uk aine and he esul an
signi ican in lux o Uk ainian e ugees in o Ge many, his esea ch epo has simula ed a ious
scena ios o he labou ma ke in eg a ion o his g oup. These simula ions le e age a
comp ehensi e da abase o e ugees who mo ed o Ge many unde di e en his o ical
condi ions and mig an s om he o me So ie Union. The expe iences o hese g oups p o ide
a ounda ion o c ea ing condi ional scena ios o he u u e labou ma ke in eg a ion o
Uk ainian e ugees. This se es wo pu poses: i s ly, o o m expec a ions abou he u u e
ajec o y o labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees based on pas e ugee and
mig a ion episodes; and secondly, o demons a e how a ious ac o s such as amily
cons ella ions, Ge man language skills, educa ion, heal h, ins i u ional amewo k condi ions,
in eg a ion policy measu es, and labou ma ke condi ions can shape he cou se o in eg a ion. I
should be emphasized ha hese condi ional scena ios a e con ingen on speci ic assump ions
and should no be miscons ued as o ecas s. The popula ion o Uk ainian e ugees is ma kedly
di e en om o he g oups due o obse able ac o s like gende , educa ion, aining,
ins i u ional, and economic condi ions. Fu he mo e, nume ous unobse able ac o s o ac o s
such as he Russian wa o agg ession o empo a y p o ec ion in Ge many in luence he
in eg a ion p ocess bu ha e no his o ical p eceden . As a esul , hese ac o s canno be ully
cap u ed in he scena ios, o only impe ec ly.
In ou baseline scena io, which is conside ed he mos likely de elopmen , Uk ainian e ugees
achie e an employmen a e o a ound 45 pe cen wi h a du a ion o s ay o i e yea s, inc easing
o abou 55 pe cen a e en yea s. The gende composi ion along wi h amily cons ella ions,
pa icula ly he high p opo ion o single mo he s in Ge many, nega i ely impac s he
employmen a es compa ed o o he e ugee and mig an g oups in he sample, while he highe
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
33
le els o educa ion and aining ha e bene icial e ec s. The poo e heal h o his g oup
compa ed o o he e ugee g oups also ad e sely a ec s labou ma ke in eg a ion. The esul s
a e also dependen on labou ma ke de elopmen s. Al hough he cu en labou ma ke
si ua ion is much mo e a o able han he a e age o e he sample pe iod, he economic
slowdown has educed labou ma ke ension, which is likely o nega i ely impac labou ma ke
in eg a ion in he sho e m. In he medium o long e m, his si ua ion may quickly imp o e,
pa icula ly agains he backd op o inc easing labou ma ke bo lenecks caused by
demog aphic changes. This would esul in highe employmen a es o Uk ainian e ugees
compa ed o ou baseline scena io.
The po en ial e ec s o he ongoing wa in Uk aine we e no ac o ed in o he baseline scena io.
Compa ed o o he e ugee and mig an g oups, a high p opo ion o Uk ainian e ugees in
Ge many plan o e u n o Uk aine a e he wa ends. E en hough his p opo ion dec eases
wi h inc easing leng h o s ay, i has signi ican implica ions o in es men s in coun y-speci ic
human capi al – such as Ge man language skills, educa ion and u he aining, and ecogni ion
o p o essional quali ica ions – and employmen ela ionships in Ge many. Those g an ed
empo a y p o ec ion unde Sec ion 24 o he Residence Ac ha e been ea ed on pa wi h hose
who ha e no applied o p o ec ion in Ge many.4 Howe e , he legal p ospec s o Uk ainian
e ugees a e mo e unce ain han o o he mig an g oups wi h longe o pe manen esidence
igh s, which can also nega i ely impac in eg a ion.
The a ious o he scena ios in his s udy no only illumina e he connec ions be ween di e en
ac o s and labou ma ke in eg a ion, bu also allow se e al conclusions o be d awn o
in eg a ion policy. One cen al inding is ha amily cons ella ion has a conside able in luence on
labou ma ke in eg a ion, especially gi en he high p opo ion o single mo he s in Ge many
compa ed o o he e ugee and mig an g oups. E ec i e childca e suppo and seamless
in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees’ child en in o he Ge man educa ion sys em a e hus c ucial
ac o s ha no only p omo e he indi idual labou ma ke in eg a ion o mo he s bu also
con ibu e o he long- e m social in eg a ion o he en i e amily.
Impo an insigh s can also be gleaned wi h espec o language suppo . The da a a ailable did
no make i possible o iden i y empo a y lock-in e ec s esul ing om pa icipa ion in language
cou ses. Howe e , key indings p o ide clea indica ions o he long- e m posi i e in luence o
language suppo on labou ma ke in eg a ion. I is e iden ha employmen a es signi ican ly
inc ease as Ge man language p o iciency imp o es. Addi ionally, comple ing Ge man language
cou ses is no only associa ed wi h imp o ed language skills bu also signi ican ly enhances
oppo uni ies in he labou ma ke . These esul s con i m ha a ge ed language suppo
measu es no only imp o e language skills in he sho e m bu can also con ibu e o inc easing
employmen a es in he medium o long e m, he eby educing he eceip o social bene i s.
Uk ainian e ugees ha e a high le el o educa ion and aining, a leas o mally, which gene ally
acili a es labou ma ke in eg a ion. Howe e , i should be no ed ha he educa ion sys ems a e
di e en , and many quali ica ions ob ained in he dual aining sys em in Ge many we e
ob ained a uni e si ies o compa able educa ional ins i u ions in Uk aine. The e o e, he
educa ional con en o en di e s, and human capi al acqui ed in Uk aine is o en di icul o
4 This was no possible in he scena ios because $24 Au en hG was applied o Uk ainian e ugees o he i s ime and he e o e
he e is no his o ical p eceden .
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
34
ans e o he Ge man labou ma ke . Adap a ion quali ica ions, o he u he aining measu es,
o he acquisi ion o educa ional and aining quali ica ions in Ge many a e he e o e o en
necessa y o enable employmen wi h app op ia e quali ica ions. In iew o he high le el o
o mal educa ion, he ecogni ion o hese o eign quali ica ions is also c ucial o educe
unce ain y in he labou ma ke abou he quali ica ions acqui ed in Uk aine.
The s a e o heal h also plays an impo an ole in labou ma ke in eg a ion. Compa ed o o he
e ugee and mig an g oups, Uk ainian e ugees epo a poo e s a e o heal h, which is closely
linked o he sepa a ion om pa ne s, child en, and o he membe s o he nuclea amily. E en i
hese wa - ela ed ci cums ances canno be in luenced by in eg a ion policy, good heal hca e is
likely o ha e a posi i e impac on he labou ma ke in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees.
The simula ion esul s also show ha iling an asylum applica ion and he associa ed asylum
p ocedu es a e nega i ely ela ed o labou ma ke in eg a ion. In his espec , he g an ing o
empo a y p o ec ion and he associa ed acili a ion o access o he labou ma ke is likely o
ha e signi ican ly imp o ed he in eg a ion oppo uni ies o Uk ainian e ugees.
Finally, he economic amewo k condi ions, measu ed in he simula ions by he labou ma ke
ension, play a decisi e ole in he in eg a ion o Uk ainian e ugees. This applies bo h na ionally
and locally. These mac oeconomic de elopmen s can only be in luenced by policy measu es o a
limi ed ex en in he sho e m. Howe e , he indings also sugges ha egional di e ences in
labou ma ke ension can ha e a conside able in luence. P omo ing egional mobili y h ough
labou ma ke policy could he e o e ha e a posi i e impac on he labou ma ke in eg a ion o
Uk ainian e ugees.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
35
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Appendix
Table A1: De e minan s o he p obabili y o employmen
Dependen a iable: paid employmen (employed = 1, no employed = 0)
Emp y cell
A e age ma ginal e ec in
pe cen age poin s
Woman
-14.0***
Child en in he household a he ime o he su ey ( e e ence: no child en unde 17)
Child en be ween 0-6 yea s
-10.1***
Child en be ween 7-17 yea s
-0.5
Pa ne in he household
10.1***
Age a immig a ion
0.5
Age a immig a ion squa ed
-0.0***
Highes le el o educa ion achie ed ( e e ence: less han p ima y le el)
P ima y le el
1.6
Lowe seconda y le el (middle school)
15.3***
Uppe seconda y le el (high school) / pos -seconda y non- e ia y educa ion
18.2***
Te ia y educa ion
18.6***
Employed be o e immig a ion
10.6***
Asylum applica ion on a i al
-8.0***
Good o e y good heal h
9.1***
Pa icipa ed in a language cou se be o e o a e immig a ion
6.0**
Good o e y good Ge man language skills
10.6***
In en ion o s ay ( o e e in Ge many)
0.3
Labou ma ke ension
35.1***
Unemploymen a e
0.2
Eas Ge many
-2.1
Du a ion o s ay ( e e ence: 1 yea o less)
2 yea s
16.6***
3 yea s
27.3***
4 yea s
31.3***
5 yea s
36.7***
6 yea s
40.1***
7 yea s
39.6***
8 yea s
41.8***
9 yea s
41.1***
10 yea s
44.7***
N
51,037
No es: ***, **, * signi ican a he 1-, 5- and 10-pe cen le el. S anda d e o s g ouped a pe son le el. The able shows he
a e age ma ginal e ec s in pe cen age poin s o a mul i a ia e eg ession analysis using he p obi me hod. The dependen
a iable is an indica o a iable ha has a alue o 1 i he pe son is employed and a alue o 0 i he pe son is no employed. All
pe sons who ecei e emune a ion o hei wo k a e employed (de ini ion o he Fede al S a is ical O ice). This also includes
ainees, in e ns and ma ginally employed pe sons. Reg essions also con ol o eg ession cons an , missing alues in he
con ol a iables, and o u he indica o a iables o du a ion o s ay (one indica o each o he 11 h o 30 h yea since
a i al). Only people who we e be ween 18 and 64 yea s old a he ime o he su ey.
Sou ce: Own calcula ions based on da a om SOEP-CORE, IAB-SOEP-MIG, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-REF and IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-
SOEP-UA.
IAB Resea ch Repo 9|2024en
40
Table A2: De e minan s o he p obabili y o ha ing good o e y good Ge man language skills
Dependen a iable: good o e y good Ge man language skills (good o e y good Ge man language skills = 1, poo o
no Ge man language skills = 0)
Emp y cell
A e age ma ginal e ec in
pe cen age poin s
Woman
1.3
Child en in he household a he ime o he su ey ( e e ence: no child en unde 17)
Child en be ween 0-6 yea s
-6.5***
Child en be ween 7-17 yea s
-2.2
Pa ne in he household
-0.0
Age a immig a ion
-3.8***
Age a immig a ion squa ed
0.0***
Highes le el o educa ion achie ed ( e e ence: less han p ima y le el)
P ima y le el
6.1*
Lowe seconda y le el (middle school)
9.5***
Uppe seconda y le el (high school) / pos -seconda y non- e ia y educa ion
10.7***
Te ia y educa ion
18.0***
Employed be o e immig a ion
3.4
Asylum applica ion on a i al
-10.7***
Good o e y good heal h
6.9***
Pa icipa ed in a language cou se be o e o a e immig a ion
4.9**
In en ion o s ay ( o e e in Ge many)
1.1
Labou ma ke ension
-1.5
Unemploymen a e
-0.8
Eas Ge many
6.5***
Du a ion o s ay ( e e ence: 1 yea o less)
2 yea s
14.9***
3 yea s
22.5***
4 yea s
26.2***
5 yea s
29.0***
6 yea s
32.7***
7 yea s
35.2***
8 yea s
35.3***
9 yea s
34.1***
10 yea s
35.7***
N
49,425
No es: ***, **, * signi ican a he 1-, 5- and 10-pe cen le el. S anda d e o s g ouped a pe son le el. The able shows he
a e age ma ginal e ec s in pe cen age poin s o a mul i a ia e eg ession analysis using he p obi me hod. The dependen
a iable is an indica o a iable ha has a alue o 1 i he pe son has e y good o good Ge man language skills and a alue o 0
i he pe son has poo o no Ge man language skills. Reg essions addi ionally con ol o u he indica o a iables o du a ion
o s ay (one indica o each o he 11 h o 30 h yea since mo ing in), eg ession cons an , and missing alues in he con ol
a iables. Only people who we e be ween 18 and 64 yea s old a he ime o he su ey.
Sou ce: Own calcula ions based on da a om SOEP-CORE, IAB-SOEP-MIG, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-REF and IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-
SOEP-UA.
