Hu e e , Man ed; Pepe, Jacopo Ma ia; Schmi z, And ea
Resea ch Repo
Ge man Cen al Asia policy a e he "Zei enwende":
Challenges and oppo uni ies o a s a egic pa ne ship
SWP Commen , No. 35/2024
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Hu e e , Man ed; Pepe, Jacopo Ma ia; Schmi z, And ea (2024) : Ge man Cen al
Asia policy a e he "Zei enwende": Challenges and oppo uni ies o a s a egic pa ne ship, SWP
Commen , No. 35/2024, S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2024C35
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NO.
35
AUGUST 2024
In oduc ion
Ge man Cen al Asia Policy a e
he “Zei enwende”
Challenges and Oppo uni ies o a S a egic Pa ne ship
Man ed Hu e e , Jacopo Ma ia Pepe and And ea Schmi z
Russia’s wa agains Uk aine and he geopoli ical shi s on he Eu asian con inen
ha e b ough Cen al Asia back in o he ocus o Ge many and he EU. Ge many’s
s a egic egional pa ne ship wi h Cen al Asia, which was announced las au umn,
o e s p omising po en ial o coope a ion. Howe e , deepening sec o al coope a ion
is associa ed wi h challenges ha equi e a ealis ic assessmen o he indi idual
a eas o engagemen . P ecise con ex analyses a e essen ial o a oid mispe cep ions
and alse expec a ions. Ge many’s in ol emen should be long- e m and p ima ily
aim o s eng hen he c isis esilience o he Cen al Asian coun ies. A key p e-
equisi e o his is suppo o in a- egional coope a ion, pa icula ly in logis ics,
elec ici y in as uc u e and wa e managemen .
Since 2007, Ge many has played a d i ing
ole in he concep ualiza ion o ela ions
be ween he EU and Cen al Asia – a egion
ha had p e iously been o li le ele ance
o he EU’s ex e nal ela ions. The i s EU
Cen al Asia S a egy was launched ha
yea unde he Ge man Council P esidency.
In 2019, his documen was eplaced by a
new s a egy – also on Ge many’s ini ia-
i e. As a esul o he Russian a ack on
Uk aine and he global uphea als caused by
ha wa , ela ions be ween Cen al Asia
and he EU ha e become mo e impo an –
no only o Eu opeans, bu also o he
coun ies in he egion. The la e ake a
dis anced, neu al s ance in ela ion o he
wa , bu also see Russia’s neo-impe ialism
as a la en h ea o hei own independ-
ence and o e hemsel es as pa ne s wi h-
in he amewo k o a policy ha , like Ge -
many’s, ocuses on economic and poli ical
di e si ica ion.
The 5+1 summi wi h Kazakhs an, Ky -
gyzs an, Tajikis an, Tu kmenis an and
Uzbekis an, which ook place in Be lin in
Sep embe 2023 a he in i a ion o he
Ge man Fede al Chancello , highligh ed
Cen al Asia’s new impo ance o Ge ma-
ny. In a join decla a ion, he coun ies
ag eed o es ablish a s a egic egional pa -
ne ship. This would be Ge many’s i s
s a egic pa ne ship wi h a majo egion,
and i would ocus on ou a eas o ac ion:
• he economy, ene gy, na u al esou ces
• egional coope a ion and esilience
• he en i onmen and clima e
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
2
• ci il socie y con ac s
This decla a ion o in en signals Ge ma-
ny’s special commi men in and o Cen al
Asia. I is o be unde pinned by he ollow-
up mee ing in he 5+1 o ma in As ana,
planned o Sep embe 2024, and by bila -
e al isi s by he Fede al Chancello o
Uzbekis an and Kazakhs an, which will
p ecede he summi .
Ge many’s in ol emen is embedded in
in ensi e e o s o s eng hen ela ions a
EU le el. While be o e 2022 i was p ima -
ily he Commission ha d o e Cen al Asia
policy, ecen ly he Council and he mem-
be s a es ha e been playing a mo e ac i e
ole in shaping ela ions. In June 2023, he
P esiden o he Eu opean Council, Cha les
Michel, me wi h he Cen al Asian p esi-
den s in Ky gyzs an. They ag eed o d aw
up a oadmap o expanded coope a ion,
which was adop ed in Oc obe 2023 a a
mee ing o he 27 EU o eign minis e s wi h
hei Cen al Asian coun e pa s in B us-
sels. In ea ly 2024, he Eu opean Pa liamen
called o an upda e o he 2019 Cen al
Asia S a egy. In addi ion o Ge many, o he
EU membe s a es ha e also become mo e
ac i e in Cen al Asia, pa icula ly F ance,
I aly and Hunga y.
Ge many and he EU a e inc easingly
in e es ed in a egion ha is also acing new
challenges. Russia’s impe ial ambi ions, as
exp essed in he wa agains Uk aine, Mos-
cow’s b eak wi h he Wes and i s g owing
echnological and poli ical compe i ion
wi h China a e h ea ening he ime- es ed
“mul i- ec o al” o eign policy o he Cen-
al Asian s a es, which is gea ed owa ds
maximum au onomy and scope o ac ion.
O he ac o s, in u n, sugges ha he
coun ies in he egion a e g adually ans-
o ming hei (commodi ies-based) econom-
ic model. These include he acu e conse-
quences o clima e change, he issue o
ene gy secu i y and he need o economic,
indus ial and socio-economic de elop-
men . As a esul o hese challenges, in e -
es in close coope a ion wi h he EU, pa -
icula ly wi h Ge many, has also g own on
he Cen al Asian side.
Eu ope’s and he egion’s expec a ions
and p io i ies admi edly do no coincide in
all a eas. Fi s ly, his applies o dealing wi h
he egional powe s Russia and China. Bo h
ha e a majo in luence on poli ical and
economic decisions in Cen al Asia and a e
he p ima y ec o s ha will con inue o
guide egional policy in he u u e. A sec-
ond di e gence conce ns he speed and
dep h o he ene gy ansi ion whe e cli-
ma e policy, economic mode niza ion and
secu i y o ene gy supply en e in o con-
lic . Thi dly, he espec i e expec a ions o
sec o al coope a ion a e unequal. The e is
g ea po en ial he e, bu also a numbe o
obs acles o a physical, in as uc u al,
inancial and poli ical na u e. I is impo -
an o he EU o keep his ini ial si ua ion
in mind when collabo a ing wi h Cen al
Asian pa ne s.
Cen al Asia’s Geopoli ical
Baseline
Maximizing s a egic au onomy has always
been a p io i y o eign policy goal o he
Cen al Asian s a es. This has become e en
mo e impo an wi h Russia’s wa agains
Uk aine. China’s eno mous economic in-
luence, in u n, has s eng hened endea -
ou s o di e si y o eign ela ions in Cen al
Asia. I he Cen al Asian s a es wan o
gain weigh and be hea d in he eme ging
mul ipola wo ld o de , hey mus s eng h-
en hei echnological, indus ial and
geopoli ical independence. This does no
necessa ily imply decoupling om Russia
and China, bu a he sp eading isk
h ough he addi ion (no subs i u ion) o
pa ne s.
In ac , bo h powe s will emain he key
pa ne s o he Cen al Asian s a es o he
o eseeable u u e. The egion emains
closely in e wined wi h Russia, bo h eco-
nomically and poli ically. Kazakhs an,
Ky gyzs an and Tajikis an a e in eg a ed
in o egional o ganiza ions domina ed by
Moscow: he Eu asian Economic Union
(Kazakhs an, Ky gyzs an) and he Collec i e
Secu i y T ea y O ganiza ion (Kazakhs an,
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
3
Ky gyzs an, Tajikis an). Cen al Asia has
become e en mo e impo an o Russia
economically and poli ically since he
la e ’s economic ela ions wi h he Wes
ha e collapsed. This can be seen, o exam-
ple, in he ac ha P esiden Pu in chose
Uzbekis an as he des ina ion o his hi d
s a e isi – a e China and Bela us –
ollowing his inaugu a ion in May 2024. A
he same ime, Moscow has e ec i e means
o exe ing p essu e on Cen al Asia. These
ela e o he anspo links be ween Ka-
zakhs an and Eu ope, which un h ough
Russia, as well as Russia’s impo ance as a
labou ma ke o Cen al Asian gues wo k-
e s. Fu he mo e, Kazakhs an and Uzbeki-
s an in pa icula depend on Russian gas
supplies o mee g owing domes ic demand
and ul il expo obliga ions o China. In
addi ion, Russia will build he i s nuclea
powe plan in Uzbekis an.
To balance Moscow’s in luence, he
s a es in he egion ha e been open o coop-
e a ion wi h China since he la e 1990s. On
he one hand, he People’s Republic is con-
ce ned wi h secu i y and s abili y on i s
Wes e n bo de (especially in he p o ince
o Xinjiang), and on he o he hand wi h
opening up sales ma ke s and secu ing
ene gy impo s as pa o he Bel and Road
Ini ia i e. China’s ade olume wi h he
Cen al Asian s a es inc eased by 27 pe
cen be ween 2022 and 2023. The People’s
Republic is now he mos impo an ading
pa ne o Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an. Un-
like Tu kmenis an, Tajikis an and Ky gyz-
s an, hese wo coun ies ha e a leas
managed o balance ou hei dependence
on China o some ex en h ough economic
ela ions wi h o he coun ies. The People’s
Republic is pa icula ly a ac i e as a pa -
ne o Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an, no
leas because i has been in es ing in he
de elopmen o in as uc u e and he ex-
plo a ion o ossil uels while also supple-
men ing his wi h enewable ene gy p oj-
ec s since 2018.
The ongoing economic dependencies on
Russia, he g owing dominance o Chinese
companies and he inc easing use o Chi-
nese echnology and expe ise also bind he
Cen al Asian s a es poli ically. Agains his
backd op, hei ela ions wi h Ge many
(and he EU) a e in ended o gain mo e eco-
nomic and poli ical nego ia ing powe is-à-
is hei la ge neighbou s. Howe e , ela-
ions wi h o he playe s p esen in he
egion, abo e all Tü kiye, I an and he Gul
S a es, as well as India and Sou h Ko ea,
also ul il he same unc ion. Fo he Cen-
al Asian s a es, main aining dialogue wi h
a b oad spec um o pa ne s is no jus a
means o he end o economic di e si ica-
ion. Ra he , hey a e conce ned wi h p e-
se ing he “mul ipola ” di e si y o he
egion and a oiding he isks o a bipola
bloc o ma ion. Howe e , his also means
ha Cen al Asia is no seeking a p i ileged
ela ionship wi h Ge many and he EU.
Wi h his in mind, Ge man and Eu opean
e o s o win he suppo o egional s a es
o Wes e n sanc ions agains Russia mus
be measu ed agains he eali ies on he
g ound.
This complex ini ial si ua ion mus be
aken in o accoun when implemen ing
he announced egional pa ne ship. This
means i s and o emos ocusing on hose
a eas o ac ion ha a e jus as impo an
o Cen al Asia as hey a e o Ge many.
These include geoeconomic di e si ica ion
– pa icula ly in g een ene gies and indus-
ies, c i ical aw ma e ials and anspo
ou es – and comba ing clima e change.
He e, oo, i is impo an o iden i y in e -
es s ha do no coincide, o ecognize eal-
i ies and o balance expec a ions.
Comba ing Clima e Change
E o s o comba global clima e change and
achie e he goals o he Pa is Ag eemen
a e an impo an a ea o coope a ion be-
ween Ge many, he EU and Cen al Asia.
Wi hin he amewo k o in e na ional
commi men s and Eu opean plans, Ge -
many is s i ing o play a pionee ing ole
he e – bo h in Eu ope and wo ldwide –
and is de eloping an ambi ious o eign
clima e policy. The e ec s o clima e
change a e al eady d ama ic in Cen al
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
4
Asia. Acco ding o he Wo ld Bank, he
egion will be inc easingly exposed o
d ough s and looding, wi h se ious eco-
nomic and social consequences. As else-
whe e, clima e change will exace ba e
exis ing economic and en i onmen al
p oblems, especially he a ailabili y o
wa e , which a ec s he en i e egion.
All Cen al Asian coun ies a e signa o-
ies o he Pa is Ag eemen and ha e an-
nounced deca boniza ion a ge s. They
ha e also been p omo ing enewable ene -
gies since 2018. Mos coun ies in he
egion ha e launched a leas some kind o
g een economy s a egy o p og amme o
inc ease he e iciency o esou ce use and
educe g eenhouse gas emissions. Agains
his backd op, Uzbekis an and Kazakhs an
in pa icula ha e been s epping up hei
e o s o ul il hei na ional commi men s
o se e al yea s. Ge many is al eady in-
ol ing Cen al Asia in global clima e poli-
cy a bila e al and mul ila e al le el –
h ough ini ia i es such as “G een Cen al
Asia” o he aw ma e ials pa ne ship wi h
Kazakhs an and (p ospec i ely) also wi h
Uzbekis an.
Howe e , i is impo an o bea in mind
ha he igh agains ene gy po e y and
o access o ene gy is c ucial in he egion.
Hence, o he ime being, Cen al Asian
decision-make s will p io i ize secu i y o
supply, he p ese a ion o hei own ex-
po -o ien ed and commodi ies-based eco-
nomic model and he di e si ica ion and
expansion o hei own indus ies o e
s ic clima e a ge s and ambi ious plans
o educe emissions.
(Geo)economic Di e si ica ion
Ge many and Cen al Asia sha e a unda-
men al in e es in economic and geoeco-
nomic di e si ica ion o p omo e geopoli i-
cal au onomy and comba clima e change.
Howe e , he e a e also di e gen objec i es
and p ac ical challenges in his ield ha
need o be add essed o Ge many and he
EU o ealize he po en ial o coope a ion.
Oppo uni ies o coope a ion a e pa ic-
ula ly p onounced in g een ene gy and
indus y. Ge many and he EU a e depend-
en on he impo o g een elec ici y and
g een hyd ogen in he medium o long
e m. Cen al Asia, on he o he hand, has
signi ican esou ces o wind and sola
ene gy. Uzbekis an and Kazakhs an in pa -
icula a e planning o sys ema ically
expand he sha e o enewable ene gies.
Coope a ion wi h Ge many, including on
hyd ogen, is al eady aking place in bila -
e al pa ne ships. Deca boniza ion emains
a decla ed goal and a necessi y o he
Cen al Asian s a es. Howe e , a ansi ion
o clean ene gy in he egion is only eal-
is ic in he long e m. The sha e o enew-
able ene gies in he egional ene gy mix is
s ill ex emely low. The op p io i y in Cen-
al Asia is secu ing ossil ene gy supplies
so ha expo obliga ions and ising
domes ic demand can be me . Renewable
ene gies a e being included in he ene gy
mix p ima ily o s eng hen ene gy secu-
i y, acqui e echnology and indus ies and
open up u he expo ma ke s and sec o s.
Howe e , enewable ene gy expansion
equi es he expansion, eac i a ion and
s abili y o he ans egional powe g id
CAPS (Cen al Asian Powe Sys em), as well
as he esolu ion o wa e con lic s. The
CAPS in as uc u e is no only ou da ed,
bu also insu icien ly de eloped and ne -
wo ked. Access o wa e is e y une enly
dis ibu ed in he egion, and esou ce
managemen is inadequa e.
Rega ding c i ical aw ma e ials, Cen al
Asia has signi ican ese es o s a egic
mine als such as manganese, i anium,
coppe , cobal and li hium. Kazakhs an and
Uzbekis an in pa icula ha e eno mous
po en ial he e. Bo h coun ies a e s i ing
o op imize hei ma ke ing and p o i able
coope a ion and a e in e es ed in expand-
ing local e ical in eg a ion and e ine-
men .
Ge many and he EU al eady ha e a aw
ma e ials pa ne ship wi h Kazakhs an, and
B ussels has ag eed o a co esponding
memo andum o unde s anding wi h Uz-
bekis an. Howe e , he e a e hu dles o
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
5
g ea e Ge man and Eu opean in ol emen
in he sec o , such as he s uc u al weak-
nesses o he Ge man and Eu opean mining
indus y and he s ong p esence o o he
ex e nal playe s in Cen al Asian mining.
The same is ue o new g een indus ial
p oduc s such as sola panels, wind u -
bines, elec olyse s and ba e ies o elec ic
ca s. They ha bou g ea po en ial o co-
ope a ion, bu China and o he playe s
(such as he Gul S a es) a e also s ongly
ep esen ed in hese p oduc s in he egion.
In he anspo sec o , he Middle Co -
ido be ween Cen al Asia, China and he
EU, which uns ac oss he Caspian Sea
and he Caucasus, has become pa icula ly
impo an o anspo ing (indus ial)
goods, ossil ene gy esou ces and, in he
long e m, g een ene gy o Eu ope. EU ini-
ia i es such as Global Ga eway, he ag ee-
men be ween Aze baijan, Geo gia and
Kazakhs an o expand he Middle Co ido
and he ag eemen be ween Aze baijan,
Kazakhs an and Uzbekis an o expo g een
elec ici y a e showing ini ial poli ical
success. Howe e , he co ido is unde -
de eloped in e ms o in as uc u e and is
s ill dys unc ional in e ms o logis ics and
a i s. Unde cu en condi ions, an in-
c ease in anscon inen al and egional
anspo olumes – o con aine ans-
po , g een ene gy and hyd ogen (p oduc s)
– would o e load i . This was e iden in
2023, when an inc ease me ely in anscon-
inen al con aine a ic led o a decline in
eigh ansi due o logis ical and in a-
s uc u al bo lenecks. In e es asymme ies
a e also becoming appa en : Ge many
would like o bypass Russia and I an i new
anspo ou es a e opened up, while Cen-
al Asia aims o expand di e se ou es in
all di ec ions. In e es in he Middle Co -
ido also a ies g ea ly wi hin Cen al Asia.
I is pa icula ly impo an o Kazakhs an,
whe eas Uzbekis an is mo e ocused on
de eloping co ido s o A ghanis an and
China.
Whe he and o wha ex en i is possible
o ans o m o e lapping in e es s in he
indi idual sec o s in o coope a ion ha
bene i s all pa ies in ol ed depends on he
espec i e s a egic p io i ies o he ele an
playe s. Mo e han ha , he poli ical dy-
namics in he egion i sel play a decisi e
ole. In a- egional co-ope a ion is pa icu-
la ly impo an in his con ex .
Dynamics o Regional
Co-ope a ion
In e -s a e coope a ion in Cen al Asia was
long o e shadowed by Russia’s hegemonic
policy, which s ill occupies a special posi-
ion in he o me So ie hin e land. How-
e e , he ac ha in a- egional coope a-
ion was no ins i u ionalized mo e s ongly
was also due o he con lic - idden ela ions
be ween he Cen al Asian s a es. This
changed when he new Uzbek P esiden
Sha ka Mi ziyoye ook o ice in 2016. The
de elopmen o egional ela ions gained
speed. Russia’s a ack on Uk aine accele a -
ed he momen um. In July 2022, he i e
Cen al Asian p esiden s me in Cholpon-
A a, Ky gyzs an, whe e hey adop ed a oad-
map o egional coope a ion. Since hen,
he e has been an in ensi ica ion o mee -
ings and consul a ions as well as a emp s
a ins i u ionaliza ion. In Sep embe 2023,
o example, a Coo dina ion Council was
es ablished when he i e s a es held a
summi in he Tajik capi al o Dushanbe.
The main impe us o close coope a ion
comes om he egional hea yweigh s
Uzbekis an and Kazakhs an, which up-
g aded hei bila e al ela ions in Decembe
2022 h ough an alliance ag eemen . On
Uzbekis an’s ini ia i e, he no o ious bo -
de con lic s wi h Tajikis an we e la gely
esol ed and he delimi a ion o he Uzbek-
Ky gyz bo de was inalized.
Howe e , despi e all he p og ess made,
nume ous obs acles con inue o hinde
egional coope a ion. These include he
e y unequal economic de elopmen and
esou ce endowmen s o he i e coun ies,
s ill un esol ed bo de con lic s be ween
Tajikis an and Ky gyzs an, con lic ing in e -
es s in wa e u iliza ion, ongoing connec i -
i y p oblems and ade ba ie s due o di -
e en cus oms sys ems. These ac o s s and
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
6
in he way o he de elopmen o egional
alue chains and hei global in eg a ion,
pa icula ly in he key sec o s o ene gy,
wa e and anspo .
O e all, he in e nal coope a ion p o-
cesses p esen an ambi alen pic u e. An
independen egional iden i y has no ye
eme ged, bu he i e go e nmen s a e
awa e ha inc eased coope a ion wi hin
Cen al Asia is also a p e equisi e o ac ing
wi h a highe p o ile ex e nally. The ac
ha hey a e s i ing o he la e can be
seen in hei endea ou s o appea oge he
in ex e nal ela ions, o example in 5+1
o ma s and a global con e ences.
Recommenda ions o Ac ion o
Ge many’s Cen al Asia Policy
Bo h Ge many and Cen al Asian coun ies
can bene i om a s a egic egional pa -
ne ship. In pa icula , he igh agains
clima e change and (geo)economic di e si-
ica ion in key sec o s such as (g een) ene -
gies, indus ies and echnologies, anspo
and c i ical aw ma e ials o e ideal a eas
o ac ion o u he de elop bila e al ela-
ions and s eng hen in a- egional coope -
a ion.
I is impo an o ecognize ha he
egion o ms a his o ical a ea o connec ion
and compe i ion be ween Asia, con inen al
Eu asia, he Middle Eas and Eu ope, bu is
inc easingly subjec o he geoeconomic
and geopoli ical pull o G ea e Asia. Fo
Ge man-Cen al Asian coope a ion, his
means se ing ealis ic goals and e aining
om excessi e expec a ions. Two ac o s
will con inue o de e mine he cou se o
Cen al Asian leade s in he u u e: he in-
luence o Russia and China and he au ho -
i a ian na u e o he poli ical sys ems in he
i e coun ies. When selec ing pa ne s and
p ojec s, i is he e o e impo an o exam-
ine he con ex in which he espec i e
engagemen akes place. Who a e he ele-
an s akeholde s, and wha in e es s a e
hey pu suing? Who makes he decisions?
Whe e do po en ial con lic s exis , and
wha is hei impac on p ojec design?
Secondly, coope a ion should be guided
by a s a egic ou look. This equi es s am-
ina, ealism and pa ience. Ge many’s and
Eu ope’s scope o a sus ainable impac in
Cen al Asia is limi ed, no only because o
he geog aphical dis ance, bu also because
poli ical and inancial esou ces on he EU
side a e eaching hei limi s. In addi ion,
he e is a mul i ude o ac o s in Cen al
Asia who in luence poli ical decisions. A
long- e m deepening o ela ions equi es
accep ance o he geopoli ical eali y o
Cen al Asia and he egional p io i ies.
Agains his backg ound, he ou a eas o
ac ion ou lined in he join decla a ion on
a egional pa ne ship mus be u he
de eloped concep ually.
Economy, Ene gy, Na u al
Resou ces
Fi s ly, Ge many’s aw ma e ials pa ne -
ship wi h Kazakhs an should be supple-
men ed by a simila pa ne ship wi h
Uzbekis an – a s ep ha could also lead
o he es ablishmen o a ila e al aw
ma e ials, clima e and ene gy pa ne ship.
Howe e , a s a egic en y o Ge man com-
panies in o such a co-ope a ion o ma is
only concei able and sensible i i is
accompanied by poli ical and inancial
ins umen s.
Secondly, gi en he echnical and logis i-
cal bo lenecks wi hin he egion, u he
signi ican in es men s in he physical
in as uc u e along he Middle Co ido
will be necessa y. The ans e o know-
ledge in logis ics and he egula o y, legal,
physical and a i ha moniza ion o logis-
ics se ices mus also be imp o ed. Fo he
co ido o ope a e e icien ly, i would
make sense o es ablish an in e na ional
logis ics conso ium, especially as Ge man
companies ha e ele an expe ise. In addi-
ion o Kazakhs an, he Sou h Caucasus
and Tü kiye should also be included in he
conside a ions.
Howe e , he Middle Co ido will ha dly
bene i local de elopmen i o he Cen al
Asian s a es do no pa icipa e. Ge many
and he EU should he e o e – hi dly –
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
7
wo k owa ds a logis ics union wi hin he
egion, bu abo e all be ween Uzbekis an
and Kazakhs an. The Uzbek-Kazakh indus-
ial and logis ics cen e on he bo de be-
ween he wo coun ies, which has been
p oposed by Uzbekis an’s P esiden Mi zi-
yoye and is due o be buil soon, could
o m he basis o such an unde aking. In
he u u e, his cen e could be used as a
key con ac poin o o e knowledge ans-
e and aining in he ield o in eg a ed
supply chain and c oss-bo de manage-
men . I could also a ou he expansion o
logis ics co ido s o he sou h and eas . Fo
Uzbekis an, his could be an incen i e o
pa icipa e in he Middle Co ido and hus
also coun e ac Russia’s po en ial o ob-
s uc ion.
En i onmen and Clima e
In his sec o , a cons uc i e dialogue has
de eloped be ween he i e Cen al Asian
s a es in ecen yea s, no leas hanks o
he “G een Cen al Asia” p ojec unded by
he Ge man go e nmen . The Cen al Asian
s a es now ace he challenge o pooling
esou ces and c ea ing a las ing balance o
in e es s on he basis o binding legal ag ee-
men s.
The long- e m goal would be o de elop
a Cen al Asian wa e and ene gy commu-
ni y. Ge many’s ole could be o suppo
he exis ing egional dialogue o ma s and
encou age he pa ne s o ake an o e all
iew o he wa e -ene gy nexus. The same
applies o he es ablishmen o ini ial bila -
e al and minila e al o ma s o he man-
agemen o wa e esou ces, which Ge ma-
ny could suppo in an ad iso y unc ion.
The Cen al Asian s a es should also be
suppo ed in mode nizing and ully com-
missioning he CAPS powe g id, as well as
eac i a ing u he in e connec o s wi hin
he egion o s eng hen he esilience o
he egional powe g id. This would also
be a key p e equisi e o he expansion o
g een ene gies and he p oduc ion o
hyd ogen.
Regional Coope a ion and
Resilience
The egional dimension should be s eng h-
ened in all sec o s o coope a ion. The
es ablishmen o a Ge man-Cen al Asian
dialogue would enable he exchange o
expe iences in egional coope a ion and a
be e unde s anding o ede al p inciples
and sha ed so e eign y.
The Cen al Asian s a es’ in e es in co-
ope a ing wi h A ghanis an should also be
used o main ain channels o communica-
ion wi h he Taliban egime. Kazakhs an
and, abo e all, Uzbekis an a e de ac o al-
eady coope a ing wi h he ule s in Kabul
in selec ed a eas, as demons a ed by he
expansion o hei ade ela ions and
Uzbek elec ici y supplies o A ghanis an.
A he same ime, Kazakhs an and Uzbeki-
s an see hemsel es as a possible b idges
be ween he Taliban and he in e na ional
communi y. Uzbekis an in pa icula main-
ains good ela ions wi h coun ies engag-
ing in A ghanis an (such as China and he
Gul S a es) and could u ilize hese con ac s
e en u he o he bene i o he in e na-
ional communi y – o example in ma -
e s o humani a ian aid, bu also ega ding
communica ion wi h he Taliban egime.
Ci il Socie y Con ac s
The ou h a ea o ac ion o he s a egic
egional pa ne ship is ci il socie y coop-
e a ion. I should be p omo ed a all le els.
The cu en ly planned mig a ion ag eemen
o skilled wo ke s om Uzbekis an, he
p omo ion o language acquisi ion and
mo e academic exchange would cons i u e
e ec i e ins umen s. Exhibi ion p ojec s
and o he cul u al policy ini ia i es would
also be ele an .
In addi ion, ies be ween young poli i-
cians in Cen al Asia and Ge many should
be s eng hened. The c oss-pa y exchange
o decision-make s o e ed by he Robe
Bosch Founda ion, o example, as well as
he pa liamen a y exchange and ex e n-
ships p og ammes o ganized by poli ical
ounda ions, could be app op ia e ins u-
SWP Commen 35
Augus 2024
8
men s. Town winning p og ammes could
also be use ul.
Las ly, wi h ega ds o all a eas o ac ion,
Ge many and he EU mus pay mo e poli i-
cal a en ion o he egion, in ensi y coop-
e a ion and accele a e decision-making
p ocesses o make he s a egic pa ne ship
wi h Cen al Asia c edible and u n decla a-
ions o in en in o ac ion. Besides ha , i is
c ucial ha he new EU Commission no
only implemen s echnoc a ic p og ammes,
bu also p o ides long- e m impe us o
he poli ical eo ganiza ion o he a eas o
ac ion. Pa icula ly in anspo /connec i -
i y and he economy, i is ad isable o in e -
link he ac i i ies o he EU and indi idual
membe s a es h ough be e ha moniza-
ion and coo dina ion.
I is in Ge many’s and Eu ope’s in e es
o main ain he posi i e momen um wi h
he Cen al Asian s a es. O he wise, Ge -
many and Eu ope isk losing hei al eady
declining geopoli ical and geoeconomic
in luence in his egion and missing he
oppo uni y o u ilize he Cen al Asian
labo a o y o a new mul ipola wo ld o de
o inc eased in e na ional coope a ion.
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SWP
S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik
Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and
Secu i y A ai s
Ludwigki chpla z 3–4
10719 Be lin
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0
Fax +49 30 880 07-100
www.swp-be lin.o g
[email p o ec ed]
ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2024C35
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 30/2024)
Man ed Hu e e was Ge man Ambassado o Bela us om July 2019 o July 2023 and isi ing ellow in he Eas e n
Eu ope and Eu asia Resea ch Di ision om Sep embe 2023 o July 2024. D Jacopo Ma ia Pepe is a esea che in he
Global Issues Di ision. D And ea Schmi z is a esea che in he Eas e n Eu ope and Eu asia Di ision.
